50* PATRIOTS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -4.5) 

I really like the Rams to cover the 4.5-point spread at home against the Patriots. I think a lot of people are taking New England in this game because of the fact that the Pats have won 4 of 5 and are off a 45-0 thrashing of the Chargers. They also remember what Belichick and that Pats defense did to Goff and the Rams offense in the Super Bowl a few years back. 

I just don't that I'm buying New England being this vastly improved team all of the sudden. I think the offense has major flaws. While they scored 45 in their last game, they finished that game with fewer than 300 yards of total offense (291). Pats are a run-first team and that plays right into the strength of the Rams defense. 

I also think McVay and Rams offense will be better prepared for what Belichick is going to throw at them this time around. I'm not saying they are going to go off for 30+ points or anything like that, but I think if they can get into the mid 20s, they have a great shot of winning by 5+ points. Give me the Rams -4.5! 

40* PITT/GA TECH NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Georgia Tech +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Georgia Tech catching a TD at home against Pittsburgh. This will be senior night for the Yellow Jackets, as it's their last home game. Definitely will have Georgia Tech motivated to play, as will the fact that it's a prime time game at home. 

I also feel like we are getting value with the Yellow Jackets because of last week's 13-23 loss at NC State. That was a very misleading final score, as Georgia Tech repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. They actually outgained Virginia 412-397. 

Pitt is a quality team and will have an advantage in rest, but in the time since their last game against Clemson, they have had one of their best players opt out to prepare for the draft in likely 1st round pick Rashad Weaver. I just think Pitt is getting too much respect here. Panthers are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their so-called great defense is giving up 32.8 ppg and just under 400 yards/game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7! 

50* COWBOYS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -7.5) 

I just think this is the spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens have went from one of the top Super Bowl contenders to a team that is on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the AFC. With the 3 Wild Card teams (Browns, Dolphins and Colts) all sitting at 8-4 or better, Baltimore absolutely has to have this game. They are every bit in it with a win, which would move them to 7-5. If they fall to 6-6, they are in serious trouble. 

I know this team has had quite the deal with Covid, but they are getting a lot of guys back. It's also worth pointing out that while they are playing on just 5 days of rest, this will be just their second game since Nov. 22nd. 

I also love the matchup. Dallas can't stop the run and that's the one thing this Ravens team does really well. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys offensive line has been absolutely decimated with injuries. I just don't think they will be able to do much of anything on that side of the ball. Give me the Ravens -7.5! 

50* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +7) 

I like the price we are getting with Washington against the Steelers. It's been pretty hectic for Pittsburgh of late. They had a game scheduled against the Ravens on Thanksgiving that didn't get played until last Wednesday. That was a big division game and it ended up being a lot closer than expected. 

Now the Steelers have to find a way to get back up on just 4 days of rest to face a hungry and vastly improved Washington squad. Alex Smith might not be the QB he was, but he's better than what the Football Team had. Washington also has a dominant defensive line that I believe will make it really tough on what I think is a very overrated Steelers offense. 

I know Steelers defense has been really strong this season, but they have struggled a bit against the run of late. Washington can definitely take advantage of that and if Smith gets rolling they can win this game outright. Give me the Football Team +7! 

40* COLTS/TEXANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3)

I’m going to take the Indianapolis Colts -3 on the road against the Houston Texans. Perfect time to buy low on Indy off an ugly 26-45 loss at home to the Titans and perfect time to sell high on the Texans off a 41-25 thrashing of a bad Lions team on Thanksgiving Day. 

One thing I like here with the Colts is a lot of their key guys on the injury report are trending towards playing. Top RB Jonathan Taylor has been activated from the Covid List, center Ryan Kelly and guard Quinten Nelson are both practicing in full and there’s a good chance defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry will be activated off the Covid list prior to the game. 

While Indy is getting key guys back, Houston just got news that leading wide out Will Fuller and top corner Bradley Robey are both suspended for the remainder of the season after getting caught using performance enhancing drugs. 

It was already going to be hard enough for Deshaun Watson against a pissed of Colts defense that has been shredded their last two games. Same thing with the Houston defense, who is simply not very good. The numbers look decent here of late, but they have played a depleted Lions team that was missing all their skill players, a one dimensional Patriots offense and a mediocre Browns offense in bad conditions. 

Even with those 3 decent showings, Houston is still giving up 27.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. I think Indy is going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Colts have scored 26 or more in 5 of their last 6 games and sitting 9th in the league in scoring at 27.65 ppg. Give me Indianapolis -3

40* JAGUARS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Vikings -10) 

I'm going to roll the dice here with Minnesota. After an ugly loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings responded in a big way last week by turning a 21-10 4th quarter deficit into a 28-27 victory. Minnesota is now 4-1 in their last 5 and are 5-6 overall after starting the season 1-5. 

Jaguars haven't won a game since their upset of the Colts in Week 1, as they enter here on a 10-game losing streak. Jacksonville has covered 3 of their last 4 with most of that coming via the backdoor. I just don't trust the Jags to keep this one close. 

Minnesota should be able to do as they please on the offensive side of the ball. Jags aren't going to be able to stop Dalvin Cook and that's going to open up things for big plays in the passing game. 

I also think you have to look at the fact that Mike Glennon is starting over a healthy Gardner Minshew. If that isn't trying to lose on purpose I don't know what it. They 100% don't think Glennon is any kind of long-term answer. Give me the Vikings -10! 

50* BENGALS/DOLPHINS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dolphins -10.5) 

I was on the wrong end of an ugly Bengals cover last week, as I had the Giants -5.5 and Cincinnati somehow got the cover doing next to nothing on offense the entire game. That's not going to deter me from fading the Bengals again, even at this big number. 

There's only a handful of games left and Miami is 1-game back of the Bills for the AFC East lead. I just don't see this team not showing up for this game at home and that's really the only way I see them not covering here. The Dolphins are even better defensively than the Giants and even if it's Tua and not Fitzmagic, Miami's offense is more potent than New York's, especially with them getting back running back Myles Gaskin after he missed the last 4 games. 

This Dolphins defense has made a living this year turning turnovers into points. I would be shocked here if they didn't have multiple turnovers in this one. Bengals had 3 last week against the Giants. Give me Miami -10.5! 

50* COLORADO/ARIZONA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado -7) 

I don't know if it's because the Pac-12 started so late, but I'm not so sure people are taking notice to what Colorado is doing in the first year under head coach Karl Dorrell. The Buffaloes are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS and have been winning with both their offense and their defense. 

They do have a couple misleading scores. They beat UCLA 48-42, but had a 35-7 lead in that game. They also narrowly beat Stanford 35-32, despite leading in that game 35-16 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

I just don't think taking the foot off the gas will be an issue here against a struggling Arizona team that has started out 0-3. Wildcats are playing almost no defense. They are allowing 35.0 ppg, 460 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They have allowed 229 rush yards/game (5.2 yards/carry) and opposing QB's have completed 65% of their passes against them. Give me Colorado -7! 

40* TULSA/NAVY NCAAF VEGAS CASH COW (Tulsa -12) 

I think when some look at this game for Tulsa they see a big lookahead with Cincinnati, but I don't think that game is on their minds right now. The Golden Hurricane need to win this game against Navy to lock up a spot in the ACC title game. They don't want to have to go into next week's game needing to beat Cincinnati to play them again. 

I think if anyone is going to look past this game, it would be Navy. The Midshipmen have Army on deck and there's no game that means more to them than that one. With that said, even if Navy shows up to play I like Tulsa. 

That's because the Golden Hurricane are going to be ready for that option attack. They have had plenty of time to get ready having not played since Nov. 19 and their last game was against Tulane, who has a lot of option scheme to their offense. I'm pretty confident Tulsa will be the one establishing the ground game in this one, as they face a Navy defense that gives up a ridiculous 5.6 yards/carry (223 ypg). Give me Tulsa -12! 

40* TEXAS A&M/AUBURN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Texas A&M -6.5)

’m going to lay the 6.5-points on the road with No. 5 Texas A&M as they visit Auburn. I just think there’s too much value here with the Aggies laying less than touchdown in this matchup. We can bank on Texas A&M being locked in for this game after pretty poor showing at home last week against LSU. It was just one of those games where the offense couldn’t get it going, but one thing this team has been able to do is not let bad performances stack on top of each other. 

There’s also a ton of incentive for Texas A&M to play well. Like it or not. They are No. 5 in the rankings and if they win out they got a decent shot of sneaking into the 4-team playoff because of their head-to-head to win against Florida. 

I know this is Auburn’s senior day and last home game of the season, but I just question how motivated the Tigers are going to be for this game. They just played their biggest game of the season last week against Alabama and have nothing left but pride to play for at this point. I don’t think the likely letdown from that game against the Crimson Tide is being factored enough into this line. 

I think it’s also worth pointing hut that I don’t think Auburn is as good as their 5-3 record would lead on. They have two double-digit wins against Kentucky and Tennessee that were much closer than the final scores would indicate, if not for a bad call they lose at home to Arkansas and they trailed Ole Miss late in the 4th quarter of a game they ended up winning by 7. 

Bo Nix hasn’t made that big sophomore jump that Auburn fans were hoping for. He’s thrown for more than 250 yards just twice in 8 games. He’s been sacked 18 times and has thrown just 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. 

I believe with Texas A&M’s talent up front defense, all the pressure is going to fall on Nix in this game and I will gladly take my chances that he doesn’t deliver. The Aggies rank 5th in the country giving up just 87.1 rushing yards/game. Give me the Aggies -6.5! 

40* TEXAS/K-STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas St +7.5)

This is one of those situations that I can't wait to play at the end of the season. If you look at the talent on the roster and the stats leading up to this game, it's going to tell you to play Texas. I just think you can throw out the numbers in this one. 

This is just a spot where it's almost impossible for a team like Texas to show up. The Longhorns are coming off a loss in the final minutes to Iowa State in a game they had to win to keep alive their hopes of playing in the Big 12 title game. Now there's nothing at stake and it only makes it that much harder to show up on the road. Not to mention K-State isn't a big rival or anything. 

I know the Wildcats have lost 4 in a row, but that almost makes me like them more in this spot. This is K-State's last game of the season, which means the last time these seniors will take the field at home. I know Texas isn't what Texas was, but these Big 12 teams still get up for the Longhorns. I really think K-State can not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me the Wildcats +7.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISSOURI NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Arkansas +3) 

I think the books are setting bait with Missouri as a slim 2.5 to 3 point home favorite against Arkansas. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Last time out they destroyed Vanderbilt 41-0 as a mere 14-point favorite. That's great and all, but I just don't think it's worth getting all that excited beating LSU, Kentucky Vandy at home and S Carolina on the road. 

Also, while Missouri still has a game on deck next week against Vandy (for now), this is it for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is going to be motivated to end this season on a strong note. This is the best the Razorbacks have looked in years. They had covered 6 straight to open the season before losing their last two. They got blown out by Florida, but only lost by 3 as a 1.5-point dog to LSU. 

Arkansas has had all kinds of time to prepare, as they have been off since Nov. 21. I just think their defense is built to slow down an offense like Missouri, who really wants to air it out. More than anything, I think the hogs are the better team and the books certainly agree given the line they set with the recent results that have taken place. Give me Arkansas +3! 

40* GIANTS/BENGALS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Giants -5.5) 

I’m going to lay the 6-points with the New York Giants on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. I have big time concerns with the Bengals over the final 6 weeks after losing Joe Burrow to a pretty serious knee injury. I think his injury could suck the life out of this team. They aren’t making the playoffs and without Burrow the Jets probably wouldn’t be the only winless team going into Week 12. 

Burrow suffered the injury less than 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. From that point on the Bengals offense managed a mere 25 yards of total offense on 21 plays. Ryan Finley came in for Burrow and went 3 of 10 for 30 yards with an interception and was sacked 4 times. 

Word is that Brandon Allen will start instead of Finley against the Giants, but I’m not expecting much better results. Allen’s played in 3 games since being drafted in the 6th round of the 2016 draft. All 3 coming last year with the Broncos. In those 3 starts he completed 39 of 84 attempts (46.4%) with two interceptions and was sacked 9 times. 

Sure the Bengals have some decent weapons at receiver, but they got no running game and an awful offensive line. People don’t realize just how great Burrow was playing given what he had to work with. 

That Cincinnati offense will be up against a Giants defense that can get after the quarterback. New York is T-12th in the league with 25 sacks. 

On of all that, there’s more to like here with New York. The Giants have quietly been playing well for a while now. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have covered 4 straight. They are just 3-4 SU in these 7 games, but 3 of the losses were by 3-points or less and the other was by just 8 on the road at the Rams. 

You also have to factor in the Giants are coming off their bye week and with a win against the Bengals they will move into a T-1st place in the NFC East with whoever wins with the Redskins/Cowboys game on Thanksgiving. 

This is definitely one of the few times that I would ever consider laying almost a touchdown on the road with a 3-win team, but I really would be shocked if this game was close at all. Give me the Giants -6! 

40* DOLPHINS/JETS NFL NO-BRAINER (Dolphins -6.5) 

I backed the Dolphins before the news that Tua was going to be hurt, but that was with the expectation that he likely wouldn't play. Even if he had been a go, I still would have liked Miami in this spot. I love them now that Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback, as the offense was clearly moving the ball better with him under center. 

There's no reason that Fitz and the Dolphins can't score 30 points in this game. I know Darnold will be back for the Jets, but that doesn't really concern me against a very underrated Dolphins defense. The Jets are scoring 14.9 ppg and giving up 30.2 ppg. Darnold isn't fixing that. 

The only concern here would be Miami not giving New York their full attention, but I just don't see that happening. Dolphins should be locked in off a loss last week and they are trying to win the division. They are just 1-game back of Buffalo and can't afford to lose here. Give me Miami -6.5!  

40* MISS ST/OLE MISS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Mississippi St +10) 

I’m going to take the Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 in Saturday’s showdown with in-state rival Ole Miss. I not only think Mississippi State will cover the double-digit spread, but I give them a legit shot at winning this game outright. 

No one could have predicted how bad the Bulldogs offense would be after their season-opening 44-34 win at LSU. K.J. Costello threw for over 600 yards and there was all kinds of talk about how Mike Leach’s offense was going to torment the SEC. 

It went the exact opposite. Over Mississippi State’s next 4 games they would score just 30 points and turn the ball over 15 times. 

Costello would eventually get hurt and it’s opened up the door for true freshman Will Rogers to get his feet wet. Rogers has gotten better and better with each outing. Last week he was sensational against a Georgia team that was coming off a bye. Rogers completed 41 of 52 attempts for 336 yards, as Mississippi State narrowly lost 24-31 on the road to the Bulldogs as a 26.5-point underdog. In his 2 starts he’s completed 78% of his attempts and the Bulldogs offense didn’t have a single turnover in either start. 

He’s not the only freshman that’s been making noise on the offensive side of the ball. True freshman running back Dillon Johnson scored twice on the ground and true freshman wide out Jaden Walley had 7 catches for a team-high 115 yards, including a 51 yard TD pass. 

I’m pretty confident that the Bulldogs can keep this momentum on the offensive side going against Ole Miss. The Rebels are the worst defensive team in the SEC. They are giving up 40.9 ppg and 536 yards/game. The only team they have held under 33 points is Vanderbilt and that was a bit fluky as the Commodores scored just 21 points despite racking up over 400 yards. 

I know that Ole Miss has a great offense and are going to put up points, but defense hasn’t exactly been a weakness for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are only giving up 367 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. 

I really think that you could make a strong case here that Mississippi State’s offense will have the easier time moving the football. No way should they be getting this many points. Give me the Bulldogs +10! 

40* KENT ST/BUFFALO NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Kent State +7.5) 

I will gladly take more than a touchdown with the Golden Flashes. I love this Kent State team. More than anything, I love their head coach Sean Lewis. Unfortunately for the Flashes, this is probably it for him. I would be shocked if he's not a head coach at a much bigger program after this season. 

Lewis installed what is known as the "FlashFast" offense when he arrived. It's working. Kent State has put up 52.7 ppg and 616 ypg. A big reason for those numbers is senior QB Dustin Crum, who is averaging 10.3 yards/attempt and has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio. 

This is a team coming into the year that I thought could win the MAC. So while they have benefited by playing their last two games against BG and Akron, you can't fault them for the schedule. There's every reason to believe they can not only hang but beat this Buffalo team. 

They did exactly that last year, beating the Bulls 30-27 as a 6.5-point dog. I just think this line should be closer to 3.5. Give me Kent State +7.5!  

50* MARYLAND/INDIANA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Maryland +12) 

This is a situational spot that I love to back. It's all about fading teams like Indiana that are off a crushing loss. It's so much about losing the game, it's the fact that with that loss they also lost any hope that they could shock the world and win the Big Ten East. 

That type of defeat also hurts that much more when you feel like you could have won the game. It didn't look good for Indiana early, as they trailed Ohio State 28-7 at the half. Hoosiers had the ball twice in the final minutes down just 7. 

I just don't see how this Indiana team can talk themselves into getting up for a game against Maryland. Given what we have seen out of the Terps in their last two games, they might win this one outright. Maryland beat Minnesota 45-44 as 17.5-point dog and then won 35-19 as a 27.5 point dog at Penn State. 

After a dreadful first start against Northwestern, Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's younger brother) has been outstanding, throwing for 676 yards and 6 TDs in those two upset wins over the Gophers and Nittany Lions. Give me Maryland +12! 

40* STANFORD/CAL NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Stanford +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinal at basically a pick'em against the Golden Bears. I think we are getting a great price on Stanford in this one. The Cardinal are a team I was really high on coming into this year. I'm still not sure they don't beat Oregon in their opener if Mills doesn't test positive for covid right before the game. 

The defense hasn't been great in their first two games, but they will be facing a Cal offense that is averaging a mere 4.3 yards/play in their two games against UCLA and Oregon State. This is also not the same Golden Bear defense to what we are use to seeing under Wilcox. Cal is giving up 224 yards/game and 5.3 yards/carry against the run and 6.1 yards/play overall. 

Also revenge angle here for Stanford, as Cal won this rivalry game last year for the first time in 10 years. Give me the Cardinal +1.5! 

50* NOTRE DAME/N CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -4.5) 

I love the value here with the Irish laying less than a touchdown against the Tar Heels. I got a ton of respect for what Mack Brown is doing with this UNC program, but I just don't see the Tar Heels making a game of it. 

It all comes down to defense and only one of these teams play it. North Carolina has won two games this season giving up 45 or more points. They also lost a game against a bad Virginia team allowing 44. They certainly aren't slowing down a Notre Dame offense that has scored 40+ in 5 of their last 7 games, including each of their last two. 

I'm not going to say that the Irish will be able to keep UNC from scoring, but Notre Dame should at least be able to get some stops. The Irish are only giving up 16.6 ppg and 304 yards/game on the season. 

Also laying more than a field goal isn't as concerning in a game where a lot of points figure to be scored. Much more likely that if Notre Dame wins they do so by more than the number. Give me the Irish -4.5! 

40* NEBRASKA/IOWA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Nebraska +14) 

This is just too many points to pass up with Nebraska in Friday's big rivalry game with Iowa. It just feels like we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here from last week's results with the Hawkeyes steamrolling Penn State on the road 41-21, while the Cornhuskers inexplicably lost 23-41 at home to Illinois as a 17-point favorite. 

I just think that poor showing against the Illini was more of Nebraska just not showing up ready to play that game. They aren't going to do that against Iowa. They are going to give everything they got to make a game of this and let's not forget they too beat Penn State and gave Northwestern all they could handle on the road. 

Each of the last two in this series have been decided by 3-points or less, including Nebraska's last trip to Iowa, where they lost 28-31 as a 8.5-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot here for Iowa to win by more than 2 touchdowns. Give me Nebraska +14! 

50* FBALL TEAM/COWBOYS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +3) 

I will gladly take the 3-points with Washington, as they visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The books know everyone is going to be on Dallas in this game, especially after their big win over the Vikings last Sunday. It wreaks of a trap. 

What people will overlook with the Cowboys strong showing against the Vikings is that Minnesota's defense is not very good. The biggest thing is the Vikings don't have the talent on the defensive line to exploit a bad Dallas offensive line. That's not the case against the Foortball Team. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league. 

People also are quick to forget that these two teams played once already and the Football Team won convincingly 25-3 with a 397 to 142 edge in total yards. Andy Dalton was just 9 of 19 for 75 yards in that game and the Washington defense racked up 6 sacks in that contest. 

Cowboys defense had no answer for Washington's run game, as they racked up 208 yards on 39 attempts (5.3 yards/carry). Kyle Allen started that game, but only threw for 194 yards, so no reason not to expect the same or better numbers from Alex Smith in the rematch. Give the Football Team +3! 

40* TEXANS/LIONS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Texans -3) 

I just can't help myself here with the Texans laying only a field goal on the road against the Lions. Detroit is an absolute mess right now. There's clearly something wrong with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He was just 18 of 33 for 178 yards against a pretty suspect Carolina defense. 

Detroit's defense has also been ravaged with injuries in the secondary, most notably at cornerback. They just let Carolina backup QB, P.J. Walker complete 24 of 34 for 258 yards in his first ever start. The Panthers won that game 20-0, but it should have been a lot worse, as Walker threw two picks in the endzone. 

I look for Deshaun Watson to have an absolute field day in this one and while the Texans defense isn't great, they should have no problem slowing down this Detroit offense. Either way, Watson and the offense should score enough here to cash in an easy win and cover. Give me Houston -3! 

50* RAMS/BUCS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -4) 

There's been a lot made of the Bucs struggles in prime time games, but I don't see that being an issue here. Tom Brady knows how to win these big games and I love that he's got a full compliment of weapons at his disposal against the Rams. 

I know LA's defense has put up great numbers and just had a great game last week against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I'm just not buying into them being as good as their numbers. 

Rams have played a pretty easy schedule. They started the season with 4 of their first 5 games against the NFC East. Their other 5 opponents have been the Bills (L), 49ers (L), Bears (W), Dolphins (L) and Seahawks (W). 

I also think not enough is being made here of the fact that the Rams won't have left tackle Andrew Witworth. He's one of the best at his position. There's a massive drop off from Witworth and backup Joe Noteboom. 

I see that being a big problem against a really strong Tampa Bay defensive front. It's also worth pointing out that LA's offense really needs to be able to run the ball to set up easy throws for Goff. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, as they are allowing just 77 ypg an 3.3 yards/carry vs the run this year. Give me the Bucs -4! 

40* VIKINGS/COWBOYS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -7) 

No need to overthink this one. I don't care that the Cowboys are off their bye week and the last time we saw them they nearly won outright as a 14-point home dog to the Steelers. This is still an awful team and I'm shocked they are even considering about going back to Andy Dalton. 

On top of this, the Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Minnesota has won 3 straight. They did barely scrape by with a 19-13 win at Chicago last week, but that was the Bears defense and their ability to slow down Cook. Cowboys run defense is awful. I look for Cook to have a big game and that's going to make life easy for Cousins against an equally bad Cowboys secondary. I'm shocked this line isn't more than a touchdown. Give me the Vikings -7! 

50* PACKERS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +1.5)

I love the value here with Green Bay catching points against the Colts. I know Indianapolis has a great defense, but it's more suited to stop the run than it is the pass. I just think with the Packers recent struggles we are getting them at a great price in a great matchup. 

Not only do I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense when they have the ball, but I also think it's a great matchup for the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest weakness is their run defense and running the ball is far from the strength of this Colts team. Indy is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and that's against teams who give up on average 4.3 yards/carry. 

I also just don't trust Philip Rivers in this spot. As a starter, Rivers is just 11-21 ATS in his last 32 starts at home as a favorite. Green Bay is also a great bet after a game where they failed to cover. Packers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a ATS loss. Give me Green Bay +1.5! 

40* TITANS/RAVENS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Ravens -6)

I'm going to take the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at home against the Tennessee Titans. I just think this is the ideal spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens are a pissed off bunch after an ugly 17-23 loss at New England. Baltimore won the yardage battle 357 to 308, but just a few plays here and there that really set the offense back. Not to mention mother nature played a big role with wind and rain. 

I still think this Ravens team is still one of the best teams in the league and while everyone has been quick to jump off the Lamar bandwagon, I think he's going to have himself a big day here against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 26.1 ppg, 398 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. They have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. 

Not only are they giving up a lot of points, but their offense has cooled off considerably since the start of the year. Tennessee averaged 32.8 ppg on their way to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule that had them play the Broncos, Jags, Vikings, Bills and Texans. Since that 5-0 start they are 1-3 with their only win over a equally overrated Bears team. During this 1-3 stretch they are only averaging 21.3 ppg

Lastly, this is not just another game for Baltimore. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC Last year and would lose 28-12 at home to the Titans. Tennessee couldn't have got much luckier in that game. Baltimore somehow managed just 12 points with Jackson throwing for 365 yards and rushing for 143. Ravens said after the game that they were to blame for not giving the Titans their full attention. You can't say that and not show up with something to prove the next time you play. I'll gladly take my chances with the Ravens winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me Baltimore -6!

40* STEELERS/JAGUARS NFL NO-BRAINER (Jaguars +10.5) 

I went against the Steelers last week and paid the price, as Pittsburgh laid it on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Looking back that wasn't a great play given the Steelers were off that ugly game against the Cowboys. 

Losing that play is not going to keep me from fading Pittsburgh this week at Jacksonville. This is a bit of a trap game for the Steelers, as they got a huge home game on deck against division rival Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. 

The other big thing here is that this Jaguars team has continued to come out and play hard. Jaguars nearly won outright as a 14-point dog last week at Green Bay, losing 20-24. The week before they only lost by 2 to the Texans as a 7-point dog. 

It's also worth pointing out that for whatever reason the Steelers just don't seem to play well against this Jaguars team. In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in 10 starts vs Jacksonville. Steelers are also a mere 1-9 ATS last 10 times they have been a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. Give me the Jaguars +10.5! 

40*  BENGALS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Washington -1) 

I think we are getting too good a price here to pass up with Washington at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Joe Burrow and that Cincinnati offense got a bit of a wakeup call last week, as Burrow went just 21 of 40 for 213 yards and the Bengals managed just 10 points. 

Burrow was sacked 4 times in that game and I just wonder how that Cincinnati offensive line is going to hold up against a really good Washington defensive line. I really think the Bengals are going to find it hard to move the ball in this game. 

While the Football Team comes in off a 30-27 loss at Detroit, I think they gained some momentum in defeat. Alex Smith rallied this team from a 21-point deficit and wound up throwing for 390 yards. I think Smith is in store for another big game here. 

Lot of people overlook the fact that Washington is a few breaks away from being on a 4-game winning streak. They are just 1-3 in their last 4, but all 3 losses were by 3-points or less. I think we are getting a great price on the better team, playing at home. Give me Washington -1! 

40* TENNESSEE/AUBURN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee +10.5) 

I will gladly take the 10.5-points with the Volunteers on the road against Auburn. I think this is a great spot to buy low on Tennessee. The Vols come in having lost 4 straight and are 0-4 ATS in those 4 defeats. I expect a very motivated Tennessee team coming off a bye week.

While Auburn hasn't played a game in November, they might have a hard time getting up for this game. That's because the Iron Bowl against Alabama is looming next week. That's Auburn's Super Bowl. 

I also think Auburn's lackluster offense and subpar defense make this a great matchup for Tennessee. Look for the Vols to get their run game going in this one and I think that's the key to this offense having success. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Vols won outright. Give me Tennessee +10.5! 

40* VA TECH/PITT NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home dog against the Hokies. The Panthers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time they were out with a 41-17 blowout win at Florida State. I look for Pitt to carry over that momentum with a big showing at home against a reeling Virginia Tech team. 

Hokies ACC hopes have come crashing to a close, as Va Tech now has 3 losses in ACC play after last week's crushing 24-25 loss at home to Miami. That's one of those losses that are really hard to bounce back from. 

I also don't like this matchup at all for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a run dominant team. They come in averaging 263 ypg on 43 attempts/game. That plays right into the strength of the Pitt defense, which is giving up just 79 yards/game and 2.2 yards/carry vs the run. Give me the Panthers +3.5! 

40* WISCONSIN/NORTHWESTERN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Northwestern +7.5) 

I'm going to take the No. 19 ranked Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. I just think the price is right with Northwestern as more than a touchdown dog at home against Wisconsin. I actually think the Wildcats can win this game outright.

Even though Northwestern comes in 4-0, ranked in the Top 25, I still think this team is flying under the radar. The Wildcats only went 3-9 last year, but with 19 returning starters and Indiana grad transfer Peyton Ramsey added in to be the new starting quarterback, this was a team that was primed to have a massive turnaround. 

Ramsey has really helped the offense improve over last year, when they averaged just 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg, but it's the defense that is what makes this Wildcats team special. Northwestern is allowing just 14.0 ppg, which is 11.9 ppg fewer than what their opponents are averaging. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/carry against the run and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are allowing just 302 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. 

I know Wisconsin's offense has looked great in their first two games, but they played an awful Illinois team and a Michigan team that just isn't very good and I believe lost a lot of their fight after how poorly they started the year. Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz was spectacular against the Fighting Illini, going 20 of 21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs. He was much more average against Michigan, going just 12 of 22 for 127 yards. 

I'm confident here that Northwestern's defense can hold the Badgers in check. Keep in mind last year when these two teams played, Wisconsin came into the game off a shocking 35-14 blowout win over then No. 11 Michigan and barely held on for a 24-15 home win over Northwestern. Badgers only managed 243 total yards, totaling just 130 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Note that was a Wisconsin team that was 3-0 averaging 48.3 ppg and 507 ypg. Give me the Wildcats +7.5

50* BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Penn State +3) 

I will gladly take the points here with Penn State at home against the Hawkeyes. I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on the Nittany Lions, who have went from Big Ten title contender to a team that some are questioning if they will win a game after their 0-4 start. 

I jut think losing their opener at Indiana, a game they should have won and then losing the next week at home to Ohio State, really put this team in a bad spot mentally. I believe it played into losses to both Maryland and Nebraska. 

I got a feeling that being a home dog will light a fire under this team and have them ready to roll against a pretty mediocre Iowa team. Hawkeyes have dominated their last two games against Michigan State and Minnesota, but those are two bad teams. I don't see the Hawkeyes running at will against this Penn State defense and that could make it real hard for their offense to score. 

Another thing to note is I think the offense is going to get more of Will Levis at quarterback, though both him and Sean Clifford are expected to play. Either way I think the Nittany Lions offense will be able to move the ball. Give me Penn State +3! 

50* CARDINALS/SEAHAWKS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY on Seahawks -3

I will gladly lay just a field goal at home with the Seahawks on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. There's a lot to like about Seattle in this spot. For one, everyone is down on this team after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 16-23 loss at the Rams last week. Russell Wilson has went from MVP frontrunner to a guy taking a lot of the blame for the team losing with his costly turnovers. 

Factor all that with the fact that Seattle will be out for revenge from a loss to Arizona earlier this season and I just think we are going to get a big time performance out of not just Wilson but this entire team. At the same time, I think Arizona could struggle in this spot. They are coming off a crazy Hail Mary win over the Bills and it could be hard for them to not have a lull after such an emotional high a few days ago. 

Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS under Pete Carroll in home games off a division loss by 7 points or less and have not just won in this spot, they have dominated by an average score of 31.7 to 16.3 Seahawks are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 revenging a loss of 7-points or less and 20-10 in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me Seattle -3! 

50* VIKINGS/BEARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bears +3.5) 

Love Chicago as a small home dog on MNF. I was hoping the line would get past 3, as the hook is huge. Bears always seem to be in close games.

That's not saying I think they will need it. I'm going to bet on Chicago's defense and hope we get something from an offense that will have a new look to it. 

Let's look at the defense first. Bears have had their way with Minnesota's offense since Cousins came to town. Chicago has swept the season series each of the last two years. All 4 games they held the Vikings offense to 20 or less. 

A big reason they succeed against the Vikings, is they have been able to contain Dalvin Cook. In 3 games against the Bears he's totaled just 86 yards on 34 carries, which is a mere 2.5 yards/carry. Cousins just isn't good enough to win the game on his own against an elite secondary like Chicago. Not to mention he's 0-9 in his career as a starter on Monday Night Football. 

First things first with the Bears offense, the offensive line is a major concern. There's reason to be optimistic that it can make do in this one. Vikings have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. Chicago is also changing things up with the play calling. Head coach Matt Nagy is giving up the duties to Bill Lazor. They also may get a spark at RB, as Lamar Miller is set to make his debut tonight. Give me the Bears +3.5! 

40* BENGALS/STEELERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Bengals +7.5) 

I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This just feels like a few too many points for the Steelers to be laying at home in this spot. I know the Steelers didn't cover in last week's game against Dallas and nearly lost outright as a two touchdown favorite, but most will just chalk that up as a letdown following their big win against the Ravens. 

Just because they didn't cover in that game doesn't mean they are going to be showing value this week. The books know this is a team the public wants to bet and are going to put a premium on them. I feel like that's exactly what we have here. 

I still have major concerns with the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NFL scoring 29.4 ppg, but are way back at 25th in the league in total offense at 341.0 ypg.  Nothing speaks more to this than the fact that they had to scratch and claw their way to 24 points against an awful Dallas defense. If the Cowboys can give this offense fits, so can the Bengals. 

As for Cincinnati's offense facing off against a good Steelers defense, I think they can move the ball. Joe Burrow has lived up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick and then some. He's currently 8th in the NFL averaging 284 passing yards/game, ahead of the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Drew Brees. If you go back to his days with LSU, Burrow has gone a ridiculous 19-6 (76%) ATS in his last 25 starts. 

Another huge factor here is rest. Pittsburgh has had to play each of the last 3 weeks on the road, as a result of their original Week 8 bye being moved to Week 4 because of their Week 4 game against the Titans getting postponed due to covid. While the Steelers are running on fumes, Cincinnati is going to be extremely fresh coming off their bye week. Give me the Bengals +7.5!

40* SEAHAWKS/RAMS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Rams -1) 

I played and lost on the Seahawks last week. I just want to note that even had Seattle went on to win, I still would be looking to play the Rams at this price. This is an ideal spot to play on Los Angeles, who I have to think has had two really good weeks of practice with their upcoming schedule. After this game they are at Tampa Bay before hosting the 49ers and visiting Arizona (3 division games and 1 of the NFC's best). 

As for the Seahawks, I think we could see a bit of a letdown here. Seattle had to make the long trip clear across the country to play Buffalo and while it's a much shorter trip, they are on the road again this week. 

I also was expecting a lot more out of that defense with the guys they added into the mix. There's clearly still a lot of problems in that secondary. I'm confident McShay will have a gameplan in place to exploit that weakness to the fullest. Give me the Rams -1! 

40* 49ERS/SAINTS NFL ATS MASSACRE (49ers +10) 

I will gladly take the double-digits with San Francisco. Everyone has thrown this 49ers team under the bus, but if you watch this SF team, you know there's no quit in them. They are going to keep coming at you no matter who is out of the lineup. This team is also fresh, as they have been off since last Thursday. 

While we can expect a max effort here from the 49ers, this is a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Saints just played their biggest game of the season. One they won 38-3 despite very few people giving them a chance of winning the game. It's human nature to relax a little after a win of that magnitude, especially when your next game is against a team that you know you are better than. Give me the 49ers +10! 

40* CHARGERS/DOLPHINS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers +3) 

I know the Chargers have a way of finding ways to lose games, but every team loses games they should win. It's just magnified when a team does it a lot in a short period of time. This trend only last for so long. You are going to start winning games if you have leads in the 4th quarter every time out. 

I'm a really big Justin Herbert fan. I think the Chargers struck gold with him. If LA was winning these close games instead of losing them, the media hype on Herbert would be 10x more than it is now. He's played 1 fewer game than a lot of guys, so he's just No. 11 in yards, but he's 3rd in the league at 306.6 ypg. Only Dak and Russell Wilson are ahead of him. 

It's not just the yards either. Herbert is not making the costly mistakes at the rate we typically see from young QBs. He's got 17 TD passes to just 5 interceptions. 

I just trust the Chargers offense a lot more. Miam's 2-0 since Tua took over, but have not moved the ball great. They only had 145 total yards and 3.0 yards/play in his first start against the Rams. They put up 34 points on Arizona, but only had 312 yards and 5.6 yards/play. 

I think Tua and that Dolphins offense will find it really hard to score against a Chargers defense that is strong at the point of attack. Give me LA +3! 

50* BILLS/CARDINALS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -2) 

I will gladly sell high on the Bills after their big win over the Seahawks last week. I just don't trust Josh Allen, especially on the road. Arizona's defense isn't great, but it is a little better at defending the pass than the run, which is great against a Bills team that can't run the ball. 

On top of that, the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated in this spot. Arizona was just upset at home 34-31 by the Dolphins. It's a game that couldn't have set well with the players, as they outgained Miami 442 to 312. 

I look for Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense to have a field day here. Unlike the Seahawks, who couldn't get the run game going against a bad Bills run defense, Arizona will run all over this defense. Cardinals have rushed for 100+ yards in every game. Give me the Cardinals -2! 

40* BROWNS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) 

I just can't pass up the Browns as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Texans. The books just can't get a price right on Houston. The Texans are just 1-7 ATS this season. They aren't just not covering, they are a mere 2-6 SU. 

I think Houston is really struggling with the reality of not being a playoff team, which they definitely thought they were coming into the year. There's just not enough weapons offensively and the defense can't stop anybody. They just let a 6th round rookie in his first start throw all over them. 

The big key here being they aren't good against the run and we know that if the Browns can get their running game going, this offense can really move the football up and down the field. 

The Texans don't have a running game to fall back on and that's going to make it much easier for Cleveland to put them in some 3rd and long situations and get them off the field. Give me the Browns -3! 

50* BUCS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -5.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with Tom Brady and the Bucs in last week's game at home against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. It happens. Tampa Bay got punched in the mouth early and just couldn't get back up off the mat. 

It can be hard to trust a team that looked that bad in their last game, but I love backing good teams in this spot, especially ones with a top tier quarterback. I fully expect Brady and the Bucs to play one of their best games of the season. 

All anyone is talking about is "Teddy Covers", but I just think the Panthers are not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. I just don't think that o-line will be able to hold up against Tampa's pass rush. Give me the Bucs -5.5! 

50* FLORIDA/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas +18) 

I'll take the points here with the Razorbacks, as we will gladly fade No. 6 ranked Florida after last week's huge 44-28 win over Arkansas. Not only do I love the situation here with the Gators primed for a letdown, but this Razorbacks team has been a money-making machine in 2020. 

With last week's come-from-behind win over Tennessee, Arkansas is now 3-3 in SEC play. A remarkable feat given they had a mere 1 conference win over the last 3 seasons combined. Last year they were outgained on average in SEC play by 179 yards/game. This year they are only getting outgained by 25 yards/game. 

You have to give credit for the turnaround to first year head coach Sam Pittman, as well as transfer quarterback Feleipe Franks. In 6 starts, Franks has completed 67% of his attempts for 1,428 yards with a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Last year in 12 games, Arkansas quarterbacks completed just 49.6% of their attempts for 2,315 yards with a 14-15 TD-INT ratio!

I think Franks and that offense could expose a Florida defense that has been gashed a few times already this season. 

As for the Razorbacks defense, it's kind of built for Florida's high-powered pas attack. Arkansas is only giving up 222 passing yards/game and even more impressive just 6.0 yards/attempt, which is a full 1.2 yards under what their opponents average. Give me the Razorbacks +18! 

50* SMU/TULSA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -2) 

Not only do I love Tulsa in this game, but this matchup falls into one of my favorite betting situations for college football. We got an unranked Tulsa team listed as the favorite against a ranked SMU (No. 19) team.

The public loves to back good teams, so no shocker they love to bet ranked teams. They simply won't be able to help themselves when it comes to backing SMU in this game. All they see is the No. 19 team needing to win outright against an unranked opponent. Right now over 60% of the action is on the Mustangs. 

While Tulsa has only been able to play 4 games, they are 3-1 with their only loss being a mere 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State. A game they could have easily won outright. Their very next game after that loss they went on the road and beat UCF 34-26 as a 20.5 point dog. 

What's crazy about Tulsa is their defense has been way better than expected. Golden Hurricane are giving up just 373 yards/game and 4.9 yards/play. Note that's against teams who are averaging 447 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I know this SMU offense is really good behind former Texas quarterback Shane Buechele, but this is not the same explosive offense that we saw start the year, as they have lost an elite playmaker at wide receiver in Reggie Roberson Jr. 

His absence hasn't been felt a ton against most teams, but we did see Buechele and the Mustangs mange just 13 points and 215 passing yards at Cincinnati. Now I know the Bearcats' defense is really good and much better than Tulsa's, but I think it gives us hope with how well the Hurricanes have defended the pass this year. Give me Tulsa -2! 

50* NORTHWESTERN/PURDUE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -3) 

I will gladly lay a field goal with Northwestern on the road against Purdue. Both these teams are undefeated. The Wildcats are sitting at 3-0, while the Boilermakers are 2-0. I think it has them getting a little too much respect in a game where they are going to need to play perfect just to make a game of it. 

Purdue would be 2-1 if last week's game against Wisconsin wasn't cancelled because of Covid. They could have also lost their opener at home against Iowa, which they trailed 20-14 in the 4th quarter. What's even more concerning is in their other win, they barely squeaked by a bad Illinois team 31-24 and were actually outgained by the Illini 472 to 456. 

I not only think the Boilermakers offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against one of the Big Ten's best defenses in Northwestern, but I think their defense, which is giving up 466 ypg and 6.1 yards/play will also struggle. Give me the Wildcats -3! 

40* NOTRE DAME/BOSTON COLLEGE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (BC +14) 

I really like Boston College catching two touchdowns against Notre Dame. The Eagles have been better than expected and a big reason for that is first year starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. 

BC's passing attack hasn't been this good since Matt Ryan was in town. He had the Eagles on the verge of a huge upset a couple weeks back against Clemson. While he only threw for 204 yards, he threw had 2 TDs and 0 picks. He also did it with the offense unable to establish any kind of running game. 

This game is all about Jurkovec, as he got tired of sitting behind Ian Book at Notre Dame and transferred from the program after last season. There's nothing this kind wants more than to show his old team they made a mistake letting him walk out the door. 

40* WAKE FOREST/N CAROLINA NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Wake Forest +14) 

Give me the Demon Deacons as a two touchdown dog against the Tar Heels. I think Mac Brown has the potential to do some big things going forward with this North Carolina program. I just wonder if people didn't get a little too high on this team a little too early in the process. This is still just year two under Brown. He's got another year or two before he's got a roster made up of only his recruits. 

They are off to a decent 5-2 start, but 4 of those wins have come against the likes of Syracuse, BC, NC State and Duke. The only real quality win was at home against Va Tech and they gave up 45 in the process. Hokies were also still dealing with Covid at that time. 

We have also seen UNC lose to teams they shouldn't. FSU beat them 31-28 as a 13.5-point dog and Virginia knocked them off 44-41 as a 8-point dog. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't be favored at home against Wake Forest, but two touchdowns? This is not a bad Demon Deacons team. They are 4-2 with a 3-point loss at NC State (before they lost their QB) and a mere 37-13 loss at home to Clemson (pretty good when you consider what Clemson does to most other ACC teams). 

They come into this game having won and covered in 4 straight games, as no one wants to give this team any respect. I love that head coach Dave Clawson can continue to play that card in this one. Give me Wake Forest +14! 

40* INDIANA/MICHIGAN ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Michigan St +7.5)

I'm going to take the Michigan State Spartans +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Indiana Hoosiers. I just think this line has been inflated quite a bit after what took place last week with Indiana destroying Michigan 38-21 as a 3.5-point dog, while Michigan State got annihilated on the road 49-7 by an Iowa team that had started out 0-2. 

Props to Indiana for starting out 3-0, but I just don't think this is the 10th best team in the country. For starters, they had no business beating Penn State in their opener, as the Nittany Lions held a 488 to 217 edge in total yards. They then beat an improved Rutgers team on the road before crushing what has turned out to be a very overrated Michigan team. 

The same Michigan team that Michigan State went on the road an upset 27-24 as a 21.5-point underdog. For a team that didn't come into the season thinking Big Ten title, there's not a game on the schedule they wanted to win more than that game against Michigan. I'm pissed at myself for not seeing that and taking the Hawkeyes last week. There was just little to no chance the Spartans were going to play well in that game. 

Good thing is the victory hangovers usually are just a 1-week deal and that should definitely be the case here with the No. 10 ranked team in the country coming into your house. 

Going back to Indiana for a minute. I think there's a lot of red flags with the Hoosiers right now. Indiana is 27th in the country averaging 37.0 ppg, but are a mere 102nd in total offense at just 339 yards/game. They are only averaging 4.7 yards/play. They have shown no threat of a running game so far with just 89 yards/game and 2.6 yards/rush. They are actually getting outgained by 25.0 ypg. 

Michigan State actually has better offensive averages with 368 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, yet they are only averaging a mere 20.3 ppg. Spartans are also getting outgained on average in Big Ten play, but only by 9.7 ypg. 

Lastly, this is not a good spot for the Hoosiers. Not only are they coming off a massive home win over Michigan, but their biggest game of the season is looming next week in Columbus as they travel to take on Ohio State. A game that if Indiana were to win would put them in the drivers seat to shock everyone and win the Big Ten East. 

I just think it's going to be really hard for Indiana to show up with the right kind of mindset here to cover this spread and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans wound up winning this game outright. 

40* MIAMI/VA TECH NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -1.5) 

This is one of those plays that you don't have to do a lot of research to get to the selection. This is where you just look at the line and trust the process. 

In this game we have No. 9 Miami as an underdog against an unranked Virginia Tech team. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a team that is ranked in the Top 25, it's nearly automatic that you take the favorite. 

Note this is not something I just do blindly. For example, last week Va Tech was -14 vs No. 25 Liberty and I did not play it. 

Just this season if you took the unranked favorite vs the ranked dog, you would be 58-40-2. That's an exceptional 59% win rate. 

As for the actual game, I like that Va Tech is coming off an upset loss. It's going to ensure that the Hokies are 100% locked in for this game. Not only that, but this is a good Va Tech team that can really run the ball. Khalil Herbert is one of the best backs in the country. He's already got 803 yards and is averaging a ridiculous 8.4 yards/carry on 96 attempts. They also got a QB that can burn you. Hendon Hooker has 515 yards and 8 TDs with a 6.3 average/carry. Note Hooker missed 2.5 games. 

Miami's got a good but not great run defense. Hurricanes are giving up 4.1 yards/carry and we have seen them struggle, giving up over 200 yards to both Louisville and Clemson, as well as 185 against Virginia. Give me the Hokies -1.5! 

50* E MICH/BALL ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ball State -8) 

I got no problem here laying single-digits with Ball State at home against Eastern Michigan. There's value here with the Cardinals due to how last week's games played out. Ball State wound up losing 31-38 at Miami,OH, despite outgaining the RedHawks 478 to 422. E Michigan on the other hand covered as a 5.5-point dog in a 23-27 loss at Kent State, but that was more of the Flashes not playing up to their potential. 

I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Ball State is going to score. The Cardinals have one of the better QBs in the conference in senior Drew Plitt, who threw for 309 yards against the RedHawks. This is one of the better offenses in the conference. 

On the flip side of the ball, Eastern Michigan's offensive line was dominated in their first game by Kent State's front. The Flashes racked up 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Against a much better offense, Ball State had 3 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. You have to believe there's going to be a lot of negative plays for the Eagles, which should allow Ball State's defense to get off the field and create that separation needed to cover this number. Give me the Cardinals -8! 

50* KENT ST/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -20.5) 

I will gladly lay less than 3 touchdowns with Kent State against this Bowling Green team. Akron is without question the worst team in the MAC, but I don't think the Falcons are far behind the Zips. There's such a big gap between the those two and the next best team that I think we can sometimes find value going against them. 

I love this Kent State team. Not only do they got a star in the making in 34-year-old head coach (youngest in FBS) Sean Lewis, but they are loaded with talent. They got the best QB in the conference in Dustin Crum and while everyone is debating between Miami and Buffalo as the best team in the MAC East, it just might be this Kent State team. 

The Flashes didn't play well in their opener, but found a way to hold on for a 27-23 win over Eastern Michigan. Listening to the post game press conferences, it was clear they were not happy with how they played. They expected more out of themselves. 

I got a feeling Kent State is out to make a statement tonight. That could be bad news for Bowling Green. Last year the Flashes whooped up on the Falcons 62-10, accumulating 750 total yards with exactly 375 passing and rushing. 

I don't know how Bowling Green is going to be able to score to keep pace. Falcons starting quarterback Matt McDonald was just 8 of 30 for 128 yards against Toledo. BG clearly lacks a passing attack. That's a big problem against this Kent State defensive front Flashes limited E Mich to just 61 rushing yards on 32 attempts. They recorded 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Give me Kent State -20.5! 

50* SAINTS/BUCS NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bucs -4) 

I love Tom Brady and the Bucs at this price. I don't know how you can bet against Tampa Bay in this spot. How many prime time home games did Brady ever let New England lose, especially in the 2nd half of the season? 

Like it or not the Bucs have assembled quite the super team in the NFC and will be debuting Antonio Brown this week. If Brown can just shut up and play football, this could be quite the combo in TB. While it make take a game or two for Brown to get up to speed, keep in mind he does have some built up chemistry with Brown from his brief stint with the Pats last year. 

I know New Orleans is getting back their star wide out in Michael Thomas, but I'm just not convinced he's going to fix this offense. Brees just doesn't have the arm strength to threat defenses with the deep pass. I think it could be a recipe for disaster against a Bucs defense that likes to play downhill. We all saw what this defense did when it was locked in against Rodgers and the Packers a few weeks ago. 

I simply trust the Bucs offense a lot more to move the ball and put up points in this one. Brady and Tampa Bay get their revenge from an earlier loss at New Orleans (Week 1 and Brady played bad). Give me the Bucs -4! 

40* RAIDERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers PK) 

While I was happy the Chargers collapsed in last week's shocking 30-31 loss to the Broncos (I had Denver +3), I think it has Los Angeles a bit undervalued here at home against the Raiders. I don't know if it's because the Raiders are now in Las Vegas, but the public really seems to love this team. 

Coming off a 16-6 win in nearly the same role last week at Cleveland, the public is all over the Raiders here at basically a pick'em on the road against a division rival. I just don't see what people love about this team. 

Raiders got a decent offense, but I would take Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense over them. Raiders are averaging 379 yards/game and 5.9 yards/play. Good, but LA is averaging 417 ypg and 6 yards/play. 

Defensively Las Vegas is a clear step behind. The Raiders are giving up 29.0 ppg, 378 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. They are also giving up 140 rushing yards/game and 5.1 yards/carry on the road this year. I just think LA is the better team in this one. Give me the Chargers PK! 

40* TEXANS/JAGUARS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -6.5) 

As difficult as it may be to lay almost a touchdown on the road with a team that is sitting at 1-6 going into Week 9, I can't help myself but to play the Texans on Sunday. 

I know the chances are slim but I guarantee you this Texans team still believes they can get back into the playoff race. When you look at the schedule, it's not all that crazy. Houston's last 9 games are @ Jags, @ Browns, vs Pats, @ Lions, vs Colts, @ Bears, @ Colts, vs Bengals and vs Texans. They might be favored in as many as 6 of those and all 9 are winnable. 

While the Texans are holding onto what little hope they have, the Jaguars are starting to look ahead to the future. With Gardner Minshew out of the lineup with a thumb injury, Jacksonville is turning to 6th round rookie Jake Luton to see what he's got. Note veteran Mike Glennon has been the backup in every game up this point and was just passed over. 

I not only think Luton is behind the 8-ball, as he's a guy that probably really would have benefited from preseason games. I also wonder if Jacksonville isn't trying to lose while making it appear they are playing to win. There's no bath back to the postseason for this team, especially with Minshew sidelined. 

Houston already beat the Jags 30-14 at home early this season and there was nothing fluky about that result. I'm confident they can go into Jacksonville and win by at least 7. Give me the Texans -6.5! 

40* SEAHAWKS/BILLS NFL NO-BRAINER (Seahawks -2.5) 

I'm going to take the Seattle Seahawks -2.5 on the road against the Buffalo Bills. I know this is going to be a big public play and small road favorites have a way of coming up short in the NFL, but I just can't help myself. 

I'm just not a believer in this Bills team. I especially don't think they are as good as their 6-2 record, which is currently tied with GB and TB for the 3rd best record in the league. No bigger reason screams that Buffalo record is not all it seems than the fact that 2 of their 6 wins are against the Jets. And let's not overlook that while they won both, they unlike almost every other team struggled to be the Jets in both meetings. 

They have 3 more wins by a field goal or less. One of those being last week's win over the Patriots. A win is a win, but if Cam Newton doesn't fumble late in the 4th quarter, that game at worst goes to OT, as NE was well within field goal range. They were on the 19 with 40 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts in their pocket. 

I get the Bills hadn't beat the Pats at home since 2011 and that's a huge win for them in regards to winning the division, but let's not just  overlook how bad the Patriots were playing going into that game. 

The big thing that stands out to me is the defense just can't stop the run. They are giving up 134 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry. I know the run game isn't exactly Seattle's strength, but if you can't stop the run, it makes it near impossible to stop Russell Wilson. 

Lastly and the biggest reason I'm willing to roll the dice with Seattle is I think this team is on the verge of turning the corner on the defensive side of the ball.  We definitely saw some flashes on that side in last week's game against the 49ers. San Francisco ended up scoring 27, but the 49ers only had 7 points with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

This week Seattle's defense will be adding in defensive end Carlos Dunlap, who they made a trade for prior to the 49ers came, but because of covid rules had to sit out that game. They also will be getting back star safety Jamal Adams from injury and it's expected that Damon "Snacks" Harrison will be making his debut after spending the last 3 weeks on the practice squad getting back into game shape. 

This team has gone 6-1 with a defense that has been performing at the bottom of the league. If they make any kind of significant improvement on that side of the ball, they might just be the team to beat with that offense. Either way, give me the Seahawks -2.5 on Sunday! 

40* LIONS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -4) 

I'm going to jump on the Minnesota bandwagon, as it feels like the Vikings are playing much closer to what we expected to start the year and not what their 2-5 record would lead you to believe. 

I was really impressed with last week's win at Green Bay, as that was one I didn't see coming. I think that win could be a turning point. Usually if you start 2-5 you are dead in the water. I don't know that's the case. With 7 teams (may go to 8) making the playoffs this year, more teams have a shot. 

Also the Vikings have to believe they can get back to .500 before the stretch run. After hosting Detroit, they are @ Chicago, before 3 more home games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. It's not out of the question this team is 7-5 or 6-6 going into their Week 14 showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

Dalvin Cook did it all for that offense against the Packers and when he's going good, this is a much stronger team. Seeing how the Lions are giving up 130 rushing yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, this should be another big week for Cook. 

The Lions are also just not a very good team. Stafford is questionable with Covid and they got all kinds of guys showing up on the injury report this week. Minnesota's been hit hard with injuries as well, especially on defense, but most of those came early. They clearly have made some improvements, as they gave up 43 points and over 500 yards to Green Bay back in Week 1. Give me the Vikings -4! 

40* GIANTS/REDSKINS NFL CASH COW (Football Team -2.5) 

I just feel like this is way too much value here with Washington laying less than a field goal at home against the Giants. This is all about the spot for me, which I feel heavily favors the home team. 

Washington is coming off their bye week, one in which they went into off a 25-3 blowout win over rival Dallas, which snapped a 5-game skid. Most are going to write off that win over the Cowboys and I don't blame them, but I still think it's huge that they went into their bye with a positive result. 

I believe it will carry over to a big effort against a division rival, one they nearly beat on the road a few weeks back, losing 19-20. Washington went for 2 instead of kicking the extra point after scoring a late TD. They also outgained the Giants 337 to 240. 

While Washington has had extra time to prepare, New York is playing on short rest after their big showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday Night Football. Giants were competitive in a 23-25 loss as a 13-point dog and I think people are using the logic that if NY can play TB tough, they can easily beat Washington. 

I just don't know if that's a solid way of looking at it. The Giants aren't playing for anything but pride in 2020. You think they are going to have the same level of intensity on the road against a bad team they already beat as they had against Brady and the Bucs? I don't think so, and coming off that big game only makes it more likely they fall flat on their face in this one. Give me the Redskins -2.5! 

50* RAVENS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -2)

I absolutely love Baltimore in this spot. Everyone is down on the Ravens right now. This team has went from AFC favorite to many people's third best option behind KC and Pittsburgh. I know some key guys are out, but this is a deep and talented roster. This is the team I want to be backing with their backs against the wall. 

I know Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in some of their losses, but let's not overlook the fact that they outgained the Steelers last week 457 to 221. If they don't turn it over 4 times, they win that game going away. Keep in mind Baltimore only had 5 turnovers all season before that game. 

No disrespect to the Colts, who I was on last week and have played a lot early on, but I just don't think home field is going to be enough for them to beat the Ravens in this spot. Indy was on the other end of a misleading scoreboard. Not saying Colts shouldn't have won, but they won by 20 despite only outgaining the Lions 366 to 326. 

I just don't think Indy as good as their 5-2 record. Their wins are against the Vikings (early on), Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. The only one of those teams with a winning record is Chicago, who is 5-3 with all 5 wins decided by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Ravens -2! 

40* WASHINGTON ST/OREGON ST NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Oregon St -1.5) 

I will gladly take Oregon State at home at basically a pick'em against Washington State. I think these are two programs headed in different directions in 2020. The Beavers are now in year 3 under head coach Jonathan Smith. 

He took over a team that went just 1-11 and was off 4 straight losing seasons. They went just 2-12 in his first year, but improved to 5-7 last year with a 4-5 mark in league play (only had 6 conference wins over the previous 5 seasons). 

They lose some big pieces on offense, but this offense has performed well under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren and have some talent to work with. They also have 9 starters back from a defense that made massive improvements last year. While they gave up 32.5 ppg and 446 ypg, they allowed 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg the year before. 

As for Washington State, they begin a new era after head coach Mike Leach left to take over at Mississippi State. They also lost their stud QB in Anthony Gordon, who threw for 48 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards. I just don't trust the plug-and-play approach that has worked so well without Leach and a new offense. 

They are also got a new DC who wants to play a more physical style when all the guys that were recruited were small and fast guys. I just think they are going to struggle on both sides of the ball,especially early on. Give me Oregon State -1.5! 

40* STANFORD/OREGON NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Stanford +10.5) 

I'm going to take the Stanford Cardinal +10.5 on the road against the No. 12 ranked Oregon Ducks. This is the first game for both teams, as the Pac-12 finally gets their 2020 season started. 

That's important to note, as this line feels like a big overreaction to last year, which saw Oregon go 12-2 and just miss out on the playoffs, while Stanford had one of it's worst season in decades with a record of 4-8. 

I'm going to start with Oregon. I just don't think this year's Ducks team is going to be anything close to last year. They lost one of the best players in the country in quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for nearly 3,500 yards with a 32-6 TD-INT ratio. A loss that I feel has to be magnified even more when you look at how well Herbert is playing in the NFL. He's right there with Joe Burrow for rookie of the year. I just don't see anyway this offense mirrors anything to the unit that put up 35.4 ppg and 433 ypg.

And it's not just the loss of Herbert that has me thinking this. Oregon lost their left tackle, who many have rated as the best LT prospect for next year's draft. He was the only starter coming back on the o-line. I know the Ducks recruit well, but an inexperienced line and raw signal caller is usually a recipe for disaster. 

Also with starting corner Thomas Graham and safety Brady Breeze opting out, Oregon goes from having 4 of their top 6 tacklers back to only 2. Note one of the other guys they lost was All-American linebacker and leading tackler Troy Dye. 

As for Stanford, I'm putting my trust in David Shaw and his staff to get this team back to the level it was prior to last year's dip. Injuries played a massive role to them underperforming. They had to go thru 3 different starting QBs and had 3 true freshmen starting on the o-line. 

I like what they have in junior quarterback Davis Mills, but even more so the fact that they got 4 starters back on the 0-line. I also think we might see a dynamic duo emerge at running back with sophomore Austin Jones and true freshman EJ Smith. Both very highly touted of HS and for those that don't know, EJ is the son of NFL Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. 

The defense doesn't figure to be elite like it had been for such a long time, but with 7 starters back and so many young guys getting experience last year because of injuries, this unit should be a much better version than last year's. Give me Stanford +10.5 

*Still recommend a play on the Cardinal at +7.5 or better. 

50* BAYLOR/ISU *BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Iowa State -13.5)

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Iowa State at home against Baylor. I've faded the Bears each of the last 3 weeks with success. I just don't think people realize just how bad this Baylor team is. 

The Bears only win this season came in their opener against Kansas, which they won rather convincingly 47-14. However, they only outgained the Jayhawks 352 to 328. They are better than Kansas, but I also think they are closer to Kansas in terms of talent than they are the rest of the Big 12. 

The biggest thing with Baylor is their offense is anemic. They are averaging 26.8 ppg, but only 300 ypg and that's against defenses that on average give up 374 ypg. In their last 3 games combined, they have scored a mere 24 points over the 1st three quarters of the game. 

Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the conference and we can count on the Cyclones being locked in the rest of the way. ISU wins out and they are going to be in the Big 12 title game. I wouldn't be shocked here at all if Baylor scores 10 or fewer. 

Iowa State averages 32.0 ppg and are coming in confident on offense after scoring 52 points and racking up 552 yards in a win over Kansas. If they score just 30 here they should cover with ease. Give me the Cyclones -13.5! 

40* PITT/FLORIDA ST NCAAF CASH COW (Pittsburgh +2.5) 

I was surprised to see the public backing Florida State as heavily as they are (close to 60% action on Seminoles), but that only makes me like Pittsburgh that much more in this one. I think people are holding on to FSU's big 31-28 upset win at home over then No. 5 North Carolina. 

If the Seminoles were the real deal, they wouldn't have followed up that win with a 48-16 loss to Louisville. A game they were only a 5.5-point dog in. Sophomore quarterback Jordan Travis has given this team some life since replacing James Blackman, but he's really a running back with a decent arm at quarterback. He's only completed 50.5% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. 

I just think for the Seminoles offense to have success they have to be able to run the ball (241 rushing yards vs UNC). That's the problem. Pitt is a very strong defensive team that is built to stop the run. Panthers are allowing just 69 yards/game and 2.0 yards/carry vs the run. They are giving up just 298 yards/game and 4.4 yards/play. 

Just to put that in comparison, Florida State gives up 209 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry vs the run and allow 490 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play. I know the Pitt offense is bad, but I feel like they are the only offense that will be able to move the ball. Give me the Panthers +2.5! 

50* FLORIDA/GEORGIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia -3) 

I love the value here with Georgia laying only a field goal against the Gators. I just think the Bulldogs are an elite team and are still a bit undervalued from that ugly loss to Alabama. One in which they didn't follow up well, beating Kentucky by a final of just 14-3 as a 17-point favorite. That was on the road and a bad spot with this massive game on deck. 

For me it's pretty simple. I think Georgia's defense is good enough to keep Florida's offense in check. Gators have lit up the scoreboard, but they also haven't played the toughest defenses to this point. Keep in mind Florida put up big points in most of their games last year and only managed 17 points in a 24-17 loss to Georgia. 

On the other side of the ball, I look for the Bulldogs to be able to move the ball against a Florida defense that has not been good. Gators are giving up 433 yards/game and 5.8 yards/play. That's with them only giving up 248 yards last week to Missouri. We saw them give up 500+ to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really think this line should be closer to a TD. Give me the Bulldogs -3! 

50* ARIZONA ST/ USC NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (USC -10.5) 

I think most people look at this line and immediately look to taking the points with Arizona State and that's definitely been the case so far, as close to 65% of the action is on the Sun Devils. Any time the public is on a dog in a big game, I love to go the other way and that's exactly what I'll do here. 

What people love about the points and Arizona State is they have a big talent at quarterback in Jayden Daniels coming back. What they overlook is an offense that lost star running back Eno Benjamin and two of their top 3 wide outs including a big time talent in Brandon Aiyuk. Those 3 players (including Benjamin) accounted for 152 of Daniels 205 completions last year.

Sun Devils also lost 3 starters on the o-line and while new defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis is a big name, he's transforming the D from a 3 man front to a 4 man front. 

I just don't see Arizona State keeping pace offensively with what is going to be one of the most explosive offenses in the country. When JT Daniels got hurt last year, it opened the door for true freshman Kedon Slovis and in 11 starts he threw for 3,500 yards with 30 TDs to 9 interceptions. 

USC does lose their top wide out in Pittman, but get basically the rest of the offense back. They also add in red-shirt freshman wide out Bru McCoy, who was the #1 rated WR in his class out of high school. Give me the Trojans -10.5! 

50* MIAMI/NC STATE NCAAF *ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH* (NC State +11)

I really like the value we are getting with NC State as a double-digit home dog against Miami. No one is giving the Wolfpack any shot in this game and I think it makes them a dangerous underdog at home in a prime time game. 

If you have followed this Miami team at all in recent years, they have a way of losing these games where they are favored to win easily. Just last year they lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, 20-point favorite to Georgia Tech and 20-point favorite to FIU. The first of those two coming on their own turf. 

It would not shock me at all if they lost this game. I get Miami's 5-1, but their best wins are against the likes of Louisville, FSU, Pittsburgh and Virginia. All of those teams currently have losing records. 

NC State is 4-2 and while they aren't the same team they were before losing starting quarterback Devin Leary to a season ending injury, I think they could be alright. While junior Bailey Hockman figures to start, I think we could see more of true freshman Ben Finley, who is the younger brother of former great NC State quarterback Ryan Finley. 

Ben Finley got in their blowout loss against UNC and impressed and I expect him to play a good amount in this game. 

I also have confidence that we will see a better NC State defense in this one. Wolf Pack didn't tackle well at all (missed 27 tackles) against UNC. The defense took ownership of that poor effort and I think we see a defense that is flying around the field in this one. 

I also think it's big getting two weeks to prepare for this game, as it allows them to prepare better for the dual threat ability of Miami quarterback D'Erig King. 

Also, you want to fade Miami in this spot. Hurricanes are 0-7 ATS last 7 times they played a game coming off a home conference win. They are also 0-6 ATS last 6 times coming off a bye. Give me the WolfPack +11! 

40* UTAH ST/NEVADA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Nevada -15) 

I'm going to lay the points with the Wolf Pack at home against Utah State on Thursday night. For me it's the simple fact that I don't see any way this Aggies offense can score enough to keep this close. 

Utah State's offense was expected to take a step back this year after losing a big time talent in QB Jordan Love. It looks like they may have fallen off a cliff offensively. Aggies only managed 13 points and 203 yards of total offense in a 42-13 loss at Boise State to open the year. That same Boise State defense just gave up 30 points and 484 yards last week to Air Force. The same Falcons offense that only managed 298 in their opener against San Jose State. 

In last week's game against San Diego State they totaled just 7 points and 215 total yards. Their only score coming on a Hail Mary type of play at the end of the 1st half. 

Defensively the Aggies gave up 42 points and 450 yards to the Broncos and 38 points aon 570 yards to the Aztecs. Now they face one of the most potent offenses in the MWC in Nevada. One that has a talented sophomore quarterback in Carson Strong, who threw for 420 yards and 4 scores against a good Wyoming defense in their opener and had another 350 yards and 2 scores last week at UNLV. Give me the Wolf Pack -15! 

50* E MICH/KENT ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -6) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Golden Flashes laying less than a touchdown at home against Eastern Michigan. Kent State is a program on the rise under third year head coach Sean Lewis, who is the youngest HC at the collegiate level at just 34-years-old. 

When he took over in 2018 this team had 5 straight seasons with 4 or fewer wins. The Golden Flashes did go just 2-10 in his first year on the job, but improved to 7-6 last year. Their 5 conference wins were half what they had the previous 6 years (10). 

This year's team is even stronger. Kent State brings back 13 starters, including the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum. Last year Crum completed 69% of his attempts with a 20-2 TD-INT ratio. He also led the team in rushing with 707 yards and 6 scores. 

Note that in last year's 7-6 finish, 3 of their 6 losses were on the road against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Their 3 conferences losses were all by 7 or fewer. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the least experienced teams not just in the MAC, but the country. On offense they lose their top RB, WR and dual threat QB Mike Glass. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a unit that gave up 30.6 ppg and 430 ypg. 

I just don't think we are still getting value with Kent State and not a surprise as these teams that go from being awful to great tend to hold their value a little longer. Give me the Golden Flashes -6! 

40* BUCS/GIANTS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -12) 

I don't love laying big numbers like this, but I just can't get myself to take the Giants in this game. I just don't see how New York is going to move the football against this Bucs defense. In their last 3 games the Giants are averaging a respectable 25 ppg, but those 3 have come against their 3 division rivals. In the 4 games they have played outside the division, they are averaging a mere 11.8 ppg. 

I think a lot of attention with the Bucs falls on Tom Brady and the offense, but the defense has really caught my eye. Bucs are really strong up front. You can forget about running on this team. Tampa Bay is allowing a league low 66.0 rushing yards/game. A full 14 yards better than the next best team in the Colts, who give up 80 ypg and 24 ahead of No. 3 New Orleans who allows 91 ypg. 

They aren't as good against the pass, but still very formidable. They have held 4 of their 7 opponents under 210 yards passing. They are also T-3rd in the league with 25 sacks. That pass rush should have a field day here against a bad Giants offensive line. They really make opposing QBs play fast and if you have watched Daniel Jones that's not his strength. 

Even if Brady and the Bucs offense struggles some, which I don't think it will, they should have such great field position all night that winning here by two touchdowns should be no problem. Give me Tampa Bay -12! 

40* SAINTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +4.5) 

I played against the Bears on MNF and cashed relatively easy on the Rams -6. I just didn't love that spot at all for Chicago. It's the exact opposite this week. I'll take the 4.5-points with the Bears at home. 

I know the offense leaves a lot to be desired, but this Chicago defense is the real deal and I expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. Even if Michael Thomas plays, I still like the Bears to make it difficult on Drew Brees. 

One thing to note with the Saints. This will be their first game this season outdoors. Each of their first 6 have been in a dome, with 4 of the 6 at home. 

I'm also not so sure the Saints are as good as we thought. I think they caught a break playing the Bucs in Week 1. Their other 3 wins are against the Lions, Chargers and Panthers. All 3 decided by 6 or less. 

I also feel like this is a flat spot for New Orleans, having won 3 straight and having a huge division game on deck at Tampa Bay. Speaking of the Bucs, the Bears responded from their only other loss this year by beating Brady and the Bucs at home as a 3.5-point dog. Very similar spot. Give me Chicago +4.5! 

40* CHARGERS/BRONCOS NFL CASH COW (Broncos +3) 

I think a lot of people are going to look at the Chargers as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Broncos and think they are undervalued. I just don't think that's the case. I've been on LA quite a bit since Herbert took over, but I think the books are making this a little too easy to take them. No one wants to take the Broncos and basically need them to win outright to cover. 

I watched the Chiefs/Broncos game last week and while it was a blowout, that Denver defense really gave Mahomes and that KC offense trouble. Chiefs only had 286 total yards of offense. Mahomes threw just 1 TD pass and it wasn't until the 4th quarter. 

With all the injuries that have been starting to pile up on the offensive line, I think that Denver front is going to get after Herbert and we see him come down to earth a little in this one. 

Broncos are 4-2 ATS this year and have been a dog in every game so far. They could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. 

Denver has thrived in this spot, going 12-3 ATS last 15 at home off a division loss by 10 or more. Not only do they cover, but they are winning by 12.5 ppg (28.2-15.7). Give me the Broncos +3! 

40* RAMS/DOLPHINS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +3.5) 

40* RAIDERS/BROWNS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -2.5) 

I just can't help myself here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Raiders. I just don't know what the books see in this LV team. I get it, they beat the Chiefs, but how much of that was KC not playing their best? I think a lot. 

It's just hard to win in the NFL, especially on the road, when you have a defense as bad as the Raiders. Everyone talks about how bad Dallas' defense is and the Cowboys do rank dead last in the NFL, allowing 34.7 ppg. Las Vegas is right behind them at 32.8 ppg. They are giving up a horrific 6.4 yards/play and have not been able to stop the run or the pass. 

Browns won't have OBJ, but he didn't play much in Cleveland's last game and Mayfield had his best game of the year by far with 297 yards and 5 scores. Rashad Higgins filled in nicely and led the team with 6 catches for 110 yards. 

Big thing here is weather. There's a decent chance of rain with howling winds at close to 25 mph. It's going to be about who can run. Cleveland averages 5.1 yards/carry and will be facing a Raiders D that allows 4.6 ypc. Las Vegas only averages 4.0 yards/carry and Browns allow just 3.8 ypc. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

40* COLTS/LIONS NFL NO-BRAINER (Colts -2.5) 

I think we are getting an exceptional gift here with Indy laying less than a field goal at Detroit. The Colts will be returning from their bye, which means they will have a full two weeks to prepare for a bad Lions team. One that should be 2-4 if not for the Falcons completely botching the end of the game last week. 

I just don't see this Detroit offense being able to do a whole lot against a very good Colts defense. One that will be getting back one of their best players in linebacker Darius Leonard. He's been out the last two games and it's shown. In the two games he missed, Indy allowed 32 points and 385 yards in a loss at Cleveland and then 27 points and 398 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In the 4 games he played, Indy has not allowed more than 270 total yards. 

On the flip side of this, the Colts offense should be able to find some success against a bad Lions defense. Detroit is giving up 27.5 ppg 5.9 yards/play and 380 yards/game. They haven't really been good against the run or the pass. Give me the Colts -2.5! 

50* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) 

I got no problem paying a little extra to get the Ravens down to -3, as I feel really good about them not losing at that price. To me it feels like when Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Chiefs on MNF back in Week 3, people started questioning how good this Ravens team. 

I think that's a mistake. This team has won 3 straight since that loss. The first two weren't close, as they took out Washington 31-17 on the road and then beat the Bengals 27-3 at home. They did only beat the Eagles by 2, 30-28, but that was a very misleading score. Ravens took their foot off the gas in a game they were in complete control of and it nearly cost them. 

Now they are coming out of their bye week and everyone is calling for the Steelers to win this game. Even though Baltimore is the favorite, I think they kind of feel disrespected and are going to treat this more like they are the underdog. I think that makes them a real scary team in this spot. 

I like Pittsburgh, but I just don't know if they are as gooda s people think. Their two best wins are against the Titans and Browns. They have also benefited from getting to play 4 of 6 at home. First time all year they will be on the road in back-to-back weeks. 

I just feel the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Give me Baltimore -3! 

40* OLE MISS/VANDY NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -16.5) 

One of our few losers last week in college football was a really tough break on Ole Miss +3.5 at home against Auburn. Rebels gave up a 58-yard TD pass with 1:11 left to play leading 28-27. If they don't give up the big play, worst case Auburn goes down and wins on a field goal 30-27. 

Those ones always sting a little more, but it's not enough to keep me from firing back with Ole Miss this week at Vanderbilt. I just don't feel like the number here is near enough. Vanderbilt played a surprisingly close game at Texas A&M in their opener, losing 17-12 as a 31.5-point favorite. 

They still only had 250 yards of total offense in that game. After scoring just 7 in each of their next two games, the Commodores have a whopping 26 total points scored in 3 games. They are averaging 3.9 yards/play and that's against teams that give up 6.4 yards/play. The fact that they could only score 7 points and total just 266 yards against LSU at home, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this offense is. 

The defense that was so good against Texas A&M, has given up 41 to both LSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss can score points and are going to be hungry having lost 3 straight. I just don't see Vanderbilt doing anywhere close to enough offensively to keep this respectable. Give me Ole Miss -16.5! 

50* TCU/BAYLOR NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (TCU -2.5) 

I have a feeling I'm going to be betting against Baylor a lot this year. I played against them last week with Texas and the Longhorns won 27-16 as a 8.5-point favorite (wasn't that close). In their previous game I played against them with West Virginia as a 3-point home dog and the Mountaineers won 27-21. 

I'll gladly lay less than a field goal with TCU on the road against the Bears this week. Baylor has one of the most anemic offenses of any Power 5 program. The only reason they are averaging 28.0 ppg instead of 18.0 ppg is because they have already played Kansas. 

They only had 256 total yards in their game against West Virginia and 316 last week against Texas. In both of those games they went into the 4th quarter with 7 or fewer points. 

TCU comes into this one having just got the doors kicked in by Oklahoma at home, losing 33-14 as a mere 7-point dog. Horned Frogs are now just 1-3 on the season, but could easily be 3-1. I think if Duggan plays the entire game and not just the 2nd half, they probably beat ISU at home and the loss against K-State could have also went their way. Outgained the Wildcats 342 to 289 with 20 first downs to 12. 

I just think this TCU team is so much better than their record and should be close to a TD favorite than a field goal. Give me the Horned Frogs -2.5! 

50* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -11) 

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Indiana against the Scarlet Knights. I think a lot of people are going to look at this and be tempted to take Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights did just win 38-27 as a double-digit dog at Michigan State last week. They also see this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers. 

I see it the opposite. I think this is the ultimate sell high on Rutgers off a win against a Michigan State program that is in a full on rebuilding mode and just might be the worst team in the conference. 

I also think because Rutgers just won, that actually makes Indiana less likely to overlook them. Keep in mind this is an Indiana team that believes they can shock the world and win the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying they are right, but they know if they want to be that team, they got to beat bad teams like Rutgers. 

Because it had been so long for Rutgers just winning a game in Big Ten play, I think people ignore the numbers. The Scarlet Knights only had 276 total yards against a Spartans defense that only had 3 starters back. They were outgained by almost 100 yards and benefited a ton from 7 Michigan State turnovers. 

I know the boxscore wasn't great for Indiana in their win over Penn State, but I still think that's a really really good Nittany Lions team. The fact that they didn't put up big numbers and were able to win, speaks to the potential of this team. 

I know Rutgers is improved, but so is Indiana and the Hoosiers beat the Scarlet Knights 35-0 last year with a 557 to 75 edge in total yards. Give me Indiana -11! 

40* KANSAS ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (W Virginia -2.5) 

This is one of those plays you just play no matter what. Any time you have a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, you play the unranked team. I'll do just that with the Mountaineers at home against No. 16 Kansas State. 

I played against West Virginia last week at Texas Tech, as I didn't feel they should be laying points on the road against a pretty equal opponent. We cashed a winner with the Red Raiders, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. WV ended up outgaining Texas Tech 438 to 348. Even though they lost, I came away impressed with the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia has really been strong defensively and I think they can make things really difficult here on a pretty limited K-State offense that is down their starting QB in Skylar Thompson. True freshman Will Howard has decent numbers, but half his attempts came against an awful Kansas defense last week. They were pretty lucky to beat TCU with Howard and no way they pull off that upset in Norman without Thompson. Give me West Virginia -2.5! 

50* HAWAII/WYOMING MWC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Wyoming +2) 

I love the value here with Wyoming as a home dog against Hawaii on Friday. I believe Hawaii is overvalued coming off a 34-19 upset win over Fresno State. At the same time, I think the Cowboys are undervalued off a 34-37 OT loss at Nevada as a 2.5-point favorite. 

There's no shame losing at Nevada. That's one of the most improved teams in the MWC. Wolf Pack probably should have been favored in that one. What I like about Wyoming is they were outplayed and yet still made a game of it. 

This is a very well coached Cowboys team under Craig Bohl and are one of the most experienced teams not just in the conference, but the entire country. When this team is playing well, they are tough to beat at home. Last three times they have finished the season with a winning record they have gone 17-3 at home with a perfect 6-0 mark last year. 

As for Hawaii, I think they are a quality team, but I also feel like they beat up on a bad Fresno State team. Bulldogs also made it easy on them with 4 turnovers (Hawaii +3 turnover margin). Warriors haven't had a winning road record since 2010. I just don't see them pulling off back-to-back road wins. Give me the Cowboys +2! 

40* MINNESOTA/MARYLAND NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Minnesota -19.5) 

I went against Minnesota last week and won easy with Michigan -3, as the Wolverines laid it on the Gophers 49-24. A lot of people liked Minnesota to in that game. I believe seeing them lose like that will have some hesitant to lay this big number. Which is saying something given how bad Maryland looked last week in a 43-3 loss at Northwestern. 

My opinion really didn't change on Minnesota. They are good team with some decent talent, but they were not as good as their 11-3 record last year and it simply had them overvalued against a better team. 

I think the Gophers respond in a big way against the Terps. Minnesota destroyed Maryland 52-10 last year. I would be shocked if they didn't score 40+ in this one. Maryland's defense is clearly lacking talent in the front 7. They let Northwestern rush for 325 yards with 6 different players recording a rush of 10+ yards. 

Their offense wasn't any better. Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa went 14 of 25 for 94 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Maryland also rushed for a mere 64 yards on 21 attempts. This Minnesota defense isn't as good as Northwestern's stop unit, but it's still going to be able to get off the field. 

I just don't think it's asking a lot here for Minnesota to win by 20 or more points. Give me the Gophers -19.5! 

50* COLO ST/FRESNO ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colorado St -1) 

I love the value here with Colorado State at basically a pick'em against Fresno State. While the Mountain West got started up last week, the Rams' game with New Mexico was canceled (had to do with New Mexico covid rate being too high). The Bulldogs were in action and were embarrassed 34-19 at home by Hawaii. Fresno State closed as a 2.5-point favorite in that game. 

The positive for the Bulldogs is they put up 409 yards. The negative was they had 4 turnovers, including 3 picks by new starting QB Jake Haener. Another big negative was the defense, which gave up 552 yards and 6.6 yards/play. Most notably allowing 323 rushing yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Not the debut Fresno fans were hoping for under new head coach Kalen Deboer. 

Colorado State also has a new coach, though it's a more formidable name in Steve Addazio, who spent the last 7 years at BC. I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because of the fact that the Rams only went 4-8 last year. 

They should be greatly improved and note that while they went just 3-5 in MWC play, they were +34 ypg in conference play (Fresno -85 ypg last year). Not only does Colorado State have 15 returning starters, but they have added in several transfers, including 3 offensive linemen from BC, who should all start. They also added Miami transfer Scott Patchan on defense, who should start. 

Former Nebraska signee Patrick O'Brien is back under center for Colorado State. Last year was his first with the team on the field and he started 9 games, completed 62% of his pasess for 2803 yards and 13 scores. Each of his top 5 targets from last year are back. 

I think there's a good chance this game gets ugly in a hurry. Give me Colorado State -1! 

50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5) 

I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play. 

There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow. 

Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize. 

Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5! 

50* BEARS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -5) 

I'm laying it with the Rams at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The public is all over Chicago at this price, as they see a Bears team off back-to-back upset wins against the Bucs and Panthers, facing off against a Rams team that just lost as a favorite at San Francisco and is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Public dogs have a way of falling flat on their face, especially in prime time games. 

I get the Bears are a team built to win ugly with their defense and the offense is in better hands with Nick Foles under center. I just don't think this team is as good as their 5-1 record. Clearly the oddsmakers agree or this line would be much closer to LA -3. 

You definitely have to look at the Rams loss to the 49ers in a different way after what we saw on Sunday with San Fran going into New England and beating a desperate Pats team 33-6. The 49ers are playing out of their minds with the injuries they have been dealt. 

I just wonder if the Rams didn't give them their full attention in that game. Note that the 49ers came into that contest fresh off a 43-17 loss at home to the Dolphins. 

While it's struggled in spurts, I like what this Rams offense has been able to do. They are averaging 6.2 yards/play against teams that only allow 5.7 yards/play. Bears only average 5.0 yards/play vs teams allowing 5.7. Rams defense only giving up 5.2 yards/play, which is better than the 5.4 mark for Chicago. Give me the Rams -5! 

50* 49ERS/PATS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -2.5) 

I think this is an ideal spot to buy low on the Patriots off a shocking upset loss at home to the Broncos and a great to sell high on the 49ers after an upset win at home over the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The big thing you have to keep in mind with the loss to Denver is the Patriots really didn’t get to practice for that game because of Covid. New England is set to practice today and it will be just their 3rd full practice in the month of October.  

I think we are going to see a huge bounce back game for the Patriots on Sunday and a big reason for that is I’m just not buying into this 49ers team being as good as people think. No one was really giving San Fran a shot against the Rams, but I actually like the 49ers in that game. A big reason for that is I didn’t think LA was all that great.

The Rams were 4-1, but those 4 wins were against the 4 NFC East teams. They did lose by just 3 at Buffalo, but they also trailed 28-3 in the 2nd half of that game. I also thought it was concerning that the Rams only scored 20 points against that awful Cowboys defense in Week 1. They also had just 17 points and 240 yards against a bad Giants team.  

Outside if that win, the 49ers only other victories this season are against the Jets and Giants. They lost to a depleted Eagles team at home and two weeks ago were absolutely destroyed at home 43-17 by the Dolphins.  

When I gave out NE on the podcast back in Week 3 against the Raiders, I noted how Belichick was not going to let Las Vegas star tight end Darren Waller beat them. Coming into that game Waller had caught 18 passes for 150 yards. He was a complete non-factor, catching just 2 passes for 9 yards. They are going to do the exact same thing with 49ers tight end George Kittle in this one. 

I also think it’s worth noting that no one knows San Fran quarterback Jimmy G better than Belichick. He’s going to gear up his defense to not only stop Kittle, but also play to the weaknesses of Garoppolo. Give me the Patriots -2.5!  

50* BUCS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -3) 

I loved Tampa Bay at -3 when this line opened. I just think this Bucs team is only getting better and last week's demolition of Rodgers and the Packers certainly suggest that. There's been some Covid issues for Oakland and the line is now -5 at most books. I still love the Bucs at that price. 

I think the Raiders are a fraud right now with a winning record of 3-2. Last time we saw this team in Week 5, they upset the Chiefs 40-32 in KC as a 10-point dog. The defense was torched once again and I just think the offense caught that Chiefs defense in the perfect spot. KC's D was due for a letdown after their early schedule. 

Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense, but this defense is the real deal. The talk after that game against Rodgers and the Packers was not about how good they were, but how they needed to prove it in their game this week against the Raiders.

I just think Tampa Bay is going to win here and win rather convincingly. Play the Bucs -3! 

40* BROWNS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) 

For me I think it’s pretty simple when it comes to handicapping this Cleveland team. All you have to do is ask yourself will they be able to run the football.  

It was 100% the reason I gave out the Steelers last week. I knew it was going to be tough sledding for Baker Mayfield and that offense against an elite Pittsburgh run D. Cleveland managed just 75 rushing yards in that game and only 7 points.  

I look for the ground game to get right back in the swing of things in this game. In their 4-game win streak prior to the loss to the Steelers, they averaged 201 rushing yards/game.  

The Bengals are currently 27th against the run, giving up 142.3 ypg.Not great, but it could be worse. They are T-31st in the league, giving up 5.1 yards/carry. Last week they held the Colts to just 59 yards, but Indy only ran it 15 times. Note that Colts starting RB Johnathan Taylor had 60 yards on 12 attempts, which is exactly 5 yards a pop.Big reason Indy didn’t run it more, is they were down 21-0 basically a quarter into the game.  

The other thing to note with that game against the Colts, is the fact that Cincinnati’s defense let Philip Rivers throw for 371 yards and 3 scores. Rivers hadn’t thrown for more than 245 yards in a game all season and really looked like he was holding that team back. I think that’s a very encouraging sign for Mayfield in this game. 

In that Week 2 meeting between these two teams, Cleveland had 215 rushing yards and Mayfield was 16 of 23 for 219 yards and 2 scores.  

On the other side of the ball, Burrow is going to have to be great just to keep this close, because they aren’t going to be able to run it. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing and the Browns are 4th in the NFL, allowing just 94.0 ypg on the ground. I think Myles Garrett and that Cleveland defense will be able to pin their ears back and go after Burrow, who has already been sacked 24 times in 6 games.  

I just think the Bengals get a little too much love from people because of Burrow. He's really good, but this Cincinnati team is not, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the Browns -3! 

40* MICHIGAN/MINNESOTA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Michigan -3) 

I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Michigan laying just 3-points on the road. It feels like this is the least hyped the Wolverines have been going into a season in the Harbaugh era. It's a little surprising, as it finally appears like they have found an elite QB to guide their offense after getting lackluster play at the position the last 5 years. 

All I hear is praise around Joe Milton and if what is being said holds true, Michigan could be a team to look out for in 2020. I know they lost some guys at wide receiver, but more times than not a good QB will make receivers look good and there's definitely talent at the position. It should also open up more running lanes. 

The other big thing for me, is I think Minnesota comes in way overvalued after finishing 11-2 last year. That was so much more about how easy the schedule was for the Gophers than them being elite. We saw that in their regular season finale, as they lost 38-17 at home to Wisconsin with a trip to the Big Ten title game on the line. 

Last year Minnesota's strength of schedule ranked around 60, while Michigan had one of the 10 toughest schedules in the country. Give me the Wolverines -3! 

50* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech +3.5) 

The fact that this line is close to a pick'em says a lot, as the Red Raiders come in at 1-3, while the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-1. The thing with West Virginia and their 3-1 start is they had a cupcake game to open the season against EKU. Their other two wins are at home against Baylor and Kansas, who look like the two worst teams in the Big 12. 

The only decent team they faced was Oklahoma State and they lost by 14. Note that's a Cowboys team that while undefeated has not looked very good and was without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

Texas Tech's first 3 conference games were at home against Texas (should have won,but lost in OT) and then on the road against K-State and Iowa State. This is going to be the best offense West Virginia has seen by a landslide, especially in terms of quarterback play. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Texas Tech +3.5! 

40* BOSTON COLLEGE/GA TECH NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -4)

I'll lay the short number here with the Eagles at home against the Yellow Jackets. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided loss last week. Georgia Tech was obliterated at home by Clemson 73-7, while BC lost 40-14 at Virginia Tech. 

Thing is the Yellow Jackets 66-point loss was every bit as bad as it looked, and really could have been a lot worse. Clemson had 52-points at the half of that game and outgained Ga Tech by 567 yards. 

BC on the other hand was simply done in by turnovers, as they were -5 in that department against the Hokies. Eagles were only outgained 461 to 435 and had 24 first downs to Va Techs 23. Jurkovec is arguably the best QB in the country that not everyone knows about. He threw for 345 yards and 2 scores last week and ranks 5th in the country in passing in 2020 with 1,526 yards. 

Georgia Tech has faced two QBs ahead of Jurkovec in UCF's Gabriel and Clemson's Lawrence. Both times they gave up over 400 passing yards. I just don't think a turnover prone Yellow Jackets offense will be able to keep pace in this one. Give me Boston College -4! 

40* BAYLOR/TEXAS NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -8.5) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on Texas. The Longhorns come into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking losses. First it was a 31-33 defeat at TCU, where Texas had 1st and Goal with 2.5 mins to play and proceeded to fumble to all but end the game. In their next game they fell 45-53 in 4 OT against rival Oklahoma.  

The Longhorns have went from being ranked inside the Top 10 to not even ranked at all.  It’s like everyone has forgot about this team. Even the betting public wants nothing to do with them, as close to 70% of the early action has been on Baylor. Some of that has to do with the line, but the books aren’t stupid. I believe they set a big number here knowing the Bears are going to have a hard time keeping this close.  

I just don’t know what the public sees in this Baylor team. The Bears have only played two games because of covid. They opened with a 47-14 win over Kansas and then lost in 2OT 21-27 at West Virginia.  

Their 47-14 blowout win over the Jayhawks looks a lot like what others are doing against Kansas, but that was a misleading score. Baylor had 2 kickoff return TDs, a safety and scored a garbage TD up 40-14 in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter.  What really stands out to me is they only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. In the Jayhawks two other conference games, they were outgained 593 to 193 by Oklahoma State and 544 to 157 by West Virginia.  

Also, they were lucky to get to OT in their loss to the Mountaineers. They trailed 14-7 with 1:51 to play in the 4th quarter. At that time they only had 172 yards of total offense. Baylor caught a big break in that late scoring drive to force OT. Baylor would have had 4th and 10, but an unnecessary roughness penalty gave them a 1st down.

I just don’t think the Bears are going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Texas is going to score. Longhorns are averaging 49.5 ppg and 495 ypg. Note that’s come against opponents that are only giving up on average 30.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Give me Texas -8.5.  

40* IOWA/PURDUE NCAAF DOMINATION (Iowa -3) 

I like the price here with the Hawkeyes as a slim 3-point road favorite against Purdue. The Boilermakers will be without head coach Jeff Brohm because of Covid and I just think that's a big hurdle for them to overcome against an Iowa team that I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. 

The big question mark with Iowa is they go from a 3-year starter to an unknown at quarterback. Thing is, Iowa has what looks to be one of the better o-lines in the Big Ten and have great talent back at the skill positions. They are also rock solid on defense under Ferentz. Hawkeyes haven't allowed more than 20.4 ppg in each of the last 5 years. 

The other big thing here is the lack of fans. Only family members are being allowed to attend Big Ten games. I think it has the road teams showing some value, as this would be a much different handicap if it was going to be sold out Ross-Ade Stadium. Iowa is the better team on both sides. Give me the Hawkeyes -3! 

50* HOUSTON/NAVY NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston -14) 

I absolutely love Houston as a mere 14-point favorite against Navy. I think we are getting a great price on the Cougars after last week's 26-43 loss at home to BYU. The end result was not great, but they did lead No. 14 BYU 26-14 late in the 3rd quarter. That's a really good Cougars team that has a future NFL QB in Zach Wilson running their offense. 

I just think the talent gap between Houston and Navy is substantial and I would argue the Cougars are one of the better teams not ranked in the Top 25 right now. 

Navy has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4, but could easily be 0-5 both SU and ATS. They beat Tulane 27-24 as a 5.5-point dog despite trailing 24-0 at the half. They squeaked out a 31-29 win over Temple as a 3.5-poing dog and defeated ECU 27-23 as a 3-point favorite. This team has also lost 55-3 to BYU (which I think is a great indicator for Houston) and 40-7 to Air Force. 

Key here is Houston has the guys up front to stop this Navy rushing attack in its tracks and should be able to score at will offensively, as the Midshipmen are giving up a ridiculous 274 yards/game and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run this year. Navy also can't play from behind, so the margin should only grow as this one goes on. Give me the Cougars -14! 

40* GA SOUTHERN/C CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Coastal Carolina -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chanticleers laying less than a touchdown at home against Georgia Southern. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this Coastal Carolina team in their last two games, which saw them knock off two of the top teams in the Sun Belt in Arkansas State and Louisiana. 

The Chanticleers are absolutely dominating the time of possession and should be able to do just that against the Eagles. Don't be fooled by Georgia Southern's defense coming in only giving up 19.0 ppg, as their opponents so far on average are only scoring 15.5 ppg. 

A lot of people want to point to how they almost won on the road against Louisiana, but I'm not as sold on the Ragin' Cajuns as others. The game I focus more on is the Eagles mere 27-26 win at home over Campbell. Note that Ga Southern trailed 20-6 in the 2nd half of that game. 

That's a Campbell team that Coastal dominated from the start and has since lost by 31 to App State (21-52) and 52 at Wake Forest (14-66). 

While traction is starting to grow on the Chanticleers, I still think there's value with this team right now. Give me Coastal Carolina -6! 

40* NC STATE/N CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (N Carolina -14.5) 

I think the line here really says it all. You don't normally see a Top 25 matchup with a team laying more than two touchdowns, especially when both teams are ranked outside of the Top 10. More times than not, the big favorite not only covers, but wins going away. That's exactly what I expect to happen in this one. 

North Carolina is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after last week's upset loss to FSU. Give credit to the Seminoles for getting that win, but the Tar Heels definitely shot themselves in the foot a number of times in that game. They nearly rallied from a 31-7 halftime deficit, as they lost 28-31. They outgained FSU 558 to 432. 

NC State is coming off a bit of a fluke win and cover over Duke, but the even bigger story is the injury suffered to starting quarterback Devin Leary. He had really been carrying this offense. Pretty big dropoff from him to backup Bailey Hockman and that's a problem because NC State must have success throwing to have any shot of keeping this close. 

That's because UNC is going to score at will against this NC State defense. While they haven't been terrible defensively in their last 3 games, those were against some sub-par offenses in Pitt, Virginia and Duke. In their first two games they gave up 42 to Wake Forest and 45 to Va Tech. I see the Tar Heels hitting 40+ in this one. Give me UNC -14.5! 

50* AUBURN/OLE MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss +3.5) 

I love the value here with the Rebels catching more than a field goal at home against Auburn. I don't know why this Tigers team gets so much love, but to me they just aren't that great of a team. They had their hands full with Kentucky in their opener at home, were dominated at Georgia, should have lost at home to Arkansas and lost on the road at South Carolina. 

While Ole Miss is 1-3, two of their losses are two Alabama and Florida. They had a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Kentucky and last week lost 21-33 at Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks doesn't look great, but it was to be expected coming off that emotional loss to the Crimson Tide. Definitely didn't help matters that they turned it over 7 times. 

I look for Lane Kiffin's offense to get back on track in this one. Auburn has only forced 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined and are far from a juggernaut on the defensive side. Also, as bad as Ole Miss' defense is, I think they can get some stops against Bo Nix and that Tigers offense. Give me the Rebels +3.5! 

40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Illinois +19.5)

I think this is too good a price to pass up with Illinois. It's taken a minute, but Lovie Smith has the Fighting Illini trending in the right direction. While they lost to Cal in their bowl game to finish up with a losing record at 6-7, that was the first time since 2014 that they got to a bowl. Their 4 conference wins were their most since they won 4 back in 2010. 

One of those wins was a 24-23 upset over #6 Wisconsin as a massive 30-point underdog. With 14 starters back, including 9 on offense, this should be the best team to date in what will be the 5th year under Smith. 

I also think there's going to be some value with road teams in the Big Ten, as family members are the only fans that are being allowed in the stadiums. Home field is huge in the Big Ten and I got lot more confidence in Illinois keeping this close in a non-hostile environment. 

There's also a lot of hype with Wisconsin centered around red-shirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz. Kid definitely has potential, but the Badgers offense is built for the run game. How much better can you really expect him to do than last year's starter Jack Coan, who completed 70% of his attempts with a 18-5 TD-INT ratio. Replacing the production of Jonathan Taylor won't be easy. Give me the Fighting Illini +19.5! 

50* TULSA/S FLORIDA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -9.5)

This line has move up to Tulsa -10 at a lot of spots and I could see this thing continuing to climb as we get closer to this game. I think we are getting big time value with the Golden Hurricane laying single digits. 

Tulsa had their big game against No. 8 ranked Cincinnati postponed because of positive Covid tests for the Bearcats. Having nearly won at Oklahoma State and upsetting UCF on the road, there's no question they were excited for that game against a Top 10 team. I look for them to take out their frustration against USF. 

I played against the Bulls last week and lost. I laid double-digits with Temple and they ended up winning by just 2. The Owls did everything in their power to make that a game. USF had 31 points late in the 3rd quarter and only one scoring drive of more than 50 yards. 

This USF offense is not that good. They were shutout at Notre Dame and scored just 7 at Cincinnati. They also managed just 24 against ECU at home, who they lost to by 20. I think they are going to have a miserable time scoring against this Tulsa defense. Give me Tulsa -9.5! 

50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5) 

I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball. 

Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value. 

More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great. 

Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense. 

Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240). 

On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line. 

The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass. 

You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5! 

40* ARK ST/APP ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Arkansas St +14.5) 

Now that this line has creeped up over two touchdowns, I got no choice here but to take a shot with Arkansas State. I think this Red Wolves team is way undervalued because they use a two quarterback system. If you combine the stats of their two guys, people would be calling their signal caller a Heisman candidate. I know the defense hasn't looked great, but we have seen this team compete against some really good teams. They only lost by 7 at Memphis and won outright 35-31 at Kansas State. 

As for Appalachian State, this has been the best program in the Sun Belt for a while now, but as is the case with a lot of small schools, it can be hard to sustain that level of success. Scott Satterfield really built up this program, but he's now two years removed and last year's head coach Eli Drinkwitz left after one season. They are now on their 3rd head coach in 3 years. 

They beat Charlotte by 15 in their opener, but were only up 1 going into the 4th quarter. They lost ugly at Marshall, scoring just 7 points. That game against the Thundering Herd was on 9/19. They had a week off before playing Campbell, which is like having a bye. They haven't played since. It's been more than a month since this team has been tested on the field. If they aren't sharp, they could easily lose this game outright. Give me Arkansas State +14.5! 

50* CHIEFS/BILLS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -5) 

I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Last week's loss to the Raiders didn't surprise me. That just felt like a game to me that KC was going to struggle to get up for. Chiefs had just played two massive games against the Ravens and Patriots, which they felt like they had to have to get the No. 1 seed. Getting that No. 1 seed is huge, as that's the only team that gets a bye in the playoffs now. 

I expect to see the Chiefs 100% locked in here against Buffalo, who is another one of those teams that are a contender for that No. 1 seed. I think we see that same team that owned the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back. 

I'm confident Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to move the ball against this Bills defense. Buffalo has really struggled on that side.As for KC's defense, I think they are going to bounce back in a big way here. This is a defense that got better and better as last year went on and prior to giving up 40 to the Raiders they had held their first 4 opponents to 20 or less. Josh Allen is the kind of QB they typically play well. Give me the Chiefs -5! 

40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -3.5) 

I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns. I said this last week when I took the Colts as a road favorite over the Browns, I’m not a believer in this team. I just don’t think Baker Mayfield is as good as people think. He had two second half interceptions against Indy with Cleveland leading by two scores.  

Now he’s going to have to be the focal point of the offense in this one, as the Steelers feature one of the league’s best run defenses. Pittsburgh is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 64.0 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. I just don’t see the Browns offense being able to score enough to give them any shot at covering this small number.  

This is also not just another game for the Steelers. As much as they will downplay it, there’s no doubt they are going to come in with a different mindset for this one, as it’s the first time they will face Cleveland with Myles Garrett since he swung a helmet at Mason Rudolph that led to him being suspended for most of last year. 

Another big factor here is the Steelers dominance of the Browns on their home field. Pittsburgh has won 16 straight at home over Cleveland with the last loss coming in 2003, which is one year before the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Adding to this, Steelers are 23-2 against the Browns with Roethlisberger as their QB home or away. Give me the Steelers -3.5.