10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5

I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think. 

Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game. 

The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243. 

As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation. 

Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402! 

This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24. 

Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season. 

Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5! 

9* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: W Virginia Mountaineers -1

I'm taking West Virginia to cover as a slim 1 point road favorite against Virginia Tech. Even though the Mountaineers come into this game off a 65-7 blowout win over Towson, I think there's value stemming from the fact that they are 1-2 with a 42-55 loss at home to Kansas as a 14-point favorite. 

A couple of years ago losing at home to Kansas would be unacceptable, but this year's Jayhawks team is built different. They just went on the road and beat Houston last week 48-30 as more than a TD dog. It's worth noting that West Virginia did lead 21-3 and had a 511 to 419 edge in total yards in the loss to the Jayhawks. 

There other loss is a 31-38 setback on the road against a pretty good Pitt team. A game they led by 7 in the 4th quarter and eventually lost on a 56-yard interception return for a score. Mountaineers also outgained the Panthers 404-384. 

Those are two pretty talent offensive teams. Kansas has a Top 10 ranked rushing attack and Pitt had one of the top QBs in the country in Slovis. 

Virginia Tech doesn't do really do anything well offensively. In their two games so far against FBS opponents they have managed just 333 total yards against Old Dominion and 284 against Boston College. 

I'm also sure there's going to be talk about the great defensive numbers that the Hokies have thru 3 games. Something a lot of people will quickly buy into because they will just attribute it to first year head coach Brent Pry who came over after being the DC at Penn State. 

I'm not saying the defense isn't improved. I just don't think it's as good as people think. Boston College only had 312 total yards at home against Rutgers and Old Dominion had just 290 in a loss to ECU and 324 against Virginia. 

Adding on to the Old Dominion games that they have played since playing Virginia Tech. I mentioned the Hokies had just 333 total yards vs them. The Monarchs gave up 531 yards to East Carolina and 513 to Virginia. 

Look for JT Daniels and that Mountaineers offense to make some plays and I just don't see the Hokies offense being able to keep pace. This also feels like it's a season-saving type game for West Virginia. With Texas and Baylor on the schedule next, they need this win, which is why I'm not concerned about them looking ahead to that game with the Longhorns. Give me West Virginia -1! 

9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I'm going to take the Raiders as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday. I know you don't want to overreact to what you saw in Week 1, but I can't help myself here laying less than a touchdown with the Raiders. 

The biggest thing for me is I came into this season way down on the Cardinals, especially early in the year with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension. Keep in mind they also lost Christian Kirk in free agency, who led them last year in receiving with 77 catches for 982 yards and 5 scores. One of the guys they were hoping to fill the void was Rondale Moore and he's doubtful. Tight end Zach Ertz is also questionable with a calf injury. 

That's just the offense. The defense lost one of their stud pass rushers in Chandler Jones and failed to address their biggest need up front on the defensive line. J.J. Watt didn't play in the opener and while he could be back isn't enough to sure up that side of the ball. 

I just have a hard time seeing this team as it's currently constructed being able to go on the road and compete with a Raiders team that is much better than they showed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Everyone acts like Las Vegas was dominated in their 19-24 loss to LA, but I saw it differently. I thought it was actually impressive that the Raiders had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter given Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. 

The offensive line clearly is a weakness for Las Vegas and was exposed against maybe the pass rushing duo in the NFL in the Chargers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Arizona just doesn't have the talent in their front 7 to expose the Raiders weakness on the o-line and in turn I look for Carr and the Raiders offense to have a similar type of showing as we saw last week with Mahomes and Chiefs doing whatever they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take my chances with the Raiders defense doing enough for Las Vegas to get at least 6 points of separation when this is all said and done. Give me the Raiders -5.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense. 

A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run. 

As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself. 

Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys. 

I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5! 

8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets +7

I'll take my chances with the Jets cashing in as a 7-point road dog against the Browns in Week 2. Even though we lost with the Panthers in Week 1 against Cleveland, I still think this Browns team is getting a little too much love with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback. 

The Panthers did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot for the majority of that game. Even after trailing by 14 early and by double-digits going into the 4th, Carolina had a 24-23 lead with 1:13 left to play. If not for Cade York's 58-yard game winning field goal, I think the perception would be a lot different on Cleveland going into Week 2. 

Even with rushing for 217 yards and 5.6 yards/carry, Cleveland finished the game averaging just 4.8 yards/play. That really speaks to how much the offense is playing behind the 8-ball with Brissett. 

As for the Jets, I didn't feel they played as poorly as it appeared in Week 1. The Jets lost 24-9 to Baltimore, but they actually outgained the Ravens 380 to 274. Joe Flacco wasn't great, but did manage to thro for 309 yards. 

No one is giving the Jets defense the love it deserves after holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check. NY was very stingy versus the run, giving up just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Jackson, only had 17 rushing yards on 6 attempts. 

That right there is probably the biggest reason I like New York in this game. I think the Browns are extremely one-dimensional with their run game until Watson gets back from suspension. If the Jets run defense can keep the Browns from racking up 1st downs on the ground, they not only are going to keep this within 7 but will be right there with a chance to win outright. Give me the Jets +7! 

9* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Michigan State Spartans +3.5

I'll take my chances with No. 11 Michigan State catching 3.5 points on the road against Washington. Usually I look to go the other way when there's a ranked team catching points against an unranked opponent, but I think we are seeing Washington get a little too much respect after their 2-0 start. 

No one saw the Huskies going 4-8 last year. People were not only picking them to win the Pac-12, but make the 4-team playoff before the season started. It just feels like everyone wants this team to be good and I think people are jumping back on the bandwagon after watching them dominate their first two opponents. They beat Kent State 45-20 as a 24-point favorite and rolled Portland State 52-6 as a 30-point favorite. 

Not sure what beating either of those teams tells you about this team. To me there's still a lot this Cougars team has to do to prove they are for real.

Michigan State has also started 2-0 and yet it doesn't feel like anyone is taking this team all tha seriously despite their high ranking. A lot of that has to do with no one seeing a path for them to even win their own division in the Big Ten. It's all Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. 

I really like the Spartans head coach Mel Tucker and the direction he has this team headed. There were some concerns with the offense coming into this season after losing running back Kenneth Walker. So far he hasn't been missed. Redshirt freshman Jalen Berger has 227 yards on 33 attempts and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard has 135 on 25 carries. They got back starting QB Payton Thorne and a future NFL WR in Jayden Reed. 

The big problem last year was the Michigan State secondary and I'm sure those struggles against the pass are going to convince some to lay it with Washington given how good Indiana transfer Michael Penix has looked to start the year. However, the Spartans returned 9 starters on defense and are much improved in the secondary. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm going into this expecting the Spartans to win. Give me Michigan State +3.5! 

10* NCAAF - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: LSU Tigers +2.5

I will gladly take the 2.5-points with LSU at home against Mississippi State on Saturday. I think we got a good buy-low spot on the Tigers, who lost a lot of the hype around them in their Week 1 loss to Florida State. I also think it's a decent sell-high spot with Mississippi State, who has started 2-0 with two really easy covers, beating Memphis 49-23 at home as a 17-point favorite and going on the road and beating Arizona 39-17 as a 12.5-point favorite. 

I was on the Wildcats in that game last week and while I still feel like Arizona is going to be a good bet going forward, I think I got a little ahead of myself in that one. Wildcats still have a ways to go to compete with a talented SEC team like Mississippi State, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I think it's going to be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bulldogs offense in this one. LSU's defense didn't play great in the loss to FSU, but well enough to win. I expect them to be flying around the field at home in this one.

I also think people are sleeping a little on this LSU offense. They are so much better at the QB position than they have been the last two years with ASU transfer Jayden Daniels. Thru two games, he's completed 78% of his attempts with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 132 yards (6.9 yards/carry). 

I don't know if it's because LSU has been down some of late, but winning at Tiger Stadium in a prime time game like we have here (6 pm EST kickoff) is not easy. Let's also not forget that as bad as LSU was last year, they went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 28-25. Brian Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home dog in his 18+ years as a head coach (LSU was 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog last year). Give me the Tigers +2.5!

9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +9

I will take my chances with Kansas as a 9-point road dog at Houston. Those that have followed this Jayhawks team closely would tell you that 2nd year head coach Lance Leipold is quietly taking Kansas from a doormat in the Big 12 to a team that can compete on the big stage against the top teams. 

We saw it unfold a little bit at the end of last season. In their last 3 games, KU upset Texas on the road 57-56 as a 31-point dog, lost by just 3-points on the road at TCU as a 21-point dog and lost by 6 to WV as a 15-point dog. 

It's continued into 2022. They annihilated Tennessee Tech 56-10 in their opener, covering as a 32-point favorite and then went on the road and beat West Virginia 55-42 as a 14-point dog. 

While the win over the Mountaineers certainly caught the attention of people, it's going to take a lot more than that for the value to go away with Kansas. Teams like the Jayhawks that have been so bad for so long will continue to show value. I could see there being value with KU the entire rest of this season. 

On the flip side of this, I came into this season thinking Houston was a big overrated and I really haven't seen anything to change my mind. Cougars are lucky they aren't 0-2. They trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before narrowly escaping with a 37-35 OT win at UTSA in Week 1. They then lost 30-33 in 2OT at Texas Tech last week. They were outgained 468 to 354 by the Red Raiders and 441-346 by UTSA. 

You also got to wonder just how much gas Houston has left in the tank after going into overtime in each of their first two games. Kansas to me is a live dog in this one. Give me the Jayhawks +9! 

10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: Troy Trojans +12.5

I love the value with Troy as a 12.5-point dog on the road against Appalachian State. This to me is the perfect spot to sell-high on the Mountaineers, who are getting all kinds of love after narrowly losing to UNC 61-63 in Week 1 and then pulling off the massive upset on the road last week at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point underdog. 

The betting public is going to be all over App State laying less than two touchdowns at home against a Troy team that hasn't really done anything to garner much attention, losing 28-10 at Ole Miss in Week 1 and then only beating Alabama A&M 38-17 as a 37.5-point favorite last week. 

I'm personally really high on this Troy team in 2022. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back (9 offense, 9 defense). I loved the hire of head coach Jon Sumrall, who was a co-DC at Kentucky last year. 

This team more than held their own against the Rebels in the opener. They were only -87 in total yards (346-433) -4 in first downs (20-24). 

I think with App State poised for a letdown after playing two close games against Power 5 teams in their first two games, not only makes Troy the play here but I give them a legit shot at pulling off the upset and winning this game outright. Give me the Trojans +12.5! 

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Tulane Green Wave +14

I will take my chances with Willie Fritz and Tulane catching two touchdowns on the road against Kansas State. Everyone is jumping on the Wildcats bandwagon this week after watching them absolutely destroy Missouri 40-12 last week as a mere 7-point favorite. In easily my worst bet of the weekend last week, I took the points with the Tigers in that game. 

As much as I came away impressed with Kansas State in that game, I'm going against the Wildcats again this week. 

I still have some real concerns with the Kansas State offense. They have been able to do whatever they want on the ground, rushing for 297 yards in the opener against South Dakota and 235 against Missouri. It's masked up some real inefficiencies in the passing game. Wildcats have a mere 196 passing yards in their first two games combined. Adrian Martinez was just 9 for 20 for 101 yards in the win over the Tigers. 

The lack of passing game could really come back to haunt them in this game against a very underrated Tulane defense. They were the best defense in the AAC last year behind Cincinnati in the 2nd half of the year. They ended the year only giving up 3.9 yards/carry and return 9 starters on that side of the ball. 

I know they have played two cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State, but they have allowed just 2.9 yards/carry against those two teams. I expect Tulane to load the box and force Martinez to beat them with his arm. 

I also think the Tulane offense came into this season under the radar. They brought back 9 starters on that side of the ball as well. As good as that K-State defense is, I think they will be able to put points on the board. 

Another important thing to note is this is not a great spot for the Wildcats. They got to be feeling really good about themselves after blowing out their rival Missouri and have a MONSTER game on deck at Oklahoma next week. Give me Tulane +14! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Ohio Bobcats +18.5

I'm going to roll the dice with Ohio as a 18.5-point road dog against Iowa State. I think we are getting some really good value here with the Bobcats catching this many points. It wasn't pretty last week for Ohio, who went on the road and got annihilated 46-10 at Penn State. It was every bit as ugly as the final score, as they were outgained 572 to 264. 

That to me is as bad as this Ohio offense can play and it came against what I think is a much improved Penn State team that is not as behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East as some people think. 

Keep in mind we saw Ohio put 41 points and 476 total yards in their Week 1 win over FAU. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 345 yards and 4 scores in that game. 

As for Iowa State, this is a team that I think is down a notch or two from last year. Cyclones lost their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, one of the best running back in the country in Breece Hall and two stud tight ends. They also lost their top 4 tacklers on defense. 

On top of that, I think this is an ideal spot to fade Iowa State coming off their emotional 10-7 win over in-state rival Iowa last week. It snapped a 6-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes and was their first win over Iowa under head coach Matt Campbell. 

ISU's defense did hold Iowa to just 150 total yards, but don't read anything into that. That Hawkeyes offense is absolutely horrible. They are starting a guy at QB that I'm not sure would start anywhere else in the country. They also played one of the worst FCS teams in their opener in SE Missouri State. I really think the Bobcats are going to keep this score close and if they can manage to win the turnover battle, they could pull off the upset. Give me Ohio +18.5! 

9* NCAAF Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR: Purdue Boilermakers +1.5

I'm going to take Purdue as a 1.5-point road dog at Syracuse on Saturday. I came into this season with a lot of concerns with the Boilermakers. Most notably how they would replace losing a guy like WR David Bell on the offensive side of the ball and a guy like George Karlaftis on the defensive side. 

From what I've seen in the first two games, I don't see them as concerns at all for Purdue. Jeff Brohm has really built this program up and he's got one of the best non dual threat QBs in the country in Aidan O'Connell. He had over 3,700 yards and 28 TDs in 2021 and didn't start the first 4 games. He threw for 365 yards in the opener against Penn State. 

As for replacing Bell, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has taken over that role as the No. 1 threat. Jones has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs. 

Defensively they don't have another Karlaftis on the field, but the overall talent is very good. I thought the defensive line more than held their own against a very good Nittany Lions offense. Most of the damage done by Penn State came via the passing game. Nittany Lions had just 98 rushing yards on 32 attempts. I know it was against a MAC team, but worth noting that Penn State had 234 rushing yards on 34 attempts against Ohio last week. 

Their ability to slow down the run game is a big reason I like them in this matchup. I know the Orange come in averaging 276 passing yards/game, but a lot of that was aided with the 309 yards they put up on an awful UConn defense last week. Syracuse is still a run first team behind Sean Tucker. They are averaging 46 rush attempts to just 26 pass attempts. I think if they get into a situation here where they have to pass playing from behind, this could really spiral out of control for them. 

Defensively the Orange look really good on paper coming into this game, as they are giving up just 10.5 ppg and 268 ypg. Again those numbers were aided by playing UConn, but they did hold Louisville to just 7 points in their opener. Some of that was Louisville beating themselves with turnovers, but we also saw the Cardinals offense struggle to produce last week against UCF. 

The other big thing for me is this Syracuse defense is built more to stop the run. Last year they gave up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run, but allowed opposing QBs to complete 66% of their passes. In their two games this year against Louisville and UConn, they have given up a ridiculous 33 completions on 42 pass attempts, which comes out to a 78.6% completion rate. I think O'Connell and the Boilermakers elite passing attack will have a field day in this one. Give me Purdue +1.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4

I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play. 

Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has. 

What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead. 

Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

8* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +7

Not a huge bet for me, but I'll throw some cash on the Seahawks catching a touchdown at home against the Broncos. I'm not as high on Denver as some others. Russell Wilson is without a doubt an upgrade at quarterback. I just don't think it's a lock he comes in and this offense just takes off. 

Much like his days in Seattle, Wilson will be taking snaps behind another poor offensive line. I also don't think it's close in terms of the talent he has in the passing game. Sutton and Jeudy have some promise, but they aren't on the same level as Metcalf and Lockett. I also worry about that offensive line in a hostile road environment. Not only is MNF, but this game means more given the history with Wilson. 

Seattle isn't getting any love coming into this season. That should have them coming out in this one with a huge chip on their shoulder. Geno Smith is far from elite, but he's not horrible and this should be one of the better rushing teams in the league. Denver's run defense was a weakness last year and I don't see it being all that improved. Give me the Seahawks +7! 

10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3

I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line. 

Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa. 

On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games. 

I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3! 

8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Baltimore Ravens -6.5

I got no problem laying the 6.5 on the road with Baltimore in Week 1, as they will fly to New York to take on the Jets. I know people aren't exactly dogging on the Ravens coming into this season, but I don't think they are getting near the respect they deserve. People forget about all the injuries they had to overcome last year. They finished just 8-9 and had 6 losses decided by fewer than a touchdown, including 5 by 3 or fewer. 

Lamar Jackson is special and I look for him to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing season last year. On the defense, I expect the Ravens to be one of the top units in the league. They were No. 1 last year against the run, but were dead last against the pass. They won't be last against the pass again. They get back stud corner Marcus Peters after he missed all of last year, added in a really good safety in Marcus Williams and used a 1st round pick on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. 

You also have a Jets team that I think is a year away from competing. Yes, New York had a great draft this offseason, but expecting all those guys to come in and contribute at the level needed right away is asking a lot. They are also starting the season without Zach Wilson at quarterback and instead will be sending the old and washed up Joe Flacco. I don't see that offense being able to much of anything against this Ravens defense. Give me Baltimore -6.5! 

9* NFL - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers -1

I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a slim -1 home favorite against the Browns. I don't think Carolina is getting near the respect they deserve to start the season. They are one of my favorite sleeper teams coming into 2022. I not only think they will be in the playoff picture, but I give them an outside shot of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay still has Tom Brady, but he's one year older and playing behind a much worse offensive line. The Saints got a ton of talent, but no longer have Sean Payton to steer that offense. The Falcons are in full on rebuild mode. 

Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, he's a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for Carolina. Last year the Panthers had to make do with either Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or PJ Walker under center. Combined those 3 had a horrific 14 to 21 TD to INT ratio. Mayfield, who everyone was ragging on last year had a 17-13 TD-INT ratio and did that playing at less than 100%. A lot of people forget how good Mayfield was when he was healthy in 2020, throwing for over 3,500 yards with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. 

Not only do they get an upgrade at quarterback, but at least to start the season they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey at running back. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, but in 2019 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also catching 116 passes for 1,005 yards and 4 scores. 

They get back their top two WRs in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, while also adding in one of Mayfields old teammates in Rashad Higgins and trading for Laviska Shenault, who has 121 catches for 1,219 yards in two seasons playing for a bad Jaguars team. 

Not to mention they completely revamped their offensive line and should be greatly improved up front. 

I also don't think people realize how good this Panthers defense was last year. While they ranked a mere 21st in scoring defense, giving up 23.8 ppg, they were No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 305.9 ypg. They had the No. 4 ranked pass defense, despite losing stud rookie 1st round corner Jaycee Horn to an injury after just 3 games. 

As for the Browns, they got some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, they are going to be limited offensively with Jacoby Brissett. I really think they are going to be a little too one dimensional with the run game and really struggle to win games early on in the year. Give me the Panthers -1! 

10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year. 

Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter. 

He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed. 

They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact. 

The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks. 

I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5! 

8* NCAAF - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Arizona Wildcats +10.5

I will take my chances with the Wildcats as a 10.5-point home dog against Mississippi State late Saturday night. I backed Arizona as a 6.5-point road dog in Week 1 at San Diego State and they won that game 38-20. 

I mentioned in my analysis for that play that I thought Arizona was being extremely undervalued coming into this season and one win is not going to change that after last year's 1-11 campaign. The Wildcats could end up being one of the most improved teams in the country with the influx of talent they added to their roster and now being in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch. 

The biggest upgrade for the Wildcats came at quarterback, where they landed Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura, who led the Pac-12 in passing last year. He was outstanding in their win over the Aztecs, throwing for 299 yards and 4 scores. Arizona also had 162 yards on the ground. 

So while I think Mississippi State is a really good football team and poised to make improvements of their own in 2022, I think they are a bit overpriced coming into this one and if they don't play up to their full potential could easily lose this one outright. Give me Arizona +10.5! 

9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Boston College this Saturday. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Va Tech off their upset loss in Week 1, where they lost 17-20 at Old Dominion. 

It certainly wasn't the way new head coach Brent Pry wanted to start his tenure in Blacksburg, but it wasn't all bad. Pry, who came over after his great run as the DC at Penn State the past 6 years, had the Hokies defense ready to play. Virginia Tech held the Monarchs to just 249 total yards with just 165 thru the air and 84 on the ground. 

They lost the game because they committed 14 penalties for 100 yards and had 5 turnovers. Those mistakes can be corrected and playing at home in Week 2 should certainly help in that department. 

I played against BC in their opener, as I had Rutgers +7 and the Scarlet Knights won that game outright 22-21. The Eagles could only manage 312 total yards and were one dimensional with just 29 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The defense wasn't a whole lot better, as they let Rutgers come into their stadium and put up over 200 yards (5.0 yards/carry) against them. 

Eagles in my opinion are getting too much respect from the books and the public because they have a decent QB in Phil Jurkovec. There's just not enough talent around him for BC to be a real threat in the ACC and I especially see them struggling this year on the road. Give me the Hokies -2.5! 

9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Illinois Fighting Illini -4.5

I'll take my chances with Illinois laying 4.5 at home against Virginia. I'm really high on the Fighting Illini in 2022. They made massive improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema last year and I have all the confidence in him getting this team to a bowl game and pulling off an upset or two in the Big Ten this season. 

I had one of my strongest plays of the entire season on Illinois in Week Zero at home against Wyoming. I bet them at -10 roughly a month before the season even started and that one was never in doubt. The Fighting Illini won that game 38-6. 

I was tempted to go right back with them last week as a small dog against Indiana, but I felt it was going to be a bit of a tricky spot for them in their first true road game in a prime time Friday night matchup. It ended up being a good call, as Indiana won the game 23-20 on a late TD drive, but that's a game Illinois should have won. They outgained the Hoosiers 448 to 362 and dominated time of possession. They had 4 turnovers and were 0-2 on 4th down or they win that thing by double-digits. 

I believe that loss has created some value here with Illinois laying less than a touchdown against the Cavaliers. Virginia defeated Richmond 34-17 and put up over 505 total yards, but that's about how it should have gone. I know the Cavaliers return one of the top signal callers in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, but only 3 other starters were back on the offensive side of the ball. They lost all 5 starters on the defensive line and that's where I think the struggles will start for them against a talented Illinois front. 

On the flip side of this, I think Illinois' offense will be able to do as they please against this Virginia defense. The Cavaliers lost 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a defense that struggled in 2021, giving up 31.8 ppg and 466 ypg. 

Something else to note about that defense, is how bad they played on the road. In their 5 true road games they gave up a staggering 46.8 ppg and 563.4 ypg. As long as Illinois takes better care of the football and they should, I think they easily win this game by double-digits. Give me Illinois -4.5! 

9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

I will take my chances with the Red Raiders as a slim 3-point home favorite against No. 25 ranked Houston in Week 2. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, it gets my attention, as the betting public will almost always take the points with the ranked team. It tells me the books really like what they see out of the favorite and I'm 100% on board with the books in this one. 

After struggling to put away FCS teams the past couple of seasons, Texas Tech opened the 2022 season with a 63-10 blowout win over Murray State. They lost starting quarterback Tyler Shough in that win, but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and played great. Smith went 14 of 16 for 221 yards and 4 scores. 

I'm expecting big things out of this offense under new offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who did a remarkable job last year turning around a Western Kentucky offense. The Hilltoppers only managed 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg in 2020. With Kittley calling the shots they improved to 44.2 ppg and 535 ypg. 

Not only am I high on Texas Tech coming into the season, I'm also down on the Cougars. They were extremely fortunate to win their opener at UTSA, as they trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before eventually winning 37-35 in 3OT. Cougars were outgained in that game 441 to 346. 

I look for Houston to have a hard time keeping pace with the Red Raiders on the road. Give me Texas Tech -3! 

10* NCAAF - Revenge PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Volunteers -6.5

I'll take my chances with Tennessee as a 6.5-point road favorite against Pittsburgh on Saturday. This line might seem a bit off to some. The Panthers are No. 17 in the country and fresh off a big win at home against West Virginia, yet are an underdog at home against No. 24 Tennessee. I couldn't agree more with the line. In fact, I think it's a bit of a steal getting the Vols at less than a touchdown. 

It's why you can't pay too much attention to the rankings this early in the season. Too much of it is based on what a team did the previous year. I think when it's all said and done, the Vols will be at the very least a Top 15 and maybe even a Top 10 team, while I could see the Panthers struggling to stay in the Top 25. 

I know Pitt got a great addition at quarterback in USC transfer Kedon Slovis to offset the loss of one of their all-time best quarterbacks in program history in Kenny Pickett, but I don't see this team coming close to the 41.4 ppg and 487 ypg they put up last year. They put up 38 in the win over West Virginia, but only managed 384 total yards and the defense scored 7 of those 38 on a 56 yd interception returned for a TD. If they don't get that pick six, they probably lose that game. 

As for Tennessee, I think they are the verge of taking a massive step forward after shocking everyone in 2021, going 7-6 in the first year under head coach Josh Heupel. That was with the roster in complete turmoil going into the season. 

Now they got 15 starters back, including one of the SEC's best signal callers in Hendon Hooker, who sparked quite a turnaround for the Vols offense last year. Tennessee went from averaging 21.5 ppg and 346 ypg in 2021 to putting up 39.3 ppg and 475 ypg. 

They looked to be in midseason form in Week 1, as they put up 59 points and 569 yards in a blowout win over Ball State and that was them calling off the dogs after taking a 45-0 lead early in the 3rd quarter. 

The defense did give up 29.1 ppg and 422 ypg last year, but keep in mind some of that is a result of just how fast the play on offense. Not many teams are going to be equipped to keep pace. Give me the Vols -6.5! 

8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Missouri Tigers +8

I will gladly take my chances with Missouri as a 8-point road dog against Kansas State. These two will renew their rivalry (known as the Border War), as they have not played since 2011. Always like getting a dog who I think can win outright in a rivalry game and not only are we getting points, we are getting over a touchdown. 

Kansas State really did what we expected in their opener, cruising to a 34-0 win against South Dakota. Usually a 34-point win would suggest a massive edge in total yards, but the Wildcats only outgained South Dakota 392 to 270. The even bigger thing that stands out to me is 297 of those yards came on the ground. K-State had just 95 passing yards. 

Maybe they didn't want to put anything on tape, but I think some of it just speaks to the limitations that Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez has throwing the ball. 

Missouri played a much tougher opponent in Louisiana Tech and won that game 52-24 with a 558 to 347 edge in total yards. Most of the damage for the Bulldogs came thru the air, as they had 336 yards passing. One thing to note is that while Missouri gave up a lot of yards, they did have 3 interceptions. 

They also held La Tech to just 11 rushing yards on 22 attempts. I don't think that's just them playing a bad team. Missouri added a lot up front. They brought in 4 transfers from Power 5 programs and a 2x FCS AA. Not to mention return one of the better SEC duos at DE in Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat. 

If Missouri's defense can hold their own, I like the offense to do enough to keep this thing close and give them a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. Give me Missouri +8! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Louisville Cardinals +6.5

I'll take my chances with Louisville covering the 6.5 on the road against UCF Friday night in Orlando. My only loser this past Saturday was on Louisville -4.5 at Syracuse and it wasn't close. The Orange ended up winning that game going away 31-7. 

With that said, Louisville did themselves no favors in that contest. Midway thru the 2nd quarter the Cardinals had 1st & Goal from the Syracuse 7 trailing 7-17. They ended up going for it on 4th down and failed to convert. They also had three straight possessions in the 2nd half with the game still within reach where they turned it over. The first two via interception and the other a fumble. The latter two of those turnovers resulting in the Orange scoring touchdowns on a short field to get to the final score of 31-7. 

It was about as bad as starting quarterback Malik Cunningham could play and you just have to wonder if there was a lack of respect from Louisville. Keep in mind they annihilated the Orange last year 41-3 late in the season. 

Not only do I think there's some value built into this line because of how bad it appears Louisville played last week, but also because of how good UCF looked. The Knights beat South Carolina State 56-10 with a ridiculous 600 to 91 edge in total yards. I think we are getting at least 3.5 points of value here, as my numbers make this UCF -3. Give me Louisville +6.5! 

10* NCAAF - Clemson/Ga Tech MAX UNIT Top Play: Clemson Tigers -23

I'll take my chances with Clemson as a 23-point favorite against the Yellow Jackets in Monday's Labor Day standalone game. Last year was a down year for the Tigers and they still managed to win 10 games. There's a lot of people wondering where Clemson will go in 2022 after losing two of the best coordinators in the country. Not me. Dabo Swinney has done a remarkable job of hiring coordinators in his tenure at Clemson and I like both new OC Brandon Streeter and DC Wes Goodwin. 

The offense simply can't be as bad as it was last year and people forget that this is an offense that scored 30 or more in 5 straight games to close out the regular-season. Whether it's DJ Uiagalelei or freshman Cade Klubnik, I expect much better play from the quarterback position. It will help facing what may be the worst defense in the ACC in Georgia Tech, who returns just 3 starters from a unit that gave up 33.5 ppg and 455 ypg in 2021. 

I also don't think there's enough talk about this Clemson defensive line. It's as good a unit as they have had, right on par with that elite group from 2018. That front will be going up against a inexperienced Georgia Tech offense and a quarterback in Jeff Sims that is more a threat with his legs than his arm. This to me has blowout written all over it! Give me Clemson -23! 

10* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oregon State Beavers -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Beavers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. Don't get me wrong, Boise State is one of the better teams in the Mountain West, but just because they got 17 returning starters I don't think it's a lock they are going to be this elite team that contends for a New Year's 6 bowl. 

Chris Petersen built quite the empire in Boise and they had a great hire to replace him in Bryan Harsin. I don't know if I feel the same way about 2nd year head coach Andy Avalos. Sure it was his first year, but he inherited a team that brought back 17 starters and only was able to muster a 7-5 record. 

Given all that, this is more a play on the Beavers at this price than anything. Oregon State was committed to the vision of head coach Jonathan Smith and it paid off with a 7-6 season in 2021. The first winning record for the Beavers since 2013. Smith and OC Brian Lindgren have really created a dynamic offensive attack and I think they could come close to replicating last year's team that finished with 31.2 ppg and 429 ypg. 

Defensively there is also a lot of optimism under new defensive coordinator Trent Bray, who sparked quite the turnaround after filling in as the interim DC last year after Tim Tibesar was let go. They got 9 starters back on that side of the ball and should be improved (allowed only 25.8 ppg and 387 ypg in 2021). 

If Oregon stumbles at all in the first year under new head coach Dan Lanning and Washington doesn't rebound like many are expecting, they could shock everyone and win the Pac-12 North. Give me the Beavers -2.5! 

10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Louisville Cardinals -4

I'll take my chances with the Cardinals as a mere -4 favorite on the road against Syracuse in Week 1. I just think the Orange are getting a little too much respect in this one. Yes this is a team that improved a ton in 2021 going from a 1-10 season in 2020 to just missing out on a bowl at 5-7. Most will just assume another step in the right direction with 17 returning starters. One of those being one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker. 

I just think the offense was a little too dependent on Tucker and teams started to figure them out down the stretch (scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5). They get back 8 starters on defense, but lose all 3 starters from a defensive line that was a huge strength last year. 

The other big thing for me is I really like the direction that Louisville is going under head coach Scott Satterfield. This was a team that had a very misleading 6-7 record in 2021. They had three different games where they lost on the final play. They also had a lead going in the 4th quarter of a loss at NC State. 

The Cardinals bring back 14 starters and might have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Malik Cunningham. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's also not far off. Cunningham threw for almost 3,000 yards with a 19-6 TD-INT ratio and led the team with 1,031 rushing yards, scoring 20 rushing TDs and averaging 6.0 yards/carry. Playing behind one of the best o-lines in the ACC, I could see Louisville scoring 40+ ppg. 

The defense is what really held this team back in 2021. It didn't helped they lost two of their better defenders to injury in linebacker Monty Montgomery and corner Kei'Trel Clark. I think they are going to be improved on all 3 levels. If they can contain Tucker and force Syracuse to throw more than they would like, this could really get ugly. Either way I like the Cardinals to cash. Give me Louisville -4! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Arizona Wildcats +6.5

I'm willing to roll the dice with Arizona as a 6.5-pt road dog against San Diego State on Saturday. A lot of people are going to look at this line and without hesitation run to the ticket window to bet the Aztecs. Arizona is coming off a 1-11 season, while San Diego State is coming off a 12-2 campaign. 

What a lot of people don't realize is how much better this Wildcats team figures to be in 2022. A big part of that is the addition of transfer quarterback  Jayden De Laura, who comes over from Washington State. He led the Pac-12 in both touchdowns (23) and passing yards (2,789) during the regular season. They also added a very talented transfer WR in UTEP's Jacob Cowing. They also got experience back on the offensive line and at running back. 

Defensively they got what I feel is a big upgrade at defensive coordinator. They got rid of Don Brown and replaced him with UCLA's Johnny Nansen, who played a big role in the Bruins defensive revival the past few seasons. 

As for San Diego State, they got some nice pieces and figure to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. I just think they are going to take a step back overall. Keep in mind they were on the right side of several close calls with 6 wins by 8 or fewer points. They also don't have the weapon that was punter Matt Araiza, who couldn't have made life any easier on that defense with how easily he could flip the field. Give me Arizona +6.5! 

9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5

I got no problem laying the 6.5 at home with the Razorbacks as they open up the 2022 season against Cincinnati. Arkansas had one of the most unlikely and remarkable one-year turnarounds in the country last year. The Razorbacks went just 3-7 in the shortened 2020 season, which was also the first under head coach Sam Pittman. Most had them picked to finish last in the SEC West. They instead went 9-4, which included a bowl win over Penn State, a non-conference thrashing of Texas (40-21) and a upset win over a Top 10 Texas A&M team (20-10). 

A big reason for the turnaround was the emergence of quarterback KJ Jefferson, who threw for 2,676 yards with a 21-4 TD/INT ratio and led the team with 664 rushing yards. With Jefferson back and the Razorbacks expected to field one of the best o-lines in the country, I could easily see them topping last year's 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg. 

There are some questions on the defensive side of the ball, where just 4 starters are back, but I like their defensive coordinator (Barry Odom). After having to make do with what was left over from the previous regime in 2020, Arkansas allowed just 22.9 ppg and 367 ypg in 2021. 

As for Cincinnati, I think it's time to sell-high after last year's playoff run. This isn't Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State or Clemson where they can just reload. Their not going to fall off a cliff either, but regression has to be expected. On offense the Bearcats lose not only their star quarterback in Desmond Ridder, but also their top rusher and receiver. Defensively they lost 6 guys to the NFL and are surely going to take not just a small step back but a pretty big one. Give me Arkansas -6.5! 

8* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rutgers +7) 

I think we are getting some big time value with Rutgers catching a touchdown on the road against Boston College in Week 1. I think at the most the Eagles should be laying a field goal in this game. Greg Schiano doesn't get near the respect he deserves for how quickly he's got the Scarlet Knights turned around in his second stint with the program. 

Schiano took over a team that had won just 9 games in 4 seasons under previous head coach Chris Ash. They went just 3-6 in Schiano's first year, but improved to 5-8. While they are still a long way from the top of the Big Ten, they were a much more competitive team than they had been. 

They might still be another year away from really breaking out, but I don't see them reverting back in 2022, even with some of the pieces they lost. 

As for Boston College, I just think they are a bit overrated coming into 2022. A lot of people like to look at the QB position and what a team has coming back to make their assessment of how good the team will be. The Eagles have a guy that deservedly garners some respect in Phil Jurkovec. The problem I have is the offensive line. BC lost 4 of their 5 starters up front. Something I think could prove to be a real issue in this game, as Rutgers strength defensively is their defensive line. Give me the Scarlet Knights +7! 

10* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Penn St -3

I'm well aware of Purdue's track record as an underdog at home in big games, but I just have to take my shot with Penn State at -3 in this one. I think Purdue is getting way too much respect coming into this season after last year's 9-win campaign. 

While the Boilermakers return 14 starters, including quarterback Adan O'Connell, they lose their top 3 wide outs. One of those being their best offensive player in wideout David Bell. They also lose two of their best defensive players in linebacker Jaylan Alexander and defensive end George Karlaftis. 

I'm not saying Purdue will fall off a cliff like we saw with say Indiana last year, I just don't see them being as good. I also think Penn State might be one of the most underrated teams in the country. 

The Nittany Lions were ranked as high as #4 last year before starting quarterback Sean Clifford went down with an injury against Iowa. They lost a crazy 9OT game the next week against Illinois and lost the following time out against Ohio State. They later lost by 3 at home to Michigan and by 3 on the road at Michigan State. Of their 5 losses, 4 came against teams that were ranked in the Top 12 at the time they played them. 

Clifford is back and I think they are going to surprise some people on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they made a huge hire by bringing in Miami's Manny Diaz to be the new defensive coordinator. With the talent Penn State has on that side of the ball, I think that defense could be even better than the unit last year that only gave up 17.3 ppg. Give me Penn State -3! 

10* NCAAF Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Illinois -10) 

I will gladly lay the -10 with Illinois at home against Wyoming in Week Zero. I don't think this Illini team is getting anywhere close to the respect they deserve. They made some pretty sizeable improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema's first year on the job in 2021. They won 5 games with 4 of those wins coming in Big Ten play. They could have been even better with 3 close losses. 

I think they are ready to take another big step forward in 2022. Last year they featured a strong running game, but offered little to no threat in the passing game. The ground game should be just as good and they brought in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. He's nothing special, but a huge upgrade over what they had. 

Illinois also brought in UTSA's Barry Lunney to be their new OC. He had the Roadrunners ranked in the Top 10 in the country last year in scoring. He's not only going to pick up the pace, but it should lead to a few more big plays. 

Wyoming is coming off a solid 7-6 season in 2021, but lose a lot from that team. They only have 8 starters back total (4 on each side of the ball). They will have to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and top 2 receivers on offense. They lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including their leader in Chan Muma, whose 142 tackles were 52 more than the next best on the team. 

I not only think the Illini cover the 10, but I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Illinois -10! 

50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4) 

I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game. 

Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score. 

On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4! 

50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary. 

They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7! 

40* (NFL) Bills/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -1) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at basically a pick'em at home against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown. Everyone has fallen in love with Josh Allen and the Bills after what they did to the Pats last week. Allen basically threw the equivalent of a perfect game in baseball. How many guys do you see throw perfect games in back-to-back games. 

I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Allen and company on the road against a much improved Chiefs defense. I know the Bills won at KC earlier this season, but that was back in Week 5. At that point the Chiefs were on pace to be one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history and the offense was struggling to do anything. 

Mahomes and the Chiefs have figured things out and this is the time of year where they play their best football. Crazy to think, but KC is going to have the chip on their shoulder with all this talk about Buffalo. Give me the Chiefs -1! 

50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6) 

I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins.

I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. 

The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6! 

50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5) 

I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here. 

I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5! 

50* (CFB) - National Championship MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -2.5) 

I love Georgia laying less than a field goal against Alabama in the title game. I was pretty set on being on the Bulldogs in this game, as I knew there was going to be great value with Georgia after how badly they lost to Alabama in the SEC title game. 

What everyone overlooks with how the SEC title game played out, was the fact that the Bulldogs weren't nearly as invested in the outcome as Alabama. Winning a conference title would be a big deal for a lot of programs, but Georgia is to the point that all they care about is winning the whole thing. They have been so close and came up short. 

To them, it didn't matter if they won that game. This is the only game that matters. I think we saw the difference in energy and effort from Georgia in their semifinal game against Michigan. This Bulldogs team was the best in the country this year and I think that defense will be much better prepared for Bryce Young and the Alabama offense the second time around. Give me Georgia -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3) 

I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end. 

I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs. 

The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play. 

Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards. 

The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game. 

I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3! 

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -4) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Saints as a mere 4-point road favorite against the Falcons. New Orleans needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs, but it's definitely a possibility. The Saints need the 49ers to lose at the Rams and LA needs to win that game to lock up the NFC West and No. 2 seed in the NFC. 

The Falcons aren't a very good team and in a really bad spot, having just watched their playoff hopes come to an end with last week's loss at Buffalo. I just don't see Atlanta being all that interested in this game and I also think that Falcons offense is in for a long day against a Saints defense that is really playing well down the stretch. Give me New Orleans -4! 

40* (NFL) Chiefs/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -11)

I'm laying the big number with the Chiefs on the road against the Broncos. I get this is a division game and these two fanbases can't stand each other, but KC is the only team with something to play for, they are clearly the better team and they are decimated with injuries to close out the year. 

Denver won't have starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and while Drew Lock isn't horrible, he does tend to force some things and turn the ball over. Denver's defense will also have to try to contain Patrick Mahomes and the CHiefs high-powered offense without their two starting corners. 

Chiefs need to win this game to ensure they get at least the No. 2 seed and keep their slim hopes alive for that No. 1 seed (need Titans to lose at Texans). I really like how this team has been playing down the stretch, despite last week's slip up against the Bengals. I don't think this game is close for long. Give me KC -11! 

40* (CFB) - Texas Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -3.5) 

I don't see how you don't roll the dice on the Wildcats laying this short of number against LSU (I put this play in last week before the line moved a ton. I still like K-State up to -7). I just don't think we are going to get a great effort or showing out of LSU in this game. The Tigers are going to be led by offensive line coach Brad Davis. Does he really know how to get a team ready for a bowl game? 

If that wasn't going to be hard enough, LSU's starting quarterback, Max Johnson, won't play after entering the transfer portal. They are going to be potentially be sending out a freshman or even a walk-on to play the most important position. 

Kansas State on the other hand is expected to have their starting quarterback, Skylar Thompson back from an injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale. I also am a big fan of Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman. I'm confident he will have his team ready to go and keep in mind while LSU is down, it's a big deal for these other Power 5 teams when they get a shot at a top-tier program like the Tigers. Give me Kansas State -3.5! 

50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5) 

I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play. 

I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh. 

Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home. 

I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5! 

40* (NFL) Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -5) 

This feels like a massive square play, but I can't help myself. I just think there's some value here with the Cowboys laying less than a touchdown at home against the Cardinals. I was on Arizona in last week's loss at home to the Colts. 

I really thought we were going to see that team respond in a big way after that embarrassing loss to the Lions. Instead they can't beat a Colts team that lost 80% of their offensive line and best player on defense. I don't think people realize how hard it is for a team to compete with that much turnover in such a short period of time on the offensive line. 

To me the only think you can do right now is keep betting against the Cardinals, at least until they show us anything that makes you think they are the team we thought they were in their 7-0 start to the season. They remind me a lot of the Steelers team from last year, who had a bit of a fraudulent 11-0 start before ending the regular season 1-4 over their final 5 games. 

The other big thing for me is that I believe the Cowboys have got some of that swagger back offensively. If Dak doesn't get hurt and go through that midseason lull, the media wouldn't be able to stop talking about this unit. I also think they got a very underrated defense that has a lot of guys who are really good at getting after the quarterback. 

I think the Cowboys will be out to make a statement in what feels like their final tune-up before the postseason. I think if they lay a dud down the stretch, it's next week at Philly when maybe the rest some guys. Give me Dallas -5! 

50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4) 

I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl. 

Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best. 

I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes. 

I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

40* (CFB) - Utah/Ohio St ROSE BOWL MASSACRE (Utah +4.5) 

I've made a lot of profit fading teams like Ohio State in bowl games and will gladly fade the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl against what I think is an underrated and motivated Utah team. 

Ohio State went into their regular-season finale against Michigan knowing that if they won, they needed to just beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, which they would have, and they would be playing on New Years Eve in the College Football playoff. 

They aren't going to be excited about beating Utah. It's pretty evident they don't care with all the guys that opted out. 

On the flip side of this, the Utes are going to be extremely excited to solidify their Pac-12 title with a win over an elite program like Ohio State. Not to mention it's the first time they will be participating in the Rose Bowl under Kyle Winningham. With how much these bowl games comes down to who is the more motivated team, I not only think Utah covers, I like them to win the game outright. Give me the Utes +4.5! 

40* (CFB) Citrus Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Iowa +3)

I don't think Iowa should be catching points in this one, so this was really an easy call for me with them getting a field goal. The Hawkeyes laid an egg in the Big Ten title game against Michigan. They competed for about a half, but in the end just got beat by a much better team. 

I think if Wisconsin would have beat Minnesota and not allowed Iowa to backdoor into the Big Ten title game, the outlook would be a lot different on this team. 

I also don't think there's going to be any kind of letdown from losing that game, as that wasn't a win and make the playoff scenario. If anything, I believe it will leave a sour taste in their mouth and have them excited to play on New Years Day. 

The other big thing is the matchup. Iowa's biggest weakness is a quarterback that can attack their zone, especially if they have a big time talent at wide receiver. That's not Kentucky. The Wildcats are a very run heavy team.

Slowing down the run game is what this Iowa defense does best and when they do that they tend to force turnovers in bunches. Don't be surprised if that Hawkeyes defense does just that in this game, as the Wildcats had 5 games this season where they had 3 or more turnovers. 

Iowa's top running back Tyler Goodson has opted out, but I don't think there's a huge drop off from him to the backups. Iowa has won and covered each of their last 3 bowl games, including a 27-22 win over Mississippi State in the 2018 Outback Bowl as a 7-point dog. Give me the Hawkeyes +3! 

50* (CFB) - Fiesta Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Notre Dame -1.5) 

I really like the Irish laying less than a field goal against Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday. I'm usually a little skeptic on backing a team that lost their head coach, but Brian Kelly leaving for the job at LSU is not the end of the world. Notre Dame is in good hands with Marcus Freeman and these players seem to really enjoy playing for him. 

I also think this Notre Dame team is one of the most underrated teams in the country to end the year. The only blemish on the schedule for the Irish was a 13-24 loss to Cincinnati, who is in the 4-team playoff. This team closed out the season outscoring their final 4 opponents 131 to 21. 

The Irish will have to go to battle without running back Kyren Williams, but I don't think they need to be prolific offensively to win here by at least a field goal. The Notre Dame defense figures to make life miserable for a very average Oklahoma State offense. I'm not a big fan of quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

I also question how motivated the Cowboys are for this game. While they probably wouldn't of made it had they won, they went into their Big 12 title game against Baylor with an outside shot of making the 4-team playoff. Any time a team comes that close to the playoffs and doesn't get the invite, I don't know that there's any bowl game that will have them really excited to play. Give me the Irish -1.5! 

40* (CFB) - Georgia/Michigan ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia -7.5) 

Hats off to John  Harbaugh for finally getting Michigan over the hump and into the 4-team playoff, but I'm not as bullish on the Wolverines chances in the playoffs as others.

I just think with how good Michigan looked in the win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale and against Iowa in the Big Ten title game, combined with how bad Georgia looked against Alabama in the SEC title game, it's got everyone wanting to take Michigan and the points. 

I don't really get it. Prior to losing to Alabama, most had Georgia on a pedestal above the rest of the teams. Everyone was  on them to win and cover against the Crimson Tide.

What everyone overlooked in that game, was the fact that it didn't mean near as much to the Bulldogs as it did Alabama. Win or lose Georgia was in the playoffs. Alabama had to win. 

I think it was a good loss for the Bulldogs, as it will have them refocused and ready to go in the playoffs. I also love the matchup here, especially for the Georgia defense. Michigan wants to attack you on the ground and that's just not how you attack this Bulldogs defense.

They gave up 82 ypg and 2.6 ypc in a really good SEC. Wolverines don't have a Bryce Young at quarterback or near the talent at wide receiver that Alabama had. Give me the Bulldogs -7.5! 

40* (CFB) - Alabama/Cincinnati ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati +13.5)

Everyone is going to be on Alabama after how impressive they looked in their win over Georgia. I got to take the points with Cincinnati. I just don't think people take into account the level of motivation for Alabama and Georgia in the SEC title game.

The Crimson Tide had to win to get in, where the Bulldogs work had already been done. They knew win or lose they were in the 4-team playoff and with no home field advantage that's really all that mattered. You could just see it in the play. Georgia just wasn't themselves on either side of the ball. 

Cincinnati's defense may not be elite, but it's really good and when it's mattered the most this year they have showed up in a big way. They also got a brilliant defensive mind in Luke Fickell as their head coach. I think they can make it somewhat difficult for Bryce Young, who is down a big weapon in wideout John Metchie. 

The other thing that I think gives the Bearcats a chance is they got a quarterback who can make plays when they need it. Desmond Ridder threw for over 3,000 yards with a 30-8 TD-INT ratio. Cincinnati also has a back in Jerome Ford, who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 19 TDs. 

You also got to love that Cincinnati is the team with nothing to lose in this thing. No one is giving them a shot. This team has overcome so much to get to the 4-team playoff. I think it makes them a dog with a serious bite. Give me the Bearcats +13.5! 

50* (CFB) - Music City Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6) 

I will happily lay the 6-points with the Volunteers as they take on Purdue in the Music City Bowl on Thursday. I was leaning towards taking the Vols when the bowl matchups were announced and it really caught my attention when it was learned that Boilermakers star wideout David Bell and star defensive end George Karlaftis were both going to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. 

Those are two massive losses. Easily the best player on each side of the ball. Bell had 93 catches for 1,286 yards and his loss will really magnify the Boilermakers lack of a running game. Losing a guy like Karlaftis impacts the entire defense, as you just don't have that relentless pressure on the opposing QB. 

I also think there's a lot to like about this Tennessee team. Not many were even picking the Vols to be good enough to make a bowl game this year and yet first year head coach Josh Heupel got them to 7-5. Three of those losses were to Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, the other two were to Pitt and on the road against Florida before their season derailed. 

I think there will be a lot of motivation for Heupel and this team to cap off this first season with a bowl win and really get things going in the right direction for next year. Give me the Vols -6! 

40* (CFB) - Pinstripe Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -3.5) 

We definitely missed the better number with the Terps, but I'm done betting games early until we stop seeing teams decimated by COVID. I still think there's more than enough value here with Maryland at -3.5. 

Virginia Tech is an absolute mess going into this game. Not only are they operating under an interim head coach after firing Justin Fuente, but they got multiple key players not playing.

The Hokies will be down to 3rd string quarterback Connor Blumrick after starter Braxton Burmeister and backup Knox Kadum both left for the transfer portal. Blumrick attempted just 16 passes during the season and completed just 43.8% with an anemic 2.6 average. He won't have top wide out Tre Turner or talented guard Lecitus Smith, who both opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They also had 3 more of their top defenders opt out to prepare for the NFL. 

On the flip side, I think Maryland is really excited to be in a bowl game. It's the first they have made under head coach Mike Locksley and this program hasn't won a bowl game since beating ECU back in the 2010 Military Bowl. Give me the Terps -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Guaranteed Rate Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota -4) 

I'm going to take Minnesota -4 against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday. I think this Gophers team went into bowl prep riding a huge wave of momentum, as they closed out the season with a 23-13 win over No. 14 Wisconsin. A victory that kept the Badgers out of the Big Ten title game. 

The one big change for the Gophers following that game was the decision of P.J. Fleck to fire offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr.. Normally I would see this as a negative, but it's not like this Minnesota offense was doing anything on that side of the ball. A change could really help them. 

It's worth noting that the new offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who was the offensive analyst for West Virginia this season. Ciarrocca also has some ties to this program, as he was the OC/QB coach here from 2017 to 2019. 

While wide receivers coach Matt Simon will serve as the OC in the bowl, you have to wonder if Ciarrocca will be willing to give Fleck and his staff the book on the Mountaineers offense and how to best defend what they do. 

Either way West Virginia will have to play in the bowl game without one of their top offensive weapons, as running back Leddie Brown, who rushed for 1,065 yards and 13 scores, has opted out. No other player on the team had more than 300 rushing yards and the next best running back was sophomore Tony Mathis with a mere 256 yards. 

Not to mention the Gophers D was balling to close out the season. In Minnesota last 7 games they allowed just 17.3 ppg, while giving up only 151.7 passing yards/game and 116.7 rushing yards/game. 

Not saying it will be a blowout, but I feel confident the Gophers can win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -4! 

50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3) 

I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those. 

You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3! 

40* (CFB) - Quick Lane Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (W Michigan -6.5) 

Have to roll the dice with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl. I just don't know how you can expect much out of this Wolf Pack team given what they will have to work with. 

Star quarterback Carson Strong is sitting out, as is stud tight end Cole Turner. It also doesn't seem like they will have wide out Romeo Doubs and wide outs  Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart both went into the transfer portal. So did starting right guard Gray Davis, starting left tackle Jacob Gardner, 2nd-Team linebacker Daiyan Henley and corner A.J. King. 

That's just the players. Head coach Jay Norvell left for the Colorado State job. He took with him the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, wide receivers coach, tight ends coach and special teams coach. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for the same job at Washington State. Give me Western Michigan -6.5! 

40* (NFL) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +6.5) 

I really like the value here with the Bears as a 6.5-point road dog against the Seahawks. Seattle has no business laying this kind of number in this spot. The Seahawks just had their playoff hopes put to rest in last week's 10-20 loss at the Rams. Even if they win out, the best they can do is 8-9. 

I could definitely see this team throwing in the towel given all they have gone through this year. It also feels like it's the end of an era in some way for Seattle. Hard to believe that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be back. 

Some might see Chicago starting Nick Foles as a bad thing, but I'm not so sure Foles shouldn't have been the guy from the start. Andy Dalton gives you next to nothing and Fields isn't quite ready. More than anything, the quarterback play can't be much worse. Give me the Bears +6.5! 

40* (NFL) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vikings +3) 

I'll take the 3-points with the Vikings at home, as they get ready to host the Rams on Sunday. I just think Los Angeles is bit overvalued coming into this game, as I think this line should be closer to a pick'em. 

I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but this Vikings team deserves to better than 7-7. Every single one of their losses have come by 8 points or less with 5 of them coming by 4 or fewer. A few bounces go the other way and they could easily be sitting here with the same record as these Rams and in that scenario they certainly wouldn't be a dog at home. 

I also don't love the spot for LA. While the Vikings are on a short week of rest after playing Monday, the Rams are only going to have 4 days to prepare for this game and it's really only 3 when you figure in the travel. On top of that, it's an early window game, which is always tough on west coast teams that have to travel east across multiple time zones. 

I know the Rams are still trying to get that No. 1 seed, but it's not like they can feel great about catching Green Bay. While they are just 1-game back of the Packers in the standings, their head-to-head loss to the Packers means they have to make up 2 games with 3 to play. 

Minnesota is clearly the more desperate team in this game, as they are currently tied with the Eagles and Saints for the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the NFC. 

Rams are just 3-11 ATS since McVay took over after 3 or more consecutive wins and just 2-9 ATS when coming off 2 or more straight wins the last two seasons. Give me the Vikings +3! 

50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3) 

This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7. 

Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. 

It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points! 

50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1) 

I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games. 

I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week. 

As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding. 

I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1! 

40* (CFB) - Camellia Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia St -5.5) 

This is a game I originally wasn't going to play, but after talking it over with Jack Jones on the SportsCapping Podcast (he gave it out as a free play), I really think it's a strong play. You have the Sun Belt vs the MAC. The Sun Belt has been a great conference to back in these bowl games and the MAC has been one of the best to fade. 

Georgia State comes in at 7-5, but they were playing more like a 8 or 9 win team coming into this game. They closed out the season winning 6 of their final 7 games. They had a big upset win over Coastal Carolina during this run as a double-digit dog and only lost by 4 on the road against the Sun Belt's best team in Lafayette. 

As for Ball State, this is a team that was suppose to be better than they were, but it just never came together for the Cardinals in 2021. I don't think they are going to magically figured it out in this bowl game and wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a bit of a blowout. Give me Georgia State -5.5! 

40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Titans +3.5) 

I got to take the Titans at +3.5 at home against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. I know Tennessee has fallen off quite a bit since losing Henry, but they have actually ran it pretty well without their big horse. Titans had over 200 yards on the ground in their last game against the Steelers and 270 a couple of games back against the Pats. 

I also think it's HUGE for that Titans offense to get back their go-to-guy on the outside in wide out A.J. Brown. Tennessee is also not an easy place to play and these home teams have quite a big edge in these Thursday Night games. Give me the Titans +3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Frisco Classic Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (North Texas +2.5) 

I'm going to take the 2.5 with the Mean Green as they take on Miami (OH) in the Frisco Classic Bowl in Frico, Texas. We have seen this line move in favor of North Texas, but I don't think it's moved enough, as I think the Mean Green should be favored. 

The MAC is awful and have just not performed well in bowl games when they get matched up with equal or better talent from other FBS conferences. I just don't know what the books see in this RedHawks team. 

On the flip side, North Texas is a team that closed out the regular-season on fire. The Mean Green were sitting at 1-6 going into a late Oct. game against Rice. They won that game 30-24 in OT and never looked back, closing out the year on a 5-game winning streak, which they concluded with a 45-23 blowout win over then No. 22 ranked UTSA. 

This North Texas team has quite the ground game. They averaged 246 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry for the season, but it only got better. They put up over 320 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, including 340 against the Roadrunners in the finale. 

I like good running teams in bowl games, as it's a lot easier for them offensively to get back into a rhythm after not playing for an extended stretch. Miami (OH) wasn't great against the run and in their last game they gave up 303 rushing yards to Kent State. Give me the Mean Green +2.5! 

40* (CFB) Frisco Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St -2.5) 

I'm going to lay the 2.5 with the Aztecs against the Roadrunners in the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday. This is a big game for San Diego State, as they try to win 12 games for the first time in school history. A mark they wanted to hit in the Mountain West title game, but weren't able to because a rash of Covid spread through the team. While there weren't a ton of key guys out, the Aztecs weren't able to get any good reps in practice in that week. 

On the flip side of this, UTSA seems to be satisfied with what they have accomplished, finishing the season 12-1, capped by a 49-41 win over WKU in the C-USA title game. Multiple guys are sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL, including one of the nation's best backs in Sincere McCormick. 

I also like the matchup here. UTSA is still going to want to run the football without McCormick and this is not the defense to run against. San Diego State only gave up 78 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. They were also great at defending mobile quarterbacks and getting out of the pocket and scrambling is a huge part of Roadrunners' quarterback Frank Harris' game. 

It's going to take a monster game from Harris for UTSA to put points on the board. I'll take my chances he doesn't have a monster a game and lay the short number here. Give me the Aztecs -2.5! 

50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3) 

I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well. 

Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3! 

40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Panthers +11)

As difficult as it is to back the Panthers given how much I've been burned by Carolina this season and the ridiculous rate at which these big favorites have been covering the last two weeks, there's no way I'm not playing the Panthers at this price. 

It's not so much that I'm really big on Carolina. More than anything, this is a play against the Bills. I want to start out by saying, I was on this Buffalo downfall from the start. With last week's loss to the Bucs we at worst will push our win total bet on the Bills UNDER 11. 

I'd love to see it here, but I think we will get it for next week when they go to Foxborough to face the Patriots. Speaking of that game, it's part of why I like this spot for the Panthers. Buffalo is coming off two massive games with that monster game on deck. Two weeks ago they hosted the Pats on MNF in a wind storm and last week went on the road and lost a heartbreaker to Tom Brady and the Bucs 27-33 in OT. 

Also, while I think the experts can see the flaws in this Buffalo team, the betting public still thinks they are great and in their minds this is the perfect bounceback spot for the Bills against a struggling Panthers team. Which is why I think we are seeing the inflated number here. I also think the books really want to push the envelope on these big favorites given how many have covered the last two Sunday's. 

I know Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have been a mess the last two games, but it's been more about turnovers than anything, as they have coughed it up 3 times in each of their last two games. 

I'm banking that we will see some regression in that area this week against a Bills defense that has regressed a ton of late and forced just 2 turnovers total in their last 4 games combined. 

I also love the matchup for the Panthers defense. Carolina's ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a mere 177.7 ypg. It's really a nightmare matchup for this Bills offense that really has no desire to run the football. Give me the Panthers +11! 

40* (NFL) -Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -3.5) 

As soon I heard that Urban Meyer was being fired from the Jaguars, I couldn't place my bet fast enough on them to cover at home against the Texans on Sunday. I think it's pretty safe to say that Meyer had lost that lockerroom and I'm not really sure he ever had it. There's no question that he rubbed several of the players and coaches the wrong way. 

It's going to be like a breath of fresh air for this team to go to work and not have to see his face. I think it's going to translate into by far the best showing the Jags will have had this season and lucky for them they get to take out their frustration on a horrible team like the Texans. Houston is a team the Jags could have beat and covered against despite Meyers. 

Keep in mind not only have the Jags had to deal with all of Myers crap, they have played a brutal schedule. Give me Jacksonville -3.5! 

50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report. 

Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1! 

40* (CFB) - LA Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah State +7.5) 

Give me the Aggies at +7.5! I'm shocked that we are getting this good a price on Utah State in this game. No one was picking Utah State to even sniff the Mountain West title game, let alone win it. There was optimism that first year head coach Blake Anderson, who did a remarkable job at Arkansas State before landing here, would get this program headed in the right direction. 

But those expectations were a bit limited given they did go just 1-5 in the shortened 2020 season. Anderson has clearly worked his magic quicker than anyone could have imagined, but a big reason for that is he was able to convince Logan Bonner to transfer alongside him from Ark St. Bonner had thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio with the Red Wolves. He threw for 3,560 yards with 36-11 TD-INT ratio this year. 

I think there's all kinds of motivation for the Aggies to end their season with a win over a Power 5 opponent. I also think they don't for a second think they should be catching this many points. 

Oregon State had a great year and were in the Pac-12 race right up to the end. I just think you got to take that with a grain of salt given how down that conference was this year. This is also a Pac-12 conference that has not showed well in bowl games of late. 

It certainly doesn't feel like it's as big a deal for Oregon State to play in this game. I mean they had to be hoping for a little more than getting a non-Power 5 opponent on the first Saturday of bowl season. 

I also think the Beavers not having stud linebacker Avery Roberts is a bigger deal than is getting made. Roberts not only led the Beavers with 123 tackles (next best 78), he led the entire Pac-12 conference. Give me Utah State +7.5! 

50* (CFB) - New Mexico Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (UTEP +12.5) 

I will take my chances with UTEP as a 12.5-point dog against the Bulldogs. I'm not big on C-USA as a whole, but I got to take a shot here at this price with the Miners. This has been a breakout season for UTEP, who finished 4-4 in C-USA and 7-5 overall. 

It's just the 3rd bowl game they will attend since 2005 and the first since 2014. The Miners haven't won a bowl game since they took out Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl. It's also the first ever bowl game for head coach Dana Dimel, who deserves a ton of credit for getting this team to where it is. He took over a 0-12 team and went just 2-22 his first two years on the job. 

It's only about a 4-hour drive from El Paso to Albuquerque, so I would think there's plenty of fans who will make the trip. 

I don't think there's near the excitement surrounding this game for the Bulldogs. Fresno State had a really good season. They won 9 games and showed out in non-conference losing by just 7 on the road to then No. 11 Oregon and beating then No. 13 UCLA on the road. If not for a slip up in Hawaii (lost 27-27) they would have won the West and played in the MWC title game. 

You got to think they not only wanted to play in a better bowl than this, but also play a bigger program. What do they get out of beating UTEP? Not enough to keep head coach Kalen DeBoer around, as he left to be the new head coach at Washington. Also gone is offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, which I think is the bigger story here. Kirby Moore, who is the wide receivers coach, will call plays for the first time on Saturday. 

There's also no guarantee that starting quarterback Jake Haener is going to play. He said he was going to transfer to Washington to stick with DeBoer, then changed his mind. It's interesting that instead of just saying the job is Heaner's given he got the team to this game, they aren't going to announce a starter until kickoff. Two freshman are on the depth chart behind Haener. 

Even if he plays, I think that Fresno State offense will be out of sync with a new play-caller and this UTEP defense is sneaky good. The Miners only gave up 5.1 yards/play, allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and a mere 54% completion rate. Give me UTEP +12.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Appalachian State -3)

I really think the books have made a mistake here not making the Mountaineers a bigger favorite in this matchup. No disrespect to the Hilltoppers, who had one of the more remarkable turnarounds on offense you will see.

Last year WKU was one of the worst offenses in the country averaging just 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg. This year they put up 45.5 ppg and 528.4 ypg. The second best marks of every FBS team. Only Ohio State finished ahead of them.

For those that don't know, this big turnaround happened when they brought in Houston Baptists offensive coordinator, starting quarterback and three wide receivers. 

It's a great story and makes their games a lot of fun to watch, but there's a reason this team finished 8-5 with those ridiculous offensive numbers. The defense struggled to contain teams with a pulse offensively. We saw it in their loss to UTSA in the C-USA title game, where they put up 41 points and 568 yards and lost the game 41-48. You also got to take that final score with a grain of salt, as they railed 42-13 to the Roadrunners midway thru the 3rd quarter. 

Appalachian State is who they have been for years. They are a well coached team that wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides. They finished the year a very respectable 10-3 with their only loss outside of conference coming by 2-points to Miami and both losses inside to a very very good Louisiana-Lafayette team. One they played much tougher in the Sun Belt title game than they did in the regular-season, which I also think speaks to a typical App State team that just keeps getting better as the season goes on. Might have something to do with why the Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 in bowl games. 

I think the Mountaineers will be able to do as they please offensively and really wear down that Western Kentucky defense and I like their pass rush and secondary to make enough plays to get off the field and really make the Hilltoppers have to press the issue offensively. 

One last thing to note, in App State's 6-game bowl win streak, each of the last 3 have come against teams out of C-USA. Give me the Mountaineers -3!

40* (CFB) - Bahamas Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Toledo -10) 

I don't think a lot of people realize how good this Toledo team is playing to close out the year. Everyone took notice when they played Notre Dame tough early in the year, but they lost the next week at home to Colorado State and then lost 3 of 5 to open up MAC play, all but eliminating them from the MAC title race in early November. 

A loss is a loss, but all 3 of their defeats in MAC play could have easily been wins. They lost by 2 to Northern Illinois, by 3 in OT to Central Michigan and by 3 to Eastern Michigan. 

One of the big things that transpired over the course of the season was the emergence of freshman quarterback Dequan Finn who has taken over the job under center from Carter Stanley. Not only does Finn provide a threat to run the ball (418 yards, 8 TDs), he completed 60% of his attempts with a 16-1 TD-INT ratio. 

Middle Tennessee is down to their 4th string QB and it's not by choice. Not a good sign for a team that struggled to run the ball, averaging just 120 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry. 

Toledo can build a lead here and keep it, as they provide a potent ground attack that averages 194 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Give me the Rockets -10! 

40* (NFL) - Rams/Cardinals MNF Vegas INSIDER (Rams +2.5) 

I will take my chances with the Rams as a slim 2.5-point road dog against the Cardinals. I'll admit it's not easy going against Arizona at home laying less than a field goal, but it just feels too good to be true. Everyone is going to be on the Cardinals, which has me taking the Rams. 

I do like this Rams team and they are do for a real signature type of win. They also will be playing with revenge after getting embarrassed 37-20 at home by Arizona back in Week 4. Give me LA +2.5! 

50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13) 

I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action. 

Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game. 

Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps. 

I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5! 

40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Browns -2) 

I just really think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland in this spot. Not only do the Browns need this game to stay in the race for the AFC North title, they desperately need a win here just to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC. 

Not that motivation was going to be an issue, but this one will mean a little more to Cleveland, as they went into their bye last week off a hard fought 16-10 loss at Baltimore. While the Browns have had two full weeks to get ready for their shot at revenge, Baltimore had to play at Pittsburgh this past Sunday and it didn't go as planned with the Ravens losing 19-20 on a failed 2-pt attempt at the end of regulation. 

Not only is the spot bad for Baltimore, but this is a banged up Ravens team. They got 17 guys on IR with 7 of those being starters and 3 of them former Pro Bowl players. They have really been decimated in the secondary, which just lost starter Marlon Humphrey in the loss to Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been a mess and it's shown in the recent struggles of Lamar, who has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 24 times in their last 6 games. 

I know this game still comes down to the play of Baker Mayfield and the Browns ability to get the ground game going, which is no sure thing. However, I just think the extra rest, especially for Mayfield will pay off in a big home win. Give me the Browns -2! 

40* (NFL) Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Football Team +4.5) 

I have to roll the dice and take Washington as a 4.5-point home dog in Sunday's division showdown with the Cowboys. The Football Team has really came out of nowhere to turn their season around with 4 straight wins. All of it starting when they came out of their bye and beat the Tom Brady and the Bucs 29-19 as a 10-point dog. 

All 4 of their wins during this run have came as a dog and I think you got to ride this team in this underdog role as long as you can.

You could argue their turnaround started before the bye, as they could have easily won at Green Bay and at Denver in the two games leading up to the extra week off. 

The running game has really sparked the offense and the defense is playing exceptionally well right now. Washington has allowed 21 or fewer points in 5 straight. 

As for the Cowboys, they always are inflated when it comes to the spread because the public just can't help themselves. I just don't like what I've seen out of Dallas of late. The defense has to force turnovers to be any good and the offense has not been in sync since Dak got hurt. Give me the Football Team +4.5! 

40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Jaguars +8.5) 

As difficult as it is to go into a game needing the Jags to play well, I have to take my chances with Jacksonville at 8.5 against the Titans. 

I just don't understand what Tennessee has done besides go on their bye week that makes you think this team is going to look any different than it did prior to the bye. It's just not the same team without Derek Henry to really dictate the game. Not only can the Titans not run the ball, defenses no longer have to load the box to try and stop him. 

I know the numbers aren't great and it hasn't resulted in a lot of close games, but the Jaguars defense isn't as bad as what people think. They haven't allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 290 yards in 6 straight games and this is a stretch where they have faced some decent teams and QBs. 

If we can just get a little something out of that Jags offense, they might just win this game outright. Give me Jacksonville +8.5! 

50* (CFB) - Army/Navy MAX UNIT Top Play (Navy +7.5) 

I not only think Navy is going to cover the 7.5, I think they have a really good shot here of winning this game outright. This is not as lopsided a matchup as the records for these two teams would suggest with Army coming in at 8-3 and Navy at 3-8. 

Navy has by far played the tougher schedule. They caught zero breaks in the AAC this year, having to play Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF, Tulsa and ECU. They also played Notre Dame in non-conference. Some of the losses early were ugly, but 3 of their last 5 defeats came by 7 or less. 

Army played two Power 5 teams in Wisconsin and Wake Forest. Their other games against FBS teams were against the likes of Georgia St, WKU, UConn, Miami (OH), Ball St, Air Force, UMass and Liberty. 

You also got to love the fact that Navy is playing for revenge in this matchup. Not to mention the value of getting 7.5 points in a game where the total is a mere 34 points. Give me the Midshipmen +7.5! 

50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3) 

I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers. 

As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have  a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot. 

I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3! 

40* (NFL) Pats/Bills MNF Vegas INSIDER (Patriots +3) 

I've been on this Patriots bandwagon for a while now. I bet them to win the AFC East before the season even started. I can't help myself but to take them as a dog against the Bills on Monday Night Football. 

New England is a matchup nightmare for this Buffalo team that can't run the ball and just aren't a very physical team. The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league and are one of the best running teams on the other side. 

If that wasn't going to be hard enough for the Bills to overcome, Mother Nature is going to make it even harder. The conditions for this game are going to be brutal with winds pushing 30 mph and a chance of rain. That's not ideal for a team that can't run the ball. Give me the Patriots +3! 

40* (NFL) Broncos/Chiefs SNF Vegas INSIDER (Broncos +10)

As difficult as it is to bet against Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye, I just can't pass up on the value with Denver at +10. No question Kansas City has played better football during their 4-game win streak, but not all is quite right with this team. 

Outside of that game against the Raiders, where Mahomes and the Chiefs looked like the offense of years past, this KC offense has not really done a lot during the win streak. If this offense was truly back to its old form, they would have easily put up 30+ on that Cowboys defense at home. 

Now they face a really good Denver defense who not only will play that 2-high look that has been giving this Chiefs offense trouble, but also has some nice talent on that side of the ball. 

Also, while the Chiefs defense has been playing much better, Teddy Bridgewater and that Denver offense are going to be just fine in this game. Give me the Broncos +10! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5) 

I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight. 

While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team. 

On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal. 

Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards. 

That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. 

I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Big Ten Championship ATS SHOCKER (Michigan -10.5) 

I grew up in Iowa and a Hawkeyes fan, so I follow this team closely. As much as I would love for Iowa to stick it to Harbaugh and ruin Michigan's shot at making the 4-team playoff, I just don't see it happening. 

Iowa's only hope of keeping this game remotely close is by forcing turnovers and that's just not something you can bank on. Even with how good the Hawkeyes have been in that department. Michigan is also a team that takes great care of the ball. Wolverines haven't turned it over three times in any game this season and in 10 of their 12 games they had 1 or fewer turnovers. 

I also think that there's the perception that Michigan's offensive and defensive lines won't be near as dominant as they were against Ohio State against this Iowa team. Yes. Ferentz coached teams are always solid in the trenches, but the Hawks are not elite on either side of the ball. 

I just don't see how Iowa's offense is going to be able to do enough to keep this game close and if they get behind early, this could get ugly. Give me the Wolverines -10.5! 

50* (CFB) - Alabama/Georgia MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -6) 

I can't help myself but to lay less than a touchdown with Georgia in the SEC title game. I got nothing but respect for Alabama and what they have been able to accomplish under Saban, but much like the LSU team that had Joe Burrow, this Georgia team is just a step above the rest of college football. 

I just think if it didn't say Alabama on the jersey, this line would be pushing double-digits and I'm not sure that would be enough. It's just a nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide, who are not anything close to what we have seen in the past on the defensive side of the ball and they got no ability to run the ball. 

Bryce Young is great, but he's going to have to throw it 50+ times for Alabama to even have a shot and I got big concerns with the Crimson Tide's pass protection after how bad the struggled against the blitz against Auburn. 

No one seems to be talking enough about how Alabama was being shutout through 3 quarters in a game they had to win if they wanted any shot at getting back to the college football playoff. I just think the Georgia defense is going to be too much to overcome. Give me the Bulldogs -6! 

40* (CFB) - Big 12 Championship VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St -5.5) 

I'm going to lay the 5.5 with Oklahoma State as they face off against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. The game will be played on the Dallas Cowboys home field at AT&T Stadium. 

I'm a little bit surprised we aren't seeing a heavier influx of money coming in on the Cowboys, but that's a good thing in my opinion. I would be a lot more hesitant to back Oklahoma State if this was a big public play. 

It feels like to me that there's just a lack of trust and belief in this Cowboys team and a lot of people aren't wanting to back them off that huge win over rival Oklahoma last week. I just don't think this is the spot to fade a team in that scenario. There's just no way Oklahoma State is looking past this opportunity. Not with what's happened to them in the past. 

To me that's really what this handicap comes down to. Whether or not we get the best the Cowboys have to offer, because their best is more than enough to beat this Baylor team by at least a touchdown. 

These two teams played in the regular season and while it looks like it was a competitive game with Oklahoma State only winning 24-14 at home, it wasn't nearly that close. The Cowboys had a 401 to 280 edge in total yards, 24-10 advantage in first downs and had the ball nearly 10 minutes more in time of possession. The only reason it was close is because OK State was -3 in the turnover department. 

Not that I wouldn't be fine with the same score on Saturday, I do think there's a strong likelihood that the Cowboys offense plays better than they did in the first meeting. I can't say the same for the Baylor offense. Not with how good this Oklahoma State defense is against the run and how depended the Bears offense is on being able to run the ball. Give me Oklahoma State -5! 

50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1) 

I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up. 

I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game. 

I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1! 

50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) 

I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. 

I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. 

As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3) 

I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. 

So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week. 

I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting. 

Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game. 

On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football. 

Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt. 

The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary.

Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy. 

I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3! 

40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5) 

I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad. 

The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win. 

The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5! 

40* (CFB) Oklahoma/Oklahoma St Bedlam MASSACRE (Oklahoma St -4) 

I usually try to avoid taking a spread that I think is so obvious that something has to be wrong. I just can't help myself with Oklahoma State only being asked to lay 4 at home to a Oklahoma team that is on it's heels. 

The big reason for me not letting the line scare me away, is the fact that this is an Oklahoma State team that just hasn't gotten the respect or the oodsmakers this year. For them to be 10-1 and playing as well as they have, you think this team is happy about being ranked No. 7 in the country. I'm sure in their mind they feel like they should be No. 4 and at least in the Top 5. 

Not very often you find a team playing this well that continues to have to play with a chip on their shoulder. As for the books, Oklahoma State has covered 9 in a row and most of them haven't ended even close to the number. 

Either the books aren't buying what they are seeing or the money just hasn't come in on Oklahoma State enough for them to inflate the lines. Regardless, it has them undervalued here. 

Say what you want about the offense. It's nothing that wows you. They don't really do anything great. What they do is take care of the ball (3 turnovers in their last 6 games). They also are a solid running team. 

It's been more than enough with the way they are playing defensively. If a team only gives up 23 points in a game, most see that as a really good game. Oklahoma State has allowed 23 points in their last 4 games combined. 

Oklahoma's offense has looked lost their last two games and it feels like they don't know who should be playing quarterback. I'm willing to bet it doesn't just magically click for them against this defense. 

If the defense can force some turnovers and the offense can avoid settling for field goals early, I think this could get out of hand. Give me Oklahoma State -4! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (W Virginia -15) 

I think we are getting a gift here with West Virginia only being asked to lay 15 against Kansas. To me. This is a sell high spot on the Jayhawks. In Kansas' last two games they have went on the road and beat Texas 57-56 as a 31-point dog and barely lose 28-31 at TCU this past week as 21-point favorites. 

If you just think about the fact that W Virginia went on the road and beat TCU 29-17, this line should be well into the 20's. 

It's one thing if a team has a couple of games like this after something has drastically changed (coaching change, injured player coming back, new starting QB, etc.). I just don't think there's anything different from this Kansas team and the one we saw go 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their previous 9 games. 

They beat Texas in the worst possible spot for the Longhorns, who were delivered the knockout blow on their season with a loss to ISU the week before. They also got TCU in a big letdown spot, as the Horned Frogs were coming off that emotional upset win against rival Baylor in the first game after their coach had been fired. 

I know West Virginia is just 5-6, but they could easily be sitting here at 7-4. They had multiple close losses early in the year that just didn't go their way in the 4th quarter. Big thing here is they need this win to get bowl eligible. 

What motivation does Kansas have? It's senior day? I guess. I just think senior day can get the crowd more involved, which the players feed off of. It's not going to be any more electric than a normal home game for the Jayhawks. Give me West Virginia -15! 

40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS CASH COW (Wisconsin -7) 

I just can't help myself but to lay the 7 with the Badgers in this game. If this game plays out like I see it, the Badgers will cover this game easy. 

This Wisconsin team might be the best team that hasn't been in the playoff talk. That's only because the Badgers were all but eliminated from that conversation when they started 1-3. I just think ever since that start this team has been undervalued. They have won 7 straight and are 5-2 ATS. 

They aren't just squeaking by the numbers in those covers, the books haven't been close in a lot of their games. They won by 24 as a 12.5-point favorite at Illinois, by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite at Purdue and by 20 as a 3-point home favorite against Iowa. 

I just think this is a team on a mission and one that is dying for the chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Minnesota is all that is in their way. I expect the best version of the Badgers on Saturday. 

They did fail to cover as 10-point favorites at home against Nebraska last week, but that line was a bit inflated. The Cornhuskers are a much better team than their record would suggest. 

I think it's a Nebraska team that is certainly better than this Minnesota team. This is also a matchup nightmare for the Gophers with how good Wisconsin is against the run. Sunstaining drives is going to be a challenge and scoring will not be easy. I'm not saying they won't score a lot, but I don't think Wisconsin needs to put up 30+ for us to cover this easy. Give me the Badgers -7! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Oregon St +7) 

I'll gladly take the 7-points with Oregon State on the road in the Civil War against rival Oregon. I know that with a win the Ducks can secure the Pac-12 North title, but I'm not buying it's a real motivator. 

Prior to last week's 38-7 loss at Utah, Oregon was in a position that if they won out, they would have made the 4-team playoff. As great as it is to win a conference title, it's nothing compared to getting to that 4-team playoff and having a shot to win it all. I just don't think Oregon is going to be able to pick themselves up off the mat. 

On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that has made some big strides this year and they aren't going to care in the slightest about the situation that the Ducks find themselves in. They are going to be extremely motivated to not just keep it close, but to win the game outright. Something I strongly believe they can and will do on Saturday. Give me the Beavers +7! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Penn State -1) 

The last week of the regular-season is all about motivation and it's 100% why you are seeing Penn State as a 1-point road favorite against the Spartans. The situation that we find Michigan State in this week is one of my favorite angles this time of year. I want to fade teams who just had all their hopes and dreams crushed the week before. 

It's pretty safe to say that the Spartans fall into that category. Going into last week's game against Ohio State, Michigan State was in the running to not just win the Big Ten East, a win in that game and they would be in line to make the college football playoff. 

They go from everything you could ever dream of being on the line to having absolutely nothing but pride to play for in a pretty meaningless game against Penn State. There's the exception to this every now and then, but you can't pick and choose who you think that will be. You just fade the team in this spot. Give me Penn State -1! 

40* (NCAAF) No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Arkansas -14.5) 

I got no problem laying the 14.5-points with the Razorbacks at home against the Tigers on Friday. I think a lot of people might be hesitant to lay more than two touchdowns with Arkansas in this spot, as they will be concerned of a letdown for the Razorbacks after a hard fought loss to Alabama. 

I'm not saying that won't be the case, but I feel pretty confident in Arkansas not letting that loss to the Crimson Tide carry over to this game. Some senior days mean more than others and I think it's really big for this Razorbacks' senior class. These are the guys that really stuck with the program and saw it get back to respectability this year. 

I also think there's motivation here for Arkansas to snap a 5-game losing streak to Missouri and finish the season 3-0 in their 3 trophy games. 

If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Razorbacks, they should have no problem winning this game by 20+ points. Don't be fooled by Missouri's win over a Florida team that quit on their head coach last week. This is a bad Tigers football team and one that figures to have a horrible time keeping Arkansas out of the end zone. 

Missouri is giving up 36.3, 446.9 ypg and 6.5 yards/play in SEC games this year. They are especially bad against the run, giving up 235 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of this Razorbacks' offense, which is averaging 222 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground. 

On the flip side of this, Arkansas has a pretty good run defense and with how Missouri's passing game has struggled in the 2nd half of the season, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Razorbacks -14.5! 

40* (CFB) Black Friday ATS NO-BRAINER (UTEP +13.5) 

I not only think UTEP will cover the 13.5 in Friday's game at UAB, I think the Miners are a live dog in this one. This is an absolutely a horrible spot for UAB. The Blazers come off a crushing 31-34 loss on the road to undefeated UTSA. UAB gave up a 1-yard TD pass with 3 seconds on the clock to lose that game. It was a crazy play, as there was a bad snap and the pass was tipped before falling into the arms of Oscar Cardenas. 

Had UAB won that game, they would have pulled even with UTSA in the West Division of C-USA and simply would have needed to beat UTEP to play in the conference title game. With the loss they are no longer able to catch the Roadrunners for the division crown. 

Even with it being senior day for the Blazers, I think it's asking a lot for them to show up with the right mindset to beat a quality team like UTEP. It would be one thing if this was an up and coming team, but this will mark the first time in 4 years that UAB will not be involved in the C-USA title game. 

On the flip side, I know you could argue that UTEP is in the same boat with nothing really to play for, but I don't see it that way. The Miners are in the midst of one of their best seasons in quite some time. They are 7-4 with a 4-3 record in conference play. They have a shot to win 8 games for the first time since 2005 and their first winning record in C-USA play since 2014. 

This is a team that had gone just 5-39 over their previous 4 seasons. They had a win total for the season of just 3 and conference only win total of 1. 

Needless to say I think UTEP is going to have no problem getting up for this game. They don't care about the situation for UAB. All they see is a chance to end the regular-season with a huge road win against a team that has really been the class of this conference the last few years. Give me the Miners +13.5!

50* (CFB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -1) 

There's lines that stink and then there's this one. The betting public is going to think the bookmakers have lost their mind, making a 3-8 Nebraska team a favorite against an Iowa team that is 9-2 and ranked No. 16 in the country. Especially with the news that the Cornhuskers will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. 

Anytime a line looks to be off this much, I instantly look to fade the obvious side, but I was going to be on Nebraska regardless in this one. 

No question this has not been the season that the Cornhuskers expected, but this has a team that has taken some really gut wrenching blows and continued to come out and play their hearts out. 

Given how much these two teams hate each other and the fact that Iowa has won 6 straight (last 3 decided by 6 or less), I see Nebraska treating this like it's their bowl game. 

I also love the matchup even without Martinez. This Iowa offense is one of the worst in the FBS and while it hasn't translated into a lot of wins, this Nebraska defense has played extremely well this year. I think they can do enough offensively with Logan Smothers, who is a talented freshman, to get the win at home. Give me Nebraska -1! 

50* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Miss St Egg Bowl MASSACRE (Mississippi St -2)

Most are going to look at this line an think the wrong team is favored and will just blindly back Ole Miss. They will completely overlook that all the action is coming in on the Rebels and yet this line is moving in favor of Mississippi State. 

It only makes me like the Bulldogs more, as I not only think they cover the short number, but put it on their in-state rivals in the Egg Bowl. 

While it's hard to say that Ole Miss isn't playing well when they have gone 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last 7 games, but I don't think it's the same Rebels team that we saw to start the year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball. 

In their last 4 games, Ole Miss is only averaging 26.8 ppg. That's after they put up 31 or more in 6 of their first 7 games, eclipsing 40 points in 4 of those games. 

Now that offense has to face a pretty good Bulldogs defense that is only giving up 25.0 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 5.4 yards/play. Everyone thinks Ole Miss is this pass happy offense, but they really want to run the ball and that's going to be a challenge against a Miss St defense that only gives up 3.3 yards/carry. 

I know the Rebels defense has been playing well of late, but they haven't exactly faced the toughest offenses during this stretch. I think they could revert back to their old ways here and really struggle to get off the field. Give me Mississippi State -2!

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACtion NO-BRAINER (Ball St -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Cardinals winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Bulls. Not only do I think Ball State is the better team, but they should be the much more motivated team. 

The Cardinals come in at 5-6 and need to win this game to become bowl eligible. It's also going to be senior night for Ball State. 

Buffalo's hopes of making a bowl game came to an end in last week's crushing 27-33 OT loss at home at Northern Illinois. Bulls look like they were on their way to potentially pulling off the upset, but quarterback Matt Myers fumbled the ball away on third and goal from the 1-yard line in the Bulls first possession of OT and the defense gave up a 25-yard run on the Huskies first crack at OT to put it away. 

I just think it's going to be tough for Buffalo to get themselves up for this one after such an emotional setback last week. Let's also not overlook that while Ball State is just 3-4 in the MAC, their 4 losses have come against 4 of the better teams in the MAC in Toledo, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Give me the Cardinals -6.5! 

40* (NFL) - Giants/Bucs MNF Vegas INSIDER (Giants +11.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Giants catching double-digits on the road against Tampa Bay. It just feels like the books are giving Tom Brady and the Bucs the same treatment this year that they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs last year after they won the Super Bowl. They know the public is going to back them no matter what and are inflating the lines so much that they you got to take the other side. 

It would be one thing to lay this big number with Tampa Bay if they were at full strength, but they are still without one of their top weapons offensively in Antonio Brown and even if Gronk comes back, he's been out so long that he's unlikely to have a big role if he does play. I also think the loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea isn't getting near the attention it should. He's the reason that the Bucs have been so good against the run and I think his absence has a negative ripple effect on the rest of the defense. 

The Giants also got a lot of injuries they are dealing with, but they are going to be the much more rested team coming off of their bye. I also think this New York defense is very underrated. They have given up 20 or fewer in each of their last 3 games and have been forcing a ton of turnovers (10 takeaways in their last 5 games). Give me the Giants +11.5!