Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:07 ET - This line opened up at a 9 and the whole world jumped on the under as if the odds makers don't know what they're doing. Of course all you have to do is take one look at the glitz and glamour of where I live here in Vegas (shiny hotels, beautiful sportsbooks) to know who usually wins when it comes to making lines! The point is that with this total now an 8.5 and with the over available without even laying juice at that number, it is a great value and I am going with a top play here. The Indians are off a home shutout yesterday. I love taking teams to bounce back in a situation like that and I expect Cleveland's lineup to respond in a big way here. Yes, the Twins Jose Berrios and the Indians Shane Bieber have a certain reputation but lets take a closer look at the specifics here! Berrios faded badly late last season. Just look at his numbers from August and September. In other words, the fact he struggled in his opening start this season may not be such a surprise. Berrios is battling himself a bit and his confidence is down. He also gave up 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against Cleveland last season and that was when he was still in pretty decent form too. In other words, today's start is likely to go worse than those and yet outings like either of those should be enough for us to see this game go over the total. That's because the Indians Bieber gave up multiple homers in 3 of his last 4 starts against the Twins last season. They got to him for 2 homers in 2 of those games and 3 homers in another game. That said, and with the way Minnesota has been swinging the bats early this season, I am expecting a slugfest to erupt at Target Field on Thursday night. Most won't see this game this way but you have to dig deeper for the nuggets on games and it should pay off for us here with great value on this low total. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - analysis will be posted here by 9 AM ET; please check back then for the full write up on this top play selection; thank you and best of luck, Scott  10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET – The Tigers are off back to back wins at Cincinnati and have a little momentum on their side as they enter their home opener Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to move through the Detroit area but, as of Sunday evening, the expectation based on the forecast is that those should push through the area in the afternoon. Though Comerica Park in Detroit is generally known as a pitchers’ park as it is quite spacious, the decent westerly wind expected following the passage of the storm front will also help our cause here. This could lead to some trouble for each pitching staff. That is really the key to this play as I do feel strongly that both lineups are certainly better than what they showed yesterday (Tigers snuck by Reds 3-2 while Royals were slaughtered at Cleveland). The key here is that both teams have used a lot of bullpen over the past 3 days and neither starting pitcher is likely to go deep in this game. The Royals Michael Montgomery had some struggles in summer camp and the Tigers Michael Fullmer is only expected to go three innings at the most in this one as he is returning from multiple injuries and making his first start since 2018. The result is both sub-par bullpens (these were two of the worst teams in the majors for team ERA last season) will be put to the test here. Neither starter will last long and I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in their preceding series and the managers have to be mindful of this as well. There are plenty of arms in each pen but managers want to be careful with top arms and Royals have no off days until August 10th and Tigers no off days until August 13th. With the lack of length from starting pitchers so far and the short outings likely from Montgomery and Fullmer here, the result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. Yes these are not the lineups of the Red Sox and Yankees but there are some respectable sticks in each of these lineups. You will see that when they go from facing tougher pitchers (in their first series of the season) and take a step down to the level of pitchers they face in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET – Truth be told the first game of this 4-game series (finale is tomorrow on Monday) never should have gone over the total. That was the extra inning game decided on a grand slam for a 7-3 A’s win. Then Saturday’s game two was a 4-1 Angels win in which, once again, neither team hit the ball all that well. That would make one lean toward the under in this match-up but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here. I like this pitching match-up to result in both teams having an early explosion on offense. Los Angeles is starting Shohei Ohtani and it will be his first start since 2018. He is coming back from Tommy John surgery and he struggled quite a bit with command in summer camp. Keep in mind Ohtani was struggling in intrasquad action and now will be pitching on the road against a big rival that is coming off a 4-1 loss yesterday. I expect Ohtani to have all sorts of trouble here as Oakland responds off Saturday’s loss and the pressure is on the young right-hander on the road. The A’s are starting a veteran in Mike Fiers. The Angels have a ton of experience against him and I am looking for their big bats to finally have that “breakout game” I have been expecting to see come alive at some point in this series. Fiers struggled in the final month of last season and seemed a bit “off” in the short summer camp heading into this season too. The long ball has been an issue and in an afternoon game at Oakland with a decent westerly wind expected this could lead to some trouble for the right-hander. I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in this series plus there is another game on tap in this series for tomorrow afternoon that the managers have to be mindful of as well. The result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET – Fenway Park is a tough place to pitch. The Orioles were supposed to have John Means going in this one. He can be tough at times. However, now it is Tommy Milone getting the start and he is likely to get crushed. Means is a solid southpaw but Milone went 4-10 with a 4.76 ERA last season. This is nothing new as, in the past 4 seasons combined, Milone has a 9-19 record with a 5.67 ERA. The 31 year old seemed to peak in 2015 and it is has been downhill ever since. Now he faces a potent Red Sox lineup that is known for crushing the ball at home. The issue for Boston this season, however, is pitching! That is no more evident than by looking at whom their opening day starter is…Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 5.62 ERA in his 9 career starts against the Orioles. Also, he has a 4.81 ERA in his career outings at Fenway Park. Last season in 23 appearances (12 starts), Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA! With Eovaldi historically struggling against the Orioles and with the Red Sox being one of the best hitting teams in MLB when they are at home, I look for this game to be a little back and forth early. Then the Red Sox should eventually pull away but it is going to take a lot of runs to do so. With some 9.5 still available as of Thursday night, I am pulling the trigger now and hitting the “go button” on this one for Friday’s action! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - IMPORTANT: I do NOT care whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up. In other words, if there ends up being a pitching change from the scheduled starters of Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin, my recommendation is to re-bet your wager! This play has much more to do with the lineups and the bullpens than anything else which is why the starting pitchers are not so important. First off each of the first two games in this series went over the total and, even though Game 3 did not, Friday's game most certainly should have gone over the total as well. The Nationals went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and EACH team left double digits in men on base! The Nats left a dozen on base and the Astros left 10 men on base last night. Both bullpens have had their share of shakiness in this series. As for the scheduled starters here, Urquidy is unlikely to work deep and could struggle as he is making his first start since late September. In other words, Urquidy has not been in the starters role in over 4 weeks. As for Corbin, he has struggled in the post-season as he has a 6.91 ERA and has been used as both a starter and a reliever in these playoffs. The point is that the situation is not stable with either one of these starters and both bullpens had a lot of work last night and both lineups are likely to cash in more opportunities this evening than they did in Game 3. Plenty of runs in Game 4 Saturday with favorable weather also expected in DC for this one. The over is 6-1 in the Nationals last 7 games against AL opponents. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 games against NL East opponents. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - Both teams swung the bats surprisingly well last night but both these pitchers tonight are fully capable of being in "shutdown mode" this evening. The Nationals Stephen Strasburg not only has a 1.64 ERA with 33 strikeouts and only 1 walk in these playoffs, he also has a minuscule 1.10 ERA in his post-season career! As for Justin Verlander, the Astros right-hander is 42-15 with a 2.45 ERA in his 73 regular season starts since coming to Houston from Detroit. In the post-season he has held hitters to averages of .177, .175, and .205 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019. In these playoffs he has struggled on the road but he dominated both of his home starts. More of the same expected here and we witness the pitchers duel in Game 2 that had been expected by many in Game 1. These #2 starters for each team easily would be #1 starters on most any other teams in baseball than the ones they are pitching for now. Take advantage as, instead of yesterday's 6.5 runs, we're now working with a total of 7.5 runs in this one. 10* UNDER the total in Houston

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - Pleasant temperatures and a light southeast breeze and a pitching match-up that should lead to plenty of runs. The Nationals exploded for 8 runs in last night's home win and they should have another big night at the plate tonight against a young hurler whom had some struggles in his first post-season start. The key to the value with tonight's over is that I also expect the Cardinals bats, for the first time in this series, to finally get going. That's because St Louis is facing Patrick Corbin. Though the Nationals southpaw enjoyed success against them at Busch Stadium last month, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone home start against the Cardinals this season. Also, Corbin has had some post-season struggles this year in his first ever playoff action. Corbin's lone start had strong overall numbers but saw him walk 5 in 6 innings. Then in his 3 bullpen appearances, the Nationals southpaw had one that was just to retire one batter (in this series) and then in the prior series versus the Dodgers he had a solid 1 and 1/3 inning stint but a disastrous 2/3 inning stint. Look for the Cardinals to get to Corbin early and often but note that St Louis starter Dakota Hudson is also likely to struggle here. The young right-hander was quite shaky in his first-ever post-season appearance last week. Also, the Nationals are getting a 3rd look at him this season and just saw him a month ago. The Nats are a very confident team right now as they have won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in the process. In home games, the Nats have averaged 6.4 runs per game their past 13 contests! But, as noted above, I don't see the Cardinals going away quietly in this series and this is an elimination game for them. Against Corbin, the St Louis bats come back to life. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - Chilly weather in St Louis for this one with temperatures in the 40s and breezy conditions and temperatures falling during the game. With Miles Mikolas having a 3.01 ERA at home this season and a 2.17 ERA at home last season and also having pitched well in this post-season, it is unlikely the Nationals will do much at the plate in this one. At the same time, note that the Cardinals are likely to be shut down by the Washington pitcher in this one. Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Nationals here and he has a 2.98 ERA in his post-season appearances in his career. Also, last season with the Braves he produced a 2.83 ERA in the regular season. This season he held hitters to a .225 batting average over the final two months of the regular season and Sanchez was fantastic in his post-season appearance against the Dodgers last week. This sets up very well to be a pitchers duel. 10* UNDER the total in St Louis

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:07 ET - The Astros Gerrit Cole has been absolutely dominating and certainly it is highly unlikely that he is anything but dominant in this outing at home on Thursday. Cole has allowed a TOTAL of only FIVE earned runs in his last SEVEN starts! 4 of his last 5 outings have resulted in an under. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he has had great numbers this season and is capable of working deeper into a game. After a respectable start against the Astros in game one marred only by a 2-run homer he allowed, Glasnow may be even stronger in Game Five after working out the nerves in his first ever post-season appearance! Of course this match-up also involves two of the best bullpens in baseball. I know the total is very low but I just can't foresee either team enjoying much success at the plate in this one. Cole's dominance is off the charts and lets not forget that Glasnow went 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his dozen regular season starts while holding the opposition to a paltry .186 batting averaged. 10* UNDER the total in Houston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 4 start. Keep in mind, Scherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Washington. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers yesterday were hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and they got the job done in a big way in Game 3. Now with a chance to slam the door shut on the Nationals season, I expect them to have another big day at the plate against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Rich Hill to struggle! He is not 100% healthy right now and he pitched less than 6 innings this month. In that short time he walked 6 and hit two batters. Even though Hill still was impressive in terms of strikeouts and not giving up hits, it is clear that he is not 100%. That said, the Nationals have a very potent lineup that was extra tough at home this season. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington

NOTE: The Nationals are now going with Anibal Sanchez and I am still going with a Top Play in Sunday's Game 3 between the Dodgers and the Nats. Note that Sanchez was strong in May and June but his ERA in the months of July, August, and September hung right around the 4.00 mark.  He has struggled in 2 of his last 4 starts against the Dodgers and LA bounces back at the plate here after Friday's loss.  ORIGINAL analysis: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 3 start. Keep in mind, Sxherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Dallas. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers will be hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and I expect they will do just that against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Hyun-Jin Ryu to struggle! On the road this season, Ryu was hit 39 points higher than at home. Also, in night starts Ryu was hit 58 points higher than in day starts. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 5:07 ET - The total may seem a little high but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading that perception and going with the over in this one. The teams combined for 14 runs in yesterday's game and now a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle take to the mound Saturday. The Twins are making a very questionable decision in starting Randy Dobnak in this one. He is a rookie whom only has 5 MLB starts this season. Don't be surprised when the Yankees pound him. As for New York, they start Masahiro Tanaka and he got hit at a .301 clip in the month of July and a .314 clip in the month of September. The fact is that he has struggled often in the 2nd half of the season and I see no reason for expecting that to change here. In fact, Tanaka allowed a .508 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters this season and the Twins are loaded on that side of the plate. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 5 ET - Both wild card games remained under the total and, normally, when you think about post-season baseball, it is pitchers duels and unders that likely come to mind. However, Game 1 of this NL playoff series is a contrarian situation. First off the total has risen from an 8 to a 9 but don't let that scare you away. It is with good reason. For one thing, the weather is going to be summer-like in Atlanta today with temperatures in the mid-90s at first pitch. For another thing, both these lineups are loaded with solid hitters. Thirdly, and most important of course, is this starting pitching match-up. The Braves Dallas Keuchel is certainly a "big name" pitcher but he did not impress me down the stretch run. After his very successful July, note that he got hit at a .279 clip in August and a .270 clip in September. Those are not dominating numbers by any stretch of the imagination. As for the Cardinals Miles Mikolas, his 2019 season was not nearly as strong as his 2018 season. Additionally, he is known for struggling on the road. Mikolas went 4-8 away from home this season. In his 17 road starts this season, Mikolas compiled a 5.40 ERA and opponents hit nearly .300 against him. Look for more road struggles here against a potent Braves lineup. At the same time, Keuchel's recent mediocrity continues. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:05 ET - No matter whom starts this game I like the over. We have a total of 7.5 and yet the Brewers bullpen had multiple late season collapses when it had a chance to catch the Cardinals for the NL Central title but failed to do so. As for the Nationals bullpen they had a 5.66 ERA in the regular season and that ranks them dead last - #30 out of 30 - on the season. Why are the bullpens so significant here? Neither team is likely to have starters that pitch deep into this game. The Brewers Brandon Woodruff is only recently back from an oblique injury and is likely to only go 2 or 3 innings. The Nationals Max Scherzer compiled a 5.16 ERA in the month of September and was not the same pitcher we saw in the first half of the season since he returned from injury. Now, I also know that in a "win or the season over" game we could see each team use additional starting pitchers here instead of turning to bullpen arms. However, keep in mind those guys are use to being starters not relievers and that is generally not an ideal situation for them to step into. That said, with the potency of each of these lineups, a low total of 7.5 runs, and summer-like weather in DC today, I see great value with the over in this match-up. Over their final 9 games of the season Milwaukee scored an average of 6 runs per game. Over their final 8 games of the season (an 8-0 run for Washington) the Nationals scored an average of 6.8 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:10 ET - The White Sox are going with a bullpen game today so really I do not care who starts in this game. That said, this will be a play for me even if there ends up being a change to the starting pitchers. Why? Because the White Sox bullpen isn't great so a bullpen game certainly is not overly appealing for them! As for the Tigers, their bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. That could be an issue here as Spencer Turnbull is the projected starter here and he is 3-16 with a 4.59 ERA this season. He also is 0-10 with a 5.23 ERA in his day game appearances this season! Last season, Turnbull went 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in day games in his rookie season. Suffice to say Turnbull does not appear to be a "morning person" and we'll take advantage here. As for Ross Detwiler, no sense getting too long-winded about him here as, again, this is a bullpen game for the White Sox but I will say this...the Chicago left-hander is winless with a 9.15 ERA in his 6 day game appearances (3 starts) this season. Detwiler has been hit at a .387 clip in afternoon action this year. More of the same here and, after both games stayed just under the total yesterday, I love coming right back with the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - It is one of those "unwritten rules of the game" but the fact is Colorado should field their best lineup tonight. That's because, though their season is over, this game tonight means plenty to the Brewers (and the Cardinals team they are chasing for the NL Central title). That being said, I expect a solid Rockies lineup here and this is a team known for putting up huge numbers at home. The fact that Milwaukee's Zach Davies is getting hit at a .272 clip on the road this season and also has never pitched at Coors Field in his career bodes well for the Colorado sticks here. The issue for the Rockies it their own pitching here. Antonio Senzatela has only had 1 good start since the All Star break. Truly the odds favor him struggling here as he has an 11.54 ERA since July 1st! That is a span of 9 starts and 8 of the 9 have been quite ugly. Behind Senzatela is a Rockies bullpen whose struggles continued yesterday and, as per usual, the Colorado pen has particularly struggled in home games this season. The Brewers pen also has been a little shaky of late (but managed to work out of some dicey situations). Getting out of jams at Coors Field is tougher though and I look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. I am well aware the the wind is likely to be blowing in this evening at Coors Field. The odds makers were also aware and yet they opened this total at a 14 and it is now down to a 13. Even with a north wind expected this evening in Denver temperatures will be mild, the air is dry, and the ball comes off like a rocket off the bats of the hitters. Fade the market move here and expect a slugfest at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 22 runs. What you're seeing in this match-up is a pair of teams that are both very relaxed at the plate and are enjoying a very hitter-friendly environment at Globe Life Park in Arlington. It is still summer weather right now in Texas and this ballpark is known for being kind to the hitters especially when weather conditions are like this with high temperatures topping out near 100 degrees today. Of course no playoff pressure on either team so the hitters are very loose and relaxed at the plate. We should see another slugfest today. The Rangers, when at home, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs per game. The Red Sox, when on the road, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs scored. Additionally, this starting pitching match-up features two hurlers whom are likely to get rocked. Boston goes with Rick Porcello. The veteran right-hander is struggling again for the 3rd month out of the last 4. He had a respectable August but Porcello has been rocked hard in June, July, and now September as well. His ERA for those 3 months are 6.46, 7.94, and 6.63, respectively. As for the Rangers Kolby Allard, the young southpaw is finding out just how tough it is when you pitch for a team that has a hitter-friendly home park. Allard has been strong on the road this season but, in his 3 home starts he has a 7.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .333 against him. Keep in mind, Allard also got crushed in 3 appearances (1 start) for the Braves last season. Look for the slugging we saw in yesterday's game to carry over right into today's game as both bullpens got a little roughed up yesterday too and each could be called upon far too early in this one given the above. 10* OVER the total in Texas

NOTE: This is still a play for me although Thomas Pannone is now the starter for the Blue Jays. The Toronto southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen but struggled as a starter this season. In his his 6 starts this season, Pannone is 0-4 with a 10.65 ERA. Here is the ORIGINAL write-up: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Last night's game saw 20 runs scored and went 15 innings. These two bullpens are a bit "tapped out" after that lengthy slugfest in the series opener. That said, I like the over in this match-up as there is a decent chance each of these starters gets knocked out early. Dylan Bundy has enjoyed some recent success against the Blue Jays but only one of those starts was at Toronto. Prior to that successful start at Rogers Centre this season, note that Bundy allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two starts in Toronto in 2018. Overall, in his last 3 starts north of the border, Bundy has allowed 7 homers and these 3 outings have seen him average just 5 innings per game. Look for the Blue Jays sticks to remain hot at the plate and Toronto will likely need every bit of that offense tonight. That's because Anthony Kay gets the start for the Jays here. The young southpaw enjoyed some surprising success in AAA after coming over from the Mets. However, lets not forget that he had a 6.61 ERA in his 7 starts with New York's AAA affiliate this season. Also, the southpaw has a 5.79 ERA so far in his 3 appearances (2 starts) at the AAA level. There have been ZERO unders in the last 6 meetings between these teams. All 6 of those games have totaled at least 10 runs and the total on this one is currently a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The last 6 meetings have totaled an average of 14.7 runs per game. More of the same here, especially with a pair of fatigued bullpens involved here. Remember too that the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last among American League bullpens. Both lineups have been swinging the sticks quite well the last two weeks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Blake Snell has great numbers for the Rays but is still limited with his pitch count as he returns from injury. He is unlikely to work more than 3 or 4 innings here and the Red Sox lineup is very familiar with, and has enjoyed some solid success against, the Tampa Bay bullpen. Boston's issue here is going to be their own pitching. Jhoulys Chacin gets the start and he is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) since the All Star break. Also, the Red Sox right-hander has struggled on the road all season. In 11 starts he is 1-9 with a 6.85 ERA. Opponents are hitting .304 against Chacin in his road starts. Also, in his two most recent starts coming to the Red Sox from the Brewers, the right-hander has had to exit early due to running into trouble very early in his starts. That is significant because the Red Sox bullpen certainly is not what it once was. This season it has ranked only as an "average" bullpen based on team ERA on the year. In 2017 they were one of the best but they regressed some in 2018, and now this season they have dropped off even a little further. We'll take advantage here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Day Game Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - Both the Reds Anthony DeSclafani and Mets Zach Wheeler come into this game pitching very well. So why the relatively big number posted on a National League match-up with playoff implications (for New York)? Exactly! Don't let the rather big number scare you away here. It is a warm afternoon more like late summer than early fall in Cincinnati. In day games with weather conditions like the ball jumps off bats at Great American Ball Park and that is precisely what I am expecting here. Also, DeSclafani has a 4.78 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season. Wheeler has a 5.05 ERA in his 13 afternoon game starts his season. Both pitchers have performed better at night compared to day game action this season. Also, Wheeler gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against the Reds this season. As for DeSclafani, lefties have a .485 slugging percentage against him this season and the Mets are loaded on that side of the plate. As for the bullpens, the Reds pen imploded last night and that continued their late season trend. As for the Mets pen, it ranks as one of the worst in the majors and was also a bit shaky again last night. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 which has a lot to do with Charlie Morton's long-term reputation. However, the key word there is long-term because Morton has not been the same pitcher since the All Star break. The last time he faced the Red Sox was in late July and Morton allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Morton has been far from dominant since mid-July as he has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 outings. In 4 of the 7 Morton allowed 4 earned runs or more. As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, it has been a forgettable season. The right-hander has a 5.77 ERA in his 30 starts and it is truly amazing that he is 13-12 on the season given those numbers. Porcello is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Rays and has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work spanning those two outings. In his last two starts against American League foes, Porcello has allowed 6 earned runs in each of the two outings even though he lasted only 4 innings in each start. More the same on tap here. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Boston's last 3 games. The over is also 3-0 in the Rays last 3 games. After 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, the Red Sox over is 7-2 this season. After allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games, the Rays over is 7-3 this season. Also, the Boston bullpen has been every shaky lately. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - The calendar says we're in the latter half of September, but the weather right now in Minneapolis is more like summer weather by Minnesota standards. I look for both these starting pitchers to get rocked and we've got some value with this total because it has moved down from an opener of 10.5 to now 10 runs as of very early game day morning. With both teams off low-scoring losses yesterday I am not surprised to see this game total currently painted as a 10 across the board. However, this pitching match-up is going to bring the bats quickly back to life for both ball clubs. The Twins Kyle Gibson has a 7.59 ERA in his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has been getting hit at a .302 clip since the All Star break. Gibson has definitely proven to be on a second half fade this season. As for the Royals Mike Montgomery, his home/road dichotomy is very strong. On the season he has impressive ERA numbers in home appearances but in his 17 road appearances (5 starts) Montgomery is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA. It is no fluke either as opponents are hitting .375 against the Royals southpaw when he is away from home! It is easy to see why I am expecting runs early and often on a mild evening with light south winds at Target Field Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tim Melville is 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his 11 MLB appearances (8 starts) and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He has made 5 starts with Colorado this season and, like most pitchers, he is finding out what a nightmare it is to pitch at Coors Field. Melville has a 9.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. The Mets are starting Marcus Stroman here. The right-hander had pitched his entire career with the Blue Jays in the American League prior to coming to the Mets and facing National League competition on a regular basis. Perhaps he should have stayed in the AL! Since coming to the NL, Stroman has been hit at a .301 clip! That being said, he is actually fortunate that his ERA is not higher than the 4.50 that he has recorded so far with New York. The Mets right-hander also faces a stiff challenge here because the Rockies continue to pile up runs at home. Colorado has won 4 straight home games and they have scored no less than 9 runs in each game. The Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game during this 4-game win streak and should remain red hot here on a mild evening at Coors Field with possibly favorable wind direction as well. The Mets, even with scoring just 4 runs in yesterday's loss, have averaged 7.4 runs per game their past 8 road games. The Mets bullpen has a 5.43 ERA in road games this season. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.88 ERA in home games this season. As you can see, after last night's over was a painful loss for bettors (Game was 7-4 through 4 innings), there are plenty of edge factors that point toward tonight's match-up flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres @ 7:40 ET - Garrett Richards gets the start for the Padres. He is making his long-awaited San Diego debut as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Richards went 0-1 with a 10.61 ERA in his 5 starts in the minors this season. Now he faces a Brewers team that is riding high. Even without the injured Christian Yelich, Milwaukee continues to pile up runs and win games and I expect them to enjoy success as Richards will struggle to get back into a groove as he makes his first MLB start since July of last year! The Brewers start Zach Davies here and he has faded in the 2nd half of this season. Davies is 2-5 with a 5.14 ERA in his 10 starts since the All Star break. Also, Davies got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his start at San Diego in June. Look for the Padres, extra confidence at the plate after their weekend series at Coors Field, to get to Davies early and often in this one. With that said, and with this total dropping from an early opener of 9.5 down to a 9, I like the value here in a game where I expect plenty of struggles for each starting pitcher. San Diego has scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 6 games. Milwaukee has been shutout once in their past 10 games but in the other 9 games the Brewers scored an average of 6 runs per game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - With their big win yesterday the Braves remain red hot, including at the plate. That said, I don't see the Atlanta sticks slowing down here either. They face Anibal Sanchez in Washington. The Nationals right-hander had a good first start this season against the Braves. However, he has struggled worse and worse in each of his next three starts against Atlanta. The Braves have gotten to Sanchez for 11 earned runs in 16 innings over the past 3 starts. Sanchez has allowed a 2.00 WHIP in his last 2 starts against Atlanta as he has allowed 16 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings. Max Fried gets the start for the Braves here and he is 8-2 on the road this season but with a 4.71 ERA. Also, in his 6 day game outings (5 starts) opponents are hitting .331 against him. The Nationals are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and first time hosting Fried in DC. The Nats did give him trouble in 1 of the 2 starts this season and, based on his road struggles, this is likely to be another ugly outing for Fried here. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 road starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 3:05 ET - Yesterday's game went 12 innings which used some extra bullpen. The Blue Jays Jacob Waguespack struggled against the Yankees when he faced them earlier this season. The Yankees James Paxton has struggled against the Blue Jays in both his starts against them this season. The Yankees are still motivated here as they are locked in a battle with the Astros for the home field edge in the upcoming playoffs. Toronto is still motivated here too, as they proved last night, because even though they are out of the playoff picture they are hosting a division rival for whom they have great disdain. That said, look for another high-scoring game here and we get good line value since Paxton has good numbers on the season and that is helping to keep this total under the 10 mark (as of very early Saturday morning). The over is 16-5 this season when the Yankees are priced as a road favorite of -175 or more. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 this season in Paxton's starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays over is 2-1 in Waguespack's last 3 starts as he has been roughed to the tune of an 8.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The wind is expecting to be blowing out to center when this game first gets started. It is then expected to shift more toward a westerly direction which will have it blowing out toward right field for the remainder of the game. It will be a rather strong wind and is certain to help the hitters in this one. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs in this one and he has good numbers against the Pirates this season. However, in a hitter-friendly environment and an afternoon game at Wrigley Field, I look for Lester to get lit up. Keep in mind, after a strong July, Lester has been fading ever since as he has a 6.91 ERA in his last 8 starts. Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates and one thing I want to mention before getting into his pitching stats is that he is also a threat with his bat. Brault is hitting .314 on the season! Though he is 4-0 in his road starts this season, Brault is getting hit at a .280 clip away from home. Also, the Pirates lefty allowed 4 earned runs in 3 innings in his lone start at Wrigley Field this season. Brault entered this season with a 5.87 ERA in his 7 career outings (2 starts) at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have hit over .300 against him in his career. The over is 12-5-2 in the Pirates last 19 games. The over is 25-11 in Pittsburgh's games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this one had a 13.5 as the total and it is now down to a 12.5 as of very early Thursday morning. This is not a surprise given the past two games have both been extremely low-scoring but I am taking advantage of the value here. This is an afternoon game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the air is particularly dry here for this one and the ball is going to be jumping off bats. That said, the key is whether or not we can expect a lot of contact and, with these two pitchers on the mound, I say absolutely! Miles Mikolas is 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in his road starts this season and teams are hitting .301 against him in his 15 away starts. Tim Melville has pitched in only 10 MLB games (7 starts) in his career but he has a 6.82 ERA and has been hit at over a .300 clip in those outings. That said, it comes at no surprise that he has struggled in his limited action at Coors Field this season too. More of the same expected here. This game will play out nothing like the past two games. The teams combined to go 1 for 17 with runners in scoring position last night and they left 18 men on base. I love coming back with an over after a game like that as it is a situation that has worked out well for me through the years particularly when the pitching match-up is conducive to a slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado 

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - After yesterday's very rare pitchers duel at Colorado, look for a normal slugfest at Coors Field tonight. The Rockies are sending Antonio Senzatela to the mound and he has a ridiculous 16.55 ERA in his last 6 starts. Also, he entered this season with a 5.04 ERA in home outings in his first two seasons with the Rockies. This season he has struggled whether home or away as he has an ERA above 7.16 both at and away from Coors Field. The Cardinals will get to him early and often in this one! As for St Louis starter Dakota Hudson, he has been in great current form. One of the few places that can completely take a pitcher out of rhythm however is pitching at Coors Field. Also, he does have a 4.01 ERA on the road this season and Hudson compiled a 5.54 ERA away from home last season. In other words, he has been much stronger at home than on the road thusfar in his career. In his lone appearance in Denver, Hudson allowed 3 earned runs in just a third of an inning. He'll be tested again early in this one and the bats come back to life for both these teams today after yesterday's rare result. Keep in mind, prior to yesterday's loss the Cards had won 23 of their past 30 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in those 23 victories! The Rockies are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and will bounce back at the plate here. Prior to yesterday's truly unusual result, the over was 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these teams. That normal trending resumes here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Jason Vargas has been crushed by the Braves 3 of the last 5 times he has faced them. That includes this season too when Vargas couldn't even get out of the first inning. Likewise, Atlanta's Max Fried has had issues when facing the Phillies. He has made two starts against Philadelphia this season and has allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings of work. The long ball has hurt Fried when facing the Phillies as he has given up 4 homers in those 10 innings. These are two very potent lineups and I look for Philadelphia to respond at home after getting blown out 7-2 last night. However, I don't trust Vargas against this potent Braves lineup and that is why my play here is the over rather than the Phillies as a home dog. Lets not forget the Phillies bullpen has been shaky too this season. Philadelphia's pen ranks in the bottom of the third in the majors based on ERA and the Atlanta bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack. In other words, look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. With yesterday's push, the over is now 9-3-1 in the 13 games between these teams this season. Look for today's to "push" too...right over the total that is! Just too many big sticks in both of these lineups and each team has a number of hitters that have given these starting pitchers - and the bullpen arms too - a lot of trouble this season. The over is 14-7 this season when the Braves are a road favorite of -125 or more. The over is 5-2 this season when the Phillies are a home underdog of +125 or more. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - 15 runs were scored in yesterday's game and I fully expect another wild one on Monday. Although Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well this season, he has struggled against the Yankees. Rodriguez should have a very high ERA against New York this season but he has been fortunate to work out of some major jams. He won't be so fortunate here because, when a pitcher has allowed 29 baserunners in just 17 and 2/3 innings, it eventually catches up with him! Rodriguez has had trouble consistently retiring Yankees hitters this season. As for New York starter James Paxton, he enters this start on a very strong run over his past seven starts. However, the southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his lone start at Fenway Park. Back in July Paxton got rocked in Boston and, though he struck out 9, he also allowed 4 homers in just 4 innings in that rough outing. I expect another slugfest tonight at Fenway Park with the wind possibly also aiding the cause as it will likely be directed toward left field for this one. That said, plenty of right-handed power in each lineup teeing off against a pair of southpaw starters in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Both teams have shaky bullpens but we've seen this total drop from a 9 to an 8.5 because of the Bryce Harper situation. Though X-rays were negative he may not play today due to trouble gripping the bat after being nailed on the hand by a Steven Matz pitch last night. Keep in mind, the Phillies have plenty of other contributors in the lineup other than just Harper. That said, I love the over in this spot because Philadelphia just faced Marcus Stroman last weekend and though he only allowed 2 earned runs he did allowed 7 hits in 6 innings. Keep in mind August was his first month with the Mets and he got hit at a .301 clip last month. The point is that they adjustment to the National League has not gone well for Stroman and I expect the Phillies potent lineup to do some damage in this one. However, the issue for the Phillies is the fact that Drew Smyly is on the mound. He is 3-6 with a 6.65 ERA on the season and has been struggling in recent weeks for Philly. The southpaw has allowed 9 homers in his last 25.1 innings. The over is a perfect 4-0 in New York's last 4 games. Also, the Mets have won 5 of their past 7 games thanks in large part to great production from their lineup as they have scored an average of 7 runs per game their past 7 games. With this total dropping to an 8.5, a pair of sub-par bullpens, and two starting pitchers each struggling in many of their outings since changing teams, I look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Mets

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Twins managed just 2 runs yesterday in their win over the Red Sox. The Indians managed just 1 run yesterday in their loss to the White Sox. Both these teams, of course, have much more potent lineups than what yesterday's results showed. I love coming back with the over in a situation like this as both teams return to normal "pounding of the ball" the very next day. The Twins are a very potent team when at home. In fact, 15 of their past 20 games have gone over the total when they are in Minneapolis. As for the Indians, the over was on a 5-0 run in their games prior to yesterday's disappointing home loss to the White Sox. I fully expect the Indians bats to get back on track here. I know Michael Pineda has good numbers for the Twins but he has struggled in his past two home starts. Also, he recently has faced a number of light-hitting teams. He is going to face a much bigger challenge here so don't let the big number (currently 10.5) on this total concern you. As for Adam Plutko, the Indians right-hander got rocked at Target Field last month. Also, he has been hit 68 points higher in road games than home games this season and 94 points higher in night games compared to day games. On the road for this one and under the lights in Minnesota, look for Plutko's struggles to continue. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up as high as a 12.5 and of course the betting markets are saying how "wrong" the odds makers are and the total has been pounded down to an 11.5 as of very early Thursday morning. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about this and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here and going with the over. I lost with this play last night in large part because the Twins left 10 men on base, hit into 3 double plays, and went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. I look for Minnesota to make up for that Thursday. I know Nathan Eovaldi is off a strong start but I am not going to put too much stock into just one start. The Red Sox right-hander has been pounded at a .323 clip and compiled an 8.44 ERA in his 9 games (2 starts) at Fenway Park this season. As for the Twins starter, Martin Perez, he has been on the fade for quite awhile now. He is 2-5 in his last 16 starts and Perez has compiled a 6.24 ERA in these 16 starts. That doesn't bode well for the lefty now facing a potent Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 starts Perez has made. The over is 35-16 this season when the Red Sox are a favorite in a price range of -100 to -150. This game falls within that range as of early Thursday morning. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total has been as high as a 11.5 and, of course, looks too high to the casual observer. However, this game has slugfest written all over it and is painted a solid 11 across the board as of early Wednesday morning. I am going with a strong play on the over. Jose Berrios still carries plenty of "name recognition" for the Twins but he has been having mechanical issues and, as of late, is not the "Berrios" that we're use to seeing! Berrios compiled a 7.57 ERA and got rocked at a .333 clip in the month of August. Facing a potent Red Sox lineup at Fenway Park on an evening when the wind is expected to be blowing out is not a good situation for the Twins right-hander to try to right himself. Speaking of pitchers likely to struggle, enter Boston left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez into the equation here. Rodriguez had a 4.87 ERA as of late June. He then had an excellent July but his low ERA in the month of August is an aberration. I say that because the lefty was quite fortunate. Rodriguez was excellent against the Padres at hitter-friendly San Diego and against the downtrodden Orioles. However, in his other 4 August starts Rodriguez allowed 31 hits in 22 and 2/3 innings. Now he faces a potent Twins lineup that did get to him for 4 earned runs in 7 innings when they faced him in mid-June. Now they get a 2nd look at him and he'll be even more hittable in the "round two" match-up for this season. The Twins have a .530 slugging percentage against southpaws this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Red Sox have a .280 batting average against right-handed hurlers this season which ranks them #1 in the majors. You can see why I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this game with great slugfest potential Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Jordan Lyles has pitched surprisingly well since coming over to the Brewers from the Pirates. However, Lyles has been hit quite hard in 2 of his last 3 starts (13 hits in 9.1 innings in those two outings) and I foresee the wheels coming off here. That's because Lyles now faces a very potent Astros lineup and I expect a similar start to his outing against the Nationals in mid-August when he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings. The good news for Milwaukee fans is that they should see plenty of offensive production from the home team in this one as well. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Astros and has struggled in his two most recent outings...particularly compared to his standards. Greinke has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits in 12.1 innings. After yesterday's 3-2 game that was a pitchers duel, look for both lineups to explode today. The Astros are one of the top slugging teams (3rd out of 30) in the majors when on the road. The Brewers have a respectable .450 slugging percentage in home games which ranks in the top half of the majors. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:15 ET - Opponents are hitting .295 against Adam Wainwright this month. Also, he has walked 9 in his last 3 home starts even though he has only averaged 5 innings per start in those outings. The Giants enter this game having averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 road games. The Cardinals are coming off back to back double headers against the Reds as they had to play two both Saturday and Sunday. Of course that is not good for a bullpen. With Wainwright likely in line for another early exit that could spell trouble here. San Francisco also certainly has pitching concerns of their own here. The Giants start Tyler Beede and he has a 6.27 ERA and has been hit at a .298 clip this season. Look for the right-hander to get pounded here as he also has a 6.11 ERA and has been smashed at a .339 clip in day games this season. He'll get pounded here and Wainwright is not only struggling but also gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start against the Giants (a year ago). San Francisco, as a road underdog of +150 to +200, is 13-6 to the over this season. The Cardinals are 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games against the Giants. More of the same on tap here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:10 ET - Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh southpaw managed to survive his most recent outing (against the floundering Phillies) despite not having his best stuff. However, when you come to Coors Field on a summer afternoon with low humidity and light winds and you don't have your best stuff you are likely to get pounded. That is what I am expecting here as the Rockies hitters bounce back after managing only 4 runs yesterday. As for the Pirates hitters, they should absolutely stay red hot here. Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 9 games and a red hot lineup certainly has had something to do with that. In their past 6 wins, the Pirates have scored an average of 10 runs per game and there is certainly nothing average about that! They'll take advantage of facing Jeff Hoffman of Colorado in this one. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.31 ERA in his career and there has been no improvement this season. In his 9 starts this year Hoffman has gone 1-4 with a 7.81 ERA. In his career outings at Coors Field (he has thrown nearly 100 innings there), Hoffman has a 7.60 ERA. The way the Pirates are swinging the sticks this will be another tough outing for him here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 13 runs so it fell just short of going over the total. I like the value here with coming right back with the over after the Pirates stayed hot at the plate Friday but the Rockies scored just 4 runs. Colorado, on their home field, will bounce back today against Joe Musgrove. The Pirates right-hander is off a strong start but he is very inconsistent. He has been unable to string together back to back quality starts. As a result we have great value here with the over. The last 3 times Musgrove has allowed 2 or less earned runs in a start his next start has seen him allow a combined 18 earned runs in 13 and 1/3 innings. As for Tim Melville, the inexperienced right-hander has good numbers so far but his first start was on the road and was strong but he was very fortunate in his 2nd start. Melville did not pitch nearly as well as his 5 scoreless innings would lead you to believe. Keep in mind, this is still a pitcher that has a 6.41 ERA in his 8 games (5 starts) at the MLB level. The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their past 7 games. Pittsburgh will light Melville up but, at the same time, Musgrove gets rocked by a fired up Rockies team that is off back to back home losses to the Bucs. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:05 ET - Perfect situation here. Not only did the game yesterday stay under the total but the last time Marco Gonzales faced the Rangers he had a strong start against them but that was in Seattle. Also, Kolby Allard is off a strong start for Texas but that was his first solid outing in 4 starts this season. The point is we're now getting value here because the above factors are part of the reason the markets moved this total down from an 11 to a 10.5 even though it should be going the other way. The Mariners Gonzales has allowed 24 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Unlike his home start against the Rangers, he'll get crushed now facing them in Texas where they are a different team at the plate. As for Allard, the former Brave got crushed for 7 runs (6 earned) in his lone home start this season and he also walked 6 in 10 innings in his two starts prior to that ugly outing against the Angels. In other words, he has had one good start but now the markets think he has "found his way" after finally having a good start. I completely disagree and am forecasting that the Mariners get to him early and often in this one. The over is 13-5 this season when Seattle is on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. The over is 3-1 in the 4 career starts Gonzales has made in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - With this total set at a 14 it may scare away over players. However, as one digs deeper into this match-up, the fact is that 20 runs tonight would not be a surprise. The Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA this season. He walked 6 in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also, he has allowed 8 homers in his last 26 innings on the mound. Of course too many walks and too many homers is a dangerous combo and Gonzalez is likely to struggle again tonight on a hot late summer night in Colorado. The Pirates counter with Trevor Williams. The Pittsburgh right-hander got off to a decent start since this season with a respectable spring. However, it has been all downhill in the summer months for Williams. He has a 7.21 ERA since June 1st and pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters! Behind Williams is a Pirates bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in baseball. As for the Rockies bullpen, they have struggled at home (6.00 ERA) as you would expect. The over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last 7 road games. The over is 38-22 when the Pirates money line is +125 to -125. The over is 11-3 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 starts made by Williams and this one, despite the high number posted, is destined to fly over the total as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Wednesday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been great in day games this season but his night games have seen him compile an ERA that is 2.5 runs higher! Is it a fluke? Absolutely not, his ERA was about 2 runs higher in night games in 2018 and about a run higher in 2017. In other words, we're getting some extra value here since there is no real shading given to the total for that factor but there absolutely should be. This is particularly true because Odorizzi has been "on the fade" for awhile too as he compiled a 7.43 ERA in his 5 July starts. In his past two August starts, the Twins right-hander has allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in less than 11 innings of work and his most recent outing was against the White Sox. Now they get a quick "second look" at him and this time they face him in Chicago which is a big edge for them. Certainly the White Sox are going to need all the runs they can get here as their own starter tonight is likely to get rocked. Ross Detwiler is off a solid start in his most recent outing but that is rare. In his prior two appearances the southpaw got hammered for 8 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work. Detwiler is getting hit at a .302 clip this season and this will be the fourth time since late June that he is facing the Twins. This is a big edge for the Minnesota lineup. In terms of the weather this evening, a west wind is expected and will be blowing out toward left field for this one. Even including last night's low-scoring win, Twins games are on a 23-11 run to the over. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Adam Plutko has great numbers at home this season but the road has been a different story. In his 7 appearances (6 starts) away from home this season, Plutko has a 4.93 ERA and opponents are hitting .296 against him. The Tigers Spencer Turnbull is 0-7 in his dozen home starts this season and he also is fading as the season goes on. In his 6 starts since the All Star break, Turnbull is 0-4 with a 6.58 ERA. The over is 3-0 in Plutko's 3 career starts against the Tigers and the Indians have provided him with plenty of run support (average of 11 runs per game) in those 3 outings. Detroit's bullpen has a 5.02 ERA to rank among the worst in the majors and they could be called upon early in this one. Not only is Turnbull struggling, the Tigers are also concerned about his total innings on the year compared to what he has amassed in past seasons. That said, look for runs early often and throughout this one! Detroit is 25-12 to the over (including 11-3 this season) when they enter a game after 7 or more consecutive road games. The Tigers are in that situation here as they enter this series off a long road trip. Detroit was off yesterday and now the Tigers over moves to 5-0 in their last 5 games as their match-up with Cleveland should be a slug-fest on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 8:15 ET - After opening up at a 10, this total has fallen to a 9 as of very early Monday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and going with the over in this match-up. Homer Bailey is going against his former team as he was with the Royals earlier this season. Sure he'll be highly motivated here as a result but don't be surprised if he struggles. Bailey has never been known as a pitcher that excels in pressure situations and he'll be putting extra pressure on himself to try and perform well here since he is facing his former team. Bailey's most recent road start but was a beauty but those are rare gems indeed. In fact, Bailey's 3 prior road starts saw him allow 21 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals here. The KC right-hander is off a strong start (albeit against the miserable Orioles) but did compile a 6.00 ERA over his two preceding starts. Also, Keller is facing an A's team that has scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in its past 10 games. The Royals had not been hitting well of late but, after exploding for 9 runs in a big upset win at Cleveland yesterday, KC brings some momentum into this home series with the A's. Kansas City is looking to continue to play the role of spoiler as they face another team, just like the Indians, that is in the battle for a wild card spot in the playoff race. The over is 20-12 this season when the A's are a favorite of -150 or more. The Royals, at home when the total is 10 to 10.5, are 13-3 to the over this season. Again, 10 was the opening number on this total but, of course, I like this spot even more now that the total has dropped to a 9. Lets not forget the Royals bullpen is also a weakness. There are some storms expected in the KC area late this afternoon and early this evening but those should push through prior to game time for this one. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - The Red Sox possess a very potent lineup. Though they haven't seen Joey Lucchesi they are fully capable of enjoying success against him right out of the gate. Boston, off a 5-4 win yesterday, has averaged 6.7 runs per game their past 13 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs so far in this series but did manage 4 in yesterday's loss. However, San Diego did enter this series having averaged 6 runs per game in their past 11 games. Look for the Padres to resume that type of success in this game as they take advantage of facing Boston's Brian Johnson. The Red Sox southpaw has a 6.58 ERA this season in his 11 appearances (6 starts) and Johnson has been absolutely rocked as opponents are hitting .353 against him on the year. This will open up the floodgates early for the Padres lineup but look for the Red Sox lineup to match them run for run and turn this one into a surprising high-scoring game at Petco Park. The over is 10-1-1 in the Padres last dozen home games. The over is 13-6 this season when Boston enters a game having won 6 or 7 of their past 8 games. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees CC Sabathia is 1-5 with a 6.95 ERA in his 9 road starts this season. After getting destroyed 10-2 yesterday, the Dodgers will be ready to respond today and they'll take it out on Sabathia this afternoon. The issue for LA however will be their starter Tony Gonsolin. The rookie right-hander barely survived his 4-inning outing versus the Braves as he lasted only 4 innings and gave up 5 hits to the Braves but managed to get around the traffic. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen games. The Dodgers had won 13 of their past 17 games prior to yesterday's ugly loss. In those 17 games Los Angeles has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game. The over is 6-2 this season when the Dodgers enter a game after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games. Also, the over is 6-3 in LA games versus AL East opponents this season. The over is 17-8 in Yankees games when they are an underdog. Also, the over is 13-6 this season when New York enters a game after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. A lot of potency in both of these lineups and I feel neither starting pitcher can be trusted. 10* OVER the total Los Angeles Dodgers

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Zach Plesac has struggled in back to back starts. The Royals are facing him for the 4th time since July 4th so they have plenty of familiarity with him. Speaking of familiarity, the Indians are facing Jakob Junis for the 6th time already this season! Junis has gone 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA against the Tribe and they are hitting .304 against him. Suffice to say, this is not a good match-up for the Royals right-hander. After getting shutout by a quality pitcher last night, Cleveland will respond by taking out their frustration on a Kansas City pitcher they have dominated in recent meetings. In fact, the Indians have gotten to Junis for 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 5 starts against them this season! We've got a very manageable total (9 runs) to work with here and behind Junis is a Royals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. The over is 4-2 in Junis last 6 starts against the Indians. The over is 2-1 in the 3 career starts Plesac has made against the Royals. The last two games of the Indians series with the Mets resulted in unders but the over had been on a 7-2 run in Cleveland games prior to that. In terms of looking for overs I like looking for games where a home team pitcher has been struggling. Plesac's struggles likely to continue here and, at he same time, you know the Indians are highly likely to continue pounding Junis as they have throughout this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - I got burned yesterday with the Orioles over as it was 8-1 through 6 innings but did not go over the total. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in Baltimore today but this time the Orioles are hosting Tampa Bay. The Rays are known for having a strong bullpen but they have not fared well of late. That is part of the reason the over is now 4-0 in Tampa's last 4 games. I look for this over streak to continue here. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough is off back to back strong starts but his prior two outings were against teams that have faced him often this season (Toronto and Boston) and Yarbrough struggled in those appearances. Now he faces an Orioles team that also will be seeing him for the 3rd time this season. Additionally, I like the way that Baltimore has been swinging the bats of late as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their past 4 games. They'll enjoy some success against Yarbrough and a Rays pen that is having some struggles of late. As for the Orioles pen, their 6.10 ERA is the worst in the majors and that could be an issue here as Asher Wojciechowski gets the start for Baltimore. The Orioles right-hander has a great July but reality has set in now that August has arrived. This month he has a 1.74 WHIP as he has struggled at times with command. Also, when Wojciechowski has found the plate he has given up some big hits. He has allowed 7 homers in his 19 innings this month. The right-hander also will be facing the Rays for 3rd time (2nd start) this season so they have some familiarity with him. Look for the struggles of Wojciechowski to continue here while the Rays continue to allow a surprising amount of runs as well (7.3 per game last 3 games). 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - On the one hand, these are two of the worst hitting teams in MLB and each of the first two games of this series have remained under the total. However, on the other hand, these are two of the worst bullpens in MLB and that becomes a factor when two starting pitchers - each likely to struggle - are taking the mound. The Royals start Mike Montgomery. The KC southpaw, in 15 appearances (3 starts) on the road this season, has compiled a 1-3 record with a 7.16 ERA. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .353 against Montgomery in his 15 outings away from home this season. As for the Orioles starter, a struggling Aaron Brooks gets the start in this one. Since coming over from Oakland, Brooks' experience in Baltimore has been nothing short of a disaster. The Orioles right-hander is 0-4 with a 9.22 ERA in his 7 starts and opponents are hitting .345 against him! Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, the last 7 games between these teams had totaled an average of 12.3 runs per contest. I see every reason to believe this one gets to at least a dozen runs as well. That said, I also like the added value here as the very first numbers that popped up on this one had the total at an 11 but the market makers quickly moved the total down to a 10.5 and I am grabbing the additional value. The last 23 times that the Royals have been a road favorite of -110 or more, only 7 of the 23 (30%) resulted in an under. Prior this series, the over was on a 16-5-2 run in Orioles games! Look for things to return to "normal" Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - No team had more hits (15) than the Twins last night and yet Minnesota scored only 4 runs. It was a result of some double plays and some wasted opportunities as the Twins left 10 men on base. To put this in proper perspective, the Nationals also had 15 hits last night and they scored 13 runs. The Rangers had 14 hits lead to 8 runs and the Angels had 13 hits lead to 7 runs. The fact is that crazy results happen sometimes and now I look for the Twins bats to stay hot tonight but this time the runs are commensurate with the hits. Minnesota will take advantage of facing Reynaldo Lopez. The White Sox right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings at Anaheim in his most recent start. He has a 5.57 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Lopez away from home. Also, he got rocked for 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his lone appearance against Minnesota earlier this season. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda here. I am well aware that he has been solid this season but he is still recovering from a triceps strain. In his first start back he tired early and started to get hit harder. Also, the White Sox will be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of less than 2 months. Familiarity for hitters with a pitcher in a short period of time generally leads to more success with each successive start. Pineda has been hit at a .270 clip in night games this season and it is no fluke as he has been hit at clips of .290, .273, .288 in night games his 3 prior seasons. He is much better in day action. The first total that popped up on this game was over 10 -120 and now the total is available at 9.5 and plus money on the over. This is a great value in a game which should see the hitters enjoying plenty of success. Also, 2 righties on the mounds means some extra left-handed lumber at the plate and the wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field tonight. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles gave up 13 runs in yesterday's game and have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Royals gave up 11 runs in yesterday's game and their bullpen is not much better that Baltimore's. The KC bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors for opponents batting average as well as team ERA. The O's did put 7 runs on the board yesterday and Kansas City did score 5 runs. That said, I look for a lot of offense again today considering the above as well as the starting pitching match-up in this one. Baltimore is starting John Means and he has allowed 13 earned runs in just 10 and 2/3 innings spanning his past 3 starts. The Orioles southpaw was unable to make it out of the 4th inning in any of those starts. That said, the horrible Baltimore bullpen could be called upon early in this one. The Royals bullpen also could enter the Monday game early as well. Kansas City is starting Jorge Lopez and the right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.82 ERA on the season. He has been particularly poor as a starter. In the starting role this season Lopez is 0-6 with a 7.59 ERA in his 11 starts this season. Only 3 of his 11 starts this season have resulted in an under. Speaking of trending toward higher scoring games, the over is 7-1 in the last 8 starts Means has made. You can see why I am fully expecting a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 3:10 ET - Hot afternoon at hitter-friendly Coors Field Sunday. Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and this afternoon's match-up should match that at a bare minimum. Note that the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto is 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts. Fellow rookie, Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert has struggled all season and this has been particularly true in his day game outings. Colorado's Lambert has made 5 day game starts and he has been hit at a .340 clip in this outings while compiling a 9.00 ERA. The Marlins have had just 2 unders in their past 17 games. Since July 31st, Miami is 12-2-3 to the over. The Marlins beleaguered bullpen continues to struggle and they're likely to be called upon early in this one considering the recent struggles of Yamamoto. As for the Rockies, they have one of the worst home bullpen ERA marks in the majors. Lambert averages only 5 innings per start so the Colorado bullpen will have plenty of bearing on the outcome of this total as well. Rockies games have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games. The over is 12-2 this season when the Rockies are a home favorite of -150 or more. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the Red Sox scoring 8 runs. Look for another big game from the Boston bats Saturday but the difference in this one will be the fact that Baltimore will join the party! The Orioles should enjoy success against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez. Although the Red Sox southpaw has enjoyed success against Baltimore this season, this will be the 3rd time that the Orioles are seeing him and I expect the 3rd time to be the charm. Why would that be? Well, the fact is that Rodriguez is having a rough August. He has been hit at a .310 clip this month and has a 5.60 ERA while walking a dozen in just 3 starts. Another struggling hurler in this one is Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his 3 starts this month. Also, he has allowed 2 homers per outing this month and also has walked 3 batters in each of his 3 starts! Though he shut down the Red Sox in his first start this season, he is not in good current form and now faces a powerful Boston team in the venue where they thrive - Fenway Park. As for the Orioles hitters, prior to yesterday's poor effort, the team had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore had scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games prior to being held to 1 run yesterday. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 30 home games. The over is 21-9 in those 30 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend resuming here after yesterday's rare under. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.09 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-3-2 in Baltimore's last 17 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 3 unders in their last 17 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles start former A's pitcher Aaron Brooks in this one. Since coming to Baltimore from Oakland, Brooks is 0-3 with a 9.41 ERA in his 6 starts. Brooks got absolutely throttled by the Astros in his most recent start. The Orioles right-hander will be opposed by another struggling right-hander in this one. Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston in this one. The Red Sox right-hander, since the All-Star Break, has been hit at a .297 clip while compiling a 6.97 ERA in his 6 starts. Porcello has allowed 13 homers in just 39 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 8 starts. When you're allowing an average of 1 homer every 3 innings plus getting hit at a .300 clip, it does not take long to find yourself in trouble. Porcello is facing an Orioles team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore has scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 29 home games. The over is 21-8 in those 29 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend continuing here. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.04 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-2-2 in Baltimore's last 16 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 2 unders in their last 16 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

UPDATE: The Twins are now expected to use Michael Pineda as a starter in this one. The right-hander is coming off the injury list (Triceps) and will make his first start in two weeks. He is 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in his career starts against Texas. I like this total whether Pineda or Smeltzer gets the start.  Pineda entered this season with a 5.16 ERA and a .287 batting average in road games since the start of the 2016 season. He is known for struggling more on the road and he is getting hit 20 points higher this season on the road compared to at home. Also, Pineda's road starts this summer (since June 1st) have all come against bad teams or weak-hitting teams. Facing the Rangers at Texas is going to be the toughest challenge he has faced in a long time. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Pineda or Smeltzer is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers got their sticks going in a 7-3 win at Toronto early yesterday afternoon. Now Texas is back home where they generally thrive at the plate. I know this is a big total we're working with here but this game has "slug fest" written all "over" it. The Twins Devin Smeltzer is coming off of a start where he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. That was at home. Note that in the rookie's only road start this season he also got rocked as Smeltzer allowed 5 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Minnesota left-hander allowed 4 homers in that start! Again, slug fest is expected here for a number of reasons as you can see and here is another one: Pedro Payano is starting for the Rangers. Like Smeltzer, he is also a rookie. Payano's ERA makes it look like he is adjusting to MLB opposition better than he truly is. Pavano's 3.86 ERA belies the fact that he has a 1.71 WHIP! That WHIP means for every 3 innings he pitches he allows 5 baserunners! Eventually that will catch up with him and he is facing a dangerous Twins lineup here. Minnesota has a .514 slugging percentage in road games this season. That ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Texas has a solid .472 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of the majors! The Rangers will get their runs at home in this one but Payano is likely to get rocked. Also, the Texas bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Payano has nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Smeltzer makes just the 2nd road start of his career. It will be a hot and steamy night in Arlington and this park is known as a hitters paradise when conditions are like this. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - The first game in this series got to 14 runs (the posted total in most spots on Monday) by the top of the 7th inning but then the run-scoring died out. Then the second of this series had a great early start with plenty of runs from Arizona but Colorado left 12 men on base for the game and went 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position. That is how you can have a series so far that has miraculously seen neither of the first two games go over the closing number even though BOTH should have. As a result, I have no hesitation in stepping in here and pounding the over in the 3rd and final game of this series. It will be a hot afternoon at Coors Field and the ball will carry even better than usual given the conditions. As for the pitching match-up, Kyle Freeland is 3-10 with a 7.06 ERA on the season. That is part of the reason he was sent to the minors during the season as well. That move really hasn't change anything however. Freeland has gone 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA since his return from the minors. As for Robbie Ray, he has found Coors Field to be a nightmare of sorts in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2016 season, Ray has allowed 23 runs (15 earned) in 24 and 2/3 innings. Yes that means the Rockies score about a run for every inning they have faced Ray in his last 4 starts at Coors Field. Overall, from 2016 to 2018 Ray compiled a 7.19 ERA in his 9 starts against the Rockies. The Dbacks bullpen has a 4.44 ERA on the road this season and the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA in home games this season. Arizona has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 road games at Coors Field and you know what the Rockies are capable of here. Look for this one to finally be the slugfest that does NOT stop on Wednesday! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

UPDATE: The Blue Jays are now expected to use Wilmer Font in this one as a starter. However, he most likely will just be used as an "opener" so Thomas Pannone is likely to still have an impact on this game. Either way, note that Font has a 6.89 ERA in his 9 night game appearances this season. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Font or Pannone is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn has a 7.65 ERA in his 4 starts against the Blue Jays the past few seasons (including a rough outing this season). The Blue Jays Thomas Pannone allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 and 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start at Rogers Centre. Ironically, in the lone start of his career against the Rangers, Pannone also allowed 7 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings at Texas in early May of this season. Yesterday's game was a 19-4 blowout win for the Blue Jays and I expect the Toronto sticks to remain red hot here as Lynn's history against them is poor. This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to as low as a 9 which is offering huge value on the over in this one. The Rangers have a .447 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that puts them in company with solid hitting teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Astros, and Twins. Look for Texas to get to Pannone early and often and also note that there is reason to believe Lynn's struggles against Toronto continues considering the way the Blue Jays were swinging the sticks yesterday. Behind Lynn is a Rangers bullpen that has a 4.85 ERA to rank among the worst pens in MLB. The Texas sticks have struggled of late but facing Pannone will bring out the best in them. As for the Blue Jays, they have scored an average of 8.1 runs per game in their past 7 home games and they've scored 5 or more runs in 6 of those 7 contests! The Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games against the Blue Jays. I look for each team to get to 5 runs here and, of course, that is a situation that would guarantee at least 11 runs would be scored (6-5 game) at worst. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - In 11 starts at the MLB level, Peter Lambert is 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA and opponents are pounding him at a .311 batting average. Lambert's ERA is 13.00 in his two starts thus far this month. The Diamondbacks didn't hit very well in their weekend series with division rival Los Angeles but those games were at Dodger Stadium. Look for Arizona to pound the ball on a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly ball park as Lambert, a rookie pitcher, continues to struggle at Coors Field. Also note that behind Lambert is a Rockies bullpen that is known for struggling in home games. The Diamondbacks certainly will have pitching concerns of their own in this one as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander is also a rookie and he is 4-7 with a 5.21 ERA in his dozen road starts this season. Kelly will be facing the Rockies for the 3rd time already this season and he has struggled against Colorado. Kelly enters this start enduring some overall struggles of late as he has a 10.67 ERA in his last 3 starts. With the Diamondbacks bullpen also averaging more than 4 innings per game in their weekend series with the Dodgers, the Arizona pen is not exactly in ideal shape heading into this game. The over moves to 4-1 in Kelly's last 5 road starts. The Rockies enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - This total has dropped to an 8 after opening up at an 8.5 when lines first were posted on this game. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu has phenomenal numbers this season. The key to the value here with this total actually involves multiple aspects. The Dodgers Ryu was said to have a neck issue and is coming off the 10-day disabled list. Even if his neck injury was minor, the extra time off could throw off his rhythm here. Additionally, Ryu is facing a Diamondbacks team whose .498 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers ranks them #1 in the National League! As for the Diamondbacks starter, Mike Leake, he is likely to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .284 clip this season and, in his first start since coming to Arizona from Seattle, Leake was very fortunate. He allowed only 2 earned runs in his 5 innings of work even though he allowed 11 hits. I expect the Dodgers to punish Leake early and often in this match-up. Last night LA had 4 runs by the 4th inning but the game died after that. On Sunday look for Los Angeles to keep it going all the way through and for the Diamondbacks to join the "hit parade" party in this one as Ryu will not be as sharp as usual and they have fared well against lefties this season. Arizona did use 5 innings of bullpen again yesterday - for the 2nd straight game - and an early exit for Leake (likely) could also prove costly here. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers get this total into the winning side of the ledger all by themselves. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - Aaron Sanchez had a very surprising debut for the Astros. However, lets not forget that the former Blue Jay is 1-8 with a 6.83 ERA in his 12 road starts this season. Opponents have hit .310 against him away from home and the Orioles are a divisional foe of Toronto so they have plenty of familiarity with Sanchez. Though the Astros right-hander has a low ERA in his recent starts against Baltimore he has had issues with far too many walks. Sanchez has more walks than strikeouts in his last 4 starts against the Orioles and they could make him pay for issuing too many free passes in this one. Baltimore is off back to back losses but averaged 5.5 runs per game in their dozen games prior to the back to back low-scoring defeats. Also, the Astros lineup was on fire before yesterday's low-scoring win. The fact is that the teams combined to go a miserable 2 for 19 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's game. That won't happen again here. Prior to the 3-2 win yesterday, Houston had averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in going 9-1 in their 10 prior games. The Orioles have the worst bullpen in the American League and they could be called upon early in this one with Aaron Brooks on the mound. The Baltimore right-hander has averaged less than 4 innings per start in his 5 outings (winless I might add) since coming to the Orioles. Brooks has a 6.63 ERA with the O's and also a 6.65 ERA in his major league career. Look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees JA Happ will be facing his former team. Though he has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays, Happ is likely to struggle here. He enters this start in poor current form as he has a 6.04 ERA since the All Star break. Also, Toronto has been hot at the plate as the Blue Jays have averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games. Speaking of hot at the plate, the Yankees are on absolute fire. New York has won 9 straight games and averaged 8.6 runs per game during this winning streak! The over is 16-3 in the Yankees last 19 games. The over is 3-0 in the Blue Jays last 3 home games and all 3 of those games have totaled 18 runs or more! The Jays Sean Reid-Foley has not given up many earned runs (1 in 9 innings) since he moved back into the rotation a couple weeks ago but he has been very fortunate! Toronto's Reid-Foley has walked 8 plus allowed 8 hits for a total of 16 base runners in 9 innings. The fact he only allowed 1 earned run was a minor miracle and he won't be so fortunate against the streaking, and powerful, Yankees! The Yanks, as a road favorite of -110 or higher, are an incredible 26-5 to the over this season! More of the same on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels Dillon Peters is off a strong outing but he has made only two starts this season. The fact is the southpaw has been hit hard for much of his 3-year career at the MLB level. Peters has a 5.23 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) at the MLB level and the lefty has been hit at a .289 clip. This season he has a low ERA but in limited action and plus Peters is still getting hit hard - .290 BAA this year. He'll be opposed by Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale. The Boston left-hander has not been himself since June and I look for that to continue here. Sale has gone 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 6 starts. The lefty has given up 11 homers in his last 8 starts. Look for Sale to struggle with an Angels lineup that has plenty of power hitters in it on a hitter-friendly night at Fenway Park. Also, Peters threw over 100 pitches in a long outing last week. Don't be surprised if Peters "peters out" early in this one as a result. That said, the Angels bullpen is mediocre at best this season and the Red Sox pen also falls into the "middle of the road" category this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Padres have some weaker offensive numbers due to their pitcher-friendly home park. On the road this season San Diego actually has a solid .446 slugging percentage which ranks them #3 in the National League! This is a battle of southpaws Wednesday and the Padres rank 6th in the National League with a .443 slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Mariners, they also have a .443 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 7th in the American League. Look for Seattle to have a big day at the plate here as they face a struggling Joey Lucchesi. The Padres left-hander appears to be running out of steam as the season has gone on. Also, Lucchesi has struggled on the road throughout this season. The lefty is 1-4 with a 6.46 ERA in his 9 starts away from home. As for the Mariners Yusei Kikuchi, he has been known for his struggles this season but also for getting solid run support. This is why the over is an amazing 17-4-2 in his 23 starts this season. He has struggled for much of this season and certainly is showing no signs of any type of drastic turnaround either. In fact, Kikuchi is going the wrong direction. Since the All Star break, Kikuchi is 0-2 with an 8.24 ERA in his 4 starts. With yesterday's 9-4 Padres win, San Diego has now scored 5 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games. The over is 6-2 in the Padres last 8 games. The Mariners had won 5 straight home games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those victories prior to yesterday's ugly loss. The M's sticks are sure to bounce back but look for Kikuchi's struggles to continue! 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Each bullpen gave up 3 earned runs in yesterday's game and that doesn't come as a big surprise. The Red Sox bullpen has fallen off this season and they rank only in the middle of the pack this season for bullpen ERA. The Royals bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors both for batting average against and bullpen ERA. That said, with both starting pitchers in this match-up likely to struggle, look for another game going over the total Tuesday. This total opened up at an 11 but then dropped to a 10.5 which is offering great line value on the over. Andrew Cashner has struggled badly since coming to the Red Sox. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and has been hit at a .333 clip in his 4 starts in a Boston uniform. Also note that Cashner allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning and compiled a 5.56 ERA and .319 BAA in his two starts versus KC last season. Now he gives the Royals another look at him in first start against them this season. As for Kansas City starter Jakob Junis, he is 3-7 with a 5.35 ERA in his dozen night starts this season. Junis got hammered by the Red Sox earlier this season and that was at home too. Now he faces them at Fenway Park where their lineup thrives. Look for the BoSox to build off yesterday's 7-5 win. The over is on a 29-11 run in Red Sox games and Kansas City is now 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games. The over is 8-1 in Cashner's home starts this season. The over is 17-8 in Royals games against AL East opponents this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The two teams with the longest current losing streaks in the majors are matched up in this one on Monday night so "something has to give". What I feel is going to "give" here is that the pitching staff of each of these teams is going to give up a ton of runs in this one. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Royals bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Considering that factor as well as the likelihood that both starting pitchers struggle here as they get pounded again and you can see why I love the over in this match-up despite the big number. In fact this total was high as a 12 before dropping to an 11.5 as of early this morning. Boston's Rick Porcello is having a nightmare season and has given up 6 runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Royals Mike Montgomery has a 6.34 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .340 against him on the year! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA in June and then followed that up with a 7.94 ERA in July! The over is 6-0 this season when Kansas City is revenging a 3 game sweep that had occurred at home against opponent. Indeed the Royals were swept by the Red Sox in a 3-game set in Kansas City two months ago! For the BoSox, the over is 21-11 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250 and their money line is within that price range Monday! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - When totals get this big (opened up at a 14) many over players get nervous and shy away while the under players come in thinking they've struck gold. Trust me, the opening number was absolutely justified and, that said, the early drop to a 13.5 is simply adding more value here. This is an early afternoon game at Coors Field and temperatures will be rising to the 90s with low humidity and that means the ball will carry extremely well. Couple that with the fact that a pair of struggling starting pitchers take the mound and you have the perfect recipe for a slugfest. The Giants Tyler Beede has a 6.23 ERA in his 10 appearances (9 starts) on the road in his career. The San Francisco right-hander has made only one appearance at Coors Field in his career and in just 2 innings he gave up 3 hits plus walked 3 so he was somewhat fortunate that he only allowed 2 earned runs in that outing. Don't be surprised if things get ugly for him in a hurry in this one. The Rockies have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 29 games at home. The Giants also have been scoring very well as they've been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks now. San Francisco has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 22 road games. The Giants have averaged scoring 9.4 runs per game in their last 8 contests at Coors Field. The SF lineup will take advantage of facing a struggling Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has been hit a .346 in his 8 home starts this season while going 1-4 and compiling an ugly 10.31 ERA. Freeland has given up 13 hits and walked 5 in 10 innings of work against the Giants this season. With the Rockies bullpen also having a very high ERA at home this season, you can see why I am expecting a wild game at Coors Field this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10.5 and has dropped to a 10. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles entered Friday's game on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Blue Jays entered yesterday's game on a 5-1 run to the over. Thomas Pannone has struggled on the road throughout his young MLB career. Last season he had a 6.20 ERA in his 7 road appearances (3 starts). This season the Blue Jays southpaw is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA in his 11 appearances (4 starts) away from home. Yes he had a great home start against the Orioles last year but he got rocked in his lone start at Oriole Park at Camden Yards! Speaking of rough outings in Baltimore, Dylan Bundy has found road starts to be more to his liking than home starts! This season, Bundy is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA in his 10 home starts. By the way, last season Bundy went 2-15 with a 7.32 ERA in evening games. He was much better in day starts. Of course this game goes at 7 PM ET in Baltimore. Bundy was successful at Toronto in early July but now the Blue Jays get a quick second look and, again, the Orioles right-hander has been awful at home this season. Overall this year he has had one good month (May). Bundy has had an ERA of 5.68 or more in each of the other months this season! Also, prior to that good start against the Jays a month ago, note that Bundy's 3 most recent starts against Toronto (all in the 2nd half of last season) saw him allow 17 runs (14 earned) in just 15 and 2/3 innings. The Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the AL. The Blue Jays pen is respectable but will be asked to do too much here as Pannone's road struggles continue. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 PM ET - After the Twins blew a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th yesterday at lowly Miami (and then lost the game in 12 innings), my first inclination was to go with Minnesota on the run line in today's game. However, I can not trust Martin Perez in this match-up. The Twins southpaw has given up 11 runs (8 earned) in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Royals. Both of those outings were in June so Kansas City has had some recent looks at the lefty and should enjoy success again here. The key to the over is the angry Minnesota lineup likely pummeling a struggling Glenn Sparkman in this one. The Royals right-hander got destroyed again in his most recent start (against the Indians) and faces another huge test here. Pitching at Minnesota is highly unlikely to go well for Sparkman as he is 0-4 with an 8.73 ERA in 9 games (6 starts) on the road this season. Opponents are hitting an incredible .347 against Sparkman when he is away from home this season. Of course other key factors here include the fact that the Twins had to use some extra bullpen with yesterday's loss going 12 innings. Also, the Royals bullpen has been hit at a .271 clip this season which ranks them dead last in the American League and 29th in the majors! You can see why I am expecting runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Divisional Dominator Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Andrew Cashner allowed only 3 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start BUT he gave up 10 hits. The fact is that he has been hit hard in all 3 of his starts since coming to the Red Sox from the Orioles. Now he faces a Rays team that is heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-5 Tampa Bay win at Fenway Park, the Rays have now won 5 of 6 games and have scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their past 4 games. The Red Sox will be in bounce back mode after 3 straight home losses. Of course 3 straight defeats at Fenway Park is unusual for Boston but I don't think Cashner will be the stopper they need. That said, the Red Sox are going to have to do it with their bats Thursday and that is why I like the over so much. The Rays are starting southpaw Brandon McKay. He was recalled from AAA ball for this start and he got rocked in his most recent MLB start two weeks ago. McKay has pitched extremely well at the minor league level but, of course pitching at the MLB level is always a different challenge. McKay has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 MLB starts and certainly pitching at Fenway Park is not an easy place to get back on track. Boston has a .500 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them #1 in the American League. Also, the Red Sox rank 4th in the AL for slugging percentage against southpaw pitchers this season. The over is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 games and that includes 6 straight Red Sox games going over the total. More of the same expected on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Boston 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - This total opened up at a 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 as of very early Wednesday morning. This is offering great line value on the over. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu and German Marquez both have some excellent numbers. The key is the venue for this one! Ryu has found Coors Field to be a nightmare and Marquez also consistently struggles here. Ryu entered this season having gone 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in starts at Coors Field the 3 prior seasons. That's why it comes as no surprise that in his lone start here in 2019 he got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 innings. Like I said, this is a nightmare venue for Ryu and also note that he has admitted having some issues with command of his pitches in recent starts. He was able to get away with it in those outings but a lack of command in hitter-friendly Denver leads to another nightmare outing! As for the Rockies Marquez, he has been great in his last two starts but those were on the road. In his most recent home start Marquez got rocked and that continued a long-term trend! He has been hit at a .336 clip and has a 7.07 ERA in his home starts this season. A fluke? Absolutely not as Marquez also had a 4.74 ERA and a .284 BAA in his home starts last season. The Dodgers possess a very potent lineup and, considering the above factors, a back and forth slug-fest is likely on a hot afternoon in Denver. The hot weather means the ball is going to carry especially well in a day game at Coors Field. Los Angeles has a .479 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers and that is #1 in the National League this season. The Rockies have a .524 slugging percentage in home games this season and that is #1 in the majors! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - Taylor Clarke is off a RARE quality start in his most recent outing. So is the "buy sign" now "on" for him? Of course not! That means that actually the fade is on here as he now faces the Bronx Bombers in their own home in his very next start after hosting AL East cellar-dwellars (Baltimore) in his prior appearance. Clarke has a 6.10 ERA in this, his rookie, season at the MLB level. In my mind this was not unexpected as Clarke compiled a 7.22 ERA at the AAA level of the minors in his 7 starts there this season! The good news for the Diamondbacks is they face another southpaw today. Arizona has a .496 slugging percentage against left-handers this season and that ranks them #1 in the National League on the season! JA Happ gets the start for the Yankees here and the lefty has given up 14 hits in his last 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall this season Happ has struggled at Yankee Stadium as he has a 5.76 ERA and has been hit at a .302 clip in the Bronx on the year! The Yankees have averaged 7.2 runs per game their last 13 games and their games continue flying over the total. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Also, both Arizona and the Yanks are continuing to give up runs in big batches. This one has the makings of a slugfest in the Bronx. As a road dog of +150 or more, the Diamondbacks are 10-3 to the over this season. The Yankees are 10-2 to the over this season when they are playing with road loss revenge and they lost both games at Arizona earlier this season. Payback time here means a ton of runs expected from the Bronx Bombers! Happ will be giving up plenty to the Dbacks as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped to a 9 (not unexpected) and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the line move and playing the over. Certainly I understand what the betting markets are looking at here as both David Keuchel and Patrick Corbin are solid southpaws with low ERA numbers on the season. What is getting underestimated is the potency of each of these two lineups and I feel this number is too low when that is given adequate consideration. Corbin recently faced the Braves and he gave up just 2 earned runs in 5 innings but he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits! The Nats lefty won't be so fortunate in the rematch. As for Keuchel, he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work at Washington last month. As you can see, there is reason to believe both hurlers could get "touched up" in this one! Additionally, the Nationals 6.04 ERA ranks them as the worst in the majors. Atlanta enters this game having averaged scoring 9.3 runs per game in their 3-game series with the Phillies over the weekend! The Nationals have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 13 games. This will be the 24th game this season that the Braves have had against a left-handed starter this season. So far only 8 have resulted in an under. Look for that trend to continue here as this one surprises many and ends up with double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - After the first game of this series flew over the total, the second game stayed under despite Minnesota scoring 6 runs and the third game stayed under despite Chicago scoring 5 runs. The key to the over on Sunday is both teams should certainly contribute well to this total. Dylan Covey's return to the rotation for the White Sox saw him strike out 7 while issuing no walks in 6 innings. However, he still allowed 5 earned runs in that outing and this was against a bad Marlins team. Covey is now 6-27 with a 6.09 in his 58 MLB appearances including 42 starts. I expect him to get pounded here as the Twins bounce back after a miserable night at the plate where they scored only 1 run. The issue for Minnesota today will also be their starting pitcher as they hand the ball to Kyle Gibson. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 at home this season but note that he is just 3-3 in his 10 road starts and has been hit at a .282 clip when on the road - that's 60 points higher than when he is at home. Also, in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts against the White Sox, Gibson has allowed 12 runs (9 earned). Considering all of the above as well as the fact that these are two mediocre bullpens in this match-up, I expect runs early and often and throughout this series finale. Covey's starts have trended under this season but that makes no sense given his poor performance. That will fix itself now that he is back in the rotation and still struggling. Also, the over is 6-3 in Gibson's road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox 

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Chicago's Ivan Nova is off a rare strong start but he faced a bad Marlins team! In fact, against American League foes Nova has been charged with 4 or more runs in 7 straight starts! Look for him to struggle against a strong Twins team Saturday evening as Minnesota has won 4 of its last 6 games and scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in the process! As for the White Sox lineup, certainly they have struggled of late. However, facing Martin Perez is likely to bring out the best in them. Perez has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Also, Perez enters this outing with an 8.10 ERA in his July starts against American League foes. His stuff was very hittable in his most recent start and I see no reason to believe that will change here. The wind will be blowing out to left at a decent clip in this one and that will also aid the cause here as a slugfest ensues. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Last night's game saw 31 runners left on base. Also, the teams combined to go 2 for 26 with runners in scoring position! Even though the game went 14 innings those are still ridiculously insane numbers that reflect futility in clutch situations. It is in situations like these that I like to follow up with an "over" the very next day. Even though the Indians have a strong bullpen the fact is that both teams used up a ton of bullpen yesterday and that is also noteworthy because the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors and now they are short on pitching for tonight's game. Making the situation even worse for KC coming into tonight's game is the fact that Royals starter Jakob Junis may not last long. I know he had a good start against the Indians in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm throughout his career. Junis has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts against the Tribe this season. Also, Junis entered this season having compiled a 5.63 ERA in his 6 games (5 starts) versus Cleveland. As for Indians starter Zach Plesac, he was very successful against the Royals in his most recent start. However, earlier this month he faced KC at Kauffman Stadium and struggled. In fact, Plesac has ugly numbers in recent outings away from home. In Plesac's last two road starts he has been rocked for 10 runs (9 earned) in just 6 and 1/3 innings. After last night's unreal waste of scoring opportunities, these two teams make up for it tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City 

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - The last 3 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total and yes, I am aware that the last two games in this streak were both played in that crazy London series where the ball park played out like a band box with plenty of homers. However, based on this pitching match-up as well as favorable weather expected at hitter-friendly Fenway Park Thursday, I expect another wild, high-scoring game between these huge rivals. The Yankees have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 7 games against Boston. The Red Sox have averaged 7.4 runs per game in their last 14 games as a host to the Bronx Bombers. As for the pitching match-up here, Masahiro Tanaka has made 6 starts against the Red Sox since the beginning of last season and he has compiled an 8.39 ERA in those outings. Rick Porcello has faced the Yankees twice this season and he has a 19.80 ERA in those two outings. Also, Porcello enters this start with a horrible 10.57 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Tanaka enters this start with with the over having gone 4-1 in his last 5 starts. The Yankees are off another wild 10-7 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:40 ET - John Means was the lone Orioles representative at the All Star game and certainly he is a solid pitcher overall. However, the lefty is facing a Diamondbacks team that ranks #1 in the National League for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season! Also, though Means is off a strong start versus Boston, he only registered one strikeout in six innings. Prior to that one Means gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in a start against Tampa Bay that saw him allow 3 homers. I would not be surprised to see him struggle some in this start at Arizona given how well they've hit southpaws this season. Also, it is certainly noteworthy that he has averaged only 5.5 innings per start this year. That means we should see a good amount of Orioles bullpen in this one and their team ERA for the bullpen ranks dead last in the American League. As for Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke, he had a 7.22 ERA in his 7 AAA starts this year in the minors. That said, it should not come as a surprise that he has mostly struggled at the MLB level and has a 6.50 ERA in his 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Dbacks. I know that the Orioles season record is ugly of course but they have been swinging the bats much better of late. In fact, Baltimore ranks #2 out of all 30 teams with a .571 slugging percentage the last 7 days. The Orioles have now won 4 of their last 6 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the process. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs from both teams in this one. Also, Clarke has averaged just 3 and 2/3 innings per start his last 8 starts and that means the Diamondbacks pen (a mediocre one) will be asked to do too much in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 as of very early game day morning. This is offering superb line value with the over. Boston's Chris Sale is off a great start versus the Blue Jays. However, in his 4 prior starts he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) on 29 hits (including 6 homers) in 21 and 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, we're dealing with a very low total here considering this an American League match-up. No pitchers batting in this one and last night both teams enjoyed success against the opposing bullpens as well. Tampa Bay's bullpen has great numbers on the season but last night's 9-4 loss was the 5th time in the last 7 games that the Rays allowed 5 or more runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been a major disappointment this season and they now have a 4.60 ERA on the year which ranks them in the bottom half of the majors. The Boston sticks have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in their last 20 road games. Again, this total is only 7.5 so you can really see the value as the Red Sox also have hitters whom have enjoyed plenty of success against the Rays Yonny Chirinos. Boston is the #1 hitting team in the majors against right-handed pitching this season. Also, Chirinos did get the better of the Red Sox at Fenway Park earlier this season and that means it is payback time for a red hot Boston lineup. I respect both these starting pitchers but Sale has averaged only 5 and 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts and Chirinos has pitched 6 or less innings in 13 of his last 14 starts so we're likely to see substantial bullpen work in this one too. The Rays pen couldn't get the Red Sox to hit balls on the ground last night and that is an issue. Look for another big night for the sticks at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 8:10 ET - The Marlins are off a shutout loss yesterday and it got ugly as their beleaguered bullpen faltered again in the 9-0 defeat. Miami has one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the White Sox bullpen is truly not much better. Considering that, as well as the fact that both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here, I am looking for double digits in runs scored in this one. Chicago's Ivan Nova is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in his last two starts. Miami's Trevor Richards is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. Richards has been struggling for 4 straight starts as he has allowed 16 earned runs in 20 innings during this span. The White Sox bats will be ready to get going at home after struggling in the final two games of their series at Tropicana Field. Chicago had averaged a dozen hits per game in their 3 games previous to struggling and scoring just 2 runs in each of the weekend games at Tampa. In terms of production at home, the White Sox sticks have averaged 10 hits per game in their last 11 games as a host. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Marlins road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. The over is 3-1 in Chicago's games against NL East opponents this season. Also, in the 2nd half of this season, the over is 3-1 in White Sox games against teams with a losing record. While neither lineup is overly imposing, it is sub-par pitching that should key an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 2:10 ET - The Astros Lance Lynn has a low ERA versus the Astros this season but, keep in mind, he did allow 3 homers in his lone start at Houston this season. Also, though Lynn has a 3.15 ERA this month he has been hit at a .277 clip and all 3 of those starts were at home. This will be just the second road start for Lynn since mid-June! I expect the Astros to enjoy success at the plate here as this is their third shot at Lynn this season. Though he had success against them on July 11th, Lynn's other two starts this month saw him allow 7 earned runs on 17 hits in 13 innings. The issue for Houston today won't be their lineup, it will be the fact that their starting rotation has been impacted by injury. The Astros are expected to give Rogelio Armenteros his first-ever MLB start. The rookie right-hander has had some success in his first 3 MLB appearances out of the bullpen. However, lets not forget that Armenteros went 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA and .286 BAA at AAA Round Rock this season. Though one can say that is the Pacific Coast League and ERAs do tend to be higher than normal there, it does not change the fact that it is AAA hitters he is facing and plus Armenteros had much better numbers in the very same league last season. Don't be surprised if the Rangers give him a rough intro to what it is like to start at the MLB level and, of course, he'll face the extra pressure of trying to perform well for the home fans here. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Texas entered this series on a 10-3 run to the over. Also the Astros and Rangers entered this series having gone 5-1 to the over in their 6 most recent meetings. With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 we have even more value in this one. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Tom Eshelman gets the start for the Orioles. He has limited MLB action and is likely to get crushed by a Red Sox lineup that is very powerful and will be fully focused after yesterday's embarrassing loss. This total is up near a dozen runs and many will look at this as being too high so, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the over and telling you this one should fly over the total. Eshelman truly has only had ONE good season in the minors. That was 2017. He certainly did not impress in 2015 or 2016. As for 2018 and 2019 he is a combined 4-18 with a 5.38 ERA. Keep in mind this is against MINOR league hitters and now he faces the Red Sox off an embarrassing loss. Eshelman is destined to get pounded but I also expect Boston's Rick Porcello to get pounded as well and that is why the play here is the over. The Orioles tend to score better when at home and have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their last 10 at Camden Yards. They'll take advantage of Porcello. The BoSox right-hander has a 5.97 ERA in road games this season and has been hit at a .297 clip away from home. Since the start of the 2017 season he has allowed 81 homers! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA last month and has a 7.71 ERA so far this month. As you can see he is not exactly improving as the season has gone on. Also, the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the American League. A slugfest is likely here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - No team in MLB has scored more runs against left-handed pitching than the Rockies. Look for Colorado to get to JA Happ early and often in this one. Happ has been hit at a .294 clip in home games this season and has a 5.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Taking a look at the other side of this match-up, I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees do not have great numbers against left-handed pitching this season but they are facing a struggling southpaw in this one. The Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland and the lefty has gone 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his 13 starts this season. He has been particularly poor in night games as he is 1-5 with a 7.99 ERA in evening outings and it is going to be hot and steamy in the Bronx tonight. The Rockies enter this game having allowed an average of 11 runs per game in their last 6 games. Colorado did score 8 or more runs in 3 of those 6 games. The Yankees are coming off 3 straight wins against the Rays after losing the opener of a 4-game series. The Yanks averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. This is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified as these are two potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to get rocked. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - Hot and steamy evening at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. It is the ideal weather for the ball to be jumping off the bats in Cincinnati and, based on this pitching match-up. we should see plenty of that in this one. Dakota Hudson starts for the Cardinals and he has had decent success against the Reds in his career but this will be his first ever start at Cincinnati! As for the Reds Tanner Roark, he had a decent start against the Cards earlier this season but that was preceded by a rough history against St Louis. Roark allowed 19 earned runs in 24 innings in his 5 prior starts against the Cardinals. The fact that Roark's April start against STL stayed under the total was very unusual as NONE of Roark's first 5 career starts against the Cards resulted in an under. As for the Cardinals, they are 14-8 to the over this season when they are a road dog in a range of +100 to +150. The Reds are 4-1 to the over this season when they enter a game off back to back losses to a division rival. After losing 2 straight to the Cubs, Cincinnati's bats get back on track here but Roark gives up plenty too in what should be a back and forth high-scoring affair. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and of course the odds makers are well aware of the fact that the Indians Mike Clevinger has pitched very well in his last two starts and could be getting back on track finally. Of course the market moved this total down to a 9 but I feel the odds makers had it right. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the market move. For one thing, the Tigers lineup does have plenty of familiarity with Clevinger and lets not forget that Detroit had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 road games prior to getting shutout last night. I expect the Tigers lineup to bounce back here. The issue for Detroit is they can't stop teams from scoring and that won't change with Spencer Turnbull on the mound. Keep in mind, behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. As for Turnbull's likelihood of success on the mound tonight it ranges between slim and none. The Detroit right-hander has given up 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work in his last two road starts. Turnbull has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts away from home. Also, Turnbull is 0-3 with 11 earned runs allowed on 24 hits allowed in the 14 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Indians. The over, prior to the shutout last night for the Tigers, was 10-2-1 in their previous 13 road games! The over is 8-2 this season when the Indians are off a shutout win. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - No team in the American League has scored more runs at home than Texas. No team in the National League has a higher slugging percentage on the road than Arizona. The point is that both these teams can be expected to do plenty of damage here. I know that Alex Young has pitched very well for the Diamondbacks but his MLB action has been limited. He has made 3 starts and one was at home and the other two were both at pitcher friendly venues. Young is making his first ever "tough venue" road start and I expect the southpaw to finally come back down to earth after his surprising success at the MLB level. Keep in mind, Young had a combined 6.00 ERA in 40 appearances (20 starts) at the AAA level of the minors before his call up this season. Both last year and this year at the AAA level were not impressive for the young left-hander. As for Rangers starter Lance Lynn, he has pitched well this season but he has given up 15 hits in 14 innings in his two July starts - both at home. Also, in his final home start of June he allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings. Even though this is an interleague game, the Diamondbacks did face Lynn earlier this season. They will fare much better now that they're seeing him for a 2nd time this season. The over is 23-13 this season when Arizona is a road underdog. Also, in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 to the over. Texas is 12-6 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or more runs. The Rangers are also 8-3 to the over their last 11 games and 10-4 to the over in Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - The Brewers are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when at home. The Braves are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when facing right-handed pitching. Atlanta will take advantage of a struggling Adrian Houser in this one. Houser has been exceptional out of the bullpen this season but he has struggled in the starting role. Milwaukee is sticking with him, for now, but the fact is some guys never get right in this role and are better suited for bullpen duty. Note that Houser is now 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA in his 5 starts this season! Facing one of the hottest teams in the majors is unlikely to help matters for the struggling Houser. Speaking of struggling, the Braves Max Fried got rocked in each of his last two starts before the All Star break. Though he was successful against the Brewers earlier this season, that start was at Atlanta. When Fried faced Milwaukee at Miller Park last season he gave up 4 earned runs in a start that lasted only 3 innings. The over is 11-5-2 in Fried's starts this season. The over is 2-0 in Houser's last two starts. The Brewers are 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 games. The over is 5-2 this season when Atlanta enters a game on a winning streak of 4 or more consecutive games. After getting shutout in their first game this month, the Braves have scored an average of 6 runs per game since then. Milwaukee has averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 6 games but they've given up an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch as their bullpen has faltered. More of the same likely here, especially considering that Houser is unlikely to work deep into this game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - The Mariners Yusei Kikuchi has struggled this season and the Angels sticks have certainly been a part of that as they have caused plenty of damage when facing the southpaw. Kikuchi has faced the Angels three times and has a 12.34 ERA with 5 homers allowed in less than a dozen innings spanning those three outings. Los Angeles enters this game having piled up 22 runs in the first two games of this series and more of the same expected Sunday given this pitching match-up. Yes the Seattle bats have been held in check so far in this series but that should change today. The Mariners solid lineup will take advantage of facing a rookie hurler they've already seen twice this season. Overall, LA rookie Jose Suarez is struggling. That means it is particularly bad news when a struggling rookie has to face a potent lineup for the 3rd time already in the same season. The point is that the Mariners are very familiar with him and they can do plenty of damage against him. Note that the over is 9-1 in Kikuchi's ten road starts this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 (one push) in the six starts that Suarez has made this season. The over is also 8-2-1 in the last 11 games between these teams as their match-ups continue to turn into slugfests. Certainly this match-up has all the right ingredients for the slugging ways to continue. Sometimes key players rest on a Sunday but, with both teams having an off day tomorrow, that should not be the case here and both lineups should end up being stacked! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - This total may seem absurd with how big it is but it is still not big enough. This one opened up at 13 and is now a 14 as of very early game day morning. Don't let the large number scare you. Tanner Roark has decent career numbers against the Rockies but the Reds right-hander made only one career start at Coors Field. Roark was very fortunate in that outing as he allowed 5 hits and plus walked 4 batters in that 5-inning effort and yet he managed to hold Colorado to 2 runs. He won't be so fortunate here. Hitting conditions will be ideal tonight in Denver and the ball is going to be jumping off the bats. Of course that is bad news for the Rockies starting pitcher tonight too. Kyle Freeland gets the start and he is having a hellish season. The Colorado southpaw is 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA. That is why the Rockies sent him to the minors to "get right" and he is now being called back up after his stint there. However, Freeland certainly still does NOT look right. The Colorado southpaw went 0-4 with an 8.80 ERA in his 6 starts with Albuquerque in the minors. He is likely to get rocked here. After last night's 3-2 final it may seem tough to expect 15 runs here but I see that and much more on the horizon in a slugfest tonight. The Rockies bullpen has a 6.16 ERA in home games this season. The Reds bullpen has been decent this season but they were welcomed to Coors Field last night by allowing 2 earned runs in just 1 inning and blowing the game. I expect the Cincinnati bullpen to be called upon much earlier in this one and the results will again be ugly for them. That said, this one has the makings of runs early, often, and throughout the contest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - After getting shutout in last night's game the Astros will respond tonight. After scoring only 1 run after the 1st inning last night, the Rangers bats also are going to surprise some people tonight with more consistent offensive production. Yes, Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher and the Astros right-hander has been on fire of late. However, this will be just his 2nd road start since June 2nd. In other words, he has been dominating at home but this is a pitcher whom has struggled in Arlington. In his last 3 starts at Globe Life Park, Cole has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in 15 and 1/3 innings. You read that right...Cole has allowed about a run per inning the last 3 times he has faced Texas in their park. As for run support here, Cole should receive plenty of it. Jesse Chavez is coming back down to earth after some surprising early success in the starters role. In his last two outings Chavez has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings of work and now he faces an angry Astros lineup (after last night's shutout loss) that is loaded with hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Prior to last night's game totaling just 5 runs, 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams had gone over the total. Those 4 overs averaged 17 runs per game! I am not saying this one will hit 17 but I am saying it gets to double figures and this game opened up at a 10.5 but has dropped to a 9.5 as of early Friday morning. I am all over the value being offered with this one after the line move. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - When the Cubs were up 5-1 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game and still had bases loaded and nobody out but yet didn't score a single run, I had a bad feeling that would burn us. Sure enough my hot streak with top totals ended because the game fell a half run short. We've had some good breaks along the way too and you have to take the bad with the good. So we move forward and when I saw the pitching match-up for Sunday (and after getting burned Saturday), I knew I would be coming right back with the over in the Chicago match-up again. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he is 3-5 with a 5.53 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and he is 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 9-4 in Cubs inter-league games this season. The over is 12-6 this season when the White Sox are a home dog of +125 or more. Payback time here as this one should take care of business for us after Saturday's frustrating finish. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester has been great this season in home games but, even though this game is being played in Chicago, it is on the south side at Guaranteed Rate Field. Note that Lester has a 5.67 ERA away from home this season. A cool front is blowing through Chicago today and that will keep temperatures very comfortable in the low 70s and with a solid north wind blowing out toward right. Some of the left-handed bats particularly of the Cubs could take advantage of that as they face the right-hander Lucas Giolito. While it is true that Giolioto has great numbers on the season, the Cubs got to him for 3 homers when they faced him last month. In that outing Giolito allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. Giolito also faced the Cubs in September here on the south side and that start did not go particularly well either. In fact, Giolito has now allowed a total of 11 earned runs in his last two starts against the Cubs. Coincidentally, Lester happened to be matched up with Giolito in each of those two starts. Though Lester allowed a total of only 5 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings, the lefty did give up 15 hits so he was very fortunate to say the least. The White Sox won't let him off the hook this time as his road struggles continue this season. The over is 3-0 in Lester's last 3 starts against the White Sox. Also, the over is 6-1 in Lester's road starts this season. The Cubs are 4-1 to the over their last 5 games. The White Sox are 13-7 to the over their last 20 games. The Cubs are 9-3 to the over in inter-league games this season. The White Sox are 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Royals are ranked in the bottom third of the majors for bullpen ERA. The Nationals relief corps is even worse as they are ranked dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. This could prove to be a key factor early this evening in DC because it is unlikely that either one of these starting pitchers will last long. Kansas City is starting Brad Keller and he has been solid at home this season but the road has been a different story. Away from home, Keller is 2-6 with a 5.08 ERA in his 7 road starts. Opponents are hitting .281 against Keller when he is away from home. Last season, his rookie campaign, Keller also got hit at a .282 clip so there is consistency in terms of his performances away from home. The Nationals should jump all over him but their problem is that they also have an inexperienced hurler on the mound whom is still trying to find his way at the MLB level. Austin Voth gets the start here and he is off a poor start at Detroit. Keep in mind the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in the majors. Granted the Royals aren't a whole lot better but KC does enter this game having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. All 5 of those games went over the total. As for the Nationals, they have a .458 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of teams in the majors! The Nats have won 13 of their last 16 games and have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 5:10 ET - The Yankees won again (5-1) yesterday and they continue red hot at the plate as they again reached double digits in hits. The Yankees have now won 14 of their past 16 games and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game during this hot streak! The Rays aren't known for their hitting prowess but I like their chances against an inconsistent JA Happ. Also, Tampa Bay lost 9-6 yesterday but that marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Rays have scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, with today's total posted at a 9, we only need each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee us of a non-losing ticket as the game would have to end at least 5-4. The fact is I am expecting much more than that here in terms of runs scored. The Rays have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games and Happ has a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has continually been hit hard. Tampa Bay is starting Yonny Chirinos in this one. The TB right-hander has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. Also, in his two starts against the Yankees he has allowed 3 earned runs each time. Having just seen him a couple of weeks ago, the Yanks lineup is likely to enjoy even more success in the rematch today. Happ only allowed 2 earned runs to the Rays when he faced them two weeks ago but he did allow 7 hits in 5 innings and that was in the Bronx. In 2 of his last 3 starts at Tropicana Field he has been roughed up and that is where today's start is. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. New York is off back to back unders in their IL series with the Mets but the Yankees entered that series on a 15-5 run to the over and their sticks have remained hot. The over is 25-10 in Yanks road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - The lowest scoring game on the board yesterday was this match-up which ended up a 2-0 Phillies win thanks to a brilliant start from Aaron Nola. After that pitchers duel now we've got the perfect set up for a slugfest on Wednesday as Nick Pivetta squares off with Bryse Wilson. Philadelphia's Pivetta has an ugly 7.13 ERA over his last 3 starts and he has allowed 7 homers during this stretch. As for Atlanta's Wilson, he has an 8.31 ERA in limited action this season. He is very early in his MLB career but already Wilson has proven to struggle at this level. In 6 games (3 starts) the Braves right-hander has been been hit at a .306 clip at the MLB level. The Phillies, prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 7.4 runs per game in their 7 prior games. The Braves, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 17 of their last 23 games and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game. The over is 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts against the Braves and he got crushed in each of the last two. Wilson got crushed in his starts versus the Phillies earlier this season and the over is perfect in his starts this season. The Braves are 22-12 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. In Braves home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 5-2 this season. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's shutout, had allowed 5 or more runs in 12 of their past 16 games! Atlanta, prior to getting a sharp start from Dallas Keuchel yesterday, had allowed 8 or more runs in 4 of their past 9 games. A slugfest on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Jose Urquidy will be making his MLB debut for the Astros. The Houston right-hander is known for having great control but also known for not having overwhelming stuff in terms of his repertoire of pitches and their movement. That being said, making an MLB debut at Coors Field without having dominating stuff even in normal pitching conditions, this is unlikely to go well for Urquidy. Note that the Rockies last 8 home games have produced 7 overs and just 1 under. In these 8 games at Colorado, the Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game but also allowed an average of 10 runs per game! The home side is starting German Marquez in this one. The right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip at Coors Field this season and has produced a 5.70 ERA in his 9 starts here. Marquez had similar struggles at home last season with a 4.74 ERA and being hit at a .284 clip in Denver. I also like the fact that his ERA has been rising higher with each month this season. Last month Marquez compiled a 6.60 ERA in his five starts. The over is 5-2 this season when Houston is off a win over a division rival in which they allowed 1 run or less. Also, the Astros are 10-3 to the over in Tuesday games this season. Colorado is 18-8 to the over this season as a home favorite of -110 or more. After a game in which they allowed double digits in runs scored, the Rockies are 9-2 to the over this season. More of the same on tap in what should be another wild one at Coors Field Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Adbert Alzolay has made two appearances thus far for the Cubs and he has been successful. However, this will be just his 2nd start at the MLB level and his first ever appearance on the road. Also, let us not forget that this is a guy whom last season and this season combined has a 4.40 ERA at the minor league level. In other words, as strong as he has been thus far, it has been very limited action for sure at the MLB level and I am predicting a regression to the mean begins today. Look for Alzolay to struggle Monday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates are off a tough series at the plate at Milwaukee. However, prior to struggling to score runs against the Brewers, Pittsburgh had averaged 6.7 runs per game in their 15 previous games. Look for the Bucs to get back on track as they return home for this series with the Cubs. As for Chicago, they have defeated Trevor Williams in 5 of his 6 career starts against him. The Cubs have a number of hitters in their lineup whom have enjoyed success against the Pirates right-hander. Williams will be dealing with a Cubs team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the season, Williams has a 6.00 ERA in his home starts with 3 of the 4 going over the total. Look for the Cubs hitters to start the new week off with a bang! This is the 10th Monday game this season for Chicago and so far the Cubs have had only 1 under this season in a Monday game! The Pirates are 18-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 11-4 to the over this season when they are at home and priced as an underdog of +100 or higher. The over is 6-0-1 in Pirates Monday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - Congrats to Rockies starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez on making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery. He is coming off his first start at the MLB level since 2016. Though he allowed only 3 earned runs in that outing it was against a light-hitting Giants team and it was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Also, it is not as if he had a great outing as he allowed 6 hits plus walked 4 in just 5 innings of work. Now he faces the slugging Dodgers at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Look for Gonzalez to struggle this afternoon at Coors Field. Keep in mind, prior to his MLB season debut versus SF, he was pitching in the minors this season. Gonzalez compiled a 5.66 ERA at the minor league level this season. In other words, he was very far from being dominant even when facing minor league hitters. Now he faces one of the toughest major league lineups in the game. Look for this one to get ugly for him fast. I know yesterday's game stayed well under the total but Kershaw went 7 innings and Gray went 6 and 2/3 innings. That means the teams combined to use just 3 and 1/3 innings of bullpen and that helped keep the total under. The fact is neither of these starts is likely to last long. Kenta Maeda has enjoyed some surprising success against the Rockies, even at Coors Field, in his career. However, I feel strongly it all catches up with him here as his road stats long-term tell the full story. Maeda has a 5.67 ERA on the road this season. Last season his home and road stats were about the same but in 2017 the Dodgers right-hander had a 5.62 ERA on the road. He is known for struggling away from home and the Rockies enter this game having averaged scoring 10.6 runs per game in their last 7 home games! They'll explode in this one and, keep in mind, prior to yesterday's low-scoring Rockies win the last 6 games here had averaged a total of 22 runs scored per game. Yes the total is a 13.5 on this one but don't let the big number scare you away as another slug-fest is on tap this afternoon at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:15 ET - It may seem surprising to see a 9.5 posted on a total that involves Justin Verlander pitching at home in Houston. Of course long-time followers know that when something may look a little unusual I am one to fade market perception and be a contrarian. On that note, even with Verlander on the mound and the fact yesterday's 10-inning affair totaled only 3 runs, I am on the over in a big way in this one. For one thing, Verlander has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season that the Mariners are getting a crack at Verlander and I look for the 3rd time to be the charm. The first two match-ups this season were in Seattle and Verlander held the upper hand. This one, however, is at Minute Maid Park and the last time Verlander faced the Mariners here was in August. The veteran right-hander got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings as he allowed 7 hits including 3 homers! Don't be surprised when Seattle enjoys some success at the plate in this one. As for the Astros sticks, they should pound Yusei Kikuchi as he has a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and that could easily be even worse. Kikuchi has allowed nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 outings! The over is an incredible 14-1-2 in Kikuchi's 17 starts this season! Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 4-1 in the Astros previous 5 games. The Mariners are 11-1-1 to the over in Saturday games this season! Also, Seattle is overall 55-25 to the over on the season - with 5 pushes - and that strong high-scoring trending resumes today after yesterday's rare low-scoring result. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Reds Sonny Gray and the Cubs Cole Hamels both have solid ERA numbers on the season. However, Gray has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts. Also, when he faced the Cubs last month the Reds right-hander also allowed 2 homers. Hamels allowed 8 hits (including 2 homers) in less than 7 innings of work the last time he faced the Reds. Also, he enters this start off an outing in which he also allowed 2 homers. Gray has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and Hamels, despite recent success, could struggle here at a very hitter-friendly park on a night when the ball will be carrying very well based on the weather forecast. The ball should be jumping off the bats on a very hot evening at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are happy to be back home after scoring just 1 run in each of the final two games of their road trip. Prior to that Cincinnati had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 8 prior games! As for the Cubs, they're off a huge 9-7 win yesterday. Chicago has averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their past 9 games. The over is 15-9 this season when the Cubs are facing a team with a losing record. Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Chicago's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati