Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 PM ET - Hot weather in Denver today and the ball is going to be carrying very well in this one tonight. The result is excellent line value with the over in this one. Yes the posted total on this one is big but, with conditions like this tonight as well as a very favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, this one will have runs aplenty. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler in this one and this will be the 3rd time he has faced them this season. Yes he has had success thus far but look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Rockies hitters. Last week's Buehler start was at Dodger Stadium and when he faced Colorado in early April that start was at Coors Field but with weather conditions completely unlike what will be seen tonight. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season. But the Colorado bullpen ERA at home is a 5.76 this season. That said the Dodgers hitters are poised for a big night at the plate too. Not only did they just face Peter Lambert last week in LA, now they get a shot at him in hitter-friendly Denver where Lambert has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings spanning his two starts there. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Lambert's last 3 starts. The over is 7-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. The over is 23-13-1 in Rockies home games this season. With yesterday's over (Dodgers were at Arizona), note that Los Angeles has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. All the over trending stays HOT in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - A lot of value here with low total posted on this game. I understand the low number of 7.5 (some odds makers opened up at 8) because Patrick Corbin had a great start versus the Marlins earlier this season and Zac Gailen had a great MLB debut last week. However, lets dive into the facts a little deeper and you can see why I am fading the line move on this one. The Nationals Corbin now has to pitch at Miami this time (first meeting was in DC) and the last time he pitched at Marlins Park he was rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings while allowing 3 homers! Corbin has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.91 ERA in road starts this season. The Marlins Gailen faced the team that drafted him (St Louis) last week so that was an emotional MLB debut for him. Yes he was successful in his 5 inning stint but it took 99 pitches to complete the 5 innings. The bullpen then imploded in that game and cost him a win. On that note, lets talk about these bullpens for a moment. The Nationals are the WORST bullpen in the majors this season based on team ERA and the Marlins certainly are NOT much better. That said, we've got a total of 7.5 in a game in which it wouldn't be a surprise if both starters got hit pretty hard and then weak bullpens also come into play. Note that the Nationals have won 7 of their last 10 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in doing so. Miami had won 6 of their last 9 games before yesterday's ugly loss and the Marlins had averaged 5 runs per game in winning 4 straight prior to that defeat. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 road starts. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Rangers and Tigers feature two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on both opponents batting average and team ERA for their respective bullpen work. Certainly that could prove to be an issue here but Texas right-hander Jesse Chavez is making his first "real start" since July of 2017. What I mean by "real start" is that he has been used as an "opener" this season but those are truly short stints. This is the first time Texas is using him in hopes of getting 5 or 6 innings out of him as a starter. That said, he may struggle the 2nd time through a lineup and also could struggle early in this start too. Why? Well he has allowed 7 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts at Comerica Park. The good news for Rangers fans here is that the Tigers starter is also likely to struggle. Jordan Zimmerman just recently returned from injury and certainly he was not sharp in his first start back. Detroit is now 0-5 in Zimmerman's last 5 starts and the over is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. That is due in large part to the fact that Zimmerman is 0-4 in those 5 starts and has compiled an ugly 9.58 ERA in those outings. The right-hander is coming back from an elbow injury and he could be limited here. With both starters unlikely to work deep into this game, their sub-par bullpens could be exposed in this one. Texas is scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Certainly the Tigers numbers are not good in terms of offensive production this season. However, other than a shutout last week, the Tigers did average scoring 5.3 runs per game in their other 4 games. Couple that with the history of Chavez struggling in this park and you have a recipe for some Detroit success at the plate in this one. Look for the over to move to 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 starts as the over also moves to 10-3 in Rangers Tuesday games on the season. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Although the Yankees CC Sabathia has had great success at home this season, I expect the lefty to get roughed up here. The last time Sabathia faced the Blue Jays in the Bronx was not that long ago (September) and he was rocked for 5 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings. Sabathia has allowed 5 homers in his last 9 and 1/3 innings against Toronto. The Blue Jays enter this contest with plenty of confidence at the plate. Toronto is off a 6-1 win Sunday and has won 3 of its last 4 games. Also, in terms of run production, the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. This one is likely to turn into a slugfest as the Blue Jays start Aaron Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is 0-8 in his last 8 decisions. Also, Sanchez is most recently 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his three most recent starts. He is 0-2 with 7 earned runs allowed in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against New York. The Yankees lineup comes into this game red hot. Prior to a 9-4 loss to the Astros yesterday, the Yankees had won 8 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in doing so. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being a 7-6 type game. The over is 13-7, including 3-1 this season, when Toronto is on the road in a game with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - Another high-scoring game yesterday as these two teams have now combined for 31 runs in the last two games. The Orioles are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 games as Baltimore has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game their past 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs their past 4 games. The Mariners are 18-5-2 to the over in their past 25 games! Seattle has allowed an average of 5.8 runs per game their last dozen games. Baltimore's Gabriel Ynoa is winless with a 5.65 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts while compiling an ugly 8.78 ERA in these outings. Incredibly, the over is 13-1-2 this season in Kikuchi's starts. The over is 22-6 in Mariners day games this season. This match-up also features the two worst bullpens in the American League this season as the Mariners have a 5.26 ERA and the Orioles have a 6.13 ERA on the season. With the way these starting pitchers and bullpens have been performing, plus the fact that both teams have hit well in recent days, this one has slugfest written all over it. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at an 11 and dropped to a 10.5 as of early game day morning.  I am well aware of the fact that Lance Lynn has pitched very well this season but he also struggles much more versus left-handed bats than righties. The White Sox have a number of left-handed bats and switch-hitters that could give him some trouble tonight. Also, with their 5-4 win last night, the White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged a respectable 6 runs scored per game in those 5 wins. The Rangers, despite the 5-4 tenth inning loss yesterday, have a very potent offense and have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season and 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. Texas should enjoy a breakout game at the plate tonight as they take advantage of facing the struggling Odrisamer Despaigne. He is 13-26 with a 5.05 ERA at the MLB level in his career and things are going from bad to worse for the White Sox right-hander. He is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his two starts this season. The over was 6-2 in the White Sox 8 games prior to last night's game staying under the total. The over was 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 games prior to now recording back to back unders at home (rare). Look for "normal" to return tonight with a slugfest at Globe Life Park in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - The Padres bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in road games. The Pirates bullpen has a 5.60 ERA in home games. San Diego starter Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA in road starts. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has a 5.71 ERA in home starts. Lauer has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Pirates. Musgrove has fared well in his two career starts against the Padres but both of those were at pitcher friendly Petco Field. This match-up at PNC Park will prove to be a much tougher one for him. Musgrove's two starts against the Padres both went over the total and the over is 2-1 in Lauer's three starts against the Pirates. The over is 10-2 in Musgrove's last dozen starts! The over is 6-1 this season when the Padres are playing after a day off. Also, when San Diego enters a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-1 this season. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 7-2 in Pittsburgh this season. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 we have excellent line value here. The over is also 11-5 this season in Pirates games against left-handed starters. The Bucs enter this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. The Padres enter this game having scored an average of 9 runs per game their last 6 games. Per all of the above, all signs point to this one cashing nicely for us. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Milwaukee's game flew over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. I know the Brewers had been trending under recently and, overall, the Reds have been trending under all season (including yesterday) but the situation here is conducive to an over. The Brewers are coming off a tough road trip and are happy to be back home. They will take advantage of facing a struggling Tanner Roark. The Cincinnati right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those outings resulted in an under but it certainly wasn't due to his pitching. Now Roark faces a Brewers team that has gotten to him for 7 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts against them. Milwaukee has their own concern in terms of their starting pitcher Thursday. Jimmy Nelson gets the start and the Brewers right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 innings combined in his first two starts this season (both this month). Also, Nelson certainly doesn't have good recent history against the Reds. In his most recent start against Cincinnati, Nelson gave up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 3-0 in Nelson's starts on the season. The Brewers have a .480 slugging percentage at home this season which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Reds have won 4 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Cincinnati scored 7 runs in their most recent road game too, also a victory. Both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - The Mariners got shut out at home yesterday and the 9-0 Royals win just missed going over the total. That has set up the type of situation I look for when it comes to totals. On Wednesday, the Mariners have the struggling pitcher on the mound so the Royals should keep scoring. At the same time, you know Seattle is poised to bounce back at the plate after a rare home shutout loss. The Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors this month. First off lets talk about Marco Gonzales. The Seattle left-hander is likely wishing he was not at home for this start. In his 4 home starts dating back to May 1st, Gonzales has been nothing short of awful. The southpaw has allowed 30 runs (24 earned) in just 15 and 1/3 innings. Those are horrible numbers of course and the KC bats have plenty of confidence here as they have now scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 3 games. The Mariners, prior to yesterday's shutout, had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last dozen games. They'll bounce back here against Brad Keller. I know that the Kansas City right-hander has some impressive numbers this season and a low ERA on the season. However, Keller has been hit quite hard in many of his road starts this season. In fact, prior to a surprisingly strong road start at Minnesota in his most recent outing, Keller had given up 19 hits in 13 innings spanning his two prior starts away from home. The Mariners have a quality lineup that is in bounce back mode and will enjoy success here. The over is 15-4-2 in Seattle's last 21 games. The over is 20-6-1 in Mariners day games this season and this one starts at 3:40 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - I am coming right back with the over in the Rangers / Indians match-up after losing by the slimmest of margins with yesterday's picks. Yes today's total is a 10.5 whereas yesterday's was a 9.5 but that is because of the pitching match-up here. Don't be fooled by the strong ERA of Zach Plesac and the respectable ERA of Adrian Sampson in this one. I will start with the latter. Sampson has been hit at a .287 batting average in his career and that includes opponents hitting .284 against him this season. In other words, his stuff is nothing special and I look for the Tribe to hammer him after being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss. As for Plesac, the 24-year old rookie started out like gangbusters in his first 3 starts but his most recent start (allowed 3 homers to the Reds) is a sign of things to come. That start versus Cincinnati was at home for Plesac and now he goes on the road for the first time in over two weeks. Not only that, he is facing a Rangers team that is the #1 scoring team in the AL when at home. Texas is averaging 5.9 runs per game in their 37 games played in Arlington this season. The Rangers have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 home games. Cleveland, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 road games. The Indians bats get back on track here and the Rangers sticks stay hot at home in hitter-friendly conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - Lance Lynn has strong numbers for the Rangers overall but even though he is undefeated in his home starts he has actually been hit quite hard in his starts in Arlington. Also, against left-handed batters Lynn struggles much more than against righties. That will prove to be an issue against the Indians because they are loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. Don't be surprised if Mike Clevinger struggles too. This is his first start at the MLB level since he hurt his back two months ago. In a rehab start at the AAA level he gave up 3 earned runs in just 2 innings. He is a hard thrower but that is actually the type of pitcher the Rangers have had success against in the past and Texas is a very strong hitting team when at home. Clevinger also may struggle a bit with his location as this is his first start in two months. The Rangers bats, especially when in Arlington, can certainly make pitchers pay for "mistake pitches" in terms of location. The Indians scored 8 runs in yesterday's win and they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 8 games. The Rangers are off an 11-3 loss yesterday on the road but they entered that game having scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland's Monday games this season. The over is 15-9 when the Rangers are facing a team with a winning record. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Indians have a strong bullpen but the Rangers do not and, with the line move down to a 9.5, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - The Twins have been hitting the ball very well but today have a "weak link" in their starting rotation taking the mound and that set this one up well to be an over. Of course the odds makers feel the same way I do and set this total as high a a 10 but the markets have already forced a move down to as low as a 9. This is the ideal situation I like to take advantage of in terms of value and I won't hesitate to step in on this one! The Twins Martin Perez is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The left-hander will be opposed by the Royals Jake Junis. The KC right-hander is unlikely to have success here. Junis gave up 3 homers in just 3 innings the last time he faced Minnesota. Also, Junis has allowed 9 homers in his last 6 road starts. Overall he has allowed at least 2 homers in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has had just 1 under in its last 10 games! The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 starts that Perez has made. The over is 18-11-3 in Twins games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. This one is set to fly over the total and I am going to take advantage of the value added by false perception on the part of the betting markets. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a wild one to say the least. The Padres came up with a huge rally in the top of the 9th and then won the game with another huge rally in the top of the 12th! The game finished a 16-12 San Diego win and both teams had to use 7 innings of bullpen as the starters for both the Padres and Rockies only lasted 5 innings. Another wild one is quite likely tonight and I like the fact that the total on this game dropped from an 11.5 to an 11 as that is offering up even more line value with this one. Both the Padres Eric Lauer and Rockies German Marquez are likely to struggle here. Marquez has been great on the road last season and this season but home outings have been a different story. Last season Marquez was hit at a .284 clip in home games and compiled a 4.74 ERA. This season Marquez has been hit at a .303 clip at Coors Field and compiled a 5.06 ERA. Lauer has made two career starts at Coors Field and both were nightmares. The Padres southpaw has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 6 innings spanning his two career starts at Colorado. Considering the likelihood of each starter struggling here, the fact that both bullpens got stretched out yesterday, and the fact that the ball will again be carrying very well at hitter-friendly Coors Field, this one has "over" written all "over" it! 4 of the 5 meetings between these teams in Colorado this season have resulted in an over. The over is 9-3-1 in San Diego's last 13 games. Each team scored a dozen runs yesterday and I look for the teams to, at the very least, combine for a dozen runs in this one Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's total was an 8.5 and moved to a 9 in some spots and those who had the over got burned. The game was 5-3 through 5 innings so only one run was needed the rest of the way but it didn't happen. Yes the Rays pen has been strong this season but they had struggled some of late. Also, the Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom of the 3rd of the majors but, inexplicably, there was not a single run scored in the final 4 innings of last night's game. I like coming back with the over in the very next game after one plays out like that and I especially like the fact that this total opened up as high as an 8 but has since dropped to as low as a 7 as of early Friday morning. The Rays Blake Snell has great numbers again this season but has a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed multiple homers in each of his 3 starts this season. The trouble with the longball is why he has a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts. Based on the above as well as the low total on this one following the line move, you can see why I like the over in this match-up. The Angels are averaging 5.7 runs per game their last dozen games. The Rays have suddenly been held to 3 or less runs in each of their last 3 games but, prior to this tough 3-game stretch, they had averaged 5.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Heaney allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start at Tropicana Field and the Rays again get to the homer-prone lefty in this one. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total to continue the high-scoring trend for these two ball clubs. The over is now 7-1 in the Mariners last 8 games and the Twins are 8-1-3 to the over in their last 12 games. That' right, three pushes and just ONE under in Minnesota's last DOZEN games! Look for the high-scoring ways of both teams to continue here as this is also a favorable pitching match-up for an over and the weather will be very pleasant in Minneapolis for this afternoon affair. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda and he got rocked for 3 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings in his first start back after returning from injury. The Mariners are starting Yusei Kikuchi and he is in a horrific slide. In his last 3 starts Kikuchi has allowed 29 hits (including 6 homers) in just 10 innings of work! The southpaw was successful against the Twins in a mid-May start but he has struggled since then and Minnesota will enjoy success in their 2nd shot at Kikuchi this afternoon. As for the Twins Pineda, he has allowed 6 homers in 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Mariners. The over is 19-5 in Seattle's day games this season and also a perfect 6-0 in their road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 9-1 this season in Mariners Thursday games! The over is 8-4 this season in Minnesota's games against left-handed starters. The over is 6-1 this season in Twins Thursday games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

NOTE: Derek Law now getting the start as an "opener" for the Blues Jays in this one. He has pitched only 18 innings in his 14 appearances out of the bullpen this season. Law has a 5.89 ERA. This play remains as a Top Play even though Law is now the opener. Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending under this month and we've got a big total (11) posted on this game. That would make this seem like a value spot for an under but the pitching match-up here suggests plenty of runs in this one! The Blue Jays Edwin Jackson is struggling badly this season and even though only 2 of the runs he allowed in his most recent start were earned, the fact is he allowed 6 runs in 3 and 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA on the season. He'll be opposed by the Orioles David Hess and he is 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA on the season. He had a great start against the Blue Jays very early this season but, since then, Hess has compiled an 8.20 ERA. The over is 3-1 in Jackson's last 4 starts and the over is 4-1 the 5 home starts Hess has made this season. The weather will also be favorable for an over at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. This venue is known as a hitter friendly venue and everything lines up well for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. The Orioles bullpen has a 5.61 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the American League. The last 10 times Baltimore has played a home game with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs, only 3 of the 10 games has resulted in an under! In other words, don't let the big number keep you away from this match-up as the Orioles and Blue Jays should both do plenty of damage at the plate considering this pitching match-up. Toronto had allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games before yesterday's under. The Orioles had allowed an average of 7 runs per game in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday. Look for both teams to put plenty on the board in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - These are two well-respected pitchers and that is helping to keep this total low. The key to the value is that both hurlers have struggled of late and so we have got some solid value here considering the way the Indians have been scoring runs. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has allowed 26 runs (21 earned) in the 32 innings spanning his last 5 starts! The Reds do have familiarity with him since they have faced him in prior season in interleague action. While this will be Cincinnati's Luis Castillo first start against the Indians, Cleveland still should enjoy success. Why is that? The Reds right-hander has had command issues of late. Though he is off a better start, Castillo previously allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. He'll be facing an Indians team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games for the Tribe. Bauer has allowed 4 homers in his last two home starts. Pleasant weather expected at Progressive Field this evening as well. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Charlie Morton has great numbers for the Rays but the A's lineup includes a number of guys that have enjoyed plenty of success against him. Don't be surprised when Oakland enjoys some success tonight against Morton. The issues for the Athletics is going to be slowing down the Rays. The A's are starting rookie Tanner Anderson. He has been pitching at AAA Las Vegas. At that level Anderson has compiled a 6.26 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) and now he'll be facing major league hitters so the likelihood of getting hit hard is certainly there! In terms of production on offense in this one, Oakland has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and they have averaged 6 runs per game. The Rays come into this one hot as well in terms of their run production. Tampa Bay has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games. Each of these teams has produced 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. That is definitely noteworthy here as getting this game to 4-4 guarantees us of a winning ticket as that means the game has to end 5-4 at the very least. Both the A's and Rays are each 4-2 to the over in their Monday games this season. Look for plenty of runs in this one...early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay  

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 3:05 ET - This is a contrarian play when looking at how well Frankie Montas has pitched for the A's this season. However, as long-time followers know, I go contrarian to public perception quite often and that is the case here as per usual. With this total at 11 or 11.5 runs many perceive it to be too high considering that Montas is 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA for Oakland this season. The key to the value is he is facing a Rangers team that has been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season and that tends to be particularly dangerous when on their home field. After yesterday's sweep of the double-header, Texas is 9-3 their last dozen games and the Rangers have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. On the season Texas is averaging 6 runs per game against right-handed starters and the A's are averaging 6 runs per game in road games. Oakland should have no trouble with the offerings of Rangers lefty Drew Smyly in this one. The Texas southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two outings and also got rocked by the A's when he faced them earlier this season. Smyly is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. Oakland is 16-8 to the over, including 5-1 this season, in road games in which they are a road favorite in a price range of -125 to -175. Texas is 7-3 to the over in Sunday games this season and the over is 14-7 in Rangers day games this season after Game 1 of yesterday's double-header had 15 runs scored and soared over the total. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Texas

TV Game of the Day - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 4:10 ET - CC Sabathia is a former Indian and this could be the last time he pitches at Cleveland. Though the veteran left-hander will be be amped up to have a strong start it is unlikely that will be the case here. He has been hammered in each of his last two starts at Progressive Field. Also, the Tribe continue to be stronger with the sticks of late. With their 5-2 win yesterday, the Indians have averaged a respectable 5 runs per game over their last dozen games. The Yankees, prior to yesterday's poor day at the plate, had averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 road games. Also, New York had scored 6 or more runs in 10 of those 11 road games. The Indians sticks should enjoy plenty of success as homer-prone Sabathia's struggles with the long ball continue. The Yankees southpaw has allowed 13 homers in his last 7 starts! The Yanks sticks should crush the ball here too as they take advantage of facing Cleveland's Adam Plutko. The Indians right-hander has been bouncing between the majors and minors this season and neither has gone well for him. Plutko has a 6.35 ERA at the MLB level this season and a 5.50 ERA in the majors in his career! In the minors this season Plutko has gone 1-3 with a 7.47 ERA! You can see why I am expecting the Yankees sticks to bounce back after yesterday's disappointment. Even including yesterday's under, the Yankees are an incredible 20-7 to the over in road games this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - The Pirates are 17-10 to the over this season when off a win. Pittsburgh is 10-5 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Pirates 6-1 win yesterday stayed under the total but, prior to that one, the over was 24-7-2 in their 33 prior games. Pittsburgh is starting Rookie Davis in this one and this will be his first start since the 2017 season. Out of the bullpen he has a 5.87 ERA this season. Milwaukee, just like Pittsburgh, is off a victory in which they allowed only 1 run yesterday. However, though that game stayed under the total, the over was 5-1 in the Brewers 6 prior games. Also, Brandon Woodruff gets the start in this one and the Pirates are proving to be a nemesis for him. The Milwaukee right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two career starts against the Pirates and that includes getting hammered by them on Saturday. Giving Pittsburgh a quick "second look" at him here is unlikely to help matters for Woodruff. He won't be fooling many sticks in this one. The over is 5-1 in Woodruff's last 6 home starts. The over is 3-1 this season when the Brewers are a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. The over trending for each of these teams resumes in a big way on Friday night at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and that game included the Blue Jays crushing the Yankees bullpen. Homers were aplenty in yesterday's games and I expect more of the same tonight. Toronto's J.A. Happ faces his former team here and I am well aware of the fact that he held them to 2 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings when he most faced them last season but he did allowed 7 hits in that start. The Blue Jays have plenty of confidence at the plate after last night's come from behind victory. The issue for Toronto, after scoring 11 runs last night, will be trying to stop the Yankees lineup from crushing them. That is a concern for certain with journeyman Edwin Jackson on the mound. The veteran right-hander has been a disaster since his first start last month. In 4 starts this season he has compiled a 13.22 ERA and been hit at a .390 clip! These are horrific numbers and unlikely to improve against a Yankees lineup that has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in the 16 games since mid-May. The Blue Jays have now scored 25 runs in their last 3 home games as they continue to pound the ball at Rogers Centre. The over is an incredible 20-5-2 in Yankees road games this season. The over is 7-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 9 home games. Look for more of the same in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Braves won 12-5 yesterday at Pittsburgh. That was the 5th straight Atlanta game to go over the total. As for the Pirates, the over is now 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs Pittsburgh is 7-1 to the over this season. The Pirates, overall, are a fantastic 19-9 to the over in home games on the season. Atlanta is scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Pirates have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. The Braves bullpen ERA ranks them only in the middle of the pack. In terms of starting pitching for this match-up, Atlanta is going with Kevin Gausman and the Braves right-hander is off a very poor outing. While one would think he should be in full bounce back mode here, the reality is that Gausman has an 8.31 ERA since late April and so getting back on track, particularly on the road, is not an automatic here. As for the Pirates, they are starting Joe Musgrove. The Pittsburgh right-hander is off a very rough month of May. Musgrove had an 8.10 ERA and was hit at a .302 clip in the month of May. That doesn't bode well for now facing a red hot Braves lineup. Considering all of the above, there should be runs early, often and throughout this contest. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in a number of shops as of early Tuesday morning. This is offering excellent line value with the over. The wind will be blowing out toward left-center in this one and there is reason to believe that both starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Reds Luis Castillo has given up 11 hits and walked 7 in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though he has had recent success against the Cardinals, the right-hander's current form suggests this will be a tough night for him. St Louis is at home and their lineup is very familiar with him. Castillo will be opposed by southpaw Genesis Cabrera of the Cards. The left-hander struggled in his MLB debut last week and that was against a Phillies lineup that has been struggling badly for weeks now! That is not a good sign for Cabrera as now he faces a Reds team that has been red hot. Another sign that points to struggling results being likely here is the fact that Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA at the AAA level this season before being called up. This is a guy that needs a lot more seasoning before he is ready to faced MLB hitters. I look for him to struggle badly in this one. The Reds have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 11 games and that is even with struggling at the plate in their 2 most recent games as they faced Fedde and Scherzer of the Nationals. Compared to those guys, Cabrera will look like he is throwing batting practice to the Cincinnati hitters in this one. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 road games. The over is 32-19 when the Cardinals are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Walker Buehler is off a rough start last week versus the Mets. The Dodgers right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, earlier this season, he allowed 5 earned runs in only 3 innings. As for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, he is also off a rough start. The Diamonbacks southpaw gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings of work against the Rockies. Ray has been having issues with command and he also walked 5 against the Dodgers in just 5 innings when he faced the earlier this season. LA demolished the Phillies yesterday to wrap up a sweep of Philadelphia! The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game during this latest hot streak as they continue to play like the best team in baseball. The over is 10-3 in Dodgers road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 12-6 in divisional games for Los Angeles this season. As for the Diamondbacks, they are 17-10 to the over in divisional games this season. Arizona is off a 7-1 win yesterday and they have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games. So you've got a pair of hot lineups matched up here and they are also familiar with the pitchers they'll be facing in this one. Couple that with a total posted at 8.5 runs and we've got great value. Each team just needs to get to 4 runs and we're guaranteed of a win as then the game has to end with at least a 5-4 final. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - Of course these are not the most impressive lineups in baseball by any stretch of the imagination. However, I like the fact that the Marlins exploded for 9 runs in yesterday's game, the Padres front-end of their lineup is solid, and this total is as low as a 7.5 in big books as of early game day morning. San Diego, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of their last 10 games. In the Padres 7 victories, they averaged 6.4 runs per game. They can bounce back here while I look for the Marlins to build off yesterday's 9-run outburst. Yes, San Diego's Matt Strahm has strong numbers this season but his fastball velocity has decreased since getting moved up into the starting rotation for the Padres this season. Trevor Richards gets the start for Miami here and he is off a great start. However, the right-hander previously allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Also, Richards has allowed 21 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. He allowed 4 or more earned runs in 2 of those 3 road outings! Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Sunday games this season. Also, this total is likely to move back up to an 8 today and the over is 11-5 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.24 ERA this season and that ranks them 2nd to dead last in the National League so far this season. Petco Park is known as a pitchers park but it is a little more hitter-friendly in day games and this one gets under one at 3 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - These teams scored a bunch of runs early yesterday and then also got to the bullpens later. That is not a surprise as the Pirates bullpen has been among the worst in the majors this season while the Brewers rank only in the middle of the pack. With that said, a repeat today (and another high-scoring game) is quite likely. Of course same bullpens involved and Friday also features two struggling starting pitchers. Jhoulys Chacin gets the call for the Brewers and Chris Archer gets the call for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh right-hander has not lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts and he has compiled an 8.74 ERA during this stretch. The Milwaukee right-hander has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts and has allowed 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning those two outings. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 games after last night's game soared over the total. In the month of May, only 6 of Pittsburgh's 28 games have gone over the total. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Pirates are 4-0 to the over this season. The Bucs have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The Brewers have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in their last 7 games. Also, the weather conditions are projected to be favorable at PNC Park on Friday evening. All signs point to another game getting to double digits in runs here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - It has been a very cool May in Denver but temperatures today will rise to near 70 degrees and hitter-friendly Coors Field also sees the ball carry even better in day games! This one starts at 1 PM local time and should involve plenty of fireworks from both lineups. The Diamondbacks Taylor Clarke is a rookie right-hander whom will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. More often than not rookies get pummeled in their first experience here. I feel this is especially likely with Clarke because he has faced the Giants and Rays in his only two MLB starts. Both those teams in the bottom third of the majors for runs scored this season. Now Clarke faces a Rockies team that is #1 in the majors for scoring at home as they average 6.0 runs per game in games played in Denver. The issue for Colorado today is their own starting pitcher is likely to struggle too. Kyle Freeland is having a very rough season. The Rockies southpaw has an 8.65 ERA in home starts this season. Those 5 outings are 4-1 to the over and that included Freeland getting pummeled by these same Diamondbacks for 8 earned runs in 6 innings earlier this month. He allowed 3 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent home start as well. Freeland was pounded by the Orioles in that start and I look for more big hits in this one as his struggles continue against a divisional foe whose lineup is very familiar with his offerings! The over is 13-6-2 in Arizona's games against left-handed starters this season. The over is 11-6-1 in Rockies day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's series opener went over the total and that snapped a stretch for the Astros that had seen them trending under in a big way. I wouldn't be surprised to now see Houston trending toward the over for a bit. Based on the pitching match-up today it looks great for another over. The Cubs are starting Jon Lester and he is struggling badly. The veteran southpaw has allowed 12 runs (9 earned) in just 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, the Chicago lefty has been hit very hard and has allowed 34 hits in the 21 innings spanning his last 4 starts. In the first two starts of this 4-game stretch Lester managed to escape damage but, as expected, the fact he has become very hittable has caught up to him as he has been rocked in his last two starts. As for Astros starter Corbin Martin, he had a great MLB debut but has struggled ever since. In his last two starts Martin has been fortunate he has not allowed even more earned runs than he has because he has struggled badly. The young right-hander has given up 11 hits plus walked 5 in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cubs have gone over the total in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 games! Chicago has averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this strong stretch at the plate. Even though Kris Bryant is likely out again today, Jason Heyward is expected to be back in the lineup today. Keep in mind both missed yesterday's game and it still flew over the total. As for the Astros sticks, they should enjoy facing Lester as lets not forget he got hit at a .303 clip after the All Star break last year and he is showing signs those struggles have carried into this year. He has been hit at well over a .300 clip in his last 4 starts. Also, though the Astros pen has been a strength this season, the Cubs pen has blown 11 of 21 save opportunities! 10* OVER the total in Houston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - Rick Porcello has been pitching surprisingly well for Boston. However, the Red Sox right-hander faces a tough match-up here as the Indians gave him some trouble last season. Also, it will be a warm afternoon at Fenway Park this afternoon and the wind direction is a little uncertain as of early this morning but there are some forecast models showing it could be blowing out toward left field at a decent clip. With mild temperatures an afternoon game at Fenway Park can get quite crazy and, long-term, Porcello is known for giving up the long ball. The Indians, overall, have struggled at the plate for much of this season but this is a favorable match-up for them. Porcello has struggled more against lefties this season and he also has been roughed up in day games this year. Of course this is an afternoon game and, also, the Indians lineup is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. As for the Cleveland pitcher in this one, Jefry Rodriguez will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. I don't expect it to go well at all. The right-hander is 0-2 in his last two starts and he allowed 3 homers in these outings plus gave up 4 earned runs in each outing. He's facing a Boston lineup that is known for pounding the ball when at home. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 this season in Cleveland's Monday games. I am well aware that Rodriguez starts have trended under all season long but there is a reason this total will get steamed today by the sharps. Its all about the match-ups! Look for the over to improve to 9-2 in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies are starting German Marquez here and, like most Colorado pitchers, he is much better on the road than we he is at home. In his starts at Coors Field, Marquez got hit at .284 clip last season while compiling a 4.74 ERA. This season the numbers are even uglier as the Rockies right-hander has been hit at a .339 clip and compiled a 5.34 ERA in his starts at Coors Field. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during this stretch. Coming off a 9-6 loss yesterday, look for the Colorado sticks to jump all over David Hess. The Baltimore right-hander leads the majors in home runs allowed and now makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is not a good scenario for Hess! This is particularly true on a warm afternoon in Denver with low humidity as the ball is likely to be jumping off the bats. Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA this season and he has allowed 17 homers in 10 games (9 starts). Last year Hess went 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA on the road. Hess had a 6.06 ERA pre-all star break last year and is struggling even more in the first half of this season. A trip to Coors Field certainly is unlikely to result in improvement for him. Last but certainly not least, the Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. The Rockies bullpen, as you would expect, struggles more at home where they have an ugly 5.47 ERA on the season. In other words, runs early often and throughout this matinee affair at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Lucas Giolito has surprisingly good numbers this season. But lets look at who he has faced recently. The White Sox right-hander, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has faced the Blue Jays twice plus the Royals and the Indians. None of those teams are known for their prowess at the plate. Note that Giolito's first start this season was also against the light-hitting Royals and was also a strong start. So how has he fared in his starts against quality teams this season? Giolito's other 3 starts have seen him allow 14 runs (12 earned) in 14 and 1/3 innings. Thursday he'll be facing an Astros lineup that is one of the best in baseball plus he is catching the Astros a day after his White Sox team upset Gerrit Cole and company in embarrassing 9-4 fashion. In other words, Houston is highly likely to be zoned in and respond well today at the plate. The issue for the Astros today will be their young starting pitcher Corbin Martin. The rookie right-hander struggled badly in his 2nd start after having a very successful start in his MLB starting debut. This is normal for a rookie pitcher. They are going to encounter early problems as they get adjusted to the MLB level. Martin is very likely to struggle Thursday against a White Sox team that is surging with confidence at the plate after putting up 9 runs yesterday. The over is 10-4-1 in Houston's games against teams with a losing record this season. In the 7 games this season with the Astros as a home favorite of -175 to -250, only 2 of the 7 have resulted in an under. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are red hot at the plate and, in theory, could win this play for us practically all by themselves just with their own bats! Sound too good to be true? Consider that the Yankees have now won 3 straight games and scored at least 10 runs in all 3 of those victories! Also consider that New York will be facing a struggling Orioles starting pitcher, Daniel Straily, and a Baltimore bullpen that ranks dead last in the American League. The Orioles relief work this season has compiled a 6.12 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better than that but still only ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA this season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Straily is 0-3 with an 11.78 ERA in his 5 home appearances (4 starts) this season. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .388 against Straily at Camden Yards and now he faces what has been the hottest lineup in the league over their last 3 games! As for Yankees starter CC Sabathia, he made 4 starts against the Orioles last season and walked away with just one victory! In those outings the southpaw compiled a 5.14 ERA and allowed 5 homers in just 21 innings of work. The veteran lefty is winless with a 4.70 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. The Orioles certainly are not a great hitting team but they have had success against Sabathia and they do tend to be stronger at home than on the road. With scoring 4 runs yesterday the Orioles have scored between 4 and 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, when the Orioles are off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs, the over is now 6-1 this season! The Yankees are an incredible 15-4 to the over this season in road games! More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - High temperatures will be close to 70 degrees in Pittsburgh today and both of these teams were off yesterday. That means both lineups should be fully stacked and in good shape here and we've got a very low total to work with here. The reason for the low total makes sense because it is based on the long-term reputation of both German Marquez and Chris Archer. However, the low total is also creating a ton of value when you consider the fact that both Marquez and Archer have been struggling plus the fact that both of these teams have been trending over for an extended stretch! The over is 12-4-1 in the month of May in Pirates games. Also, the over is 16-4-1 in the Rockies last 21 games! Colorado has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 9 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games. The Rockies Marquez has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and all three of those outings resulted in an over. The Colorado right-hander has allowed 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The Pirates Archer has a 10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and each of his last two outings have resulted in a over. The Pittsburgh right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. When playing after a day off the Rockies have had only 2 unders in 8 occurrences this season. The Pirates are a long-term 28-16 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - These lineups are very familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. The Yankees JA Happ has already faced the Orioles 3 times this season! In those starts the Yanks southpaw has allowed 5 homers in only 13 and 2/3 innings of work! The Orioles Andrew Cashner will be facing the Yankees for the third time already this season. The Baltimore right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work against the Yanks this season. I am well aware of the fact that Cashner was stronger at Yankee Stadium last week and has some decent home numbers this season, but all this repetition for these pitchers against the same hitters so frequently is going to lead to troubles tonight. It is going to be very hitter-friendly conditions in this one as the weather continues to warm along the east coast in what has been a later spring than usual this year. Note that 16 of the last 22 meetings between these teams (including all 3 this season!) have gone over the total. The Yankees are 13-4 to the over in road games this season. As a home dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Orioles are 8-4 to the over this season. More of the same expected Monday as note that the O's also have the worst bullpen in the American League with a 5.96 ERA on the season. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 1:15 ET - Perfect set up here in many ways. Yesterday's game was a 6-1 Rangers win that stayed under the total so that is helping to keep this total off the radar of the betting markets as, to many, a 10 may look too big. The fact is that this should be an absolutely slugfest. The temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon in Kansas City. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers bullpen (4.87 ERA) and the Royals bullpen (4.59 ERA) both rank among the worst in the majors! As for the starting pitching match-up here we have Lance Lynn for Texas and Homer Bailey for KC. The fact is that Lynn has seen his better years at the major league level. He has a 5.48 ERA this season and a 5.13 ERA in his career starts against the Royals. Lynn allowed 3 homers at Houston in his most recent start and this followed an outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. As for Bailey, he is off a rare strong start. Yes, prior to a solid outing against the Phillies, he also was successful but that was against the punch-less Tigers. In his two outings prior to that Bailey gave up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work. From 2015 to 2018, Bailey was hit at a better than .300 clip all 4 seasons and he compiled an ERA north of 6.00 in those 4 seasons combined. He has trended better than usual early this season but still his overall numbers are not that impressive and you know a regression to the mean is right around the corner. Look for it to begin today in very hitter friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The over is 10-2 in Rangers day games this season. The over is 19-8 this season in Royals games when they are off a loss. KC also is a solid 13-7 to the over in day games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:40 PM ET - This total dropping to a 7.5 has opened up some great value with the over. Of course the total was low to begin with because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Arizona. Chris Archer goes for Pittsburgh and, though not at Greinke's level, he also is a respected pitcher. However, the key to the value here is the low total combined with a couple other key factors. For one thing, Archer has been out for a couple weeks with right thumb inflammation. I don't expect him to be operating at his highest level in his first start back. He has a 5.73 ERA on the road this season and struggling more away from home is not a new trend either. Entering this season, Archer had a 4.92 ERA away from home in the past 3 seasons combined. Greinke does have a history of success against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has been extra scrappy of late and playing their best ball of the season. I would not be surprised to see them enjoy some moderate success today against Greinke as the Bucs have won 9 of their last 13 games. With yesterday's 6-2 win here at Arizona, the Pirates have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their past 10 games. The Diamondbacks, prior to being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their past 11 games. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times the Dbacks were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. The Pirates over was 8-2-1 in May prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. Since April 21st, Pittsburgh has recorded back to back unders only ONE single time. That said, though this may be viewed as a contrarian play here I look for this game to get over the total as the hitters are going to surprise in this one. There are 15 teams in the National League and, in terms of bullpen ERA this season, the Pirates rank 12th and the Diamondbacks rank 13th. We should be in line to get some late inning runs if needed but I do expect some runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am well aware that the weather will be chilly in Boston tonight and that Chris Sale is off a pair of strong starts. However, the fact is that both of these lineups are currently knocking the cover off the ball and also the Rockies Kyle Freeland has been struggling badly. As for Sale having back to back strong starts, one was against his former team (White Sox) and he reared back for a little extra juice in that one no doubt. The other one was against the miserable and downtrodden free-swinging Orioles. Give him credit for a pair of spectacular starts but lets not forget he has seemed a little "off" for much of the time early this season and now Sale faces a Rockies team that has scored an average of 8.2 runs per game so far in the month of May. That is all because of home games at Coors Field though, right? Nope! Actually Colorado has scored 11 runs in EACH of their two road games this month too. The fact is that the Rockies are a very confident team at the plate right now and, speaking of that, so too is Boston! The Red Sox enter this game having scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in the month of May! You can see why I like this over at 8 runs considering EACH team is averaging 8 runs per game this month! Also, Freeland enters this start with an 8.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox .267 batting average at home is one of the best in the majors. The Rockies .470 slugging percentage against lefties is one of the best in the majors! The over is 8-3 this month in Boston's games and 9-1 this month in Colorado's games. The over is also 12-5 this season when the Rockies are off a win. The over is 32-15 (including 5-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The weather will be chilly this evening in Chicago but we've got a low total to work with here and plenty of reason to count on this one going over the total. The Indians Shane Bieber just faced the White Sox on Wednesday. Though he held them to 3 earned runs Bieber did allow 8 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Now Chicago gets a quick second look at him plus the rematch is at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for the lineup of the Tribe, they're also looking forward to a rematch here. The Indians just faced Reynaldo Lopez Wednesday and they were held to 3 earned runs but got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings. The point being that both these pitchers were hit quite hard in their match-up last week but managed to escape major damage. I feel they won't be so fortunate here. Cleveland has averaged 10 hits per game their last 5 games and they scored 5 runs in 3 of those games. The White Sox are off a 3-game set at Toronto that saw them average 5 runs per game. We just need each team to get to 4 runs here and then the game is guaranteed of no less than a 5-4 final. The fact is that with these lineups having just faced these pitchers I expect plenty of runs early and often in this one. Lopez is winless with 7.11 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Indians. Also, Cleveland's Monday games are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game

Game of the Week NL Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Both starting pitchers have question marks and both are likely to get pounded here. The Diamondbacks are starting Zack Godley. The Arizona right-hander had been removed from the starting rotation after struggling in the majority of his starts this season. Though Godley has shown improvement coming out of the bullpen recently, don't be surprised if the struggles in the starting role quickly resume as there is a difference between a starters mentality and coming out of the pen. Godley has a 6.26 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Braves. This season Godley has a 7.58 ERA in his six starts. The Braves will be starting Max Fried in this one. He took a line drive off his throwing hand in his most recent start. Don't be surprised if that is in the back of his mind in this start and he doesn't throw as well as usual. Complicating matters for Fried is the fact that the Diamondbacks are crushing southpaws this season. Against left-handed pitching Arizona has a .293 batting average and .524 slugging percentage as they lead the majors in both categories against lefties. Also, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom third of the majors. This will be the Diamondbacks 15th game against a left-handed starter this season and, thus far, only TWO of those games have resulted in an under. That strong trend continues here and, just like yesterday's game, this one gets over the number! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this looks like it should be a pitchers duel. However, so did yesterday's game. On Friday Pablo Lopez (2.00 ERA L3 starts) and Zack Wheeler (2.70 ERA L3 starts) matched up. The result? 13 runs on 25 hits for the two teams and 19 of those hits did come against the two starters. That is part of the reason I am all over (literally!) the low total posted on Saturday's game. Yes, Jacob deGrom has a great reputation as well as some excellent recent numbers but this total is simply too low. Not only might the Mets get 7 runs by themselves but, keep in mind, deGrom has been roughed up in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. He dominate the Marlins earlier this season but Miami now gets another look and they are confident at the plate after pounding out double digits in hits yesterday. They have some hitters in their lineup whom have had some long-term success against deGrom. As for the Mets bats, they should have no trouble with Sandy Alcantara. He has been a very lucky pitcher as he has walked 13 batters in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts and yet he has a 4.70 ERA in these outings. Certainly it could be much worse and New York (happy to be back home after a lengthy road trip) pounded the ball yesterday and scored 11 runs. Alcantara had success against the Mets last season but he has not been the same pitcher this season. His recent starts have been very shaky even though he has faced the light-hitting Indians twice during this stretch. Alcantara in trouble here based on the way the Mets have been swinging the bats. Also, New York is 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season and so too are the Marlins. Additionally, Miami has had just 2 unders in their 8 games this season that had a posted total of 7 or less runs. The Mets have had just 6 unders in their 19 night games this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these teams are also both near the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - Fenway Park is well known as a hitters park. When there are favorable weather conditions the advantage to the hitters can actually be quite greatly enhanced. That is certainly expected to be the case Friday evening as the temperatures will be in the 60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip. Couple that with two strong lineups and a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have the perfect scenario for a slugfest. I am well aware of the fact that Erik Swanson has had some good starts for the Mariners but the key is that those came against an Indians team that is struggling badly at the plate early this season. The Seattle right-hander excelled in both starts against the Tribe but note that he got clobbered for 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his other two starts this season. Now Swanson faces a Red Sox team that has won 8 of its last 10 games. Also, prior to a tight 2-1 win Wednesday, Boston had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their previous 9 games during this hot streak. As for the Mariners sticks, they have excelled against lefties this season (except for against JA Happ yesterday). Seattle should resume hitting southpaws well here as Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a situation similar to Swanson's. The Red Sox left-hander has had strong starts against sub-par teams like the Orioles, White Sox, and Tigers. However, in the other 4 starts for Rodriguez this season he has allowed 18 earned runs in 18 innings! Note that the over is 9-1 this season in Mariners games against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 31-15 (including 4-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Nice situation here for a slugfest! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game went 13 innings which used up bullpen for each team. That means if either starter gets into trouble here - and both certainly could - there might be some tired arms called upon in this one. Even though the total has moved to a 9 in a lot of spots, the over is still offering great value here as day games in Oakland are much more hitter-friendly than night games. At night, Oakland Coliseum is known as a park that is friendly to pitchers. However, in day games - and particularly with the wind blowing out toward center - the ballpark is definitely a little more hitter friendly. That explains part of the reason why the over is 74-52 (including 8-3 this season) in Athletics day games. Also, the over is 15-9 in A's games against right-handed starters this season and also the over is 3-1 in Oakland's inter-league games. The over is 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch. Cincy is starting Tanner Roark in this one and he gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent road start this season and also allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start at Oakland. As for A's starter Chris Bassitt, he has good numbers early this season but he has only made 3 starts and the last two were against the Blue Jays and Pirates. Note that Toronto and Pittsburgh are two of the lowest scoring teams in the majors this season. That said, Bassitt is now facing a Reds team that has been producing runs as well as any team in the majors over the past 7 days. Per the above, you can see why both lineups should have big days at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - Off back to back shutouts and having scored a TOTAL of only TWO runs in their last THREE games, Toronto's bats might look dead in the water at this point. The fact is the Blue Jays lineup is weaker this season than in past seasons. However, the above factors are part of what is driving the solid line value here as this one is a positive match-up for the Jays sticks. The Twins are starting Kyle Gibson. Not only did the Minnesota right-hander allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays last month, he has a 7.56 ERA in three career starts at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The right-hander also has a 5.31 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-1 in those 4 outings away from home. Gibson will be opposed by Trent Thornton in this one. He is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his 4 home starts this season and only one of the four resulted in an under. Also, Thornton faced Minnesota last month and the Twins got to him for 4 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. In taking the first two games of this 3-game set, the Twins are now a red hot 9-3 their last 12 games. Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 9 victories. The Blue Jays entered this series having gone 3-0 in their 3 most recent home games and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game in the process. After facing tough starting pitching and struggling badly in the first two games of this series, this is the right match-up for the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track. As a result, the over improves to 6-3 in Gibson's career starts against the Jays. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:35 ET - With yesterday's game going over the total early, the over is now 11-4 in the Yankees last 15 games. As for the Mariners, they have been trending over all season long as they are 26-8-3 to the over on the year. Seattle is 13-3-1 to the over in road games and also 15-5-3 to the over in night games. The Mariners have a slugging percentage of .531 in road games this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Yankees are hitting .266 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them #2 in the American League. New York will face southpaw Marco Gonzales in this one. Gonzales faced the Yankees once last season and it was here in the Bronx and he gave up 3 homers in an ugly outing that saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings of work. With mild weather in the forecast in New York tonight the ball should be carrying well again at Yankee Stadium. Starting for the home side in this one is Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees right-hander has good numbers against the Mariners in his career but he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just doesn't seem quite right and the way Seattle has swung the bats this season they are a different team compared to the one he faced last season. Tanaka has given up 5 homers in his last 4 starts and these haven't been particularly long outings either. Another plus for the over here is that the Mariners bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors this season. Though this total has moved from an opener of 8.5 to a 9 there is still plenty of value here in what could very well turn into a slugfest that goes over the total early just like yesterday's game did. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:05 ET - The Blue Jays lineup is not overly impressive but I expect they put up 5 runs yesterday and are fully capable of getting at least that again here. At the same time, the Rangers should match them run for run and that is why I like the over here despite the fact a big total is posted on this game. The fact is that the Rangers are averaging 6 runs per game at home this season. Also Texas has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Rangers Drew Smyly has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he only averaged 4 innings per start! Also, the Texas southpaw is returning from a stint on the DL as he was already dealing with arm fatigue and tightness early this season. Smyly's pitch count is likely to be limited and that will expose a Rangers bullpen that has ranked among the worst in the majors this season. As for Toronto starter Clay Buchholz, he has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and also note that he has a 5.58 ERA in road starts this season. It has been a few seasons since he has pitched at Arlington but that certainly has not been a good venue for him! Buchholz allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts in Arlington. Both these pitchers are homer-prone and it will be hitter-friendly conditions on a warm afternoon in Texas and in a hitter-friendly park. The ball should be jumping off the bats here. The over is 41-23 when the Blue Jays are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Toronto is 11-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is a long-term 43-25 when Texas is at home with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Both the Twins Jake Odorizzi and the Yankees JA Happ are off strong starts. However, there is much more than meets the eye as the surface here. Happ is winless with an 8.16 ERA in his three home starts this season. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his road starts this season. The Yankees are 4-2 to the over in Happ's starts this season while the Twins are 3-0 to the over in Odorizzi's road starts this season. The over is 10-4-1 to the over in Minnesota's road games this season after yesterday's game snuck over the total late. Part of the key was the bullpen work and these teams rank only in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA on the season. Considering that factor as well as the home/road dichotomy for the starting pitchers in this one, you can see why I am going with the over here. The over is 11-6 this season in Yankees games with posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I like the fact we've got good value here with this total at an 8.5 at Yankee Stadium. It will be mild weather in the Bronx and the Twins .481 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers ranks them 3rd in the American League. Minnesota is averaging 6.4 runs per game on the road this season but their bullpen ERA is a 5.56 away from home. The Yankees, in home games, are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season. This one flies over as both starting pitchers struggle more than the markets are expecting. Their recent starts have been good but the home/road issues are no fluke so far this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Jerad Eickhoff is off a great start at home and also pitched well in his other appearance at home this season. However, though his most recent outing was impressive he faced a very bad Marlins lineup. Note that in his prior start Eickhoff allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings of work. He does have good stuff and gets a lot of strikeouts but now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 25 runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. Of course I am aware of the Nationals being without Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon right now (and the fact that Juan Soto may not start again tonight) but there is still plenty of pop in this lineup. Also, Washington is simply loaded with confidence when facing the Phillies. They have hit very well in this park plus have fared well against Philadelphia's bullpen. The flip side of this equation is that Jeremy Hellickson was successful in his lone start against the Phillies this season. However, the Nationals right-hander will likely get hit harder as Philadelphia's lineup now gets a second look at him in a span of about 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in the 5 meetings between these teams this season and, other than struggling against Hellickson, the Phils lineup averaged 6.5 runs per game in the other 4 games. As far as the bullpens here, the Nationals 5.87 ERA ranks them dead last in the NL. The Nats bullpen .269 BAA ranks them dead last in NL too. Who is 2nd to last in that category? The Phillies bullpen with a .265 BAA. The point is we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game. The over is 9-5 in Washington's night games this season as well as 9-5 in Nationals divisional games this year. The Phillies over is 4-1 this season when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The odds makers are very sharp. When I first looked at the money line on this game I though to myself, "how can Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals only be in the -150 range"? Of course that was at first glance. Now, after analyzing it further it makes perfect sense. Now, that said, I still don't trust Dakota Hudson so I don't trust the underdog Cardinals either in this spot. But the direction I got pointed in was the over and I feel this is a very strong value play. The key to why this game was priced this way is because even though Strasburg appears to be back on track it has had more to do with whom he faced. His last two starts were against the Marlins and Padres. Note that prior to that he faced the Giants and struggled but the point is that those 3 teams are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the National League! On Thursday afternoon Strasburg now faces the highest scoring team in the National League! The over is 3-0 in his home starts this season and he has a 4.74 ERA in those outings. As for the Cards Hudson, none of his last 3 starts have resulted in an under and he has compiled a 7.53 ERA in those outings. Other factors that will help us here include the Nationals bullpen (6.02 ERA) ranking as the worst in the National League and also the Washington weather (temperatures in the 80s and possible breeze blowing out to right). The over is 8-4 in Cardinals day games this season. The over is 7-0 in Nationals games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As of early this morning there is still some 8.5 available on this one and, even those of you getting a 9 should not worry as I fully expect double digits in runs in this one! 10* OVER the total in Washington

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees @ 3:40 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, look for a much different type of game today. The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka and his pitches generated a lot of contact in his most recent start. He had been pitching well prior to that start but the fact Tanaka struggled to get any swings and misses at his stuff against a struggling Angels lineup is absolutely a sign he should get rocked again today. That said, there is great line value here with this total posted at only 8 runs. This is particularly true because I also do not expect much success for the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander had been pitching in Korea the past 4 seasons. He started this season strong in his first two starts but faced lineups that were slumping at the time. Speaking of struggling lineups, the Pirates are the team Kelly faced in his most recent start and that helped lead to a successful outing. But in his two prior starts Kelly allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in less than 9 innings of work. That said, he is being vastly over-rated at this early point in the season and, based on what I expect out of he and Tanaka today, this total is an absolute bargain at only 8 runs. Even with yesterday's result including, the Yankees are 11-3 to the over in road games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 8 games and haven't had back to back unders in over a week and a half. That won't change here either! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Chilly weather at Fenway Park in Boston Tuesday evening but that won't be enough to help these two struggling hurlers. Aaron Brooks shut down the Red Sox in Oakland on the first day of this month. But since then he has a 6.86 ERA in his last 4 starts and Brooks now makes his first ever appearance at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball much better since returning home. There were a couple exceptions when they faced tough pitchers like Morton and Glasnow but in their other 3 home games the past 6 days Boston has averaged 9 runs per game including a 9-run outburst yesterday. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brooks. Give him credit for an amazing first start this season against the Red Sox but their bats were really struggling early this season. Not only has Brooks struggled since then, he also has a career .289 batting average against at the MINOR league level. I do not mean to be disrespectful but when guys have been hit at nearly a .300 clip through all levels of minor league ball from rookie league all the way up they generally prove to struggle facing major league hitters! As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, he is off a RARE solid start but he faced the Tigers. He now faces an Oakland team that has averaged 5 runs per game their last 8 games and scored 4 or more runs in 6 of those 8 games. Porcello faced the A's once last season and got knocked around for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. This is a hurler whom has struggled with the long ball and allowed 2 homers in that start against Oakland too. Porcello is getting hit at .347 clip this season! Also, the Red Sox bullpen has a 4.74 ERA at home and the Athletics bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road so far this season. As you can see per the above, we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game! The over is 8-4 in Oakland's road games this season and the Red Sox are 5-0 to the over in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - When teams get a quick 2nd look at starting pitchers it almost always favors the hitters. That's because they just saw the offerings of that hurler and can be better adjusted the 2nd time around. This total is being kept low because Justin Verlander is a high quality pitcher. As a result, I like the value we're getting here with this total at just 8.5 runs as of early Monday morning. The Twins have been swinging the bats well and also will be at home this time against Verlander. That does make a difference. Minnesota won 4-1 yesterday and that marked the 11th time in their last 12 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. As for the Astros, they also are off a 4-1 win yesterday and that marked the 8th time in their last 10 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winning ticket with this over. The Twins have a .515 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Astros are hitting .271 on the season overall and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Though Jake Odorizzi held Houston to just 2 earned runs last week he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work and only had 2 strikeouts! He has now given up 7 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Astros plus he allowed 3 homers in the process. The Twins have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Houston has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 10 games. The over is 8-4 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - Lance Lynn had a 4.77 ERA and I watched many of his starts and it certainly could have been much worse. That is why the right-hander is bouncing around as this is his 4th team now in recent seasons as he has been with the Cardinals, Twins, Yankees, and now the Rangers. The right-hander is getting pummeled this season at a .302 clip and I expect the Mariners to pound him after getting embarrassed in yesterday's 15-1 loss to Texas. The over is 6-2-1 in Seattle's last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly defeat, the Mariners had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their 8 previous games. The Rangers lineup comes into this one red hot. Texas has averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 16 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.5 runs on 10.3 hits in their last 8 games. They'll take advantage of a young hurler whom is over-rated right now. Yes Erik Swanson has good early numbers but he has only made two starts. The young right-hander struggled in his 2nd start versus the Padres after excelling in his first start versus the Indians. The fact is that the San Diego team and Cleveland team he faced are two of the worst offenses in MLB early this season. Now he faces a Rangers team that has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors. Which team has scored the most runs? The Mariners! And also these two teams have a bullpen ERA that ranks each of them among the worst in the majors. All signs point to a high-scoring game here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:20 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way and it is the type of situation I love as we get extra line value due to market perception. This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 because of the fact that the Braves Max Fried and the Rockies Antonio Senzatela both have good numbers this season. Keep in mind it is still very early in the season though and Senzatela has made only two starts. One was against the light-hitting Padres at pitcher-friendly San Diego and in his other start Senzatela did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings against a Phillies team that otherwise has been struggling at the plate of late. As for Fried, yes he has great numbers early this season but his most recent outing was against an Indians team that has ranked among the worst in the majors at the plate early this season and he still allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Rockies just saw him for the first time about two weeks ago so getting a 2nd look at Fried will prove to be an advantage tonight. As for Senzatela, he faced the Braves last season and had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings. The rematch is likely to be worse as Atlanta enters this game having averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Rockies also have been swinging the bats better as they have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in the process. The point is that we can take advantage of a low total here thanks to market perception. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - I had the over in this match-up yesterday and, admittedly, caught a break. The game had a decent start in terms of run production but then stalled until the Red Sox had a huge bottom of the 8th. However, rather than shy away from coming right back with the same play (because of getting fortunate) I actually am recommending to again invest in the same play between the same teams today. One of the keys is that the Tigers bullpen has been a strength this season but yesterday's performance absolutely could be a sign of things to come. Likewise, the Red Sox bats have been slow to get going this season but yesterday's 11 runs scored absolutely could be the catalyst for the Boston bats to get hot. That said, the fact this total dropped to a 9 this morning offers value also as now we just need each team to get to 4 runs and we can't lose the play. Note that the Tigers have scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. Also, Detroit is averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Red Sox have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in those 6 games. Boston's Rick Porcello may have extra motivation going against his former team but that didn't help him the last time he faced Detroit. The Tigers got to him for 11 hits in 6 innings when he most recently faced them. Porcello gives up too many homers and that has continued this season and has played a role in his winless record and 8.49 ERA on the season. The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman also has struggled as he is winless with a 4.94 ERA on the season. He started the season well but has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Zimmerman's last two starts at Fenway Park have seen him allow 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts and 4-0 in Porcello's starts this season but 2-0 in Porcello's last two starts against the Tigers. Detroit is a long-term 27-12 to the over in Thursday games and the Red Sox are 3-0 to the overs in Thursday games this season. Lot of perfect edges here! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers are loaded with confidence after earning the sweep yesterday. Detroit has now won 4 of its last 5 games and averaged 11 hits per game in these 5 contests. The Tigers pounded out a dozen hits in each game of the twinbill yesterday. That included Detroit giving the Red Sox beleaguered bullpen plenty of trouble yesterday. Boston's bullpen ERA ranks them among the worst in the majors this season as they are far off the mark from where they were last season. I do look for the BoSox bats to bounce back today and that is why I expect this game to fly over the total because Detroit should stay hot at the plate as well. The Tigers will be facing Eduardo Rodriguez and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season as he has compiled a 7.20 ERA. The Red Sox will be facing Tyson Ross in this one. I am well aware that Ross has some decent numbers early this season but as he continues to throw hanging sliders, more and more damage will be done to his offerings. Ross has given up 9 runs in 12 innings in his last two starts but it is a bit "hidden" due to some unearned runs. He did allow 2 homers in his last start and, prior to that, Ross had more walks than strikeouts in his prior start. Also, his strikeout numbers are down in his last two starts. Both teams also had to use extra bullpen arms yesterday due to the double header. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field in this one at Fenway Park. The over is a long-term 53-35 (including 2-0 this season) in Detroit's games against southpaw starters. The over is 5-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts dating back to September of last season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies are without a couple of guys in their lineup right now but they still have plenty of solid hitters and sluggers up and down the lineup. After managing just 3 hits in last night's 5-1 loss to the Mets, look for the Phils sticks to bounce back in New York tonight. However, Zach Eflin gets the call on the mound for Philadelphia and he has not fared well at Citi Field. He is winless in his 3 career starts there and that includes compiling an ugly 10.13 ERA at Citi Field last year. The Mets are averaging a solid 6 runs per game in their home games this season and should get to Eflin here. However, New York's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler is also likely to struggle. The Phillies just saw him last week and though he fared quite well he did allow two homers. Also, the last time Wheeler faced the Phils at Citi Field, they got to him for 10 baserunners (7 hits, 3 walks) in less than 5 innings of work. 2 of Eflin's last 3 starts versus the Mets have resulted in an over. Though Wheeler's start against the Phillies last week resulted in an under, the over was previously 7-3 in his 10 prior starts against Philadelphia. The over is 9-2 in Mets night games this season and 8-3 in Mets games against teams with a winning record. That includes last night's under and so do these stats: the Phillies are 10-5 to the over in divisional games this season and also 9-5 to the over in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox (5.04 ERA) and Orioles (6.55 ERA) have two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season. Also, this total first opened up at a 10.5 yesterday afternoon but has now dropped to a 9.5 as of game day morning. Chicago starter Manny Banuelos is making his first start since 2015 as he has been working out of the bullpen. Baltimore starter David Hess had a great first start this season but then went 0-3 with a 9.24 ERA in his 3 starts that followed. Last season Hess went 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA so the long-term certainly shows his early strong outing versus the Blue Jays this year is the exception rather than the norm. The over is 4-2 in White Sox road games with a money line between +125 and -125. The over is 9-5 this season in Chicago's games against right-handed starters. The Baltimore over is 9-1 this season in home games. The Orioles over is also 8-3 this season in night games. The O's entered yesterday's action having averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. The White Sox entered yesterday's action having averaged 6.5 runs per game on the road this season. With the extra line value thanks to the drop on this total, this one gets my top play rating. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - The Rangers continue to swing the bats quite well at home. Even against Gerrit Cole yesterday, though they struck out a lot, Texas pounded out big hits and sent the opposing starter to an early exit. The Astros Colin McHugh is also likely to get hit hard here and, at the same time, the Rangers Shelby Miller has little shot of keeping the Houston sticks in check. Houston already saw the Texas right-hander early this month and Miller was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he walked 5 and allowed 5 hits in less than 4 innings of work. The Astros have stayed under the total in just 21 of their last 59 Sunday games. The Rangers have scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 home games. The over is 9-5 when Texas is a home dog of +175 or more. The over is 4-2 this season in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in Miller's home starts this season. McHugh has allowed 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts in Arlington. Both those starts went over the total and also each of Miller's two starts against the Astros in his career have gone over the total. Warm weather and strong south winds at Globe Life Park in Arlington also helps to produce hitter-friendly conditions here. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - I have been burned by the Yankees totals recently but the 3rd time will be the charm. Now things are getting over-adjusted by the markets and that leads to great value in a spot like this. The total on Friday's game is down to an 8.5 and this is even though temperatures will be rather mild and a steady wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at Yankee Stadium tonight. With good hitting conditions in the Bronx tonight and needing just 4 runs from each team in this one to guarantee a winner (game can't end 4-4 so we'd get at least 9 runs) this is a must play in my book. CC Sabathia had a great first start last week to open up his season but one should never over-react to just one outing. Also, the southpaw is facing a Royals team that has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games after yesterday's 6-1 win. I expect KC to stay hot and score their fair share of runs. The Royals confidence is growing as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. The Yankees had scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game in their 9 games prior to yesterday's poor effort. I look for the Bronx Bombers to bounce back strong against the Royals Jakob Junis tonight. The Kansas City right-hander has a 6.61 ERA and a .304 batting average against this season. He has consistently allowed 3 or more earned runs in all 4 of his starts. In their first 18 games this season, KC had just 6 unders. After last night's game stayed under the total, look for "normal" to resume tonight and take advantage of this low total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:35 ET - It is true that Homer Bailey is off arguably his best start since the 2017 season. However, the Royals right-hander faced an Indians lineup that continues to function as one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. Likewise, Yankees right-hander Domingo German has great numbers in his first two starts but he faced the two teams projected to be the two worst teams in the AL this season as he squared off with Baltimore and Detroit. Of course Kansas City is also projected to have a rough season too but don't be surprised when they enjoy success against German in the Bronx. The Royals got a big 4-3 win in 10 innings yesterday and confidence is a little higher than usual as KC has won 4 of its last 6 games and also averaged scoring 5 runs per game in its last 8 games. The Yankees also come into this game with a boost of momentum after a 2-game sweep of the rival Red Sox that saw the Bronx Bombers score 13 runs in the two games. The Yankees lineup has produced an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. Just on sheer averages alone you can see why it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-5 type game here and, keep in mind, with the total at just a 9 we only need to get each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee we won't lose the play as it would have to end at least 5-4. I am actually expecting each team to get to 5 in this one on a rather pleasant evening weather-wise in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 but has dropped to a 9 as many don't trust the Boston bats. Certainly they have struggled early this season and the Red Sox enter this game having scored a total of just 1 run in their last 2 games. However, that has led to great value here with the over and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move. The fact is that the Yankees J.A. Happ could be just what the doctor ordered in terms of the remedy for the Boston bats. The New York southpaw is winless with an 8.76 ERA in his first 3 starts this season. Also, Happ has allowed 8 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts against the Red Sox. As for Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi, he has had success in recent starts versus the Yankees. However, he is not right early this season. Eovaldi is winless with an 8.40 ERA in his first 3 starts this year. Now he faces a Yankees team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games after they erupted for 8 runs in yesterday's blowout win. In fact, the Yanks have averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 3-0 in Happ's starts this season as well as 3-0 in Eovaldi's starts this season. Only 4 of Boston's first 12 road games have resulted in an under. I look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Red Sox games against southpaw starters. Also, the Yankees over in divisional games is set to improve to 6-2 on the season. Look for both starters to struggle and the weather is certainly decent for mid-April in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:40 ET - The Twins have been swinging the bats quite well early this season except at home but that had a lot to do with typical cold spring weather in Minnesota. However, temperatures today in Minneapolis are warming well into the 60s and a bounce back at the plate is expected. Yes Aaron Sanchez has some impressive numbers early this season. However, it must be noted that the Blue Jays right-hander started the season by facing the Tigers and Indians. Those are the two bottom teams in the American League for batting average so far this season. Sanchez then faced the Red Sox but even they are struggling at the plate early this season. However, Boston did get him to for 4 runs (but only 1 was earned) as he labored quite a bit with 4 walks and 5 hits in his 5 innings of work. Sanchez gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings with more walks than strikeouts when he faced the Twins here in Minnesota last season. As for Twins starter Kyle Gibson, he is off to a very rough start this season. Gibson has a 7.71 ERA in his two starts this season and also a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays. The Toronto lineup is not a great one but they're building confidence as they've shown a knack for getting big hits. That is part of the reason the Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 6 games. The Twins have averaged 6.6 runs per game their last 5 games. The over is 39-19 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. The over is 4-1 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers bats are coming to life at home. They do hit the ball very well at home as a general rule thanks to the hitter-friendly home ball park they play in. On Monday temperatures will warm into the 80s in the Arlington area so it will be a mild evening for baseball and the hitters should again prevail. The Angels might even have Mike Trout back for this game but, even if they don't, look for them to build off Saturday's 6-5 win at Chicago against the Cubs. The pitching match-up here is conducive to plenty of runs. Trevor Cahill gets the start for the Angels here and he had an ERA north of 6.00 on the road last season. Also, the last time he faced the Rangers he walked 6 in less than 3 innings. That was a home start for him too. The last two times he has faced them at Texas he has allowed a total of 8 earned runs in 10 innings. The point is that this is not a good match-up for him and all 3 of those meetings occurred last season. As for Rangers starter Shelby Miller, he just faced the Angels a week ago and he struggled with command and allowed 4 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. Miller's only other start this season saw him also struggle badly with his command and behind him is an unimpressive Rangers bullpen. Just like Friday's 8-6 Rangers loss and Sunday's 8-7 Rangers win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 3:05 ET - A cold front moved through yesterday which is what led to the rain and severe storms that caused the cancellation of Saturday's game. Even though it will be cool in Arlington Sunday afternoon it won't be cold by any means and the wind blowing out at about a 10 mph clip also helps our over here. Brian Anderson gets the start for the A's and is over-valued right now. He has decent stats on the season but that was helped by, in his opener, facing an Angels lineup that has been stone cold. Since then, Anderson has actually been hit hard and had some command issues in his two April starts. He has managed to work out of the jams so far but that is helping lead to him being overvalued here. Keep in mind the Oakland southpaw went 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road starts last season! The Rangers counter with Adrian Sampson and he is making just the 6th start of his young career. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA and has been hit at a .280 clip at the MLB level. The Texas bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the lower third of the majors. The A's pen ranks in the middle of the pack but the Rangers .462 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 3rd in the AL this season! Oakland has a sizzling hot .533 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 4th in the majors this season! Just like Friday's 8-6 A's win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets @ 7:20 ET - Yesterday's game was 6-2 by the middle innings but finished that way and stayed under the total. I don't expect a repeat of that here. These two teams each rank in the lower half of the league for bullpen ERA so far this season. Also this match-up features a pair of unimpressive southpaw starters and the Braves are ranked 6th out of 30 for slugging percentage versus lefties this season while the Mets are ranked 6th out of 30 for batting average versus lefties this season! Both teams should swing the bats well and Jason Vargas is pitching on long rest. That is something that plagued the Mets lefty last season. The Braves Sean Newcomb is off a strong start but it came against the downtrodden Marlins. His prior outing was against the Cubs and he was very fortunate to not allow a run as he allowed TEN baserunners in only FOUR innings! Even with yesterday's result included, the Mets are still 9-3-1 to the over this season. Also, all 3 of their games against a left-handed starter have gone over the total and only 1 of the Braves 4 games this season against a southpaw starter has resulted in an under. Look for double digits here in this one! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game (Red Sox hosting Blue Jays) and the ball will be carrying very well again tonight. Chilly weather but a southerly breeze and that means another power display quite likely tonight. The Orioles David Hess had a good first start this season but that came against Toronto (hitting .198 on season). In his next start he gave up 3 homers to the Yankees. In his last two starts against the Red Sox, Hess has allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in just 8 innings of work! He'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez and the southpaw is struggling badly early this season. The lefty has allowed 11 earned runs in only 8 innings of work spanning his first two starts. His most recent starts against the Orioles make it look, on the surface at least, like he dominated. However, Rodriguez actually allowed 17 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts versus Baltimore and he was fortunate to get out of jams. The way he has pitched early this season, and considering the hitter-friendly conditions expected at Fenway tonight, I don't expect Rodriguez to be so successful in getting out of jams tonight. The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 road games and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories away from home. Overall, entering this game, Baltimore has averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in their first two home games of the season and I foresee a breakout game tonight for the BoSox sticks after rallying from a 5-0 deficit for the win yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - The Dodgers got shutout yesterday but they still rate as the top hitting team in the National League so far this season. Also, Los Angeles leads the majors in walks. Of course that means LA is a patient team at the plate and that could frustrate the Cardinals Jack Flaherty. I have a lot of respect for Flaherty's overall body of work in his young career but also strongly feel that he is just not right at the present time. Keep in mind he finished up last season with an ugly September. Now in his first two starts this season he has been getting into deep pitching counts and falling behind hitters and has been unable to work deep into games. This problem does not lend itself well to being able to enjoy success against this tough Dodgers lineup. I know Flaherty has had success against them in the past but he is not in top form right now and also it is expected to be mild weather in St Louis this evening with a decent breeze blowing out to left. As for the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, he is off a rough start at Coors Field. I know last year his home/road splits were nearly equal but in 2017 his road ERA was 3 runs highers than his home ERA. Especially now coming off a tough time at Colorado, look for the road issues to be apparent again tonight. The Cards have a number of hitters in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Maeda even though it has been in limited action. The Cardinals lineup has not been as potent as we're use to seeing with St Louis teams but their slugging percentage in night games still ranks them in the upper third of the majors. Also, the Cards have managed to score at least 4 runs in all but 2 of their 11 games this season. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and, behind Maeda is a Dodgers bullpen that has had some struggles early this season. As for the Los Angeles sticks, they entered this season having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game on the year. After struggling in the first two games of this series, look for their bats to come alive here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and it has dropped down to a 9 as of early game day morning. I fully understand the line move as the wind is expected to be blowing in sharply from left field for this one. However, the game is about much more than just home runs. The teams combined for 16 runs yesterday but only 4 of the 26 hits were homers and two of those were solo blasts. The fact is that both teams should stay hot at the plate here. The Orioles are hitting .268 versus lefties this season and the A's are slugging .457 against southpaws this season. Oakland left-hander Brett Anderson got rocked for 4 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start at Camden Yards. Baltimore southpaw John Means is making his first ever MLB start. In his minor league career, including LOW LEVEL ball, he has been hit at a combined .275 clip. That includes .277 at the AAA level. His action has been limited at the MLB level but he has been hit at a .289 clip and that comes as no surprise. Off an ugly 12-4 loss yesterday, look for Oakland to jump on the young hurler early and often. The A's have had more than 10 hits in each of their last two games. The Orioles have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in games against left-handed starters this season. Oakland's Anderson allowed 12 baserunners in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start and that came at home too! The over is 4-2 in the Athletics last 6 games and 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have gone over the total in 3 straight games. Baltimore's bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors thus far as they have compiled a 7.97 ERA, been hit at a .333 clip and allowed 15 homers in 40.2 innings! That is bad news for this match-up because with Andrew Cashner on the mound, the bullpen could very well be called upon early in this one! Cashner just faced the A's in September and allowed 8 earned runs in 8 innings! Not only that, in his two starts versus Oakland last season, Cashner allowed 3 homers in less than 7 innings of work! Marco Estrada gets the start for the A's here. I know he has had some success early this season but, in his only start away from home (in Japan) he did allow 2 homers in 5 innings. Also, the Orioles are very familiar with him and Estrada has allowed 4 homers in 17 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The Oakland right-hander went 5-11 with a 6.17 ERA in his night starts last season. The A's lineup got back on track with 8 runs in yesterday's tight loss at Houston. Oakland will now take advantage of a starting pitcher they have pounded plus a weak bullpen. Don't be surprised if the O's answer them run for run! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - Julio Urias has pitched sporadically in recent seasons and is only in the rotation due to injury. One thing that has been consistent for Urias when he has pitched though is the fact that he didn't like Coors Field! He has pitched here twice (one start) and has compiled an 11.57 ERA and been hit hard at a .457 clip! The southpaw faces a Rockies lineup tonight that has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. An evening game in early April in Colorado certainly can be chilly or even downright cold! But that is not the case this evening and that adds to the value here. Temperatures will top out in the 70s today in Denver and won't be much cooler than that when this one gets underway and on through the game temps should remain about the 60 degree mark. Very pleasant weather for baseball and the ball will carry very well tonight at Coors Field. Of course that also spells bad news for Rockies start Chad Bettis. Last season in his 17 home games (10 starts) he got rocked to the tune of a 7.08 ERA and opponents hit .311 against him. He is already off to rocky start this season as he struggled at Tampa Bay in his first start. Bettis is known for making mistake pitches that lead to big hits and that will spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that is on fire right now. LA is very familiar with Bettis and has enjoyed some success against him. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 8 runs per game this season. The Rockies are still "getting going" now that they are at home but their 6 runs Friday is a sign of things to come and I expect them to pound Urias. Big total here but it is not nearly big enough when you consider all pertinent factors in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total did open up at a 9 and then it dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the extra value and going with the over in this match-up. These teams combined for 23 runs yesterday. I don't expect them to get anywhere close to that today but just around half that (11 or 12) will do just fine for our purposes! The fact is that David Price can be a tough lefty but he did allow 4 earned runs in his first start and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that has pounded left-handed pitching so far this season. Also, Arizona starter Luke Weaver has bounced between the minors and the bigs in recent seasons and there is a reason for that. He showed again why that is by allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings in his first start of this season. The right-hander now faces the defending World Champs and they'll build off scoring a bunch of runs in the latter innings of last night's game. Also, behind Weaver is a Dbacks bullpen that has been one of the worst in the majors so far this season. The normally brilliant Red Sox bullpen also has struggled and ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this season. The over is 7-2 this season in Boston's games and the Diamondbacks are 7-1 to the over. Until these trends start to turn around I see no reason to fade them. Since I like the pitching match-up here as well, I am looking for another one to eclipse the number today. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned when I used the over in his first start this season, even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander even went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello entered this season having allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at Chase Field just like he did at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners were crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games of the season. Now Porcello faces a Diamondbacks team that has crushed 14 homers in their first 7 games this season! Porcello got rocked plus allowed a homer at Seattle and this was after allowing 4 homers in limited action in spring training. Look for the ball to continue to fly out of the yard in this one! The Red Sox righty will be opposed by Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Godley. He struggled badly in his first start this season and was roughed up for 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Godley goes from facing the World Series runner-up Dodgers to facing the World Champion Red Sox! In other words, the task at hand doesn't get any easier. I know the Boston sticks have been a little slow out of the gate this season but their last 4 games were at pitcher-friendly Oakland. Keep in mind their first 4 games saw them average 6 runs per game at Seattle and now the Red Sox finally play a series in a hitter-friendly venue. Also, the over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks games this season and 6-2 in Boston's games this season. The total on this one opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going opposite the line move and grabbing the added value with the over. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Porcello's career starts against Arizona. Also, the over is 28-10 when the Diamondbacks are playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - This total has dropped to as low as a 7 in some spots as of early Wednesday morning and that is offering great line value on the over. The Diamondbacks are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season and their games have averaged 15 runs per game which is, of course, double the opening total of 7.5 that was posted on this match-up. I understand the low total as Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Ray both merit some respect for sure. However, the key to the value here is that the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season and they have given Lucchesi some issues in the past. On the flip side, Ray gets a lot of strikeouts but also usually has command issues and walks a lot of batters. That combination generally leads to short outings. Now enter the Dbacks bullpen. They have performed as one of the worst pens in the league early this season and Ray often lasts no more than 5 innings in his starts so we'll get some Arizona bullpen in this one for a good chunk of the game quite possibly. Last but not least, though Petco Park favors pitchers more than hitters, it is also true that day games are more favorable than night games on the West Coast. Again, couple all the above factors with a very low total here and you can see why I am expect the over to improve to a perfect 7-0 in Arizona games this season. The Diamondbacks have averaged 14 hits in their last 3 games and even the Padres reached double digits in hits yesterday. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - It goes without saying that Max Scherzer is a fantastic pitcher. That said, the Phillies are familiar with him and Philadelphia now has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and is the only undefeated team on the season thus far. Of course Scherzer being on the mound is why this total is being held to a 7. The Phillies 1 through 8 is arguably the deepest lineup of any team in the league. In my opinion the weakest link is the guy they've been batting 6th and that is Odubel Herrera. Therein lies the key to this match-up. I really like the other 7 sticks in the lineup and, as for Herrera, he is hitting .341 against Scherzer and it is NOT a small sample size. That is over 41 at bats and includes 2 homers and 5 RBI. Don't be surprised if the Phillies do some damage tonight and note that the Nationals bullpen is a major question mark too! As for the Washington sticks, they certainly should have a big game here. Phillies starter Zach Eflin has proven much better at home than on the road in his young career. In his road starts he is 6-10 with a 5.80 ERA and has been hit at nearly a .300 clip. By the way, at Nationals park, he has been rocked in two career starts and the Nats have hit .400 against him there! The over is 2-1 in Eflin's 3 career starts against Washington and the over is 2-1 in Scherzer's last 3 starts against the Phils. The last 22 times Philadelphia has played a game with a posted total of 7 runs only 7 of the 22 stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander also went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello has allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games this season. Porcello has allowed 4 homers in his last 2 visits to Seattle. He'll be opposed by Mariners southpaw Wade LeBlanc. The lefty had a strong outing when he faced the Red Sox in Seattle last season. However, his very next start was also against Boston but this time it was at Fenway. LeBlanc got crushed for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The point is the Red Sox certainly figured a few things out in reference to the soft-tossing lefty and they will pound him again here. Another key to the value with this play is both bullpens have been giving up their fair share of runs so far in this series. Look for a 4th straight over between these teams and that means the Mariners O/U mark will go to 6-0 on the season. I am going to ride this early season trend on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #933 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester was fortunate last season. His overall numbers look good but when you analyze advanced metrics he wasn't pitching nearly as well as you would think. Now he comes off a rough spring training and has to pitch at one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball. Sometimes the Dallas-Fort Worth area can be quite cold in late March but it is going to be a very mild spring afternoon in DFW with the south winds blowing. Lester has allowed 14 hits in just 8+ innings in his last two opening starts. I do not expect this to go well for him. The Rangers are a much better hitting team when at home than on the road and though they strike out a lot the fact is that Lester is NOT the type of dominating strikeout pitcher that gives them trouble. He'll pitch to contact and Texas is going to do some damage. As for the Cubs bullpen, they are certainly weakened by the fact that closer Brandon Morrow is still out. The Rangers starter here is also a southpaw as Mike Minor gets the call. Rare opening day start for him plus he missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury and then was a reliever in 2017. I know he had a solid 2018 as a starter but he is still absolutely not your typical opening day starter and he is facing a helluva test here against a very powerful Cubs lineup. As for the Rangers sticks, for total runs they ranked 2nd in AL against left-handed pitching last season and also 4th in AL for total runs in home games. The Cubs had the #1 team batting average in the NL last season. It is with good reason that this total (9.5) is the biggest total on the board on opening day. Look for plenty of runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - I successfully went with the under in Game 2 of this series but I expect Game 3 to play out much like Game 1 did in this World Series. The bats are simply too strong here in each lineup and high temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 80s today in Los Angeles. Very warm weather compared to what the teams played in back in Boston to open up this series. Temperatures will still be in the upper 70s at first pitch in this one at 5 Pacific Time in LA. Boston's Rick Porcello hasn't pitched at Dodger Stadium in many years but certainly the hitters didn't have any trouble tracking his pitches when he did! His two starts here in 2010 and 2011 saw him allow 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work! Porcello also get hit hard at Houston in the ALCS as he allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Walker Buehler. I know that overall Buehler has pitched well but he's been victimized lately by giving up big hits at the wrong time and there is no doubt that the Red Sox have been the most dangerous team in MLB this season in terms of getting big hits in clutch situations. So much pop in the Boston lineup and Buehler allowed 6 hits in less than 5 innings in his most recent post-season start and also allowed 9 earned runs in 12 innings in the two starts that preceded that one! The over is 15-8 this season when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Boston is 12-4 to the over when a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175 this season. Expect another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox scored 5 runs last night with 2 outs in an inning. Impressive clutch hitting for sure but, outside of that, 7 runs were scored in last night's game. The point being that now we're seeing a total of 8.5 in Game 2 even though it is going to be another chilly evening at Fenway Park and even though one should be considering a very important factor here. Are either of these starting pitchers likely to pitch as bad as Kershaw and Sale did last night? Think about it...their combined line was 8 earned runs allowed on 12 hits and 5 walks in their combined 8 innings. That is a poor effort to say the last. Don't be surprised if Hyun-Jin Ryu and David Price both give better efforts tonight. Ryu struggled at Milwaukee in the NLCS but the Red Sox don't have familiarity with him. Also, Price will still be riding high from his dominating effort at Houston that propelled Boston into this World Series. In starts where Price has been a favorite this season only 8 of 27 went over the total! Before Ryu's most recent start at Milwaukee went over the total, 10 of his last 14 night game starts had resulted in an under. I suspect this one will as well! Grab the added value as last night's results have resulted in a boosted total here when the reality is the starting pitching will likely prove to be much better on another chilly night at Fenway Park. 10* UNDER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - This total opened up at an 8 but is starting to drop to a 7.5 in some spots which comes as no surprise. After all, under has been the trend in this series. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over here. For one thing, Hyun-Jin Ryu got hit quite hard by the Brewers in his first start in this series. Secondly, the Dodgers have plenty of confidence right now as they've won back to back games in this series. So LA certainly won't be lacking for confidence at the plate as they've also averaged 5 runs per game in their last 4 road games. The Brewers scored a total of 9 runs in their two home games in this series and should have no trouble with Ryu. Additionally, the further you get into a series, the more a lineup gets to see the bullpen and so don't be surprised if there are a few more "connections" for each team against the opposing relievers in tonight's match-up. It all adds up to plenty of runs expected at Miller Park tonight. Look for the over to improve to 15-9 when the Brewers are playing after an off day. As for Los Angeles, the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:35 ET - All 3 games in this series have flown over the total and I see no reason for that to change tonight in Game 4. The fact is that the Astros Charlie Morton has been on the mound for a total of just 4 innings since September 15th. He hasn't pitched in the post-season and he only threw 4 innings over his last two regular season starts. That doesn't bode well for him to come out and just dominate here. Keep in mind he relies on location of his breaking stuff to be successful and it is hard to be razor sharp when you haven't been pitching much at all. Certainly too the powerful Red Sox lineup has hitters than can make you pay if you're "off" also. Additionally, it won't be just the Boston lineup enjoying success tonight. Rick Porcello gets the start for the BoSox and he allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 innings spanning his two starts against the Astros this season. The Red Sox right-hander served up 3 Houston homers in those two starts. The over is a long-term 19-8-1 in meetings between these teams and that includes 8-2 this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams in Houston have flown over the total. The over is 11-3 this season in Boston's road games when they are an underdog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as both bullpens have had their share of some struggles in this series too. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:35 ET - This is an early start for a West Coast game as first pitch is at 4:35 local time when temperatures should be around 80 degrees at Dodger Stadium. Yes, this is a pitcher-friendly venue but with warm temperatures and an early start that does favor the hitters moreso than usual at Dodger Stadium. I know LA's Walker Buehler was done in by a big hit at Atlanta in his post-season start a week ago but it still shows he is certainly susceptible to pitching himself into a jam in a high-pressure situation and then paying for it. Certainly the Brewers have plenty of lumber that  can do some damage and I like the low total posted on this game especially considering that both bullpens have had some "moments" already in this series! As for Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin, he allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his start at Dodger Stadium in August. That doesn't bode well for success in his go-around as the Dodgers also are buoyed in terms of confidence after the big road win at Milwaukee Saturday. Los Angeles has played 30 games with a posted total of 7 runs this season and only 10 of the 30 have resulted in an under. Milwaukee is 14-8 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Of course playoff baseball generally leads to lower scoring games but this pitching match-up is likely to lead to an over and I am being a contrarian and looking for this one to easily get over the low total. The key here is two-fold. The Brewers Gio Gonzalez is pitching after a long layoff. Too much time between starts generally leads to struggles for starting pitchers in terms of locating their pitches properly and getting into a groove on the mound. As for the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the staff ace has been struggling in recent road starts. In fact, Kershaw has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in his last 3 road starts spanning 17 innings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in those 3 starts. As for Gonzalez, only 3 of his last 10 starts have resulted in an under! He has been held to 5 innings or less in 6 of his last 9 starts. 2 of the last 3 starts Gonzalez has made this season have gone over the total. Also, 2 of the 3 games played between these teams at Miller Park this season went over the total. The Brewers have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games at home. The Dodgers have averaged scoring 9 runs per game in their last 4 games on the road. Some confident sticks at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET -Monday's game flew over the total and the over is now 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is now 9-1 in the Yankees last 10 games and 7-1 in Boston's last 8 games. Look for the huge run production to continue this evening between these teams on an evening with very mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight and light winds blowing out toward left. Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees CC Sabathia allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox and walked 4 in that short stint. Though his prior home start versus Boston went well, the one just prior to that in May saw Sabathia get crushed in the Bronx by the Red Sox. The point is that he has been roughed up more often than not in his outings versus the powerful Boston lineup. The Red Sox continued their assault on opposing pitchers in yesterday's blowout win. Look for both teams to pound the ball in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:40 ET - Even though Saturday's game just missed going over the total, the over is still 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is still 8-1 in the Yankees last 9 games and 6-1 in Boston's last 7 games. Look for normalcy to resume this evening between these teams on an evening with rather mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight. Luis Severino dropped off a lot with his 2nd half results compared to the 1st half of the season. Also, Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. Severino was strong against Oakland in the wild card game and, no disrespect to the A's intended, the fact is the Red Sox lineup he is facing tonight is much stronger than that Athletics lineup. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New  York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - David Price is known for struggling against the Yankees ever since he came to Boston. This has been particularly true at Yankee Stadium but, even when Price has faced the Yanks at Fenway Park, things haven't exactly gone smooth for the Boston southpaw. Earlier this season the Yankees knocked Price out of a start early - a game in which he lasted only 1 inning. Also, New York got to him for 4 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings when they most recently faced him less than 3 weeks ago. He won't be the only starting pitcher struggling in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and the right-hander compiled a 9.00 ERA in his final two starts of the season. Also, Tanaka compiled a 7.58 ERA in his four starts versus the Red Sox this season. The over is 4-1 in Price's last 5 starts this season. The over is 3-0-1 in Price's 4 starts versus the Yankees this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Tanaka's last 3 starts. Also, the over is 3-0-1 in his 4 starts versus the Red Sox this season. Overall, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is 8-0 in the Yankees last 8 games and 6-0 in Boston's last 6 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:30 ET - It is true that the weather will be cool in Boston this evening as you would expect for early October. The point being that this is nothing new and this is still a hitter-friendly park. As a result, this total dropping to a 7.5 is offering excellent line value on the over. Keep in mind, the Red Sox bullpen struggled at times down the stretch run of the season and just how long will Chris Sale actually last in this game? Yes the Boston left-hander is a fantastic pitcher but his last 4 starts of the season averaged only 3 innings per game. Also, he has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his most recent two starts. Though he has impressive numbers against the Yankees in two starts this season he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone start versus the Bronx Bombers at Fenway Park. Also, the southpaw took the loss in two starts versus the Astros in the post-season last year and finished up that losing series with an 8.38 ERA. I know J.A. Happ has been strong for the Yankees since they got him but he did allow 9 runs (4 earned) in his two starts at Fenway Park this season. That includes the Red Sox having just faced him here last week. Also, Happ has a solid ERA in limited post-season action but he was very lucky because he has a 1.81 WHIP in his 19.1 innings of playoff work. That means he has allowed an average of nearly 2 baserunners per inning his career post-season appearances. That won't get the job done at Fenway Park I can tell you that much! Take advantage of the low total as the over improves to a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 games between these bitter rivals! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #939 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Yankees wrapped up the regular season on a 10-2 run to the over which included each of their last 6 games games going over the total. I expect that trend to continue here in the Wild Card game. We get a low total of 8.5 in this one and I look to take advantage of the low number. As the Yankees lineup has gotten healthier they've been hitting the ball better. They should enjoy success against the A's whom have designated this as a "bullpen game" as Liam Hendriks gets the start but he will only go an inning or so in this. Then it will be a combination of pitchers to try to get the job done against the powerful Yankees lineup. I don't expect that to go well. However, the good news for A's fans is that Oakland should enjoy plenty of success at the plate too. Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees and he struggled in the post-season last year and also has struggled in the second half of this season. The Yankees right-hander went 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA and a .291 BAA after the All-Star break. Severino allowed 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work when he faced the Athletics in early September. Since July 1st, the over is 12-3 (80%) in Severino's last 15 starts. The over is 10-3-1 in Oakland's last 14 games. With both teams trending over and Severino's struggles likely to continue and fairly mild weather in the Bronx this evening, all signs are pointing to plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Brewers are still battling for the NL Central Division title. The Tigers have now gone over the total in 3 straight games after yesterday's 6-5 loss. They'll now take advantage of facing Wade Miley, a pitcher they have familiarity with from his days in the AL. The Brewers left-hander has lasted 5 innings or less in each of his last 3 starts. Miley has walked as many as he has struck out as he seems to be fading late in the season. Detroit will have Daniel Norris on the mound and he has allowed 16 in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Also, the Tigers lefty has been rocked for 19 hits in just 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Brewers enter this game having won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee has scored at least 6 runs in 7 of those 8 victories. The Tigers have allowed 6.4 runs per game in their last 13 games. Look for another wild one here as Norris is likely to get knocked out early, Miley also has not been working deep into games, and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.44 ERA and ranks in the lower third of the majors for bullpens. The over is on a long-term 75-49 run in Brewers games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Normally in a crucial late-season series packed with playoff pressure you might expect a tight low-scoring battle. That is the norm after all. But it all depends on the pitching match-ups and, as we saw yesterday, when the pitching match-up is conducive to an over, things can get crazy in a hurry! The Brewers were especially hot at the plate yesterday but the Cardinals have also been producing some big performances at the plate in recent games too. The fact is that both lineups should stay hot this evening based on this pitching match-up. Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin did have a strong start versus the Cardinals in mid-August but he entered that start with an 11.00 ERA in his two prior starts versus St Louis this season! Also, he has not been able to pitch very deep into games of late and the Brewers bullpen got a lot of work in yesterday's game as did the Cardinals. St Louis could see their pen called upon early again here too because John Gant has struggled in his last two starts with 7 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings and command (7 walks in 7 innings) continues to be an issue for him. Also, against the Brewers he has a 1.92 WHIP in two career starts. The big bats of Milwaukee make you pay more often than not when you're allowing too many baserunners and that has been a recurring them for Gant. With yesterday's 12-4 Brewers win, the over is now 8-0 in the Cardinals last 8 starts. The over is on an 11-6 run in Chacin's last 17 starts. Look for another slugfest Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Nationals are a huge favorite (even on the run line) in this one but if you truly believe Washington is going to have a big day at the plate (and I do strongly believe that), there is another much more economical way to get involved here. The over opened at only a 7.5 because Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. Now of course he is a great pitcher but, keep in mind, he has one more regular season start after this and he can't get to 20 wins. His only real motivation is to get to 300 strikeouts and he has 290 so he has two starts to pick up 10. The point is that with playoff elimination a virtual certainty for Washington, there is no need to over-work Scherzer here. Plus he has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Marlins have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 3 games. Of course once he has out of the game a "middle of the pack" Nationals bullpen will be in play here. Speaking of bullpens, Miami ranks as the worst in MLB on the year and they could be called upon early. Marlins starter Jeff Brigham is 0-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Walks continue to be an issue for him and now he faces a Nationals lineup that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. More of the same here and, considering Brigham has averaged just 4 innings per start and the Miami bullpen is a major weakness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nats get this total by themselves. However, look for the Marlins to contribute quite well. The over is 3-0 in Scherzer's last 3 starts and I expect another one today. As a road dog of +240 or more this season the Marlins are 7-0 to the over. Combined 10-0 / 100% perfect streak tested here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays Marco Estrada and the Astros Dallas Keuchel matched up on June 27th and that game totaled 13 runs. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar end result tonight. Houston's Keuchel has seen the over go 4-1 in his 5 starts versus the Jays in his career. Toronto's Estrada enters this start off of a solid outing at Baltimore but this certainly has been the exception rather than the norm lately for the Blue Jays right-hander. He entered that start having been crushed to the tune of a 12.60 ERA over his 4 prior starts. The Astros game yesterday ended up being a push to the total so they are still on a 3-0 run to the over entering this match-up. Also, in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, Houston is on a long-term 47-23 run to the over. As a road favorite of -175 or more, the Astros are on a 21-10 run to the over. As a home underdog of +175 or more, the Blue Jays are 20-8 to the over! Only 1 of Keuchel's last 5 road starts have remained under the total. The Jays lost 5-2 yesterday but had previously won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game. The point being that the Jays are still playing hard to close out the season while the Astros are working hard to try and lock up the AL West title. Houston has won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the process. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Talk about relaxed hitters at the plate...the Red Sox have clinched the AL East and the the Indians have clinched the AL Central. Neither lineup wants to lose their "rhythm" right before the playoffs either. In other words guys are "locked in" at the plate but certainly not feeling any pressure either. That leads to some high-scoring games in match-ups like these with two sub-par pitchers. The Red Sox hand the ball to Hector Velazquez and he has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 7 innings spanning his last two starts. The Tribe will hand the ball to Adam Plutko and he got rocked by Boston last month and he enters this start in poor overall form. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts plus he gave up 3 homers in EACH of those starts! The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 games. The over is 2-0 in the last 2 starts Velazquez has made. Last but certainly not least, the over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games in which their money line is ranging from -125 to +125. This is combined trending of 14-0 / 100% PERFECT in favor of the over in this match-up. Look for a slug-fest Sunday evening at Progressive Field. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday the Orioles got to the Yankees bullpen for 6 runs in 3 innings! Today the Yankees starter is Lance Lynn and he has averaged just 5 innings per start over his last 7 starts! In other words there could be plenty of bullpen damage being done again today. Also helping the cause is that Lynn is off of back to back solid outings but he had previously allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings over his prior 4 starts. He has been "on the fade" for awhile and I like the fact that the Orioles saw him in July and he only had two strikeouts in that game. Baltimore has gotten to Lynn for 24 hits in just 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. As for the O's starter, David Hess, he is off of a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that is bad news as he now faces the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees lineup has been bolstered recently with guys getting healthy again and the ball was flying out of the park last night and should continue to do so this afternoon. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 starts Hess has made as he has compiled an unimpressive 6.08 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in those outings. As a home favorite in a money line range of -250 to -330, the Yankees are now 10-3 to the over this season. Just like yesterday's slugfest, this one should fly over the total easily. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees, despite last night's loss to the Red Sox, are still in great shape in terms of notching a wild card berth. However, they haven't clinched yet and, as a result, they'll continue to field strong lineups with their regular starters until they do so. That said, as downtrodden as the Orioles have been this season, they'd still love to play the role of spoiler as much as possible here and I expect Baltimore to have a big night at the plate against CC Sabathia. The Yankees southpaw is on the fade of late as he has a 9.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 3 homers in his most recent start which was versus Toronto. Also, in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles (all this season) Sabathia has a 6.00 ERA and has given up 5 homers in 15 innings! As for Baltimore starter Yefrey Ramirez, he is certainly also likely to struggle in this one. He is 0-2 versus the Yankees this season with a 10.00 ERA in his two outings. The over is 6-3 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 3-0 in the Orioles last 3 road games. As a home favorite in a range of -250 to -330, Yankees games are 9-3 to the over this season. Look for another slugfest in this one! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:35 ET - The A's drilled the Angels 10-0 last night. The over is now 13-4 in Oakland's last 17 games. Also, Los Angeles is 7-1-1 to the over this season when they are off of a shutout loss. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, only 6 of Oakland's 19 games have stayed under the total. The Angels Matt Shoemaker has allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. He also has a rather poor 1.59 WHIP in his last two starts versus Oakland and certainly this Athletics lineup is surging right now! Edwin Jackson gets the start for the A's here and, though he was successful in his most recent start versus the Angels, don't be surprised if the quick second look (just saw him last month) gives LA the edge in the rematch. Jackson struggled badly and allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent home start. The over is 2-1 in Jackson's last 3 starts and 2-1 in Shoemaker's 3 road starts this season. More of the same expected on a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out toward right field. The Angels had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 3 games prior to being shutout last night. The A's are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games as they remain especially hot at the plate in their home games. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:35 ET - The Cardinals were crushing extra base hits all over the park in last night's 11-6 win. Both bullpens struggled in that game. St Louis is one of the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage on the road. Atlanta is among the top teams  in the majors for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Cards southpaw Austin Gomber has allowed 25 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The lefty has given up 10 earned runs in the 9 innings over his last two starts. As for the Braves starter in this one, Anibal Sanchez issued 5 walks in just 6 innings in his most recent start. He'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that has plenty of confidence at the plate right now. They crushed the ball last night and the Cards are 7-0 in Atlanta in their last 7 games there and 6 of the 7 have gone over the total. In fact, in all match-ups between these teams (including those in St Louis), the over is 13-3 in the last 16 games! With the way both bullpens struggled last night and the fact that both of these starters are likely to encounter some tough times in the early going of this one, plus a manageable total in the 8.5 range as of early Tuesday morning, you have a nice set-up here for what should be an easy over. Also, the over is 8-4 in the Braves last 12 games. St Louis is 8-4 to the over the last 12 times they've been a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. The Braves, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team with a wining record on the year, have gone 72-46 to the over. Look for all of the aforementioned trends to add another W on the over side of the ledger Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - Erick Fedde is off of a surprisingly strong start in his last outing but he faced the Phillies in the middle of a major slump. Prior to that outing Fedde had compiled a 6.26 ERA while allowing 35 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. In other words, one shouldn't over-react to one strong start from Fedde and I look for him to struggle at Miami tonight. Of course the Marlins are likely to have pitching issues of their own here. Not only is the Marlins bullpen (5.47 ERA) ranked dead last in the majors this season, starting pitcher Trevor Richards has been struggling. The over is 5-0-1 in Richards last 6 starts as he has allowed 23 earned runs on 31 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 3-0 overall in the Marlins last 3 games and Washington is 8-4 to the over in their last 12 games. Look for more of the same on Monday as both starters struggle. 10* OVER the total in Miami