50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4) 

I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4! 

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins -3) 

I'll take my chances with the Redskins and any other team that lines up against the Dolphins until Miami shows us they actually can be competitive. It's not just that the Dolphins are tanking, they don't have the talent to compete. I just look at how bad the Chargers are playing right now and they were able to beat the Dolphins on the road by 20. 

I think because Miami is off a bye and the Redskins sitting at 0-5 and having just fired their head coach, we are getting value. Likely the last time that happens if Miami gets destroyed here. I think they will. Redskins have had two division road games and 3 home games against the likes of the Cowboys, Bears and Patriots. They aren't a good team, but are way more talented than Miami. Also, huge that Redskins are not going to Haskins and sticking with Keenum. Expect a big effort from Washington after seeing their head coach get fired. Give me the Redskins -3! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -1.5) 

I think this is the ideal time to fade New Orleans, who come in having won and covered all 3 games with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterbacks. Sharp money appears to agree, as the line has moved in favor of the Jaguars, despite around 65% of the public action being on New Orleans.

I’m seeing a lot of Bridgewater praise after his big game against Tampa Bay, throwing for 314 yards and 4 scores. The thing with that, is the Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL, giving up 323.6 ypg. Quite a bit worse than 31st place Dolphins at 296.3 ypg.

In his previous two starts he had just 177 yards against the Seahawks and 193 against the Cowboys. He also had just 165 yards on 30 attempts in relief of Brees against the Rams. With or without Jalen Ramsey, this is a really good Jaguars defense. I think it’s going to be really hard for New Orleans to get that offense going.

I know the Saints defense has been unbelievable since Brees went down, but Jacksonville is not an easy place to play this time a year. With the temperatures expected in the mid 80’s, I think we see New Orleans give up a few more big plays than we have seen the last few weeks.

You have to love what Minshew has done in relief of Nick Foles and more than anything the Jaguar’s fans are 100% on board with him and this team right now. I think the fans show up in a big way for this one and this is a game Jacksonville desperately needs to win. Big difference between 3-3 and 2-4. Give me the Jaguars -1.5!

50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4) 

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.

I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.

I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.

Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.

As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.

Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.

Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben. 

I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees. 

I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball. 

At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes covering the 3.5 point spread at home against the Nittany Lions. I get the line here with Penn State undefeated and Iowa off an ugly loss at Michigan, but I just think this Hawkeyes team should not be a dog in this fight. Penn State has looked impressive, but they haven't played anyone close to as good as Iowa. 

You also have to factor in the magic that's taken place at Kinnick in these prime time night games. It's going to be electric in Iowa City and I think a young Nittany Lions team will be a bit overwhelmed with the atmosphere. Keep in mind their only road game all season was at Maryland, which is not exactly a tough place to play. Give me Iowa +3.5! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville +7. I want to point out that Wake Forest OVER 6 wins was one of my favorite win total plays of 2019. I just think now that they are 5-0 and ranked No. 19, they are getting way too much respect against a decent Louisville team. 

I get the rankings are often based off a team's record, but it's not like the Demon Deacons have played the stiffest of competition. They needed a last second TD to beat Utah State at home 38-35. They only won by 6 at home against UNC and squeaked by with 3-point win at BC. 

Louisville's only two losses are against Notre Dame and on the road at Florida State. There's a lot more talent on this roster than people realize. They just remember how bad this team was late last year when everyone quit on Bobby Petrino. They got a legit head coach now in Scott Satterfield and I think this is a game they could easily win outright. Give me Louisville +7! 

50* USC/ND NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC +11) 

I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about USC as a legit threat to upset Notre Dame on the road this weekend. People just don't want to give the Trojans any love and that's a big reason why I like them.

Nore Dame is a quality team with a good QB in Ian Book, but I don't think this year's squad is playoff material. Sure they played Georgia tough on the road, but they were down 23-10 with less than 5 minutes to play. Georgia also hasn't looked as good as they have the past two years. 

USC has the good on offense, especially at wide receiver to move the ball against this Irish defense and the defense has been better. You also got the Trojans playing on two weeks of rest, while Notre Dame is not and the Irish have a big road game at Michigan next week. Give me USC +11! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. I just think we are getting a very favorable line here with the Wildcats due to them coming in having lost 3 straight. 

This is not as talented a Kentucky team as last year, but it's definitely good enough to win at home in a prime time night game against a bad team like Arkansas. Keep in mind the Wildcats are coming off a bye, so they are going to be 100% locked in. The Razorbacks lost at home to San Jose State and by 14 on the road against Ole Miss. Give me Kentucky -6.5! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa State -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones laying it on the Mountaineers. Iwas on ISU in the win and cover against ULM, I faded them in their loss at Baylor and backed them as a small home favorite in a blowout win over TCU. I like them to cruise in this one. 

West Virginia just played their hearts out at home against Texas and were down just 4-points going into the 4th quarter. They have to be thinking if they don't turn it over 4 times they win that game. Tough one to bounce back from. 

As for ISU they got no room for error after losing that game at Baylor, so we can expect a max effort. The Cyclones could easily be 5-0 and ranked inside the Top 15, as they blew both losses to Iowa and Baylor. Last year ISU beat West Virginia 30-14 and it should have been worse, as they outgained them 498 to 152. Give me the Cyclones -10! 

40* NCAAF (Baylor -10.5) 

It's about time the Bears got the respect they deserve. Baylor is 5-0 and finally ranked in the Top 25. You got to be impressed with how this team went on the road and whooped K-State 31-12 last week. The thing is, the public is all over Texas Tech here after their big upset win at home against Oklahoma State. 

Big reason the Red Raiders were able to have success in that game is the Cowboys turned it over 5 time sand don't have the best defense. People think of Baylor as this fast-paced offensive taem that is okay defensively. Bears are a lot better than okay on defense under Matt Rhule. They are holding teams to 3.1 yards/cary and 5.9 yards/completion. 

In the Red Raiders two road games they have lost by 14 to Arizona and by 39 at Oklahoma. No reason not to think Baylor doesn't win here by at least 14. Give me the Bears -10.5! 

40* NCAAF (Texas A&M +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the 17.5 at home against the Crimson Tide. Few are giving the Aggies any shot in this game, but this the last team you want to count out at home. 

This is the game the Aggies have had circled all year. Jimbo Fisher is looking to be the first former Saban assistant to beat him. I don't know that they will, but I think they got the goods to at least keep it within the number. 

Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have gained 475 or more total yards in 3 straight games and are outgaining teams on the seaon by 125+ yards/game are a mere 11-33 (25%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Aggies +17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Washington St +1.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cougars as a small road dog against the Sun Devils. I believe the books are telling you exactly who they think is going to win this game by making No. 18 ranked Arizona State a mere 1.5-point home favorite against a Washington State team that has lost two straight and is off an ugly 38-13 loss at Utah. 

Arizona State has two impressive road wins over Michigan State and Cal. Two horrible offensive teams. Washington State can light up the scoreboard with that passing attack and the Sun Devils defense is much better at stopping the run than the pass. 

Road teams that are winning 51% to 60% of their games and off a loss by 21 or more to a conference opponent are 63-29 (69%) ATS since 1992. Give me Washington State +1.5! 

50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Michigan St +10.5)

I love the Spartans as a double-digit road dog against the Badgers. Not only is Michigan State good enough to cover, but they can win this game outright. People have fallen in love with Wisconsin because of a blowout win against Michigan. It was impressive at the time, but the Wolverines look worse and worse each week. 

I get the Spartans just gave up 323 rushing yards to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have a very mobile QB and are one of the best teams in the country. Even after that performance they are only giving up 3 yards/carry. That tells you how good they are on that side of the ball. Wisconsin had their hands full against a good Northwestern defense and without Jonathan Taylor going wild there's a lot to be scared of with the Wisconsin offense (3 straight games with less than 135 yards passing). Give me the Spartans +10.5! 

40* NCAAF (South Carolina +25) 

Gamecocks will be returning from their bye week looking to build on an impressive 24-7 win and cover at home against Kentucky as a mere 3-point favorite. South Carolina has  covered 3 of 4 since that upset loss as a double-digit favorite to North Carolina in the opener. The only non-cover came in a 20-point loss at Missouri as a 9.5-point dog and the Tigers had two non-offensive touchdowns in that win.

No question the books have inflated this number with Georgia being ranked No. 3 in the country and having just covered as a 24-point favorite at Tennessee. I just haven’t been as impressed as I thought I would be with the Bulldogs so far. The win over Notre Dame looks good at the moment, as the Irish are 4-1, but I could see them losing at least a couple more games.They are 2-0 in the SEC but have played the two worst teams in Vanderbilt and Tennessee. They were only up 21-6 on the Commodores at the half and trailed the Vols in the 2nd quarter.

I actually think with the Gamecocks coming off a bye and having two weeks to prepare, they could possibly give the Bulldogs a serious scare in this game. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after covering a spread and the Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me South Carolina +25!

50* VIRGINIA/MIAMI FRIDAY NIGHT SHARP TOP PLAY (Miami -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami as a small home favorite. Unranked teams who are favored against a team ranked in the Top 25 have had an alarming amount of success against the spread. Anytime the books set a line like this that they know the public can't resist, especially in a weekday night game when it's going to be one of the biggest bet games, you just have to go against the public. I think Miami got a wake-up call in last week's loss to Va Tech. Manny Diaz is taking over more of the defense this week and Virginia's offense is limited. I think turnovers will be huge and I think Perry surprises some people. Give me the Hurricanes -2! 

40* NCAAF SYRACUSE/NC STATE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown at home against the Orange. Syracuse has won their last two and are off a bye, but this is still the same team that lost 63-20 at Maryland. I like the QB change that NC State is going with in this one. Bailey Hockman should have a field day against this Orange secondary. Syracuse gave up 296 in the air to Maryland, 391 to Clemson and 356 to Western Michigan. Wolfpack's only two losses have come on the road against Power 5 opponents. They too are off a bye and while they lost 31-13 last time out at FSU, they actually outgained the Seminoles 370 to 369. I think the Wolfpack win and win big. Give me NC State -4.5! 

50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5! 

40* NFL (Ravens -3) 

I just think Pittsburgh is getting a little too much respect here. I know they are at home, but without Big Ben given all that they lost offensively with AB and Bell, this is a 8-8 type a team. Baltimore got a humbling loss last week against the Browns and I think some of that was them suffering a bit of a letdown off that loss to the Chiefs. I just think Lamar Jackson and that offense will be too much for the Steelers to handle in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -3. 

40* NFL (Vikings -5) 

I get the excitement around the Giants with them winning each of Jones’ first two starts, but let’s not overreact to a couple of wins of the Bucs and Redskins. Tampa doesn’t lay an egg in the second half they lose that game by double-digits. Last week they were basically gift-wrapped a win with Washington going to Dwayne Haskins (9 of 17 for 107 yards with 3 interceptions).

Those are also two sub-par defensive teams. Bucs rank 20th in total defense and Redskins rank 28th. Tampa is also 30th in points allowed and Washington is 31st. Minnesota ranks both 6th in total offense and total defense.

I know Cousins has not looked great early on in 2019, but I’m a lot more confident with the Vikings offense being able to sustain drives than I am with Jones and the Giants offense.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that New York only gave up 3-points last week to the Redskins. Washington ranks in the bottom 5 in both total offense and scoring offense. It was pretty evident to why Haskins had not played up until last week, the guy isn’t ready and honestly might never be. That same Giants defense let Jameis Winston throw for 380 yards and 3 scores the week before and allowed 405 yards and 4 scores to Dak Prescott earlier in the year.

The other thing is the Giants are just middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run and the Vikings come in with the 3rd ranked rushing offense at 155 yards/game (5.2 yards/carry). Also, New York just lost starting middle linebacker Ryan Connelly to a season-ending injury. Fellow inside linebackers Tae Davis and Alec Ogletree are both questionable to play, as is starting strong-side backer Lorenzo Carter. Give me the Vikings -5.

40* NFL (Bucs +3.5) 

I really like what I've seen out of the Bucs early on. This is a different team with Bruce Arians and I just think people are a little slow to buy into them because of Jameis Winston. Tampa has just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. They went into LA and laid it on the Rams last week. I know the Saints are off an impressive win at home over Dallas, but I think some of that was the Cowboys not being as good as we thought given their easy schedule and the boost they got from it being a prime time game. I just don't know how you trust the Saints with how much the offense has struggled to score with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Give me Tampa Bay +3.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)

These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.

On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.

I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.

Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (UCLA -5.5) 

Love UCLA laying less than a touchdown at home. I know there's a chance Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't play, but they are going up against a bad Oregon State defense. Beavers are allowing 428 ypg and 6.1 yards/play in 2019. Also, I think the UCLA offense is way better than people realize. The numbers are simply skewed because of a brutal schedule. They have played Cincinnati, San Diego St, Oklahoma, Washington State and Arizona. Three of those on the road with Oklahoma one of the two home games. Oregon State nearly upset STanford but lost in a gut-wrencher 31-28. Beavers are 0-1 on the road this year (lost at Hawaii) and are now 1-23 away from home since 2015. Give me UCLA -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Pittsburgh +5) 

I think this is the ideal spot to fade Duke. People are falling in love with the Blue Devils because they destroyed Va Tech on the road. There's some serious problems with that Hokies team. Their only other wins are against N Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. They lost by 39 to Alabama and the Crimson Tide didn't play great. Keep in mind Duke was picked to finish in the bottom half of the Coastal. I just think the Blue Devils are a bit of fools gold right now. Pitt on the other hand, we know they are legit. I know they barely scarped by 17-14 at home against Delaware last week, but they actually makes me like them more in this spot. I think they win outright. Give me the Panthers +5! 

40* NCAAF (Oregon -17.5) 

This is one of those high-profile games where the number is drawing a lot of attention to the underdog. I think people see Cal with road wins over Washington and Ole Miss and think they can keep this within 17.5. Maybe if it was in Berkley. When Oregon is good, they are really tough to play against at home, especially in night games. I think they got a QB in Herbert that can dissect a good Golden Bears defense and if they get up early at all this will spiral out of control. Oregon needs to not just win, but win big in Pac-12 play if they want to get back in the playoff picture. They won't let off the gas. Give me the Ducks -17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Tulsa +13) 

It's been quite a start to 2019 for SMU, who is now ranked No. 24 to go along with being 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. I just don't know that's warranted. They got a few wins against teams that I think we expected to be good but aren't (S Florida, North Texas). They also have that big road win over TCU, but that result didn't surprise me. I don't think the Horned Frogs are all that great this year. It can be tough for teams to handle the spotlight that comes with being in the Top 25. Tulsa is also no pushover. They have played Michigan State tough on the road and Oklahoma State tough at home. They got a defense that is a lot better than people realize. I think they give the Mustangs all they can handle. Give me Tulsa +13! 

40* NCAAF (Michigan State +21) 

I just got a gut feeling that now is the time to fade Ohio State. A lot of people, including myself, got burned backing Nebraska last week as a 17.5-point home dog to the Buckeyes. Will be hard for a lot of people to back a Michigan State team to keep this within 21. I get it, but I think this is the role that Sparty thrives in. Ohio State isn't going to be perfect every single time out. They are due for a let down. I know the offense isn't great for Michigan State, but the defense is lights out and I think they do enough on that side to keep this within the number. Give me the Spartans +21! 

40* NCAAF (Colorado -4)

Really like the Buffaloes to cover the 4-point spread at home against Arizona. Not only do I think Colorado is the better team, but the Wildcats could be without starting QB Khalil Tate and if he does play I don't expect him to impact the game like he has. Last year he got banged up and just simply didn't run at all. They also might be without running back J.J. Taylor. Wildcat are 3-1 and riding a 3-game win streak, but all were at home. Arizona is just 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning (.500 or better) home record. Also just 7-19 ATS last 26 road games overall. Give me the Buffaloes -4! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -7) 

This is an easy play for me on the Cornhuskers. I get Nebraska couldn't have looked much worse than they did at home against Ohio State. Clearly the Cornhuskers aren't at the level they want to be at under head coach Scott Frost. What people need to realize is Ohio State is really good. If this was later in the year and Nebraska was like 7-1 and lost this game I could see them not showing up the next week, but they still got a lot to play for at 3-2 and 1-1 in the Big Ten. Their goal has to be winning the west and getting another crack at the Buckeyes. Northwestern's offense is atrocious and the defense can only carry you so far. Not to mention a letdown for the Wildcats off a closer than expected loss to Wisconsin. Give me Nebraska -7! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -1)

I’ve really been impressed with what I’ve seen out of this K-State team under new head coach Chris Klieman. For those that don’t know, Klieman won 4 national championships in 5 seasons at the FCS level with North Dakota State.

There’s no denying that the Wildcats got outplayed by Oklahoma State, but winning on the road in Stillwater is not easy, especially in a night game. Cowboys were also playing inspired off a loss to Texas. I think we are going to see that script reversed this week with K-State feeding off the home crowd in a game we know we are getting their best after that ugly loss.

Another thing is the Wildcats defense simply had no answer for the Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, who had 296 yards on just 25 attempts. Hubbard leads the country with 938 yards (next best is J.K. Dobbins at 654). Baylor doesn’t have that kind of talent at running back.

The Bears come in averaging a healthy 216 rushing yards/game, but most of that came against Stephen F Austin and UTSA. They had just 124 rushing yards on 35 attempts against Rice and 104 yards in 34 attempts against ISU.

Charlie Brewer has been solid for the Bears, but K-State’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the country giving up just 127.3 ypg.

This is also the first real road test for Baylor. Their only other road game was at Rice and while they pulled off the dogs after getting up 21-0, they also only beat the Owls by a final score of 21-13. I just think the Bears are getting a little too much respect in this one. Give me the Wildcats -1.

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa State -3) 

I think the books have made a huge mistake here only making Iowa State -3 at home against the likes of TCU. This line says that it would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Maybe even have TCU favored. Not buying that for a second. Cyclones are better on both sides of the ball. Usually you give TCU the head coaching edge with Gary Patterson, but I would rather have Matt Campbell as my head coach if I was starting a program today. If it comes down to QB play the Cyclones have a clear edge with Brock Purdy, who is one of the best kept secrets in the country. I just don't see Iowa State losing this at home and going to 0-2 in Big 12 play. Give me the Cyclones -3! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville -5.5) 

I think Louisville is in a lot better shape than people realize. Most just wrote off the Cardinals this year because they were coming off an ugly 2-10 campaign (really weren't competitive in a lot of games) and going to be in the first year of a new head coach. I think a lot of last year's struggles was the team quitting on head coach Bobby Petrino. I thought they looked like a completely different team in their opener against Notre Dame and again in a 24-35 loss at Florida State (led 24-21 in the 4th). I think they are going to be desperate for a win coming out of their bye. They are every bit as good offensively as BC, but are much better defensively and will have the home crowd to give them energy. Give me the Cardinals -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Utah State +28) 

I think it's worth a shot to play Utah State as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. I know the Tigers have whooped up on some bad teams the last couple of weeks and have covered some big spreads. I just think this is one of those spots where the Ed Orgeron fire isn't there. They are sitting at No. 5 and couldn't have looked better going into their bye. They know they are better than Utah State and have a huge home game against Florida (homecoming) on deck. Utah State has a really good quarterback in Jordan Love, who I think will be able to make some plays and keep this within the number. LSU defense hasn't exactly been great, giving up 38 at Texas and 38 to Vanderbilt. Give me the Aggies +28! 

40* UCF/CINCINNATI ATS MONEY-MAKER (Cincinnati +4.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a home dog against the Knights. UCF is a good team, but I think they are a bit overrated right now. We just saw them lose on the road to Pitt a couple weeks ago and their best win of 2019 is a 45-27 victory against a struggling Stanford team. 

Bearcats only loss of 2019 is a 42-0 whooping on the road to Ohio State. After watching what the Buckeyes just did to Nebraska, that don't look all that bad. They absolutely dominated a good Marshall team last week 52-14 on the road. This is an outstanding defensive team under Luke Fickell. I think being Physical is the way to beat this UCF team, so it's a great matchup. Add in the atmosphere of a home game at Nippert Stadium in this kind of spot. Give me the Bearcats +4.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -11) 

I get East Carolina has a winning record at 3-2 and are off an upset win at Old Dominion, but I still think they are really bad. Two of their three wins were against Gardner Webb and William & Mary.

I also think we can learn a lot from their two losses. They got annihilated by NC STate 34-6 in the season opener. They were outgained in that game 505 to 269. Since we have seen the Wolfpack lose 44-27 at West Virginia and 31-13 at FSU. Losing at Florida State by only 18 isn’t horrible, but only scoring 13-points against that Seminoles D is. They also got destroyed 42-10 by Navy, getting outgained 468 to 222.

As for the win over Old Dominion. I question if that wasn’t more of the Monarchs just not having anything left in the tank after a couple of grueling road games against Power 5 opponents in Virginia Tech and Virginia. ODU was only down 24-17 in the 4th quarter at Va Tech and had a 17-0 lead in a 28-17 loss to Virginia.

You also can’t ignore how this series has gone with Temple having won and covered all 5 meetings between the two inside the AAC. Each of the last 3 have been decided by 24 or more points.

Pirates are a miserable 13-40 ATS in their last 43 versus a team with a winning record. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 off a SU win. Temple is 22-6 ATS last 28 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 on Thursday. Give me the Owls -11!

50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line. 

I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3! 

40* COWBOYS/SAINTS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -2.5) 

I get the Saints rolled last week at Seattle, but the Seahawks don’t look right. I get a lot of the yards Seattle racked up came late with the game out of reach, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Seahawks outgained New Orleans 515 to 265.

What really decided that game was the fact that the Saints scored 2 non-offensive touchdowns. They got a 53-yard punt return for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 33-yard fumble return in the 2nd quarter. Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdowns, but was just 19 of 27 for 177 yards.

Keep in mind the offense was also awful after Brees went down in Week 2 against the Rams. New Orleans could only muster 3 field goals with Bridgewater running the show and he was just 17 of 30 for 165 yards. I don’t know how you can trust this offense at basically a pick’em against one of the better teams in the league.

On top of that, the Saints defense has not been good. New Orleans ranks 26th in the league against the run (134.7 ypg) and are 31st against the pass (319.0 ypg). Dallas has the 3rd ranked offense in the league right now, ranking 3rd in rushing (179 ypg) and 7th in passing (306.7 ypg).

You also have to factor in that these are two teams that a lot of people think will be a factor in the NFC playoffs. Given the chance that this game could potentially decide who gets a first round bye or home field in a playoff matchup, I just don’t see the Cowboys losing here. Give me Dallas -2.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Oakland getting a touchdown here against a banged up Colts team. I think Indy is getting a little too much love right now for their 2-1 start. They beat the Titans and Falcons and were lucky to win both of those. I get Brissett is playing well, but this is not a playoff team without Luck. Neither are the Raiders, but I don't think Oakland is as worse off as this line suggest. Raiders may have played the best team from each conference the last two weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland won this game outright. GIve me the Raiders +7! 

40* NFL VEGAS ATS PERSONAL FAVORITE (Chiefs -6.5)

I'll take my chances with Kansas City winning by at least a touchdown on Sunday. Lions are not as good as their 2-0-1 record might lead you to believe. At the same time, the Chiefs are better than anticipated and that offense is going to have a field day on the fast inside turf at the dome. I also think KC's defense is better than it's getting credit for right now. They just played a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson, who makes something out of nothing. Lions got Stafford playing on a bum hip and they have not ran the ball great this year. I don't see Detroit keeping pace with the reigning MVP. Give me Kansas City -6.5! 

50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3) 

I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3! 

50* NFL PUBLIC BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chargers -14) 

I'll take my chances with Los Angeles laying only 14 against the Dolphins. Unless I missed something, Miami still wants absolutely nothing to do with winning games this season. They are off to a historically bad start and I don't think it's a fluke at all. There is no talent on this team. They have scored 16 points in 3 games and allowed 133. I get the Chargers are banged up, but they got enough talent on defense to keep Miami off the scoreboard and Rivers is playing QB. Give me Los Angeles -14! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT BAILOUT ATS MASSACRE (UCLA +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Chip Kelly and UCLA building off last week's incredible 67-63 win at Washington State. That is the definition of the type of win that can completely flip the script for a program. Let's also not forget that the Bruins 1-3 start is 100% a result of a brutal schedule. 

They lost the opener at Cincinnati 24-14 and could have easily came out on top in that game. They had some costly turnovers on the road in Week 1. It happens. They had letdown at home against Sand Diego State and ran into a buzz saw in Oklahoma. To respond the way they did last week after getting kicked in the teeth to start that game says a lot about the character of the UCLA players. 

Arizona is nothing special. Khalil Tate has been one of the most overrated players in the country for years now. He's a great running back playing quarterback. I think having faced Jalen Hurts will pay off big for UCLA defense in preparing for this game. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this outright. Give me the Bruins +7! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (North Texas -7) 

I'll take my chances here with North Texas laying a touchdown at home to the Cougars. It’s one thing to lose one of your best players to injury. It’s another to have two of your top players decide to just quit on their teammates because things aren’t going as well as they had hoped. For senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wideout Keith Corbin to pass on the final 8 games because they started out 1-3, is just not right. They are abusing the new rule where you can redshirt if you play 4 or fewer games.

With a defense that is not very good, I don’t know how the Cougars stay competitive the rest of the way without King under center. King is everything to Houston’s offense. He’s thrown for 663 yards and 6 touchdowns and leads the team in rushing with 312 yards and 6 scores. You go from a guy who was getting Heisman consideration to a guy with no experience.

They got a PAR rating that they do, which is a points above replacement value for players. King had the 4th best mark in the country at 18 points above replacement.

I just don’t see Houston’s offense being able to keep pace here with a potent North Texas offense that is led by one of the better quarterbacks you probably haven’t heard of in Mason Fine. Fine should have no problem here guiding the Mean Green offense against a Houston defense that is giving up 300 yards/game and 9.3 yards/pass attempt on the season.

The other big thing is I don’t see North Texas treating this game any differently because King isn’t playing. Mean Green haven’t won a game against Houston since 1975. North Texas head coach Seth Litrell already has 9 wins over in-state rivals in the 3+ years he’s been with the program. I think the Mean Green win and win big. Give me North Texas -7!

40* OHIO ST/NEBRASKA BIG TEN ATS DESTROYER (Nebraska +17.5)

I'll take my chances with Nebraska to cover as a 3-score home dog to Ohio State. I just think that we are seeing an inflated number here with the Buckeyes coming off 3 straight covers that really weren’t close. They covered the spread by 27.5 against Cincinnati, by 23.5 against Indiana and by 32.5 against Miami (OH).

It’s not like we haven’t seen the Buckeyes slip up in a similar spot the past two years. In 2017 they went on the road to face Iowa as a 18-point favorite and lost outright 55-24. Last year they were a 12-point favorite at Purdue and lost 49-20.

Even though Nebraska hasn’t looked as good as anticipated, there’s no question that the atmosphere for this game is going to be electric. This is a potential program defining game for Scott Frost.

With that said, I 100% believe the sloppy play and near upset at Illinois last week was a direct result of this game being on deck. One thing to note is that while the game was decided by just a few points, Nebraska was hands down the better team. The Cornhuskers outgained the Fighting Illini 673 to 299 (+374) with a 32-14 edge in first downs.

I know they haven’t seen anything like the talent that the Buckeyes have on offense, but I think it’s worth noting how good the Nebraska defense has been against the run. Cornhuskers are only giving up 117 yards/game and a mere 3.1 yards/carry. Considering Ohio State is averaging 262 rushing yards/game, if they can slow down the ground game I think they got a chance.

Buckeyes are just 2-10 ATS going back to 1992 after 4 straight games where they put up 450 or more total yards. Nebraska is also 16-4 ATS since 1992 after scoring and allowing 30 or more points in their previous game.

Home underdogs who have scored 42 or more in 2 straight games are 59-26 (69%) ATS since 1992. Also home dogs of 14.5 or more off 2 straight wins with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% are 29-7 (81%) ATS when playing a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska!

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with South Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Wildcats. I was impressed with the Gamecocks in their loss to Alabama a couple weeks back. I did lose with them last week as a 9.5-point dog at Missouri. They ended up losing by 20, but that's because the Tigers got two non-offensive touchdowns. It was a 17-14 game early in the 3rd quarter. 

I think backup quarterback Ryan Hilinski might actually be better than starter Jake Bentley, who they lost for the year. Hilinski threw 324 yards and 2 scores against Alabama and it's not like it all came in garbage time. Crimson Tide only outgained SC 571-459.  They were down just 11 in the 2nd half. 

Kentucky was the surprise of the SEC last year, but they have lost a lot and are also down their starting QB (Terry Wilson). I'm not all that impressed with backup Sawyer Smith, who is only completing 50.6% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. Wildcats need to be dominant on the ground just to score and we saw the Gamecocks defense hold Alabama's rushing attack to just 76 yards on 25 attempts. Give me South Carolina -3! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (South Florida +8)

I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than a touchdown at home against the Mustangs. I was on SMU as a near double-digit dog in last week's outright win at TCU. Now it's time to fade. I don't know that TCU was as good as people thought, which is why I liked SMU. 

SMU has gone from a team no one knew about to a team people are talking about. I think the Mustangs could be feeling themselves a bit right now and no one wants anything to do with this Bulls team. I think we get a huge effort from USF coming off their bye as a home dog. Charlie Strong is 4-1 SU off a bye at South Florida. Give me the Bulls +8! 

40* VIRGINIA/N DAME BIG GAME ATS SLAUGHTER (Virginia +11.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I was on Notre Dame last week in their cover at Georgia. That's because 14-points was way too many for them to be catching. 

Now it's the Irish who are being ask to lay too big a number against a quality opponent. Bronco Mendenhall has the Cavaliers going in the right direction. THey have gone from 2 to 6 to 8 wins in his first 3 years and with 14 starters back, this is the best team they have had since he came to town. 

I know they have had to rally to win a bunch of their games, but I think the 16-point win at Pitt and victory at home against a much-improved FSU team are great wins. Has to be some letdown here with the Irish off that loss to Georgia. There's also a ton of added pressure on ND, as another loss will all but eliminate them from playoff consideration. Give me Virginia +11.5! 

50* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a home dog against the Cyclones. I want to make it clear I love ISU head coach Matt Campbell and was on the Cyclones last week in their blowout win over ULM. I just think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. Matt Rhule has rebuilt this program the right way and we are now in year 3 of him at Waco. 

They went 1-11 in his first year and followed that up by going 7-6 with a bowl win. They got 15 starters back, including a talented jr QB in Charlie Brewer. People just haven't taken notice because of their easy schedule. They went through the motions in last week's 21-13 win at Rice. That was not as close as the final score. 

I think Baylor's defense will be the difference here. We saw Iowa State's offense struggle at home against both UNI and Iowa. BIg thing people overlook with that Iowa game is because of all the rain the Hawkeyes couldn't get a pass rush going with the sloppy field. That's their strength. The loss of running back David Montgomery and wide out Hakeem Butler are bigger than anticipated. The wrong team is favored here. Give me Baylor +3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (C Michigan +17) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chippewas getting 17-points against in-state rival Western Michigan. I think we are getting an exceptional price on Central Michigan because they are down starting quarterback Quinten Dormady. I don't think it's a severe dropoff at all to backup David Moore, especially against what I think is a pretty weak Broncos defense. 

I actually Western Michigan has the bigger injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They are down their No. 1 wide out in D'Wayne Eskridge and their top back, Levante Bellamy is questionable to play. Central Michigan just held the Hurricanes to 17 points on the road, so there's more than enough reason to think they keep the Broncos from going off. Give me the Chippewas +17! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Vanderbilt -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Vanderbilt winning by at least a touchdown at home against Northern Illinois. Definitely not paying a premium on a Commodores team that is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Thing is, we knew this start was coming. Vandy has had to host two of the best teams in the country in LSU and Georgia and their lone road game was at Purdue. No question that the Commodores are better than what the numbers say. 

As for Northern Illinois, this is a team I was done on coming into the year. People might be willing to give them a pass for their 1-2 start considering their two defeats are at Utah and Nebraska. Thing is, they weren't competitive in either of those games. I also think people overlook that they were tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter with FCS foe Illinois State in their opener. 

Vandy might be the worst SEC team, but they are 7-points better than Northern Illinois. Especially with the game being at home and the team desperate for their first win of 2019. Give me the Commodores -6.5! 

50* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +27.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas Tech as a near 4-touchdown dog against the Sooners. Oklahoma is getting all kinds of love right now. They are 3-0 with impressive wins over Houston (49-31) and UCLA (48-14). Red Raiders on the other hand are a team no one wants anything to do with coming off a 28-14 loss at Arizona and down starting quarterback Alan Bowman. 

It seems like Texas Tech has an endless supply of quarterbacks. They got two guys who can make plays in Jett Duffey and Jackson Tyner. Both are going to play and I think the uncertainty of what to expect will make it hard for Oklahoma to prepare for this game. 

Both teams are coming off a bye, but coming into 2019, the Sooners were just 1-3 under Lincoln Riley off a bye. That's a significant stat given they have only lost 4 games since he took over. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells went 9-2 off a bye at Utah State. 

We know the Red Raiders are gonna bring it and I think it's really going to benefit them having just faced a similar quarterback to Jalen Hurts in Arizona's Khalil Tate. It could be something like 52-27 and we cash a winner with points to spare. Give me the Red Raiders +27.5! 

40* NCAAF NAVY/MEMPHIS ATS KNOCKOUT (Memphis -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here and lay the points with Memphis at home. I’m expecting Navy to be better than the team that went 3-10 last year, but I just don’t know that a couple of blowout wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina are enough for me to take them in this spot.

Not only might the Midshipmen be overvalued right now, but you have to think Memphis will be 100% locked in for this matchup. They have to be sick and tired of losing to this Navy team.

I really think having that extra week to prepare for the Midshipmen’s option attack is huge and I also feel like this might be one of the better defenses the Tigers have fielded under head coach Mike Norvell. I just don’t know that it’s as obvious to people who don’t watch this team week-to-week. Everyone thinks Cal has this amazing defense and the Golden Bears gave up 525 yards to Ole Miss. Again, Memphis held them to a mere 173 yards.

If you can keep an option team from sustaining drives and put points on the board, it’s really hard for that option team to get back in the game. Bad things tend to happen to run-first teams when they are forced to throw a lot.

Memphis has covered 5 of their last 6 at home, are 6-1 ATS last 7 inside AAC play and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a bye week. Navy is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road, 2-6-1 ATS. Give me Memphis -10.5!

50* BEARS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Bears -5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the spread as a 5-point road favorite against the Redskins. Usually I would be tempted to take the home dog on MNF, but I don't like this Redskins team at all right now. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on offense or the talent on defense to be all that competitive, especially with all the guys they are missing right now. Bears offense has struggled, but the defense has been great. I think Chicago's defense dominates this matchup and we finally see Tribusky and the offense get going. Give me the Bears -5! 

40* NFL AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a touchdown dog against the Bucs. I love the fact that NY decided to bench Eli Manning in favor of the rookie Daniel Jones. I really liked what I saw out of Jones in the preseason and I expect him to play well. 

As for the Bucs, I think they are getting a little too much love after beating the Panthers in Week 2. Jameis Winston can not be trusted to take care of the ball and this not a team that has really impressed on the offensive side of the ball. They want to be more of a running team, but are only averaging 3.9 yards/carry. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants won this game outright. Give me New York +7! 

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Raiders +10) 

This might become a reoccurring theme for me, but I think we are seeing the Raiders way undervalued after a bad loss at home to the Chiefs. I was all over Jacksonville in Week 2 after they got embarrassed by KC. I just don't think people realize how good Mahomes is playing. 

Outside of the 2nd quarter where Mahomes went off, Oakland's defense really played well. That's after a strong showing in Week 1 against the Broncos. I think the Raiders are better defensively than people get credit for. 

Vikings are a good team, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win here by double-digits. I still have major concerns with the offense and it's ability to score. If Minnesota doesn't bring their "A" game, I think Oakland could win here outright. Give me the Raiders +10! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1) 

I'll take my chances here with Indianapolis at basically a pick'em at home against the Falcons. I'll be the first to admit I thought the Colts were in serious trouble when Luck went down. I don't think I was alone. I still think there's a lack of trust with Indy in terms of how the public views them. 

Not me. I like what I've seen out of Jacoby Brissett and this is a team that now wants to beat you with a strong running game and defense. For them to put up 203 yards rushing on the Chargers and then another 167 against the Titans, is real impressive. 

Falcons are coming off a big win at home against a Eagles team that really hasn't looked great. They had to rally from way back to avoid losing as a double-digit favorite to the Redskins in Week 1. I still think back to Week 1 when Atlanta managed just 12 points against the Vikings. 

Brissett is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Falcons just 1-8 ATS last 9 with Matt Ryan as their starter against a team with a similar win percentage. Atlanta is also a mere 4-13 under head coach Dan Quinn in non-conference games. Give me the Colts -1! 

50* NFL WK 3 VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Kansas City winning by at least at TD at home against the Ravens. The public has really fallen into the Lamar Jackson hype and we saw that with how many people looked to back them last week as a double-digit favorite against the Cardinals. To me this line is begging the public to take Baltimore, which only makes me like Kansas City more.

I get the love for Jackson. He's putting up crazy numbers, but unlike a lot of people I'm not completely on board with him as a pocket passer. His huge stateline from Week 1, where he threw for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns is going to look a lot less impressive the more beatings the Dolphins take. Miami is as bad a team as I can remember. They have officially brought tanking to the NFL.

There's nothing wrong with throwing for 272 yards and 2 scores, but Matt Stafford had 385 and 3 scores against the Cardinals in Week 1. Not to mention they only managed to score 23 points with Jackson throwing for 272 and rushing for 120.

Last year Jackson only threw for 147 yards against a Chiefs defense that was arguably the worst in the league. He also only had 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts.

This Chiefs defense isn't elite by any means, but I definitely think it's improved over last year. More than anything, you have to factor in how much better their defense tends to play at home compared to on the road. The atmosphere at Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being their home opener and how excited everyone is about this team.

I think they can contain the Ravens offense and we know we are going to get a big game from Mahomes. I don't care what the Baltimore defense did in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I'm focused on rookie Kyler Murray torching that secondary for 349 yards. Ravens defense is not as good as it was a year ago. They added Earl Thomas, but they lost Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, and Za'Darius Smith. They are already down starting corner Jimmy Smith and backup corner Tavon Young.

One thing I've really been impressed with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid is how they are able to adjust what teams are doing against them. I think playing against this Don Martindale defense last year will definitely work in their favor. Give me the Chiefs -6.5.

50* AFC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR (Bills -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills winning by at least a touchdown at home. I played against Cincinnati last week in my biggest play of Week 2 and cashed in an easy winner as the 49ers won 41-17 as a mere 1-point home favorite. 

I'm not about to sit here and tell you Buffalo is a great team, but I love this matchup. Bengals offensive line has shown me nothing. Dalton has been under a ton of pressure and they had just 34 rushing yards in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2. All their damage has come via the passing game. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and look every bit as good on that side this year. 

Bengals won't be able to score and while the Bills aren't an offensive juggernaut, they likely need to hit around 24 to cash in a cover. I could see them scoring even more with a few big turnovers. Give me Buffalo -6! 

40* ND/GEORGIA PRIME TIME ATS DESTROYER (Notre Dame +14.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish at this price. The only reason I can think that the public isn’t on Notre Dame more, is because of all the talk with the Irish shouldn’t have made the playoffs, despite going 12-0. Georgia is one of those teams that thought they deserved that spot of Notre Dame and felt justified of that after the Irish lost 30-3 to Clemson in the semifinals. It's just assumed ND can't win the big game. 

I just think that makes a whole lot of sense. It would one thing if Clemson didn’t go out an embarrass Alabama in the title game. I have to think Notre Dame is sick and tired of hearing about how they didn’t deserve to make it. The Irish can quiet everyone with a strong showing against Georgia and I guarantee you they don’t just think they can keep it close. They believe they can win this game.

I don’t know if they can, but I definitely think they are good enough to keep it within 14. I mean the Bulldogs did only beat Vandy by 24 on the road and Notre Dame is way more talented than the Commodores. I also really like Ian Book at quarterback and when you got a talent like that under center you got a shot to win any game you play.

This isn’t the first time Georgia has been overvalued in this spot. Bulldogs are just 6-16 ATS last 22 at home after a cover as a double-digit favorite. Give me the Irish +14.5! 

50* OK STATE/TEXAS BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas -5) 

I think we all knew it was just a matter of time before Tom Herman had Texas back into the national spotlight. After going 7-6 in his first year they went 10-4 last year. With just 8 starters back, a lot of people were thinking Texas would struggle this year. 

After watching that game against LSU, that's not the case. As long as Sam Ehlinger is healthy, this team is going to be tough to beat. The defense is the only thing keeping them being a legit national title contender. 

I love Mike Gundy and I think they are definitely a team that came into this season undervalued. However, I don't think they got the goods here to win on the road with an inexperienced quarterback in Spencer Sanders. OK State won 40-21 at Tulsa last week, but were just 12 of 22 for 169 yards through the air. They aren't going to run on this Texas defense and I just don't see them keeping pace here. Give me the Longhorns -5! 

40* NCAAF UNDERVALUED DOG OF THE WEEK (South Carolina +9.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with South Carolina getting almost double-digits at Missouri. I was really impressed with how well the Gamecocks played against Alabama last week. They were only down 24-13 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. 

There was some panic when starting quarterback Jake Bentley suffered a season-ending injury, but not anymore. Backup Ryan Hilinski went 36 of 57 for 324 yards and 2 scores against a team just about everyone expects to play for a national championship. 

I get Missouri rebounded from an ugly loss at Wyoming to start the year, but I don't think a team that loses to a middle of the pack MWC team should be laying this kind of number. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Gamecocks won outright. Give me South Carolina +9.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (SMU +9.5) 

I'll take my chances here as a near double-digit dog against the Horned Frogs. I really like what I've seen out of this SMU team and you know they are going to be jacked up for this one. Any time one of these smaller Texas schools gets to play one of the big boys, they give it all they got. 

Maybe the least talked about transfer QB is the Mustangs Shane Buechele, who went to SMU from Texas. Buchele has lived up to the hype in the first 3 games, throwing for 871 yards (66.3% completion rate) and 5 scores. SMU also has a dynamic back in Xavier Jones, who is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and has 7 TDs. 

TCU is a team people expected to be improved after going just 7-6 last year and they are off a convincing 34-13 win at Purdue. The thing is, the Boilermakers didn't have starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar and backup Jack Plummer was not good in relief. 

Horned Frogs rushing numbers look impressive, but they are only averaging 0.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents were giving up. SMU is only allowing 3.3 yards/carry against the run. I'm not saying they win the game, but I think they will have a shot to do just that. Take SMU +9.5! 

50* AUBURN/TEXAS A&M SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -3.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies as a small home favorite. Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play, especially in a big game like this. They don’t call it the “Home of the 12th Man” for nothing.

I also think even though Texas A&M comes in ranked No. 17 and Auburn is sitting there at No. 8, I think the Aggies are the better team. The schedule is the only reason more people weren’t higher on Texas A&M coming into the year.

I love the fact that the Aggies let one get away last year. I think that only adds more motivation playing with that kind of revenge.

The other big thing for me is I think Bo Nix isn’t as good as the hype. He made a great throw to win the game against Oregon, but he was just 13 of 31 (41.9%) for a 177 yards with 2 interceptions. He only threw for 207 yards on 19 of 37 passing (51.4%) against Tulane and had just 161 yards against Kent State.

I just think he has to play great for them to win and I don’t see it happening. Not only is Kyle Field a tough place to play, but this going to be his first start in a true road game.

On top of that, Texas A&M is not letting team run on them. Aggies are only giving up 83.7 yards/game and we know they are legit against the run given they held Clemson to just 121 yards on 33 attempts (3.7 yards/carry). If they can get Auburn into some 3rd and longs, I think Nix will make a mistake or two that should give us the separation needed for the cover. Give me Texas A&M -3.5!

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan +3.5)

I think it's worth a shot here on the Wolverines. Michigan was favored in this matchup prior to the season and now are getting over a field goal. Everyone seems to want to write this team off because they had a close call against Army. 

I get that expectations are high and they should beat the Black Knights comfortably, but that's not a fun team to play against. What about last year when they took No. 5 Oklahoma to OT. I think the Sooners turned out okay. 

I still love the talent at Michigan and while I think Wisconsin came into this season a bit undervalued, we don't even know if they are the best team in that much weaker West division of the Big Ten. 

Wisconsin has an experienced QB in Jack Coan, who I also think is a bit limited in his ability. He's had it easy so far in the first two games, as the Badgers have been able to run at will with Jonathan Taylor. I don't think they are going to be able to just run the ball down the Wolverines throats. I think we are going to see Michigan's offense get a lot of really good field position and that offense is going to breakout at some point. Give me the Wolverines +3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa State -18.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones bouncing back in a big way from that tough loss at home to in-state rival Iowa. With the Big 12 portion of their schedule starting up next week, ISU needs to get some momentum going in their favor. 

I think they will have no problem laying one on ULM. There are going to be some that take the Warhawks because they see they almost beat Florida State on the road (lost in OT). However, they will ignore the fact that the Seminoles had a 24-7 edge at the half and just didn't show up after halftime. Matt Campbell's team will not make that mistake. 

The offensive numbers are good for ULM, but they are about to get a taste of a real defense in Iowa State. I think we are going to see Brock Purdy and that Cyclones offense go off for 40+ and easily cover the number here. Give me Iowa State -18.5! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Boise St -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Boise State winning by at least 8 at home Friday night. A lot of people were on Colorado last week and thought the Buffaloes would win easy. I think the public came away impressed with Air Force and see value with them getting more than a touchdown.

I get it, but I think this is a much tougher spot for Air Force than people realize. For those that don’t know, the Falcons campus is located in Colorado Springs, CO. That was the first time since 1974 that they got a chance to play Colorado. That’s was not just another game for this team. When you get that hyped up for a matchup, it can be tough to bring that same energy the next week, especially on the road with a short week of prep.

I really like what I’ve seen out of this Boise State team and I think the true freshman Bachmeier will have a big day here against a suspect Falcons secondary. I also expect an extra focused Broncos team with a lot of people picking Air Force as their biggest threat in the Mountain division.

The other thing here is that it’s no secret the Falcons offense is built around their ground attack. Boise State’s defense is built around their front 7 and are giving up just 3.5 yards/carry versus the run. The defense was outstanding in that earlier Friday night clash with Marshall, holding the Thundering herd to just 172 yards.

If Boise State can get up early, Air Force is not the team to play from behind. Give me the Broncos -7.5!

50* UTAH/USC PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (USC +4)

I'll take my chances here with USC as a home dog. The betting public is going to be all over the Utes in this one and the public side is typically not the side you want to be on in these prime time weekday matchups.

Not to mention there will be plenty of people who simply take the Utes here because of the fact that Utah won 30-12 at BYU and USC lost on the road to the Cougars. Much like turnovers cost the Trojans in their loss to BYU, Utah had a +3 turnover margin in their win against the Cougars. It was definitely a much more evenly matched game than the final score would indicate.

That was also not an ideal spot for USC last week. Not only did the Trojans get revenge on Stanford in a big way, they went from being a team people weren’t really talking a ton about to being in the Top 25. They also had this big game against Utah on deck, which a lot of people think will decide the Pac-12 South.

Another thing that can’t be overlooked is the atmosphere that comes with a big game like this, especially when it’s a night game in the national spotlight. The home team has dominated in this series winning the last 6, so it’s hard to not take the points in this one.

Lastly, I really like what I’ve seen from Slovis. I know the interceptions may have cost them a win last week, but that was his first start on the road. I think he bounces in a big way on Friday night. Give me the Trojans +4!

50* NFL TITANS/JAGS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jaguars +2)

I was against Jacksonville in Week 1 at home against the Chiefs and was all over them as a 9-point dog in Week 2. Given how big an advantage it is for the home team in these Thursday games on short rest, I would actually have Jacksonville favored here.

Two big reasons why I like the Jaguars last week against Houston, is I was confident Jacksonville’s defense was way better than it looked against the Chiefs (Mahomes will make any defense out there look bad) and I liked what I saw from rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.

While the concerns over the defense aren’t likely there, I still think people will be scared to back Minshew against a strong Titans defense. It’s not easy for any unit playing on just 3 days of rest, but I think it’s really hard on the road team to play well defensively in these games.

There’s also nothing about the Tennessee offense that gets me excited. They are as conservative as anyone with all the running and short passes they use. A lot of people will point to the 43 points they scored at Cleveland in Week 1, but I don’t think that Brown’s defenses is as good as people think and the Titans only had 15 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.

Titans are not the team you want to be taking in this spot, as they are just 16-34-3 in their last 53 vs a team with a losing record. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a losing home record.

I know it’s early, but there’s a big difference in the locker room for teams that are 1-1 and teams that are 0-2. Jacksonville will be treating this like there season is on the line. Give me the Jags +2!

40* NCAAF HOU/TULANE ATS NO-BRAINER (Tulane -4.5) 

My early lean here would be to lay the points with Tulane at home. I just don’t think the betting public is responsible for the 2-2.5 point line move in favor of the Green Wave. While Houston comes in at 1-2, this is a program people are familiar with. They also got a big name head coach in Dana Holgorsen, a heisman contender in quarterback D’Eriq King and their two losses are both against ranked Power 5 teams.

As for Tulane, this is not a program that gets a lot of national attention and for good reason. Green Wave have posted just 3 winning seasons the last 10 years (40-83 overall). The thing is, they have been on the climb under 4th year head coach Willie Fritz.

Coming into the season this looked like it would be Fritz’s best team yet and it’s definitely looking like that. They have dominated in both wins and clearly are not a pushover if they are only losing by 18 on the road to a Auburn team that is now No. 8 in the country.

Tulane is really strong up front and that’s evident by the fact that they are 28th in the country in rushing at 235.0 ypg and 49th against the run (115.5 ypg). The stat that really stands out to me is they held Auburn to just 20 rushing yards in the first half (wore down in the 2nd half with the offense not being able to get much going).

I know the numbers are a bit skewed for Houston’s defense having played two really good offenses in Oklahoma and Washington State, but they offered zero resistance against Jalen Hurts and the Sooners offense and the Cougars had 498 yards despite a very sluggish 1st half.

Even in their win over Prairie View they only outgained the Panthers  380 to 318. The big thing to keep in mind is the defense wasn’t really expected to be great. They only had 4 starters back from a unit that gave up 45 ppg in the second half last year. Give me the Green Wave -5!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns -6.5) 

I maybe could have got to taking New York as a small home dog with Darnold, but no way am I putting my money on Trevor Siemian. Going back to 2016, out of all the quarterbacks with a 1,000 plays, he’s got the worst QBR out of all of them at 42.1. Just slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler at 46.1, Eli Manning at 47 and Blake Bortles at 48.6.

I think the Browns defense is going to make it really difficult on this Jets offense with Siemen under center. I have to think they are going to load the box to keep Bell in check and dare him to make plays down the field.

I also think Cleveland’s defense is a lot better than people might be thinking after they gave up 43 points to the Titans. That was a 15-13 game in the 3rd quarter before Tennessee’s Derrick Henry caught a 75-yard TD pass. Browns started pressing and gave up 21 points in the 4th.

As for Cleveland’s offense, the biggest thing people need to realize with that poor showing is they were going up against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were also 6th in the league vs the pass. I think the Browns thought it was going to be a lot easier than it turned out to be.

I think this is a good spot for the Browns offense to get back on track. I wouldn’t read anything into the Jets strong defensive game against the Bills. Buffalo’s offense looks to be every bit as anemic as it was in 2018. Jets defense should be improved, but you have to wonder how they can hold up with an offense that figures to struggle to score. Give me the Browns -6.5.

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Bears -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago bouncing back from that ugly showing in Week 1. Bears offense looked really bad in a 10-3 loss to the Packers, but I think people are really underestimating how good Green Bay is defensively this year. The game plan wasn't up to par and I don't see Matt Nagy and his staff laying another egg here. 

More than anything, this is no where close to the Broncos teams of years past. Denver still has Von Miller, but are not nearly as good in the secondary Derek Carr only had 4 incompletions and wasn't sacked once. 

I also did not like what I saw from Joe Flacco and that Denver offense. He made some really poor throws on what should have been easy completions. The offensive line is not great and they lack some serious playmakers at the skill positions. Chicago's defense will eat this offense up. Give me the Bears -2.5! 

50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago. 

I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here. 

Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5! 

40* NFL EASY MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Jaguars +9) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jags getting a big number against the Texans. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Jaguars ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and the fact they lost their starting quarterback in Foles. No way is the public going to want to back Jacksonville on the road and I feel the books are taking full advantage of that by posting an inflated number.

The biggest thing for me and the Jaguars lopsided loss to Kansas City, is I wasn’t the least bit surprised. The Chiefs were one of my favorite plays in Week 1. There’s not many teams in the NFL that can score with Kansas City. I’m not about to write off Jacksonville’s defense because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and all those weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, I still think it’s one of the more talented defensive units in the league.

I think that defense is going to have a big bounce back performance against the Texans. Clearly there’s still a lot of problems with the Houston offensive line if Watson is getting hit 11 times and sacked 6 times. While the Jags didn’t record a sack in Week 1, they put a ton of pressure on Mahomes. I think they can control the line of scrimmage and force some big turnovers with that pressure.

As for as the Foles injury is concerned, that’s a tough blow for this team. However, I watched that entire game and I was really impressed with what I saw from Gardner Minshew in relief. If wasn’t against a Chiefs defense that no one thinks highly of, I think people would be raving about how well this kid played in his first NFL action. I don’t care who it’s against, you are doing something right if you complete 22 of 25 for 275 against a defense that knows you have to throw playing from behind.

I get the Saints are great offensive team, but at the same time, this not as talented a defense without Clowney in the front seven. Not only did Brees carve them up for 370 yards and 2 scores, New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards/carry on the ground.

Best part about all of this is we don’t need the Jaguars to win. All they have to do is lose by single-digits and I think they do that without any problem.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +2)

I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a home dog against the Bills. Buffalo has no business being a road favorite here. The Bills pulled out a 17-16 win against the Jets in Week 1, but trailed 16-0 in the 3rd quarter before the Jets imploded. 

No way do I trust that Buffalo offense on the road. Josh Allen threw 2 picks and I'm not really sold on the Jets defense. Giants didn't look great in a 35-17 loss to the Cowboys, but Dallas looks like it has the goods this year. New York was also a lot more competitive than the final score, as they were only outgained by 24 yards and actually had 2 more first downs. 

Eli Manning played really well with 306 yards on 30 of 44 passing. If he keeps playing like that this offense is going to be just fine with how much teams have to respect the run game with Saquan Barkley. I think NY wins and wins big. Give me the Giants +2! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.

I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.

When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.

While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.

As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!

50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas Tech as a small road favorite against the Wildcats. I think people are sleeping on the Red Raiders. I just think people wrote this team off and there's nothing to get excited about with blowout wins over Montana St and UTEP. 

I know Kingsbury is coaching in the NFL, but I loved the hire of Matt Wells from Utah State. Wells climbed his way through the ranks on the offensive side and last year the Aggies averaged 47.5 ppg and 497 ypg. He brought both his OC and DC with him from Utah State. 

He's got great talent at QB in Alan Bowman and the defense has been outstanding. They only gave up 8 first downs to Montana State and just 11 to UTEP. That's the sign of a team that's locked in. 

Arizona lost to Hawaii and then got in a shootout with Northern Arizona. They gave up 595 yards to the Rainbow Warriors and 442 to the Lumberjacks. Texas Tech is going to score a ton. I'm banking on that defense to create more than enough separation for an easy cover. Take Texas Tech! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Virginia -7) 

I'm going to take my chances here with Virginia. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Florida State was going to be a much better team in 2019. I loved the over on their win total. With that said, I don't have the same feelings about this team after watching them in their first two games. 

They lost the opener at home to Boise State 36-31, blowing a 31-13 lead. Given the expectations with that Boise State team, that was considered an okay loss. Not so much after the Broncos barely beat Marshall at home the following week. Then came the shocking 45-44 OT win at home against ULM. 

I got major concerns with Florida State's defense. The same Boise State offene that had 407 yards and 38 first downs against the Seminoles, managed just 14 points on their home field. ULM had 419 yards and 26 first downs. 

Virginia's defense is too good to allow their offense to score at will. I just don't see Florida State being able to do enough against the Cavaliers defense, especially on the road in what is going to a hostile environment in a night game. Give me Virginia -7! 

40* NCAAF SMALL CONF ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (La Tech -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs laying just 10-points at Bowling Green. I think this is a much bigger mismatch than the number would suggest, but we are getting a good number because of how poor La Tech has looked in their first two. 

The Bulldogs fell 45-14 at Texas in Week 1, failing to cover as a 19-point dog. They then only won 20-14 at home against Grambling as a 30-point favorite. I think that loss to Texas looked a lot worse at the time, as a lot of people were thinking the Longhorns might be down with just 8 starters back. After watching how well Texas played against LSU, I think La Tech more than held their own. 

The close call to Grambling gets a pass in my book. Grambling is only 5-miles from the Bulldogs Campus in Ruston. Those games always mean more to the little-brother in those fights. I think the close call could actually work in our favor and have them more focused than they need to be to roll the Falcons. 

Bowling Green is bad. They just lost 52-0 to Kansas State and managed just 5 first downs and 140 total yards. Wildcats called off the dogs up 38-0 at the half. I think it says a lot the Falcons weren't able to even add some garbage yards and first downs late in that game. 

If K-State can put 52 points with only 14 in the 2nd half, I have to believe La Tech can score 40 here. I don't think the Falcons get much more than 20. Give me the Bulldogs -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (USC -3.5)

I'll take my chances here with USC laying less than a touchdown on the road against BYU. I was high on the Trojans coming into this season and upset I didn't trust them more last week against Stanford. I just didn't know what to expect from Slovis in his first start. 

The guy didn't disappoint with 377 yards and 3 scores on 28 of 33 passing. I get it will be tough to top that, but if he sniffs 300 yards with 2 TDs and completes 60%, that's still pretty damn good. USC has some stud WRs that I think BYU will have a hard time hanging with. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that offense should be more explosive under new OC Graham Harrell. He's one of the bright offensive minds in the game. Did some really impressive things in his 3 years at North Texas. 

I hear a lot of people wanting to fade USC right away after that big win over Stanford. I'd much rather stay on the train and roll the dice they keep covering. BYU has to be exhausted after an emotional opener against in-state rival Utah and then playing in that OT thriller at home against Tennessee, which they won 29-26. 

I get the Vols are a storied SEC program and were expected to be better, but let's not get carried away with BYU beating a team that lost on their home field to a Sun Belt team in Georgia State. Give me the Trojans -3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Indiana +17)

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers. Despite the fact that Indiana has lost 24 straight to the Buckeyes, they have consistently played them tougher than expected.

Last year they end up losing by 23 points, but it was a lot closer. Indiana had a 17-14 lead in the 2nd quarter and only trailed by 8 at the half and 9 at the end of 3 quarters.

It was a very similar type of game the last time they played in Bloomington (2017). Indiana had a 14-13 lead at the half and were up 21-20 with less than 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Buckeyes then go on a 29-0 run to win and cover. Note that's the only time Ohio State has covered in the last 8 meetings in the series.

This is the smallest the Buckeyes have been favored over Indiana since they were a 19-point favorite in 2012. Ohio State won by just 3-points in a 52-49 shootout.

I would like Indiana even more in this game if it was a little later kickoff. However, I'm still expecting a very rowdy home crowd backing the Hoosiers.

I also think there are some things here to be cautious with in Ohio State. This will be the Buckeyes first true road game of 2019. While Ohio State was 3-1 in true road games last year, but the lone loss was a 49-20 setback as a 12-point favorite at Purdue. They also only won by 1-point at Penn State and by just 1-point as a 14-point favorite at Maryland.

Another thing to note is that while FAU and Cincinnati are two well respected Group of 5 opponents, both might not be as good as we thought. The Owls got annihilated 48-14 by UCF at home in Week 2, while the Bearcats win over UCLA looked a lot less impressive after the Bruins fell 23-14 at home to San Diego State. Give me the Hoosiers +17!

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ATS SHOCKER (Kansas St +8.5)

I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 8.5-point dog here. I would the line close to a pick’em on a neutral site, which means I would have the Bulldogs around a 3.5 to 4-point home favorite. Big time value at this number. 

It’s not a surprise that Mississippi State is a bit overvalued early on in 2019. You got a lot of SEC bias and while they haven’t looked great in their first two games, people will only focus on the outcomes.

Kansas State on the other hand is a team that I feel is flying under the radar. Last time Snyder left the program it went to shit and the Wildcats were just 5-7 last year. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the offense and the defense is a lot better than people think.

New head coach Chris Klieman won 4 FCS National Championships in his 5 years as the head coach of the Bison. He's the real deal. 

I also like the revenge angle for the Wildcats. This is a game they definitely had circled on the schedule and they got nothing to look ahead to with a bye week on deck. Mississippi State on the other hand has their SEC opener on deck with Kentucky coming to down in Week 4.

Lastly, we have a great system backing a play on Kansas State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-15 (74%) ATS after scoring 42 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Give me the Wildcats +8.5!

50* NCAAF POWER 5 NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown. I just don’t think the Wolfpack are going to have much trouble here. I think we got a NC State team that was flying under the radar coming into the season against a West Virginia team that is a lot worse off than people think.

I definitely think this line would be closer to double-digits if NC State had a better win on their resume. People just aren’t going to get excited about the Wolfpack beating the likes of East Carolina and Western Carolina. I get it, but at the same time they dominated both of those teams.

A lot of people will be talking about their new playmakers on offense, but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the defense. They held East Carolina to just 269 yards and that’s a Pirates offense people were high on behind sophomore QB Holton Ahlers. Western Carolina managed just 106 yards and 6 first downs.

I think the Wolfpack defense could pitch a shutout here against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is averaging a mere 232 yards/game and 3.7 yards/play. Just to compare, NC State is averaging 522 yards/game and 6.7 yards/play.

I’m sure some are giving WVU a pass for how they looked against Missouri last week, but let’s not forget that the Tigers lost 37-31 at Wyoming in Week 1.

The big problem I see with the Mountaineers offense is their inability to run the ball. West Virginia has attempted 56 rushes in their first two games and have a mere 64 yards to account for it. That to me spells serious offensive line problems. Mountaineers will routinely be playing behind the chains, which means a lot of 3 and outs, settling for field goals and turnovers. Give me NC State -6.5

50* UNC/WAKE FOREST SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Wake Forest -3) 

I'll take my chances with Wake Forest. Betting public is all over the Tar Heels in this one, which only makes the Demon Deacons more.

I was really big on Wake Forest coming into this season and I’ve liked what I’ve seen, especially from the offense. The defense still needs some work, but they should definitely get a boost from what figures to a rowdy home crowd.

Another thing here is this will be the first true road game for UNC's true freshman Sam Howell and he’s going to have to handle the noise without senior starting center Nick Polino. I think that along with the spotlight of playing a weekday game on ESPN and we see a little bit of the true freshmen mistakes come out.

That wasn’t the only big injury suffered for UNC. The Tar Heels lost starting corner Patrice Rene. That really makes it tough on the UNC secondary against Wake’s playmakers on the outside

I also think you can’t overlook the edge Wake Forest has not only with an extra day of rest, but also the fact that they had a much easier game last week. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.

50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)

I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.

I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.

I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.

While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.

Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.

40* STEELERS/PAT SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Steelers +6)

I'll take my chances here with the Steelers to cover the 6 at New England. Note that I like this before the Pats added Antonio Brown. I like it even more after the news. The fact that Belichick and Brady got Brown has to absolutely piss off the Steelers. Keep in mind they blocked a trade with NE because they didn't want him to go a rival. I think it's a bit of a distraction for NE and more than anything, I like the talent the Steelers have on both sides of the ball. Give me Pittsburgh +6! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the 49ers at basically a pick'em at Tampa Bay. I really like Bruce Arians, but I'm not convinced he's going to have Tampa into a serious NFC contender in his first season. I don't trust Jameis Winston in the slightest with his decision making. As for the 49ers, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people realize. Jimmy G is a franchise QB and they got all kinds of first round talent on that defensive front. I think SF will be living in the Bucs backfield and could turn this into a blowout. Give me the 49ers +1.5! 

50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)

I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3! 

40* TITANS/BROWNS ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Browns -5.5)

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland winning by at least 6 at home against the Titans. I don't think this is going to be close at all. I get the Browns are getting a ton of hype, but for good reason. Tennessee just doesn't impress me that much and that offense looked horrific in the preseason. I don't see them coming out and lighting up this Browns defense, which I think is better than people realize. Give me the Browns -5.5! 

50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3) 

I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3! 

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME ACC GAME OF THE YEAR (Miami -5) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by at least a TD. I think we are getting exceptional value here with the Hurricanes. Miami had No. 8 Florida on the ropes in Week 0. This team wasn't ranked coming into the year and won't be after that loss, but I strongly believe they are a Top 25 team. 

I like what I saw from Jarren Williams at QB and the defense is going to be really good again. They forced the Gators into 4 turnovers. I like this team to bounce back in a big way against a North Carolina team that I think is getting too much respect after their upset of South Carolina. I was on the Tar Heels in that win, so I wasn't surprised by them winning that game. They really shouldn't have. They were down 11 going into the 4th quarter. I think the Canes roll. Give me Miami -5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulane +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Mean Green surprising a lot of people and keeping it closer than expected. I say surprise because I see close to 75% action on the Tigers in this one. Auburn had a great come from behind win in Week 1 over Oregon, but are now primed for a letdown after playing in arguably the biggest game of the week. 

Everyone is singing the praises of Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix for his game-winning TD throw. It was a great throw. However, I'm more focused on the overall product and I think it was so-so. Nix only completed 42% (13-31) of his passes, had just 177 yards and threw 2 picks. 

Tulane is a team to watch out for. Willie Fritz has done a tremendous job building up this program. They are now in year 4 and have all the key pieces to be a successful team. I couldn't have been more impressed with how they manhandled a Butch Davis coached FIU team in Week 1. They made the Panthers look like a JV team. This is their chance to shine and I think they catch the Tigers sleeping. Give me Tulane +17.5! 

50* NCAAF CONF-USA GAME OF THE MONTH (FIU -7.5)

I'll take my chances here with FIU winning by at least 8 at home against Western Kentucky. I was on the Panthers in their lopsided loss at Tulane and I clearly underestimated Willie Fritz's team. That loss isn't going to keep me from backing this team in this spot and I actually think we are getting value because of how bad they looked. 

FIU should be a much improved team this year. They got 16 returning starters from a 9-win team. They got a good experienced senior QB in James Morgan and a legit head coach in Butch Davis. This team beat WKU 38-17 on the road last year and the Hilltoppers don't look all that improved from their 3-win campaign, as they just lost at home to Central Arkansas. Give me FIU -7.5! 

40* NCAAF ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (South Florida +6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Bulls covering on the 6.5 at Georgia Tech. I'm actually shocked the Yellow Jackets are favored by this much. I get the USF loss to Wisconsin looks bad given the Bulls didn't score, but there's no doubt USF is better than that on the offensive side of the ball. They were just beat up in the trenches by a bigger Badgers team. 

Georgia Tech got rolled 52-14 at Clemson in Week 1 and that was with Trevor Lawrence not playing great. I also think the Tigers were holding back a lot in that game with Texas A&M on deck. That says a lot that it was that lopsided. 

More than anything here, there's every reason to think the Yellow Jackets are going to suck this year. They got bunch of players they recruited to play the option trying to learn and operate a pro-style offense. I not only think the Bulls cover, but win outright. Keep in mind USF beat Georgia Tech last year. Give me the Bulls +6.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Maryland -1.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Terps as a small home favorite against nationally ranked Syracuse. Any time you see a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, it's a pretty good indication the books are on to something. Since 2015 there have been 23 times in the regular-season that a team ranked 20th or lower was a dog against an unranked opponent. Those teams are a miserable 4-19 SU. That includes a mere 1-5 mark in the 6 times this came up last year.

Regardless of ranked vs unranked, I would like Maryland laying less than a field goal in this one. Terps are an afterthought playing in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. This team is more talented than their record suggest. Big thing that's been holding them back is consistent QB play. I think they will finally get that with Va Tech transfer Justin Jackson. 

I'm also not a big Syracuse believer. I think this team isn't as good as people think, especially this year without Eric Dungey at quarterback. Defense isn't great and I think we could see the Terps roll. Give me Maryland -1.5!  

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Missouri -13.5)

I'll take my chances here with Missouri bouncing back from that embarrassing Week 1 loss at Wyoming with a big win over West Virginia. Wyoming is a very well-coached team under Craig Bohl and I think Missouri went in thinking it was going to be an easy win. 

The good news is the offense looked good in the first game behind Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant. He went 31 of 48 for 423 yards and 2 scores. This team is going to put up points. I think they could light it up on the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia went into the 4th quarter tied 10-10 at home against FCS foe James Madison. People assume KU is the worst in the Big 12, but with Dana Holgorsen leaving and Les Miles joining the Jayhawks, that role may be reversed. The offense could only muster 294 yards and had a mere 34 rushing yards on 24 attempts (1.4 yards/carry). I think the Tigers have this covered by half and coast to a 20-point win. Give me Missouri -13.5! 

50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3) 

I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.

I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.

I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.

I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.

On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.

50* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Notre Dame -18)

I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish winning by at least 20. I'm not sure why, but this Irish team is not getting near the love you would expect for a Notre Dame team that returns a lot from a team that just ran the table ni the regular-season. 

They did get rolled by Clemson in the semi's, which I think had some wondering if they deserved a playoff bid. If you feel that way about the Irish, Alabama lost just as bad to the Tigers and they definitely deserved to be there. 

Ian Book is a legit quarterback and while Louisville's defense will be improved, they gave up 44.1 ppg and 484 ypg last year. I just don't know that the talent is there for a quick turnaround. A lot of people like new head coach Scott Satterfield from App St. He's good, but keep in mind he went 4-8 in his first year with the Mountaineers (47-16 after). 

I think the Cardinals will find themselves behind early and I just don't trust Jawon Pass to keep them in it. He only completed 54% of his attempts last year with a 8-12 TD-INT ratio, plus he's being forced to learn a whole new offenes. Give me Notre Dame -18! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -22.5)

Oklahoma has started out strong under Riley. In 2017 they put up 56 and covered as 43-point favorites in the opener over UTEP and Week 2 beat Ohio State 31-16 as a 7-point dog.

Last year a lot of people thought FAU had a shot of going into Norman and winning. People couldn’t help themselves but back the Owls at +20. Oklahoma led 56-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs and wrapping up a 63-14 win.

I think people are getting a little too caught up in comparing Hurts to both Mayfield and Murray. Will Hurts put up the passing numbers of those two? Probably not. The thing is, he’ll make up for it with his legs. I think because he was so bad in that 1st half against Georgia in the 2017 title game, people just don’t give him the respect he deserves. Guy got beat out by a future top NFL draft pick.

If anyone can make him great, it’s Riley and since he took over in 2015, Oklahoma has not averaged fewer than 43.5 ppg and 530 ypg (both of those in his first season with program).

I just rambled on about the offense, which is all everyone is talking about, but the real reason to be excited about the Sooners is the addition of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. If this team had any kind of defense the last two year, they probably win it all.

Grinch was the DC at Ohio State last year and at Washington State the 3 years prior. I think the public perception is that the Buckeyes underperformed defensively last year, but they only 5 starters back, there was outside drama and I just don’t know that the kids were 100% invested.

I look more at what Grinch was able to do at Washington State. He took over a defense that had 6 starters back from a unit that allowed 38.6 ppg and got them down to 27.7. They continued to improve each year and when he left they were giving up 25.8 ppg and 323 ypg. Oklahoma has 8 starters back and will be greatly improved on that side. I could definitely see them giving King struggles.

Houston’s defense only brings back 4 starters and lose a ton of talent. They are also learning a new scheme on that side of the ball. Hurts and the Sooners will score at will. Give me Oklahoma -22.5!

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC -13.5) 

I just think the books are giving Fresno State way too much respect here. At the same, this is the least hyped Trojans team that I can remember (all the Pac-12 hype is centered around Washington, Oregon and Utah).

Sometimes you gotta hit a bit of a rough patch to motivate you to greatness. I’m hoping some of that takes place at USC this year. Not making a bowl with the talent they had, had to be extremely humbling. I think it’s going to have the Trojans playing with a chip on their shoulder in 2019.

Even with a revenge game on deck against Stanford, I expect USC to be 100% locked in on not just beating Fresno State, but sending a message to everyone that they are going to be a player in the Pac-12 this year.

I really think we are going to see J.T. Daniels develop into a star this year. He definitely flashed that “it” factor you love to see in his first year, but he also looked a bit lost. I think he’s going to be a different dude and the hire of Harrell only furthers my confidence in him in 2019.

Harrell did a tremendous job developing Mason Fine in his 3 years as the OC at North Texas. Fine went from completing 59% with a 6-5 TD-INT ratio as a true freshmen (also Harrell’s first year), to completing 63% with 31-15 ratio as a sophomore and 65% with a 27-5 TD-INT ratio as a junior. Fine is already the Mean Green all-time leading passer. In his first year as OC at North Texas, Mean Green improved by 9.6 ppg and in year two he improved by another 10.7 ppg (from 15.2 ppg to 35.5 ppg).

I just don’t see Fresno State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. I don’t have the same excitement over the Bulldogs new OC in Ryan Grubb, who got promoted after being the o-line coach the last two years. You also have a first year starter in senior Jorge Reyna who has only played in limited garbage time and will be working behind an offensive line that lost 4 starters. Not to mention the loss of star wide out KeeSean Johnson, who had 95 catches for 1,340 yards and 8 scores.  Give me USC -13.5!

40* NCAAF AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -4) 

I just feel like that the Hokies are the more complete team and are flying a bit under the radar to start out 2019. You can see how much respect the books have for this team, given they were a 2-point home dog to the Eagles at the end of last year and are now laying points on the roads.

I get the excitement around the BC offense with all their playmakers back, but you never really know how it’s going to go when you change up the offense. Bajakian was a quarterback coach the last 4 years in the NFL (Bucs). He did serve as the OC at Tennessee in 2013 and 2014. However, the offense regressed by 12.4 ppg (36.2 ppg to 23.8 ppg) in his first year and got better by 6.3 ppg when he left (28.9 ppg to 35.2 ppg).

Needless to say, I’m not convinced the Eagles offense is going to be humming along to start the year. I also think they are matched up here against a talented and hungry Hokies defense that will be out to make a statement.

I also feel like Boston College’s defense is headed in the wrong direction. Eagles only return 3 starters from a unit that gave up over 400 ypg for the first time in 5 years. It’s been a decline every year in yards allowed since the great Don Brown left to be the DC at Michigan in 2015.

That first road game in conference play can be a challenge for a lot of teams, but Virginia Tech has thrived in this spot. Hokies are 13-2 in their last 15 ACC road openers. That includes a 24-3 win at Florida State to open last year. Va Tech easily covered as a 7-point dog. I think they win here by 10+ rather easily. Give me the Hokies -4!