100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5)

The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +7)

I'll gladly take a touchdown with the Texans on Sunday against the Seahawks. The fact that Seattle comes in having won 3 straight and the perceived home field advantage, has them overvalued in my mind. Two of those wins came against the Giants and Colts and the other was a victory over the Rams they had no business winning. The only other win is against the 49ers. Houston is playing with all kinds of confidence behind rookie QB Deshaun Watson and he's guided the Texans offense to 33 or more points in 4 straight games. It probably won't be that easy against the Seahawks, but I think Houston has the easier time moving the ball. The Texans are coming off a bye and have the talent up front to overpower a weak Seahawks offensive line. Give me Houston +7! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (49ers +13)

This feels like a good spot to jump off the Eagles bandwagon. That public was all over the Eagles in their blowout win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football and will be quick to back them here against a 49ers team they love to fade. I think this will be a difficult spot for Philadelphia to show up with their “A” game. They hear what everyone is saying about them and probably feel like the 49ers are no match for them. That’s when you not only let a team stick around, but lose outright.Let’s also not discount the fact that the Eagles are playing on a short week of rest after their game on Monday Night Football and their first full game without the services of star left tackle Jason Peters. That’s a massive blow, as elite left tackles are hard to come by and chances are the offense won’t be the same from here on out. Give me the 49ers +13! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -10.5)

The Colts are a complete mess right now and have been atrocious on the road. Indy has played 3 games away from home and all 3 have coming by at least 14 points. Last week they got shutout at home 27-0 by the Jaguars, as Brissett was sacked 10-times. This Bengals defense has been playing  well all season. They come in 5th in the league in total defense, giving up just 289 ypg. I know the Bengals offense has struggled, but the Colts are giving up 31.7 ppg on the season and 42.7 ppg when on the road. Sitting at 2-4 this is not a game the Bengals can afford to look past and I expect them to lay it on the Colts in one of the more lopsided finals from Sunday. Give me Cincinnati -10.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Clemson -14) 

I know this looks like a big number for the Tigers to be laying against a Georgia Tech team that has played well so far this season. I just don’t think it’s going to be near enough for the Yellow Jackets to cover. Rarely do you want to be on the trendy underdog pick and that’s exactly what we have here with over 60% of the bets coming in on the Yellow Jackets.

I think it’s going to get ugly in a hurry Saturday night. This isn’t the first prime time night game on Saturday that Clemson has played. The previous two have been over shortly after they started and those were on the road. The Tigers had a 33-7 lead in a 47-21 win at Louisville and were up 24-3 going into the 4th quarter at Virginia Tech.

I think the only way Georgia Tech makes a game of this is if Clemson were to not show up to play and that’s just not going to happen after the loss to Syracuse. This is a statement game for the Tigers and a really bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets.

It’s no secret that the Yellow Jackets need to be able to run the ball to have success with the triple-option attack. Clemson has elite talent on the defensive line that’s going to make life miserable for Georgia Tech. Keep in mind they got a lot of the same guys back from last year’s unit that held the Yellow Jackets to 124 total yards (only allowed 95 rushing yards on 38 attempts). That’s going to keep Georgia Tech from eating up the clock with long drives and allow the Tigers offense to go to work and they won’t leave any doubt after losing to the Orange.

The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing an elite defense that is giving up 310 or fewer yards/game and the Tigers are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team that averages 200+ rushing yards/game. Give me the Tigers -14! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -4.5) 

I know the Boilermakers laid an egg last week on the road against Rutgers, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm and Nebraska might be one of the most overrated.

If you look at the box score from last week’s game against the Scarlet Knights, you will see the better team lost that game. Purdue had 474 total yards to Rutgers 217 and a 25 to 8 edge in first downs. This is a team that on the season is outgaining opponents by nearly 17 yards/game. A big improvement over last year when they were outgained on average by 100 yards/game.

I’m well aware that the Cornhuskers are coming off a bye. I just don’t think it’s going to matter. Mike Riley isn’t a good fit for this program and it’s only a matter of time before he’s out the door. That’s a tough situation for everyone involved and my two-cents is that it will be UCF head coach Scott Frost in Lincoln for the 2018 season.

What can’t be overlooked here is the time this game is being played. Night games come with a whole different atmosphere and more times than not it’s a big advantage for the home team. I expect that to be the case here, as this is as excited the Boilermaker fan base has been about their football program in over a decade.

It’s also not just motivation and coaching that has me like Purdue in this spot. I love the matchup here. Purdue’s offense is better than people think. They had the fluke game last week where they had just 12 points on nearly 500 yards and a combined 19 against two of the best defenses in the country in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nebraska ranks 70th or worse against both the run and the pass.

I also don’t think people realize how good this Purdue defense has been. The Boilermakers are 49th in the country, allowing just 369 ypg. That’s not even the most impressive stat. They are allowing a mere 19.3 ppg against teams that are scoring on average 31.8 ppg. Give me the Boilermakers -4.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Indiana -4.5)

I think the value here is clearly with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against Maryland. You could make a pretty strong argument that Indiana is the best 3-4 team in the country. Their 4 losses have come against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State, who are a combined 24-4 on the season.

They were also competitive in all of those games. They had 2nd half leads against everyone but Penn State and only trailed the Nittany Lions by 14 at the half. Indiana has also taken care of business against lesser opponents, winning 34-17 at Virginia and 52-17 against Georgia Southern.

Maryland started the season with that big road win over Texas, but are just 2-4 since and have lost 3 straight. The Terps looked to be in great shape with two dynamic quarterbacks, but both suffered season-ending injuries and while 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager has been serviceable, he’s also completing just 49.3% of his attempts and lacks the running threat that made the top two guys on the depth chart so good.

I just don’t see the Terrapins being able to generate enough offense here against a very good Indiana defense. I’ve already mentioned some of the elite teams that Indiana has played and that only makes it that much more impressive that they are sitting 29th in the country in total defense, allowing just 342 yards/game. In comparison, Maryland is 106th giving up 439 yards/game.

There is a slight concern here with the fact that Indiana is coming off such a heartbreaking loss, but I think the fact that they are still searching for their first Big Ten win of the season is going to have them locked in from the start in this one. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5!

100* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Washington -17) 

I absolutely love this spot for the Huskies. Washington had won 5 straight by at least 27 points before that shocking 7-13 loss to Arizona State. With the Sun Devils crushing Utah on the road last week, that doesn't look so bad. I think more than anything the Huskies were caught sleeping and ASU came to play at home in a night game. 

I look for Washington to bounce back in a big way at home against the Bruins. UCLA is not a good team and while they come in off what looks like an impressive 31-14 win over Oregon, the Ducks are complete mess right now with Herbert sidelined. Clearly if they only put up 14 on this horrible Bruins defense. 

Washington defense was still top notch in the loss to Arizona State and have not allowed more than 14 points in a game this season. UCLA hasn't seen a defense anywhere close to as talented as the Huskies and I think they struggle to put points on the board. 

As for the Huskies offense, I expect them to put up a big number here, which is why I got no problem laying the 17 points. UCLA has allowed 40+ points in 4 of their 7 games and are giving up an average of 51 ppg on the road. 

All of this and I haven't even mentioned the advantage Washington has coming off a bye. An extra week for Chris Petersen and his staff to get his team ready should have this one over in a hurry. Give me the Huskies -17! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio St -6) 

I’m going to lay the points with the Buckeyes in this one. Ohio State hasn’t suffered too many losses since Urban Meyer took over back in 2012. In fact, they have been beat just 7 times and that includes the earlier loss to Oklahoma. They only time they have suffered multiple losses in the same season is when they have lost their bowl game.

When you rarely lose, you don’t forget about the times you do and that loss to the Nittany Lions last year is fresh in the minds of these Ohio State players. I think the Buckeyes are coming into this contest to make a statement, much like Penn State did this past week against the Wolverines.

You also can’t discount the edge Ohio State has coming off a bye. Meyer is one of the elite coaches in the country and great coaches know how to use that extra time to prepare to their advantage. In his career as a head coach, Meyer’s teams are 24-8 ATS after a bye week.

That just really puts Penn State behind the 8-ball, as they got to somehow find a way to match the intensity they had last week at home against Michigan. Something that’s not easy to do away from home and it’s a spot where James Franklin coached teams have struggled. In his time here with Penn State and with Vanderbilt, teams coached by Franklin are just 2-10 ATS in road games when playing against a top level team that’s won more than 75% of their games.

I just think the home crowd combined with the extra time to prepare is going to make it hard for Penn State to keep this game close. Ohio State has looked like a completely different team since losing to Oklahoma and they have the talent up front to quiet Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley. The Buckeyes are allowing 2.9 yards/carry on the season and that’s against teams that are averaging 5.0 yards/carry. They are also rushing for 1.4 yards/carry more than what their opponent is allowing on average. If the Nittany Lions aren’t careful, this could get ugly. Give me the Buckeyes -6! 

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +14.5) 

I liked Florida even when this line was less than 2 touchdowns, but now that we are getting two touchdowns and the hook, I can't pass up on the value here with the Gators.

I know Georgia has been playing lights out and Florida has been a bit of a mess this year with all the injuries and players getting suspended. You just can't underestimate the underdog in a huge rivalry like this. Last time we had a double-digit favorite in the series was 2014, when Georgia was laying 11.5. Florida won that game 38-20. 

The biggest key here is think the Gators defense can keep the Bulldogs offense in check. For the most part the Bulldogs have been able to just run the ball down the throats of the opposition. The only time they weren't able to was against Notre Dame and they managed just 19 points. I think there's a good chance they keep Georgia under 21 and that means we just need Florida to muster up a mere 7 points to give us a great shot at the cover. Note that the Gators have scored at least 20 in each of the last 4 games in the series. 

While both teams are off a bye, it's worth noting that Florida is 6-1 ATS last 7 when they get two weeks to prepare for the opposition. They are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games when coming off a conference loss by 7 points or less. Give me the Gators +14.5! 

50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (Tulane +11)

I would ride the hot hand and back the Green Wave getting 10.5-points against the Tigers. Tulane didn’t look great early last week at home against USF, but you have to love how this team continued to fight. They turned a 27-point deficit into a 1-score game in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. I think they bring that same fight here against a ranked Memphis team.

With a 6-1 record and win over UCLA, I understand why the Tigers are ranked in the Top 25, but I don’t think this team is one of the 25 best in the country. In fact, Memphis is a few bad breaks away from potentially having a losing record. They got 3 wins by 6-points or less and another by just 8 at home against ULM. The best team they have faced is UCF and they lost by 27 on the road.

I not only think Tulane can keep it close, but an outright win isn’t out of the question. Tulane’s defense didn’t look good against USF, but a lot of that had to do with the play of star quarterback Quinton Flowers and his ability to turn a broken play into a big gain. While Memphis has a quality QB in Riley Ferguson, he doesn’t provide that same threat on the ground.

Ferguson and the Tigers come in with the 10th ranked passing attack at 333.4 ypg, but will face a talented Tulane secondary that ranks 29th against the pass, giving up 190.6 ypg. Keep in mind they are allowing less than 200 yards with giving up 434 yards through the air in one game against Oklahoma.

On the other side of the ball, there’s reason to believe the Green Wave can have success. Tulane has the 12th ranked rushing offense at 266.0 ypg and will be up against a Memphis defense that ranks 109th against the run, allowing 212.7 ypg. Look for the Green Wave to play keep away from the Tigers offense by grinding out long possessions. That should allow them to keep this came close and it makes those points that much more valuable. Give me the Green Wave +11! 

40* DOLPHINS/RAVENS BOOKIE ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens -3) 

I think the perception here is that the Dolphins are better off with Moore as their starter, because of the horrible rep that Cutler gets. If that was the case, Miami wouldn’t have begged Cutler to come out of retirement and made Moore the starter for Week 1. I’m not saying Moore can’t hold the fort down while Cutler is out, I just don’t think the line has been adjusted enough for the injury.

I know the Ravens defense hasn’t been playing well, but I really like this spot for Baltimore’s stop unit. Their biggest problem has been stopping the run. After allowing 100+ to the Vikings they are now dead last in the NFL, giving up 145.3 ypg. They did get back a big part of their run defense in defensive tackle Brandon Williams and I don’t see this unit continuing to play as poorly as they have. It should be able to hold it's own against a Miami offense that is 29th in rushing at just 81.7 ypg.

If the Dolphins can’t get the running game going, this could be a long game for an offense that is also just 30th in passing. For as much flack as the Ravens offense gets for it’s pedestrian numbers, they are averaging more yards/game than Miami.

When you factor in home field advantage, which is absolutely huge in these Thursday night games, and the fact that this feels like a must-win game for the Ravens, I think this is as good a spot as you will find to back Baltimore.

As the head coach of the Ravens, John Harbaugh and his team have gone an impressive 15-4 ATS after a stretch where they failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 and they fall in that spot tonight. Give me Baltimore -3! 

50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals +5.5) 

For as well as the Steelers played against the Chiefs last week, there’s reason to be concerned that they only won by 6-points. Had it not been for what should have been an interception bouncing off a Chief player and into the hands of Antonio Brown, which he ran in for a TD, they actually might have lost that game.

While Le’Veon Bell was fantastic with 179 yards on 32 attempts, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look great and hasn’t really played well in 2017. I think the Steelers offense is in for a long day here against a stingy Cincinnati defense. The Bengals come in ranked 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 262.8 ypg. They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 ppg.

The run defense has been exceptional the past few weeks, which also coincided with return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who missed the first 3 games with a suspension. Cincinnati has allowed just 63.7 ypg in their last 3, holding the Bills strong rushing attack to just 82 yards in their last game. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Bell, but I think he has a hard time getting to 100 yards unless he breaks a big run.

It’s not just the defense that has come alive for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has looked so much better since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. Under Labor the Bengals are averaging 25.0 ppg and 346.3 ypg. Note they scored a combined 9 points and averaged just 258 yards/game under Zampese.

The other big key here is that Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which I believe should have this spread a lot closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The thing is, even though the Bengals are clearly on the rise, Pittsburgh is such a public team the books are going to take advantage of that an inflate the line. Give me the Bengals +5.5! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Dolphins -3) 

It’s not easy to beat the same team in your division twice in the same year. So while the Jets won by 14 at home over Miami in Week 3, I think this turns into a blowout the other way.

I’m still not buying into the Jets being as good as their 3-3 record would indicate. Outside of their win over the Dolphins at home, they beat the Browns on the road and snuck out an overtime win against the Jaguars at home. Sure they played New England tough, but that was at home. Outside of 3-point win at Cleveland, the road hasn’t been kind to New York, which lost by 9 at Buffalo in Week 1 and by 25 at Oakland in Week 2. Adding to this, is the fact that the Jets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record.

I also think this is a big letdown spot for the Jets. They put everything they had into beating New England, who they despise. A loss that has to be tough to swallow given they were up 14-0, outgained the Patriots 408-375 and turned it over 3 times. Those are the kind of defeats that can be difficult to bounce back from, especially when going up against a team they beat without much problem just a few weeks ago.

The Miami offense hasn’t been very good to start the season, but that was to be expected after they just picked Jay Cutler up off the straight and made him their starter in the middle of training camp. I think they may have found something in the 2nd half of last week’s game against the Falcons, where they scored on all 4 possessions to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit. They should come out with a ton of confidence on that side of the ball this week.

The Jets are a miserable 0-6 ATS under head coach Todd Bowles in road games after playing their previous game against a division opponent and have lost these games by an average of 15.3 points. On the flip side of this, the Dolphins are a strong 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when revenging a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me the Dolphins -3! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +6) 

As difficult as it might be to stomach the Browns right now, I think there's enough value here to warrant a play on Cleveland. I don't think this team is going to go 0-16 like everyone thinks and the Titans haven't exactly played up to their potential this season. It's a spot they have been horrific against the number under Mularky. They are 3-11 ATS under him against teams with a losing record, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs an opponent that gives up 24+ ppg and 0-6 ATS after a contest in which they gained 400+ yards. 

Cleveland's defense isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest, as turnovers by the offense have really put them in some bad spots.  They are actually allowing fewer yards than the Titans per game and are yielding just 3 yards/rush. Titans are a team that really relies on the running game, making this a good matchup. 

I also got a sneaky feeling we get a good game here out of rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who is getting another chance after he was bench thanks to the Kevin Hogan injury. Titans secondary is a good one for him to attack, as they are allowing opposing teams roughly 35 yards more game than they average on the year. Give me the Browns +6 and don't hate a little side action on the money line! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Duke -8) 

I think we are actually getting value here with the Blue Devils, as I think they should be closer two a two touchdown favorite. This is the perfect time to jump back on Duke, who enters having lost 3 straight and failed to cover in all 3. They were a lot more competitive than the final looked in a 31-6 defeat to Miami at home. They then lost by 7 on the road against an improved Virginia team and underrated Florida State team. 

I think Duke is a lot closer to the top half of the league than people think. Keep in mind they rolled Northwestern at home 41-17. Pitt on the other hand is near the bottom half of the league this season. They are just 2-5 and the two wins have come against Rice and Youngstown St. They just lost by 18 at home to NC State and are also without starting quarterback Max Browne, who was one of the bright spots offensively, completing 71% of his attempts. 

Even when Browne was playing well the offense has not been anything close to what we saw a year ago under coordinator Matt Canada. He left for LSU and Pitt's only game this season with more than 30 points is against Rice, who is 114th in scoring defense (36.3 ppg). Backup quarterbacks Ben Dinucci and Kenny Pickett have both looked bad.

That's not good as this Duke defense isn't going to let them run the ball. The Blue Devils rank 16th in the nation against the run, giving up just 108.0 ypg. Pitts defense isn't good enough to be on the field the entire game. Give me Duke -8! 

100* NCAAF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR (FSU -7) 

This might seem like a big number for FSU to be laying, even at home, against a team that beat them by 43 points last year. However, it’s that embarrassing loss last season that has me siding with the Seminoles in this one.

Keep in mind that win last year came with Florida State ranked #2. That’s also one of the rare times that the Seminoles were on the losing end of a blowout loss. You can bet that FSU has had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released.

Louisville got a lot of love coming into the season because of the fact they were returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at quarterback. While Jackson has continued to put incredible numbers, the rest of the team has not played up to their potential. Especially the defense, which is giving up almost a touchdown more per game. I mean they just let Boston College of all teams score 45 with 555 yards of total offense and 27 first downs.

I know this isn’t the same Florida State team without Deondre Francois, but there’s still a ton of talent on this team. We are also now in the 5th start for freshman James Blackmon. He showed some flashes and this could be his breakout game against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed 290+ yards four times already this season. They also have allowed 290+ yards on the ground twice, so it’s not like Blackmon will have to do it all.

At the same time, I think we are going to see Florida State’s defense show up in a big way for this one. A lot of the guys who will take the field got it handed to them by Jackson and the Cardinals. They are much improved on that side and come in ranked 28th in the country in total defense. Not to mention we have seen Jackson and the Louisville offense struggle against the better defenses they have faced.

FSU is 13-4-1 ATS after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Louisville is now 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the Seminoles -7! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa St +7.5)

The decision to hire Matt Campbell is paying off sooner than expected. After going just 3-9 in his first year on the job, Campbell has ISU sitting at 4-2 through their first 6 games and looking every bit the part of a bowl team.

Keep in mind they had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter of an OT loss at home to Iowa and were right there with Texas at home in their other defeat.

This team is playing with all kinds of confidence right now and I look for them to not only go into Texas Tech and keep it close, but win this game outright.

While ISU is riding a wave of momentum, the Red Raiders will likely have a hard time picking themselves off the mat after blowing that 18-point 2nd half lead against the Mountaineers.

While neither team is great defensively, Iowa State comes in a respectable 42nd in total defense, giving up just 356 ypg (nearly 100 yards less than what they allowed last year). Texas Tech on the other hand is 101st in total defense, giving up 430.5 ypg.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a play on the Cyclones. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win by 10 or more are 48-17 (74%) against the spread when matchup up with an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points.

Iowa State is also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, while the Red Raiders are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that has a winning road record (ISU is 2-0 on the road). Give me the Cyclones +7.5! 

50* NCAAF MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Nevada +7) 

I really like what I have seen out of this Nevada team the past two weeks. It would have been easy for the Wolf Pack to just throw in the towel after their 0-5 start, but they have continued to play well. 

They nearly won outright as a 24-point dog, losing at Colorado State 42-44. A game Nevada has to be wondering how they lost. The Wolfpack had 42 points and a 11-point lead with just over 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They got their first win in their previous game against Hawaii as a 5.5-point dog.

Even though they let one get away against Colorado State, I think the confidence level is high right now. Keep in mind the schedule really didn’t set up well to start the year. They had to open at Northwestern, host a very good Toledo team and play both Washington State and Fresno State on the road.

As for the Falcons, I’m not really sure they deserve to be a near touchdown favorite on the road. Air Force is fortunate to not be 1-5 with their only win over a FCS program, but UNLV was nice enough to blow a 27-point lead. That doesn’t get me excited about this team, who I think is still getting a lot of respect for how good they have been in previous years. The Falcons won 10-games last year and have won 28 over the last 3, but only had 7 starters back for 2017.

My big concern with this team, especially on the road, is their defense. Air Force ranks 126th out of 130 FBS teams against the run, giving up 255.3 ypg. Opposing teams are averaging a ridiculous 6.2 yards/carry. That’s with the Falcons only giving up 55 yards on 28 attempts in their opener against VMI. Nevada’s rushing attack is ranked 100th, but they have topped 200 yards twice this season, including 268 two weeks ago against Hawaii.

This is also a good matchup for the Wolf Pack defensively. Nevada’s secondary has been used and abused this season, as they come in allowing 326.1 ypg (128th). They catch a breather here, as Air Force averages a mere 6 completions a game compared to 62 rushing attempts. The Wolfpack’s run defense isn’t great, but it is giving up less yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. I think they can make enough stops here to not only keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright. Give me Nevada +7! 

40* THURSDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS KNOCKOUT (Lafayette +13) 

The Ragin' Cajuns aren't going to take to kindly to being a double-digit dog against a team they beat last year at home as an underdog. Mark Hudspeth is in year seven with this team and doesn't get near the respect he deserves. Lafayette has a big scheduling edge here, as they last played last Thursday and Arkansas State played on Saturday. That extra time to recover and prepare are huge this time of year. I also don't think the Red Wolves should be laying this many points with how bad they are defensively. They come in giving up 449 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. On the flip side of this, Lafayette's defense has really turned it on the last two weeks. I think they keep this close and wouldn't be shocked if the won outright. Give me the Ragin' Cajuns +13! 

50* NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Raiders -4) 

I absolutely love this spot for the Raiders at home against division rival Chargers. All the hype around Oakland has took a big hit with their current 3-game losing streak, but they are getting back starting quarterback Derek Carr against a Chargers team they have beat 4 straight times. 

Los Angeles was able to avoid an 0-5 start by beating another winless team in the Giants in Week 5, but were fortunate to do so, as they trailed 17-22 going in the 4th quarter. I know the Chargers have been competitive despite the 1-4 record, but this is a tough spot playing on the road for a second straight week against a desperate Raiders team that really can't afford to lose this game with how well the Chiefs and Broncos are playing in their division. 

I think this is the week that Marshawn Lynch and that Raiders running game gets going, as they go up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last vs the run, allowing 161.2 ypg. That's only going to make it that much easier on Carr in his first game back from injury. This San Diego offense is also nothing special and continue to struggle to run the ball. 

Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC. Give me the Raiders -4! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bucs -1) 

I really like this Bucs team and not the least bit concerned with their poor showing at home against the Patriots in Week 5. New England's game plan was top notch on a short week, as Belichick and his staff took full advantage of a Tampa Bay offense that doesn't change things up from week to week. I also think Winston and the rest of the team put way too much pressure on themselves in that game. 

I expect a much better showing here from Tampa Bay against a struggling Arizona team that I think is still getting too much respect for what they have done in the past. The Cardinals two wins this season are against the Colts and 49ers and they were lucky to win both, as both victories came in overtime. All 3 of their losses have come by double-digits and i just don't see it getting better, even with the recent trade for AP, who isn't expected to play this week. 

Another key here is the Bucs have had some extra time to not only prepare for this game, but also get healthy after playing on Thursday last week. That's a big edge that often gets overlooked. I think it's more than enough for Tampa Bay to get the win on the road. 

Cardinals are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-4 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points. Give me the Bucs -1! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins -10) 

I don’t love laying this many points in the NFL, but I just feel the situation here is too good to pass up. On one side you have a Washington team that is returning from their bye in a game they has to feel like a must win to keep pace in the NFC East. Especially with road games against the Eagles and Seahawks sandwiched around a home game against the Cowboys in their next three.

As for the 49ers, they have to be running on fumes right now. San Francisco is playing their 3rd straight road game and with each trip they have had to go further east, starting with Arizona, before going to Indy and now Washington. It doesn’t come up often, but rarely do teams play well in that 3rd game of a 3-game trip. Especially if it’s a poor team like the 49ers, who are clearly in rebuilding mode.

The fact that the Redskins weren’t expected to do much coming into the year and they are sitting at just 2-2, I don’t think the public will be running to back them here. I personally have really been impressed with this team. Their two losses are against arguably the two teams playing the best football early on in the Chiefs and Eagles. While they lost both by more than a touchdown, the final score doesn’t do justice to how well they played. In both games they fumbled and let the defense return it for a TD in the final two minutes.

The Washington defense has really caught my eye and they rank in the top half of the league against both the run (10th, 88.8 ypg) and pass (15th, 222.5 ypg). That unit should be able to slow down a weak 49ers offense that has scored 15 or less in 3 of their 5 games. San Francisco’s offense ranks 20th in both rushing and passing.

This is also not a good 49ers defense. San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run (19th, 116.6 ypg) and the pass (26th, 249.8 ypg). Keep in mind the schedule has been favorable to this point. The best offense they have faced is the Rams and they were torched for 41 points. Redskins rank 8th in total offense and should be well-prepared for what the 49ers like to do.

Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 ATS after their last 5 games following a game where they didn’t cover. Give me the Redskins -10!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +10) 

I just feel the books have inflated this line too much as the public wants nothing to do with the winless Browns and are drawn to rookie sensation Deshaun Watson. I just think this is too many points for Houston to be laying after losing two of their best defensive players in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.

Keep in mind they were already without starting inside linebacker Brian Cushing and corner Kevin Johnson. They will also be missing starting safety Corey Moore for this game and linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney are both banged up. 

What people don't realize is this Browns team is better than the 0-5 record would indicate. What's really hurt them is turnovers and the problem was starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer. He's been benched in favor of Kevin Hogan. While Hogan isn't the long-term solution, he played great in relief last week against the Jets and knows how to protect the football. 

Cleveland also has a very underrated defense that should only get better now that No. 1 pick Myles Garrett is a full go. The Browns rank 5th in the NFL, giving up just 305 ypg and have excelled against the run, allowing just 76.6 ypg. Watson and the Texans offense has benefited from going up against a couple of defense in the Pats and Chiefs that give up a ton of yards. KC comes in 27th in total defense (366 ypg) and NE is dead last (447.2 ypg). 

Not only do I like the Browns chances of keeping it close enough to cover, but I give them a decent shot to get their first win of the season. Give me Cleveland +10! 

50* NFL AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Patriots -9) 

I would love to what the odds would have been that the Patriots and Jets would have the same record going into their Week 6 showdown. I believe it has New England showing some value and that’s hard to do when you are talking about a near double-digit road favorite against a division rival.

I’ll be the first to say that I didn’t see the Jets winning 3-games all season, but I’m also not going to let a 3-game winning streak against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns change my thought process on this team. I still believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league and wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win another game.

I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. I just don’t see the Jets being able to generate enough offense to keep this close. I know the Patriots defense has been bad to start the year, but they were a lot better last time out against the Bucs. Holding a potent Tampa Bay offense to just 14 points.

One of the reasons for New England’s poor start defensively is a schedule the has had them face Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. They finally catch a break here going up against Josh McCown, who has a mere 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Under his guidance the offense has scored 23 or less in all 5 games.

As for the Jets defense and their strong numbers, they have faced Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Carr is the only one of those who you would consider an above-average QB and he went 23 of 28 for 230 yards and 3 scores in a 25-point blowout win. Even with the home crowd supporting them, I don’t see the Jets keeping the Patriots offense in check here.

I also like the fact that the Patriots haven’t got off to a great start. Not that Belichick would let them look past any opponent, they should be 100% locked in for a division matchup. You also have to factor in the advantage Belichick and his staff have here with New England getting a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week. All signs point to a lopsided win and cover for the Patriots in this one. Give me New England -9! 

50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +10.5) 

The Ducks are worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Cardinal. Sometimes it’s a star player like Stanford’s Bryce Love that can lead to the entire team being overvalued. I think that’s exactly what is happening here.

At the same time, I think now is the time to jump on Oregon after an embarrassing loss at home to Washington State. It will be hard for the public to back the Ducks given how much the offense struggled in the first game without starting quarterback Justin Herbert.

What can be overlooked is how good that Washington State defense is playing. The Cougars are 11th in the country, giving up 275.5 ypg and are exceptional in the secondary, holding teams to just 146.3 ypg. That makes it really hard to play catch up like Oregon was forced to do in that game.

Stanford is known for being a program that excels on the defensive side of the ball. You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time they allowed more than 28 ppg on this side of the ball. While they currently rank 55th, allowing 24.5 ppg, they have given up 42 to USC and 34 to UCLA. The more concerning numbers are that they rank 91st in the country against the run (182 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg).

Prior to getting completely shutdown by Washington State, Oregon was averaging 537.5 yards/game. Even after the poor showing they still come in 19th in rushing (239.3 ypg) and 50th in passing (254.7 ypg). The thing to keep in mind is the reason they had to start a true freshman against the Cougars, is their top two guys both got hurt the game before. While Herbert is still out, his backup Taylor Alie has been cleared to play. Alie has looked good when he’s got to play. He came in and completed 9 of 13 for 41 yards and also rushed 3 times for 17 yards. I think we see the Ducks offense return to form in this one.

As for Oregon’s defense and stopping Love, I think they can at least slow them down. Considering how bad the Ducks were defensively last year, it will probably surprise a lot of people to learn that they are currently 10th in the nation, holding teams to just 93.7 ypg. Teams are averaging just 2.7 yards/carry. Last week against Utah’s defense, which came into that game only giving up 87 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry, Love totaled just 152 yards on 20 attempts.

Add in the fact that these rivalry games can go either way and the Ducks with big time revenge, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Oregon win this game outright. Give me the Ducks +10.5!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS BLOODBATH (Arizona St +17.5)

We are getting big time value here with the Sun Devils as a 3-score underdog at home against the Huskies. Playing at home under the lights is special against any opponent. The atmosphere really gets amped in these games when it’s against a team like Washington that is the defending conference champion and sitting undefeated at No. 5 in the country. 

The reason you don’t hear much about the Huskies in the media, is because they are one of the few highly ranked teams that haven’t played anybody. The schedule so far includes Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and Cal. Those 3 conference opponents are currently a combined 0-9 in league play and a Rutgers team they struggled with in the opener just lost 56-0 to Ohio State.

I’m not saying Washington isn’t a good team, I just think they are getting way too much respect here. The fact they are a Top 5 team and have covered 3 straight, the public will be on them here, which is why we are getting a line that I feel is all most a touchdown too high.

Arizona State might have a losing record at 2-3, but there 3 losses have come against San Diego State, Texas Tech and Stanford, all of which are currently ranked in the Top 25. The big key is they were competitive in each of those games. They also have a big win over Oregon, who came in ranked at the time they beat them.

The defense for Washington has put up some great numbers, but a lot of that has to do with who they have played. Three of their opponents rank outside the Top 100 in total offense and that’s not include the FCS opponent they faced. What they did to Cal last week was impressive, but they caught the Golden Bears in a horrible spot, as they just had nothing left after playing their previous 3 against Ole Miss, USC and Oregon.

I’m confident that the Sun Devils will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. Arizona State ranks 23rd in the country in passing at 297.4 ypg and just rushed for more than 200 yards last week against Stanford. At the same time, I think the defense can hold their own against a Huskies offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard as much as you would expect against that cupcake schedule.

Add in the fact that Arizona State is coming off a bye and I think we could see an outright win here by the Sun Devils. Note they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road cover where they lost as an underdog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games with 2+ weeks to prepare for an opponent. Give me the Sun Devils +17.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Cincinnati +24) 

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a huge underdog against the Bulls. USF couldn't be more overvalued right now. The Bulls come in ranked No. 18 in the country with a perfect 5-0 record and have covered 3 straight. During this stretch they beat Illinois by 24 as a 16.5-point favorite, Temple by 36  as a 17.5-point favorite and ECU by 30 as a 21.5-point favorite. 

You might have noticed something, all of those wins where they covered in blowout fashion have come against some awful teams. Illinois is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, Temple is a mess without Matt Rhule in charge and East Carolina has 4 losses by 20 or more points, including a 20-point loss to James Madison in their opener. USF's other two games are against San Jose State and Stony Brook. As you can see, the Bulls have played nobody good. To back this point even more, the teams USF has played this season are only averaging 3.1 yards/carry and completing 52.2% of their passes. 

Now the Bearcats aren't a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are hands down the best team USF has faced this season. The fact that's it's been so easy for the Bulls to this point is going to make it hard for them to give Cincinnati the respect they deserve. I think the Bearcats sneak up on the South Florida and make this a hard fought game that isn't decided for good until the 4th quarter.  Give me the Bearcats +24! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Purdue +17)

I have really liked what I have seen from Purdue in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm and fully expect them to give Wisconsin all they can handle on Saturday.

The Boilermakers matched last year’s win total with their win and cover over Minnesota at home. A game they managed to win despite posting a -2 turnover margin. They have shown they are more than capable hanging with the top teams, as they were in it until the end against Louisville and had a 2nd half lead against Michigan. Their two other wins at home against Ohio by 23 and at Missouri by 32 are also impressive. I don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to keep it within 17 against the Badgers.

The thing with Wisconsin is they have played a very easy schedule to this point. Not a single one of their opponents they have beat currently has a winning record. They have especially had it easy on the defensive side of the ball, as 4 of their 5 opponents rank in bottom 50 in total offense and the lone exception is FAU, who has padded their offensive stats against some bad teams of late.

The biggest thing you need to be able to do to move the ball on the Badgers is be able to throw the ball, as you just aren’t going to run it down their throats with much success. Purdue ranks 40th in the nation in passing at 265.2 ypg. I think the Boilermakers are going to catch Wisconsin off guard and put together some scoring drives to keep this close.

The other big thing here is while it’s not elite, the Boilermakers defense has played well given they have played a pretty tough schedule so far. Purdue is holding teams almost a full yard under their average per play. In comparison, Wisconsin is giving up 4.4 yards/play against teams that average 4.5.

Wisconsin’s offense isn’t anything to get excited about. I know the numbers are decent, but the best defense they have faced statistically is Nebraska and that Cornhuskers defense isn’t anything to write home about. They gave nearly 500 yards and 36 points to Arkansas State and 42 points and 566 yards to Oregon. Purdue should be able to hold their own here and force the Badgers to work to get the ball in the end zone.

Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS under head coach Paul Chryst in home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite and Purdue is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off a game against a conference opponent. Give me the Boilermakers +17!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -3) 

Carson Wentz and the Eagles are getting all kinds of love right now and a lot of people are saying they are the best team in the NFC. I don’t think that’s going to sit well with Carolina, who I’m surprised isn’t getting more love given they are just two seasons removed from going 15-1 and playing in the Super Bowl.

I was really high on Carolina coming into this season and expected them to return close to the form that had them playing on the final Sunday of the season two years ago. The offense didn’t start out great, but have found a nice rhythm the last two games, scoring 33 on the Patriots and 27 on the Lions.

Newton has been a big reason for the uptick in production, throwing for 671 yards with 6 TDs to just 1 INT. In his previous 3 games he had only thrown for 566 yards with a mere 2 TDs and 4 INT. Keep in mind he came into the season at less than 100% recovering from offseason surgery on his throwing arm. For those that don’t remember, Carolina led the NFL in scoring at 31.3 ppg during that magical 2015 season.

Not to take anything away from the Eagles and their strong start, but they come in having beat the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals over the last 3 weeks. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 on the year. Their best win coming at Washington in Week 1.

I think this is a game where we see Wentz and the Eagles struggle on the road against one of the top tier teams in the league. Carolina’s defense is one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Panthers come in 6th against the run (79.8 ypg) and are 5th against the pass (194.2 ypg). This will be their first game against a team that ranks inside the Top 10 against both the run and the pass.

Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 25-15 in their last 40 against a strong offensive team that is averaging 24+ points/game. Give me the Panthers -3! 

40* S ALABAMA/TROY ATS KNOCKOUT (South Alabama +17) 

This line has been inflated on Troy with the Trojans coming in off that big win over LSU. Keep in mind that South Alabama was only a 11.5-point dog at Louisiana Tech in their last game. While they didn’t cover, they could have won that game outright had they been a little more efficient in the redone.

The fact that both teams didn’t play this past weekend, also favors the Jaguars and this big spread. Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for the opponent, which typically leads to a lower-scoring game. The less scoring there is, the greater the chance South Alabama keeps this within the number.

Another key here is that I think the Jaguars are better than their record would indicate. You certainly can’t blame them for losing at Ole Miss and at home to Oklahoma State. Same thing with their loss at Louisiana Tech. I like what Joey Jones is doing here and expect this team to come out and lay it all on the line in one of the rare times they get to play in a nationally televised game.

Troy is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a losing road record. Factor in that each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 14 or less and I think the smart play here is to take the points. Give me the Jaguars +17! 

40* VIKINGS/BEARS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears +4) 

I think the Bears should have been starting Trubisky from the start. Glennon has been putting Chicago behind the 8-ball just about every game with his inability to protect the football. I'm not saying Trubisky will play mistake free, but he's going to provide a spark to an offense that has one of the league's better rushing attacks and a very underrated defense. Minnesota gets back Bradford, but loses an even bigger piece to their offense in rookie RB Cook. It was already going to be tough getting the running game going against a solid Chicago front. I think the Vikings have a lot of 3rd and long situations that's going to let the Bears defense get off the field and keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright. Give me the Bears +4! 

40* CHIEFS/TEXANS SNF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +1)

This is the week to go against the Chiefs, who have quickly become one of the public’s favorites teams to back early this season. While Kansas City is undefeated and one of the best teams in the league, they aren’t going to go 16-0. Chances are they will lose a few on the road and this has the makings of one of those spots.

Houston is playing with a ton of confidence behind Watson, who finally has that offense playing on par with their defense. They are going to be extremely motivated to keep it going at home in a prime time game against the team with the best record in the league. The Chiefs on the other hand will be playing on short rest after that huge home game on MNF and might find it difficult to not look ahead to their home game against the Steelers next week. Adding to this is the fact that KC is just 1-4 ATS when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday the week before.

The Chiefs defense is going to give up some yards. They rank 26th in the NFL, allowing 359.5 ypg. They have also struggled to keep quarterbacks from picking up big gains on the ground. In fact, twice the opposing team has led their team in rushing against KC. Carson Wentz had 55 yards on 4 attempts in Week 2 and Kirk Cousins went for 38 on 7 attempts. Watson is more athletic than both of those guys and I think his ability to scramble will have Houston’s offense putting up another big number on the scoreboard.

Kansas City’s offense is playing well and will likely do some damage here, I just think they could struggle to finish off drives against this Houston defense that ranks 5th in the league, giving up just 291 ypg. Keep in mind the Chiefs could be without their projected starting interior offensive linemen for this game. I’ll take my chances the Texans get enough stops and win this game outright. Give me the Texans +1!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (Raiders -2.5) 

I think we are getting some great value here with Oakland laying less than a field goal at home. The only reason the Raiders aren’t a much bigger favorite is the loss of Carr at QB.

The thing is, I don’t know the drop off to backup E.J. Manuel is as big as people think. Manuel stepped in and completed 11 of 17 attempts for 106 yards and keep in mind that’s with Denver’s defense knowing Oakland was looking to pass the ball.

This is a good offense for a backup to succeed, as the Raiders have one of the top offensive lines in the game and a bunch of talented weapons on the outside to make life easier on the quarterback.

This could also be the week Marshawn Lynch comes to life, as the Ravens run defense has allowed 166 yards to the Jaguars and 173 to the Steeler the last two weeks. The drop off in run defense for Baltimore is coincided with the injury to defensive tackle Brandon Williams. He’s hasn’t practiced this week and looks unlikely to return for this game.

That’s just one of a laundry list of injuries this Ravens team is dealing with right now. They got 10+ guys on IR and a lot of those are players who were expected to play big roles on this team. To lose the way they did to Jacksonville and come back against their hated rivals and lay another egg, tells me there’s a lot more wrong with this team than people think.

They clearly aren’t playing with much confidence. I think the Raiders rally together with the injury to Carr and pull out the W at home.

Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is 10-2 ATS when his team is playing at home after 2 straight losses and Oakland is an impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 with a line of +3 to -3. Give me the Raiders -2.5! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Browns +1)

I’ll be the first two admit that I didn’t think the Jets would be sitting at 2-2 right now. In fact, I would have picked the Jets to be the team in this contest that was still searching for their first win. I’m not going to let a couple victories over the Dolphins and Jaguars change my thought process.

I still think New York is one of the least talented teams in the league and will be at or near the bottom of the NFL standings at the end of the season. Both of their wins came at home and it’s easy to disregard both. Miami was just shutout by the Saints defense, which says how bad things are for the Dolphins on that side of the ball. Jacksonville has a win over the Texans prior to Deshaun Watson taking over and that victory over the Ravens looks a lot less impressive after how bad Baltimore played last week.

I also feel like the Jets went into those last two games with the feeling they had something to proved (underdog in both). I think they struggle to bring that same sense of urgency on the road against the winless Browns. Not only will they struggle to give Cleveland their full attention because of the Browns record and history of losing, but they likely are looking ahead to their game next week at home against the hated Patriots. A matchup they probably feel like they can win with how New England is struggling on defense.

Even after giving up 30+ points to the Bengals last week, Cleveland’s defense still ranks a respectable 16th, giving up just 328 ypg. The strength of the unit behind their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL, allowing only 87.2 ypg. That makes this an ideal matchup for the Browns, as the Jets are sitting 7th in rushing (130.8 ypg) compared to a mere 26th in passing (192.2 ypg). Keep in mind Cleveland will finally be sending out No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett for this contest, which should light a fire under the entire unit.

As for the Browns offense, I know this doesn’t look like a great matchup for them, but the Jets are 29th in the league against the run, giving up 143.8 ypg. Cleveland’s only game this season where they rushed for more than 100 yards was at Indy when they finished with 28 points. Getting the ground game going will make life easier on Kizer, plus I’m not expecting an all-out effort by New York on the road.

Jets are a mere 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games after they gained 6.5 or more yards/play and a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 2 straight home wins. Give me the Browns +1!

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals -3) 

I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons.

A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown.

The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines is also questionable.

Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews.

I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week.

It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal.

Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half. Give me the Bengals -3

40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY NO BRAINER (Purdue -4) 

I’ve been really impressed with how much better Purdue is playing on both sides of the ball in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers only two losses are against Louisville and Michigan and they had a chance to win both of those games. They cruised to a 44-21 win over an Ohio team that’s one of the favorites to win the MAC and dismantled Missouri 35-3 on the road.

While I’m also a big fan of Fleck at Minnesota, I think the Gophers were getting a little too much respect because of that hire. It certainly felt that way after watching them lose outright at home to a Maryland team that was down to 3rd string quarterback Max Bortenschlager.

I know this team started out 3-0, but the competition wasn’t all that challenging. Buffalo is a bottom-tier team out of the MAC, Oregon State’s only win in 2017 is a 3-point victory at home to Portland State and Middle Tennessee looks nothing like the team that won 8 games last year.

Minnesota is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 93rd in the country at just 368 ypg. That’s against opponents that on average are allowing 396 ypg. Purdue ranks similarly overall at 80th in total offense at 392 ypg, but are exceeding exceptions, as their opponents on average have only allowed 344 ypg. If not for that game against Michigan, the Boilermakers would have a lot better offensive numbers.

It’s not just the offense that is excelling early. Purdue is holding opponents to just 3.7 yards/carry on the ground, which is about 1.3 yards under what those teams are averaging. That’s important to note, because Minnesota’s offense is really built on their ground game. The Gophers are 58th in rushing (180.8 ypg) compared to just 100th in passing (187.0 ypg).

Another huge factor here that can’t be overlooked is that Purdue is coming off a bye. In his 3 seasons with Western Kentucky, he posted an impressive 5-1 record off a bye week. He was also 8-2 off a loss. A spot we already saw Purdue excel in earlier this season, in their win over Ohio after losing a heartbreaker to Louisville. I think the Boilers could turn this into a bit of a blowout, making this an easy call for me with laying the 4.5. Give me the Boilermakers -4! 

100* ACC (Side) GAME OF THE YEAR (Pittsburgh +3.5) 

I would have to take the field goal here with the Panthers, as I actually think Pitt should be favored in this game. Syracuse is getting a lot of love for close losses to LSU and NC State. That close call against LSU looks a lot worse after the Tigers just lost to Troy outright. They also caught the Wolfpack at the perfect time, as they were fresh off their win over FSU and had another huge game on deck at Louisville in just 4 days.

The win over Central Michigan isn’t anything to get excited about, as the Chippewas just lost by 20 to BC. What really concerns me about the Orange is the loss to Middle Tennessee, who has really struggled in 2017. They just lost by 18 to FAU and their only other win was by just 11 points against an awful Bowling Green squad.

I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see Pittsburgh roll Rice last week. The Panthers had an absolutely brutal first 4 games on the schedule. They opened with Youngstown State, who played in the FCS Championship Game a year ago. They then had to go on the road to face Penn State, host Oklahoma State, both of which were ranked in the Top 10 at the time. After that they had a road game against arguably the most underrated team in the country in Georgia Tech.

I know the talent has changed for both sides, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh was a 24-point favorite against Syracuse in last year’s meeting. I believe had these two teams opened the season against each other, Pittsburgh definitely would have been favored and maybe by even a touchdown. Now they are getting 3.5-points, as they continue be undervalued after their poor start. A win over Rice isn’t going to change that.

Syracuse is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. Underdog is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two schools. Give me the Panthers +3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Duke +2.5) 

The fact that Virginia is coming off a bye and in their last game handed Boise State their worst home loss in more than 15 years, I think the public will be drawn to laying less than a field goal at home with the Cavaliers, especially with Duke off that ugly showing at home against Miami.

That has me looking the other direction and taking Duke, who I gladly would have taken as a dog prior to their loss to Miami. The final score doesn’t look great against the Hurricanes, but the Blue Devils were more than competitive in that game and were only outlined by 60 yards. Duke had the ball inside the Miami 20 three times in the first half and came away with two field goals.

That’s a very good Hurricanes team that returned 15 starters, is now in year two under Mark Right and added in Notre Dame transfer Malik Rosier at quarterback. This is still the same team that dominated Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina in their previous 3 games.

Virginia’s offense is built around their passing attack, which ranks 17th in the country at 312.3 ypg. The problem is they don’t have much of a running game. This Duke defense is the real deal. They come in ranked 14th in the country in total defense, giving up just 291 yards/game. The most impressive stat being they are holding their opponents close 85 yards under their season average. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 48.3% of their passes, which is more than 10% under what their opponents are averaging (60.4%).

The Cavaliers defense has played well so far in 2017, but the highest ranked offense they have faced in terms of yards/game is UConn, which is 31st, but have played two awful defenses in ECU and SMU. The other two FBS foes for Virginia were Indiana, who ranks 81st and Boise State, who ranks 101st.

Duke is 43rd in the country and that’s with having faced four Power 5 opponents. The strength of their offense being a rushing attack that ranks 29th at 218.2 ypg. Virginia have up over 200 yards on the ground to UConn a fews week back and I see them struggling here. Another thing with the Blue Devils offense is they are great with ball control, as they come in averaging more than 35 minutes in time of possession.

Duke is an impressive 15-5 ATS under David Cutcliffe in games where they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. The Blue Devils are also 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in the month of October, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by more than 20 points and11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games. Give me the Blue Devils +2.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Wake Forest +22.5) 

Any doubt the public had with this Clemson team was thrown out the window in their convincing win on the road over Virginia Tech. They will look to back this team no matter the price and this a great spot to take advantage of an inflated line on the Tigers. 

Clemson is going to have a hard time bringing that same intensity against the Demon Deacons, as they did last week against the Hokies on the road in a prime time night game. I think that's a big mistake, as this Wake Forest team is playing really well under Dave Clawson. They are 4-1 with their only loss coming to Florida State, where the Seminoles scored the game winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. What will get overlooked in that final is the fact that Wake outgained FSU by almost a 100 yards (367-270). 

This is Clemson's homecoming, but I think that only adds to the distractions for the Tigers and has them not 100% locked in on the task at hand. It's a spot they have struggled with in the past as well. Keep in mind Clemson was tied 7-7 with BC at home two weeks ago and Wake Forest rolled the Eagles by 24 in an earlier meeting this season. I think this is a game throughout and we easily cover here. Give me the Demon Deacons +22.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa -17) 

This might seem like a lot of points to be laying on Iowa considering they have scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last two games. However, that was against two of the best defenses in the country. Penn State is currently ranked 13th in total defense, allowing just 289.2 ypg and Michigan State is 5th giving up only 248.3 ypg.

Look for the Hawkeyes offense to get back on track against an Illinois defense that comes in 99th in the country, allowing 427.5 ypg. They are equally bad against both the run and the pass. The Illini rank 92nd in run defense (179.5 ypg) and 94th in pass defense (248.0 ypg). Iowa should be able to move the chains with their rushing attack and hit some big plays down the field via play action to really break this thing open.

I also think this is a great matchup for Iowa’s defense, as Illinois clearly has some problems if they are only scoring 6-points at home off a bye against a pretty average Nebraska defense. There’s 130 FBS teams and the Illini ranks 113th in rushing (106 ypg) and 114th in passing (161.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes defensive front should have a field day in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if Iowa shutout the Illinois for a second straight year.

It’s also worth pointing out that I think this is a great spot to back Iowa, who aren’t going to be overlooking Illinois off back-to-back losses. They have to feel like this is one they have to win and that’s the mindset we are looking for when it comes to covering a big spread like this. This is also homecoming for Iowa, so we can expect a packed house at Kinnick on Saturday.

Hawkeyes are an impressive 33-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss and 16-5 ATS after two straight games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards. Illinois on the other hand is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 off two straight losses by 17 or more points. Give me Iowa -17! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Boise St -7.5) 

The Broncos will be returning from their bye week looking to bounce back from an ugly 23-42 loss at home to Virginia as a 14-point favorite. Boise State is just 1-2-1 ATS with the only cover coming in their heartbreaking 44-47 overtime loss at Washington State, where they blew a 31-10 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. BYU comes in off a 24-40 loss to Utah State last Friday, failing to yet again as a 1.5-point favorite. The Cougars have lost 4 straight overall since beating Portland State in their opener and are 0-5 ATS.

BYU is broken right now and I just don’t know how you can back this team with any confidence. Boise State on the other hand has at least shown me something with that performance against Washington State, which looks a heck of a lot better after the Cougars upset USC.

BYU’s offense has been atrocious and that’s putting it nicely. There’s a 130 FBS teams and they rank 116h in rushing (104.0 ypg) and 118th in passing (152.6 ypg). It doesn’t figure to get any better. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and backup Beau Hoge is questionable with a head injury.

Not only is the offense struggling to get first downs, but they aren’t protecting the football. They have 12 turnovers in their last 3 games, including 7 last week against Utah State. It doesn't figure to get any better as they are down to 3rd string QB Koy Detmer, who was 7 of 20 for 91 yards and 0 TDs and 3 INTs in relief of Hoge last week.

This Boise State defense is a heck of lot better than what the Aggies brought to the table. Their strength being their run defense, which ranks 30th in the country, giving up just 115.8 ypg. If they can keep BYU’s running game in check, it’s hard to piece together how the Cougars are going to be able to sustain drives and put points on the board.

I also like that we are getting the Broncos off an embarrassing loss to Virginia. That one couldn’t have set well with the players. You can bet head coach Bryan Harsin had their full attention in practice over the bye week. This Boise State team has to be itching to get back on the field and put something positive together before their big game next week at San Diego State. As a head coach at Boise State and Arkansa State, Harsin’s teams have gone 7-2 SU after a bye. They are also 9-3 SU off a loss. I’m confident the trends continue and the Broncos leave Provo with a double-digit victory. Give me Boise State -7.5! 

50* PATS/BUCS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bucs +6)

This Patriots defense has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the season. They are 31st in points allowed at 32.0 ppg and dead last in yards allowed (476.8 ypg). They are 32nd against the pass (324.0 ypg) and 26th against the run (132.8 ypg).

This past weekend they let Cam Newtown and a struggling Carolina offense rack up 33 points and 444 yards. The defense was so bad, the Patriots couldn’t even win at home, despite being +2 in turnovers. As much as I hate going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a loss, I just see too much value in Tampa Bay as an underdog at home.

I was impressed with how the Bucs responded against the Giants, as they were still missing some key players on defense. They are starting to get healthy on that side of the ball and while I don’t expect them to shutdown Brady and the Patriots offense, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this game close and at least cover. 

More than anything, I just don’t see New England’s defense being able to slow down Jameis Winston and this high-powered Buccaneers offense. A unit that’s only going to get better once DeSean Jackson starts getting more involved. They also get a big boost to their running game this week, as Doug Martin returns from a 3-game suspension. Martin was impressive in training camp and could step in right away with a huge game against this Pats defense.

While New England’s offense is built around Brady and the passing attack, the ability to have some success on the ground is critical. It won’t be easy getting the running game going against the Bucs, who rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 78.7 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry. Note that the Patriots are just 1-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are holding opponents under 90 rushing yards/game. Give me the Bucs +6! 

40* LOUISVILLE/NC STATE BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State +4.5)

There’s no question that NC State has had this game circled on the calendar. Not only do they get a chance to go up against a Heisman winner, but they want revenge from that 41-point embarrassment last year.

It will be hard for the public to ignore that outcome and not lay the small number here with the Cardinals. I just don’t think this Louisville team is on the same level as last year. They struggled in a neutral site game against an improved, but still bottom of the pack Purdue team. They also trailed a down Tar Heels team 27-28 going into the 4th and got dismantled at home by Clemson.

This Wolfpack team has been looking up at FSU and Clemson for years, but the fan base continues to come out and support them with all they got. It’s why it’s never a sure thing when a team makes the trip to Carter-Finley, even when the Wolfpack are down. They aren’t down this year and you can count on an electric home crowd in this one. That’s going to have that NC State defense flying around the field and they need all 11 in full pursuit to keep Jackson in check.

I know the Wolfpack don’t have the overall talent on defense as Clemson, but both teams are built around dominant defensive lines and the Tigers front four really made life miserable for Jackson earlier this season. I think Bradley Chubb, Kentavius Street, BJ Hill and Justin Jones wreak havoc here and keep Jackson from having one of those video game type performances.

I also think with so much attention on Jackson, people are going to overlook the NC State offense and the fact that they should have a ton of success here against a Louisville defense that has struggled against better competition. The Wolfpack feature a balanced attack that comes in ranked 33rd in the country at 461.

The key matchup here being NC State’s 24th ranked passing attack (293.0 ypg) going up against Louisville’s 53rd ranked pass defense. That’s with the Cardinals holding Kent State and Murray State to a combined 72 passing yards in their previous two games. Prior to that they had allowed 293 passing yards to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson.

I just feel that this line is based too much off what we saw last year and not the direction these two teams are heading. While I advise taking the points, I don’t hate a little extra action on the money line. Give me NC State +4.5! 

40* REDSKINS/CHIEFS NFL MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6.5) 

I have to roll the dice here with Kansas City at home in what is going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Last time the Chiefs played at home on MNF was that 41-14 blowout win over the Patriots back in 2014. I'm not saying it's going to get that ugly, but I like the Chiefs' chances of winning here by at least a touchdown, something they have done in each of their first 3 games. I think the defense for KC will be able to force some key mistakes by Cousins and the offense will pose some major problems with their dynamic trio of weapons in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Give me the Chiefs -6.5! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Giants +3) 

I’m going to take the Giants +3 on the road over Tampa Bay. I think this is do-or-die for New York, as they know they can’t start 0-4 and realistically expect to make the playoffs in the NFC. Most importantly they still believe they are an elite team and we started to see the offense finally come to life late in last week’s game against the Eagles. Odell Beckham Jr. looks to be back to full strength and when he’s good this offense gets a lot more explosive. I also think it has a trickle down effect on the defense, who I expect to show up in a big way.

I think we could see an offensive explosion from New York in this one. Tampa Bay’s defense is absolutely decimated with injuries. We know for sure they won’t have Lavonte David and may be without fellow linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and safety T.J. Ward. They also got guys like Chris Baker, Noah Spence and Jacquies Smith all battling back from injuries. Even if McCoy plays, he’s likely to be less than 100%, which is a big blow to the defense. Though maybe not as big as the loss of David. 

This banged up defense made Case Keenum look like Drew Brees, as Keenum completed 25 of 33 attempts for 369 yards and 3 scores. Minnesota also had 125 yards on the ground. Keenum was just 20 of 37 for 167 yards with no touchdowns in a ugly 9-25 loss for Minnesota at Pittsburgh. 

At the same time, the Bucs were fortunate to hold Chicago to just 7-points in their opener. The Bears actually put up very similar offensive numbers to Tampa Bay, but turned it over 4 times. They made 4 trips deep into Bucs territory and only came away with 7 points. 

The Giants do have a good defense that is built to stop the pass. That makes this a good matchup for them, as the Bucs are struggling to run the ball with Doug Martin suspended for their first 3 games. They come in ranked just 26th with 71.5 ypg.  

Jameis Winston still struggles with his decision making. He threw 3 interceptions last week against the Vikings. I Look for another turnover or two from Winston that shifts this game into the Giants favor. Give me New York +3

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rams +6.5) 

While Dallas was able to pull away for the win and cover, I saw a lot of the same concerns that led to their blowout loss at Denver the week before. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Arizona was without arguably their best player in running back David Johnson, who the entire offense was built around. The Cardinals offensive line also was atrocious in that game.

The thing is, Dallas is one of the public’s favorite teams to back right now and the books haven’t hesitated to inflate this line in their favor. While I think the Rams are gaining interest with their revamped offense under new head coach Sean McVay, the public isn’t going to go crazy for a team that is 2-1 with wins against the 49ers and Colts.

I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see McVay take the weapons here and turn this into a decent offensive attack, especially with the upgrades they made at both wide receiver and on the offensive line. Goff is playing with confidence and Todd Gurley is back to being a big time impact player. I just think that Dallas defense is still a major work in progress. I still can’t get over how good they made Trevor Siemian and that Broncos offense look in week 2. I think the Rams will be able to hold their own here.

The big head scratcher for the Rams is the play of the defense. A unit many thought was going to be one of the best in the NFL with the talent they had coming back and the addition of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. So far, it’s been a shell of what we saw a year ago. I believe it’s going to get better and most importantly for this matchup, they have the talent up front to compete with that offensive line of the Cowboys and slow down their rushing attack.

I actually wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pulled off the upset here. Keep in mind they have a big time advantage in terms of time to prepare for this matchup. Due to playing on Thursday, they will have had 9 days off between games. Dallas on the other hand gets just 5 days off after playing on Monday Night Football. Give me the Rams +6.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Jags -3) 

I think this Jaguars team is the real deal and while this is likely going to be the public side, I still think we are getting value with this team because of how long they have been one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. 

As for the Jets, I still think this is one of the worst teams in the league and that didn't change the slightest after their upset win over Miami in Week 3. Just about every team in the league gets up for their home opener. We saw it last year with the 49ers, who looked great in a 28-0 win in Week 1 and then didn't win again until Week 16.

What that win does do is keep the Jaguars from overlooking this game in their first game back from London. Jacksonville is a team on a mission and I just don't see them laying an egg her in a game they know they have to win if they want to seriously make a run at a playoff spot this season. 

The Jaguars defense should have no problem keeping this Jets offense in check and might even help out with a big turnover or two that turns this game into a lopsided affair early. I also think it isn't sitting well that their blowout win over the Ravens is being treated more as a result of Baltimore not showing up to play and not them playing well. Give me the Jaguars -3! 

100* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR (Falcons -8) 

I know this is a big number, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-1 start and fresh off an upset win at home against the Broncos in Week 3. I think it has the public hesitating a bit here to Atlanta, who has a couple of wins over the Bears and Lions that weren't all that impressive. The thing is, both of those came on the road. The Falcons lone home game this season was a blowout win over the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. 

Buffalo has a decent defense and was able to do enough on that side against a pretty limited Denver offense at home, where they are a much better team. I know they only lost by 6 at Carolina, but the final was 3-9. The Panthers offense was a joke in that game and has not looked good at all so far this season. Buffalo's offense was even worse and I just don't see them being able to contain this high-powered Falcons offense.

I'm still convinced that the Bills are in a major rebuilding phase and aren't built to win. They simply have looked good early against a horrible Jets team, a bad Panthers offense and a Broncos team that was primed for a letdown after that big win over Dallas. I would be shocked if this is a game for long. Give me the Falcons -8 in a blowout! 

50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) 

I've been impressed with what Deshaun Watson has been able to do for this Houston offense and his play last week in what should have been an upset of the Patriots. However, I think the way they lost that game puts them in a tough spot here against a hungry and very good Tennessee team. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a defeat where you let a win slip through your fingers. 

The other big thing to keep in mind here is that Houston's offense had looked awful in their previous two games. They simply went up against a Patriots defense that might be playing as bad as any unit in the NFL. I look for this Titans defense to really make life miserable for Watson and that offense, which has a below-average offensive line. 

As for Tennessee's offense, I think they pose some problems for this Houston defense, which is built more to get after the quarterback than to stop the run. The Titans have a top level offensive line and running game, plus a mobile quarterback that can make plays when nothing is there. Tennessee has one goal and that's to win the division, so I don't see them laying an egg off the big win over Seattle. Give me the Titans -2.5! 

40* LATE NIGHT NCAAF ATS BAILOUT (Colorado +7.5) 

I was on Colorado in their loss last week at Washington and they were in it up until the 4th quarter. The offense just couldn't do enough and had 3 costly turnovers. That offense won't have any problem moving the ball against UCLA, who has been nothing short of atrocious on the defensive side of the ball this year. The Bruins just gave up 58 points and 553 yards to a Stanford offense that is as one dimensional as they come right now. 

Through the first 4 weeks, UCLA ranks 130th against the run, giving up a ridiculous 307.5 ypg. They are also 55th against the pass, allowing 217.3 ypg. There's no reason this team should be laying more than a touchdown against a quality team like Colorado with how they play defense. I actually think there's a really good chance the Buffaloes win this game outright. 

The Bruins get respect because of Josh Rosen and their passing attack, but Colorado just held Jake Browning to 160 yards on a mere 11 of 21 passing. I like the defense for the Buffaloes, which is quietly sitting 40th in the country, giving up 341.8 ypg. Give me Colorado +7.5! 

50* SEC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -7.5) 

 I think a lot of people will see this matchup and see some value in almost getting double-digits with South Carolina. Part of that being they don’t quite trust Texas A&M after what happened against UCLA and the other being we have seen the Gamecocks pull off a big upset against a good team with that 35-28 victory over NC State in their opener.

I know we are only in Week 5, but this is not the same South Carolina team that we saw upset the Wolfpack and win big on the road at Missouri. The Gamecocks have been hit hard with the injury bug. None bigger than the loss of wide out and return specialist Deebo Samuel. He had 3 touchdowns in the win over NC State, including a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. He scored twice in a span of 15 seconds in their game against Missouri, turning a 0-10 deficit into a 14-10 lead.

Keep in mind that even with his help early on, the Gamecocks come into this game with the 101st ranked offense in the country, averaging just 350.3 yards/game. Let’s also not forget they were not the better team in their win over NC State, as the Wolfpack outgained them 504 to 246 with a 29-12 edge in first downs.

Clearly the offense isn’t in good shape if they can go 3 quarters and not score a point against a Louisiana Tech team from C-USA. As bad as Texas A&M’s defense looked last week against the Razorbacks, I think they will be able to slow down this South Carolina attack.

Samuel isn’t the only key player out. They lost one of their best defensive players in senior linebacker Bryson Allen-Wiliams. They aren’t expected to have starting right tackle Zack Bailey and right guard Cory Helms is questionable. Starting running back Rico Dowdle is also questionable.

I really like the way Texas A&M was able to win last week. That’s got a buzz back into the players and I expect this team to come out fired up for their conference home opener under the lights. True freshman Kellen Mond seems to be figuring out things as well. He threw for 216 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for a team-high 109 yards in the win over the Razorbacks. I think he has a big day here and the Aggies get up early and pull away for a comfortable win and cover. Give me Texas A&M -7.5! 

50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (UCF -4) 

I really like what Scott Frost has done with this team. Last year was his first season and he took a team that went 0-12 the previous year and got them to a bowl (6-7). For those that don’t know, Frost comes over from Oregon (7 years) and brought with him that fast-tempo offense which they call “UCFast.” I think he’s a top notch coach that will could be moving on to a Power 5 program as soon as next year.

I know the defense caught a break in the game against Maryland, but the offense also did their part, scoring 38 points and racking up 428 total yards. Keep in mind that’s on the road against a Power 5 program and their first game in 3 weeks. I think the fact that the Terps did lose their QB early in that game, takes away from the win, so we aren’t see much of an overreaction here. Plus, that victory fails in comparison to Memphis’ win over UCLA.

I just trust this UCF team a lot more than I do the Tigers. I know it was a letdown spot, but that performance last week against Southern Illinois tells me this isn’t an elite team. Good teams aren’t losing at the half as a 30-point favorite to an FCS school. My biggest concern with Memphis is the defense, which ranks 116th in the country, giving up 483.7 ypg. That’s just not all from the UCLA game, they gave up over 400 yards to ULM in week 1 and 393 last week ago the Salukis.

I have a lot of confidence in that Knights offense being able to move the ball and put up points. I also think they can get some stops defensively here, allowing them to get that separation we are looking for with the cover. Memphis is a talented offensive team, but they have played all 3 of their games at home so far. More times than not, offensive production go down on the road and I’m expecting to see that here.

Even with Maryland’s QB situation, I was impressed with how they were able to shutdown the Terrapins dynamic duo out of the backfield with Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson. The two had just 73 yards on 21 attempts. They had 177 on 23 attempts against Texas. Keep in mind under their new DC, Erik Chandler, the defense only gave up 24.6 ppg and 370 ypg a season ago and this program has historically been strong on that side of the ball.

I think there’s a realistic chance that UCF scores 40+ in this game and wins via a blowout. Give me the Knights -4! 

40* NCAAB BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK (Mich St -4) 

I’m going to take Michigan State minus the points at home over the Iowa Hawkeyes. I think a lot of people could be drawn to Iowa after they nearly upset Penn State in a crushing 19-21 loss at home, while Michigan State lost by 20 at home to Notre Dame. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a gut-wrenching defeat like the Hawkeyes suffered last week.  

You also have to factor in how big of a game that was and it being a nationally televised night game. That’s was Iowa’s chance to prove to everyone they are for real and they let the opportunity slip by. 

I’m not saying Michigan State wasn’t equally up for their home game against Notre Dame last week. I just like the fact we have a Mark Dantonio coached team off an embarrassing loss at home, playing at home against an Iowa team that is getting some love from their near upset. I also think the loss to the Irish isn’t as bad as some people think. Notre Dame is one of the elite teams in the country. 

Iowa had no business even being in that game against the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes had 273 total yards for the game to Penn State’s 579 (Iowa had just 61 total yards in 1st half). They ran a mere 45 plays to Penn State’s 99 and were out first downed 29 to 11. That could have just as easily been a game they lost by 40. 

In comparison the Spartans outgained Notre Dame 495 to 355 in their 20-point loss. That game really took a turn for the worse early when Brian Lewerke threw an interception that was returned 59 yards for a touchdown. Instead of Michigan State potentially driving to make it 7-7, they are down 14-0 less than 5 minutes into the game. 

Even with that loss last week, Michigan State is 56–18 at home since 2007. I just think it’s asking too much for Iowa to make this a game on the road. I also think people are still sleeping on this Spartan team after that 3-9 finish a year ago. I know it’s early, but they rank 36th in total offense and 9th in total defense. In comparison, Iowa ranks 93rd in total offense and 78th in total defense and have had the easier schedule. I think we look back at this one and realize this should have been closer to a touchdown. Give me Michigan State -4! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Boston College -10) 

I think it’s worth the risk here to lay the points with the Eagles. This is one of the better 1-3 teams you will find in the country. Not many teams play two of the best teams in the country in their first four. That’s what BC did the last two weeks with games against Notre Dame and Clemson.

The 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest is one that makes this team look worse than it is. The Demon Deacons aren’t considered a very good team, but are off to an impressive 4-0 start. The lone win came against Northern Illinois, who has a victory of their own against Nebraska.

Some teams might not show up after a stretch like BC has had, but not a Steve Addazio coached team. I expect the Eagles to take full advantage of this opportunity to beat up on someone else. This should feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have had to go up against the past two weeks.

I also think we have seen enough from this Central Michigan team to know that it’s a team the Eagles can move the ball against. That’s really the big key with BC, as the defense has been a strength for years. The Chippewas haven’t held a team under 27 points.

They could have easily lost at home to Rhode Island in their opener and got smoked by Syracuse. This just isn’t the same caliber a Central Michigan team as previous years, as they lost a big time talent QB in Cooper Rush. Michigan transfer Shane Morris only looked good against Kansas (467 yards, 5 TDs) and I see him struggling against this Eagles defense.

What will scare a lot of people off of this game, is Boston College’s starting QB, Anthony Brown is questionable. Even if he doesn’t play, I think they will have success offensively. Keep in mind backup Darius Wade has experience an has seen action in each of the last 3 games. Whoever starts will be able to take advantage of a Chippewas defense that is ranked 93rd against the run (183 ypg) and 110th vs the pass (275.8 ypg). That’s with only two games against Power 5 teams and those two being Kansas and Syracuse. Give me the Eagles -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (NC State -14) 

A lot of people were high on this team coming into the season. Many thought they were a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic. A 28-35 loss at home to South Carolina in their opener quickly put that hype to rest. The thing is, they were the better team in that game. They outgained the Gamecocks 504-246 and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.

They have looked the part of that sleeper team since that loss, but I don’t think people trust them just yet. They credit that win to Florida State not having their starting QB. The Seminoles’ James Blackmon went 22 of 38 for 278 yards with a 1-0 TD-INT ratio. It’s not like they got horrible QB play and that’s why NC State won. It wasn’t even a big enough win to get them in the Top 25. I don’t think that sits well with this team and they come out looking to make a statement against Syracuse.

I like the potential of the Orange under 2nd year head coach Dino Babers. I think they would have been a much bigger dog here had it not been for them keeping it close at LSU last week. Keep in mind they were getting more than 3 TD’s at LSU and are now laying getting less than 2 against a team that might be just as good, or even better.

That is the same LSU team that got embarrassed by a Mississippi State team that couldn’t hang with Georgia. At the same time, it’s not like Syracuse was all that impressive in their first 3 games. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, who was outscored 62-9 in two games against Vanderbilt and Minnesota. They did beat Central Michigan by 24, but the Chippewas need OT to beat Rhode Island at home.

Last year each of Syracuse’s 8 losses were by 15 or more and they really struggled to keep it close against the top teams in the ACC. I just think the Orange are going to run in a buzz saw here with that dominant defensive line of NC State. Keep in mins that Syracuse likes to play fast and if the offense isn’t working, things tend to get ugly in a hurry.

We should also feel confident that NC State is able to move the ball against this Orange defense. Syracuse’s weakness is their pass defense, which just let LSU throw for more than 300 yards. The passing game is the strength of the NC State offense. The Wolfpack are just 87th in rushing (146.3 ypg) compared to 15th in pass (314.8 ypg). Give me NC State -14! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (USC -6) 

I think we are going to see a similar type of dominance here by USC to that of their blowout win at home over Stanford back in Week 2. A game they were only favored in by 3.5-points after struggling to take care of Western Michigan on the road. They failed to cover at Cal last week, but that was an awful spot for USC off two huge games against Stanford and Texas and they could have easily covered. This team is one of the best in the country and are on full alert of how good this Washington State team is. As big of an advantage as it is playing at home in these weekday night games, I think the Cougars are simply outclassed on the field. They are one dimensional offensively and the Trojans have the pass rushers and playmakers in the secondary to make life miserable for Washington State's Luke Falk. Give me the Trojans -6! 

40* BEARS/PACKERS BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bears +7.5) 

The Packers have been decimated at the offensive tackle spot. Both starters are doubtful for this game and they have three others on IR.

It’s really limited this Green Bay offense, who hasn’t been able to get anything going on the ground and has struggled to give Rodgers the time needed to attack teams through the air. The Packers managed just 64 yards rushing against Cincinnati last week and only had 59 the previous week against the Falcons. It’s unlikely they get anything going here, as the Bears come in ranked 8th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 83.7 ypg. Last week they held Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers to just 70 yards. They also sacked Ben Roethlisberger 3 times, limiting him to just 22 of 39 passing.

I think it’s going to be hard for Green Bay to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Let’s also not overlook how well Chicago has played early on this year. They were right there with the Falcons at home in Week 1 and just beat a really good Steelers team. They did get blowout on the road against the Bucs in Week 2, but that wasn’t as bad as the 29-7 final would suggest. Chicago was basically even in total yards, but were done in by 4 turnovers.

Something else that can’t be overlooked is the Green Bay defense letting a Bengals offense that couldn’t do anything the first two weeks move the ball with some success. I’m not saying the Bears are going to score at will here, but they should be able to sustain some drives and most importantly finish them with points on the scoreboard.

Bears head coach John Fox has a history of getting his teams’ to play well on the road against division opponents. In fact, he’s an impressive 31-13 ATS in this spot over his NFL head coaching career. Fox is also a strong 14-4 ATS in road games against teams that struggle to run the ball, averaging 90 or less yards/game. Give me the Bears +7.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5)

I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5! 

40* NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK (Bengals +8)

The biggest issue I have with this spread is Green Bay’s injury situation on offense. Multiple members of the offensive line are banged up, as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Those injuries clearly played a role in last week’s struggles against the Falcons and it remains to be seen how healthy and effective any of those injured players will be against the Bengals.

One thing that’s been lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati’s disastrous start to the season is that the Bengals have actually played solid defense the first two weeks. Considering how little support the offense has provided, the Bengals giving up just 33 points over two games is rather impressive. Geno Atkins already has three sacks on the season, and I would expect he and the team’s other pass-rushing threats will be able to create some problems against a banged up Green Bay offensive line. 

Obviously, the Bengals actually being able to locate the end zone will be important to the Bengals being able to beat the spread. But if Cincinnati can keep feeding A.J. Green the ball as much as possible, he’s bound to make something positive happen. I also don’t see the Packers having an easy time moving the ball either. This could end up being a low-scoring game that helps Cincinnati stay close and beat the spread.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Falcons -3) 

I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a lot out of the Falcons this season coming into the year, but I really like what I have seen in the first two weeks and like the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal on the road against a Lions team that has benefited from playing a couple teams with horrible offensive line play in the Cardinals and Giants. 

I just think Detroit's defense is getting way too much respect against this high-powered Atlanta offense and while the Lions will score, I don't see them scoring enough to keep this game close. Teams listed as a dog that have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their first two games are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Give me the Falcons -3! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Giants +6.5)

I know New York hasn’t looked good in their first two games, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. I fully expect the Giants to make some adjustments with their offensive line and make sure that Eli Manning gets some protection.

It’s also going to help that Odell Beckham Jr will be another week removed from his ankle injury. He was clearly not 100% last week against the Lion. He caught just 4 passes for 36 yards. Look for a much bigger game out of him. I also like what I’m hearing about New York making a move to Orleans Darkwa at running back. He’s impressed in limited action and any improvement with their ground attack will help the passing game get going.

This is also a hurting Eagles defense right now. They aren’t expected to have their top corner in Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks to start the year. They could also be without starting defensive end Brandon Graham, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia also has starting safety Rodney McLeod and backup Jaylen Watkins listed as questionable with hamstring injuries.

What you can’t forget with the Giants is that while the offense isn’t performing up to their potential, they still have one of the leagues top defenses. One that I think really matchups up well with an Eagles offense that struggles to run the ball. At the same time, Carson Wentz is a QB that likes to take chances and will turn the ball over.

Keep in mind the Eagles had just 13-points against a Chiefs defense missing one of it’s best players in Eric Berry up until the final seconds when they added a late TD. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but given how desperate they are to avoid an 0-3 start and the defenses ability to keep them in the game, I would have to take the points in this one.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) 

I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. 

I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +12) 

I think this line is one the public will jump on Washington. Given what happened in last year’s title game and the fact that this is short number for a Top 10 team to be laying against an unranked opponent. That tells me the oddsmakers like this Colorado team to hang tough and so do I.

Revenge is a big time motivator on the collegiate level and this is the game that Colorado had circled on their schedule. It’s one thing to lose a close game. It’s another to get embarrassed like they did in the Pac-12 title game. Expect a fired up Buffaloes team that isn’t just coming into to keep it close, but win this game outright.

Washington is a talented team and a program that is headed in the right direction under Chris Petersen. I just don’t know that they aren’t getting a little too much respect off of last year’s trip to the playoffs. Especially on the road against what I think is a really good Colorado team.

People aren't giving the Buffaloes the respect they deserve. I don’t blame them. It’s hard to trust a team that's been horrible for so many years. Prior to last year’s shocking 10-4 finish, Colorado hadn’t qualified for a bowl (6 wins) since 2007.

Head coach Mike MacIntyre has done this before. Taking a miserable San Jose State program to a 12-win season in his 3rd year on the job. He’s finally recruited enough talent (had very little to work with when he got here) to compete and would expect them to be a threat in the Pac-12 going forward.

I also think we have seen some concerning signs for Washington, despite a lot of blowout wins. Their opener against Rutgers was a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 368-369.

The other big concern with Washington is their running game. The Huskies rank 96th in the country in rushing at just 129.7 ypg. That’s with them rushing for 213 yards against Montana. They had just 84 yards rushing against Rutgers and a mere 92 against Fresno State. That puts a lot of pressure on Jake Browning to do it all for the offense, which isn’t easy on the road.

I really think this is a game that Colorado can pull off the upset. Keep in mind that they went a perfect 6-0 at home last year. That included wins against two ranked teams. Add in the double-digit spread to work with and it certainly feels like the right side. Give me the Buffaloes +12! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Troy -15.5) 

Troy hasn't covered the spread yet in 2017 (0-3) and I just think it has them way undervalued here against an Akron team that isn't any good. The Zips list 52-0 at Penn State to open the year and that was 35-0 at the half. Last week they lost at home to an Iowa State team that will be lucky to make a bowl by a final of 41-14. The Trojans slow start has a lot to do with them having played on the road against a very good Boise State team and another road game last week against an up and coming New Mexico State team that held their own on the road against Arizona State. Troy's due for a breakout performance and I feel like this is the perfect spot for them to lay a beating on the Zips. Give me the Trojans -15.5! 

100* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Michigan -10) 

I can’t say enough about how impressive a job Brohm has done in such a short period of time with the Boilermakers. I could see why people would be tempted to take Purdue here at home, given how well they have played and Michigan not playing all that great the first few weeks. I just think it’s asking a lot of the Boilermakers to keep it within single-digits here against the Wolverines.

Not to take anything away from Purdue, but I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this line. I believe most would have had this line closer to 21 than 10 prior to the season starting. I think the Boilermakers offense is going to be in for a rude awakening in this one. While the offense hasn’t performed up to expectation, the Wolverine defense has been outstanding once again. Michigan ranks 9th against the run (82.3 ypg) and 12th against the pass (125.7 ypg). While Purdue has played some good teams, the best defense they have faced statistically is Ohio, which ranks 66th and that’s with them allowing a mere 108 yards in a 59-0 win over Hampton in their opener.

As for the offensive struggles for Michigan, it’s really been about their inability to finish drives in the red-zone. They have been the worst in the country in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Last week they had 4 trips inside the 20 and all 4 times had to settle for field goals. That’s definitely a concern, but I just think a team as well-coached as the Wolverines will figure it out and once they do, look out.

A big key to this one could be Purdue’s offense not being able to sustain drives, which in turn will have their defense on the field for long stretches and likely out of gas come the 2nd half. I also don’t think that Harbaugh will allow Michigan to overlook Purdue given how strong the Boilermakers have started and how poorly the Wolverines have played. With a bye week on deck, there’s no excuse for Michigan to not lay it all on the line. Give me the Wolverines -10! 

40* NCAAF SMALL CONFERENCE ATS BLOODBATH (Miami, OH -1)

Love the RedHawks in this spot. Miami has gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, which makes this game feel like one they have to have. I don't think there's any question they are the better team and feel this line would have been closer to 7 if Miami's first few games would have gone a little differently. They lost by 5 at Marshall in their opener and that was with the Thundering Herd scoring 3 non-offensive touchdowns. They then blew a big lead late against Cincinnati last week. Central Michigan has a 17-41 loss to Syracuse and needed OT to beat Rhode Island at home. These two played last year and Miami won 37-17. The RedHawks have 17 returning starters from that team and should have no problem pulling out the victory. Give me Miami (OH) -1! 

50* UTAH/ARIZONA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY

Utah over recent years has been a team built on a more conservative rushing approach. They are really opening it up this year under new offensive coordinator Troy Taylor, who had Eastern Washington averaging 42 ppg and 530 ypg last year. Sophomore Tyler Huntley has really turned heads with his play on the field, as he's got the looks of one of the country's top dual threat QBs.  He's completed 72.1% of his attempts for 868 yards, while also rushing for a team-high 212 yards and 3 scores. He’s really enjoyed the addition of wide out Darren Carrington II, who transferred in from Oregon. Carrington all ready has 26 catches for 409 yards and 4 scores. The former Duck went as far as to compare Huntley to a young Marcus Mariota, who he played with. They just entered the Top 25 this week (had been ranked No. 22 last week in the coaches poll). I just don’t think the public or the books have quite caught on to how good this team is. I know it’s early, but they rank 39th in total offense and 12th in total defense. The big key here for more is the Utes run defense, which is 2nd in the country, allowing just 49.3 yards/game. Arizona really needs to be able to run the ball to have any success offensively. In their two wins they have 506 rushing yards against Northern Arizona and 326 against UTEP. In their loss to Houston, they had just 152. Give me the Utes -3.5! 

50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5) 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BLOWOUT (Panthers -7)

I'm big on Carolina this season, as I think we are going to see them jump right back into being near the top of the NFC. I really like the decision to keep Newton from running and use the backs more. They couldn't have looked much better on the road against the 49ers in Week 1. Buffalo also got a win and cover, but against the worst team in the league and that was a close game going into the 4th quarter. Luke Keuchley and the Panthers defense will be able to take away the Bills strength, which is their running game. That's going to allow Carolina to open this thing up and win here by double-digits. Give me the Panthers -7! 

40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots -6) 

40* PRIME TIME NCAAF PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR (Texas +16) 

It's amazing how quickly everyone jumped off the Texas bandwagon after they got upset as a big favorite at home in their opener against Maryland. The Longhorns responded to that loss as well as you could, crushing San Jose State 56-0 with a ridiculous 623 to 171 edge in total yards and 32-8 advantage in first downs. I think the public would be on them against just about anyone than USC, who just routed Stanford. The Trojans are good, but this is a ton of points for a team coming off as big as win as USC is. They had that game against Stanford circled on the calendar after losing to them last year. We already saw the Trojans not bring it all against Western Michigan, allowing the Broncos to hang around in the 4th quarter. Texas has enough offense to make this a game. Give me the Longhorns +16! 

40* NCAAF BIG FAVORITE ATS BLOWOUT (Houston -22.5)

I really like the Cougars here. Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar this season, as everyone has written them off after Todd Herman left to take over at Texas. There's a ton of talent still on this Houston team. That includes possibly the best defensive player in the country in defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who makes everyone around him better by his ability to live in the opponents backfield. The offense added Texas A&M transfer and former 5* QB recruit Kyle Allen to ease the loss of Greg Ward. Rice is a bad team that has struggled to adjust to the new era of spread offenses and were also no match against Stanford in the opener giving up more than 600 yards. I see the Cougars putting this away early and coasting to a win and cover. Give me Houston -22.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK (W Michigan -20.5)

I have really been impressed with Western Michigan, as they have come out of the gates swinging and hung in there with both USC and Michigan State. Know one expected anything out of this team after P.J. Fleck left, but there's a ton of talent on this roster. Idaho was far from impressive in a 28-6 win against Sacramento State and then lost at home 16-44 to a UNLV team that lost 40-43 in Week 1 to Howard in the biggest upset in CFB history (based on spread). The Broncos aren't going to take this likely after their 0-2 start and this will feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have faced. Give me Western Michigan -20.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDER ATS SHOCKER (Northern Illinois +13)

This is a game that I wouldn't be surprised if the dog won outright. Northern Illinois has been down the past couple of seasons, but this is one of the top 'Group of 5' programs and they have already proven themselves against Boston College out of the ACC, nearly beating the Eagles on the road. Key here is Nebraska is primed for a letdown after the game against the Ducks last week in Oregon and homecoming/Big Ten opener on deck. The other key here is Nebraska's defense has been bad. They gave up 36 points and nearly 500 yards to Arkansas St out of the Sun Belt in their opener (outgained on the game). Northern Illinois is only giving up 104 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry against the run. If they can keep Nebraska from running all over, they will be in this thing until the end. Give me the Huskies +13! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC BLOODBATH (Air Force +23) 

I think this is too many points for Michigan to be laying at home. Air Force runs the triple-option and while the Wolverines defense has played well early, I could see them struggling against this attack. The other thing with the option offense is that it leads to a lot of drives that eat up clock and an even bigger key here is that the Wolverines can keep the Falcons from finishing those drives with touchdowns. Michigan's offense hasn't exactly looked great to start and I think they struggle to find a rhythm here. Also not a great spot against Michigan, as this is the easiest game in the first 4 before their bye, as they open up conference play next week. Give me the Falcons +23! 

50* NCAAF WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona -23) 

I know 23-points is a lot to lay on the road, but I don't think it's near enough for the gap in talent between these two teams. I'm not the least bit concerned with Arizona's poor showing last week against Houston. In fact, I had the Cougars in that one. The Miners are one of the worst teams in the FBS. They got rolled 56-7 by Oklahoma and that was with the Sooners having a massive lookahead game to Ohio State. They followed it up by losing 14-31 at home to Rice of all teams, who you might recall got absolutely destroyed by Stanford. UTEP allowed Rice to rush for 306 yards and average more than 6 yards/carry. Arizona's defense played well against Houston and are better on that side of the ball than they have been. The offense should score at will and I wouldn't be shocked if they had this covered well before the half. Give me the Wildcats -23! 

50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6) 

Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6! 

40* NEW MEXICO/BOISE ST ATS KNOCKOUT (Boise St -14) 

I know the Broncos have had their troubles covering at home of late, but I just feel there's too much value on Boise St laying just 2 touchdowns to the Lobos to pass up a play on them. This line has dropped and some of that likely has to do with the injury status of starting QB Brett Rypien, who has been listed as questionable. The thing is, the offense has actually looked better in the first two weeks under backup Montell Cozart (KU transfer). In fact, Cozart has just 25 fewer yards on 2 fewer attempts passing with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Rypien hasn't even thrown a TD. Cozart also adds another dynamic with his ability to run. He's second on the team with 108 yards on the ground. I think he's going to start and that only makes me like the Broncos more here. New Mexico was down 30-5 in the 4th quarter before a late rally last week. I hear a lot about Boise St suffering a let down after blowing that big lead late against Washington State. I think it has the opposite effect and they roll in this one. Give me the Broncos -14! 

50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3)

I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Houston PK)

Houston had their Week 1 game called due to Hurricane Harvey and I think that's helping us here. The public isn't really sure what to think of the Cougars, who lost what everyone perceived to be the best up and coming coach in the country in Tom Herman. No doubt the departure of Herman takes them down a notch, but people are overlooking the talent he left behind. The offensive scheme will be the same and they added in an experienced starter at QB in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen. On defense they have one of the best players in the country in Ed Oliver, who was an All-American as a true freshman last year. He's the kind of talent that can make so many players around him better. I'm down on the Wildcats this year and don't see them being able to keep pace. Give me Houston -110! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT PUBLIC MASSACRE (USC -5.5)

I'm not overreacting to USC's less than stellar start to the season against a Western Michigan team that is way better than anyone is giving them credit for. I think the Trojans were caught off guard by how much talent was on that Broncos roster. Especially given the fact you know they were looking ahead to this huge revenge game against Stanford, which they feel is their first big test to getting to the college football playoffs. I look for a much more focused USC team in this one and I don't think Stanford will be able to do enough here to keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -5.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO BRAINER (Notre Dame -5)

For whatever reason people aren't buying into the Irish's 49-16 blowout win over a Temple team that is better than they are getting credit for. I love the fact that people are doubting this team, as they play their best with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia's 31-10 win over App St was closer than the final score would indicate. In that game, Bulldogs starter Jacob Eason injured his knee and is out for this game. True freshman Jake Fromm is getting a ton of praise, but I'd be willing the nerves kick in on the road in one of the most historic venues in college football. This is a statement  game for Notre Dame and I'm confident they deliver. Give me the Irish -5! 

40* NCAAF WEEK 2 VEGAS DOG OF THE DAY (Western Mich +7.5)

I don't think Michigan State looked as good as they are getting credit for in their 35-10 win over Bowling Green. The offense was hit or miss and 7 of those points came via the defense. Bowling Green use to be a formidable foe out of the MAC, but that's no longer the case. Most people just threw Western Michigan under the bus after losing their head coach in Fleck, NFL WR in Corey Davis and starting QB, but this team came to play against a very good USC team and traded blows in the 4th quarter with the Trojans. I think Fleck left a ton of talent in Western Michigan and I think there's a chance they pull off the big upset they nearly had a week ago. Give me the Broncos +7.5!

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Northwestern -2)

Northwestern got caught off-guard by a much improved Nevada team, but were able to pull away for a 31-20 win. I expect a much more focused Wildcats team in Saturday's game against Duke, who I think they are far superior to. The Blue Devils 60-7 win over NC Central looks good on paper, but it was a similar performance to their 49-6 win over NC Central to start out last season. They followed that with a 14-24 home loss to a below-average Wake Forest team and proceeded to finish the year 4-8. I look for Northwestern to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. Give me the Wildcats -2! 

40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS WEEK 1 ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +9.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Va Tech -4.5)

A lot of hype with West Virginia due to the addition of former Florida quarterback Will Grier. While he's a good talent, he hasn't played in over a year and the Mountaineers lost a ton of talent off last year's 10-win team. In fact, they are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country with just 8 starters and 35 lettermen returning from last season. I was impressed with what Justin Fuente did in his first season on the job in Blacksburg and expect this program to get back to that elite level we saw during the prime Beamer years. I also think the ACC is hands down better than the Big 12. Give me Virginia Tech -4.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF RIVALARY GAME OF THE MONTH (NC State -5)

40* NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (UNC -12.5)

Both of these teams lose a high-caliber starting quarterback. I have a lot more faith in Larry Fedora at UNC to get the Tar Heel offense rolling in 2017 than I do with Cal and first year head coach Justin Wilcox, who is a defensive minded guy. North Carolina has scored 30+ ppg in each of the first 5 seasons under Fedora and I expect LSU transfer Brandon Harris to be dynamic in this offense that has thrived with mobile quarterbacks. If he doesn't end up starting, that only means they have someone more talented, which isn't a bad thing. As for the Golden Bears, this is a major transition season and they simply don't have the talent at QB they have had the past two seasons with Goff and Webb. Not to mention this has been a historically bad road team and they are playing clear-across the country against a Tar Heels team that I think has a lot to prove. Give me North Carolina -12.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (E. Michigan -14) 

I got no problem laying 2 touchdowns with the Eagles at home against the likes of Charlotte. These two teams played last year and Eastern Michigan won on the road 37-19 and it wasn't as competitive as the final score would indicate. That was part of a major turnaround season for the Eagles, who went 7-6, making a bowl game for the first time since 1987. Not a big surprise given the track record of head coach Chris Creighton, who finally got his guys on the field in year 3. Now heading into year 4, this team looks even better than last year with 16 returning starters. They aren't going to overlook Charlotte with this being their season opener and while the Eagles looked improved, the 49ers figure to take a step back (went 4-8 last year), as they return just 12 starters and lost big time pieces to the puzzle on both sides of the ball. Give me Eastern Michigan -14! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio State -21)

This is a statement game for the Buckeyes, who I think is the most talented team in the country going into the season. Ohio State was embarrassed in the playoffs, getting shutout by Clemson 31-0. Urban Meyer now has the full attention of his team, which I think had some trouble dealing with the success of winning it all a couple years ago. They have an experienced QB in JT Barrett, plus big time talent all over the field on both sides of the ball. They also have a new OC in Kevin Wilson, who was let go by Indiana. I think there is some bad blood with Wilson and the Hoosiers. I see the Buckeyes really laying it on Indiana here in support of Wilson, though they likely would have even if he wasn't with the team. Give me the Buckeyes -21! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE (Buffalo +24)

I tip my hat to P.J. Fleck and what he was able to do at Western Michigan. I just think he's got the Gophers way over-valued going into the season. Fleck has a lot of work to do with this Minnesota team, who weren't as impressive as their 9-wins would suggest last year. Four of those wins came against Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue in the Big 10 and two more were against Oregon State and Indiana State. He's got to replace a 4-year starter at QB on offense and the defense only has 5 guys back. Buffalo should see a big spike in production with 14 starters returning and now being in the 3rd year under their head coach. I see them hanging around here and making this a game. Give me the Bulls +24! 

50* NCAAF OPENING DAY ATS KNOCKOUT (USF -21) 

I think there's some who are a bit cautious backing USF due to the coaching change, but I'm more than willing to lay this big number on the Bulls. San Jose State is completely outclassed here and simply don't have the talent on defense to slow down USF's star quarterback Quinton Flowers, who is almost as dynamic a dual threat QB as Louisville Lamar Jackson. Last year Flowers threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions and had a ridiculous 1,530 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. Spartans are in the first year of a new head coach with new schemes on both sides of the ball. I think USF has this one covered early in the 1st half and continues to poor it on. Give me the Bulls -21! 

Bonus 2-Team 7-pt Teaser - USF -14 & Oregon St +10.5

50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3) 

I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play  (Falcons -5.5)

It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5!

50* NFL Divisional Rd Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -1)

Forget the fact that the Steelers won in a blowout in the regular season. That result means a little, especially given how early in the season it was. The Chiefs are a much better team than they were in that first meeting. Offensively rookie sensation Tyreek Hill was barely a part of the offense. Now he’s arguably their most important player alongside tight end Travis Kelce. On defense they didn’t have Justin Houston, who should be full go after getting multiple weeks off.

40* NFL Texans/Patriots ATS Knockout (Patriots -15)

I believe the books have set this line so high to not only entice action on the Texans, but to keep the public from pounding the Patriots. It's working, as this is the least bet game on the board. While the public might be hesitant to lay this big number on New England, I have no problem backing the Patriots to win by 3 scores at home. New England beat the Texans 27-0 at home in the regular season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I see no reason why they won't win by at least 17 with Brady under center. The thing is, it's well known that the Texans defense is good. However, the Pats have had two weeks to prepare for this defense, plus have already seen them in action. What makes them so good is their pass rush, most notably Clowney. Like they did in the first meeting, when they made Watt a non-factor, they will do the same with Clowney. Brady's dink and dunk approach will be able to move the ball. On the flip side of this, New England defense will be ready for Osweiler and his limitations and should be able to generate a couple turnovers and win here by 20+. Give me the Patriots -15!

50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5)

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Auburn +3)

I like the value here with the Tigers as a 3-point dog against the Sooners, as I actually have Auburn rated better than Oklahoma and expect them to win this game outright. Oklahoma and the Big 12 are overrated and I'm just not buying this Sooners team being as good as everyone makes them out to be. Auburn has the talent defensively to give Oklahoma's offense trouble and the weapons to attack what I feel is a very suspect Sooners defense. Give me Auburn +3!

40* NFL Blockbuster ATS Knockout (Chiefs -4) 

The Chiefs had one of the more remarkable comebacks of the season when they hosted the Chargers back in Week 1. I believe that has this line a little lower than it should be. Kansas City is coming off one of their best performances of the season last week against the Broncos and are the only team with something to play for in this game. This is also not the same Chargers team that jumped out to that big lead in Week 1. San Diego has been decimated with injuries and clearly are struggling to find motivation down the stretch with their loss last week to the Browns. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are 21-4 in their last 25 regular season games, this team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. I look for KC to rack up their 6th straight win over the Chargers and think there's a good chance they do so by double-digits. Give me the Chiefs -4!