10* NBA Suns/Warriors VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SUNS/WARRIORS OVER 234.5

10* NBA Heat/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON HEAT/NUGGETS OVER 219

10* NBA Celtics/Heat VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON CELTICS/HEAT UNDER 210.5

10* NBA Heat/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON HEAT/CELTICS UNDER 216

10* NBA Warriors/Lakers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON WARRIORS/LAKERS UNDER 227.5

10* NBA 76ers/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON 76ERS/CELTICS UNDER 217

10* NBA Suns/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SUNS/NUGGETS OVER 226

10* NBA Thunder/Pelicans PLAYOFF INSIDER

PLAY ON THUNDER/PELICANS UNDER 227

9* NBA Pacers/Pistons SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON PISTONS/PACERS OVER 229

10* NBA Lakers/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LAKERS/CLIPPERS UNDER 230

9* NBA Lakers/Wolves SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON LAKERS/WOLVES OVER 232

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON MAVS/GRIZZLIES OVER 229.5:

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing 230 points. I believe there's some value with this total due to the questionable tags on both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. I think both play. Irving returned from a 3-game absence on Friday and played 39 minutes. Doncic didn't play in that game, but he did practice fully on Thursday. Dallas has had the last two days off. That's quite a boost to their offense, which is averaging just 110.0 ppg over their last 5. 

Key is that Doncic and Irving are not good defenders. You don't got much shot containing this Memphis offense, even without Morant, if you aren't fully connected on the defensive end. Grizzlies defense hasn't been great of late, giving up 119+ in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON ILLINOIS/ARKANSAS UNDER 145:

I have to take my chances with the UNDER 145 in Thursday's matchup between No. 8 seed Arkansas and No. 9 seed Illinois. I think the fact that both of these teams like to play at a decent tempo (Arkansas 55th, Illinois 71st) has created value on the UNDER. 

Neither of these teams shoot the ball well from deep and both struggle at the foul line. Arkansas ranks 304th in 3PT% and 287th in FT%. Illinois is even worse, ranking 330th in 3PT% and 308th in FT%. There's going to be a lot of 2PT shots in this one and you have an Illinois team that ranks 16th in the country in defending the 2PT shot. Arkansas isn't that good, but are a respectable 47th. Give me the UNDER 145! 

10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/CLIPPERS OVER 229: 

I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing 230 points in this game. Clippers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late. OVER is 6-2 in LA's last 8 games. In 4 of their last 6, they have scored and allowed 120+ points in the same game. OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 for the Raptors. Toronto should be able to take advantage of the Clippers lackluster defense. I also don't see them slowing down LA's offense, especially on the road. Give me the OVER 229! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PELICANS/KINGS OVER 236.5:

Until the Kings cool off or start trying on the defensive end, the OVER has to be in serious consideration whenever they play. Since returning from the All-Star break, Sacramento has played 6 games and scored at least 123 in every game (over 130 points 3 times). They have shot better than 50% from the field in all of these games. 

During this run the Kings have allowed at least 115 points in every game. If we just take the two low marks during this run (123 and 115) that puts us at 238 points. The total should at least be that and even then I think there's value with the OVER. Give me the OVER 236.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON MAVS/SUNS OVER 232.5:

I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Sunday's big Western Conference showdown between the Mavs and Suns. No two teams got better offensively than Dallas and Phoenix at the trade deadline. The Mavs added in Kyrie Irving to give them maybe the best 1-2 punch in the league with him and Luka. Suns added in Kevin Durant, giving them quite a 1-2 punch of their own with him and Booker. Phoenix also has some other really good players. Both these teams can score 120 points in their sleep. Give me the OVER 232.5! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON IOWA STATE/WEST VIRGINIA OVER 134: I'm well aware of how bad the Cyclones offense has been in their last 3 games. Really bad. I like them to get back on track playing on their home floor. West Virginia is not a great defensive team and they have struggled to play well on that side of the ball in road games. They are allowing 46.6% shooting from the field away from home. ISU, who has shot 31% or worse twice in their last 3 games, is shooting 46.5% from the field in home games this season. 

These are also two teams that are really good at playing in chaos. ISU is No. 2 in the country in TO% defense. WV is a solid 50th in that department, they do an amazing job of speeding up their opponents with that press. Mountaineer opponents only average 16.7 seconds per possession, which is the 14th best mark in the country. 

I also look at the recent matchups between these two teams. Going back to the 2013 season, the lowest combined score in a game between ISU/W Virginia is 135 points back in 2020. The OVER is 13-1 in the L14 meetings! They combined for 147 points in a 76-71 Mountaineer win at home back on Feb. 8th. Give me the OVER 134! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON LAKERS/MAVS OVER 235.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 235.5 in Sunday's big Western Conference clash between the Lakers and Mavs. It's Lebron James/Anthony Davis vs Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. For starters, I don't think either of these teams are equipped to stop the opposing teams stars. Both of which I feel got much better offensively at the trade deadline. Lakers finally got some outside shooting and Dallas has two of the best offensive players in the game. 

When I heard about the Irving trade, the OVER is something I knew I would be leaning heavily towards in Dallas games. Irving makes them drastically better offensively and worse defensively. In the two games so far with Luka and Irving on the floor together, Dallas has scored 133 and 142 points. Both of those games eclipsed the 250 mark. Mavs have allowed each of their last 5 opponents to shoot 52% or better from the field. I think both teams easily get into the 120s. Give me the OVER 235.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON PISTONS/MAGIC OVER 226.5: I'm a little surprised this total is south of 230. These two teams aren't very good on defense to begin with. I don't see either of these non-playoff contending teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game back from the All-Star break. I think a talented Magic team is going to be eager to push the pace and attack this Pistons defense. Both teams should be willing to push the tempo given how fresh their legs are going to feel after the long break. 

OVER is 8-1 in Orlando's 9 home games this season when facing a bad defensive team that is allowing 116 or more ppg. Average combined score in these games was 242.4. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON OHIO STATE/IOWA OVER 152.5: I wanted to bet Iowa in this game, but I feel like the number here has been inflated to where there's just not enough value. I like the Hawkeyes largely because of how good they have been at home. Thing is, not only have they been great (11-3 ATS), the OVER has been great (10-4). 

That makes sense. Iowa likes to play super fast. While they have some good offensive players and are very efficiency (5th in the country), they aren't a great 3-PT shooting team (134th). Teams tend to shoot better at home. That's definitely the case for Iowa. Hawkeyes are scoring 89.0 ppg and shooting 38.5% at home this season (80.6 ppg and 35.1% on the season). 

Overs are also great at home with Iowa, because they aren't a very good defensive team. Opposing teams are shooting 48.6% from the field and 38% from 3 against them in conference play. Buckeyes are a shocking 1-11 over their last 12 games, but are 25th in offensive efficiency. They scored 93 points on 56.3% shooting. I think both teams easily eclipse the 70 point mark and this thing flies past the number. Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON MAVS/NUGGETS OVER 231.5: I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Mavs and Nuggets. I mentioned this when I took the OVER in the Mavs' last game, I just don't think the books have properly adjusted for how much better the Mavs got offensively when they adding in Kyrie Irving. Teaming two of the NBA's most skilled offensive players together. We are just in the baby stages of this and it looks great. At least offensively. The defense is a different story. It's been bad and that was to be expected. The had to give up some good depth pieces in that trade and Irving's not exactly known for his defense. 

All of it adds up the total just not being high-enough. I think on a below-average night this Mavs offense will put up close to 120. With Dallas' defensive struggles and how good the Nuggets are offensively, they too should easily hit 120. This total should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER 

Play on Timberwolves/Mavericks OVER 231.5: I just think there's tremendous value with the OVER in Mavs games right now. Dallas, who already had one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Doncic, added one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Kyrie Irving. Everything so far, looks like its going to work. Kyrie is playing amazing and in their first game with Irving/Doncic, the Mavs shot 52% from the field, with 20 made 3-pointers. Key here to the OVER, is while Irving is a nightmare on offense, he's not the best defendender. In that same game, Dallas allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the field, as they lost 128-133 in OT. 

First game they will be together at home and they are facing a Timberwolves team that is giving up 116.8 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 123.4 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games. Feels like a game where the Mavs can easily hit 130 points. That alone should have this total in the 240s. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

9* NBA Over/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON BULLS/CAVS UNDER 224: I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224 in Saturday's division matchup between the Bulls and Cavaliers. Last time these two teams played it was an all-out shootout with Donovan Mitchell scoring 71 points in a 145-134 Cavs win. That was an outlier in this series. The two teams had played each 2 days prior and combined for just 205 points. The previous 6 meetings in the series had all saw 124 or fewer points. 

Cleveland definitely won't be looking to push the pace in this one, as they will be in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a late tip-off (10:00 EST) at New Orleans on Friday. It will also be the Cavs 5th game in 7 days. You have to think Cleveland will be looking to play this game at a snails pace. Which is saying something for the team that ranks dead last in pace.

I also don't like this matchup for Chicago's offense. The Bulls do the majority of their scoring inside the 3-point line. That plays right into the strength of this Cleveland defense. Chicago also hasn't looked in sync offensively of late, scoring just 89 in a blowout loss at Memphis on Tuesday and then 105 at Brooklyn on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 224! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON KINGS/WOLVES OVER 237.5:

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. 

I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. 

I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. 

On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. 

The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. 

For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under TOTAL MASSACRE: Kings/Lakers OVER 245.5

It's crazy to think totals have got to this point in the regular season. This looks more like a total you would see back in the day at an NBA All-Star game. With that said, I don't know how you don't take a stab at the OVER 245.5 in Wednesday's game between the Lakers and Kings. 

Sacramento games have been ridiculous of late. Kings have seen a combined score of 247 or more points in 5 straight games. Only once in their last 10 games have they played in a game that finished with fewer than 230 points. 

It's not quite that extreme for the Lakers, but they are another team that is all offense and no defense. It's why LA is 2-3 in their last 5 games, despite averaging 122.4 ppg during this stretch. It's because their defense has given up 124.0 ppg in those 5 games. 

These two teams played back on Jan. 7th and it was a shootout. The two combined for 270 points in the Lakers 136-134 win. Kings have scored at least 132 points in their last 5. If they hit 130 in this one, we need just 115 from LA to cash. I think both teams could once again get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 245.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Heat/Hawks UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hawks and Heat. I'm expecting a much more defensive battle than what the books are anticipating between these two Southeast rivals. 

Miami is one of the few UNDER teams left in the NBA. Heat are Top 5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, bottom 10 in offensive efficiency and bottom 10 in Pace. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games and is 14-7 (67%) in road games this year. 

Atlanta does like to push the pace with their dynamic backcourt of Murray and Young, but it doesn't always result in great shots. Hawks are bottom 10 in the league in offensive efficiency. What people don't realize with Atlanta is they are a pretty good defensive team. Hawks are12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They come in having seen the UNDER cash in each of their last 4 games. 

They only combined for 204 points in the Heat's 106-98 win at Atlanta earlier this season and if you back over their last 8 meetings the UNDER is 7-0-1. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

8* NBA Over/UNDER Total ANNIHILATOR: 76ers/Jazz OVER 235

I'll take my chances with the OVER 235 in Saturday's NBA non-conference matchup between the 76ers and Jazz. Philadelphia is an offensive juggernaut and I don't see this Utah defense putting up much of a fight in this one, especially not in the second game of a back-to-back after last night's hard fought 112-108 win over the Magic. 76ers should also be motivated after Thursday's 114-133 embarrassing loss at home to the Thunder. It was a rare off night shooting. This team had scored 120 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. Jazz are giving up 117 ppg over their last 5 and don't have anyone to stop Embiid from doing as he pleases. Philly should do whatever they want offensively in this one and I'll count on Utah's offense to do enough to get us over the mark. Give me the OVER 235! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE: Pelicans/Pistons OVER 233.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 233.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Pistons. These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this number. Detroit's limited defensively and just aren't giving much effort at all on that side of the ball of late. In their last 6 games they have allowed at least 119 points in each game. The lowest combined score in this 6-game stretch is 230, with 4 of the 6 eclipsing 240 points. 

New Orleans has scored 117, 132 and 114 in the first 3 games of their 5-game road trip. Even without Zion and Ingram, there's a lot of guys on this team that can put the ball in the basket. I think at the very least they score 115, more than likely getting into the 120s. 

Pelicans aren't exactly playing great defense without Zion and Ingram and are giving up 117.8 ppg on 48% shooting in road games year. OVER is 14-5-1 in their 20 road games to date. In their current 3-game road trip they have allowed 127 on 57% shooting to the Mavs, 112 on 51% shooting to the Wizards and 125 on 48% shooting at Boston. Pistons just put up 135 points on 60% shooting in their last game at home vs the Timberwolves. Detroit is scoring 114.6 ppg on 47% shooting at home and come in averaging 118.6 ppg on 49% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 233.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Thunder/76ers OVER 232.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Thunder. Philly is an offensive juggernaut and just got back two of their top scorers in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In Embiid's first game back after missing a few games, they put up 147 points on 61% shooting in Tuesday's blowout win at home over the Pistons. 76ers have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, all 5 of which have gone over the total. OVER is 9-1 in Philly's last 10 games overall. 

OKC has the goods to at least try to keep this game close and push this thing past the total. Thunder come in scoring 124.6 ppg over their last 5. All 5 going OVER the total. They are also giving up 118.3 ppg on the road this season. I just don't feel the books have adjusted the number enough for this one. Give me the OVER 232.5! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5

I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. 

Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. 

Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. 

Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER: 76ers/Pistons OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances on the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Pistons. Philly cashed in plenty of OVER's with Embiid on the floor, but I feel they are an even stronger OVER team without him. Embiid is an unstoppable force on the offensive end, but he's also a beast inside defensively.

I believe the 76ers lose more on defense than they do on offense when he's out. Their offense also uses less clock not having to feed the ball inside to him and let him play 1-on-1. OVER has hit in 7 of their last 8 games. In the last two without Embiid they combined for 255 with the Pacers and 238 with the Bulls.

Detroit's not a team I think they are going to turn it up defensively and that defenses figures to struggle even more without Embiid on the road. Pistons are also not a good defensive team. Detroit has allowed 119 or more in 6 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wizards/Thunder OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Wizards and Thunder. I don't see these two teams having any trouble eclipsing this mark. OKC is averaging 118.3 ppg at home this season and come in averaging 120.8 ppg over their last 5. The average combined score in their home games is 233.9. 

Thunder are allowing 118.6 ppg in their last 5 and will be facing a Wizards offense that has put in an average of 118.6 ppg in their last 5. OVER is 4-2 in OKC's last 6 games with one of those UNDERS being in a game where they combined for 234 points (total was 238.5). In their last 6 games, 5 have seen a combined score of 234 or more. 

OVER is 30-14 in the Wizards last 44 non-conference games and 23-10 in their last 33 after playing 2 straight on the road. OVER is 26-12 in the Thunder's last 38 at home in non-conference games. Give me the OVER 231.5

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Blazers/Pacers OVER 236

I'll take my chances with the OVER 236 in Friday's matchup between the Blazers and Pacers. I really like these teams to at the very least get into the 240s. Just look at how high-scoring Indiana's games have been of late. In the Pacers last 5 games, they are scoring 128.6 ppg and giving up 122.6 ppg for an average combined score of 251.2 ppg. 

As you might have guessed, Indiana likes to push the pace and should be able to dictate the tempo at home in this one. In their last 4 games they have faced 3 of the slower teams in terms of pace in the Cavs, Clippers and 76ers. They combined for 261 with Cleveland, 261 against LA and 255 with Philly. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Pacers last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 at home vs a marginal winning team (WP between 51% to 60%). OVER is also 24-11 in Portland's last 35 non-conference road games. Give me the OVER 236! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

9* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER: Villanova/St. John's UNDER 146.5

I will take my chances with the UNDER 146.5. I just think the total here is a bit too high with the game being at Villanova and how slow paced the Wildcats prefer to play. Villanova is 349th out of 363 college DI teams in adjusted tempo. They are 316th in average possession length and 358th in opponents avg poss length (teams don't get quick shots on them).

They are just 6-5 overall, but have lost by just 2 to Michigan State and by 2 in OT to ISU. They have a win at home over a good Oklahoma team. They come in having won 4 straight. This team is going to be ready to go for their Big East Opener. 

St. Johns averages 80 ppg and 10th in tempo and 2nd in avg poss. length. I just don't think Villanova is going to let them play at their pace on their floor. The Red Storm's offensive numbers are also inflated due to them playing the 337th toughest schedule to this point. Give me the UNDER 146.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. New York is rolling right now. Knicks come in having won 6 in a row. While the defense has played well during this stretch, they are scoring a healthy 117.6 ppg over their last 5 games and that's with them only shooting 44.6% from the field in those 5 games. 

In this game they will be up against a Pacers defense that is giving up 115.8 ppg on 47% shooting for the season. Key here is I think Indiana can keep pace offensively, especially at home, where the Pacers are scoring 117.3 ppg on 47% shooting. 

These are also two teams that like to play fast. Indiana ranks 4th in the NBA in pace and the Knicks are 10th. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Kings/76ers OVER 228.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228.5 in Tuesday's matchup that has the Kings visiting the 76ers. Philadelphia has exploded offensively over the last week behind the incredible play of Joel Embiid, who is averaging a ridiculous 41.3 ppg over the first 4 games he's played in December. The 76ers have scored 123 or more in each of their last 3 games. All 3 of those games seeing a combined score of 144 or more points. 

I'm expecting another big night offensively from Embiid and the 76ers against a sub-par Kings defense. Sacramento is also playing their 4th straight on the road, so I don't expect a big effort defensively in this one. 

As for the Kings offense, I think it's poised for a big bounce back effort after scoring just 99 points on 39.8% shooting in their last game. It was the first time this season the high-powered Sacramento offense was held under 100 points. There's also a good chance the Kings get back star point guard De'Aaron Fox, who was back at practice Monday after missing the last two games. 

OVER is 31-19 in the Kings last 50 games in the last 2 seasons after going UNDER the total in their previous game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 this season when the 76ers are well-rested, playing 6 or less games in a 14 day stretch. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

10* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas/Missouri OVER 152.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 152.5 in Saturday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. This to me feels like a race to 80 points. Missouri may be 9-0 because of their schedule, but don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a good team. I think they landed a gem at head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. They got 3 guys who can get buckets with returning leading scorer Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg), Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge (16.7 ppg) and UNI transfer Noah Carter. They also get double-digits from Fordham/Clemson transfer Nick Honor (10.0 ppg) and UMass/Bradley transfer Sean East II (10.0). 

They are No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 3 in Eff. FG% and No. 2 in 2-PT%. They play at the 4th fastest game tempo in the country and own the 8th shortest average in time of possession. They are No. 4 defensively in TO%. This team wants to run and gun and keep it movin.

I don't see Kansas playing keep away. I think the Jayhawks will gladly turn this into a track meet. I also think they have the talent int he backcourt to not turn it over crazy. If you avoid the turnover, this Missouri defense has plenty of holes. 

Kansas ranks 51st in least amount of shot clock used. Yes they played a lower-scoring games vs Tennessee, Duke and Wisconsin, but all those teams rank outside the Top 125 in shot clock time used. 

Kansas has played 3 games vs teams who rank in the Top 65 in this stat. They combined for 158 in a 82-76 win over NC State (No. 39), combined for 154 with NC State in a 80-74 win (No. 43) and 156 in a 91-65 win over Seton Hall (No. 63). Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 225

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 225 in Tuesday's TNT matchup between the Nuggets and Mavs. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams in less than 3 weeks, so there's plenty of familiarity between the two. These are also two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Dallas is tied with the Mavs for dead last in the league in pace, averaging just 98.1 possessions per game. The Nuggets are 24th at just 100.4. 

The Mavs figure to especially look to slow this game down, as they will be playing on no rest after last night's 130-111 win over the Suns. We have also seen the UNDER cash in 6 of the Nuggets 8 home games this season. We should also see a strong effort defensively from both teams with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. Give me the UNDER 225! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Bulls/Suns OVER 223.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 223.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and Suns. I think the total here should be closer to 230. In the two meetings between these two teams last year they saw combined scores of 231 and 251. Chicago comes into this game playing well offensively, averaging 115.8 ppg over their last 5 and that's with the last 3 coming on the road and one of the other games at home against the Celtics. Suns have allowed over 50% shooting from the field in each of their last 2 games. Phoenix is scoring 116.2 ppg at home on 48% shooting and should be able to take advantage of a Chicago defense that struggles to defend the 3. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bucks/Knicks OVER 228

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Bucks. The books have really had a hard time setting the totals high enough in Knicks' home games this season. The OVER is 7-2 in New York's 9 home games and it's easy to see why. The Knicks are scoring 122.7 ppg on 48% shooting and giving up 122.2 ppg on 48% shooting. I don't think Milwaukee will have any problem taking advantage of that soft Knicks defense, especially with New York playing on no rest after last night's 140-110 win at Detroit. Bucks are a good defensive team, but have been slipping on that side of late, giving up 111.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 228! 

8* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Baylor/Marquette UNDER 155.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 155.5 in Tuesday's Big 12/Big East showdown between Marquette and Baylor. I just think we are seeing an inflated number here due to the fact that these two teams come in having put up big time offensive numbers early on. The Bears are scoring 91.2 ppg and the Golden Eagles are putting up 80.3 ppg. 

What people overlook with these two teams is their defense. Both of these teams rank in the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. My real concern here is with Marquette and them being able to generate enough offense to push this into the 160s. Golden Eagles are No. 17 in the country in 2P% and No. 229 in 3P%. I just don't know if they are going to be able to attack this Baylor defense inside. 

Keep in mind the one really good defense they played so far was Mississippi State and they managed just 55 points. I know some of that is the Bulldogs dreadfully slow pace, but with a total this high I just think there's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 155.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nebraska-Omaha/Iowa OVER 156.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 156.5 in Monday's non-conference matchup between Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha. I just don't think this total is near enough, as I really think we could see this Iowa team push the 100 point mark in this one. 

The Hawkeyes have been elite on the offensive end to start the year. They are 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also love to push the tempo, ranking 37th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average possession length. That offense is going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mavericks rank 333rd out of 363 DI schools in adjusted defensive efficiency. We saw Kansas put up 89 on them earlier this year and as good as the Jayhawks are, they are just 24th in Adj OE and 29th in possession length. 

The other big thing difference between Iowa and Kansas is the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good defensively. There are plenty of easy buckets to be had against this Iowa defense. I also think this is not a game where the Hawkeyes are going to be all that locked in defensively. One, it's hard to play all out on defense when you are scoring at will. Two, it's a bit of a flat spot for their defense coming off that big win over Seton Hall, it being Thanksgiving week and a big game on deck against Clemson looming Friday. Give me the OVER 156.5! 

9* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Iowa/Seton Hall OVER 150

I'll take my chances with the OVER 150 in Wednesday's Big East/Big Ten clash that has Iowa going on the road to face Seton Hall. Both of these teams have been impressive out of the gate, going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. Both teams have really looked good offensively. Iowa comes in with the No. 3 ranked offense in the country in adjusted efficiency. One thing Hawkeye's head coach Fran McCaffery knows how to do is get his offense to produce at a high level. Even with the loss of a star in Keegan Murray, this Iowa team is extremely deep and talented. 

As for Seton Hall, the Pirates have been really good offensively too. They put up 79 points in their opener against Monmouth and 80 at home against St Peters last time out. Iowa is definitely a team they should be able to find some easy baskets against. As for the great defensive numbers for Seton Hall, that's more of who they have played. Monmouth is currently ranked 304th in adjusted offensive efficiency and St. Peter's is 252nd. Give me the OVER 150! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Under 226

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 226 in Thursday's game between the Pelicans and Blazers. These have to be two tired teams going into this matchup. Both teams will be on no rest after playing last night and both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 days. Both also had to travel to Portland for this matchup, with New Orleans ending a 3-game road trip in Chicago last night and the Blazers continuing on their 6-game road trip, which doesn't end until Saturday's game in Dallas. 

Portland is also an UNDER team, as they come into this game T-26th in Pace and T-7th in defensive efficiency. UNDER has gone 5-1 in the Blazers 6 road games this season, 3-1 when playing a team with a winning record and 3-1 vs high-scoring teams like the Pelicans who are averaging 116+ points/game. Give me the UNDER 226! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Nets/Mavs OVER 225

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225 in Thursday's matchup between the Nets and Mavs. Given what we have seen out of Dallas offensively and the struggles Brooklyn is having on the defensive end I'm shocked this total isn't the 230s. 

The Mavs ranked No. 1 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions. They will be up against a Brooklyn defense that is 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. The only other team Dallas has faced in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency is the Grizzlies who are 29th at 116.6. The Mavs put up 137 points on Memphis. On top of all that, you have to wonder just how much juice the Brooklyn defense will have playing in the second leg of a back-to-back after an even bigger game last night at Milwaukee. 

I know the Mavs defense has played well, but I think it can be difficult to bring that energy defensively when you are scoring at such an easy clip on the other side. Brooklyn also has two of the best scorers in the game in Durant and Irving. If the Nets simply hit their season average of 110.0 ppg, I think this game flies by the number. Give me the OVER 225! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

9* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pelicans/Jazz OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Jazz. New Orleans has been one of the best offensive teams in the early going. The Pelicans are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, trailing only the Celtics. They are also No. 7 in the NBA in pace of play. This is not a huge surprise given they added the likes of Zion Williamson. The big surprise is what we have seen out of Utah in two games. The Jazz were expected to be in full on tank mode this season, yet they have come out and won their first two games, scoring 123 at home against the Nuggets and 132 on the road against the T-Wolves. Utah is No. 4 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in pace of play. Look for both teams to hit the 120 mark in this one. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Wizards/Pacers UNDER 228

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 228 in Wednesday's season opener between the Wizards and Pacers. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated total here, as people remember how bad this Indiana team was defensively to close out last year. The big reason for that was the loss of their best defensive player, Myles Turner. Having him back instantly makes them better on that side of the ball. As for the Wizards, they got some nice offensive pieces, but being better defensively is a huge priority for this team under head coach Wes Unseld Jr. The defensive numbers weren't great in Unseld's first year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Look for this one to stay under the mark. Give me the UNDER 2228.5!

9* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: 76ers/Celtics OVER 216

I don't think the total is near enough for this opening night matchup between the Celtics and 76ers. I'll gladly take my chances with these two going over 216. I just think after watching Boston make a run to the NBA Finals last year on the coattails of their defense, their defense is a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season. That's because they are missing big man Robert Williams, who is the guy that made their defense so good. His ability to protect the rim, allowed the other guys to really close out aggressively on the 3-point shot. 

Not only are they missing him, but they are facing one of the most skilled big men in the league in Joel Embiid. I don't think Boston will have an answer for him. I also think James Harden could be in for a big bounce back season. Harden looks to be in the best shape he's been in years. Philly has two other guys who can light it up in Maxey and Harris. This should be one of the best offenses in the league. 

There's rumors that Boston will be looking to push the pace a little more and it's not like they don't have the guys who can excel in transition. They got two elite scorers in Tatum and Brown. I also think the addition of Brogdon will help the offense. I don't think Philly is a team they want to attack in the half court. Look for this to easily get into the 220s. Give me the OVER 216! 

Heat/Celtics Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 201.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 201.5 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Jimmy Butler on one leg, Tyler Herro out with a hamstring injury and Kyle Lowry playing at less than 100%, the Heat just don't have the offensive fire-power to score 100 points against one of the best defenses in the NBA. Miami scored just 82 points in Game 4 at Boston and 80 in Game 5 at home. 

I have a hard time seeing the Heat going off on the road in Game 6. With that said, Miami is not going to lay down. The Heat are going to do whatever they can to be competitive and there only way of being competitive is to make this game as ugly as possible and hope the Celtics miss some shots. Even so, Boston shot a solid 47% from the field in Game 5 and still only managed to score 93 points. Getting to 100 figures to be a struggle for both teams tonight. Give me the UNDER 201.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212) 

We just keep playing the UNDER in the Bucks playoff games and will continue to do so as long as the books keep giving us this value. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoffs games (5-0 in Bulls series and now 3-0 in this series). 

I've said it multiple times playing the UNDER in this series that I just think these two teams are so good defensively that it's going to be a struggle for them to get to 100 points. We have seen each team fail to score 90 in a game this series. We also saw a mere 195 points scored in Game 2 with both teams shooting close to 47% from the field. Give me the UNDER 212! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 207.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 2 between the Heat and 76ers. We played and won on the UNDER at 209 in Game 1. That game ended with Miami winning 106-92. It was almost like Miami flipped a switch in the 2nd half, as they went from being down 50-51 to winning by 14. 76ers only managed 41 points in the 2nd half. I don't think it's going to get any easier for them offensively now that Miami knows what they want to do without Embiid. 

Philly isn't going to just lie down because they don't have Embiid. They will fight and I think they are good enough defensively to keep the Heat's offense in check, especially with Miami having to play another game without point guard Kyle Lowry. I just think it will once again be a struggle for both of these teams to get to 100. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 229 in Game 6 between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games in the series. As good as these two offenses are, a lot has to go right for a playoff game to get into the 230s, especially this late in a series when the teams know all the offensive sets the other team wants to run. Strictly a value play for me. Give me the UNDER 229! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) 

We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. 

That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. 

As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. 

As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) 

I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. 

You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. 

UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 211.5 between the Warriors and Heat. Golden State has not played great without Steph Curry and Draymond called out their lackluster play after the most recent loss at Orlando. I think we get a pretty big effort here from the Warriors against a top tier team like Miami. 

Key here is Golden State has to really rely on their defense without Curry. They have scored 88, 108 and 90 in their last 3 games. It won't be any easier against a very good Miami defense. I just don't see enough offense from the Warriors to get this into the 210s. Give me the UNDER 211.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.

Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. 

I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 between the Hawks and Pelicans. I think we are getting a good number here due to Ingram being out for New Orleans and it looking like Trae Young could sit for the Hawks. 

New Orleans' offense has been just fine without Ingram, as they got McCollum to shoulder the load. Atlanta jus scored 120 without Young against the Grizzlies. 

You also got two teams who aren't exactly playing a ton of defense. Pelicans are allowing teams to shot 50% from the field over their last 5 and the Hawks are right there with them, giving up 49%. Look for a lot of offense in this one. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in Friday's game between the Cavs and 76ers. Philadelphia was a good offensive team before they traded for James Harden. With him, they have taken their offense to a whole different level. In the 3 games with Harden Philly has scored 133, 125 and 123 points respectively. All 3 of those games have ween over the total. 

Cleveland's defense has been one of their strengths this season, but they aren't defending well since the break. They just gave up 119 at home to the Hornets and the game prior to that they allowed 127 to the Timberwolves at home. 

I just don't see Cleveland being able to hold this explosive 76ers offense under 120 points and at the same time you got to like the Cavs being able to score at least 100. The total should not be less than 220. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 236.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number with the OVER 236.5 in Sunday's NBA game between the Pacers and Timberwolves. The OVER has been a money-maker of late in Minnesota games, cashing in 15 of their last 18 games. In 5 of their last 6 games they have seen a combined score in the 140s with the only exception coming against an awful Pistons team and even that game saw a respectable 123 points. 

Indiana is a complete mess on the defensive end as they are adjusting to a slew of new players and continue to play without some of their key pieces. Pacers are giving up 118.4 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5. 

Key here is the Pacers should be able to keep pace for the most part with Minnesota's offense, especially playing at home. Indiana has some guys who can score the ball and the Timberwolves are giving up 117.1 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 120.4 ppg over their last 5. Give me the OVER 236.5! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 147) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 147 between Purdue and Maryland. In the Terps last two games their defense has given up 82 to Ohio State and 110 to Iowa. Buckeyes rank 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, while the Hawkeyes are 5th. Now they face a Boilermakers team that is No. 1 in the country in that departement. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Purdue hit the century mark. You know they are going to be motivated offensively after scoring just 58 points in a blowout loss at Michigan last time out. 

The key here is that Purdue is far from a great offensive team, so we should see Maryland have a strong day offensively as well. The Boilermakers are just 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 11th in effective FG% defense. My numbers have this thing closer to 155 than 145. Give me the OVER 147! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) 

I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. 

I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. 

Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 227)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 227 in Tuesday's matchup between the Clippers and Grizzlies. I see this thing easily getting to 230. Memphis has scored 118 or more points in each of their last 6 games. Grizzlies figures to look to really push the pace in this one, as they will have fresh legs, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

As for the Clippers, they have scored 110+ points in 7 straight games and the recent addition of Norman Powell only bolsters their offense. Powell scored 28 points in just 24 minutes in his debut with LA after being acquired in a trade with Portland. 

You also have to look at what the Clippers have been doing defensively here of late. LA's really struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 120+ in 3 of their last 5. Memphis is also no juggernaut defensively. Give me the OVER 227! 

40* (CBB) - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER (Under 137.5) 

The two best defensive teams in the Big Ten will be facing off in this game and I just see too much value at 137.5 to not take a shot on the UNDER. Illinois is only giving up 66.4 ppg in Big Ten play and Indiana allows a mere 63.8 ppg.

Not that long ago we saw Indiana host Purdue, who is statistically the best offense in the country. Boilermakers have a 116 OE (Offensive Efficiency) rating and the next best is Michigan at 110.8. That game only saw 133 points scored and that was with both teams having a pretty good shooting night. 

I think the fact that Indiana is favored (-1.5) also tells you a lot about how the books think this game will go. They think the Hoosiers can win this game and I believe that a low-scoring ugly game is their ticket to success. Give me the UNDER 137.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) 

This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. 

As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 228.5) 

I really like the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Bulls and Blazers. I think this game easily gets into the 230's. Both of these teams come into this game really feeling good about themselves offensively. In Portland's last two games they have shot 51.2% against the Mavs and 56.8% against the Rockets. Similar story for the Bulls, who have shot 54.8% against the Raptors and 52.3% against the Spurs in their last two. 

Both teams are also not at full strength defensively. Chicago is without two of their best perimeter defenders in Ball and Caruso, while the Blazers recently loss one of their better defenders in Nassir Little. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Rockets. I've been backing Portland quite a bit of late, but just don't like the spot here with this being the Blazers 4th game in 6 days and Houston playing on a full 2 days of rest. 

I think this has a good chance to be the highest scoring game of the night. Portland's defense has taken a huge hit with the loss of Nassir Little and one of their other better defenders, Robert Covington, is questionable with a knee injury. Add in the tough scheduling spot and I just don't see the Blazers having much to give on the defensive side. 

Good news for the Blazers offense is the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. That combined with Houston playing at the fastest pace in the NBA this year, makes them a great OVER team when it's a plus matchup for their offense. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 138.5) 

This total is way too low. Neither of these defenses are all that great. Both are giving up 70+ ppg in conference play. Commodores have allowed 71.6 ppg and the Gators are allowing 73.4 ppg. 

Both defense figure to struggle given the matchups. Florida's biggest weakness is defending the 3-pt shot. They rank 12th in the SEC in 3-PT% defense. Vanderbilt's strength offensively is there 3-PT shooting. They rank 4th in the SEC in that department. 

The Gators offense is built to score inside the arc, as they are 2nd in the SEC in 2-PT% offense. That's where the Commodores defense struggles. Vandy is 2nd vs the 3-PT shot and 12th vs the 2-PT shot. 

I got both teams eclipsing 70-points and even if one team fails to get there, we still got a great shot at cashing this ticket. Play the OVER 138.5! 

40* (CBB) Early Bird Total KNOCKOUT (Over 154) 

I don't think these two teams will have any problem eclipsing 154 points. Duke is going to be without freshman Trevor Keels, who has been a reliable 3-point shooter, but I don't think it matters in this matchup. The Orange aren't just one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC, they are 226th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 253rd in defensive effective FG%. They rank 277th in 2-PT% defense. 

Duke should be able to do whatever they want offensively in this game and I got a hard time seeing them finishing with fewer than 80 points at home. 

While the Blue Devils are good defensive team, they are far from elite and they are going to have their hands full against a very good Syracuse offense. Orange rank 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in 3-PT%. They just played a game at home against Clemson that they won 91-78. That's where I see this game. Somewhere in the 160s. Give me the OVER 154! 

50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. 

It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. 

They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). 

I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. 

Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215

50* (CBB) Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 151.5) 

I love the OVER 151.5 in Sunday's Big 10 showdown between Minnesota and Iowa. This Hawkeyes team is all offense and no defense. Iowa ranks No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency. Their only hope of winning games against quality teams is to outscore them. 

It's why they are 2-3 in Big Ten play, despite averaging 78.8 ppg. They give up 80.0 ppg. So while the Gophers are only scoring 64.8 ppg in Big Ten play, it would take a real bad shooting day for them to not get into the 70s at home against this Iowa defense. 

The other big thing is, is this Minnesota defense doesn't figure to be able to slow down Iowa's offense. The Gophers are 12th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. I think this total should be closer to 160 than 150. Give me the OVER 151.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 215) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215 in Friday's ESPN matchup between the Grizzlies and Mavericks. The UNDER has cashed in 7 of the last 8 games for Dallas. The 7 games that went UNDER the total all saw 212 or fewer points scored. The only exception came against the Rockets. 

Not only is Dallas defending well during this stretch, they like to slow the game down. While Memphis has been clicking offensively, I don't think they will mind the slower pace tonight. Grizzlies will be playing on no rest after hosting the T-Wolves last night. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

Memphis is also a much better defensive team than people realize. Grizzlies rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency. They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. Give me the UNDER 215! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 220.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 220.5 in tonight's matchup between the Clippers and Suns. I think with Phoenix forced to play small with Ayton and McGree, they are playing with a little more pace. They just finished up their two game road trip scoring 133 on 51% shooting at Charlotte and 123 on 54% shooting at New Orleans. 

I got to think with this being a big game on TNT (these games get a lot more hype now that there's no football on Thursday nights), the Suns are going to want to put on a show. 

The other big thing is the Clippers aren't exactly locking teams down on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up 116 points or more in each of their last 3 and teams are averaging a healthy 96.8 possessions per game in their last 4. 

Clippers are also fairing better offensively here of late than you might think with Paul George sidelined. LA has shot 49% or better in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 220.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in tonight's non-conference game between the Heat and Blazers. There's a lot of big names that won't be on the floor for both teams, which has created the value with the total. 

Portland's been without Lillard and McCollum for a few games now. While the offensive numbers aren't all that great, it's the defense that has caught my attention. The Blazers are giving up 126.6 ppg on 54.5% shooting over their last 5 games. 

Miami is a team that is known for playing good defense, but they aren't locking teams down right now with all the guys out. Heat have allowed 110 or more in each of their last 4. This is also a big flat spot for Miami who was at Golden State on Monday and next up after this game is a showdown at Phoenix with the Suns on Saturday. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 139.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total for Wednesday's Big East clash between Providence and Seton Hall. Neither of these teams shoot the 3-ball all that well and both are pretty stout defensively. 

Providence is also a team that wants to play slow. They rank 219th in adjusted tempo. They should be able to dictate the tempo at home. At the same time, Seton Hall's defense is really good. Their opponents average possession length is 18.1, which is 309th longest in the country. 

The other big thing is the spot. Seton Hall hasn't played since Dec. 12 and Providence has been off since Dec. 18th. You got think both of these offenses will be a little rusty. Give me the UNDER 139.5! 

40* (NBA) - Christmas Day Total DESTROYER (Under 228.5) 

I was shocked to see the total for the Suns/Warriors game on Christmas Day pushing 230. These two teams have already played twice this year and neither one was all that high scoring. The Suns won 104-96 at home in the first meeting and Golden State responded with a 118-96 win in the rematch. 

Not only will the familiarity help keep the scoring down, but we almost always get these huge defensive efforts in these Christmas games, which leads to a lot of UNDERs cashing at the ticket window. I just don't see this game getting into the 220s. Give me the UNDER 228.5! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (OVER 148) 

I see Alabama and Davidson having no problem going OVER the total of 148. The Wildcats haven't seen an offense anywhere close to what they will be up against tonight in Alabama. The Crimson Tide rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and are 10th in average possession length.

The best team Davidson has played so far in terms of offensive efficiency is San Francisco, who is 73rd, but the Dons are just 205th in possession length. ECU is the fastest team they have played in possession length and they rank 98th. 

On the flip side, Alabama has faced 4 teams this season that rank in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency and all 4 of those teams scored at least 78 points. Davidson ranks 29th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are also 4th in 3-PT% at 41.6%. Crimson Tide faced a very similar team in South Dakota State, who ranked 19th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in 3-PT% and that game was won 104-88 by Alabama. Give me the OVER 148! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5) 

This game will look like an exhibition game with all the guys that won't play for both teams. The biggest story here being what the Nets will have to work with. Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Bembry, Bruce Brown, Paul Milsap, Joe Harris and James Johnson are all out. Kyrie also won't play with it being a home game and Nicolas Claxton is questionable. 

It's not much better for the Magic, who have 11 guys ruled out and Cole Anthony questionable. I just think there's not going to be enough offensive talent on the floor for this game to get into the 200's and we got a total north of 210. Give me the UNDER 211.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 208) 

I really like the UNDER in tonight's game between the Raptors and Warriors. Golden State will be without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andre Iguodala. Not having Curry on the floor alone is huge for the UNDER. 

Key here is that this Warriors team has shown they will come out to win regardless of who is on the floor and this feels like a game where some of those young guys show out. It's not all good for the Raptors either, as they got a number of guys on the injury report. Give me the UNDER 208! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) 

I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. 

Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. 

It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 158.5) 

This might be a little bit of a square play taking a public OVER with a high total, but I just don't think 158.5 is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. Everyone knows that Purdue is good. They were expected to be coming in and they are not only scoring 92.4 ppg, they are ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

Iowa wasn't suppose to be this good. Not after losing two guys to the NBA, including the player of the year in Garza. They are and it's because they got another NBA caliber guy shouldering the load in sophomore Keegan Murray, who is averaging 24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg and 2.3 bpg. 

The Hawkeyes offense is averaging 94.0 ppg and are No.3  in the country in offensive efficiency. I did have some concern whether the offense was just beating up on bad teams, but to go on the road and put up 75 points on 54% shooting against a defensive minded Virginia team (Cavs hadn't given up 70 in a game prior to that) tells me their offense is the real deal. 

The other big thing is Iowa's defense let a bad Virginia offense score 74 and shoot 53%. That's concerning given that was the first offense they had faced this year that ranked inside the Top 220 in offensive efficiency (Virginia is No. 78). Purdue is going to score at will. Give me the OVER 158.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time. 

I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else. 

As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40. 

I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 140) 

Based on the spread, the books are projecting a score here with a total of 140 in the lines of something like Memphis 76-64 and I just don't see it. I think as good as the Cyclones looked in their upset win over Xavier, they are going to have a miserable time trying to score against this Memphis defense.

The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency right now. They are No. 4 in 2pt% defense and No. 3 in block%. Iowa State simply doesn't have the shooting to get a lot of easy looks in this one. The key here is I think the Cyclones can hold their own defensively and make it tough on Memphis to get to 70 points. Give me the UNDER 140! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 143) 

I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 143 in Wednesday's early matchup between No. 22 UConn and No. 19 Auburn in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. I think we are seeing an inflated total due to the big numbers that these two teams have put up early against some much weaker defenses. 

UConn is one of the highest scoring teams in the country right now, as they are averaging 92.0 ppg on 50.2% shooting. That's going to happen when you are as talented as the Huskies against the schedule they have faced. UConn's highest ranked team they have played in KenPom's rankings is LIU at No. 275. The other 3 teams all ranked outside the Top 315. All of those teams rank outside the Top 200 in defensive efficiency. 

Now they face an Auburn team that is 34th in the country in defensive efficiency and 31st in effective field goal defense. Tigers also rank 7th in the country in block%. 

Auburn is averaging 76.0 ppg, but we saw how their offense looked against a good defense in their last game, as they managed just 58 points against a USF team that ranks 91st in defensive efficiency and 32nd in effective FG%. UConn is a big step up for them as well, as they are 19th in defensive efficiency and 5th in EFG%. Give me the UNDER 143!