Rotation #929: Tuesday OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Big total here but the wind will likely be blowing out for this one. First toward center and then perhaps toward right-center as the game goes on. The Cubs have hit well at home and have a solid batting average there. Their bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack for team ERA while the struggling Astros have a bullpen ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors! Considering this match-up also features two struggling starting pitchers, I expect plenty of runs here. Even though Jordan Wicks has been piling up strikeouts he has just to complete 5 innings in any of his 4 starts this season. Wicks has allowed 30 baserunners in those 17 innings as he has given up 21 hits plus walked 9! That spells trouble here against an Astros lineup that will be ready to explode after a shutout loss in their most recent game. As for the Cubs, they have scored an average of 6 runs when at Wrigley Field this season and they are facing JP France in this one. The Astros hurler, just like Wicks, has a high WHIP so far this season as he has given up 26 hits plus walked 8 in his 20.1 innings so far this season. Baserunners and hitter friendly conditions expected throughout this one and that means double digits likely here! Don't let the big number keep you away. This is a great spot for a slugfest. OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs

Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco

MLB Monday OVER 10 -120 in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - This is a big total but it is justified. The Braves are the top hitting team in the majors thus far. The Astros are the top hitting team in the American League so far. Also, the Astros bullpen has struggled so far this season and the Braves bullpen has had ups and downs and rank only in the middle of the pack on the young season. As for these starters, I am not convinced of Vines "stuff" in terms of being a major league hurler. He is still young and raw and so give him a chance to develop but will his repertoire of pitches be enough at this level? I am still not convinced. I think the Astros will give him trouble here in his first MLB start of this season. Houston has a pitching concern of their own here as Arrighetti gets the start in this one. He could be back in AAA after this start as Verlander is close to coming back. There is a lot of pressure on the young hurler and he got rocked in his first MLB start versus the Royals and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. He had not looked overly sharp in the minors either. Arrighetti has a strong arm but he is just not quite ready yet and it is showing in his results. Given all of the above, the over is the play in this one as it should be a slugfest. OVER 10 -120 in Houston

MLB Thursday: OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as the Red Sox and Orioles starters both present impressive ERA numbers and so do the bullpens. Already this posted total has moved from a 9 down to an 8.5 in a number of places. I expect the Red Sox to hit well at home and the Orioles got to the Sox pen yesterday in their huge comeback win and can do that again here. However, also note that Baltimore could get to Whitlock better than most might expect. He has had one day start and one night start this season. He did not allow any earned runs in night start but, in 4 innings  he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Last season Whitlock had a 6.34 ERA and a .326 BAA in his night games. As for the O's Rodriguez, he gave up 7 hits and walked 2 in less than 5 innings in his only start versus the Red Sox last season and that was here at Fenway Park. Again, a bit of a contrarian play but you can see exactly why I am expect runs to again flow between these teams, just like yesterday. OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston

MLB Wednesday OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3 ET - The teams combined to go 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's 3-2 Arizona win. Look for much more clutch hitting today! Both these lineups are loaded with guys that have had success against the starting pitcher they are slated to face today. Also, both Austin Gomber and Tommy Henry are off to tough starts this season. The Rockies Gomber is having command issues with his pitches again and walking too many guys. He has made two starts this season and already got rocked when he faced the Diamondbacks in Arizona in the first one. As for the Dbacks Henry, he has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings this season and that includes getting rocked by the Rockies earlier this season. That start was in Arizona too and now he has to face them on the road at Coors Field. Look for both starters to struggle here and note that Arizona bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack and the Rockies bullpen ranks dead last in the NL based on ERA so far this season. This total has dropped from an opener of 12.5 down to a 12 as of 7 hours before first pitch and that also has added value to this play. OVER the total in Colorado

MLB Wednesday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have scored just 2 runs in each of the last two games - both losses - versus the Cardinals. However, they will take advantage of facing Zach Thompson here. The Cardinals southpaw has allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his only start this season. He was rocked for 3 homers in that game. San Diego will see their bats wake up as a result in this one. Keep in mind the Padres scored an average of 8.6 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding that. The Cardinals have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 4 games and they should stay hot at the plate here as well. St Louis will take advantage of facing a struggling Joe Musgrove. The Padres right-hander has been hit hard in both his starts this season and has given up 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings. More of the same here and we take advantage of the rather low total posted here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Tuesday OVER 8 -115 in Oakland vs Boston @ 9:40 ET - A's were shutout yesterday but scored 11 runs in the 3 games prior to that and their 4-3 win is the only game this season in which totals runs have not reached an 8. I like the value because I like the Athletics bats to bounce back off the shutout loss just like they did with 4 runs in a 6-4 loss after they were shutout in their season opener. Also, the A's have allowed 7.6 runs per game this season and though I think they will hit Bello - he has a 4.35 ERA in his career. Also, Oakland will get hit as Wood struggled badly in his first start this season and he also has only had one decent season since his big years with the Dodgers ended all the way back in 2018. The Red Sox faced some tough Seattle pitching to open the season but will really get the bats going here in Oakland just like they did last night. OVER 8 -115 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - I know last night's game stayed under the total and burned us but I am coming right back with the over in this match-up. This is a bullpen game tonight and the Diamondbacks should get their fair share of runs tonight on their home field but they are up against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 9 playoff road games and - prior to last night - had hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also I do expect Arizona to do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks, prior to last night's game, had been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They entered last night's Game 3 having won 5 of 7 games and having scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games, prior to last night's surprising 3-1 loss, they averaged 6 runs per game. The Rangers have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 9 straight road games. Prior to last night's surprisingly low-scoring game, 6 of last 7 Texas games had totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games had totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Tuesday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - This is the spot where Pfaadt's bubble bursts. He has been very successful in this post-season which is surprising given the young hurler's results at the MLB level. That said, I don't see it lasting all the way through. Now he makes a World Series start against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 8 playoff road games and has hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also Arizona should do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks have been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They have since won 5 of 7 games in and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games they averaged 6 runs per game. Scherzer has not been working deep in starts for the Rangers and he has been a bit shaky. The Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs per game in winning 8 straight home games. 6 of last 7 Texas games have totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games have totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Monday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:03 ET - Look for a carry-over from the crazy high-scoring Game 2 in this series. Kremer will struggle in this spot on the road and the Rangers are swinging red hot bats. At the same time, Eovaldi was hit harder than it looked in his post-season start against the Rays last week. That said, we get some line value here because both these starters are solid pitchers with good numbers but these are two very solid lineups and both playing with a lot of confidence after the way Game 2 played out in particular. The hot hitting carries over here and this one should fly over the total. Eovaldi got some key double play balls plus there were a lot of line drives hit against him at Tampa Bay. Hats off to him for still getting the job done but he won't be so fortunate against an Orioles lineup that is more potent than the Rays plus knowing this is a do or die spot for them. Kremer is making his post-season debut and it is on the road and he was a little shaky in a couple of his final starts in the regular season that just wrapped up last month. OVER 9 in Texas

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - The Yankees are off a shutout loss yesterday but this followed wins in 5 of last 6 games and New York scored an average of 5 runs in the 5 victories. As for Kansas City, the Royals are off 3 straight losses and allowed 7 runs per defeat on average. However, KC is certainly happy to back home and the sweep at the hands of Detroit followed a hot stretch for Kansas City. The Royals had won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to falling apart against the Tigers. The bats should bounce back against Rodon here as the Yankees southpaw has been nothing special this season. As for the Royals Lyles, he is having a very rough season overall and the Yankees hammered him earlier this season and the same should hold true here. He is 5-17 with a 6.24 ERA on the year. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs  Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Sheehan has been quite impressive at times  for the Dodgers but also has been a bit "hit and miss" per se so he is not yet a model of consistency and Coors Field is a tough place to pitch. That said, I am expecting the Rockies to get to him here on a hitter-friendly evening as the weather is good and the ball will be carrying very well as usual at Coors Field. The Rockies are expected to start Davis and he will struggle here against a potent Dodgers team. LA is very relaxed at the plate right now because they are essentially locked into the #2 seed for the post-season. They won't catch the Braves but also the Brewers will not catch them so LA can continue to be very relaxed at the plate. Yesterday Game 2 of the double header was an 11-2 Dodgers win and the first game saw each team just miss the double digit mark in hits though the game stayed well under as Colorado got a surprising win in that opener. The Rockies entered this series having scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games at home and each team used some extra bullpen yesterday. The Dodgers have won 13 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. They can explode again at Coors Field like they did in yesterday's nightcap but the Rockies should join the hit parade party in this one as well. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado 

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Look like Olson for the Tigers here Greinke for the Royals but, regardless of starting pitchers in this one I like the over. Right now KC is tied with Texas as the hottest teams in the American League and Philadelphia is the hottest team in the National League - in terms of current hot streaks. Kansas City has actually won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers bullpen is not great and the Royals bullpen has been bad this season. I know Detroit is not known for scoring well but they have won 7 of 11 games and averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 11 games. We only need 8 runs here to be a winner and Greinke is 1-15 with a 5.37 ERA on the season. If it is Reese Olson for Detroit here, he has been pitching well. However, this Royals team is hot at the plate and playing with a lot of confidence right now. I could see him struggling and this total is just far too low given all the variables here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 9:38 ET - The Angels lineup is definitely not what it once was but they will take advantage of facing a struggling hurler today. Jon Gray is having a horrible September and it has been so bad he has not been able to work deep into starts and that could put pressure on the Rangers bullpen arms here after hanging on by a thread in yesterday's 9-8 win. Speaking of bad Septembers, that is also the case with Patrick Sandoval. That being said, there is a lot of value with the over in this one. Of course the Rangers are a big money line favorite here for a reason and they are a solid favorite at 1.5 runs on the run line for a reason too! I expect a 6-4 type game here at a minimum as the result. Note that Texas has allowed at least 4 runs in 6 of last 7 games. Also, the posted total on this game is 9 runs and 11 of the Rangers last 14 games have totaled at least 9 runs with 10 of those 11 getting to double digits! Texas has scored an average of 8 runs during their current 5-game winning streak. Even though the Angels are simply playing out the string on a tough season, they have had won 2 of 4 before yesterday's loss and, other than a 1-0 win in their five most recent games, LA did average 5 runs scored in the other 4 games. Given the pitching match-up and the current status of these two bullpens, both lineups should enjoy plenty of success here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - This line has dropped in part because of the wind blowing in because of the approaching tropical storm. However, just because the wind is blowing in does not mean guys can't make contact and spray the ball all over the field. Both these pitchers have had tough seasons. Pfaadt for the Diamonbacks and Weaver for the multiple teams he has been with this season. Both guys have struggled. The Yankees got their sticks going a bit and remember they just faced some tough Toronto pitching. No, the Yankees lineup is not great this season but this is a low total and the Yanks do tend to hit better at home and had been scoring a bit prior to the first couple games of the Jays series. The Diamondbacks have been hot and scoring runs and they should stay hot here. The Dbacks bullpen has not been great this season and Pfaadt unlikely to go deep. Take advantage of the low total here and look for 9 or more as this is a low total when it is not Cole vs Gallen. This total just too low. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:45 ET - This total moving to a 9 in some spots with good reason. The Brewers finally got their bats going again yesterday and will have no trouble with the offerings of Thompson here. The Cardinals do tend to hit better at home and should hammer Houser in this one. Note that Houser is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA in night games this season. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him in road games and in night games this year. Thomson has a 4.75 ERA in night games this season and opponents hitting .283 against him under the lights. He is facing a Milwaukee team that has won 9 of 14 and scored an average of 7 runs in those 9 victories. The Cardinals 9 of last 13 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and more of the same expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - This total has dropped and we have solid value on the over. Yes, Steele has great numbers on the season but he actually got hit at a .286 clip last month and a .287 clip the month before that. Hitter friendly weather for this one at Wrigley Field even though the southerly wind will be rather light. Pirates can score some runs here and they will need it because Keller has a 5.35 ERA since the All Star break and has been hit at a .291 clip since then. He also has been great at home but has a 5.15 ERA on the road this season. Cubs rolled 14-1 yesterday and each of their last 7 games have totaled at least 8 runs and that is the current number on this total. Pirates actually had been playing decent on the road and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this solid 6-3 stretch before getting rocked yesterday so they will bounce back here but Cubs are going to continue mashing the ball. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Jose Urena piled up some strikeouts in his last start but also allowed 3 homers and he is 0-6 with an 8.48 ERA this season. As for Jackson Rutledge, he just got rocked in his MLB debut and he struggled some at the AAA level of the minors so this was not a huge surprise. These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball too. The White Sox won 6 to 1 here in DC yesterday but, prior to this, 10 of last 13 Nationals home games have totaled at least 10 runs. As for Chicago, they have scored 6 runs in 4 of last 6 road games. Also, prior to the 6-1 win yesterday the White Sox had allowed 8 runs per game last 6 games overall. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Greinke has been working out of the bullpen recently for the Royals as well and honestly whether he starts here or is a bulk reliever out of the bullpen or whatever the case may be, I look for the Royals league-worst bullpen to get pounded here. KC has a very bad bullpen and the Astros will be scoring runs early and often in this one. The key for the Royals though is they have been hitting better overall for quite a stretch long-term now plus they do tend to hit better when at home. So when you factor that in, we should both teams scoring well in this one. I am not too concerned with the Astros starter here but will mention that it is expected to be Cristian Javier. Not only does he have a 5.51 ERA on the road this season, he has a 5.58 ERA overall since the all star break. I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this one given all of the above and certainly at least getting to double digits should not be a problem. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The first game in this series was 5-5 after 5 innings and they had to go all the way to the 10th inning with no scoring before finally Cincy scored a run and ended up getting the win. That was Tuesday and then yesterday's game was 4-3 after 4 innings but, again a long scoreless lull and no one scored the rest of the way and the Reds won another one-run game. Two of the best bullpens in baseball, right? Actually NO and that is why I really like the over in this early day game Thursday. The Reds are a little better than the Tigers in terms of bullpen ERA but still these two teams are both middle of the pack at best really when it comes to relievers. Derek Law expected to be an opener here for the Reds but Ben Lively likely to get most of the bulk work after returning from covid. Neither guy scares me at all and the Tigers will score well here. The Reds also should pound away. I know Reese Olson has had a couple strong outings but that was against a bad White Sox team and also does not change the fact he has struggled often this season. In fact, from late July to late August, Olson allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts. He struggles again here the way I see it and both teams score big and we take advantage of the line move from 9 down to an 8.5 on this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 12:35 ET - As written in Monday's write-up involving this series, this one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is dead last in the National League based on team ERA. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates are likely starting Mitch Keller here and he is 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA in his last ten starts as he is really struggling. The Nationals are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is having a rough season and is slumping again of late. His only start this month did not go well and he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his 5 starts in the month of August. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last 15 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. The Nationals have seen 8 of last 11 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:10 ET - Keuchel has seen his better years. Yes, he is off a good start but that was preceded by a rough one. Overall, he has struggled with command at times, his strikeouts are down, and he could struggle again here after a rare decent start. I will challenge him to make good B2B starts. As for the Rays Taj Bradley, he is off a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that was at home. In his last two road starts Bradley has walked 9 in 8 and 1/3 innings! He has allowed 12 homers in his last 8 starts and this total is being held at a 9 for a reason. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the bats come back to life in this early afternoon game Wednesday. Very pleasant weather expected for this one. Rays had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs last 10 games prior to yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Twins are 7-4 last 11 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER 9 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians @ 9:45 ET - Going to test the 6-0 run here as this total is an 8 or 8.5 so we need 9 runs to be a winner and each of the Giants last 6 games have all totaled at least 9 runs!  San Francisco has scored 6.5 runs per game during this stretch but also conceded 6 runs per game during this stretch of 6 games. The Giants are feeling it right now with 4 straight wins and should hit Quantrill hard here but don't be surprised if Manaea gives up big runs here as well. Cleveland has lost 3 straight but this was on the heels of a 7-5 stretch in which they scored an average of 5 runs per game. They will take advantage of an inconsistent Manaea making his first start in 4 months. His bulk relief has not been great and this is essentially a bullpen game and Alex Wood and Jakob Junis could see bulk relief time as well and they both have had rough patches recently as well. So no matter the starters here I like the over and I will note that Quantrill has been good since his return but he faced a downtrodden Angels team in most recent start. The start previous to that was solid also except he had more walks than strikeouts there. So I am not sold on him just yet as he is working his way back into top form after having not started since early July and having endured a number of rough stretches this season. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:40 ET - Assad coming off a tough start in which he did not register a single strikeout. He struggled against the Rockies in his lone appearance against them last season and now he makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is a tough spot for Assad and weather conditions look good for this one in Denver and the ball carries so well here. The Rockies counter with Flexen and he had some good starts (mildly good at least) once he settled in a bit after coming over from Seattle in the summer but now the struggles are quickly resuming. Flexen is having a rough September with both starts, including one at home, being very tough. He has been rocked for much of this season and most of his outings in a Rockies uniform as well and Coors Field is the least pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors. That said, the runs keep piling up here as both starters get rocked plus the Rockies bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Asking for a dozen or more runs here is not asking too much! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 6:35 ET - This one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates have not named a starting pitcher yet and I am not concerned who starts. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin and he is having another rough season and is slumping again of late. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last dozen games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6.6 runs per game in last 5 home games. The Nationals have seen 7 of last 8 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Yes it is an evening game in San Francisco but an early start time of 5:10 since it is the Sunday night game so there will still be a decent wind blowing out and temperatures will not be too chilly at gametime for this one. I like the fact that Winn is not getting many strikeouts for the Giants. Yes he has respectable numbers so far but he has been far from dominant as indicated by the strikeout rate and his minor league ERA numbers were not overly impressive so this is not surprising. The Rockies will do some damage here. At the same time, Lambert is in line to get rocked for Colorado. He has been hit rather hard in 5 of last 7 starts and just allowed 4 earned runs in most recent outing. In night games this season, Lambert has gone 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. The Rockies have seen 7 of last 9 games total at least 10 runs and their last 5 games have been on the current road trip so this is not just a Coors Field thing. Those games averaged 12.7 runs per game! We only need 9 to be a winner here. The Giants have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 home games and they are starting to hit better recently after a tough patch as SF has now scored 8 or more runs in 3 of last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:07 ET - The Royals have been scoring well for quite an extended stretch now but they still are one of the worst teams in the league because of their pitching. Their bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the league and here they are essentially going with a bullpen game because Collin Snyder is projected to get the start and he has been a bullpen guy at the MLB level. The Royals just don't have many pitching options right now and even Zack Greinke struggled when used out of the bullpen. The good news for KC though is that projected Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been struggling. He has given up 13 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts. Kikuchi also walked 4 in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. The Royals have scored an average of 7.3 runs in last 6 games. The Blue Jays have a solid lineup and are 14 games over .500 on the season thanks in part to solid run-scoring capabilities. The Jays enter this one off a 5-2 loss at Oakland Wednesday but got some much needed rest yesterday after the long travel back from the west coast and that low-scoring loss was preceded by the Jays scoring 7.2 runs per game last 10 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:20 ET - The Cardinals won 11-6 yesterday and it was no fluke as they won the day before 10-6. These guys are scoring runs like crazy so far in this series but of course the Braves have been the best lineup in baseball this season and their high-scoring ways have continued. They will take things to a higher gear tonight considering that Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. I know recently he has had a couple of better starts but even in both of those he had more walks than strikeouts. He won't be fooling these Braves hitters tonight and he has not fooled much of anyone for much of this season either. Wainwright has a 3-10 record and an 8.10 ERA on the season. I know Max Fried has good numbers for the Braves and he is a rock solid pitcher. However, before his strong start to begin September, Fried had given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work over his 4 prior starts. He has been very hittable and now faces a red hot St Louis lineup. That is why, even though Fried has great numbers this season, this total is set so high. Don't let the big number scare you away. This one likely will get into the same range the prior two games in this series did though this time I expect it will be the Braves doing plenty of damage as they salvage a game in this series. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Orioles should pound Patrick Sandoval here. The Angels left-hander has struggled badly in 3 of his last 4 starts. Also, the over is a PERFECT 4-0 in Sandoval's last 4 starts against AL foes and all 4 of those games totaled at least 11 runs and actually averaged 15 runs! Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Orioles here and, like Sandoval, he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts! Also, 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in overs and all 4 of them totaled double digits in runs. This one should too. I know the Angels lineup is not what it once was but they still have been scrappy recently and they showed that again yesterday. LA games have totaled at least 9 runs in 9 of last 11 and all we need here is 9 to be a winner with this total set at 8.5 runs. The Angels bullpen has been struggling and the Orioles have won 13 of 17 games thanks in large part to red hot production at the plate. Baltimore has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Simply put, this total is too low. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Another wild one yesterday between these clubs as the runs were piling up and I expect more of the same today on Wednesday. The White Sox have seen 7 of last 8 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see big runs again here, especially when you consider that 14 of 20 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs including 5 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Wednesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! In terms of the starting pitchers here - and I do like this over regardless of the starters based on all of the above - note that both are likely to get rocked here. Touki Toussaint walks about 1 batter per inning on the road and he is coming off an August in which he allowed 6 homers in 5 starts! Of course walks and homers are never a good combo for pitchers. The Chicago right-hander is 2-7 this season and his counterpart here, Jordan Lyles has an equally low winning percentage this season. Lyles is 4-15 this season but he is coming off a rare good start. That is actually good news for us because Lyles threw a season-high 114 pitches. Note that every time this season Lyles has thrown at least 100 pitches he has given up at least 4 runs in his next start and been pounded in most of them. In those 5 starts, that followed the heavy pitch counts, he has allowed 26 earned runs - an average of 5 per start and NEVER less than 4. All signs point to another high-scoring game here between these divisional foes. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA this season. Pfaadt has particularly struggled at home where he has a 7.30 ERA and opponents are hitting .320 against him in this, his rookie, season! He just got roughed up at LA by the Dodgers and now he is back home where he has been hit hard in 6 of his 8 starts this season. Unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland has been a little worse on the road than at home in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He is 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA this season on the road and opponents are hitting .306 against him away from home. Freeland is 1-4 with a 6.45 ERA since the All-Star break and gave up 11 homers in 6 starts last month. No sign that things are getting any better for the southpaw and Arizona has average 5.4 runs per game last 7 home games. Prior to yesterday's 4-2 Dbacks win, 8 of the 10 meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 9 runs and 7 of the 8 that did actually reached double digits. All signs point to the fact this one will as well. Note that the Rockies are dead last in team bullpen ERA this season in the NL and that, among NL teams the Diamonbacks are only two spots above bottom-dwelling Colorado. We'll see runs here! 10* OVER 9 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Dylan Cease has a 5.37 ERA in road games this season a 5.42 ERA on the road. Cease is coming off an August in which he compiled an 8.07 ERA in his 6 starts. Brady Singer enters this one off B2B very rough start for the Royals. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 8 innings of work over his past two starts. Singer has a 5.15 ERA on the season and the White Sox have seen 6 of last 7 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see runs here, especially when you consider that 13 of 19 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs in including 4 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Tuesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Angels Kenny Rosenberg has very little MLB activity in his career but has a 1.75 WHIP in his 5 appearances (1 career start). The Angels pitching is going nowhere fast and they recently did an unloading of veteran players. This team is wrapping up for this season but they can still score runs but also give them up in bunches too. The Angels should hit well tonight as the Orioles Grayson Rodriguez got destroyed by the Angels earlier this season. Also, he has been pitching better overall of late but still has a 5.03 ERA this season and the Angels could get to him again here. Of course the Orioles are a huge favorite here for a reason and they will pound Rosenberg and a bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA and ranks as one of the worst in the majors. 5 of last 6 Angels games have totaled double digits and those games averaged 15 runs per game! 7 of last 9 Baltimore games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is the total on this game. The Orioles have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 15 games - an 11-4 stretch for them and I am projecting a high-scoring battle here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 2:10 ET - I used the over successfully in this match-up Friday and should have come right back with it yesterday but made the mistake of leaving it off my ticket. I will not make the same mistake today! Some of the write-up below includes excerpts from Friday's analytics: The Royals Clarke is essentially an opener and I am not too concerned with who the starting pitchers are in this match-up. Boston's Chris Sale is having a rather rough season and things are not improving of late either as he has been hit rather hard in his last two starts even though he is notching some strikeouts. Also, as bad as the Royals are overall, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Sale is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling (and one of the league-worst) Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals entered this series off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and now this series has resumed that double digit trending. As for Boston, 14 of last 16 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a hot afternoon in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:40 ET - I know Assad has been pitching well recently for the Cubs but the Reds are quite familiar with him having seen him a couple time last season and a couple times this season. They are at home where they tend to hit better and I like the situational factor here. Generally games in Cincinnati are high-scoring and yet both games yesterday totaled 8 or less runs. I like that factor plus the simple fact the teams are off a double-header yesterday. That means they used extra bullpen in that one. Also, Abbott gets the start for Cincinnati here and he has solid numbers on the season but has been struggling since late July. Dating back to his last start in July, Abbott has a WHIP of nearly 2.00 and, when you are allowing 2 baserunners per inning plus pitching in a ballpark like this one, you can quickly get into trouble. Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly park and it will be warm weather for this one too. Prior to Game 2 of yesterday's double header, the Cubs last 10 road games had seen them score an average of 6 runs per game and you know the Reds are primed to bounce back here at home at the plate as well. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati 

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Lyles is having a very rough season and things are not improving of late either. Boston's Paxton has decent season numbers but he has struggled lately. Also, as bad as the Royals are, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Paxton is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling Lyles and a league-worst Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals are off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and this one should get there too. As for Boston, 12 of last 14 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a warm night in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees @ 1:10 ET - The Yankees Schmidt has a 5.25 ERA in road games and a 5.14 ERA in day games this season. I know the Tigers are not a great hitting club but Schmidt is also coming off the longest outing of his career. It was the first time he has had an MLB start in which he went more than 6 innings as he made it into the 7th inning. A lot of times when a guy is off a milestone outing like this they take a quick step back in their next start. Couple that with Schmidt's tendency to not be as sharp in day games or on the road and you have a great situation here. As for the Tigers starter here, Manning has a 5.53 ERA in day games this season. Manning is facing a Yankees team whose confidence is growing again with a little winning streak they have going again. Also, if you look at New York's last 8 games, they had won shutout loss but have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in the other 7 games. The last 9 Tigers games have seen Tigers go 2-7 and allow 8.3 runs per game! Don't be surprised if we see this one get into double digits and we only need 9 to be a winner here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - Yes this total is as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning. However, of course it is priced this way for a reason. The weather is very hot in Denver Wednesday and so it will be a warm evening plus in this particular warm weather evening the wind is expected to be blowing out to centerfield at a good clip. Thin air of Denver, warm temperatures, wind blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field - all of these factors mean the ball is really going to carry. Couple that with a match-up in which there should be plenty of contact from the hitters and you have a great situation for a slugfest. Note that the Braves won last night's game with only 3 runs scored but they did have 15 hits. Yes, it was an easy under and we lost our play with the over by a mile but I will not hesitate to come right back with it here. Darius Vines is a Braves rookie and seems to have a bright future but this is a tough place to start out your career. No matter the starting pitchers here I do expect the lineups to be the story! But Vines should see action even if he does not start and the Braves go with a different opener. As for the Rockies, they are expected to start Kyle Freeland and he has been getting hit hard again this month just like last month and is having an overall tough season. Now he must face a Braves lineup that is the best in the majors and scoring more runs than any other team. Look for the hot hitting to resume tonight and the Rockies, known for coming up big at the plate at home quite often, do bounce back big here as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Tuesday MLB 10* OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - This total opened at 12.5 and came down to a 12. Yes, this is still a big number but yesterday's 14-4 game a likely sign of things to come in this series. The Braves are the strongest team in all of baseball with the #1 offense too. The Rockies do score decently at home and have averaged 7.4 runs scored in last 7 games at Coors Field. The problem is that this Rockies team can stop no one and has a weak bullpen also. Colorado has allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their last 9 home games. More of the same expected here. Lambert expected to start for the Rockies and, like most Colorado pitchers, his stats are much uglier at home than on the road. Also, facing the red hot Braves will be his toughest test yet. I also expect Atlanta starter Morton to struggle as his breaking stuff simply will not break as well in the thin air of Colorado as it does in normal ballpark locations. That said, look for plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Atlanta has scored a crazy average of 6.4 runs per game since the All-Star break. Factoring that in with the Coors Field factor and this has the makings of another slugfest. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - No matter the starting pitchers here, both clubs should score plenty of runs here. I love the fact that a strong Orioles team will be hungry to bounce back off a loss while an overall bad White Sox team is actually playing with confidence right now after back to back wins. In a quick look at the starters, Kopech continues to struggle with command and is getting in trouble by issuing far too many walks. As for Rodriguez, he is off a bit of a shaky outing and he actually has an ERA north of 6.00 in his home starts. He could struggle here as the White Sox have scored 6 runs back to back in victories and, overall, Chicago has averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Sox have a very bad bullpen however and it should be noted that, prior to rare B2B wins, Chicago had allowed an average of 9 runs per game in 8 prior games! As for the Orioles, they had won 7 of 8 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in last 7 victories. They will bounce back at the plate here but the visitors will stay hot at the plate also and this one has all the makings of a game that gets into double digits for total runs. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The Giants are going with a bullpen game here. Their bullpen has been decent this season but not great of late. Also, the Braves and Giants have faced each other quite a bit recently and that means extra familiarity for the hitters with the bullpen arms they are facing. As for the Braves starter here, Shuster has struggled at the top level of the minors and his MLB numbers are even slightly worse than his AAA numbers. So, the point is, he is likely to get rocked again here and we will take advantage. The Braves have been the best offense in the league this season and are scoring an average of 6.5 runs per game over the past month as they have been red hot. The Giants lineup has struggled this season but facing Shuster will help them and, no matter the pitchers, I like the fact that San Francisco has at least picked things up a bit over the past week and scored an average of 4 runs per game last 7 games. Look for double digits here as this total was set high with good reason so don't let the number scare you away. 10* OVER 9.5 in San Francisco

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Both bullpens rank in the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the expected starters here, both have been struggling so I like the set-up for plenty of runs in this one Friday. Hendricks has a 5.48 ERA this month with opponents hitting .281 against him after he also got hit at a .277 clip last month. Keller has a 5.73 ERA with opponents hitting .326 against him this month and he also went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA last month. Additionally, the Cubs have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Pirates 14 of last 17 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Look for totals runs to get to double digits here the way these two clubs are going as the Pirates also have averaged 5.5 runs scored per game in last 11 home games. Based on all of the above you can see why I am anticipating a 6-5 type of affair here. 10* OVER 9 in Pittsburgh

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 -125 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The basic premise here is teams off games involving a shutout. I like to look for overs when any team is involved that is coming off a shutout win or loss. That is the case here and then the other key of course should include, to an extent, the pitching match-ups and in this case you have a good spot for a play. That is because Berrios often known for struggling more on the road than at home and Gibson has been struggling and has an 8.31 ERA this month and he also had a 6.84 ERA in June so the point is that his best pitching was much earlier this season. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 or 10 in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - The basic premise here is teams off games involving a shutout. I like to look for overs when any team is involved that is coming off a shutout win or loss. That is the case here and then the other key of course should include, to an extent, the pitching match-ups and in this case you have a good spot for a play. That is because Waldichuk and Scholtens are the expected starting pitchers and they have a combined 3-13 record this season. Not only that, Waldichuk has a 7.29 ERA on the road this season and teams are hitting almost .300 against him away from home on the year. As for Scholtens, he is 0-5 with a 4.63 ERA and a .277 BAA in his evening games this season. This match-up also features two of the worst bullpens in the league. 10* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:37 ET - In a match-up of the two worst teams in the majors you might be looking for a dearth of runs. However, it should prove to be just the opposite again. The A's are expected to start Adrian Martinez here.  Not only has he struggled as a starter at the MLB level, he also had a 5.72 ERA in the minors last season.  Believe it or not, the numbers are even worse this season as he is 0-7 with an 8.45 ERA and opponents hitting .360 against him this season.  Those are his minor league stats this year so truly unreal numbers!  In the majors last season he had a 6.24 ERA as a starter last season and this season he has a 5.85 ERA working out of the bullpen.  I really do not care who the starters are here as the KC pen and the Athletics pen are the two worst bullpens in the American League. So there will be runs throughout this contest the way I see it. Because these teams tend to not score a lot of runs and because the Royals Cole Ragans has had some better starts of late, we will likely get a low total to work with here. As a result, I will not hesitate to step in. Ragans has put up some good numbers since moving into the starters role but still he has been hit at a .272 clip this month so he has had some good fortune also - his ERA could easily be higher.  Oakland's last 9 games have all totaled at least 8 runs and those 9 games averaged 11 runs apiece. Kansas City has seen 19 of 25 games total at least 8 runs after the first two games of this series were 6-4 and 5-4 Royals losses to continue that trend. Looking for double digits here as these lineups will surprise in this one. The pitching will prove to be that bad especially when these bullpens get involved as they had surprising success last night but lightning will not strike twice in that regard! In other words, expect more late runs in this one today! 10* OVER the total in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 or 10 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7 ET - Adam Wainwright is off a start versus Mets in which he allowed only 4 hits in 6 innings. Wainwright must be back, right? No! One start does not change everything and he still had only 2 strikeouts in that start and is not really fooling anyone. The fact is Wainwright, and I 100% respect him and his long career, is finished. He is 41 years old and has an 8.56 ERA at home an 8.24 ERA on the road this season. Wainwright has been consistent one could say but that is consistently bad as you can see. Opponents are hitting .362 against him this season and the Pirates can be tough at home. The key there though is Johan Oviedo is on the mound. That means the two starting pitchers for tonight's game have a combined record of 9-21 on the season! Oviedo had been tough to hit at times after the All Star break but the wheels are starting to come off an he continues to have an issue with too many walks. Also, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings over his past two starts! The Cardinals got hammered by the Pirates 11-1 last night but they had won 5 of 8 road games prior to this and scored 6 runs per game during this 8-game stretch. However, St Louis has allowed 6 runs per game last 11 road games! Pittsburgh had allowed 6 runs per game last 8 home games prior to the easy win last night. The Pirates have scored 6 runs per game last 8 home games. Given all the above, this game getting to 6-6 at some point would not be a surprise as you can see! Either way I am expecting double digits in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Pittsburgh

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals @ 9:40 ET - In a match-up of the two worst teams in the majors you might be looking for a dearth of runs. However, it should prove to be just the opposite. The A's Blackburn is off his best start of the season so you know what is coming now after the mediocre hurler just threw his gem of the season. As for the Royals, they are going with a bullpen game. Speaking of that, the KC pen and the Athletics pen are the two worst bullpens in the American League. So there will be runs throughout this contest the way I see it. Because these teams tend to not score a lot of runs and because Blackburn is off such a strong start, we get a low total to work with here. As a result, I will not hesitate to step in. Oakland's last 7 games have all totaled at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11 runs apiece. Kansas City has seen 17 of 23 games total at least 8 runs. Looking for double digits here as these teams will surprise in this one. The pitching will prove to be that bad! 10* OVER 8 in Oakland

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:10 ET - As always with my picks, action on the starting pitchers. Not sure if Pirates will start Bido here or if they will use Borucki as an opener. Either way, this will likely turn into a bullpen game for Pittsburgh and that is good news for over players as their pen is not exactly good! As for the Twins, Keuchel is the expected starter and it is bad enough that he is getting hit hard so far in his first two starts. But what is even worse is 4 walks against 0 strikeouts. In today's MLB it is hard not to get some strikeouts! Seriously, with all the free swinging it is just tough. So Keuchel is pitching to contact and he is giving up a lot of hits and it continues here against the Pirates as they build off yesterday's 7-4 win. At the same time, the Twins lineup should bounce right back at home and that sends this one into double digits. 10* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota

Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total dropping from a 12 to an 11.5 at the time of this write-up and that means it is go time with this one. The Rockies exploded for 14 runs in yesterday's big win. Today the White Sox should also join the party. Look for both clubs to score plenty in this one! The Rockies will take advantage of rookie Jesse Scholtens making his first career start at Coors Field. He is having a decent start to his career but things get much tougher when you face the Rockies in Colorado and they are coming off a game in which they knocked the cover off the ball. At he same time. the White Sox are also in line for a big game at the plate today. Chicago will take advantage of a struggling Kyle Freeland here. The Rockies southpaw is 4-13 with a 4.94 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .292 against him. Also, he has given up 46 hits in 33.2 innings over his last 6 starts. The White Sox had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in last 4 road games before yesterday's ugly showing and let's not forget this IS Coors Field. The Chicago sticks get back on track here! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - Pfaadt is 0-6 with a 6.91 ERA this season and the Padres just faced him. Lugo is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in home outings  this season and the Diamondbacks just faced him. I got embarrassed with the over in this match-up yesterday and the final score was Arizona 3-1 and each team managed only 3 hits. A lot of times, after a game like that and with consideration to a starting pitching match-up like this, you'll see an explosion of hits and runs the very next game. That is what I am expecting here after the snoozer yesterday. Remember too that the Arizona bullpen has a high ERA which ranks their pen near the bottom of the majors. The Padres were off B2B wins in which they totaled 15 runs prior to yesterday's ugly loss. The Dbacks have scored an average of 5.3 runs in last 7 games and have won 5 of 6 games so confidence is growing and they should pound the ball tonight. 10* OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:40 ET - Kopech is having issues last month and this month with a combination of too many walks and too many homers allowed. That is exactly the combo a pitcher does NOT want to have when they are headed to Coors Field for a start! As for the Rockies Lambert, he has struggled in his home starts at Coors Field throughout his career. This is the perfect spot for a pair of starting pitchers to get rocked and then factor in the fact that these two bullpens have a pair of the highest ERAs in the majors and you can see why I love the over in this spot. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 -120 or OVER 8.5 -100 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - With the Diamondbacks having Zac Gallen on the mound, many would consider the under here at first glance. However, Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde this season in terms of home and away numbers! He is unhittable at home but LESS than even mediocre on the road this year. Gallen is 2-4 with a 4.72 ERA on the road this season. The Padres are familiar with him and should get to him early and often in this one. The good news for Gallen is he should receive plenty of run support in this one. The Dbacks should pound Rich Hill in this one. The 43-year old veteran is having a rough season and it is showing no signs of turning around. In 6 starts since the All-Star break, Hill has gone 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and has been hit at a .322 clip! Arizona has scored 5.7 runs per game last 6 games and they have won 4 of 5 so they come into this one hot. The Padres are 6-4 last 10 games at home and their last 7 home games have averaged 11.6 runs per game and 5 of the 7 reached double digits! 10* OVER 8 -120 or OVER 8.5 -100 in San Diego

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10 -130 or OVER 10.5 -105 in St Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - The Cardinals are starting Adam Wainwright. As I have mentioned before, he is not the same pitcher since his long-time (VERY long-time) batterymate Yadier Molina retired. Wainwright is now 41 years old and he is having a miserable season. This includes going 1-5 with a 9.26 ERA in home games. As for the Mets Jose Quintana, he has been okay but is still 0-4 in his 5 starts and that starts to weigh on a guy mentally. The Cardinals can hit him well here at home but Wainwright also in line to get rocked as per usual. Also, both clubs have consistently been getting involved in higher-scoring games and that trend continues here. 10* OVER 10-130 in OVER 10.5 -105

MLB Wednesday OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:10 ET - Weather looks good for this one and I know Castillo has good numbers for the Mariners but he is on the road here and the Royals just keep surprising at the plate. I say that because, as bad as Kansas City is, they do score runs. This has been a recurring theme for them and they do tend to hit better at home. So I am looking for KC to do some damage at the plate here but the Royals problem here is, as per usual, their pitching! This one looks like it will essentially be a bullpen game because James McArthur is expected to be the starter in this one but he could function more as an opener as he has not started any MLB games in his career. He has made only 5 MLB appearances this season and his numbers show he has struggled at this level. This is not a huge surprise because he has struggled ever since having a strong rookie season in the lower levels of the minors. Since then he went 8-22 with an ERA in the 4.50 range in his minor league career. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. The Royals are 8-2 last 10 home games and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 10 as a host! KC can hit here! 8 of those 10 games did total at least 9 runs. As for the Mariners, they are 14-5 last 19 games and have scored and average of 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. Take advantage of the rather low total here and look for another one to reach double digits just as the first two have totaled more than a dozen runs.  OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics @ 6:45 ET - Weather looks good for this one and many will not look at the over here because the A's have one of the worst lineups in baseball overall in terms of the long-term hitting stats and because the Cardinals Liberatore is off a fantastic start versus the Rays. However, Liberatore had an MLB career ERA near 7.00 prior to that start and I would not be shocked at all to see him endure a quick dose of reality here versus Oakland! The Athletics can score well at times and had scored 6 runs per game in their 2 games prior to last night's 6-2 loss. The problem for Oakland is they have a league-worst bullpen - based on team ERA - and their starter is likely to get rocked here too. Blackburn is expected to get the start and he has allowed 29 hits in less than 18 innings over his last 4 road appearances. He is coming off a road start at Washington in which he particularly struggled and also had more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). The Cardinals have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. Look for St Louis to pound Blackburn and a struggling Oakland bullpen in this one. Take advantage of the rather low total here and look for another one to reach double digits just as the first match-up (7-5 STL win) did in this series before the 6-2 final yesterday.  OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - This is essentially a bullpen game because Mantiply actually pitched (and struggled) last night for the Diamondbacks and he is just expected to be used as the opener here. As for the Rockies Ty Blach, he is off a solid 6-inning start but this is very rare for him this season. In his prior 3 starts he averaged just 4 innings in each. So we should see plenty of bullpen for both of these clubs and that is good news for over players because these two bullpens rank as two of the worst in the majors. Also, the weather is expected to be ideal for an over with hot weather in Denver today on Tuesday. Prior to yesterday's 6-4 Rockies win, 4 of the last 6 Colorado home games had totaled at least 12 runs. These division rivals have a history of playing high-scoring games when they meet and this looks like another one should unfold on Tuesday night. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - Markets have moved this total lower and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move and grabbing the over here. The Pirates are starting Bailey Falter most likely and he is having a very tough season with an 0-7 mark and a 5.21 ERA combined with the Phillies and Pirates. The Mets are likely starting David Peterson here and he is coming off a tough outing and has not been used much in terms of being a regular starter this season. That said, we could see a lot of bullpen for both clubs in this one and the Pirates and Mets each have bullpen ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the majors. 12 of last 16 Pittsburgh games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Mets last dozen games have averaged 10 runs per game. Look for this total to reach double digits as well. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Mets

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -120 in St Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics @ 7:45 ET - Mikolas has had some good starts lately but this Athletics team has been hitting decently at times of late. Also, the Cardinals bullpen is nothing special and the Athletics bullpen is even worse as they rate as the worst bullpen ERA in majors. That Oakland bullpen could be called upon early too because Sears is getting the start here and he is struggling again. 8 of the Athletics last 10 road games have totaled at least 10 runs. The Cardinals last 4 games have averaged 11.5 runs apiece. St Louis has scored an average of 6 runs in those 4 games and they stay hot at the plate here too but Oakland blew a 7-2 lead in yesterday's loss and are sure to be locked in again at the plate in this one as they look for redemption for the Sunday defeat. 10* OVER 8.5 runs -120 in St Louis

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics @ 1:35 ET - Yes, coming right back with this play after it only totaled 5 runs yesterday. Note the teams went a combined 2 for 20 with runners in scoring position yesterday. Also, the Nationals left 12 men on base in yesterday's 3-2 win. Look for much better success in run-scoring opportunities today. Don't forget these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball this season also. As for the starting pitching, that should certainly help the cause here as well. The expected starters are Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Ken Waldichuk for the Athletics here. Williams is winless with a 7.25 ERA in his 5 starts since the All-Star break and truly has struggled since his final start of May until now. As for Waldichuk, he has a 7.84 ERA on the road and a 7.20 ERA in day games this season. He has been a little better of late but his long-term numbers do tell the full story and the Nationals truly should have scored a lot more runs yesterday. They will today and so will the Athletics! 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and more of the same expected today. First off, these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Oakland's bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors. Washington's bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the National League. As for the starters here, Luis Medina is 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA in road games this season. Jake Irvin is struggling this season for the Nationals and it is no big surprise as he has struggled as he elevated in level of opposition year over year. In 2022 at the AA level he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA. Then this season at the AAA level he compiled a 5.64 ERA. In the majors this season he has a 4.93 ERA and he has allowed 7 homers in 22 innings spanning his last 4 starts. Washington is 8-2 last 10 home games and has averaged 5.8 runs per game during this hot run in all home games since the All-Star break. 7 of last 8 Oakland road games have totaled at least 10 runs and this one will too! 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Cardinals off 5-2 win and have been consistently involved in quite a few high-scoring games in the 2nd half of the season. The Royals, though off a 2-0 shutout loss yesterday, also have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games. So after their games yesterday combined for only 9 runs between 4 teams, yes I am forecasting at least 11 runs here Friday. Note that the Cardinals bullpen is ranked 23rd and the Royals bullpen is ranked 29th this season. Also, in terms of starting pitchers, that also should help the cause here. The Cardinals Wainwright is having an absolutely disastrous season and showing no signs of turning it around. Also, the Royals are likely going with a bullpen game here and Coleman likely will just be an opener with Zerpa actually projected to get most of the work. That sets this up to be a very high-scoring game as Zerpa has not been overly impressive as a starter at the AAA level this season. The Cardinals have averaged 5.3 runs scored in last 10 road games. The Royals have won 6 straight home games and scored an average of 6.7 runs in those games. 10* OVER 10.5 in St Louis

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Big total here but fully justified. My biggest concern here is actually the rain. I am just hoping they can get this game to the full 9 innings before the night is over with as another weather system is moving into an already water-logged New England area. The Royals are expected to use Cox as an opener here. He has struggled as a starter this season. KC is then expected to bring in Marsh in a long relief role and he has been struggling overall this season and of late. The Red Sox are expected to start Paxton and he has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and the Royals have been enjoying success at the plate in recent weeks. The Red Sox should enjoy success at the plate here too as they generally hit well at home and the Kansas City bullpen is also a weakness. So, all factors considered, look for yesterday's surprisingly low-scoring game to prove to be an aberration and things get back to big hitting here. 10* OVER 10.5 in Boston

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Braves are starting Fried here but note that he had struggled some at the AAA level this season. He just now has made only 1 start since returning to the majors from injury and he could struggle a bit in the 2nd start back. At the same time, Priester for the Pirates is in line to get completely rocked. The right-hander has struggled badly this season and, of course, the Braves are a huge favorite here - including on the run line with good reason! By the way, 8 of last 11 Atlanta games have totaled double digits in runs. The Braves have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this 11-game stretch. The Pirates have won 10 of 18 games and scored an average of 4.5 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in last 6 home games. We should see solid scoring here and I am looking for double digits based on all the above. 10* OVER 9.5 in Pittsburgh

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET (Game 2 of double-header) - Because this is Game 2 of the double-header we could see a few of the better arms from the bullpen get used up in the first game. Also, the Nationals bullpen has struggled this season and is one of the worst in the majors. That has played in a key role in a lot of Washington games being high-scoring for many weeks on end now - dating back to even before the All-Star break - and I expect more of the same here. The Nationals also send Gray to the mound, most likely, in Game 2. Gray has been hit hard in 3 of his last 5 starts and the Phillies are seeing him for the 3rd time already this season. Suarez is expected to get the start in the 2nd game today after Wheeler starts in the first. Even if this does not hold up I do like the over here regardless of starters. However, if it is indeed Suarez it is worth nothing that he has allowed 46 hits in 34 innings since the start of June. The way the Nats are swinging the bats, they should pound him. Of course Phillies a big favorite for a reason however and they should answer Washington run for run in this one. 10* OVER 9 in Philadelphia (Game 2 of 2)

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Mets exploded for double digits in runs yesterday showing they may still have some life left in them, at least at home. As for the Cubs, they had been red hot but they scored only 2 runs despite 9 hits yesterday. Surely they will make up for that here. Chicago will take advantage of facing a struggling Mets hurler but, as the same time, the Mets should have no trouble with the opposing pitcher in this one! The Cubs send Taillon to the mound and he has a deceivingly low ERA of late because he actually has been hit hard in 6 of his last 8 starts. In fact, in those 6 outings he allowed 43 hits in 31.2 innings of work! Taillon is facing a fired up Mets team here looking to build off yesterday's big performance. At the same time, the Cubs should come up large at the plate here as the Mets send Carrasco to the mound. Carrasco has allowed 23 runs (21 earned) on 32 hits in just 15.1 innings spanning his last 4 starts. 4 of the last 5 Mets games and 6 of last 8 Cubs games have totaled at least 10 runs! In fact those 8 Chicago games have averaged 14.4 runs per game and more of the same expected here! Both bullpens have been struggling too!  10* OVER 9.5 in New York Mets 

MLB Monday OVER 10 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Big number here with posted total but absolutely seems justified. Is Cole Ragans a true starter or more of an opener? Who cares as the fact is he has not been great but neither has this Royals bullpen either. The key with Kansas City of late is they are hitting the ball very well. KC continues to get involved in high-scoring games. I know the Red Sox have cooled off at the plate of late but they generally do hit well at home and should bounce back here against a suspect Royals pitching staff. As for the Kansas City sticks, they certainly should stay hot here. Brayan Bello allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his first start this month. Also, he compiled a 5.48 ERA last month in July. The Royals have seen 8 of last 10 games total 11 or more runs. In fact those 10 games averaged 11 runs too! As for the Red Sox, they scored an average of 5.5 runs per game last 6 games at home before getting rocked 13-1 Sunday. They will bounce back here at the plate but will not be able to slow down the KC hot sticks. OVER 10 in Boston

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:40 ET - I know the Tigers are not known for great hitting but Detroit will take advantage of facing Lopez here. The Twins right-hander is off a solid start at St Louis but allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts before that. Also, his 2 road starts prior to the strong start against the Cardinals saw him allow 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work. The Tigers send southpaw Joey Wentz to the mound and his most recent outing was out of the bullpen and was respectable. However, as a starter this season Wentz is 1-9 with a 6.95 ERA and opponents hitting .299 against him. In his last start at home he hosted these same Twins and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings in a start in which he was fortunate the damage was not worse. The Twins have a .474 slugging percentage last 30 days and that ranks them #1 in the American League! The Tigers are off a 10-6 loss but generally not known for much offense but have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of last 8 games. The Tigers have averaged scoring 4 runs per game last 18 games and I am looking for at least a 5-4 type game here. OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - 5 straight Dodgers games have totaled at least 10 runs and 4 straight Padres games have totaled at least 10 runs. This is a double perfect situation. I know that Lance Lynn had a solid debut for the Dodgers but that came against the league-worst Athletics. Prior to that he allowed 17 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 3 starts overall. In terms of just looking at his road starts (the start versus Oakland was at home), Lynn has allowed 27 earned runs in 35 innings spanning his last 6 outings away from home. The Padres can crush him and a Dodgers bullpen whose struggles continued yesterday. As for San Diego, however, they have a pitching issue of their own with Rich Hill expected to get the start here. How desperate are playoff-potential teams for arms when you consider a guy like Hill is being picked up? The 43-year old southpaw has been fortunate in allowing fewer earned runs in some of his recent starts but this is still a guy who has given up 46 hits in 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. Hill is very hittable and this is a solid Dodgers lineup looking to bounce back off an 8-3 loss yesterday. Given all of the above both clubs should pound the ball tonight. The Padres have a .468 slugging percentage since the All-Star Break and that rates 5th in the majors. The Dodgers have a .444 slugging percentage on the road this season and that ranks 2nd in the majors! 10* OVER 9.5 in San Diego

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - On the season and, in particular, of late both these pitchers have struggled in the situation they are in now. Kyle Gibson for the Orioles has struggled at home and Tylor Megill has struggled on the road and again their recent numbers home/away, respectively, are even worse than their full season numbers which are, to say the least, bad enough! Gibson has a 5.55 ERA at home this season and opponents have hit .300 against him in his home outings. Megill has an 8.00 ERA on the road this season with opponents hitting .345 against him as a traveler. This one should get ugly and the  Mets bullpen is struggling and, in fact, both teams could again give it up as this game goes on. Yesterday's game was just 2-0 entering the 6th inning and then the teams exploded for a final score of 10-3. The Orioles have now gone 14-7 since the All-Star break and scored 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 at home. 6 of last 7 games at Camden Yards have totaled at least 10 runs. The Mets are 9-11 since the All-Star break and have scored 6 runs per game in last 7 wins and allowed 7 runs per game in last 11 losses. Don't be surprised, given the above, if we see a 7-6 type final in this one. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals Wainwright, as I have mentioned before, has a couple things going against him now. He lost his long-time batterymate when Yadier Molina retired and he is now just way past his prime and on the downhill slide to retirement. He is having a very rough season and has a 7.18 ERA on the season. His counterpart tonight is Flexen going for the Rockies and the right-hander is also having a very rough season. Flexen is 0-5 with an 8.08 ERA this season. He accumulated nearly all of those stats with the Mariners this season so it is not like his numbers are inflated because of Coors Field. He has only made one start since coming to Colorado. Also, the bullpens are two of the worst in the majors this season based on ERA stats so that also favors the over here. 6 of last 9 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs and that included 2 of 3 on the road and those 3 most recent Colorado road games have averaged 12 runs apiece. The Cardinals have not scored great of late but had averaged about 5 runs per game in 11 home games since All-Star break before coming off a 5-3 home loss to Twins yesterday. I look for them to get right back on track here. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis

MLB Thursday MLB 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:45 ET - The Twins Sonny Gray had a fantastic start to this season, particularly in April, but has not been overly impressive since then. In June he got hit at a .282 clip and in July he compiled a 4.85 ERA. His combined record these 2 months is 0-4. The Cardinals should enjoy another big day at the plate but I also expect the Twins bats to get in on the act today too after losing 7-3 yesterday. Minnesota will take advantage of a struggling Matthew Liberatore. Even in his recent minor league starts Liberatore has struggled but now he has been thrust back into the starters role for St Louis due to a shortage of arms for the rotation. It has not been earned based on performance as Liberatore has gone 3-5 with a 6.35 ERA and a .314 BAA in his 18 MLB appearances (15 starts). The Cardinals have seen 12 of 19 games since the All-Star Break total at least 9 runs. The Twins have seen 13 of 18 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Given the above trends and the pitching match-up here (including bullpens - St Louis bad, Minnesota mediocre) this one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Orioles won 13-3 yesterday and have won 3 straight games plus continue to pile up big runs. That should continue here against Kikuchi. The Blue Jays southpaw has a decent ERA but he actually got hit at a .293 clip last month and a .298 clip in May. I don't think he is that dominant and couple that with the way Baltimore is hitting and we should see plenty of runs here. Also helping in that regard is that Rodriguez is very likely to struggle on the hill for the Orioles. He has a 6.21 ERA this season and Rodriguez has a 7.36 ERA and a .299 batting average against in evening action this year. The Blue Jays can (and will) hit well at home here as they bounce back off an ugly loss. I am not saying Toronto will bounce back for the win but they certainly should bounce back in terms of getting their bats back on track after yesterday's ugly loss. The Jays have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 10 games and that even includes some recent lower-scoring results. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets @ 8:10 ET - I don't think Quintana can be trusted just yet. He is still working his way back into form after suffering injury during spring training this season. Quintana has been hittable so far and he faces a Royals lineup that has some extra confidence right now. Generally speaking, Kansas City tends to hit better at home than on the road and now KC enters this game riding a 3-game winning streak and having produced some solid games at the plate recently. As for the Mets lineup, they have plenty of bats that can give Greinke trouble here. The veteran right-hander has been hit hard in each of the last two months and his form shows no indication of anything changing anytime soon. Greinke is backed by a Royals bullpen that is one of the league's worst also. So New York has a big game at the plate but I also look for the Royals to score well too as their recent surge continues as they go for a season-high (for them) 4th straight win. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:20 ET - Something is not right with Charlie Morton. He has struggled in his last two starts with too many walks and too many big hits given up. The Angels will take advantage. At the same time, however, Los Angeles pitcher Griffin Canning has a chance somewhere between minimal and non-existent in terms of shutting down this red hot Braves team. Atlanta just continues to pile up runs and wins and Canning enters this one having been hit at a .316 clip this month. Also, he has allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings over his last 4 starts. The Braves will certainly take advantage. Atlanta is the top slugging team in the majors and also the top hitting team in the National League. The Braves also will take advantage of facing an Angels bullpen that is a weakness. Los Angeles has been winning though as they are 10-5 since the All-Star break and they have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Braves have also averaged 6 runs per game over their past 11 games and there is a reason this total is posted at double digits. Don't let the big number scare you as we should see at least a dozen runs scored in this one given the pitching situation and two clubs that are stepping to the plate with quite a bit of confidence right now. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The Reds and Dodgers played out to a 3-2 final yesterday and, surprisingly, LA won despite only 3 hits in the game. After that unusually low-scoring battle, I am looking for a very high-scoring match-up here on Sunday afternoon. It will be a hot afternoon in LA and the ball should carry better than usual here and these are two starting pitchers likely to get roughed up plus neither bullpen has been overly impressive this season. The Dodgers bullpen ERA ranks them 21st. The Reds bullpen WHIP ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in MLB. In other words, don't let the big line scare you here. This one should fly over the total. Note that Graham Ashcraft struggled badly in his lone appearance against the Dodgers this season. He has pitched better lately but a lot of that was based on match-ups. This is not a good match-up for him. Also, as for the Dodgers Michael Grove, he has pitched in the majors in April, June and July so far this season. He has had at least 4 appearances in each month and has been hit at over a .300 clip in each month! Grove will struggle here against a Reds team that has shown more and more confidence at the plate as this season has gone on. This LA team is ranked #3 in MLB for slugging percentage and the Reds are a top ten offense for on base percentage this season. Cincinnati had averaged 5 runs per game last 10 games before yesterday's tough loss. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game last 11 games. 10* OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - Last night's match-up was a rare low-scoring one between these teams as they have been flying over for a quite a while now. Remember that Thursday's game was a Chicago win by a 10-3 final as yet another over came in. Entering this series, the Cubs were off a 10-7 win Wednesday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 14 of last 16 Cubs games (88%) have totaled at least 9 runs and a 9.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 18 of last 22 (82%) games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again Thursday after a game Wednesday in which they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 11 of 15 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game in those 15 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game last 13 games and are so confident at the plate as they have won 9 of 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs too as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 16th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 24th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, the Cubs Jameson Taillon has struggled in all but one of his recent starts and that was against a Yankees team he pitched for each of the last two seasons. Other than that one revenge game he performed well in, he has allowed 35 hits in about 26 innings over his other 5 recent starts. The Cards Adam Wainwright is a guy who had a fantastic career and most of that was spent throwing to batterymate Yadier Molina. He has retired now and Wainwright is now 41 years old and those two factors have helped lead the way to him getting destroyed throughout this 2023 season. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis

MLB Thursday 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:45 ET - Cubs off a 10-7 win yesterday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 13 of last 14 Cubs games (93%) have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 17 of last 20 games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again yesterday but they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona yesterday after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 10 of 13 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 13 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.6 runs per game last 11 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 17th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 23rd. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Steele has been struggling some in July and is getting hit at a .316 clip this month. The Cards Mikolas is struggling a bit again and has been hit hard last two starts. Also, in home starts he has struggled in 3 of last 4 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Wednesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 12 of last 13 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and 8.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 16 of last 19 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox bullpen struggled again yesterday and remember they were off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 7 of 10 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.3 runs per game last 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 25th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Stroman has been struggling bad dating back to late June and Lynn is struggling again and having another rough season. Lynn has a 6.18 ERA this season and Stroman has struggled in 4 of last 5 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Both Rodon and Quintana have hardly pitched this season. Yesterday's game was a 9-3 final and I am looking for another high-scoring battle today. The Yankees had won 3 straight games before the loss yesterday and they scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 3 victories. The Mets have won 5 of 8 games and have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 7 games. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-2 win Sunday and 11 of last 12 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 15 of last 18 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox are off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 6 of 9 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7 runs per game last 9 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 26th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Kopech has had major command issues for the White Sox with 24 walks and 11 earned runs over his last 18.2 innings. Yes his walks allowed have been crazy! As for the Cubs starter (Hendricks) he is off a strong start but this was preceded by allowing 9 earned runs on 18 hits (6 homers!) in just 10 innings of work. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago

MLB Monday OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros have a solid bullpen but the Rangers bullpen is actually one of the worst in the majors for team ERA. That could be an issue here for sure as Jon Gray may not last long in this one. The Texas right-hander has allowed 38 hits in less than 30 innings of work spanning his last 6 starts. Though Gray gave up no earned runs in his last start he was hit hard and this followed a 5 start stretch in which he allowed 19 earned runs in about 25 innings of work! Houston's Brandon Bielak has pitched better last couple starts in July but had a rough June and faces a tough Rangers lineup here. Not only is Texas off an 8-4 win yesterday, the Rangers last 13 games have averaged 11 runs per game and 9 of the 13 games totaled at least 9 runs. The posted total on this game is, in fact, a 9 and the Astros should hit very well per the struggles of Gray and the Rangers bullpen. However, the Texas bats should answer the call as well as the Rangers have averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their 9 games since the All-Star break. The Astros also have averaged 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star break. Don't be surprised if we see each team reach the 5-run mark in this one. OVER 9 in Houston

MLB Monday OVER 9 -115 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - Not concerned with who the starting pitchers are. These are the two worst bullpens in the National League based on relievers combined ERA so far this season. Also, the Nationals won 6-1 yesterday and 7 of their 8 games since the All-Star break, prior to yesterday's game, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Rockies are off a 3-2 extra-innings loss yesterday but had scored an average of 5 runs per game and gone 5-2 in their first 7 games, before yesterday's defeat, after the All-Star break. OVER 9 -115 in Washington

MLB Sunday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Light wind but still likely to be blowing out. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Cubs only once this season and it was here at Wrigley Field and he did struggle as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings and now he faces a tough road match-up again as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined for 14 runs as they made up for a rare, strange result the day before when they combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. Remember that rare result Friday had followed a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game Friday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that Friday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had Friday.  Then yesterday's got it right back as the Saturday game easily flew over the total early. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with James Taillon here and the big right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and with teams hitting .320 against him - all of those are his stats in home games this season. More of the same expected here as he also is 0-4 with an 8.76 ERA in his 6 day starts this season and opponents are hitting .330 against him in those games. Both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:35 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.47 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a starting pitcher likely to struggle plus another team going with a bullpen game and you have a great set-up here. Scott Alexander expected to start for the Giants and he is merely just an opener here and Anthony DeSclafani will likely get the bulk of the work here. That is noteworthy as Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 31 earned runs in his last 40 innings and has been susceptible to giving up the long ball on the road. He has allowed 5 homers in 5 innings on the road spanning his last two outings. As for MacKenzie Gore, the Nationals southpaw has allowed at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts that have gone at least 2 innings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they scored just 1 run.  The Giants started out 5-2 after the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 8 games since the All-Star break have averaged 12.6 runs per game and 7 of the 8 have totaled at least 11 runs! The only one that did not was Friday's game which was 5-3 after 5 innings but then the scored died and it ended that way. This one will not die! It should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington

MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Wind blowing out. Mikolas has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of the last 7 starts in which he has gone more than 3 innings - that one was rain-shortened. In those 5 starts he allowed an average of 4.6 earned runs per outing! Also, the start right before all this (his first of June) saw Mikolas allow 10 hits in just 5 innings. I am just not sold on him being turned round completely and the right-hander faces a tough road match-up as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. All this after a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game yesterday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that yesterday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had yesterday. We get it back today. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with a bullpen game and both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.54 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. Alex Wood expected to start for the Giants and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 9 hits in 7 innings spanning his last two starts. He also walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings. As for Jake Irvin, the Nationals right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in 14 innings this month and only has 7 strikeouts in those outings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they faced a tough starter Thursday.  The Giants are 5-2 since the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 6 games since the All-Star break have averaged 13.7 runs per game and all 6 have totaled at least 11 runs so, with this total at 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 7 in a row! 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Justin Steele has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Jack Flaherty is off a strong start but was hit hard in 3 of his 4 starts prior to that. In those 3 outings, Flaherty allowed 29 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings! I also like the fact that the Cubs last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 8, prior to day yesterday, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 6 of their 7 games since the All Star break total at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8 or 8.5 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! Steele has been rocked in both of his July starts so his full season numbers are masking the fact that his current form is off. As for Flaherty, he has a 5.62 ERA in day games and the Cubs should bounce back after a tough night at the plate yesterday. Chicago had been hot at the plate prior to yesterday. Also, a day game at Wrigley Field even with wind blowing in is still a nice set-up the way these two teams have been trending and with consideration to the starting pitchers. As always, my play is action on the starting pitchers! 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Marcus Stroman has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Steven Matz is 0-7 with a 4.86 ERA so far this season. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 8 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 7 have totaled at least 11 runs! The  Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 5 of their 6 games since the All Star break total at least 10 runs so, with this total at 8 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 9 in a row! Stroman is off a good start but this followed him allowing 15 runs (12 earned) in 14 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for Matz, he has a 6.03 ERA in road games and he is 0-6 with a 5.80 ERA in night games. So an evening game at Wrigley Field is not exactly a good combo for him! 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in write-ups each of the past two days, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom half of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have another great set-up here. Trevor Williams expected to start for the Nats and he has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 18 innings over his last 4 starts.  Kyle Hendricks expected to start for the Cubs here and he is 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA in evening action this season and he enters this start having  been completely destroyed in his last two starts. This includes allowing 6 homers in his last two outings.  Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 7 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 6 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 11 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 12 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in yesterday's write-up, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here and he is off a rare strong start but this followed him having allowed 30 earned runs on 62 hits on 45 hits in his 8 starts that preceded that rare strong outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Jameson Taillon, he also is off a rare strong start and but was struggling before that. Also, the strong outing came against the Yankees team he went 14-5 for last season so don't be surprised if he comes out flat in this one after that rare gem against his former team. You know Taillon wanted that one bad. Prior to that outing, Taillon had allowed 42 earned runs in 49 innings over 11 starts leading into that one. Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 6 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 5 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 10 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 9 or 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 11 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - We get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start MacKenzie Gore here and he allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of the 5 starts that preceded his final (rain-shortened) outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Drew Smyly, he also was struggling before the break. In fact, Smyly allowed 14 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Smyly also has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 home starts! Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with nice weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 5 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 4 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - The Angels and Astros combined for 25 runs yesterday. This game should be another one that easily gets to double digits. First off, both bullpens got hammered yesterday. Secondly, the starting pitchers here are each likely to get rocked. Tyler Anderson has a 5.25 ERA and has been getting hit at a .278 clip on the season. The Angels southpaw facing an angry Astros lineup that will be relentless after they scored 12 runs yesterday yet lost the game! Los Angeles also should have another big day at the plate as Houston's Cristian Javier is struggling badly after a hot start to the season. He has allowed 18 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last 3 starts overall. Also, in terms of road starts, he has struggled in each of his last 3 away from home with 18 earned runs allowed in about 13 innings of work. The Angels and Astros sticks both pick up where they left off yesterday and the bullpens likely to again struggle. Keep in mind, the Angels have had 4 straight games and 6 of last 7 all total at least a dozen runs! All signs point to this one doing the same. 10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Sunday 10* OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 3:10 ET - I am a little surprised this total has not dropped below an 11 but actually that should tell us all something here. The fact is that the markets are expecting the same thing I am here...that we get an over despite the fact the Yankees lineup has not been great and Gerrit Cole is on the mound for New York. Cole has very little experience at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the hot dry weather is going to be ideal for the ball to carry very well in the thin air of Denver this afternoon. As for the Yankees sticks, they did bounce back for 6 runs yesterday and they will take advantage of a struggling hurler here. Sure enough, after a shockingly good start to this season, Chase Anderson is back to reality for the Rockies. The Colorado hurler has not only been hit hard, he has been absolutely destroyed the last month and a half. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a slugfest. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I know Judge took batting practice yesterday but is still out for awhile and this Yankees lineup does not look good at all. However, this is still Coors Field and this is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and today New York will be facing a Rockies starter that has struggled this season. Also, behind Connor Seabold is a Colorado bullpen that ranks 27th in the majors with a 4.86 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better but, again, this is a tough place to pitch and the Rockies are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. Colorado will hit well again here just like yesterday's 7-run outburst but, this time, the Yanks join the party. New York will take advantage of Seabold as he is 0-4 in his last 4 starts with 24 earned runs allowed in 17 innings. As you can see, the Rockies hurler is not just struggling, he is getting destroyed of late. The Yankees Clarke Schmidt has an ERA of nearly 6.00 this season in his road appearances with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him away from home. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

SATURDAY PLAY as this now goes in Game ONE of Double-Header SATURDAY at 2:10 ET. Here is yesterday's write-up which still applies after the Friday rain out: MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - This game could be impacted by weather early and might get a delayed start but once they do get underway I am expecting a solid over here. The Royals on the run line at -2.5 runs are priced in the -115 range. In other words, solid chance they win this game by at least 3 runs. So, for example, if KC scores 3 the oddsmakers are saying odds are that TB scores 6. Of course that alone gets us to 9 runs and a push but I am absolutely expecting double digits in runs here. The Rays Tyler Glasnow has struggled on the road and also against lefties. The Royals have plenty of left-handed lumber in their lineup plus they do tend to hit better at home. However, while I do expect Kansas City to do some damage here, I also expect the Rays to go absolutely ballistic in this one! Tampa Bay should pound Alec Marsh. The young Royals hurler went 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in the minors. In this, his rookie season in the majors, Marsh is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and he has had an issue with too many walks also. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors and will also struggle here against a strong Rays lineup. The set-up, other than some early evening weather concerns, is perfect for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - This is a low total considering the teams combined for 20 hits yesterday plus the Rockies had 9 hits and 5 runs in the Friday win too. I look for the hits to continue here. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound and he is 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this season. The Giants send Logan Webb to the mound and he has allowed 15 hits in less than 12 innings in his last two starts. Webb has been solid this season but has a 4.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Total a little low for an afternoon game in San Francisco and considering the Giants bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics @ 6:40 ET - The Tigers and Athletics are two of the weaker hitting teams in the league but this one offers great value because Oakland has been involved in a number of higher-scoring games of late and the Tigers do tend to hit better at home. The A's 8 of last 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged a dozen runs per game! The Tigers 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 7 games have averaged 13 runs per game. Considering numbers like that and warm weather in Detroit for this one I feel we have a bargain line here at 8.5 runs. Yes Skubal was strong in his minor league rehab starts but this will still be his first start at the MLB level in nearly a year. As for the Athletics Sears, he is 1-6 this season and he has given up 13 runs (11 unearned) in his last 3 starts spanning 18 innings. More of the same here. The Tigers bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack and the Athletics bullpen ranks dead last this season. I would not be surprised to see each team to get to 4 runs apiece here and that would guarantee us of at least a 5-4 final here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Monday OVER 7 in San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped too low. The Giants Webb has decent numbers on the season but he had a 4.70 ERA in June and he has allowed 36 hits in 31 innings over his last 5 starts. As for the Mariners Woo, he has been stronger of late for sure and including at home. However, the fact is that he does have a 6.00 ERA in his 3 road starts at the MLB level and I would not be surprised to see him struggle a bit here. The Giants 7 of last 8 home games have totaled at least 7 runs. The Mariners 8 of last 10 games have totaled at least 7 runs. In fact, those ten games have averaged 12 runs per game. More of the same likely here. I fully expect 8 or more runs and feel the recent trending fully supports that expectation. OVER 7 in San Francisco

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies and Tigers off a low-scoring battle yesterday but both were trending toward higher-scoring games b before that. Based on that factor plus the weather conditions expected on a hot afternoon in Denver Sunday, look for plenty of runs in this one.  The ball will be jumping off the bats and both these guys have been homer prone this season. I like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but note that Seabold has allowed 9 homers in just 18 innings in his 5 home appearances (4 starts).  As for Manning, he is off a solid start but that was just his 3rd of the season and he allowed 4 homers in less than 12 innings of work in his first two starts. Both these guys could get rocked and neither bullpen is considered strong and I am looking for piles of runs to be scored in this one as a result. Again, prior to yesterday's 4-2 Detroit win in extra frames, both these teams had been trending to high-scoring ballgames. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The over is the play here. The Angels are expected to start Tyler Anderson and he has allowed 20 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts. The southpaw has a 5.54 ERA on the season and is getting hit at a .283 clip. The Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson has two good starts in his last six but in the other 4 starts he allowed 16 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings. This one shapes up to be another ugly one as the Angels are #5 in the league for slugging percentage. By the way, the Diamondbacks are right behind them at #6 in the league for slugging percentage. These are two potent lineups and, after last night's game was rather light-hitting and stayed under the total, look for a bounce back performance here. Plenty of runs likely.  10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels