50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I just think Minnesota is getting way too much respect here coming off of their bye. Seahawks are 9-2 on MNF since Pete Carroll came to town, which speaks volumes to just how tough it is to win at CenturyLink Field in prime time games. The Vikings clearly aren't a bad team with a 8-3 record, but it worth noting that they currently don't have a single win against a team that currently has a winning record. In their last 3 games they lost at KC without Mahomes, won at Dallas by 4 despite getting outgained by 79 yards and had to rally from 20 down to beat the Broncos at home. Seattle is also a team that I think has gotten better with each week and with a win can take over the top spot in the NFC West and put themselves in a position for a first round bye. Give me Seattle -2.5! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs -10) 

I'll take my chances here with KC not just beating the Raiders but laying it on Oakland. Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and Andy Reid is as good as it gets coming off a bye. Reid is 17-3 as a head coach off a bye week in the regular-season. With a chance to basically lock up the AFC West with a win against the Raiders, I think we see the Chiefs make a statement Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Give me Kansas City -10! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +6) 

I'll take my chances here with the 49ers all day long at this price. The Ravens are a great team, but Baltimore is way overvalued coming off that big blowout win over the Rams on MNF. If there's one team that's built to slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens offense, it's this 49ers squad. San Francisco's got the talent up front to keep Jackson from running wild. At the same time, I think the 49ers are also good enough to go score for score with Baltimore. I think this going to be tight the entire way and this is just too many points to pass up. Give me the 49ers +6! 

40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Panthers -10) 

I'll take my chances here with Carolina covering as a double-digit home favorite against the Redskins. I know Washington pulled off a win last week against Detroit, but that was at home and against the Lions. Big thing to note from that game is the Haskins and Redskins offense did next to nothing in that game and I just don't think he's ready for the NFL. Panthers have been struggling of late, but are not going to throw in the towel just yet. I expect a max effort here at home and that should be more than enough to win here by at least two touchdowns. Give me the Panthers -10! 

50* NFL AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -2.5) 

I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.

What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.

What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.

One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.

Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (North Carolina -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels laying it on their in-state rivals and winning here by at least 2 touchdowns. UNC is going to be extremely motivated, as they need to win here to make a bowl, which is a pretty big deal given it's year one under new head coach Mack Brown. As much as NC State would love to play spoiler, they just don't have the talent to do so. These two teams have played the same 4 teams. UNC has a +2 scoring average in those 4 games and the Wolfpack own a -27 scoring average. This is a complete mismatch. Give me the Tar Heels -10.5! 

50* TX A&M/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M +17) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas A&M as I just don't like this spot at all for LSU. The Tigers have already clinched a spot in next week's SEC title game against Georgia and a loss here does not hurt them in their hopes of making the playoffs. As long as they beat the Bulldogs they are in. I'm not saying they are going to lose this game, I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to lay it on the Aggies. If they get up big, they are going to start looking ahead and I don't see Texas A&M quitting at any point. Aggies are arguably the best 7-4 team in the country, as their 4 losses have come against Clemson, Auburn, Alabama and Georgia. Their biggest setback in any of those games was a 19-point loss to Alabama and they were more competitive than that final score would indicate. Give me the Aggies +17! 

50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Oregon State +20)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon State as a massive underdog. Usually I would look to fade a team like the Beavers off such a crushing loss like they suffered at Washington State last week, but not this time around. Oregon State is getting up to play Oregon no matter what the circumstances and they desperately need a win here to get bowl eligible.

While I’m 100% confident we get the best Oregon State has to offer, I got massive concerns here with Oregon showing up for this game. As tough as the Beavers loss had to be to swallow, it comes no where close to the heartache that the Ducks are dealing with from last week’s upset loss at Arizona State. That loss ended any hopes Oregon had of making the 4-team playoff.

With the playoffs out of the picture, there’s nothing for the Ducks to play for. They already got the Pac-12 North locked up and know they are going to be playing Utah in the Pac-12 title game with a chance to ruin the Utes hopes of making the playoff. This is such a bad spot for Oregon that I not only think they don’t cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they lost this game outright.

It reminds me a lot of a game I gave out a few years ago (2016) with Kentucky +27 at Louisville. The then Lamar Jackson led Cardinals were ranked No. 11 and were without a doubt the more talented team. However, they had just suffered their second loss of the season the week before at Houston, ending their hopes of making the playoffs. A 6-5 Kentucky team defeated their in-state rivals 41-38. Give me the Beavers +20!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan State -22.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan State covering a big number at home against Maryland. I just don't think there's enough talent or fight left in this Terps team, which has been outscored 217-38 in their last 4 games. Michigan State snapped their losing streak with a 27-0 win over Rutgers last week and we can bank on a big effort in their home finale with them still needing one more win to get to a bowl game. Maryland has allowed 300+ rushing yards in 3 of their last 4, so I really don't have a lot of concern with the Sparty offense being able to move the ball. On the flip side, I wouldn't be shocked if the Terps didn't score a single point. Give me Michigan State -22.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miami -8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the 8.5 at Duke on Saturday. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on Miami after an embarrassing loss to FIU last week as a 21-point favorite. Prior to that setback the Hurricanes had won and covered 3 straight. As for Duke, the Blue Devils are really struggling to get anything going. Duke has lost 5 straight and have not covered the spread since September. Miami is 17-5 ATS last 22 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and Duke is 0-6 ATS last 6 conference home games. Give me the Hurricanes -8.5! 

50* WISC/MINN BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Minnesota +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Minnesota as a home dog against the Badgers. I was really impressed with how the Gophers came out last week in a massive letdown spot against Northwestern and I think there's no way they should be a home dog in this one. We saw just how crazy the atmosphere can be at TCF Bank Stadium when Minnesota knocked off Penn State a few weeks ago. It's going to be even more electric with the Gophers now 1-win away from playing in the Big Ten title game. As for Wisconsin, I just think they have flatlined a bit in the 2nd half. The defense that was so good early on has allowed 21+ in 5 straight games and I just think they are going to have a hard time slowing down the Gophers on the road. Give me Minnesota +3! 

40* OHIO ST/MICHIGAN EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Wolverines covering as a near double-digit home dog against the Buckeyes. I really think Michigan has a decent shot at winning this game outright. We saw last week that Ohio State isn't invincible, as they only beat Penn State by 11 at home. As for the Wolverines, I think they have only got better with each passing week, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The underdog has covered each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 in this series. Give me the Wolverines +9.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Missouri -12.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Tigers cashing in a win here by at least 14 and I actually think they easily win by 20. This game to me feels like a lot like Nebraska at Maryland, where the Cornhuskers desperately needed a win and were laying a short number against an awful Terps team. Missouri is 5-6 and needs a win here to get to bowl eligibility. Arkansas has lost 5 straight by 30 or more an are now asked to lose by less than 14 in a game that means nothing to them. Give me the Tigers -12.5

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Iowa -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Iowa. I think with Nebraska coming off that blowout win over Maryland, the Hawks failing to cover last week against Illinois at home and the Cornhuskers needing this win to get to bowl eligibility has a lot of people talking themselves into backing Nebraska. I just think it's a bad matchup for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska's offense is built on their ground game and this Iowa defense is built to stop the run. Cornhuskers also aren't great at stopping the run. When the Hawks have success on the ground they are really tough to beat. Give me Iowa -5.5! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Va Tech -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a field goal at in-state rival Virginia.  This is for all the marbles, as the winner of this game will win the Coastal and get a shot at Clemson in the ACC title game. Not only do I think Virginia tech is the better team, but they have owned their in-state rivals, winning every single meeting between the two programs since the Hokies joined the ACC back in 2004. Virginia Tech has been one of the best kept secrets over the 2nd half. Most people wrote off this team after a 45-10 loss at home to Duke, but they have won 6 of 7 since and put together one of the best turnarounds on the defensive side of the ball that I can remember. Hokies have covered 6 straight and I just see no reason why you would jump off the money train at this point. Give me Virginia Tech -2.5! 

40* SAINTS/FALCONS PRIME-TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New Orleans winning by at least a touchdown. Hard to imagine the Falcons defense having as much success as they did in the first meeting, making it hard to believe Atlanta can score enough here to keep this close, especially when they are likely to be without star wide out Julio Jones. 

I also don't trust the mental state of the Falcons. Prior to that upset against the Saints in the first meeting, the Falcons were coming out of their bye believing if they won that game they had a shot to turn their season around. Now there's next to no hope for this team. They are 6-games back of the Saints in the NFC South with 5 to play, so the division is out of the picture. They are also 5-games back of the Vikings with 5 to play for the final Wild Card and have 7 teams in front of them. I just don't know that this being a division home game is enough to get the juices flowing.

Lastly, the Saints are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder after what happened in that last meeting. They still got plenty of motivation to finish with one of the two best records in the NFC and with a win they can lock up the NFC South title. Give me the Saints -6.5!

50* BILLS/COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bills. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.

First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.

At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.

One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.

I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ohio -27.5) 

There’s just no way I’m putting my hard earned money on the Zips. I don’t care that they are winless or that this will be their home finale (senior day). Ohio is hands down the better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by four touchdowns.

Don’t be fooled by Akron’s cover last week against the RedHawks. Miami (OH) had nothing to play for in that game, as they had already locked up the top spot in the MAC East and all they are focused on right now is being 100% ready to go for the MAC Championship Game next week. If there was a game the Zips were going to cover, that was it.

This would be a different story if Ohio was already bowl eligible and were just playing for pride, but that’s not the case. If the Bobcats didn’t care about getting to a bowl, they wouldn’t have showed up last week at Bowling Green. I see no reason not to expect a similar beatdown on the road this week.

Bobcats are going to be able to score at will. A big reason for that is they should be able to run at will. Ohio is averaging 213 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Zips defense that is allowing 210 ypg on the ground. Give me the Bobcats -27.5.

50* PACKERS/49ERS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers -3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with San Francisco getting right at home on Sunday Night Football against the Packers. I think after a couple of lackluster performances the 49ers are going to lay a beating on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I just don't think that Green Bay offensive line has any chance here of keeping that 49ers front from making life miserable for Rodgers. On the flip side of this, I think San Francisco's offense is poised to get back on track with the return of tight end George Kittle, who missed the last two. 49ers are also expected to have both wideouts Deebo Samuel and Emanuel Sanders after both were listed as questionable, they are now probable. Give me San Francisco -3! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with New England winning by 6 or more at home against the Cowboys. I just think New England is the far superior team. Not only that, they just don't lose at home, especially at this juncture of the season. Patriots are a ridiculous 33-13 ATS at home with Tom Brady at quarterback. I think that offense will be able to move the ball here, but more than anything I think a Cowboys offense that is hurting on the offensive line is going to have a miserable time moving the football. GIve me the Patriots -5.5! 

40* NFL BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Bills -4) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills laying a short number at home. I just think people are so quick to want to fade Buffalo because of the easy schedule they have played. I’m not about to sit here and say it hasn’t been easy or this team is as good as their 7-3 record, but this is just too good a price to pass up.

I also think we are seeing Denver get some love due to the fact that they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog last week at Minnesota and are a perfect 2-0 ATS with Brandon Allen at quarterback for the injured Joe Flacco.

I was on Denver last week in their near upset over the Vikings, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Broncos were way undervalued at +10.5. They were also coming off their bye week and facing a Minnesota team that was primed for a letdown with their bye on deck and fresh off two huge prime time games against the Chiefs and Cowboys.

The biggest thing for me and jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week is how they lost that game to the Vikings. I don’t care how big of a dog you are, losing a game you lead by 20-points at the half and by 16 going into the 4th quarter is one that is extremely difficult to bounce back. I think it’s that much harder when you have to go on the road against a hungry Bills team that desperately needs to win this game with their next 4 games against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. Not to mention that loss to the Vikings was one the Broncos had to have to have any shot at getting back in the AFC playoff race.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Denver came out and played their worst game of the season on Sunday. Give me the Bills -4!

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Lions -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Detroit laying a short number at the Redskins. I just think this is a good price on the Lions. I know they have lost 3 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row, but they have played well here of late. Not have Stafford sucks, but I like what I've seen from Driskel against a couple of decent defenses in the Bears and Cowboys. He should have a big game here against a Redskins defense that was just shredded by Sam Darnold last week. The other big thing is the fact that Washington is sending out Haskins at QB and he's just not NFL ready and a big liability on the field. Detroit's defense should have a great game and could even get in on the scoring action. Give me the Lions -3.5! 

50* NFL NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta laying a short number at home against the Bucs. These two teams have identical 3-7 records, but it doesn't feel like it. Tampa Bay is on a downward spiral, while the Falcons have seemed to figure things out. Any concern that Atlanta's 26-9 win at New Orleans was a fluke were put to rest in a 29-3 win at Carolina last week. What was once one of the worst defenses in the league is playing like one of the best. I'll take my chances that strong defensive play carries over. With the way Tampa struggles to stop the pass and the weapons Atlanta has on the outside, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Falcons -3.5! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Wake Forest -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Demon Deacons winning by more than a touchdown at home. I just think we are getting a great price here with Wake Forest due to the fact that they come in off a couple of blowout losses at Virginia Tech and Clemson. No explanation needed for the blowout loss to the Tigers, but that Virginia Tech team is playing unbelievable football right now. This is the ideal bounce back spot. Not only are we going to get a big effort coming off of those losses, but this is also their final home game and senior day. Duke is playing as poorly as any Power 5 team out there and just got routed at home by a bad Syracuse team 49-6. Give me the Demon Deacons -7! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Temple +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Bearcats. I just don't agree with this number at all. I feel like we are seeing Cincinnati getting way too much respect because they come in at 9-1. They have not put away teams like you would want to see for a team laying double-digits, especially given how well Temple has been playing. The Owls have had the Bearcats number of late with 4 straight wins in the series and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they won this game outright. Temple is also a team that always seems to play their best this time of the year. They are 12-3 ATS last 15 in the month of number. They have also covered 39 of their last 55 conference games, while the Bearcats are 6-16 ATS last 22 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Owls +10.5! 

50* NCAAF FAVORITE ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (Louisville -9) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals winning by double-digits at home against the Orange. I've really liked what I've seen out of Louisville under first year head coach Scott Satterfield. He doesn't get near enough credit for what he's done in year one. Cardinals are sitting at 6-4 with two of their losses coming against Notre Dame and Clemson and the other two on the road against FSU and Miami. 

I don't see them having any problem winning here by 10+ on senior day at home. Don't be fooled by Syracuse's 49-6 win over Duke last week as a 10.5-point dog. Few teams are playing worse than the Blue Devils right now, especially at the Power 5 level. Prior to that the Orange had lost 4 straight and that's their only win this season against a Power 5 opponent. There defense will be exposed and I just don't see the offense doing enough to keep this close. Give me the Cardinals -9! 

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (UCLA +14) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Bruins getting two touchdowns against USC. UCLA was my only loser on the college card last Saturday, but I’m not going to let that keep me from jumping back on the Bruins this week. The big thing for me is that UCLA was not nearly as bad as the 49-3 final score would lead you to believe against Utah. The Bruins had a number of opportunities to make a game of it, but just couldn’t get out of their own way. UCLA turned it over 5 times and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was sacked 5 times.  A bunch of those turnovers and sacks came in Utah territory, which took points off the board. 

Give credit to the Utah defense, which has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They hands down won that game for the Utes. The key here is USC doesn’t have near the talent in their front seven. Look for the Bruins to get back on track in the running game against the Trojans. Prior to being held to a mere 50 rushing yards against Utah, UCLA had put together 5 straight games with at least 200 yards on the ground. Each of the last 4 resulting in at least 31 points.  

USC is giving up 167 rushing yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry and had a game earlier this season where they let Notre Dame rush for 308 yards. I think with UCLA’s offense getting back on track, they not only have a great shot at covering the 14-points spread, but potentially winning this game outright.  

Note that while the Trojans have won their last two games, they are just 2-10 ATS the last 3 seasons when coming in off 2 or more consecutive wins and are losing in this spot by an average of 4.8 ppg. Keep in mind a bad UCLA team that won just 3-games last year beat USC 34-27 at home. With that win Bruins head coach Chip Kelly improved to 4-1 against the Trojans and his offense just always seems to give the Trojans problems.  Give me UCLA +14!  

40* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK (Texas A&M +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the big double-digit spread on the road against Georgia. I think the Bulldogs are way overvalued here. Sure they have bounced back from that upset loss to South Carolina with 4 straight wins, but the offense has continued to struggle. Bulldogs have gone 5 straight games scoring 27 or fewer. I don't see that changing against a solid Aggies defense. I know the Georgia defense has been great, but a lot of their success has come against run-first teams. Texas A&M can not only run the ball (200+ yards in 3 straight games), but they have a legit quarterback in Kellen Mond. You could argue that Texas A&M is the 4th best team in the SEC, as their 3 losses this season are to Clemson, Alabama and Auburn. I don't that they can pull off the upset, but I'm confident they make a game of it. Give me the Aggies +13.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Virginia Tech -3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech laying the short number at home against Pitt. One of my biggest bets from last weekend was the Hokies and they delivered in a big way with a 45-0 thrashing of Georgia Tech on the road. They are now 5-1 in their last 6 with their only loss coming by 1-point against Notre Dame where the Irish needed a late score to secure a win. The Hokies have covered all 5 games during this stretch with a line and are simply playing as well as any team in the country right now. I just think people are slow to jump on board and they just continue to show value. Pitt has won 6 of their last 7, but 4 of those wins were against the likes of Duke, Delaware, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. They needed OT last week to beat UNC at home and I just think they are going to struggle to keep this close on the road. Give me the Hokies -3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with East Carolina winning by more than two touchdowns on the road against UConn. You aren't going to find many 3-7 teams laying 14.5 on the road, but that just speaks volumes to how bad this Huskies team is. Connecticut is 2-8 with one of those being a mere 24-21 win against Wagner at home and the other a win over a UMass team who is one of the worst teams in college football in recent years. It's also not like this team is losing a lot of close games, the majority are by a wide margin. ECU has covered 5 of their last 6, so don't be fooled by their 5-game losing streak that they aren't playing well. Those last 5 were against much better teams and in their last two they have only lost by 3 to Cincinnati and by 8 at SMU. They got one of the better QB's noone knows about and should put up 40+ in this one. Give me the Pirates -14.5! 

40* NFL COLTS/TEXANS TNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -3.5) 

I just think this is a great price to get the Texans coming off their worst performance of the season. I was actually shocked with how much respect Houston was getting on the road against a Ravens team that is playing as well anyone right now.

It’s just a lot harder than people think to slow down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. As is the case for a lot of teams that go against Baltimore, the Texans just couldn’t stop the Ravens running game. Baltimore piled on 263 yards on the ground.

The good news is that prior to giving up all those yards on the ground to the Ravens, Houston had gone 7 straight games where they held their opponent under 95 yards rushing. In the previous matchup with the Colts, they held Indy to just 62 yards on 26 attempts. I know the Colts got the win despite the low rushing numbers, but I don’t think it will be as easy for them to score without being able to run the ball on the road.

Another thing to keep in mind with that previous result against the Colts, is that Indianapolis had a big advantage in that game coming off their bye week. Now it’s the Texans who get the big scheduling advantage playing at home on just 3 days of rest.

You also have to love how Houston has responded after a bad game like they had against the Ravens. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a game where they gave up more than 150 rushing yards. They are also 16-7-1 ATS last 24 after scoring fewer than 15 points. Houston is also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 off a game where they failed to cover and 27-12 ATS last 39 when revenging a loss where they gave up 28 or more points. Give me the Texans -3.5!

40* NC STATE/GA TECH THURS NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Ga Tech -1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Wolfpack. I think the public perception here is that Georgia Tech has no business being favored in this one, as they are just playing for pride and NC State is sitting at 4-6 and needing to win their final two to make a bowl. 

I just don't buy in as much to team that need to win out to make a bowl. Sure there's motivation there, but at the same time, there's a reason they are in this spot. I know Georgia Tech didn't play well last week in their blowout loss to Va Tech, but this team had shown some improvements over the season. I also think pride is more than enough for this team, as they are trying to build some positive momentum to close out their first year under head coach Geoff Collins. It also helps playing at home in a prime time game. Give me the Yellow Jackets -1! 

40* NCAAF MAC ATTACK ATS MASSACRE (Eastern Michigan +5) 

I'll take my chances here with Eastern Michigan covering the 5-point spread at Northern Illinois.  I just think we are going to get a really big effort here from the Eagles in this one, especially with how close they have been to putting an end to this losing streak against Northern Illinois (lost 11 straight, last 3 decided by 7 or less).

It should also be a lot easier for Eastern Michigan bouncing back from a cupcake win over Akron than it will for Northern Illinois off that big game against Toledo.

The Eagles offense should put up a big number in this one. While they got the win over Toledo, the Huskies gave up 508 yards to the Rockets. That’s after they allowed over 600 yards the previous time out against Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan’s offense has scored 34 or more in 3 of their last 4 and had 498 yards last week against the Zips.

Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games and 23-10 ATS last 33 after a game where they had 450 or more yards of total offense. Give me Eastern Michigan +5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Kansas City covering the spread over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. I know the Chiefs are coming off an ugly loss at Tennessee where they gifted the Titans the win. I still think this KC team is a legit Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes was sensational in his first game back from a dislocated knee cap, throwing for over 400 yards with 3 scores. KC's defense struggled with containing Derek Henry, but I still like what I've seen from them on that side. They are much improved over a year ago and this Chargers offense hasn't been anything special. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4! 

40* NFL VEGAS UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK (Cardinals +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Arizona as a double-digit dog against the Cardinals. Whenever you have a big public team like the 49ers coming off a loss after being so good for so long, the public just assumes they are going to bounce back. I just don't see it. The injuries are really starting to pile up for SF. Jimmy G will once again be without his best weapon in tight end George Kittle and there's a good chance he won't have his new toy in Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers also lost a couple of key rotation guys up front on their d-line. Arizona is 6-3 ATS with rookie QB Kyler Murray and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including a mere 3-point loss at home to these 49ers a few weeks ago. Give me the Cardinals +10.5! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE  (Broncos +10.5) 

I see a lot of value here with the Broncos as a double-digit dog against the Vikings. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Vikings off their win at Dallas in prime time on Sunday Night Football. Not only that, but Denver’s not a team the public wants a lot to do with right now, so the books are able to inflate the number knowing the public will be on Minnesota no matter what the number is.

I’m not going to sit here and say Denver is a great team, but I do think they are better than their 3-6 record. The Broncos could easily have a winning record, as they got 4 losses by 8 or less, including 3 defeats by a mere 2-points.

In Denver’s last game they gave Brandon Allen his first NFL start in place of the injured Joe Flacco. While they might have been forced into making the switch because of Flacco’s injury, it felt like a move needed to be made. Flacco was playing really bad before getting hurt and it often looked like he didn’t even want to be out there. I think his negative attitude was rubbing off on the entire team and things just weren’t going to get better with him on the field.

I get Allen didn’t light the world on fire in his first start, but he did guide the team to a win over Cleveland and played pretty well in process. More than anything Allen seemed to give a new sense of life to this Denver team and I think it’s going to carry over to this game.

I also like the fact that the Broncos are coming into this game off of their bye. Not only is it big in terms of getting some much-needed rest and getting guys healthy, it also gives the staff some time to work in a little more of the offense with Allen.

The other big thing here is the Denver defense has been playing extremely well all season long. Not a big surprise given the defensive prowess of head coach Vic Fango. In the Broncos last 5 games they are giving up just 74.2 rushing/yards game. They also have the league’s 4th ranked pass defense.

I feel like the best way to slow down this Vikings offense is to take away Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota ground attack. Note that both of the Vikings losses this season have come in games where they failed to rush for 100 yards. I’m not saying Denver will pull off the upset, but I definitely like their chances of keeping it within the number. Give me the Broncos +10.5!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown at Detroit on Sunday. Lions will once again be without Matthew Stafford and will have to start Jeff Driskel. The Lions managed just 13 points against the Bears last week and 7 of those came on a late garbage TD. If Chicago's offense wasn't so awful, they would have won by 20+ and I could see Dallas laying it on them. 

Not a good matchup at all for the Lions. Detroit has no running game and the passing game is now limited with Driskel and will be facing a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top half of the league against the pass. It's not good on the other side. No one has been able to contain Zeke and the Cowboys ground game and the Lions are 28th vs the pass, so it's going to be a real balanced attack for Dak and the Cowboys. Give me Dallas -6.5! 

50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4) 

I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4! 

40* NCAAF  PRIME TIME PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA +21.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA covering as a massive 21.5-point dog against the Utes. The Bruins might be just 4-5 overall, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Just like they did a year ago, they have greatly improved as the season has worn along. 

Utes are way overvalued right now after winning and covering in each of their last 5 games. The books may have been slow to adjust the number, but they definitely have inflated it here. Just a few weeks ago they were a 21-point favorite at home against Cal and the week before only a 16-point favorite at home against Arizona State. I would take UCLA against both of those teams right now. 

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has gone 16-5 ATS as a head coach when facing a top tier team that's won more than 75% of their games. Give me the Bruins +21.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian State -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering the 16.5-point spread at home against Georgia State. The Mountaineers should have no problem putting up a big number here. The Panthers defense is one of the worst in the country. They are giving up 36.0 ppg and 464 yards/game. 

I just don't see them being able to keep pace offensively with starting quarterback Dan Ellington sidelined with a knee injury. Ellington is what makes the Panthers offense go. He's competed 66% of his attempts with an 18-4 TD-INT ratio, while rushing for 603 yards and 5 scores.

Home underdogs who are allowing 35+ ppg and coming off 2 straight games with 60 or more combined points scored are a mere 30-75 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Mountaineers -16.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME BOOKIE CRUSHER (Texas A&M -11) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M laying it on the Gamecocks and covering the 11-point spread at home. I just think we got a case here of the Aggies being better than what they are getting credit for and South Carolina still getting a little too much love for their earlier upset win against Georgia. 

The thing is the Gamecocks have just been decimated by injuries and simply don't have the talent to keep this close against Texas A&M. Aggies are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. We saw them priced similarly in their last home game against Mississippi State and they easily covered as an 11.5-point favorite.

Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me Texas A&M -11! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Va Tech -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Yellow Jackets. I was dead wrong playing against Virginia Tech last week, but I'm getting some of that money back and some with them this week. The Hokies are so much better right now than they were to start the season it's not funny. 

Georgia Tech just covered on the road against Virginia, but they also lost by 10 at home the previous week to a pretty average Pitt team. More than anything, I just think this is a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets. While they aren't as run heavy as their triple-option days, they still don't offer much in the passing game. That's a problem against this Hokies defense, which is giving up just 86 yards/game on the ground in their last 5. 

Georgia Tech is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Hokies are 29-12 ATS last 41 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when coming off an upset win over a conference opponent. Give me Virginia Tech -5.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +15) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions catching more than two touchdowns at Penn State on Saturday. I feel the public perception is that Penn State is just going to bounce back from their loss at Minnesota, which was their first of the season. It's just not as easy bouncing back from your first loss this late in the season and I'm also not convinced Penn State is as good as people think. They could have easily lost at Iowa a few weeks back and at home to Michigan. 

Add in the biggest game of the season on deck next week against Ohio State and I think it's asking a lot for the Nittany Lions to win here in blowout fashion. Indiana comes in having won 4 straight and while it's been against soft competition, this team shows up ready to give it their all on a weekly basis. They are going to have even more fire coming off their bye. Give me Indiana +15! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Texas Tech +3) 

I really like the value with the Red Raiders in this one. Texas Tech will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after going on the road and laying it on the Mountaineers 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I not only think they cover the 3-point spread at home, but I think there’s a decent chance they win this one going away.

Not only do I think this is an ideal spot to jump on Texas Tech, but I think it’s an even better spot to fade TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching 29-23 triple-overtime loss at home to undefeated and No. 12 ranked Baylor last week. TCU led the entire way only to see Baylor tie the game in the final seconds on a 51-yard field goal and then had to watch their defense give up 3 touchdowns in OT after they had held the Bears to 3 field goals in regulation.

Simply coming off that loss would have been a challenge. Add in the fact that TCU has a massive game on deck against No. 10 Oklahoma, who every team in the Big 12 has circled on the schedule and I think it will be near impossible for the Horned Frogs to play in Lubbock this Saturday.

Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey torched West Virginia’s secondary for 354 yards last week and the Red Raiders as a team come in completing 66% of their pass attempts for an average 309 yards/game. Texas Tech as a whole averages 32.2 ppg. Those stats are important to note given the matchup, as TCU is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when facing an offense that completes 62% or more of their pass attempts and the same 2-9 ATS when facing a team that averages 31 or more points/game.

Horned Frogs have also been a good fade off a loss, as they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road. Give me Texas Tech +3!

50* NCAAF BOUNCE BACK ATS GAME OF THE MONTH(Alabama -17.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Alabama winning by 20+ on the road against Mississippi State. Much like the Patriots in the NFL, you take the Crimson Tide when they are coming off a loss. With or without Tua, I look for Alabama to lay it on the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State has shown nothing to make you think they can be competitive enough to keep this close. They lost by 19 at Texas A&M, by 23 at home to LSU and by 33 at Auburn. THey also lost by double-digits to Tennessee, which really tells you all you need to know. 

Alabama 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when listed as a favorite of 14.5 to 21 points and have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Give me the Crimson Tide -17.5! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (San Diego State PK) 

I'll take my chances here with San Diego State at a pick'em on their home turf against the Bulldogs. I'm not sure why this Fresno State team is getting so much love right now. The Bulldogs are atrocious defensively and really have no choice but to try to outscore teams. Fresno has allowed 37+ in each of their last 3. They can't stop the run and that's the one thing you need to be able to do to slow down the Aztecs. San Diego State's defense is also top notch, allowing just 14.4 ppg and really matchup well with what the Bulldogs do well offensively. Give me the Aztecs PK! 

40* NCAAF UNC/PITT ATS KNOCKOUT (N Carolina +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with North Carolina getting more than a field goal at Pitt. I just think this line is a bit of a reflection of these two teams records, as Pitt is 6-3 and UNC is 4-5. However, the Panthers have played the much easier schedule (there 3 conference wins are against Duke, Syracuse and GA Tech) and all 5 of UNC's losses have come by 8 or less, including a mere 1-point loss to Clemson. Mack Brown always seems to get his teams to play well off a bye and I expect North Carolina to win this outright. 

Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are just 7-30, 19% ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Tar Heels +4.5! 

50* SEAHAWKS/49ERS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the 49ers winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Seahawks. I just think it's going to be really hard for Seattle to make a game out of this. Seahawks rely so much on Russell Wilson and their passing game and will be going up against an elite 49ers pass defense that is giving up just 139 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. It's not just the defense. San Francisco has a better offense than they get credit for and are averaging 35.3 ppg at home. 49ers will be out to make a statement on Monday Night Football. Give me SF -6! 

50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams -3.5) 

I give a lot of props to Pittsburgh and how they have continued to play hard, but I just think they are getting a little too much love here. The thing you have to keep in mind is that 3 of their 4 wins have come at home against the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Not to mention Indy lost their starting QB early in that game.

I just don’t think their offense is going to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has struggled to effectively run the football and Rudolph hasn’t been that impressive. If they can’t run the ball, that’s a problem, because they won’t be able to play keepaway from the Rams offense. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the LA is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Sean McVay against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards game.

The Rams just aren’t covering in this spot, they are destroying teams. Their average margin of victory is by 19.7 ppg (35.1 to 15.4).

Another thing is that you almost just have to back road favorites blindly when coming off a bye. Teams laying points on the road with 2 or more weeks of rest are 100-57 (64%) ATS dating back to 1983. Steelers are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and Rams are 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me Los Angeles -3.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Titans. With Mahomes set to return this week for KC, I just don't see Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively against what I believe is hands down the best offense in the league with Mahomes under center. 

Kansas City isn't just getting Mahomes back, they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1. I just don't think we have seen anything close to the best football for this team and with the way the defense is improving each and every week, they would be my pick to win it all right now. Give me the Chiefs -6! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Browns -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Bills. Most have thrown in the towel on the Browns this season and it's hard to blame them, given they are just 2-6 overall and come in having lost 4 and failed to cover in straight. 

I expect a big effort here from Cleveland in this one and I think Buffalo is a team they can handle, especially at home. Bills are 6-2, but haven't beat anybody. Buffalo's 6 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins and Redskins. Tennessee is the only one of those teams with more than 2 wins. 

Speaking of schedules, the Browns have played one of the toughest slates in the league. They have played 5 of their first 8 on the road with 3 of those against the Ravens, 49ers and Patriots. They also have had two home games against top tier teams in the Rams and Seahawks. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

50* LIONS/BEARS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bears -2.5) 

The public perception couldn’t be much worse with Chicago right now and I think it’s created unbelievable value with the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. There’s no denying that Trubisky is not playing well, but I don’t think he can play any worse than he has. If anything, he’s due for a breakout performance.

One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Bears and most notably Trubisky’s poor start to the season, is the fact that Chicago has played a bunch of really good defensive teams. The only bad defense he’s faced in 2019 is the Redskins and he threw for 231 yards and 3 scores. Detroit’s defense has been holding them back all season and their secondary is 30th in the league, giving up 288.4 ypg.

Another thing that has quietly gone under the radar a bit in the Bears offensive struggles, is rookie running back David Montgomery is starting to get going. While he had just 40 yards against the Eagles, he scored twice and had a lot of nice runs in the 2nd half. The week before he had 135 yards against the Chargers. Lions run defense has allowed 165 or more yards in 3 of their last 4.

I think we see the Chicago offense come to life, while the Bears defense makes life difficult on Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Detroit’s offense just hasn’t been the same since losing Kerryon Johnson to a season-ending injury. Stafford has played 30 games in his career against strong defensive teams that allow 15 to 21 ppg and has won just 6 times. Bears are 18-7 ATS last 25 at home off 3 straight losses and 22-8 ATS last 30 at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Give me Chicago -2.5!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia -16) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs winning by 3 scores over Missouri. All the talk this week in SEC country is centered around the big showdown between Alabama and LSU. I just think Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are going to be out to send a message in prime time at home against the Tigers. Georgia won by 14 last year at Missouri and the last time they hosted the Tigers they won by 25. Missouri comes in off a 21-14 loss at Vanderbilt and a 29-7 loss at Kentucky. I just don't see them flipping the switch on the road against a hungry and motivated Georgia team. Give me the Bulldogs -16! 

50* ALABAMA/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR (Alabama -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a touchdown against LSU at home. All signs point to Tua playing and I want to point out I think they could beat the Tigers by a TD without him. With him, I don't think it's going to be close, especially with everyone jumping on the LSU bandwagon for this one. Joe Burrow has been special for the Tigers, but Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide have had two weeks to prepare for him and we just saw LSU score just 20 at home against Auburn. I think Burrow struggles and more than anything, I think the Tigers defense won't be able to stop the Alabama offense. Give me the Crimson Tide -5.5! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Wake Forest -1.5) 

I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wake Forest laying less than a field goal. I think a big reason why we are seeing a lower line than what we should be is because the Demon Deacons have that big game against Clemson on deck. I’m sure if you asked head coach Dave Clawson he would say the same thing. Next week’s game against the Tigers means absolutely nothing if they don’t win this one.

In fact, I think the team that will struggle to show up this Saturday is Virginia Tech. I gave out the Hokies last week against Notre Dame, but that was 100% situational. I saw a ton of value with a Hokies team that had been playing well of late coming off a bye against a deflated Irish team that just had their playoff hopes crushed the week before.

It played out just as I expected, as Notre Dame did everything they could to give that game away. The Irish had an interception in the red zone that took points off the board and then had that catastrophic fumble in the final second of the 1st half that Va Tech returned for a 98-yard score. Notre Dame also had another pick in Va Tech territory just outside the red zone and missed a chip-shot 35-yard field goal. Notre Dame finished with a 442 to 240 edge in total yards and 25 to 12 advantage in first downs.

My concern with the Hokies isn’t that they got outplayed and lost the game, it’s how they lost the game. There’s just some losses that sting more than others and losing in the final seconds of historic Notre Dame Stadium is not one they will soon forget. I also think the fact that they can lose this game and still win the Coastal makes it that much tougher on them to bounce back.

All of this and I haven’t even got to the most important part and that’s that Wake Forest is the better team. The Demon Deacons have something special going and for me this one is all about the matchup. Wake Forest’s offense is built around their passing game. It’s ranked 9th in the nation at 323.6 ypg and will be facing a Virginia Tech secondary that ranks 109th, giving up 261.5 ypg.

Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has not let his teams suffer letdowns. Clawson is 11-1 ATS in the 12 times his team has come in off a conference blowout win by 21 or more points. Give me Wake Forest -1.5.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Louisville +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville getting a touchdown against Miami. This one is pretty easy if you ask me. Hurricanes are coming off a huge win over rival Florida State and there hasn't been a better time to fade Miami than after playing the Seminoles. Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS with 4 outright losses the last 6 times they have taken the field the week after playing FSU. On top of that they are getting Louisville off their bye and new Cardinals head coach Scott Satterfield has gone 11-1 SU off a bye as a head coach. Louisville is also a lot better than people realize. Last time out they beat Virginia as a 4-point home dog. They also have an outright win at Wake Forest as a 7-point dog. Give me the Cardinals +7! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Stanford -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Stanford laying just a field goal at Colorado. I think a lot of people have forgotten about this Cardinal team, as they wrote them off after 3 straight losses, but to no surprise, David Shaw has right the ship. Stanford is 3-1 in their last 4 and the only loss was in a game against UCLA where they didn't have their top two QBs. KJ Costello returned two weeks ago against Arizona and guided the Cardinal to a 41-31 win. I look for this team to be even sharper out of their bye and Colorado is in a complete free fall. Buffaloes have lost 5 straight and clearly there's problems on offense as they have scored 14 or less in 3 of their last 4, including a mere 10 against Washington State and 14 against UCLA. Give me Stanford -3! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS BLOWOUT (Virginia -15) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia laying it on Georgia Tech. I was really impressed with Virginia's win last week at UNC and there's just no way Bronco Mendenhall is going to let his team suffer a letdown going into their late season bye. It's not secret the Cavaliers have a great defense and that's where I think we get our separation. Georgia Tech's offense is bad and offer little to no threat in the passing game. That's a problem against a Virginia defense that gives up just 3.3 yards/carry against the run. People like to knock the Cavaliers offense, but they are averaging 30.8 ppg and that jumps up to 39.7 ppg at home. Yellow Jackets also give up 218 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry vs the run. Virginia is outscoring teams at home by 21.7 ppg. Give me the Cavaliers -15! 

50* PENN ST/MINNESOTA BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH (Penn State -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Nittany Lions going into Minnesota and winning by at least a touchdown. It's crazy to me how everyone has fallen in love with this Gophers team after dogging them early for near losses against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern and Purdue. Sure they have since whooped Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland, but those are all bad teams. Penn State has been battle tested with wins over Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State in their last 3. They have heard all the talk about the Gophers during their bye week and I look for them to make a statement on Saturday. Where I think this gets ugly for Minnesota is they rely so much on the running game and I just don't see them being able to run on this Nittany Lions defense. Penn State is giving up a mere 68 ypg and 2.0 yards/carry this season. They are holding teams over 60 yards and 1.7 yards/carry under their season average. Give me the Nittany Lions -6.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Tulsa +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Hurricane covering the 17.5 at home against UCF. I think a lot of people will assume Tulsa wont' show up here because they no longer have a shot at a bowl, but I'm not buying it. They are going to come to play at home against a team like the Knights in a primetime weekday game. Tulsa has more than held their own against the top teams in the AAC. They only lost by 1 at home to Memphis, by just 11 at Cincinnati and by a mere 6 at SMU. Easily could have won all of those games. Give me the Golden Hurricane +17.5! 

40* TEMPLE/S FLORIDA THURS NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (South Florida +2) 

I'll take my chances here with Charlie Strong having the Bulls ready to pounce on Temple tonight. I really like how Strong has got his teams to play coming off a bye and I think this South Florida team is riding a huge wave of momentum right now. I get they had some ugly losses, but the talent is there. As for Temple, I don't get why people are so high on this team. They got a win over Memphis, but that was the Tigers beating themselves. The Owls showed their true colors in the last two against SMU and UCF. This is also a team that lost by 16 on the road to Buffalo team that isn't very good. I think the wrong team is favored. Give me USF +2!

40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami +7) 

This line basically says that Ohio would be a 3.5-point favorite on a neutral field. I would have it closer to a pick’em, making this an easy play on the RedHawks. 

It’s not the first time the line has been inflated on Ohio this season. It’s why the Bobcats come into this game with a 2-6 ATS record. I don’t blame the books, as the public is backing Ohio at this price, so why not set it higher than it should be.

I like Chuck Martin and what he’s done with this program and he’s well on his way to taking Miami to their 2nd bowl game in 4 years (note that they were just 1 win away from bowl eligibility in 2017 and last year were 6-6 and just didn’t get an invite). Note that when he took over the RedHawks had been to a grand 3 bowl games since 1986.

Let’s also not overlook the fact that Miami comes in at 4-4 with 3 of their losses coming on the road against the likes of Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State.

Another thing I don’t like about Ohio laying this big a number is the way their defense has played. Bobcats allowed just 21 to Ball State, but a lot of that had to do with mother nature making conditions unfavorable to pass. The previous two games they gave up 38 to Kent State and 39 to Northern Illinois. They also allowed 45 to Lafayette. Give me Miami +7!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC NO-BRAINER (Kent St +7) 

This could turn out to be some really good value, as Toledo starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and backup quarterback Carter Bradley are both listed as questionable. If they can’t go I would actually give Kent State a good shot at winning this game outright. Not that they can’t of Guadagni or Bradley are able to go.

The other thing I think that’s playing into this line is just the public perception of these two programs. Kent State is not a team that people have wanted to bet on for a while now. The Golden Flashes haven’t won more than 4 games since that magical 11-3 season in 2012. While they have played a tough schedule with 3 Power 5 road games and have shown well in MAC play, the public only sees that they are 3-5 with 3 wins over Kennesaw State, Bowling Green and Akron.

I really think that head coach Sean Lewis is a head coach on the rise. When they hired him last year, he became the youngest head coach in the FBS at 31. He’s an offensive minded guy, who spent 6 years under Dino Babers in Syracuse, serving as the co-OC his last two years. He took over a Golden Flashes offense that averaged just 12.8 ppg in 2017 and got them to 23.9 ppg in 2018. They also jumped from 275 ypg to 384 ypg. This year they are at just 23.9 ppg and 366 ypg, but a lot of that is playing those 3 games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin.

Toledo’s defense has also been a big problem of late. They gave up 52 points and almost 600 yards of total offense to Ball State and then allowed 34 points and 450+ yards to Eastern Michigan. Give me Kent State +7!

50* COWBOYS/GIANTS MNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Cowboys -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown against the Giants. These two teams played in Week 1 and the Cowboys rolled to a 35-17. They were really in complete control the whole way, leading 21-7 at the half and 35-10 going into the 4th quarter. 

People are wanting to give the Giants a pass on that game because Eli Manning started, but it's not like he played bad. Manning was 30 or 44 with 306 yards and a TD (0 interceptions). How much more can the rookie Daniel Jones give them? 

Dallas had that ugly 3-game losing streak before crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. They took that win into the bye and that extra time to prepare for this game is huge. Philadelphia has also rolled off 2 straight wins since they beat them and they need this game to stay in front of the NFC East. 

Cowboys have only been outgained in 1 game this season and that was by 9 yards at New Orleans against the Saints in a 12-10 loss. In their loss to Green Bay they outgained the Packers by 228 yards. Giants defense is awful.

Dallas is 13-2 ATS Last 15 division games and have covered 5 straight against the Giants. New York is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 at home. Give me the Cowboys -6.5! 

40* NFL (Patriots -3) 

I'll take my chances with New England laying just a field goal against the Ravens. There really doesn't need to be a lot said. The Patriots are a ridiculous 46-19 (71%) ATS in their last 65 games. I get the schedule has been easy, but if you think that's why the defense has been so good you are wrong. The defense is good because Belichick is the defensive coordinator. I look for the Patriots defense to gameplan 100% around keeping Jackson in the pocket and forcing him to make throws from the pocket, something I'm still not convinced he can do consistently. This is also not the same caliber a Ravens defense as years past. Give me the Pats -3! 

40* NFL (Bills -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills as a double-digit favorite against the Redskins. As soon as Washington named Haskins the starter because Keenum was out, I knew I was going to be on Buffalo. Not only do I think the Bills defense will be too much for Haskins, who has shown nothing to make you think he's ready for this stage, but I also love that we are getting Buffalo off that ugly loss to the Eagles at home last week. That almost guarantees there will be zero looking past this bad Redskins team. Look for a few Redskins turnovers to play a big part in this thing getting out of control. Give me the Bills -10! 

40* NFL (Bears +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 4.5-point dog. Everyone is throwing the Bears under the bus right now and no one is picking Chicago to win this game with the Eagles coming off that big win over Buffalo. I just don't trust Philadelphia as much as others. I still think this team is overvalued because of their SB win a couple years ago. We have not seen the same Carson Wentz that was the MVP frontrunner before getting hurt a couple years ago. I think the Bears defense is going to really give Wentz and that offense fits in this game. Chicago's offense is struggling to score, but have moved the ball much better in their two games since their bye. They had almost 400 yards last week against the Chargers and just 16 points to show for it. Give me the Bears +4.5! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3) 

I just feel like this is the ideal spot to jump on the Panthers and I think we are getting a great price due to the fact that Carolina is off that ugly 51-13 loss at San Francisco and the Titans come in off back-to-back wins and covers.

First things first, the Panthers are the first team to get their butts kicked by the 49ers. Sure the offense only had 13 points and Kyle Allen played like crap, but San Francisco hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. As for Allen and him throwing for just 158 yards with a 0-3 TD-INT ratio, that is not all that surprising against that defense. The 49ers have only given up 284 passing yards in their last 4 games combined.

Prior to that performance Allen had really been playing well. In the previous 4 games during the Panthers 4-game winning streak, he averaged 225 yards/game and posted a perfect 7-0 TD-INT ratio. Titans are just middle of the pack in passing defense and have allowed over 600 yards thru the air in their last two games.

Not only do I expect Allen to have a big bounce back performance, I think we get an unbelievable effort from the entire Panthers team. It’s so much easier to respond from a blowout loss than a game where you lose in the final seconds.

As for the Titans, I think this team is very fortunate to be 4-4. All 4 wins have come against teams who have losing records and own a combined 8-22 mark on the season. Last week they were outgained by the Bucs 389 to 246 and their only two TD drives in the first 3 quarters were off turnovers where the offense had to go 10 yards or less.

History is also on our side. Panthers are 23-6 under head coach Ron Rivera when off a road loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Rivera when off a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me Carolina -3!

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Colorado +7) 

I love the Buffaloes here as a 7-point dog against UCLA. The Bruins are fresh off an impressive 42-32 upset win at home over Arizona State and I believe it has them way overvalued here. This is still the same team that lost by 17 at home to Oregon State. Colorado has lost 4 in a row, but have been down a few key guys to injury and played 3 of the top teams in the conference in Washington, Washington State and USC. Colorado is healthier than they have been and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Buffaloes +7! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss +20) 

I just think there’s a ton of hidden value here with the Rebels, as this is an absolutely brutal spot for Auburn. The Tigers are coming off that emotional loss to LSU, a game they absolutely had to have to have any shot at winning the SEC West. Bouncing back from that would have been tough on its own, but they also got a massive lookahead game at home next week against No. 8 Georgia.

I think it’s asking a lot for Auburn to have win this game by three touchdowns, especially when you factor in how much this game means to Ole Miss. The Rebels have to win here to have a legit shot at making a bowl game. Another big factor in favor of Ole Miss is they are going to be well rested and prepared coming off their bye week.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a fade of Auburn. Explosive offensive teams that are averaging 34+ points/games vs average defensive teams (21-28 ppg) are just 14-40 (26%) ATS since 1992 if they are coming off a loss by 3 or less at least 7 games into the season.

Home favorites who have won 60% to 80% of their games are also just 38-76 (33%) ATS if they come in having lost two of their last three. Give me Ole Miss +20.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Oregon State +6) 

I actually think Oregon State has a great shot at winning this game outright. Arizona is a complete mess. The Wildcats had to show their DC the door after giving up 51 to Washington, 41 to USC and 41 to Stanford in their last 3 games. Arizona could easily be 2-6 as they have a mere 5-point win over Colorado and a 3-point victory against UCLA. Beavers have covered 5 of their last 6 as the books just aren't adjusting properly. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road with a couple of outright wins as a dog. This offense should have a field day against the Wildcats. Give me Oregon State +6! 

50* UTAH/WASHINGTON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Utah laying just a field goal on the road against Washington. It feels like people are trying to find anything they can to take the Huskies as a home dog. I get it, but at the same time, I feel it's going to take a perfect game from Washington for them to win this matchup. I know the Huskies passing numbers are solid, but I think a lot of that stems from their run game and you aren't running the ball on this Utah defense. Utes are giving up a mere 2.5 yards/carry. They are also pretty good against the pass, allowing just 5.6 yards/attempt and 56% completions. Utah will simply have the easier time moving the football, making them a no-brainer at this price. Give me the Utes -3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma St -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Mike Gundy and the Cowboys laying less than a field goal at home against TCU. I'm not quite sure why the Horned Frogs are getting so much love in this one. TCU is coming off a nice win at home against Texas, but the Longhorns have been trending in the wrong direction. I was actually more impressed with Oklahoma State's win on the road against Iowa State as a 11-point dog. TCU has lost both of their Big 12 road games and this is definitely not an easy place to go and get a win. Give me the Cowboys -2.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia Tech +17.5) 

I think the public perception is that the Irish are going to be pissed off from that ugly loss to Michigan and will bounce back at home. I just have a hard time seeing it. I just don’t see a ton of motivation for the Irish now that they are out of the playoff picture.

Not only do I feel like Notre Dame is getting way too much respect, I still think the public is slow to take notice to how much better the Hokies are right now compared to early on. This is a different team than the one that started 2-2 with those ugly losses to BC and Duke. There’s just a different feel to this team with Hendon Hooker at quarterback.

I not only think Virginia Tech has the goods to keep this within the number, but I would give them an outside shot at winning this game outright. Notre Dame is 2-0 against teams from the ACC, but they only won by 18 at home to Louisville and by 15 at home against Virginia. Both of those games were a lot more competitive than the final scores would indicate. They only outgained the Cardinals by 40 yards and were outgained by 16 yards by the Cavaliers.

Another big factor here that can’t be overlooked is that while Notre Dame just played in arguably the biggest game of their season (they win that and they are in the driver seat to finish 11-1 and make the playoffs), while the Hokies were on a bye. Having two weeks to prepare for a team is huge, especially this late in the year.

Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS last 20 off an upset win over a conference rival and 15-5 ATS last 20 on the road off a win by 6 or less. Notre Dame is just 16-31 ATS last 47 at home in the month of November and 4-13 ATS last 17 after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more at the half. Give me the Hokies +17.5.

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan -21.5) 

I've really been impressed with how the Wolverines have looked the last two weeks. They didn't just beat Notre Dame last week, they absolutely destroyed them and they completely outplayed Penn State in the 2nd half the week before. 

A lot of people wrote this team off after that loss to Wisconsin and it was a mistake. Michigan is 4-1 ATS since that defeat and I just don't see Maryland being able to do enough offensively to keep this within the number. The Terps only had 128 total yards and were shutout at home by Penn State earlier this season. I don't know if Michigan shuts them out or puts 50+ on the scoreboard, but they should win here by 28 or more. Give me the Wolverines -21.5!  

40* 49ERS/CARDINALS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cardinals +10.5)

After last week’s blowout win over the Panthers, I’m seeing quite a few people in the media lay claim to the 49ers as being the best team in the NFL. As much as the San Francisco players will say they aren’t listening to the hype, it’s almost impossible not to and this just has the feeling of a game they could come out flat and possibly get beat.

One thing you can count on is the Cardinals giving everything they have in this matchup. I think a lot of people are going to look at the lopsided loss to the Saints and just assume this team won’t be able to hand with the 49ers, but that was a 8-point game going into the 4th quarter. This team had won 3 straight prior to that loss and not many teams are going to play well in New Orleans with how loaded that team is.

I’m pretty confident we see a better showing at home and let’s not forget there is a pretty significant edge for home teams in these Thursday games because of the travel for the road team on just 3 days of rest.

The 49ers defense is outstanding, but at least the Cardinals have a mobile quarterback who can escape some of that pressure, which could lead to some big plays down the field.

Also, this 49ers offense is good but not great. They scored 51 last week against the Panthers, but only had 388 total yards. If Arizona can just take care of the football they will have an excellent shot here to cover the double-digit spread. Give me the Cardinals +10.5!

40* W VIRGINIA/BAYLOR ATS SLAUGHTER (Mountaineers +18.5) 

You just have to believe we are getting value with the Mountaineers in this one. With this one of just two college games on the board Thursday, it’s going to get a lot of action. No way the public will want anything to do with West Virginia given their last two games ending in lopsided losses and Baylor sitting there at 7-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country.

Note that while the Mountaineers lost 38-14 at home to ISU, that was 14-14 at the half. They also only trailed Oklahoma 28-14 at the half before getting outscored by 24 in the final two periods. They only lost by 11 at home to Texas, despite a -3 turnover differential (outgained Longhorns 463-427). This team has what it takes to compete with Baylor.

I also don’t love how Rhule’s team has responded coming off a bye. Last year their only bye came the week before they got annihilated by West Virginia. This year they had an early bye before going to Rice and wound up winning 21-13 as a 27-point favorite.

Baylor has also been a horrible bet under Rhule as a home favorite. They are a mere 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since Rhule came to the program. That includes a 33-30 win at home over Texas Tech as 10.5-point favorite this year.

Another thing you have to keep in mind with West Virginia is they have played a brutal schedule. Six of their first seven opponents have been against Power 5 teams, as they played both Missouri and NC State in non-conference. Mountaineers are giving up 33.4 ppg, but their opponents offensive average is 32.0. They are giving up 408 ypg, which is actually under their opponents average of 447. Baylor’s opponents averages are just 27 ppg and 358.6 ypg, so you can see how much easier their schedule has been. Give me West Virginia +18.5!

50* NFL PRIME TIME GAME OF THE YEAR (Packers -3.5) 

I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant. Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center.

The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.

Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.

As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.

Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -3.5! 

40* NFL (49ers -5.5)

I'll take my chances with the 49ers remaining undefeated and covering the 5.5-point spread at home against the Panthers. This San Francisco defense is the real deal. The 49ers are giving up just 10.7 ppg and holding teams almost 10 points under their season average. They are only giving up 90 yards/game rushing and have been absolutely dominant against the pass, as opposing QBs are completing just 55.2% for 135 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. 

Kyle Allen has been great in relief of Cam Newton, but he's faced a bunch of average to sub-par defenses so far. I look for the 49ers to bottle up McCaffrey and for the Panthers to struggle to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the 49ers -5.5! 

40* NFL (Bears -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago at home against the Chargers. I know we aren't at the halfway point yet, but this feels like a must-win for the Bears, who are trying to avoid a 3rd straight loss and falling below .500 on the season. With how well Green Bay and Minnesota are playing, Chicago can't afford to fall back any further in the NFC North. 

Chargers are the team they can get right against. LA continues to get all kinds of respect from the public and the books, despite the fact that they are 2-5 and have lost 5 of 6. Chargers offense has been pretty anemic this season and it's not going to get any better against an elite Chicago defense. Give me the Bears -3.5! 

40* NFL (Jets +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jets bouncing back from that ugly showing against the Patriots with an easy cover against the Jaguars. You just can't overreact to how a team plays New England, especially on just 3 days of rest, where I think Belichick's ability to gameplan gives the Pats a massive edge. 

Darnold couldn't have played worse against New England, but I expect him to have a much better day at the office against a banged up Jags defense that no longer has one of the best players in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville is also a team I feel is way overvalued right now with all the hype around Minshew. Jags are just 3-4 with 3 wins against the Titans, Broncos and Bengals. Give me the Jets +7! 

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame PK) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Fighting Irish. For me it’s all about the spot and how difficult it will be for Michigan to pick themselves up after that loss to Penn State and how big an edge it is for Notre Dame coming off a bye.

I think there’s a lot here that will tempt people to take the Wolverines. Michigan dominated the box score on the road against Penn State last week and I think it surprised a lot of people with how well they played. They were a dropped TD pass from tying the game at 28-28 with less than 2 minutes to play.

That’s great, but I’m looking at it from a psychological perspective. I believe the Wolverines had to win that game to keep any hopes of winning the Big Ten and making the playoffs alive. Given how good Ohio State looks, Michigan has to feel like they got no shot with 2 conference losses.

For a team that came into the season thinking not just winning the Big Ten, but playing for a national championship, where does the motivation come from right now? I get it’s a home night game against a Top 10 opponent, but is playing spoiler going to do the trick.

All of this and I probably would have been on Notre Dame at this price had Michigan won last week. Love that the Irish are coming off a bye and they have to have this one. A win and the Irish are looking at 11-1 and will at worst be in the conversation for a playoff spot. A loss and they will join the Wolverines as a team searching for motivation down the stretch run. Give me Notre Dame +1!

40* NCAAF (Texas Tech -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders cashing in a win and cover as a small road favorite against the Jayhawks. I think this is the perfect spot to fade Kansas, coming off a gut-wrenching 50-48 loss at Texas. I think they are getting way too much credit for how close they played the Longhorns. Let's not overlook the fact Texas was coming off their biggest regular-season game against rival Oklahoma. Kansas' only win vs an FBS opponent is still BC. This team lost at home to West Virginia and Coastal Carolina. Re Raiders are going to show up coming off 2 straight losses. This is also a must-win for Texas Tech to have a legit shot at a bowl game. Give me the Red Raiders -4.5!

40* NCAAF (North Carolina -3) 

My favorite play last week was Virginia and it wasn't so much cause I love the Cavaliers. It was 100% a fade of Duke. I don't think this Blue Devils team is that great. I thought they had a very misleading 4-2 record going into that Virginia game and it showed. They lost 48-14 and 65 of their 250 total yards came in a meaningless TD drive in the final minutes down 48-7. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mack Brown and I think they will have no problem winning here by more than a field goal. Give me the Tar Heels -3! 

40* NCAAF (Stanford -1) 

I'll take my chances here with Stanford. It's looking likely that K.J. Costello will play for the Cardinal, as head coach David Shaw said he's in between the questionable to probable state for the game. Having him back makes this a different team. Also, I think Stanford can win here even if he doesn't play. Arizona is nothing special and their only road win was a 5-point victory against Colorado. Last week they lost by 27 at USC. 

Stanford is 17-7 ATS last 24 after a SU loss and 10-4 ATS last 14 after totaling 275 or less total yards. Arizona just 7-19 ATS last 26 on the road and a mere 3-8 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Wildcats also just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a loss by 20 or more. Give me the Cardinal -1! 

40* NCAAF (Penn State -5)

I'll take my chances here with Penn State laying the 5. I think enough is being made about how awful a spot this is for the Nittany Lions having just played two huge games against Iowa and Michigan and catching the Spartans off a bye. I just don't think it's going to matter. 

Michigan State's offense is anemic. Last time out they were shutout at Wisconsin and the week before scored just 10-points at Ohio State. They also had just 7 points in a home loss to Arizona State. Penn State's defense is the real deal and while they could struggle to put up a big number, they won't need to. 

I also think some of the letdown for the Nittany Lions will be negated by the fact that they have lost the last two in the series as big favorites. Give me Penn State -5! 

50* NCAAF POWER 5 PLAY OF THE YEAR (Wisconsin +15) 

I'll gladly back the Badgers getting two touchdowns against Ohio State. I think a lot of people would have been all over Wisconsin at this line had they not just lost as a massive favorite against Illinois. I also think we are starting to hear a lot about how much better the Buckeyes are than the rest of the Big Ten. 

I'm not saying the Badgers are going to beat Ohio State, but I do feel pretty confident they can cover the spread. Wisconsin has an elite run defense. They are allowing just 2.2 yards/carry, holding teams almost 2 yards under their season average. Ohio State has rushed for 225+ yards in every game. I'm banking on that streak ending and for the Badgers to be able have some success with Taylor on the ground. 

Home favorites who are undefeated and have beaten the spread by 35+ points in their last 3 games are a mere 15-43 (26%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Badgers are also 32-14 ATS last 46 vs teams who average 450+ yards/game and have held these teams to an average of 24.2 ppg. Give me Wisconsin +15! 

40* NCAAF (Northwestern +10) 

I’m shocked that Iowa is laying double-digits on the road with how bad that offense has looked the last week weeks. I get struggling to move the ball against the likes of Michigan and Penn State, who both have elite talent on the defensive line. To have to grind the way they did against Purdue’s defense is not good.

You hear a lot about Iowa’s offensive line and the two NFL prospects they got at the left and right tackle spots. The problem is the interior three are not good. They barely averaged more than 3 yards/carry against the Boilermakers and that’s after totalying 71 rushing yards in the previous two combined.

Northwestern is giving up 187 rushing yards/game, but only 4.4 yards/carry and the numbers are a bit skewed because of their tough schedule. They have already faced Stanford, Michigan State, Wisconsin Nebraska and Ohio State, with 3 of those on the road. Their only easy game was at home against UNLV.

They only gave up 17 to Stanford, 24 to Wisconsin and 13 to Nebraska. They allowed 31 to Michigan State, but a lot of that was due to turnovers. Spartans only had 337 total yards.

It’s also looking like Iowa will be without leading receiver Brandon Smith, who is their best weapon on the outside. Another big injury for the Hawkeyes is on the other side of the ball, where leading tackler Kristian Welch might have to miss another game.

Add in how well Pat Fitzgerald’s team has done against Kirk Ferentz of late with 3 straight wins, two of those at Iowa, I don’t know how you don’t take Northwestern. Give me the Wildcats +10!

50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9) 

I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week. 

I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker. 

Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (Titans -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Titans as a small home favorite against the Chargers. I love that Tennessee is making the switch from Mariota to Tannehill. I think that brings life to an offense that desperately needed a spark. I also have not been impressed with this Chargers defense of late and I don't think it's any better here with the guys they are missing up front on the defensive line. Titans on the other hand are making a huge addition to their rotation up front, as rookie DT Jeffery Simmons has been cleared to play. Tennessee drafted him No. 19, but had he not been coming off a ACL injury he would have been Top 10 and maybe Top 5. GIVE ME THE TITANS -2! 

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (Georgia -24.5) 

I'll gladly take Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to lay it on Kentucky this Saturday. I was on the Gamecocks last week at +25 in the upset win at Georgia. It was a perfect storm for South Carolina with them coming off a buy and probably catching the Bulldogs by surprise. 

It happens, but lucky for Georgia their season isn't dead. If they win out they are in the playoffs. They don't turn it over 4 times they beat SC and I think this line is 30+. They outgained the Gamecocks 468 to 297. Kentucky is not good. They barely beat a bad Arkansas team at home. 

Kentucky has no passing game after losing Terry Wilson. That's a problem against a pissed off Georgia defense that is phenominal against the run. Bulldogs are giving up just 2.7 yards/carry and holding teams almost 1.5 yards under their average/carry. This has blowout written all over it. Give me Georgia -24.5! 

40* NCAAF (Oklahoma State)

This is easy. You have No. 18 Baylor sitting at 6-0 and getting not just a field goal but the hook as well against an unranked opponent. Whenever you see a ranked team as a dog against an unranked team, it's play the favorite or pass. I'm playing the Cowboys here. Bears are good, but this is a quality Oklahoma State team that really plays well at home, especially in big games. I also love that they had a bye to really get things right after that upset loss at Texas Tech. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! 

40* NCAAF (SMU -7.5)

I'll take my chances here with SMU winning here by double-digits. Books are begging you to take Temple here with this on the other side of 7. Owls are 5-1 and just won at home against Memphis. I just don't think Temple is that good. They had a nice win at Maryland early, but the Terps were not what we thought. They lost by 16 at Buffalo, where outgained by an awful Georgia Tech team and only won by 10 at a bad ECU team. SMU is off a bye and this Mustangs team is the real deal. I don't think it will be close for long on Saturday. Give me SMU -7.5! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia -3) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Cavaliers and sell high on the Blue Devils. I definitely feel like the number here is way too low given how I rank these two teams.I get that Duke is 4-2 and tied for the ACC Coastal lead, but I'm not really sure what they have done to make people think they are legit.

They have wins over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee, Va Tech and Georgia Tech. You can't read anything into a FCS win, Middle Tennessee is not any good, Va Tech was a complete disaster before they made a QB change and Georgia Tech is by far the worst team in the ACC and maybe the worst Power 5 team in the country.They got annihilated by Alabama, which was to be expected, but they also were outgained 512 to 204. As for the 33-30 loss at home to Pitt, that doesn't look all that bad, but they trailed 26-3 in the 2nd half of that one.Virginia went on the road and beat that same Panthers team 30-14 and also have a nice win at home over Florida State.

Losing to Notre Dame by 15 and not covering is misleading, as they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. They actually outgained the Irish 338 to 322 and led 17-14 at the half. As for the loss last week to Miami, they were without a doubt the better team, but you get that crazy stuff in weekday games where the better team doesn't always win.

I look back at how much this Blue Devils offense struggled to move the ball against Alabama and I just can't see how they are going to do enough offensively in this game to keep it close. Duke's only game against a FBS opponent with more than 188 yards passing was vs Middle Tennessee and they only had 237 in that one. 

That's a serious problem because Virginia ranks 11th in the country against the run, giving up just 90 yards/game (2.7 yards/carry).Lastly, you got to factor in the history of this series. Virginia has won and covered 4 straight. All 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. I get the Blue Devils are good as a dog, but I don't see much bit in the Blue Devils Saturday. Give me Virginia -3!

50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Indiana -5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against the Terps. It doesn't look right to see Indiana laying points on the road, but I don't see them having any problem winning this game. I don't think people quite realize how good this team is. A big reason for that is a 51-10 loss at home to Ohio State. Their only other loss is to Michigan State on the road, where they had a 24-21 lead in the 4th and were tied 31-31 with 2 minutes to go. They lost by 9, but only because Mich St returned a fumble on the final play. 

Maryland is down their No. 1 quarterback in Josh Jackson, No. 2 wide out Darryl Jones, two linemen and will likely not have starting running back Anthony McFarland. They just got annihilated 40-14 to a banged up Purdue team that looked awful the week before at Penn State and lost at home to TCU and Minnesota. Give me Indiana -5! 

40* NCAAF (Miami -18) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by 20+ against Georgia Tech. Even though the Hurricanes are off a 17-9 upset win at home against a ranked Virginia team, the perception was that they didn't deserve to win. It was more about how the Cavaliers blew it. I think that's kept the hype off Miami and provided us with a ton of value. Yellow Jackets are bad man. Yes, they outgained Duke 379 to 373. Who cares. They were down 38-7 and did next to nothing offensively until the Blue Devils were up 31. Duke won by 18 scoring just 3 points in the final 33 minutes. Miami's feeling good right now and they are not out of the wide-open ACC Coastal. Give me Miami -18! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa -17.5) 

If you bet Iowa the last two weeks and a lot of people probably did, you probably can't even stomach thinking about backing the Hawks laying 17.5 at home to a Purdue team that just beat Maryland 40-14 at home. The Terps are banged up and a lot worse than people think, so let's not overreact to that win. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything against two elite defensive fronts in Michigan and Penn State. They will have no problem moving the ball against Purdue. The Hawkeyes defense hasn't given up more than 17 points in any games. I think Iowa looked similarly talented to Penn State and the Nittany Lions were a 28.5-point home favorite against Purdue. They won 35-7 and outgained the Boilermakers 460 to 104. Give me the Hawks -17.5! 

50* NCAAF C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH (FAU -4.5) 

Books have repeatedly overvalued Marshall this season. The Thundering Herd are just 1-5 ATS and have failed to cover 4 straight.

Revenge is always a huge motivator in college football and the fact that the Thundering Herd embarrassed FAU in last year’s meeting only makes me like the Owls that much more. I also think FAU has a big edge here with playing at home on a short week of rest.

The other big thing for me when handicapping this matchup is quarterback play. FAU’s Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Marshall’s Isaiah Green is only completing 57.2% of his attempts with a 8-5 TD-INT ratio.

Another thing with Green is that he’s got a 1-4 TD-INT ratio in Marshall’s two true road games. Green’s inability to protect the football away from home is an even bigger concern when you factor in how good FAU’s defense has been at creating turnovers. The Owls have 11 takeaways during their 4-game winning streak.

FAU is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing less than 20 points last time out. Marshall is just 1-8 ATS last 9 after allowing less than 20 points and 1-5 ATS lat 6 off a win. Give me the Owls -4.5!

50* S ALABAMA/TROY TUESDAY NIGHT ATS NO-BRAINER (S Alabama +16) 

Even though Troy has a losing record at 2-3 and been a terrible bet this season (1-4 ATS), they are the much more familiar team to the public. Just last year the Trojans won 10-games and have upset the likes of Nebraska and LSU the past two seasons.

South Alabama on the other hand is a team the public wants nothing to do with. The Jaguars are sitting at 1-5 with their only win against a FCS opponent. This is after they went just 3-9 last year and 4-8 in 2017. I got a hard time not thinking this line isn’t inflated in favor of Troy.

It’s not like the Jaguars haven’t been playing well. They only lost 13 at ULM (trailed by just 7 going in the 4th quarter) and should have won outright as a double-digit dog last time out against Georgia Southern.

The big concern with South Alabama is definitely the lack of offensive fire-power. Jaguars haven’t scored more than 21 against a FBS opponent this season. With that said, Troy’s defense has not been good. The Trojans have allowed 40+ on 3 separate occasions. They are horrible against the pass, allowing 10.2 yards/pass attempt. They are also giving up 6.3 yards/play.

You also can’t ignore the history of the series. Road team has won outright each of the last four and South Alabama is 3-1 ATS during this stretch. This is not the same Troy team as years past. Give me the Jaguars +16!