Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Dodgers Ross Stripling has averaged less than 5 innings per start in his 4 starts since the All Star break. In those outings, the LA right-hander has compiled a 5.50 ERA and has given up 21 hits in 18 innings. He hasn't been as sharp as usual nor as he been as strong as usual. As for the Cardinals Adam Wainwright, he allowed 2 homers in his return to the rotation on Monday and that was against a Pirates team that certainly has not been swinging the bats like this Dodgers team has. Los Angeles, after yesterday's blowout win over the Cards, has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game their last 11 games. As for the Cardinals sticks, they have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 11 games. Only 38 of the Dodgers 91 games versus right-handed starters this season have stayed under the total. St Louis is 8-3-1 to the over, including 3-0 this season, in games where they are a home underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Cardinals enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees rolled 11-0 yesterday. They have been crushing Blue Jays pitching including now having scored an average of 9.8 runs in their last 4 games versus Toronto. As you would expect, all 4 of those games went over the total. The Yanks sticks should certainly stay hot today as they face a struggling Sean Reid-Foley going for the Jays in this one. When he faced the Yankees last month he gave up 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. In his most recent start (last Saturday versus Indians) he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 2/3 innings. You can see why struggles are expected for Reid-Foley here and lets also not forget that Jays relievers have also been getting lit up by Yankees hitters in recent meetings. As for Yanks starter CC Sabathia, I am well aware that he has some decent numbers in recent starts against Toronto. However, his recent form has not been too impressive. Sabathia has a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 44-25 in Blue Jays road games this season. Also, when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, Toronto has gone 13-4 to the over this year. After allowing 10 or more runs in a game this season, the Jays over is 8-3. Expect another high-scoring game this afternoon in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know the White Sox, after a pretty strong run at the plate, have cooled off recently. However, the fact is that the Orioles Luis Ortiz should certainly bring out the best in them. This will be his first ever start at the MLB level and, in fact, he has only made 6 starts at the AAA level in the minors and he got hit at a .274 clip in those outings. Making the jump essentially from AA ball to the MLB level is a big jump and Ortiz has made one appearance at the MLB level and he recorded only 2 outs while being charged with 3 earned runs so he has a 40.50 ERA with the O's thus far. As for the Baltimore sticks, they have been much stronger at home than on the road in recent weeks and they should pound James Shields. The veteran right-hander gets the call for the White Sox here and he is 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road this season. Also, Shields has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. The over is 14-7 in ChiSox Friday games this season. Also, when the Pale Hose are facing a team with a losing record, the over is 25-12 their last 37 games. The Orioles are 4-2 in their last 6 home games and certainly tend to hit better at home. Adding to the value with this totals plays is that both of these bullpens (Chicago and O's) rank among the worst in the majors this season. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this one! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - The calendar says it is mid-September but it certainly won't feel like it today in Denver. High temperatures are topping out in the 90s and I expect hot bats to resume their work at Coors Field this evening as well. Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are primed to have big performances at the plate this evening. The over was 5-0 in Arizona's 5 games prior to yesterday's under. The Diamonbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. The Rockies have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in going 7-3 their last 10 games. Jon Gray gets the start for Colorado here and he has just 6 strikeouts in his last 3 starts and also walked 5 batters in his most recent start. He also has given up 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Dbacks. Arizona starts Patrick Corbin tonight and the southpaw has given up 12 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 10 innings versus the Rockies. His last two road starts were strong but those were in pitcher friendly venues. Corbin had allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his 4 prior road starts and also labored in his most recent start at Colorado. Look for the over to improve to 24-16 in Arizona's road games with a money line range of -125 to +125 this season. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams as the Dbacks have averaged 5.8 runs per game their last 5 versus Colorado and the Rockies, prior to yesterday's quiet night, had averaged 7.8 runs per game in their 4 prior games versus Arizona. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are one of the hottest teams in the majors and, of course, rolling with momentum after rallying in the bottom of the 9th for last night's 6-5 win. Tampa Bay has now won 8 of its last 9 games and the Rays have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak! As for the Indians, they have have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 7 games. This pitching match-up looks conducive to another high-scoring game tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has a 5.83 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Tribe have not recorded a single under in any of his last 4 starts. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he got destroyed by the Blue Jays in the 1st inning of his last start. Though he'll certainly perform better than that outing (didn't even get out of first inning) here, I do expect the young right-hander to still see some negative "carry-over effects" from that poor outing at Toronto. His prior start was a beauty against these same Indians but now he gives the dangerous another look at him less than 2 weeks later. That usually doesn't bode well for young starting pitchers and that is especially true when they're coming off of an outing like Glasnow just had at the Rogers Centre. Look for the over to improve to 14-7 in Cleveland's Tuesday games this season while the Rays over streak reaches 5 in a row with another high-scoring affair tonight. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - The Reds Cody Reed will be making his 15th career start for Cincinnati. The Reds are 0-14 so far in those starts! Of course that is why the Dodgers are a big favorite tonight and I do expect them to hit Reed well. However, don't be surprised if Cincinnati also hits well tonight. Yes, LA's Alex Wood has been pitching very well but the Reds (.270 batting average) are actually one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season against left-handed pitching. As for the Dodgers, their .440 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks them 2nd in the National League as they are certainly one of the top slugging teams in the majors when away from pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Reed gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings at Pittsburgh last week and he is facing a Los Angeles team that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Reds lineup also comes into this game hot at the plate as they just finished up taking 2 of the final 3 games of a 4-game set with the Padres thanks to averaging 8 runs per game in those 3 games! The over is 11-6 in the Dodgers last 17 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-5 in Reds Monday games this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Even though it will be a cool, fall-like evening at Fenway Park tonight, I like the over in this series finale based on the pitching match-up. The Astros Dallas Keuchel got rocked for 8 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he pitched at Fenway Park. Overall, each of his last two starts versus Boston have resulted in an over. As for the Red Sox pitching, their bullpen has been struggling in recent weeks. That could be a factor here because I expect starting pitcher Rick Porcello to struggle some too. The right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Astros. Not only does that hold significance here, note that Houston has won 7 straight games and is averaging 6 runs per game. In other words, this is a very confident Astros lineup that will be stepping into the batters box versus Porcello tonight. Though the Red Sox bats have been quieter than usual so far in this series, they still have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 4 home games. Boston's issue will be the fact that Porcello has not pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts and that means a struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early tonight. Only 3 of Porcello's 12 home starts (25%) have resulted in an under this season! Though this total may drop to an 8.5 it will likely remain at a 9 in many spots and the over is a long-term 47-23 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite yesterday's result, the over is still a solid 7-2 this season in Red Sox home games where their money line ranges from a +125 to a -125. That over trend resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total (of the Week) Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - The Indians only scored 3 runs yesterday but they did have 10 hits in the game but simply didn't hit well in clutch situations and they left 9 men on base in that one though had 10 opportunities at the plate with men in scoring position. I expect the Tribe will fare much better against the Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio Thursday. As for the Toronto lineup, they exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's series finale with the Rays and they now face an inconsistent Shane Bieber. The Cleveland right-hander has a 5.91 ERA in his last 4 starts and gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start. As for the Jays Gaviglio, he is 1-4 with a 5.61 ERA since the All Star break. In this stretch, opponents have hit .304 against him. Also, keep in mind, 5 of Gaviglio's 8 starts since the All Star break came against teams with a losing break and 4 of the 5 were against the last place Orioles and Royals. He is facing a much tougher lineup Thursday and I expect the Indians to get to him early and often. In Thursday games this season Toronto is 9-4 to the over and Cleveland is 8-4 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates Jameson Taillon has been pitching very well so, at first glance, one might be uncomfortable with predicting the Reds to do some damage here at the plate. However, a big key is that Cincinnati is facing him for a fourth time this season. Taillon shut down the Reds when they first saw him but that was back in early April. In the two times Cincinnati has faced him since, Taillon has given up 7 earned runs on 14 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. Look for the Reds to get to the Pirates right-hander here. The big key to this play however is the fact that the Pittsburgh bats should absolutely crush the Reds Homer Bailey. The Cincinnati right-hander has miraculously allowed just 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he continues to be hit hard. In fact, Bailey has now allowed 46 hits in the 24 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. Yes, you read that right, the Reds right-hander is allowing an average of nearly 2 hits per inning! Bailey has a 6.93 ERA during this 5-start stretch and facing the Pirates is unlikely to help him. Bailey has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus Pittsburgh. More of the same expected here and we'll take advantage of a low total posted on this one thanks to Taillon being on the mound for the Pirates. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has been throwing very well. However, he is facing a surprisingly red hot Royals team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and has scored at least 5 runs in all 9 of those games. That said, Kansas City is very likely to at least do some damage at the plate in this game. Couple that with the fact that the Indians should absolutely annihilate KC's Danny Duffy here and you have the right recipe for an easy over. The Royals left-hander is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA versus the Indians this season. Each of his last two starts against the Indians have flown over the total. As for Clevinger, though he is pitching well of late (including his most recent start versus KC), the right-hander has allowed a total of 18 hits in the 15 innings spanning his two home starts versus the Royals this season. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Kansas City entered yesterday's action having had just two unders in their 10 prior games. The Indians have averaged 5.5 runs per game at home this season and they'll bounce back after yesterday's disappointing effort and that should send this game easily flying over the total as, keep in mind, these two teams also have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - Both these teams were involved with games yesterday that went over the total and I look for another one today as now they are matched up on a very warm early September afternoon in Cleveland. The weather will certainly be favorable for the hitters and there is no denying that the Royals are red hot at the plate right now. With their 9-1 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot stretch of play. As for the Indians, they've scored an average of 5.4 run per game in their last 7 games. Not great but also not bad and the fact is they should light up the Royals Jake Junis this afternoon. The Indians have had Junis' number as he has been rocked for 12 earned runs in 11 innings against the Tribe this season. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko and he has given up 7 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Not only are those numbers unimpressive, he has walked 7 in those two short outings which is also a concern. The way the Royals are swinging the bats, Plutko is likely to get roughed up early and often. At the same time, the Indians bats continue their mastery of Junis' offerings and the result is a slugfest this afternoon at Progressive Field. Kansas City is 13-7 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Indians are 13-6 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - When it comes to playing overs in MLB one of the "systems" I like to use is grabbing the value when a home team has a pitcher that is likely to struggle on the mound while a "top tier" pitcher is going for the away team. The reason for this is because teams do tend to hit better at home but we get a little extra value because the away team has an "ace" going. That is the case in this match-up Saturday because the Indians Shane Bieber has certainly been nothing special this season and is likely to get pounded here. As for the Rays Blake Snell, he is having a fantastic season but he is facing a very tough Indians lineup at Progressive Field in an evening game that will have summer-like weather by Cleveland standards. Temperatures today are expect to top out in the mid-80s with winds out of the south (which means blowing out at this ballpark). Combining these factors with the low total posted on this game and you have great line value here. The over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games where their money line is in a range from -125 to +125. The Rays, prior to yesterday's shutout loss here, had averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their 8 prior games. The Tribe have now won 4 of their last 5 and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this hot streak. The Indians Bieber has an 8-2 record this season but has truly been so fortunate. In July he compiled a 7.33 ERA. In his last 3 starts here in August he has a 5.63 ERA. Yesterday's under was just the 2nd for the Rays in their last 8 games and I look for trending toward the over to resume immediately today. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:15 ET - If you look at opponents batting average against, these two bullpens are ranked 29th and 30th out of all 30 MLB teams. That bullpen will be an issue today for both clubs because there is certainly reason to believe each of these starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Orioles and the Royals lineups have both been red hot. Baltimore enters this game having averaging scoring 9.7 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays! As for Kansas City, they have won 4 of their last 5 games and KC has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the process. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium on a warm evening in Kansas City tonight. It is the type of weather this evening that most certainly will favor the hitters. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals and his ERA has been good in recent starts but he has allowed 13 hits in just 10 innings spanning his last two stats and the O's are swinging hot lumber right now. As for the Orioles Andrew Cashner, he is 0-2 in his last two starts and has been roughed up for 9 runs (8 earned) on 16 hits in just 13 innings of work. Only 9 of 27 (33%) Royals games this month have resulted in an under! Also, only 9 of KC's last 27 (33%) games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - I am a well aware of the fact that the Yankees bats have suddenly gone quiet in recent games. However, that is a big part of the reason this is a contrarian play as the total opened up at a 9.5 and then dropped to an 8.5 as of game day morning. We're getting great line value here because I expect the Bronx Bombers to pound the Tigers Francisco Liriano. Also, don't forget that behind Liriano is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. As for the Detroit lefty, he is 0-3 with an 8.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Yankees counter with JA Happ and I know the lefty has had good numbers recently. However, Happ has faced the Tigers twice already this season (once each in June and July) and he has been rocked. The Yanks southpaw has given up 11 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning those two starts. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Detroit. Also, the over is 2-0 in his last two starts overall. The over is also 2-0 in Liriano's last two starts overall. Only 1 of the Tigers last 7 games has resulted in an under. As a big home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, the Yankees are on a long-term 11-5 run to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 6:35 ET - Unseasonably warm weather in the northeast right now and so it is very hitter-friendly conditions that greet the hitters again tonight at Fenway Park. Last night's game totaled 15 runs and I would not be surprised to see a similar total result tonight. The over is 4-0 in the Marlins last 4 road games. The over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Marlins road games when Miami is an underdog price at +250 or more. As a home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, Boston is 3-1 to the over this season. Miami is 2-0 to the over in Trevor Richards last 3 starts as he has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.87 ERA in those outings. David Price has been pitching well for Boston but the Marlins have erupted for at least a dozen hits in 5 of their last 8 games and they stay hot at the plate tonight. This is a contrarian play because Price has been in great current form and most will be scared off of playing over the big total posted on this game but this absolutely should be another slugfest as the Marlins also take advantage of facing southpaw starters on back to back nights. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Watching Lance Lynn closely, it was evident that the Yankees right-hander was getting better results than he deserved early on. As expected, his "luck" has run out and he has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two outings. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that is on fire. With their 6-2 win last night Chicago has now scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 15 games! As for the Yankees lineup, they had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games before a dismal showing at the plate last night. Of course each team getting to 5 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 6-5 final and 11 runs scored. I expect to see at least a dozen runs in this one as the Yankees feast on James Shields' offerings. The veteran right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.04 ERA on the road this season and got crushed for 7 earned runs in his most recent start. He allowed 3 homers in that outing and now faces the Bronx Bombers. Yes the Yanks are still missing a few guys (on the DL) but as you can see they had still been scoring plenty of runs prior to last night's defeat. Look for New York to bounce back tonight as this one turns into a slugfest. Prior to last night's games staying just under the total, the White Sox were on a 10-3-1 to the over and the Yankees were on a 6-3 run to the over. That type of trending resumes in a big way tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's high-scoring win at Toronto, the over is 8-4 in the Phillies last 12 games. The Nationals are off of a blowout road win over the Mets yesterday and the over is now 9-4 in Washington's last 13 games. Not only are both teams trending over of late, it is also likely that Stephen Strasburg and Zach Eflin are going to each struggle in this one. The over is 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts as he has compiled an 11.81 ERA during this rough stretch. Now he faces the same team that just hammered him last week so this is not a good situation for him. The same holds true for Eflin as he just faced the Nats last week and he was hit very hard and lasted just 3 and 1/3 innings in that start. The over is 3-0 in Eflin's last 3 home starts. Also, the Phils right-hander has faced the Nationals twice this season and has allowed 16 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. Suffice to say, they see his offerings quite well! Strasburg does have good long-term success against the Phillies but he is not in good current form right now as he also allowed 4 earned runs to the Mets in the start before he was roughed up by Philadelphia. Additional value here is based on the Phillies recent bullpen struggles and the Nationals bullpen having been thinned out by trades and injuries since mid-season. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - Of course Zack Greinke is a fantastic pitcher. However, that is also why we're seeing such a low total posted on this game. There is great value here because Greinke will be facing a solid American League lineup. The Mariners are hitting .264 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, Seattle starter Mike Leake, prior to this season, spent his entire career in the National League. That does two things for us here. First off, the Diamondbacks lineup has a lot of familiarity with him as a result. Secondly, Leake is actually use to handling the bat and he actually is hitting about .200 in his career which is not bad at all for a pitcher. The issue for Leake today won't be at the plate however, it will be on the mound. The Mariners right-hander has a 4.96 ERA in his starts against the Diamondbacks in his career and he has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts against Arizona. The Dbacks are certainly not an overly imposing lineup but they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Leake. Also, the Diamondbacks .326 on base percentage in home games this season ranks them in the top 5 in the NL. These teams combined for 22 hits in yesterday's 10-inning affair so it was a bit of a "fluke" that it stayed under the total. The over is still 6-2 in Seattle's last 8 games. The Mariners are a long-term 34-18 to the over in interleague games. Also, the Dbacks 10 hits yesterday means they have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also averaging 10 hits per game during this 7-game stretch. More of the same on Sunday but, this time, more runs too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Afternoon Annhilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The ball carries better in day games at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip this afternoon in San Francisco. Both lineups got back on track in yesterday's high-scoring game which flew over the total. Based on these factors as well as the fact that each of today's starting pitchers are likely to struggle, you have an ideal set up for another one flying over the total this afternoon. The Rangers Martin Perez has given up 53 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings of work. The Giants Andrew Suarez has only one good start in his last 7 outings! The San Francisco left-hander, in the other 6 starts, has been rocked for 27 earned runs on 44 hits in 29 and 1/3 innings. You can see why, even though this inter-league match-up is in a National League park, this total is still set far too low. Time to take advantage! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - A number of key factors here have led to exceptional line value with the over in this one. High temperatures today will up near 90 degrees in the Denver area. The wind will be switching around from the east to the south right around the time this one gets underway and, though not a significant factor, the wind will be a help rather than a hindrance on a hitter-friendly night at Coors Field. Another key factor is the Cardinals just faced Antonio Senzatela earlier this month and the Rockies just faced Miles Mikolas earlier this month. Getting a quick "second look" and also this time at hitter-friendly Coors Field is most certainly an edge for these lineups. The third key factor is that Senzatela just recently returned from a trip on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander only struck out 1 batter in his first start back which was versus Atlanta Saturday. Senzatela was not nearly as dominant in that start as he had been prior to the trip on the DL but the markets haven't picked up on this yet. Also, Mikolas did have a good strikeout game in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Mikolas had struck out just 13 batters in 27 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. With the Rockies lineup seeing him for the 2nd time in a span of just 3 weeks, I expect plenty of contact from the hitters in this one and that leads to trouble for Mikolas in this hitters park! Look for the over to improve to 9-4 in Mikolas' road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - As yesterday's results came in, and knowing this match-up was coming up today, I knew I was going to be releasing a very strong play on this one. Having been burned by the A's game yesterday (my first premium pick loss this week) I am ready for redemption today thanks to the absolutely perfect situation here. The Twins game did go over the total yesterday but, surprisingly, Minnesota scored only 3 runs. Why is that a surprise? The red hot Minnesota offense had scored 5 runs or more in 8 straight game! The over is now 6-2 in the Twins last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. As for the A's, they just couldn't get the clutch hits they needed yesterday and had a rare poor game at the plate. However, prior to the 4-2 loss yesterday, Oakland had gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in those road games. The key to the value in today's match-up is that Trevor Cahill is fantastic when at home but atrocious on the road. The Athletics right-hander has just 1 win in his 7 road starts this season while compiling a 6.62 ERA. Last year he went winless on the road in 14 games (9 starts) and compiled a 7.07 ERA! As for the Twins Kohl Stewart, he is a 23-year old rookie that has struggled in each of his first two starts. Worse yet for him is that those two starts were both against a bad Tigers team. He'll face a much more imposing lineup in this match-up. In the minors this season Stewart was hit at a .301 clip! The point is that this young righty is just not ready yet and with the A's angry after yesterday's loss and very focused as a result, they will pound him early and often in this one. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason but now has dropped to a 9.5 and this is offering even more value to the over in what should be a slugfest. As a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175, Oakland is 8-2-1 to the over this season and I look for another one here in this ideal situation with good weather in the Twin Cities tonight too. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET - The Rangers have yet to score a run in the first two games of this series. That said, it may seem a bit brazen to be going with the over in this match-up but my contrarian theories have been among the most successful in my handicapping arsenal. The key here is really all about the match-ups. In this case you have two starting pitchers, Mike Minor and Edwin Jackson, whom truly have pitched a little "over their heads" this season. Couple that with the Rangers struggles at the plate in this series and, sure enough, an opener of 9 on this total has moved down to an 8.5 as of early game day morning. Of course this is leading to extra value on the over here because both of these starters are likely to get rocked. The A's Jackson gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his start at Texas last month. Jackson gave up a pair of homers in his most recent start (versus Houston Friday) and he's opposed by a hurler, Minor, whom gave up a pair of homers in just 5 innings when he faced Oakland last month. Also, the Rangers southpaw missed his most recent start in the rotation because of an issue with back tightness. I expect the back to be in the "back" of his mind today too and it could definitely impact his effectiveness. With the wind blowing out toward right center and temperatures nearing 70 degrees coupled with the fact that the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland, you have all the right ingredients for some "healthy" scoring in this one! Note that the Rangers Minor has a 6.48 ERA in road games this season. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in those 6 victories. They stay hot at the plate Wednesday but the Texas bats join the party in this one too! 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up should lead to plenty of runs Tuesday. The Reds Sal Romano has struggled in the majority of his starts since mid-May. During this rough 3-month stretch, the Cincinnati right-hander has made 15 starts and the over is 11-3-1 in those 15 outings! The Brewers are very familiar with Romano and he would probably rather face anyone other than Milwaukee as he is 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in his five career starts versus them. As for Brewers starter Junior Guerra, he is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Though the Milwaukee right-hander pitched well in the no-decision versus Cincinnati, he certainly struggled in the other two starts. Guerra allowed 12 earned runs in just 10 innings spanning those two starts. Overall, Guerra has allowed 6 homers in his last last 15 innings versus the Reds! The over is 2-1 in those 3 starts and also he enters this start having gone 2-0 to the over in his last two outings as he allowed 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings combined versus the Padres and Cubs. Guerra has given up 3 homers in his last two starts at Miller Park. The over is 19-9 in the Reds last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 13-6 in Milwaukee's last 19 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Brewers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Look for more of the same on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to an 8 as of early game day morning. Yes, I understand that both of these pitchers are solid starters. I also am aware that it will be rather cool for an August evening in Boston and the wind won't necessarily hurt us but also won't help us. However, the fact is that this is still a very hitter-friendly ballpark and it is still a match-up featuring two very potent lineups! That said, getting a total of 8 with these two teams squaring off at Fenway Park is a great value. Trust me, the Red Sox are happy to see the Rays leave town as their pitching staff (wealth of relieving talent too) can be so frustrating to face. Look for Boston to bounce back big after yesterday's shutout loss. I also like having the over here after losing with the Indians over yesterday. That total was an 8.5 and the game was 8-0 Cleveland after just 4 innings and lost! Tough beat but it happens and we turn the page to a new day and I look for the Indians to stay hot at the plate. The Tribe have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game their last 7 games. The Red Sox are 13-3 in August and are ranked #1 out of all 30 teams with a .500 slugging percentage this month! Boston is scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game this month! Cleveland's Corey Kluber has a 4.50 ERA in his last 4 road starts. The over is 16-4-1 in Kluber's last 21 starts! Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 21 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Indians and gave up 3 homers to Cleveland the last time he faced them. The Red Sox right-hander has a 6.85 ERA in his last 4 home starts. The over is 12-5-1 in Porcello's last 18 starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks fell short 7-6 yesterday but they continue to love hitting Padres pitching. Arizona has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 games against San Diego. Also, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-1 in the 6 games played at Petco Park this season! I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Not only does the ball carry better in day games in San Diego, we're also getting a low total to work with because Zack Greinke is on the mound. Now, don't get me wrong, Greinke is a fine pitcher but there is no doubt that he is more comfortable on his own mound in comparison with enemy mounds. This season opponents are hitting 55 points higher against Greinke when he is on the road and his ERA is 1.36 runs higher when away from home. This is not a "one year fluke" either as last season he went 13-1 at home but only 4-6 on the road where opponents hit 47 points higher against him. The real key to the value here is that Arizona could very well get this game over the total all by themselves. As noted above, they love hitting Padres pitching and the other key here is that Padres rookie starter Brett Kennedy has been absolutely crushed in each of his first two starts this season. Both of those games flew over the total and the over is now 9-4 in the Padres last 13 games. Though Petco Park has a reputation as a pitchers park the markets tend to over-adjust for this and that is why the over is 37-24 in Padres home games this season. Also, only 6 of Arizona's last 17 games versus teams with a losing record have resulted in an under. In other words, you can see why plenty of runs can be expected again this afternoon at Petco Park. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Twins Kohl Stewart has a really tough assignment here. Not only is he making just the 2nd MLB appearance of his career, he has to face the same team he made his debut against last week. Giving the Tigers another look at him is unlikely to do him any favors as they were already "dialed in" on him in his debut. Stewart allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings. Also, in over 100 innings of work in the minors this season, Stewart got hit at a .301 clip. Simply put, he is struggling as he has moved up to facing higher-caliber hitters. As for his counterpart in this match-up, the Tigers Ryan Carpenter is also likely to struggle. The Detroit southpaw went 2-8 with a 5.00 ERA and a .308 batting average in the minors this season. Carpenter has, of course, found major league hitters to be just as tough to get out! The lefty has a 6.39 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 4 MLB appearances (3 starts) this season. You can see exactly why I am expecting both of these hurlers to struggle. As for the relievers behind them, these teams' bullpen ERA cumulative on the season ranks them each in the bottom third of the majors! The over is 3-0 in the Twins last 3 games and there have been 0 unders in Detroit's last 5 games. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Ryne Stanek gets the starts for the Rays but, of course, Tampa Bay uses the "full game bullpen" approach when he is on the mound so he only goes 1 or 2 innings anyway. The reason I like the over so much here is that the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Tampa's relievers at this late point in the season and being one of the best home hitting teams in the majors means we should see plenty of runs from Boston here. Of course Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue and also favorable weather is expected tonight as well. As for the Red Sox starter, Brian Johnson, he has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The lefty has allowed 5 homers in those two starts and the Rays swung the bats much better in yesterday's game versus the Yankees than what the final score would indicate. That said, this one has "slugfest" written all over it. The Red Sox averaged 7.2 runs per game in their 9-game road trip that wrapped up on Wednesday. Only 18 of Boston's last 47 games when playing after a day off have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Johnson's last 3 starts and to improve to 5-2 on the season in Stanek's starts away on natural fields this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (Game 2 of double header) - The Phillies used a ton of bullpen in last night's win over the Red Sox as starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez was ineffective and had to make an early exit. With that said, and with a rookie starting Game 1 of the double-header today, the Phillies bulllpen is likely to be missing some arms (or at the very least have some tired arms) by the time Game 2 of the double-header rolls around tonight. Philadelphia will be working on its 3rd game in a span of 24 hours. I know Zach Eflin has put up some solid numbers this season and that is why the move for a very short demotion to minors wan't really a demotion...it was just because of roster reasons after some recent trades. However, I do feel this could effect Eflin's effectiveness due to the "mental aspect" of pitching. Also, his last 3 starts have come against the Marlins, Reds, and Padres. Those are the 3 last place teams at the very bottom of each division in the National League! Now I know the Mets also don't have that impressive of a record but New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 7 games and I do feel Eflin is going to struggle after the "demotion that wasn't" per se! As for Mets starter Steven Matz, struggles are also likely as he had a strained flexor-pronator muscle in his throwing arm and has been awful recently. In his 3 starts since the All Star break the southpaw has a 12.34 ERA! The over is 4-0 in the last 4 starts Matz has made and, per all of the above, another one is very likely here. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:35 ET - The total on this one has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 and I am well aware of yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 A's win as well as the fact that Oakland has been trending under of late. That said, I am going contrarian here and going with the over. For one things, the Mariners have been trending over of late. For another, the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland Coliseum. Additionally, I am not that impressed with either one of the starting pitchers taking the mound today. The Mariners Mike Leake has a low ERA over his last 3 starts but he has allowed 25 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Also, in his last 3 road starts, Leake has allowed 25 hits in just 16 innings of work! The Athletics should get to him early and often. The issue for Oakland however will be their own starting pitcher. Southpaw Brett Anderson gets the call here and the lefty is facing a Mariners team that is 4th in the AL with a .261 batting average versus left-handed pitching. Anderson has a "decent" ERA this season but he continues to allow opponents to be a hitting machine. Note that since his "respectable" 2015 campaign with the Dodgers, Anderson has given up 154 hits in 114 and 1/3 innings. That means he gives up about 4 hits every 3 innings and this a 3 year trend! Opponents are hitting well over .300 against him during this 3-year stretch and I love the value we're getting with the low total here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tigers starter Blaine Hardy gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent start. Though he was pitching better prior to the tough at Los Angeles against the Angels, the White Sox will prove not to be a good match-up for him. Though his numbers show good starts against them this season, keep in mind players change teams in today's MLB more frequently than years gone by. There are a number of hitters on the White Sox roster whom have enjoyed success against Hardy. Chicago has scored 12 runs on 20 hits in their past two games. Also, they have scored 13 runs in their past two road games and are 3-1 their last 4 away from home. Despite yesterday's 9-5 loss, they carry some confidence stepping up to the plate in this one. The issue for the White Sox however will be the fact that their own starting pitcher is also likely to struggle. Lucas Giolito has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Sox lefty has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 14 starts. He is facing a Tigers team that ranks 8th out of all 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws this season. Also, Giolito has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts versus Detroit this season. The over is 14-4 in Chicago's last 18 games against teams with a losing record. Also, when the White Sox enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 22-7 this season! The over is 3-1 in Hardy's last 4 home starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Many will be expecting the Nationals to be flat here after the demoralizing 2-out 2-strike grand slam that turned a 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. However, I disagree. I think the Nats are going to be very feisty here and I expect them to enjoy success at the plate against Miles Mikolas. The issue for Washington is that their own starter, Tom Milone, can't be trusted here. Hence, a big play on the over for me. First off, as for Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander has been more hittable lately than he was earlier this season. He has given up 26 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. As you can see, Mikolas certainly has not been unhittable of late! As for Milone, the Nationals southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his only road start with the Nats he allowed 8 hits in just 5 innings. Look for the Cardinals to do plenty of damage at the plate in a game that should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Milone's starts. Also, the Cards are 15-8 to the over in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Braves crushed the Brewers 10-1 yesterday and are also one of the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. In other words, the Atlanta bats should absolutely stay hot today as they take advantage of facing southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers lefty shows some good numbers in terms of his stats but, he has had limited action and will be exposed here. Other than a superb start against the Dodgers Miley's other outings have seen him allow 13 walks and 20 hits (total of 33 baserunners) in 21 and 1/3 innings! The start against the Dodgers was the only one of Miley's last 5 outings that have stayed under the total. The over is 7-1-1 in Milwaukee's games this month and they should pound Julio Teheran. The Braves, overall, have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last 6 games and Teheran is likely to struggle here. He has lost command of his slider and walks have often been an issue for him of late plus, overall, his ERA is north of 5 over his past ten starts! Teheran allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings when he most recently faced the Brewers. The Brewers had averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 8 games prior to yesterday's loss. They'll bounce back here and the Braves bats (7.5 runs per game last 4 at home) stay red hot. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Ervin Santana has not looked right since he returned from the disabled list. The numbers don't lie and the velocity is down on his pitches. Also, he has allowed 20 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts. In his last two starts Santana has given up 4 homers. Speaking of problems with giving up the long ball, the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last 3 starts! The Detroit right-hander has a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts while Minesota's Santana has a 6.14 ERA in his 3 starts. Neither pitcher in good current form and both of these hurlers also have a match-up concern here. I say that because Zimmerman has allowed 15 earned runs in just 12 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Twins! As for Santana, he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 21 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Tigers. The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts against Minnesota and 2-0 in Santana's last 2 starts against Detroit. The Twins enters this game on a run of 5-2 to the over after yesterday's game at Cleveland flew over the total. Minnesota is a long-term 10-7-72 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. Both of these bullpens rank in the lower third of the majors too! The over is a long-term 40-23 in Twins Friday games including 11-4 this season! The Tigers have had just 18 unders the last 50 times (36%) that they were playing after a day off. Plenty of offense in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tyler Anderson has trended under this season in his home starts. The Dodgers Ross Stripling has trended under this season in his road starts. As a result, you have a situation where the betting markets and public or square bettors are going to help us get some additional value here. That's because both of these pitchers are likely to get hammered here but yet this total is holding at a 10.5 as of gameday morning. Of course 10.5 may seem like a big number but not for a mid-August game at hitter-friendly Coors Field with two very strong lineups. Keys to the value here include the fact that the Dodgers Stripling is returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injury to the big toe on his right foot. Being a right-hander, that is is the foot he pushes off with and certainly could still be "on his mind" in his first start back. Stripling has allowed 9 earned runs in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts since the All Star break. He allowed 4 homers in those two outings! The Rockies Anderson has also struggled recently with 11 earned runs allowed in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Like Stripling, Anderson has also allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. Stripling has a respectable ERA in his 3 career starts against the Rockies but the only 2 where he pitched more than 2 innings saw him allow 9 hits in 6 innings each time! In other words, he hasn't fooled many Colorado sticks and a "break through" against him is imminent. As for Anderson against the Dodgers, he had a great start at Dodger Stadium this season but, prior to that he was rocked for 9 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against Los Angeles and that included one at Coors Field. He gave up 3 homers in those 7 and 1/3 innings. The over is 7-2-1 (78%) this season in Anderson's starts where is Rockies are an underdog and they are a home dog here. Look for a slugfest to erupt per the above angles! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Tom Milone is coming off of a great start but he faced the Mets. That outing has to be taken with a grain of salt. Now the southpaw faces a Braves team that ranks among the top teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is hitting .267 this season against lefties with a .450 slugging percentage! As for the Nationals, they are one of the top hitting teams in the National League when on their home field as Washington has a solid .263 batting average at home. Though the Braves Mike Foltneywicz has great overall numbers, the right-hander was hit hard at Washington late last month and has an ugly 1.78 WHIP in his last two starts at Nationals Park. Milone's start prior to shutting down the Mets saw him allow 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work versus another weak team, the Marlins. That said, he is likely to struggle badly against a Braves team battling it out with the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. Foltneywicz had a solid start in his most recent outing but this was against a weak Mets team. Prior to that he had some struggles in 4 straight outings and compiled a 6.94 ERA during this 4-start stretch! There have been only 2 unders in his last 8 starts. Look for the "over trend" to resume Wednesday as he and his counterpart on the hill are each likely to get roughed up. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's 2-0 Rockies win continued a rare stretch of low-scoring games at Coors Field. Look for normalcy to return tonight in Denver. The wind will be blowing out and I look for both pitchers to get hit hard. Colorado's Chad Bettis hasn't pitched in over a month and his ERA is 8.75 in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Also, the over is 5-1 overall in the last 6 starts Bettis has made. Also, in his 7 starts since late May, Bettis has compiled an 8.15 ERA in those 7 outings. Bettis has a 7.45 ERA in his last two home starts against the Pirates. He'll be opposed by Jameson Taillon tonight. The Pittsburgh right-hander did have a solid start against the Rockies last season but that was NOT at Coors Field! Taillon will be making his first ever start in the Mile High City and this venue is not known for being kind to first-time starters. Also, he has a 4.12 ERA in night games in his career as he has been much better in day games. The over is 8-4 in Taillon's last 12 starts overall. Only 25 of the Pirates 68 night games have stayed under the total this season. With both Taillon and Bettis likely to get roughed up, this one does not stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - Lance Lynn makes his first start for the Yankees. Though he was impressive out of the bullpen in a 4 and 1/3 innings stint coming out of the New York bullpen, Lynn faced a struggling Orioles lineup. While the White Sox certainly are also a bad team, they have won 4 straight games plus they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 8-3 in Lynn's 11 road starts this season as he has compiled an ugly 7.08 ERA when pitching on enemy turf. Also, he has given up 16 hits in 11 innings in his last two starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Chicago's Dylan Covey has struggled badly over his last eight outings. The White Sox right-hander has compiled an 8.68 ERA and ugly 1-6 record in these 8 starts. Covey has allowed 46 hits plus he has walked 22 in the 37 1/3 innings spanning these outings. Covey got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start versus the Yankees. The over is 4-2 in his 6 home starts this season. The White Sox enter this game on an 8-3 run to the over in their last 11 games. Look for the Yankees over to improve to 14-8 the last 22 times they've been a road favorite of -175 or more. The Yanks bullpen has had some issues recently (again last night too) and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game during their current 5 game losing streak. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and he has produced two straight scoreless outings. However, he faced the Orioles and Rays! Now the Yankees right-hander faces a Red Sox team that has crushed him for 10 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. Tanaka allowed a pair of homers in each of those starts versus Boston and both of those outings occurred this season. Speaking of match-up problems here, Red Sox southpaw David Price is a horrible 2-6 with an 8.43 ERA in his 9 starts against the Yankees since he came to Boston in 2016. Price has been absolutely demolished by New York's bats this season as he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings. The lefty has allowed 6 homers in those two short outings! Yes the past two games of this series have been low-scoring but I would not be surprised to see this one turn into a high-scoring game like we saw in the first game of this 4-game set. Weather conditions at Fenway Park Sunday evening will also be ideal for an over. The over is 10-5 in Tanaka's last 15 starts. The over is 4-1 this season in Red Sox games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. Look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners are looking to avoid suffering a 4-game sweep on their home field at the hands of the Blue Jays. While I do trust the Seattle bats to come to life against a sub-par pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, I also expect the Toronto bats to stay red hot against Mike Leake. As for the Blue Jays Gaviglio, the right-hander has an 8.41 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is 5-2 in the 7 road starts that Gaviglio has made this season as he has compiled an ugly 8.78 ERA away from home. As for the Mariners Leake, he has a mediocre 4.78 ERA in his last 5 starts. The right-hander's ERA during this stretch could easily be higher as he has been rocked for 38 hits in 26 and 1/3 innings of work. Hence the value here as this is unlikely to be a good start for Leake. The Blue Jays saw him earlier this season plus they come into this game with a red hot lineup! Toronto has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is still 10-3 in their last 13 games despite yesterday's game staying under the total. The over is 11-5 in Blue Jays Sunday games this season and they are 17-7 to the over this season as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Mariners have stayed under the total in each of Leake's last two home starts but previously Seattle was 7-3 to the over in his home starts this season. The Mariners haven't stayed under in 3 straight home starts for Leake this season and I don't see that trend changing here either! Look for plenty of runs here and take advantage of the drop from 9 to 8.5 runs on this posted total. 10* OVER the total in Seattle 

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - Austin Gomber had a successful outing in his first ever MLB start a week and a half ago. However, he primarily had been used out of the bullpen at the MLB level prior to that outing and one good start doesn't mean he is just going to come out and keep dominating. He goes from facing the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds to now facing a red-hot Pirates team that became buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline as they have been so hot that they got back into the playoff picture. With yesterday's win the Pirates are now 15-4 their last 19 games. However, I am playing the over rather than the Bucs here because Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova is likely to get roughed up just like Gomber is for the Cards. Nova has a low ERA in his last 3 starts but he has been fortunate as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two home starts. Overall his K numbers have been down and Nova has given up 13 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his last two home starts. Also, the Pirates right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus St Louis as they've gotten to him for 19 hits (including 3 homers) and 6 walks in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The fact that Nova has trended under in his home starts this season and the fact that Gomber had a great first MLB start is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 13-6 in St Louis' last 19 games. The over is 14-7 in the Cardinals last 21 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 22-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is also 19-10 to the over in games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh early Saturday evening

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams have been knocking the cover off of the ball of late. The Orioles have notched at least 14 hits in 5 of their last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged scoring 9.2 runs per game during this stretch. The Rangers have pounded out double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games after notching 18 hits in last night's game. Texas has averaged scoring 7.7 runs in their last 9 games. The over is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games since the All Star break. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games. Even though Ariel Jurado is off of a strong start in his most recent game this will be just the 3rd start of his MLB career. In the minors he has been hit at a .269 clip or higher in each of his last 3 seasons at the minor league level and that includes .302 last season. The point is that I am not putting too much stock into his successful start in his last outing. As for the Orioles David Hess, the over is 3-1 in his last 4 starts as he has compiled a 10.70 ERA in these outings. Hess allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of those 4 starts. Look for another wild one tonight as both of these starters are likely to struggle and neither team has a potent bullpen either! 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Shane Bieber has allowed at least 4 runs in 4 straight starts. In one of the outings only 3 of the runs were earned but the point is that Bieber has consistently struggled in recent starts. Also, his most recent start saw him get completely crushed by the Pirates. Bieber will be facing the Twins for the 3rd time this season and this certainly is an advantage for the Minnesota lineup. Bieber has only allowed 5 earned runs in his first two starts versus the Twins but he has been fortunate to say the least. Bieber has given up 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings so certainly he escaped some jams and is unlikely to be so fortunate here. As for the Minnesota starter Monday, Ervin Santana gets the call. I am well aware of the fact that he has great numbers in recent starts versus the Indians but this is a unique situation for him. He is making just his 2nd start of this season after a long stint on the DL and, in his first start back, Santana gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work and this was against a Toronto team that certainly hasn't been playing at the level of the Indians this season. In fact, Cleveland is hitting .284 in the month of July and averaging 6.2 runs per game this month. Both of those stats have them #1 in the league. The over is 9-3 in the Indians last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. The over is 13-7 in Twins home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - I had this play yesterday and it was also an over 8.5 and I got burned bad as it did not go over the total despite being 6-0 after 1 inning and 6-2 by the top of the 4th. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play today as the Cardinals John Gant shows good overall numbers as a starter but only 2 of his 7 starts have been quality starts. In most outings Gant labors just to complete 5 innings and his ERA in these other 5 starts is a modest 5.04 combined. The Cubs just saw him last week and Gant certainly wasn't dominant as he was fortunate to hold them scoreless over 5 innings. As for Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, he just faced the Cardinals last week and he allowed 3 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 5 innings of work. Hendricks has allowed an average of 2 base runners per inning in his last 2 starts and bigger trouble is on the way based on his current hittability. He also has allowed about 2 base runners per inning in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Hendricks has a 4.70 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of his last 9 road starts have resulted in an under. The over is 6-3 in Chicago's last 9 games versus a right-handed starter and the Cards are 10-5 to the over in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 3:10 ET - The A's had been one of the hottest lineups in baseball heading into this series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Of course it only makes sense then that a lot of runs should be expected. Inexplicably however, Oakland has been held to scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games of this series. In other words, look for a huge bounce back here! The A's had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in the first 4 games of this road trip - all at Texas. Oakland has averaged 11 hits per game so far on this road trip and should get right back on track in terms of run production by taking advantage of facing a struggling pitcher Sunday. The Rockies German Marquez gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and that was on the road. Note that the Colorado right-hander has a 7.31 ERA in his 10 home starts this season! The A's hurler is also likely to struggle here. Not only is the over 7-2 in Frankie Montas 9 starts this season, this will be his first ever start at Coors Field. This venue is not known for being very kind to first-timers and the Rockies step to the plate with plenty of confidence here as they've gone 15-4 in their last 19 games. Colorado is one of the top hitting teams in the league when at home and the over is 7-3 in Marquez home starts and 4-1 in Montas road starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jose Quintana threw over 120 pitches in his most recent start. Though he got the win and has enjoyed recent success since making some adjustments to his change-up, the issue the southpaw is going to have here is that he is facing the same team he just beat Sunday. Not only could he fatigue early in this one after the lengthy start in his last outing, the Cardinals will also have an edge in having just seen him. That means the tweaks he made to his change aren't going to be effective in the 2nd meeting in 6 days. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has struggled a bit in 2 straight starts now as Mikolas has allowed 5 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cards will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and, by the way, the Cubs hitters will be facing Quintana for the 4th time already this season. Quintana has been great in night games this season but note that he has a 5.01 ERA in day games this year! As for Mikolas, the recent struggles also could relate to his wife having recently given birth to twins. He was on the paternity list recently and this is a home game for him so, again, the distractions of home will certainly be present again. Look for both starters to struggle here. Even with yesterday's game staying under the total, the over is still 10-4 in match-ups between these teams this season. Also, the Cubs are 10-4 to the over their last 14 games overall and the Cards are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games overall. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Rangers Yovani Gallardo gave up 0 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start at home against the Indians. However, he walked 4 and struck out 1. This guy has not had a solid season at the MLB level since 2015! This year he has a 7.47 ERA in his 3 road starts and all 3 went over the total. Though his start versus Cleveland stayed under the total that was his first start for Texas this season that has stayed under the total. Gallardo has a 4-1 record on the season but, hands down, this is absolutely the worst pitcher in MLB to have an 80% winning percentage - no questions asked. He is likely to get crushed by the defending World Champs here as his road struggles continue. As for Houston's Dallas Keuchel, of course I am well aware of the fact that he is a very good pitcher and that this is particularly true at home. However, the Rangers are very familiar with him as these division rivals face off so often. In fact, this will be the 4th time in just 2 and 1/2 months that the Rangers are getting a shot at Keuchel. In the two most recent starts Texas has gotten to him for 8 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. The over is 6-2 in the Rangers last 8 games overall and they have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs per game this season against right-handed starters and certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Gallardo. In fact, the Astros have pounded out 22 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings against them. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right field at Wrigley Field this afternoon and there are two right-handed starters on the mound that will contribute to some extra left-handed pop in the lineup from each of these two teams. In other words, you can expect some long balls to hit in this one. I am well aware of the fact that yesterday's game was a pitchers duel and that each of the first three games of this 4-game series have stayed under the total. The key here is that the pitching match-up Thursday afternoon is absolutely ripe for an over. The Diamondbacks Zack Godley has a 5.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Also, in his 5 day game appearances (including 4 starts) this season, Godley has a 10.00 ERA and has been rocked at a .342 clip by opposing hitters! As for the Cubs Tyler Chatwood, he has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Of course that is never a good sign for a pitcher and this is particularly true when it is past the midway point of the season already! Chatwood's ERA is nearly two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, in his 3 prior seasons, his home ERA was 6.07 compared to just a 2.57 ERA on the road. Of course that had to do with pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field but, keep in mind, Wrigley Field plays out as a hitter-friendly venue too when the weather is like it will be today in Chicago. Only 3 of Godley last 10 road starts have resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-5 in Chatwood's last 17 starts and that includes a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts! The Cubs were 9-0 to the over in their 9 games prior to this series and that trending toward high-scoring games resumes this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio is off of the longest start of his career. That certainly holds significance here as he threw over 100 pitches in that outing and Gaviglio has an ERA above 9.00 in his career when he is off of a start where he threw at least 100 pitches. The right-hander also has given up 4 homers in his 2 starts against the Twins in his career. As for Minnesota's Ervin Santana, he is making his season debut after a long stint on the disabled list recovering from thumb surgery. Not only will he be on a pitch count here, he is unlikely to be 100% right away in his first start of the season. Additionally, Santana has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts at the Rogers Centre. Only 4 of Gaviglio's 12 starts this season have resulted in an under and I look for that trend to continue here. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Minny was previously 9-4 to the over in their 13 prior games. Also, the Twins faced a southpaw yesterday but the over is 8-2 in their last 10 games facing a right-handed starter. As for the Blue Jays, they were 6-3 to the over their last 9 games prior to yesterday's game finishing under the total. Look for the over trending to resume in a huge way giving the pitching match-up in this afternoon affair Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are 17-6 against left-handed starters this season. However, I am going with the over rather than the Cubs in this match-up. That's because I certainly don't trust Chicago starter Luke Farrell. The right-hander struggled in his only start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in less than 3 innings in a late June outing. In his only MLB start last season he also struggled and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Farrell is facing a Diamondbacks team that got their sticks going again in their weekend series with the Rockies in Arizona as they averaged scoring 7 runs per game. The Cubs have certainly been red hot at the plate for an even longer stretch. The Cubs have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game their last 9 games and all 9 of those went over the total. The Cubs rank 5th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Look for Chicago to give the Dbacks Pat Corbin some trouble here. The Arizona southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start at Wrigley Field. We're getting line value because the wind will be blowing in off of the lake at the old ball park this afternoon. The wind will be light and, based on this pitching match-up, I expect plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Corbin has a 5.23 ERA in his last two starts on the road and the over is 19-10 in Diamondbacks road games with a money line range between -125 and +125 this season. Also, the over is 9-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season and the Cubs over streak appears destined for 10 in a row! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 3:05 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has allowed 28 hits in the 23 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Cleveland right-hander has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Clevinger's last 5 starts versus AL West opponents. The over is 7-1 in the Indians last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. The first two games of this series have each totaled at least 17 runs and it looks like another wild one can be expected Sunday with Yovani Gallardo getting the start for the Rangers. All 5 of his starts have gone over the total this season and he has a 6.75 ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Gallardo truly hasn't enjoyed success at the MLB level since the 2015 season. He is facing the wrong team at the wrong time too. The over is 7-1-1 in the Indians' last 9 games thanks in part to a Tribe offense that has averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak! The over is 10-5 in Indians Sunday games this season. The over is a long-term 22-14 when the Rangers are  home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. While it is true that this is the biggest total on the board Sunday, it is also true that both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked and the Rangers bullpen has been struggling and the Indians bullpen has been one of the worst in MLB this season. Currently Cleveland's bullpen has a 5.26 ERA on the season which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams! 10* OVER the total in Texas

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game ended up a low-scoring pitchers duel. However, there is reason to believe both of these starters get a little roughed up on Saturday afternoon. This game starts at 4:15 local time and the wind (although not strong) will be blowing out toward center field. The point being the ball does carry better in day games in Anaheim and the weather is favorable for it Saturday afternoon with very warm weather in the forecast. Though Justin Verlander has great history versus the Angels, he did get roughed up in his final start before the All Star break as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. That was the 3rd time in his last 5 starts that Verlander has allowed 4 earned runs or more. The over is 6-2-1 in Verlander's last 9 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in Nick Tropeano's last 5 starts. The Angels right-hander has a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts and has been rocked for 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Tropeano has a 6.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros and Houston was on a 5-1 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring win. Tropeano had been on the DL due inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He'll be rusty here, Verlander's recent trend of giving up big hits will continue, and this one should fly over the total on a hitter-friendly afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:10 ET - After yesterday's 1-0 pitchers duel most will be enticed to take the under 9.5 in this one Saturday but the pitching match-up should prove to be absolutely perfect for a slugfest here. The Tigers, overall, are certainly not a great team but they are hitting .268 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them among the top five teams in the majors against southpaw hurlers. The Red Sox are starting lefty Brian Johnson here and he gave up 3 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced Detroit last season. The Tigers counter with Michael Fiers in this one. I am well aware of the fact that he has had some success versus Boston in the past. However, this Red Sox team was scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's 1-0 win. Also, even including yesterday's lackluster performance at the plate, the BoSox are hitting .295 in the month of July which ranks them #1 in the AL. In June, Boston ranked #2 in the AL for batting average and in May their .481 slugging percentage ranked them #2 out of all 30 MLB teams. The point is that a bounce back is likely after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The Red Sox have now stayed under in 3 straight games but only 3 times this entire season have they had an "under" streak go more than 3 games. This streak gets snapped Saturday! Fiers final start before the All Star break saw him allow "only" 3 earned runs against the Astros but they got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings and he struck out only 2. He won't be fooling the bats of Boston either! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy has struggled since returning from the disabled list. The Baltimore right-hander has gone 0-2 with 11 runs (10 earned) given up in 7 and 1/3 innings and he has walked as many as he has struck out in those two outings. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has also struggled in back to back starts as he has been rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two outings. The Orioles have been hitting a little better of late and they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Blue Jays have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winner with the low total posted on this game. Yes Manny Machado is now a Dodger and not an Oriole but this lineup still has some pop. This is particularly true against a struggling pitcher like Gaviglio. The over is 4-2 in Gaviglio's starts where he is opposed by a right-handed starter this season. The over is 13-7 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Orioles bullpen is getting hit at a .269 clip this season which ranks them 28th in the majors and the Blue Jays (.254) rank 22nd out of the 30 teams. In other words, both bullpens are susceptible in this match-up too. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

1st Half Game of the Year (pre-All Star break GOY) - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total as the Cubs won 11-6. Chicago is now 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. The Cubs are also 3-0 to the over in Jon Lester's last 3 starts. The southpaw has not looked quite as sharp in recent starts as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two outings. Also, Lester has given up 15 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts while allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in those two outings. In home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Padres are 13-7 to the over this season. Also, when the Padres are on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-3 this season! I know that Eric Lauer has a low ERA in recent starts. However, his full season numbers do tell more of a complete story on him and also he had been hit hard in each of his past two outings before the surprising success versus the Dodgers in his most recent start. Lauer had allowed 16 hits in the 10 innings spanning his two prior starts and both of those outings went over the total. Lauer has a 1.64 WHIP on the season so it is not as if he is a dominant starter and today he is facing a solid Cubs lineup! Chicago has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their 8 July wins as they've won 8 of 11 games this month. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 games and they hit two homers off of Lester in his most recent start against them. The ball does carry better in day games compared to night games at Petco Field and I love the value here with the low total. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - After Friday's game totaled 15 runs, yesterday's game ended up being a surprising 5-0 shutout win for Kansas City. Prior to that under, the Royals had gone 8-2 to the over their previous 10 games. The White Sox, prior to that shutout loss, had gone 16-6 to the over their last 22 games. The Royals Burch Smith got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start and the KC right-hander will be facing a Chicago team that was averaging scoring 5.4 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's loss. As for the White Sox starter, Lucas Giolito, he is also likely to get roughed up here. Giolioto has an 8.65 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Also, the Royals will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and this is a big edge for them here. The over is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 games versus a right-handed starter and these two bullpens are also two of the worst in baseball with Kansas City's ERA actually ranking the Royals dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. Both bullpens could certainly be called into play early here as Giolito has averaged only 5 and 1/2 innings per start his last 9 starts and the Royals Smith is unlikely to work deep here given his struggles at the MLB level as a starter (2013 too when most recently used in that role). In fact, KC is calling this a bullpen day as Smith is also working on short rest here. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now 7-0 this season in Indians home games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. Overall, on the season, Cleveland's home games are 32-14 to the over. Additionally, the Indians are 11-1 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has been getting hit harder of late as he has allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start. The over is 6-2-1 in Clevinger's home starts this season and he does have a higher ERA at home compared to on the road this season. As for CC Sabathia, the Yankees left-hander allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start too. Like Clevinger, he has been getting hit harder of late. Sabathia has allowed 37 hits in his last 31 innings. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Yankees Saturday games this season. The Indians last 5 games overall have all gone over the total and this one does too! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Both teams were off yesterday. The Reds are 14-3-2 to the over their last 19 games! Cincinnati is averaging scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 11 games. The Cardinals are off of a shutout loss Wednesday but they entered that game having gone 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. St Louis had averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in that 10-game stretch. Friday marks the 15th time this season the Cardinals are playing after a day off and so far only 5 of these spots have stayed under the total. The Reds are 30-18 to the over this season when off of a loss. Also, Cincinnati is on a 7-1 run to the over when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Reds hand the ball to Matt Harvey for this one and though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his most recent start he did give up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work and the road hasn't been kind to Harvey this season. On enemy mounds this season, Harvey is 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA on the year. The Cincinnati right-hander faced the Cardinals last month and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings thanks in large part to allowing 3 homers in that one. He'll be opposed by Carlos Martinez Friday. The St Louis right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start versus the Reds and that was just last month. Martinez has walked 14 in less than 17 innings of work in his last 3 starts versus Cincinnati. Only 2 of his 8 home starts this season have resulted in an under as he has received great run support in home games and that should certainly continue here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - With Robbie Ray having strong numbers on the season and Kyle Freeland having strong numbers at home this season, this total is being kept lower than it should be. Although the wind will be blowing in this afternoon it won't be a strong wind and, keep in mind, the ball carries even better in afternoon games than it does at night. The hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field helped produce 21 runs and that was the 2nd time in 4 games that the Diamondbacks have been involved in a game that produced more than 20 runs. Both of these teams hit lefties well and this afternoon game is a match-up of southpaws. In the National League, only the Braves have a higher slugging percentage versus left-handers than the Rockies and Diamondbacks do. Also, Arizona's Ray comes into this game having allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts and he has compiled a 9.64 ERA in those two starts. As for Freeland, though his recent numbers are strong, the Diamondbacks lineup is known for giving him some trouble and they just faced him a month ago, In his last 3 starts versus Arizona, Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. As you can see, allowing nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks he is actually fortunate the damage hasn't been even worse. I suspect the damage will be worse today! In road games where their money line is between -125 and +125, Arizona is 19-7 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - I know it seems tough to take an over with Chris Sale on the mound but the Red Sox have been giving him plenty of run support. Each of his last two starts have gone over the total as Boston has averaged scoring 10.5 runs per game. Also, the Red Sox enter this game absolutely red hot at the plate. The over is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game. Even though Sale has been fantastic on the mound, this will be the 2nd time in a span of two months and the last time he hosted the Rangers at Fenway Park he allowed 4 runs (3 earned). Texas scored 4 runs last night and they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game their last 23 games! Of course the key to this play is the Rangers Bartolo Colon getting rocked and I have little doubt about that! Though he held the Red Sox to 4 earned runs in his early May start against Boston, all 4 runs came via the long ball! Yes Colon allowed 4 homers in that game and now he faces the powerful (and red hot) BoSox lineup at Fenway Park! This could get ugly in a hurry and I expect it to fly over the total early as a result. Colon has allowed 22 homers in his 16 starts this season and, even off of a solid road start against a poor Tigers team at Detroit, he has compiled a 7.24 ERA in his last 5 road starts! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 games the Red Sox have played against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to a 7.5 and this is offering huge value on the over. The drop is understood because the Giants Johnny Cueto has great full season numbers and so too does Mike Montgomery. Also, these teams have scored a total of only 5 runs in the first two games of this series. That said, the move on this total does make perfect sense. However, the reason it does not make sense is absolutely why I am all "over" the "over" at AT & T Park this afternoon. The ball does tend to carry better in afternoon games in San Francisco and temperatures will warm to near 70 degrees and the wind will be blowing out a good clip. Additionally, Cueto is still unproven since his time on the disabled list. He made one start (last week) and he allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work! As for Montgomery, he is in poor current form. The Cubs southpaw has a 1.63 WHIP and a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts! The over is 2-1 in Montgomery's last 3 starts and the over is 3-0 in Cueto's 3 home starts this season! The over is 16-10 this season in San Francisco's home games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. The Giants are also 10-4 to the over this season in Wednesday games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed well under the total but the Royals were 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. Kansas City hasn't recorded back to back unders since two weeks ago. The Twins bullpen and the Royals bullpen are ranked as the two worst in the majors in terms of opponents batting average. KC's relievers are also ranked dead last for bullpen ERA on the year. Both bullpens could certainly be called upon early here. The Royals Ian Kennedy averages just 5 and 1/3 inning per start and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. He also has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Twins even though these 3 outings saw him compile a total of only 10 and 2/3 innings! As for Aaron Slegers, his first start of this season was a good one but it came against the free-swinging Orioles and yet he still recorded only 2 strikeouts. I am well aware of the fact that the Royals, of course, fall into the same class of team as Baltimore. However, the point is that Slegers one start against a bad O's team does not mean he has "arrived". In his few MLB appearances (6 games with 4 starts included) he has a 4.73 ERA. In the minors this season he has been hit a .260 clip and last season he was hit at .266 clip. With these types of numbers in the minors it would not surprise to see him get hit at a .300 clip in the majors. In other words, Slegers one good start (in my book) is a bit of a fluke. Long-term the over is 100-69 in Twins games versus teams with a losing record and both lineups get back on track after yesterday's pitchers' duel. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that the Dodgers Alex Wood has made. Though he has pitched quite well of late he has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 8 innings on the road which spanned two starts. Of course that did include a trip to Coors Field but also note that Wood has given up 23 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 4 road starts. The point is that, overall, the Dodgers lefty has been quite hittable on the road. As for the Angels Andrew Heaney, he is off of a strong start at Seattle. However, in the left-hander's 4 prior starts he did compile a 6.33 ERA. Heaney had allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his prior 6 starts. In his most recent start against the Dodgers, the Angels lefty was reached for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Entering Saturday's game, the Dodgers were 4-1 in their last 5 games thanks to production on offense averaging 7.8 runs per game. That production keyed a 4-1 run to the over for the Dodgers. Regardless of Saturday's final outcome, note that the Dodgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. Additionally, the Angels entered Saturday's afternoon game having trended under of late but the Halos slugging percentage in night games this season does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers slugging percentage in night games ranks them 2nd in the National League. This is a contrarian play but it is not without good reason and I expect plenty will be surprised at the struggles of both Wood and Heaney in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 1:10 ET - Regular followers know I had the over (also 9 runs) in this match-up yesterday. Unbelievably the game ended up only being able to manage a push even though 7 runs were scored in the 1st inning. What made this even more frustrating is that there were numerous opportunities all game long! One look at some final statistics tells you just how numerous those opportunities were! The teams combined to leave 19 men on base and, in terms of clutch hitting, note that the teams combined to go a miserable 3 for 26 with runners in scoring position. That my friends is how a game that should have easily gone over the total somehow manages not to. It barely even got the push as the run that was needed finally came in the top of the 9th inning. I am thankful we didn't get "totally" burned which we would have if we didn't get that push but the fact remains yesterday's game should have finished with about 15 runs! Funny things tend to happen after a  game like that and I fully expect the lineups to make up for yesterday's shortcomings in Sunday's early action. The Rangers Austin Bibens-Dirkx has had decent starts versus the light-hitting Padres and Royals recently but his other 3 starts this season have seen him allow 13 earned runs on 26 hits in 17 innings of work! Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Texas and he averaged just 5 and 1/3 innings in those 2 starts. Also, Detroit is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and he has a mediocre 4.58 ERA in those outings. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Rangers Cole Hamels is struggling and has allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Facing the Tigers is unlikely to help Hamels as he has a low ERA versus Detroit but it is an absolute fluke. The Texas southpaw was very fortunate in recent outings versus the Tigers are he allowed only 6 earned runs in 13 innings even though he gave up 22 hits plus walked 8 in those 13 frames! Talk about incredible luck, it won't happen again here. Another concern for Hamels is that the Tigers have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Their .274 batting average versus southpaws is #1 in the majors. Detroit will have Mike Fiers on the mound and I am well aware of the fact that his recent numbers look great. Note however that Fiers is facing a Rangers lineup that is very familiar with him. That is because the Tigers right-hander recent's seasons were as a member of the Astros - a division rival of Texas. In his last 3 starts versus the Rangers, Fiers has allowed 16 earned runs in just 13 and 1/3 innings. You can see why I am expecting both of these guys to get pounded Saturday. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Hamels last 3 starts. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Fiers 6 career starts versus Texas. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem "scary" to play an over involving red hot Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale, follow along here. If you want to be involved this match-up, the total is arguably the "safest" way. The Red Sox are a -300 on the money line and also in the 175 range as a favorite on the run line. As you can see, Boston is projected to blow out Kansas City here but, as we've all seen before, "shockers" do happen and that is always why it is uncomfortable laying big prices. That said, I love the value with the over here. I know know Sale has been hot and the Royals have been cold. However, note that the lefty has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium and he did allow 2 homers in his most recent trip there. As for the Boston sticks here they should do plenty of damage. They'll be facing the Royals Jason Hammel and he has gone 0-3 with a 9.76 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The likelihood of him turning things around against one of the best hitting teams in baseball is not good at all. This is especially true when one considers that Hammel got pummeled for 8 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his start at Boston earlier this season. The Red Sox had not trouble with his offerings then and they are unlikely to have any trouble here either. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs Kansas City is 5-2 to the over this season. Also, from 2016 to the present, the Royals are 7-1 to the over when they are a home dog of +175 or more! Both teams were off yesterday and Boston is 26-16 to the over when playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games. The Phillies are 4-0 to the over in Nick Pivetta's last 4 starts. Pivetta had a great start versus the Cardinals during this stretch but, overall, his June was horrible with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts. He has shown to be a streaky pitcher and right now he is most certainly in one of his downward cycles. The Pirates Trevor Williams also comes into this start struggling. He has a 5.91 ERA in his last two starts and allowed 3 homers in the less than 11 innings spanning those two outings. Another concern for him here is that he has shown throughout his career that he struggles in night games compared to day games. Additionally, Williams also struggles much more against left-handed batters than righties. The Phillies active roster, in terms of position players, has 3 left-handed batters plus 4 switch-hitters. You can bet that Williams is going to face some significant left-handed lumber in this one and that will be a problem. This total has already dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and, either way, there is great value with this one based on the low total and the expectation that both of these hurlers are going to hit some rough patches in this one. By the way, wind expected to be blowing out to right field in this one in Pittsburgh! The Pirates are 15-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Philadelphia is 8-4 to the over in Friday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 down to a 7 as of early on game day but the markets are fooled on this one simply because Justin Verlander is on the mound. Yes he has a fantastic pitcher but his current form suggests he could definitely give up quite a few runs against a White Sox team that has been swinging the bats better the past few weeks. Another key to the over here is that the Astros are back home and they have been swinging the bats very well at Minute Maid Park plus they should have no trouble with the mediocre offerings of Carlos Rodon. The Chicago southpaw is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in his five starts since he returned from the 60-day disabled list about four weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in Rodon's last 3 starts overall. Also, on the season he is 0-3 on the road and he has been rocked for 9 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings in his last two starts away from home. As for Verlander, has strong as he has been all season, the fact is that he has labored a bit recently as he has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He has allowed 3 homers in his last two home starts and Rodon has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts overall. The Astros are averaging scoring 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 home games and the White Sox are averaging scoring 6.1 runs per game in their last dozen games overall. You can see why I am happy to take advantage of the very low total posted on this game. 10* OVER the total in Houston

ESPN Smash Pass (Primetime) - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and the fact that the game ended up going 12 innings certainly didn't do any favors for the bullpens either. That said, look for another slugfest on Sunday evening because neither one of these starters is likely to enjoy much success either. Dylan Covey gets the start for the White Sox in this one and he has allowed 26 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings. He has a 12.71 ERA and 2.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now faces a red hot Reds lineup. Cincinnati simply continues to pound the ball and the over is now 8-2-2 in their last dozen games. The Reds have averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 16 games. As for the White Sox, they've averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 11 games. Chicago has also averaged 11 hits per game during this 11-game stretch. The over is 11-3 in the White Sox last 14 games and they should continue pounding the ball as they face Sal Romano Wednesday evening. The Reds right-hander has given up 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Though Romano only allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start he did have to work out of numerous jams. Also, this start was proceeded by a stretch where he allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his 8 prior starts. In fact, even including his most recent start (2 ER in 5 IP), Romano has a 6.33 ERA in his last 5 home starts. The slugfest style of games at Great American Ball Park continue. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Top Play Special - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tough loss for me with this play yesterday and, as a result, I am not hesitating to come right back with it. The Reds and White Sox combined for 9 extra base hits in yesterday's game but Cincinnati went just 1 for 8 at the plate with runners in scoring position. Also, the teams combined to leave 19 men on base in the game and so the over (released at 9.5) was a tough loss as it finished with 8 runs. Chicago scored just 3 runs despite 11 hits yesterday. Look for the teams to make up for it today as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The White Sox are going with Lucas Giolito and he has a 6.59 ERA on the season and will be facing a Cincinnati team that has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last 15 games. Also, the under that resulted yesterday was just the 2nd under that the Reds have had in their last 11 games! As for the White Sox, prior to yesterday's under, the over was 10-2 their last 12 games. Even with yesterday's loss Chicago has averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game their last 10 games. They'll be going up against Cincinnati's Anthony DeSclafani. The Reds right-hander has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts and all 3 outings resulted in an over. He has a 4.77 ERA at home and continues to display a penchant for giving up big hits. The White Sox have reached double digits in hits in 8 of their last 10 games and should get to him early and often. The Reds have averaged 10 hits per game their last 15 games! 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - When you look at the current MLB standings you will see the White Sox near the basement of the AL Central and the Reds in the cellar of the NL Central. The point is that this makes these teams easy for the markets to ignore and that's great for spots like this. These teams square off of in a 3-game series Monday that actually pits two of the hotter lineups in the league. Though you wouldn't expect it from these two teams, both of them have been very hot at the plate. The White Sox won 10-5 at Texas yesterday and are now 5-4 in their last 9 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game on 10.6 hits per game during this stretch. The over is now 10-2 in Chicago's last dozen games. As for the Reds, they have had just 1 under in their last 10 games as they are 7-1-2 to the over after yesterday's 8-2 win went over the total. Cincinnati has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 14 games! You can see why a 7-6 type game here would not surprise in the least and I am jumping all "over" this total. Chicago's James Shields has a 5.81 ERA on the road this season and though he tends to not give up a lot of hits he has a penchant for giving up big hits and Great American Ball Park is a very hitter friendly park. As for the Reds Luis Castillo, he is having a sub-park season and has compiled a 5.85 ERA on the year. The over is 11-5-1 in his 17 starts. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 6.82 ERA in his last 7 starts so it is not as if he is trending the right direction either. The Reds are a long-term 31-16 to the over in Monday games and that includes 7-1 to the over this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - We have got a low total to work with here and that makes perfect sense given the long-term numbers of Luis Severino for the Yankees and David Price for the Red Sox. The key to the value here is each of these pitchers have had some struggles against the potent lineups they'll be facing tonight. Severino has piled up solid strikeout numbers versus Boston this season but he also has allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits in his 11 innings versus the Red Sox this year. Also, in Severino's most recent home start he allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work versus the Mariners. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw got crushed by the Yankees on April 11th and allowed 4 earned runs in a start in which he registered just 3 outs! That was at Fenway Park. How about the last time he started at Yankee Stadium? Price gave up 6 earned runs in just 5 innings of work! The Boston lefty is off of a strong start at home but he did allow 2 homers in 6 innings in his most recent road start and that was against a Twins team that doesn't have near the "pop" in their lineup that this Yankees team has! Certainly this is a contrarian play but the weather is favorable for an over, there is reason to believe each starter could struggle against the powerful lineups they are facing which do have some good history against them, and some current numbers also support the fact this game should get to at least 9 runs. Note we need just 4 runs from each team to guarantee us of no worse than a 5-4 final which, of course, puts us in the winners' circle. The Red Sox have scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games. Boston was held below 4 runs just twice in this stretch. The Bronx Bombers had scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their 11 games prior to yesterday's shutout loss. They have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game the 3 times they've been off of scoreless defeat this season! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:15 ET - Most will be looking under here but I am going contrarian as I am not going to over-react to Kenta Maeda having one good start. The Dodgers right-hander was excellent versus the Cubs in his most recent outing but he entered that one having allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 9 walks in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for the Rockies German Marquez, he has a history of pitching well on the road. However, his current form suggest we can expect some struggles here and, keep in mind, the ball does carry better in day games at Dodger Stadium than it does at night. Marquez enters this starts having allowed 25 runs (24 earned) on 35 hits in the 25 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. All 5 of these outings went over the total and I fully expect another EASY one here. Yesterday's game featured a pair of southpaw starters and the pitchers ruled the game. However, the over is 3-1 in the Rockies last 4 games versus a right handed starter and all 4 of those contests totaled at least 8 runs. Note the total on this game is only a 7.5 and the Dodgers are 33-17 (66%) to the over this season games against a right-handed starter. Also, in LA's Saturday games, the over is 10-5 (67%) this season! The over improves to 6-0 in Colorado's last 6 starts with Marquez on the mound. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:15 ET - Warm weather, wind blowing out toward left field, and two pitchers likely to get roughed up. Combining those factors with a low total of 8.5 here and I really like our chances of getting rather easy over winner. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas has great full season numbers but has a 4.58 ERA in his last 3 starts and I feel a "fade" could be coming for the "surprise story" of the season. Mikolas has spent the last 3 years pitching in Japan and has certainly pitched better than expected this year. It is not going to last forever and there are some "signs" in recent starts. As for the Braves Julio Teheran, he is off of a rough start versus Baltimore and has also been a pitcher on an overall cooling trend. Since mid-May Teheran has a 6.05 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Braves right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over (and one push) in Friday games this season. Both teams were off yesterday and the Cards are 7-4 to the over (and one push) when playing after a day off this season. The Braves are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 road games. The Cardinals are off of a tough home loss to the Indians Wednesday but, prior to that game, they had averaged 10.4 hits per game in their 5 prior home games. Also, prior to that loss, the Cards had won 4 straight games overall and averaged 6.5 runs per game. They bounce back here but the Braves will score plenty as well! 10* OVER the total in St Louis

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .506 this season in home games. That is #1 in the majors. Their prowess at Fenway Park was on display again last night in a 9-6 win over the Angels. As for Los Angeles, they have a .432 slugging percentage on the road this season. This is good for the #6 spot in the majors! All signs are pointing to another "slugfest" Thursday evening. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels and he is showings some signs that a downturn is forthcoming. Yes, he has good overall numbers on the season but Barria has a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last two road starts the Angels right-hander has been rocked for 7 runs (6 earned) on 14 hits in 11 innings of work. Barria now gets introduced to hitter-friendly Fenway Park on an evening where the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at a decent clip. Also, the Red Sox have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 6 games! You can easily see why I am expected Barria to get pounded here. The good news for Angels fans however is that LA should also deliver plenty of success at the plate tonight. They'll take advantage of facing Red Sox southpaw Brian Johnson. He hasn't started since early April and has been working out of the bullpen. As a reliever this season he has a 1.47 WHIP and 5.10 ERA. Certainly nothing all that impressive and Johnson has been hit at a .288 clip this season and was also hit at a .281 clip last season in his 5 starts at the MLB level. The over is 6-2 in Angels Thursday games and 7-1-2 in their last 10 road games. More of the same here as the Red Sox stay hot at the plate while LA pounds Johnson. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:45 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Rockies win) most will be looking for another under and, indeed, the total has already dropped from an opener of 8 down to a 7.5 as of early game day morning. The fact is that, although AT & T Park is certainly a pitchers park, the ball does carry better there in day games than it does at night. Though temperatures are unlikely to reach 70 in San Francisco today, a strong wind will be blowing out toward center and there are likely to be some big hits for extra bases in this one! The Rockies Jon Gray is off of a strong start versus the Marlins but he had struggled his last 7 starts prior. Gray compiled an 8.13 ERA in his 7 previous outings! Entering this start, the over is 6-1 in Colorado's last 7 games with Gray as the starter. As for the Giants Chris Stratton, he held the light-hitting Padres to just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. However, note that he did allow 9 hits in those 6 innings. On the season, Stratton has a 5.08 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his 8 home starts and the Giants are 6-2 to the over in his outings at AT & T Park! SF is 13-7 to the over this season in home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Colorado is 15-8 to the over this season in road games where their money line is in a range between +125 and -125. Also, the over was 20-4 in the Rockies last 24 games prior to this series. After the first two games stayed under the total, look for an over to finish this 3-game set with a bang! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins have been hot at the plate but I got burned by this play (over the total used as a free pick) yesterday. It was the only game on the board where BOTH teams left at least 10 men on base in the game. In other words, it was a game filled with wasted opportunities. I will get payback today in a big way! Prior to yesterday's game falling just a run short of going over the total, the over was 7-1 in Miami's prior 8 games and the Marlins have averaged scoring 5.1 runs per game during this solid 9-game stretch. They should stay hot against Robbie Ray as he is coming off of the disabled list and was supposed to have another rehab start Monday but is instead making this start for the Diamondbacks. Ray has a 4.88 ERA in his 6 starts this season and I don't expect him be 100% here. The good news for Ray is that he should get plenty of run support here as his teammates will be "teeing off" against the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen. The Miami southpaw has a 6.71 ERA this season and, although his numbers at home show him as much better there this season, he did struggle in his most recent outing in south Florida. Why? Because the fact is that Chen is simply not in good current form right now. As a result, I am happy to take advantage of the low total posted here considering that each of these pitchers are truly both "question marks" for this game. The Diamondbacks are 9-5 in their last 14 games thanks in part to offensive production that has led to Arizona averaging 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 to the over this season in Wednesday games. Look for another one - easy - here! 10* OVER the total in Miami

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers in their most recent starts and I expect that to benefit the hitters. Yesterday's game turned into a surprising pitchers duel as both starters pitched much better than anyone could have expected. Kenta Maeda had been awful of late and Duante Underwood was an unproven rookie. With that said, watch tonight's game be "surprising" the other way as the Dodgers Ross Stripling and Cubs Jon Lester both fare worse than most would expect. Stripling gave up 8 hits in 6 innings at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Lester only gave up 5 hits in 7 innings in that start but he also only struck out 1 while walking 3. The point is that both pitchers gave up a lot of solid contact even though you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score - a 4-0 Cubs win. Having just seen these pitchers, the lineups are really going to do some damage tonight. The Dodgers had averaged 7 runs per game in their 3-game series sweep of the Mets in New York. The Cubs had recorded a perfect 3-0 to the over in the final 3 games of their 4-game series at Cincinnati. The point is that one shouldn't over-react to last night's surprising result. These are two quality lineups and here is an interesting factoid relating to value here. The Dodgers are 18-9 versus left-handed starters this season and yet the over is 6-20-1 in those 27 games. The Dodgers have hit southpaws much better than what the O/U record reflects and so we get value (total of 7.5) in a spot like this. LA is a top ten team in the majors for slugging percentage versus left-handed starters this season. The Cubs are hitting .258 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 in the National League. Lester has a 7.88 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts at Dodger Stadium. More struggles for him tonight but his Chicago teammates should hit Stripling hard in the rematch as well and that sends this one flying over the low number. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - The Dodgers hit 7 homers in their big win at New York yesterday against the Mets. Now they'll be facing an unproven rookie hurler making his MLB debut. Look for the Cubs Duane Underwood to struggle here. The 23-year old right-hander has not fared all that well in the minors once he got past the rookie and single-A leagues. In double-A ball two years ago he went 0-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 13 starts. Last season in double-A ball again he did go 13-7 but Underwood compiled a 4.43 ERA in those outings. This season in triple-A ball he is 3-7 with a 4.27 ERA. Today he'll make his major league debut in a pitcher-friendly park but the way the Dodgers are seeing the ball right now it may not matter! LA is crushing the ball right now and Underwood's only hope is for some solid run support which, actually, he is likely to get! The Cubs certainly have a powerful lineup of their own and they'll be facing a struggling Kenta Maeda. He is winless with a 6.09 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his career versus the Cubs, Maeda's 3 starts have seen him compile a 5.56 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. As you can see from those WHIP figures noted above, Maeda is likely to allow 2 baserunners per inning tonight. When a pitcher is doing that it doesn't take very long to get into trouble. This is particularly true against a solid lineup like the Cubs have. The Dodgers averaged 6 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Mets this past weekend. The over is 5-2 in Chicago's last 7 road games and the Cubs have averaged scoring nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 3-1 this season when the Cubs enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The over is a solid 32-16 in LA's games versus right-handed starters this season. More of the same Monday in late night ESPN action. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:05 ET - Nick Pivetta is off of a fantastic start but that was at home against St Louis and he really can't be trusted here. He was struggling heading into that start and he also has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season. Additionally, Pivetta has struggled badly against the Nationals in his career. He is winless with an 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in his 3 starts versus Washington and all of those outings have occurred since May of last year. In other words, the Nationals have had his number in very recent action. The key to the over here is that the Phillies have been heating up at the plate and they face an unproven hurler here. Philadelphia had gone 8-2 to the over prior to yesterday's 8-3 win saying just under the total. The Phillies have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 games. They're facing Jefry Rodriguez here and this will be just his 2nd career MLB start and the ESPN cameras will be on the 24-year old hurler. In his two outings this season (one start) he has been hit hard by left-handed bats and the Phillies have quite a few of those as they are loaded with switch-hitters. Rodriguez allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his first career MLB start and this match-up should prove to be very entertaining for those of you whom enjoy seeing plenty of runs! 10* OVER the total in Washington

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up Sunday should lead to an easy over. The Padres Eric Lauer shows the betting markets a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts but he does have a 1.50 WHIP during this stretch. The San Diego southpaw has been hit hard on the road this season. The Padres are 1-5 in his road starts this season and he has compiled a 5.83 ERA and 1.94 WHIP away from home. That means Lauer is allowing about 2 baserunners per inning when on the road. The wind will be blowing out at a good clip at AT & T Park Sunday and the Giants have won 5 of their last 7 games and averaged scoring about 5 runs per game in the victories. San Francisco will have Dereck Rodriguez on the mound in this one. The rookie right-hander is going through the "growing pains" of pitching in the majors and has allowed 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Rodriguez has a 6.28 ERA during this stretch and the Giants are 3-0 to the over in those 3 starts. The over is 19-10 in San Francisco's games versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Giants are 19-11 to the over in games against left-handed starters. SF also is 41-27 to the over in games where they are a home fave of -125 to -175 and that includes 8-4 this season. More of the same here on a hitter-friendly afternoon by the bay. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Royals win with the only run in the top of the 9th) most will be looking for another under today. After all Lance McCullers has had great numbers this season as well as last year plus Ian Kennedy has a 1.99 ERA in his career starts versus the Astros. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over in this match-up but, as always, it is not without good reason! The fact is that Kennedy allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Houston. Also, on the road this season, Kennedy is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP! As for McCullers, he just faced the Royals Sunday and allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits in 6 innings. Kansas City getting a 2nd shot at him in the span of just a week will help them. Also, McCullers has not been as sharp overall in his last 5 starts as he was earlier this season. The Houston right-hander has a 4.91 ERA in his last 5 outings and the over has gone 4-1 in these 5 starts. Even with yesterday's result, the over is still 8-3 in the Astros last 11 games. Prior to the 1-0 loss yesterday, Houston had averaged 11.4 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their 10 previous games. The over is 8-4 in the Astros 12 Saturday games this season. Prior to yesterday's under, the over had gone 11-5-1 in Kansas City's last 17 games versus the Astros. Look for that trend to resume tonight after yesterday's unusual result. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:05 ET - With yesterday's game going 13 innings, each team was forced to use extra bullpen. That is advantage #1 here. Advantage #2 here is that we're getting an extremely low total to work with here because Zach Greinke is on the mound. Certainly the Diamondbacks right-hander is a fantastic veteran pitcher but the numbers this season don't lie! He is much better at home than on the road and the markets just haven't caught up with this yet! Greinke is just 3-4 with an ugly 5.66 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in his 7 road starts this season! He enters this start on an "over streak" of 4 straight overs in his outings. He has given up 20 hits and walked 8 in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. That included a sub-par start versus the Pirates and that outing was at home! As for Joe Musgrove of Pittsburgh, the right-hander had a strong start at Arizona in that same series in which Greinke pitched. That is causing the markets to over-react to him here (keeping this total low) when the reality is that the Diamondbacks are likely to get much better at-bats against him now that they're seeing him for a 2nd game in a span of less than two weeks. The Pirates are 0-3 in Musgrove's last 3 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA during this stretch. The over is 16-5 in Arizona's road games with a money line between +125 and -125 this season. The over is 15-8 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and now this total has dropped to a 7.5 this morning adding even more value to this spot. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I know the Yankees and Rays have both been trending under of late. However, this total has dropped to a 7.5 and I see a lot of value here considering that Tampa Bay is going with another "bullpen start" here and New York's starter is likely to get hit hard. The Rays are starting Ryne Stanek and he has impressive numbers but it doesn't matter that much as he'll only be in the game for an inning or two. The Yankees are starting CC Sabathia and he is coming off of his deepest start of the season. Coincidentally it was against the Rays. Though he held them to just 3 earned runs he did allow 10 hits in the game. In fact, the Yankees southpaw has now given up 21 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Tampa Bay. Don't be surprised when the Rays enjoy some success at the plate in this one tonight. TB's issue tonight will be on the mound and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games and allowed at least 4 runs in all 5 of those losses. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 7 games and have averaged 5.2 runs per game in the 6 victories. I am looking for at least a 5-4 type game here as both teams will enjoy success at the plate. The Yanks lineup too powerful to be shut down by the Rays parade of relievers in this game. The Rays lineup is very familiar with Sabathia and will continue to notch hits against him which will translate to runs. The Rays scored only a single run in their most recent home game but that was preceded by TB averaging 5.4 runs per game in their 8 prior home games and they'll get the job done again here at the plate at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Max Scherzer has pitched extremely well for the Nationals. However, this total has gone from an opener of a 7.5 in some shops to now being as low as a 6.5 in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Orioles are likely to surprise people and score a few here and certainly the Nationals should pound Kevin Gausman. Even thought the Baltimore right-hander has some decent numbers on the season, he has been fading recently and has allowed 23 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings. As strong as Scherzer has been this season he has given up an average of 2 earned runs per start in his last 6 starts. In only 1 of those 6 starts did he allow less than 2 earned runs. The Orioles will step to the plate with some extra confidence in DC tonight because they've won 2 of their last 3 games and have averaged 6 runs on 10 hits per game over their last 4 games. As for the Nationals, they got shutout yesterday but had previously scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their 6 prior games. They'll bounce back here. The Nats had also reached double digits in hits in 4 of their 6 previous games. The over is 3-1 in Gausman's last 4 starts versus the Nationals. Also, Gausman has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Overall, in this 4 road games, the Baltimore right-hander has a 7.08 ERA! Take advantage of the very low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - The first 3 games of this 4-game series have been nuts and all 3 games flew over the total. That has caused the total on this game to move from an 11 to an 11.5 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the under here given this pitching match-up. Keep in mind, the last two games totaled 18 runs each. But out of those 36 runs scored only 5 runs were scored between the 6th and 9th innings. In other words, if we get good starts from the Mets Steven Matz and Rockies Kyle Freeland - and this is likely - we should be in good shape given the inflated total here. Matz has been fantastic on the road this season as he has a 1.55 ERA in his 6 road starts. Also, the Mets lefty has started versus the Rockies 4 times in his career and only one of those starts was a poor one and that outing did NOT occur at Coors Field. In fact, his lone career start at Coors Field was a respectable one. Overall, other than one poor outing, the other 3 starts that Matz has made versus Colorado have seen him compile a solid 3.18 ERA. Since he enters this start in top form I expect another strong outing here. As for the Rockies Freeland, he has been fantastic at home this season. The Colorado southpaw has compiled a 2.94 ERA in his 5 home starts this season and 80% of those have stayed under the total! His only career start versus the Mets (last month) stayed under the total and the starts Matz has made versus the Rockies have seen 3 of the 4 stay under the total. The under has cashed 13 of 21 in New York's day games this season and also 13 of 21 when the Mets are facing a team with a losing record. The under has cashed 13 of 19 when the Rockies are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Going against the masses here and expecting a very well pitched game here. 10* UNDER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Oakland A's @ 3:40 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the A's were 6-0 to the over in their 6 games prior to Tuesday's 4-2 extra inning win. Oakland will be starting Frankie Montas in this one. I am well aware that he has some impressive numbers this season. However, I am also aware that he had a 7.03 ERA last season and was hit at a .302 clip. Montas has made only 4 starts this season and he has been hit at a .262 clip so I am not completely sold on him just yet. The ball does carry better in day games at Petco Park. I feel we have good value as a result because San Diego also is starting a pitcher whom could struggle some here. Joey Lucchesi has good numbers on the season but is returning from a stint on the disabled list. Before being put on the shelf with an injury, the Padres lefty had given up 7 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers) in his last 3 starts. The A's are playing with a lot of confidence right now thanks to 3 straight wins and the over is 4-2 in Lucchesi's 6 home starts this season. The Padres have lost 3 straight games and the over is 3-1 this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2:20 ET - With the wind blowing in today we're getting a very manageable number on this total. Both games of yesterday's double-header stayed under the total and that adds to the value here as these are two very potent lineups and they'll be ready to explode with a big game this afternoon. Keep in mind, the Cubs Jon Lester has struggled the last two times he has faced the Dodgers. Once was in the post-season last year and the other prior start was in the regular season in May. Neither went well for the Cubs southpaw. Although Los Angeles has a low batting average versus lefties this season, they lead the majors in doubles versus left-handers and that is why their slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling here. He has been pitching very well but the Cubs have a .340 on base percentage in day games this season and that is #1 in the National League. With a low posted total of only 7 runs here, I love the value with the over in this one. Too much potency in both lineups for this low of a total no matter the weather nor pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - These teams combined for 11 runs on 22 hits yesterday and I expect another slugfest tonight. The Diamondbacks are now 15-4 to the over this season in road games with a money line between +125 and -125. Arizona has averaged 10 hits per game in their last dozen games. The over is 8-3-1 in these 12 games. The over is 2-1 in the 3 road starts that the Dbacks Matt Koch has made this season. 2 of his last 3 starts have been good ones but Koch faced the Mets and Marlins in the 2 strong starts and both of those lineups are much weaker than the Angels lineup he will face today. The most recent road start Koch made saw him allow 7 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings of work. The over is 7-0-1 in the Angels last 8 games as they have not had an under since June 9th! Los Angeles has averaged 5.4 runs on 9.8 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Angels issue today however won't be at the plate it will be on the mound. Felix Pena will be making his first ever major league start. Out of the bullpen, since the start of the 2017 season, Pena has a 5.59 ERA and has given up 10 homers in 37 innings as a reliever during this time. Walks have also been an issue for Pena at the MLB level and that has played a role in his sub-par 1.57 WHIP since the start of last season. Simply put, the way the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats right now I do not seeing this going well at all for Pena. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play because both of the starting pitchers in this match-up have had their games trend under all season long. Each starter has made 14 starts this season and only 3 of Cole Hamels starts and 2 of Jason Hammel's starts have resulted in an over this year! This his helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Hammel had a great start versus Texas recently but they are likely to fare much better in a 2nd look at him just three weeks later. Note that Hammel has allowed 22 hits in 19 and 1/3 innings in his 3 starts since the strong outing versus the Rangers. The Royals right-hander has a 5.00 ERA on the season. As for Hamels, the Rangers southpaw is off of a strong start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his 3 prior starts and that included the start versus Kansas City. Now the Royals get a quick second look at him 3 weeks later and this time it is at Kauffman Stadium. Yesterday's game was 5-3 by the 4th inning and yet it still didn't go over the total. This is adding to the value here because the Rangers bullpen is certainly nothing special and the Royals bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. In other words, the lack of late scoring in yesterday's game was certainly unexpected. Today will make up for that. Also, the over is a long-term 35-20 in Rangers Tuesday games and that includes Texas going 8-2 to the over on Tuesdays this season. The Royals had gone over the total in 3 straight games entering this series. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost back to back games and were held to a total of just 4 runs in their last two games. However, that is leading to line value here as Arizona had previously won 7 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 8.5 runs per game during this hot streak. The Angels are off of a 6-5 loss yesterday and the over is now 6-0 with one push their last 7 games. The over is 14-4 this season when the Dbacks are on the road and the money line is in a range of +125 to -125. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season. The Diamondbacks Zack Greinke has struggled in his past two starts and has a 5.91 ERA on the season in his 6 road starts. The over is 4-2 in his 6 starts away from home as he has been a different pitcher when on the road. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels here and he has good numbers on the season but has allowed a total of 5 homers in his last 3 starts. Barria was hit hard i his most recent start and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse. He won't be so fortunate here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs won yesterday's game 6-3 making it an over or a push for all over players on the total. Chicago has now scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I feel the Cardinals Jack Flaherty is in trouble here. I know he has pitched well overall on the season but he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and this could be a sign of things to come for the rookie right-hander. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and the Cubs have plenty of confidence as they've been heating up and have won 7 of their last 10 games. Look for St Louis to also get their sticks going today as they face Jose Quintana. The Cubs left-hander was fortunate to not allow any earned runs (all 3 were unearned) in his start at St Louis last month. Quintana gave up 5 hits plus walked 4 in only 4 innings of work. He has allowed 4 homers in his last 15 and 2/3 innings versus the Cardinals. Both teams hit the ball quite well yesterday (19 hits) and I expect this to continue today. The Cards are very familiar with Quintana and though the Cubs are not familiar with Flaherty, there are some signs that the rookie's campaign is about to encounter a bumpy stretch of road. Prior to a strong start against a weak Padres lineup he allowed 10 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for a start along those lines here but look for the Cardinals to also pound Quintana in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Top Play SPECIAL - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his last two starts! The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed 10 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his last two road starts! Oakland is 5-0 to the over their last 5 games after yesterday's game went over the total. That result also brought Los Angeles to 5-0 to the over (and one push) their last 6 games. Only 3 of Mengden's 9 home starts this season have resulted in an under. Amazingly, none of Heaney's 5 road starts have gone over the total even though he has a 5.68 ERA away from home on the season. This is helping to give line value here because this is a "false trend" as Heaney has not pitched well on the road an yet his starts away from home are 0-4 to the over (and one push) on the season. Take advantage of the low total here because both pitchers are struggling and both teams have been trending over of late. It is the perfect combo, particularly on a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out at Oakland Coliseum, for a slugfest. Both these pitchers have been giving up the long ball of late. Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 bombs and Mengen has given up 6 dingers in his last 2 starts! 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - These are two high-quality lineups here and, after yesterday's game finished with 13 runs, I expect the fireworks to continue at the plate on Saturday. I am well aware of Steven Wright's long-term consecutive innings scoreless streak but this is still just his 3rd start of the season. His first two came against the Tigers and Orioles and both of those clubs pale in comparison to the Mariners lineup! Also, Safeco Field may not result in the typical knuckleball movement that Wright relies on so much. As for the Mariners starter today, Wade LeBlanc gets the call. The southpaw has an impressive ERA so far this season but in his last 3 starts he has given up 4 homers. In his last two starts LeBlanc has given up 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 9 innings of work. The over is 8-2-1 in the Mariners last 11 games. The over is 9-3 in Seattle's Saturday games this season. This is Boston's 12th Saturday game of the season and, thus far, only 4 of them have stayed under the total. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play based on the low ERA each of these two pitchers have had this season but I feel they are both over-rated at this point. At the same time, I also feel this match-up features two of the more "dangerous" lineups in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total by the top of the 2nd inning. The over is now an incredible 14-1 in the Rockies last 15 games. Colorado continues to crush the ball and the Rangers, though not the team they once use to be, are still certainly a better hitting team at home than on the road. Also, Texas has fared better against southpaws than righties this season. The Rangers should "tee off" against Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 18 innings spanning those 3 outings. Texas counters with Mike Minor. I know the Rangers left-hander is off of a quality start versus the Astros but those types of outings have truly been rare for him. Minor has a 5.65 ERA on the season and has given up 11 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. The over is 3-0 in the Rangers last 3 games versus a southpaw starter and Texas is 13-7 to the over versus lefties on the season. The Rangers also are 8-4 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Rockies are 14-7 to the over this season in road games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125 this season. More of the same Saturday as the Rockies over trending continues rolling strong. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending over recently. The Reds are 9-3 to the over their last 12 games and the Pirates are 3-0 to the over their last 3 games. Great value being offered here with a manageable low total in this one considering a struggling Matt Harvey takes to the mound for the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Harvey has a 6.44 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 4-2 in those games. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has received great run support in his home starts this season and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Harvey enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. Kuhl enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati was off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 prior games. Pittsburgh was also off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games as well. The Reds are a long-term 19-10 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Cincy is also 40-21 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Pirates are 19-10 to the over this season when off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 5-4 home loss, Yankees games have now stayed under the total in 8 straight games. Hence the title of this play as it most certainly is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I love fading the masses and this one definitely falls into that category. This total already dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and that is because of the Yankees "under streak" as well as the fact that the Rays Blake Snell is having a great season. The key to the value here is that this is a match-up issue for Snell. The Tampa Bay southpaw has allowed 9 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at Yankee Stadium. Snell will have his hands full here with a Yankees lineup that is fired up off of a loss last night. The over is 13-5 this season in Yanks games when they are off of a loss. Also, the over is 18-11 in Yankees games versus teams with a losing record this season. Tampa Bay is 6-1 to the over in Thursday games this season. The Rays are 6-2 to the over as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season. The Yankees are starting Domingo German in this one and he is still winless in his 6 starts this season and has compiled a 6.00 ERA in those outings. This is a contrarian play all the way but it is precisely the type of play that hits more often than not and I love the additional value here with the line move on the total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners won again yesterday with another big day at the plate and they are now 10-2 their last 12 games. Seattle has averaged 4.7 runs and 9.3 hits per game their last 13 games! The Angels have not been hitting as well but they are ranked 10th out of 30 in the majors for slugging percentage versus southpaws. The last time they faced Marco Gonzales they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. The over is 6-1-1 in the Mariners last 8 games. Garret Richards gets the start for the Angels here and he has struggled in day games this season with an 8.59 ERA and a 2.45 WHIP in his two starts. The way the Mariners are hitting, look for him to have an outing more like the two starts against the M's prior to the May outing this season. Not only is this a rather quick 2nd look for Seattle, Richards had allowed 7 earned runs in 12 innings (8 walks) in his 2 starts versus the Mariners that preceded that May outing. Take advantage of the low total here. The value is why this one earns top play status. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - The Cubs got shutout last night and I expect them to respond big this afternoon. The over is 36-24 in Chicago's Wednesday games in recent seasons and the Brewers Jhoulys Chacin has a 6.39 ERA in his last two starts versus National League foes. The Cubs Mike Montgomery has been successful in his first 3 starts this season but Milwaukee has proven to be a nemesis for him in recent meetings. He has faced them twice in the past 11 months and he was rocked both times. Montgomery compiled a 22.85 ERA versus the Brewers last season and he'll have his hands full again here. Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 5 games and has averaged 6.6 runs per game during this 5-game stretch. The Cubs had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 road games before being shutout yesterday. In other words, a bounce back is likely here. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montgomery's 5 career starts versus the Cubs. The over is 3-0 the last 3 times the Brewers faced a southpaw starter and another one flying over appears likely here given the lefty's long-term struggles versus this lineup. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - Both these teams have been trending under lately but that has resulted in added value here. The total opened up at a 10 but dropped to a 9.5 even though this game has the makings of a slugfest. Chicago's Jame Shields recently complained about being tired of the rebuild with the White Sox. That was after the game where he allowed 3 solo homers. So how did he follow up that outing? Shields allowed 3 homers AGAIN in his very next start and it was a much uglier outing as he allowed 7 earned runs in 6 inning of work. That is 6 homers allowed in 2 starts for Shields and he is now 12-33 since the start of the 2016 season and he has compiled a 5.46 ERA during this 3-year stretch. With the White Sox he has allowed 68 homers in 56 starts! He'll be opposed by the Indians Adam Plutko in this one. Though he has had good numbers at the minor league level it has yet to translate to success in the bigs. Plutko was called up from AAA to make this start and the bad news for him is that his most recent MLB start was also against the White Sox. That means Chicago is getting a rather quick "second look" at him and they got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings the first time they faced him. Also. the Indians bullpen is dead last in the majors based on ERA while the ChiSox bullpen also ranks very low based on BAA as opponents are hitting .260 versus their relievers. Another reason to expect the slugfest today is Plutko has allowed 5 homers in his 3 MLB starts! 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - CC Sabathia is off of a solid outing although he did allow 2 homers in that start. However, the key to the value here is that in his 4 prior starts he gave up 20 runs (including 16 earned runs) over a span of just 18 and 1/3 innings. The Yankees lefty certainly hasn't been sharp and now he faces a quality Nationals lineup in this one. The over is 4-2 in Sabathia's 6 home starts this season. Washington's Tanner Roark has solid numbers this season but his style of pitching is precisely the style that could get him into trouble against a slugging lineup like the Yankees have. In his last 3 appearances (2 starts) he has a 5.54 ERA. The Yanks are off of a rare shutout loss Sunday night versus the Mets and they are 13-4 to the over this season when off of a loss. New York is also 9-4 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Yankees are 10-3 to the over as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Nationals are playing after an off day. Like the Yankees, the Nats are also off of a 2-0 shutout loss Sunday. Washington had previously scored an average of 7.7 runs and 11.3 hits per game in their 3 prior games. The Yankees are still 9-2 their last 11 games and have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 9 victories. You can see why I am expecting this one to get to double digits in runs scored! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game