Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies is a bit of an anomaly as he pitches better at hitter-friendly Coors Field than he does when he is on the road. Though he was great against the Reds in Denver last month, do not be surprised when he struggles badly here. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his 3 career starts against Cincinnati and, prior to his success against them last month, Senzatela allowed 12 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings against the Reds in his prior two starts against them. Cincinnati is starting Tony Santillan and this is his MLB debut. I know he has been solid in the minors this season but now he takes a step up in class and he had some sub-par statistics in prior seasons in the minors. I expect the Rockies to get to him early and often. The problem for the Rockies is they have allowed double digits in runs in 3 straight games and I expect more troubles for the Colorado pitching staff today as the Cincinnati bats stay hot. The Reds have had just 1 of their last 7 home games stay under the total and, overall, have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 6 games. The Rockies had averaged about 5 runs per game last 9 games prior to scoring just 3 yesterday and I expect more success at the plate today as they take advantage of a rookie hurler. So, Colorado's bats will bounce back from yesterday's 3-run effort while the Reds stay hot and Senzatela's long-term road struggles resume. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash (9 inn game) - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees @ 4 ET - Jameson Taillon starts for the Yankees and the road has been a nightmare for him this season. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 road starts and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 outings. Consistency from Taillon but not in the way the Yankees would want and he allowed 5 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work the last time he started at Philadelphia! The Phillies enter this game riding a wave of positive emotion as they have had back to back walk off wins in their last two games (were off Friday) and this is part of a 5-2 stretch that has seen them average 8 runs per game in the 5 victories. The Yankees enter this game on a 5-0 run to the over and should have no trouble with the offerings of Vince Velasquez. The right-hander was pitching better than expected for an extended stretch but is now coming back down to his norm - a regression to the mean if you will. Velasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts. The Yankees averaged 7.3 runs per game in their 3 games at Minnesota and should stay hot at the plate here. 10* OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Warm afternoon at Wrigley Field and a starting pitching match-up that certainly should lead to some solid run-scoring here. The Cardinals Johan Oviedo is off a better start but it was at home where he has been better and it was hosting a Reds team that has struggled at the plate when on the road this season. Now he faces a Cubs team known for being dangerous at the plate in their home park and Oviedo has a 7.11 ERA with a ridiculous 11 walks in his 6 and 1/3 innings on the road this season. Oviedo also struggled on the road last season as he went winless in 4 starts with a 5.95 ERA and he allowed 5 homers in those 4 outings. The Cubs go with Kohl Stewart here and he is getting this start only because of the injury to Adbert Alzolay. That is not a knock on Stewart but just a fact and he got hit at a .290 clip in his 9 appearances last season and he has been hit at a .303 clip in his 2 starts this season. St Louis enters this game on a 3-0 run to the over and the over is 5-1 in the Cardinals last 6 road games. More of the same expected here as the Cubbies are favored here for a reason and note that they have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - We are getting a great number to work with on this total because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Houston. Despite his recent successes on the mound, I would not be surprised to see him struggle. There is a mental aspect to pitching that is a critical one and Greinke has been known to have some issues from time to time with that aspect of the game. The last time he pitched at Fenway Park was a few seasons back but he got rocked for 9 earned runs and this was in less than 2 innings of work! Don't be surprised if he has some struggles tonight as the Red Sox, prior to struggling at the plate in the first two games of this series, had won 5 straight and averaged 5.6 runs per game in those victories. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a 7.92 ERA in his last five starts and that included an ugly one against Houston. With the Astros having won 8 of 10 games plus averaging 6.4 runs last 11 games, do not be surprised when the struggles of Rodriguez quickly resume tonight. 10* OVER 9 runs in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game barely stayed under the total and now we have seen today's total move from as high as an 8.5 to as low as a 7.5 in morning market movement. I realize Yu Darvish has great numbers this season but he is facing his former team and could be wound up a little too tight here. This happens to pitchers sometimes when they are so hungry to prove themselves against a former employer. Adding to the possibility of some struggles for him here is the fact that he has a 3.92 ERA in day game outings this season and has been hit at a .262 clip and last season he had a 3.27 ERA and was hit at a .267 clip in day games. While those are still respectable numbers they are far off from his numbers in evening games. Speaking of a wide variance in numbers, the Cubs Jake Arrieta is trending the wrong way big time! He started the season with a 2.57 ERA in 5 starts but now has an 8.28 ERA in the 6 starts since! Considering the above factors, this total has been pushed down far too low in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in San Diego 

NOTE about starting PITCHERS: I am still personally betting this play on the OVER here in Vegas even though the Marlins are now going with Zach Thompson as the starting pitcher. Thompson has replaced Pablo Lopez whom is being given an extra day or rest and will be starting at home tomorrow where he is more comfortable anyway as noted below. So Thompson is now the starter here and he is making his MLB debut. No disrespect to Thompson but he is still living off th success he had in 2018 at the minor league level. Other than that one season - split between single A and double A ball - Thompson had struggled quite often in previous seasons and he has consistently struggled now since advancing to the AAA level.  At the highest level of the minors he had a 5.50 ERA in 2019 and then after losing 2020 to covid, he has a 6.60 ERA so far this season in AAA ball.  Also, he has mostly been used out of the bullpen since earlier in his career so he is unlikely to work deep here and the Marlins bullpen will be exposed. The reality is I could care or less who Miami starts here as this play has more to do with the Boston sticks crushing the ball on a hot evening at Fenway Park. ORIGINAL write-up: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 5:10 ET - The Red Sox game went over the total yesterday against the Yankees in the Bronx but it was a fortunate winner for over players as it took extra innings to get there. However, I will not let that cloud my judgement in terms of analyzing this game because there were plenty of opportunities early in the game against the Yankees that were not cashed in. The fact is that it could have been a much easier over and it is an easy over that I am now anticipating in this make-up game that relates to a rain-out last month. The Marlins are in town for one game as a result and there are a couple of keys here that should help lead to plenty of runs in this one. One is that Boston's Nick Pivetta is a former Phillie so he faced Miami often in divisional action. That said, the Marlins do have hitters with familiarity against him. Also, Pivetta is off a strong start at Houston but he had allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two preceding outings. As for Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, he is known for success at home but he has struggled on the road throughout his career. 2018 - 4.84 ERA. 2019 - 7.36 ERA. 2020 - 4.91 ERA. 2021 - 5.04 ERA. Those are the statistics for Lopez away from home. He simply has not been the same pitcher when away from Miami and that career-long trend has continued this season. The Marlins game yesterday stayed under the total but this followed 4 straight overs. Also, the over is 5-1 in Pivetta's 6 home starts this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Boston's Garrett Richards is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in his career outings at Yankee Stadium. I know that the Yankees Domingo German has been pitching very well but Boston scored 7 runs in yesterday's win. The Red Sox have scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games. The Yankees have not scored well of late but that should change in a big way here as Richards' struggles in the Bronx continue to plague him with another rough outing tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Brewers Brandon Woodruff has been phenomenal this season. He is 4-2 with a 1.27 ERA and opponents are hitting only .138 against him this season. He is taking on an Arizona team that has been in a long-term losing slump. That certainly does not set up the Diamondbacks very well for much success at the plate. 8 of Woodruff's 11 starts this season have resulted in an under. Merrill Kelly is off a tough start but this followed 6 straight starts of great success. He gave up 13 earned runs over 6 starts and has struck out 45 in 43 and 1/3 innings his last 7 starts. Kelly pitched better than his earned runs allowed would lead you to believe in his most recent start. Also, the Brewers are averaging only 3.7 runs per game this season at home and hitting only .207 at home this season which is the worst mark in the National League. 4 of the 6 road games for Kelly have resulted in an Arizona under and I look for another one this afternoon. 10* UNDER the total in Milwaukee

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 12:20 ET - Battle of southpaws here with not much success projected for either one. That is because both are struggling plus note that Washington is #1 in the NL for batting average versus lefties and Atlanta is #2 in the NL for slugging percentage versus lefties. In other words, reason to expect plenty of success for both teams at the plate here. Patrick Corbin has a 6.23 ERA on the season and got rocked for 5 runs in about 5 innings in his most recent start at Atlanta. Tucker Davidson is making just his 3rd MLB start and the Braves shuffled their rotation because of series with Dodgers coming up. In other words this is essentially a spot start for Davidson and I expect the inexperienced lefty to struggle with a Nats team hitting well against southpaws. The Nats have scored 6.3 runs per game so far in this series and the Braves have averaged 6.3 runs per game last 9 games. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres @ 2:20 ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then stayed that way so it never went over the total. I look for today's afternoon game to make up for that. Dinelson Lamet has never pitched at Wrigley Field but the Cubs have some hitters with experience against him and that experience has been positive. Lamet has a 5.40 ERA in his two road appearances this season and he has not been able to work deep into games yet this season. Adberto Alzolay starts for the Cubs here. He did not allow a homer in most recent start but that was against a Reds team that struggles at the plate on the road. In 5 starts that preceded that, Alzolay allowed 7 homers! I know this looks like it might be a pitchers duel on the surface but the Padres were on a 9-1 run to the over prior to the first two games of this series each staying under the total. San Diego scored an average of 7.3 runs in those 10 games. The Cubs have a top ten slugging percentage in home games this season. Also, Chicago has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 games and it will not take much to get this one over the low total. 10* OVER 7 runs in Chicago Cubs

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - I know this is a bit of a contrarian play but I feel we have excellent line value with this low total. Looks like the sharps are seeing the same thing as this, on the surface, would look like a pitchers duel plus there has been a lot of under trending involving these teams, and yet the total has gone from a 7 to a 7.5 in some books already. The under has cashed in 10 of the White Sox last 13 games. However, the over is 6-2 in Indians last 8 home games. Also, the weather is going to be very pleasant in Cleveland this evening and what I really like is the pitching match-up here. Yes, Cease and Bieber both have low ERAs this season and strong long-term reputations, particularly Bieber. However, prior to a strong start - albeit again Detroit - Bieber had allowed 31 hits in 22 and 2/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. As for Cease, he had been a little off in each of his 3 prior starts before shutting down a bad Orioles team in his most recent start. Cease had allowed 13 hits plus hit 2 batters and walked 9 for 24 base runners in just 15 innings of work. Don't be surprised when both Cease and Bieber have some struggles in this one and, with how low the posted total is here we should see a solid winner here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland 

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Astros are the #1 hitting team in the majors for batting average this season. Who is #2 thus far? Yes, you guessed it, the Red Sox. That said, we do have two strong hitting teams matched up here and considering both starting pitchers are likely to struggle I am expecting a slugfest in this one. The Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.48 ERA in the month of May. I know that the Astros Jose Urquidy has better numbers on the season but he is coming off a trip to the injured list and will be making his first start in nearly 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in Boston's last 5 road games and the Red Sox averaged 6.4 runs per game in those contests. The over is 9-2 in Houston's last 11 games. The Astros averaged 5.2 runs per game in those 11 contests. I am looking for a 6-5 type game here and also like the fact that the over is 3-1 in Urquidy's home starts this season as well as the fact that Rodriguez has a 6.75 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Astros. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:07 ET - The A's and Angels both had been trending over of late. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Oakland had been on an 8-3 run to the over and the Angels had been on a 9-2 run to the over. That said, and based on this pitching match-up, I look for a high-scoring game Saturday. We have seen this total drop from an 8.5 to an 8 so this is even more value on the over. Alex Cobb is off a solid start but he has an 8.71 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Frankie Montas was in strong form with strikeouts in his most recent start but he got hurt by the long ball. Will he have good stuff again here and avoid the long ball this time around? I highly doubt that as Montas has a 6.17 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. Based on home/road dichotomy for these two starters plus situational value this one has caught my attention in a big way Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:10 ET - I know the first two games of this series have both been 2-1 finals. I also know the Royals are not known for having a potent offense either! However, something about this match-up has me feeling strongly about an over and we have a total of only 7.5 runs to work with which is a great value. I know Brady Singer has decent numbers for the Royals but the Tampa Bay offense, this series notwithstanding, has been red hot for an extended stretch. Also, Singer is in just his 2nd season and he is squaring off with Shane McClanahan whom is a rookie making just his 6th career MLB start. That said, I feel too much respect is being given to these starting pitchers and that we have excellent line value with the lwo posted total here. Singer was having trouble with command of his pitches in his most recent start and the Rays had scored an average of 9 runs per game during their 11-game winning streak that preceded the 1-1 split so far in this series. As you can see, the Tampa Bay offense was ridiculously hot and they will make Singer pay if he is again having command issues here. As for McClanahan, I know the rookie has fantastic stuff but he is still new to the highest level of baseball and he does have a 5.79 ERA in his two home starts this season. Perhaps putting a little too much pressure on himself when pitching at home but the young southpaw has been hit at a nearly .300 clip at home but has allowed 3 homers in those 2 starts here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - The Angels won 11-5 yesterday and the over is now 8-2 their last 10 games. The over is now 4-0 the Rangers last 4 road games and these averaged 12.3 runs per game! Based on this pitching match-up too, more of the same expected here. The Rangers start Dane Dunning and he is winless with a 6.06 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The over went 3-1 in those 4 road starts and he also struggled at home against the Angels when he faced them in Texas in late April. The Angels start Griffin Canning here and he has allowed 10 runs (7 earned) in just 7 innings spanning his last two starts against Texas. Canning enters this outing off a rough start versus Minnesota and he has a 5.87 ERA at home this season and the over is 5-2 his 7 starts this year. With the way the Angels have been hitting overall, even with Mike Trout out of the lineup, and the way the Rangers have been involved in high-scoring games consistently on the road, look for a wild afternoon slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Spencer Turnbull is off a no-hitter. Many guys, ironically, due to tend to struggle right after delivering an incredible start like that. Also, Turnbull has a horrible history versus the Indians with an 0-6 record and 5.18 ERA in nine games against Cleveland in his career. The Tribe has hit .325 against him with a .482 slugging percentage as well against Turnbull. That said, I am looking for plenty of runs here because Sam Hentges is very likely to struggle. After a successful first start this season Hentges then got rocked in his 2nd start. Overall, in 6 appearances (2 starts) this season, Hentges has been hit at a .343 clip and has a 2.09 WHIP! The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games. Even though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, the Tigers have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 17 contests. The Indians do not score as well but have been trending over and this is a good match-up for them which means we should see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one! 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - This is a contrarian play based on the fact that we are going over a big number even though Taylor Widener has a 2.82 ERA and Jon Gray has a 3.48 ERA. Big key here is the weather at hitter friendly Coors Field. A day game here with mild temperatures and the wind blowing out means that the ball is going to carry very very well in this one! Also, the Diamondbacks Widener is making his first start in a month and coming back from a groin strain injury. The Rockies Gray is coming off a rough outing against the Padres in which he allowed 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Also, this will be the 3rd time Gray has faced Arizona and they got to him for 10 hits in 6 innings in the 2nd go around so the 3rd time is certainly unlikely to go very well for the Colorado right-hander. As for Widener, he has never pitched at Coors Field and that includes his 12 appearances as a reliever last season. Young hurlers making first ever appearances at Denver's hitter-friendly venue are known for encountering struggles. More of the same here. Just 1 under in the Rockies last 6 home games and yesterday's game totaled 13 runs. I expect at least that many again today. 10* OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - The Phillies start Spencer Howard here and he is a solid young prospect with some MLB experience already. However, he is only getting this chance because Chase Anderson struggled in the rotation. Howard is expected to be on a pitch limit of about 60 pitches and that will end up asking too much of a Phillies bullpen that got rocked in yesterday's 11 to 3 loss to these same Red Sox. Howard has a 6.28 ERA and has a .303 BAA in his 9 MLB appearances - 6 starts. The over is 3-0 in Boston's last 3 games and they have scored an average of 9 runs per game in those 3 games. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi could struggle here. In fact, the odds favor that as Eovaldi has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 this morning, I like the over even more. This is a good match-up for the Phillies to get their bats going again at home but they also will not be able to slow down Boston. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Philadelphia

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Reds got blasted 19-4 yesterday by the Giants and will be looking to bounce back. However, though Cincinnati is a solid hitting team when at home, they will need better pitching to get back into the win column and I expect both hurlers to struggle in this one. The Reds are starting Jeff Hoffman and he is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Brewers Adrian Houser has good numbers but could not find the plate in his last start and walked 5 in just 3 innings of work. When he does find the plate against the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park he could be in trouble too. That is because many of Cincinnati's players that have experience against him have hit him hard! There are 5 Reds that are a combined 17 of 38 against him for a .447 batting average with 6 homers among the hits! Look for both teams to score plenty here as the Brewers have averaged 7 runs per game in their last two games against a right-handed starter and the Reds had success against Houser both times they faced him last season. They resume their solid home hitting here! 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:10 ET - Off a 2-1 game last night and with this game, of course, at Petco Park rather than Coors Field, the first thought here is under. However, in typical contrarian fashion I am on the over in this one. Chi Chi Gonzalez is off a solid start but allowed 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his two prior starts. Joe Musgrove is also off a solid start but he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings spanning his two prior starts. Also, yesterday's under was the first for the Rockies in their last 6 games. As for the Padres, prior to yesterday's low-scoring win, they were on an 8-2 run to the over. Look for a return to high-scoring ways here given the pitching match-up and we do not even need much to push this one over the total. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - Won with this match-up yesterday and coming right back with the over again today. The Reds Luis Castillo is simply not right this season and now has a 7.71 ERA on the year. This is not the right match-up for him to bounce back as the Giants just saw him last month and had success plus they also enter this game with wins in 7 of their last 10 so they have extra confidence at the plate right now. San Francisco has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in last 8 road games. The Giants will have former Red Anthony DeSclafani on the mound for this one. Facing his former team, do not be surprised if he struggles as he tries to do too much here. So often hurler tend to overthrow when getting their first shot at a former employer and I expect that to be the case with DeSclafani here. Even off a disappointing loss yesterday, Cincinnati has been a great home team this season and they have a .498 slugging percentage as a host and have scored 6.7 runs per game at Great American Ball Park this season. The O/U is 7-1-1 in the Reds last 9 games. The Giants bullpen has a 5.18 ERA in road games this season and the Cincy bullpen has a 6.12 ERA in home games this season. With this total also dropping from an 8.5 to an 8, I feel we have excellent value here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - The Giants Logan Webb is 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The San Francisco bullpen has a 5.02 ERA in road games this season. The Reds are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season so this will be a major challenge for Giants pitchers. However, Cincinnati has some pitching concerns of their own here. Reds starter Sonny Gray was "off" and "wild" in his most recent start. Lacking command could hurt Gray here and he got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his only evening start this season. The Reds bullpen has a 6.21 ERA in home games this season. San Francisco has averaged 5.4 runs per game last 7 road games. We get a low total in this game to work with and I like the value because Gray was not sharp in most recent outing and you can see the pens and the Giants starter all fall into the "likely to get hit" category in this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game was the 3rd time the teams have combined for 15 runs or more in 6 meetings between these teams this season. That said, the high-scoring ways are likely to continue here with this pitching match-up. I know Fedde has some success against the Diamondbacks earlier this season but now they get a 2nd shot at him and when they faced him previous to this season they got to him for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Fedde has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts versus Arizona and he also enters this outing with an ugly 7.20 ERA his last two starts overall. Now he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that tends to hit better when at home. Arizona certainly will need all the runs it can get here because I expect Dbacks pitcher Luke Weaver to struggle. He has 7.04 ERA and ugly 2.09 WHIP in his two career starts against the Nationals. Weaver also faced Erick Fedde and the Nationals in a match-up last month. With these lineups getting another look at the pitchers and with the long-term numbers against them and the recent history in this series, I would not be surprised to see another slugfest here. That said, the drop on this total from a 9.5 to a 9 means we are getting even more value here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - The Red Sox Martin Perez has not recorded a victory in any of his 10 starts at Fenway Park since arriving in Boston. Perez has a 5.21 ERA from 2017 to 2019. Then he came to Boston and went 0-4 with a 5.46 ERA in 6 starts at Fenway Park last season and he is winless with a 5.50 ERA in 4 starts here this season! As for the Angels Dylan Bundy, he was great in limited action last season. But are we now seeing a return to his previously poor form? Bundy went 15-30 with a 5.11 ERA in his final two seasons combined at Baltimore. Then he enjoyed some success with the Angels last year's shortened season but now this season he is 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA in his 7 starts! Both these teams have trended under recently but long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I feel strongly that lack of confidence for both these starting pitchers coupled with a pair of solid lineups will lead to plenty of runs in this one. Also, the Red Sox bullpen has ranked only in the middle of the pack this season while the Angels (5.32 ERA) have ranked as one of the worst in the majors thus far. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 12:20 ET - Yesterday's game was dominated the pitchers but I expect that to change today in a big way. The Braves Charlie Morton is having trouble with his breaking stuff and that has really wrecked his current form. Morton did not even get out of the 1st inning versus the Phillies in his most recent start. Prior to that, he had allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings over his two most recent outings. Against the Blue Jays, Morton has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Toronto will have Ross Stripling on the mound for this one. He has allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits in a 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Braves. Also, Stripling enters this start with a WHIP near 2.00 and a 6.61 ERA in his four starts this season. Poor current form for him and the Braves will take advantage with a big day at the plate here. We get line value here with the total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 and I will step in and take advantage. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - Kyle Davies is off a strong start but it came against a bad Pirates team plus he only struck out 1 in that outing. In other words, the Indians bats will be putting the ball in play here against Davies and he lasted no more than 4 innings in any of his 4 starts that preceded the start versus Pittsburgh. He has a 6.28 ERA on the season and this total dropped from a 9 to an 8 which is offering us significant line value here. Sam Hentges is making his first ever MLB start and though he has "only" a 5.00 ERA so far this season, the Indians lefty has been fortunate the damage has not been worse! Hentges has allowed 4 homers in just 9 innings of work and, overall, opponents are hitting .350 against him. I know yesterday's game was a tight 3-2 final but, keep this in mind, the Indians entered that game having scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 7 games and, in fact, averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 6 games. The Cubs entered yesterday's game having won 7 of 10 games and scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game in those 10 games. This total, particularly after the downward move, should prove to be far too low. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Phillies and those were all last season and he allowed 5 homers in those 3 starts. The Phillies Chase Anderson is winless with a horrific 16.40 ERA in his 3 career starts in Washington DC. He also enters this start with a 9.39 ERA on the road this season. Fedde enters this start with an 8.48 ERA at home this season. It is the ideal set up for a slugfest as the Phillies bullpen has struggled this season. Although the Nationals bullpen has been better than the Phillies this season they have still taken the loss in 4 of last 5 decisions while also blowing their only save opportunity over the past 7 days. I know recent trending for these teams has been to the under but that changes in a big way in this one and truly it is merely helping to keep this total lower than it should be. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but these teams entered that one with the over on a 5-1 run in last 6 meetings. Those 5 overs averaged 15 runs per game and another wild one should be on tap here. The Red Sox start Martin Perez and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts against Baltimore. In those 2 ugly starts Perez allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in just 9 innings of work. The Orioles start Jorge Lopez here. Not only does he have a 9.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season, he also got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 innings in the one start out of those three that was against these Red Sox. In other words, do not be surprised if both of these starting pitchers encounter some trouble here after yesterday's rather low-scoring game was a bit of an aberration in my opinion. Boston entered yesterday's game on a 5-2 run to the over and scoring an average of 7.5 runs per game last 8 games. With this total opening at a 9.5 and then dropping to a 9 we have additional value here and I will not pass this up! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - I know that Ian Anderson has solid numbers for the Braves this season but this will be the 3rd time already that the Phillies are seeing him this year. Philadelphia got to him for 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in most recent chance against him. Also, the Phillies lineup is getting healthier again with both Bryce Harper and Jean Segura returning yesterday. Additionally, Philly is red hot with 5 straight wins and the Phillies have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games. Vince Velasquez gets the start for Philadelphia here. I do not trust this guy. I know he has had a couple of decent starts recently but he'll struggle here. He is 1-6 with a 5.02 ERA against the Braves and has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at Atlanta. With yesterday's 12-2 Phillies win, the Braves O/U is 11-3-1 in their 15 home games this season. Look for that high-scoring trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game barely stayed under the total. Look for today's game to make up for it. Yes, Jon Lester has good career numbers against the Braves and did have a strong first start to begin this season with the Nationals. However, couple comments on that. His only start this season came against the Marlins and that is not a team I am impressed by in terms of their lineup. Also, though Lester has had success against Atlanta, it has been awhile since he faced them. Though that most recent outing was a successful one against the Braves, it followed him allowing a combined 5 homers in his other 2 most recent outings versus Atlanta. Despite his strong career numbers, most of that success against the Braves is from many years ago and I feel strongly he is not the same pitcher he once was. Like Atlanta's lineup, Washington's lineup should also have a big game at the plate today. The Nationals will take advantage of facing a struggling Drew Smyly. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Nats have hit very well against southpaws this season and the lefty Smyly has some ugly stats of late. Smyly had a respectable start against Washington earlier this season but since then he went 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over three starts. He allowed 8 homers in those 3 outings and I expect more struggles today. 10* OVER the total in Washington

MLB is a play even though Phil Maton now expected to start for the Indians. Maton is just an opener. Sam Hentges still expected to get the bulk of the work. Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - I know these are generally two of the weaker offenses in the majors but the Royals have hit pretty well at home this season and the Indians have won 6 of 8 games and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game in those wins. Cleveland should have no trouble with a struggling Mike Minor. The Kansas City left-hander has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and that includes outings against the Tigers and Pirates which certainly are not exactly teams known to have powerhouse lineups. I know Minor has some history against the Indians but his current form is off. As for Cleveland's starting pitcher, Sam Hentges is making his first ever MLB start. He has given up 3 homers in his 3 appearances this season and, overall, has been hit quite hard. More of the same expected here as the Royals have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game last 5 games. This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped to an 8.5 and I like the added value here after the line move. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers @ 7:40 ET - Rangers games have stayed under in 5 of last 6 games. However, with yesterday's 5-3 win, Texas has scored a total of 13 runs last two games. I like the odds of a high-scoring match-up here even though I am not a big fan of the Rangers lineup. The fact is that the Twins lineup showed signs yesterday that they are ready for a surge. Minnesota scored 13 runs Sunday and the over is now 5-0 last 5 Twins games. With Kenta Maeda and Dane Dunning on the mound for this one, we should see plenty of fireworks from each lineup. Maeda has given up 3 homers in each of his last two starts. Those starts were on the road and normally he is a much better pitcher when at home. However, he did give up 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his lone home start this season. As for Dunning, he has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work combined in his last two outings. These lineups do not have much experience against these hurlers and that is the one drawback here. However, with the way these two starters are going and the fact that both lineups have helped produce a couple recent big wins, the over looks like a solid play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

NL Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday the 3-2 Reds win over the Cubs was one of the very few games that did not go over the total on Saturday. Not surprisingly, a total here that opened up at a 9 has been bet down to an 8.5 as of early Sunday morning and I love the additional value we are getting here. Of course the odds makers opened up this total at a 9 with good reason and now we get some additional value with the 1/2 run drop on the number at the books. The fact is that the Reds have been one of the top hitting teams when at home this season and they should pound Trevor Williams. He has shown a pattern in recent seasons that has continued right into this season as well. Williams can be solid in evening starts and particularly when at home but his road starts and his day game starts have left plenty to be desired. I look for Williams to get pounded here. As for Tyler Mahle, I am well aware that he has solid numbers. But the Cubs have hitters that have enjoyed success against him. Also, even though he was able to escape his most recent start relatively unscathed, Mahle did have multiple guys on base in 3 of the 5 innings and was somewhat fortunate to escape without much damage being done. He will not be so fortunate this time around and the ball should carry well in a mild afternoon game at Great American Ballpark. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati  

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Even though they only scored 1 run yesterday, the Red Sox will feel good about themselves after getting the upset win over Jacob deGrom and the Mets. That will lead to some extra confidence at the plate here and I feel Kyle Gibson is over-rated right now. His early season performance has been great but this is still the same Gibson who had a 4.84 ERA in 2019 and went 2-6 with a 5.35 ERA last season in 2020. In other words, there is going to be a regression to the mean very soon for Gibson and I expect it to begin right here. The Rangers right-hander has great numbers this season and did a good job of inducting ground ball contact in his most recent start. However, he also benefitted from a couple of guys caught stealing and he got out of a big bases-loaded jam at the end of his start. A good number of hard hit balls in that start and Boston enters this game having won 16 of 22 games so they will come with bats ready to go right away. The Red Sox will need all the runs they can get because Texas will likely pound Martin Perez. The Boston southpaw struggled as spring training went on and that same pattern has carried right into the regular season. Perez has given up 11 hits plus walked 4 while allowing 6 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings his last two starts combined. Yes that is a WHIP over 2.00 and when you are allowing 2 base runners per inning it is only a matter of time until you get into big trouble. Rangers off tight 4-3 loss last night bounce back at the plate tonight. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:45 ET - This total is already showing signs of moving to a solid 8.5 across the board from its opener of an 8. On the surface, a respected starter like Martinez and an up and coming starter like Eflin, who has pitched well last year and this season, would seem to indicate a pitchers duel here. In typical contrarian fashion though, I am on the over in this one. The reason you saw a potential pitchers duel have the total move higher is because of some sharp thinking and I concur. For one thing it will be a very mild evening in St Louis with a decent wind blowing out toward left-center. Additionally, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struggled more on the road than at home throughout his career. The Cardinals Carlos Martinez has struggled more in night games than day games in recent seasons. Also, Martinez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA this season and he went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA last season. He has now gone winless in his 9 starts made the last two seasons combined. The reason I am on the over rather than the Phillies is because I do expect Eflin to get hit here. These teams already saw these pitchers this season and now get a 2nd shot at them and Eflin's road struggles on a hitter-friendly evening at Busch Stadium are absolutely a concern here. Look for a surprising slugfest to break out in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - I expect Mike Trout back in the lineup for the Angels in this one. Either way I like the over a lot here. This total opened at a 9 for a reason but is down to an 8.5 in some spots as of early game day morning and I am going to jump on it. These lineups just faced these same pitchers last week. I know the Angels Shohei Ohtani has a low ERA and has given up few hit hits in his first two starts this season but he also walked 11 in just 8 and 2/3 innings on the bump. Ohtani also is making his first road start and he has struggled much more on the road (6.20 ERA) than at home in his career. The Rangers counter with Jordan Lyles. He is off to a decent start for the Rangers this season but has allowed 5 homers in his 4 starts. Keep in mind this is a guy with a 5.21 ERA in his career and he went 1-6 last season with a 7.02 ERA. I feel strongly that he is being given far too much respect here against a potent Angels lineup and I expect Ohtani's struggles to continue in terms of command of his pitches. Additionally, the only bullpen in the AL with an ERA higher than the Angels and Rangers is the Tigers. In other words, this match-up also features two of the worst bullpens in the league. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 3:10 ET - Jon Gray has great numbers so far this season but historically has had higher ERA numbers versus left-handed bats and the Phillies position players will likely include 4 of the 8 stepping in on that side of the box for this one at least. Additionally, if the right-handed bats of Realmuto and Hoskins are in the lineup note that the former is one of the best sticks the Phillies have and the latter is a streaky hitter that is currently on fire again. Hoskins has hit 4 homers last 4 games. The Phillies Chase Anderson is also likely to struggle here as he has a 6.66 ERA in his 5 career starts at Coors Field. It will be a warm afternoon in Denver so I expect the ball to be jumping off the bats in this one too. Additionally this game features two of the worst bullpens in baseball, statistically, so far this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB 10* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:40 ET - I can not believe the Phillies are starting Velasquez here. I realize he is filling in for another struggling hurler, Matt Moore, because of covid-19 protocols. However, don't the Phillies have any other option and want to give a young guy a chance? Velasquez has pitched 4 innings this season so he has recorded 12 outs but he also has walked 8 batters - an average of 2 per inning. This guy has proven time and time again that he is shaky, often pitches himself into jams, and just can not be successful at the MLB level. He is 19-28 since the 2017 season and has an ERA north of 5.00 during this span. As for the Rockies, I know German Marquez has been solid this season but the Phillies are not a good match-up for him. They have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Also, Philadelphia enters this game off back to back games in which they scored at least 6 runs. The Rockies have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. If we get this game to 5-5 we have a guaranteed winners as the posted total is 10.5 and the game would have to end 6-5 at a minimum. I know the Rockies have trended under this season but both these starting pitchers likely to get hit hard, both of these bullpens have ranked poorly so far this season, and both lineups swinging the sticks quite well in recent games. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets @ 7:40 ET - Last night's game went crazy. Even though it took a number of strange occurrences for the Cubs to have that break-out 7-run 4th inning yesterday, it helped lead the way to a completely unexpected 16-4 win. That is the type of confidence-boosting win, even if fueled by errors and misplays on the part of the opposition, that can fuel a big run for a team at the plate. The Cubs will now step into the batters box with a lot more confidence tonight and the Mets Joey Lucchesi certainly did not impress in his first start of this season. Additionally, the New York southpaw has a 7.20 ERA in his two career starts at Wrigley Field. Speaking of struggles at Wrigley Field, that certainly has been the case for Trevor Williams throughout his career. Even including two surprisingly solid starts at home this season, Williams has a 5.93 ERA in ten career appearances at Wrigley Field. The Mets have mostly trended under this season and the same is true for the Cubs. However, yesterday's game featured each team getting to double digits in hits and the weather for this one will be better than it was for the hitters last night. In fact, the wind is expected to turn around to the southwest for this game and that could help even more. Not a strong wind but still a light breeze blowing out at Wrigley Field is a good thing for overs which is what I absolutely expect here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

ACTION with pitchers ALWAYS for ALL my MLB picks. Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - Long-time followers know I like to take overs in match-ups where I feel the road team pitcher is the slightly better pitcher and the home team pitcher is likely to get rocked. Why? Well because most teams tend to swing the bats better at home team. So, oftentimes, unless facing an absolutely dominant pitcher, the home team is going to get their runs. That said, when you have a game where the road team is also likely to get theirs, you have a great situation! The Rangers Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. I know he has good stuff at times but the numbers do not lie and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season and now makes his first road start of the season. Foltynewicz also struggled badly in spring training. Honestly when you look at his career numbers, 2018 was the only year in which Foltynewicz truly dominated as his other seasons have all seen him compile a 4.31 ERA or higher. As for the Angels Jose Quintana, he has been rocked in both his starts this season, hardly pitched last season, and got hit at a .282 clip in the prior regular season - 2019. The point is that it has been quite some time since Quintana has looked impressive on the mound. Prior to yesterday's loss, the Rangers had averaged 6.3 runs last 4 road games. The Angels are scoring an average of 6 runs at home this season and that is with 9 games as a host already in the books. They will get it done again today. 10* OVER the total in LA Angels

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - At first glance this total may appear a little on the high side. That is why I am playing the over of course! Long time followers know I love to be a contrarian but a play is never made without good reason behind it. In this case Patrick Corbin has been getting rocked so far this season and Adam Wainwright is known for struggling more on the road than at home. Corbin had issues with command of his pitches in spring training and that has carried right into the regular season. He is walking too many guys. Also, when he has found the plate he has gotten hammered in his first two starts. Corbin has a 21.32 ERA in his first two starts this season. Wainwright is off of a bit of a rocky start at home where he did pile up some strikeouts but also got hit hard. In his only road start this season he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Last year he was solid on the road but that was in very limited action as it was a shortened season. The year before Wainwright had a 6.22 ERA in road games. 2018 was a 4.38 ERA and 2017 was a 7.32 ERA in road games. 2016 he had a 6.18 ERA in road games this season. Consistently Wainwright is just not the same pitcher when on the road. I look for the Nats to hammer him early and often but I also look for Corbin's early season struggles to continue. The Cardinals have a .422 slugging percentage in road games which ranks them 4th in NL. The Nationals have a .262 batting average which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Cards have scored 9 or more runs in 3 of last 6 games. Another offensive explosion likely here. The Nats have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Situtational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - Sometimes the odds makers are a sports bettors best friend. What I mean by that is that when it appears they are offering something too good to be true it usually is. I already had my eyes on this match-up as a potential over play for Friday but when the total was posted it really sealed the deal. How can this total in a National League park be a 9 when the Indians have had 8 unders in their 11 games this season? Exactly! So the odds makers are going to bait a lot of people into the under here in my opinion but I am expecting this to be an easy over. Even though Cleveland has been a dead under team this season they have some momentum now coming off a win which was their 6th win in their last 8 games. Also, the Indians have scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Reds enter this game on an under streak of 3 unders last 4 games but now they are back home where they are the top team in the majors offensively so far this season. Cincinnati has hit .320 at home this season and averaged scoring 9.5 runs per game! Indians Luke Allen has struggled early in starts and I look for the home-hot Reds to jump on him early and set the tone in this one. Cincy's Jeff Hoffman is off an unimpressive outing at Arizona in his most recent start and now faces a Cleveland lineup that is starting to grow in confidence. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Situational Slaughter - MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 7:45 ET - The Cardinals have not hit well early this season but they are at home here against Erick Fedde whom is off a rough start in his first outing of the season. The set up is perfect for the Cardinals bats to have a big day but I do not trust their starter John Gant as he is getting this start only because of injuries in the pitching rotation for St Louis. He allowed 2 base runners per inning in his first start with 4 hits, a hit batter, and 3 walks in just 4 innings of work. That was against a bad Marlins lineup. That does not bode well as now he faces a Nationals team whose .268 batting average ranks them 5th in the majors. I know Washington has not hit for much power yet this season but they only have 6 games in the books and the bigger hits will come. I like the way they are swinging the bats and you can see why, per the above, that I am happy to fade both these starting pitchers. Fedde just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA in his career. Both bullpens ranking just in the middle of the pack so far this season too. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles will be facing Garrett Richards and they beat Richards and the Red Sox 11 to 3 for their best game of the season when they saw him the first time. As a result, Baltimore will have some extra confidence at the plate for this one and they are looking to bounce back after Thursday's home opener loss as Boston drilled them 7 to 3. While I do expect the O's to bounce back at the plate, I don't expect them to necessarily win this game because they are also likely to give up plenty of runs. I know Bruce Zimmerman had a solid first start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park but this is still a guy pitching in just his 4th MLB game. Also, he is a native of Baltimore and this will be the first appearance of his career in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He grew up cheering for the Orioles and certainly will be highly energized here but perhaps too much so. Young pitchers in situations just like this one actually have a tendency to overthrow or overdo it and end up struggling as they want so badly to succeed in a setting like this. I have seen it time and time again and he is facing a Red Sox team that has turned it around since they saw him the first time. Boston has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in these victories. The over is a perfect 5-0 last 5 Red Sox games and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:05 ET - I know Baltimore is not hitting very well early this season. However, their confidence is boosted off a 4-3 win in 11 innings over the Yankees yesterday. Also, Baltimore has plenty of confidence facing the Red Sox here as they swept them in Boston to open up the season. Additionally, this is the home opener for the O's and traditionally they do hit better as a team compared to on the road. Adding to the value is that the Red Sox have certainly reversed their early season hitting struggles. Boston is off a 3-game sweep of the Rays in which the Sox scored 26 runs! Entering this game the Red Sox have now recorded 4 straight overs. Look for that trend to continue here. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start since 2019. His ERA on the road compared to at home in that solid 2019 season was a full 1.5 runs higher and teams hit .284 against him when he was away from home. The Orioles are off to a winning start to the season and managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Yankees with last night's momentum-boosting win. As a result, they will hit better at the plate today than many are expecting. Baltimore does have pitching concerns here though. Matt Harvey is giving the Red Sox a quick second look at him as he just faced them last week and after doing okay the first time through the lineup he got into trouble. This time Boston really pounds him right him from the get go in my opinion. The result is plenty of runs for both teams. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore 

Big East Beast - MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - The Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in 2 of last 3 games after yesterday's 15-6 beatdown at the hands of Minnesota. The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in 3 of their 4 games this season and I would not be surprised at all to see each team get to 5 runs in this one and of course that would guarantee us of at least a 6-5 final. With a total of just 9 runs on this game we really need to just get each team to 4 runs to guarantee we will not have a losing ticket. That's because that would insure at least a 5-4 final here. The fact is that Casey Mize is an up and comer with a great arm but he is still having issues with command of his pitches. That means too many walks and too many mistake pitches that end up getting hit hard. Mize certainly experienced that last season against the Twins as he compiled an 8.49 ERA in 3 appearances against Minny last year. The Twins go with JA Happ here. The veteran southpaw was in covid protocol that delayed his spring and then he had a rough spring with getting absolutely crushed in his last two appearances. I do not expect this to go well for the southpaw as he struggled on the road last season with an ERA near 5.00 which was the 2nd straight season he had issues away from home. The Tigers, with it still being early in the year and with a 2-2 record and scoring 5+ runs in 2 of last 3 games do have some confidence at the plate. So both teams enjoy success here and for the 4th time in 5 games this season, a Minnesota game reaches double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - Nice weather expected for this afternoon affair at Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon and I am expecting plenty of runs here. Yes the Pirates are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season but the Cubs Zach Davies certainly does not have overpowering stuff. Remember the Pirates did steal game one of this 3-game set by coming up with a big 5-3 win. I am not saying they'll get another win in the rubber match but I am saying I expect them to score better than they did in yesterday's 5-1 loss. The problem for Pittsburgh however will be their own pitching here as Mitch Keller gets the call. He got rocked for 5 hits including 2 homers in less than 3 innings of work in his start at Wrigley Field last season. He had trouble with walks last season and that would be a problem here with free passes at a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley with mild afternoon weather and a southerly breeze expected today. Look for plenty of offense in this one and the total at 8.5 runs is offering solid line value in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Daytime Dominator - MLB Rotation #929 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - This match-up was originally scheduled for yesterday's Opening Day action. I stayed away from it because I was concerned about the weather. Staying away turned out to be a good decision as, sure enough, the game got cancelled. Now with clear weather (chilly but no precipitation) expected in Boston for Friday afternoon I can get involved with a match-up I like. Both of these hurlers struggled in spring training but Nathan Eovaldi did have one good start and it was the one he just had and it was against these Orioles. In my opinion, the fact Baltimore just saw him really helps them here. Plus they had some chances in that game but got hurt by a couple double plays. The O's will have some success getting to again see Eovaldi on such short notice here. As for the Red Sox sticks, they should pound John Means here. The southpaw has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts against Boston and has compiled a 6.75 ERA in those two outings. These two teams were two of the better hitting teams in the majors last season but neither team is good defensively and the Orioles pen is mediocre while the Red Sox bullpen is definitely a concern heading into this season. As a result, and based on some questionable spring training results for these two hurlers, look for runs early and often and throughout this one at Fenway Park Friday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:07 ET - All 5 games in this series have totaled 7 or less runs. In typical contrarian fashion, that has me on the over in Game 6! The fact is I love this pitching match-up for an over. Yes, it was also Framber Valdez vs Blake Snell in Game 1 and that was a 2-1 game. However, that score doesn't say anything about the way that start played out for each of these hurlers. There were many scoring opportunities ruined by multiple double plays and runners caught stealing. There also were plenty of hard hit outs and now stronger contact is likely in this match-up because these hitters just faced these pitchers on Sunday. Also, the bullpen work has been solid in this series but the hitters have seen more and more of the same arms now too and they've started to do a little damage against relievers too. That said, I expect plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as the set-up is truly ideal for a breakout game for both lineups in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and quickly moved to a 9. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the move and going with the over here. The Dodgers turned the screws on the Braves by hammering the Atlanta bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. I know LA still ultimately fell short by a run in that game but that was a key difference maker. The Dodgers carried that momentum right into Game 3 when they exploded in the first inning for a record-setting 11-run frame. The Dodgers aren't going to slow down here against Bryse Wilson (5.91 ERA and .306 BAA in his MLB career). In fact, Wilson is unlikely to pitch deep into this game as the Braves are treating this is a bullpen game. Yes that is the same bullpen that has been involved with allowing a ton of runs to the Dodgers the last two games. In other words, this is not a good set up for the Braves pitching staff. However, with Clayton Kershaw dealing with back spasms as well as the fact that the Braves will be facing a southpaw starting pitcher for a 2nd straight game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta match the Dodgers run for run early on this one. Maybe the Dodgers pull away late but I am not laying the big price on the money line or the run line and feel that expecting double digits in runs scored in this one is absolutely the value play in Game 4 of the NLCS. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

ADDITION to write-up: Even though Tony Gonsolin is now the starter for the Dodgers I still like this play. The only time the Braves faced him he held them to 1 run in 4 innings last year. I realize this is his first post-season appearance but Atlanta's lack of familiarity with him is a plus. I'll give you another plus too: Gonsolin has a 2.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .186 BAA in his 20 appearances (14 starts) at the MLB level. He is capable of giving the Dodgers plenty of solid work in this start and so we stick with our bet. Here is the write-up ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Globe Life Park is a pitcher friendly park. Yesterday's game was 1-1 before the Braves exploded for 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Value for the under in this one Tuesday as both starting pitchers should again dominate. Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves and was fantastic over his last 6 regular starts - 1.95 ERA! Plus Anderson has dominated the post-season with striking out 17 in 11 and 2/3 scoreless innings spanning his two starts in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers here and also should dominate. He has struck out 19 in 14 innings in this post-season while allowing a total of only 3 runs. Also, Kershaw has a 0.43 ERA in his career playoff outings against the Braves. Considering the low-scoring ALCS and NLCS action thus far as well as this starting pitching match-up, the venue, and the two high-quality bullpens, this one looks like another game in which runs will be at a premium. 10* UNDER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Yesterday's 2-1 final is helping to give us some line value here. The teams had plenty of scoring chances yesterday but just couldn't cash in. The teams combined to go just 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and left 19 men on base. That is why no matter whom the pitchers are today, I am betting the over in this game. The lineups made enough "noise" yesterday that they have some confidence heading into today's game and, this time, they should cash in those opportunities. As for the projected pitching matchup today is is Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers went 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA away from home in 2020 regular season action and then got crushed in the ALDS match-up with Oakland as he allowed 8 hits (including 3 homers) in just 4 innings of work. Don't be surprised if the Rays do some damage here. However, Tampa Bay starter Morton had a 4.74 ERA in his 9 starts in the regular season this year and the Astros will do some damage against him here too. That said, with a total of just 8 runs, this one gets my highest rating. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:08 ET - I know Sixto Sanchez is off a great start versus the Cubs in the prior post-season round. But he faces a much more confident and potent lineup in this round of the playoffs. Also, the Cubs hadn't seen him this season whereas the Braves will be seeing Sanchez for the 3rd time already this season. Repetition tends to help the hitters and when they saw him for the 2nd time Atlanta got to him for 4 earned runs on 4 walks and 4 hits in just 3 innings! More of the same expected here. The good news for Marlins fans, however, is the fact that Kyle Wright makes this start for the Braves. Not only is this the first time Wright has pitched since September 25th, he struggled badly against Miami this season. Wright allowed 8 earned runs on 8 walks and 9 hits in 7 innings of work! Just like Sanchez, Wright is likely to struggle here. After yesterday's 2-0 pitchers duel, this one is slated to play out much more like the 9-5 slugfest that opened up this series. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:08 ET - I know these teams combined for just 1 run yesterday but watch today's game play out much differently. For one thing, the fact yesterday's game went 13 innings didn't do any favors for each team's bullpen. But the key factor here is that there is reason to believe each of these pitchers could struggle some in their post-season debuts. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds and he gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his only day game outing this season. Castillo, as good as he has been, is now 8-14 in day games the past 3 seasons! The early start time for this one certainly not doing him any favors. Also, Castillo enters this start off a road outing in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. As for the Braves Ian Anderson, he just turned 22 in May and it seems the book is now out on how to hit him! In all seriousness, after great early season success he got hit hard in each of his last two outings to wrap up the season and allowed 3 runs in each start. It is hidden from his ERA a little bit because the 3 in his final outing were unearned. But that does not change the black and white facts which are: Anderson allowed 11 hits plus walked 4 in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Reds will bounce back at the plate off the shutout loss and I expect the youngster to feel a bit of playoff pressure in this one as the rookie has logged only 32 and 1 / 3 innings in his MLB career, all this season. The bats will wake up today after yesterday's slumber. I understand the low total of 7.5 but have plenty of reason to believe it is too low as you can see per the above. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #943 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:07 ET - Sometimes strange things happen. Who would have thought the Yankees, who did not slug the ball well away from home all season, would go and score 12 runs at Cleveland on a night when Indians ace Shane Bieber was pitching? Or who would have thought the only series in this Wild Card round that was pitting two teams who saw a lot of each other during the regular season would see both teams struggle at the plate? But that was the case yesterday with the Rays and Jays as neither team hit well and the game sputtered to a 3-1 final. The key takeaway in all this? Stay the course. There will always be exceptions but staying steady with the same beliefs that got you there is what will continue to bring in winners. That is why I am going with the over in Game 2 of this series after a low-scoring Game 1. I know Hyun Jin Ryu had a great regular season but the Rays are familiar with him and ranked 3rd in the AL against lefties this season as they had a .455 slugging percentage when facing southpaws. Tampa Bay will be seeing Ryu for the 3rd time this season and he did have a 5.23 ERA in his day game outings this season plus struggled a bit against the Rays this year as well. TB counters with Tyler Glasnow. He was not nearly as dominant this year as last year plus he had a 4.85 ERA in home games and a 9.00 ERA in day games. Toronto can give him some trouble here and the Blue Jays and Rays could get into a bit of a back and forth game here which has me liking this one to go over the low total. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:07 ET - Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY is a very hitter friendly park. It will be a mild afternoon in upstate New York with the winds out of the southwest. All signs point to the bats ruling the day here. The Orioles want to get one more look at Keegan Akin and, honestly, the Blue Jays probably do as well! Toronto gets a second shot at him in their own park and Akin has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The southpaw will get rocked by a Blue Jays team that is riding waves of positive emotion as they prepare for their first post-season appearance since 2016. As a result of the playoffs being on deck, Blue Jays starter Tanner Roark will work deep into this game even if he is getting roughed up as Toronto wants to preserve as many arms as possible for the start of the playoffs. That said, I like my chances of plenty of runs here as the struggling Roark should get rocked. He has a 7.01 ERA in his 10 starts this season and opponents are hitting .311 against him. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left-center field at a good clip on Saturday evening at Kauffman Stadium. This is a match-up featuring two teams that are staying home for the playoffs so the hitters certainly will be relaxed at the plate. That said, I like this pitching match-up to result in an easy over. The Tigers Matthew Boyd is facing the Royals for the 3rd time this season but the first time at Kansas City. Though his most recent start against KC was solid, that was sandwiched around 2 poor outings. That comes as no surprise as it has been a very rough season for Boyd and I expect the Royals to pound him in their 3rd look at him this season plus now facing him at home. As for the Kansas City starter, it is rookie Carlos Hernandez. He has not pitched more than 3 and 2/3 innings in any of his outings. His most recent one lasted that long and he only allowed 1 earned run but 4 hits and 3 walks so he was fortunate to say the least. Look for him to get crushed by the Tigers here but note that the Detroit team ERA is among the worst in the majors this season so this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest with the ball carrying very well at Kauffman Stadium tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET - No playoff pressure here for these teams and that means relaxed hitters at the plate on what will be a mild evening with a southerly breeze at Fenway Park. That means the ball will carry very well. Boston's Martin Perez will be facing the Orioles for the 3rd time this season and, though he was successful against them at Baltimore, he struggled when he faced them in Boston. In fact, Perez is 0-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home this season. The Orioles got to him for 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings when they faced him earlier this season at Fenway Park and they can do it again here. They'll need all the runs they can get because the Red Sox beat them 9-1 yesterday and should have another big game at the plate as they face the Orioles Alex Cobb. The Baltimore right-hander is 0-5 with a 5.18 ERA in his night starts this season and 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his road starts this season. The Red Sox are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and are on a 3-game winning streak in which they have scored an average of 9 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:05 ET - I know the Phillies Zach Eflin is off a strong start but he hasn't had back to back strong starts all season. In fact that was preceded by a stretch in which he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 6 of 7 outings. That included his only start of the season against the Nationals and he gave up 4 earned runs in that outing. Washington has a solid lineup and they are relishing the role of spoiler against the division rival Phillies. They swept yesterday's double-header on a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th of Game 2 after beating Aaron Nola 5-1 in Game 1. The only good news for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia should score plenty of runs in this one. They got going at the plate with 7 runs in Game 2 yesterday and now face Erick Fedde. He is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in his two starts against the Phillies this season. Like Eflin, Fedde is off a strong start. Like Eflin, Fedde had struggled prior to that start as he had entered the outing against the Marlins with a 7.32 ERA in his 4 preceding starts. This one will be all about the lineups as they each have a huge day at the plate on a mild evening in DC. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:37 ET - Yes I know Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been great for the Yankees in his last 3 starts. However, the Yankees could get double digits in runs all by themselves in this game. Toronto beat New York  11-5 yesterday so it is payback time today but I am certainly not laying the huge money line price on the Yankees and even the run line price is lofty too. Instead I'll take the over and lay hardly any juice in this one as New York should pile up the runs here. The Yankees are 10-2 in their last dozen games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game in those ten victories. 6 of the Yanks last 7 games have totaled 11 or more runs and I am expecting a similar result today. Roark has a 6.41 ERA this season. If he exits early we might see the originally planned starter for today, Chase Anderson, and he has a 7.45 ERA this season. Overall the Blue Jays pitching staff is not impressive and the Yankees sticks are in bounce back mode after consecutive losses have followed a 10-game winning streak in which, for the most part, the Bronx Bombers were knocking the cover off the ball. The Blue Jays are hitting .274 at home this season and that ranks them among the best in the majors. They should scratch some off Cole whom also might get an early exit if the Yankees get up big as they preserve his arm for the post-season. As a result, all signs pointing to a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Jon Lester is coming of a start that featured a good linescore versus the Indians but he was not impressive. He was fortunate in that outing. I like to fade pitchers off a start like that and especially when they are NOT overpowering pitchers. That is is certainly the case with Lester and now he is on the road and I trust the Pirates sticks more at home than on the road. The issue for the Pirates here will be their own starter as JT Brubaker gets the start and has struggled badly at home this season. Brubaker has made 5 starts in Pittsburgh and he has compiled a 7.08 ERA as teams have hit nearly .300 against him at PNC Park. With the Cubs off a shutout loss at home last night at the hands of the Twins, I am expecting a huge response from Chicago at the plate in this one. They'll need it because I look for Lester to get hit hard. Even off a fortunate outing in his last start, Lester has a 6.82 ERA in the 7 starts he has made since mid-August. More of the same here. The Cubs .439 slugging percentage in road games ranks them 8th in the majors. Prior to a 2-1 home loss yesterday, the Pirates had scored 4 or more runs in 10 of their past 15 home games. They bounce right back against Lester in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET - These are two very potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to struggle and two bullpens that have each had their share of ups and downs to say the least. It will be a cool afternoon with the wind blowing in from right field but all the above factors trap that one in my opinion. I also like the fact that this total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 as we now get some line value. The odds makers set the total at double digits for a reason. Braves Wright is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA this season. Mets Porcello is 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA this season. Enough said! 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:05 ET - The coldest team in MLB right now is the Blue Jays whom have lost 5 straight games. Play on Phillies here? No, not even with "monopoly money". Lol. The fact is Phillies fans wish Vince Velasquez would never pitch another game in a Philadelphia uniform. He has had so many chances to prove himself through the years since the Phillies got him in a trade with the Astros. However, the only thing he has been consistent with is his struggles. He just can't put it together on the mound but I do like the Phillies bats - riding a double-header sweep yesterday - to stay hot here. Yes, I know that Hyun-Jin Ryu has good career numbers against the Phillies and is having a strong season. However, riding the momentum of yesterday's win and the fact that Ryu won't pitch that deep into this game, the Phillies will do some damage at the plate here. However, with Velasquez (winless and 6.46 ERA this season) and the worst bullpen in baseball, the Phillies have no chance of holding the Blue Jays down in this one. Considering the above as well as the fact that this total has dropped from an opener of 9 down to as low as an 8 as of early Saturday morning, I like the value in what should be a back and forth game with more runs than many expect. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - I am aware of Max Fried being a candidate for the Cy Young award this season. I am also aware of the weather forecast featuring a north wind blowing in and a little taste of fall in the air this evening in New York. However, the Mets lineup is red-hot and the Braves have been one of the top hitting teams in baseball this season, and I expect this game to fly over the low total. Keep in mind, there has been a pitching change announced Thursday for this Friday match-up and it will be Steven Matz getting the start. Not only is he 0-4 with an 8.63 ERA this season, he is making his first start since mid-August as he has been bothered by shoulder bursitis in his left arm. This is a battle of southpaws and, speaking of injuries, Fried is also coming back from one as he has had muscle spasms lead to an issue in his back. Fried will be making his first start in nearly two weeks. He has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in his last two starts so he has been far from dominant in recent outings. Fried is facing a Mets team that is familiar with him and has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. As for Matz, he is now 18-32 with a 4.69 ERA since the 2017 season began. You can see why I have no hesitation in fading him here. Opponents are hitting .364 against Matz in night games this season and he has an 11.64 ERA under the lights. The 29-year old southpaw faces an Atlanta team which has a .479 slugging percentage ranking #2 in the majors this year.  The Braves have won 11 of 18 games and have scored an average of 7.1 runs during this solid stretch. The Mets are off a momentum-boosting series against the Phillies and have won 8 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 15 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets 

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Yesterday's game didn't get over the total until late but each team did finish the game with scoring at least 5 runs and with totaling 11 hits apiece. When both lineups are going and you have a low total like we do today I won't hesitate to take advantage. Yes, I know cooler weather moving into the Chicago area this time of year and the wind is expected to be blowing in for this contest. However, that is also serving to keep this total lower than it should be in my opinion. Jon Lester starts for the Cubs and is off a strong start. However, he has not had solid back to back starts since early August. In fact, prior to his good start last week, Lester had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. That rough stretch was preceded by a quality start against the Indians. However, the fact that Cleveland is now facing him a 2nd time plus the fact he had been struggling prior to strong start at Milwaukee sets this one up well for Cleveland to do some damage at the plate. They'll need it because I do expect Aaron Civale to get touched up too! Civale gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Civale is facing a Cubs lineup that is growing with confidence as Chicago has won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those 4 victories. The Indians are mired in a 7-game losing streak but runs are coming in bunches in recent games as yesterday's loss here at Wrigley Field was the 3rd straight Cleveland game to total more than 10 runs. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are hitting .284 against left-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 4th in the majors and they should pound Sean Manaea here. The A's southpaw has made one career start at Coors Field and he allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. However, the Oakland bats should also be rolling tonight. Yesterday the Athletics played a double header at Seattle and scored 14 runs in 14 innings! Now they take on a struggling Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 outings. In those 3 starts Senzatela has given up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, opponents hit .313 against him last year and he compiled a 6.71 ERA on the season. Now Senzatela appears to be regressing toward the same struggles that plagued him last season. Facing the hot A's lineup is unlikely to help matters. Oakland has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last 6 games and 4 of those games were just 7 inning games! In fact if you adjust that factor out of it then it would mean the A's are averaging about 8 runs per 9 innings over their last 6 games. The last two games played at Coors Field have been low-scoring but this was immediately preceded by a stretch in which 11 of the 15 games played here totaled at least a dozen runs and most of those got into the mid-teens which is what I am forecasting here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Ultra Early Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - While I certainly respect the Nats Max Scherzer I also very much respect the potent Braves lineup. Also, the weather will be ideal for an over in DC today. Additionally, the Braves Kyle Wright is likely to get crushed here. In 9 MLB starts in his career, he has only gotten through 5 innings twice! Wright has an ugly 8.80 ERA this season. Scherzer is off a great start versus the Rays but, prior to that, he had just 1 good start in his last 4. Those other 3 outings saw him allow a total of 12 earned runs in 17 and 2/3 innings. I feel the powerful Braves sticks, who had been on fire prior to yesterday, are going to get to Scherzer early and often. The last time he faced them he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. With Atlanta having a strong showing at the plate and Wright continuing to get hammered, this one will surprise a lot of people as it gets into double digits in runs scored even though Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:10 ET - The Phillies won Game 1 yesterday by a count of 11-0 and then Game 2 was a 5-3 Marlins win that saw the teams combine for 21 hits. Not only that, those were 7 innings games folks! Look for the slugfest to continue today because there are question marks about both starters in this match-up and the Philadelphia bullpen continues to struggle badly. That means runs early, often and throughout this one. The Phillies start Spencer Howard and the rookie has a 5.66 ERA in his 5 starts as he is still searching for consistency. Speaking of consistency, it will take awhile for the Marlins Jose Urena to get back into a groove too. He just made his first start of 2020. Keep in mind, last season Urena went 4-10 with a 5.21 ERA and opponents hit nearly .300 against him. He was particularly bad at home where he went 1-7 with a 6.69 ERA in his 10 games (7 starts) and opponents hit .335 against him in Miami. Now he faces a Phillies team that has been hot at the plate in recent weeks and the power surge continues here. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - These teams combined for 13 runs in yesterday's game and I expect more of the same in today's match-up. Yes, Josh Tomlin had a strong start versus the Nationals last week but now he faces them at Washington. Note that on the road in 2018 he had a 6.29 ERA and got hit at a .311 clip. Then, last season he had a 4.28 ERA on the road with a .280 BAA. This season so far he struggled badly in his only road start. In fact that was part of a stretch in which Tomlin, just before the good outing against the Nats, allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 21 hits in 12 and 2/3 innings! The Nationals start Erick Fedde here and he is 7-10 with a 5.37 ERA and has been hit at a .289 clip in his MLB career. Fedde just faced the Braves last week and the results were disastrous and facing them again right away, with how hot the Atlanta lineup has been, is absolutely an invitation for disaster.  The Braves have won 8 of 12 games and have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game during this hot stretch! The Nationals have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game their last half dozen games. 10* OVER the total in Washington 

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays start Josh Fleming. He is coming off a tough start at home versus the Marlins. That doesn't bode well for now facing a Red Sox team that, despite having a rough season, still does have a dangerous lineup. Fleming allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of work. He has given up 3 homers in 10 innings spanning his two home starts in this, his rookie, season. The Red Sox start Mike Kickham. He is 31 years old but has very little MLB experience but Boston is so desperate for pitching. Kickham is 1-3 with a 10.19 ERA in his 16 career MLB appearances. The Rays entered Tuesday's game having scored an average of 5 runs per game their 8 most recent games and I look for Tampa Bay to take advantage of facing Kickham and a poor Red Sox bullpen as they bounce back from a 5-3 loss. As for the Boston lineup, they have averaged nearly 7 runs per game their last 4 games and that is even though two of those games were 7-inning games (double-header with Phillies Tuesday). The Rays bullpen also hasn't lived up to its billing lately so look for runs from both teams early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay 

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:35 ET - This game being played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo and the wind will be blowing out toward right or right-center at a decent clip as a weather front moves through the area starting late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. I like this set-up for some long ball damage in this one! Yes the Yankees have been slumping but they can break out against Tanner Roark here. Yesterday the Yankees left 10 men on base and went 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. I expect them to make up for that here. Roark has allowed 5 homers in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Opponents are hitting .317 against Roark this season. Also, in his home starts he has a 7.00 ERA and in night games he has a 6.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by Deivi Garcia on the mound for the Yankees. I know the 21-year old rookie is known for his curveball but he is making just his 3rd big league start and allowed 4 runs in less than 5 innings in his start last week. Also, Toronto was averaging 7.7 runs per game prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. That said, I look for the powerful Blue Jays bats to come right back to life and take advantage of facing a rookie hurler still learning the ropes on a hitter-friendly night in upstate New York tonight. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Mets just faced the Phillies two best pitchers - Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler - but scored 22 runs in the 2 games! New York is feeling it right now at the plate and now will take advantage of a big stepdown in class for this one. The Orioles send John Means to mound. The Baltimore southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his 6 starts this season and just faced the Mets last week which certainly won't help him here! Starting for New York it will be Michael Wacha on the mound. He is 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the season and has been rocked at a .322 clip in his 5 starts. Last season Wacha was hit at a .290 clip and struggled to a 4.76 ERA for the Cardinals so this is not a complete shock that he has been very hittable this season. Also, Baltimore enters this game with some confidence at the plate as they have won 5 of 7 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games. Considering all the above, this is a rather low total posted on this game and I won't hesitate in going to my highest level with the rating on this play. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners Marco Gonzales has great numbers this season but he has been inconsistent and generally gets hit hard when off a good start. He has not been able to string together good outings very often at all and is off a good start. In other words, that is a good sign for our purposes here. Another good sign is that the Rangers hit him hard when they faced him last month. Texas got to Gonzales for 4 earned runs in 5 innings. After yesterday's 4-3 loss for the Rangers, look for them to bounce back at the plate as they again get to Gonzales early and often. Texas will need all the runs they can get because I expect Kolby Allard to get rocked. He has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and one of those was here at Seattle as well. Additionally, Allard has been hit hard in day games this season. In other words, this is not an ideal match-up for either pitcher and I am going to take advantage of the low total (8 / 8.5) posted on this game and go with a top play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:35 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game between these teams but 4 of the 5 were solo bombs. The game stayed just under the total as it ended up with 8 runs. Look for today's game to make up for it. For one thing this is a day game and the ball should carry at least as it did in last night's homer-filled contest. For another thing, the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Pirates Chad Kuhl allowed 2 homers in 5 innings against the Reds last month. Also, Kuhl is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in just 4 innings. Kuhl has allowed 6 homers in his last 5 starts and the Reds sluggers are feeling it after going yard 4 times in yesterday's game. The Pirates also should enjoy success at the plate in this one. Pittsburgh is facing Cincinnati's Teejay Antone. He has mostly worked out of the pen this season. Antone is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and that means plenty of Reds bullpen likely to be involved in this one and it has not been a good start to the season for them overall. As for Antone, he allowed 2 homers in his most recent appearance (a start) and gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings. In his only other start this season he walked 4 in 4 and 1/3 innings. More struggles for Antone (as well as the Reds pen) in this one and it should fly over the total as the Cincy sluggers have a big game again too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Zach Eflin has good stuff but he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters and this season has been no exception in that regard. I like taking the Nationals bats to bounce back after last night's shutout loss and they go from facing Nola and Wheeler to a step down in level of pitcher in Eflin. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid pitcher but moreso when the match-ups favor him and this is not one of those cases as he has a history of some struggles against a number of Washington hitters. The good news for Eflin is he should get plenty of run support here. Even though the Phillies only scored 3 runs yesterday they faced one of the best hurlers in the game in the form of Max Scherzer. That said, facing Anibal Sanchez will quickly rejuvenate the Phillies sticks. Philadelphia enters this game having won 8 of 9 games and they have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game their last 10 games. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest in ideal afternoon weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez is 1-4 with a 6.90 ERA this season and has been hit at a .326 clip in his 6 starts this year. More of the same this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Kyle Hendricks is winless with a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 10 hits in 6 innings in his most recent start. Historically Hendricks has been better at home than on the road and that trend has continued this season. He compiled a 5.02 ERA on the road last season and has a 6.61 ERA away from home so far this season. The Chicago right-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Joe Musgrove. The Cubs have a .464 slugging percentage in road games this season (#2 out of 30 MLB teams!) and Musgrove will be making his first start since August 4th. He is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season and plus dealing with triceps inflammation. That is why he has been out for 4 weeks. Plus Musgrove was worse at home (5.09 ERA) than on the road last season. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings in his most recent start but he gave up 8 hits. Lester was hit at a .294 clip by opponents last season and has now allowed 14 earned runs on 26 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Chicago left-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Chad Kuhl. The Cubs have a .467 slugging percentage in road games this season and Kuhl has 7 walks against just 2 strikeouts in his last 2 starts and he has been fortunate the damage was minimized. Kuhl has allowed 10 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings the last two times he has faced the Cubs. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - The Cardinals erupted for 7 runs in their win yesterday. The Reds got drilled 10-1 yesterday but should bounce back at the plate here. Why? Dakota Hudson is on the mound for St Louis. He has good numbers this season but 3 of his 4 starts have been at home. Why does that matter? Historically Hudson has dominated at home but struggled on the road and I look for that to continue here. The Cardinals right-hander had a 4.13 ERA and got hit at a .271 clip on the road last season and he had a 5.54 ERA in his 12 away appearances the year before that. Now he faces a Reds team that had won 4 of 5 games prior to getting blasted yesterday. Cincinnati scored 6 runs in all 4 of those wins and 3 of those were just 7 inning games! As for St Louis, they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Anthony DeSclafani and this is a great spot to fade him. DeSclafani hasn't pitched in 10 days as he was away on paternity leave. Also, that start came against the Cards so they are getting a quick "second look" at him now. DeScalfani allowed 8 baserunners in his 4 innings in that start against St Louis and he was lucky the damage wasn't worse. This time it will be! Keep in mind in his only home start this season (the one preceding his road start at St Louis) DeSclafani allowed 9 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. He gave up 3 homers at Great American Ball Park in that one. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Game of the Month Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Brewers start Brett Anderson in this one. The lefty had a 4.67 ERA in home games last season (with Oakland) and has a 4.26 ERA at home so far this season. Last year he got hit at a .292 clip when pitching as the host and this season so far he has been hit at a .286 clip at Miller Park. 6 of the 7 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. Pittsburgh, prior to yesterday's 9-1 loss, had scored at least 5 runs in 5 of 6 meetings with the Brewers this season. The fact is, as bad as the Bucs season has been thus far, they have had some success against Milwaukee pitching. Look for more of the same here but also look for Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker to get crushed. The rookie right-hander will be facing the same team twice for the first time this season. When teams get a second look at a hurler that does make a big difference and the Brewers just saw him on Sunday. Brubaker has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts and this could be the start where the wheels come off for him! Milwaukee got their sticks going yesterday and can carry that momentum right into today's game. Look for the high-scoring trend in Pirates / Brewers match-ups to continue on Saturday evening at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals @ 7:30 ET - The Nationals Max Scherzer is, of course, a big name pitcher so that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Scherzer has actually struggled of late as he has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts and this has helped lead the way to him being charged with 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings. Also, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in his 11 career starts against Boston. The Red Sox start Martin Perez in this one and he is having a decent start to the season based on his ERA but that is helping to give us value here because he has been on the cusp of major trouble in a number of his starts. In other words it is likely he is eventually going to get pounded and I would not be surprised to see the wheels come off for Perez in this home start. He has struggled more at Fenway Park than on the road this season and, keep in mind, Perez had a 5.12 ERA last season and a 6.22 ERA the year before. The bad times are imminent for Perez as he won't be so lucky to escape big damage this evening. Looks like favorable weather conditions expected in Boston for this one tonight too. With the Red Sox also having a shaky bullpen and having lost more arms in recent trades, I see this game flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - 2016 - 4.47 ERA. 2017 - 4-12 record 5.72 ERA. 2018 - 1-4 record 5.88 ERA. 2019 - 4.11 ERA. 2020 - 8.00 ERA. What stats are these? They are the numbers from Tyler Chatwood's night game outings. He has had some big seasons in day games but tends to struggle in night starts and now Chatwood is making this start after being out with a mid-back strain since early August. That said, this is unlikely to go well for him. The Cubs hammered the Tigers 9-3 yesterday and Detroit has now allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 13 games. Though not a great team offensively, the Tigers have averaged 4 runs per game in their last 7 home games. With this total at a 9.5 and Chatwood likely to give up some and Spencer Turnbull likely to get hit hard, this one should easily get to double digits. Turnbull has faded recently. He started strong this season but now has allowed 6 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings (while walking 8!) in his last two outings (both short ones as you can see). Turnbull entered this season with a 3-19 MLB record and ERA up near 5.00 and now faces a Cubs team that is hitting .266 in home games this season which ranks them 5th out of the 30 MLB teams. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - Waiting has paid off here this morning as we're now seeing some 9 starting to show up on this one. This total opened up at a 9.5 which may seem high at first glance but a closer look shows you why the odds makers set it this way. Now we'll take advantage of the false perception of the betting markets that has driven this total lower. The Marlins Pablo Lopez shows a 2.42 ERA on the season but the Nationals have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Additionally, Lopez has allowed 14 hits in 12 innings spanning his last two starts and those were both at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 hits plus walked 4 for a total of 9 baserunners in just 5 innings. Now Lopez must deal with a Nats team that is starting to turn the corner (particularly at the plate). Though only 7-6 in their last 13 games, Washington has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch! The issue for the Nationals today will be on the mound as Austin Voth gets the start. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though not knocking the cover off the ball the Marlins have averaged 4.4 runs per game their last 11 games and Voth is not in good current form. Miami will take advantage. The result should be a back and forth high-scoring affair with a lot more scoring than many are expecting here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - Friday's game had 8 runs through 6 innings and stayed under the total. Saturday's game had 7 runs through 5 innings and stayed under the total. Sunday's game? It goes over the total. The odds makers opened this game up with a total of 9 for a reason but it has dropped to an 8.5 as the betting markets think it is a mistake that this total is posted this way. That's because Dylan Bundy and Frankie Montas were so strong early this season and the thinking is that they will bounce back here. I beg to differ. One of the keys here is that Bundy has shown a history of struggling once he gets down. That said, after that great start to the season he then struggled and allowed 4 runs to the Giants in just 4 innings plus he walked 4 as he had issues with command of his pitches. When you enter a season having gone 15-30 with an ERA north of 5.00 the prior two seasons combined it doesn't take much to dent your confidence. Now Bundy faces and A's team that will be seeing him for the 3rd time already in a span of a month. That often doesn't go well for the pitcher as the more a lineup sees him, the more they start to get better swings at his pitches. This is particularly true if said pitcher is struggling with the location of his pitches. I expect a few of Bundy's mistakes end up in the outfield seats on a mild afternoon with a light breeze blowing out. As for Montas, he got absolutely crushed in his most recent start (which was also a day game by the way) as he allowed 9 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. This will be the 2nd time he is facing the Angels this season and in the prior start he definitely "scuffled" a bit as he walked 3 plus hit a batter and overall allowed 7 baserunners in just 4 innings. That will eventually lead to trouble, just like it did for him against the Diamondbacks earlier this week. Both starting pitchers could be a helluva lot better than they just were and yet this one still will go over the low total. I like both lineups. I know the Angels have underachieved early this season but they still have some big-time pop in their lineup and the A's are generally solid at the plate in home games (particularly day games). 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:05 ET - Of course I am well aware of the fact that the Pirates have been the worst team in MLB so far this season. I am also well aware of the fact that the Brewers have struggled at the plate thus far on the season. However, this total was set at 9.5 with good reason and I think the set up is ideal for a big game at the plate for both teams. The Pirates have a much needed boost of confidence after yesterday's 7-2 win saw them pound out 14 hits. The Brewers had a tough time at the plate yesterday but will take advantage of facing Pittsburgh's Derek Holland here. He is winless with a 7.36 ERA in his 4 games this season and has been particularly bad in his 3 starts. Holland got progressively worse with each start he made and the Brewers get to him early and often in this one. The Pirates will likely strike out often against Josh Lindblom but the Milwaukee right-hander still has a knack for giving up big hits and Pittsburgh is "feeling it" at the plate after yesterday's big win. Lindblom has a 7.07 ERA so far this month and has had trouble with allowing too many homers. On the season the journeyman right-hander has given up too many walks too as he has had trouble with command of his pitches. Look for more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Afternoon Annihilation – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 3:10 ET – This line has moved overnight from an 11.5 down to an 11 and that is giving us even more line value in what is an excellent situation here. The Astros and Rockies combined for 19 runs yesterday. A lot of it came off the bullpens as the teams combined for 30 hits. When you factor in the bullpen struggles with the fact that both starting pitchers should struggle today and both lineups scored well yesterday and it is an afternoon game at a very hitter-friendly ballpark…you have all the ingredients for a slug-fest here. The Astros Cristian Javier has great numbers on the young season but he is a 23-year old rookie making his first ever start at Coors Field and he already has a 6.00 ERA this season. As for the Rockies German Marquez, I know he is a quality pitcher with good stuff but the Astros have a number of hitters that have fared well against him and the key is that he is a much better pitcher on the road than at home. He has a low ERA this season at home but that has been in just 2 starts and opponents have hit .288 against him at Coors Field. In other words, the earned runs are soon to follow! Last season Marquez was hit at a .317 clip at home and compiled a 6.26 ERA. Look for runs early, often, and throughout what should be a wild day game affair. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:35 ET - The Orioles start Wade LeBlanc in this one. He went 6-7 with a 5.71 ERA last season and that included getting rocked when he faced the Blue Jays as a member of the Mariners. So far his time in a Baltimore uniform hasn't gone any better. He has a 7.13 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole this season. Look for Toronto to get to him early and often in this one. The issue for the Jays will be the fact that hard-throwing rookie Nate Pearson is enduring some growing pains. After going 5 scoreless in his debut, Pearson allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his next start and had some issues with command of his pitches in that one. That then really became an issue for Pearson in his next start as he was absolutely rocked by the Marlins and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in that one. The Orioles scored just 2 runs in last night's game but entered that one averaging 6.9 runs per game over their preceding 10 games. Baltimore has allowed 6.9 runs per game in their past 7 games. The Blue Jays last 5 games have totaled an average of 13.4 runs per game. More of the same on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NL East Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are hungry to bounce back after getting swept by the division rival Phillies. New York faced some tough starting pitching in that series but now gets a break in facing the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto. Miami is also looking to bounce back after suffering a home shutout at the hands of the Braves yesterday. They will take advantage of facing a Mets bullpen that struggled some in the series at Philadelphia. Certainly that bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one because starter Robert Gsellman is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Mets are expecting around 50 pitches in this one for him after he threw only 33 in his first start. Gsellman was impressive in his short rookie campaign in 2016 but has a 4.83 ERA since then so he has been nothing special and is still trying to get "stretched out" early this season. Yamamoto is struggling with allowing too many homers early this season and last year (his rookie campaign) he was much better on the road in comparison with at home as he compiled a 6.00 ERA in his 8 home starts. Yamamoto has allowed 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in each of his two starts so far this season even though he didn't last more than 4 innings in either one. He is facing a Mets team whose .262 team batting average ranks 2nd in the National League behind only Colorado. Look for the Mets to pound Yamamoto while the Marlins bounce back at the plate at home after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 3:10 ET - For those of you that were with me on the over in this match-up yesterday we share in our feelings of disbelief. I have been in this business for multiple decades and that was one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. Ultimately we fell just short which didn't surprise me because we had so many wasted opportunities inning after inning and I knew this would ultimately cost us. The teams threatened constantly but went a combined 4 for 29 with runners in scoring position. That is not a mistake in my typing...there were indeed 29 at-bats with runners in scoring position and yet the teams failed to cash in time and time again. The teams also combined to hit into 5 double plays in the game. You couldn't script a much more frustrating game for an over player. I was dead wrong when I played the over in this match-up Friday but I was spot on Saturday and the result was just a ridiculous bad beat. It happens. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm. Afternoon game at Coors Field with designated hitter too plus temperatures near 100 degrees and practically no humidity. In this very light air the ball will be carrying like crazy and I look for both these pitchers to get hit hard. I know Kolby Allard has strong numbers for the Rangers this season but that is in very limited action. This is still a guy who has a 5.34 ERA in his MLB career. When he faced Colorado as a member of the Braves two years ago he gave up 3 earned runs in just 1 inning and that start was in Atlanta. Now he faces them at Coors Field and the Rockies get to him early and often in my opinion. As for Colorado starter Jon Gray, he is winless with a 6.41 ERA in his four starts this season. Gray has a 7.08 ERA at home this season and entered this season going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA in day game outings the past two seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - I missed badly with this play yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Favorable weather for an over expected at Coors Field tonight in Denver and I like this pitching match-up in terms of expecting plenty of runs. I know German Marquez has great numbers this season but he has only made one of his four starts at home. Keep in mind this guy would have even more fantastic numbers if he didn't have to pitch his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez had a 6.26 ERA at home last season and got hit at a .317 clip there. His most recent start was at Seattle and he did allow 5 runs though only 2 were earned. His strikeouts were down in that start too. I feel that is a sign of things to come here for Marquez as he now makes just his 2nd home start of the season. The Rangers counter with Kyle Gibson and I feel strongly that his better years are far behind him. Having spent most of his career in the AL he has never faced the Rockies and they will give him a rude welcome to Coors Field here. Gibson entered this season having had just one solid season out of the past four years in terms of a low ERA. In the other 3 seasons his ERA was a 5.00 combined. He'll struggle here in hitter-friendly Coors Field and both teams bounce back at the plate after last night's unusual pitchers' duel here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:40 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn had a strong start against the Rockies to open up this season but that game was in Texas. Now he gives the Colorado sticks another look at him and the game is at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Lynn went a combined 11-17 in road starts the past two seasons and that included having an ERA above 6.00 in outings away from home in 2018. His breaking stuff may not break as well given the weather conditions expected in Denver Friday evening. He'll be opposed by Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani who had a successful 4-inning stint in his MLB debut. Keep in mind that was on the road at Seattle and now he'll battle the much tougher conditions of pitching at Coors Field. First starts for young hurlers at Coors Field tend to not go well. Castellani did pitch well against the Mariners but did give up quite a lot of hard contact. That will lead to more trouble here than it did in the Pacific Northwest. The result should be runs early and often in this one. The Rockies series with the Diamondbacks averaged 18.3 runs per game and that was a 3-game set that wrapped up Wednesday. Look for this weekend set to also be high-scoring. 9 of the Rangers last 13 games have been games that got into a total of double digits in terms of runs scored and, of course, at Coors Field those types of games would translate to about 15 runs. Look for a slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:30 ET - Kyle Hart is a rookie making his first ever MLB appearance and the Red Sox southpaw will face a Rays team that is suddenly scoring runs aplenty. Tampa Bay is on a 5-game winning streak and averaging 7 runs per 9 innings during this hot streak. They are scoring well and that continues here against a rookie that will prove to be over-matched in his first ever MLB appearance plus has a bad bullpen behind him. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox also do plenty of damage at the plate in this one too. Boston had 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and now faces Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay right-hander is struggling to round into form this season. Glasnow has a 7.36 ERA in the month of August and has struggled to command his offerings. Too many walks getting him into trouble. That continues here and this one flies over the total at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Jordan Montgomery got rocked by the Phillies in his most recent start. Also, the Yankees southpaw is known for struggling against right-handed bats and he'll see plenty of those in the Braves lineup tonight. As for Atlanta starter Touki Toussaint, he is off a great start versus the Blue Jays but he is known for struggling in road outings. Pitching at Yankee Stadium against the potent Bronx Bombers is no easy task so this is likely to be a particularly rough outing for Toussaint. I know the Atlanta right-hander had his curve working against Toronto in his most recent start but he'll hang a few of those tonight and the Yankees sure know what to do with those! The Yankees .455 slugging percentage is #1 in the American League. The Braves .460 slugging percentage in road games is #1 in the National League (not including Nationals as they just played their first road game of the season). Considering the above factors as well as the fact that a light breeze is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one, and you have all the right ingredients for a slugfest in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Hot weather expected today in Denver and then a nice south wind helping us out through the evening. I am looking for a high-scoring slugfest at Coors Field on Monday night. The Rockies Jon Gray actually has a tendency to pitch well at home but that hasn't been the case against the Diamondbacks. Versus Arizona in 5 home starts in his career, Gray is winless with a 6.08 ERA. Also Gray has shown a tendency to struggle more against lefties than righties and he'll face plenty of left-handed lumber in the Dbacks lineup tonight. As for Arizona starter he is struggling badly early this season and the last place you want to try to work out your struggles as an MLB pitcher is Coors Field! In this most hitter-friendly venue, look for Ray to get crushed. He is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA so far this season. Also, the Rockies lineup is absolutely loaded with guys who have crushed Ray. Colorado has seen plenty of Ray since they are divisional rivals and this is his 6th straight season as a full time starter for the Diamondbacks. I know Arizona has not hit well on the road this season but Coors Field is very kind to hitters and they've enjoyed success here against Gray. Also, the Rockies are the #1 home hitting team in the majors with a .293 BAA thus far on the season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - The Giants Kevin Gausman went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA. The hope for him was that a change of scenery would get him going here in San Francisco. However, though he piled up strikeouts in his first two starts he also makes too many mistake pitches. He also faced the Dodgers out of the pen two weeks ago and that won't help him here as it didn't go well and now Los Angeles will be seeing him again in a rather short span of time and plus with the Dodgers off a tight loss yesterday in which they didn't hit well, you can bet their lineup will be dialed in for a much better performance at the plate in this one. Also, it is a day game at Dodger Stadium and the ball does carry better here in day games than night games. Walker Buehler is familiar with that and has struggled more in day games than night games so far in his young career. Also, he's scuffling a bit early this season as he is still trying to round into form. Make no mistake he is ultra talented but his command is a little off and that is why he is giving up too many homers early on. We get a low total because he is on the mound for this one and this has led to good value on the over and so I am raising this one to my highest level. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:10 ET - Being a contrarian has served me very well through the years and, of course, with these teams both struggling at the plate so far this season this one is contrarian all the way. But when the timing is right, being a contrarian is very rewarding. This looks like one of this spots and I am going over the total of 7.5 runs. Both teams induced 6 walks yesterday and I like seeing that kind of patience at the plate. The Reds start Luis Castillo here and he gave up 5 runs to the Tigers in his most recent start. Most of the damage was done by the bottom third of the Detroit lineup and that is not a good sign for Castillo as the Tigers are not exactly a powerhouse at the plate either. As for the Indians Carlos Carrasco, he gave up 3 homers in his most recent start but was lucky they were all solo bombs. Last season Carrasco went 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA in evening action (14 games, 5 starts). Both teams had base running mistakes and hit into double plays that cost them yesterday as well. Look for a result here that will surprise many and I forecast this game will be over the low total by the middle innings. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Being a contrarian is a key to long-term success in this industry. The odds makers are pretty sharp so when you see a line move dramatically from an opener it pays to pay attention. This is one of those cases where everything lines up and I love fading the line move. This total opened up at a 13 and has moved all the way down to an 11.5 in morning trading activity. Of course that is because German Marquez has had two great starts to open up the season and the fact is that he is a very good pitcher for sure. But he pitches his home games at Coors Field! Lets not forget that! His first two starts were on the road. Last season at home he got hit at a .317 clip and had a 6.26 ERA. The prior season Marquez had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .284 clip. In other words, it is no fluke as his numbers each of the past two seasons reflect the strong home/road dichotomy that so many Rockies pitchers have. Making things now even tougher on pitchers at Coors Field is that they have to also face a designated hitter now instead of a pitcher at the plate. Now lets talk about Giants starter Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander is off a 3-9 season that saw him compile a 5.72 ERA. In his first two appearances as a Giant (one start) he has been rocked at a .343 clip by opposing hitters. Now he'll get to enjoy Coors Field on top of all this! In other words, this one likely to get ugly in a hurry as both lineups enjoy big days! 10* OVER the total in Colorado 

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - I know the Pirates haven't been hitting the ball very well and are having a rough start to the season but I look for them to do some damage against Lewis Thorpe. The Twins southpaw has been solid in two outings out of the bullpen this season but now makes a rare start. Thorpe pitched in 12 games last season (2 starts) and compiled a 6.18 ERA plus was hit at a .336 clip. You can see why I am expecting the Pirates bats to make some noise here. Certainly we should also see the Twins sticks make a lot of noise too. They are coming off a low-scoring series but that came against a pitching-heavy lineup-weak Indians team. Now Minnesota, loaded with right-handed power, will take advantage of facing Bucs southpaw Derek Holland. The Pittsburgh lefty pitched with two teams last season and logged 51 games (8 starts) and ended up 2-5 with a 6.08 ERA. Facing a powerful AL lineup won't help matters for Holland. Keep in mind his last season in the American League was in 2017 with the White Sox and he went 7-14 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for both starters to get rocked here and I expect the confidence of each lineup to, as a result, grow as this game goes on and the pens will end up getting pounded too as a result. The bats come to life based on the pitching match-up at Target Field for this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Sunshine Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Huge total posted on this game and, keep in mind, the first game of the series was fortunate to go over the total as it took some 9th inning magic to send it flying over. However, even with all that said, I like the over a ton in this match-up Sunday. This will be the first day game played at Coors Field with a designated hitter. It is expected to be a warm afternoon in Denver and the ball carries particularly well here in day games. The Rockies starter is Antonio Senzatela and he had a 5.15 ERA in home games in 2017, got hit at a .316 clip in home games in 2018, and had a 9.27 ERA in day games in 2019. Even though the Padres were held to just 1 run in last night's loss here, they had been swinging the bats well and will bounce right back here. The issue for San Diego this afternoon will be their own pitching situation. I know Zach Davies had a decent first start this season but that was in a more pitcher-friendly environment for sure. This will be a tough spot for him Sunday and last season Davies had a 4.81 ERA in day games. In 2018 he had a 4.95 ERA in road games. The Rockies had double digits in hits yesterday but slowed down at the plate after scoring 6 runs in the first 5 innings. Today they will be forced to score throughout the contest because the Padres answer them run for run in this one and the first day game with a DH instead of a pitcher batting for each side will turn into a back and forth slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - The Red Sox are starting Zack Godley as an opener in this one. I am aware of the fact that he struck out 7 in 4 scoreless innings in his first appearance this season and that the Yankees do tend to strike out a lot. However, I am not sold on Godley after just one outing. This is still a guy whom had a 6.39 ERA in 2016, 4.74 ERA in 2018, and 6.39 ERA in 2019 with the Diamondbacks. That is an NL team and now he is pitcher in the tougher AL and facing the Yankees in the Bronx. I look for him to get tattooed here. Keep in mind, behind him is a Red Sox pitching staff that has helped lead to Boston having one of the highest ERAs in the league so far this season. So the Yankees should score plenty here and I also expect the Red Sox bats to come back to life too after yesterday's 5-1 loss. Boston will take advantage of facing a pitcher who could be struggling a bit with the mental aspect of pitching in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start here and he took a vicious line drive off the head in early July from one of his own teammates as the Yankees were preparing for the season. Also, Tanaka will be facing a Red Sox team that crushed him for 22 earned runs in 8 innings last season. You read that right...22 earned runs...8 innings! Look for a slugfest in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - This will be interesting. For the first time ever that I am aware of, a game at Coors Field will feature a designated hitter. As long-time followers know, games at Coors Field can get nuts due to the thin air in the high altitude and how well the ball carries. Now over players will also have the added benefit of the pitcher NOT batting and that means no more rally-ending situations where a pitcher that is hitting .050 walks up to the plate. For these reasons, games at Coors Field should be crazier than ever as another key comment I want to make is the way pitches break here is different too. It is not an easy park to pitch in and this will be the first time ever pitching here for the Padres Garrett Richards Though he had a successful first start against Arizona to open this season he relied heavily on his breaking pitches. Richards won't be able to have the same command of those pitches in this setting Friday night. Speaking of lacking command, the Rockies Jon Gray was a little "off" with his in his first start this season. That spells trouble here as he faces a Padres lineup "feeling it" after last night's 12-7 10th inning win at San Francisco. The Padres have scored an average of 6 runs per game this season while the Rockies enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories and they were all on the road. Colorado should score even better here at home but the surging Padres lineup should answer them run for run as well. The result here is a high-scoring slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado