MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this play regardless of starters but will start with discussing the expected starting pitchers first. Joey Wentz has some solid numbers in limited action this season but his worst start was at home. Also, the big key here as he makes just the 6th start of his MLB career is the fact that he is facing the same team he saw a few weeks ago. This is the first time he has ever had to go a 2nd start against a team he already faced. Oftentimes young pitchers are more hittable in situations like this. As for Zack Greinke, he is known for often being stronger at home than on the road and this season that trending has been particularly pronounced. While he is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA at home, Greinke is 0-7 with a 6.36 ERA on the road this season! Huge home/road dichotomy for him. Tigers have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 5 victories. Royals have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs in this one despite it being a chilly evening in Detroit for this one. Not cold but definitely cool but again the numbers show us what we should expect here and it should certainly be more than 8 given all of the above. 10* OVER 8 in Detroit

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers as this is a hitter-friendly ballpark and hitter-friendly conditions are expected tonight. However, I will start with the expected starters here. The Orioles Jordan Lyles has a 5.48 ERA in road games this season and that is 2 runs higher than his home ERA. Also, the Red Sox have hammered Lyles this season and have hit him particularly hard last 3 meetings with 15 earned runs in just 12 innings. Boston has 25 hits in those 12 innings! As for Red Sox starter Connor Seabold, he has struggled in limited action in his MLB career. He is now 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA and .395 BAA in his 4 starts this season. Red Sox sticks struggled in weekend series with Yankees but now they are back at home. Boston is 8-4 last dozen home games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Baltimore cooled off after a hot run from late July to mid-August. However, the Orioles still have a respectable lineup that enters this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. More of the same expected here as they bounce back from a 6-3 loss versus Houston yesterday. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:08 ET - Usually the way these series start is the way they go all the way through and this has been another high-scoring one between these teams. We just need 9 runs to be a winner with this one and each of the first 3 games in this series have reached at least that and yesterday's totaled a dozen runs. The last 15 games between these rivals have averaged about 11 runs per game and I look for another high-scoring one tonight. I know Cortes has good numbers for the Yankees this season but he did struggled in his first start against Boston this season. I know the second one, earlier this month, did go better for him but I like the way the Red Sox have been swinging the bats again and they have confidence heading into this one. As for Bello, he has a 0.90 ERA last two starts but that is deceiving as he has given up 14 hits in 10 innings spanning those two outings! One of those was against the Yankees and now they hit him harder in the rematch. He has been very hittable this season and gets hit hard here again. No matter the starting pitchers, I expect this one to fly over the total! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Another high-scoring game expected here. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games this season when they meet up and that resumed yesterday after a strange result Friday when the teams went a combined 3 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Now the runs are flowing in and that continues on a mild Sunday afternoon in Denver. Coors Field will see the ball carrying very well in this one and Clevinger is known for struggling on the road and this is not an easy venue to pitch in and he has struggled here this season. At the same time, Freeland is known for struggling more at home (naturally with the venue) and he has struggled against the Padres when facing them here this season. Off a 9-run outburst yesterday fueled by a 6-run inning, San Diego has extra confidence at the plate today and this one should get crazy as Rockies have yet to score well in this series and I sense they will mash today. It is not often they do not score well at home throughout a series and this is the right spot for them to smash the ball. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado had just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout Thursday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, I expected the runs to start pouring in now with the Padres coming to town. However, the teams went a ridiculous combined 3 of 19 with runners in scoring position yesterday! Look for more clutch hitting today for sure after that nonsense. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego entered this series 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Yu Darvish and Chad Kuhl. Note that Darvish struggles more on the road including going 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. He also has struggled at times against the Rockies in recent seasons. As for Kuhl, he is winless with a 9.00 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 starts since All-Star break. My play is with action on pitchers! I'll take advantage of the line drop to 10.5 here! 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout yesterday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, look for the runs to start pouring in today with the Padres now in town. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego is 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Sean Manaea and Ryan Feltner. Note that Manaea is 2-6 with a 6.10 ERA on the road this season. He also is 2-5 with a 7.63 ERA since the all-star break. As for Feltner, he is 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA in home games this season. Also, he is 2-5 the past two months combined and had a 6.00 ERA last month and has a 7.43 ERA so far this month. My play is with action on the pitchers and there should be plenty of runs in this one! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams combined to go 5 for 22 with runners in scoring position yesterday and that is why our over 8 ended up 1 run shy at 7 runs. The point is that the opportunities were there but the teams just did cash them in. I like coming back with overs in the same match-up the day after a game like that. We get line value here because it will be a cool afternoon with north winds expected in KC. But still the weather is not brutal and I like the fact we get an over 8 here. I am grabbing the over regardless of who ends up starting, my bet is action, but will mention the starting pitchers that are expected here. Josh Winder has struggled and/or been hit hard in all but 1 of his last 7 appearances. Jonathan Heasley is 2-6 with a 6.43 ERA at home and a 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA in day games this season. Yes this is an afternoon game at Kaufmann Stadium so both those factors are in play here. Here we get payback after yesterday's tough result. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love the fact this total dropped to 8 runs even though both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday. Look for both lineups to stay hot here in another meaningless late season season. Indeed I love overs in games like this in the final couple weeks of season because the batters are so relaxed at the plate. It does matter too that both teams are out of contention not just one because if one team is in contention the other will try to play the role of spoiler too and then there is some extra pressure on each team really. In games like this one there is, as noted above, no pressure and the team should swing the bats well again. I really don't care who the pitchers are but will mention that Ober has not pitched a whole lot this season but when he did he faced the Royals a couple times and they got to him in the 2nd outing. Same thing last season too and so Kansas City has a lot of experience against him and it will continue to pay off. The KC starter here is expected to be Lynch and he has struggled badly over his last 5 starts and is showing no signs of turning things around. Look for the Minnesota sticks to take advantage. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Cardinals were 36-13 last 49 games before a shutout loss Sunday. St Louis has been hot for a very long time and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game last 50 games. Just feel we have good value with the low total here. Yes it is a night game in San Diego but note that the Padres have won 13 of 21 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 13 victories and have allowed a ridiculous average of 9 runs per game in those 8 defeats. Could this be another high-scoring game? Regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action as always) I do feel we are looking at big runs here. Clevinger the expected starter for SDG and has been getting crushed with a 10.13 ERA this month plus in his last 5 starts he has allowed at least one homer in each and is giving up average of nearly 2 homers per start during this stretch! As for the Cards Wainwright, the long-term story on him has been that of success at home but a general tendency to struggle at times on the road. Wainwright has a 2.61 ERA in STL this season but a 4.31 ERA on the road. More of the same here as Padres high-scoring trending in ballgames continues here. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego

MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers. You can tell by the line on this one that there decent odds that Braves win this game by at least a 3 run margin. That means if Nationals get to at least 3 runs you are likely looking at a 6-3 game here and a winning ticket. Note that Washington had scored at least 3 runs in 18 of last 21 games before being held under that in each of the defeats in their current 2-game losing streak. Overall, the Nats averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 21 games. This team can hit a little and has the type of decent sticks too that can give Morton some trouble. Charlie Morton is the expected starter for the Braves and he has actually allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and 3 of his last 4 overall! The Washington starter here is expected to be Patrick Corbin and he is 6-18 with a 6.11 ERA this season. He occasionally comes  up with a strong start at home but rarely ever on the road! In fact, Corbin is 2-11 with a 7.83 ERA on the road and opponents are hitting .363 against him in his outings away from home. No matter the pitchers, note that the Braves are 13-4 last 17 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 9 wins. Look for the home team to roll in this one on a hot night in Georgia and the weather also helps the bats in this one as both teams crush the ball and it carries well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta

MLB Monday 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Part of the reason for action on pitchers here is Arizona has some uncertainty about who they will start here. But what we do know is that it won't be Zac Gallen or Ryne Nelson because those guys just pitched. That said, the Diamondbacks other starting options are not impressive other than Merrill Kelly but if he pitches here, note that he is having a phenomenal season EXCEPT for when facing the Dodgers. They have had his number this season. So the point is no matter who pitches here for either team I like the over. I know that Clayton Kershaw is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he just had success against the Diamondbacks last week when he faced them. However, he did not record a lot of strikeouts in that one and they seemed to get a little better wood on him as the game went on. I am expecting success from both clubs at the plate tonight as the Diamonbacks are back on the road where they have gone 8-5 last 13 and scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game during that stretch. As for Dodgers they have won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during yet another hot streak for this red hot LA team. 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Very warm weather in Denver by September standards. The ball is going to be carrying well here no matter who is on the mound and should be plenty of relaxed hitters at the plate. Rockies love hitting at home and the playoff pressure is off for the Giants as they have faded out of the playoff picture. That means hitters should have huge games in this one. So I will quickly touch on the pitchers but, again, my play is action on pitcher. Jakob Junis is 0-5 with a 5.29 ERA since the All Star break. Chad Kuhl is 0-4 with an 8.90 ERA since the All Star break! Those are the expected starters and both are having a rough time in recent months. As for Rockies games and how they have been trending at home, note that their last 17 games at Coors Field have averaged 13.4 runs per game! Yes the Giants have struggled recently at the plate but their 6 games at Coors Field this season have seen the teams combined to average 12 runs per game and they even had some big games at home against Rockies too. San Francisco will get their bats going here but they will need all the runs they can get because hosts should have huge game too given all of the above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - This is the biggest total on the board Sunday in MLB with a 9.5 across the board. I am not questioning the big number in the least. This is a superb value spot because double digits fully expected here. The Royals just exploded for 9 runs on 15 hits yesterday. Also, the Red Sox are sure to respond after a rare shutout loss at Fenway Park. With Kris Bubic on the mound I fully expect the big response here. The KC lefty having a very rough season and it is not getting any better. Since the start of August he is 0-6 and opponents are hitting about .350 against him. As for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, he struggled against the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium earlier this season and now has to face them at Fenway Park where he has a 4.78 ERA and opponents are hitting .274 against him. Last season he had a 5.40 ERA at home too so this is no fluke and he has allowed 30 homers in last 30 starts here! No matter the starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), I like the over here. Boston had won 8 of 14 games prior to yesterday's shutout and they scored an average of 7 runs in those victories. In their last 10 losses they have allowed an average of 6.3 runs. The Royals had been slumping lately but yesterday's game will get them rolling again and their 6 games against the Red Sox this season have averaged 10 runs per game. This one gets to double digits too! 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston 

Friday MLB 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Action on pitchers. We don't even know for sure who the Reds pitcher is going to be and could end up being a bullpen game for Cincinnati. Even with St Louis, even though scheduled starter is Jack Flaherty, that means it might even be a heavy bullpen game for them too. Flaherty has averaged only 3 and 2/3 innings his five starts this season. He has struggled by the way and often had command issues. So this one shapes up to have plenty of runs as Cincinnati should be able to get their sticks going in this one. Yesterday's game was a 3-2 Reds win but victories have been few and far between for Cincy and Cardinals likely to bounce back with a win here. What is the significance of that as it relates to this total? Well, St Louis is 33-13 last 46 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 25 victories! In other words look for the Cards to score plenty here but I also expect the Reds to have success at the plate too given the overall uncertain pitching situation here with Flaherty struggling and the bullpen likely relied on for too much here. Reds have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in a 6-game losing streak that preceded yesterday's win. This total in the 8 or 8.5 range simply seems too low given all of the above and also very hitter-friendly weather expected at Busch Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres expected to start Sean Manea and the Diamondbacks expected to start Drey Jameson. Note that Manea is 2-4 with an 8.15 ERA since the All Star break. The San Diego lefty is also 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA on the road this season. As for Arizona's Jameson, he is 5-12 with a 6.95 ERA this season and that is not even at the MLB level. In fact, this is his MLB debut and those stats are at the AAA level. Look for to get pummeled here. Regardless of the pitchers that start, again my play is action, note that Padres have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 8-4 last 12 road games. The Dbacks are riding the momentum of a walk-off 3-run homer for the win last night over the Dodgers. Yes a couple of tough shutouts were handed to them by LA before that but, prior to the Los Angeles series, some big high-scoring games in Arizona. Heading into that series, the Dbacks were 15-8 last 23 home games and averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game! 9 of last 13 of those games had totaled double digits in runs scored. More of the same expected here on Thursday night. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is another case where we are getting value on the line because of market perception being much different from reality of the situation upon closer inspection. In this one, the A's are known as a light hitting team and Dunning has low ERA at home on the season and Sears has low ERA overall on the season for Oakland. That said, this looks like a dead under, right? I don't think so. When I looked into this match-up after seeing the line move from 8.5 down to as low as 7.5, I really liked what I saw here. First off, Sears has been struggling more of late including getting rocked by White Sox in his most recent start. The Athletics lefty has allowed 28 hits in 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. As for Texas right-hander Dunning, he has allowed 29 hits in just under 20 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts! This included 2 home starts too and overall it was 15 runs (14 earned) in this span of 19 and 2/3 innings. The point is that Dunning has not been dominant of late and neither has Sears yet this game being priced like we are going to see a pitchers duel. I just don't see it even though these are not good hitting teams. The fact is that Oakland has seen 7 straight games and 10 of last 13 total at least 8 runs! In fact, those 13 games have averaged 11.4 runs per game! The Rangers last 20 games have averaged totaling 10.7 runs per game. Also, 10 of last 14 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. I am confident this one will too after each team hit well again in last night's meeting. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:45 ET - Action on this play. Regardless of the starting pitchers I am going over here but it is because of the expected starting pitching match-up here that we are getting phenomenal line value. To the naked eye, Charlie Morton facing Carlos Rodon looks like a pitchers duel. But look closer and you see something much different. Morton actually has struggled in all 4 of his road starts since the All Star break. He has compiled a 6.85 ERA on the road in the 2nd half of the season! As for Rodon, yes he has great numbers this season but Braves have a great record against left-handed starters this season. Part of the reason is they hit lefties very well with a .269 batting average and .457 slugging percentage. Out of 30 MLB teams, those numbers are good for 2nd in the majors and 3rd in the majors, respectively. I know Rodon can be tough but the Braves are 24-8 last 32 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Giants are not known for high-scoring ways but still had scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning 4 straight home games before yesterday's low-scoring loss. Look for runs here from both clubs in this series finale as it surprises under players just looking at the names of starting pitchers. Action on this play as per usual. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers. But will start the analysis there as expected starters are Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan. Note that Bubic is having a very rough season and also got rocked at Minnesota in his most recent start versus Twins. Ryan has much better numbers than Bubic on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in last 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, KC seeing him for 4th time this season and they are hitting him a little harder each and every time. Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 13 games overall and 5 runs per game last 6 road games. Twins, before a 4-1 loss to the Guardians Sunday, had been scoring well in home games and were averaging 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. Lot of value here with a rather low total for this one and I am taking this match-up as my top total for the day and expecting double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota

MLB Monday 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will quickly mention them here. This one jumped off the page at me because Tyler Anderson is 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA this season and Ryne Nelson pitched 7 scoreless innings in his MLB debut yet the opening total on this was a 9. That tells you a lot right there and the fact is there is more than meets the eye at first glance here. First off, Nelson had a 5.43 ERA in AAA ball this season so lets not get carried away after just 1 start. Don't be surprised if he struggles with this potent Dodgers lineup in his 2nd start. He won't be the first rookie pitcher that happened to and won't be the last. A lot of times these guys come up and have a great first start but then struggle in the 2nd. This is what I expect with Nelson here. As for Anderson, he has been a little more hittable of late and this has been particularly true on the road. Other than a strong start at Miami (and the Marlins are so bad at the plate!) Anderson allowed 10 earned runs on 21 hits in 18 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Now he is at Arizona and the Diamondbacks are 15-8 in 23 home games since the All-Star break and averaged about 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. Overall, the Dbacks have allowed 7 runs per game in their current 1-4 stretch entering this game. The Dodgers are on a 6-2 run entering this game and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game last 8 games! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Just like the weather today, the bats will again heat up in Denver and that is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers. I had my eyes on yesterday's match-up because it involved couple hurlers likely to struggle but I stayed away from the game as I knew the weather was going to be very chilly and ugly and it was. The game ended just 4-1 with temperatures hovering around just 50 degrees. Today the temp at first pitch should be 70 and by games end it is likely to have hit 80 degrees. Unlike yesterday, bright sunshine and the ball will carry like crazy in the thin air here. Certainly I know Zac Gallen has an incredible scoreless innings streak going. I am well aware as it is actually the 8th longest of all-time. I am here to tell you it will end today and I think Dbacks should have pushed him back to Monday at home, even against the Dodgers, instead of having to pitch in the best hitters park in baseball today. I know one of the games in his scoreless streak was actually here BUT he faced the Rockies twice in early July and they got to him for 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work. They will hit him again today as they build off yesterday's win and Cron's huge homer. As for the Dbacks bats, they will have no problems with Ryan Feltner here. He has struggled overall this season as well as against Arizona and they again get to him here. No matter the pitching match-up, the bats come back to life in the warmer weather today and I will take advantage of this lower total at Coors Field. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. One of the reasons for that is you really can't trust either of these scheduled starters to go very long in this one. Anderson has struggled and hardly pitched. Houser also has disappointed and has hardly pitched in recent weeks. So if those guys go (I really don't care) that should get us rolling here with some early runs. The key factor is the potency with which I expect the teams to hit here. Reds have scored an average of 7 runs in last 10 victories but allowed an average of 6.5 runs last 13 losses. The Brewers are 6-2 last 8 home games and scored an average of 6 runs in the 6 victories. Milwaukee has allowed a ridiculous average of 7 runs in last dozen losses. In other words, no matter the victor here, you can see why I am expecting runs from the Brewers as well as Cincinnati in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The A's got rocked yesterday but have been scoring some runs of late. The lost 14-2 yesterday but had averaged 4.5 runs per game in their 8 games before the ugly loss. That said, this total at 7.5 sure seems a little too low. Oakland has seen 6 of their last 9 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game! The White Sox enter this one having won 7 of last 9 games and their last 10 games have averaged 9.5 runs totaled per game. Looking for at least 8 runs here regardless of the pitchers but I will touch on them here. Kaprielian has given up a lot of hits as only one start in August was solid and the other 5 combined he was hit at over a .300 clip. As for Giolito, he has been getting hit quite hard and remember in late May his ERA was 2.63 and it now about double that on the season! The point is that he has regressed all season and I look for the A's to respond after taking a thrashing yesterday and they will do some damage at the plate here today. White Sox bats stay hot too. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Friday 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Great value here with both teams coming off low-scoring losses Wednesday. Now this pitching match-up is conducive to an over but I like both lineups to bounce back regardless of the starting pitchers. I will start there though by mentioning that Voth has a 4.70 ERA and .313 BAA in home games and a 6.70 ERA and a .316 BAA in night games this season. Bello is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in night games this season. Bello is getting hit at a .321 clip so far this season. As far as the strength of these two lineups, Red Sox were 5-2 last 7 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game in that 7-game stretch before a tough 1-0 loss. Boston's last 8 games before the loss Wednesday had averaged 11 runs per game. Baltimore had won 5 of 8 before their 4-1 loss Wednesday. In those 8 games they averaged 4.5 runs scored per game. The Orioles will hit here at home but the Red Sox resume their stronger hitting too. The result is that this one should fly over the rather low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals bullpen imploded in last night's 6-5 loss as they gave up 5 runs in bottom of 9th. Now Josiah Gray the expected starter and he has walked 9 while striking out just 5 in his last 10 innings. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and that was 2nd time in last 4 road starts that he has been charged with 6 earned runs. Gray also allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Cardinals and that was at home. Now he faces them at St Louis where there are known to hit better than on the road. The Cards expected starter here is Adam Wainwright. He generally pitches better at home than on the road. So I definitely respect this factor but this is also what is keeping this total too low in my opinion. Keep in mind, regardless of starting pitchers here I like this total. The Nationals bullpen showed what they are capable of last night in the ugly blown game. Also, the Washington lineup has produced 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games! That is not bad at all and I feel the Nats will find a way again in this one but they will not be able to slow down the Cardinals! The Cards have won 11 of 15 and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 11 victories. More of the same here. 10* OVER 7.5 in St Louis

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET - The Royals off B2B losses but had scored 5.7 runs per game in the 6-6 stretch prior to this series. Kansas City, before the 4-1 home loss yesterday, had seen 10 of last 13 games total at least 8 runs so I feel very comfortable here with this over regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have trended toward lower scoring games for sure but have scored 4 runs per game last 3 and had allowed 5 runs per game last 4 before the 4-1 win yesterday. I look for runs here on a warm evening at Kaufmann Stadium regardless of the pitchers but will touch on them here. Cody Morris struggled in his first start for Cleveland and now makes his first ever road start at the MLB level. The Royals are expected to have Zack Greinke on the mound and though he normally pitches well at home, he has been getting hit harder of late including at home. He had a .333 BAA in the month of August and I expect the Guardians to get to him here. Greinke has struggled a bit in his last five starts. Regardless of starting pitchers here, look for this to fly over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday's game exploded late and ended up a 10-7 final in extra innings. The late game explosion is nothing new in games at Coors Field and I am expecting another wild game today on an unseasonably warm afternoon in Denver! Lauer has been great at home for the Brewers this season but he has a mediocre 4.03 ERA on the road and a 4.72 ERA in his day game starts this year. Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch and right now it is unseasonably warm in Denver too. So all signs point to the hitters ruling the afternoon here. As for Freeland, he has having a horrible run in home starts. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 20.1 innings over his 4 home starts. Brewers will take advantage and, prior to yesterday's 10-7 loss, were 6-4 last 10 games and they scored at least 6 runs in all 6 wins. Milwaukee has allowed an average of 6.5 runs in last 8 losses. The Rockies have been struggling but a lot of that was on the road. Before being held to 4 runs in Monday's home loss, Colorado had won 6 of 11 home games. The Rockies last 13 home games have averaged 13 runs per game. We get at least a dozen here in my opinion regardless of the starting pitchers. Take action on pitches and watch these lineups be as hot as the Denver weather! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday's game was 6-3 in top of the 6th but ended up with only 10 runs by the end of the game. That is unusual for a Coors Field game and today will make up for it. Woodruff has been great at home for the Brewers this season but he has a mediocre 4.67 ERA on the road and Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch and right now it is unseasonably warm in Denver too. So all signs point to the hitters ruling the evening here. As for Kuhl, he has having a horrible run. He had an 8.71 ERA in his 5 July starts. He has been a little better in his last 2 starts since returning to the rotation but still struggling overall and his first August start was a disaster and so last 3 starts overall he has allowed 15 earned runs in 14.2 innings. Brewers will take advantage and are 6-4 last 10 games and have scored at least 6 runs in all 6 wins. Milwaukee has allowed an average of 6 runs in last 7 losses. The Rockies have been struggling but a lot of that was on the road. Before being held to 4 runs in yesterday's home loss, Colorado had won 6 of 11 home games. The Rockies last dozen home games have averaged about 13 runs per game. We get at least a dozen here in my opinion regardless of the starting pitchers. Take action on pitches and watch these lineups be as hot as the Denver weather! 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Both these teams got their lineups going yesterday and I am looking for more of the same today. The clubs played a double-header yesterday and combined for 22 runs on 43 hits. The Orioles got swept and will be looking for payback here and should have success against White. He is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA in night action this season. The Blue Jays, and red hot Bichette, should stay hot here against Bradish. The Orioles right-hander is 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers, each bullpen got some extra work because of the double header yesterday and I like the way both teams were swinging the bats yesterday. Take advantage of the low total here. Blue Jays appear to have snapped their recent hitting slump and Orioles known for hitting better at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I know that Snell is a big name pitcher but that is also what is helping to keep this line low. His last two home starts have been a bit shaky, especially his most recent one was bad. The way the Diamondbacks have been hitting of late, I feel strongly they will get to him. Ditto for the Padres getting to Ryne Nelson as well. The right-hander is a rookie making his first start and is not striking out as many batters at the AAA level this season in this minors compared to his earlier seasons. He has been giving up a lot of homers and Padres have some decent long-ball hitters in addition to Machado that can take advantage even though, of course, they have missed Tatis this season. The key is NOT the pitchers in this match-up as my play is action for a reason. The key is that both these teams have been scoring runs quite well and both these teams have been consistently involved in high-scoring games. I am taking advantage of a low total here and it will be a warm late afternoon game in San Diego Monday. The Padres are 6-3 last 9 games and have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during this stretch. 7 of their last 9 games have totaled at least 8 runs. In fact, NONE of their last TEN games have totaled less than 7 runs and the average score during this stretch has been 11.5 runs! The Diamondbacks have won 9 of 12 games! Arizona has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game last dozen games. 10 of last 14 Dbacks games have totaled at least 8 runs and those 14 games averaged 11.7 runs per game totaled. This one should reach double digits and I love the value here. 10* OVER 8 in San Diego Padres

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in LA Angels vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Lot of extra bullpen arms used in last night's lengthy extra-inning affair that the Angels eventually won 2-1. We'll see a lot more scoring here. Action on pitchers as I like the fact Angels had been scoring better of late and Astros one of top teams in MLB and NOT facing Ohtani tonight! That said, lets talk about the pitchers first though they are not the most important factor. Davidson expected to start for Angels and he has a 7.16 ERA in his 4 home appearances this season and has had major command issues on the mound no matter where he pitches with far too many walks this year. As for the Astros Urquidy, he has a 4.24 ERA in road starts this season and the Angels seeing him for the 3rd time this season. That could help them have more success this time around and they have had Trout in the lineup lately and Urquidy has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 starts. This one flies over the total. The Angels have won 6 of 8 games and had averaged scoring 5 runs per game before yesterday's tight 2-1 win in 12 innings! Astros had won 8 of 10 games before yesterday's loss and Houston scored an average of 4.5 runs per game in those 8 victories. Houston on an 18-10 run last 28 games and scored 6.5 runs per game in those 18 wins and of course they are a sizable road favorite here for a reason. Look for a lot of runs in this one. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in LA Angels

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this total no matter who pitches as it is on the low side due in part to the expected pitchers here and the fact Burnes generally is tough on the mound. The Brewers right-hander actually has given up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of last 3 road starts and struggled a bit overall in August with a 4.83 ERA. However, speaking of struggling, Bumgarner is off a winless August in which he went 0-3 with a 9.23 ERA in his 5 starts and opponents hit .373 against him. Brewers lost 2-1 yesterday and were shutout 5-0 the day before. However, prior to this, Milwaukee had won 4 of 5 and scored an average of 6.2 runs per game. The Brewers will get back on track after rare B2B ugly games at the plate. Milwaukee averaging 5.2 runs per game last 5 times they have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 last 10 games and in their last dozen games, even with only a 2-1 win yesterday, have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. You can see why I like this total with action on the pitchers. Great set up here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Arizona

MLB Friday 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rangers have lost 5 straight and 6 of 8 but continues to score plenty of runs. Texas averaging 6.5 runs scored in those 8 games. 6 of the 8 games totaled at least 13 runs. Look for another wild one here. I know Pivetta has pitched well at times recently for the Red Sox he still has a 4.83 ERA at home and has been hit 44 points higher at Fenway Park than on the road this season. Also, Keuchel has been incredibly bad this season. He is with his 3rd team already this season and got hammered again in most recent start and is 2-8 with a ridiculous 8.87 ERA in his 13 starts this season! Remember last season he got rocked too. Sad to see it ending like this but it sure looks like Keuchel is at the final stages of his career. The Red Sox will certainly show no mercy and tend to hit better at home than on the road. Boston has won 6 of last 7 at Fenway Park and 5 of those 7 games totaled at least 11 runs. In fact, the 5 games averaged 14.6 runs apiece. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Washington Nationals vs Oakland A's @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We get line value here because two bad teams are matched up and the A's are so often weak in terms of runs scored. Now we take advantage because Espino is the scheduled starter for the Nationals and he is 0-6 this season. Espino has particularly struggled as a starter and especially at home. In fact, in his last 5 home starts he has allowed at least 3 earned runs all 5 and in 2 of them he allowed 4 earned runs. Espino did not work deep in any of these outings. A's expected starter is Waldichuk and he is a rookie that struggled more when he made the jump from AA to AAA level of minors and now he jumps to the majors. Note that Nationals have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of last 13 home games and scored 5 or more runs in 7 of those 8. Washington is known for scoring better at home than on the road. Oakland had won 3 of 4 road games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to yesterday's 5-1 loss. This is why I like the over regardless of starting pitchers here and feel we have excellent line value with the low total here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Washington

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams involved in high-scoring action thus far and I expect more of the same here regardless of starting pitchers but we'll start there. Falter has decent numbers of late for the Phillies but this is going to be one of the tougher road appearances he has made in awhile. When facing a good team, or a team surging like Dbacks sticks are right now, Falter has struggled on the road this season. As for the Diamondbacks Henry, he has had about as many walks as strikeouts other than one very strong start this season but that one was against Pirates. In other words, his ERA is a little lower than it should be as he has had some good fortune on balls put in play and I feel this is giving us some extra value here as a potent Philadelphia lineup can get to Henry early and often. No matter the pitchers, the Phillies had averaged nearly 6 runs per game last 9 games before the ugly loss last night. As for the Dbacks, they have averaged 7.3 runs per game last 9 games and are feeling extra confident at the plate right now as they are on 5-game winning streak and have reached double digits in runs in 3 of last 4 victories! 10* OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees @ 9:38 ET - Action on pitchers. Angels Sandoval has been red hot in August and is the type of crafty lefty that can keep the Yankees free-swinging lineup off balance. Yankees Cole having another strong campaign, as is Sandoval, and the Yanks right-hander has been practically unhittable last couple road starts. Regardless of pitchers I like the under here as Angels, not including extra innings, entered this series being held to 3 or less runs scored in 12 of last 16 home games! So far in this series they have managed 4 runs in each of the first two games so they still are not exactly knocking the cover off the ball at home. As for the Yankees, they entered last night's game having been had only 2 big games at the plate last 19 games! In the other 17 games the past 3 weeks the Yankees scored an average of only 2 runs per game! Don't be surprised, given the above, if tonight ends up a 3-2 type game! 10* UNDER 7.5 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in LA Angels vs NY Yankees @ 9:38 ET - I know yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Angels have now won 4 straight games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game. I know the Yankees have been slumping but the ball was carrying very well last night in Anaheim and there are a number of big hitters in these lineups. Regardless of the starting pitchers (take action) I like the over in this one. The Angels are expected to start Mayers and he is essentially an opener here. I look for the Yankees to get to him and then their bullpen. As for expected Yankees starter Taillon, he had a 2.30 ERA on the season after his first start in June. Since then, he has a 5.06 ERA. In other words, he has been far from dominant and this Angels lineup is feeling it right now. This one flies over the total regardless of starting pitchers. There were 5 homers in last night's game and there should have been more than 7 runs. Tonight there will be and I am expecting double digits. 10* OVER 8.5 in LA Angels

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Like the Phillies to bounce back off 6-0 shutout home loss yesterday. Also like the Diamondbacks sticks at home though too. Arizona has won 3 straight games and the Dbacks have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games. Philadelphia, prior to ugly loss yesterday, had won 7 of 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. You can see from these numbers why I like the over here. Now will touch on the pitchers but they are not the most important factor. Ranger Suarez had been red hot for the Phillies but then he faded in his most recent start as he got in trouble in the 6th inning. I feel he could be wearing down. Remember he just converted from a reliever to a starter during the season last year. This season he has now thrown more innings than ever before in his MLB career. As for Madison Bumgarner, he has solid numbers overall at home this season but, as of late, it has not matter where he has pitched. The southpaw has been struggling bad and the Phillies have the lumber to take advantage. Bumgarner is 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA since the All Star break and has been hit at over a .300 clip in his last 6 starts combined. He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. No matter the pitchers here, plenty of reason to believe in both lineups in this one as Dbacks get it done at home and a Phillies team that had been hot bounces right back at the plate after yesterday's shutout loss. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers as I look for the Cardinals to ride the wave of momentum off last night's 6-3 win that came courtesy of a big 3-run homer in the bottom of the 8th. The Cardinals are 12-3 last 15 games and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch! The Reds are just 5-5 last 10 games but have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Cincinnati has allowed an average of 6 runs per game last 7 losses and this one with St Louis looks like a slugfest in a hitters park regardless of pitchers. But will mention that Chase Anderson making his first start of this season and he struggled as a starter both in 2020 and 2021 with high ERAs above 6.50 each year. As of Cards starter Miles Mikolas, he has an ERA nearly 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home and this is nothing new for him. Road struggles and home successes have been the pattern for him throughout his recent seasons at the MLB level. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Cincinnati

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the potency of these two lineups and like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will mention them here. Wainwright expected starter for Cardinals and historically he is very strong at home. However, if there is a game for him to get tripped up it is this one. He recently struggled at home versus Yankees this month and they got to him good. In another prior home start versus a high quality lineup, Dodgers, he had to work out of a lot of jams and was fortunate to avoid any damage in that one. Now Wainwright faces a strong Braves lineup and I expect some struggles. As for Atlanta starter Odorizzi, he has consistently shown throughout recent seasons that he struggles more in night games than day outings. It is a marked difference and has been consistent for year after year in recent seasons. That said, the St Louis lineup is a solid one particularly when at home and they can do some damage here. Again, regardless of starting pitchers I like the over here. That is in part because the Cardinals are 11-3 last 14 games and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch! As for Atlanta, they are 15-3 last 18 games and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch. Solid production from each of these lineups expected again tonight. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in St Louis

MLB Saturday 10* OVER 8.5 in Washington @ 7:05 ET - Okay, I know these teams are not very good but neither are the expected starting pitchers here. I am going with action on the pitchers anyway but you are talking about two bad bullpens too and these teams combined for 10 runs in yesterday's game and now we have a total of 8.5 runs with expected starters of Cessa and Espino on the mound? I will take it. Cessa has a 5.67 ERA this season mostly working out of the bullpen but has struggled as a starter just like he did earlier in his career before moving to the bullpen. As for Espino, he is 0-4 with an ERA in the 6.00 range over his 9 starts in July and August. As for the lineups in this one, note that Cincinnati has seen 9 of last 13 games total at least 9 runs. The Reds have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last dozen games. The Nationals did not score well on their recent road trip but their last 8 home games have totaled an average of 10 runs per game. Don't be surprised if this one also gets to double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 in Washington

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Not many will be looking over here because McCullers in on the mound for Astros. However, I am not looking so much at the pitchers here but we'll start there although this play is action. McCullers is making just his 3rd start this season so he is still trying to round into top form and having some command issues with his pitches. Walking too many has been an issue for him throughout his career and though he is still a strong pitcher he is still a little out of sorts since coming back from injury. As for Bradish, he is 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA and teams hitting .318 against him this season. So now the real key is this Orioles team is playing very motivated baseball, off another win yesterday, in the wild card race, and so the lineup has a ton of confidence at the plate right now. Speaking of confidence, of course the Astros remain a very strong hitting club at home as they continue to be one of the top teams in baseball. Houston has won 11 of 16 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch! Baltimore has won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Orioles will do some damage at the plate here but Astros always tough at home and, as a result, this one flies over the rather low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the teams combining for 18 hits. The White Sox left 14 men on base. The Orioles went 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. I like taking the over after games like this and I am going with action on pitchers here as per usual. I will mention that the expected starters are Lynn and Lyles. I know Lynn has been better of late including a solid start at Cleveland in his most recent outing. However, in his 5 road outings before facing the Guardians, Lynn struggled almost always. That is why, even including solid start at Cleveland, he is 0-3 with a 6.39 ERA and a .311 batting average against in his 6 road starts this season. Lyles has allowed 4 earned runs in B2B starts plus he is getting hit at a .326 clip this month and he gave up 4 earned runs in only start versus White Sox this season. Orioles have averaged 6 runs scored per game last 8 home games. Chicago has not been scoring that well but, prior to leaving 14 on base yesterday, they left 13 on base Tuesday! The point is that the White Sox have had their opportunities and I fully expect them to cash in more of those today coming off the confidence boost of a win yesterday. Regardless of starting pitchers here, look for plenty of runs. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Red Sox have averaged 5 runs scored per game last 7 games and 4 of last 6 games have totaled double digits in runs. Last 17 home games at Fenway Park have averaged 10 runs per game. Blue Jays had an 8-run 3rd inning yesterday and Toronto has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last 11 road games. This is why I like the over here regardless of pitchers but I will mention that the expected starter for Toronto is Berrios and Red Sox expected to go with Bello. Note that Berrios has a 6.82 ERA in road games this season and opponents have hit over .300 against him in starts away from home. As for Boston's Bello, he has made 3 starts this season and allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of them despite lasting only 4 innings in each start! Red Sox bullpen not exactly stellar either and will be called upon early in this one most likely. It all sets up for a high-scoring slug-fest at hitter-friendly Fenway Park Wednesday. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - Action on pitchers. Pirates are off B2B games in which they scored just 1 run. If you look at their season results, Pittsburgh scores quite well when off B2B games in which they were held to 1 run or less. Also, after facing a tough lefty yesterday in Fried, this lefty-laden Pirates lineup should have much more success against Wright. The scheduled starter for the Braves is a righty that has not enjoyed as much success against lefties in his career. Also, though Wright has great numbers this season, he has struggled more in day games where he is getting hit a .290 clip. The scheduled starter for the Pirates is Keller and he is 0-5 with a 4.80 ERA in home starts this season. Opponents are hitting .333 against him this month and he is facing a Braves team that has won 13 of 15 and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. You can see why, regardless of starting pitching match-up here, I am expecting both teams to score well in this one and sent it over the low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:40 ET -  Action on pitchers. The Rockies last 9 home games have averaged a dozen runs per game. The posted total on this one is currently an 11 and I am confident we'll top that here as Texas has won 7 of last 11 road games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 10 on the road and, of course, none of those 10 were here at hitter-friendly Coors. So you can see why I am expecting both teams to get to at least a half-dozen runs here and that puts this game at a 7-6 final at a minimum. Now, about those pitchers - again my play is action - the expected starters are Dunning and Marquez. Note that Rangers Dunning has been great at home but opponents hitting over .300 against him on the road where he is 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA. In other words, he is likely in big trouble at Coors Field. As for Marquez, he has been solid on the road but has been hit at over a .300 clip at home where he is 2-5 with a 5.85 ERA. This one, regardless of pitchers, should get crazy on a warm evening in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. I trust neither bullpen in this venue either. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Regardless of starting pitchers, I am expecting a lot of runs here. As for Royals hitters, they do tend to hit better at home. The last dozen home games for KC have averaged 10 runs per game and yesterday's reached the double digit mark in a 6-4 win over the White Sox. As for Diamondbacks hitters, they have averaged 4.5 runs scored per game last 20 games. They should get to 5 here given the Royals sub-par overall pitching staff including question marks in the pen. The expected starter for KC here is Heasley and he is 1-7 on the year and has a 6.35 ERA in home games. The expected starter for Arizona is Davies and he is 1-3 in his 10 road starts and has a 4.68 ERA away from home. No matter the pitchers here, this one is going to see plenty of runs as Kauffman Stadium continues to deliver a lot of high-scoring Royals games and I like the way the Diamondbacks have been swinging the bats. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over here regardless of starting pitchers but will mention the expected starters are Kopech and Lynch. Note that Kopech has a high ERA and much higher BAA in road games compared to at home. Also, he started this season fantastic the first two months but has since gone 3-8 with an ERA in the 4.50 range. As for Lynch, he has a 5.22 ERA in home games and is winless in his 6 day game starts this season. The White Sox, though they have not been scoring great do have some added confidence from winning 6 of last 9 prior to yesterday's rainout. They should be able to hit Lynch as though he has pitched well against them this season he got rocked by them last season. As for Royals hitters, they do tend to hit better at home. The last 11 home games for KC have averaged 10 runs per game. I look for another one to reach double digits here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rockies left 8 men on base in yesterday's low-scoring win. The Giants went 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position in the loss. I expect both lineups to be much better in this afternoon game at Coors Field Sunday. Colorado normally hits so well at home and San Francisco had averaged 6 runs per game in first 4 games here at Coors Field this season before yesterday's disappointing effort here. Bounce back time for both lineups here regardless of the pitchers. But I will mention them here as these are the expected starters. Jakob Junis has ERA north of 5.50 in his day starts this season. Up until this season he was in the AL with the Royals and I do believe this is his first ever start at Coors Field and, generally speaking, this is NOT a friendly place for road pitchers on their first visits here. As for Rockies Kyle Freeland, he is getting hit at a .313 clip in home start this season and has a 6.00 ERA at Coors Field. This one, regardless of starters, will get crazy and fly over the total on a warm afternoon in Denver. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:10 ET - This match-up just missed going over the total yesterday as it stalled at 11 runs. Look for today's to make up for that. Action on pitchers. Regardless of pitchers, and hopefully we keep the rain away in this one, it should be a blowout winner on the over. Will mention the pitchers here briefly. Cobb has been great at home this season but has a 5.94 ERA in his 7 road starts and Coors Field the toughest venue in the league to pitch in. This is the 2nd straight year that his ERA is 3 full runs higher on the road than at home. As for Feltner, he is 2-5 with a 6.95 ERA and opponents hitting nearly .300 against him in his young MLB career. Look for him to get pounded here. The Giants allowing an average of 6 runs per game last 13 road games. The Rockies last 7 home games have averaged a dozen runs per game. This one gets to at least 12 as well. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers but we'll start there with the expected starters. The Red Sox are expected to start Michael Wacha here. I know he is off a great start but it was his first start back after a long layoff and sometimes when guys have an outing like that in first start back they suddenly struggle badly in the second one. They had a lot in the reserve in the first tart back but then have a little less in the reserve for the second start as they are still trying to get back in to their routine on the season. Baltimore expected to start Kyle Bradish here. The right-hander is winless with a 6.52 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 home outings. Yesterday's huge 15-10 Baltimore win followed an Orioles make-up game against the Cubs was squeezed into the schedule and was a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles and they did lose 3-2 at home. However, prior to that the O's won 8 of last 11 home games and each of last 4 games as a host had totaled at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will too. The Red Sox last 8 road games have averaged 12.8 runs per game and only 1 of the 8 have totaled less than 9 runs and even that one got to 8. Day after day Boston seems to be involved in rather high-scoring games when on the road in recent weeks and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers but we'll start there with the expected starters. The Red Sox are expected to start Kutter Crawford here. He has a 4.73 ERA in his MLB career. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Crawford also struggled in his only appearance against Orioles this season and that was out of the pen earlier this season. Baltimore expected to start Jordan Lyles here. The right-hander has given up 13 hits in 10 innings in his last two starts. He has struggled in 2 of his last 3 home outings. Yesterday's make-up game against the Cubs was squeezed into the schedule and was a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles and they did lose 3-2 at home. However, prior to that the O's won 8 of last 11 home games and each of last 4 games as a host had totaled at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will too. The Red Sox last 7 road games have averaged 11 runs per game and only 1 of the 7 have totaled less than 9 runs and even that one got to 8. Night after night Boston seems to be involved in rather high-scoring games when on the road in recent weeks and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The expectation here, as you can obviously tell from the side pricing in this game, is a Padres blowout. In fact, even the -1.5 on the run line pricing is too high for the risk in my mind. That said, -2.5 runs is currently available at -120. The point is that a SDG win by 3 or more runs would not be a shock to say the least. That said, I love the over in this match-up. Darvish is the expected starter for the Padres and he is not exactly setting the world on fire with his performances this month. He also just faced the Nationals last week when he was matched up with today's expected Nats pitcher, Sanchez. That said, love the over in this match-up because Sanchez is having another rough season and is 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA in his six starts this year. This game sets up for plenty of runs no matter who the pitchers are because Washington has allowed more runs than any team - even the Rockies! - in the majors this season. The Nationals have allowed 7.2 runs per game in their 17 defeats since the All Star break. The Padres last 10 games have totaled an average of 10.3 runs per game. Again, no matter the pitchers here, the bullpens should help our cause here as well and we can take advantage of a low total posted on this one. The low total makes sense because of Darvish being a big name pitcher but, again, you can see why this game has a great shot at setting plenty of runs per the above. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees and Blue Jays both have two solid lineups. This is a very low total considering that fact and I like the over regardless of the starting pitchers. My play here is action on the pitchers. But I will mention that Berrios is notorious for struggling on the road and a number of Yankees batters have given him trouble. As for the Yankees Montas, he has struggled a bit in his first two starts in a Yankees uniform and now he has the added pressure of making this start in the Bronx. He is a veteran so is not that big of a deal for Montas but still is some added pressure. Also, the Blue Jays have a number of hitters that have given him trouble. This match-up has the perfect ingredients to be a solid over winner. Toronto's last 6 road games have featured 5 that reached double digits in runs scored. Yankees have been in a pattern of low-scoring games but yesterday's dramatic 8-7 win in extra innings courtesy of a walk-off grand slam from Donaldson is going to get the New York bats going. 7 of last 9 Yankees home games have totaled at least 9 runs. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Action on pitchers but will start there about this one. Daniel Lynch is a southpaw and he has struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career. That said, he will be facing a righty-heavy lineup in facing the Twins this afternoon and I expect them to crush him. Lynch has a 6.00 ERA in his last two starts against Minnesota this season. As for the Twins Tyler Mahle, he gave up 3 homers in his first home start with Minny earlier this month. Then his next start he did pitch very well but it was against an Angels lineup that has recently been one of the worst in baseball. I do not trust that Mahle is back in top form just yet for sure as he struggles again here like he did in his first start this month. That said this seems like a very low total and I will take advantage. Note that KC had won 7 of 11 before B2B losses in this series. In those 11 games the Royals averaged 5.3 runs per game. As for the Twins, 26 of their last 33 games have totaled at least 8 runs and they are 7-2 last 9 games versus Royals and have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in last 9 games versus Kansas City. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers but will start there about this one. Greinke has made 9 road starts this season and he is 0-5 with a 7.16 ERA. Throughout his career he has shown a strong tendency to pitch well at home and then struggle on the road. That has continued this season. As for the Twins Gray, he had a 5.92 ERA in his 5 July starts. Though he has a low ERA in his first two starts this month, he has a 1.55 WHIP so he doesn't seem to be back in top form just yet for sure. That said this seems like a very low total and I will take advantage. Note that KC had won 7 of 11 before yesterday's 4-2 loss. In those 11 games the Royals averaged 5.3 runs per game. As for the Twins, 25 of their last 32 games have totaled at least 8 runs and they are 6-2 last 8 games versus Royals and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in last 8 games versus Kansas City. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Manoah just faced the Orioles and got hit hard in Baltimore and the damage could have been even worse. He might not be so fortunate in the rematch as Baltimore has been scoring very well and could cash even more opportunities this time around. As for the Orioles starter, Kremer has been absolutely crushed by Toronto hitters in his young career and I look for more of the same here in his first start versus the Blue Jays this season. Also these lineups just faced the relief pitchers they will be seeing throughout this series as well. In other words, this one sets up well to be a slugfest. Kremer has allowed 6 homers 10.1 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Blue Jays. I do like this play regardless of who the starters are because Baltimore entered the series off B2B low-scoring losses but already responded with 7 runs yesterday. Plus they had won 8 of 10 before those B2B losses and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during that stretch. Also, Toronto has averaged 5.4 runs per game in their 7 games against Orioles this season. In fact, all 7 games went over the total and totaled at least 10 runs. More of the same here and I am going to test this match-up spot that is 7-0 / 100% this season! 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Kikuchi has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts versus the Orioles this season. Bradish has allowed 8 earned runs in 9.2 innings in his two starts versus the Blue Jays this season. Also, these lineups just faced these pitchers. In other words, this one sets up well to be a slugfest even though both teams off losses in which they did not score well yesterday. Kikuchi has allowed 5 homers in his 2 starts versus the Orioles. I do like this play regardless of who the starters are because Baltimore is off B2B low-scoring losses but had won 8 of 10 before that and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during that stretch. Also, Toronto has averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their half-dozen games against Orioles this season. In fact, all 6 games went over the total and totaled at least 11 runs. More of the same here and I am going to test this match-up spot that is 6-0 / 100% this season! 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. I know I keep going back to the well here but I really feel good about this one getting over the total to wrap up this series. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 17 of their last 19 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 2 landed on 8 runs but I know we need 9 here and most all landed on at least 9 runs during this 19-game stretch. Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and have averaged 4 runs per game last 14 games. I am fully expecting at least a 6-5 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins Chris Archer is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in day games this season. As for the Angels Tucker Davidson, he is 1-3 with a 7.91 ERA this season and I feel strongly that the Twins are going to respond after letting yesterday's game get away from them plus a lot of hard hit balls in Friday's game and that one certainly should have seen more scoring than the 4-0 final. This one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9 in LA Angels

MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 12:05 ET - Padres lost 4-3 yesterday as they blew a 3-0 lead and there were 18 hits in that game. Before that loss yesterday, San Diego had been rolling and scoring big runs and I expect them to resume the hot streak today. They should pound Espino as he had a 5.82 ERA last month and 6.00 ERA this month and he has been struggling badly. He is winless on the season. The Padres Snell has good numbers on the season but he is known for not pitching as well in day games. This is an ultra early start and I expect him to struggle here particularly with Nats having totaled 10 hits in yesterday's game. He has 6.91 ERA in day games this season and had a 6.75 ERA in day games last season. The struggles continue here and this one should fly over the total as both pitchers get hammered. San Diego had scored 10 runs per game and won 3 straight before yesterday's tight loss. 10* OVER 9 in Washington 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 9:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. This is something that has worked for me many times in the past. I lose a big pick the day before and come right back with same thing the next day. The other thing that has worked well for me is "this doesn't look quite right for a reason" situation. The fact is that is usually when the sharpest people out there know something. This also works well and is the case here because Reed Detmers has been really strong for Angels but has a struggling lineup to rely on for his own run support yet this total is holding at an 8. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 16 of their last 18 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 1 landed on 8 runs (the current total of this game). So the fact is if you had played over 8 in each of Minnesota's last 18 road games you had a 15-2-1 record! Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and, prior to yesterday's game, had averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. I am fully expecting at least a 5-4 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins Dylan Bundy has a 6.33 ERA and a .301 BAA in road games this season. I know the Angels Detmers has great numbers this season and is off a start in which he did not allow many hits but there is something funny about this line and the fact it is holding at an 8 again. I definitely love the fact that there were a lot of hard hit balls yesterday and it certainly should have seen more scoring than the 4-0 final. This one should fly over the total. Note LA has averaged scoring 6 runs per game the last 8 times they were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. 10* OVER 8 in LA Angels

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET (Gm 1 of DH) - Yesterday's game featured a ton of scoring chances but the Marlins lost 4-3 because despite the two teams totaling 20 hits between them, Miami went 1 for 14 with runners in scoring position and left 13 men on base for the game! That is why I like the over here regardless of pitching match-up. I know what this Braves lineup is capable of and I also feel certain the Marlins will bounce back after wasting so many chances yesterday. Now, about those pitchers, Jesus Luzardo is off a great start and has been solid in his two starts since coming back. However, his only home start this season versus a playoff-level team like the Braves saw him get roughed up by the Cardinals. Also, he did struggle against Atlanta in a start last season. As for Braves starter Kyle Muller, he'll be looking to redeem himself for a bad start in his only MLB appearance this season but keep in mind he also struggled in finishing out last season at the big league level and it could be playing on his confidence level to say the least. With the way the Marlins piled up hits yesterday that could spell trouble today. 10* OVER 7 in Miami (Gm 1 of DH)

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 9:38 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 16 of their last 17 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 1 landed on 8 runs (the current total of this game). So the fact is if you had played over 8 in each of Minnesota's last 17 road games you had a 15-1-1 record! Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and have averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. I am fully expecting at least a 5-4 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins start recently acquired Mahle and he allowed 3 homers in his first start with Minnesota. Also, he has a 4.76 ERA in night games this season and has been hit 49 points higher under the lights compared to in day action. I know the Angels Sandoval has great numbers this season and is off a start in which he did not allow many hits but he did walk 4 plus hit a pair of batters. Keep in mind, all this after an 0-5 July in which he compiled a 6.20 ERA. This one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8 in LA Angels

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians @ 1:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Tigers expected to start rookie Garrett Hill and he is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in day games this season. Also, Hill made his MLB debut against Guardians on July 4th and it was a strong outing for him. Now will be the first time ever at the MLB level that he is making a 2nd appearance against a team he already faced. Historically these 2nd outings trend toward being much tougher than the first! Hill is off a respectable start as well but in between these 1st and 6th starts he had a 7.20 ERA over 4 starts and none of them were quality outings. As for the Guardians Zach Plesac, he is 1-7 with a 5.31 ERA in road starts this season. Also, Plesac was 0-4 with a 5.84 ERA last month and then he began August by losing again and getting hammered for 4 earned runs in about 4 innings of work. Also, the Tigers are facing him for the 3rd time this season and hit him harder in the 2nd one than the 1st one and I look for even more damage to be done in the 3rd one. Regardless of starting pitchers, again my pick is action, the Tigers last 12 home games had averaged 10 runs apiece prior to the 3-2 loss to Cleveland yesterday. Love the fact that yesterday's game was 3-2 after 4 innings but then stayed that way the rest of the game. Today's game makes up for that and the Guardians are 9-6 last 15 road games and the 9 wins saw Cleveland score an average of 7 runs per game. The 6 losses saw the Guardians allow an average of 5 per game. This total is only an 8.5 and is offering great value. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox tend to hit much better at home. I look at their lineup and, yes, is not what it was in their heyday years of the past but it still has solid lumber in it for sure. That said, I like the over here with action on pitchers. The Braves continue to be one of the best teams in baseball and hit well. Boston tends to hit better when at home and should get the job done again here as well. Yesterday's game ended up a wild 9-7 extra-innings win for the Braves. The expected starting pitchers are Wright and Pivetta so I will touch on them here but they are not the key to the play. Wright allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch. Pivetta has had a couple games recently where he has allowed less earned runs but still giving up quite a few hits. So looking at everything tells the full story and Pivetta has allowed 28 earned runs in 29 innings in last 6 starts. Also he has given up 46 hits in those 29 innings! The Red Sox have seen 5 straight games totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged 13 runs! The Braves have seen 16 of last 22 games total at least 9 runs. I realize this total is as high as a 9.5 but I still see double digits being attained in this game. The Braves favored for a reason and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 9 wins since the All Star break. Plus the Red Sox known for being dangerous hitting team at home. This should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 9:40 ET - This is a bit of a contrarian play because neither one of these teams known for being solid hitting clubs. However, I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers and would also not be surprised to see some 8.5 become available on this total which, of course, will give us even more value with this one. Either way, regardless of number and starting pitchers, I like the over here. Note that Pirates had averaged 5 runs per game and gone 4-2 last 6 games before being shutout yesterday. Pittsburgh scored an average of 6.5 runs in those 4 victories. As for the Diamondbacks, 5 of their last 6 games had totaled at least 9 runs before the 3-0 shutout win yesterday. Arizona has been solid at home for quite a stretch now and has won 8 of 10 home games since the All Star break plus scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 20 games as a host overall. They can score plenty here and the Pirates are going go surprise some people with runs here. Will just touch on the starting pitchers here but Tommy Henry 8-10 with a 4.57 ERA in his minor league career and allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his first MLB start. Zach Thompson 1-6 with a 6.47 ERA in his night game starts this season and he has been absolutely destroyed overall in his last 3 starts. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - Like so many other pitchers, Miles Mikolas does not have a good career history at Coors Field. That said, I like the over a ton here. Even if Mikolas does not start here and were Ryan Feltner not to start for the Rockies, I still like the over in this match-up. Take action on the pitchers. The fact is that Colorado has scored an average of 5.6 runs per game at home this season and the Cardinals come into this game red hot. St Louis has won 9 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during this hot stretch. The Cards had a 1-0 win in this stretch but have averaged 6.2 runs in the other 9 games. They are hot and Feltner is 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA in the 11 games (10 starts) in his MLB career. Mikolas has an ERA about a full run higher on the road than at home this season and each of the past two seasons before this his road ERA was at least 2 runs higher on the road than at home and the year before these it was a variance over 1.5 runs. The point is that he has always been better at home than on the road for many seasons now and pitching at Coors Field is tougher than any other venue in the bigs and this is particularly true on a warm late summer evening game. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are off an 8-1 loss but had won 5 straight games before that and scored an average of 5.6 runs per victory. The Blue Jays are 10-5 last 15 games since the All Star break and have averaged 6.1 runs per game. Regardless of starting pitchers here (action on this play) I like the fact that both teams have been hot and they each have extra confident batting lineups as a result. About the starting pitchers, I will mention that Jordan Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against Toronto earlier this season. Also, Yusei Kikuchi allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings against Orioles this season and the damage could have been even worse in that one and that was in Toronto and he'll face an even bigger challenge at Baltimore. Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA in 9 road starts this season. Lyles also gave up 4 homers in 4 innings when he faced the Blue Jays last year too. So this is a problematic match-up for each starting pitcher but, regardless of starters, I look for both teams and therefore both lineups to stay hot in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 in Baltimore

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:07 ET - These teams each reached double digits in hits in yesterday's 7-3 Giants win. Regardless of the pitchers today, I like the over. Action on pitchers here as the A's, prior to yesterday's 7-3 loss, had won 9 of 13 games and scored an average of 4.6 runs per game during this stretch. The Giants had lost 12 of 15 games before yesterday's win as SF had allowed 5.3 runs per game during that stretch. With the San Francisco bats waking up yesterday and the Oakland sticks enjoying more success in recent weeks, these teams will hit well again today. Now I will touch on the expected pitchers here. Logan Webb has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.1 innings in his last two starts and has a higher ERA in day games in comparison with night games. Adrian Martinez has struggled at the MLB level and that comes as no surprise as he struggled at the AAA level of the minors too. Martinez is 5-8 with a 5.44 ERA at the highest level of the minors and has a 6.52 ERA in his 4 MLB starts. More of the same likely here and the hitters are the story, regardless of who the starting pitchers here here, Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - The ability to get an 8 here is an excellent value. Regardless of pitchers, I like the fact the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game since the All Star Break and the Twins have seen 9 of their 13 games since the All Star Break total double digits in runs! So, action on pitchers, but if you take a closer look at them here, you will like what you see. Chris Archer is off a good start for the Twins but his prior two were ugly and this is a guy whom is 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his day game starts this season. As for Kevin Gausman, he is off a fantastic outing but he got hit at a .356 clip in the month of July plus he allowed 10 earned runs in less than 16 innings over his 3 starts prior to Tuesday's gem at Tampa Bay. Should be no such gem here against a Twins team that hammered him for 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 4 innings for Gausman in early June. Take advantage of the low total here as these are two solid lineups that absolutely can explode for big runs here and I love the way both teams have been trending in terms of runs scored as well. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Boston has won 4 of 6 and averaged scoring about 5 runs per game in the 4 victories. Kansas City has seen 6 of their last 8 games total at least 10 runs and those 6 have actually averaged a dozen runs per game. That is why, regardless of starting pitchers here, I do like the over in this match-up. The Red Sox are expected to start Nathan Eovaldi and he began August with a good start but this was after going 3 starts without a win in July and he had an 11.08 ERA for the month. Daniel Lynch the expected starter for KC here and the Royals lefty has gone 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. He had a strong April but it has been all downhill for Lynch ever since. Regardless of the starters, the bats stay hot here in this game and it should fly over the total with favorable weather for an over also expected at Kaufmann Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -125 or 7 +105 in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels @ 10:10 ET - We get a very low total here because of the fact neither one of these lineups is particularly impressive right now plus the fact that Sandoval and Ray each certainly carry solid reputations as starting pitchers in the betting markets. As we dive into this one you will see why I think we have fantastic line value here with this low total and I am going with a big play here as a result. Sandoval actually has allowed 38 hits in less than 30 innings over his last 6 starts! He went 0-5 with a 6.20 ERA in the month of July! As for Ray, he has been destroyed in each of his last two starts and one of those was at home too. Granted those outings were against Houston but I think the Angels can do plenty of damage against him here as well. Los Angeles is off an 8-7 yesterday and that was the 2nd time in 5 games they reach 7 runs scored. Also, the Angels are 3-1 in last 4 road games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. The LA bullpen has had issues and that is part of the reason LA has allowed at least 7 runs in 6 of 13 games since the break! As for Seattle, they have averaged 7.5 runs in winning each of their past 2 games so they have momentum after the solid performance in the Bronx against the Yankees. 5 of their last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and I like the over in this Mariners games no matter who the pitchers are. 10* OVER 6.5 -125 or over 7 +105 in Seattle

MLB Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 8.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks Bumgarner has been rock solid at home this season. In fact, taking out the one tough home start he had (versus Dodgers), Bumgarner has allowed a total of only 16 earned runs in 10 starts at home this season. As for the Rockies Marquez, his numbers overall are inflated because of pitching at Coors Field for his home starts. On the road he is quite solid and also he has been rock solid against the Diamondbacks this season too. Just 9 hits allowed in 13 innings at Arizona for Marquez. Regardless of the pitchers here I do like the under as Colorado, yesterday at San Diego notwithstanding, normally does not score well on the road. The Rockies had scored an average of just 2.2 runs per game last 5 games prior to the win yesterday over the Padres. As for Arizona, they have lost 5 of 6 and scored an average of just 2.4 runs (not including extra innings run) in those 5 losses. 10* UNDER 8.5 in Arizona

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals are likely to pound Pivetta here. The Red Sox right-hander has just had a disastrous July in which he went winless in 5 starts and had a 9.38 ERA and he got hammered at a .371 clip. Boston also should have the sticks going tonight as Bubic starts for KC and is 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA in home games and 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA in night games this season. Bubic has been hit at around a .300 clip at home and in night games. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that Boston has gone 3-7 last 10 road games and allowed 6.2 runs per game during stretch. The Royals have allowed 6.5 runs per game last 6 games. So not exactly stellar bullpen work going on for either one of these clubs and the Royals now back home where they have gone 7-5 last dozen games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 7 victories. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:45 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a contrarian play because Julio Urias is on the mound for the Dodgers and he has solid numbers this season and has been strong against the Giants. What I like about San Francisco here is they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of last 6 games. Similar to yesterday's 9-5 LA win I feel we will see plenty of runs scored here. The Giants last 6 games with the Dodgers have totaled an average of 10.3 runs per game. San Francisco has scored an average of 5 runs per game last dozen home games. The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats and averaging 6.5 runs per game last 19 games! That is why I don't care who the pitchers are here but I will mention that the Giants are expected to go with Alex Cobb. He has some good numbers recently but does struggle when facing more potent lineups. The Dodgers are a case in point as Cobb just allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings in his most recent start against them. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - Decent winds in Minneapolis expected for this one and I feel that will help the ball carry a little better than usual too. Alexander the expected starter for the Tigers and he has not fared well as a starter, has struggled more on the road, and struggled in day games. It all adds up to a huge game at the plate for the Twins. As for Minnesota starter Ryan, the problem is that he just got destroyed and allowed 5 homers in his most recent start. Yes he was previously throwing quite well but I know that all the long balls just have to be in the back of his mind entering this one and the Tigers have been hitting decently of late. In fact, that is why I like the over here regardless of who the starting pitchers end up being. Detroit averaging 4.3 runs per game last 9 games but allowing 5 runs per game in going 3-8 last 11 games prior to yesterday's win. The Twins had seen 8 straight games total at least 9 runs prior to the last 3 games not reaching that number. Still 2 of those 3 got to 8 and I like this one to get to double digits as Minny has scored an average of 6.5 runs per game last 4 times they were off a loss in which they were held to 3 or less runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Spencer Howard off a decent start for the Rangers but he entered that start with a 7.11 ERA and getting hit at a .306 clip on the season. Jordan Lyles got hammered in his most recent road start and that was the 5th time he has been hammered in his last 7 away from home. Lyles allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of last 6 away from home. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I do like the over as the Orioles are off a 7-2 win yesterday and, other than a shutout loss to the Yankees, have averaged 4.6 runs per game in their other 10 games since returning from the break. Also, keep in mind, Baltimore had average 5.2 runs per game in going 11-2 in their final 13 games before the break as well. The Rangers had won 3 of 4 overall and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game before yesterday's ugly loss. Also, yesterday's 7-2 home loss was the 9th time last 12 home games that a Texas home game totaled at least 9 runs. The Rangers averaged 5.4 runs in their last 10 home games prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday. Like the value with this low total no matter who is on the mound as I expect the high-scoring trends noted above to continue. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected starers are Michael Kopech versus Brad Keller. More on them in a minute. What I like about this play is the fact the Royals last 13 road games have featured 9 that have totaled at least 9 runs. In fact, those 9 games averaged totaling 12.3 runs per game so it is not like they are just squeaking over the total. As for the White Sox, they are off B2B low-scoring wins over an A's team that is just not known for much scoring. However, prior to Chicago's last 2 games totaling just 5 runs apiece, the White Sox saw 9 of 11 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those 9 games averaged 10.4 runs per game. You can see why multiple signs point to an over here regardless of the pitchers. The expected pitching match-up is Kopech versus Keller as noted above. Kopech has good overall numbers on the season but has been walking too many of late and this led to a 1.82 WHIP in July. Overall his last 7 starts have seen him go 2-4 and he has a 6.19 ERA last 3 home starts. As for Keller, he has also has been struggling with walks allowed in last 2 starts and, overall, has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts. Keller is 3-7 with a 4.83 ERA in night starts this season. Both teams should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one and, like so often of late with these clubs, look for a total of at least 9 runs in this one but really double digits quite likely. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 1:40 ET - Being a contrarian is something that has served me well through the years and I expect that to be the case again here. Action on pitchers. The expected pitchers are Walker and Lopez. No matter who pitches I like the over after the Marlins got shutout yesterday. The Marlins Lopez had trade rumors flying around him and certainly this could have taken a toll on him. Though off a quality start it was his first since early this month and he did get hammered by the Mets in mid-June. I know he had success against him since then in a start but New York enters this game having won 5 straight games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. The Marlins have averaged 5 runs per game this season when off a shutout loss and they respond big here. Taijuan Walker has been solid for the Mets but he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his only start at Miami this season. More of the same here and, regardless of pitchers, Mets stay hot at the plate as they go for 6 straight wins and the Marlins respond off the home shutout. 10* OVER 7 in Miami

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 12:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters Hill and Berrios. Note that Hills is unproven at the MLB level and the inexperienced hurler has a 7.20 ERA last 3 starts. I know Berrios is a rock solid pitcher overall but he has allowed 28 hits in 23 innings in home starts in July. Also, Berrios has a 6.02 ERA in day games this season. The Tigers actually had 10 hits in yesterday's loss and have been swinging the bats better overall of late. The Blue Jays are a very dangerous lineup and this is particularly true at home. After some games falling just short of the over so far in this series look for this one to fly over the total. Toronto has a breakout game and the Tigers scratch more runs than many are expecting here. Detroit has scored an average of 5 runs per game last 6 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:15 ET - The White Sox have seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 9 runs and that includes 6 of 7 since the All-Star break. The A's won yesterday's match-up 7-3 and have now won 7 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game. Oakland has putrid numbers on offense for the season but they actually have been hitting better since even before the All-Star break when they won 3 of last 5 games before the break plus averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game the final 6 games before the break. That is why, regardless of the pitchers here, I like the over in this match-up. However, I will mention the expected starters are Cueto versus Blackburn. Note that Cueto has been solid overall but does have an ERA two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, Blackburn is enduring a very rough stretch with 6 of his last 7 starts being tough. Blackburn gave up 8 hits in 5.1 innings back in a mid-June start but was fortunate to escape major damage in that one. Since then though his poor form is reflecting in an ERA climb from a 2.26 on the season to a 4.35 ERA now with getting clobbered in 5 of last 6 starts. More of the same expected here but, again, action on pitchers here for me. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Coming right back with the same play I successfully used yesterday. As noted yesterday, the Dodgers bullpen has not been as strong as this season and the Rockies are known for hitting very well at home. After getting shutout at home yesterday, Colorado bounces back at the plate today while the Dodgers again pile up big runs like they did in yesterday's 13-0 outburst. At hitter friendly Coors Field, regardless of the pitching match-up here, the ball is going to be carrying well and both these teams can mash the ball. Colorado averaging about 6 runs per game at home this season. Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. Now, at Coors Field, the LA lineup delivers an especially huge road effort here. They got shutout by Chad Kuhl here at the end of last month. Now it is time for payback. Kuhl has been struggling badly ever since that start. Likewise, Julio Urias is off a surprisingly good start the last time he pitched at Coors Field but this followed a lot of struggles in recent starts at Coors Field including one this season and multiple ones last season. No matter the pitchers, the Dodgers bats stay hot and the Rockies bats bounce right back on their home field. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers because the key here is two hot lineups. Bumgarner has struggled all season on the road and now faces a red hot Braves lineup in this one. Wright has been pitching very well for the Braves but he has been hit harder in a number of starts the past 6 weeks as has been fortunate he got out of a number of jams. Wright had one start in his last 7 where he pitched more than 4 innings and allowed 3 or less hits. However, in his other 6 starts since mid-June, Wright has given up 46 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings. I feel we have good value here with this low total. The Braves have seen EACH of their last ELEVEN games total at least 9 runs so here we are testing a streak that is 11 in a row! The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in going 5-1 in their 6 games since the All-Star break. The Braves have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 10 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Someone knows something. You have, I am sure, heard that expression before and it definitely applies here. This total opened up at an 11.5 and is up to a solid 12 across the board. This is even though Urena has a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies and Anderson is 10-1 with a 2.79 ERA. In other words, don't let the numbers fool you. This game is going over the total. So, if you look deeper, Urena is fortunate to have that low ERA and starting to show signs he is about to get crushed and I am sure the potent Dodgers lineup can be the one to inflict the damage here. As for Anderson his only loss this season was at Coors Field and he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in that one. The damage could have been worse for Anderson in that one as he got two double plays and one was a line drive double play. He got hit hard and I expect more of the same here and the Dodgers bullpen has not been as strong as this season and the Rockies are known for hitting very well at home. At hitter friendly Coors Field, regardless of the pitching match-up here, the ball is going to be carrying well and both these teams can mash the ball. Colorado averaging about 6 runs per game at home this season. Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. Now, at Coors Field, the LA lineup delivers an especially huge road effort here. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado 

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:07 ET - The Tigers Alexander is getting hit at over a .300 clip on the season in road games and has hardly started this season as he has mostly worked out of the pen. The Blue Jays Kikuchi has been hit at a .300 clip since late May as he just has not been right and I expect his struggles to continue here. The Tigers have seen 3 of last 4 road games total at least 9 runs. Detroit enters this game having scored an average of 6.7 runs last 3 games and, prior to a 4-3 win yesterday, the Tigers had seen 4 straight games total at least 10 runs. The Blue Jays had won 7 straight games before yesterday's 6-1 loss. Toronto has scored at least 6 runs in 6 of last 8 victories. More of the same on tap here and both teams score well regardless of the pitching match-up. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto

MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rockies are 6-4 last 10 games and had averaged 6.3 runs per game prior to yesterday's low-scoring 2-0 win at Milwaukee. Colorado is known for hitting better at home and should dominate at the plate in this one. The issue is that Rockies pitchers are known for struggling at home too. Regardless of the pitchers I like the over here but will mention that the expected match-up is Marquez versus Kopech. Note that Marquez has a 6.63 ERA at home this season and opponents have hit .311 against him there. Kopech has a WHIP of nearly 2 baserunners per inning this month because he has been hit quite hard in his 3 starts plus he is walking too many guys. Now he makes his first ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this place has a reputation of being very tough on first-time starters here. No matter the pitchers, I also like the fact that White Sox have averaged 5.8 runs per game in going 6-4 last 10 games. Should see plenty of runs in this one given the hot bats and confidence in each lineup. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Angels every once in awhile have breakout games at the plate and this looks like one of those spots. Action on pitchers because if Zerpa does not start for Royals it would be no one special in this spot. Zerpa is very inexperience and he was fortunate in his most recent start as he gave up a lot of hard hit balls that ended up being outs. That is helping to give us value here. As for the Angels Suarez is the expected starter and he has been struggling. Overall, the pitching does not matter that much for LA either because they continue to give up a lot of runs in almost every game. Angels have allowed 7 runs per game on average in the 8 losses in their current 2-8 run. If we can keep the rain away from KC long enough to get this one in, we should cash an easy ticket as the low total is a bargain considering no top starting pitchers are available to start this one for either team. So no matter who is on the mound, the hitters should enjoy success here. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City 

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Astros have won 5 straight games coming out of the All Star break and scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. Oakland is known for having a decrepit offense but they erupted late in yesterday 11-8 loss to Texas and, overall, the Athletics have been scoring better recently. That is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers and I will note that the A's have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 4 games. Now, about those expected pitchers. Jake Odorizzi will be facing the A's for a 3rd straight start. That is never easy for a starter and he did get hit harder in the 2nd than the 1st. Also, in his start prior to these two he was rocked by Kansas City. That said, this is the right time to expect Odorizzi to again get hit hard. As for Adam Oller, he has been respectable out of the bullpen this season but struggled badly as a starter for Oakland this season. The A's right-hander is 0-3 with a 10.89 in his 5 starts this season. Two confident teams squaring off tonight - based on results since the break - and the lineups will key a solid over here in my strong opinion. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I lost a very big play yesterday involving this match-up and am not happy about it at all but we'll get some payback today. Crazy things happening all in one game are part of the business and why there is never a sure thing in sports betting but, over the long haul, the right handicaps can produce more winners than not. Yesterday's game ended with a 1-2-3 top of the 9th inning for the Rangers. However in the first 8 innings of the game - so a total of 16 half-innings - the teams only had ONE 1-2-3 inning each the entire time. That means in 14 of the 16 half-innings the teams had at least one runner on base. It was a disgusting thing to watch unfold when you have an over and so many opportunities get wasted but you must press forward and shake off nonsense like yesterday's final result. So I mentioned yesterday this series has been trending over and we have another low total to work with here and we saw again yesterday that both bullpens were shaky and got into trouble frequently. That said, I again like the over here no matter who pitches plus I like the fact this one is a day game and that is a little better for scoring runs in terms of games played by the bay. That said, will touch on the pitchers here. Expected starting pitching match-up is Perez vs Blackburn. Note that Perez has a 5.09 ERA in his 3 starts this month and opponents hit .315 against him in his 5 starts last month. Also his ERA is nearly 3 runs higher in day games compared to night games. As for Blackburn, he has a 6.06 ERA in his 3 starts this month and he had a 5.13 ERA while being hit at a .306 clip last month. He also has an ERA nearly 5 runs higher at home compared to on the road! This is a play regardless of starting pitchers but you can see why I like it so much. Revenge payback here will be SWEET! 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 9:07 ET - Action on the pitchers. Love the way the series has been playing out between these teams in terms of overs. 6 of the last 7 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs and, in fact, have averaged 13.4 runs per game! These teams are very familiar with each others bullpen arms but we get a low total to work with here because Oakland is known as a low-scoring team. Keep in mind, the Rangers have scored 5.3 runs per game last 14 games. The A's have scored 5 runs per game last 9 games. In terms of the starters here, which again are NOT the key factors here, it is expected to be Hearn versus Kaprielian but it would not shock me if Texas went with Bush as an opener. In any event, Hearn will be sent back to AAA Round Rock after this start because Dunning is due back from the DL for the Rangers. That is not exactly motivating for Hearn as his fate is sealed. This is a spot start for a guy who has a 5.78 ERA on the season including an awful 8.61 ERA in his 5 road starts! The A's have seen him this year and the Rangers also just saw Kaprielian. The Oakland right-hander is winless with a 5.40 ERA in his 6 home starts this season and also has a 5.31 ERA in night games this season. Look for the runs to keep flowing here no matter who is on the mound for either team and this one should get a solid win for us. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Saturday MLB 10* Top Play UNDER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 1:10 ET (Gm 1 of DH) - Action on pitchers. I like the fact this is an early game coming off last night's game having been the first action for each of these clubs since the All Star break. Look for the bats to be a little sleepy in this early start and I expect an under no matter who the pitchers are. However, I will say that the expected pitchers are McKenzie for the Guardians and Cueto for the White Sox. McKenzie has not allowed a run this entire month while allowing just 9 hits but striking out 23 in 21 innings! Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his 3 July starts this month. Also, Cueto has a 1.69 ERA in his 5 games (4 starts) in daytime action this season. The bats struggle here after yesterday's game was a rare, surprisingly easy over. This one plays out much differently early Saturday. 10* UNDER 9 in Chicago White Sox (Game 1)

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Plenty of runs here on a hot evening at a hitter-friendly ballpark regardless of the starting pitchers. I will mention them here right away though and say that Adam Wainwright has been known for a very long time for struggling on the road and excelling at home and this season has been no different. Wainwright's road ERA is a full 2 runs higher and his BAA is 55 points higher on the road compared to at home. As for the Reds Graham Ashcraft, he has solid numbers at home on the season but his current form has been rough and that included getting hit hard in each of his two most recent home starts too. Overall, Ashcraft has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 starts and his ERA has climbed a full 3 runs as a result. Now, about those lineups...the Cardinals are 5-2 last 7 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Reds are 6-3 last 9 games and have scored 5 runs per game on average during this stretch. 6-5 type game sounds about right here but I am expecting much more honestly and this one should fly over the total and get past the dozen mark in runs. 10* OVER 10 in Cincinnati

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:37 ET (Game 1 of 2) - Action on pitchers. Oakland is not known for scoring many runs yet they have averaged 5.5 runs per game last 6 games. They also have allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game last 7 games. Tigers, prior to shutout in final game before break, did score an average of 4 runs per game last dozen games. Detroit allowed an average of 5.9 runs per game final 10 games before the All-Star break. Given all these numbers you can understand why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers but I will touch on the expected starters here. The Tigers Skubal has allowed 29 earned runs in 35 innings spanning his last 7 starts. That is a 7.46 ERA his last 7 starts. The A's Zach Logue has allowed 13 earned runs in 12 innings over his last 3 starts and has given up 5 homers in those 3 outings. Given all of the above and nice afternoon weather by the bay, this one should more scoring than most are expecting! 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:40 ET - Action on the pitchers. This one is about two hot teams and two hot lineups that have plenty of confidence right now at the plate. Yes, yesterday's game took extra innings to get over the total but I do not expect to need that here and this total just too low (at 7.5) in my opinion. First off, will mention that I know Jordan Lyles has been better of late but he still has a 5.52 ERA this season in road starts and this is nothing new as he is 8-19 in road starts the last 3 seasons combined. His ERA away from home during this 3-year stretch is a 5.82 ERA. Corey Kluber certainly has been rock solid lately for the Rays but a closer look shows he got some key breaks in the start versus Boston in his last home start. Before back to back solid starts versus Red Sox, Kluber had a 5.65 ERA in his 3 prior starts. Also, his last two home starts before the one against Boston, he allowed 11 hits in 10 and 1/3 innings. The Orioles have won 11 of 12 games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. The total on this game is just 7.5 runs and the Rays 14 of last 19 games have totaled at least 8 runs. Tampa Bay had won 10 of 14 games before yesterday's loss and TB scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in those 10 victories. Again, two hot teams with confident lineups at the plate and the runs will come here and we take advantage of the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay

MLB Sunday 9* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Well aware of the fact that Jose Berrios is off a 13-strikeout performance versus Phillies in last start. However, he has a 6.62 ERA in his 7 day game starts this season and this is a particularly early one. As for the Royals Kris Bubic, he is having a tough season and it includes 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA in his 7 day game starts. Kansas City's last 8 road games have featured 6 that totaled at least 9 runs. The Royals have scored an average of 5 runs in these 8 games. The Blue Jays, since June 1st, have played 26 home games and 21 of them have totaled at least 9 runs. You can see why this match-up is about much more than just the starting pitching - again, my play here is action - but you can also see, per the above, why we might see some struggles from each of the expected starters in this match-up too. Look for double digits in runs scored and, unlike yesterday's game, this one will not need extra innings to get there! 9* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Even against a struggling A's offense, Howard allowed 6 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. He only allowed 1 earned run but only struck out 1 and remains very hittable and has an 8.04 ERA on the season. Gilbert has a fantastic ERA on the season for the Mariners but he allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in his last 4 starts when he gave up a pair against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. No matter the starting pitchers here (my play is action), note that Seattle has won 12 straight games and score an average of 5.7 runs per game last 10 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in the first 8 games of this 10-game homestand and yesterday was the first time they have been held below 5 runs in any of these games! 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love this situation regardless of the pitchers but will mention that the expected starters include a righty for Rockies and that does hold some significance here though it is not the only factor. Pittsburgh is a lineup dominated by left-handed bats. Not only is Jose Urena a right-handed pitcher, he has been absolutely crushed in recent years against left-handed hitting. Urena also was hit hard by the Pirates earlier this season. As for Pirates right-hander Keller, he has been getting hit hard this month and really has struggled for much of his MLB career. Keller is 10-23 with a 5.65 ERA in his MLB career. So even if these pitchers do not go it still could end up a lefty-righty match-up but either way I like the over here. Note that Pirates, before B2B losses to close series with Marlins, had won 9 of 14 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and had allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! As for Rockies, 10 of last 11 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 13-2 Rockies win and this after an 8-5 Colorado win which followed a 10-6 Rockies win. The teams - faced Padres - combined for 29 hits in that one. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and that has continued of late in a huge way as you can see above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Love this situation regardless of the pitchers but will mention that the expected starters are a righty for Rockies and a lefty for Pirates and that does hold some significance here though it is not the only factor. Pittsburgh is a lineup dominated by left-handed bats. Not only is Marquez a right-handed pitcher, he has struggled at home this season and also has struggled in recent years against left-handed hitting. As for Pirates Quintana, he has been getting hit hard this month plus in recent seasons the lefty has been pounded by right-handed bats and the Rockies are a lineup that is dominated by right-handed sticks. So even if these pitchers do not go it still could end up a lefty-righty match-up but either way I like the over here. Note that Pirates, before B2B losses to close series with Marlins, had won 9 of 14 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and had allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! As for Rockies, 9 of last 10 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 8-5 Colorado win and this followed a 10-6 Rockies win and the teams combined for 29 hits. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and that has continued of late. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams just met in a series so there is familiarity with the starting pitchers and the bullpen guys. That is a big part of the reason I don't care who the starting pitchers are here either but I will mention them. This play is action. Corbin is having a rough season and he sprinkled in a couple of good starts recently but overall it has been a disaster and he struggled against the Braves recently too. As for Anderson, he had too many walks but held the Nationals in check in most recent start. Now he gives them a quick 2nd look however and, in the 3 starts prior to facing Washington, he allowed 21 hits in 11 innings! The big key here is hot hitting and confidence of a Braves team that is on a 31-10 run. Atlanta has averaged 6 runs per game in the 10 victories in their current 10-4 run last 14 games. Washington has lost 13 of 14 games and allowed 6 runs per game in those 13 defeats. Their bullpen has had major struggles but their lineup does tend to produce a little better when at home and they have averaged 4 runs per game last 11 home games. This one gets to double digits. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Monday's game saw both starting pitchers work at least 6 innings yet the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs in the final 3 innings of the game. Again this is why you have seen some of the biggest sportsbooks in the world do "action only" as mandatory on their sports bets. The starting pitchers play a role for sure but baseball also is so much more including fielding, baserunning, hitting, bullpens, etc. I digress but, as always, will touch on the starting pitchers here but just remember this play is a go regardless of pitchers. The Rockies 8 of last 9 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 10-6 Rockies win and the teams combined for 29 hits. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and it will be hot weather in Denver for this afternoon game. Perfect conditions for the ball to carry very well. The Padres, when in hitter-friendly parks away from home, are known to get involving in crazy high-scoring games. Their last 10 games played at Coors Field or Wrigley Field have seen an average of 13 runs per game! I know Snell has been rounding into form for the Padres but Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch. Snell has been rocked in his 3 starts here in 2021 and 2022. Also, his name on the mound for tonight is what is helping to keep this total low. As for Rockies Freeland, he has had a rough start to July plus the Padres will be facing him for the 3rd time since mid-June. Familiarity like this often leads to success for the hitters particularly when a guy is currently struggling. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:10 ET - Action on this play. Yesterday's game was 1-0 heading to bottom of 8th and then ended up being a game that totaled 9 runs thanks to extra innings. However, that also goes to show that even if two starting pitchers have great starts it does not always equate to an under. I don't care who the pitchers are here but will touch on them below. I feel both bullpens will again have some issues here and note also that the Pirates had won 9 of 14 games before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! The Marlins have won 9 of 14 games also and so you have a pair of unpopular teams but that are confident teams right now and have extra confidence at the plate as a result. Now, about those expected starters. Garrett off couple good starts on the road but he had been getting hit hard throughout June, his first month of the season, and this was particularly true at home. As for Thompson, he has struggled in away games (5.27 ERA) and day games (.283 BAA). Taking advantage of the low total here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Miami