40* NCAAB FINAL FOUR TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 155) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in the Final 4 matchup between Villanova and Kansas. There's no denying that these are two great offensive teams. The Wildcats are averaging 86.6 ppg on the season and the Jayhawks aren't far behind at 81.4 ppg. Kansas' last game against Duke ended up with a 85-81 final, but that game went to OT after the two were tied at 72-72 at the end of regulation. I think Duke is every bit as good, if not better, offensively than Villanova and I just think  the number here is way too high given how much pressure is on both teams, how good both teams are defensively and the week each team has had to prepare for the other side. Give me the UNDER 155! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197)

My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5) 

My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. I'm expecting this game between the Blazers and Thunder to have a playoff-like atmosphere, as there's a lot at stake for both sides. Right now the Blazers own the No. 3 spot in the West, but they hold a slim 1-game edge over Oklahoma City. Keep in mind that Portland is just 3.5-games ahead of 8th place Utah. Given what is at stake, I think both sides will bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that both teams are playing well on that side coming in, as each is giving up right around 103.5 ppg over their last 5 contests. This is also a division game and the average combined score for both teams in division games this year have been right around 207 points. I think we see a final score close to that, making this an easy play for me given the price. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 212.5) 

The Hawks come in off a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as a 13.5-point dog, but that was more of the Jazz not showing up to play. What gets lost in the win is how bad the Hawks were offensively, though it shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the 8th time in their last 9 road games that they failed to score more than 100 points. It hasn't been going much better offensively for the Kings, who have scored 98 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. I know the defenses aren't great here, but I just feel this total is way too high given the lack of talent both teams have offensively. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (OVER 217) 

Two of the NBA's worst will face off tonight when the Knicks host the Bulls. Both teams are in tank mode and it would do them a lot better in the long-run to lose this game rather than win. I don't think either team will have any interest in playing any defense and these aren't great defensive teams to start with. Each of Chicago's last 4 games have seen at least 218 combined points and 4 of the Knicks last 5 have seen at least 125 points. Give me the OVER 217! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 130.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER in this one. These are two teams that have made it this far in large part because of how good they are defensively. Loyola-Chicago ranks in the Top 50 in both 2-point and 3-point percentages allowed and combine that with a very methodical pace that just makes it hard for the other team to get in any kinda of rhythm. They allowed Miami to shoot 50% in the first round, but the Hurricanes only finished with 62 points. Tennessee on the other hand is an elite defense that isn't just a result of playing in the SEC. It's really carried them, as they are not a great shooting team. Look for both offenses to really struggle to get open looks and with a slow pace of play, this should might struggle to hit 120. Take the UNDER 130.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 159.5)

I'll take my chance with Friday's game between North Carolina and Lipscomb going over the mark here set by the books. I know this is a high-total and tournament games can be low-scoring, but I just feel the matchup and most importantly the pace will have this one flying past the number. The only way to slow down this potent Tar Heels offensive attack is to slow the game down and make them beat you in the half-court. That's not how the Bisons are built to play. Lipscomb wants to try and beat teams with their frantic up-tempo attack and aren't going to change their ways for this game. Keep in mind that UNC put up 90+ on 5 different occasions inside ACC play and are capable of hanging 100 on the Bisons if they get hot from the outside. Lipscomb scored 100+ in 3 games this season, including 108 in the Atlantic Sun title game over Florida Gulf Coast. Give me the OVER 159.5! 

50* WEST REGION SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 143) 

My money is on Thursday's game between San Diego State and Houston finishing under the mark set here by the books. Both of these teams are built around their defense. Only Cincinnati posted a better defensive efficiency in the AAC than the Cougars. Houston not only plays great defense, but they do an excellent job of limiting second-chance points. That's going to make it tough for San Diego State to score. The Aztecs were the best defensive team in the MWC, thanks in large part to their length. All that size is great, but if you can play good defense like Houston does, you can make it really hard on San Diego State to score, as they aren't a great 3-point shooting team. I just think this is the ideal recipe for a low-scoring grind it out type of game and we are getting a great price to back the under here. Give me the UNDER 143! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 138)

I don't like to play a ton of OVERS in the first round, but I just feel the price is more than right to gamble with the OVER in Thursday's game between Texas Tech and Stephen F. Austin. While both of these teams play good defense, they also both create a lot of turnovers and love to push the pace. The Lumberjacks know they aren't going to beat the Red Raiders in a half-court game and will do everything they can to speed up the pace. Note that Stephen F. Austin played 3 Power 5 opponents in non-conference play. Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri. All 3 of those games saw a combined 155 or more points with all 3 Power 5 schools scoring at least 80 points. My numbers have this finishing closer to 150 than 140, so there's plenty of wiggle room to work with. Give me the OVER 138!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 205.5) 

My money is on a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting in tonight's NBA action between the Celtics and Wizards. Boston will basically have their "B" squad out there for this one, as Irving, Smart and Brown are all out for this game and Horford could be added to the list before tip-off. Without Irving this Celtics team just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to explode offensively. What this team will do is get after it on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is coming off a up-tempo game last night against the Timberwolves, where the two teams combined for 127 points. I just don't see the pace being their for the Wizards in this one, as they not only are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but they are also playing their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the UNDER 205.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 226)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER in this one. Orlando scored just 80-points in their last game, but shot a miserable 34.1% from the field. Prior to that they had scored 100+ in 12 straight games. I think they are in a prime spot to bounce back offensively against a Lakers team that has given up 100+ in 9 straight. In LA's last game they combined for 211 points with the Blazers and that was with the Lakers shooting just 39.5% from the field and Portland hitting on just 42.2% of their attempts. Prior to that LA had scored at least 111 points 8 straight games. I also think both of these teams being out of the playoff race will have both sides not 100% invested defensively in this one. Give me the OVER 226! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Washington and Oregon State going over the mark set here by the books. These two teams combined for 191 points in early February at Oregon State. While the rematch at Washington wasn't as high-scoring, they still combined to put up 156 points. Both teams shot 50% or better from the field in both games. Note the total was right around this same number in both of those games. The books simply aren't willing to budge on their numbers and I think that's a mistake given what we have seen. Give me the OVER 139! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 215)

I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's showdown between the Hornets and 76ers going UNDER the mark set by the books. Charlotte is trying to make a late season push for one of the final playoff spots in the east. They looked well on their way with 4 straight wins out of the break, but have since dropped 3 straight. All of those were on the road, including a 99-110 loss at Philadelphia last Friday. The Hornets were in a great position to win that game before collapsing in the 2nd half and should be extremely motivated here for revenge. As for the 76ers, I also think they come out extremely motivated off a loss at Milwaukee. The defensive intensity should be there for both sides and keep this well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 215! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jazz and Magic finishing below the mark set by the books. I think the fact that Orlando has scored and allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games has this total higher than it should be. The Jazz are not only one of the better defensive teams in the league, but they also like to grind it out and slow down the pace. I don't see the Magic dictating the tempo here on the road. At the same time, I think Orlando's defense can hold their own in this game. Utah has been brutal offensively of late, averaging a mere 95.4 ppg over their last 5 games. Give me the UNDER 207! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (UNDER 145)

I'll gladly take my chances here with this huge C-USA showdown between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky going under the mark set by the books. This game figures to decide the C-USA regular-season title, as just 1-game separates the two teams. The Blue Raiders won the first meeting at Western Kentucky 66-62, as the two combined for a mere 128 points with a total of 140. Given what's at stake and just how good these two teams are defensively, I think we see a very similar scoring output as the last meeting. Give me the UNDER 145! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5)

My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 218.5)

My money is on Monday's NBA total for the Raptors/Pistons game going UNDER the mark set here by the books. I think we are going to see a spirited effort from both teams on the defensive side here. Detroit just allowed 114 in a 16-point loss at Charlotte and head coach Stan Van Gundy called out his team for their lack of effort on defense. As for the Raptors, they just suffered a rare home loss (24-5 at home this season) to the Bucks in their first game out of the break and it was their defense that was to blame. Toronto put up a solid 119 points, but allowed the Bucks to score 122. Given how good the Raptors have been defensively this year (ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency), I think they make life miserable for the Pistons here and keep this well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 221.5)

Since the Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season ending injury they have really looked to push the tempo to make up for his absence. In the 11 games since Cousins went down, New Orleans leads the league in pace of play at 105.4. No surprise that the Warriors are second, but Golden State is at just 102.8. That 2.6 difference is impressive as that's the same margin of gap that separates the Warriors from the 10th fastest pace during this stretch. They come in absolutely on fire averaging 129.8 ppg during a 4-game winning streak. Milwaukee has allowed 134 and 119 in their last 2 games. The Bucks are also clicking offensively, as they are averaging over 120 in their last 2 games. I think we could see this get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Saturday's Atlantic Division showdown between the Celtics and Knicks staying under the mark set here by the books. These two teams have already played 3 times this season and all 3 have been low scoring, with each finishing with 199 or fewer points. I see now reason that trend won't continue. The Celtics weren't exactly locked in defensively going into the All-Star break, but came out and held the Pistons to just 43% shooting on the road in their first game back and now face a Knicks team that is averaging just 97.1 ppg in their last 9 games. A stretch in which they have shot 44% or worse from the field 7 times. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 212)

These are two of the bottom-feeders in the east and I have a hard time seeing either of these teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game out of the break. Keep in mind these two teams aren't good defensive teams to start with. New York is giving up 109 ppg on the road and allowed 112.6 ppg over their final 5 games before the break. Orlando is giving up 110 ppg on the season. I'm also expecting a fast tempo here from both teams, which should have this one flying over the number. Give me the OVER 212! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214.5)

I'll take my chances with this one going OVER the mark set by the books. I think Charlotte is a sneaky good offensive team and the Hornets come in averaging 107.2 ppg at home this season. They shouldn't have any problem getting that offense going against the Nets, who are allowing 109.9 ppg on the road and I wouldn't be surprised if they struggled to bring the defensive intensity out of the break. As far as the offense is concerned, Brooklyn can put up some points and with Russell now back in the starting lineup, we should see an uptick in their scoring. Charlotte not exactly a great defensive team either, as they give up 106.5 ppg at home and went into the break allowing 112.2 ppg over their final 5 contests. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 157)

I think we see this one fly past the number set here by the books. On one side you have an NC State team that is loaded with scoring options at all 5 positions. Last time out they hung 90 on the road against Wake Forest and come in averaging 87.4 ppg at home this season. BC has scored 80 or more in 4 of their last 6 games, so this is definitely a team that can get it going offensively as well, in large part because they have two of the best guards in the conference. I think they reach that mark tonight against a very poor NC State defense that is giving up 78.4 ppg in ACC play. They are also 7-2 to the OVER at home this season, while the OVER is 9-4-1 in the Eagles 13 conference games. Give me the OVER 157! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 141) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Monday's Notre Dame/Miami matchup going UNDER the total here of 141. Both of these teams expected to be sitting better than they are at this point in the season, but each has struggled to cope with the loss of one of their best players. For Miami they lost Bruce Brown. Notre Dame not only lost an NBA talent in Bonzie Colson, but they are also without star freshman D.J. Harvey. Both teams are on the fringe of being considered for the NCAA Tournament and both desperately need this game. I think that will have the defensive intensity all the way up and with Miami's recent shooting struggles and Notre Dame's methodical pace, this game will stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB PRIME TIME TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 156)

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fire-works to push this total well OVER the mark set here by the books. North Carolina comes in having won 4 straight and have scored 82 or more points in all 4 games during this stretch. Louisville has looked great defensively in their last 2 games, but that's come against two of the bottom feeders in the ACC in Georgia Tech and Pitt. The defense hasn't been nearly as good when they have been matchup up with one of the top teams in the ACC. The other key here is pace. Louisville averages just 15.7 seconds of possession when they have the ball, which is the least of any team in the ACC and UNC isn't far behind with the 3rd best mark at 16.4 seconds. Give me the OVER 156! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 145.5)

These two teams combined for just 130 points in their first meeting and I believe it has ceased some value here with the total in the rematch. Butler simply had an off-night offensively in that first meeting, scoring just 60 points on 34.9% shooting. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.3 ppg and shooting 47.7% from the field overall, with an even better 86.7 ppg and 52% from the field at home. Providence just put up 76 in their upset win over Villanova and have now allowed 70+ in 6 of their last 7 games. OVER is 9-1 in Butler's last 10 home games off 3 or more consecutive OVERS and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games when revenging a loss as a favorite. Give me the OVER 145.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 141) 

I think these two teams will have no problem going UNDER the total set here by the books. Washington is one of the top defensive teams in the Pac-12 (lead the conference in defensive efficiency), so don't get too concerned with the 97-points they just allowed in a loss at Oregon State. If anything that will only have them that more locked in on that side of the ball here against the Utes. While Utah isn't a great defensive team, the Huskies feature one of the least efficient offenses in the Pac-12 and the Utes are a team that likes to slow the game way down (12th in Pac-12 in pace of play). Another key here is Utah's offense relies heavily on the 3-point shot and the Huskies are the best in the conference at defending the 3-pointer. Note these two teams already played back in January and only combined for 132 points with a total of 145.5. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 144) 

My money is on St. John's and DePaul playing another high-scoring game and flying over the total set here by the books. These two teams played back on Jan. 6 and combined for 165 points DePaul put up 91 points on the road in that contest. I don't think it was a fluke that they scored so much. 

No team plays at a faster pace in the Big East than the Blue Demons. While the Red Storm are ranked a mere 7th in pace in the conference, they are 2nd in average length of possession on offense, which is actually ahead of DePaul. Simply put both teams like to push the tempo. Even if they have an off-night shooting, the pace still gives us a good shot to go over this total. Give me the OVER 144! 

50* NCAAB ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 162)

I got no problem backing the OVER here with Duke and Virginia Tech. These are two of the best offensive teams in the country. The Blue Devils lead the nation in offensive efficiency and the Hokies are sitting at 19th. That combined with the fact that Duke also plays at the fastest pace in the country and should dictate the tempo, should have this flying over the total set here.

The Hokies give up 78 on the road and I wouldn't be shocked if they were a bit flat on that side off that big win over in-state rival Virginia. Duke averages 92.6 ppg at home and the only ACC team to keep them under 80 at home is Virginia. The Blue Devils could score 100 here. Give me the OVER 162! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 124)

I think these two teams will have no problem staying under the mark set by the books. Rutgers features one of the worst offenses in the country, as the Scarlet Knights are averaging just 57.9 ppg and shooting a mere 36% from the field in Big Ten play. Northwestern isn't a whole lot better at a mere 63.5 ppg in conference action. The Wildcats are also not nearly as good on the road, where they are averaging 61.7 ppg on the season (average 70.4 ppg overall). The other big key here is tempo. Northwestern ranks dead last in pace of play in the Big Ten. That grind it out style with Rutgers poor excuse for an offense will make this one of the more unentertaining games of the night. Give me the UNDER 124! 

50* NCAAB BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 148.5)

My money is on a much higher-scoring game than what the books are projecting with this total. A big key to this is I don't think Michigan State is going to be locked in defensively here coming off that emotional win at home over Purdue. Keep in mind prior to that highly anticipated matchup with the Boilermakers they combined for 189 points at Iowa. Minnesota plays at the second fastest pace in the Big Ten and are averaging 81 ppg at home this season. The other key here is they aren't a great defensive team, ranking 12th out of the 14 teams in the conference in defensive efficiency. They have allowed 75 or more in each of their last 4 games and 10 of their last 11. The Spartans are averaging 83.1 ppg on the season and 75.1 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 148.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 134.5) 

I think we are getting a great price here on the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 game between Texas and Baylor. These two teams played back in early January and combined for just 129 points. These are two strong defensive teams and given how much this game means for both of these teams, I think we get a huge effort here from both sides. UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 games Baylor has played with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1 in their last 8 off a win. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Longhorns last 29 games when revenging a loss and 12-1 in their last 13 when revenging a same season loss. Give me the UNDER 134.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 127.5) 

I'll take a shot here on Sunday's Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Wisconsin finishing below the total set here by the books. Wisconsin is a team that's ideal for UNDER bettors with their grind it out style of play. The Badgers are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 67.4 ppg (63.2 in Big Ten play), but only give up 66.5 ppg due to their slow pace of play. The Wolverines have a little more fire-power, but are still only putting up 68.6 ppg in Big Ten play. Like Wisconsin, they want to grind out possessions and are allowing only 63.4 ppg. Add in the early start time here in a Sunday game and I think we get a very boring and low-scoring affair. Give me the UNDER 127.5! 

50* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 141.5) 

My money is on Saturday's big SEC showdown between Kentucky and Texas A&M finishing UNDER the total. I was on the UNDER in the Wildcats last game against Tennessee and won easily, as the two teams combined for just 120 points with a total of 143.5. I think we see a very similar defensive battle here, as Kentucky has to rely so much on their defense with how limited they are offensively. Texas A&M has been excellent defensively, holding opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting, which is the 8th best mark in the country. Kentucky isn't far behind, as they only allow teams to shoot 40.8% (31st). Both of these teams also rank outside the Top 240 in both 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. I'll take my chances with a total in the 140s given these circumstances every time. Give me the UNDER 141.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 160)

I think the OVER is worth a look here in Saturday's ACC action that has in-state rivals NC State and North Carolina going to battle. These two teams played once already this season and combined for 186 points in the Wolfpack's 95-91 win at UNC. It was the 3 straight meeting in the series that saw the two teams combined for at least 163 points. NC State is averaging 87.5 ppg at home and I think they will have plenty of success here as they catch the Tar Heels off that big win over Duke Thursday. On the flip side of this, North Carolina should put up a big number here as they have scored 80 or more in 5 of their last 7 and NC State isn't a great defensive team. Give me the OVER 160! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 198)

My money is on the Bucks and Heat finishing well below the total set by the books on Friday. Milwaukee comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. During this stretch the Bucks are the No. 1 rated team in the league in defensive efficiency. Part of that is the tempo they are playing at, as they rank 25th in pace over this run. Miami has been playing this way all season, as the Heat are 28th in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency. I also think we get a big time defensive effort here from Miami on their home floor having lost 5 straight and allowing 100+ in each of their last 4. Give me the UNDER 198! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 139.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Thursday's AAC action between Houston and SMU finishing below the number set here by the books. SMU just recently lost leading scoring Shake Milton (18 ppg) to a hand injury. Keep in mind not that long ago they lost Jarrey Foster, who is second on the team in scoring (13.2 ppg). The Mustangs are a team that likes to grind it out and rely on their defense and come in ranked near the bottom of the country in terms of pace of play. They are going to have to slow things down even more and really lock in defensively if they want to keep it competitive against the Cougars. The big question is can they score enough against a very good Houston defense that is allowing opponents to shoot just 39.5% from the field on the season, which is the 13th best mark in the nation. Give me the UNDER 139.5! 

40* DUKE/UNC PRIME TIME MASSACRE (Over 165)

I think we are in store for a ton of offensive fireworks in tonight's anticipated showdown between Duke and North Carolina. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country and both love to push the tempo, which I believe is going to have this game flying over the total set here by the books. Duke is averaging 89.6 ppg and UNC has scored 90+ in two of their last 3 games and are averaging 88.7 ppg at home. I just don't think either team is good enough defensively to slow down the other side and it would take a horrific shooting night by both sides for this not to go over the mark. Give me the OVER 165! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 148)

I'll take my chances here with Wyoming and Utah State eclipsing the total set here by the books. Wyoming features an explosive offense that averages 79.1 ppg (60th) and they are an even better 82.3 ppg at home. A big reason for that is they like to push the tempo, which has also led to some shaky defense, as they are giving up 78.4 ppg. I think Utah State has more than enough fire-power offensively to hang with the Cowboys and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw both teams surpass 80 points to fly over this total. Keep in mind these two played in late January and combined for 162 points and have eclipsed the total in each of their last 4 meetings, with all 4 seeing at least 155 points. Give me the OVER 148! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 209) 

Lot of factors here working in favor of tonight's game between the Pistons and Nets going under the mark set by the books. Detroit has really come alive with the recent trade that landed them Blake Griffin. They have won 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming at home. In those 3 home wins the defense has been excellent and I expect another big effort here as I look for them to ride the momentum they got going into the break. Offensively they have been shooting great, eclipsing 50% in each of their last 2 games, but also only scored 111 points in those two games. That kind of shooting isn't sustainable and chances are we don't see a 3rd straight game over 50%. Brooklyn just played a high-scoring game last night at home against the Rockets, but had really been struggling offensively of late. I could see them coming out flat here and that could easily lead to a blowout and even greater chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 209! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 131)

I think the number here is high enough that there's a really good chance this game stays UNDER the mark. Anytime Virginia is involved in a game you have to expect a low scoring game. The average score in their games this season is just 121 points and it's even lower at 117.4 in conference play. The fact that FSU comes in averaging 91.2 ppg on their home floor is definitely playing into this number. I just don't see the Seminoles coming close to that mark against Virginia, who hasn't allowed more than 64 points in a single ACC game. What people will overlook with FSU is how good a team they are defensively. Opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them, which is the 39th best mark in the country. They should be able to hold their own against the Cavaliers offense, who like to grind each possession on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 131! 

40* TENN/KENTUCKY PRIME-TIME MASSACRE (Under 141) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Tuesday's SEC showdown between Kentucky and Tennessee finishing below the total of 141. For starters, the UNDER is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings overall in the series and is 9-1-2 in the last 12 games played at Kentucky. One of the big strengths of this Volunteers team is their 3-point shooting. They average 8 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting 39.8% from long distance. That plays right into the strength of the Kentucky defense, which is 3rd in the country at defending the 3-pointer, holding teams to just 28.9% from long-distance (even better at 27.1% at home). The other big key here is the Vols are very strong defensively, holding teams to just 40.6% shooting from the field. They matchup well here with a Kentucky offense that doesn't have a lot of outside shooting. Note they only scored 65 points in the first meeting vs the Vols and shot 46% from the field. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 122.5)

These two teams played UCF back on Jan. 16th and combined for a whopping 87 points in a 49-38 Cincinnati win. Not a big surprise given how good both of these teams are defensively. The Bearcats are 2nd in the country, allowing just 56.8 ppg and are holding opponents to just 36.6% shooting, which is the 2nd best mark. The Knights are 3rd in the nation, giving up just 60.6 ppg and are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting (5th). Chances are they will score more than the 87 points they combined for in the first meeting this season, but I don't think we see a big enough spike here to where they eclipse the mark here. UNDER is a ridiculous 40-15 in Cincinnati's last 55 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 9-2 in the Knights last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in the series. Give me the UNDER 122.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 222) 

Houston is going to be without Trevor Ariza and more than likely Chris Paul. I don't think losing those two is going slow down this offense at all against Orlando. The Magic have been right there with the Cavs and Suns in terms of the worst defensive play of late and I don't see them keeping this explosive Houston offense in check, especially when you consider that Magic struggle to defense the 3-point line and no team shoots more 3's than the Rockets. These two played at the very beginning of this month and the Rockets scored 116 without James Harden (shot 44% from 3). The two teams did only combine for 114 points, but that was with Orlando shooting a mere 38.5% from the field. No Paul and Ariza takes away from the defensive mentality of Houston and I just don't see this being a game they are going to be all that motivated to lockdown the Magic. Give me the OVER 222. 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 131) 

These two teams played at Nebraska back on 1/9 and combined for 122 points with a similar total (132) to what we have here. I don't see why we shouldn't expect a similar defensive battle in the rematch. One of the reasons I think we aren't seeing a lower total is the fact that Nebraska comes in off a game against Iowa where the two teams combined for 182 points. That's more of a result of who they played than anything. Iowa is a team that opens the game way up and offers little to no resistance on defense. Prior to that contest the Cornhuskers hadn't scored more than 74 in 9 straight games. They also have had struggles offensively on the road in Big Ten play, scoring 62 or fewer in 4 of 6 road games. Wisconsin only scored 67 against Iowa and are averaging a mere 62.8 ppg in Big Ten Play. Key here is I think the Badgers play hard defensively at home and that should put us in a great spot to cash this ticket. Give me the UNDER 131!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 202)

I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs have had no choice but to slow things way down and rely on their defense to win games without Leonard. San Antonio ranks 29th in pace, a mere 17th in offensive efficiency and are 2nd in defensive efficiency. They lead the league, holding opponents to just 97.4 ppg (Celtics are the only other team holding opponents to fewer than 101.5 ppg. 76ers play at a little faster tempo, but are very similar otherwise, as they are 16th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. With the game being played in San Antonio, the Spurs should be able to force Philadelphia to play at their pace and I believe that's going to make it tough for either team to put up a lot of points. Note the 76ers recently played at Boston and that came finished with a mere 169 points. Give me the UNDER 202! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 211)

With all the injuries that each of these teams are dealing with I think people just assume they don't have enough talent available to be any good offensively. Over the last 15 games these have been two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league with Memphis ranking 10th and the Clippers 5th. Defense has been optional for the Grizzlies and they come in having allowed 100+ in 3 straight games and face a Clippers offense that has scored 100+ in 18 straight. Only twice during this stretch has LA held an opponent under 100 points and in their last 3 they haven't allowed less than 113. I just think given how these two teams are playing this total is more than low enough to take a shot. Give me the OVER 211! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214) 

These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 209)

It's no secret that the Celtics are one of the leagues best defensive teams. What I think a lot of people don't realize is how good the Lakers have been playing defensively here of late. In the Lakers last 8 games they rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (Celtics are No. 1). With this game being in front of a national audience on TNT, I think that only adds to the intensity both teams come out with on the defensive side of the ball. It's also worth noting that the Lakers don't play at near the frantic pace that we are use to without Ball in the lineup. What also gets overlooked is how much the Celtics are struggling offensively. Over their last 15 games only the Nets are worse in offensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 209! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214) 

The OVER is worth a look here in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Magic hosting the Kings. Orlando isn't a great defensive team and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency over their last 8 games. I don't see them being all that interested in playing defense against a bad team like the Kings. This is also a flat spot for them defensively off that upset win at Boston. Magic have allowed 112.4 ppg in their last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. 

In Sacramento's last 6 games they have allowed 120 or more 3 different times and don't figure to be playing a whole lot of defense tonight in the second game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Charlotte. Orlando's offense has been much better of late and they are average 107.2 over their last 5. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 in terms of pace of play in their last 8 games. I think these two fly over the mark here. Give me the OVER 214! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 217) 

Over their last 10 games, no team has a worse defensive efficiency rating the Magic and that's why I really like tonight's game against the Timberwolves to fly over this total. That horrible Orlando defense will be facing one of the most efficient offenses in the league in Minnesota, who is averaging 108.8 ppg and shooting 48% from the field on the season. T-Wovles have scored 116 or more in 4 of their last 5 with the only exception being 104-point outing against the Thunder in a blowout win. I know the defense has been better for Minnesota, but I don't think we get a big effort on that side of the ball playing on the road against a bad team, especially with how easy it figures to be for them offensively and the fact they have a much bigger game on deck against the Rockets. Orlando just put up 119 on the road against the Wizards and are averaging 112 ppg over their last 4. I think both teams hit the 110 mark, which is more than enough to eclipse this total. Give me the OVER 217! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 218)

The Timberwolves were just held to 84 points in last night's game against the Celtics. Minnesota simply didn't have it and you have to credit Boston's defense, which is arguably the best in the league when they want to be. I look for the Timberwolves to return to form here at home. Minnesota is averaging 108.9 ppg at home and will be facing a Pelicans defense that is one of the worst in the league, giving up 110.9 ppg. On the flip side of this, I also look for a big offensive night from New Orleans, as they come in averaging 113.6 ppg over their last 5. I know the Timberwolves have played better defensively of late, I just don't see a big effort on that side of the ball with them playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 218!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 212) 

These two teams played a little less than two weeks ago and combined for 224 points in a 115-109 Bulls win at Milwaukee. I think we see a very similar type of offensive game here. Chicago only scored 92 in their last game at Boston, but that was a brutal spot for the Bulls. Prior to that Chicago had scored 110 or more in 4 straight games and have also allowed 109 or more in 4 of their last 5. This team is really shooting the 3-ball well and like to push the pace, which is ideal for high-scoring games. Milwaukee's offense has really improved since they made that trade for Bledsoe and they come in having scored 100 or more in 15 straight games. While the offense has been rolling, the defense hasn't been great, as they have also allowed 100 or more points in 11 straight games, giving up 111 or more in 5 of their last 6. Give me the OVER 212! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)

It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 210.5)

I'll take my chances here with these two teams going UNDER the total set by the books in Saturday's rematch. The Bucks and Hornets played last night in Milwaukee in a closely contested game, in which the Bucks went on a 9-0 run to close out the game and win 109-104. Any time you have a home-and-home like this, more times than not it trends to being a much lower scoring game in the second meeting, as the two teams are now very familiar with the sets the other team is trying to run. That's not the only factor here favoring a lower-scoring game. Charlotte lost Dwight Howard early in that contest and then in the 4th quarter, their best player, Kemba Walker, was forced out of action. Both are listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if either plays. Even if they both somehow get on the court, I still think we see these two teams go well below the mark here. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214) 

I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss. 

With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 208.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Houston is right there with the Warriors as the most explosive offensive in the NBA. All those concerns about how Chris Paul and James Harden can coexist are an afterthought, as Paul has really fit in nicely. Houston comes in having scored at least 117 points in 5 straight games and as good as Utah can be defensively, they aren't as strong on that side of the ball on the road. I think the Rockets will put up another big number here. However, the key here is the Jazz are playing a lot better on offense than expected, as they have gone to a more up-tempo attack led by rookie Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 31 ppg on 53.3% shooting in December. While Utah only scored 94 last time out against the Hornets, they had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 6 and 9 of their last 10 overall. Give me the OVER 208.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5) 

The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points. 

Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth.

I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 196) 

Last time out the Jazz won 112-103 at home over the Blazers, which saw them go OVER the total set of 191.5. The thing is the OVER didn't come until overtime, as the two were tied at 92-92 at the end of regulation. That's now 6 straight games where the final scored in Utah games has been 193 or less at the end of regulation. Even with that extra time, the Jazz are still only allowing 91.2 ppg at home. It's not just Utah's defense that makes them such a great team to back the UNDER with, it's the fact that they play at such a slow pace, the slowest in the league. Toronto is a pretty good defensive team in their own right, ranking in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors also average nearly 5 points fewer on the road than they do at home. Give me the UNDER 196! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 211.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 208) 

New York's offense is one of the worst in the NBA and wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics held them to 90 or less here. Boston has started out just 1-2, so there will be no overlooking the Knicks at home tonight and while the defense should have no problem keeping New York in check, the Celtics are still trying to find themselves offensively after losing Hayward. They are also still missing Marcus Morris and likely without Marcus Smart, who didn't practice yesterday. Knicks should give enough effort here against a division rival to keep Boston from scoring too much to push this over the number. Give me the UNDER 208! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 205.5) 

Tom Thibodeau had to be sick with how bad the Timberwolves were defensively a season ago, but they don't figure to struggle on that side of the ball this year. Minnesota went out an added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson to pair with youngsters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. All 3 of those new guys are defensive upgrades. It won't hurt that the Spurs are going to be without both Tony Parker and Kwahi Leonard. Even minus two starters, San Antonio will show up at home and this team led the league in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 205.5! 

50* NBA FINALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 227)

I would lean Warriors here, but I feel the real value is with the total. Cleveland is saying they aren't going to slow things down and will continue to play fast. I'm not buying it. The Cavs know they can't contain this Warriors offense if they let them get out in transition. They don't have to play at a snails pace, but they have to play slower. The pace of these first two games has been ridiculous. On top of that, we are going to get the very best the Cavs have to offer defensively at home in what I think most agree is a game they have to win if they want any shot at making this a series. At the same time, I don't see the Warriors letting off the defensive intensity after blowing a 3-1 lead last year. Give me the UNDER 227! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 215.5)

Boston played much better in the two games in Cleveland than they did in the first two at home and I think part of it is they are moving the ball better offensively. They simply can't play as bad as they did in Games 1 and 2 at home, at least offensively. These two combined for 121 in Boston for Game 1 and then just 116 in Game 2 and that was with the Celtics scoring just 86 and shooting 37.2% from the field. I look for a locked in Cavs offense with the chance to close the series and a good enough showing here from Boston to push this over the mark. Give me the OVER 215.5!

40* NBA NO DOUBT TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 218)

After letting Game 3 get away from them after building a huge lead and watching the Warriors finish off the Spurs last night, I look for a pissed off and extremely motivated Cleveland team to take the floor here and 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time I also think the fact that Boston was able to get a win in Game 3 keeps them locked in and actually gives them some extra incentive here. I think we see the lowest scoring game in this series by far. Give me the UNDER 218!

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 218)

It came right down to the final seconds of Game 1 before it went over the total and I think that has a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in Game 2. I'm going the other way, as these two just combined for 221 points with the Celtics failing to score more than 20 points in either of the first two periods. They combined for 121 points in the 2nd half, which is a pace of 242. I'm not saying it gets to that mark, but I don't think Boston has any answer for the Cavs offense and can't be as poor as they were on offense in Game 1 at home. Give me the OVER 218!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 209)

I feel like the absense of Leonard along with a more focused Warriors team than we saw at the beginning of Game 1, is going to lead to Golden State playing the entire game at their pace. Keep in mind they put up 71 points in the 2nd half in Game 1. Leonard is a big part of the Spurs offense, but the system that Popovich runs is going to produce open shots, especially with the advantage San Antonio has inside. I think this one flies past the total. Give me the OVER 209!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 211)

This is all about the magnitude of this being Game 7 with a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line for these two teams. For most of the star players on both sides, this is as far as they have got in the playoffs. I think the pressure started to show itself in Game 6, when they combined for a mere 183 points. Thanks to the public's love of betting the OVER, we are getting a huge total here. Simply too much value for me to pass up. Give me the UNDER 211!

40* Celtics/Wizards NBA Playoffs Total No Brainer (Over 216)

I'm usually an UNDER player in the playoffs, but sometimes you just get a matchup like we have here. Both teams love to get up and down the floor, so there's a lot of possessions both ways, they can each light it up from 3-point range and neither is all that great defensively. Washington had scored 110+ in each of the first 4 games of the series before getting held to 101 in Game 5 (They eclipsed 100 points shooting 38.5% from the field). Only one game in the series has finished below the total set by the books and that was an epic bad shooting night for Boston. I'll take my chances these two eclipse the mark again. Give me the OVER 216!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 214)

The deeper you get in a series the more familiar each team gets with the other side and what they are trying to do offensively. Houston is known for their up tempo style, but facing elimination, I expect a little more focus on defense and not going quite so fast early in the game, so they have something left in the tank in the 4th quarter. There's always a chance the Rockets could go off with the 3-ball, but San Antonio has held them to 101 or fewer points in regulation in 3 of the last 4 games. Give me the UNDER 214!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Over 216)

These two teams have combined for 223 or more points in 3 of the first 4 games in the series and the only one that didn't was in Washington, where the Celtics couldn't buy a basket. They shot 35.1% from the field, easily one of their worst shooting performances of the entire season. They shot 51.1% from the field in each of the first two games at home in this series and I expect a big night from the Celtics' offense in this one. Washington has scored now fewer than 111 points in the series. Give me the OVER 216!

40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (UNDER 214)

I absolutely love the under here in Game 5 tonight. I expect to see the same San Antonio team on defense that we saw in Game 2 and Game 3, where they held the Rockets to 96 and 92 points, respectively. These two teams are also starting to get really familiar with one another. UNDER is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets played in a Game 5 and 8-3-1 in Houston's last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Give me the UNDER 214!

40* NBA Vegas Total No Brainer (Under 208)

These two teams combined for 219 points in Game 2 after totaling just 200 in the series opener. I think with the series sitting 2-0 Golden State and it shifting to Utah for Game 3, we are getting some great value here with the total at 208. Utah knows they have to ugly up the game to beat this Warriors team and to do that they have to lock down defensively. They did a pretty good job of it in Golden State and I expect their best defensive effort here, as they know their season is all but over if they fall behind 3-0 in the series. Give me the UNDER 208!

40* Jazz/Warriors Late Night BAILOUT (Under 208)

Utah is going to try and slow down the pace of this game as much as possible. They aren't going to have the energy to play at Golden State's pace after just playing a Game 7 on Sunday against the Clippers. The Jazz will lean heavily on their defense. While I don't think it will be enough to win the game, I think they keep this from turning into a shootout and put the value here on the under. Keep in mind this Golden State defense is no joke and held the Jazz to just 74 points in a matchup this season. Give me the UNDER 208!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (Over 216)

This might seem like a big total, given the intensity teams play with on defense in the playoffs, but there tends to be a let down on defense when shifting to a new series. Both of these teams just went on the road and closed out their 1st round series in Game 6. Boston's last 4 games in their series were all low scoring, but that was due to the Bulls offense losing Rondo and just not being able to play at the same pace. Both of these teams love to push the pace and I look for this to be an entertaining game that sees these two combine for more than 220. Give me the OVER 216!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 206)

I'm not quite ready to count out Chicago without Rondo, but I think his absence has created some great value here on the UNDER. Rondo is a huge part of Chicago's offense and without him there simply won't be as many open shots. He also did a good job of pushing the ball up the floor, so expect a slower pace than we saw in the first two games of this series. You also have to factor in how big a game this is for Boston being down 0-2 on the road. They are going to give everything they got on defense. Not to mention these two teams are getting familiar with each other. Give me the UNDER 206!

50* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs Weekend BEST BET (Under 199.5)

This is without a doubt my favorite play on the board in the NBA Playoffs this weekend. Toronto isn't viewed as a great defensive team and they weren't for a good part of this season. The Raptors defensive numbers improved drastically with the additions of Ibaka and Tucker. On the flip side of this, defense was a major part of the Bucks big run down the stretch. Milwaukee's got the size to matchup with anyone and make things difficult on that side of the ball. With the pressure of the playoffs I think we are getting more than 10-points in value here. Give me the UNDER 199.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 211.5)

I look for the Bulls and Cavaliers to have no problem eclipsing this total tonight. Cleveland comes in off an absolutely miserable offensive performance, scoring just 74 points in a 29-point loss at San Antonio on Monday. There were a lot of factors that played into that awful showing, including the Spurs being an elite defensive team and the Cavs just being tired from a brutal schedule. Prior to that game Cleveland had scored at least 112 points in 4 straight games. Note that they lost 78-108 at Los Angeles (Clippers) and the next game combined for 145 points with the Lakers. Chicago's scored 107 or more in 4 straight and should be able to keep that streak going, pushing us well over the mark here. Give me the OVER 211.5!

50* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year (UNDER 201)

I expect the intensity to be very similar to that of a playoff game tonight, as these two teams are both fighting for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami currently holds that spot, but they have a mere 1-game lead on the Bulls and 1.5-game lead on the Pistons. Neither team can really afford to lose this game. I believe it's going to lead to max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this one finishing well below the mark. Note that Detroit hasn't scored more than 96 points in each of their last 4 games and aren't expected to have Reggie Jackson for this game. Miami's offense simply isn't the same without Waiters and it doesn't help that Dragic is playing at less than 100%. Both teams are also playing with tired legs. the Pistons are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a 4-game road trip and Miami is playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days. Give me the UNDER 201!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 200)

I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here with these two teams. Utah is holding on to a slim 1-game lead for the 4th spot in the west with just 9 games left to play, while New Orleans is clinging onto hope of sneaking in as the No. 8 seed, though they need to make up 4 games with just 9 to play. Unlikely, but with them coming off a 25-point blowout win at Denver yesterday, they aren't giving up just yet. Utah is a dominant defensive team and the Pelicans have been playing really good defense overall of late. I look for this to finish close to 190 than 200. Give me the UNDER 200!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 202.5)

I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere in LA this afternoon, as the Jazz and Clippers meet for the final time. This game is huge for both sides, as Utah currently has a 1.5-game lead over LA for the No. 4 spot in the west. A win for Utah and they have a 2.5-game with less than 10 to play. The Clippers can not only pull within a 1/2-game, but they would also earn the tie-breaker with a victory, as they have already won 2 of the first 3 meetings this season. These two combined for 122 recently, but had failed to eclipse 165 in the previous two. Given the circumstances, I look for this to well below the total. Give me the UNDER 202.5!

40* Late Night Sweet 16 Total No Brainer (UNDER 145)

This Arizona team is the real deal and I believe their defense is going to be the deciding factor in this one. The Wildcats held a potent St. Mary's team to just 60 points in their last game and I look for them to slow down the Musketeers. Xavier has shot lights out in their first two tournament games, but this Arizona defense is by far the best they have seen. Musketeers are no slouches on defense either, as they have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 66 or less. It's also worth pointing out that neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace, which only adds that much more value here. Give me the UNDER 145!

40* NBA Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 203.5)

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight. The Hawks are just going through the motions right now and are going to be without two key pieces to the rotation in Millsap and Bazemore. Not to mention Atlanta has scored less than 100 points in each of their last 3 games and just shot a mere 36.4% from the field in their last contest. Charlotte is fighting for their playoff lives and will be locked in defensively at home in this one. Hornets have held each of their last two opponents under 100 points. UNDER is also 15-2 in Charlotte's last 17 home games against a division opponent and 8-1 in the Hawks last 9 road games when revenging a straight up loss. Give me the UNDER 203.5!

40* NCAA Tournament Total No Brainer (UNDER 153.5)

UCLA and their high-powered offense leaves the books no choice but to lay a big number on the total, but I think the matchup here with Cincinnati is going to be a lot more lower scoring than most people think. The Bearcats know they can't win this game by trying to trade blows offensively with UCLA in transition offense. Their only chance is to ugly up the game and slow the tempo way down and really bring the intensity on defense. That's the stretch of this Cincinnati team and I think it's going to take the Bruins some time to figure out how to attack the Bearcats defense. Keep in mind this is a Cincinnati team that went on the road and held the likes of Iowa State's high-powered offense to just 54 points. Give me the UNDER 153.5!

40* NCAAB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 162)

I think the smart play here is to take the UNDER. I know UCLA comes in averaging 90.4 ppg, but Kent State is not a team that wants to run with them. In fact, they want to limit the number of possessions and to do that they have to grind it out each time they have the ball and make sure they avoid letting UCLA get out in transition. Easier said than done, but you also have to factor in that the Bruins could come out a bit flat here like a lot of the top seeds have so far in the tournament. There's also much bigger games looming for UCLA, so if they get up big, they aren't going to be looking to run up the score. I also think we are getting an inflated number here with how much the public likes to back the over in UCLA games. Give me the UNDER 162!

50* NCAAB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 152) 

This one should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. Oregon can light up the scoreboard, as they come in averaging 79.1 ppg. They will be facing an Iona defense that is awful. Keep in mind they allowed 90+ to both FSU and Nevada early in the year and 80+ in 4 of their last 8 overall, including 103 points to Rider at home on 2/19. The key here is that while the Ducks will be soaring up and down the court, Iona is capable of keeping pace. The Gaels average 80.5 ppg and will be facing an Oregon defense that is minus one of the better defenders in Chris Boucher, who averaged an impressive 2.5 blocks per game. Give me the OVER 152!

40* NBA Late Night Total Bailout (OVER 219)

It hasn't been pretty for the Warriors of late, as they come in having lost 3 straight and 5 of 7 overall. Three times during this stretch Golden State has failed to score at least 90 points. The big thing to keep in mind is that most of these games came on the road and the scheduling/rest was brutal. Not to mention they were adjusting to life without Durant. They rested their top 4 guys in Saturday's blowout loss to the Spurs and that means all 4 have had a full 3 days to rest up. I see this as a statement game for the Warriors and I just don't think the 76ers will be able to do anything to keep Golden State's offense from putting up 120+ here. Note this is Philadelphia's 4th and final game of a west coast trip that has spanned just 6 days. 76ers give up 110 ppg on the road and the Warriors average 120.3 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 219!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (Over 205)

I like to look towards the OVER later in the season when you get two bad teams that are out of the playoff race. Especially when it's a non-conference matchup and there's no real bad blood or reason for either team to get motivated. I believe that's exactly what we have here with the Kings and Magic. On the plus side, we are getting a favorable number here due to both offenses not being very good, but it's the defense that matters. Neither team has been playing much of it. Magic are allowing 109.5 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 110 or more in 4 of their last 5. Sacramento gives up 106.6 ppg at home and have allowed 100+ in 7 straight. Each of their last 4 opponents have shot 47% or better from the field. Give me the OVER!

50* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month (UNDER 201.5)

This is a huge game. Utah currently holds the No. 4 seed in the west, but are just 1-game ahead of the Clippers at No. 5. All signs point to this being a 1st round matchup. Getting the No. 4 seed and homecourt in that series is huge. I expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and that means high intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that these two teams have played twice already and both have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for 163 in a game at LA back in October and 160 at Utah back in February. I don't think it's going to be that low-scoring, but we got 30+ points to work with. Give me the UNDER!

40* NBA Over/Under Total Knockout (Under 214.5)

I'm not expecting a lot of energy at all from Washington int this one. The Wizards are playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 5th in the last 7 and all 5 will be on the road. They are coming off back-to-back overtime games on Friday and Saturday. This is a team that likes to get out and run. I just don't see them being up to it tonight. Minnesota has been playing well and a big part of that is their improvement on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are allowing just 94.4 ppg over their last 5 and have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 102 or fewer points. I look for Minnesota to dictate the tempo and keep this well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 214.5!

40* NCAAB Blockbuster Total No Brainer (OVER 164)

I look for these two teams to have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. Creighton comes in averaging 84.3 ppg at home and will be facing a St. John's defense that gives up 82.1 ppg on the road. The key here is that while the Red Storm can't stop anybody, they are capable of putting up big numbers offensively, as they average a respectable 77.6 ppg. The OVER is 11-4 in St. John's 15 games away from home and a perfect 6-0 after playing a game as a home favorite and 16-3 in Creighton's last 19 home games off 2 straight conference losses. Give me the OVER 164!

40* NBA No Doubt Total Knockout (UNDER 204.5)

Utah has finally got all their key pieces healthy and have been locking down on teams on the defensive side of the ball. Utah has held each of their last 4 opponents to 95 or fewer points and that includes games against some high-powered offensive teams in the Clippers, Blazers and Wizards. The last two coming on the road, where they are tonight. OKC comes in having scored 110 or more in each of their last 3, but it's come against the Knicks, Lakers and Pelicans. All really bad defensive teams. I think they have a hard time adjusting here to the stingy defense of the Jazz. OKC beat Utah on the road and that's worth noting, as the UNDER is 7-0 when the Jazz are revenging a loss as a home favorite. Give me the UNDER 204.5!

50* NCAAB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 142.5)

I just don't think there's too much value here on the OVER to pass up. Yes, these two teams combined for just 119 points earlier this season at Iowa State. The thing is, it was about as bad ad both teams could have played offensively. Texas Tech shot 38.6% from the field and 28.6% from behind the 3-point line. Iowa State was 39.6% from the field and 28.6% from long-distance. ISU averages 80.7 ppg and Tech is at 75.4 (80.2 ppg at home). I expect a lot more flow this time around. The Cyclones are limited defensively and come in giving up 76.8 ppg on the road. Texas Tech only gives up 65.4 ppg at home, but I just don't see them locking down on defense playing on just 1-day rest after a crushing double-overtime loss at West Virginia. Five different Red Raiders logged 32+ minutes and only 7 players played more than 6 minutes. OVER is 6-1 in Cyclones last 7 road games and 24-9 in their last 33 as a dog of 6.5 or less. OVER is also 8-3 in Red Raiders last 11 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Give me the OVER 142.5!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (UNDER 200)

These two teams combined for just 180 points in an earlier meeting this season and I'm expecting another low-scoring game in the rematch. Neither of these two teams like to push the tempo, as both rank in the bottom 7 in pace. They also both rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and Top 20 in defensive efficiency. Detroit's gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 and the UNDER is 13-3 in the Pistons last 16 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 200!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 216)

These two teams have played twice this season already. They only combined for 192 points in the first meeting at Sacramento back on 11/10 and then 208 at Sacramento on 12/12. That might lead some to want to take the UNDER here as the total for this game is at 216. Not me. Neither of these teams were playing well offensively in the previous matchups. That's not the case this time. The Lakers come in having scored 100+ points in 6 straight games and have topped 120 in 3 of those games. Kings have scored 100+ in 6 straight and 11 of 12 overall. We also have two teams that don't exactly like to play defense and with the all-star break looming I don't expect much of any to be played tonight. Give me the OVER 216!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (OVER 210)

A lot of people think of Memphis as a defensive juggernaut and that was the case in year's past, but not so much this season, at least on the road. The Grizzlies are giving up 99.6 ppg on the season, but allowing 104.0 ppg on the road, which has translated into the OVER going 20-8 in their 28 road games this season. Brooklyn is a perfect team for a high-scoring game, as they like to push the pace and play little to no defense. The Nets average 105.1 ppg and give up an average of 114.0 ppg. With both teams playing on fresh legs (2 days rest each) I look for this to be a very fast paced game that easily eclipses the total. Give me the OVER 210!

50* NCAAB Big 12 Play of the Month (OVER 127)

These two teams played earlier this season and combined for just 126 points with a total of 130.5. I believe that low-scoring game has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the total for this contest. That first meeting saw both teams struggle from the field. Texas Tech only hit 41.4% of their attempts and Baylor was a miserable 35.4% from the field. That's uncharacteristic for both teams, as the Red Raiders are hitting 48.3% from the field on the season (51.3% at home) and the Bears are at 47.9% on the season (47.1% on the road). OVER is also 6-0 in Texas Tech's last 6 after playing their previous game as a home dog (hosted Kansas on Saturday). Give me the OVER 127!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 227.5)

These two teams have gone under the total in each of the first two meetings this season, but both of those came at Golden State and it wasn't the Warriors fault that it didn't go over. Golden State had 122 in the first meeting and 121 in the second. It was the Thunder that couldn't get their offense on track. I believe that changes at home, where OKC is averaging 109.7 ppg. Godlen State's offense travels to any gym and I think we are in store for an epic back and forth game here. Note the Warriors don't figure to be 100% locked in defensively playing on no rest and this also being their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 227.5!

40* NBA Over/Under Total Crusher (OVER 218.5)

I'm taking the OVER here tonight between the Lakers and Bucks. This game doesn't figure to have a whole lot of defense being played on either side and these two teams are capable of putting up a big number. The Lakers haven't played defense all season, as they are giving up 110.5 ppg on the year. It's been even worse than that of late, allowing 114.6 ppg over their last 5. Milwaukee puts up 108.7 ppg at home and could easily hit 120 here. I could see LA reaching that as well, pushing this one well past the posted number. Give me the OVER 218.5!