It's the Angels who are chasing playoff hopes. But it's the White Sox who are playing better winning nine of their last 15 games. The Angels just ended a six-game losing streak by beating the Astros. That victory came in the Sunday night game in Houston. So the Angels are traveling after playing at night, a bad situational spot.  The White Sox are playing loose but playing hard. They have youngsters in their lineup, but these youthful players are highly talented. Chicago just took two of three from the Royals, who also held playoff aspirations.  The Angels are in must-win mode, which can lead to tightness.  The pitching matchup is Ricky Nolasco versus James Shields. That's bad versus bad so why not take a plus price in a battle of journeymen?  Nolasco hasn't won in his last six starts. He is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the White Sox.  Shields was one of the worst pitchers in baseball earlier in the season. But he's made some adjustments that have brought his ERA down. He does have a solid history versus the Angels with a 6-4 lifetime mark and 3.13 ERA in 14 startts. 

Even though the Nationals have nothing to play for, I still like them in an underdog role against the Phillies.  Washington has won seven of its last nine road games. The Nationals have had great success in Philadelphia winning 17 of the past 22 times there. The Nationals have excellent depth. The Phillies have been playing a lot of youth. So I'm fine if the Nationals choose to sit out a couple of regulars.  There's a strong possibility Bryce Harper returns to Washington's lineup today. Harper was batting .326 with 29 homers and 87 RBI's when he was injured on Aug. 12. He hasn't played since. There will be a buzz, if not outright spark for Washington, if Harper does play.  Nationals starter A.J. Cole has been pitching better with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander beat the Phillies at Citizens Band Park back in May holding the Phillies to one run in six innings. The Phillies have lost 69 percent of their last 96 games against righy starters.   Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. He's had more difficulty against the Nationals than any other team with a 1-3 career record and 4.69 ERA. 

If these were normal circumstanes, I would never lay anywhere close to this price in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Noah Syndergaard.  But they are not. Syndergaard is making his first appearance since April 30. He's only going to pitch one inning. Then Matt Harvey will take over. Harvey is trying to overcome his own injury woes. Since returning from the DL, Harvey has a 13.19 ERA in four starts. The Mets are letting Harvey pitch through his trouble. This sets up the Nationals offense, which ranks No. 3 in runs and batting average.  Strasburg has been dominant giving up only three runs in his last six starts spanning 41 innings. He has a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus the Mets this season.  The Nationals are 21-5 in Strasburg's last 26 road starts. Washington should have incentive, too, after blowing a five-run lead in a 7-6 loss Friday in the series opener. 

The Royals are in must-win mode trailing the Twins by 4 1/2 games for the final wild-card slot in the AL.  Kansas City catches a nice break here drawing White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey. There may not be a worst starting pitcher in the majors than Covey. Bad starters usually get yanked out of the rotation very soon. Not Covey. He's part of the White Sox rebuild, youth movement. So he keeps taking his turn in the rotation and the White Sox keep losing whenever he pitches. Covey has yet to win in 10 big league starts and 17 appearances. His ERA on the season is 8.18. Covery has surrendered 18 homers and 31 walks in 58 1/3 innings. Covey is 0-2 versus the Royals with a 6.61 ERA.  Danny Duffy gets the call for the Royals. Duffy was pitching well until going on the DL with a knee injury. He returned this past Sunday and held the red-hot Indians to one earned run on one hit with eight strikeouts in five innings. Duffy was limited to 65 pitches in that start. He'll go longer here. 

I see Tyler Anderson getting the job done for the Rockies against the weak hitting Padres. Anderson was dominant against San Diego this past Saturday giving up only two hits and two walks in six innings during a 16-0 romp. Since returning from the DL 11 days ago, Anderson is 2-0 and hasn't allowed a run in 10 innings. He carries a 0.73 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, too, in two starts.  The Padres are going with Clayton Richard, who has a 9.98 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. Lifetime, Richard has a 5.60 ERA against the Rockies in 18 appearances, including 17 starts.  The Rockies are the much stronger team and have playoff motivation. Given their pitching edge here, this is a short price to lay. 

He's far from a household name, but Luke Weaver may be the hottest pitcher in baseball. The Cardinals right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.15 ERA during his last five starts. The Cardinals have won these five games by a combined margin of 22 runs.  The Cardinals are in must-win mode trailing Colorado by 3 1/2 games for the second NL wild-card spot.  The Cardinals have gotten healthy, too, with power-hitting middle infielder Jedd Gyorko back on the field. Matt Carpenter should be in the lineup, too, after getting a day off on Tuesday.  The Reds are in rebuild mode pitching different rookies nearly every game. Today the Reds are going with one of their lesser arms, Rookie Davis. And, yes, Rookie is  rookie. He's 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in five big league starts. 

This low price gets me involved with the Pirates here in a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Robert Stephenson. Cole isn't back to the ace status of two years ago, but he's been very solid. Cole has been especially strong on the road where his ERA is 2.90 during his past nine away starts. This includes a 1-0 win against the Reds on Aug. 26.  Cole won't have to deal with the most feared basestealer in baseball as Billy Hamilton is on the DL with a broken thumb. The Reds seem to be pitching rookies every day. Today they are going with Robert Stephenson, who has a 5.45 ERA and remains a work-in-progress with control problems. 

Cole Hamels has a strong history against the Angels with a 4-1 record and 2.87 ERA in nine career starts. He's 2-0 with a 2.36 ERA this season against them this season. Hamels is superior to Parker Bridwell, who has fallen back to Earth where he belongs. Birdwell last won on Aug. 13. He has an 11.25 ERA in his past three starts. 

I know the Pirates have been fade material this month, but I see this as a nice bounceback spot for them and Ivan Nova against Reds rookie Sal Romano. Nova has had a tough second half, but is a quality pitcher. The Pirates still have a number of quality hitters in their lineup, especially with Greogory Polanco back healthy.  Romano has a higher ERA than Nova and has suffered two losses to the Pirates already this season. He's allowed six runs in 11 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh.  

It's a testament on how washed-up Bartolo Colon is that he's being celebrated as coming through for the Twins when his ERA is 4.69 in 11 outings since joining Minnesota.  The 44-year-old Colon could be hitting the wall as the long season winds down. He couldn't get out of the second inning in his last start this past Sunday at Kansas City giving up six runs on six hits.  Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, on the other hand, is in excellent form going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA during his past three starts.  The Twins are only one game above .500 when playing at home.  Toronto has been very disappointing this season. But the Happ versus Colon mismatch is worth the small lay price on the visiting Blue Jays. 

The Phillies are supposed to be bad. But don't tell that to Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams. Sparked by these three youngsster - all of whom are batting .300 or above - the Phillies have won eight of their last 14 games. They are averaging 7.3 runs during their last six games.  The good times should roll on for at least another game as the Phillies match up against Daniel Mengden and an A's team that has the worst road mark in the majors at 22-49. Mengden will be making his fourth big league start. He has a 7.07 ERA.  Philadelphia starter Mark Leiter Jr. pitches much better at home where his ERA is 1.87.   

Even though they lost to Seattle Tuesday night, the Rangers have dominated the Mariners in Arlington winning eight of the past 10. Look for the Rangers to get back on track today in a pitching matchup of Mike Leake versus Martin Perez. Leake had hit a wall in St. Louis. Leake has temporarily found new life in Seattle winning both of his starts for the Mariners. I don't see things going smooth for him in this his third start as AL opponents are now up on him.  The Rangers have scored four or more runs in nine of their last 11 games and Arlington is a tough place to pitch at especially this time of year.  Perez doesn't get much respect. All he does, though, is win going 7-0 in his past seven outings. Only once during this span has Perez given up more than three runs.  

On paper, this is a marquee pitching matchup: Justin Verlander versus Garrett Richards.  Verlander can still bring it. He's 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA since the All-Star break. Only twice in his last 11 starts as he permitted more than two earned runs. Verlander was brilliant in his Astros debut last Tuesday against the Mariners. He'll be highly motivated here for new team. The Astros should be fully focused, too, after an embarrassing four-game sweep by the As.     Richards is pitching for just the third time, including minors, since being out five months with a biceps strain. He's going to be on a pitch count of around 65-70 pitches. So the Astros, the No. 1 offensive team in baseball, get Richards trying to find his way back and a vulnerable Angels bullpen.  Houston has had good success playing the Angels on the road winning 10 of the last 14.

The Twins have lost the past four times they've pitched Jose Berrios against the Royals. I expect that streak to continue here especially with this game in Kanas City. Berriors has a very high ceiling. He's pitched well at home going 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA. But he's been another pitcher on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.43 ERA. Minnesota is 0-8 during Berriors last eight road starts.  Berrios has an 8.20 career ERA versus Kansas City in four outings.  The Twins aren't likely to have their closer, Matt Belisle, either. He has pitched the past three days.  Royals starter Jake Junis isn't as highly regarded as Berrios. Junis, though, quietly has done a good job. He is 7-2, tied for the lead among American League rookies for victories. Junis is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. He's posted an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

This is a stop-the-pain game for the Marlins and a favorable matchup for them. 

 Miami has dropped four in a row. But the Marlins have the superior starter going in Dan Straily against Sean Newcomb and ripe circumstances. The Braves aren't playing that well either. They are 16 games under .500 and in full rebuild mode with three-fourths of their infield manned by rookies. Atlanta just played a wild doubleheader on Wednesday splitting against the Rangers with a combined 29 runs being scored. It's left the Braves bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.   Newcomb doesn't go deep into games and walks too many batters averaging six bases on balls per nine innings. Newcomb hasn't been able to record an out past the fifth inning during his last three starts. Atlanta is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Home run leader Gincarlo Stanton loves Atlanta's Sun Trust Park having homered three times there in six games.  Straily should do his part. He's 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this season.  

Gio Gonzalez is having a huge season and he dominates the Marlins. Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts versus the Marlins this season. The last time he pitched against the Marlins was Aug. 9 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts.  Gonzalez, who is from Miami, is 9-3 career-wise versus the Marlins with a 1.94 ERA in 15 starts.  Dillon Peterts is set to make his second big league start for the Marlins. Peters was brilliant in his debut throwing seven scoreless innings against the Phillies this past Friday. Opponents now know about Peters, though, and the Nationals have a much more potent lineup especially with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth back from injury.  The Marlins are at low ebb having lost eight of their past nine games to fall out of realistic playoff contention. Concentration could be a problem, too, for the Marlins as they are leaving town following this game. There is much concern about the expected effects of Hurricane Irma. The hurricane is due to strike the Miami area by Sunday morning. So it's understandable if the Marlins aren't completely focused.  

Texas has been strong during interleague going 12-5. The Rangers should be focused trailing by three games for the second AL wild-card spot.  The Braves are going with a lot of youth with three-fourths of their infield being rookies. The only non-rookie in the infield is Freddie Freeman their best player. Freeman is having his wrist examined today so there's a chance he might not be in the lineup.  That would be a huge plus for Rangers starter Andrew Cashner, who has been pitching his most consistent ball of his career. Cashner has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. He went 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA during July/August.  The Braves are pitching 42-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. There's always a wild card factor when a knuckleballer takes the mound. But the Rangers have incentive, are going with a hot pitcher and the youthful Braves may not have their full concentration since this is their first game back from a seven-game road trip. 
 

The Rays rank eighth in the majors in homers. They have hit at least one homer in 14 straight games. The Twins can't match that power.  The pitching matchup favors the Rays, too, with Jose Berrios versus Alex Cobb. Berrios has a very high ceiling. But he has not been good on the road going 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA.  Cobb is underrated. He should have more wins that he does. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last three starts, none of which resulted in a win for him. Cobb also is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts. 

The Brewers regained some needed confidence going 6-2 in their last eight games, including posting a combined five victories against the powerful Dodgers and Nationals. 

 Milwaukee is going with maybe its best pitcher, Chase Anderson. He's been solid in his three starts since returning from the DL. The Brewers have a rested Corey Knebel giving them a strong bullpen edge, too. Anderson is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts versus the Reds.  Reds starter Homer Bailey was once a promising pitcher. Injuries have messed him up. He really shouldn't be in a starting rotation with just five quality outings in 13 starts. Bailey is at his worst pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and during the day. That's the situation for him today. Bailey is 0-5 with a 9.95 ERA at home this season. In day action this season, he's 1-4 with a 13.29 ERA. 

It's no wonder the Rangers have won all five of Martin Perez's last five starts. The southpaw has held four of his past five opponents to two earned runs or less. The Angels have lost the past four times going against a lefty starter.  Perez goes for the Rangers here against Angels lefty Andrew Heaney, who is on the comeback trail after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. This marks Heaney's fourth start of the season. He has been up and down, which often is the case for those pitchers in their first year back from serious elbow surgery.  The Rangers just saw Heaney on Aug. 23. They smacked three homers off him in five innings in a 7-5 victory. Texas is 18-14 versus southpaw starters this season.  Texas is short-handed in the bullpen with setup men Matt Bush and Keone Kela on the DL. But closer Alex Claudio didn't pitch Saturday and the Angels also have an unsettled bullpen without a definitive closer right now.  

I like Jon Gray going for me with the Rockies at home and in circle-the-wagons mode. The Rockies have the more rested key relievers and Gray has started to pitch like a No. 1 pitcher, which the Rockies have always envisioned. Gray has a 2.58 ERA in his last six starts.  Lefty Patrick Corbin always has been pitching very well lately. But the Rockies are 21-15 versus southpaws and own a good history against Corbin, who has a 5.23 career ERA against Colorado in 15 appearances, including 14 starts. Corbin has a 6.97 ERA in two starts against Colorado earlier this season. 

The Angels are going for a three-game sweep of the A's at home today. I don't see them getting it.  The A's have proven resilient going 10-4 the past 14 times when playing Game 3 of a series. Before their two losses to open this series, the A's had gone 4-1.  Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is hitting his stride after being out more than two months. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts spanning 20 innings. Graveman has a 3.19 career ERA against the Angels in nine starts.  Mike Trout has missed the last two games due to a stiff neck and is questionable. Trout has failed to get a hit in his last 17 at bats.  Angels starter rookie Parker Bridwell has pitched better than anyone expected with a 2.89 ERA in nine starts. Bridwell is due for some regression and hasn't pitched as well at home where his ERA is 3.56. 

After facing southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who has been hot, and Chris Sale, the premier lefty in the American League, the Blue Jays now get righty Rick Porcello. That's a big dropoff. Porcello has yielded a career-worst 31 homers already this season and is coming off a Friday start against the Orioles where he gave up 11 runs on nine hits in fewer than five innings, although it should be noted seven of those runs were unearned. Porcello has a 4.70 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in 18 outings, including 17 starts. The Blue Jays have hit the 13th most homers in the majors.  Boston is a highly-impressive 60-42 against righties. The Red Sox, however, are only 15-15 versus lefty starters. They were under .500 against southpaws until beating Toronto and Brett Anderson, 3-0, last night. The much traveled and injured Anderson, though, pitched well against the Red Sox holding them to one run on six hits with no walks in 5 2/3 innings.  Southpaw J.A. Happ is better than Anderson and he goes against the Red Sox today. Happ went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last year. Happ isn't having that kind of season this year, but he's been solid holding eight of his last 12 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He has a 3.66 career ERA in 13 starts against Boston.  The Red Sox remain without two key players, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. 

Getting out of Boston is the tonic for the Red Sox, who were just swept at home by the Orioles. Now the Red Sox head to Toronto. They are 7-3 against the Blue Jays this season, including 5-1 at Rogers Centre.  The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. They'll find themselves. The Blue Jays won't. Toronto is eight games below .500 and are 2-7 in its last nine games.  The Blue Jays are 11-19 versus left-handed starters this year and facing hot southpaw Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has won his last seven decisions. He has a 1.59 ERA during his past five starts. Pomeranz always had talent he was just held back by injuries. Now he's dealing and has a strong history against the Blue Jays going 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA. He's 2-0 versus Toronto this season with a 0.71 ERA.  Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. But he's not in the form Pomeranz is and has a worse bullpen behind him. Stroman was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs on eight hits - including three homers - in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays this past Wednesday.  Stroman has a 4.47 career ERA in nine starts against Boston. He's 0-1 versus the Red Sox with a 4.76 ERA in two starts this year. 

The Astros have a lot going for them in this bounce back spot after blowing Saturday's game to the Angels, 7-6.  Jose Altuve may be the best player in the American League and he's back in the lineup. So is catcher Brian McCann, who has nine homers in 73 career at bats against Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, a career journeyman, opposes Charie Morton, who is having perhaps his finest season. The right-handed Nolasco's ERA is above 5.00. The Astros average just a shade under six runs per game versus righty starters. The Angels have lost seven of the past 10 times Nolasco has pitched at home.  Houston has won 67 percent of its last 61 road contests. Morton is 2-0 lifetime versus the Angels with a 3.24 ERA in three starts.  If Altuve isn't the best player in the American League than Mike Trout is Trout, however, is hitless in his last four games. 

The Giants are not a team to back on the road - except in a case like this with Madison Bumgarner opening as a 'dog against a cold pitcher.  Pride is at stake for Bumgarner, who has a winning record and 2.81 ERA in eight starts since returning from the DL. Bumgarner has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Bumgarner also has a lifetime winning mark versus the Diamondbacks with a 2.58 ERA in 28 appearances, including 27 starts.  Bumgarner certainly can be counted on to give San Francisco a quality performance here. The same can't be said for Arizona starter Taijuan Walker. The Diamondbacks have lost seven of the last eight times Walker has pitched. Walker is winless during his past 10 starts and has a 4.76 ERA in three starts against the Giants this year. 

The Astros aren't playing well losing 16 of their last 25. They aren't likely to have AL batting leader Jose Altuve either.  But I like them, especially at this price, to take care of business against the Angels.  Houston is 8-0 the past eight times Collin McHugh has started against the Angels. He gets the call here looking better and better since returning from an elbow injury that had sidelined him for much of the season. McHugh blanked the A's in his last start this past Saturday going six innings.  McHugh has a 2.55 lifetime ERA versus the Angels. That ERA shrinks even more to 2.25 when he's pitched at Angel Stadium.  Mike Trout is the key to the Angels and he's in a 3-for-23 slump.  Parker Bridwell has been a major surprise for the Angels. The Angels are unbeaten in his last eight starts. I don't see that continuing. McHugh is the better pitcher and the Astros are the superior team even without Altuve. 

The Diamondbacks are the far superior team and have a strong pitching edge, too, in this matchup. All-Star Robbie Rays returns from a concussion. The Diamondbacks have been extra careful with him. Now he's ready. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He also has a 0.53 lifetime ERA in 17 innings versus the Mets.  New York, losers of eight of its last 10, are starting Rafael Montero. He's only in the Mets' starting rotation due to a cluster injury problem that has sidelined all of the Mets' projected starters except Jacob deGrom. Montero is 1-7 at home with a 5.89 ERA.  Arizona has a top-10 offense, while the Mets have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 10 games having traded many of their front line players in an effort to rebuild. 

Unless Jacob deGrom is pitching, the Mets are clear fade material. The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 games putting them at a season-worst 16 games below .500. New York has dropped eight of its past nine games. The Mets also can't beat Arizona having lost 10 of their last 11 to the Diamondbacks.  The Mets only have a few of their projected starters. They just lost All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto to a thumb injury. This leaves the Mets with an extremely weak lineup. The Diamondbacks have a top-10 offense, are in a playoff race and have the superior pitching matchup with Zack Godley opposing rookie Chris Flexen.  Godley has pitched much better than his 5-6 record. He holds a 3.13 ERA and averages more than nine strikeouts per nine innings. Godley has a 1.80 career ERA in 15 innings against the Mets.  Flexen has been pushed to the big league level due to the many Mets pitching injuries, which include all of their starters except deGrom. Flexen, who went directly to the majors from Class AA skipping Triple A, has a 6.55 ERA and control problems having given up four or more walks in three of his last five starts.He has issued more bases on balls than he has strikeouts. 

Do you recall journeyman Tommy Milone? Here's a refresher. He began the year with the Brewers before being cut. The Mets picked him up and actually gave him three early-season starts. Milone went 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA during those outings before suffering a knee injury.  Now Milone has resurfaced due to yet another Mets starting pitcher injury with Steven Matz done for the year. The Mets are now down five starting pitchers. Hence, Milone being back in the bigs - at least for now. Milone has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Not surprisingly they didn't go well. He's 0-1 lifetime against them with a 7.59 ERA.  The Mets are at low ebb. They have waved the white flag dealing a number of their veterans. New York has dropped seven of its last eight games and have lost 25 of the past 38 times when facing an above .500 foe. The Mets also have lost nine of their last 10 to the Diamondbacks.  Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is pitching his best ball. He held the Cubs and Astros - two far better offensive teams than the Mets - scoreless during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Corbin has a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those last two games.  Since All-Star break, Corbin has gone 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. 

This is big game for the Rangers, who trail the Twins and Angels by 2 1/2 games for the last wild card spot. Cole Hamels is a big-game pitcher and has a strong history versus the Angels. He also has been very good since July.  Hamels is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA from July on. He is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven lfetime games against the Angels, including posting a 0.61 ERA in two starts this season.  Tyler Skaggs has pitched decently since coming off the DL following being out for three months with a strained obligue. Skaggs doesn't have Hamels' big game experience, though, and has a 5.46 career mark against the Rangers in six starts, including two this season.  The Rangers will be without slugger Joey Gallo and Carlos Gomez. These are two streaky players, though, who don't hit for a high average. The Rangers are averaging 7.4 runs during their last 10 games.  Texas has less of a distance to travel for this game than the Angels, who are returning home from the East Coast. The Angels haven't been home since Aug. 9. So the spot isn't good for them mentally returning to Anaheim for the first time in such a long while. 

Even without Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy, if he's resting another game, Washington still is vastly superior to San Diego.  The Nationals have won 13 of their last 19 road games and own a huge pitching matchup here with Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Dinelson Lamet.  Gonzalez is pitching his best ball with a 3-0 mark and 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. The lefty has gone at least six innings during 13 of his past 14 starts.  San Diego is 13-19 versus lefty starters and has lost 20 more games than the Nationals.  Lamet has intiguing stuff. But he's very raw and inconsistent. His ERA at Petco Park is 3.75, which isn't impressive considering Petco is the premier pitching park in the majors. 

Zack Greinke remans an elite pitcher. Jose Berrios has a high ceiling, but has been struggling after a bright beginning following being called up from the minors. Berrios has a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts. Greinke is 3-0 with a 0.65 ERA in four interleague starts this year. Greinke knows the AL well. Berriors does not know the NL and the Diamondbacks have a very strong hittling lineup made stronger if J.D. Martinez is able to play after sitting out yesterday due to illness.  Arizona is 11-4 in its last 15 interleague games. 

I'm going to fade Trevor Bauer as a road favorite. Bauer doesn't have a good road mark this season - 4-5 with a 6.32 ERA - and is in the unusual spot of pitching for the third time in less than a week having pitched in relief just two days ago.  The Indians are playing well. The Royals, though, had won four of their last five before getting trounced by the Indians last night. That was going against Corey Kluber, though.  Jason Vargas had a great June and a bad July. He was back on his game during his last start this past Sunday holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in six innings. Vargas isn't as good as he was early in the year. But he's not as bad as he looked last month.  Vargas has pitched his best this season versus Cleveland going 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. He is pitching on five days rest. Kansas City is 10-2 the past 12 times Vargas has gone on five days rest. 

Injuries not talent has been what has held Drew Pomeranz back. Pomeranz has been healthy the past two months and it has shown in his stats. He's given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his past 11 starts. It's not a fluke either. The talent is there backed by strong peripherals. Pomeranz has averaged more than one strikeout per inning.  Boston is 7-2 in Pomeranz's last nine starts. Jordan Montgomery can't match that. New York is 1-6 the past seven times Montgomery has faced an above .500 team.  The Yankees beat up on the battered Mets, but are stepping way up in class here. Boston has won eight of its last nine home games. The Red Sox also have won the last four times Pomeranz faced the Yankees. 

The Braves nipped the Rockies, 4-3, Tuesday night. Before that game, Atlanta had lost 11 in a row at Coors Field.

 Look for the Braves to begin a new losing streak at Coors starting with today's game.  The Braves have been looking more like the rebuilding team that they are. They're playing young players and still missing injured Matt Kemp. This is reflected in 16 losses in the Braves' past 22 games.  The Rockies have their best pitcher, Jon Gray, going and closer Greg Holland is rested. Gray has shown he can pitch well at Coors Field going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts this season. He was 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Braves last season. Mike Foltynewicz is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter who is showing signs of hitting the wall. He has an 8.31 ERA during his last three starts of which only one lasted more than four innings. Foltynewicz has a 4.88 road ERA.  Foltynewicz has to deal with a Rockies lineup that is far more dangerous than Atlanta's offense. Only two teams rank higher than Colorado in runs and batting average. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. They've been particularly bad on the road going 20-41. So normally they are a team to avoid especially in away circumstances such as this. But the team still has some prideful veterans and they will play hard here for Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner doesn't have the wins to show for it, but he's pitching like the four-time All-Star that he is. Since coming off the DL during the middle of last month, Bumgarner has posted a 2.52 ERA. He has a 1.29 ERA during his past three starts.  Dan Straily posted a 3.31 ERA in the first half of the season. Straily has hit a wall, though, going 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA during the second half of the year. The Marlins have lost each of the last six times Straily has pitched. 

The Yankees aren't that good where they can lay a price like this against Jacob deGrom.  Both teams take a lot of pride in this Subway Series and the Mets have their best pitcher going here. deGrom can take his place among any to be nominated as the hottest pitcher in baseball. He is 9-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 85 strikeouts during his last 79 1/3 innings.  The Yankees beat the Mets, 4-2, last night. The Yankees have lost five of the past six times following a win. They are averaging just 3.2 runs in their last five games.  I'm not sold that Sonny Gray is an elite pitcher. I wouldn't put him in deGrom's class. Gray has to prove he can pitch effectively away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. His road ERA this season is 3.75. This is a home game for him, but he hasn't pitched at Yankee Stadium all year. Gray is going to have to deal with streaky Yoenis Cespedes, who is hot with four homers in his last six games, including three in the last three games.

I see the Astros breaking out of their slump here. Houston is 7-1 in Brad Peacock's last eight starts. That's not a fluke stat. Peacock has tremendous stuff.  The Diamondbacks are without their most underrated player, David Perralta. He's on paternity leave. There's a monster drop from Peralta to Gregor Blanco.  The Astros still are the No. 1 offensive team in baseball. They should be able to rough up Anthony Banda, making only his fourth big league start.  Banda has a 4.60 ERA and opposing teams now have three previous starts to gather information from. Banda would not be in the rotation if it weren't for Robbie Ray being on the DL. 

The Angels are going for a four-game road sweep of the Mariners. The oddsmaker doesn't see the Angels getting it making Seattle favored. I don't either. I like the Mariners in this circle-the-wagons game for them.  Angels starter Parker Bridwell has been a revelation. The Angels are 10-1 in his 11 starts. Bridwell isn't this good. The Mariners know that first hand. They dealt the Angels their lone loss when Bridwell started winning, 10-0, in Anaheim on June 30. The Mariners scored five earned runs off him on 11 hits in six innings.  The Angels' bullpen has outpitched the Mariners' relievers in this series. I don't see that continuing either. The Angels are unsettled at closer with Bud Norris being demoted.  Ariel Miranda gets the start for Seattle. He was the pitcher who beat Bridwell in that June 30 games. Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing only two hits and two walks. He also defeated the Angels, 11-3, back in May. Miranda's career mark versus the Angels is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA. I have a lot of confidence in him against this opponent. 

Jon Lester has a 4.25 road ERA and is vulnerable to strong base stealing teams such as the Diamondbacks. Nobody knows this better than Arizona manager Tony Lovullo, who was a bench coach and running game coordinator for the Red Sox and worked closely with Lester when the two were in Boston together.  The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the majors with 77 stolen bases. The southpaw Lester gave up the most stolen bases in 2015 with a staggering 44 and is tied for fourth in allowing the most steals this season. Lester has a 4.94 lifetime ERA in five starts against Arizona.  Making matters worse for Lester and the Cubs is their catcher, Wilson Contreras, is out with a right hamstring strain. Not only was Contreras having a big year with the bat - 21 homers and 70 RBIs - but he had thrown out 20 base stealers. The Cubs' catching options now are Alex Avila, who caught yesterday, and rookie Victor Caratini. Avila has played only five games with the Cubs. Neither has experience with Lester.  Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. Corbin didn't allow more than two earned runs during four consecutive starts from July 9-26. He's been hurt by shoddy defense in his last two starts with four unearned runs. Corbin has pitched much better at Chase Field with a 6-3 mark and 3.14 ERA this season.  The roof is going to be closed for this game, which hurts the power for both teams. It's a break, though, for the Diamondbacks because they have by far the better running game. The Cubs rank 25th in steals.  The Diamondbacks have been highly successful against lefty starters at home winning 12 of the past 15 times. 

The Rockies are a better team than the Marlins, who are in rebuild mode. The price is low enough to get involved with Colorado especially with a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Jose Urena.  Gray is the Rockies' best pitcher - and now he is pitching like it with a 2.84 ERA and an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Colorado is 7-3 in Gray's last 10 starts.  Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are the Marlins' best players and Ozuna is in a slump with just four hits during his past 27 at bats.  The Marlins are 5-14 during Urena's last 19 home starts. Urena also has been pitching well lately, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in Gray's class.  The spot sets up well, too, for Colorado. The Rockies were idle Thursday while the Marlins were playing for the 20th time in 21 days. The Rockies are 17-6 the past 23 times they've played following an off day. 

The Brewers were huge overachievers during the first half of the season. They are tumbling back to Earth now, losers of 15 of their last 22. The Twins, meanwhile, are hanging in just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. They have won three in a row and have back All-Star power hitter Miguel Sano.  So why then are the Brewers such huge favorites here? Two words - Bartolo Colon.  The 44-year-old Colon is more craft than substance. He has a 5.18 ERA in four starts with Minnesota. That's a lot better, though, than the 8.14 ERA he recorded in 13 starts with the Braves before coming to the Twins.  Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is at the opposite spectrum. He's just beginning his career. This will be his second big league start. He blanked Tampa Bay in 6 1/3 innings six days ago.  I like Woodruff's potential. But he's going to go through growing pains. He was 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 Triple A starts before coming up. The combination of Woodruff's wonderful debut and Colon's presence has created a line that is too high. So I'll make a value play and go with the 'dog at a nice mid-sized price.

Better starting pitcher. Better spot. A key injury. Those are the main factors why I like St. Louis to beat Kansas City today. The Royals will be without catcher Salvador Perez, who is on the DL after suffering a right intercostal strain this past Friday.  The Royals had to play a doubleheader Sunday. Their bullpen is fatigued.  The Cardinals have the stronger pitching matchup here with Carlos Martinez facing Ian Kennedy.  Martinez has pitched better than his 7-9 record shows. He's a "B" pitcher in my ratings. Kennedy doesn't rate that high especially at Kauffman Stadium where he carries a 13-game home winless streak. That includes an 0-4 mark this year with a 4.98 ERA.  Kennedy doesn't have a good track record versus the Cardinals either going 3-5 with a 7.20 ERA in eight previous starts.
   

I find value at this high of a price in fading Trevor Williams, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.  Detroit is 6-3 in its last nine games. Pittsburgh is 5-9 in its past 14 games. The Pirates have lost in seven of Williams' last nine starts.  I've always liked Zimmermann, who can be extremely effective when healthy. Zimmermann is healthy again and pitching well with three quality starts in his last four outings. He held the Yankees scoreless in seven innings during his past start last Wednesday. Zimmeran gave up six hits, no walks and struck out six. "Other than the one start ... I've been pretty good," Zimmermann was quoted as saying about his past appearances. "I feel strong, and the ball is coming out of my hand much better than it did in the first half of the season." 

Lance Lynn is very underrated. He ranks in the top six in the National League in both ERA and batting average against holding opponents to a .210 average. Lynn has a good history versus the Reds, too, with a 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances, including 16 starts. Lynn had a 1.47 ERA in six July starts.  He is more trustworthy than Reds rookie starter Luis Castillo. I like the potential of Castillo. But he's coming up on his career high in innings and has yet to win at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA.  Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 home games.  It's a big plus if the Cardinals get back catcher Yadier Molina as expected. He pinch-hit Friday after getting banged-up on Thursday. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. But I do believe the Giants will be fired up here to earn a split of their four-game series against cross-town rival Oakland.  I do not like to lay a price with San Francisco, but my urge to fade to Kendall Graveman and the A's on the road outweighs that concern.  Oakland has the second-worst road mark in the majors at 17-35. Graveman hasn't pitched in the majors since May 19 because of a strained shoulder. His minor league rehab numbers weren't encouraging at 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and opponents batting .383 against him.  The Giants have seen Graveman twice, the last time coming on June 28 of last season. Graveman has an 11.37 ERA versus San Francisco.  The A's have never faced Ty Blach, who pitched very well in his last outing giving up two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers on the road this past Saturday. 

Jerad Eickhoff is way below the radar. He started the season by losing his first seven decisions. Then he went on the DL with a back injury. But in his last five starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. 

 This is the Phillies' third game on the West Coast so they should be adjusted to the time change by now. The Phillies had won five in a row before venturing on their current trip.  Philadelphia also is facing Parker Bridwell, who is due for serious regression. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. I don't think he's nearly as good as those numbers. 

Vance Worley has a reserved spot on my list of "F" starting pitchers. Not only do I want to fade Worley, but I want to back the Nationals after they blew a 6-0 lead to the Marlins Tuesday. I can do it at a cheap lay price, too. It just takes a little faith in Nationals pitcher A.J. Cole and a strong belief Washington is going to hammer Worley and a battered Marlins bullpen that has lost their top relievers through trade and injuries.  The Nationals are the best offensive team in the National League. They are 7-2 the past nine times against a righty starter.  Cole looked sharp in his lone big league start this year holding the Phillies to one run on six hits in six innings back on May 6. The Nationals haven't needed him since with their pitching depth. 

The price has come down a little, which is enough for me to get involved backing the Twins here in this day game.  Minnesota has a better road mark than the Padres' home record. Minnesota is the better team and has the better starting pitcher going in a matchup of Ervin Santana versus Luis Perdomo.  Santana is having an All-Star season. He's been at his best on the road and in day games - both of which occur here. Santana is 7-2 with a 2.59 away from home this season and is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA during day action. He also is 2-0 lifetime with a 1.69 ERA in four starts against San Diego.    Opposing hitters are batting just .217 against Santana. The long ball has hurt Santana, but he'll be helped here pitching at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park.  Perdomo is a young up-and-down pitcher. He's not nearly in Santana's class yet. Perdomo has pitched slightly worse at Petco Park with a 4.76 home ERA this year.  The Twins get a boost to their speed game and outfield defense with the return of centerfielder Byron Buxton. 

Have to look to fade the Brewers in a chalk role here as Milwaukee has fallen back to Earth dropping 11 of its last 14 and nine of its last 11. The Brewers are an amazing 0-for-31 with runners in scoring position.  While the Brewers are slipping, the Cardinals are coming on winning five of their last seven to move within 4 1/2 games of the Cubs. Their outfield should get a boost with the expected return today of Stephen Piscotty off the DL.  Carlos Martinez is a stud pitcher who is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in 21 career appearances versus the Brewers. St. Louis is 21-9 in his last 30 starts when he pitches on five day's rest. St. Louis also is 5-1 the past six times Martinez has faced Milwaukee.  Jimmy Nelson has had a nice comeback season. But he's 0-8 with a 7.01 ERA lifetime mark against the Cardinals in 11 games. The Brewers are 3-7 in Nelson's last 10 starts against St. Louis. Nelson is 0-1 in two starts against the Cardinals with a 5.73 ERA this year. 

Look for the Pirates to beat the Padres here in a pitching matchup of Ivan Nova versus rookie Dinelson Lamet.  Nova is a solid pro. This is an important game for the Pirates, who had been playing well until getting nipped by the Padres last night. Nova's last start came at Coors Field and he struggled just like many pitchers when throwing at the league's best offensive stadium.  Nova should fare much better against a much weaker offense and at the premier's pitcher's park in the league, Petco Park. I consider Nova to be a "B" level pitcher. Pittsburgh is 5-0 the past five times Nova has thrown on five days rest.  Lamet has intriguing potential, but he's not ready for the majors. Opponents have caught on to him. Lamet's ERA in his last three starts is 7.36.  The Padres are vulnerable in the bullpen, too, with new closer Brad Hand having pitched and gotten saves during the past three days. So he might be unavailable. Even if he's called on to pitch again, he'll carry a high fatigue rating. Hand is by far the Padres' best relief pitcher. He's also rumored to be on the trading block. The Padres' bullpen is thinned out with former closer Bradon Maurer traded to Kansas City. 

It's good value to take a price on the Rays in a pitching matchup of youngsters Blake Snell versus Caleb Smith.  Snell has pitched better than his 0-6 record shows. Snell held Baltimore to one run in seven innings during his last start this past Monday. He has a 2.38 career ERA in five games against the Yankees.  The lefthanded Smith has a 8.10 ERA. This will be his second big league start. He allowed four runs on five hits and one walk in 3 2/3 innings during his debut against the Mariners at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this past Sunday.  The Rays have won five of the last seven times they've gone against a southpaw starter. 

The Rangers suffered a frustrating loss to the Marlins last night in their first game back in Arlington returning from a 10-game road swing that concluded this past Sunday.  I see the Rangers more relaxed and focused now in their second home game following that extended trip. Texas is four games above .500 at home while the Marlins are three games below .500 on the road.  I'm willing to lay this price backing Cole Hamels against Dan Straily. I respect Straily, but I really like Hamels here. Hamels had his streak of 24 scoreless innings snapped against the Orioles in his last start when he was hammered for seven runs in 5 1/3 innings.  The Orioles have been hot, though, and Hamels still has a 2.96 ERA for the month. The Rangers are 21-5 in Hamels' last 26 home games. The Rangers have been absolutely dominant when Hamels pitches at home against sub .500 opponents winning 13 of the past 14 times. Look for that trend to hold up here. 

This may be the only time I lay a road price with the A's all season, but I want Sonny Gray in a pitching matchup against Cesar Valdez.  Gray is pitching great - 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five starts - and is sure to be pumped in what very well could be his final start in an Oakland uniform.  Valdez is more relief pitcher than starter. He's a journeyman who the A's designated for assignment earlier this season. So Oakland hitters know him. The right-hander has made just three big league starts. Valdez has a 6.92 ERA in those starts. He's filling in here for injured Aaron Sanchez.  The A's have won nine of the last 12 times they've faced a righty starter. They also are 4-0 the past four times Gray has gone against Toronto.  The Blue Jays are going to be sellers, too, at the trade deadline just like the A's. Even with Oakland's terrible road record, I still think the A's are a good price here with Gray pitching. 

Memo to the oddsmakers. St. Louis isn't very good. The Cardinals are four games below .500. Colorado is 16 games above .500 and doesn't deserve to be mid-sized 'dogs facing Mike Leake.  Leake is 1-6 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 10 starts. The problem for Leake is physical, which he admits. Leake said he contracted shingles late last season causing him to lose strength and weight. He said he hasn't fully recovered from that. Leake began the year hot, but sure looks worn down now.  "All I know is my body feels different every start," Leake was quoted as saying. "I try to do the best I can with what I'm given each day. It's a matter of getting these kinks worked out and being able to get the strength back."  Leake hasn't been able to do that in his past 10 starts. He's facing a hot Rockies offense that is averaging 10.5 runs in its last seven games. Leake has a bad history, too, versus Colorado with a 7.52 ERA in four career starts.  Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela won his last start beating the Padres this past Tuesday and shut out the Cardinals for eight innings in a 10-0 victory on May 26. The Cardinals had problems with Senzatela's sinker.  This is a bad spot also for the Cardinals. They played in the Sunday night game last night and could be without leadoff hitter, Matt Carpenter. He left last night's game in the second inning with a quad injury. 

I like the Mariners as a home 'dog here in a matchup of righty Andrew Moore versus over-the-hill lefty CC Sabathia.  Moore has walked just two batters in 24 innings. He's prone to the long ball, but will be helped pitching in spacious Safeco Field. The Yankees have lost 17 of the past 23 times when facing a righty starter. The Mariners have a winning mark versus southpaws and the offense to do damage against Sabathia. I don't like the Yankees when they play on the West Coast where they are 2-6 this season. The Yankees also have a major concern at closer where Aroldis Chapman hasn't looked right since returning from the DL following rotator cuff inflammation. Chapman has a 5.93 ERA in his last 13 1/2 innings giving up 18 hits and eight walks during this span. His fastball has lost steam and is secondary pitches haven't been consistent. 

The Orioles have outscored the Rangers, 25-4, in winning the first three games of this home series.  That's why the Orioles opened a favorite today against Texas. They shouldn't have. Not with Cole Hamels going for the Rangers and Wade Miley pitching for Baltimore. Hamels has it all over Miley in this battle of southpaws.  The Orioles have a losing record versus lefty starters. Now they have to deal with Hamels, the hottest pitcher in baseball. Hamels hasn't allowed a run in 21 straight innings. The Rangers are 19-9 in his past 28 road starts.  Miley began the year with a 2.82 ERA in his first 11 starts. The career journeyman was in line for a serious regression - and it has happened. During his last eight starts, Miley has posted a 10.19 ERA. He has a 1.80 WHIP on the season and a bad track record against the Rangers with a career mark of 1-5 and 5.75 ERA. 

Much better team and a superior pitcher going puts me on the Nationals at this low lay price. Washington is 21 games above .500 - and that's with the worst bullpen in the majors. The Nationals have Gio Gonzalez going and a fortified bullpen with the additions of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. The Nationals have won six in a row.  The Angels are four games below .500, have lost seven of their past 10 and pitching minor leaguer Alex Meyer. The Nationals are the second-best hitting team in baseball. Meyer has control problems. That's not a good combination.  Gonzalez is having his best season since 2012 when he went 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA. He's 8-4 this season with a 2.66 ERA and ranks 17th in strikeouts. Mike Trout only is 1-for-11 lifetime against Gonzalez with six strikeouts. Bryce Harper is supposed to get a day off, but the Angels will be without their leadoff hitter, Cameron Maybin, who suffered a sprained knee last night and will be out at least a couple of weeks.   

Neither Jordan Montgomery nor Jose Berrios have been in good form recently. But Berrios is the better pitcher, the Twins opened as home 'dogs and the spot is ripe to go against the Yankees here.  New York beat Minnesota last night, but is just 10-21 in its last 31 games. The Yankees are 1-9 following a victory. They have lost five of Montgomery's past seven road starts.  The Yankees are excited about acquiring Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox on Tuesday. That's a great move for them, but that buzz is a distraction for this game.  Berrios is a stud prospect. He's been tremendous at home this season going 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA. The Twins are 9-4 in his last 13 starts.  Montgomery doesn't have Berrios' high ceiling. He has a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts giving up 18 hits and four walks in 13 2/3 innings during this span, 

It took up until the All-Star break, but the Cubs are finally coming on. Chicago is unbeaten since the All-Star Game going 4-0. The Cubs have won their past five road contests and are 15-6 on the season versus lefty starters, including winning their last seven against southpaws.  Atlanta is pitching rookie lefty Sean Newcomb. He looked good during his first four big league starts, but the league has figured him out. Newcomb has made two starts this month and is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA giving up 11 runs in 7 1/3 innings. The Braves are playing with a thin bullpen having just recalled hitters Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana. They are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino, perhaps their most talented reliever.  The Cubs are averaging 7.7 runs in their last four games.  Veteran John Lackey gets the start for Chicago. Lackey is having a down season bothered by right foot plantar fascitis. But he has the veteran savvy and a better bullpen going for him that Newcomb lacks.  Lackey also has a 2.59 career ERA versus the Braves in four starts. 

Neither starting pitcher is in good form although both teams have been playing well lately. I just believe it's worth it to get involved with the Rays, the superior team who also have the veteran starter going.  Oakland is in full rebuilt mode. The A's just got considerably weaker in their bullpen dealing Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals for struggling reliever Blake Treinen and minor league prospects.  Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has a 4.63 ERA and is prone to the long ball. He'll be helped here pitching in the spacious Oakland Coliseum.  A's rookie starter Daniel Gossett has a 6.23 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA when pitching at home. Gossett also is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts. 

Zack Godley is an under-the-radar starter with a 2.58 ERA in 11 starts. That's the lowest ERA among Arizona's starters, which include strikeout studs Zach Greinke and Robbie Ray.  Godley hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his starts this season. Arizona is 4-1 in Godley's past five road starts. Godley is in much better current form than Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia. Godley has yielded four runs in his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He's given up five hits with 13 strikeouts during this time frame. Godley, a native of South Carolina, will have extra motivation with many of his family and friends making the trip to Atlanta to watch him today.  The much injury-prone Garcia could be nearing the end at 31. He has a 9.41 ERA in his last four starts with opponents batting .333 against him during this span. Garcia hasn't won during his past seven starts.  The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They should be even better offensively now that star outfielder A.J. Pollock is back in the lineup. The Braves have surprised with their offense because they have been merely average - ranking 16th in runs scored - instead of near the bottom. They are not a top-seven offense, though, like Arizona and rank 27th in homers.  Arizona has more depth than Atlanta, which is especially important on Sunday when teams normally rest some starters. The Braves are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino and closer Jim Johnson carries a fatigue rating having worked an inning each of the past two days. 

Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin.  But perception doesn't fit reality here.  Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form.  Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them.  The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts.  Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.  The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.

Yes, it's a little disconcerting to lay a small road price with the Giants. But this is the game to do it in. The Giants are the better team and they have the superior pitcher going in a matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Clayton Richard. Cueto isn't elite anymore, but he's better than what he's shown this season. He's due for improvement against this weak hitting Padres team, which ranks last in runs and batting average. He's also pitching on his normal four day's rest. San Francisco is 21-6 the past 27 times when Cueto has pitched on four day's rest.  The Giants' morale should be up with Madison Bumgarner slated to pitch this weekend. The Giants are a prideful team. The Padres are in clear rebuild mode. Cueto is a crafty veteran whose style should prove puzzling to San Diego's many young hitters. Cueto is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 career starts versus San Diego.  Richard is who he is, a below average starter with a 4.66 ERA. Richard has close to a 4.00 career ERA against the Giants. 

I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Giants on the road. The Giants have their best pitcher, Johnny Cueto, going against Jose Urena, who has been pitching decently but is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.  Cueto is healthy after being scratched before his last start this past Thursday against the Tigers due to an inner-ear infection. The Giants desperately need this game, while the Marlins are going to be sellers at the trade dealine.  Cueto has pitched better at home. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts and usually is at his best during day games where he sports a lifetime 2.70 ERA.  The Marlins are 19-25 on the road.  The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series. They are swinging the bats better, though, and have won seven of their last 11. 

The Rockies have a much better lineup than the White Sox and are home facing a pitcher who has never pitched at Coors Field.  So I'm going to get behind Kyle Freeland and back the Rockies against the White Sox, who are 19-30 on the road and have a losing mark in day games. The White Sox are 3-11 the last 14 times they've been on the road facing an opponent with a winning home record.  Colorado is 25-18 at Coors and 22-13 in day action. White Sox starter Carlos Rondon has a tendency to be wild. This is just his third appearance of the season as he makes his way back from bicepts bursitis in his pitching arm.  Freeland is a rookie who has looked good enough to be considered Colorado's second or third-best starter. He is 3-0 with a 2.95 in three interleague starts beating the Twins, Mariners and Indians - three teams all better than the White Sox. 

I see the Phillies playing better during the second half of the season. I'm going to back them here with their promising rookie, Nick Pivetta, on the mound. The Phillies have some good young hitters, who haven't performed up to expectations this season. Expect better things from Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who are beginning to step up their game. Pivetta was outstanding in his last start this past Sunday against the Mets. He held the Mets to one run in seven innings.  But the biggest reason I like the Phillies' side at this price is a fade on the road Padres and their starting pitcher, Clayton Richard.  The Padres are 14-27 away from Petco Park. They are 7-20 the past 27 times they've been on the road going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Padres might even be feeling a bit fat and happy after winning a road series against the Indians. Richard has never defeated the Phillies. He's 0-4 against them. Richard is in terrible form allowing 12 runs in his past two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Richard has a 4.85 ERA on the season, which stretches to 4.95 when he pitches in the evening.  

Michael Wacha is pitching his best ball of the season. Tom Koehler is dreadful with a terrible road history. So the choice is simple here - and the price isn't sky high to back the Cardinals. The Marlins are 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts and 2-7 during his past nine road starts. Koehler's road ERA is 4.65 during the last three years compared to 3.65 at Marlins Park. He has been so bad this season that the Marlins sent him down to the minors.  Koehler resurfaced for a start this past Saturday against the Brewers. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up seven earned runs on six hits and two walks, including a homer. I'm surprised the Marlins are giving him another shot.  Wacha, meanwhile, is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past three starts. He struck out a season-high nine in a 2-1 win against the powerful Nationals this past Saturday. Wacha threw a four-hit, six-inning shutout against the Nationals.  The Marlins are 17-24 on the road. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts versus opponents with a sub .500 record.  The Cardinals should have Jedd Gyorko, their leading hitter, back in the starting lineup. 

I'll take the Giants at this price. San Francisco is playing much better winning six of its last seven. The Giants' power - dormant all season - has finally started to emerge. Veterans Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are showing signs of coming around.  Tigers starter Daniel Norris has looked terrible in his past two starts giving up 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, four walks and three homers.  Detroit is 2-6 in Norris' last eight home starts. The Giants have underachieved all season, but the Tigers aren't playing well losing 11 of their last 16.  Ty Blach pitched well when he first entered San Francisco's rotation. Then he went through a slump. The buy sign is back on Blach after his last start where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory last Wednesday. The Tigers have never faced Blach. Detroit could be without its most feared hitter as Miguel Cabrera left yesterday's game due to tightness in his left hip.

All aboard. Tickets please. The Homer Bailey fade train is ready for departure and I'm on board again.  This is close to my limit on laying a price, but it's worth it to go against Bailey, who has shown nothing since returning from elbow surgery. This is Bailey's third start. He's given up 14 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings during his first two starts. Even when he was in his prime, Bailey struggled against the Rockies with a career 4.43 ERA in seven starts.  Now Bailey takes his turn at Coors Field. It's not going to be pretty.  The Rockies have won eight of their last 10 at Coors. Their starter, Kyle Freeland, has pitched better at home with a 3.21 ERA compared to 4.35 on the road. Freeland, unlike Bailey, can be counted on to go at least six innings since he's done that in 11 of his 13 starts. The Reds have dropped 17 of their last 23 games. They could be missing sparkplug Billy Hamilton, who is dealing with a stiff lower back.  

Jeff Locke is a near auto-fade as long as the price isn't sky high.  The combination of backing Adam Wainwright at home while going against Locke puts me on St. Louis. The Cardinals have started to play better winning six of their last eight. They have a winning record versus southpaw starters. Locke, a lefty, has yet to win in six starts this season. He has been terrible with a 5.52 ERA. Locker has a 4.98 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 11 appearances, including 10 starts.  Wainwright almost always is good at home. That's certainly been the case this season where he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts at Busch Stadium. Wainwright has a career 2.37 ERA against the Marlins, too.  St. Louis has won 71 percent of Wainwright's past 51 home starts. 

Call it a strong hunch. But I see regression coming for the overacheiving Brewers while the Orioles, their confidence and morale up after a Sunday win against Tampa Bay, make a move starting with this opening game of their seven-game road trip that takes them into All-Star break.  The Brewers have to fill in for injured Chase Anderson. They are going to give lefty reliever Brent Suter a shot here. Don't expect much. Suter had one previous start this season. That came on June 13 against the Cardinals on the road. He gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings.  The Orioles are starting veteran southpaw Wade Miley. I'm not a big fan of Miley, but the Brewers do have a losing record against lefty starters and the Orioles are 6-1 during Miley's last seven interleague starts. 

What we get with the underdog Twins is this: A team that owns the second-best road mark in the majors and has won 18 of its last 27 away games. We also get the opportunity to go against Royals starter Travis Wood at a plus price.  You mean that Travis Wood, the long-time National Leaguer trying to keep his career afloat as a reliever in the American League? Yep, same guy.  Wood hasn't started since 2015 when he was with the Cubs. He's been buried in the Royals bullpen where he sports a 6.28 ERA and a losing record. The Royals are short on pitching after yesterday's doubleheader so they are attempting to prop up Wood.  The Twins are throwing Hector Santiago. Boh starters are southpaws. The Twins have the better record versus lefty starters than Kansas City. The Royals have dropped seven of their last 10 home games when going against a southpaw starter. Minnesota also has defeated Kansas City in nine of the past 12 meetings.  I don't consider Santiage more than a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. But he's fresh. He only got to work two innings in his last start this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. The Twins have the better closer, too.  Bottom line, though, is fading Wood with a strong road team. 

The Mets have managed to nip the Phillies by one run during each of the last two days.  There's too much value to pass on the Phillies today in a pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta versus Rafael Montero. Both have ERA's well above 5.00, but I like Pivetta's potential much.  Pivetta was blasted by the Diamondbacks at Arizona in his last start. There's no shame in that with the way the Diamondbacks have played and hit in the desert this season. Before that game, Pivetta had allowed three runs in his previous two starts spanning 13 innings with a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Mets' less than awesome lineup is without Michael Conforto and Neil Walker. Both are on the DL. It wouldn't be surprising if other regulars were rested today. Pivetta has the element of surprise on his side, too, as the Mets have yet to face him. Montero, on the other hand, has a 12.00 ERA in five appearances versus the Phillies. The Mets aren't likely to have closer Addison Reed available because he's pitched each of the last three days.  The Mets have pulled within 8 1/2 games of the NL-East leading Nationals. The Mets play at the Nationals for a three-game series beginning Monday so their focus may not be 100 percent on this game. 

Even though the Cubs lost 5-0 in the series opener yesterday, they have owned the Reds in Cincinnati winning 14 of the past 18 times.  The Cubs are 8-1 following a loss. I expect them to bounce back here against rookie Jackson Stephens, who is making his major-league debut. Stephens was 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in Triple A this season. I'd be surprised if Stephens gets another start for a long time as this looks like a one-shot, desperation spot for the Reds.  The Cubs have a strong bridge to closer Wade Davis. Chicago starter Eddie Butler should be counted on to get through six innings. Butler has a 1.00 ERA during his last two starts. He held the Nationals - the No. 2 scoring team in the majors - scoreless in his last start going five innings at Washington this past Monday.  The Reds are far worse than the Nationals, losers of 15 of their last 20 games. 

Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price.  Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings.  Matz has two career starts versus the Marlins and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. 

In Nova we trust. Ivan Nova has been very good for Pittsburgh all season. Nova, not Gerrit Cole, is the Pirates' best pitcher. Nova has been especially strong at home with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts this season. 

 It has been a disappointing year for the Pirates so far, but they have stepped up their play recently going 9-7 in their last 16 games.  I think this is a cheap home price to lay with Nova facing Blake Snell, who is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight starts for Tampa Bay. Snell also doesn't go deep into games, putting the vulnerable Rays bullpen into play probably earlier than usual.  Snell has been so bad the Rays sent him to the minors. Now he's back up. Don't expect much. 

The record shows Matt Moore to be 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA. His Giants have lost 11 of 12 and are in danger of being swept at home by the Mets.  So why get involved with the Giants especially when laying a mid-sized price?  Oddsmakers aren't stupid. There's a reason why the Giants are favored here.  Moore pitches much better at home and in day games. His road ERA is 8.39. At AT&T Park his ERA is 3.07. Moore has a 3.23 ERA in day games. His ERA at night rises to 8.02. I also like what I saw from Moore during his last start. That was at Atlanta this past Tuesday. Moore allowed three runs in seven innings with six strikeouts and one walk in getting the victory in a 6-3 win. Moore was shelled in his prior start before beating the Braves, but that came at Coors Field.  The Mets have swept just one series this season. They caught the Giants in a bad spot during the first two games of the series because San Francisco had to fly back from Atlanta late Thursday following a long rain delay. The Giants are settled in now and embarrassed about their poor season. This is a crucial homestand for them.  The biggest thing the Giants have going today is facing Rafael Montero. The Mets are down several starters so they're forced to bring Montero in from the bullpen to make a spot start. Montero is dreadful. He's lucky to only have a 6.49 ERA considering he's given up 36 hits and 19 walks in just 26 1/3 innings.
 

I once liked Anibal Sanchez. But that was back in his prime when he pitched for the Marlins. The 33-year-old Sanchez has been with the Tigers the past five seasons. His ERA was 4.99 two years ago. It was 5.87 last year. This season it's 9.35.  Detroit has lost seven consecutive games, the most losses the Tigers have suffered in a row all season.  The Padres are one of the worst teams in the majors. But they are a .500 club at home and the Tigers definitely are worth fading right now.  Sanchez had been so bad in 11 relief appearances, the Tigers shipped him to the minors. This is his second start since returning to Detroit. The Tigers are 3-11 in Sanchez's past 14 road starts.  Padres starter, 24-year-old Dinelson Lamet, is an intriguing rookie with tremendous stuff. He has 37 strikeouts in 24 innings and will be making his sixth big league start. Command and giving up the long ball have hurt him.  But the Tigers have never seen Lamet, who will be helped throwing in spacious Petco Park. The Tigers remain without injured Victor Martinez, who isn't scheduled to play again until Tuesday because of an irregular heart beat. 

There are many reasons to like the underdog Mets here. Situation, pitching matchup and the possibility the Giants are going to be without their two best offensive players head the list.  Let's begin with the spot. It's terrible for the Giants. They had to play a night game in Atlanta Thursday night, losing 11-10 . The game was delayed nearly 1 1/2 hours because of rain. So the Giants didn't get home from the long journey until this morning. They've been on the road for eight days. Not only are they going be down physically, but their focus and concentration figure to be off, too. It was unfair the Giants had to play a night game, not a day game on Thursday, knowing they had to return home to play tonight. Things are made worse for them by the long rain delay.  Because of this, there's the strong chance the Giants will rest star catcher Buster Posey, who has played 10 straight days. San Francisco also likely is to be missing Eduardo Nunez. He's been dealing with a hamstring injury and could go on the DL. Nunez is second to Posey in team batting and has 17 steals. No other Giant has more than six steals.  The Mets have been in California having just wrapped up a three-game series with the Dodgers. The Mets have a better road record than home mark. San Francisco is four games below .500 at home.  The pitching matchup is Seth Lugo versus Ty Blach.  Lugo is no Tyler Pill. In other words, he's not a stiff, but a below-the-radar, underrated pitcher who is overlooked because he's been out with an elbow injury and the Mets are loaded with good, young arms. This will be Lugo's third start of the season since returning from injury. He has a 2.63 ERA. The Giants rank last in the majors in runs scored and second-to-last in homers. I'm expecting a strong performance from Lugo.  Blach started out well in replacing injured Madison Bumgarner. Lately, though, the opposition has adjusted to Blach as he's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts.  The weather forecast is for wind to blow out to left field at around 15 mph making right-handed Yoenis Cespedes the most dangerous hitter in the game.  

Granted, Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 mph from 93.8 last year.  But Arrieta still rates a strong edge against Marlins starter Jeff Locke and the defending world champions still are much superior to the Marlins.  Arrieta has a good track record versus Miami with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts. He'll be helped pitching at Marlins Park, a pitcher's park.  Locke may be the worst player ever to appear in an All-Star game. He's 0-2 with a 4.58 in four starts this season after coming off the DL. The southpaw is 1-5 lifetime against the Cubs with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances, including 11 starts.  Wildness is an issue with Locke and the Cubs draw the most walks versus lefties of any team. It's one of the reasons why the Cubs have won 63 percent of their games against lefty starters this season.

I put Minnesota's Nik Turley at the head of my list of worst starting pitchers. The 27-year-old journeyman has been with nearly half of the organizations in the majors leagues and that's not an exaggeration.  It's amazing Turley still is in the Twins' starting rotation. Fading Turley at this low lay price is a gift.  White Sox starter Jose Quintana is respectable. He's coveted in the trade market. Quintana is in decent form, too, with a 3.12 ERA in three starts this month.  Turley has made two starts. He's been hammered in both of them by the weak-hitting Giants and Indians. His ERA is 12.46. Opponents are batting a mind-boggling.436 against him. The White Sox should have some motivation trying to avoid a series sweep. The Twins haven't swept an opponent at home since hosting the Royals to start the season. Minnesota is eight games under .500 at home this season, dropping 10 of their last 14 at Target Field.  

The Pirates have halted the Brewers' momentum winning the first two games of this series at Miller Park.  Milwaukee has left a staggering 34 runners on base during the series.  Look for things to change today in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Junior Guerra. I'm not a fan of Williams, who has a 5.16 ERA on the season. His road ERA is nearly 5.00 in seven away appearances, including four starts.  Guerra is below-the-radar. He's the Brewers' second-most consistent pitcher. Opponents are batting only .191 against him and he has a 2.84 ERA on the year. Guerra has a lifetime 1.42 ERA versus Pittsburgh in four appearances, including three starts.  The Brewers have a strong track record when Guerra pitches against sub .500 opponents winning nine of the last 11 times. The Pirates could be without starting catcher Franciso Cervelli. He missed yesterday's game due to flu-like symptoms.  The Brewers have dominated the Pirates at home through the years, winning 72 percent of their last 87 home games against them.

The Mariners aren't going to keep winning relying on Mike Zunio to hit homers, Taylor Motter to perform like a starting shorstop and Ariel Miranda to keep pitching above his skill level especially with Nelson Cruz in a slump and Jean Segura still not back in action. I see value with the underdog Tigers here and a buy sign on Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has dropped far from his days as a very good pitcher for the Nationals. But he's below-the-radar right now having given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.  Miranda, on the other hand, has pitched better than expected. The lefty's regression, though, is beginning to kick in. Miranda was hit hard by the Twins during his past start giving up six runs on 10 hits in four innings, including surrendering three homers. The Tigers are 10-7 against southpaw starters this season. 
 

The Nationals have won 12 of their last 15 road games, but are coming off a loss to Jacob deGrom yesterday. Look for the Nationals to bounce back against the Marlins today and a much weaker pitcher, southpaw Justin Nicolino. 

 Washington ranks among the top four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Nicolino is more pitcher than thrower heavily relying on location to have any chance of success. He figures to be rusty having not pitched since May 30 because of a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.  Even at his best, Nicolino is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. The Marlins are 1-11 the past 12 times Nicolino has gone against an opponent with a winning record. His career record at Marlins Park is 2-6 and he is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in four games, including three starts, versus the Nationals lifetime. Washington is 7-4 against lefty starters this season. I much prefer Washington starter Tanner Roark, who is a legitimate No. 3 type starter. Roark draws a Marlins lineup still missing the starting left side of their infield with Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria out.   The Nationals' lone weakness is a vulnerable bullpen that has lacked a consistent closer. That may change with the emergence of Enny Romero, who hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 appearances spanning 12 innings.  The Marlins are having problems with their bullpen, too. They blew leads of four runs and two runs during the weekend against the Braves. The Nationals are a much more dangerous hitting club than Atlanta. 

Baltimore has lost eight of its last nine, is down its two top relief pitchers, power-hitting first baseman Chris Davis and is pitching Ubaldo Jimenez.  So, year, I like the Cardinals at this reasonable lay price.  Jimenez should be left in long relief. He's not a legitimate starter anymore as proven with a 7.71 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been tagged for 11 homers in less than 40 innings, The Orioles are minus closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. Lance Lynn is a candidate for Comeback of the Year honors. He has a 2.69 ERA after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. He has been highly consistent, limiting foes to a .189 batting average.

I don't believe Mike Clevinger should be laying this high of a road price. Teams are starting to hit Clevinger more as they learn about him. This will be Clevinger's seventh start of the season. He has allowed five homers in his last three games and his ERA is up to 4.09. Clevinger has a 4.26 ERA in three lifetime starts against Minnesota.  Twins starter Aadlberto Mejia is making his eighth start. Mejia had a bad outing in his last start against the Mariners, which blew up his ERA. However, the southpaw had given up three or fewer runs in his first seven starts. The Indians have a losing record versus lefty starters. 

Nothing against Steven Matz, a young pitcher I like. But the Mets are going to get smoked here.  The Mets are down their starting middle infield - Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker - plus outfielder Juan Lagares.  The Nationals rank in the top four in a number of mjaor offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers, and they Max Scherzer on the mound.  Scherzer may be the best right-hander in baseball. He's in great form, too, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last four starts with a 48-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Scherzer has a strong history versus the Mets, too, with a 2.39 ERA in 13 appearances.   Matz is coming off an elbow injury. This is just his second start of the season. He's stepping way up in class having faced the Braves in his season debut this past Saturday.  The Nationals have won nine of their last 11 road games. They are 22-7 in Scherzer's last 29 road starts. Washington has dominated the Mets at Citi Field also winning 43 of the past 57 times there. 

To make this play more palpable we have to knock down several perceptions. The first being the Angels can't win minus Mike Trout. Not true. They are 9-7 without him, including winning five of their last seven.  The second is the Royals are hot. Yes, they've won four in a row. Those victories have come, however, against the Padres and Giants. Those two teams have the second and third-worst records in the majors.   The third is laying a price with Ricky Nolasco starting. I get that. Nolasco is mediocre. He's lost his last five starts. But he hasn't pitched poorly during those outings giving up three runs or fewer in three of them. He held the Astros, a much stronger offensive team than the Royals, to two runs in seven innings during his last start.  The Royals have scored the fewest runs in the American League so Nolasco isn't exactly going up against the '27 Yankees.  Nolasco's mediocrity trumps Royals starter, Matt Strahm. The lefty will be making his first career major league start. He has been a reliever his entire big league career. Strahm is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 20 games this season. Strahm is getting the nod only because of an injury to Danny Duffy and the Royals losing faith in Eric Skogulund. In other words, he's a desperation ploy.   The Angels are 11-6 versus southpaw starters this season. They've won five of the past six against them. Strahm has control issues walking 18 in 22 innings. He's going to be on a pitch count, too, so the Royals less than stellar middle relief figures to get plenty of work.  I'd much prefer Nolasco against Strahm and a motley collection of Royals relief pitchers. The Royals are five games under .500 on the road. The Angels are at their best hosting opponents with a losing away mark winning 21 of the past 29 times against them.  

My reluctance on laying a road price with the Orioles is overcome by Chicago starting Miguel Gonzalez, who is 1-7 with a 6.56 ERA in his last eight starts. He's allowed 10 home runs in his last 46 2/3 innings.  The Orioles are minus Chris Davis, but have Manny Machado back in the lineup. They are going with Dylan Bundy, who is their most consistent starter. 

The buy sign is on to back Corey Kluber. The former Cy Young Award winner looks to be in elite form again going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts since coming off the DL. He has an 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Indians have won 21 of Kluber's past 26 starts, including all four of his home starts this season.  Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for regression having given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 stars, including the last four. McCarthy is who he is - and that's an average pitcher at best.  The Dodgers also have to deal with the distraction of Yasiel Puig, who drew national headlines for making an obscene gesture last night. 

Zach Greinke versus Buck Farmer is a massive starting pitching edge for Arizona. The Diamondbacks also have the superior offense. So, at this low lay price, Arizona is worthy of a solid investment.  From 2014 through 2016, Farmer compiled an 0-6 record with 6.84 ERA being used more in relief than as a starter. Farmer has made two starts this season and not allowed a run in 13 innings. So, suddenly, we have a low price here. I'm not buying into Farmer.   I'd rather go wtih Greinke, who isn't dominant like he once was but still remains well above average. He has a 3.20 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings with only 17 walks. Greinke has made 16 starts at Comerica Park. He's 13-7 lifetime versus Detroit with a 2.79 ERA.  Greinke has been especially strong versus sub .500 teams. Arizona is 17-4 in Greinke's last 21 starts against teams with a losing mark. It's fair to point out that while the Diamondbacks lead the majors in batting at home with a .293 average, they have the worst road batting mark at .219. This is a misleading mark.  Arizona has tremendous offensive players. Paul Goldschmidt is in the argument for best all-around player and Jake Lamb leads the majors in RBIs. Chris Owings is having a breakout season.  This is the first time all season the Diamondbacks get to use a DH. The Diamondbacks have played 20 of their 30 road games at pitcher's parks, including six games at San Diego's Petco Park.   
 

It's a nice story that Jameson Taillon is returning to the mound for Pittsburgh today five weeks after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Taillon is a promising young pitcher, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be following a 3.21 ERA during three rebhad starts in Double A.  The Rockies lead the NL West, are 7-1 in their last eight games and have won 24 of their 35 road games.  Colorado is pitching underrated lefty Kyle Freeland, who has held six of his 12 opponents this season to one or fewer runs. Colorado is 6-0 in Freeland's past six road starts. The Pirates are 7-11 going against southpaw starters.  The Pirates rank 25th in runs and 29th in homers. They may be without their new closer and best relief pitcher, Felipe Rivera. He's gone 1 1/3 innings during each of the last two days.  Colorado has one of the best offenses in baseball ranking fourth in runs and batting average.  This could be an emotional night for the Pirates because of Taillon. But the Rockies are the better team and are getting a price. So they're worth backing here. 

Unlike Saturday, when Sean Newcomb and Matt Wisler made their season debuts, the Braves are going with their best pitcher today: lefty Jaime Garcia. The former Cardinal usually is effective when he's been healthy. Rarely, though, was he healthy with St. Louis. Now he's 100 percent and in great form with a 1.23 ERA during his past four starts. The Mets have a losing record versus southpaws and also a losing road record.  Getting the start for New York is Seth Lugo, who has been out all season recovering from an elbow injury. He makes his season debut after posting a 4.58 ERA in four rehab stats. He hasn't started in eight days.   Lugo is rusty and likely to be on a pitch count. The Mets' bullpen is shaky.  

San Diego just may be the worst team in baseball, 14 games below .500 and in rebuilt mode. So the opportunity to lay a low price against them - especially when the Padres are going with a vulnerable starting pitcher - is a solid investment.  The Padres have been outscored 48-17 in losing five of their last six games. They did win the opener of this series on Friday. But are 2-9 the past 11 times when playing Game 2 of a series. The Royals have won the last six times when playing in the second game of a series.  I'm expecting a bounce back victory from the Royals again with a pitching matchup of Ian Kennedy versus Miguel Diaz. It's easy to get down on Kennedy because he hasn't been pitching well. However, everything sets up well for him here. He's finally healthy after being bothered by a leg injury. He has a good history when pitching at Petco Park - a place he knows well having pitched for the Padres from 2013-15 - and he's 7-2 lifetime against San Diego from his days with Arizona.  The Padres also have the weakest offense in the majors ranking last in runs and batting average.  Diaz is a reliever with a 7.50 ERA who is pressed into starting duty because of an injury to Jared Cosart. Diaz isn't ready. Padres manager Andy Green isn't optimistic either. This is what Green was quoted as saying about Diaz being a starter: "He doesn't have quite the deception necessary to turn lineups over two and three and four times right now. That's a challenge for him." 

I'll take any excuse to fade the A's on the road and this low lay price and pitching matchup gives it to me. Oakland is 8-20 on the road.  Andrew Triggs is slated to go for the A's. He's in bad form with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts. Triggs has surrendered five homers in his last four starts. Tampa Bay ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers.  Rays starter Alex Cobb has pitched better at home and is on extra rest. He is 3-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 2.44 ERA in seven career starts.

The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 and five in a row. I don't see Kyle Gibson ending that streak.  The Twins have overachieved, but now their bullpen is melting down and Gibson is on the mound. He's one of the worst starting ptichers in the majors. Gibson had 25 starts last season and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. He's been even worse this season with a 7.23 ERA. In 42 1/3 innings, Gibson has allowed 57 hits and 23 walks.  The lay price is low, though, because the Mariners are starting Christian Bergman and are minus Jean Segura and likely to be without Nelson Cruz, too. Segura is on the DL and Cruz is dealing with a sore calf.  Bergman got shelled three starts ago. That was on the road against the Nationals, who have the best offense in the majors. In his last two starts, Bergman has pitched well giving up two runs in 13 innings facing the Red Sox at Fenway and Rays at home. Bergman is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.  I find the Mariners to be an excellent bargain being home against Gibson. 

I see a regression coming from the Brewers, who are a surprising three games above .500. So this is a good time to step in against the favored Brewers with a hot pitcher.  Giants starter, lefty Ty Blach, hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts. He's 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during this stretch. Milwaukee has the disadvantage of never having faced him before. Ryan Braun is out for the Brewers and Eric Thames has cooled off. The Brewers also have a losing mark versus southpaws. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is in good form, too, but has yet to become a consistent pitcher. He has a 5.50 career ERA versus the Giants in three starts. The Giants are healthy now in the outfield with Denard Span and Hunter Pence both back in the lineup.