The Astros are 1-7 in their last eight games and in danger of being swept by the Cubs.

So why back Houston here? Three reasons: Justin Verlander, a rested Josh Hader and the Cubs have key injuries.

Verlander gives the floundering Astros credibility on the mound. He's facing Javier Assad. Hader, who has been the most dominant reliever entering this season, has had ample rest.

The Cubs will be minus Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Bellinger leads the Cubs in RBI's while Suzuki has driven in the third most runs for Chicago.

Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today.

This is Texas' first game at home in 12 days since returning from a 10-game road trip. The Rangers are up against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert is an emerging star with a 1-0 record and 2.33 ERA. He gets overlooked in Seattle's pitching staff because of Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but he's one of the best No. 3 starters in the league. Gilbert has a 2.88 career ERA vs the Rangers in 10 starts.

Texas starter Dane Dunning isn't in Gilbert's class with a 2-1 record and 3.91 ERA. Dunning has a 4.28 lifetime ERA against Seattle in eight starts.

Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven.

But the Red Sox are in trouble in this game. O'Neil is likely to miss his third straight game because of a concussion. Boston's bullpen is below average and this is going to be a bullpen game for them.

Reliever Brennan Bernardino is slated to start for the Red Sox. He's only expected to pitch one or two innings followed by Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox have a 4.11 bullpen ERA.

By contrast, the Guardians rank No. 2 in the majors in bullpen ERA at 2.15. This is a huge plus for Cleveland's aged starter Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed two earned runs during his past 7 2/3 innings and has a respectable 3.55 ERA.

Given these circumstances, I'll go with the Guardians especially in an underdog role.

Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. 

I'm not buying the Brewers, though, as a top team. The Padres have the superior offensive players and a strong edge in pitching with a matchup of Joe Musgrove vs Joe Ross. Musgrove's ERA the past three years is 3.05, 2.93 and 3.18. Ross is a reclamation project, who has missed much of the past two seasons because of elbow surgery. 

The Brewers' timely hitting could be rounding its course. Milwaukee stranded 15 runners in scoring position during its 6-4 loss to the Orioles on Sunday. The Brewers remain without injured Christian Yelich. 

The Padres are off a, 6-3, road win against the Dodgers last night. However, Milwaukee also has to travel. The Brewers haven't been home in eight days, having just concluded a seven-game road trip against the Orioles and Reds.

I'm looking for the Angels to bounce back and beat Boston after losing to the Red Sox last night. Trevor Story was injured in that game. That could bother the Red Sox in this matchup. It certainly hurts their middle infield situation.

I'm high on Angels starter Reid Detmers. He was sharp in his first outing this season holding the Orioles, a top-eight offense, to one run on two hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. The Angels won that game, 4-1.

Boston starter Garrett Whitlock had a 5.15 ERA last season. He's not a big innings guy and the Red Sox bullpen already is beginning to pile up innings.

We knew the A's were going to be terrible this season and they certainly have lived up to expectations. The 1-4 A's have been outscored, 38-11. They have committed more errors with 13 than they have scored runs.

If the price isn't too high, the A's are an auto-fade. I can live with this price in a pitching matchup of Brayan Bello vs washed-up 33-year-old Alex Wood.

The Red Sox have underrated starting pitching and Bello is one reason for that. He looked good in his first start opening day, holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits in five innings in a 6-4 victory.

Wood has a 16.20 ERA after giving up six runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in his first start this season, an 8-0 loss to the Guardians .He has never beaten the Red Sox.

I'll back Cleveland at around a pick price against Seattle in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie vs Emerson Hancock.

I have McKenzie ranked two tiers higher than Hancock.

McKenzie had a 2.96 ERA two seasons ago showing tremendous promise. However, he made only four starts because of injuries last season. McKenzie enters this year healthy. He had a much better spring training than Hancock with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings compared to Hancock's 10.24 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Hancock had a 4.50 ERA last year.

The Guardians aren't going to set any power records, but the Mariners averaged only 2.5 runs while batting .178 in four games against the Red Sox to open the season. Seattle hitters struck out 45 times in the four-game series.

The Royals should be much improved this season, but the Twins are superior and the price is short enough to get involved backing Minnesota. 

Kansas City has some promising hitters. The Twins have proven hitters and a much more reliable bullpen even with Jhoan Duran out.

Oh, yes, the Twins hold a huge starting pitcher edge with Joe Ryan facing Seth Lugo.

Ryan is in my second tier of top American League pitchers, way above Lugo. Ryan has dominated the Royals in his career, too, with a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA. 

The Twins won against Cole Ragans, a much better pitcher than Lugo, in the series opener. They can certainly win against Lugo.

I'm not counting the Diamondbacks out yet. Not with Zac Gallen pitching at home and Adolis Garcia out.

Nathan Eovaldi versus Gallen was the Game 1 pitching matchup. Neither pitcher made it to the sixth inning. The Diamondbacks led 5-3 until the Rangers tied in the ninth and won in extra innings.

Gallen didn't pitch that well, but Eovaldi was worse. That game was in Texas, too.

Now Gallen is back pitching at home where he was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA during the regular season.

Garcia being out with an oblique injury can't be underestimated either. He's the Rangers' top power hitter.

The Diamondbacks have proven resilient all season. I'm not ready to give up on them - at least not at this value price.

The Rangers are lucky to have the World Series even at 1-1 after pulling out an extra inning win. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Rangers, 14-7, and now are coming home for Game 3. Texas had a losing road record during the regular season.

Yet this Game 3 is being priced as a toss-up. It's time to start respecting the Diamondbacks. The Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies all discovered that the hard way. It's also time to realize that 39-year-old Max Scherzer is past his prime and not fully healthy.

Scherzer had a 9.45 ERA in two postseason starts against the Astros this month. He is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA in 29 lifetime playoff appearances. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying he's just looking for innings from Scherzer, rather than his one-time dominance, since the Rangers have a vulnerable bullpen.

I prefer Diamondbacks' rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who showed he could do the job under pressure when he shut out the Phillies on two hits with nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Pfaadt has pitched 16 2/3 innings in the playoffs. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

After sweeping the Rangers three games in Texas, the Astros return to Houston for this Game 6. That's bad news for the Astros.

The Astros were 39-42 at home during the regular season and are 1-3 at Minute Maid Park in the postseason.

I don't see ineffective Framber Valdez turning that around. Valdez had a 4.66 ERA after the All-Star break. He's been terrible in the playoffs giving up nine earned runs in two starts. He has a 7.30 ERA in his last seven home starts.

On the flip side is Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. He's been excellent in the postseason with a 3-0 record and 2.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke. He's 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 playoff appearances, including nine starts.

Taking the Rangers at a plus price is a no-brainer.

Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though.

This is going to be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies had smacked 19 homers in their previous eight playoff games this season before last night. I see them getting back on track. Philadelphia is averaging 5.6 runs during its last 10 games.

Lefty Cristopher Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies. He had a solid 3.44 ERA in 19 appearances this season, including 18 starts. The Diamondbacks have below average numbers against southpaws in several major categories, including slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

The momentum has shifted in this series with the Astros dealing the Rangers their first loss of the playoffs. I'm going to ride the Astros here as the underdog. 

Houston is 17-3 in its last 20 road games. The Astros especially like playing in Arlington. The Astros are 7-1 this year there against Texas, averaging 8.9 runs in those games.

This is an action play for me, but I do favor Houston, too, in a pitching matchup of Jose Urquidy versus lefty Andrew Heaney. Urquidy has a 1.74 ERA in his last three appearances. He has a 5-0 career mark versus the Rangers with a 2.82 ERA in seven starts. 

The Astros have very good numbers against lefthanded pitching, including No. 2 in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS and fifth in batting average.

The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros.

The last time the Astros were in Arlington was early last month and they went 3-0 against Texas scoring 13, 14 and 12 runs smacking 16 homers.

The Astros have their playoff stud, Christian Javier, on the mound. He has yet to give up a run in three postseason starts during his career spanning 16 1/3 innings.

Opposing Javier is Max Scherzer. Now Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, but this isn't an ideal spot for him. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 12 after sustaining a muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. The Rangers are hoping to get around 70 pitches from Scherzer.

The Astros torched Scherzer for seven runs in three innings when they buried Texas, 12-3, on Sept. 6.

The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener.

No letup now from the Phillies. They are strong favorites for this Game 2 home game and I see them coming through in a pitching matchup of Merrill Kelly versus Aaron Nola.

Kelly had a 2.59 home ERA, but his road ERA during the regular season was 4.07. He's also been giving up too many walks - 18 in his last six starts. The Phillies, with their top-10 offense, can take advantage. They are averaging 5.6 runs in their last eight games.

Nola was a solid 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA when pitching at Citizens Bank Park.

Perhaps it was the pressure of playing in their first home playoff game in nine years before a packed crowd. But the Orioles let Game 1 of their playoff series against the Rangers slip by in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. 

The Orioles have proven resilient all season. I see them bouncing back behind rookie pitcher Grayson Rodriguez against lefty Jordan Montgomery. 

Rodriguez, a high ceiling prospect, found his groove down the home stretch. He didn't allow more than two earned runs during any of his last six starts. Rodriguez was 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. 

Texas finished the regular season with a losing road record. Baltimore was 49-32 at home.

The Orioles also were 36-17 versus lefty starters. No other team had more than 30 victories against southpaw starters. 

Montgomery has been pitching well, too. But he has a 3.72 day time ERA and the Orioles were in the top-10 in many offensive categories against lefties including, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. 

The Orioles were far-and-away the most profitable team for bettors this season. I have no qualms backing them at this low of a home lay price.

The Diamondbacks are on house money after upsetting the Brewers, 6-3, in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Brewers on Tuesday. Arizona scored six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings off Milwaukee's two best pitchers, Corbin Burnes and closer Devin Williams.

Now the pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus Freddy Peralta.

Gallen is the superior pitcher yet Arizona is an underdog. I'll take the plus price with the loose Diamondbacks and with Gallen, who in two starts against the Brewers this season held Milwaukee to one earned run on six hits and two walks with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history.

Minnesota has lost 18 consecutive postseason games!

The Blue Jays had a better regular season record than the Twins. Gausman is a better pitcher than Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez. Yet the Twins opened as the favorite.

Gausman is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA. He led the AL in strikeouts with 237 in 185 innings. Lopez is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA.

Wrong team favored, so I'll be on the Blue Jays.

The Cardinals have been one of the major disappointments of the season. That's the way they're finishing, too.

St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Cardinals are averaging a puny 2.1 runs per game during their last 10 games.

The Reds are 6-3 in their past nine road games. They are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, which should ensure motivation and a strong effort.

The pitching matchup is rookie Brandon Williamson versus Jake Woodford. I like Williamson better although this is an action play. Woodford is taking the place of Adam Wainwright, who was shut down after earning his 200th career victory. Woodford has a 5.09 ERA.

Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night.

So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over.

It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run.

The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means.

Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday.

Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore.

Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties.

Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified.

The Brewers have dropped three consecutive games. But they still were able to clinch the National League Central Division title on Tuesday when the Cubs lost to the Braves.

Milwaukee isn't playing that well, doesn't have much incentive after clinching last night and is facing lefty, Zack Thompson. He's mediocre at best, but the Brewers don't hit lefties very well. They rank in the bottom-12 in the major categories versus southpaws. Milwaukee is 20-25 against lefties.

The Cardinals are looking to close a very disappointing season on a strong note. They draw veteran journeyman Wade Miley.

At this plus price, I'll fade Milwaukee given the circumstances.

Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times.

The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse.

I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games.

The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games.

Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road.

This is a cheap price to get the Rays, who have won 20 more games than the 76-81 Red Sox.

Tampa Bay is averaging seven runs in its last three games and draws Brayan Bello, a promising pitcher who has hit the wall with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Bello was shelled by the Rangers in his past start last Wednesday giving up eight runs in three innings.

The Rays hold a big edge on the mound starting Tyler Glasnow, who is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 10 career starts versus Boston. He faced the Red Sox earlier this month and struck out 14 in six innings allowing just one run.

Tampa Bay has owned Boston this season winning 10 of the 12 meetings.

The Guardians are out of the playoff chase. The Reds are not. Cincinnati is in must-win mode and have hot Hunter Greene going against disappointing Lucas Giolito.

Greene is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts against the Twins this past Wednesday. Greene is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his past four starts. He has 35 strikeouts in his last 24 innings.

Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. He's been tagged for 37 homers. He's becoming more of a journeyman than an above average starter. Giolito's teams are 2-12 during his last 14 starts.

The Reds are playing a lot of youth. Their young players are highly talented. They are on house money so they should be loose and not feel the pressure.

The Padres waited way too long. But they are on a season-best 9-1 hot streak. The Giants are going the opposite way - 2-8 in their last 10 games.

San Francisco has ace Logan Webb pitching at home here. Webb, however, is trumped by Blake Snell, the most effective pitcher in the National League.

Snell's season numbers are 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 174 innings. Webb can't match that at 10-13 with a 3.35 ERA.
What's so impressive about Snell, though, is his current form. He's working on 13 straight scoreless innings, allowing only two base runners in his past two starts. Snell is 5-1 career-wise against San Francisco with a 1.83 ERA.

San Diego is 10-1 in Snell's last 11 starts.

Rarely will I go against Webb when he pitches at home. But this is the exception, getting the much hotter team with the best pitcher in the league at a low lay price.

The pitching matchup is Shane Bieber versus Dean Kremer. That is misleading. So are the Guardians being the favorites.

Cleveland is eight games below .500 on the season. Baltimore is 37 games above .500.

The Guardians are trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. It's not realistic. The Orioles have motivation, too, being just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East.

Bieber isn't the Bieber of past dominant seasons. He was 5-6 with a 3.77 ERA before going on the IL following his July 9 start. He hadn't pitched since and will be on around an 80-pitch count.

Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.17 ERA. That ERA drops to 3.51 when he pitches on the road.

At this late juncture of the season we know who the Yankees are: A .500 team. Actually New York is 76-75. Mediocre is a fitting description.

The Blue Jays are the more motivated team being in the playoff hunt. They've won four in a row following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox with a 7-1 victory against the Yankees last night.

I find this price low to back the superior Blue Jays with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman isn't having a great year, but he's been solid. He has a career 3.28 ERA versus the Yankees in 29 appearances, including 23 starts.

Converted reliever Michael King draws the start for New York. He's pitched well, but hasn't exceeded five innings all season. King entering the rotation thins the Yankees' bullpen.

I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one.

Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement.

I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67.

Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss.

The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS.

The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14.

Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk.

Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis.

The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals.

Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors.

The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's.

The Mets took advantage of the Diamondbacks having to pitch a bottom-of-the-end rotation guy on Tuesday. But now Arizona is coming in with its ace, Zac Gallen.

Gallen doesn't pitch as well on the road, but he's still a stud and in the NL Cy Young Award conversation with a 15-7 record and 3.31 ERA. Opponents are batting only .229 against him.

The Diamondbacks are battling hard with five other teams for a wildcard playoff spot. They have incentive. The Mets don't. They are 12 games below .500. Mets manager Buck Showalter is trying to balance his veterans with youth knowing his team is in rebuild mode.

I'd stay away from this game if the Mets were going to pitch Kodai Senga because he's tough at home. But the Mets are giving Senga extra rest. Instead they are starting journeyman Joey Lucchesi, who hasn't pitched since Aug. 19. Lucchesi has made six starts this year. Only one was a quality start. So the Mets could be turning to their bullpen early.

Taj Bradley is a huge strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. Dallas Keuchel has been washed up for several years. Somehow, though, he's made his way on to the Twins' roster.

I don't see Keuchel successfully navigating through a deep Rays lineup that has power and speed. Tampa ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and steals.

Bradley has 111 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Twins strike out more than any team in the majors.

The underdog Marlins are playing well, winners of eight of their last 10 games. They catch the Brewers at what should be a good time.

This is Milwaukee's first game back home following a six-game road trip that concluded Sunday with an unbelievable loss to the Yankees. Corbin Burnes threw a no-hitter for eight innings. All together, Milwaukee pitchers didn't allow a hit for 10 1/3 innings. Yet Milwaukee lost the game in 13 innings.

That bizarre defeat has to be on the Brewers' minds as they return home, not to mention getting acclimated to seeing their families returning from a road trip. So their concentration may not be at peak efficiency.

The Brewers do have Brandon Woodruff starting. He's 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA. Very solid. But the Marlins also have a hot pitcher, lefty Jesus Luzardo. He's given up only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 18 innings with a 1.00 ERA and 0.61 WHIP during this span. Luzardo hasn't faced weak competition either during this time frame pitching against the Dodgers, Rays and Padres.

Milwaukee has never faced Luzardo before giving him the element of surprise. The Brewers fare much worse against southpaws, too. They are 62-41 versus righty starters, but 17-22 against lefties. The Brewers average only 3.2 runs against lefties, ranking in the bottom-seven in batting average and slugging percentage against them.

Fat and happy after sweeping the Rangers in Texas, the Astros got whacked at home, 11-2, by the Padres on Friday.

I see this as a great bounce back spot for Houston. The Padres are one of the biggest underachievers in baseball. They are second only to the Royals in money lost by bettors.

This is an action play for me with a pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Seth Lugo, who has been pitching well but has faced weak-hitting opponents during his last three starts.

The Astros rank fifth in runs scored, while the unclutch Padres are 17th in runs and 23rd in batting average.

Judging by this low line, the oddsmaker still hasn't fully grasped that the Orioles have the second-best record in baseball behind only the Braves. They also have the top road record in the American League at 46-25.

Baltimore has won five in a row. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 games. The Red Sox have lost 17 more games than the Orioles.

The Orioles have the better starter going with Kyle Bradish facing Tanner Houck.

Yet the Orioles are only a small favorite. Well, I certainly don't mind laying this low of a price with the superior team especially with an edge in starting pitchers.

Bradish is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during his last five starts.

Houck is 4-8 on the season with a 5.07 ERA. His home ERA on the year is 5.40.

Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore.

The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season.

Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage.

Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors.

The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field.

Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory.

Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA.

The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals.

Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.

The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury.

The Padres have been a monster disappointment this year. But they are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Giants.

Impressed? I'm not. The Giants are a struggling team and San Diego hasn't won four in a row all season.

I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus 43-year-old southpaw Rich Hill.

Walker is 14-5 with a 4.11 ERA. He has dominated the Padres in his career with a 4-3 mark, 2.51 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in eight career starts. The Padres are hitting just .178 against him.

Hill is 7-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 26 starts.

The Phillies are averaging 5.1 runs against lefties and rank sixth in slugging percentage against them.

The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. 

Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. 

The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. 

The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. 

Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. 

The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in.

This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks.

Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory.

Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer.

Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season.

I don't get the love for Miami here. The Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are one game above .500. Tampa Bay is 80-52 and has won eight of its last 10 games.

Yet the Marlins are favored.

Is the pitching matchup so strong in Miami's favor?

No.

It's Aaron Civale and a rested Tampa Bay bullpen versus Sandy Alcantara.

This isn't last season when Alcantara captured the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.28 ERA. He's been pitching better, but he's not dominant like last year. He's 6-11 with a 4.16 ERA.

Civale is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Tampa Bay was idle on Monday.

The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent.

The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale.

Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP.

Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20.

Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA.

Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs.

Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game.

As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays.

The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees.

Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros.

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope.

Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts.

Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts.

Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division.

Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors.

San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles.

The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month.

This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs.

The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season.

Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter.

Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts.

Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs.

On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito.

Reality is different.

The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team.

Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games.

Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers.

Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days.

Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA.

The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record.

He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck.

Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be.

Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts.

The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road.

After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night.

As well as they should.

The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth.

I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position.

San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings.

That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games.

I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.

Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams.

Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3.

Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it.

Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA.

Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.

But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA.

The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers.

Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday.

Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers.

Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts.

Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.

Civale has made 10 career starts versus Detroit. His team won all 10 of those starts with Civale posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.

I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. 

Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. 

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. 

Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. 

The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. 

Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately.

The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65.

Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road.

More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form.

Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers.

But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that.

I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido.

Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't lived up to last year's NL Cy Young Award season. Not even close. However, Alcantara has started to pitch better. He's coming off a five-hit, complete game, 7-1, win against the Rays this past Wednesday. Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA in five July starts.

I like Alcantara and the Marlins to beat the Phillies, who are starting southpaw Ranger Suarez. The Marlins lead the majors by a wide margin in batting average against left-handed pitching hitting .307. The Marlins also have the second-highest on base percentage versus southpaws and rank third against them in OPS.

Suarez slipped badly in July posting a 6.11 ERA.

The Marlins are getting healthy as both Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia are back in their lineup.

The White Sox managed to halt a six-game losing streak against the Guardians last night. But I see Cleveland coming back to beat the White Sox today. The White Sox have gutted their pitching staff as they became sellers in anticipation of Tuesday's trade deadline. 

Mike Clevinger could come off the injured list to start for the White Sox for the first time since June 14. Chicago's bullpen, though, figures to get plenty of work and the White Sox no longer have Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Kelly. The White Sox bullpen is inexperienced, untested and lacks a proven closer. 

Cleveland has lost 11 fewer games than the White Sox. The Guardians have promising rookie Logan Allen on the mound. He's 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched twice against the White Sox back in May and posted a 3.09 ERA against them in 11 2/3 innings. 

I'm expecting a strong bounce back effort from prideful Logan Webb today. Webb is off perhaps the worst start of his career. He was hammered for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals this past Saturday.

Webb had a 1.59 ERA in his first three July starts before that outing.

Webb is much better at home where his ERA is 2.02.

This Boston's first road game since July 19. They lost their last away game to the lowly A's.

Bad spot for the Tigers, who just dropped a doubleheader at home and had to travel to Florida. The Marlins, by contrast, were idle Thursday.

Detroit has one of the weakest offenses in baseball ranking in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS.

The Marlins have been tough at home with 31-20 record. Braxton Garrett should have a bounce-back effort facing this Tigers lineup. Miami is 14-5 in Garrett's starts this season.

Tigers starter Reese Olson is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA.

The Marlins got a much-needed boost when they beat the Rays, 7-1, two days ago in their last game.

The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez.

I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen.

The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters.

Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors.

Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame.

Wrong team favored.

In Zac Gallen I trust, especially when he's pitching at home.

Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his home starts this season.

The Cardinals are one of the biggest underachieving teams. They are 12 games below .500. Arizona, by contrast, is eight games above .500.

Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis. He's not the same elite pitcher he was before injuries took a toll. Flaherty is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a day game. Flaherty's day time ERA is even worse at 5.66.

Rarely do the Dodgers lose back-to-back home games. You have to go back to June 18 to find the last time that happened.

Look for LA to bounce back after a 6-3 extra inning loss to Toronto last night.

The Dodgers are 29-17 at home. They have Julio Urias, last year's ERA champion, on the mound.

Urias is bouncing back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for six weeks. He was shelled by the Orioles in his last start. Prior to that, however, Urias had allowed only two earned runs in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays have never faced Urias so Urias has a surprise element in his favor.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has pitched much worse on the road this season where his ERA is 5.81.

I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263.

It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge.

The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game.

Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees.

Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA.

Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi started the season fast. But now he's reverted to his usual bottom-of-a rotation quality.

Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA this month. Kikuchi has surrendered 72 homers in the past three seasons, including 22 already this year.

The Mariners are quite familiar with Kikuchi since he pitched for them for three years before going to the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA in 70 starts for Seattle.

He was below average then and he's still below average.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are not familiar with Seattle starter Bryce Miller having never faced him. That gives Miller an edge.

Miller is one of the better rookie starters in the American League. He loves to pitch in Seattle where he's 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA.

The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings.

The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings.

The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here.

It may seem strange at first glance to see the Orioles favored against the Dodgers. But that's definitely the case in this matchup.

The Orioles have the third-highest winning percentage in baseball at .613. The Dodgers' winning percentage is .581.

Baltimore is 10 games above .500 at home and starting one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, Tyler Wells. He's backed by All-Star relievers Yannier Cano and Felix Bautista. Wells has allowed fewer than earned runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year.

The Dodgers are starting Michael Grove, who is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA, in what could shape up to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. LA ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.31.

Corbin Burnes looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self on Friday. He shut out the Reds for six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks. Burnes struck out 13 in Milwaukee's 1-0 victory.

It takes a lot to shut out the Reds in Cincinnati.

Now, though, the story is much different. The Reds, who rank seventh in runs, drop down to face Freddy Peralta.

Peralta is a disappointing 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Peralta has been at his worst on the road where he's 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Peralta is not in good form either with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts.

The Brewers hit left-handers much worse than righties and they are going against southpaw Andrew Abbott, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Abbott is at his best at home where his ERA is 1.83. Abbott has 48 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. The Brewers strike out at the fourth highest rate.

Milwaukee also is batting just .228 versus southpaws, which ranks second-to-last. The Brewers also are 28th in slugging percentage against lefties and 26th in OPS.

Even with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, the Angels shouldn't be laying nearly this high of a price against the Astros. 

Down injured Mike Trout, the Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 8-4 in their last dozen games.

Ohtani last pitched 10 days ago after he was removed because of a blister on his pitching hand. Is Ohtani fully healed? Even if he is, the Angels are terrible without Trout and Ohtani is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. 

Houston is pitching rookie J.B. France, who has been solid with a 7-4 record and 3.32 ERA. France has a 1.95 road ERA. France also is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Just what is so dominant about the Yankees? Nothing. They are just two games above .500 on the road, rank 28th in the majors in batting at .231 and aren't nearly the same team minus injured Aaron Judge.

Yet the Yankees are massive favorites at Coors Field.

The Rockies are much more competitive at home. They rank in the top-six offensively in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS when playing at home.

Yes, the pitching matchup on paper heavily favors the Yankees. But there is more than meets the eye here with Carlos Rodon facing Austin Gomber. Rodon is making only his second start of the season. He's still feeling his way. Rodon made one previous start at Coors Field in his career and he was roughed up for six runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Gomber is pitching the best he has all season going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, but they have Justin Verlander going and the Dodgers are not the powerhouse of a year ago.
 
Verlander has been dominant at home with a 2.19 ERA. He's been sharp, too, with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts. Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in three regular-season career starts versus the Dodgers.

Dodgers starter Julio Urias is having a disappointing season with a 4.76 ERA. He's not in good current form unlike Verlander with a 9.75 ERA in his last three starts. Urias has struggled on the road, too, with an 8.44 away ERA. 

Urias has a 5.02 career ERA versus the Mets in five appearances, including three starts.

This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft.

Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings.

The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft.

So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment.

There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz.

The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24.

Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA.

Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings.

The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2.

Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss.

The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances.

The buy sign is on for the Mets in an underdog spot with Justin Verlander on the hill.

The Mets have picked themselves off the floor to win their last five games. Verlander hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings. The right-hander figures to go at least six innings. The Mets are 25-4 when they have a starter go at least six innings.

San Diego is 2-7 the past nine times facing a righty starter.

Yu Darvish gets the call for San Diego. He'll be making his first start since June 21 having been sidelined by the flu. Darvish is not having a good season at 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA. That ERA soars to 7.71 in his last three starts where he's allowed 14 runs on 20 hits and seven walks in 16 1/3 innings.

In a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in baseball, I want the home underdog White Sox going for me here with Dylan Cease on the mound.

After a slow start, Cease has shown more of his ace form. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Cease has 55 strikeouts in his last 39 innings.

The White Sox are facing southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The White Sox are above average in batting average and slugging percentage against lefties. Montgomery has been pitching better, but at this price I'd rather have Cease going for me.

The Cardinals have lost 22 of the past 30 times in the opening game of a series.

Carlos Rodon is ready to make his long-awaited season debut for the Yankees. The Yankees are excited and so is Rodon. I see Rodon doing well.

The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They still could be missing Dansby Swanson, who has been out with a heel injury.

Rodon posted a 0.84 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings spanning three rehab appearances in the minors. Rodon was 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA for the Giants last season in 31 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium.

Rodon has the luxury of having a deep Yankee bullpen behind him. The Yankees are tied for having the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Best yet, the Yankees get to face Jameson Taillon, who pitched for them the previous two seasons. Taillon has been a major disappointment for the Cubs with a 6.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He's in bad form, too, with a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts.

The Cardinals and Marlins have switched the script so far this season. It's the Marlins who are 14 games above .500 while the Cardinals have matched a season-low 16 games below .500 after blowing a ninth inning lead against Miami last night.

The Marlins would be on an eight-game win streak if you discount their games against the Braves. St. Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games.

Now the Cardinals get to face Eury Perez for the first time. Perez had pitched 21 scoreless innings and had an ERA of 1.34 before running into the Braves this past Saturday. Atlanta clobbered him. No shame, though, in that. The Braves are the most powerful team in baseball ranking first in homers and OPS and second in runs and batting average.

The Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, a one-time ace reduced to mediocrity with a 4.60 ERA having been dealt low by shoulder issues. The Cardinals have a bullpen that can not be counted on.

Domingo German is coming off a perfect game and pitching at home. Yet it's the Orioles who opened as a slight road favorite.

Surprised?

I'm not. I'm on the Orioles.

It's not just a case of fading German off his perfect game, which came against the A's this past Wednesday in Oakland. The Orioles have lost five fewer games than the Yankees this season. New York is 11-13 since losing reigning AL MLVP Aaron Judge to a toe injury.

I also believe Orioles starter Tyler Wells is better than German. Wells is way below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer during his last six starts. Wells has recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine games and has a 0.88 WHIP.

German, despite his perfect game, is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. The spot isn't good for the Yankees returning home after six straight road games while playing their fourth game in three days having had to play a doubleheader against the Cardinals this past Saturday.

Justin Verlander just may have provided the much needed spark for an underachieving Mets team with his Saturday pitching game against the Giants.

The Giants haven't been setting the baseball world on fire either lately losing five of their last nine games.

I like the spot for the Mets here with David Peterson going against San Francisco's Ross Stripling.

Neither pitcher has good season numbers. Peterson, however, is off pitching six scoreless innings against the Brewers this past Tuesday. He has a rested bullpen behind him. The Giants are averaging just 2.1 runs in their last six games.

Stripling has made 10 pitching appearances for the Giants. They are 2-8 in those games. Stripling missed six weeks with a back injury. This is his first start since May 17. He might not be around for long.

The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10.

Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees.

Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA.

Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts.

The Brewers are running short on quality relief pitchers. They also are going against crafty, veteran lefty Rich Hill.

Yes, Hill is way over the hill. But the Brewers can't hit lefties. Milwaukee is 10-15 versus southpaws. The Brewers are last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against lefty pitching.

Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has an ERA worse than Hill's at 4.57. Rea's daytime ERA is 5.20.

The Pirates have been swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games.

The Braves have the best record in the National League. They just whipped the Marlins, 16-4, at home on Friday.

But too little respect is being given to the Marlins for today's game with a pitching matchup of Eury Perez versus Charlie Morton.

The Marlins have the third-best record in the National League. They would be the leader in two of baseball's six divisions.

Prior to Friday's loss, the Marlins had won seven consecutive road games.

Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA in day games, which this matchup is. Perez hasn't been scored upon during his last three starts spanning 21 innings.

Atlanta leads the majors in homers, Perez, however, has only surrendered two homers in his last eight starts.

The 39-year-old Morton has a 4.74 home ERA.

Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners.

Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS.

The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts.

Adam Wainwright is planning to retire following this season. He's been a great pitcher. I just wish he would have retired before this year because he's embarrassing his legacy.

The 41-year-old Wainwright has just one quality start in his last nine outings. His home ERA is 7.03. His ERA during his last three starts is 7.80.

The Astros are the better team. They get the check marks, too, when it comes to starting pitchers with J.P. France opposing Wainwright and in the bullpen.

The rookie France has been reliable. He has a 3.08 ERA in four starts this month.

The Astros' lineup received a needed jolt with the return of Jose Altuve. Meanwhile the Cardinals could be minus Nolan Arenado, who left Wednesday's game because of back tightness.

Miami is playing well. But I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park in a pitching matchup of lefty Jesus Luzardo versus Brayan Bello.

The Red Sox rank fourth in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.

Bello is emerging as one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has a 2.45 ERA during his last 10 starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his past three starts.

The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday.

The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts.

New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts.

So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here.

Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span.

The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th.

New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games.

German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts.

The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The good news about that is you can now buy low on Houston.

The 42-37 Astros should not be an underdog to the 33-45 Cardinals in a pitching matchup of Christian Javier against Miles Mikolas.

Javier is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Cardinals have never faced him. 

Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his past three starts. Mikolas has a 10.80 career ERA versus Houston in two starts.
The Cardinals beat the Astros on Tuesday, but still might not have their sea legs after having played a weekend series against the Cubs in London.

It' an added bonus for Houston if Jose Altuve returns to the lineup. 

The Phillies are a hot road team and they have a hot pitcher going. Both teams were idle on Monday. The Cubs, though, flew in from London where they played the Cardinals during the weekend. So jet lag could work against them.

All of this puts me on the Phillies as an action play since as of early Tuesday morning the Cubs had not formally announced their starting pitcher. Jameson Taillon is the projected starter, which would be another plus for Philadelphia. Taillon has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.71 ERA.

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine road games, averaging 6.6 runs and posting an .843 OPS during this span. They are looking for their seventh consecutive away victory.

After a slow start recovering from an elbow strain, Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has been brilliant in his last five starts with a 1.38 ERA.