40* TEXANS/TITANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Texans +3.5)

Last week we won easily with Houston -6 vs Jacksonville, as the Texans cruised to a 30-14 win. That was a big play on spot for Houston in that first game after firing head coach Bill O'Brien. What I loved is there was a clear breaking point between the players. I believe it has the Texans players out to prove that O'Brien is in fact what was holding them back. 

Not only is Houston playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, but this might be the most talented 1-4 team in recent years. The Texans were simply dealt as brutal a schedule as you could get to start the year. Their first 3 games were @ KC, home vs Ravens and @ Steelers. They did lose to a bad Vikings team to fall to 0-4, but I think some of that was the team no longer wanting to play for O'Brien. 

The Titans are a good team. However, I think it might be time to sell high. Tennessee was in the AFC title game last year, are sitting 4-0 and off a convincing 42-16 win over an undefeated Bills team that everyone was in love with. 

Thing is they could be sitting here at 1-3, as their first 3 wins were all by 3 or fewer against the Broncos, Jags and Vikings (all 3 of those teams enter Week 6 with 1 win).

Another huge factor here is rest. Tennessee is going to be playing on just 4 days of rest. That's tough in normal circumstances. I think it's going to be even harder on a team that is short-handed because of all the guys dealing with Covid. Give me the Texans +3.5! 

40* FALCONS/VIKINGS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Falcons +4) 

Last week we played on the Texans in their first game after they fired head coach Bill O'Brien and Houston delivered in a big way with a 30-14 win, easily covering as a -6 point favorite. This is a situational spot I've had a lot of success playing over the years. I just can't help myself here with Atlanta +4 at Minnesota in their first game after firing Dan Quinn. 

One of the reasons I believe this spot is profitable is whenever a bad team fires a coach it's like whatever happened before is tossed out the window and it's like starting a season all over. You can bank on that team playing their hearts out. 

I like a hungry Falcons team here. Atlanta is better than 0-5. They blew two massive leads against the Cowboys and Bears. There other 3 losses are against two SB contenders in the Seahawks and Packers and a very underrated Panthers team. 

As for the Vikings, they have looked a little bit better of late, but I'm still not sold on this team. They won't have Dalvin Cook this week and I still think that defense is a major liability. 

The other big thing here is I think this is a tough spot for Minnesota. The Vikings avoid going 0-4 with that big win over the Texans and looked like they were going to make it 2 straight with a big upset of Seattle. Mike Zimmer decides to go for it on 4th and 1 leading by 5, instead of kicking the field goal to go up 8. Seahawks make the stop and Russell Wilson goes 94 yards, converting twice on 4th down to win the game 27-26. Give me the Falcons +4! 

40* GEORGIA/ALABAMA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Georgia +4.5) 

I'm going to take the points to be safe, but I really like the Bulldogs to finally get that elusive win over Alabama that they have been so close to getting since Kirby Smart took over (both games they were up big and couldn't hold on). 

The big headline coming in is that Alabama won't have Nick Saban on the field, as he can't be with the team after testing positive for Covid 19. I know the line has dropped a couple points after the news came out, but I think this is a massive blow to the Crimson Tide's chances in this game. 

You also have to look at the line and think about how much people love to bet Alabama. Thing is, when the books make them a favorite of less than a touchdown, things typically don't go well for the Crimson Tide backs. Since 2017 Alabama has been a favorite of less than -7 on 6 ocasssions. They are just 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in those games. 

People are going to want to give the edge offensively to Alabama, but it's closer than you think. While Georgia is only scoring 36.0 ppg they have done so against teams that have allowed on average just 25.8 ppg (+10.2). Alabama is scoring 51.0 ppg but it's come against teams that on average allow 41.2 (+9.8). 

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia has looked great and Alabama has looked a bit suspect. Bulldogs allowing just 12.3 ppg vs teams averaging 23.4 ppg (+11.1). Crimson Tide are allowing 30.3 vs teams averaging 31.4 (+1.1). 

We are going to find out just how good Mac Jones is as he finally faces a legit defense and one that is considered to have one of the best secondaries in the country. Give me the Bulldogs +4.5!  

40* TEXAS A&M/MISS STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Miss State +7)

 After that big upset of LSU in their season opener, where the Bulldogs put up 44 points and over 600 yards of total offense, they have laid back-to-back eggs. First it was that ugly loss at home to Arkansas and last week they were rolled 24-2 at Kentucky. 

Turnovers have really plagued the Bulldogs. They had 4 turnovers against the Razorbacks and 6 last week against the Wildcats. They are now -9 in the turnover department thru 3 games. That’s about as bad as you can do with turnovers in 3 games. There should be some positive regression going forward.  

Note that if not for those turnovers Mississippi State might be 3-0. They outgained Arkansas 400 to 275 and Kentucky 295 to 157. In 3 SEC games they are averaging 443 yards/game and giving up 286 ypg.  

The big reason that I like them against Texas A&M, is we should see the Bulldogs air attack put up some big numbers against a suspect Aggies secondary. Opposing QBs are completing 71.6% of their attempts against this Texas A&M defense. Alabama had 435 passing yards on them and Florida put up 312. It’s also worth noting the Aggies defense has only forced 4 turnovers in 3 games.

I also give the motivation edge to the Bulldogs. This is a prime letdown spot for Texas A&M coming off two massive games against Alabama and Florida, both of which were ranked in the Top 5 when they faced them.

As for Mississippi State this is put up or shut up time, especially after getting called out by their new head coach Mike Leach. He basically came out and said that there’s going to be some changes. Guys who aren’t playing with the right attitude and effort aren’t going to see the field and might be kicked off the team. Give me the Bulldogs +7.  

50* OLE MISS/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas St +2.5) 

I absolutely love this spot with the Razorbacks as a small home dog against Ole Miss. Even though the Rebels come into this game off a loss, the hype around this team is sky-high after what they were able to do against Alabama. The Rebels went score-for-score with the Crimson Tide before eventually falling short 63-48. 

When you put up nearly 50 points and rack up 647 yards against Alabama, people take notice. I just think it has Ole Miss getting way too much respect on the road against a pissed off Arkansas team that has to feel a bit cheated with how things ended in last week's 28-30 loss at Auburn. 

Auburn QB Bo Nix fumbled the snap and then tried to spike it. You can't spike after a fumble and thus it was a backward pass. The ball was live and Arkansas recovered, however the refs ruled that because some players stopped pursuing the ball they couldn't award them the recovery. Tigers go down and kick the game-winning field goal with 7 seconds left. 

What people are going to overlook with Ole Miss and their great showing vs Alabama, is just how hard it's going to be for them to bounce back from that game. That is one Lane Kiffin and the Rebels had circled, as he use to be Saban's OC and there was all kind of talks about how Saban owns his former assistants. 

The other big thing is defense. Ole Miss doesn't play it. In their 3 games so far they have allowed 51 points to Florida, 41 to Kentucky and 63 to Alabama. They are giving up an average of 641 yards/game and 8.8 yards/play. Simply put, Arkansas is going to score and score a lot. 

The key here is the Razorbacks defense, which has flashed early under new DC Barry Odom. I think Arkansas will find a way to make enough stops against what I expect to be a sloppy and unmotivated Ole Miss team. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5! 

40* AUBURN/S CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (S Carolina +3.5) 

I like the value here with the Gamecocks catching 3.5 at home against No. 15 Auburn.  I just don't feel that Auburn is as good as their ranking might lead people to believe.

They beat Kentucky 29-13 in their opener, but that was more evenly matched than the final score would indicate. UK had 1st and Goal from the 1 and didn't score before half (were trailing 8-7 at that time). Wildcats outgained the Tigers 384 to 324. 

Next time out they were absolutely no match for Georgia, losing 27-6 and getting outgained 442 to 216. They then were very fortunate to escape with a 30-28 win at home against Arkansas, as they were the benefit of a controversial call that had it gone the other way have ended the game with Arkansas winning 28-27. Instead they keep it and kick a FG to win it. Note Auburn only outgained the Razorbacks 446 to 437. 

South Carolina is just 1-2, but their two losses were a heartbreaker to Tennessee 31-27 and a 14-point loss to a very good Florida team. They got their first win last week in a 41-7 blowout win over Vandy. 

One of the big reasons I think Auburn is overvalued is Bo Nix has not made that big sophomore season jump that many were expecting. He's only completing 56.8% of his attempts. Last two games the Tigers have failed to reach 200 yards passing. They are going to have pto play right into the strength of South Carolina, which is much better vs the run than they are the pass. 

On the flip side of this, I've been impressed with Gamecocks QB Collin Hill and he should be in for a big day against a struggling Auburn secondary. Opposing QBs have completed 66% of their attempts with an average of 266 yards/game and 8.3 yards/attempt. Give me South Carolina +3.5! 

40* KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Kentucky +6) 

I see a ton of value here with Kentucky catching almost a TD on the road against the Volunteers. Even though the Wildcats come in off a 24-2 blowout win over Mississippi State, it still feels like the market is low on this team. Kentucky is just 1-2 overall, as they lost their opener 29-13 at Auburn and then lost 41-42 at home to Ole Miss. 

The game against Auburn was much closer than the 16-point margin. Kentucky beat themselves more than anything in that game. They then blew a 14-point 2nd half lead vs Ole Miss and lost the game because the kicker missed a PAT in OT. 

Tennessee's season has gone the opposite. They won their first two games, winning 31-27 at South Carolina and 35-12 at home vs Mizzu. Everyone was eager to see what they could do against a power like Georgia last week. It didn't go well. Vols lost 44-21 and it wasn't that close. Tenn was gifted 14-points off turnovers. They only finished the game with 214 total yards. 

Not only does that game show the Vols have a ways to go, but it's also a tough game for them to bounce back from. On top of the possibility of them hanging their heads from that loss, they also have a huge lookahead matchup with a home game against Alabama next Saturday. Give me Kentucky +6! 

50* BYU/HOUSTON NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston +5) 

I love the value here with the Cougars as a home dog against BYU. I not only think Houston will cover the number, but I like them to win this game outright. 

The Cougars come in ranked No. 14 in the country after their 4-0 start. While BYU does have a bunch of blowout wins on their resume, the schedule hasn't been all that tough with their 4 games against Navy, Troy, La Tech and UTSA. A far cry from what they were suppose to start the 2020 season with before covid hit (@ Utah, Mich St, @ Arizona St, @Minnesota. I like the talent on this BYU team, but this is not one of the 15 best teams in the country.

Houston had 5 different games postponed before finally getting to play their first game last week against Tulane. The Cougars showed some sloppiness early in that game, but ended up winning 49-31. A really remarkable win given they were -5 in the turnover department. 

When you see a score like 49-31, you instantly think their was no defense played. That wasn't the case. Houston's defense limited Tulane to just 211 total yards. Second year head coach Dana Holgorsen said last year he had the best defensive scout team in the history of college football. They definitely looked improved. 

That makes this a scary team with the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the Cougars +5! 

50* GA STATE/ARKANSAS ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas State -3) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* C CAROLINA/LAFAYETTE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Coastal Carolina +7.5) 

This is an easy play on Coastal Carolina catching +7.5. The Chanticleers have been one of the big surprises early on in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina improved to 3-0 with a 52-23 win against Arkansas State. Note that's a Red Wolves team that was considered a contender in this conference. It's also an Ark Sate team that had just had just won at Kansas State and only lost by 7 at Memphis. 

Coastal Carolina is now in year 3 under head coach Jamey Chadwell. This was his best team coming into a year he's had and the Chanticleers got in all 15 spring practices. This team really believes they can make some noise in the SBC. No question they are going to be up for this one. 

Not to take anything away from the Ragin' Cajuns, who are now ranked No. 25 in the country. I just don't this is a Top 25 team. Sure they had a big upset win over ISU (31-14), but keep in mind they had two return TDs. They have since squeaked out a 34-31 win against Georgia State and 20-18 win over Georgia Southern. 

One big positive on the field that I see for the Chanticleers is they should be able to play to their strength offensively in the run game. CC comes in averaging 199 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry. Arkansas State's defense is giving up 191 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. Give me the Chanticleers +7.5! 

50* BILLS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bills -3.5) 

Even though I'm confident the Bills will cover, I would strongly recommend buying this down to Buffalo -3 (not an option when submitting picks). There's just too many factors in favor of Buffalo to not play them at this price. 

The Titans come into this game 3-0, but I've not been that impressed with this team. They could just as easily be 0-3. All 3 wins have come by 3-points or less. 

Tennessee has had little to no practice time for this game, as their facility has been shutdown. They also got several key guys out because of Covid. They are extremely thin at WR and while A.J. Brown is expected back from injury, he might not be 100%. 

The biggest thing for me is I don't see the Titans defense being able to contain Josh Allen and this Bills offense. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (256.3 ypg) and 31st against the run (166.0 ypg). 

Titans do have two really good edge rushers in Clowney and Landry III, but they figure to be negated in this one, as Buffalo has two quality tackles in Dawkins and Williams. Give me the Bills -3.5!  

50* CHARGERS/SAINTS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +7.5) 

I love the Chargers at this price. I don't think it's out of the question that they leave New Orleans with a win. This Saints team has not looked anything like the Super Bowl contender everyone was claiming before the season started. 

I just think a lot of people are holding on to what Brees and this team has done in the past on MNF. I could maybe see it if Michael Thomas was playing, but he's not and shockingly it's not because he's still injured. Thomas got in a fight with a teammate during a weekend practice and is being suspended by the team. 

Chargers run a similar defense to the Falcons, which has given the Saints offense trouble. We have seen this defense disrupt things for Patrick Mahomes and had Brady in the Bucs down big early. I could definitely see them making life tough on this dink and dunk offense that NO runs.

All of this and I haven't mentioned the talented rookie QB the Chargers have in Herbert. I really think LA struck gold with this kid. Anthony Lynn is now the only thing holding this team back. I think Herbert will have success in this game. New Orleans is giving up 30.8 ppg. Give me the Chargers +7.5! 

40* COLTS/BROWNS NFL *SHARP STAKE* on Colts -2.5

I really like the value here with Indianapolis at -1.5 on the road against the Browns. This feels like the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. Chances are the Browns cost a lot of you some money last week, as just about every square was on the Cowboys -3 at home.  

Not only did the Browns cover, they destroyed Dallas 49-38 in a game that wasn’t anywhere close to what the final score would indicate. That’s now 3 straight wins and back-to-back covers for Cleveland.  

Keep in mind this is a team a lot of people were on coming into the year, so this success is going to draw a lot of public money back on this team, especially as a home dog. As of right now, close to 60% of the tickets on this game are on the Browns.  

I could be dead wrong, but I don’t Cleveland is a serious contender. I see them as a very mediocre 8-8 type of team. They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule, as their two other wins were at home against a couple of rebuilding teams in the Bengals and Redskins. I know every one thinks Dallas is this great team, but that defense the Cowboys are sending out on the field is one of the worst units I have ever seen.  

You also have to look at how the Browns are generating their offense. Baker Mayfield is in every other commercial right now and gets a lot of the attention, but he’s far from the reason this team is 3-1. In fact, Cleveland is 30th out of 32 teams in passing at 182.5 ypg. It’s been the Browns ability to run the ball, as they lead the league with an average of 204.5 ypg.  

Moving the chains on the ground against this Colts defense is going to a much more difficult task than some of the teams they have racked up big yards against the last few weeks. Indianapolis has the No. 4 ranked run defense, giving up just 77.0 yards/game. Not only that, Cleveland will be playing without leading rusher Nick Chubb. I get they got a good back up Kareem Hunt, but the loss of Chub is a big deal. Part of the reason both those guys have been so good is they are fresh the entire game with how they split reps.  

Without that running game picking up big yards on 1st and 2nd down, we are going to see Mayfield forced to make a lot more big plays on 3rd and long. Oh and in case you wondering, the Colts are No. 1 in the league vs the pass, giving up just 159.3 ypg.  I know Philip Rivers has really started to look old for the first time in his career, but this Cleveland defense is one he can exploit. Browns are 30th vs the pass giving up 310.5 ypg and are 27th in scoring, allowing 31.5 ppg.  

I really give the edge here to the Colts on both sides of the ball and that makes them an easy play with a spread that’s basically a pick’em. Give me Indy -1.5! 

40* DOLPHINS/49ERS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Dolphins +8.5) 

One of my biggest plays in Week 4 was the Eagles +7.5 on SNF against the 49ers. While I knew there was a good chance Philadelphia was going to play inspired after their 0-2-1 start and it being a prime time game, it was more of a fade of San Francisco. 

I can’t think of a team that’s been ravaged by injuries as much as the 49ers have been on both sides of the football. It just feels to me that this team is getting way too much respect for what they did a season ago in making it all the way to the Super Bowl.  

You have to wonder if this team played any other two teams besides the Jets and Giants in Weeks 2 and 3 if they wouldn’t be 0-4 instead of 2-2. The two New York teams are so much worse than the rest of the league it’s hard to believe. Not to mention that loss to the Cardinals is looking worse and worse with how poorly Arizona has played against some other mediocre teams. The loss to the Eagles is equally concerning.  

There’s absolutely no reason this team should be laying more than a TD against any team not named the Jets or Giants. Miami isn’t just capable of covering, they could definitely win this game outright.  Give me the Dolphins +8.5!

40* JAGUARS/TEXANS NFL NO-BRAINER (Texans -6) 

A lot of people look at a team like Houston, who just fired their head coach, as a team that's in shambles. It's never good to be in a position that you need to make that kind of change, especially in Week 5. 

However, I've found a lot of success playing on teams in the first game after they fired their head coach. Now you can't just back this blindly. The Jets could fire Gase and I wouldn't even consider taking them in their next game. 

I think we are going to see the best game of the season out of this Houston team. The players clearly weren't a fan of O'Brien. Now they got to back it up. They are going to be so motivated to show that O'Brien is what was holding them back. 

What better team to get all that frustration out on than the Jaguars. The only reason the Jags are remotely competitive is they got a pretty decent QB in Minshew. The rest of the team is pretty trash if you ask me. All 4 teams they have faced have scored at least 28 points. 

While we haven't quite seen it so far this season, Watson and that Texans offense should be one of the better units in the league. Part of their struggles is their schedule. Not only have they faced 3 of the best teams, but 3 of the better defenses in the league in the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers. Give me the Texans -6!

40* ALABAMA/OLE MISS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Ole Miss +24) 

All we keep hearing about with this game is how Nick Saban and Alabama have dominated when the Crimson Tide are facing a team that is coached by one of Saban's former assistants. This time it's Lane Kiffin with Ole Miss. 

Now I'm not giving the Rebels much of a shot of winning this game, but with the way they can put up points, I really like them to keep this within the number. Note we did see Alabama asked to cover a similar big number on the road against Missouri in their opener. They won the game 38-19 but didn't cover as a 28.5-point favorite. 

Another thing to keep in mind is this is a bit of a letdown spot for Alabama off that big game last week against Texas A&M. 

More than anything, I love that Ole Miss has the ability to play from behind and cover with the back door if things get out of hand early. Rebels feature one of the nations top passing attacks early on and we have seen the Crimson Tide pull off the dogs in the 2nd half (what they did against Missouri). Give me the Rebels +24! 

40* TEMPLE/NAVY NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Temple -3) 

The Owls are an easy play if you ask me. Temple is simply being undervalued because they have yet to play. We saw this on Thursday with Houston. The Cougars won and covered as 6.5-point favorites in a 49-31 win over Tulane and did so despite a -5 turnover margin, which tells you just how lopsided that was. 

With Houston's cover, teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent that has already played at least one game are 17-4-1 ATS this season. 

The other big thing here is how bad Navy has been. Outside of a good 2nd half against Tulane, where they rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win 27-24, this team has not been competitive. They lost their opener 55-3 at home to BYU getting outgained by the Cougars 580 to 149. They also lost 40-7 to Air Force getting outgained by the Falcons 410 to 241. 

This is not your typical Navy team that is one of the best in the country at running the football. Midshipmen are only averaging 138 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. With how bad their defense is, Navy has no shot of being competitive if they can't run the ball. Give me the Owls -3! 

40* TEXAS TECH/IOWA ST NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas Tech +12.5) 

Much like I played against Mississippi State last week coming off their big win over LSU, I want to fade the Cyclones off their big win over Oklahoma.  

It also has a lot to do with the number and the ability this Texas Tech offense has to put up points. It’s one thing for Iowa State to win the game, it’s another for them to win so by 13 or more points. 

 I definitely think this Texas Tech offense will be able to move the ball with their passing attack. Last week Oklahoma redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler went 25 of 36 for 300 yards and 2 scores. The week before TCU had 399 passing yards and would have had more if star quarterback Max Duggan played the entire game. He only played the 2nd half and had 241 yards and 3 scores.  

Texas Tech is currently 8th in the country in passing at 342.7 ypg. Starting QB Alan Bowman is questionable after being forced out of last week’s game against Kansas State with an ankle injury. With or without him I’m not to worried. Backup Henry Colombi replaced Bowman and went 30 of 42 for 244 yards and 2 scores.  

It’s also worth nothing that Texas Tech was in a really tough spot last week against K-State. They were doomed for a letdown after blowing that 15-point lead in the final 3 minutes of an overtime loss to rival Texas. They should be much more focused and motivated in this one.  Give me the Red Raiders +12.5! 

50* DUKE/SYRACUSE ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Duke -2.5) 

I'm going to gladly lay the 2.5 points with the Blue Devils on the road against the Orange. I just think we are getting an exceptional price with Duke because they come into this game at 0-4. Thing is, best case this team was going to be 1-3 with their schedule, as they have had to play Notre Dame Virginia and Virginia Tech. 

As for Syracuse, I think we are seeing them overvalued off back-to-back covers. They first lost by just 11 as a 21.5-point dog at Pitt and then won outright 37-20 as a 7.5-point home dog to Georgia Tech. I just don't think this team is very good. They were outgained by Pitt 342 to 171 and by the Yellow Jackets 453 to 357. 

If not for the fact that Orange defense has created 10 turnovers (+6 turnover margin), this line would be a lot more. Duke also has a -7 turnover margin, so there's some positive regression coming for them. Even if the Blue Devils can keep it at -1 or even in the turnover departement, I think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Duke -2.5! 

40* FLORIDA/TEXAS A&M NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Texas A&M +7) 

I was shocked to see the Aggies getting this many points at home. I just feel like we are seeing a big overreaction to how Texas A&M fared in last week’s game against Alabama. A lot of people thought the Aggies could make a game of it against the Crimson Tide and cover the +18 spread. They didn’t do either, as Alabama rolled to a 52-24 win.  

I think that has a lot of people firmly off the Texas A&M bandwagon, especially this week against a Florida team that is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Most notably Gators quarterback Kyle Trask, who is completing 72% of his attempts with a 10 to 1 TD-INT ratio.  

Given how Alabama’s Matt Jones just carved up the Aggies for 435 yards and 4 scores, most will just assume Trask does the same. I’m not going to say Trask will have a bad game, but I don’t think this Florida offense is as potent as what the Crimson Tide have to offer. Also should see a better performance from the Aggies D on their home field.  

Another thing here is that because so much focus has gone on Trask and the Florida offense, people are overlooking how bad their defense has been. Gators gave up 35 points in their opener at Ole Miss and then allowed 24 to South Carolina last week. Keep in mind this  Florida team finished 2019 giving up just 15.5 ppg and 305 yards/game.  

It’s really hard to win on the road, especially in the SEC, when you can’t stop the other team from scoring. 

I know the Aggies are far from a bottom feeder in the SEC, but there’s a chance Florida doesn’t give this team the respect they deserve after their poor showing against Alabama. This becomes even more of a concern when you factor in their home game against LSU next week.

Everyone has LSU circled on their schedules, especially Florida, who lost a back and forth thriller to the Tigers last year. Give me Texas A&M +7! 

40* VA TECH/N CAROLINA NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +5.5) 

I have this game much closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 2-0, despite the fact that they have been hit hard with injuries. Starting quarterback Hendon Hooker is one of several players who have missed the first game. 

However, Hooker is listed as probable on the injury report and I would expect several other Hokies to be back in action. With Hooker back in action, this Virginia Tech offense is going to be tough to stop. Hokies rushed for 314 in their opener against NC State and then had 324 in their win at Duke. Teams knew they were only looking to run and couldn't stop it. Now they are really going to pay if they sell out to try to stop it. 

As for North Carolina, this is a team that I haven't been all that impressed with. Tar Heels slept walk through the 1st half of their 31-6 win at Syracuse and then only beat BC on the road 26-22. I'm not even so sure with the lack of homefield advantage this year that UNC should even be favored. I certainly don't think they are the No. 8 best team in the country. 

This is also a spot Virginia Tech has thrived in. Hokies are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games when off a conference win by 7 or less (beat Duke 38-31) and are also 15-5 ATS last 20 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me Virginia Tech +5.5! 

40* TULANE/HOUSTON NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Houston -6.5) 

It's been a crazy start to the season for Houston. The Cougars have not played a game yet in 2020, as they have seen opponent after opponent not be able to play because of Covid. They have had 5 different games on the schedule fall through. As much as this team wants to get on the field, the extra practice certainly can't hurt. 

There's no debating on what kind of effort we are going to get from Houston. The Cougars are going to be jacked up for this one. I think Dana Holgorsen's team is going to come out and make a statement.

Houston went just 4-8 last year, which I think is playing into the number here a little and giving us a decent price at less than touchdown. Thing you have to keep in mind is starting QB D'Eriq King shocked the team by redshirting after 4 games. Not only did they lose King, they had a bunch of injuries. 

Not only that, they had a number of transfers sitting out last year. Holgorsen, who is now in year two, called his scout team defense the best in CFB history. Clearly that's an exaggeration, but still a big plus. 

Tulane beat them last year, so there's also that for motivation. Green Wave come in 2-1, but two of those wins are against Southern Miss and South Alabama. They also blew a 20+ point lead in a loss to Navy (Midshipmen have been outscored 95-10 in their other two games). 

Tulane is down one of their top rushers in Tyjae Spears and are going with true freshman Michael Pratt as their starting QB. Give me Houston -6.5! 

50* EAGLES/49ERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles +7.5) 

It's only been 3 weeks into the season and everyone can't stop talking about how bad the Eagles are playing, especially starting QB Carson Wentz. It hasn't been good, but I'm willing to give this team a shot here at this price. 

Not only do I think this is a good time to buy low on Philadelphia, but I also feel like this is the perfect spot to sell high on the 49ers. San Francisco has been absolutely decimated by injuries. There's too many to list, but it's a lot and it's a lot of their best players. 

The thing is, the 49ers come into this game off two dominant wins despite all those injuries. They crushed the Jets 31-13 on the road and then beat the Giants 36-9. I get those are some lopsided scores, but the Jets and the Giants are awful. I personally think they are in a class by their own at the bottom. 

Simply put, I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't be overvalued after playing those two teams in consecutive weeks. Add in the 49ers being a very public team off their Super Bowl run, I believe this has been inflated even more. It would not surprise me at all if the Eagles won this game. Give me Philadelphia +7.5! 

40* COLTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +3) 

I'm honestly a bit shocked that the Bears are +3 at home. Chicago is 3-0 and off a big come from behind win over the Falcons. Colts are just 2-1 and have one of the worst losses on the season, falling to Jacksonville in Week 1. 

A lot of people see the Bears as a fluke and some of that 3-0 is definitely good fortune. The thing is that was a different team. One in which that was quarterback by Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles replaced Trubisky and led the comeback last week. An offense that has struggled to score all season went up and down the field. Trubisky is by far one of the least talented NFL quarterbacks to start as many games as he did. 

As for the Colts, I don't know that they are all they are made out to be. They rebounded from that loss to the Jags with convincing wins over the Vikings and Jets. Minnesota doesn't looking anything close to a contender and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. 

The offense has left a lot to be desired and they are down quite a few key guys on that side of the ball. Chicago's defense hasn't been dominant, but we know the talent is there for them. I really think Foles being the starter adds new life to this defense. They no longer have to play perfect for them to win. Give me the Bears +3! 

40* VIKINGS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Texans -3.5) 

I locked in the Texans early in this week. I think this is the time to jump on Houston. The Texans really had no shot at being anything other than 0-3. They had to play at the Chiefs in Week 1, hosted the Ravens in Week 2 and played at Pittsburgh in Week 3. Without question they played the two best teams in the AFC, maybe the NFL and the Steelers aren't far behind. 

The Vikings are also 0-3, but it's been a much different 0-3 than the Texans. Minnesota has not played nearly as tough of schedule. They are also getting absolutely walked all over on the defensive side of the ball. They just lost too much. There's not really anything they can do to fix it short-term. 

I'm expecting a big game out of Deshaun Watson and I'll take my chances that the Texans defense can get enough stops to put this game away and cover the spread. Kirk Cousins has been really inconsistent early. I think he clearly misses Diggs and there's so much pressure on them to score with how bad their defense is playing. Give me the Texans -3.5! 

50* CARDINALS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -3.5) 

After last week's upset loss at home to the Lions, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump on the Cardinals as a slim road favorite against the Panthers. Arizona definitely did themselves no favors with 3 turnovers (-3 turnover margin). I think some of that was just a lack of focus from them being 2-0 and feeling like they were just going to walk all over an 0-2 Lions team. 

Arizona's offense still put up a solid 377 yards and had 28 first downs. Kyler Murray wasn't nearly as effective on the ground and all 3 turnovers were interceptions he threw. I really like this kid and I think he bounces back in a big way. 

It certainly helps matters that he's facing an awful Panthers defense. Carolina is bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. We have seen them give up 34 to the Raiders and 31 to the Bucs. They did hold the Chargers to just 16 last week, but that's very misleading. LA had 436 yards of total offense, with rookie Justin Herbert throwing for more than 300 yards. 

Add in the fact that the Panthers don't have McCaffrey and they are really left no choice but to pass. Less running means less time of possession and more possessions for the Arizona offense. I really don't think this will be close. Give me the Cardinals -3.5! 

40* OKLAHOMA/IOWA ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Iowa State +7.5) 

I see some great value here with the Cyclones as a 7.5-point dog at home to Oklahoma. I think we got a little too accustomed to seeing this Sooners offense plug in a new QB under head coach Lincoln Riley and dominate. They did it two years ago when Kyler Murray replaced Baker Mayfield and last year with Jalen Hurts. Thing is, both Murray and Hurts were veteran transfers. 

This year they are turning to a red-shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler. Kid is definitely talented and is more than likely going to be a star by the time he leaves Norman, but he's really raw. We saw his lack of experience show in their huge upset loss to K-State last week. He threw 3 interceptions and just looked rattled once things started to turn in the Wildcats favor. 

My big concern with Rattler in 2020, is the Sooners don't have the rushing attack that they have had in previous years. They only managed 130 rushing yards on 35 attempts against K-State. This is a team that's put up 240+ each of the last two years on the ground and 200+ in all 3 years under Riley. ISU has an outstanding run defense. 

I think the Cyclones defense will be able to put a lot of pressure on Rattler and I see him struggling in his first road start. Iowa State is not an easy place to play. I really think the Cyclones can win here. 

ISU has won and covered all 4 times they have faced OU under Matt Campbell and teams like Oklahoma that are coming off a home loss as a 23+ favorite, where they allowed 30 or more points are a dismal 1-15-1 ATS in their next game if favored against an unranked opponent. These teams are just 9-8 SU and failing to cover by more than 10 ppg. Give me Iowa State +7.5! 

50* AUBURN/GEORGIA SEC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Georgia -6.5) 

I love the Bulldogs laying less than a touchdown at home against the Tigers. If you were watching college football last week, many of you probably at least saw that Georgia struggled early against Arkansas. They didn't take their first lead in the game until a 3rd quarter score put them up 13-10. 

They would go on to win that game 37-10, just missing out on covering as a 28-point favorite. Still I think that slow start has some second-guessing this team. 

The big key here is there's reason to believe Georgia's offense will start much stronger in this game. Bulldogs offense took off when Stetson Bennett replaced starter Dwan Mathis. They could see a massive upgrade at the position if USC transfer J.T. Daniels shows enough in practice to win the job. However, I got confidence in Bennett if Daniels can't go. 

Another huge factor for me and laying the 6.5 is I just don't see Auburn's offense being able to do much against this Georgia defense. Many thought this Bulldogs defense was the most talented unit in the country coming into the year and they were dominant against Arkansas. Give me Georgia -6.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISS ST NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Arkansas +18) 

I think this is an ideal spot to fade Mississippi State. The Bulldogs come in off a massive upset of No. 6 LSU. Mississippi State won the game 44-34. They went off as a 14.5 point dog, but were much higher. In fact I cashed a 50* Top Play on the Bulldogs +17. 

I would be lying if I said I thought they were going to put up 40+ and KJ Costello was going to throw for 600+ yards. However, I bet on Mississippi State in that game because of what I thought of LSU. 

 The Tigers couldn’t have been more overrated coming into this season. The dropped all the way back to No. 20 in the polls and with the talent in the SEC, I think they will struggle to have a winning record.  

Regardless of how overrated LSU was, that doesn’t change how motivated Mississippi State was for that game. Any time you get a shot at the defending champion, you show up with your best and that’s what they did.  Asking them to bring that same intensity into this game is asking a lot. After losing their opener to Georgia at home, Arkansas has now lost 20 straight conference games.  

Not to mention the Bulldogs have a 3-game gauntlet coming up as they go @ Kentucky, host Texas A&M and then go @ Alabama.  

I’m not just taking Arkansas because of the spot. I liked the hire of head coach Sam Pittman and even more so offensive coordinator Kendall Briles. They also brought in former Florida QB Felipe Franks to guide the offense. I know they only scored 10 against Georgia, but that’s a defense that many thought might be the best overall unit in the country this year.  

I’m confident the Razorbacks will be able to move the ball against this Mississippi State defense, that clearly still has some learning to do in their new 3-3-5 scheme. I’ll take my chances with Arkansas keeping it within 17 or less. Give me the Razorbacks +18 

40* TCU/TEXAS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (TCU +13) 

Hats off to Texas for their crazy come-from-behind win against Texas Tech last week. Longhorns trailed by 15 with 3:13 to play. They managed to score twice to force OT and then won it in extra time. 

That's great, but it doesn't change the fact that they trailed Texas Tech by 15 with 3 minutes to play. Or that their defense gave up 56 points and 447 yards. The same Texas Tech team that only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 in their opener. 

I just don't think Texas should be laying almost two TDs against this TCU team. Horned Frogs lost their opener to ISU, but backup Matthew Downing started the game, before starter Max Duggan took over in the 2nd half. For those that don't know, Duggan had a heart problem and was clearly shortly before the game, so that's why he didn't start. 

TCU's offense scored just 7 points in the 1st half under Downing. They had 27 in the 2nd half under Duggan. He's a difference maker and played a big role in TCU's 37-27 win over Texas last year, throwing for 273 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 72 yards and a score. Give me TCU +13! 

40* BAYLOR/W VIRGINIA NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (W Virginia +3) 

I'm going to back the Mountaineers as a slim home dog against Baylor on Saturday. I played West Virginia last week at +6.5 against Oklahoma State. They didn't get there in a 27-13 loss, but were a bit unfortunate to not do so. They killed themselves falling behind 17-0 early, thanks in large part to a fumble that the Cowboys returned 56 yards for a score. 

West Virginia was able to climb back within 7 points in the 4th quarter. They ended up outgaining Oklahoma State 353-342. 

I like what I've seen out of junior quarterback Jarret Doege and I think we are going to see the Mountaineers offense show up in a big way against the Bears. 

Don't overreact to Baylor's 47-14 blowout win over Kansas in their first game. That Jayhawks team is trash and that's a very misleading score. Baylor only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. They got 16 points from their defense/special teams (safety and two kickoff return TDs). They also added a garbage TD up 40-14 late in the 4th quarter. 

Keep in mind Baylor is expected to be down some this year. They are in the first year of new head coach Dave Aranda, who is a defensive guy in a game that has gotten really offensive over the last decade. Baylor's defense only returned 2 starters and lost their 3 studs up front. I also think it's concerning that Brewer only went 15 of 23 for 142 yards against that KU defense. Give me West Virginia +3! 

50* NC STATE/PITT NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pittsburgh -14) 

I played against Pitt last week against Louisville and was a bit fortunate to get a push with the Cardinals at +3. I didn't think that Panthers defense was going to look as good as it did. They made a really good QB in Louisville's Malik Cunningham look bad. Cunningham was just 9 of 21 for 107 yards with a 1 TD and 3 INTs. Cunningham had thrown for 300+ in each of his first two games, including 307 and 3 scores against Miami the week before. 

Pitt should have no problem getting enough stops against this NC State team to pull away an easily cover the two touchdown spread. The Wolfpack had more than their fair share of troubles moving the ball against the Hokies last week. They only had 10 points midway thru the 3rd quarter and trailed 37-10 at that point. They added two TDs the rest of the way, but you got to think some of that was the Hokies calling off the dogs. 

Key here is that while the Panthers offense is a bit limited, they should have zero problem putting up points against this NC State defense. They just gave up 45 to Virginia Tech and the Hokies played without their starting QB Malik Hooker. They could not stop the run, giving up 314 yards on 41 attempts. This is after they allowed 42 the week before against a bad Wake Forest offense. Give me Pittsburgh -14! 

50* BRONCOS/JETS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Broncos -3) 

I spent a lot of time handicapping this game and as much as I wanted to take the Jets as a home dog, I just can't do it. New York is awful. I really think they are going to lose big again and there's a good chance they fire Gase after this game. 

With scoring way up this year, the Jets are as bad a offensive team as I can remember. They have scored 37 points in 3 games (12.3 ppg). Last week their offense scored 7 points and gave up 16 (two pick sixes and a safety). New York has not held a lead at any point this season. 

Darnold has not played well, but it's not all his fault. The talent that has been put around him is a joke. Thing could get worse. Jets stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton is likely not going to play with a shoulder injury. Note their swing tackle Chuma Edoga is already filling in at right tackle for the injure George Fant. 

I'm not going to sit here an endorse the Broncos, because there's a lot of problems with this team. More than anything injuries have ravaged this team. I know they weren't all that competitive last week against Tampa Bay, but they had a shot at winning Week 1 against the Titans (lost 14-16) and Week 2 at Pittsburgh (lost 21-26). I just think they are the better coached and more talented team. Give me the Broncos -3! 

*This line has moved quite a bit since Denver announced that Rypien is going to start. When I handicapped this game I assumed there was a chance he would play. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the line move. It doesn't change how I feel about this play. 

50* CHIEFS/RAVENS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3)

*Analysis Coming* 

50* PACKERS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Saints -3)

This is a no-brainer if you ask me. All we are hearing right now is how washed up Drew Brees is (only time a guy throws for 300+ in a game and is getting dogged). I can't imagine how jacked up the Saints are to get on the field for this game. I got good feeling here that Brees is going to quiet some of those critics in this one. 

What people overlook with the Saints 24-34 loss to the Raiders is they beat themselves. New Orleans put up 424 yards and averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play. It looked like it was JV vs varsity early on. Penalties killed a lot of Saints drives. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that New Orleans is just not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. With Payton as head coach, Saints are 28-13 ATS last 41 off a road loss. 

As for the Packers, people are firmly on the Green Bay bandwagon after they have opened up 2-0 with a 43-34 win over the Vikings and 42-21 victory against Detroit. I just don't think either of those teams are any good, especially on the defensive side. 

Big loss here for Rodgers and the Packers offense with wideout Davante Adams doubtful to play. Green Bay has also been running the ball with a ton of success (had 259 on the ground vs Lions). New Orleans is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry. I just think GB has trouble keeping pace with the Saints. Give me New Orleans -3! 

40* TITANS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Titans -2.5) 

Every year there’s a team the books just can’t price right early on. I believe Minnesota is that team in 2020. I’m certainly not going to stop fading the Vikings now. Especially when all we really need is for Tennessee to win the game.  

I had a 50* Top Play on Green Bay +2.5 in Week 1 at Minnesota and last week I gave out the Colts -3 at home against the Vikings. Neither game was close.  That’s the key. It’s not shocking that Minnesota is 0-2 having started out against Aaron Rodgers and on the road against a good Colts team. It’s how they competed in those games.  

Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in 2014, defense has been the foundation of this team and no surprise given Zimmer’s defensive background.  Don’t get me wrong he’s a great defensive coach. He just doesn’t have the players on the roster for his coaching to matter. They were decimated on the defensive line and at corner. Now they are down one of their best linebackers in Anthony Barr.  

They just gave up 100-yard game to rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and now have to try to stop the beast that is Derek Henry.  Everyone also just thinks Henry when they think of the Titans. Ryan Tannehill can sling it. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns without a pick in his first two starts and if you back to last season, he’s thrown 2 or more TDs in 13 of his last 15 starts and that includes his 3 playoff starts.

As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins was awful against the Colts. He completed just 11 of 26 for 113 yards and threw 3 interceptions. I think he really misses Stefon Diggs.  

I think some of these coaches/GMs are learning the hard way how much a negative impact losing a star WR like Diggs or DeAndre Hopkins can have, especially when you don’t replace him with an equal talent. I think it hurts even more for an average QB like Cousins.  

Lastly I think not having fans is a massive blow to the Vikings.  Minnesota doesn’t always get mentioned as a tough place to play, but the advanced numbers suggest they had one of the biggest homefield advantages of any team. This year more than any that defense needs the energy of the crowd and it’s just not there. Give me the Titans -2.5. 

40* TEXANS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -4) 

I'm going to roll the dice here with Pittsburgh laying just 4-points at home against the Texans. The Steelers let me down last week, as they won by just 5 at home over the Broncos (led by double-digits in the 4th). It was a real sloppy showing for Pittsburgh, who may have let their guard down after Broncos starting QB Drew Lock left the game early with an injury. 

I expect a much more focused and energized Steelers team off that poor showing against a top tier QB like Deshaun Watson. That's all we really need for Pittsburgh to win and cover here. As good as Watson is, he's really all the Texans got and some of his talent is negated by the poor coaching of Bill O'Brien. 

Watson also has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and that's a recipe for disaster against this top tier Steelers pass rush. Look for the Texans to be playing behind the chains all day in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -4! 

50* RAIDERS/PATRIOTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -5) 

I love the value here with New England at -5. I've been pretty spot on with the Patriots early on. I cashed on them -6.5 in Week 1 against the Dolphins then won easily on the the Pats/Seahawks O44.5 in Week 2. I really think this team is better than they are getting credit for. This is one of the best teams in the AFC. 

The Raiders are getting a ton of love for their 34-24 win over the Saints on MNF in Week 2 (I was on Oakland +6), but I just don't think they are as good as what people think. The defense gave up 7.4 yards/play against New Orleans. Penalties really killed the Saints (10 for 129). NE is a disciplined team under Belichick, so that edge won't be there in this one. 

This is also an awful spot for Oakland. Raiders are on short rest after playing on MNF. They also are having to travel across the country for an early game, which is never easy for the west coast teams. Give me the Patriots -5! 

50* VA TECH/NC STATE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -6.5) 

I love the value here with the Hokies laying less than a touchdown at home against the Wolfpack. I don't know if it's the fact that NC State put up 45 points in last week's season opener against Wake Forest, but I don't know what the books are seeing that makes them think the Wolfpack can make a game of this. 

NC State had 270 yards on 49 rushing attempts against the Demon Deacons. They aren't going to sniff those kind of numbers against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has 10 returning starters on a defense that only gave up 139 ypg last year. I know Bud Foster is gone, but the defense should be improved. 

I also think you got to look at how much better the offense was last year once Hendon Hooker took over at QB. They put up 34.3 ppg in his 8 starts and he completed 61% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. 

Hokies should have a field day here offensively against a NC State defense that allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The same WF team that had 3 points thru 3 quarters the previous week against Clemson. Give me the Hokies -6.5! 

40* TENNESSEE/S CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -3) 

I think we are getting a gift with the Volunteers only laying a field goal on the road against South Carolina. If there's a team that no one is talking about that could make some series noise in the SEC this year, I think Tennessee has to be at the top of that list. 

Sure the expectations are high, but no one is giving this team a shot at winning the East. It's all Georgia and Florida. I'm not saying they will, but they beat Georgia last year and played Florida tough. 

Tennessee is now in year three under Jeremy Pruitt and will have 17 returning starters. With a healthy Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, the offense should take a huge jump this year. As for the defense, it's only gotten better since Pruitt arrived. Vols allowed 27.9 ppg in his first year with only 6 starters back and 21.7 ppg last year with only 5 starters back. 

South Carolina went just 4-8 last year and should be improved, I don't think they are anywhere close in terms of talent. I also think it's a big deal that Williams-Brice has a fan limit on games. Give me the Volunteers -3! 

50* MISS ST/LSU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mississippi State +17) 

I will gladly take the 17-points with Mike Leach and Mississippi State against LSU. Last year was something special, but I'm just not buying the Tigers being anywhere close to what they were given what they lost. LSU has just 8 starters back from their title team. 

Not only do they have to replace the Heisman winner in Joe Burrow, but WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire both were 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It's not just the players either, LSU lost their passing game coordinator in Joe Brady and one of the best defensive coordinators coordinators in the country in Dave Aranda (head coach at Baylor). 

Say what you want about Leach, the guy knows how to coach offense and his teams at Washington State always seemed to be better than expected. I can think back to 2018 when they had only 10 starters back and went 11-2. I think he can do wonders with new quarterback K.J. Costello, who transferred in from Stanford. I also think the defense will be able to hold its own. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Bulldogs won this game. Give me Mississippi State +17! 

40* GEORGIA TECH/SYRACUSE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Tech -7.5) 

The fact that Georgia Tech is laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Orange, tells you everything you need to know about how little the books think of this Syracuse team. 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and be inclined to take the points. Not me. As painful as it was to watch Georgia Tech commit turnover after turnover in their failed attempt to cover against UCF, they are 100% the better team in this matchup. 

Syracuse hung around at UNC in their opener, but the wheels fell off in the 2nd half and the Tar Heels wound up winning and covering 31-6. The Orange were able to cash in a cover as a 21.5-point dog against Pitt, but that was a lot more lopsided than the final. Panthers had a 342-171 edge in total yards 

I don't think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit for how good they have been given they had to start out the year against FSU and UCF. As long as they don't turn it over 5 times like they did against the Knights, I think the Yellow Jackets win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Georgia Tech -7.5! 

40* LOUISVILLE/PITT NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville +3) 

I think this is a prime spot to jump on the Cardinals after a disappointing showing at home against Miami. A lot of people were laying the -2.5 with Louisville in that game. Including myself.  It can be hard to back the same team that just cost you money the week before, especially when it never felt like Louisville was the right team the entire way.  

Cardinals took a 3-0 lead, but quickly fell behind 14-3 by the end of the 1st quarter. They would get it down to 7 twice in the 3rd quarter, only to give up a TD in a matter of seconds. First they gave up a 75 yard run, then it was a 75 yard pass.  I’m not about to say Louisville should have won that game. Even with a 516 to 485 edge in total yards and 29-19 advantage in first downs, Miami was the better team in that game.  

I do think Louisville hurt themselves in that game. Not finishing drives early and they were -3 in the turnover department. I just think Scott Satterfield and that staff will have the players full attention in practice.  I said this earlier in the season, the Cardinals have a bit time talent at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. They also got some really good playmakers at running back and receiver.  

Pittsburgh was suppose to field a great defense this year, at least until they lost 2nd-Team All-American defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and one of their top secondary players in Damarri Mathis. Instead of 7 starters back they only return 5 and the loss of Twyman is big.  I get the defense shutout Austin Peay in their opener and held Syracuse to 10 points and 171 yards, but that’s nothing to be excited about. This is a massive step up in competition for them and we just saw what Louisville can do against a great defensive team. 

 I don’t love what I see out of the Pitt offense, especially given who they have played. While the Panthers are averaging 137 yards/game on the ground, they only managed 3.5 yards/carry. I think Louisville can really make them one dimensional and I just don’t see Pitt being able to keep pace. Give me the Cardinals +3.  

40* MIDD TENN/UTSA CFB SHARP STAKE (UTSA -6.5) 

I'm backing UTSA laying less than a touchdown at home against the Blue Raiders. I just don't know how Middle Tennessee's defense will be able to make enough stops to keep this close. The Blue Raiders lost 42-0 in their opener to Army and were outgained 368 to 184. That's a ton against a team like the Black Knights who don't throw the ball (shortens the game). They followed that up with a 47-14 loss to Troy, getting outgained 496-241. 

The books weren't even close with the spreads for either of those games. Middle Tennessee was only +3.5 against Army and the same +6.5 against Troy. I get UTSA isn't a great team, but they won their first two games and have a dual threat QB in Frank Harris (rushed for 155 yards and 5 scores in 2 games). Bad defenses against mobile quarterbacks, usually doesn't go well. Give me the Roadrunners -6.5! 

40* UAB/S ALABAMA NCAAF NO BRAINER (S Alabama +7.5) 

I played and won on the Jaguars in their 32-21 upset win at Southern Miss as a 12-point dog in Week 1. I've also played against UAB early on (@ Miami) and cashed. Hard for me to not take South Alabama catching more than a TD at home. I don't think it would be a shock at all if the Jags won this game. 

UAB gets a lot of love for what they have done, but last year's trip to the C-USA title game was real fluky. They weren't that good of a team and we saw that in the title game, which they lost 49-6 to FAU. They have been overpriced by the books in each of their first two, as they only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a near 3 TD favorite in Week 1. Give me South Alabama +7.5! 

40* SAINTS/RAIDERS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Raiders +6) 

I'm going to put my trust in Jon Gruden and the Raiders as a near touchdown dog at home on Monday Night Football. I just feel there's too much value with Las Vegas to pass up. 

I know the Saints pulled away from Tom Brady and the Bucs in their 34-23 Week 1 win and cover, but I wasn't all that impressed with New Orleans. At least not to the extent of others. Drew Brees was only 18 of 30 for 160 yards (5.3 per attempt). New Orleans as a team only had 271 total yards. They still don't have Mike Thomas and he's such a huge part of what they do offensively. 

Raiders snuck out a 34-30 on the road in Week 1 at Carolina. Plenty Las Vegas has to work on, but I thought they ran the ball really well with Jacobs and Booker. Derek Carr also played well. I think they can play ball control and keep the possessions down. If they do that, they might win this game outright. Give me the Raiders +6! 

50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5) 

I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league.  He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts.  

He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins.  

I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks.  

I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5

40* VIKINGS/COLTS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3) 

I’m going to lay the field goal with the Colts at home against the Vikings.  I almost laid the touchdown with Indianapolis in Week 1 at Jacksonville. Glad I didn’t, but I’m not so sure it wasn’t the right play despite the result.  

The Colts had a 445 to 241 edge in total yards. They outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards. That was the best yardage differential of any team in Week 1.  I know Philip Rivers had a couple of costly interceptions that led to the score being what it was, but I still think he makes the Colts a contender. Losing Marlon Mack to a season-ending injury is a big blow, but they drafted a guy who many thought was going to overtake him in Jonathan Taylor.  

I think this offense is going to be able to whatever they want against this Vikings defense. Minnesota was gashed in Week 1, allowing a league-worst 522 yards to the Packers. Not only did Aaron Rodgers carve them up for 364 yards and 4 scores, Green Bay rushed for 158 yards and 4.9 yards/carry.  

This is not your typical Mike Zimmer defense. They don’t got legit NFL corners on their roster. They knew the ball was going to Davante Adams and there was nothing they could do to stop it. Adams had 14 catches for 156 yards and 2 scores.  Minnesota is also not nearly as strong on the defensive line and we saw that with how Green Bay ran all over them.  

Lastly, I think the Indianapolis defense doesn’t get the respect it deserves. They have been getting better and better ever since they drafted linebacker Darius Leonard. I also loved the addition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. I think they can make life difficult here on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Give me the Colts -3!  

40* BRONCOS/STEELERS NFL STEAMROLLER (Steelers -7) 

I just don't see Drew Lock and that Denver offense being able to score enough to make a game of this. This Steelers defense is the real deal. They just held Saquon Barkley to a mere 6 yards on 15 attempts.

Denver does have Melvin Gordon, but the loss of Phillip Lindsay is big for this team. We also don't know if Lock will have wideout Courtland Sutton or KJ Hamler. I think Pittsburgh can make the Broncos one-dimensional. 

Denver's held the Titans to just 14 points in Week 1, but Tennessee moved the ball up and down the field against them. If it wasn't for all those missed kicks, Titans would have won by double-digits.

Pittsburgh has a much more explosive offense than Tennessee. Big Ben is also one of those guys that puts up way better stats at home than on the road. This game doesn't figure to be close for long. Give me the Steelers -7! 

50* MIAMI/LOUISVILLE CFB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Louisville -2.5) 

We cashed on Scott Satterfield's Cardinals in Week 1. It wasn't the most lopsided of Covers. Louisville only won by 14 (35-21) as a 11.5-point favorite. Thing is the final score doesn't paint the right picture. Louisville dominated that game. They had a massive 487-248 edge in total yards with a 22-12 advantage in first downs. 

The good news is, I think it's helping us with the line on the Cardinals this week. It's not going to be much longer before people realize how good this Louisville team is. They got a star at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. He threw for 343 yards and 3 scores against the Hilltoppers. That kind of talent at QB with an experienced team is danger. 

Miami defeated UAB 35-14 as a 15.5-point favorite. A lot of people doubted the Hurricanes could cover that two+ TD spread. I think it now has the Hurricanes a bit overvalued. I had Miami in that game. I just didn't think the Blazers were all people were making them out to be. The Hurricanes had a talent edge across the board. They won't have that against Louisville. 

Also, that game was closer than the final score would lead on. Miami only led 17-14 midway through the 3rd quarter. I honestly expected a lot more out of the Hurricanes. I just don't know if Manny Diaz is the right guy at head coach for that program. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! 

40* UCF/GEORGIA TECH NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech +7.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with my assumption of Georgia Tech coming into this season. I just thought this whole transition from the triple-option to a more conventional offense would be a lot harder than it has. Head coach Geoff Collins has sped up the process. That's a good Florida State team that they just went on the road and beat. 

It wasn't just that the Yellow Jackets wanted it more against the Seminoles. They were the better team. It also feels like they have struck gold with true freshman quarterback Jeff Sims. He went 24 or 35 for 277 passing yards. He also rushed for 64 yards on 13 attempts. He did throw 2 picks, but for me he passed the eye test. He's why this team is a ahead of schedule. 

I know there's concern of a letdown off the big upset win, I just don't see it happening. I think Georgia Tech is playing with a chip on their shoulder and what better way to make a statement than back up that win with another win. This time against a top 15 team in UCF. One in which Collins has connections with (UCF assistant 2008-09). No way I'm passing up on the 7.5, but I like Georgia Tech to win this game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7.5!

40* BOSTON COLLEGE/DUKE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +6) 

The Eagles are a team I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. BC went out and hired Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to be their new head coach. Prior to that he spent 7 years as an NFL assistant. HE hired Frank Cignetti to be his OC and Tem Lukabu to be his DC. Both of which have coached at the NFL level.  

I know the offseason hasn’t been ideal for teams, but I just think the players are going to be all ears with these coaches and the Eagles are an experienced team with 15 starters back.  The big concern some might have is how they replace star running back A.J. Dillon and starting quarterback Anthony Brown.  One of the first things Hafley did was go out and get Notre Dame transfer quarterback Phil Jorkovec, who many considered a Top 5 option at the position coming out of HS.  

I know they haven’t named the starter, but I would be shocked if it’s not Jorkovec.  As for Dillon, BC has their next star back ready to burst onto the season in junior David Bailey. Guy quietly rushed for 844 yards and 7 scores as Dillon’s backup. He also averaged 5.7 yards/carry, a better mark than Dillon, who was at 5.3 ypc.  

Add in what should be one of, if not, the best OL in the ACC and an underrated receiving corps that will feature sophomore wide out Jaelen Gill, a transfer who followed Hafley here from the Buckeyes.  Defense has been a problem, but that’s where Hafley and Lukabu come into play. I think he’ll be able to put together a game-plan for Duke.

This is a letdown for Duke. It’s a big deal playing at Notre Dame and they went into South Bend thinking they could upset a Top 10 team in the Irish. Give me Boston College +5.5!  

40* CHARGERS/BENGALS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Bengals +3) 

I don't understand at all why the Chargers are favored on the road against the Bengals. I get Cincinnati was bad last year, but all indications are that rookie Joe Burrow is every bit as good as advertised. Not only are they getting a major upgrade at QB, but they also add back a Pro Bowl caliber WR in A.J. Green, who missed all of last year. 

As for the Chargers, they are making the transition from a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Philip Rivers to the likes of Tyrod Taylor. I'm not saying Taylor is terrible, but if the guy was legit he would have been starting by now. He's a solid No. 2 quarterback. Certainly doesn't help the Chargers are coming into Week 1 with a banged up offensive line. 

There's some decent talent on the LA defense, but I just think they are going to be on the field a lot and more than anything, I'm rolling the dice on Burrow. Give me the Bengals +3! 

40* DOLPHINS/PATRIOTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Patriots -6.5)

Big revenge game out of the gate for NE. Dolphins cost them a first round bye in the playoffs last year with that big upset win in Week 17.  

I’ve been in plenty of arguments with some friends about what the Patriots will look like without Tom Brady. I would say the consensus is that New England will struggle without him. Add in all the guys they had opt out and everyone is calling for their reign on top the AFC East to be over.  

I’m on the exact opposite end of the spectrum. Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL. Has been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. There’s nothing more Belichick wants to do than show everyone he doesn’t need Brady to win.  

What’s crazy is, he’s already shown us that. They went 11-5 with Matt Cassel back in 2008 when Brady was lost for the season in Week 1. They went 3-1 in 2016 with an inexperienced Garoppolo and Brissett when Brady was suspended.  

Not sure if you were paying attention, but he’s got a former MVP in Cam Newton now at quarterback. I don’t know why this isn’t a bigger deal. I’ve talked crap about Cam on this podcast in the past, but injuries are the big reason Cam hasn’t been great the last few years. All indications are that he’s as healthy as he’s been in a long time.  

The only concern to me would be how Newton and Belichick meshed and so far it’s been all roses. Not to mention Newton was named a captain, so the players clearly respect this guy.  

They are going to run an offense that is completely tailored to Cam’s strength’s and by doing so,  Miami’s not going to have a clue what to expect. 

I know they had some big names on defense opt out, but again we are talking about Belichick. New England’s defense is a lot more plug and play than people realize. They had 20 guys record at least 200 snaps last year.  

Miami really overachieved with the talent they had last year. There’s nothing about their offense that really gets me excited. I like what they have done defensively, but they got a new defensive coordinator in Josh Boyer, who has never called plays in the NFL. With the offseason we had, I think this unit is one that will look much better in Week 10 than it does in Week 1.  Give me the Patriots -6.5!

50* PACKERS/VIKINGS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +2.5) 

I love the Packers and the points. Green Bay will be opening up on the road against division rival Minnesota, who is simply not the same team as they were a year ago. Vikings lost one of their best playmakers in Stefon Diggs, which definitely hurts Kirk Cousins and the offense. 

Minnesota also lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball. The got 3 new starting corners and have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball. That lack of chemistry, especially in the secondary figures to be a recipe for disaster against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. 

I just think given how bad Green Bay lost in the NFC Championship Game last year, people are sleeping on this team coming into 2020. If you are a believer in teams with continuity having an edge in this pandemic stricken offseason, Green Bay is the obvious play in this one. Give me the Packers +2.5! 

40* W KENTUCKY/LOUISVILLE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville -11.5)

Few teams had a bigger positive turnaround from 2018 to 2019 than the Cardinals. Louisville finished 8-5, which they capped off with a 38-28 upset win over Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl.  

No one was expecting that after they finished 2018 a mere 2-10. They went from going without a single conference win to Tying for the 3rd best mark in the ACC at 5-3.  

They did all of this in the first year under head coach Scott Satterfield, who went 31-11 over his final 4 seasons at App St.  

Satterfield did step into a better situation than it may have appeared. A big reason they went 2-10 in 2018 is the players quit playing for previous head coach Bobby Pitrino.  Regardless, he proved that his success with the Mountaineers was no fluke.  

Louisville has a ton of talent back on both sides of the ball, including one of the top QBs in the ACC in Micale Cunningham. I’m really big on teams with a lot of continuity this year. I just think it makes all the difference with the lack of offseason work we had due to covid.  Cardinals also got in 7 spring practices. Might not seem like a big deal, but the ATS results early are definitely favoring teams that got to practice some in the spring. 

 I just don’t think people realize how good this team is. This is not say Western Kentucky won’t be a threat in C-USA this year, I just feel they are outclassed across the board in this matchup.  

They didn’t get any spring practices in and while there’s reason to be optimistic with Maryland grad transfer Tyrrell Pigrom at quarterback, the lack of an offseason will 100% make that transition a lot harder than it would have been in a normal year.  

These two teams played last year on a neutral site and Louisville won that game by 38-21 (led 31-7 and had a 415-288 edge in total yards.  I would be shocked if Louisville doesn’t win this game by at least 14 points. Give me the Cardinals -11.5! 

50* GA TECH/FLORIDA ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Florida St -12)

I got no problem laying less than 2 touchdowns on Florida State against the Yellow Jackets. I absolutely loved the hire of Mike Norvell as their new head coach. Norvell is an offensive genius that did some big things with Memphis. He's all kinds of talent to work with, as FSU returns 7 starters, including junior QB James Blackman. 

As for Georgia Tech, they are still in a major rebuilding phase. Last year under new head coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets parted ways with the option. That's a real tough transition as all the kids the recruited were for the option attack. This is a 3-4 year project before we see some real results. 

With Florida State returning nearly their entire defense and expected to have one of the top defensive lines in the country, I just don't know how the Yellow Jackets are going to score enough to keep this close enough to cover. FSU is simply more talented across the board on both sides of the football. Give me the Seminoles -12! 

40* UAB/MIAMI (FL) NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Miami -13.5) 

I was lucky enough to jump on the Hurricanes at -13.5 before it jumped to -14 and even -14.5. Clearly -13.5 is better than -14, but I still would recommend a play on Miami at the current line. 

Last year couldn't have ended much worse than it did. Miami closed the year on a 3-game losing streak. One of those a 24-30 loss as a 20-point favorite against FIU. They were also shutout in a 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech in their bowl game. 

You don't think this team had a chip on their shoulder in the offseason. I absolutely love the addition of Houston transfer D'Eriq King at quarterback. In 19 starts with Houston he completed 62% of his pass attempts with a 50-10 TD/INT ratio. He also rushed for 1,426 yards (5.6 ypc). He gives this team the spark needed to get this thing turned around in Manny Diaz's second season. 

As for UAB, who played in last year's C-USA title game and are the favorite to win their division and get back there in 2020, I don't think this team is as good as people think.

They won 9 games last year, 8 of those were against the likes of Alabama St, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion, UTEP and North Texas. None of those teams finished better than 4-8. Their only win vs a team with a winning record was LA Tech, but that was one of the games the Bulldogs had star QB J'Mar Smith suspended. Give me Miami -13.5! 

40* ARKANSAS ST/MEMPHIS CFB SHARP STAKE (Memphis -17.5) 

I know Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State. I also know they are up against an Arkansas State team that is one of the better squads in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves also have a couple of solid option at quarter. 

I just don't think it's enough for Arkansas State to make a game of this. The big thing you have to keep in mind with Norvell's departure, is the fact that they hired within, promoting offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield. They also bring back offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. 

That continuity in the offense is huge. So is the return of senior quarterback Brady White. The loss of running back Kenneth Gainwell is a big blow, but they got talent at that position and should continue to get quality production out of the position with how much defenses will have to respect White and the passing game. 

The only thing that figures to slow down Memphis is turnovers. If they protect the ball, they should put up a big number in this game. Arkansas State has just 6 starters back (lost 7 of top 9 tacklers) on a defense that gave up 478 ypg and 34.2 ppg. 

The Tigers also don't figure to be all offense. I loved the hire of former Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre as the new DC. MacIntyre will take over a unit that returns 8 starters from a unit that gave up just 26.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Both top marks in the last 5 years. Give me the Tigers -17.5! 

50* S ALABAMA/S MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (South Alabama +15) 

I will gladly take the points with South Alabama in Thursday's matchup with Southern Miss. I'm just not that high on the Golden Eagles this year. There's a lot of hype around senior QB Jack Abraham, but he lost his top wideout and big deep threat in Quez Watkins (64 catches, 1,178 yards, 18.4 avg, 6 TDs).

Southern Miss also has a different offense now with offensive coordinator Matt Kubik coming over from ULM. Changing an offense can be tough to adjust to in one offseason and this has been anything but a normal offseason. 

The Golden Eagles 7-6 record is also a bit misleading. Their only win over a FBS team that finished with a record better than 3-5 was a 37-2 win over UAB, who I wasn't all that impressed with even though they made it to the C-USA title game (lost 49-6 to UAB). 

As for South Alabama, I like 3rd year head coach Steve Campbell. This team went just 2-10 last season, but played Nebraska tough in their opener (lost by 14 as a 35-point dog) and were a profitable 7-5 ATS on the season. 

The Jaguars have 15 starters back including sophomore quarterback Desmond Trotter, who started the last 4. Note that in the 8 games before Trotter took over SAU averaged just 14.6 ppg and 290 ypg. With him the offense improved to 26.0 ppg and 409 ypg. He's one of 8 starters back on offense. 

They also got 7 guys back on a defense that was better than expected last year. Despite only returning 4 starters, the Jags allowed just 30.7 ppg after giving up 38.8 ppg the previous year. 

I just think we are getting a great price on South Alabama because of their poor record. A couple breaks go their way and I could see them winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +15! 

50* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Titans. It's crazy to me how the public has fallen in love with this Tennessee team. Wins at New England and Baltimore are impressive, but the Chiefs are a whole different animal and this team is coming off a magical win last week where they turned a 24-0 deficit in the 1st quarter into a 28-24 lead at the half and won by 20. 

I get the Titans beat the Chiefs at home earlier this season, but KC had a 29-20 lead in that game in the 4th quarter and were up 8 with less than a minute to play. Chiefs had a 530 to 371 edge in total yards, 28 to 19 edge in first downs and Mahomes threw for 446 yards and 3 scores in his first game back from that dislocated knee (didn't have near the mobility he does right now). 

Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and 2 scores and they should have lost, so even if he has a big day I think KC still wins this going away. The Chiefs defense has really transformed into a top tier unit and keep in mind that while they gave up 31 to the Texans last week, Houston scored a TD on a block punt and were gift-wrapped another on a muffed punt that set them up with 1st and Goal at the 6-yard line. 

I also think Titans have to be running out of gas. They not only have won both of their playoff games on the road, but they also closed out the season at Houston in a must-win to even get into the playoffs. Winning 3 straight games on the road is tough, 4 in a row in 4 weeks is as difficult as it gets. Give me the Chiefs -7! 

40* NFL PACKERS/SEAHAWKS ATS NO-BRAINER (Seahawks +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Seattle covering as 4.5-point dogs against Green Bay. The Packers might be the worst 13-3 team I can remember. Green Bay had a mere +63 scoring margin this year. Every other team that won 12 or more games this season had a scoring margin of +117 or better if you take away the Saints at +117 the next best worst is the Chiefs at +143. 

I know Seattle has their flaws and all, but this team just finds a way to hang around even against teams that are more talented than them and I don't know that Green Bay is the more talented team here. Sure they have Aaron Rodgers, but there's not a lot else that wows you with this roster.

Note the Packers had just 3 wins this year against a playoff team. Two were against the Vikings and the other was against the Chiefs without Mahomes. The only other teams they played all season that made the playoffs were the Eagles and 49ers. They lost by 7 at home to Philadelphia and by 31 at San Francisco. Give me the Seahawks +4.5! 

50* NFL CHIEFS/TEXANS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (Chiefs -9.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs laying it on the Texans and winning this game by at least double-digits. Houston pulled out a miraculous overtime win over the Bills, as they were down 16-0 in the 2nd half and found a way to win. That's just Buffalo's inability to put teams away with their anemic offense. 

I know Houston was able to go on the road and upset the Chiefs 31-24 in the regular-season, but things just kind of unraveled for KC, as they actually jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1st quarter. The Chiefs defense just wasn't very good in that game and at that time they just weren't very good on that side of the ball. This defense is drastically better now than it was. 

The other big thing is the two weeks that the Chiefs get to prepare for this game. Few have been better than Andy Reid when getting two weeks to prepare for a team. He's 18-3 ATS in the regular season off a bye and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. If you remember last year the Colts had a big Wild Card win at Houston (21-7) and then lost 31-13 at KC the next week. 

Simply put the Chiefs have the better head coach (not even close), the better quarterback and a massive home field advantage. Give me Kansas City -9.5! 

50* NFL VIKINGS/49ERS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (49ers -7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers winning by more than a touchdown at home against the Vikings. Hats off to Minnesota for their win at New Orleans last week, but no way do I trust the Vikings to pull off the upset here and I would be shocked if they kept this close. 

I just think the 49ers are hands down the better team and few teams needed that bye week more than San Francisco. The defense will be as healthy as it's been all in a long time with linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt back in the lineup. There's also a good chance Dee Ford will be able to get on the field in some capacity. 

I just think when they are right it's near impossible to pass against them and I just don't think the Vikings run game is strong enough to carry the load. One win in a big game doesn't do it for me when it comes to trusting Kirk Cousins in a spot like this. I think their inability to move the ball is going allow the 49ers offense to wear the Vikings defense down and create the separation needed to cover this number. Give me the 49ers -7! 

40* NCAAF TENN/INDIANA GATOR BOWL NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Volunteers as a slim 2.5-point favorite against the Hoosiers in the Gator Bowl. What a remarkable turnaround by the Vols this season. I don’t think anyone was thinking Tennessee could get to a bowl game after their 1-4 start, which included upset losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, as well as blowout losses to Florida and Georgia.

Sure the schedule got a lot easier, but this team deserves a lot of credit for closing out the season with 5 straight wins. They were also a money-maker for those that backed them, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7. 

As great as it would be for Indiana to get their first bowl win, the Hoosiers 8-4 record is a bit fluky, as they didn’t beat a single FBS team that finished the year with a winning record. They also had 3 wins by 7 or less points.  I get Tennessee’s resume in terms of wins isn’t much better, but they did at least have a couple of wins over bowl teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky, as well as a win over Missouri who would have been in a bowl if not for being banned from postseason play.  

Another thing is the Vols defense is built for this Indiana offense. Hoosiers were 13th in passing compared to 100th in rushing and Tennessee’s defense ranked 17th against the pass this year (28th overall in total defense 29th in scoring).  Give me Tennessee -2.5! 

50* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Baylor +5)

Given what I’ve said about avoiding teams in this spot (losing their last game to miss out on the playoffs), you might think I’m going to stay clear of this one. However, I really like Baylor in this matchup. Georgia’s at the point where it’s national championship or bust. Baylor wants to get to that point, but are not there. They are still in the midst of a massive turnaround under head coach Matt Rhule. I think they show up here. 

Keep in mind Baylor hasn’t played in a bowl of this magnitude since they faced off against Michigan State in the 2014 Cotton Bowl.  Also, we saw Georgia fail to play well in this spot a year ago, losing by 7 as a 12-point favorite to Texas.  This line has also moved quite a bit in favor of Baylor, as it opened Georgia -7.5.

Bulldogs got a lot of guys sitting out either with injuries or to prepare to the draft. They have been decimated at wide receiver all year and that’s still a major problem. They are also going to be down 3 offensive linemen. As good as Jake Fromm is, they don’t have the weapons around him to be successful and even when they played bad teams they struggled to score. I think Baylor holds them in check and likely wins outright.  Give me the Bears +5! 

40* NCAAF ROSE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Oregon +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ducks as a 3-point dog against the Badgers. As much as the numbers suggest these two teams are even, I think Oregon is the more talented team and they just might have been the 4th best team in the country. I loved how they put that crushing loss to ASU behind them and went out and routed Utah in the Pac-12 title game. I think the Ducks are going to be looking to send a message. 

 As for Wisconsin, they still might be wondering what happened in that Big Ten title game to Ohio State, where let a 21-7 halftime lead turn into a 21-34 loss.  Also the Badgers’ offense really relies a lot on running back Johanthan Taylor and rightfully so, but I think he struggles to have a big impact in this game. Oregon was 12th in the country against the run. I see this coming down to QB play and Herbert is light years better than Wisconsin’s Jack Coan. give me Oregon +3! 

50* NCAAF ALAMO BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas +7.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas covering as a 7.5-point dog against Utah. This is one of those situational spots that I look for right away when I start handicapping bowl games and that’s teams who lost in their final game to basically eliminate themselves from the playoffs. As much respect as I have for Kyle Whittingham and I know his bowl record is great, this an awful spot for the Utes.  

For Texas it’s a second straight year getting a team in this spot. Last year they faced Georgia after the Bulldogs blew their shot at the playoffs with a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. Longhorns went on to win that game 28-21 as a 12-point underdog. They also improved to 2-0 under Tom Herman in bowls, as they crushed Missouri 33-16 as a 3-point dog in 2017. Herman also won his own bowl while at Houston and that too was a dog, as the Cougars defeated FSU 38-24 as a 7-point dog.  

I’m simply not going to get too much into the numbers, because I just don’t think they matter. It’s just near impossible for a team like Utah, who lost in the Pac-12 title game to miss out on the playoffs, to find any kind of motivation in a game like this.  Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

50* NCAAF LIBERTY BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Kansas State +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas State getting points against the Midshipmen. I just don't think Navy is as good as people think. Midshipmen beat up on a lot of bad teams and when they took a step up in competition they often weren't up to the task, especially on defense. When Navy wasn't playing the likes of ECU, Holy Cross, Tulsa, USF, UConn and Army they gave up 37 ppg. 

Kansas State is a team to watch out for under head coach Chris Klieman. In his first year on the job he led the team to a win over Oklahoma and Mississippi State while also only losing by 3 to Texas. I just think this blue collar team will be locked in and have taken bowl practices 100%. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Navy's option, but I think they can get enough stops to where their offense can create the separation needed to win here going away. Give me the Wildcats +3! 

40* NCAAF SUN BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Florida State +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Seminoles cashing in as a 4.5-point dog in the Sun Bowl against Arizona State. I just don't get why the Sun Devils are laying this big of a number here. It's not like Arizona State is at full strength, as star running back Eno Benjamin and top wide out Brandon Aiyuk are both sitting out this game to prepare for the draft. Sun Devils also had a number of their offensive coaches get canned before the bowl, so there's just no chemistry for this offense going into this game. 

Florida State will be without stud running back Cam Akers, but I just feel like too much is being made of that. While he's a special player, they are poised to still have plenty of success in this one, as they had the nations 33rd ranked pass offense and will be up against a ASU defense that ranked 114th against the pass. Give me Florida State +4.5! 

50* NCAAF ORANGE BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gators laying it on Virginia. It's a joke that the committee even put the Cavaliers in a New Year's Bowl. They won 9 games, but almost all of those were against a watered-down ACC. They lost by 15 to Notre Dame and were absolutely destroyed by Clemson in the ACC title game. 

Despite going 10-2, I just think people don't realize how good this Florida team is. Everyone is raving about LSU and they had a 28-21 lead in the 2nd half against LSU. Their only other loss was a mere 7-point defeat to Georgia, where they played about as bad as they could. 

Virginia's defense is not that good and they could be in real trouble here. Cavaliers are much better at stopping the run than the pass. That's not going to help them against the Gators, as Florida brings in the nations 17th ranked passing attack. 

Virginia is also not built to play from behind which they surely will in this game, as the Cavaliers finished a mere 112th in passing. They were a respectable 37th in rushing, but I don't see them having much success in that department either. Give me the Gators -14! 

40* NCAAF REDBOX BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (California -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown against the Fighting Illini. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and have a hard time understanding why a mediocre Cal team is laying this many points with how much they struggle to score. 

What people fail to realize with the Golden Bears is they were a different team when quarterback Chase Garbers was healthy. They were 6-0 in games he started and finished and 1-5 when he either left with an injury or didn't play. The offense is still limited with him, but Illinois is a team they can have success against, especially considering the Illini ranked a mere 110th vs the run. 

As for the Illinois offense, it's hard to see them doing a lot against this stingy Cal defense, especially when you factor in that the Illini were 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 319.7 ypg. They were 110th in passing and 93rd in rushing and will be facing a Cal defense that finished 26th against the run. Give me the Golden Bears -6! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New York covering as a 4.5-point dog against the Eagles. Most will look to back Philadelphia in this one, as they are the team with everything to play for. I just don't trust the Eagles at all. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win over Dallas, where they put everything they had into that game. They are also decimated on offense with their top 3 receivers and tight end Zach Ertz all out with injuries. Giants have been playing well down the stretch and I look for Daniel Jones to have a big day here against a shaky Eagles secondary that was very fortunate against Dallas (Prescott missed a lot of wide open guys and the receivers dropped several passes). Give me the Giants +4.5! 

50* NFC WEST PLAY OF THE YEAR (Cardinals +7.5) 

I love the value here with the Cardinals at +7.5 and would be taking them at anything over a field goal. Rams are not going to be the least bit interested in playing this game after last week crushing loss to the 49ers that ended any hopes they had of sneaking into the playoffs. Hard for a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to get up for a meaningless Week 17 game. Cardinals on the other hand have shown they want to finish the season strong and even if Murray can't go I like them to win this game outright. Give me Arizona +7.5!

40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +3)

I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati covering as a 3-point home dog against the Browns. Cincinnati has the worst record in the league and locked up the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. While there's a ton of excitement with the likelihood of landing Burrow with that pick, I expect Cincinnati to show up in a big way in the finale, as they all know this could be Andy Dalton's last start with the franchise. Bengals have also been playing well down the stretch. As for Cleveland, they were officially knocked out of the playoff race with last week's gut-wrenching loss at home to the Ravens and I just don't see them showing up for a meaningless game. In my opinion the wrong team is favored. Give me the Bengals +3! 

40* NCAAF CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (ISU +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones as a 3.5-point dog against the Irish in the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame ranked No. 15 and 10-2 compared to ISU at just 7-5. 

 I think this line is begging for the public to take the Irish and from what I’m seeing that’s the case with more than 70% of the bets on ND.  I just don’t know that I’m quite a believer in this Irish team. Their best wins were against Va Tech, USC, Virginia and Navy. They trailed Virginia at the half, beat USC by 3 and Va Tech by 2. How motivated are the Irish playing in the Camping World Bowl after playing in the CFP last year and expecting to get back to it this year?

Iowa State definitely a lot better than their record. They were a 2-point conversion away from beating Oklahoma on the road and lost in the final seconds at Baylor, two teams who played for Big 12 title.  Notre Dame averaged 177 rushing yards and 253 passing yards, but was against teams that allowed 155 on the ground and 238 via the pass. Two good defenses ND faced in Georgia and Michigan they did next to nothing. Scored 17 points 321 yards against Georgia and 14 points 180 yards vs Michigan. Both games failed to rush for 50 yards. ISU 33rd vs the run giving up 133.8 ypg. only gave up 3.9 yards/carry.  

Cyclones are 15-3 ATS under Campbell vs teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and 20-7 ATS as a dog, 6-0 ATS with 2 or more weeks to prepare. Give me Iowa State +3.5! 

50* NCAAF HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Iowa -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Trojans. Very contrasting styles with USC being up tempo want to outscore teams, Iowa great defensive team want to grind out victories. My money is on the Iowa defense winning out. 

USC's big strength is their talent at WR. Want to attack deep, Iowa does a great job of keeping teams in front of them not giving up big play.  Trojans have no running game. Will be one dimensional.  

Trojans QB Slovis has been good, but had two games with 3 picks. He’s also not been protected well. Sacked 18 times last 7 games he’s played.  Iowa’s offense has held them back this year, but they were better down the stretch and I think there’s plenty of holes in this USC defense that was 83rd in total defense and ranked 76th against the run and 99th vs pass. Iowa favorite of -6 or less 13 times since 2015 won and covered all 13. Give me the Hawkeyes -2! 

40* NCAAF TEXAS BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -6.5) 

Jimbo Fisher 6-2 bowls (1-0 at Texas A&M) - Last year absolutely trounced NC State 52-13 as a similar priced 7-point favorite. Outgained Wolfpack 541 to 273. Aggies only went 7-5, but all 5 losses were against teams who at the time were ranked in the Top 10. Three different times they played the No. 1 team in the country (Clemson, Alabama and LSU).  While some of those were pretty lopsided, you could definitely argue this is the best 7-win team in the country.  

Mike Gundy 9-4 bowls, won 3 straight, last year beat Missouri 38-33 as a 8-point dog. However, Cowboys best win this season was at ISU in a game they probably shouldn’t have won, Outgained by 66 yards and had just 14 first downs to Cyclones 30. Only 3 scores came on TDs of 50 yards or more, also had a defensive score. OK State potentially without 2 best players in WR Tylan Wallace and QB Spencer Sanders. Do have an elite back in Chuba Hubbard, but I just wonder if he will be able to have success against a really good Aggies defense that was 29th against the run. Allowed just 4 yards/carry almost a full yard under opponents average.  Give me Texas A&M -6.5! 

40* NCAAF MILITARY BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels making easy work of Temple. I just don't get the love for this Owls team. They went just 5-3 in the AAC and if not for a horrible start by Memphis in their upset win over the Tigers, they would have finished 4-4 and failed to beat any of the top teams. The defense for Temple was great against all those bad offenses they faced, but against the better offenses they struggled and this UNC offense is the real deal. 

Mack Brown has really changed things around with the Tar Heels in year one and he's got a very respectable 13-8 record in bowl games. No doubt UNC will be motivated in their first bowl game with him. As for Temple head coach Rod Carey, his teams have gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in bowl games with the average loss by 25 ppg. Clearly he doesn't know how to get his team ready for postseason play and more than anything the Owls are outmatched in this one. Give me North Carolina -4.5! 

40* NCAAF INDEPENDENCE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Louisiana Tech +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6.5-point spread against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I actually think Louisiana Tech is going to win this game outright. The Hurricanes closed out the regular-season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke, two teams they should have beat no problem. 

I just don't see them flipping the switch here against the Bulldogs. Miami's got several players skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft. That includes 3 of their top guys in the front even, with senior linebacker Michael Pinckney and defensive ends Trevon Hill and Jonathan Garvin. 

Louisiana Tech will have no problem getting up and taking advantage of an uninterested Miami team. Bulldogs will have plenty of support with this feeling a lot like a home game with it being played in Shreveport. Not to mention the chance to beat a storied program like the Hurricanes. Give me Louisiana Tech +6.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -4.5)

I'll take my chances here with Minnesota covering the 4.5-point spread at home against the Packers. Green Bay might have Aaron Rodgers and one of the best records in the NFC, but I just don't think they are anywhere close to as good as people think. The books definitely seem to agree with this line being 4.5 with Minnesota likely down their top two packs. 

Green Bay really isn't good on either side of the ball. Packers are 22nd in total offense at 336.6 ypg and rank in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Green Bay's defense comes in having held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or fewer, but that's come against the Giants/ Redskins and Bears. Packers are 23rd against the pass and 25th against the run. 

Vikings are 32-15 ATS at home under Zimmer and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7 or less. Give me Minnesota -4.5! 

40* UCF/MARSHALL GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (UCF -15) 

I'll take my chances here with UCF now that this line has dropped down to 15. I just don't get why the public is all over Marshall in this game. The Knights are hands down the better team. UCF went 9-3, but were dangerously close to another 12-0 regular season, as those 3 losses came by 7-points or less. 

While not head-to-head, I do think it's worth noting that UCF beat the best team in C-USA, FAU, by a score of 48-14 and led 42-6 in the 4th quarter. Marshall lost to AAC runner-up Cincinnati by a final score of 52-14. The Knights also should benefit from this game being played so close to home, as it's in St. Petersburg. Give me UCF -15! 

50* CHIEFS/BEARS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -6) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Bears. Kansas City needs to win here to keep their hopes of getting a first round bye alive and I also feel like the Chiefs want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs.

You also got KC head coach Andy Reid facing off against former assistant Matt Nagy and I think not only that gives the Chiefs an edge, but also adds a little more incentive. The Bears are also sitting at 7-7 and out of the playoff race, so it wouldn't come as a shocker for them to not play up to their potential. 

More than anything, I just don't see Chicago being able to keep pace offensively with Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. Not to mention the Chiefs defense has made a remarkable turnaround not only from last year but from the first month of the season. KC's stop unit has been one of the best in the league over the last 4 weeks and should have no problem keeping Trubisky and the Bears in check. Give me the Chiefs -6! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Lions cashing in a cover as a touchdown dog against the Broncos. I just think Denver has no business laying this kind of a number against any team, especially after that demoralizing performance last week at Kansas City. One that caused Von Miller to voice his frustrations with the direction of the team. 

Detroit's has been on a free fall with 7 straight losses and haven't exactly been competitive in their last two, which is why I think we are getting such great value. No team wants to end the year on a massive losing streak and with a not so winnable game next week against the Packers, I expect the Lions to give it all they got in this one. 

A really good sign that Detroit is still trying to win is the fact that running back Kerryon Johnson is willing to come back from injury this late in the season. Johnson was a difference maker win healthy and the Broncos run defense has not been good of late. I think he has a big game here and I actually like the Lions to win outright. Give me Detroit +7! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals PK) 

I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati going on the road and beating the Dolphins in Sunday's matchup of two AFC bottom feeders. Since going back to Andy Dalton at quarterback the Bengals have been a much more competitive team. They do come in off a lopsided 34-13 loss at New England, but they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. Cincinnati actually outgained the Patriots 315 to 291. 

Joe Mixon was an absolute beast against New England rushing for 136 yards on 25 carries and that's now two straight monster games for him, as he had 146 yards on 23 attempts the week before against the Browns. Mixon should continue to roll here as the Dolphins come in with the league's 31st ranked run defense, giving up 140.9 ypg. 

I also don't love the spot here for Miami. Winning actually hurts the Dolphins more than it helps them, as they are in a position to get the No. 2 pick in the NFL draft if they were to lose out. I just think they have a hard time getting up for this game. If there's a game Miami will get up for it's next week's road game at New England. Give me the Bengals -110! 

40* NFL SHARP MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Colts -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Colts bouncing back from that ugly loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football and snapping their 4-game losing streak with a blowout win at home against the reeling Panthers. 

Carolina has already fired head coach Ron Rivera and while most teams respond to their head coach getting fired with a big effort, the Panthers have arguably gotten worse. Panthers have completely thrown in the towel on this season with them going to Will Grier at QB and with the way their defense is playing it's a recipe for disaster. Carolina last 5 games have saw them give up 29 to Falcons, 34 to the Saints, 29 to the Redskins, 40 to the Falcons and 30 to the Seahawks. 

Brissett really needs a good game here to solidify his spot as Indy's starting QB and I expect a big effort from the Colts defense after that awful showing against New Orleans. Give me the Colts -6.5! 

50* NCAAF PRE XMAS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (SMU -3) 

I get that this is technically a home game for FAU, but I just don’t think that’s as big of an advantage as people make it out to be. Not to mention the Owls don’t have the biggest following to start with. I also don’t think there’s near as much hype around this team now that Lane Kiffin has left the program to be the new head coach at Ole Miss.  

Not only do I think Kiffin leaving is a big psychological blow to the Owls, but I think his departure really hurts them from an X and O standpoint. Kiffin is really good at game planning for opponents and he also was the guy calling the plays. I really think the FAU offense is going to be out of sync in this game and that’s a big time problem, because their only hope of beating SMU is to outscore them.  

Let’s not also look over the fact that FAU really didn’t beat anyone this season of note. Their best wins are against the likes of WKU, Southern Miss and UAB. In their two big step-up games in non-conference they got annihilated at Ohio State and lost 48-14 at home to UCF.  

As for the Mustangs, they went 10-2 with their only two losses coming by 6-points at Memphis and by 7-points at Navy. Two games they could have easily won, as they outgained Memphis and led Navy 21-10 at the half. I mentioned how FAU got rolled by a team out of the American in UCF, SMU destroyed North Texas out of C-USA 49-27.  

I really think SMU is going to put up 40+ in this game. A mark they hit 8 different times during the regular season. I just don’t think the Owls can come anywhere close to that without Kiffin’s guidance. Give me the Mustangs -3!

40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +10) 

I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a double-digit home dog. It’s never easy betting against the Patriots,especially coming off a loss, but I just think there’s too much value here with Cincinnati in this one.

The Bengals could have easily thrown in the towel on this season and just played for the No. 1 pick in the draft. That clearly wasn’t on the agenda, as they decided to go back to veteran quarterback Andy Dalton after benching him in favor of Ryan Finley. Bengals won Dalton’s first game back against the Jets two weeks ago and should have won last week at Cleveland, as they were the better team in that matchup.

Dalton gives this Bengals offense life and defensively this team has been better than you would expect for a team that has a 1-12 record. Cincinnati has only given up more than 27 points twice all season and that was against the 49ers and Ravens.

With the way the Patriots offense is struggling to move the football right now, I think the Bengals’ defense is going to play well in this one. Not to mention there’s a pretty decent chance Cincinnati takes this one personal with the news of New England filming then. This went from just another game to a matchup where I could see the Bengals treating it like their Super Bowl.

As crazy as it might sound, I think there’s an outside shot the Bengals not only cover but win this game outright. Give me Cincinnati +10.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Bears +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the 4.5-point spread at Green Bay. The Bears have finally came alive on offense and that's a scary thing for any team going up against this them, as they are still playing at an elite level defensively. 

Green Bay's offense has struggled quite a bit here of late. They are only averaging 18.8 ppg in their last 5 and that's with them scoring 31 against the Giants. Last week they put up 14 points in the 1st quarter against the Redskins and then managed just 6 the rest of the way.

It just feels like any time this team goes up against a top tier defense they really struggle to produce. They are only averaging 18.5 ppg in their last 4 games against the Bears and only managed 10 points on 213 total yards in the first meeting against Chicago this season. I think the Bears not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me Chicago +4.5! 

50* ARMY/NAVY SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Army +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with Army as a double-digit dog. I just think there’s a ton of value here with the Black Knights in this one.

Forget about how Army didn’t meet expectations this year. A win here and nobody will care about what they weren’t able to accomplish this season. They are going to bring it on Saturday and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they pulled off the upset and won their 4th straight in the series.

The big thing to keep in mind with Army’s 5-7 record is they were on the wrong end of a lot of close games. In fact, their only loss by more than 9 points all season was their regular-season finale at Hawaii which saw the Rainbow Warriors return a pick 100 yards for a score. Instead of likely losing 38-45, they fell 31-52.

The numbers also suggest these two are a lot closer in terms of talent than the line would suggest. Both are elite rushing teams. Navy was No. 1 in the country in rushing and Army was No. 2. Both are also strong defensively. Midshipmen finished 33rd in total defense (324.5 ypg) and the Black Knights were 29th (337.8 ypg).

Something else to keep in mind is that while Navy went 7-1 in AAC play, they were very fortunate not having to play either UCF or Cincinnati out of the East. I just don’t think the Midshipmen are quite as good as people think. Give me Army +10.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles -9)

I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia winning by double-digits at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. I know the Eagles are a big favorite here, but after last week's loss to the Dolphins dropped them to 5-7, Philadelphia's backs are firmly against the wall and it just seems like whenever the Eagles are in this spot they deliver in a big way. I think a lot of people are expecting Eli Manning to come out and play well after not suiting up the last 11 weeks and I just don't think that's going to be the case. I'm in the belief the Eagles didn't give the Dolphins the respect they deserved and that defense will respond in a big way. Note that in the previous 4 games Philadelphia had allowed 17 or fewer points and in their last home game held Russell Wilson to 174 passing yards on 13 of 25 attempts. The other big thing here is the Giants defense. New York is giving up 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg away from home this season. Give me the Eagles -9! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Saints -2) 

I'lll take my chances with New Orleans laying less than a field goal at home against the 49ers. I not only think this is a great price to back the Saints at home, but I also think the spot heavily favors New Orleans.

The 49ers are a great team and I just feel like whenever an elite team suffers a loss the public’s first thought is they can’t lose two in a row. Sometimes that’s a valid theory, but I don’t think it applies here. It’s hard enough playing back-to-back road games in the NFL. The 49ers must try and do so after playing in the biggest game of the week and in one of the toughest places in the NFL to get a win in a game of this magnitude.

Not only that, but New Orleans gets the luxury of having an extra 3 days to prepare for this game because they were one of the six teams to take the field on Thanksgiving Day. That extra rest is huge, especially this time of the year.

A lot of attention has been given to the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but I think given the spot and just how talented Drew Brees is, especially with his ability to get rid of the ball quickly, this is one of those games where their defense could struggle. Since Sean Payton took over as head coach the Saints are 9-2 ATS vs teams who allow 17 or fewer points/game.

When people talk about New Orleans it’s usually centered around Brees and the offense, but they got a top notch defense this year. They 10th in the NFL, giving up just 323.5 ypg. The big stat however is that they own the league’s No. 1 ranked run defense. I think we have seen some limitations to Jimmy G and the 49ers passing game here of late and I just think they are going to have a hard time moving the ball with how much they figure to struggle to run the ball.

It’s also worth pointing out that when New Orleans has been matched up against the leagues best, they have been an absolute money maker. Saints are 9-1 ATS under Payton in games against an elite team that is outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Not only have they covered just about every game, they are winning by an average of 10 ppg. Give me New Orleans -2!

40* NFL VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins +14) 

I'll take my chances here with Washington getting two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday. The Redskins have something going right now and I just think the line here is a reflection of their overall body of work and now how they are playing. I know Haskins is a major work in progress, but they have got the running game going and this Green Bay defense is susceptible to big plays. The Packers ended up winning by 18 last week at the Giants, but a lot of that was Rodgers ability to pick apart a bad New York secondary. Redskins secondary ranks in the top half of the league in yards allowed and Green Bay doesn't have the best running game to take advantage of their weakness defensively. Give me the Redskins +14! 

40* NFL SHARP MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bengals getting 7.5 on the road against the Browns. Cincinnati showed a lot of heart and fight getting their first win of the season last week against the Jets and I think we are going to see this team continue to play hard over the final month of the regular-season. As for the Browns, their playoff hopes just took a massive blow in their loss to the Steelers and I just don't understand how this team can be laying a touchdown against any team in the league right now. Andy Dalton is a massive upgrade at QB for Cincinnati over Ryan Finley and they are expected to get back wide out John Ross. I not only think there's a good chance the  Bengals cover, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me Cincinnati +7.5! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bucs -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Tampa Bay laying just a field goal at home against the Colts. The Bucs are going down with a fight and this team is off two really impressive wins. They won at Atlanta 35-22 stopping a red-hot Falcons team in their tracks and last week laid it on the Jaguars 28-11. As for the Colts, they are headed in the opposite direction. Indy has lost 4 of 5 and just gave the game away last week to the Titans. I just think the offensive injuries for the Colts are getting too much for them to overcome and I really don't like the matchup here for Indy with how good the Bucs are at defending the run. Give me Tampa Bay -3! 

50* LIONS/VIKINGS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Lions +13) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Lions catching double-digits against division rival Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions are just 3-8-1 and have lost 5 straight, but the talent is there. Of their 8 losses this season, only one has come by more than 8 points and their largest deficit is by just 12. They have had the lead in so many of their games this year and just haven't been able to finish. I just don't see this team laying down against a division opponent and I don't love this spot for Minnesota coming off that crazy loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Not only will the Vikings be playing on short rest, the Lions will have had 3 extra days of prep time after playing on Thursday last week. Give me Detroit +13! 

50* CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Georgia +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with Georgia getting the touchdown and the hook in the SEC title game. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Georgia in this matchup, as they are more than capable of winning this game outright.

All the talk is going to be centered around LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the LSU offense and how Georgia won’t be able to keep pace. It’s hard to blame the public for their fascination with Burrow. He’s been exceptional and is a lock to win the Heisman Trophy.

My focus is on the other side of the ball, where I feel Georgia is the superior team. The Bulldogs are 2nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 10.4 ppg and are 4th in total defense, giving up just 257.0 ypg. They are No.2 in the country against the run (71.1 ppg) and No. 15 against the pass (186.0 ypg). Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a single game this season and if they can keep that streak alive I think they win here outright.

I also like the fact that the Bulldogs have been in this spot before under Kirby Smart, as they have played in the SEC title game each of the last two years and were in the championship games just two seasons ago. I also think you can’t overlook the fact that this game means so much more to Georgia. The Bulldogs need to win to get into the playoffs, while LSU knows in the back of their minds that they are in even with a loss. Give me Georgia +7.5.

40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY ATS SLAUGHTER (Cincinnati +10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a double-digit dog against the Tigers. The biggest thing you got to take into account with last week’s matchup between these two teams is that game meant everything to Memphis and next to nothing for Cincinnati. The Tigers had to win that game to clinch the AAC West, while the Bearcats already had their spot in the title game locked up.

Sure, Cincinnati put up a fight and wound up covering the spread, but there’s no doubt in my mind they held some things back that they are going to use in this game. They also used that game to give red-shirt freshman Ben Bryant his first start. Bryant did throw two picks in his debut, but he also had his moments. Bryant completed 63% (20-32) of his attempts for 229 yards and threw a 4-yard TD pass. He also rushed for a 12-yard score.

They gave Bryant the start to let starter Desmond Ridder rest his ailing shoulder, but it was such an encouraging performance that they are going with him again. Keep in mind that Ridder had not played well in the Bearcats previous two games, as he was just 18 of 43 (42%) for 140 yards in games against Temple and USF. Ridder had also not thrown for more than 172 yards in 5 straight games.

Giving up 34 points and 432 yards might not look all that great, but that was the Tigers lowest offensive output in total yards in their last 8 games. Memphis also benefited from running the opening kick by 94 yards. I expect Fickell to have an even better defensive gameplan in the rematch and I think we see a little more urgency out of the Bearcats defenders. Give me Cincinnati +10!

50* OREGON/UTAH PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +7) 

I just think we are getting too much value here with the Ducks getting a touchdown. Utah is simply overvalued because they have not only covered 8 straight games, but dominated in the process.

I also feel like Oregon’s lackluster performance against Oregon State has people hesitant to take them. That was 100% to be expected. In fact, the Beavers were my favorite play during Thanksgiving Week, simply because I knew the Ducks would struggle to play well off that loss to Arizona State.

I think the biggest thing here to Oregon putting that loss to the Sun Devils behind them is what’s at stake for Utah in this game. I think the Ducks can find all the motivation they need here playing spoiler and ruining the Utes hopes of making the playoffs. It’s also not the worst consolation winning here and getting to play in the Rose Bowl.

I think a lot of people look at Utah as being the far superior team, but I just don’t buy it. These two both went 7-1 against their 8 common opponents and the offensive numbers were almost identical in these games. Oregon averaged 34.5 ppg and 449 ypg, while Utah averaged 35.3 ppg and 448.6 ypg.

While the Utes did post slightly better defensive numbers in those games, I like how the Ducks matchup with the Utes offense. Utah has a pretty balanced offense, but the running game is what makes it all click. Oregon has a top tier run defense, as they are only giving up 106 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry against the run. Utah is also great at stopping the run, but the Ducks have an elite QB in Justin Herbert who can keep them on track. Give me Oregon +7!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Dallas as a small road favorite. For me it comes down to quarterback play and who I trust more to make the big plays when needed. It’s not really much of a debate in my eyes. Dak Prescott is far from elite, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Mitch Trubisky.

Not only do the Bears have a liability at quarterback in Trubisky, but they don’t have any real weapons at receiver or tight end and the running game has been non-existent. Chicago has rushed for more than 90 yards just twice all season and only once in their last 10 games. When you can’t effectively run the ball on first down, you end up with a lot of 3rd and long situations and Trubisky isn’t a guy that convert those on a consistent basis.

I’m also not buying the thought that the Bears have turned their season around with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Especially when you take into consideration that two of those were against the Lions and the other was against the Giants and they won all 3 by 7 or less.

Sure the Cowboys were embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Buffalo, but that’s a really good Bills team. They also hurt themselves in that defeat, as they only managed 15 points despite putting up over 425 yards of total offense. Give me Dallas -3!