40* NCAAB Late Night Total Crusher (OVER 148.5)

I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. The average combined score in Arizona State's 11 home games this season is 171.5, as the Sun Devils are scoring 90.0 ppg and allowing 81.5 ppg. No surprise the OVER is 8-2-1 in those 11 games. Cal is a strong defensive team, allowing just 63.1 ppg on the season, but aren't nearly as strong on the road, where they give up just under 70 ppg. Cal should have no problem scoring 75+ here against the Bears, in fact, I think both teams eclipse that mark, which puts us over the total. OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams at Arizona State. OVER is also 9-2 in the Sun Devils' 11 conference games and 10-3 this season when listed as a dog. Give me the OVER 148.5!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Annihilator (UNDER 216)

I'm expecting a lower-scoring game here between the Pacers and Cavs. For starters, we have two division rivals and that normally leads to a little more effort on the defensive side of the ball. Indiana has certainly been locked in on that side of the ball, as they are giving up just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and held OKC to a mere 90 points last time out. Cleveland comes in off a ridiculous high-scoring overtime game against the Wizards, where the two combined for 175 points. That type of game will be tough to bounce back from and I think we get a flat Cavaliers team tonight. Note that the UNDER is 9-3 in Cleveland's last 12 after allowing more than 125 points. UNDER is also 13-3 in the Cavs last 16 after 3 straight covers as a favorite and 15-4 in the Pacers last 19 home games after covering 2 of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (OVER 204)

I still think the books are treating the total here like it's the Heat team that started out 11-30 and not the one that enters this game having won 10 straight. Miami has scored 100+ in 9 of those 10 wins, eclipsing 116 or more in 3 of their last 4. They should keep trend going against the Timberwolves, who come in having allowed 100 or more points in 10 straight games. Minnesota's averaging 105.6 ppg at home and Miami's defense isn't nearly as good on the road and it's not like we need them to go crazy. I look for both teams to score 100+ and that should have this one finishing closer than 215 than 205. Give me the OVER!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 212)

I like the UNDER here on the total in the Thunder/Pacers matchup. Indiana has been playing really well of late and are locking down on defense the past few games. The Pacers have allowed 88, 97 and 84 over their last 3 and will be catching a tired OKC team that just played yesterday and are not nearly as potent offensive on the road, which is why the UNDER is 18-8-1 in their 27 road games this season. UNDER is 13-4 in the Thunder's last 17 road games off a home win and 12-4 in their last 16 as a road dog. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Pacers last 29 home games after playing a game at home and 30-9 in their last 39 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 216)

I think we are going to see a much lower scoring game than you might think. Toronto will once again be without DeRozan and Kyle Lowry is playing despite leaving yesterday's practice with an illness. Hard to imagine Lowry being at full strength here and I don't see him pushing the tempo either. This is a key game for the Raptors who have really struggled of late, but I just think they do just enough here to get a win. Hard to imagine Brooklyn being all that interested here and the early start time only adds more value to a sloppy game. Give me the UNDER 216!

40* NBA Late Night Total Crusher (Over 217)

I'm not expecting much defense to be played in this one, which should have these two flying over the total posted here. Phoenix has given up 120 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and 100+ in each of their last 12 overall. Sacramento had scored 109 or more in 5 straight before a 83-point showing at Houston in their last game. That poor showing against the Rockets was no surprise, as they were playing their 4th game in 5 nights all on the road. Kings have had two days off, so the offense should be back on track, but I don't see much effort on the defensive side of the ball with a much bigger game against the Warriors on tap for tomorrow. Give me the OVER 217!

50* NCAAB West Coast Game of the Month (Under 161)

There's a lot of bad defensive teams in the WCC and I think it has the offensive numbers a bit inflated for both of these teams, which in turn has created some great value here on the UNDER with this total in the 160's. These two teams aren't big fans of each other and both will bring the defensive intensity in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. Gonzaga is only giving up 61.4 ppg and BYU is allowing a modest 72.7 ppg. SO while both teams average 80+ ppg, I think this one stays in the low 150s. Give me the UNDER 161!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total No Brainer (Under 213)

I think the books have created some great value here on the UNDER in this one. San Antonio is a very workman like team and while the 76ers have been playing better of late this is a horrible spot for them. Not only will Philadelphia being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. On top of that, they are without their best player in Joel Embiid and another key contributor in Robert Covington. San Antonio is only giving up 97.8 ppg at home and I think given this spot, the 76ers could struggle to score 90. Spurs will also be resting Aldridge. Give me the UNDER 213!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 212)

I'm expecting a high-scoring affair that cruises past the total set here between the Magic and Pacers. Indiana is starting to turn the corner and play like the team everyone expected and a big part of it is the offense is clicking. The Pacers are averaging 109.4 ppg over their last 5. The problem with Indiana is their struggles on the road, and most of that is their defense, which is allowing 110.9 ppg away from home. The Magic are just as bad defensively, allowing 105.6 ppg on the season and are giving up 114.0 ppg over their last 5. I think both teams score 100+ easy in this one, which should have it finishing in the 220's. Give me the OVER 212!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 205)

These two teams played in Sacramento on 12/26 and the two teams combined for just 202 points with a total of 206. We get a slightly smaller number here in the rematch, but I think we also are going to see a much lower-scoring game. Both of these teams are in awful scheduling spots. The Kings are playing their 7th straight away from home on a 8-game road trip, in a span of just 11 days. Philadelphia is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are also playing their 7th game in 11 days. The 76ers have given up 120+ in their last two, but have been playing much better defensively of late and I expect a big effort here at home. Give me the UNDER 205!

40* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator (OVER 215)

I think we are getting some value here on this total and a big reason for that is the Nets come in off an awful offensive showing in a 86-112 loss at home to the Spurs. That was the game where San Antonio rested just about all their key players and that clearly had a negative impact on the motivation for the Nets. I expect a big bounce back performance from Brooklyn offensively, as they had scored 105 or more in each of their previous 5 games. I also expect the defense to continue to struggle, as they have allowed 100+ in 20 straight games. Miami is one of the better defensive teams, but I don't see them having a ton of energy on that side of the ball after their huge upset win at home over the Warriors. Give me the OVER 215!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (UNDER 205.5)

I'm expecting a high-scoring game here between the Bulls and Magic. Orlando comes in allowing 114.2 ppg over their last 5 and the Bulls aren't exactly locking down teams, especially bad teams on the road. Chicago can play good defense, but only when they want to. I don't see the Magic bringing out the best in the Bulls on that side of the ball. I look for both teams to be able to get up and down the floor and fly over this number. Give me the OVER 205.5!

40* NBA Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 204)

I think the UNDER is worth a look tonight when the Thunder visit the Jazz. Utah is one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.3 ppg (only giving up 93.3 ppg at home). I think the Jazz are going to take some pride here in shutting down Westbrook and OKC. It wouldn't be the first time this season, as Utah won 109-89 at home against the Thunder back on 12/14. That was the 5th straight game in the series that's been played at Utah and gone under the total. Give me the UNDER 204!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 215.5)

I cashed in on the Rockets/Warriors UNDER last night and I think there's value once again with the UNDER as Houston travels to Memphis on no rest and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Not to mention the emotional letdown of how poorly they played in last night's blowout loss to the Warriors. Houston will still try to get up and down the floor, it just won't be at the same pace and tired legs are a bad thing for a team that loves to take as many 3-pointers as Houston. Memphis got back to playing stingy defense in their last game, holding the Kings to just 91 points. Grizzlies aren't a team that loves to run and will also be playing on no rest. Give me the UNDER 215.5!

40* NCAAB Blockbuster Total Crusher (OVER 142)

The books have missed the mark on the total for this one. I'm expecting to see a lot of scoring here this afternoon when the Buffaloes take on the Cougars. Both of these teams are capable of putting up a big number offensively, but the real key is how these two struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Colorado is giving up 74.9 ppg on the road. Washington State is allowing 74.0 ppg. Last year the two regular season meetings both were high scoring, including a 169 points in a 88-81 Colorado win on 2/11/16. Give me the OVER 142!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 237.5)

I'm backing the UNDER in tonight's big showdown between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams played in Golden State back on 12/1 and combined for 159 points with a total of just 232.5. I believe that result has played into this number being even higher. What is getting overlooked, is that was a double-overtime game, where 33 of the points scored came after regulation. The two combined for just 126 in regulation. As good as these two teams are offensively, both can get after it defensively and I expect both to be locked in on that side of the ball tonight. Give me the UNDER 237.5! 

50* Eastern Conference Total of the Month (OVER 204)

I'm backing the OVER tonight when the Bulls and Hawks square off for the second time this season. In the first meeting this season, these two teams combined for 122 points in a 115-107 win for the Hawks at home. I see this one playing out about the same. Chicago's finally back to full strength and when they have had all their pieces, they have been a strong offensive team. We should also see Chicago pushing the pace here, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Atlanta didn't shoot well at all in their last game at Detroit, but the Hawks have been rolling offensively of late, scoring 100+ in 8 of their last 11 and 5 straight at home. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 against at team with a losing record and 6-1-1 in their last 8 off a game where they didn't cover. Give me the OVER 204! 

40* NBA No Doubt Total Crusher (Over 220)

I'm expecting a lot of scoring to take place tonight between the Knicks and Celtics. Boston has been a scoring machine here of late. The Celtics have scored 100+ points in 15 straight games and I see no way that streak coming to an end at home against a Knicks team that is giving up 110.8 ppg on the road. The key here is that Boston has also been allowing a lot of points during this stretch, as they haven't allowed fewer than 98 in their last 14 and are giving up 105.4 ppg in their last 5. New York can score and are putting up 104.4 ppg on the road and come in having scored 100+ in 3 straight. These two last played on Christmas Day and combined for 233 points. Give me the OVER 220!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 211.5)

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks tonight, as two of the leagues elite point guards square off in Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers come in clicking offensively and are averaging 108.2 ppg at home on the season. They should be able to eclipse that, as the Thunder are giving up 107.8 ppg on the road and don't figure to have a whole lot of energy in the tank on defense playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set and 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Offensively, as long as Westbrook is playing this team is going to look to push the pace. OKC has scored 103 or more in 6 of their last 7 games and are averaging 106.7 ppg on the season. OVER is 9-1 in the Clippers last 10 off a win by 10 or more. Give me the OVER 211.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 214.5)

I think we are seeing some value here with this total tonight between the Magic and Blazers. I think this total is a lot lower than it should be given Portland's last two games. The Blazers held the Lakers to 87 points on Tuesday, but that was more of LA just not shooting well (Lakers scored 30 points in the 2nd half after scoring 57 in the 1st half). They then held the Cavs to 86 with Cleveland shooting a mere 34.1% from the field. I believe it's more of bad shooting by their opponents than the Blazers figuring it out defensively, as this is a team that allows 110.3 ppg. I also don't think we get the same effort from Portland against a bad Magic team after the big win over the Cavs. OVER is 7-0 in Blazers last 7 after covering 2 or more consecutive games and 12-4 in their last 16 after a win by 10 or more points. Give me the OVER 214.5!

40* NBA Blockbuster Over/Under Total Crusher (OVER 217.5)

With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I don't expect to see a whole lot of effort on the defensive side of the ball. That should have this one going well past the posted number here. Boston comes in averaging 106.8 ppg, while the Wizards are scoring 105.3 ppg. Washington is allowing 107.5 ppg on the road and the Celtics are giving up 109.2 ppg over their last 5. OVER is 21-7 in the Wizards last 28 games when playing on 0 days rest and 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 when paying on 0 days rest. Give me the OVER 217.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 204.5)

I think we are seeing some great value here on the UNDER, which I feel is a bit high after the Mavs combined for 118 points in their last game against the Wizards at home. The Mavs are a team that likes to play at a much slower pace than the average (29th on the season) and rely on their defense. Phoenix is a team that is perceived as one that likes to run up and down the floor, focusing on offense and playing little defense. That was the case to start the year, but they come in having scored fewer than 100 points in 5 straight games and are have allowed 100 or less in 3 of their last 4. With the Suns playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights on the road, I don't see them changing it up and pushing the pace. Give me the UNDER 204.5! 

40* NBA No Doubt Total Annihilator (UNDER 200)

I think we are going to see a low-scoring game here as we have two teams that can play solid defense and both in a spot where they don't figure to be pushing the pace. Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the league, giving up just 95.1 ppg and will have a little extra focus on that side of the ball after giving up 115 at Boston last time out. Utah has allowed 100+ in back-to-back games just two times since the start of December. This will also be the Jazz's 3rd road game in 4 nights, so they will be looking to slow down the pace. Toronto also doesn't figure to have a ton of energy on the offensive side of the ball, as they figure to come out flat after a 6-game road trip. These two played in Utah back on 12/23 and the Raptors won 104-98, which sets up a great spot to back the UNDER, which is 8-1 in Utah's last 9 when revenging a home loss. Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 200.5)

I think the total here is way too high for this matchup. Dallas ranks dead last in the league in pace, as they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with most teams, so they look to rely on their defense to keep them in games. Key here is that the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and all 5 starters logged at least 33 minutes last night. Not only is Dallas going to try and keep Washington from getting out in transition, the tired legs of the Wizards will keep them from pushing the pace here. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-5 in the Mavs home games this season, as they are scoring just 95.7 ppg and allowing 97.9 ppg at home. UNDER is also 7-2 in Dallas' last 9 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games (Wizards 3-11 on the road). Give me the UNDER 200.5!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 211)

I'm going to to the UNDER in tonight's matchup between the Wolves/Thunder. We are getting some great value here with this big total, as the books don't adjust these totals as much as they should for these Christmas games. It's a big honor to be a part of one of these games and players lay it all on the line knowing everyone is watching. We get a max defensive effort from both sides. UNDER is also 6-2-1 in OKC's last 9 against a team with a losing record and 4-1 in the Timberwolves last 5 against a team with a winning record. Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA Situational Total Knockout (UNDER 206.5)

I'll gladly take the UNDER at this price with the Kings and Wolves tonight. Both teams are playing well at the moment and that should have both coming out with a lot of energy defensively in this one. Over recent years the Kings have been a high-scoring team that doesn't play a lot of defense, but that's starting to change. Sacramento has only topped 100-points once in their last 5 games and that was at home against an awful Portland defense. They have held 4 of their last 6 under 100 points. Minnesota is starting to figure things out under Thibodeau and just went into Atlanta and held the Hawks to 84 points. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace (both rank in bottom 10). Give me the UNDER 206.5!

40* NBA -Pistons/Bulls- No Doubt Total Annihilator (Under 196)

This has the feeling of a must-win game for these two Central Division rivals, as both come in off some ugly performances. The Pistons have lost 108-122 at Washington and 90-105 at home to the Pacers in their last 2 games, while Chicago has dropped 3 straight, the last two by double-digits and the most recent being a 69-95 embarrassing loss at home to the Bucks. I look for both of these teams to come out extremely motivated on the defensive side of the ball and both are very good on that side of the ball. Each ranks in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and bottom 10 in pace. Give me the UNDER 196!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 203.5)

I look for a low-scoring game tonight in this Southeast Division showdown between the Hawks and Magic. Both teams are going to be motivated in this one. Orlando will be looking to snap a 3-game losing streak, while the Hawks are trying to get things going back in the right direction after a miserable 1-10 stretch, which they have followed up with 2 straight wins coming into this one. The key here is that we have two teams that rank in the Top 11 in defensive efficiency and bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. UNDER is 6-0 in the Magic's last 6 road games against a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 home games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against a division opponent. Take the UNDER!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 211)

This is a clear flat spot for Golden State off that big game against the Clippers, but I don't feel good about backing the Jazz given their injury problems. Where I think the letdown is going to really show up is on the defensive side of the ball, as the Warriors went all out on that side of the ball in their last game. As for the offense, I think Golden State can't wait to get back on the floor. Steph Curry was just 7-16 from the field and 0-8 from 3-pt rang, Klay Thompson shot just 8-18 and Durant was a mere 5-17. I look for these 3 to go off tonight against a Jazz team that has allowed 100+ in 5 of their last 6. With the defensive intensity likely not there, at least like it was last night, Utah should be able to do enough damage here to push this total over the mark, as the Jazz have scored 100+ in 6 straight. Give me the OVER 211!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 200.5)

If you like offense, you are going to want to stay away from tonight's game between the Heat and Hawks. Both of these teams rank in the Top 15 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta sitting at #2 and Miami at #13. We should see a max effort here defensively from the Hawks, who are desperate to end a 7-game losing streak. They should have no problem doing just that against a depleted Heat team that will be without several key players here. Miami's only chance of keeping this game close is to slow this game way down and rely on their effort on the defensive side. Give me the UNDER 200.5!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 195)

This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Utah is clicking on the defensive end, having held the Nuggets to 83 points and the Hawks to 68 points in their last 2 games. The Jazz come in ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and dead last in pace. Minnesota also ranks in the bottom half of the league in pace and don't figure to be running up and down the floor here playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Timberwolves come in giving up 103.5 ppg on the season, but have held 3 of their last 5 opponents under 100 points. Utah has only scored 100+ points in 3 of their last 9 games and each of the last 5 in this series have seen fewer than 194 points. Give me the UNDER!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 201.5)

I think the value here is clearly on the UNDER. Dallas is limited offensively when they are healthy and even more so with the injuries to Nowitzki and Williams. The Mavericks have scored fewer than 90 points (3 times) more than they have eclipsed the 100-point mark (2 times). I know Boston comes in allowing 101.3 ppg, but the defense has been much better of late, as they are only giving up 97.3 ppg. I look for a strong effort here defensively after the defense cost them in a 105-106 loss at New Orleans last time out. It's also worth pointing out that Dallas is going to try and slow this game way down, as they come in ranked 29th in pace. The other key here is while the Mavs have struggled offensively, they are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. UNDER is 6-1 in Dallas' last 7 against the east and 8-2 in Boston's last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the UNDER 201.5!

40* NBA No Doubt Total Crusher (Under 203)

Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, so both figure to play at a slower pace than normal. Key here is the game is being played in Detroit and the Pistons are coming in off a day off. They should be able to control the pace more and are in the bottom 10 in pace. It's also worth pointing out that OKC is not the same offensive team on the road, as they are only averaging 94.7 ppg away from home. Detroit is even stronger defensively at home, where they are only giving up 85.0 ppg. I think there's a great chance neither team breaks 100 in this one, making this an easy play for me. Give me the UNDER 203!

40* Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 202)

I think the books have set the bar too high for this one. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Toronto is ranks 3rd in scoring defense and 7th in defensive efficiency, while Oklahoma City is 7th in scoring defense and 3rd in defensive efficiency. Toronto's not the same offensive team on the road as they are at home and the Thunder rank in the bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. UNDER is 8-2 dating back to last season in the Raptors last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-1 in OKC's 7 games this season. Give me the UNDER 202!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 196.5)

*Analysis Coming*

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 206)

The books have set the bar too high, as we have an early season rematch here between the Hawks and Wizards, who opened the season against each other in Atlanta. Adding even more value here is that this is a big game for both teams. Washington is fighting to avoid starting the season 0-3 and playing with revenge after letting one get away against the Hawks in the opener. Atlanta on the other hand will be motivated off an ugly home loss to the Lakers, where they only have themselves to blame with the effort they gave defensively in the 2nd half of that contest. Give me the UNDER 206!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 205.5) 

I believe we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in this one. Both of these teams have a renewed focus on the defensive side of the ball, but this number is more reflective of how they played on that side of the ball a year ago. Sacramento brought in Dave Joerger, who made a name for himself with Memphis and their tough defense and their play on defense got the attention of Greg Popovich when they hosted the Spurs on Thursday. Minnesota added Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach and he's considered one of the best defensive minds in the game. He wasn't happy with the Wolves play on that side of the ball in their opener and I expect a full out effort here from both teams, as they look to avoid losing two straight. Give me the UNDER 205.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 199.5)

I think the books have set the total too high here for this one. The addition of Thibodeau is going to do wonders for Minnesota's play on defense, something that kept them from being a serious threat last year. He's definitely got the talent to make that defense one of the better units in the league. The Timberwolves showed some of that new defensive mentality in the preseason and it's only going to intensify in the regular season. Memphis wasn't a great defensive team last year, but injuries had a lot to do with that. I look for them to get back to their bread and butter and try and grind out wins. The offense could be better once Parsons is back from injury, but it doesn't figure to be good out of the gates. Give me the UNDER 199.5! 

40* NBA Over/Under Total Crusher (Under 194.5) 

I like the value here with the Bucks/Hornets to go under the total set by the books. Charlotte returns their nucleus from last year, plus bring in Roy Hibbert and get back Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who are both strong on the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee had to trade for Tony Snell to fill the void of shooting guard Khris Middleton, last year's leading scorer. Snell is limited offensively, but he is an above average defender. I just don't think these teams are going to struggle offensively more times than not, especially the Bucks early on until Middleton returns. With the defensive intensity that comes with the season opener, I think we are going to see a low-scoring game here. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Total Crusher (Under 204.5) 

I think the total here has been set way too high by the books. The Knicks were not a good defensive team last year, but should be much improved on that side of the ball with the additions of Noah and Lee. Cleveland's offense also figures to be a bit sluggish in their first game, as their primary focus is on getting their rings and seeing the banner dropped. LeBron's teams also have a history of starting out slow. With that said, I think Cleveland is going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Knicks offense doesn't figure to be great early, as they are still trying to figure out how to play with each other. There's also a chance this game turns into a blowout in favor of the Cavs, which should also lead to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 204.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 208)

The last two games have gone OVER the total and I believe it's created some great value here on the UNDER in Game 7. These do or die games are typically lower-scoring than people expect, as there's a tremendous amount of pressure on both teams and the defensive intensity is at an all-time high. Cleveland did put up 108 in Game 5 at Golden State, but keep in mind that was with Green sidelined. James and Irving also played out of their minds, scoring 41 a piece and shooting over 60% from the field. I don't see those two matching that in Game 7. While the Cavs offense doesn't figure to be as good, their defense has been great over the last 4 games and I don't see that changing in this one. Give me the UNDER 208! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 207.5) 

I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Game 5 go over the total, as the loss of Draymond Green was going to tough for the Warriors to overcome on the defensive side of the ball. It definitely played a big role in James and Irving going off for a combined 82 points. I look for things to come a lot harder for Cleveland's 1-2 punch and the Cavs should play some pretty solid defense of their own at home. I see a very similar type of pace to Game 4 in Cleveland, which went under the same total of 207.5. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 204.5)

I know that each of the first two games in Golden State finished below the total set and 3 of the 4 have gone UNDER in the series, but without Draymond Green in the lineup for the Warriors in Game 5, I'm expecting a spark in scoring. Even without Green the Warriors have enough weapons offensively to score 100+. It's his defensive presence, most notably on James, that will hurt them. I Cleveland also seemed to figure out some things at home that are working on the offensive end. Give me the OVER 204.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 207) 

After going well below the total in the first two games, the Cavs and Warriors eclipsed the mark set of 206 in Game 3 with a 210 points. That was with Cleveland scoring 120 points. Golden State simply didn't show up to play and basically threw in the towel in the 2nd half of that contest. I look for a completely different Warriors team to take the floor after getting embarrassed by 30-points. Keep in mind they held Cleveland to just 89 points on 38.1% shooting in Game 1 and 77 points on 35.4% shooting in Game 2. The defensive intensity is going to be there for both teams tonight and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the lowest scoring game of the series so far. Either way the total is too high. Give me the UNDER 207! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (OVER 205)

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well below the total. As a result, oddsmakers have adjusted. The total for game 1 was 211.5 points, now it's just 205. The key here is we are getting a change of scenery with the series shifting to Cleveland. The Cavaliers were pathetic on offense in Golden State, but I look for them to come to life at home. Golden State's offense travels well and the defensive intensity for the Warriors isn't going to be as strong on the road, especially with a 2-0 lead in the series. Forget who will cover the spread. Give me the OVER 205! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 218) 

The UNDER is worth a look in tonight's highly anticipated Game 7 between the Thunder and Warriors. So far the UNDER has cashed in 4 of the 6 games. These two teams are very familiar with one another buy now and we know we are going to get a max effort here defensively. Golden State has adjusted and started playing a bigger lineup, which takes away from their offense. Add in the pressure of a Game 7 and the potential for Golden State to turn this into a blowout and I see big time value here with this high total. Give me the UNDER 218! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Dominator (OVER 196.5) 

Typically when we get this deep in a series the value is with the UNDER, but I don't believe that's the case at all in Game 6 tonight between the Raptors and Cavaliers. I know Cleveland struggled offensively in their two previous games in Toronto, but when locked in they have picked apart the Raptors defense. I look for the Cavs to have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark in this one and Toronto should provide enough here offensively playing at home to push this well over the mark set. Give me the OVER 196.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total No Brainer (UNDER 222)

I was on the OVER when it cashed in Game 3, but the value is now with the UNDER. This is arguably the biggest game of the series for both teams and that's going to lead to an all out effort on the defensive side of the floor. If the Warriors win, they take back control of the series. If the Thunder win, they have a commanding 3-1 lead, needing just 1 more win to advance to the Finals. Golden State isn't going to let OKC go off like they did in Game 3 and this one should be on line with Game 1 and 2, which saw 210 and 209 combined points. Give me the UNDER 222!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (OVER 220.5) 

Each of the first two games in the series have gone under the mark and we have seen the total drop considerably since Game 1 closed at 225. I believe that's created some value here on the OVER in Game 3, as the series shifts to OKC. The Warriors are going to get there's offensively and the Thunder should have a much easier time keeping pace on their home floor, where they are averaging 109.0 ppg on the season. OVER is 19-4 in the Warriors last 23 off a home win by 20 or more points and 8-2 in the Thunders last 10 after failing to cover their last game. Give me the OVER 220.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 198.5) 

Game 2 was fortunate to go UNDER the total and that's going to have most looking to take the OVER in Game 3, but I think this will be the lowest scoring game of the series. With Toronto down 0-2 and returning home for the first time in the series, we can expect the Raptors to lay everything on the line and that means all out defensive effort. Cleveland is due for a bad showing offensively and with complete control in the series, I look for the Cavs offense to stumble a bit here. At the same time, Cleveland seems to be locked in defensively in the postseason and I expect another strong effort from them on that side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 198.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (UNDER 199.5) 

The Cavaliers exploded for 123 points in Game 2, pushing the combined total well over the mark of  196. I believe that has created some great value here on the UNDER in Game, as the series shifts to Atlanta. Cleveland simply couldn't miss from the outside in Game 2, as they hit a NBA Playoff record 25 3-pointers. Over half the Cavs shots (45 of 87) were from long-distance and that's simply not a recipe for success, especially on the road. You also have to factor in that Atlanta is going to lay everything they have on the line defensively to avoid falling behind 0-3 in the series. I don't think Cleveland's defensive intensity will be lacking either. The Cavs are a team on a mission in the postseason. Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total No Brainer (UNDER 198.5) 

Game 1 of the Hawks/Cavs series went UNDER the total, as the two teams combined for 197 points. I expect an even lower scoring game in Game 2, as the Hawks know they have to slow down the tempo to have any chance of evening up the series at 1-1. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league when they want to be and now that they have an understand of what the other team wants to do offensively, I look for both offenses to struggle even more than they did in the series opener. UNDER is 10-1 in Cleveland's last 11 when playing only their 5th game in 14 or less days, 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points. Give me the UNDER 198.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Annihilator (UNDER 201.5) 

These two teams combined for just 171 points in Game 2 and I look for a similar low scoring contest in Game 3. The loss of Avery Bradley is big on the defensive end, but it's even bigger on the offensive end. Boston has shot 36.3% and 31.8% from the field in the first two games. Atlanta hasn't been much better at 40.7% and 39.0%. I look for the Celtics offensive woes to continue and with them down 0-2 in the series we can expect a max effort on the defensive side of the floor. Give me the UNDER 201.5! 

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 199.5)

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here between the Hornets and Heat in Game 1 of this opening round series. Both of these teams rank inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and are each in the bottom half of the league in pace. With the way teams turn up the intensity on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs, points are going to be hard to come by for both teams. It's also worth noting that 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams resulted in a combined score of 198 or less. Give me the UNDER 199.5! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 207.5) 

I'm expecting both teams to come out extremely motivated, as this is a statement game for both teams. There's a good chance that these two teams meet in the playoffs, so each will be looking to send the other a message. When Cleveland decides it wants to play, they can be a dominant defensive team and Atlanta has been playing exceptional on the defensive end for quite an extended stretch. The Hawks have held 5 straight opponents to 45% or worse from the field and are only giving up 97.6 ppg at home. UNDER is 17-7 in Cavs last 24 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-2 in Atlanta's last 9 at home and 4-0 in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 207.5!

40* NBA No-Doubt Total Annihilator (UNDER 202)

I'm not expecting either team to crack 100-points in this one, making this any easy play on the UNDER with the total sitting over 200. New York is really struggling on the offensive end right now, as they have scored 93, 91 and 89 over their last 3 games. That doesn't figure to get any better with Kristaps Porzingis not expected to play. New York may also be without point guard Jose Calderon. Brooklyn will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so the legs simply aren't going to be there on the jump shots and should also have them looking to slow down the pace. New York doesn't like to push the pace either, so possessions will be limited. Give me the UDNER 202! 

50* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Top Play (UNDER 209)

The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's matchup between the Pelicans and Nuggets. It's well known that New Orleans is missing basically their entire starting lineup and then some due to injuries. That's had a huge impact on their offensive production, as they are averaging a mere 93.0 ppg over their last 5, well below their season average of 102.6. Denver isn't a great defensive team, but I do expect them to play hard, as they continue to cling on to the slim hope that they can make the playoffs. At the same time, Denver figures to play at a much slower tempo than normal. The Nuggets are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I know this total has dropped quite a bit, but I still recommend the UNDER at the current line of 206.5 and will continue to recommend it unless noted here. Give me the UNDER 209! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 211) 

Both the Raptors and Thunder have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball coming into this game. Oklahoma City is allowing just 99.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Raptors are only giving up 97.0 ppg in their last 5. Both teams should bring the defensive intensity, given this is a big time matchup between two of the top teams in the league. UNDER is 15-5 in OKC's last 20 after scoring 110+ points in 3 straight games and 19-9 in their last 28 against the east. UNDER is 12-2 in the Raptors last 14 after a combined score of 105 or more in 2 straight games and 12-3 in their last 15 home games after 2 straight games where they made 9 or more 3-point shots. Give me the UNDER 211! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 214)

I don't see either team bringing the defensive intensity in this one. Washington comes in giving up 105.0 ppg on the road. I look for them to come out flat after a 2-day break and having to travel across the country for this matchup. Portland on the other hand will be returning home after a 6-game road trip and have a huge game on deck at Golden State. The Blazers have allowed 100+ in 10 of their last 12, including 116 or more in each of their last 3. OVER is 21-7 in the Wizards last 28 games when playing with 2 days of rest and 11-5 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 10-4 in the Blazers last 14 after a SU loss, 8-1 in their last 9 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the OVER 214! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 210) 

Portland scored just 93 points at Boston last time out and I look for the offensive struggles to continue. The Trail Blazers simply don't have any gas left in the tank, which is going to force them to play at a slower tempo than normal. Portland will be playing their 5th road game in the last 7 days. Keep in mind Toronto only gives up 96.6 ppg at home. I look for the intensity defensively to be there for both teams, which should have this going well below the mark. UNDER is 36-16 in the Raptors last 52 home ames with a total of 210 or more and 8-3 in the Blazers last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Give me the UNDER 210! 

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Month (UNDER 204) 

These two teams just played on 2/10, which the Hornets won 117-95 to send the game over the posted total of 201.5. Keep in mind that was the final game before the All-Star break for both teams and defense wasn't a priority with the long layoff on deck. Prior to giving up 114 in a loss to the Cavaliers last time out, Charlotte was allowing just 94.8 ppg over their previous 8 games. Indiana is a more than capable team defensively when they want to be and I'm confident the Pacers bring the intensity in this one. The average combined score in the Pacers last 93 games when revenging a home loss of 10 or more is 190.6. Give me the UNDER 204! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total CRUSHER (Nets/Suns OVER 208)

Both the Nets and Suns are simply playing out the season at this point, as the two combined have an overall record of 29-85. There's ZERO motivation here for either team to exert themselves on the defensive end and that should have this game flying over the total. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg and the Suns are even worse, giving up 107.4 ppg. Key here is both offenses are playing well at the moment. Nets are averaging 100.8 ppg over their last 5 and Phoenix is averaging 101.0 ppg over their last 5. Give me the OVER 208! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Pacers/Heat U 199) 

I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the total here. Both teams have scored 100+ points in each of their first two games back from the All-Star break and not one of their games saw a combined score less than the 199 total we see here. These two teams combined for 203 points in the  most recent meeting, but that game went into overtime. The total for that game was just 193.5 and was also played in Miami and keep in mind that both teams shot under 40% from the field. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days and the Heat potentially without Dwayne Wade (already missing Chis Bosh), I look for both offenses to struggle and this game to turn into a defensive showdown. UNDER is 38-15-1 in the Heat's last 54 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous game and 35-15-1 in their last 51 after they scored 100+ in their last game. Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA --Late Night TNT Total Crusher-- (UNDER 214) 

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that the Rockets have gone OVER the total in 6 straight games and this figuring to be a highly bet game in the second matchup of tonight's TNT double-header. Phoenix isn't exactly an opponent to get excited about playing and I just don't see the Rockets being all that motivated in this one. At the same time, the Suns are a limited offensive team right now with Bledsoe and Knight both out and know they can't get into a shootout with the Rockets. I look for Phoenix to bring the defensive intensity in a rare primetime home game on TNT. Keep in mind Phoenix has scored 100 or less in 4 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. Also, only 1 of those 9 games finished with more than the total set here and that was 216 points on the road against the 76ers. Give me the UNDER 214! 

50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pistons/Nets UNDER 202) 

I think we are seeing some great value here with this total. Detroit is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games against the Cavaliers (106-114) and Raptors (107-111), both of which resulted in losses. I look for the Pistons to come out with a different mentality on the defensive end in this one and they should have no problem keeping a mediocre at best Brooklyn offense in check. The Nets scored 103 against the Pelicans last time out, but that's only the 5th time in their last 15 games they have eclipsed the century mark (scored just 79 the previous game against Dallas). UNDEr is 18-4 in the Nets last 22 off a loss by 6 or less and 20-9 in the Pistons last 29 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Under 205) 

The Celtics and Magic just played in Boston on Friday and the two teams combined for 207 points, barely eclipsing the total of 205.5. Now they meet again in Orlando with a similar total of 205, which I feel is a big mistake by the books. I don't see the Celtics being as interested in this game after just beating Orlando, while I look for the Magic to come out as motivated as we have seen them all season. Both teams understand what the other is trying to do offensively and the more familiar an opponent is with a team the bigger the advantage for the defense. UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 home games after going over the total in their last game and 15-5 in their last 20 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Give me the UNDER 205! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Magic/Bucks UNDER 196.5) 

Orlando is a team that has continued to play hard despite their poor stretch here of late and are coming into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking overtime losses to the Hornets on Friday and Grizzlies last night. The Magic are a team that doesn't like to play fast as it is and simply won't have a choice but to slow the tempo way down given their tired legs. At the same time, I look for Milwaukee to come out with a strong defensive intensity at home after back-to-back losses on the road, but they too are limited offensively and like to play at a slow pace. UNDER is 23-9 in the Magic's last 32 road games after allowing 105 points. Give me the UNDER 196.5! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 206.5) 

The books have set the bar too high for today's total between the Nets and Thunder. Oklahoma City will be playing their 6th game in 10 days, so the energy isn't going to be there when it comes to pushing the pace. Brooklyn also isn't a team that gets opposing teams excited to play. I look for the Nets to come out motivated off an ugly 22-point home loss to the Jazz. Key here is that even with Brooklyn coming to play, they still have little to no chance of keeping this game close and simply don't have the offensive fire-power for this one to end up being a shootout. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Clippers/Knicks UNDER 205) 

I believe we are seeing an inflated total here in tonight's matchup between the Knicks and Clippers due to recent results. The Clippers have seen 3 straight games go well over 210 points and each of the Knicks last 2 have eclipsed 225. I just don't see that kind of pace being their for both teams. LA will be playing their 2nd straight on the road after last night's big game at Cleveland and New York has played 3 overtime periods in their last two games. This is a game both teams want to win. LA wants to rebound from a loss and the Knicks want to extend a 6-game home winning streak. It's also important to note that 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have ended with 191 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 205! 

50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (UNDER 203)

The Cavaliers played a huge game last night at San Antonio, which they lost 95-99. They now must go on the road to face the Rockets on no rest. It's a very similar scenario from a few weeks back when Cleveland had to play on no rest at Portland after playing the previous day at Golden State. That game against the Trail Blazers saw a combined 181 points in a 76-105 loss. I'm expecting a similar type of outcome tonight, as the Cavs simply won't have the energy needed to put up a big number offensively. It's also worth mentioning the Rockets have been playing better defense of late, allowing just 96.6 ppg over their last 5, compared to the 105.0 ppg they are giving up for the season. UNDER is 20-9 in Cleveland's last 29 as an underdog, 21-9 in their last 30 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and a perfect 11-0 after playing their previous contest against a Western Conference team. Give me the UNDER 203! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 200.5)

The Jazz have seen each of their last 3 games finish UNDER the total, including last night's game at Portland where the two teams combined for just 184 points with a total of 193. Utah's held each of their last 3 opponents under 100 points and a big reason for that is the return of star defensive center Rudy Gobert. I look for Utah to come out motivated off a loss on their home floor and the Kings to also bring the intensity off back-to-back losses. Utah is going to slow the pace way down and both teams aren't going to be looking to run playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. UNDER is 10-2 in Kings last 12 with a line of +3 to -3 and 4-1-1 in their last 6 off a double-digit loss. UNDER is also 22-8 in Utah's last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and 10-4 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread. Give me the UNDER 200.5! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 193.5)

Memphis comes into this game scoring 92.4 ppg and allowing just 91.2 ppg over their last 5. While I expect the defensive intensity to be there, the offense figures to struggle more than normal with both Mike Conley and Courtney Lee both out with injury. Boston is a strong offensive team, but are struggling of late. Celtics have lost 4 of 5 overall which is a good sign that we can expect max effort on the defensive end to get back in the win column. Give me the UNDER 193.5!

40* NBA --Situational Total Crusher-- (Over 206.5)

It's taken a little longer than some expected, but the Bulls are finally starting to look like the offensive juggernaut that many expected to see when Holberg took over as the head coach. Chicago has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games. The first time that has happened since 1995. I don't see the streak coming to an end against the Hawks, who are allowing 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and 100.5 ppg on the season. Key here is the Bulls aren't the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Chicago is allowing 103.8 ppg on the road and will be facing a very capable Atlanta offense that averages 102.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 206.5! 

50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pacers/Heat UNDER 193.5)

With this game being played on NBA TV, I'm expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity. Anytime Miami is playing at home you have to be thinking UNDER, as the Heat only score 97.2 ppg and allow just 95.4 ppg on the road. Indiana is a strong offensive team, but figure to struggle to reach their season average of 102.5 ppg. Big key here is the Pacers are getting after it defensively right now, allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season and combined for 177 and 179. Give me the UNDER 193.5! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (Over 204.5)

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game this afternoon between the Celtics and Nets. Each of the last 2 games in the series have seen a combined score of 112 or more. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in 10 straight games and the Celtics have scored 100+ in 6 of their last 7. Brooklyn also comes in averaging 104.6 ppg over their last 5. Over is (58-28) 67% over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more, where you have a team off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off a home loss. Give me the OVER 204.5! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 194.5)

I really like the value we are getting here with this total. Cleveland is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and will rely on their defense in this one. The Cavaliers are a tired team and will be playing their 4th straight on the road and 4th game overall in the last 5 days. Denver's offense will struggle here, as they are expected to be without leading scorer Danilo Gallinari and point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. I don't see either offense going off in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

50* NBA --Cavs/Warriors NBA Guaranteed Top Play-- (UNDER 210)

This has been arguably the most anticipated game of the regular season and I'm expecting both of these teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. All 6 games in the Finals last year finished with 208 or fewer points. We are simply seeing an inflated total here due to this being such a big game and the books inflated the total knowing the public will be all over the OVER. Both teams are also well-rested and that's been a strong indicator for both of these teams to go UNDER. In fact, the UNDER is 15-5 in Cleveland's last 20 road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is also 14-3 in Golden State's last 17 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. Give me the UNDER 210!

50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (Under 203)

Portland is expected to be without their top two scorers in this game, as Damian Lillard has been ruled out and C.J. McCollum is doubtful. These two combine for over 44 ppg, which is nearly half of the Blazers entire offensive output (101.4 ppg). I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively for this game to be high-enough scoring to eclipse this total. New Orleans should be able to jump out to an early lead and they will be more than happy to coast down the stretch of this game with a road game against Miami on Christmas coming up. Give me the UNDER 203! 

50* NBA --Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 196)

Whenever a quality team is coming off a blowout loss in their last game, more times than not that leads to an inspired defensive effort in their next contest. It just so happens that we have two teams facing off against each other in this spot. Toronto lost 90-106 at Indiana in their last contest, while the Hornets got embarrassed 98-113 at Orlando last time out. Look for both of these teams to bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball tonight and their season numbers definitely support this play. The Raptors are only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and the Hornets are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. Give me the UNDER 196! 

50* NBA -Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 202)

The Cavaliers turned in one of their best defensive efforts of the season in their last game, as they held the Magic to 76 points or 38.9% shooting. No surprise that this performance came in the return of defensive specialist Iman Shumpert. With Cleveland having had 3 full days of rest before this game and Boston off 2 days of rest, I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in a game that will be televised on NBATV. Keep in mind that 7 of the last 11 in the series have gone UNDER the total. We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 39-14 (74%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more with a team off an upset win as underdog against an opponent off a road win by 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 202! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 202)

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that the Clippers come into this game having scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. The key thing to keep in mind with this stretch is 5 of those 6 games came at home and the lone road game came against a poor defensive team in the Timberwolves. Milwaukee has won 4 straight at home and during this stretch have allowed 88, 74, 91 and 88 points. The Bucks only average 95.5 ppg offensively and know they can't get into a shootout with the Clippers, so look for them to slow this game way down. You also have to factor in that LA has a nationally televised game against the Bulls on TNT tomorrow, so they aren't going to want to waste their energy against a team like Milwaukee. Give me the UNDER 202! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 198)

Orlando comes into this game off a 101-103 loss at the Clippers, which snapped a streak of 5 straight games where they had allowed 95 or fewer points. The Nuggets have won 2 straight with a 106-105 win at Toronto and 108-105 win at Philadelphia. Prior to those two games Denver had allowed 99 or fewer in 4 straight and scored 94 or less in 5 consecutive games. I believe we are seeing an inflated total based on the recent performances of these two teams. UNDER is 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 road games off a close loss by 3-points or less and 24-9 in the Nuggets last 33 games in the month of December. Give me the UNDER 198! 

50* NBA --Eastern Conf Total of the Month-- (UNDER 193)

I'm expecting a very low-scoring matchup tonight between these two Central Division rivals. The Bucks come into this game off an ugly 70-95 loss at San Antonio. That should have Milwaukee highly motivated to bounce back and that's now 3 straight games where they have allowed 95 or fewer points. Detroit is coming in off a 127-122 overtime win at home against the Suns, which followed a 116-105 win at home against the Rockets. Those two results are a big reason we are seeing a total as high as we are. Even with those outcomes, Detroit is only giving up 97.9 ppg and scoring 98.2 ppg. The Bucks only average 95.3 ppg and just 90.5 ppg on the road. UNDER is 19-7 in Pistons last 26 home games after playing 2 straight games where both teams scored 100+ points. Average final score in these games have been 189.8. Give me the UNDER 193! 

40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 202.5)

The Pistons are coming off a 116-105 home win over the Rockets in their last game and I believe that has the total inflated here. Even with Detroit allowing 105 to Houston, they are still giving up just 93.9 ppg at home. I look for their defense to be on point tonight against the Suns, who are coming in off a 91-point effort last night at Brooklyn. Phoenix won't be looking to push the tempo like normal playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. It's also worth noting that these two teams combined for just 192 points in Phoenix back on 11/6 and that was with a 58-52 second half surge. UNDER is 13-4 in the Suns last 17 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 and 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 with a total set at 200 to 209.5. Give me the UNDER 202.5! 

50* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 190)

The Spurs have seen the under go 11-5-1 in their 17 games so far this season and 5-1 in their last 6 overall. The Bulls have seen the under go 11-3 in their 14 games with each of the last 6 finishing under the mark. San Antonio is allowing just 89.7 ppg and have not given up more than 90 points in 5 straight. The Bulls are allowing just 95.7 ppg at home and really seem to pick up their intensity at home when facing a quality opponent. Their 3 biggest home games to day have been against the Cavs, Thunder and Pacers, all 3 of which finished UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 190! 

50* NBA --Eastern Conf Total of the Month-- (UNDER 196)

I think we are going to see a very low-scoring game here between the Knicks and Magic. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. Orlando comes in at 42.7% on the season and the Knicks are even worse at 41.5%. I also look for both teams to come out motivated defensively after a blowout loss. New York lost 78-95 at Miami in their last game, while the Magic fell 103-117 at Cleveland. Out of the 4 meetings last year, 3 finished with 182 or less points, with the highest output in Orlando being 172. UNDER is 47-18 (72%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the home team is off a loss by 10 or more points and road team off a loss by 15 or more. Give me the UNDER 196! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 201.5)

The Bulls come into this game averaging 100.5 ppg with an even better 103.7 clip on the road. While Chicago's offense has put up more points away from home, so has their defense. The Bulls are giving up 103.2 ppg on the road and will be facing a Portland team that averages 103.8 ppg at home and gives up 102.5 ppg. Both these teams like to play with a lot of tempo and the Bulls will be full go after a much-needed 3-day break. OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland and 11-4-1 in the last 16 overall. OVER is 6-2 in Blazers last 8 vs the Eastern Conference and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Give me the OVER 201.5! 

40* NBA --No Doubt Total Crusher-- (Over 214)

I have no problem backing the over with this high total in tonight's game between the Rockets and Kings. Both Houston and Sacramento have been awful defensively to start the season. The Rockets are giving up 112.0 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 50.4% from the field, while the Kings are giving up 109.0 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 48.7% from the field. The fewest points either of these teams have allowed this season 103. Adding value is the OVER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. Give me the OVER 214! 

50* NBA --No Doubt Total Top Play-- (OVER 202)

The Celtics are coming off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for just 182 points and the Pacers playing last night against the Pistons in a game where 176 points were scored, which raises a big red-flag when you see a total for this matchup at 202. The books are basically telling you that this will be a much-higher scoring game than expected an I agree with them. Indiana's defense wasn't very good in their first 3 games and they really got after it last night to get their first win of the season. I look for them to relax on that side of the ball in the second game of a back-to-back set. Boston had scored 100+ in each of their first two before shooting 35.7% against San Antonio. They come in off 2 days rest and will be looking to push the tempo. Give me the OVER 202! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Dominator-- (Over 207.5)

Neither of these are any good and I just don't see either side playing with much energy on the defensive side of the ball. Denver is dealing with some key injuries inside that will limit their defense and the Lakers are a team that can score the basketball, as they come in averaging 106.0 ppg, despite only shooting 40.1% from the field. At the same time, Los Angeles is vulnerable on defense, as they are allowing 115.7 ppg and opposing teams are making 48.0% of their attempts. Denver's offense is poised for a big showing here and I see both teams eclipsing the century mark without much problem. Give me the OVER 207.5! 

40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (Over 197.5)

The Hawks lost a huge part of their defense when Carroll left in free agency to sign with the Raptors and right out of the gate we see this team allow an uncharacteristic 106 points at home in a 94-106 loss to the Pistons. Atlanta managed 94 points despite an awful shooting night from behind the 3-point line. This is still a very talented Hawks offense and one that will be ready to go off that loss. The Knicks are a much-improved team, especially offensively. They are playing at a much faster pace and it showed with their 122-points on 93 attempts in a blowout win at Milwaukee last night. Atlanta will gladly turn this into a shootout and the pace here should have this one finishing well over the mark set. Give me the OVER 197.5! 

40* NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR*

Game 1 would have went UNDER the total had it not been for overtime. With the Cavaliers now without Irving, there only hope is going to be to bear down defensively and hope James can be special offensively. The key here is Cleveland can't get into a shootout against the Warriors and I look for them to slow the tempo way down with James running a lot of isolation plays in the halfcourt. I just don't see there being enough possessions given how good these two teams are defensively for this one to go over the mark. Pound the UNDER 202!

40* NBA FINALS *TOTAL DOMINATOR*

I look for nerves to play a big factor here in Game 1, as most of the players on these two rosters have never experienced the adrenaline that comes with playing in the NBA Finals. I believe it's going to lead to some sloppy play offensively and guys missing some shots they normally would make. However, that extra energy should payoff defensively. Golden State is one of the most efficient defensive teams and have the DPOY in Green to matchup against James. On the flip side, the Cavs are playing extremely well defensively right now. Roll the UNDER 204!

50* NBA PLAYOFFS *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* TOTAL

Big Game 3 with a chance for the Rockets to win their first game of the series or the Warriors to go up 3-0. Expect another strong defensive effort out of both teams. Golden State's offense isn't quite as potent on the road, while the Rockets defense is significantly better on their home court. Roll the UNDER 214.5!

40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL CRUSHER*

Atlanta has had a full 4 days of rest since closing out the Wizards and the Cavaliers have enjoyed 5 days off since finishing off the Bulls. With fresh legs and two explosive offensive teams, I look for Game 1 to fly over the total posted of 197. One of the big keys here is the extra time off should prove to be huge for Irving, who was really limited against Chicago. You also have to keep in mind that each of the 4 meetings during the regular season featured at least 205 points with both meetings in Atlanta reaching at least 210. Roll the OVER 197!

40* NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR*

All 5 games so far in the series have finished UNDER the total with 188 being the highest scoring game to this point. I look for the streak to continue. Memphis is a defensive-minded team and know there only hope is to grind out a win in a low-scoring game. Facing elimination and getting Allen back in the lineup, should have the Grizzlies locked in defensively. The problem for Memphis is they can't score enough even when their D plays well. The Grizzlies offensive output continues to falter as the series progresses and I don't see the Warriors letting up on that side of the ball with a chance to advance to the conference finals. Roll the UNDER 194!

40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL DOMINATOR*

Theses two teams flew over the total in Game 5, combining for 207 points in Cleveland. I don't think we are going to see anywhere close to that kinda of scoring output in Game 6 at Chicago. The last time these two teams played in Chicago, they combined for just 170 points. The Bulls season is on the line and this is a team that defines itself on the defensive end. Chicago is going to bring every ounce of energy they have on that side of the ball. Cleveland's focus could be lacking, knowing they have a game to spare and get the all-important Game 7 at home. Bulls intensity defensively and their inability to score consistently on offense, should have this one going well below the mark. Roll the UNDER 192!

40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL DOMINATOR*

The books continue to set the total too high for these two teams. Each of the first four games in the series have seen a combined score of 188 or less points. I don't see any reason why that trend will come to an end in the all important Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Memphis had done an outstanding job defending the 3-point line in the series before allowing the Warriors to go 14 of 33 (42%) from long distance in Game 4. Even with that hot shooting from the outside, Golden State still only managed 101 points. Roll the UNDER 195.5!

40* NBA *TOTAL KNOCKOUT*

I believe we are in for the lowest scoring output of the series. These two teams combined for just 191 in Game 1 and 197 in Game 2 at Cleveland. Chicago simply didn't show up defensively in Game 2 and yet that still almost finished under the mark. With the series shifting to Chicago, I look for a huge defensive effort here from the Bulls. On top of that, I look for the Cavs roll players to cool off from long-distance on the road. Keep in mind Cleveland hit a ridiculous 12 of 26 (46%) from behind the 3-point line in Game 2 (only 7 of 26, 27% in Game 1). Roll the UNDER 195.5!

40* NBA PLAYOFFS *LINE MISTAKE*

I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction here to the fact that these two teams combined for 218 points in Game 2. You have to keep in mind that 30 of those points came in overtime, as the two only combined for 188 in regulation. They only combined for 199 in Game 1. Series tend to get lower scoring as the progress and I especially think that will be the case with this one being locked up at 1-1 and the Spurs more than likely having to slow the pace down with Parker at less than 100%. Roll the UNDER 203!