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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-03-21	Red Sox v. A's -127		6-7	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Whether it's physical, mental or both, some pitchers are having trouble dealing with MLB's crackdown on foreign substances. Garrett Richards is one such pitcher. Richards is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA during his last seven starts. He is 2-3 lifetime when pitching at Oakland with a 4.35 ERA during a span of 51 2/3 innings. The A's are tough at home and rate a pitching edge with Cole Irvin, who is coming off an unbeaten June and just beat the Giants this past Sunday. Irvin hurled eight shutout innings against the Giants while giving up just three hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. Oakland has won seven of its last 10 home games. The Red Sox are hot, but still have lost four of their last seven road games.
07-02-21	Red Sox v. A's -101		3-2	Loss	-101	17 h 10 m	Show
History is littered with strong AL East teams on a roll flying cross-country after a successful homestand only to encounter trouble in Oakland. This should be another example. Boston is riding a seven-game win streak. All of those victories came at Fenway Park. Now the Red Sox visit Oakland, a place where they have lost 70 percent of the time during their past 56 games there. It's Boston's first road game in eight days. The Red Sox are 2-4 in their past six away contests. Oakland is tough at home again this season. The A's have won seven of their past nine home games and have a pitching edge with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Frankie Montas. Rodriguez has a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts. His career mark versus the A's is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA. Montas has been solid in all but four of his 16 starts, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer 12 times. He has a 1.13 career ERA versus the Red Sox in three appearances.
07-01-21	Giants -136 v. Diamondbacks		3-5	Loss	-136	13 h 47 m	Show
Giants minus $1.36 at Diamondbacks The Giants haven't lost four in a row all season. I certainly don't see it happening here. Despite their three-game losing streak, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 50-29. Arizona has the worst mark at 22-60. The Diamondbacks are a mind-boggling 2-24 in their last 26 games! San Francisco has dominated Arizona winning the past 10 meetings. The pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto versus Merrill Kelly. Cueto is 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA. Kelly is 4-7 with a 4.73 ERA. The Giants hold a big bullpen edge. San Francisco has hit the second-most homers in the majors. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors. Arizona also is down two of its best players with Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly injured.
07-01-21	Cardinals v. Rockies +110		2-5	Win	110	13 h 44 m	Show
Fade the Rockies on the road, play on them at home. As I wrote yesterday in picking Colorado to beat the Pirates, there is no team more Jekyll/Hyde with their home/road splits than the Rockies. Losers of 31 of 37 road games, the Rockies are 28-16 at Coors Field while leading the league in home batting average. So I'm interested whenever I see Colorado as a home 'dog, which is the case here. Maybe it's name recognition why the oddsmaker opened St. Louis the favorite since the pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus Antonio Senzatela. Wainwright isn't nearly the star he once was and he's pitched poorly on the road with a 2-2 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to use their star closer either as Alex Reyes has thrown 47 pitches during the last two days. St. Louis has lost nine of its last 10 road contests. The Rockies are 12-2 during their last 14 home games going against a righty starter. Senzatela is that rare pitcher who has fared better at Coors Field where he has a 3.91 ERA on the season. He's facing a St. Louis lineup that has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games. St. Louis also is 6-15 in its last 21 games versus a righty starter.
06-30-21	Twins v. White Sox -123		3-13	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior White Sox at home against the highly disappointing Twins. Chicago is 29-14 at home. The pitching matchup is rookie Bailey Ober versus Dylan Cease. Ober has made five big league starts. He gave up four runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Reds during his previous start eight days ago. Ober doesn't pitch deep into games and is prone to giving up homers. He's gone five innings just once and has surrendered four homers in 21 1/3 innings. He has a 4.64 ERA. The White Sox faced him May 18 and got to him for four runs in four innings. The White Sox, who rank in the top nine in runs and batting average, hit two homers of Ober. Cease is enjoying a breakout season in this his third year. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA. His metrics are improved across the board.
06-30-21	Mets v. Braves -143		2-20	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
Because of a slow start and being injured, Max Fried is undervalued. Fried, though, was pitching well before going on the injured list. He's set to start for Atlanta today. Fried is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.73 ERA in 14 appearances against the Mets spanning 56 innings. Current Mets are batting .178 against Fried lifetime. Fried started turning his season around during the middle of last month. He's had quality outings in six of his last seven starts. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Peterson is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA during his last three road starts.
06-29-21	Twins v. White Sox -129		6-7	Win	100	15 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball with a 33-43 mark. They are the third-largest money burner based on closing lines. The White Sox are 28-14 at home. They have a pitching edge and caught a break with Monday's postponement. Now the White Sox should have Jose Abreu back in the lineup while star closer Liam Hendriks will be available after throwing a combined 29 pitches in appearances this past weekend. The starting pitching matchup is Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito. Maeda has a 4.85 ERA, but has been pitching better lately. Still, he's nowhere near his Cy Young Award runner-up form of last season. Maeda was supposed to start three days ago, but two rainouts have pushed back his start all the way until today. So his routine could be off. Giolito faced the Twins once this season. That came on May 19 and he was dominant. Giolito held the Twins to one run on two hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks. Giolito has a 3.35 home ERA this year. The White Sox have defeated the Twins in six of the past seven meetings.
06-27-21	Yankees -150 v. Red Sox	Top	2-9	Loss	-150	10 h 2 m	Show
Divisions aren't determined by a single June gme. But this may be the Yankees' most important game of the season. New York is 0-5 versus Boston this season, outplayed in every game. The Yankees trail the Rays by six games in the AL East. The Yankees need to beat Boston and they're in great position to accomplish that with a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole against Eduardo Rodriguez. It's a mid-size lay price, but I find value since I would make the Yankees nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win this game. Cole continues to live up to his huge contract and superstar status. He's 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His 123 strikeouts through 15 starts are the most in Yankee history of any pitcher's first 15 starts. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is enduring his worst season. He has a 6.07 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. I don't know if he's fully healthy. He hasn't been good all year and his current form is even worse than his season numbers - an 0-4 record and 7.94 ERA during his last eight games. Opponents are batting .325 against him during this span.
06-25-21	Indians +119 v. Twins		7-8	Loss	-100	10 h 56 m	Show
The 31-43 Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments this season not only to their fans, but also to their bettors. They are the third-biggest money burner in MLB. So I don't get them being favored in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Danny Coulombe. Quantrill has pitched better than his 0-2 record with a 2.74 ERA. He blanked the Pirates for five innings in his last start giving up three hits this past Saturday. The best thing you can say about Coulombe is he's not Randy Dobnak, who was scheduled to start. Dobnak, who is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA, was scratched because of injury. So Coulombe will be making his first major league start. He's been around the majors since 2014. The Twins are his third team. He's thrown only 2 2/3 innings this season giving up two hits and three walks. The Indians hold a major bullpen advantage. Cleveland has won seven of the last nine times it has been a road 'dog.
06-23-21	Rockies v. Mariners +103		5-2	Loss	-100	11 h 46 m	Show
Terrors at Coors Field, meek as a lamb on the road. That's your 2021 Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are 5-28 away this season. It's a record they've earned with their league-low .199 road batting average. Colorado is averaging 1.8 runs during its last 17 road contests. The Rockies needed to be faded on the road - and that's what I'm doing here in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Justus Sheffield. It looks like Colorado has a pitching edge - on the surface. Marquez has 4.26 ERA. Sheffiled's ERA is 5.65. Marquez, however, is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field. He's 0-5 on the road with a 5.74 ERA. Sheffield is better at home where he's 4-2 with a 4.96 ERA. Sheffield faced the Rockies once before. That was last year and he beat them by throwing six scoreless innings.
06-23-21	Cardinals -120 v. Tigers	Top	2-6	Loss	-120	8 h 13 m	Show
Injuries to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull have forced the Tigers to call up Matt Manning. He's Detroit's top pitching prospect. However, Manning's time hasn't come yet. He's being rushed to the lineup too far ahead of schedule. Manning still was learning the ropes in Triple-A where he had an 8.07 ERA for Toledo while surrendering 11 homers in 32 1/3 innings. This will be Manning's second big league start. He pitched five innings against the Angels this past Thursday giving up two runs on four hits in five innings. Now the Cardinals have a first-hand scouting report on Manning. They know for instance that he threw 70 percent fastball against the Angels. It's hard to rely solely on just one pitch in the big leagues. John Gant goes for St. Louis. He has a respectable 3.50 ERA and a 2.08 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in three appearances, including one start. The Cardinals own a huge bullpen edge especially at closer with Alex Reyes, who has 17 saves and a 0.82 ERA.
06-22-21	Giants +116 v. Angels	Top	5-0	Win	116	20 h 18 m	Show
Anthony DeSclafani is underrated. Just like his team, the Giants. San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Angels are a .500 club and without their best player, Mike Trout. DeSclafani is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA. He's 3-0 in his past three starts with a 1.35 ERA during this time span. Angels starter Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent his entire career and he's been inconsistent against this season. Heaney has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts versus San Francisco. The more reliable pitcher is DeSclafani and the Giants are much the superior team. So I'll gladly accept a plus price with them. The Giants have won 13 of their last 17 road contests. They were idle on Monday so their bullpen is rested. The Giants have won each of the past seven times following a day off.
06-22-21	Red Sox v. Rays -110		9-5	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
First the bad news. Tampa Bay has lost six in a row. Now the good news. All of those defeats were on the road. The Rays are back home for the start of this series. Tampa Bay has won 69 percent of its last 94 games at quirky Tropicana Field. The Rays square off against Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a terrible season with a 6.21 ERA. Opponents have reached Rodriguez for at least four runs in six of his past seven starts. Rodriguez is 1-3 lifetime versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. The Rays are going with the two-headed monster of Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough. Kittredge has a 1.34 ERA and is expected to get the start. He has a 2.53 career ERA versus Boston in 15 appearances. Yarbrough, who is expected to take over during the middle innings, has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three appearances spanning 21 1/3 innings.
06-21-21	Brewers -123 v. Diamondbacks	Top	1-5	Loss	-123	19 h 10 m	Show
If the Diamondbacks aren't on your autofade list they certainly should be especially when the lay price is manageable like this one. Arizona has lost 17 in a row! The Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games! Shades of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The Brewers enter this matchup going with Brett Anderson and with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Anderson has a 4.24 ERA, which is still better than Arizona starter Merrill Kelly's 5.40 ERA. Anderson is coming off a magnificent start against the Reds, a much stronger offensive team than the Diamondbacks. Anderson held the Reds to no runs in seven innings allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out nine this past Tuesday. The Diamondbacks will be missing catcher Carson Kelly, who ranked third on the team in homers and RBI's. He suffered a broken wrist against the Dodgers two days ago.
06-20-21	A's +120 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 29 m	Show
Perhaps it's the Yankee mystique. Whatever it is, the wrong team is favored here. The A's are 44-28. That's their best start in 31 years. They are 13-3 this month and have won seven of their past eight games. The Yankees have a losing home record. They are 1-6 in their last seven home contests. Oakland is 19-10 on the road. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefties. The A's have a higher batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws than the Yankees. Oakland is 18-9 against lefthanders. Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA. He has been one of the hottest pitchers with a 3.0 mark and 0.84 ERA in his last five starts. Montgomery is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He has a 4.20 ERA. His day time ERA is 7.11.
06-19-21	Brewers v. Rockies -109		6-5	Loss	-109	11 h 57 m	Show
Don't just look at the Rockies' 30-41 overall record. It must be broken down to home-road. Colorado is the worst road team in the majors. But at Coors Field the Rockies are highly-dangerous going 25-14 while batting a league-best .281. The Brewers know this all too well. They've dropped seven in a row to the Rockies, including the past five in Colorado. The price is right to back Colorado again as Milwaukee is not starting any of its big three. Instead, bottom of the rotation starter Adrian Houser gets the call. The Brewers are cold having dropped five consecutive games. Austin Gomber goes for the Rockies. No pitcher has been more effective at Coors Field lately than Gomber, who hasn't allowed an earned run during his last 23 1/3 innings at Coors.
06-18-21	Phillies v. Giants -126	Top	3-5	Win	100	12 h 16 m	Show
It's past time to give the Giants their due. San Francisco is 44-25, which is the best record in baseball. The Phillies are 12-25 on the road this year. The pitching matchup is Vince Velasquez, who has a 4.25 ERA, versus Johnny Cueto, who has a 4.00 ERA. Velasquez has a 12.9 percent walk rate. Cueto's walk rate is 4.8 percent. The price is fair. So I'm going to ride the Giants. San Francisco has been tremendous in this role winning 25 of the last 31 times it has been home chalk. The Phillies have lost 16 of the last 21 times playing in San Francisco. The Phillies have scored just six runs in their last three games. They are likely to get Bryce Harper back, but are down two key mid-infielders with Jean Segura joining Didi Gregorius on IL.
06-17-21	Cardinals +170 v. Braves	Top	0-4	Loss	-100	14 h 39 m	Show
Maybe the Braves should be favorites here, slight favorites. But at this price the line is outrageous. It presents tremendous value on the Cardinals. St. Louis has won three in a row. The Cardinals have allowed only five runs in their last four games. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games. Atlanta is a season-worst five games below .500. The pitching matchup is John Gant versus Charlie Morton. It's Morton who has the bigger name, but you can make the argument Gant has been the more effective pitcher this season. Morton has a 4.50 ERA. Gant's ERA is 3.36. Gant has been better on the road, too, where his away ERA is 2.27. Morton has a bad history against the Cardinals. He's 2-12 lifetime versus them with a 5.68 ERA in 18 starts. It has been 10 years since Morton last defeated the Cardinals. Atlanta's bullpen has been disappointing, while the Cardinals' Alex Reyes has developed into a top closer ranking fourth in saves with 17 while holding a 0.82 ERA. The Braves' bullpen carries a high fatigue ranking also. Atlanta has permitted 10 runs in each of the past two days. Braves relievers have logged 11 2/3 innings during these last two days. St. Louis has enjoyed good success against the Braves in Atlanta winning 11 of its past 15 visits.
06-15-21	Angels v. A's -120	Top	4-6	Win	100	16 h 54 m	Show
Nothing against southpaw Andrew Heaney, who has been pitching well. But I want the A's going for me here and this price allows me to get involved. Oakland has won 10 of its last 12 games. The A's are off to their best start in seven years going 41-27. Oakland is 44-21 the past 65 times facing a lefty starter at home. Like many teams, the Angels have problems when playing at Oakland losing 11 of the past 15 times there. A's starter Frankie Montas has the same ERA as Heaney at 4.37 with four more strikeouts. Montas has a 2.65 ERA during his last three starts. The Angels are down superstar Mike Trout and also could be without third baseman Anthony Rendon, who suffered a triceps injury last night.
06-14-21	Reds +139 v. Brewers		10-2	Win	139	15 h 56 m	Show
Cincinnati starter Vladimir Gutierrez is a promising rookie with a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Milwaukee starter lefty Eric Lauer is a journeyman, who is the Brewers' No. 6 starter. He's 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Gutierrez beat the Brewers, 7-3, this past Wednesday with a quality start giving up two earned runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts. That was Milwaukee's lone loss in its last 10 games. The Reds, though, also have been hot winning eight of their last 10. The Brewers padded their hot streak by beating the Pirates and Diamondbacks a combined seven times during their last 10 games. Cincinnati is 6-3 on the season versus lefty starters. The Brewers have the superior defense and bullpen. The Reds, however, own a huge offensive edge and the better starting pitcher. So at this plus price, I'll go with the Reds.
06-10-21	Brewers -113 v. Reds	Top	7-2	Win	100	4 h 48 m	Show
Freddy Peralta is having the type of season many envisioned Luis Castillo to be having. Peralta has been one of the best - and most underrated - pitchers in the National League with a 6-1 record and 2.25 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He enters today's game 12 strikeouts away from leading the league with 92 in 64 innings. Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's starts this year. Castillo has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball with a 2-8 record, 6.63 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. I cut him from my Rotisserie team weeks ago without even bothering to try to trade him. I just wanted him off my team. Peralta and Castillo squared off on May 23. The Brewers won, 9-4, getting to Castillo for five runs in five innings. The Brewers also rate a strong bullpen advantage. Milwaukee is 10-2 in its last 12 games. The Reds have lost eight of their last 11 home contests.
06-09-21	Mariners v. Tigers -116	Top	9-6	Loss	-116	17 h 45 m	Show
Casey Mize is here and the Mariners know it. Mize, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, has given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He's dropping way down in class here facing the Mariners after his last two starts were against the White Sox and Yankees. The Mariners saw Mize in Seattle last month - and he dominated them. Mize held Seattle to one earned run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. Detroit is a semi-respectable 14-15 at home. Seattle is 13-18 on the road. The Mariners had five players in their starting lineup last night batting .220 or under. Their team batting average is .208, worst in the majors. Chris Flexen pitches for Seattle. He has a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season. He's pitched much better at home. His road ERA is 8.10 in four starts.
06-09-21	Mets -138 v. Orioles		14-1	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Taijuan Walker versus Matt Harvey in a monster pitching mismatch that should carry with it a much higher price than this. Walker always has been a good pitcher. He just hasn't been healthy too much. But he is now and the results are a 2.17 ERA. He carries a 2.08 during his past three starts. Harvey shouldn't be in a big-league rotation. Much is being made of Harvey pitching against his former team. But that happened back on May 12 at Citi Field. The Mets roughed Harvey up for seven runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. Harvey carries a 3-6 record and 6.62 ERA on the season. The Orioles have been one of the worst home teams in the majors losing 20 of 31 games at Camden Yards.
06-08-21	Giants -129 v. Rangers	Top	9-4	Win	100	24 h 34 m	Show
Maybe the Giants are playing above their heads. Or maybe they are for real. All I know is San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Rangers own the third-worst mark in the majors. Texas is 1-11 in its last 12 games. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games. They have won 10 of their past 11 road games. Alex Wood goes against journeyman Jordan Lyles. Wood is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA. He is 2-0 lifetime versus the Rangers with a 0.86 ERA in three career starts versus Texas. Lyles is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA. He is 4-5 career-wise against the Giants with a 5.31 ERA in 22 appearances, including 10 starts. Wood is my clear choice above Lyles, but this is an action play for me. I want the hot Giants against this bad and cold opponent especially when the line is reasonable like it is here. The Giants did suffer a major injury with Evan Longoria being put on the injured list with a shoulder strain. The good news for San Francisco is it expects to get back Brandon Belt. Tuesday Free Play A's minus 1 1/2 runs plus $1.09 (run line) hosting Diamondbacks Unless you're in the habit of laying monster juice, which I'm not, the only way to fade the Diamondbacks on the road is to play the run line. That's what I'm doing here with the A's. Arizona has lost a franchise-record 17 straight games on the road! The Diamondbacks have lost 29 of their past 35 overall games. Oakland is 4-1 in its last five games and was idle on Monday. The A's are 8-0 this season following a day off. The pitching matchup also lends itself to backing the A's. It's Arizona rookie Jon Duplantier versus Chris Bassitt. Duplantier has been talked about the past couple of seasons as a promising pitcher with a high ceiling. That hasn't materialized. Duplantier wasn't good at Triple-A Reno this year with a 7.71 ERA and his big league ERA is 9.35 in two starts. Duplantier last faced the Brewers this past Thursday and surrendered five runs in four innings. Bassitt has been very solid. Oakland is 9-1 in his 10 starts this year. Only once during his past eight starts has Bassitt walked more than one batter and that was just two.
06-07-21	Marlins +135 v. Red Sox		3-5	Loss	-100	8 h 16 m	Show
Pablo Lopez is an underrated starter carrying a 2.82 ERA. The Red Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The situation isn't ideal either for Boston. The Red Sox return home for the first time since May 29 fat and happy having just completed their first three-game road sweep of the Yankees, their most hated rival, since 2011. The Red Sox nipped the Yankees, 6-5, in 10 innings in the Sunday night game. This was supposed to be a day off for Boston. But instead the Red Sox have to play this single makeup game against Miami because of a May 30 rainout. Boston hosts the Astros on Tuesday. The Red Sox may not have slugger J.D. Martinez. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. The Marlins have their confidence up after halting an eight-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory against the Pirates on Sunday. The Marlins usually are pesky. They lost five games by one or two runs during their recent losing skid. Miami will be facing Nick Pivetta, who is having a good season with a 6-1 record and 3.77 ERA. The Marlins are familiar with Pivetta, who used to pitch for the Phillies. Pivetta has a bad history against the Marlins with a 2-4 lifetime mark and 5.36 ERA in 11 appearances, including eight starts.
06-05-21	Dodgers -132 v. Braves		4-6	Loss	-132	12 h 27 m	Show
The Braves have never defeated Clayton Kershaw in 11 regular season tries and I don't see them ending that streak here. After a bumpy beginning, the Dodgers have gotten it together as expected going 16-6 during their last 22 games. LA is tough on the road winning 50 of its last 74 away contests for 68 percent. Kershaw has a 1.78 career ERA versus Atlanta. He's taking on Charlie Morton, who has shown regression with a 4.11 ERA. Morton has a 6.55 ERA against the Dodgers in two career starts versus them.
06-04-21	Indians -112 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-112	17 h 9 m	Show
Break up the Orioles. They've won two in a row. They also had lost 14 straight games before then. Baltimore also has the worst home mark in the majors by far at 8-19. The price is cheap to back the road Indians here. The pitching matchup is Jean Carlos Mejia versus lefty Keegan Akin. It's the first big league start for Mejia and second start of the year for Akin. Mejia hasn't been scored on this season in five innings of relief. He's given up just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts. Akin has a 4.80 ERA. The Indians are 8-2 in their past 10 road games when facing a lefty starter. But the pitching matchup isn't the reason I want Cleveland. This is an action play for me based on laying a low price with a far superior team. Friday Free Play Nationals plus $1.02 at Phillies Keep an eye on emerging superstar Juan Soto. He's coming on. Soto is a factor, but there are other reasons why I like the Nationals as an underdog to the Phillies. The pitching matchup is Max Scherzer versus Zack Wheeler. I like Wheeler, who is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA. But I like Scherzer better. The future Hall of Famer still is very good with a 2.34 ERA. He shouldn't have to deal with Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius, both of whom are expected to be out due to injuries. Scherzer is 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA in eight career starts with the Nationals at Philadelphia. The Phillies blasted the Reds, 17-3, in their last game. That was back on Tuesday, though. The Phillies have been idle since so they could be a little rusty. Prior to that massacre of the Reds, the Phillies were averaging a puny 2.1 runs in their past six games.
06-03-21	Cubs v. Giants -123		2-7	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
This is a short price to get the Giants at home. San Francisco has the best record in baseball and is 15-8 at home. The Cubs are making their first West Coast trip of the season. They have a losing road mark on the season and have lost six of the past eight times in San Francisco. Chicago is 3-8 the past 11 times as a road 'dog, while the Giants have won 23 of the past 31 times they've been home chalk. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies, who has a 4.65 ERA, versus Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 3.56 ERA. I like DeSclafani better, but this is an action play for me. The Cubs haven't been on the road since May 27. Now they go against the team with the best mark in baseball.
06-03-21	Rangers v. Rockies -107		6-11	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
The Rangers have lost 14 straight road games. The price on the Rockies is extremely short. Nolan Ryan isn't pitching for Texas. Enough said? OK, here's some more. The Rangers have lost eight consecutive overall games. They've been on the road since May 24. The Rangers' finally return home following this game. So their minds and morale may not be fully focused. More? Texas has the fourth-worst record in baseball. Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 home games and usually plays much better at Coors Field. The pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Austin Gomber. Foltynewicz is 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA. Gomber, a lefty, is 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA. Gomber is in outstanding form with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts with a 26-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio spanning 23 1/3 innings. He's also pitched well at hitter-friendly Coors with a 1.88 ERA. Texas is 17-40 the last 57 times it has faced a southpaw on the road.
06-02-21	Rangers v. Rockies -104	Top	3-6	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
This is a great price to back the Rockies at home against a bad Rangers team that has lost seven in a row and 13 straight on the road. Colorado has won seven of its last nine games at Coors Field. The Rockies have won 69 percent of the past 98 times they've been a home favorite. The Rockies' home edge is enhanced with capacity increased to 70 percent, which could mean 35,000 fans in the stands. The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles versus Antonio Senzatela. I'm not a fan of Lyles, who is a journeyman and has a 5.79 ERA. His ERA was 7.02 last season. Lyles has been on five teams in the last five years. The Rangers' bullpen is short on depth due to injuries. Senzatela has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. He's pitched better at home than on the road. But this is an action play for me. I want the Rockies at home at this short price against a Rangers squad trying to halt a 13-game road losing skid.
06-01-21	Rangers v. Rockies -111	Top	2-3	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
The Rockies should be fine returning to Coors Field where they have won six of their last eight games. German Marquez knows how to pitch there. Marquez is in good form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. The Rangers have lost 12 consecutive road games. They figure to have trouble at Coors Field. Dane Dunning gets the start for them. Dunning looked good early in the season, but he's fallen on hard times. He gave up seven runs on seven hits in just four innings this past Wednesday to the Angels. Dunning is 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA in five road starts this season.
05-31-21	Angels v. Giants -130	Top	1-6	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
Because of having the worst bullpen ERA in the majors and being a below average defensive team, especially without Mike Trout, the Angels need strong starting pitching. They haven't been getting that from Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a whopping 15.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants faced Bundy last August and he couldn't reach the fifth inning giving up two homers in an 8-2 loss. The Giants have been a major surprise with the second-best record in the National League and third-best overall mark. San Francisco is a strong 22-7 as home chalk. The Giants hold bullpen, defense and starting pitching edges with Johnny Cueto on the mound to oppose the cold Bundy. Cueto isn't an ace anymore, but he's a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter with a lifetime 1.35 ERA against the Angels in four starts, including a 7-2 win against them last Aug.
05-30-21	Cardinals -112 v. Diamondbacks		2-9	Loss	-112	6 h 4 m	Show
Once again the price is right to fade the Diamondbacks, who have lost 13 in a row and 23 of their last 27 games. The Diamondbacks continue to display bad pitching, bad defense and untimely defense. The pitching matchup favors St. Louis, too. Kwang-Hyun Kim has a 3.09 ERA. Kim doesn't go too many innings, but he's proven tough to score against. Arizona is pitching Matt Peacock, who has a 4.91 ERA. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Arizona.
05-29-21	Cardinals -134 v. Diamondbacks		7-4	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
Even at 39, Adam Wainwright can come up with a gem. He did last Sunday against the Cubs holding them to one hit and one walk in eight scoreless innings. But starting pitching isn't the main reason I'm getting behind the Cardinals here even though the Diamondbacks are pitching Seth Frankoff, who has a 7.27 ERA. I just want to keep fading the Diamondbacks. They've lost 12 in a row and 15 of their past 16. They are the worst team in the National League. The lay price isn't too crazy either in which to go against Arizona.
05-28-21	Padres +104 v. Astros	Top	10-3	Win	104	16 h 6 m	Show
Dinelson Lamet and Framber Valdez are promising young pitchers, who are coming back from injuries. Lamet has shown more upside and is further along than southpaw Valdez. I think it's wrong that Lamet and the Padres opened as underdogs. Lamet finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season. He's 1-0 with a 1.64 in five appearances this season. He's yet to pitch more than three innings because the Padres are being extremely careful with him. Lamet could start to get stretched out beginning with this game. Valdez is making his first start of 2021. He's probably going to be on a pitch count. Valdez was 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA last season. San Diego has won the last four times it has faced a lefty starter. The Padres have been red-hot winning 11 of their last 13 games. Houston is 1-4 in its last five games. This is just the second series of the season where the Padres get to use a DH. They swept the Rangers three games in their first road series against an AL opponent.
05-27-21	Cardinals -121 v. Diamondbacks		5-4	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Sooner or later, the Diamondbacks will win a game. They've lost by two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. But the bottom line right now is Arizona has dropped 19 of its last 22 games, including the past 10. This is the Diamondbacks' longest losing skid in 11 years. So as long as the lay price is manageable, which it is here, I'm going to fade Arizona. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez is having a solid season. He's held four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He holds a career 2.51 ERA versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks are going with Matt Peacock, who is making only his third big league start.
05-25-21	Cardinals +130 v. White Sox	Top	3-8	Loss	-100	19 h 6 m	Show
Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito are heavyweight pitchers. But I'm siding with Flaherty especially in the rare role as an underdog. Flaherty is a solid Cy Young candidate being 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The White Sox dominated against lefty starters, but are just 17-16 versus righthanded starters. Giolito has a 4.35 ERA this season, although he has been pitching better. This will be his third career start against St. Louis. He's allowed eight runs of which seven were earned in 11 1/3 innings against the Cardinals. Giolito has to deal with a hot Nolan Arenado, who has four homers and eight RBI's during his last 10 games. He's 3-for-3 lifetime lifetime versus Giolito. Tuesday Free Play Red Sox plus $1.09 hosting Braves The Red Sox have been a tremendous money-maker as an underdog winning 14 of the past 17 times in that role. They opened as a slight 'dog hosting the Braves in a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Garrett Richards. Morton has a 4.60 ERA. His road ERA is 4.41. He's surrendered a home run in six of his last seven starts. This could prove significant because the Red Sox are nearly as powerful as the Braves. Atlanta leads the majors with 78 homers after smacking 15 of them during their recently concluded four-game series against the hapless Pirates. The Red Sox, however, have hit the second-most homers in the American League with 65. They are the only team that has three players in double figures in homers with Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez. Richards has pitched well very well this month going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA. He's held the opposition to only two homers during his past seven starts.
05-24-21	Indians +118 v. Tigers		6-5	Win	118	7 h 23 m	Show
Congrats to Spencer Turnbull on throwing a no-hitter against the Mariners during his last start six days ago. But I'm not buying the Tigers as a favorite against the Indians even in a pitching matchup of lefty Sam Hentges versus Turnbull. The Tigers have a losing record against lefty starters. Cleveland has one of the best bullpens in the majors so Hentges doesn't have to go deep in this game. It's not the worst thing to go against a pitcher after he throws a no-hitter, especially an unlikely one such as Turnbull, who has a terrible history against Cleveland. Turnbull is 0-6 lifetime versus the Indians with a 5.18 ERA in nine appearances. The Indians are batting .325 against him with a .482 slugging percentage. Cleveland is 11-4 the past 15 times going against a righty starter and has won five of the past six times it has been a 'dog.
05-21-21	White Sox +101 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 25 m	Show
After facing the Orioles and Rangers during the final seven games of their 10-game road swing, the Yankees return home to face a real team - the White Sox. The White Sox have turned the corner, owning the best record in the American League at 26-16. Carlos Rodon is one reason for this. He's been magnificent going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Rodon has 49 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings this season. I prefer Rodon far more than Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who I view as the weak spot in their rotation. Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA and is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles giving up five runs in just three innings. Worse, Montgomery is lefthanded. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 23-2 (92 percent) versus southpaw starters since the start of last season! The White Sox rank in the top three in runs and batting average. The Yankees are 22nd in runs and 24th in batting average. Friday Free Play Cardinals plus $1.07 hosting Cubs Don't be fooled by the Cubs taking three of four from the Nationals. That series was played at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have yet to show they can perform well on the road losing 12 of their 18 away contests. This applies to Kyle Hendricks, too. He has a 6.17 road ERA. St. Louis has won 14 of its 22 home games. Carlos Martinez is coming off the injured list to start. Perhaps bothered by a sprained ankle that landed him on the IL, Martinez surrendered five runs on six hits and five walks in five innings against the Rockies during his previous start on May 8. Before that performance, Martinze had been dominant in three straight starts giving up two earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 0.84 ERA. The Cubs can't seem to get fully healthy as Jason Heyward just went on the injured list.
05-17-21	Indians +127 v. Angels	Top	4-7	Loss	-100	15 h 13 m	Show
There are very few teams the Angels should be favored against when starting Patrick Sandoval - and the Indians aren't one of those teams. Cleveland has defeated the Angels eight straight times, outscoring them by nearly three runs a game during this win streak. The Indians own a winning road record. The Angels have a sub .500 home mark. Southpaw Sam Hentges is set to make his second career start for Cleveland. He tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first start five days ago against the Cubs. Hentges has 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this year. The Angels are 2-9 in their past 11 games versus a lefty starter, including 2-7 this season. They are batting .225 against southpaws. The Angels have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their past 14 games. Sandoval has a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP pitching in relief. This will be his first start of the season. He's expected to be on around a 60-65 pitch count setting up a bullpen game for the Angels, who have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.32. Monday Free Play White Sox minus $1.05 at Twins At some point the Twins have to improve on their 13-25 record. They certainly aren't that bad. But I don't see Minnesota starting to turn around its season in this game. Yes, the Twins draw aging and declining Dallas Keuchel. But the White Sox get southpaw J.A. Happ. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 22-2 against lefty starters since the start of last season. Chicago leads the majors in batting against lefties at .293. The next closest is the Red Sox at .282. Happ found out the hard way how well the White Sox hit and play against lefties when he faced them in a 13-8 loss this past Wednesday in Chicago. The White Sox battered Happ for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, by far his worst outing of the season. The 38-year-old Happ is another over-the-hill veteran, who has a bad history against the White Sox. His ERA is 6.34 in nine career starts versus Chicago. The White Sox lead the American League with a .343 on-bast percentage. Current White Sox batters are hitting a combined .333 versus Happ. Chicago enters this series having won eight of its last 10, while the Twins have dropped nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota is giving up an average of 7.1 runs in its last seven games.
05-16-21	Phillies v. Blue Jays -163	Top	8-10	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
Yes, we're getting into the high chalk range here as I usually don't like to lay more than minus $1.50 on a baseball game unless I perceive excellent value on the favorite. That's the case here. Lefty Robbie Ray is riding a tremendous hot streak, the Phillies have problems hitting southpaw starters and they are dealing with multiple injuries that could leave them without four starters for this game, including Bryce Harper. Another thing. The Phillies are starting Chase Anderson. The journeyman has a 5.23 ERA this season. The Blue Jays know him well since he was on their team last season. Ray has 33 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 24 2/3 innings. Ray is a monster strikeout pitcher. The negative with Ray has been his high walk ratio and many base runners. However, Ray's WHIP is 1.10 this season. That shrinks to 0.91 going by his last four starts where he has a fantastic 33-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio! The Phillies have played 12 games against lefty starters. These opposing southpaws have a combined 2.80 ERA against Philadelphia with a 77-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lefty Anthony Kay held the Phillies scoreless in four innings on Saturday giving up just one hit and striking out six. The Phillies are going to be without injured shortstop Didi Gregorius and also likely won't have Harper and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Both left Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays with injuries. Harper has shoulder soreness while Realmuto has a sore wrist. Andrew McCutchen also had a hip problem in that game so he may sit out today.
05-14-21	Indians -107 v. Mariners		3-7	Loss	-107	9 h 13 m	Show
Maybe I'm missing something here. But if I am, I'm not sure what it is because I'm surprised the Indians are such a short favorite. The Indians check the boxes. Current form? Cleveland is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Seattle has lost five in a row. Pitting matchup: Aaron Civale is 5-0 with a 2.91 ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation starter. Chris Flexen has a 3.78 ERA. He's a bottom-end type rotation starter. Offense: The Indians are averaging 4.5 runs in their last four games. They rank 17 in runs. The Mariners are averaging 2.2 runs in their past four games. They rank 22nd in runs. History: The Indians have won six of the past seven games against the Mariners. Cleveland is 4-0 in its last four visits to Seattle.
05-14-21	Cubs -132 v. Tigers	Top	4-2	Win	100	16 h 11 m	Show
Cubs minus $1.35 at Tigers In Jake we trust? I don't know if I can fully commit to Jake Arrieta, but I do know I want to fade Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are 0-5 in Skubal's starts. A big reason for this is Skubal has a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Skubal doesn't figure to get bailed out either by a bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 6.55 ERA through this past Wednesday. Arrieta was pitching well up until his last start giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. His ERA was 2.57 through five starts. But then he faced the Reds, the second-highest scoring team in the majors, and was hit for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on April 30. Arrieta was bothered by a cut on his right thumb during that start, which could explain his poor performance. This will be Arrieta's first time pitching since then. He's facing a weak Detroit lineup that ranks 29th in runs and is last in OPS. The Cubs were 5-1 until losing a pair of one-run games to the Indians with one of those defeats occurring when going against Shane Bieber. So certainly no shame in that. The Cubs were getting base runners, but went a mind-boggling 2-for-27 in runners in scoring position during that Indians series. That should change against Skubal and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The Cubs are banged-up, but were idle on Thursday. So today they could see a return to the lineup of Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner.
05-11-21	Yankees v. Rays +119	Top	3-1	Loss	-100	18 h 25 m	Show
I can see the Yankees being a road favorite against the Rays if Gerrit Cole is on the mound. But he isn't here. It's Jordan Montgomery so this number is off. The Yankees have a lot of trouble against the Rays, going 5-18 during the last 23 meetings. New York has lost eight of the past 10 times on Astroturf, too. Quirky Tropicana Field gives the Rays a solid home field edge, especially against the Yankees. Montgomery won his first start back on April 5. He hasn't won since. He has a 4.41 ERA on the season and a bad history versus the Rays - 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA. This includes two starts against the Rays this season where he's 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. The Yankees are going to have to deal with Luis Patino for a few innings. He's an exciting young fireballer with 10 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings and a 1.17 ERA. The Yankees have never faced him, which is to their disadvantage. Tampa Bay has continued its domination of the Yankees this year going 5-1. I don't see that domination ending in this matchup.
05-09-21	Rays v. A's -109		4-3	Loss	-109	6 h 46 m	Show
Tampa Bay rookie Shane McClanahan has electric stuff. He's shown that through two big league starts. But how is his command? How is his control? How much stamina does he have? I don't have those questions for Oakland starter Cole Irvin. He's earned trust with me going 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA during his last four starts. Irvin is coming off eight innings of work against the Blue Jays where he allowed only one run with nine strikeouts this past Tuesday. The A's are strong at home and have been playing well winning 20 of their last 27 games. The Rays have two significant injuries to the middle of their defense with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and catcher Francisco Mejia both out with injuries.
05-07-21	White Sox -145 v. Royals		3-0	Win	100	10 h 35 m	Show
Best American League pitcher in April? Allow me to nominate Carlos Rodon, who went 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA. Rodon has given up just two earned runs in 25 innings and has 36 strikeouts. The Royals had been a major surprise, but reality is catching to them. They've lost five in a row to fall out of first place in the AL Central. The Royals are hoping Brad Keller, backed by a cold Royals bullpen that has a 5.80 ERA during the last two weeks, can halt the skid. Not in this spot, though. Keller hasn't contributed to the Royals' early success with an 8.06 ERA. The White Sox are 22-9 the past 31 times as road chalk and have won seven in a row at Kansas City.
05-05-21	Blue Jays v. A's -118	Top	9-4	Loss	-118	14 h 45 m	Show
I had the A's at around this price Tuesday night and I'm coming right back on them. Oakland has won 11 of its last 13 home games. The A's have faced lefty starters in four of their last five games, going 4-1 in those games. Long-term, the A's have won 75 percent of their last 63 games versus southpaw starters. This doesn't bode well for Toronto starter, southpaw. Robbie Ray. I think every fantasy baseball owner has flirted with Ray at some point in some league. Ray always disappoints. Yes he gets strikeouts. But he also walks way too many batters, which leads to a high ERA and ratio. I prefer Oakland starter Chris Bassitt, who has become dependable. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts with at least eight strikeouts in each of these starts. The Blue Jays are missing several players as George Springer is hurt again. Also out is catcher Alejandro Kirk.
05-04-21	Blue Jays v. A's -119		1-4	Win	100	9 h 45 m	Show
I like the A's at home. I especially like the pitching matchup for them here and the price is right to back them. Oakland is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams. The A's have won 10 of their last 12 home games. I had some doubts about Cole Irvin being in a big-league rotation. But Irvin has reached a trust level for me going 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA during his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 20-to-2 during this span. Anthony Kay is slated to make his second start of the season for Toronto. Kay's first start didn't go well. He gave up four earned runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Royals on April 15. The Blue Jays have been reluctant to start him since.
05-03-21	Rays -112 v. Angels		7-3	Win	100	12 h 28 m	Show
Tyler Glasnow at a very reasonable lay price. That's pretty much my handicap in a nutshell. Except for one bad start against the Blue Jays, Glasnow has been unhittable. He's allowed just two earned runs in his other five starts spanning 31 2/3 innings with 46 strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani can't come close to matching that. Ohtani has yet to reach the sixth inning. He's given up 13 walks in 13 2/3 innings. The Rays have won five of their last six road games. They draw the Angels in their first home game following a nine-game road trip. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 19 times.
04-30-21	Marlins v. Nationals +122		1-2	Win	122	6 h 14 m	Show
Emerging superstar Juan Soto is out for the Nationals. But Washington's injury list is nothing compared to the Marlins. Out for Miami are Starling Marte, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper. The Marlins have to count on Pablo Lopez to keep them in this game and Lopez has been dreadful against the Nationals. Lopez has a 6.61 versus Washington. That ERA climbs to 8.10 in four starts at Washington. Veteran Jon Lester is set to make his season debut for the Nationals.
04-29-21	Dodgers -152 v. Brewers	Top	1-2	Loss	-152	14 h 14 m	Show
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and possibly even Freddy Peralta might give Trevor Bauer a close game. Not Eric Lauer. So this clearly is that rare case of a mid-size favorite having excellent value as I'd have made Bauer and the Dodgers close to a $2.00 favorite. Bauer had an NL-best 1.73 ERA last year. He's rounding into elite form this season with a 2-0 mark and 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 19 innings. Opponents are batting only .138 against Bauer during this span. The Dodgers have a rested bullpen, too, after Clayton Kershaw threw seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 8-0 victory against the Reds on Wednesday. The Brewers are 20th in runs and 24th in batting average. Christian Yelich and Lornzo Cain are out. Bauer has a 2.66 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers with a 32-to-4 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with one of those walks being intentional. Lauer, a lefty, was 0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four appearances, including two starts, for Milwaukee last year. This is his season debut. The Dodgers, who ranked fourth in runs, have won 26 of their last 38 games against a southpaw starter.
04-28-21	Royals -116 v. Pirates		9-6	Win	100	8 h 15 m	Show
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Royals have the best winning percentage in the majors. Kansas City is 14-8 and should get past Pittsburgh in a pitching matchup of lefty Mike Minor versus Mitch Keller. Minor is a respectable five-inning type pitcher and the Pirates are 0-8 in their past eight interleague games when going against a southpaw starter. Keller has command and control problems. He's 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in four starts. The Royals have an above average offense and rank No. 2 in steals despite not having Adalberto Mondesi all season.
04-27-21	Phillies -106 v. Cardinals		2-5	Loss	-106	12 h 22 m	Show
It's time to talk up Zach Eflin. Based on his early season performance, he's now in the argument for best No. 3 starter. Eflin has a 2.77 ERA with a 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 innings. One of the two walks Elfin gave up was intentional. Philadelphia is 10-2 in Eflin's last 12 starts. The Cardinals rank 22nd in batting average hitting .222. The Phillies, by comparison, have the seventh-highest batting average in the league at .243. St. Louis has been held to two or fewer runs in five of its last eight games. Carlos Martinez will oppose Eflin. Martinez is off his best start in three seasons pitching six innings of one-run baseball against the Nationals five days ago. Martinez, though, still isn't anywhere close to being trusted. He has a 6.00 ERA despite that gem. St. Louis is 0-5 in his last five starts.
04-25-21	Phillies v. Rockies -107		2-12	Win	100	6 h 10 m	Show
It has been 16 games since the Phillies last won two in a row. I don't see Philadelphia ending that streak here. Like many teams, the Phillies have trouble playing at Coors Field where they have lost eight of the past 10 times. Jon Gray is off to a good start for Colorado. Gray knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's 2-0 there this season with a 1.47 ERA in three starts. Chase Anderson hasn't had much luck at Coors where he has a fat 6.66 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies in Denver. Sunday Free Play Rangers plus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.10 (run line) at White Sox The White Sox won the first two games of this series by a combined three runs. I'm expecting another close score with a low total and cold weather with temperatures in the low 40s probably meaning runs will be tough to come by. Texas would be 8-4 in its last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The White Sox would be 4-8 in their past dozen games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The pitching matchup is Kohei Arihara versus Michael Kopech, who is taking the place of Luis Giolito, whose start has been pushed back to Tuesday because of a cut on his middle pitching finger. Arihara has impressed after coming to the Rangers from the Nippon Professional Baseball's Pacific League. He is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He enters this matchup riding a 12 1/3-inning scoreless streak. Kopech is an exciting young strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. But Kopech isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and he's far from being a polished big league pitcher yet. The White Sox won't have the use of their star closer, Liam Hendriks. He'll be rested after throwing a combined 46 pitches the last two days.
04-24-21	Royals v. Tigers +101		2-1	Loss	-100	8 h 22 m	Show
Helped by playing 13 of their first 18 games at home, the Royals lead the AL Central with an 11-7 mark. Kansas City is due for regression. I'm not buying the Royals as a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Matthew Boyd. Singer is a youngster going through growing pains. He's had two of three rough starts this season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Royals are minus their closer Greg Holland. Boyd is back to being the Tigers' ace. He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL with 2-1 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
04-23-21	Phillies v. Rockies -110	Top	4-5	Win	100	17 h 22 m	Show
Like many teams, the Phillies are vulnerable when it comes to the bottom of their rotation. Philadelphia is in a tough spot today having to give Vince Velasquez a spot start at Colorado because normal starter Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocol. Velasquez couldn't cut it as a starter before. He's been in long relief. I don't like his chances here against German Marquez. Marquez has been solid with a 3.57 ERA while pitching into the sixth inning in three of his four starts this season. He knows how to pitch effectively at Coors Field, too. The Rockies' bats are heating up. Colorado has scored 6 or more runs in three of its last four games. Velasquez has a 9.00 ERA. Velasquez has a career 4.91 ERA versus the Rockies in seven appearances. Philadelphia has lost in seven of its last eight games at Coors Field. The Phillies also are playing shorthanded. They are down several arms in their bullpen with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado out and have a middle infield shortage with Jean Segura on the IL with a strained quad and Didi Gregorius questionable due to an elbow injury.
04-20-21	Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox	Top	2-4	Loss	-100	15 h 28 m	Show
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a nice early story for the Red Sox going 2-0 after having missed all of last season due to health issues. Rodriguez's starts have come against the Orioles and Twins. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that has a number of exciting young offensive stars. This is Rodriquez's first home start in two years. I'm not so much going against Rodriguez as I'm taking Hyun Jin Ryu at an underdog price. It's rare when Ryu is an underdog and this shouldn't be one of those times. Since 2018, Ryu has become an upper level pitcher with ERA's of 1.97, 2.32 and 2.69 last season. He's off to a great start this year with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three starts. He has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Ryu trumps Rodriguez and the Blue Jays have enough quality hitters to warrant trust.
04-20-21	Giants v. Phillies -151		10-7	Loss	-151	15 h 24 m	Show
Zach Wheeler is a quality pitcher. Logan Webb is not. So I have no qualms about laying this price with the home Phillies, who have won seven of their 10 games in Philadelphia this season. Webb has a career 5.30 ERA and 1.55 ratio. There was a glimpse of hope for him when he pitched well during spring training. But once the real season started Webb reverted back to form. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 ratio. The Giants had pulled him out of their starting rotation until Johnny Cueto was put on IL. Wheeler dominated the Braves in his opening start holding them scoreless for seven innings while giving up just one hit with a 10-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't as sharp in his next two starts against the Braves again and the Mets, but he wasn't terrible giving up three earned runs on each occasion. Now Wheeler steps down in class. The Giants rank 29th in runs and batting average.
04-18-21	Indians -151 v. Reds		6-3	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Shane Bieber. Any other questions why I like the Indians? If Jacob deGrom isn't the best pitcher in baseball, Bieber could be. The Indians are turning to Bieber to prevent getting swept by the Reds. Bieber has a 2.11 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Reds are due for serious offensive regression ranking first in the majors in runs and homers. Their offense is good, but not nearly this good. Wade Miley is set to oppose Bieber. He's also due for regression - heavy regression having thrown 11 scoreless innings to begin the season. Miley has never opened with three victories in a row during his 10 years in the majors. He has a 4.60 ERA in seven career starts against the Indians, with the last one being in 2019. I don't like the Indians' offense. But they should be able to cobble together a few runs against Miley, which is all Bieber and a strong bullpen backend would need.
04-17-21	Astros -130 v. Mariners		1-0	Win	100	15 h 14 m	Show
Minus starters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are at a bargain price against the Mariners because of those absences in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus Chris Flexen. Greinke isn't the dominant force of years past, but he's a solid "B" tier pitcher. I consider Flexen to be an "F" tier pitcher. He gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Sunday. Flexen sat out last season. He had a 6.59 ERA with the Mets in 2019 and a 12.79 ERA in limited innings with the Mets in 2018. The Astros rank in the top-five in numerous key offensive categories. They have the depth to overcome the loss of Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez especially facing such a weak starter and a bad Mariners bullpen that carries a high fatigue rating. This is Seattle's fifth game in four days. The Mariners just got into Seattle on Friday after sweeping a doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday and then nipped the Astros in a come-from-behind victory on Friday. The Astros were idle this past Thursday so their bullpen is relatively fresh. Despite Friday's defeat, the Astros still have beaten the Mariners in 40 of the past 55 games.
04-17-21	Rays -104 v. Yankees		6-3	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
Unless they're playing the Orioles, the Yankees just aren't that good. Unfortunately for the Yankees they're not going against the Orioles today but the Rays. Tampa Bay has beaten New York in 13 of its last 16 regular-season games, including 8-2 on Friday. I expect the Rays' dominance in this series to continue today since they are pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's in the argument for best pitcher in the American League with a 0.46 ERA. He has a lifetime 1.54 ERA at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are not playing well, losers of of six of their last eight games. They've allowed 20 runs in their last three games and haven't scored more than four runs during their last four games. New York is starting Jordan Montgomery. The Rays just saw him six days ago and got to him for four runs in five innings. Montgomery has a 5.54 ERA lifetime against Tampa Bay in seven starts.
04-16-21	Astros -109 v. Mariners		5-6	Loss	-109	17 h 30 m	Show
Normally the Astros would be priced much higher against the Mariners and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. But the Astros have three starters on the injured list - Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez. I still like Houston, though, to beat Seattle and the price is right to get involved. The Astros have a lot of depth to offset three starters being sidelined. They rank in the top-four in the major offensive categories. Kikuchi is pitching better so far this season than in his two previous seasons, but he has a terrible history versus Houston with a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings spanning five career starts. The Astros have won 69 percent of their past 75 road games against a lefty starter. The situation also shapes up nicely for the Astros. The Mariners had to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast after sweeping a road doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday. Seattle has played four games during the last three days. Unlike the Mariners, the Astros will have a fresh bullpen in support of starter Jose Urquidy. Houston was idle on Thursday. The Astros are 42-11 the last 53 times following an off day. Houston also has dominated the Mariners winning 40 of the past 54 games.
04-10-21	Angels v. Blue Jays -120		1-15	Win	100	16 h 21 m	Show
Face it. Jose Quintana is a below average starter. Constant ERA's in the high 4.00's show that. The White Sox and Cubs have moved on from him and probably the Angels will, too. Quintana wasn't good in his Angels debut giving up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Astros this past Monday. I much prefer Steven Matz, who was quite the opposite of Quintana in his season debut. Matz allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rangers this past Monday, carrying over from his fine spring performances. The Angels took advantage of Toronto's lack of pitching depth to beat the Blue Jays, 7-1, on Friday. The Angels, though, are a weak road club, losers of 40 of the past 59 away contests.
04-10-21	Red Sox v. Orioles +121		6-4	Loss	-100	14 h 48 m	Show
It's deja vu all over again with this pitching matchup. Garrett Richards and lefty Bruce Zimmermann squared off six days ago in Boston and the Orioles smashed the Red Sox, 11-3. Now the same two pitchers go at it in Baltimore. The Red Sox don't appear any better than the Orioles this season and Richards hasn't shown anything. So give me the home 'dog. Richards couldn't last three innings against the Orioles this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits in two-plus innings. The same command issues that plagued him during spring training weren't resolved. Zimmermann, on the other hand, threw six solid innings against the Red Sox giving up three runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 games facing a lefty starter, including 1-2 this season. The Orioles hold a bullpen edge, too, with Cesar Valdez emerging as an early-season star with two saves and a win. Valdez has five strikeouts and one walk in 4 1/3 innings.
04-07-21	Diamondbacks v. Rockies -109	Top	0-8	Win	100	15 h 15 m	Show
Mad-Bum is turning into just Bum. OK, that is being too hard on Madison Bumgarner. He's not a bum, but he's certainly also not the pitcher he was during his prime with the Giants when he was throwing 94 mph. Bumgarner gets the start here at Coors Field, the best hitting park in the majors. The price is right to fade him especially with the Diamondbacks' bullpen in a state of flux with closer Joakim Soria out with a calf injury. Bumgarner went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA last year, permitting an astonishing 66 baserunners in only 41 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks signed him to a huge contract hoping his fastball would return and his command would improve. So far that hasn't happened. His velocity still is down and he hasn't regained his command. That was evident again in Bumgarner's first start when he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in four innings against the Padres opening day. That game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, too. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela didn't pitch well either in his first start this season. He was tagged for seven on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings by the Dodgers, who could have the best offense in baseball. I have more confidence in Senzatela bouncing back than Bumgarner. Senzatela turned a corner last season going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA. I like the Rockies' lineup better than the Diamondbacks, especially with Arizona missing injured shortstop Nick Ahmed and outfielder Kole Calhoun.
04-04-21	Indians -124 v. Tigers		9-3	Win	100	9 h 8 m	Show
Cleveland's Aaron Civale is one of those below-the-radar pitchers that I am high on this season. I believe Civale will be one of the more improved pitchers this season. Civale hasn't had trouble with the Tigers in the past going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in four career starts with two of those wins occurring at Comerica Park. The Tigers are going with Tarik Skubal. He could be good in a couple of years, but right now Skubal is learning his craft. He was 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA as a rookie last season.
04-04-21	Braves -115 v. Phillies		1-2	Loss	-115	9 h 4 m	Show
After going against Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Braves step down in pitching class. The Braves draw Zach Eflin as they try to prevent the Phillies from achieving a three-game sweep. Eflin has yet to prove himself special. Braves starter Ian Anderson has. Anderson gave a glimpse into his high ceiling during his rookie season last year going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. The Phillies have never faced him.
04-03-21	Giants -114 v. Mariners		0-4	Loss	-114	13 h 36 m	Show
There wasn't a better pitching during spring training than San Francisco's Logan Webb, who went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in five starts. Webb's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 22-to-2. So I'll take a shot with Webb and the superior team against the lowly Mariners, who will be going with Chris Flexen, who was pitching in South Korea last season. Sure spring training statistics can't be trusted. But still I'd rather go with a hot spring training pitcher than Flexen, who has never proven himself in the majors and has a horrendous bullpen behind him. Already the Mariners' relief staff has given up five runs (four earned) during seven innings.
04-03-21	White Sox -119 v. Angels		3-5	Loss	-119	13 h 33 m	Show
The White Sox are an emerging team with plenty of talent even minus highly-promising Eloy Jimenez. They are going with veteran Lance Lynn on the mound against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been one of the worst starters in the majors during the last three years going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. Those were with Baltimore. The Angels are hoping Cobb can emulate Dylan Bundy's success. Bundy, too, was with the Orioles before coming to the Angels and having much better results. I don't believe that's going to happen. Certainly not against the White Sox where Cobb's lifetime ERA is 13.89 in three starts versus Chicago. Lynn is much the better pitcher and he has a good history against the Angels. Lynn was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season. I much prefer the White Sox's bullpen over the Angels' relievers, too. The Angels received just three innings from Andrew Heaney on Friday so their bullpen already is getting stretched out.
04-02-21	Giants +116 v. Mariners	Top	6-3	Win	116	14 h 40 m	Show
No way am I buying Yusei Kikuchi as a favorite. The left-handed Kikuchi has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors during his two-year stint compiling a 5.46 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 2019 and a 5.17 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP last season. San Francisco just faced a lefty starter on Thursday and scored five earned runs in six innings off Marco Gonzales, a much better pitcher than Kikuchi. Seattle has one of the worst bullpens in the majors, too. Giants starter Johnny Cueto isn't the star he was with the Reds, but he's still solid. I consider him the Giants' best starter. Cueto has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against Seattle in three starts. San Francisco's bullpen is better than it showed in its 8-7 extra inning loss to the Mariners on Thursday. The Mariners remain without perhaps their most talented player as outfielder Kyle Lewis has a knee injury.
10-27-20	Rays +130 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	17 h 15 m	Show
The Rays have met adversity several times in the postseason. I expect them to live again and force Game 7 of the World Series. I'll take a plus price with Blake Snell against Tony Gonsolin. Snell should give the Rays five solid innings. I can't say that about Gonsolin, who hasn't pitched as well in the playoffs as he did during the regular season. Gonsolin has pitched 7 2/3 innings in the postseason giving up seven walks and three homers. I also trust the Rays' bullpen more than the Dodgers' relievers. Closer Kenley Jansen certainly can't be trusted anymore. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is saving Walker Buehler in case there's a Game 7. He said Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias will not pitch in this game. Those are the three best Dodgers pitchers.
10-21-20	Rays v. Dodgers -145	Top	6-4	Loss	-145	17 h 22 m	Show
Momentum is crucial in the baseball playoffs. The Dodgers have it. The Rays don't. LA has won four in a row after being on the brink of elimination from the Braves. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games. The Rays haven't played well since going up 3-0 on the Astros in the ALCS. It doesn't hurt the Dodgers' chances that they are the superior team with both great hitting and pitching. The Dodgers led the Majors averaging 5.8 runs per game. They are averaging 5.5 runs in their last four games. Cody Bellinger has come alive smacking three homers during the last three games. The Rays don't have the offense to match LA's. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.1 runs in its last 10 games. The Rays are going with lefty Blake Snell, who has allowed seven runs in his last 14 postseason innings spread across three starts. He hasn't completed six innings during any of his playoff starts this season. This isn't the vintage Snell of three seasons ago. The Dodgers are 17-6 versus lefties this year, including 4-1 during the postseason. Tampa Bay is going up against Dodgers pitching that has allowed three or fewer runs in four straight games. The Rays are going to be looking at Tony Gonsolin and probably Julio Urias in this game. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in the regular season with a 0.84 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings. Urias has a 0.56 ERA and 4-0 record in 16 playoff innings this season spread across four appearances. The Dodgers have won 77 percent of the time they've been favored during the past 56 instances.
10-17-20	Astros v. Rays -116		2-4	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
Hated or not, the Astros have done a great job winning three in a row to force a Game 7 in this ALCS. But I want the Rays going for me in this winner-take-all matchup. Tampa Bay has the much deeper bullpen, is the better fielding team and Kevin Cash is a superior manager to Dusty Baker. I also prefer Charlie Morton over Lance McCullers in the starting pitching matchup. Morton has given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in the postseason this year. He beat the Astros in Game 2 firing five scoreless innings. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 playoff appearances that includes 10 starts. McCullers is a feast-or-famine type pitcher. He's allowed five homers during his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The last four innings could be taken over by the bullpens. The Rays hold a big edge there especially with Houston's top bullpen guys dealing with fatigue issues.
10-16-20	Astros v. Rays -130	Top	7-4	Loss	-130	15 h 14 m	Show
The Astros have some momentum winning two in a row to keep their season alive down 3-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS. Only twice all season has Tampa Bay lost more than two in a row. I don't see the Rays losing a third consecutive game. Tampa Bay has the more established starting pitcher, superior bullpen and better manager. Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young Award three seasons ago. He's been strong this season and during the playoffs. Snell defeated Houston five days ago holding the Astros to one run in five innings. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who has posted solid numbers but has control issues and gives up the long ball. Valdez has issued seven walks in his 18 innings of postseason work and has surrendered three homers during his last two starts.
10-13-20	Rays v. Astros +101	Top	5-2	Loss	-100	17 h 30 m	Show
I have nothing but admiration for Rays manager Kevin Cash. He's an out-of-the-box thinker and one of the best managers in baseball. He has the Rays on the verge of going to the World Series. Tampa Bay leads Houston 2-0 in the American League Championship Series. Now, though, is the time to step in with the Astros, who are 8-1 the last nine times they've been a playoff underdog. Tampa Bay has outscored Houston by just three runs in the two games. The Rays only have 10 hits in the series. The Astros have been dogged by leaving 21 men on base during these two games, victimized by outstanding and clutch Tampa Bay fielding plays and suffering bad luck and misfortune with some of their hard hit balls. Not that I feel sorry for the cheating Astros. But I do think they are due for a victory here. The starting pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA in five regular-season starts. This will be his third postseason start. The Rays have never faced him giving Urquidy the element of surprise. Yarbrough has never started a playoff game. The Astros rank in the top five against lefthanded pitching in batting average and a number of metric categories, including slugging percentage and OPS.
10-08-20	Braves v. Marlins +130		7-0	Loss	-100	12 h 28 m	Show
The Braves have outclassed the Marlins during the first two games of this playoff series. But now the Marlins are an enticing underdog facing elimination in a battle of young starting pitchers. I prefer Sixto Sanchez against Atlanta's Kyle Wright. These two pitchers went up against each other on Sept. 8. It was no contest: Miami won, 8-0. That game was in Atlanta. This matchup is at neutral site Houston. Sanchez displayed his vast potential during his last start. That came six days ago against the Cubs in the postseason. Sanchez held the Cubs scoreless in five innings posting six strikeouts. Miami won that game, 2-0. Wright made eight regular-season starts going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. Career-wise against Miami in three starts, Wright is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA.
10-06-20	Yankees v. Rays -119		5-7	Win	100	15 h 37 m	Show
I see the Rays bouncing back from their Game 1 loss to the Yankees on Monday. The Rays are 8-3 versus the Yankees this season and hold a starting pitching edge in a matchup of Tyler Glasnow versus 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia. Glasnow has lived up to his high ceiling when he has been healthy, which he is now. Tampa Bay has won during each of Glasnow's last nine starts this year. Garcia had a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings this season. I'd rather take my chances with Glasnow and lay a little higher juice.
10-05-20	Yankees v. Rays +137		9-3	Loss	-100	13 h 32 m	Show
I don't get the Rays being an underdog especially in this high of a range. Tampa Bay won the AL East Division title. The Rays achieved this in part by defeating the Yankees in eight of 10 meetings. Yeah, I get righthander Gerrit Cole is going for New York. But Cole struggled against the Rays this season posting a 4.96 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, while surrendering five homers. The Rays are 31-12 against righty starters. Tampa Bay also has won 10 of the last 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Yankees go against lefty Blake Snell, the former Cy Young Award winner who was solid this season with a 3.24 ERA. Snell gave up three runs on four hits to the Yankees this season in eight innings. Snell was sharp in his last start this past Tuesday holding the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 2/3 innings allowing only one hit and striking out nine. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters. They ranked 25th in batting average against southpaws. Note that the game is being played at San Diego's Petco Park. This neutral site favors the Rays because of the spacious dimensions and being the premier pitcher's park. The Yankees are the more powerful team so they're hurt more by the ballpark configurations.
10-02-20	Cardinals +105 v. Padres		0-4	Loss	-100	8 h 55 m	Show
I'll take Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty against a motley crew of overworked Padres pitchers. The Padres' bullpen is extremely overworked after their first two game starters, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies, managed just a combined 4 1/3 innings. San Diego is in this jam because their two best starters, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, are injured. Flaherty didn't have the dominant season he had last year, but he's still darn good and has a strong history versus the Padres with a 1.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts. The Padres were averaging just 3.8 runs during their last 13 games until scoring 11 runs yesterday.
10-01-20	Reds +121 v. Braves		0-5	Loss	-100	9 h 9 m	Show
The Reds had the better starting pitcher going in Game 1 of this playoff series yesterday with Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati should have won, but lost 1-0 in 13 innings. The Reds outhit the Braves, 11-6, with three of Atlanta's hits coming in the 13th inning. Cincinnati stranded 13 baserunners going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. It was a highly frustrating loss not just for the underdog Reds, but anyone who had them on Wednesday me included. Now we have a similar situation. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going and once again are underdogs. Those two factors put me right back on Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has emerged as one of the National League's better pitchers during the last two years making the All-Star team last season. Castillo held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. Castillo is more proven than Ian Anderson, the Braves' highly promising rookie starter. This is just Anderson's seventh big league start. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Reds still have won 11 of their last 15 games.
09-30-20	White Sox v. A's -120	Top	3-5	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
The road White Sox were a sharp play against the A's in Tuesday's opening series game. But the dynamics are different for this Game 2 in a pitching matchup of lefty Dallas Keuchel versus Chris Bassitt. This isn't a fade on Keuchel, who has pitched well again this season. The A's, though, are 11-3 against lefties this season and Bassitt has been highly underrated. He's given up just one run during his last four starts spanning 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt has been particularly strong at home with a 0.72 ERA in six starts at Oakland Coliseum this season. The White Sox have lost the last seven times they've gone against a righty starter. Chicago also has lost the past six times it has been an underdog.
09-30-20	Reds +117 v. Braves		0-1	Loss	-100	11 h 36 m	Show
Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers.
09-25-20	Reds v. Twins -142	Top	7-2	Loss	-142	12 h 53 m	Show
The Twins, behind Jose Berrios, should take care of business at home against the Reds. Minnesota is 23-5 (82 percent) at home. That's the best home mark in baseball. The Reds have a losing road record. Berrios has a history of pitching his best at Target Field. He has a 2.67 ERA there this season holding batters to a .168 batting average. Berrios is in outstanding form, too, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts this month. Cincinnati has had a down year from many of its hitters. The Reds rank 30th in batting average and 28th in runs scored. The Reds also don't win when Tyler Mahle pitches. Mahle has a career Reds record of 13-25. His road ERA is 4.97 this season and he can be homer-prone. The Twins set a record for most homers last season and rank fifth in home runs this year. Minnesota won't lack incentive either being just one-half game ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central.
09-24-20	Orioles +136 v. Red Sox		13-1	Win	136	14 h 24 m	Show
The Red Sox have had some great years. This isn't one of them. Boston has a worse record than Baltimore. So I'm not buying the Red Sox being this large of a favorite against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus lefty Martin Perez. Both are lower-tier rotation type starters. Cobb was solid in his last outing giving up two runs on four hits in six innings this past Friday against the Rays. He's been solid, too, in two starts versus Boston this season giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings. Cobb's 4.76 season ERA is lower than Perez's lifetime ERA against the Orioles. Note, too, that the Orioles are a .500 team when going against a southpaw starter.
09-22-20	Rays -122 v. Mets	Top	2-5	Loss	-122	20 h 59 m	Show
The Mets have to be way down after their playoff chances were dealt a big blow with a 2-1 home loss to the Rays on Monday. The Mets had Jacob deGrom going in that game while the Rays went with an opener, a strategy their manager, Kevin Cash, came up with a couple of years ago and that has been widely copied. The Mets were 12-2 in deGrom's previous 14 starts. Now the Mets have to deal with lefty Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Mets are 6-14 versus lefty starters this season. They have scored a combined three runs in three of their last four games. Snell is having a strong September with a 2.87 ERA. He's given up one run during his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Snell also is 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is 18-10 on the road. The Mets are 12-16 at home. The Mets are slated to start Seth Lugo, who is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Lugo is off a terrible performance against the Phillies where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in 1 1/2 innings this past Thursday.
09-18-20	Twins v. Cubs -125		0-1	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16. The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill. Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts. Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws.
09-17-20	Mets v. Phillies -121		10-6	Loss	-121	14 h 46 m	Show
I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is.
09-16-20	Royals -125 v. Tigers		4-0	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
The Royals had won six in a row until losing to the Tigers on Tuesday. The price certainly is reasonable to back the Royals in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Tarik Skubal. Singer is coming off his best start shutting out the Indians on one hit in eight innings with eight strikeouts this past Thursday. Singer threw a season-high 119 pitches in that game, but is pitching on five full day's rest. Singer draws a Tigers lineup minus injured second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who was leading the team in homers. Skubal has been terrible this season with a 7.27 ERA.
09-15-20	Mets v. Phillies +116		1-4	Win	116	13 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies are banged-up with multiple injuries. But I'm attracted to them as a home 'dog in a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello versus Jake Arrieta. I see the veteran Arrieta stepping up in the wake of injuries to starting pitchers Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard. Arrieta has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts. He holds a lifetime 3.17 ERA in 15 starts versus the Mets. Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 12 home games. It's an insult to Cy Young that Porcello once won that award. He may be the worst Cy Young Award winner of all-time. Porcello is nothing more than an innings-eater and not a very good one at that. He's been a major disappointment for the sucker Mets with a 1-4 record and 6.07 ERA. This is the Phillies' third look at Porcello this season. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. The Mets have lost seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Wrong team favored here.
09-12-20	Angels v. Rockies -125		5-2	Loss	-125	10 h 48 m	Show
The Angels are a fade away from home with a 6-16 road mark. Going back to last season, the Angels have lost 37 of their last 51 road contests. Now the Angels draw Kyle Freeland, an experienced Coors Park pitcher with a 2.80 ERA when pitching at night. The Angels are going with Jamie Barria, who has much to prove after going 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA last year.
09-07-20	Diamondbacks -105 v. Giants		2-4	Loss	-105	12 h 13 m	Show
The only thing that can get me on the Diamondbacks these days is a pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Kevin Gausman. Gallen is great. Gausman is terrible. So at this price, I'm holding my nose and taking the Diamondbacks. Gallen is looking to extend his major league record of allowing three or fewer runs to begin a career to 24. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season. Gallen has been at his finest, too, during his last four starts with a 1.00 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. Gausman is having another typical Gausman year with a 4.43 ERA.
09-07-20	Phillies -110 v. Mets		9-8	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
Zack Wheeler gets up for the Mets more than any other team. Wheeler was a mainstay in the Mets' rotation the previous two seasons, but was highly disappointed when the Mets let him walk in free agency without ever making an offer. Wheeler landed with the Phillies and has thrived going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA. He beat the Mets in mid-August, 6-2, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who has yet to make his mark. Philadelphia has won the past seven times it was favored.
09-06-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants -129		2-4	Win	100	14 h 16 m	Show
You can see the white flag all the way from Arizona. The Diamondbacks are complete fade material. They are in rebuild mode and have lost 15 of their last 17 games. The price is right to back the much-better hitting Giants and Johnny Cueto, who is 11-3 lifetime with a 3.03 ERA in 17 career starts versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. Arizona is pitching Alex Young. He's a converted reliever who could be heading back to the bullpen after this start. He's 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA.
09-04-20	Marlins v. Rays -125		4-5	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
This price is within reason to get involved with the Rays. Miami has been a surprising 16-16 this season, but the Rays are an elite team especially at home. The Rays are 14 games above .500 this season. They have won 71 percent of their past 51 home games going back to last year. Tropicana Park is an unusual venue for opposing teams. One reason for this is artificial turf. The Marlins have lost 18 of the last 26 times they've played on astroturf. Miami starter righty Pablo Lopez has been surprisingly good this season with a 2.10 ERA. The Rays just saw him six days ago, winning that game, 4-0. The Rays are 19-7 versus righty starters this season. Tampa Bay is starting southpaw Josh Fleming. He also has been surprisingly good carrying a 1.74 ERA through his first two big league starts. He pitched against the Marlins last Saturday and held them scoreless on three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Miami is 3-8 versus lefty starters on the year. The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This includes a 3-game road sweep of the Marlins. Tampa Bay outscored Miami, 18-7, in that series.
09-03-20	White Sox -135 v. Royals		11-6	Win	100	15 h 42 m	Show
The White Sox are 22-15. The Royals are 14-23. So these teams are playing out to their projections. The White Sox, with a boatload of young talent, were expected to make a major step while the Royals remain dregs. A big part of Chicago's success is its 11-0 record against lefthanded starters. The Royals are pitching lefty Danny Duffy. The White Sox are batting .303 versus southpaws, second-highest in the league. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.571) and highest OPS (.948) against lefties. Chicago just saw Duffy six days ago. The White Sox got to him for four runs (three earned) on seven hits, including two homers, in 5 2/3 innings. Duffy has a 5.60 career ERA versus the White Sox when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City draws highly-promising Dylan Cease, who displayed his vast potential finishing August by going 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 26 strikeouts in six starts. Cease may not have to deal with the Royals' most feared slugger as Jorge Soler left yesterday's game with an oblique irritation.
09-02-20	Nationals -114 v. Phillies	Top	0-3	Loss	-114	12 h 7 m	Show
This is a low price to get an elite starter versus a No. 3 type pitcher with Max Scherzer facing Zach Wheeler. Scherzer may be past his prime, but he's still a dominant Tier 1 pitcher. He has a 3.86 ERA after a bad stretch. The buy sign is back on him, though, after his last performance. Scherzer gave up one run on six hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in six innings against the Red Sox this past Friday. Scherzer said he tweaked his mechanics and that made a difference. Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies. This includes a 5-0 mark with a 2.40 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. This isn't a huge fade on Wheeler, who has pitched well this season. He's just not in the class of Scherzer and the Phillies have a worse bullpen than the Nationals. Wheeler also has a bad history versus the Nationals with a 5-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 18 starts.
08-30-20	Nationals +101 v. Red Sox		5-9	Loss	-100	9 h 40 m	Show
Austin Voth is off to a slow start after showing promise last year. He has a 6.65 ERA. Voth is better than he has shown. Voth, though, still is better than Red Sox starter Zack Godley, who has been Godley awful. He's 0-3 with a 7.29 ERA. The Nationals are familiar with Godley having faced him when he pitched for the Diamondbacks. Godley has a 5.53 career ERA versus the Nationals in 40 2/3 innings. Godley doesn't go deep into games either. That's going to be a real problem. The Red Sox have a terrible bullpen and their best relievers have fatigue issues.
08-29-20	Giants v. Diamondbacks -135		5-2	Loss	-135	15 h 59 m	Show
Arizona has been underachieving and Luke Weaver is on the comeback trail. But I see a buy sign on both of them today. The Diamondbacks halted an eight-game losing streak beating the Giants, 7-4, on Friday. That should stop the Diamondbacks from pressing and raise their confidence level. Weaver was on track to become one of the better young pitchers in baseball before an injury derailed him. But he's looked good in his last two starts posting a 2.53 ERA. Journeyman righthander Trevor Cahill goes for San Francisco. Cahill is pitching well above his norm with a 1.64 ERA after three starts. The Diamondbacks hit righties much better than lefties and Cahill is due for major regression. If Cahill was anywhere close to being this good, he wouldn't be on his eighth big league team. The Giants have lost six of the past seven times following a loss. The Diamondbacks usually do the job as home chalk winning 16 of the last 21 times in that role.
08-26-20	Cubs -138 v. Tigers		6-7	Loss	-138	11 h 47 m	Show
Jon Lester was bit by the long ball bug in his last two starts surrendering a combined six homers to the White Sox and Brewers in his last two starts. I see Lester getting his act together facing the woeful Tigers while also being helped by the spacious dimensions of Comerica Park. Lester opened the season giving up just two runs during his first three starts. Lester is a medium-sized favorite because he's facing Michael Fulmer and a Detroit team that has lost 62 of its last 80 home games. The Tigers are letting Fulmer take his lumps as he recovers from Tommy John surgery having missed all of last season. Fulmer has given up 18 hits and 14 runs in 11 1/3 innings. That translates into a 9.53 ERA. He has yet to pitch more than three innings in a game this season.
08-24-20	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156		3-2	Loss	-156	15 h 21 m	Show
The Rockies have fallen back to earth and are a fade on the road especially at Arizona. Colorado has lost 37 of its last 51 away games. The Rockies are 1-5 in their past six games at Chase Field. Arizona is going with Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.59 ERA. He's pitched well in four of his five starts. Colorado is pitching righthander Ryan Castellani, who just got battered by the Astros in his last start giving up five earned runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 versus southpaw starters, but 13-9 when facing righthanders. Arizona also is 15-3 the past 18 times as a home favorite.

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