TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets burned me bad on Sunday, though they beat the Celtics at Boston. The problem was that Houston scored extremely well each of the first 3 quarters but then in the 4th they didn't even total half the amount of points they did in any of the first 3 quarters. The result was a painful bad beat with the over in that situation Sunday and I won't hesitate to come right back with the over here after that was one of the worst beats of the season for sure. The total on this game at Toronto opened up at a 228.5 but has dropped to a 226.5 as of very early Tuesday morning. This is offering us great line value here. The Raptors have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Toronto is off a loss at Detroit where they scored only 107 points. Prior to that poor effort they had scored 118 points or more in 12 of their last 16 games. The Rockets were held to 115 at Boston due to a horrific 4th quarter but Houston entered that game having scored 118 points or more in 9 of their 12 prior games. You can see from these numbers why it is logical to expect this game to get to the mid-230s and yet the posted total has dropped to mid-220s. In terms of technical value, the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Toronto also has revenge here and that is a situation that has seen them go 13-5 to the over this season. The Raptors also are 7-1 to the over this season in their games against Southwest Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVER 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavs are off a game where they shot 30.6% from the field and scored just 81 points. The Nets are off a game where they shot 35.2% from the field and scored only 88 points. That has many looking to the under in this match-up. In typical contrarian fashion, I am looking the other way! Prior to Brooklyn's most recent ugly game, the over was 7-2 in the Nets last 9 games. Also, the Mavericks are on a 3-0 run to the over in their last 3 road games. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 8-3 in the Nets last 11 games against teams with a losing record (Dallas currently 8 games under .500). The over is also an incredible long-term 21-8 (including 8-1 this season) when the Nets face a Southwest Division opponent. More of the same on Monday! 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total offshore yesterday was a 229.5 and now, as of early this morning, the total has dropped down to as low as a 225 in many books. I understand the market perception here as the Celtics are known for their defense but lets not forget this is still a non-conference match-up. I like overs in non-conference match-ups as a general rule because you generally don't see the same defensive intensity you see in, for example, a key divisional battle. The last two meetings between these teams, including the match-up this season in Houston, have each totaled 240 points or more. The Rockets enter this game having averaged 118 points per game their last 13 games. Boston's last two home games have stayed under the total but, prior to this, the Celtics were on a 5-0 run to the over in home games. Also, even including their last 2 games (unders), Boston has allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 11 games overall. Since the All Star break a Celtics offense that had been red hot before the break, has had its share of struggles. However, on Sunday they will take advantage of a Rockets defense that is allowing 111 points per game this season. This is the Celtics 3rd game of their homestand and I look for them to light it up. The Rockets have allowed 114.3 points per game in their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Sunday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Trail Blazers are on a 6-0 ATS run. However, they are off a tight SU loss (at Toronto) in their most recent game. That serves as plenty of motivation here as Portland had entered that game winning 5 straight. Look for the Blazers to resume the winning here. They catch the Hornets off a big road win at Brooklyn. Prior to that win Charlotte had lost 7 of their 9 previous games. The Hornets surely want revenge here as they got thrashed by the Blazers at Portland in January by 31 points. However, the Trail Blazers enter this game fired up after the loss to the Raptors and I don't see them being denied here. They are the vastly superior team to the Hornets and we get line value here since this game is at Charlotte. Lay the short number with the road favorite in this one. 8* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without  Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - This total opened up at a 231 yesterday and now we're seeing numbers as low as 227.5 as of early Friday morning. Great value with the over here as both of these teams love to jack up threes and I am expecting a true "run and gun" affair in this one. These team just met Saturday and that game totaled 232 points. That brought the over to a fantastic 10-3 in Charlotte's games versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Hornets enter this game on an overall 7-3 run to the over in their past 10 games. The Nets are off a high-scoring home loss to Washington and the over is now 6-2 in their past 8 games. Also, the over is 7-2 in Brooklyn's last 9 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets are allowing 113 points per game at home this season and Charlotte is allowing an average of 115 points per game on the road this season. This has the makings of a shootout that should approach 240 points. 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban  Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are healthy and in rhythm again. Even so, their last 3 games have remained under the total. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. This one opened up at a 228 yesterday and has dropped to as low as a 226.5 as of early this morning. Houston has scored an average of 118 points per game in its last 7 road games. Charlotte is off an under versus Golden State but the Hornets entered the Warriors game having gone 6-2 to the over in their 8 prior games. Charlotte has averaged 118 points per game in it last 5 home games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the mid-230s! The Hornets lost by double digits to the defending champs on Monday and they are 9-4 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Each of the Hornets last 3 games have totaled at least 231 points. 3 of Houston's last 4 games have totaled at least 230 points. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are building confidence and that lends itself to a high-scoring game versus the Magic here. New York is off a big win over the Spurs Sunday. The Knicks have now won 2 of their last 3 games and also, New York has gone over the total in 2 of its last 3 home games. The Magic show strong defense to the marketplace as their field goal percentage allowed has been low in recent games. However, Orlando is off a huge upset win at Toronto on Sunday. In other words, this is a flat spot for the Magic as they go from facing the best team in the east to now facing the worst team in the east. Also, the pace for high-scoring games has certainly been there of late for Orlando. In the last 11 Magic games, the average field goal attempts for their opponents has been 92. Also, remember the upset win over the Raptors I just mentioned? The over is 13-3 this season when Orlando is off an outright upset as an underdog! Also, when the Magic are off a win by a double digit margin this season, the over has gone 10-4. As for the Knicks, the over is 2-0 the last two times they've been an underdog to Orlando. I look for another high scoring one here as the Knicks are installed as a sizable home dog here and bring another huge effort. 10* OVER the total in New York

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Sixers are without Joel Embiid right now but this is still a team that is loaded with talent and yet coming off an embarrassing home loss. The 76ers lost to Portland by 15 points on Saturday. In other other words Philly is going to be read to go here. The earliest line on this game had Philadelphia favored by 1.5 points but now they are a dog by 1.5 points. As long-time followers know I love going against line moves like this and the set up here is very strong. Note that the Sixers are 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. As for the Pelicans, if they win this game (by looking at the low number) odds are they get the cover. In other words, outside of a 1-point win, any Charlotte win would also be a cover based on this number. Why is that significant? Because the Pelicans are coming off a win here and they have not followed a SU win with a win and cover after ANY of their last 6 wins! Not only is that 0-6 run working in our favor here (and the Sixers 10-1 run favoring us too) but also note the simple fact that the Pelicans had lost 11 of their last 16 games before beating the Lakers Friday. New Orleans is also 1-6 SU this season when off an upset win as an underdog. From a situational standpoint, this is a great situation filled with value. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are fired up off a loss in which they scored 112 points. That point total may not seem that bad but, keep in mind, Golden State entered that game having averaged 125 points per game their 4 prior home games. Now the Warriors are on the road and ready to run and gun their way to their typical success. I expect the result to be a solid over here at Charlotte. The Hornets have gone over the total in their last 3 games. Also, in home games, Charlotte is on a 4-0 run to the over and has averaged 119.5 points per game in those 4 contests as a host. The Hornets are 5-2 to the over this season against Pacific Division opponents and I look for Charlotte to improve to 8-4 to the  over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Keep in mind, like the Warriors, the Hornets are off an outright loss as a favorite in their Saturday game. As for Golden State, the over is 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record this season. Also, the Warriors are 5-1 to the over this season against Southeast Division opponents and 15-8 to the over in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - The Raptors are off a revenge minded win over the Spurs on Friday. It was a hard-fought game and you know former Spurs Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green wanted that game badly. Now the Raptors have another revenge game here but it is not nearly as motivating as the game against the Spurs was. That said, once again I look for a SU win for the Raptors but a non-covering win just like we saw in the game versus San Antonio on Friday. The fact is that Toronto is known for playing to the level of their competition. The Raptors enter this game having failed to cover 4 straight games. Also, Orlando has covered both match-ups this season and the Magic enter this game with plenty of confidence. That's because Orlando, prior to a tight 1-point home loss to Chicago on Friday, had won and covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Magic are 8-2 ATS in Sunday games this season and also a superb 10-1 ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. Not only are the Raptors off a huge win versus the Spurs, they have a massive game (versus Boston) on deck for Tuesday. From a situational perspective this is a horrible spot for Toronto. Also note that the Raptors are 5-12 ATS this season when off a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* ORLANDO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:35 ET - We're getting line value here with the total dropping from 237.5 yesterday afternoon to 233 this morning. Part of the reason for the line move is the James Harden injury situation. Should he not play here I still am fully comfortable with this play. However, I really would be surprised if the does not go. Facing the Warriors in a huge game and coming off a loss Thursday - so a day of rest in between - look for Harden to go here. For the next two weeks after this game the Rockets will be facing Eastern Conference teams. Truly this is Houston's last big game for awhile. Not only are they facing the World Champs, it is the same team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This is a double revenge spot however for the Warriors as Houston has gotten the best of them in each of the first two meetings this season. The last meeting went over the total and, though it did go to overtime, keep in mind the teams did have 238 at the end of regulation. Look for another wild one Saturday night on ABC. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Rockets games against Pacific Division opponents. I look for the Warriors over to improve to 11-6 this season when they are playing a game with revenge. After losing both regular season match-ups this season, the Warriors are NOT going to take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. So take advantage of the drop on this total and look for a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Golden State 

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #532 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 1:05 ET - The home team has won 8 straight games in this series. Couple that with the fact that this line is a very short number (thanks to Joel Embiid being out) and you have great value with the home side in this match-up. Keep in mind the Sixers also have revenge here from being thoroughly embarrassed at Portland in late December. The 76ers were down 29 points at the half and lost that game by a margin of 34 points. Philly is 24-7 SU at home this season. The Trail Blazers are on a 9-16 ATS run in February games and, prior to their win at Brooklyn Thursday, had lost 5 of their last 7 road games both SU and ATS. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets are a solid 16-8 to the over in their last 24 games. This total opened up at a 220 and has dropped to a 218.5 as of early this morning. We're getting good value here considering that the last two meetings between these teams in Dallas went over the total. Also, in their only meeting so far this season (at Denver) the teams combined for 244 points (and had 143 at the half). Don't be surprised if another shootout erupts tonight as I also like overs when it is the weaker team that is at home. In this case that is the Mavericks of course and, as you would expect, they shoot better when at home. As for Denver, they are one of the top teams in the league and score quite well most nights on anybody anywhere! The over is 10-4 in the Nuggets last 14 games against teams that are allowing an average of 106 or more on the season. The over is 20-10 in Denver's last 30 February games. All signs point to the over improving to 3-0 in the Mavs last 3 games. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Friday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - As of early this morning the Clippers are favored by as little as a point and a half. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is currently in a playoff spot and 5 games above .500 while the Grizzlies are 13 games under .500 and next to last in the Western Conference. The odds makers must be "way off" on this one, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that, as a general rule, and I am going contrarian here and going with the "ugly home dog" theory in this one. In terms of support for this play, Memphis is 3-2 SU (5-0 ATS!) in their last 5 home games. Overall the Grizzlies are on a solid 7-2-1 ATS run. The Clippers are off a SU (and ATS) win and they've been in a pattern of "win one / lose one" for awhile. Also, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, LA has managed only 2 ATS win streaks, each just 3 games. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Clippers had a blowout 134-107 win versus Phoenix before the All Star break and are a long-term 5-11 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 8* MEMPHIS

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets are off a loss at Indiana Monday but held the Pacers to just 99 points. The over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Charlotte is off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. The Magic are off a big road win at New Orleans where they held the Pelicans to 88 points. The over is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times Orlando is off a game in which they held their opponents to 90 points or less. The pacing for an over has certainly been there in recent Magic games as they've allowed their opponents more than 90 field goal attempts in 7 of their last 8 games. Also, Orlando has had at least 90 field goal attempts in 7 of its last 9 games. The Hornets have fared extremely well against the Magic in recent seasons and, before being held to just 32.2% from the field by the Pacers Monday, Charlotte had scored 115 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Orlando's win at New Orleans was an upset win as they were a dog to the Pelicans. That certainly holds significance here as the Magic are a perfect 11-0 to the over when off an outright win as an underdog. That means we have over trending of a combined 22-0 here supporting this play. 10* OVER the total in Orlando

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in the game. Boston won at Philly by 3 points and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and the Sixers win the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of last night's nonsense, you're going to see a HIGHLY motivated Philadelphia team taking the court in New York tonight. While the Knicks have another game tomorrow before the All Star break, this is it for the Sixers. After this game Philly doesn't play again until a full WEEK from Thursday. In other words Philly is going to make this one count and I expect them to take advantage of a very bad, and downtrodden, Knicks team. New York has lost 17 straight games. The last two losses have been tight defeats but 12 of the 15 prior losses in this streaks have all come by 9 or more points. When Philly wins, they generally cover. In fact the Sixers ATS record is 22-3 (88%) in their last 25 SU wins. Per all of the above stats you can see why that if one expects Philly to win SU one can also expect them to win ATS. This game has road rout written all over it and I don't see the 76ers being denied. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - It looks easy to take the Pacers on their home floor here and, of course, that is what many are doing as the early line has gone from -4 to as high as a -5.5 as of early game day morning. Of course you know what happens when something looks easy. Everyone sees a Pacers team that has won 5 straight games and has a 37-19 record on the season and is hosting a Hornets teams that has an overall losing record on the year. It was easy to predict what would happen here in terms of line movement and now I am stepping in on the other side of the move and grabbing the extra value. Charlotte is hell-bent on getting revenge here after they got embarrassed by 25 points in their most recent match-up here at Indiana about 3 weeks ago. Charlotte had won and covered each of their two prior meetings with the Pacers before losing the most recent game 120-95. Look for the Hornets to improve to 10-5 ATS (and SU) against Central Division opponents with an upset win here. However, I am happy to grab the available points as added insurance should they fall short of the upset. Indiana has shot the ball extremely well the last 3 games but it is such a high percentage (55%) it is certainly not sustainable and the Pacers have been held to a combined 43.7% from the field the last two times they've hosted the Hornets. Similar result expected here! 8* CHARLOTTE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this total offshore were as high as a 212.5 in some books. It has since moved down about a bucket from the opener and I like the value here that we're getting in a game where neither team is highly motivated to play much defense. That's because the Cavaliers and Knicks are both in the running for the #1 spot in the NBA draft and are simply playing out the string on very disappointing seasons. I am well aware of the fact that New York has been on a long-term trend of unders and that the Cavs have also been trending under. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one plays out quite loose and high-scoring. Cleveland has allowed 114.6 points per game in their last 11 home games. The over is 11-5 in the Cavaliers last 16 home games. The Knicks are allowing 115.7 points per game in their road games on the season! Both teams have unimpressive offensive production but when defenses are this bad there is going to be plenty of quality looks at the basket. This is especially true in a game that is likely to be played a little "loosey goosey" with very little attention to detail on defense. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in Cavaliers games against Atlantic Division opponents and also the over improves to 4-1 in the rare situation of the Cavs being a favorite in a game. Two bad teams, not a lot of defense, and a shootout breaks out in this one! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Magic are off a huge upset win at Milwaukee last night as they held the Bucks to just 83 points. You know it will be easy for them to now fall flat on the defensive end of the courts as they go from facing one of the best teams in the East to facing a team that is nearly 20 games under .500 on the season. Yes the Hawks are a division rival but it is not much of a rivalry when a team is having an awful season. Atlanta did put up 120 points yesterday against Charlotte but the Hawks, even though they were at home, allowed 129 points. As bad as that sounds it is truly not that unusual. The over is 10-4 in Atlanta's last 14 games and a lot of it has to do with porous defense as well as playing at a fast pace. The Hawks have now allowed an average of 122 points per game their last 14 games. The Magic are favored by a bucket here. So if the Hawks continue to play as they have been for the past month now and allow 122 here and the odds maker is right about the spread (as they so often are) this could be a 122-120 game. That puts us nearly 20 points over the posted number on this game. The total was as high as a 226 with early numbers but has been pushed down to a 223. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move in this one! Prior to yesterday's dominating road win at Milwaukee, the over was actually on a 4-1 run in Orlando's last 5 games away from home. How likely is another "grinder" for the Magic after yesterday's low-scoring win? VERY unlikely! The over is 8-1 this season in Orlando games when the Magic are off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. Look for a shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #544 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - How are good are the Sixers now after all the Tobias Harris trade? Truly, they are quite stacked and they proved that in the win over one of the top teams in the league when they won and covered against the Nuggets on Friday. What was most impressive about the win is that the Sixers Big Four of Harris, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Jimmy Butler averaged only 15.8 points in that game. The bench scored 20 points. So what was the key to victory? The Sixers "forgotten" fifth starter as JJ Redick absolutely "went off" for a season high 34 points and was 6 for 7 from three point land. The way that game played out shows just how dangerous this Philly team can be as they truly have weapons at all 5 positions. The fact that Embiid was battling illness and made just 4 of 17 from the field and yet the 76ers still won and covered says a lot. The scary thing for opponents is that they will likely be even better today as this will be their 2nd game together with Harris as a starter and Boban Marjanovic and Mike Scott coming off the bench. Philadelphia is 22-6 SU at home this season. What about the all important cover? Dating back to late November, Philly has 21 wins and they only failed to cover in 3 of the 21 victories. In other words, when the Sixers win, they almost always get the cash. They're catching the Lakers at the perfect time for a big win as they catch LA off the big upset win at Boston. Los Angeles is still just 12-15 SU on the road this season and when they lose they rarely get the cash! The Lakers have managed the cover in only 3 of their 27 losses this season! This game has home blowout written all over it. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The over is 8-1 in the Spurs last 9 games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams and that includes 4-1 the last 5 times they've met in Utah. The Jazz are a long-term 10-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. In other words, though a big total like this on a game in Utah is quite rare, don't let the big total scare you away from the over. The Spurs have been putting up huge points but can't stop anybody. Also, the Jazz are seeking revenge for a loss at San Antonio in the most recent meeting between these teams. Keep in mind, Utah has been known for some huge shooting performances at home this season and that includes putting up 139 the last time they hosted the Spurs. Also, the over is 12-1 this season in San Antonio's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. As you can see with both of these teams, when big totals are posted on their games, it has proven to be justified nearly every time and I feel strongly that will be the case again here. The desperate Spurs have lost 3 straight games so they're not going to back down here but they'll have to do it with offense because their defense has had plenty of issues of late and that means this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Utah

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Huge total posted on this game but absolutely justified. The Wizards recently had one strong defensive game at home against Indiana. In their other 4 games since January 27th, Washington has allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in all 4 games. The Wizards have allowed an average of 129 points per game in those 4 games. One of those games was at home against the Bucks and the game totaled 246 points. I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. Milwaukee did allow only 94 points in their next game but it certainly wasn't due to a lack of pace! The Bucks hosted the Nets and Brooklyn actually attempted 102 shots from the field but it was simply 'one of those nights' and the Nets made just 32.4% of their shots. While fast pace is expected again here, you can expect the Wizards will shoot very well. Washington has shot 49% from the field their last 4 games and averaged 116.6 points per game their last 5 games. The over is 17-7 this season in Wizards games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:05 ET - The recent match-up history between these teams has trended under and that is the direction many will be looking in this one as a result. However, the way these two have been playing of late and the fact this is a non-conference match-up (generally a little less defensive intensity in those), has me looking for a solid over in this match-up. Both teams are red hot. The Celtics have won 8 of their last 9 games and averaged 116 points per game in doing so. The Thunder have won 7 straight games and they've reached the century mark in each of their last dozen games. In fact, Oklahoma City has averaged 124 points per game in these 12 games. Two of those games did go to OT but if we remove those points for the Thunder they are still averaging, in regulation, 122 points per game those dozen games! The over is 10-2 in those 12 OKC games! The over is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The over is 14-4 this season in Thunder games when they are coming off a non-conference game. The over is 13-5 this season when the Celtics face a team with a winning record. History says under but the current play of these two teams absolutely suggests otherwise. 10* OVER the total in Boston 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers made a huge mistake, right? The first total that popped up on this game was a 231.5 on Friday afternoon. Of course with the history of unders between these teams and the perceived "mistake" the total has been driven down to a 227 as of early Saturday morning. I am happy to jump on the over and grab the added value here. The Bucks are off a very strong defensive effort to get a big win over Toronto, the top team in the East. Milwaukee entered that game having allowed an average of 111.5 points per game in their two prior games. As for the Wizards, they are off a surprisingly strong effort on the defensive end as they held the Pacers to 89 points in their win over Indiana. Prior to that, Washington had allowed 124 points per game in their two prior games. While one could argue that those were on the road, also note that prior to beating Indiana the Wizards allowed 126 points in their most recent home game. Both the Bucks and Wizards have been scoring a ton of points and now coming off big wins that involved huge defensive efforts I expect a letdown on D here and an all-out offensive onslaught in this game to result! Note that the over is 21-12 when Milwaukee is off an upset win as an underdog and that includes 3-1 this season. The Bucks are also on a 29-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-2 to the over this season. The over is 13-5 in Wizards home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Washington is 6-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Wizards are also on a 23-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-1 to the over this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavericks are off a strong scoring effort but fell just short in their loss versus the Raptors Sunday. Dallas is 8-5 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Also, the Mavs are seeking revenge in this games as they lost when they hosted the Knicks earlier this season. As a result, look for Dallas to go hard here and not take their foot off the gas even if they get a big lead. The Mavericks are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. As for New York, they didn't score well in their most recent home game but that was against defensive-minded Miami. Prior to that game the Knicks 4 prior home games saw them average 107.5 points per game. Also, their match-ups with Western Conference opponents are known for being high-scoring. The over is 10-5 this season in New York's non-conference games. Dallas has gone 5-2 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. The Mavericks first game with the Knicks totaled 224 points and I fully expect a similar total to be amassed in the rematch as the situation is ideal for a high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in New York

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - I know these teams have trended under in recent weeks. I am also aware of the fact that recent meetings between these teams each of the last few seasons have trended under the total as well. However, in typical contrarian fashion here, I am backing the over. Of course it is not without plenty of good reason. First off the Bucks have averaged 114.3 points per game in their 3 games against the Pistons this season. As for Detroit, though they struggled in their games at Milwaukee, they have averaged 107 points per game the last two times they've hosted the Bucks. The Pistons made 14 three pointers in their most recent home contest versus the Bucks and, like most teams, perform better on the offensive end when at home. Detroit is also well rested here and the over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Pistons entered a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Detroit's Tuesday games. As for the Bucks, they're fired up off a loss at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 29-14 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one against the Pistons. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #529 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are off of an under but the over was 9-2 in Golden State's 11 prior games. The Pacers enter this game with a record of 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games. The teams combined for 232 points in their most recent meeting in Indiana. The Warriors have been red hot and scoring a ton of points. Golden State is averaging 129 points their last 12 games. If they hit that "average" here and win by 9 as the odds makers are projecting you're talking about a 129-120 game. I am not saying we're going to see 249 points here but I do feel that this number shows we have some great value with playing the over in this match-up. The Pacers have had just one bad game offensively in their last 7 games. In the other 6 games as a host since Christmas, Indiana has averaged 119 points per game. Truly one could make the argument this is going to be a 129 to 119 type of game. The over is 13-7 in Golden State's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Indiana has entered a game off a road loss. They bounce back with a strong performance on the offensive end on their home floor but they aren't going to stop a Warriors team that will go all out in looking to cap a perfect 5-0 road trip. Golden State won't hold back here as they have two off days on deck before facing the Sixers Thursday. Also, the Warriors are seeking revenge for getting swept by the Pacers last season so they won't take their foot off the gas either. 10* OVER the total in Indiana

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Mavericks games have resulted in unders in 5 straight games and 13 of their last 15. So how I am playing this one? Contrarian of course and going over the total but it is with good reason. First off Dallas has looked much better in their last two games since Dennis Smith Jr returned. He and Luka Doncic give the Mavs a powerful 1-2 punch. As for the Raptors, Kawhi Leonard finally came back after 4 games off. Though the Raptors lost that game at Houston they did put up 119 points. With Toronto entering this game off back to back losses and Leonard able to quickly shake the rust off in his first game back, this one is likely to be played at a great pace with plenty of points. The Raptors have averaged 117 points per game in their last 13 games. They are favored by 5 points here. Toronto winning this game by 117-112 certainly would not come as a surprise and that is a full 10 points over the posted total on this game. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over in games against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:05 ET - The Thunder opened up as just a pick'em on their home floor. Of course they quickly became the popular choice of the betting markets on their home floor and the line has already moved their direction as of early Sunday morning. Look for the key to this game to be defense and that is where the Bucks have been the much more impressive team of late. Milwaukee has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 41.9% or less from the field. Conversely, Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to hit 50.1% from the field their last 8 games! While it is true that the Thunder have won 4 straight games they are also just 5-5 their last 10 games. The Bucks have not only won 6 straight games, they've also gone 17-3 their last 20 games. 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #567 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off back to back games where they were held under 100 points. The last 3 times that Miami has entered a game off back to back games where they scored 101 points or less, the Heat are a perfect 3-0 to the over in their next game. Facing a Cavaliers team that is a horrific 9-40 SU this season and allowing 114 points per game is certain to help Miami's offensive production get back on track. Keep in mind, the over is 2-0 this season Heat games versus the Cavs and Miami averaged 117.5 points in those two games. Also, prior to back to back unders for Miami in a pair of low-scoring losses, the Heat were on a 9-4 run to the over. Cleveland is on a 13-4 run to the over in their last 17 games. Also, the Heat are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Miami is also 13-8 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Cleveland is 8-2 to the over this season in Friday games. Also, the Cavaliers are a long-term 51-25 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for Miami to get a big lead in this game and then coast to the win which means a very relaxed game without a lot of intense defense as this game progresses. That should lead to plenty of points and the Heat, off back to back losses, aren't going to slow down here even with a big lead. Take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Yesterday this total was high as a 211.5 when it first was coming up. It's dropped a bucket from there and was already a great value at that number. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Friday 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are in a back to back after hosting the Warriors last night. Washington is 5-2 to the over this season in the second game of a back to back. Also, the Wizards are 7-2 to the over this season in divisional games. They're facing a Magic team that is on a 6-0 run to the over and that was off last night. That said, Orlando is likely to do plenty of "run and gun" in this game as they look to take advantage of a divisional foe that faced the World Champs last night. This should lead to a good pace in this game and I am expecting it to fly over the total. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well during this 6-game over streak. Solid and balanced scoring has also paced the Wizards during their current 9-2 ATS run their last 11 games (including covering vs Golden State last night). That said, both teams are "feeling it" right now and should remain hot in this one. The over is 15-8 this season in Wizards games in which they are an underdog. Also, the over is 7-2 in the last 9 Magic home games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Orlando

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Thursday 8* Washington Wizards (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors have been playing great but this line is up to as high as a 10.5 after opening up at a 9 and Golden State has a much tougher game on deck (at Boston) next. Keep in mind, the Warriors very nearly ended up meeting the Celtics in last year's NBA Finals and Boston is still a threat again this year. Of course Washington is not perceived as a threat to go too far this year but, make no mistake about it, they are playing good basketball right now. That said, the Wizards confidence is growing with each win and that makes for a dangerous dog in a spot like this. That is especially true when a team is catching double digits like the Wizards are here. Note that Washington is 8-2 ATS (and 7-3 SU!) in their last 10 games. The Warriors, as hot as they've been SU, are still on a long-term unimpressive 7-9 ATS run. Golden State enters this game off B2B covers but they are 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS (and SU!) in a home game with a posted total of 230 or more points. 8* WASHINGTON

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Anthony Davis is still out for the Pelicans. While the first two games he missed both resulted in unders I expect that trend to reverse here. Davis is one of the top defensive big men in the league and his absence will have the Thunder attacking the rim early and often in this one. Oklahoma City has been on a scoring tear and they love to play run and gun so I also don't expect too much of a concern from the Thunder in terms of paying attention to defense on the other end of the floor. In other words, this one results in a high-scoring shootout. The over is 5-2 this season when New Orleans is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the over is 7-1 in OKC's last 8 games overall. Though this total may seem too big, note that the Thunder are 10-3 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Oklahoma City did lose at New Orleans last month so they are seeking revenge here and they are the healthier team (since Davis is out). That being the case, and catching the Pelicans in a back to back, I have no doubt that the Thunder will employ a game plan of running N.O. up and down the court all game long. Also, since it is a revenge game, OKC won't take their foot off the gas either and that means a ton of points scored in this one. Also, the Thunder have two off days on deck after this game so there is no holding back in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #548 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers got blasted at San Antonio on December 17th when the Spurs caught Philly in the 2nd night of a back to back and, of course, away from home. This situation is much different now with the 76ers at home and having not had any back to backs recently plus not having any games on deck again until Saturday when a Western road swing begins. Philadelphia, in fact, will not be at home again for nearly two weeks to tonight they certainly want to "make this one count" and I foresee them getting payback at home. Finally Joel Embiid is not even listed on the injury report plus Jimmy Butler (wrist) was at practice yesterday. Ben Simmons (illness) was not but I don't see him missing this game with two full off days on deck after this. Look for the training staff to have Simmons ready to go here and it should be "all hands on deck" for Philly. Note that 76ers head coach Brett Brown and assistant coach Monty Williams both worked for the Spurs prior to coming to Philadelphia. Brown logged 11 seasons as an assistant coach under Popovich from 2002 to 2013. Williams not only played for the Spurs from 1996 to 1998, he also later served as vice president of basketball operations from 2016 to 2018 in San Antonio. The point is that there is plenty of incentive here for both the players and coaches to respond after that embarrassing loss in mid-December in SA. The Spurs enter this game on a 2-5 SU (and ATS) run. The Sixers are 28-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The 76ers also are 31-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Kawhi Leonard is expected to rest tonight since the Raptors are in the 2nd game of a back to back. Leonard has multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards. Toronto is 6-3 to the over this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. The Raptors are also 7-3 to the over this season when they are an underdog. When Toronto enters a game having played each of their three prior games at home they are 3-0 to the over this season. Also, the Raptors are 13-4 to the over this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of three or more games. The Pacers have mostly trended under this season but that trend has started to turn around in recent weeks. Also, Indiana is 4-2 to the over this season when they enter a game with 2 or more days of rest. The Pacers are also 8-4 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Toronto has averaged 118 points per game their last 11 games. Indiana has averaged 117 points per game their last 12 games. The Raptors are 7-4 to the over during this stretch and the Pacers are 9-3 to the over during this stretch. More of the same in this one early Wednesday evening. 8* OVER the total in Indiana

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are off a win at Utah last night that stayed under the total. Of course Jazz games are known for trending toward being lower scoring match-ups. However Portland was on a 5-1 run to the over entering last night's contest and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume at Oklahoma City tonight. Why? Because the Thunder certainly have been in run and gun mode for an extended stretch. With their big win at New York yesterday afternoon, OKC is on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Thunder are on a 13-6 run to the over this season as a home favorite. With this game played at a good pace and with some weary legs on defense considering this is a back to back spot, look for little resistance from the D for long stretches in this one. The recent over trending of both teams resumes in this one Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #524 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off a tough last-second loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Conversely, the Rockets are off an OT win and that was preceded by an OT loss. Look for Philly to take advantage of a Houston team that may not have a lot left in the tank after their big OT win over the Lakers Saturday. Additionally, the Sixers have been playing much better defense of late in comparison with the Rockets. Philadelphia has allowed just 41.5% from the field in their last 4 games. Houston has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play in their last 3 games. The Rockets have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! Also, Houston is still without Chris Paul and Clint Capela. As of early this morning Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the Sixers but it is with right wrist soreness and I expect he'll be upgraded to probable after this morning's shootaround. Also, 76ers big man Joel Embiid is probable with his continuing back issues. On that note, it has helped Philly that they haven't had any back to back situations recently and won't have one again until mid-February. The healthier team, the more rested team, the home team, and looking for revenge for losing last year's contest here versus the Rockets by a single point...all signs point to Philly getting a solid home win in this one. Houston is 1-6 ATS after a game in which they scored 130 points or more this season. The 76ers are 27-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and also 30-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. All Sixers in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Monday 8* New York Knicks (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 12:35 ET - The Thunder are off a dramatic last second win at Philadelphia Saturday. Also, Oklahoma City has a huge home game on deck tomorrow with division rival Portland. It would be very easy for OKC to look right past a 10-34 Knicks team and that will prove to be a mistake. New York has been playing better and has had 3 full days off since losing by just a single point to the Wizards in London. In fact, this will be just the 2nd game for the Knicks since the 13th. To say the least, they'll have the fresher legs in this match-up. Also, New York is on a 5-2 ATS run as they have been more competitive of late. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City was on a 1-5 SU and ATS run prior to the late win over the 76ers Saturday. Also, the home team is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Grab the big points with the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:05 ET - The Timberwolves are playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 15-7 this season. The Suns are in a tough back to back spot as they were at Charlotte yesterday where they got crushed and allowed 135 points. This is nothing new as it has been a miserable season for Phoenix and they've allowed 121 points per game in their last 6 road games. The Wolves need a huge win to bounce back after back to back losses and with the Suns putting up little resistance, Minnesota can essentially name the score here. It will be a high-scoring win (likely by double digits as you can see with the big line posted on this game) for the Wolves in a run and gun type game. The over is 14-2 in the Timberwolves last 16 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers Joel Embiid is again on the injury report here as he continues to deal with a sore back. However, he got better in the 2nd half of Philadelphia's dominating win at Indiana on Thursday. The fact is I really don't see Embiid missing much time again until back to back type situations crop up again for Philly and that is not until mid-February. He should be ready to go here and, either way, I like the small number we're getting on the 76ers in this one as they are on their floor and hosting a Thunder team that is stuck in a slump. Oklahoma City has lost 5 of its last 6 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 9 games. Also, the Sixers defense has kicked into high gear in its last 3 games. As for OKC, their defense has been atrocious over their last 4 games. Additionally, the Thunder are a long-term 3-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. This season Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS after a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a long-term 69-40 ATS in home games. Additionally, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, Philly is 27-10 ATS. When past the midway point of a season and facing a team that scores 106 points or more per game, the 76ers are 30-8 ATS. Look for a home rout in this day game Saturday. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Heat just got blasted by 38 points on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Pistons are off a dramatic overtime win versus the Magic on Wednesday. Set ups simply don't get much better than this. Miami is angry and ready to bounce back and all the stuff you're reading about guys saying stuff complaining about playing time will be turned into positive aggressive energy in this game. When you get embarrassed like the Heat players did on Tuesday against the Bucks, you respond! Also, the Pistons are only 2 games over .500 at home this season. It is not a huge edge for Detroit to be at home. Additionally, the Heat have been a better team on the road than at home this season and do have a winning record away from Miami. The Pistons were 3-10 SU in their 13 games prior to the OT win over the Magic. The Heat were 10-4 SU in their 14 games prior to getting blasted by the Bucks. Also, Miami is 6-1 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season and also a superb 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pistons are 14-24 ATS (including 5-8 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams and that streak adds another W on Friday! 10* MIAMI 

TNT Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Early movement was on Indiana here as the Pacers (15-5 SU in home games) opened up as only a 2.5 points favorite over a 76ers team that is 10-12 SU in road games this season. It's easy, right folks? Ladies and gentlemen, it is never easy in this business and this is precisely the type of situation I look for. Looks like easy money on the small home favorite an you know what usually happens when something looks easy in this business! The fact is that the 76ers are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are also seeking revenge for a home loss versus the Pacers last month. That game in fact marked the 3rd straight time in this series that the road team has won and covered. Look for that streak to make it 4-0 here! The Sixers are an incredible 29-8 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is also 33-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Pacers are just 2-5 ATS their last 7 games. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks @ 3:05 ET at O2 Arena in London, England - This total has gone from as low as a 225 to as high as a 228 and is now offering great value with the under. If you look at the history of NBA regular season games played overseas, you rarely see any games getting into totals this lofty. Keep in mind the players have been involved in lengthy travel, sightseeing, etc and are now playing in an unfamiliar arena and in an unfamiliar setting. It is not the type of situation that will tend to bring out the best in shooting ability. That said, I am well aware of the fact that the Wizards have been scorching the nets of late with hot shooting but, the point is, that is unlikely to continue today. Also, the Knicks are without one of their top scorers Enes Kanter and the Wizards are inching closer toward being a legitimate threat at sneaking into the playoff picture. The point is that Washington is not opposed to playing a little defense as they are seeing how important each victory is becoming. New York has averaged only 103.6 points per game their last 13 games. So lets say the odds makers are correct and Wizards win this game by 7. That means you're looking at a 111 to 104 type came here which is still under the posted total on this game by double digits. I just don't see this game getting to the lofty total that has been set when you consider all factors on this one. Also, each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. Washington has stayed under the total in 3 of 4 this season when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. The Knicks have stayed under the total in 6 of 9 this season when off a divisional game. 8* UNDER

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Now that we are past the midway point of the season teams are certainly already beginning to look at the playoff picture. That said, both these teams are just outside the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and this game carries plenty of extra meaning as a result. This situation favors the Magic. We're able to get a handful of points with Orlando and they were at home and have had two days off and are playing with plenty of confidence after beating the Rockets and Celtics in their last two games. Conversely, the Pistons are playing their first game back East after a long road trip out west and Detroit has had only one day off between games. From a technical standpoint, note that the Pistons are a poor 4-9 SU and ATS when off a non-conference game. The Magic are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The road dog stays hot in this one and, should they fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket. 10* ORLANDO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers Jimmy Butler is facing his former team and Philly will take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is hurting. Minnesota will be, at the very least, hobbled in this one but could also be short-handed. The problem is a cluster injury situation as both injuries are at the point guard position. Starting PG Jeff Teague and veteran PG Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Keep in mind that the Wolves are an ugly 6-15 SU on the road this season while Philadelphia is a stellar 18-4 SU in home game this season. That said, a Sixers home victory is quite likely but what about the all-important spread factor? It should get there for us! 16 of Minny's last 20 losses have come by a margin of at least a half dozen points! Also, note that Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The 76ers are off a tight win at New York but are 8-2 SU and ATS when off a divisional game this season. Also, the Sixers are a long-term 22-11 SU (and 21-12 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Look for a home blowout here! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics have a big game at home with Toronto on deck for Wednesday. However, there is no way they're looking past this game. That's because this is the finale of a 3-game road trip that has seen Boston go winless so far. The Celtics are hungry for a win and the Nets should provide the perfect punching bag for Boston to take out their frustrations after back to back losses at Miami and Orlando. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets enter this game having won 4 of their last 6 games. However, Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Also, the Nets are just 4-7 ATS this season when off a road loss and they just got smashed at Toronto Friday. Also, Brooklyn has a long history of struggles versus the Celtics and the Nets are on a long losing streak versus Boston. If Kyrie Irving (questionable) does not play tonight, Terry Dozier will get the start and he has played better as a starter compared to when coming off the bench. Either way the Celtics are a much more stacked team in comparison with the Nets. Brooklyn has lost 13 of 19 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Celtics respond big off back to back losses here. 10* BOSTON

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Once again the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for this game and, hopefully, unlike Friday that will not change before game time and burn me. But either way, I look for the Bucks (Greek Freak or not) to have their foot firmly on the gas from the opening tip all the way to the final horn in this one. Milwaukee is off a loss at Washington and will take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the league here. Of course that is why they are a double digit favorite but I don't like laying double digits on the road in the NBA and also feel Atlanta (off a big road win) will be able to stay hot and put up plenty of points in this one as they are back on their home floor. Of course at first glance this total looked a little on the high side when it opened up. This has caused the markets to move it down some and in typical contrarian fashion I am taking advantage of the additional value on the high side of this one. The fact is that the odds makers set this total big for a reason and I concur because the Bucks are going to push the tempo all game long and look to put a white-washing on the Hawks. The over is 26-15 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. The over is 13-8 in Bucks Sunday games. The over is a long-term 29-17 in Hawks games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 1:05 ET - On Thursday I lost my play going again the Wizards with the Bucks for two reasons. One big one was that Giannis Antetokounmpo went from being probable for that game to being out. Tough break for us. But even with him missing the game, Washington only won that game because they made a ridiculous 54.5% of their threes as they knocked down 18 of 33.  The Wizards outscored Milwaukee by 15 points from beyond the arc and that was the difference in the win and in the cover. I'll get payback here because Washington can't keep shooting like this. They have not done this all season long and they now face a Raptors team that is playing what is just one of two games they have between the 8th and 16th. In other words, Toronto will be fully focused here and is also well-rested. That is bad news for a Wizards team that has been playing "over their heads" of late and is set to come back down to earth today. Washington, courtesy of winning 5 of their last 7 games, has the full attention of the Raptors. With Toronto being the best team in the East this season, I expect nothing less than a road rout here. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Wizards. Washington is only 7-12 ATS in games against teams with winning record this season. 8* TORONTO

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 3:35 ET - The Clippers are off a blowout loss at Denver but previously were on an 8-2 ATS run. Now facing the slumping Pistons at home should allow the Clippers to get right back on track. Detroit did win at Los Angeles last season so the Clips also have some extra motivation but truly they don't even need that extra incentive considering they are off the bad loss to the Nuggets. The Pistons enter this game on a 2-9 SU and ATS run and they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field. In fact the composite of those three games was a field goal allowance rate of 54% for Detroit. Of course that kind of defense is not going to get the job done and that is particularly true when the opponent (in this case the Clippers) has held their last two opponents at home to 40% or less from the floor. Detroit is 2-9 ATS when off a non-conference game. Los Angeles is a superb 17-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Also, the Clippers are 11-3 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Clips take advantage of facing a struggling foe and this is something they've been doing all season long. LA is 12-3 SU (and 11-4 ATS) this season in games against teams with a losing record. Another home rout is in the offing here. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks are a red hot 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and they're certainly not going to slow down here. Being on the road is helping Milwaukee to stay focused and up next is a game at Atlanta so certainly there is no lookahead here. The Bucks also have extra motivation because the Wizards won the most recent meeting and that game was on Milwaukee's home floor. In fact, road dominance has been the theme in recent meetings between these foes as the away team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here since the typical "home factor" is factored into this line even though there has been no home court edge in recent meetings between these teams. The Wizards are off a ridiculously strong shooting performance against the Sixers in their most recent game. Off that huge upset win they'll fall flat here and the Bucks have too much talent and will pull away big as this game goes on and win it by double digits. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU and ATS in Friday night games this season. Washington is 0-9 SU (and 1-8 ATS) in Friday night games this season. Also, the Wizards are 1-5 SU and ATS this season against Central Division opponents. Last but not least, Washington is a poor 1-4 ATS this season when off an upset win as an underdog. 10* MILWAUKEE

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are such a small favorite here (-2) as of early game day morning, I would recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Even though this is a back to back spot for Boston, any concern about that is mitigated by the fact that last night's home win versus Miami was a blowout victory that allowed guys plenty of rest. There was not a single Celtic that played more than 29 minutes and most played 24 minutes or less. Since the calendar turned the page to 2019, Boston appears refocused and rejuvenated. With last night's win over the Pacers, the Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the new year and I fully expect their run to continue tonight. The Heat are on an 0-3 ATS run and we have a big coaching edge here with Boston's Brad Stevens over Miami's Erick Spoelstra. The Celtics, surprisingly, have suffered a tight loss in each of their last two games against the Heat - once in Boston and once in Miami. That said, payback is on order here! The Celtics are on a 21-9 SU run (and 19-11 ATS) in January games. Keep in mind too, the Atlantic Division is much stronger than the Southeast Division. The Heat are a 19-28 SU against Atlantic Division opponents while the Celtics are 33-16 SU against Southeast Division opponents. That includes Miami 2-4 SU this season and Boston 4-2 SU this season respectively. In a game where it is basically a matter of "pick the winner" with no spread involved I am grabbing the surging Celtics as the Heat drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games while road team stays perfect in the New Year! 10* BOSTON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - First off just want to mention this line, as of very early Wednesday morning, currently has the Bucks as a 1 to 1.5 point favorite. However for as low as nickel more (-115 price range) you can play Milwaukee on the money line just to get the SU win which is certainly what I would recommend doing for those of you with access to it. The Rockets are in a flat spot here as Houston just knocked off the Western Conference leading Nuggets on Monday. They did that thanks to hitting a ridiculous 22 of 47 three-pointers. Denver actually won the battle of the boards in that game and had 17 more shots from the field for the game but Houston simply hit a ridiculously high percentage of threes. That is unlikely to be repeated and, keep in mind, this is a Rockets backcourt that is still without Chris Paul and Eric Gordon. The hungry Bucks (lost both games versus Houston last season) will take advantage for the big road win. Both these teams give up a lot of points but note that Milwaukee is 21-8 SU this season against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. The Rockets are only 14-14 SU this season with that same parameter. Why expect Houston's shooting to go flat here? They are 4-8 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 26-8 SU in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. 10* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Last night the Nuggets saw the Rockets hit a ridiculously high percentage of their 3-points as Houston went 22 of 47 from downtown while Denver only made 7 of 29 from beyond the arc. That said, the team with the best record in the Western Conference went down in flames despite outrebounding the Rockets by double digits and despite having 17 more field goal attempts in the game. When you get outscored by 45 from three point land it is hard to win. Suffice to say that is not happening again tonight and I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce right back. The Nuggets were 16-4 SU in their 20 games prior to last night's loss by a dozen points. Denver now visits a Miami team that is only 3-3 SU their last 6 games and has covered only 2 of the 6 games. The Heat play in the weaker Eastern Conference and the particularly weak Southeast Division. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS in Tuesday games this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in Tuesday games this season and tonight they will improve to 5-2 SU and ATS in games against Southeast Division opponents. 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are surging and have won 4 straight games and 12 of their last 15. In terms of their ATS run it is even better as San Antonio is 13-2 ATS their last 15 games. The Pistons are certainly going the opposite direction as they are 4-13 SU since December 2nd. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 2-7 ATS run. That said, the Pistons aren't just losing they're also failing to cover and there is no questioning the Spurs motivation here. They were held to just 79 points in a loss at Detroit last season. As for the Pistons, they've been having trouble with slow starts in games but then fixed that by surging ahead early and leading Utah by 18 points in their most recent game. However, thanks to turnovers and overall poor play (a recurring them for Detroit), they blew the lead and lost to the Jazz. The fact is that the Pistons are a fragile team right now and facing a Spurs team that is firing on all cylinders certainly isn't going to help matters. Take advantage of the small line here and the lay the short number with SA on the road in this one. San Antonio is 4-1 SU and ATS this season after playing each of their 3 prior games at home. Look for the Spurs to improve to 10-5 ATS this season when off a win by a double digit margin. The Pistons drop to 2-7 ATS on the season when off a non-conference game as Detroit's 10-20 SU run in January games adds another loss to the ledger. Spurs get payback for ugly loss here last year. 10* SAN ANTONIO

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Raptors embarrassed the hell out of me at San Antonio on Thursday but sometimes in this business one can be dead wrong and that was the case with me when Toronto faced the Spurs. However, the Raptors look like a live dog in this spot. Yes I am aware of the continuing Kyle Lowry injury situation. However, the Raptors have now lost 3 straight against the Bucks, including both meetings this season, and it is absolutely payback time here. Milwaukee is in a back to back spot here and has gone 2-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Bucks are a poor 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they were off a game in which they scored 130 or more points. The Raptors are 4-1 SU this season in Saturday games. Toronto is 3-1 SU when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Raptors are 6-3 SU when playing with revenge this season but that includes not faring well against the Bucks this season. In other words, payback time here in a big way and I like having the points in a game the Raptors are bound and determined to win and do have a rest edge. 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - We're getting to the point in the season where you're going to see trends start to reverse. The NBA season is almost at it's mid-point and this is the time of the season where it is a good idea to take a look at teams that have under-achieved at the betting window but that are playing better of late. I especially like to look for those teams when they're facing a team that has over-achieved at the betting window and also when I can have my team as a sizable underdog. That is the case here because, as of 7:30 AM ET, the Wizards are available as high as a +7 in some big shops. Washington is a poor 13-25 ATS on the season but enters this game off back to back wins and covers and there is a different feeling in the Wizards locker room as they head into this match-up against a divisional foe. The Heat are on a ridiculous 15-4 ATS run which you know can't continue. Miami is just not that strong of a team and the absence of Goran Dragic is going to catch up with them. The Heat are 2-2 SU their last 4 games and I expect another SU loss here but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Wizards are 5-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season while Miami is a poor 2-7 SU and ATS in divisional games on the season. Washington is already adjusting to life without John Wall plus remember they've only had Trevor Ariza for the past 8 games and he has already had games with highs of 24 in points, 9 in assists, and 8 in rebounds. He is a key contributor that will be a difference maker tonight. The Wizards are playing scrappy and hungry basketball right now and that is the kind of dog (with plenty of fight) you want on your side. 10* WASHINGTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - I don't foresee Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors being denied here. Yes the Spurs are off a big win over another Atlantic Division opponent, the Celtics, but they hit 14 of 26 three-pointers in that game. That was the difference in the contest and, of course, the odds are very strong that such an insane shooting performance will not be repeated here! Leonard wants this game badly and his teammates know it as this will be his only game in San Antonio this season. He wants to show Coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs that they made a big mistake in the way they handled him last season. Now it is payback time for Leonard. Note that the Raptors are a respectable 11-7 SU in games against teams with a winning record while San Antonio is only 9-9 SU in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, when off an upset win as an underdog, the Spurs are just 10-11 SU and ATS. Toronto, though off a win, is not happy with their defensive performance in that game and they've gone 6-2 SU this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Also, the Raptors are 14-4 SU when off a game in which they've scored 115 points or more this season. Additionally, Toronto is 21-7 SU this season when facing a team that is allowing 106 points or more per game on the season. The Raptors lost their most recent road game by 29 points. After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Orlando, they've had this road game circled blood red and it is payback time for Leonard and Company! 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set-up here. The Mavericks are off an ugly loss by 20 points at Oklahoma City Monday. The Hornets are off a huge win by 25 points versus Orlando Monday. Dallas is a fantastic 36-16 ATS (including 6-1 this season!) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Charlotte is an ugly 4-8 SU (and they're laying points here!) when off a victory by a double digit margin. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and, long-term the Mavs are 10-3 ATS (and SU!) in games played at Charlotte. The Mavericks were on a 5-0 ATS run before the loss to the Thunder. The Hornets were on a 2-7 ATS run before the win over the Magic. Grab the points here but I don't expect to need them. 10* DALLAS

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - Yes, I am aware of Kyle Lowry being out for this game. However, I am also aware of the fact that the Raptors are off RARE back to back POOR shooting games. There have been only 2 other times that Toronto shot less than 42% from the field in back to back games. BOTH times their next game flew over the total and, in fact, the average points scored in that next game was 229! Of course the Jazz like to play a slower, grinder-style of game but it is not their choice today. With this game in Toronto, the Raptors will dictate the tempo. The over is 17-10 in Utah's last 27 against Atlantic Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 on the season when the Jazz are playing with home loss revenge. Toronto is 17-8 to the over against Northwest Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 on the season in Raptors Tuesday games. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Monday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Magic there are four important things to note here that will render that a mute point. Yesterday's game was a day game so that helps in terms of travel and rest. Flight time from Orlando to Charlotte is less than two hours so there was not significant travel involved. The Magic are much improved on defense this season and are entering this game off back to back wins and looking to close 2018 strong. Orlando has NOT forgotten about one of their most embarrassing losses of the season and that 32 point beatdown happened at HOME early this season which was the most recent time the Magic faced the Hornets. This is Orlando's first opportunity at revenge since that game and they'll make the most of it. The Magic are 6-3 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Orlando is 10-4 ATS in road games. Charlotte is actually 6-11 ATS in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Hornets enter this game on an overall 4-10 ATS run their last 14 games. Look for the Magic to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and I would not be surprised if their SU winning streak reaches 3 games as they are playing with a lot of confidence right now after home wins versus Toronto and Detroit. Looking for the upset but will gladly grab the big points as added insurance in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Common thinking will be to back Charlotte in this chance at revenge for the loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday. As long-time followers know, my way of thinking is anything but common. Known for being contrarian, I am again going to contrary to the masses here and backing the Nets but is certainly not without reason. The Hornets are on a 3-9 ATS run their last dozen games. Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last 10 games. Charlotte actually has a losing SU record this season when playing with revenge and the past two seasons went a combined 34-56 SU when playing with revenge. The fact is that revenge is one of the most over-played angles in sports betting and, in this case, I am going against the grain and backing the Nets on the road. Brooklyn is a red hot team and is on a 29-14 ATS run long-term against Central Division opponents. Charlotte has gone cold and is on a 12-33 ATS run long-term versus Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets are also just 5-10 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 13-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* BROOKLYN

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets and Celtics are both off big wins on Christmas Day. That said, there is an edge for Houston here as they are still at home while the Celtics were in Boston to host the Sixers on Tuesday. The Rockets have won 7 of their last 8 games and they've had some adjustment time the last few games without Chris Paul. The Celtics are off back to back wins but previously had lost 3 straight. The home team has gotten the SU sweep in the home and home series between these teams the past two seasons. I look for that trend to continue here. Boston is just 4-7 ATS in non-conference games and only 2-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Rockets are 10-6 ATS (and 11-5 SU) this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Celtics are a mediocre 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS this season when they have faced teams with a winning record. 10* HOUSTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - Of course it looks enticing to play the small home favorite in a match-up like this but I am happy to back the road dog here. Both the Nuggets and Spurs are off losses but Denver is off their worst loss of the season and allowed a season-high in points. Note that they lost a key player to ejection midway in the 3rd quarter of that game and the Nuggets just didn't come ready to play that night. They paid for it and got dominated in the paint on both sides of the floor. Denver will undoubtedly be ready to make up for that effort here. The Nuggets entered that loss to the Clippers having won 11 of their last 13 games both SU and ATS! Also, Denver won the last two meetings with the Spurs last season and the prior loss was just a 2-point defeat at San Antonio. In other words, the 3 points could come in handy here but I am certainly making this play expecting an outright road upset. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 6-8 SU this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Denver is a long-term 21-10 ATS, including 4-0 ATS the past two seasons, when they are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Nuggets have proven, as shown above, to be the better team in games against winning teams this season. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* DENVER

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 5:35 ET - The Celtics are off a win versus Charlotte but previously Boston lost three straight! Also this included back to back losses at home in which the Celtics were completely dominated on the boards by both the Suns and the Bucks. With the rejuvenated and revenge-minded Sixers also fully capable of dominating the rebound department, Boston is likely to again be in trouble here. The Sixers have been on a surge ever since the trade for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers enter this game having won 13 of their last 18 games. Philly is a long-term 25-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also 7-1 ATS when a divisional game. Also, the Sixers are 6-3 ATS (including 7-2 SU) when playing with revenge this season! This one has the makings of an upset with the strong motivation factor for Philly (0-1 versus Boston this season after being knocked out of playoffs by Celtics last season). With the Celtics recent slump and Boston a long-term 7-13 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more, I am grabbing the points with the underdog Sixers in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets @ 3:05 ET - The Rockets game versus the Spurs Saturday stayed under the total but Houston entered that game on a 6-2 run to the over in their last 8 as a host. The Thunder enter this game on a 3-1 run to the over in their last 4 games overall. Oklahoma City is 3-1 to the over in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 or more points. The Rockets are off that big win versus San Antonio and Houston has gone 4-2 to the over this season when off a divisional game. The Rockets are 7-3 to the over their last 10 games with a posted total of 220 or more. I am going contrarian here. Many will look at the total in the 220 range and feel it is too big but, as you can see per the above, there is plenty of  support for expecting a close game. Also, there have only been two other times this season that Houston entered a game having been held under 40% from the field in each of their two prior games. In both instances, the Rockets shot much better in that third game and the match-up flew over the total. Look for that to be the case again here as the rare situation improves to 3-0 on the season. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) @ Sacramento Kings @ 6:05 ET - The Kings are playing with revenge here but, keep in mind, they're off a big revenging win over Memphis in their prior game. Now they host a Pelicans team that is hungry off a loss. New Orleans is actually off three straight losses but they previously held 3 of their 4 prior road opponents to 43.9% or less from the field. I look for the Pelicans defense (especially off back to back losses) to be a difference-maker here. Sacramento has actually allowed 50% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 home games. New Orleans has alternated ATS wins and losses in 13 straight games! Off an ATS loss Thursday, look for this perfect pattern to make it 14 straight with an ATS win here for the Pelicans. The Kings are off a low-scoring win over the Grizzlies but had previously allowed 127.4 points or more in their 5 prior games! 10* NEW ORLEANS

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry is expected to miss this game and Toronto is in a back to back spot after the win versus Cleveland last night. They've gone 2-2 without Lowry in these 4 games he has missed but they lost both road games! Also, the Raptors are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard tonight since it is a back to back spot and he played 37 minutes last night. Surprisingly Toronto has had success in most of the games Leonard has missed this season but that is unlikely to be the case here. The 76ers are playing this game with double revenge as they have lost both games to the Raptors this season. Those losses came north of the border though and now the Sixers finally get their chance at home. Of course Philly is laying a small number here and that is certainly noteworthy as they are 15-3 SU in home games this season. Also, note that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS (and SU) this season when off a divisional game. Prior to last night's big win over Cleveland, the Raptors were on a 3-8 ATS slide. Look for those struggles for Toronto at the betting window to resume as the 76ers get payback tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Not only has Detroit lost both match-ups with Charlotte this season, the Pistons also lost their final two match-up with the Hornets last season. Suffice to say, incentive is high for the road dog in this one. The Pistons lost at Charlotte by a single point last week Wednesday and it was on a last second shot too so the memory is certainly fresh. Look for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to dominate in the paint in this one for a very hungry Detroit team. The Pistons are off an OT win at Minnesota Wednesday and they are 7-2 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Pistons shot the ball very well against the Timberwolves. Detroit is also 8-4 ATS this season in road games! The Hornets are wrapping up a 10-game homestand and are just 8-17 SU their last 25 when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Also, Charlotte is on a 2-7 ATS run and are off a double digit win over the Cavaliers in their most recent game. That is noteworthy here as the Hornets are just 3-6 SU this season when off a win by 10 or more points. Give me the underdog here as they actually have a great shot at the outright upset per the above and I'll gladly take the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Huge rest edge for the Heat here as they'll be playing for the first time since Sunday while the Rockets were busy going hard last night to set the NBA record (26) for three pointers last night. Houston now will be on the road and playing for the 3rd tine in 4 days while Miami is playing their 1st game in 4 days. Also, the Heat have revenge here after they got swept by the Rockets last season. Keep in mind Miami did sweep Houston the prior season but now, after the Rockets got their revenge last season, it is the Heat ready to avenge defeat this time around. Also note that Houston is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season when off a non-conference game and also 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. As for the Heat, they are a 9-3 ATS in non-conference games this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS against Southwest Division opponents. Also, Miami has held their last two opponents to just 41.5% from the field. Conversely, the Rockets have allowed 53.3% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Heat to hold the edge defensively tonight and that will be the difference as Houston's shooters cool off on the road. The Rockets, in fact, are just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last 9 road games. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Wednesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are off their worst loss in the Jimmy Butler era. Philly lost by 27 points at San Antonio on Monday and this was despite taking 11 more shots from the field than the Spurs did! As you can see from that stat, SA was simply on fire in that game while the Sixers were cold as ice. That sets this one up well as the Knicks will prove to be the perfect punching bag for Philly. The 76ers also won't take their foot off the gas here as they are angry and they don't play again until Saturday. That means the Sixers will go the full 48 minutes here and that is bad news for a New York team that lost by 26 in the first match-up between these teams this season and that was only 3 weeks ago. The Knicks are having a horrible season and have lost 7 of their last 8 games. The average margin of loss in New York's last 8 games is 14 points and that included ugly losses to teams not nearly as strong as the Sixers. In other words, a home blowout is on tap tonight! The Knicks are 4-8 ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a perfect 6-0 SU (and solid 5-1 ATS!) this season when off a loss by 10 or more points. In other words, the 76ers respond in a huge way Wednesday night. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:35 ET - For the 4th time in their last 6 road games, the Lakers allowed at least 48.5% shooting from the field as they gave up 128 points in a loss at Washington on Sunday. Los Angeles, of course, will be looking to bounce back off that loss and I expect their going to have a huge scoring night Tuesday at Brooklyn but I also expect them, per the above, to struggle to stop the Nets. Brooklyn has actually been very hot with their shooting. Part of the reason the Nets are on a 6-0 ATS run and 5-0 SU run is because they have shot 52.1% from the field in their last 4 games! Brooklyn, however, has also allowed 52.9% shooting in their last 3 games! As you would expect with those types of numbers, the O/U is 3-0 in the Nets last 3 games. LA is also 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. Additionally, the Lakers O/U is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 or more. The Nets O/U is 5-1 when they are off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Brooklyn is also 4-1 to the over when they are on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Nets are 9-4 to the over in games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz are off on extremely ugly shooting game Saturday but it was played at Mexico City. After that tough performance in an unusual venue look for Utah to shoot much better in a very familiar venue now as they face a Rockets team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the most recent post-season. What is interesting is that now Houston is the revenge-minded team in this match-up as the Jazz took each of the first two games this season. Look for this to result in a very spirited effort from the Rockets here with plenty of points scored! Houston will play "Rockets ball" on their home floor in this one. They've averaged 120.7 points per game in their last 6 home games. Utah should certainly bounce back after the low-scoring game against the Magic. In fact, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Jazz were off a game in which they were held to 99 points or less! Utah has averaged a solid 106 points per game in their last 3 games at Houston and we've got a low total to work with here when you consider the way the Rockets have been piling up points at home. The over is 5-1 in Houston's last 6 home games. The over is also 4-1 this season when the Rockets are off a divisional game. Utah is a long-term 34-18 to the over in games played against Southwest Division opponents. Look for another "Southwest Shootout" in this match-up tonight! 10* OVER the total in Houston

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Situations just don't get much better than this and, yes, I am aware of Jimmy Butler being questionable for this game with a groin injury. The 76ers were a perfect 10-0 at home this season when the Cavaliers visited Philadelphia last month and put an end to that perfection with a dominating road win. The 76ers haven't forgotten that and it is time for payback here. With Philly off rare back to back losses, the hunger factor is even higher for the revenge-minded Sixers here. The last 7 times that the 76ers have been off a loss they've gone 5-2 ATS. Look for a huge road win and cover here. The Cavaliers are off a double digit loss to the Bucks but don't look for a bounce back here! Cleveland is actually an ugly 20-38 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The Sixers are a long-term 31-16 ATS (including 4-1 ATS this season) when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The 76ers are also 32-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Hardwood Hammer - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:35 ET - I suffered a very frustrating loss with the Spurs "over" on Thursday. San Antonio was up 66-57 at the half against the Clippers so it was on pace for 246 points. Inexplicably, the Clippers were so inaccurate with second half shooting they "couldn't even throw the ball in the ocean" as they saying goes. LA scored 30 points in the ENTIRE second half after scoring nearly that in EACH of the first two quarters. Anyway, that is leading to come key total value here as the total between the Bulls and Spurs was higher when these teams just recently met in Chicago. The fact is that San Antonio has been playing some solid defense but they also have been red hot with their shooting on offense. That said, after a string of solid performances on D against Western Conference foes, don't be surprised if SA is a bit lack-luster on the defensive end as the 6-23 Bulls come to town. As for Chicago, they are off a game in Mexico City which was a grinder with tough shooting in an unfamiliar setting. The Bulls will be happy to get back to a regular venue and should thrive tonight with a strong game offensively. Chicago scored 107 points versus the Spurs in their match-up about 3 weeks ago. San Antonio enters this game having averaged 118 points per game in their last 7 games. Also, SA is still 10-4 to the over their last 14 games despite that ridiculous "under" result on Thursday. The over is 3-1 this season in Spurs games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Friday 8* Boston Celtics (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - I aware of the illness and injury issues (for both teams) impacting this match-up. However, it is expected that the Celtics Gordon Hayward will play and I expect Jaylen Brown will be back too. Even if Brown is not back, the most important match-up here is Boston coach Brad Stevens (arguably the best in the business) over Atlanta coach Lloyd Price (first year coach). The Celtics already blasted the Hawks by 18 points earlier this season and that game was at Atlanta. Also, the Hawks were led in points and rebounds by Jeremy Lin in that game but he is questionable for tonight's game with back problems. Atlanta may hold him out and save him for a much more winnable game on Sunday at Brooklyn. Of course the Hawks star is Trae Young but he had a +/- rating of -35 in the first meeting between these teams this season! It is simply a complete mismatch and Boston is also the much deeper team so even the late game edge with back-ups in will be to their advantage. Also, the Celtics are on a 7-0 ATS run and are 5-0 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or ore. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. Additionally, Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in Friday games this season. The fact that the Hawks won at Boston in their last visit here (in April) also insures that the Celtics will keep their foot on the gas as they close out what should be a blowout home win here. Combined edges are 21-0 ATS in favor of the home favorite in this one. 8* BOSTON 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs have had back to back unders in their last two games but the over was 10-1 in their 11 prior games. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 games versus Los Angeles. The Clippers are on a 12-3-1 run to the over in their last 16 games. The Spurs are 9-2 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Clips are 39-18 to the over (including 11-2 this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for the defensive struggles of LA to continue in this one but also note that Los Angeles has averaged 114.5 points per game in their last two games versus the Spurs. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #538 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers will likely be without Jimmy Butler for this game. As a result, this line has been over-adjusted too low and I am happy to step in and take advantage. Keep in mind the Sixers played nearly the entire game versus Detroit without Bulter (0 points in 10 minutes early before he got hurt) and yet they still rolled the Pistons. Also, in their prior game (also versus Pistons but at Detroit), Joel Embiid was out and Butler took over. Philadelphia has plenty of options on offense because they also have Ben Simmons and then they've seen other role players stepping up and having big games for them. Embiid shook off early rust and had a huge game versus the Pistons and so he'll carry momentum right into this match-up with the Nets. Surprisingly, Brooklyn enters this game off back to back wins but, keep in mind, the Nets had previously lost 12 of their 14 prior games! They're facing a 76ers team that is 14-1 SU at home this season! This is why I have no hesitation in laying the modest number at home here with Philly! The Sixers are 6-3 ATS (and 9-0 SU) in home games with posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Nets are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 SU losses. In other words, when they lose SU they also have been losing ATS at a high percentage clip. Look for that trend to continue here as Embiid again takes over with Butler sitting out. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - Each of these teams enter this game having stayed under the total in 3 straight games. However, it is a statistical anomaly that won't continue here. That's because the Blazers are actually hitting 49% from the field their last 5 games and the Rockets are now back home where they've gone over the total in 4 straight games. Houston has shot 52% from the field in those 4 games. The over is 5-1 in Portland's last 6 road games. The over is 6-2 when the Rockets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, when Houston is off an upset loss as a favorite, the over is 6-3 this season and the Rockets are 4-0 to the over when off a divisional game this season. Portland is 3-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Both teams have fresh legs here and the shots will be scorching the nets in this one! 10* OVER the total in Houston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are rested and ready here. Yes, I am aware of the Joel Embiid situation but he didn't play in the match-up with Detroit on Friday and yet the Sixers still won by a half dozen points and that game was at Detroit. While Philly has been off since Friday, the Pistons are in a tough scheduling spot here as they did battle with the Pelicans yesterday. That loss to New Orleans dropped the Pistons to 0-4 their last 4 games (SU and ATS). Not only does that make this a back to back spot for Detroit, it is also the Pistons 3rd game in the last 4 days. Detroit is 11-22 SU when playing on back to back days and 7 of their last 8 SU losses have also been ATS losses. In other words, when the Pistons do lose they usually don't cover either! As for the Sixers, when they get a SU win they usually do cover as 11 of their last 15 SU win have also been ATS wins. Philadelphia is on a 32-16 ATS run in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the 76ers are on a 64-36 ATS run in home games. They are 13-1 SU in home games this season and are also 23-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. All factors considered, including this line being around a 7 as of early game day morning, this is a great value spot on the Sixers as they have big situational edges here. Philly has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 40% from the field! Great defensive numbers while the Pistons have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. All signs point to a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:05 ET - Yes this is a big game so you would expect some extra defensive intensity but, truth be told, neither one of these teams is where they are today because of defense. The Raptors and Bucks are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their scoring prowess. Of course this is a big revenge game for Toronto after losing at Milwaukee earlier this season. That is certainly noteworthy as the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season when playing with revenge. As for the Bucks, they are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Additionally, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Milwaukee's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Last but not least, the over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. That means we have combined angles of 19-0 / 100% PERFECT in this one in support of a high-scoring blockbuster. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - The Nuggets are off a loss last night that snapped a 7-game winning streak. Even though Denver shot very poorly in the game it still went over the total. In other words, that tells you the type of quick pace they're playing. Yes, I am aware there are some injury situations for each team heading into this game but, the point is, I do not expect the Nuggets to take their foot off the games in this one. That said, Denver did score 138 points when they hosted the Hawks last month. As for Atlanta, the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games. Also, the Hawks are 6-2 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over in home games this season. The over is 25-12 when the Nuggets are on the road and the posted total on their game is 220 points or more. Look for another one to fly over the total here as Denver will be ready to push the pace from the opening tip after what happened last night at Charlotte. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Saturday 8* Houston Rockets (-) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 6:05 ET - The Rockets still remember the sickening feeling of going 0-3 on their most recent 3-game road trip. Houston doesn't want to have that feeling again and, to avoid it, they need to get a win at Dallas on Saturday. Look for them to do just that as they get revenge for an embarrassing 128 to 108 loss to the Mavericks in Houston about a week and a half ago. Houston had dominated the Mavs in recent meetings, prior to that 20-point loss, and the Rockets also are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 visits to Dallas. The Mavericks are actually 11-25 SU in divisional games and that includes 1-3 this season with the only win being the aforementioned victory over the Rockets. As for Houston, they are a long-term 48-24 SU when playing with revenge. Also, when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, the Rockets have gone 74-25 SU! Couple these factors with the low line posted on this game and I am laying the short number with a small road fave that will not be denied tonight after getting blown out in back to back games plus blown out the last time they faced this Mavericks team! 8* HOUSTON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are moving to -2.5 in a lot of shops this morning but also are still available as low as -130 on the money line this morning which is how I would play it if you have access to that. Either way though I do expect a road rout from Philadelphia here. They are off a loss where they had a rough 4th quarter at Toronto on Wednesday. That certainly holds significance here as the Sixers have lost back to back games only once this season and that was over 6 weeks ago! Ironically their lone two-game skid did include a loss at Detroit so Philly will look to get payback after crazy overtime game against the Pistons early this season. Of course the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and are a stronger team than they were earlier in the season. The Pistons are off back to back losses and are 1-3 SU this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. That ugly skid (a 5-gamer) included a loss at Philly and this time the Sixers get the job done again albeit at Detroit! The Pistons are 1-3 SU this season after a loss by 10 or more points. Also, Detroit is 32-55 SU in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a perfect 4-0 SU this season when off a loss by 10 or more points. Also, the Sixers are 5-0 SU (and ATS) when off a divisional game. Look for Philly to respond after the 4th quarter collapse against the Raptors. The 76ers can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that loss. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - This is a revenge game for the Celtics. That means they are NOT going to try and grind out a win against a Knicks team they know they can dominate. Look for this one to be played at a very fast pace as a result as Boston will NOT take their foot off the gas in this one. The Celtics have fresh legs as they've been off since Saturday. Boston seeks payback here for that 117-109 loss to the Knicks two weeks ago. In that game the Celtics had 97 shots from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night. That won't happen again here! New York has allowed 119 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in the Knicks last 8 road games. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 Celtics games overall. In Boston's last 6 games they had one horrible scoring effort (versus Utah) but have averaged 117.6 points per game in the other 5 games. The over is 4-1 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The over is 21-9 when the Celtics enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive games going over the total. In other words, don't be surprised when we see another one here. The over is 8-4 in Knicks games against teams with a winning record. More of the same in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston