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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-16-22	Cubs v. Rockies -121		6-9	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
The price is cheap enough to back the Rockies at home against a bad Cubs team. Colorado is pitching Antonio Senzatela. The righty knows how to pitch in high altitude going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last season. The Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 games versus righty starters. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Cubs. They are going to start Mark Leiter, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2018. I'm not expecting much from Leiter and a host of Cubs relievers facing a Rockies lineup that always hits much better when playing in Coors Field.
04-15-22	Cubs v. Rockies -113		5-6	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
I'm looking for the Rockies to bounce back at home after losing the series opener to the Cubs. Colorado is going with its best pitcher, German Marquez. He looked great in his first start this season, holding the powerful Dodgers to one run on three hits in seven innings pitching in Coors Field. Marquez, an All-Star last season, is 27-18 lifetime at Coors with a 4.67 ERA. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, too, but I'm willing to lay this short price to get Marquez and Colorado at home. The Rockies are 27-11 the past 38 times they've been favored while the Cubs are 19-49 the last 68 times they've been a 'dog.
04-14-22	Cubs v. Rockies -118	Top	5-2	Loss	-118	19 h 57 m	Show
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
04-13-22	Mets +106 v. Phillies		9-6	Win	106	13 h 50 m	Show
Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games. So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer. I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA. Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors.
04-12-22	Mariners +111 v. White Sox		2-3	Loss	-100	4 h 29 m	Show
There will be times to play on the White Sox. This isn't one of them. Not in a pitching matchup of Matt Brash versus Vince Velasquez. Brash is the Mariners' top pitching prospect. He struck out 12 during 9 1/3 innings in spring training. He draws a White Sox lineup that is missing several key bats, including Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock. But this handicap also is a fade on Velasquez, who I now consider a lower-end starter. Velasquez was 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games with the Phillies and Padres last season proving unreliable in 21 starts. The Mariners have a tremendous knack for winning close games. They are 7-2 the past nine times as underdogs and 21-8 in their last 29 road games.
04-11-22	Padres v. Giants -139	Top	4-2	Loss	-139	21 h 42 m	Show
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
04-11-22	Brewers -139 v. Orioles		0-2	Loss	-139	16 h 34 m	Show
Same old Orioles. Baltimore is 0-3 to begin this season getting swept by the Rays by a combined margin of 28-9. The Orioles struck out 37 times in their 3-game series against the Rays and were 2-for-24 with runners in scoring position. The Rays are an excellent team. So are the Brewers. Milwaukee got its confidence up nipping the Cubs, 5-4, Sunday after losing the first two games of the series. The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser versus Bruce Zimmermann. Houser is one of the more underrated backend starters. He went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last season. Houser had a 2.50 ERA in day games last season. He's backed by a deep and talented bullpen, one of the best in baseball. Zimmermann had a 5.04 ERA last season. That hideous ERA was even worse in day action last season at 6.23 ERA and was 5.33 in April. Baltimore remains a terrible home team at 28-58 during its past 86 home contests.
04-10-22	Astros -105 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	15 h 25 m	Show
The Astros are the stronger team with better depth and they should have their main bats in after resting several key players on Saturday night. Angels starter lefty Jose Suarez has a career ERA of 5.70. The Astros are 7-3 the past 10 times going against a southpaw starter. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is solid. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and had a 0.99 WHIP last season. The Angels are just 3-12 in their last 15 home games.
04-10-22	Marlins v. Giants -120	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA.
04-10-22	Indians -102 v. Royals		17-3	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
The Guardians have held the Royals to four runs during the first two games of this series. Yet Cleveland is 0-2. The Royals are far from a power. So they shouldn't be favored when Cleveland has a starting pitched edge, which they do here. I'll take righty Cal Quantrill against Kris Bubic. Quantrill was 8-3 with a 2.89 and 1.18 WHIP last year. Bubic was 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Royals were 48-64 against right-handed starters last season.
04-09-22	White Sox -128 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
The White Sox blew Friday's opener against the Tigers. But they are much the superior team. I expect them to bounce back today with Dylan Crease. Crease has dominated the Tigers going 11-0 with a 1.82 ERA against them. Casey Mize goes for Detroit. He's talented, but hasn't been a big innings pitcher. That puts the Tigers' vulnerable bullpen into play.
04-08-22	White Sox -129 v. Tigers		4-5	Loss	-129	12 h 13 m	Show
The price is low enough to get involved with the White Sox especially facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The White Sox crush lefties with a lineup that leans heavily on right-handed batters. The White Sox have won 40 of their last 58 games when going against a southpaw starter. Rodriguez is on the downside of his career. He had a 4.74 ERA last season. The Tigers should be improved, but the White Sox are easily the class of the AL Central Division. Chicago is pitching its ace, Lucas Giolito.
04-07-22	Mets v. Nationals +120	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	18 h 14 m	Show
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz.
10-31-21	Astros -111 v. Braves	Top	9-5	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
10-27-21	Braves +107 v. Astros		2-7	Loss	-100	10 h 48 m	Show
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since.
10-20-21	Astros +112 v. Red Sox	Top	9-1	Win	112	8 h 51 m	Show
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
10-16-21	Dodgers v. Braves +122		2-3	Win	122	9 h 2 m	Show
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games.
10-08-21	Red Sox v. Rays -135		14-6	Loss	-135	8 h 32 m	Show
Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out.
10-02-21	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134		2-11	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Zac Gallen. He was one of the most promising pitchers in baseball until injuries derailed him. But he's back now and looking great. Just ask the powerful Dodgers. Gallen held LA to one run on three hits in six innings last Saturday in a 7-2 victory. Gallen also was sharp recently against Colorado. He shut the Rockies out on three hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and only one walk on Aug. 21. The Diamondbacks are motivated not to finish with the worst record in team history. They are furious about blowing a huge lead to the Rockies on Friday. Colorado is a terrible road team with a 26-52 away mark.
10-02-21	Mets +113 v. Braves		5-6	Loss	-100	9 h 1 m	Show
The Braves rested several regulars in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Mets and they are going to sit out a number of key starters again today. The Braves have their playoff ticket punched so they don't care about this game. It's a bullpen game for Atlanta with Jesse Chavez being the nominal starter. A bunch of young pitchers for Atlanta could see action here. The Mets are going with veteran Carlos Carrasco. New York's best everyday players should be in the lineup with their careers on the line as the Mets decide the future course of their team.
10-02-21	Reds -154 v. Pirates		6-8	Loss	-154	8 h 6 m	Show
The Pirates embarrassed the Reds on Friday. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati today. It's a meaningless game, but I do believe prideful Tyler Mahle will dominate the Pirates. He's facing a bad pitcher in Max Kranick. Mahle has had a career year with 13 victories, 12 quality starts and 204 strikeouts. He has been at his finest away from hitter Great American Ball Park where he's 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA. The Pirates rank 30th in homers and RBI's. Kranick is a horrible pitcher on a horrible team. He's 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
10-01-21	Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks		9-7	Win	100	11 h 57 m	Show
Arizona owns the worst record in baseball at 50-109. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 home games. So anytime I can lay a short price against them, especially with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look to do that. Veteran Jon Gray goes for Colorado. Gray has failed to live up to No. 1 starter status with Colorado, but he's decent given that he has a 4.28 ERA and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Rookie Humberto Castellanos also has a 4.28 ERA. He has made only six big league starts. The Rockies have lost 24 fewer games than the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 6-24 in its last 30 games. Colorado is on a two-game win streak. The Rockies are 26-10 the past 36 times when favored.
10-01-21	Indians -116 v. Rangers		9-6	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
Sometimes you can find good spots and value in meaningless games. That's what we have in this matchup. Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA. Bad numbers. However, Morgan is coming off two well-pitched games against strong offenses. Morgan held the Yankees and White Sox to a combined one run and seven hits in 12 innings during his past two starts. Now Morgan steps way down in class to face the Rangers. Texas is tied with Pittsburgh for the third-worst record in baseball at 59-100. The Rangers are pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA. He's never gone more than four innings. The Indians usually do the job when favored, winning 16 of the last 22 times in that role.
09-30-21	Brewers +101 v. Cardinals		3-4	Loss	-100	13 h 34 m	Show
The Brewers snapped the Cardinals' 17-game win streak Wednesday night winning, 4-0. Mission accomplished, though, for the Cardinals. They have earned a wild-card berth. This is a quick turnaround being an early start. The Cardinals have to be a bit deflated with their win streak - the longest in the majors in five years - now history. The pitching matchup is southpaw Brett Anderson, who has a 4.30 ERA, versus lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 5.86 ERA. The prideful veteran Anderson won't lack motivation after the Cardinals knocked him out in the second inning just eight days ago. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times going against a lefty starter. Milwaukee has been a top road club, too, winning 38 of its last 54 away contests. The Cardinals still could be missing star catcher Yadier Molina. He's been out the last two games due to shoulder stiffness.
09-28-21	Nationals v. Rockies -133	Top	1-3	Win	100	19 h 51 m	Show
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
09-28-21	Rays v. Astros -130		3-4	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
I rarely go against the Rays. I have tremendous respect for them and their manager, Kevin Cash. However, I have no respect for Michael Wacha. I think he's terrible. So I'm going to fade Wacha and his 3-5 record and 5.49 ERA and back the Astros knowing there are favorable angles backing Houston. Such as: Houston is 54-18 (75 percent) following a day off. Houston also gets up for the best competition going 11-3 the past 14 times versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Rays have had problems when playing at Houston losing five of the past six times there. The Astros are going with Jose Urquidy, who is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He's superior to Wacha, who has a 6.14 career ERA versus the Astros having made two relief appearances against them. Wacha has a fat 5.82 ERA during his last 12 overall starts.
09-28-21	Phillies v. Braves -114		1-2	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
I have a lot of respect for Zach Wheeler. The righthander has been very good this season. I have far less respect for the Phillies' 34-41 road record. I also respect Charlie Morton, especially in big games such as this one. Morton has come on after a slow beginning with the Braves to post a 2.95 ERA in his last 18 starts. The price is low enough for me to back the home Braves. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Braves also have won the past seven times when facing a righty starter.
09-27-21	White Sox v. Tigers +150		8-7	Loss	-100	11 h 28 m	Show
After 10 consecutive road games, the White Sox were looking forward to a day off Monday and then finishing the regular season at home. That's not going to happen, though. Because of a rainout, the White Sox have to make this stop in Detroit before coming home to play their last five regular season games. The White Sox are the AL Central Division champions. But they are just one game above .500 since the All-Star break. They can't be too excited about this game either. Perhaps the White Sox should be favored. But certainly not by this high of a price in a pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel versus Matt Manning. The 33-year-old Keuchel is 8-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He has his worst strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2012 when he was a rookie. He's faced the Tigers three times this season and has a 6.00 ERA against them. The current Tigers roster is batting .324 against him. Manning is one of the Tigers' prize prospects. The rookie has had his ups and downs with a 4-6 record and 5.73 ERA. However, Manning has been pitching better allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
09-24-21	Mets v. Brewers -130		1-5	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
Neither the Mets nor Brewers are playing well right now. Milwaukee just got swept four games by the Cardinals. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball winning 12 in a row. The Brewers just happened to run into the Cardinals. Now they drop down in class facing the Mets. The Mets have lost 11 of the past 12 times they've played the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are the better team and have the stronger pitching matchup here with Eric Lauer versus Tylor Megill. Lauer is sailing below-the-radar with a 1.83 ERA in his last 13 appearances, which includes 12 starts. He's backed by a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Megill started well, but has hit a rookie wall. He has a 6.31 ERA. in his last seven starts.
09-23-21	Giants -102 v. Padres		6-7	Loss	-102	15 h 15 m	Show
Too much undeserved respect is being given to the Padres here. All the Giants do is win. They are 15-4 in their last 19 games and have been the most profitable team for bettors this season with the best record in baseball. The Giants also have their most effective pitcher going - Logan Webb. The season record shows Webb at 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA. But that's counting a slow start. Webb hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in 16 of his last 18 starts. He also hasn't lost a game since May 5. The Padres have collapsed. Yu Darvish hasn't helped. He's been a major disappointment with an 8-10 record and 4.13 ERA. Darvish has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He's recorded just one victory since June 21. Given the pitching matchups and price, it's a no-brainer to back the Giants.
09-22-21	Twins v. Cubs +106		5-4	Loss	-100	8 h 26 m	Show
I'm going to side with veteran Kyle Hendricks at a plus price pitching at home against rookie Joe Ryan. Hendricks is having a disappointing season, but he's a proven commodity and he knows how to navigate tricky winds at Wrigley Field. Those are the weather conditions in today's games with winds at 23 mph blowing in. Hendricks won't lack motivation as this likely will be his final home start. Ryan has looked good for Minnesota - but the sample is short. This is his fourth big league start. Two of them came against the weak-hitting Indians. The other was against these same Cubs, who got to him for three runs in five innings on Sept. 1. So the Cubs are familiar with Ryan. Note the Twins are 0-5 the past five times they've been interleague favorites.
09-21-21	Royals v. Indians -138	Top	1-4	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
09-18-21	Mariners +101 v. Royals		1-8	Loss	-100	8 h 52 m	Show
The Mariners are 13 games better than the Royals, have more to play for being in the wild-card race and are 7-0 in their last seven games in Kansas City. Yet, the Mariners opened slight underdogs. The pitching matchup of Yusei Kikuchi versus Kris Bubic doesn't justify that. Both are lefthanders. The Royals hit lefties better and have a winning record against southpaws at 25-22. Seattle, though, is 31-25 versus lefty starters. Kikuchi is 7-8 with a 4.23 ERA. He permitted just one run in five innngs during his last start this past Sunday against the Diamondbacks. He recorded eight strikeouts. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings when he faced the Mariners on Aug. 27 allowing five runs on nine hits.
09-17-21	Padres v. Cardinals -130	Top	2-8	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
09-15-21	Indians -104 v. Twins	Top	12-3	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
09-13-21	Red Sox v. Mariners +115		4-5	Win	115	20 h 53 m	Show
The Mariners don't generate much respect, but they are a feisty, underrated crew that is dangerous as home 'dogs. Seattle is 11-5 the past 16 times taking a plus price at home. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games with its two victories during this span occurring by one run each. The Red Sox have been struggling on the road dropping 15 of their last 22 away contests. Seattle is 8-5 in its last 13 games with three of those defeats coming by a single run. The pitching matchup is Eduardo Rodriguez versus Logan Gilbert. Rodriguez has a disappointing 5.15 ERA. He was racked by the Rays in his last start this past Tuesday giving up six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Gilbert also has a high ERA. However, the Mariners are 10-5 when they've been an underdog with Gilbert on the mound. Gilbert may dodge Red Sox power-hitter J.D. Martinez, who has missed the last three games due to back spasms.
09-13-21	Cardinals -105 v. Mets		7-0	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Maybe Adam Wainwright isn't over the hill. The 40-year-old is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA. He's finishing the season strong, too, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts. Wainwright is 7-2 on the road. Mets starter Rich Hill is even older than Wainwright at 41. The southpaw is 3-4 at home with a 4.22 home ERA. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 16 road games. They have won six straight away contests when facing a lefty starter. St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five games at the Mets. The situation isn't good for the Mets either having played the late Sunday night game against their subway rivals the Yankees.
09-09-21	Royals +105 v. Orioles		6-0	Win	105	19 h 55 m	Show
It's rare to see the Orioles a home favorite. It's even more rare to see them win in that role - or any other role. Baltimore is 2-8 the past 10 times it has been home chalk. I don't believe the Orioles should be priced higher than the Royals in a pitching matchup of Carlos Hernandez against southpaw John Means. Hernandez is flying below the radar going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during his last seven appearances spanning 42 1/3 innings. Means is the only decent starter in Baltimore's rotation. But he could be hitting the wall having already pitched 119 1/3 innings this season compared to 43 2/3 last year. The Royals have won 15 of the last 22 times they've faced a lefty starter. The Royals aren't going to lack motivation either after blowing a 5-0 eighth inning lead on Wednesday.
09-09-21	Twins v. Indians -133		1-4	Win	100	18 h 59 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the top-five teams - when it comes to burning money. I'm going to fade the Twins again at this reasonable price in a pitching matchup of Randy Dobnak versus Cal Quantrill. Dobnak is 1-7 with a 7.64 ERA. Quantrill has had a nice season for the Indians. Before suffering a bad outing against the Red Sox six days ago, Quantrill had gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his previous 16 starts. Minnesota is 11 games below .500 when playing on the road. The Indians usually are reliable as home chalk having won 36 of the past 51 times in that role.
09-08-21	Twins v. Indians -125	Top	3-0	Loss	-125	15 h 7 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
09-07-21	Phillies v. Brewers -102	Top	0-10	Win	100	22 h 50 m	Show
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
09-06-21	Twins v. Indians +117		5-2	Loss	-100	16 h 38 m	Show
I'm not buying the Twins as a road favorite. Minnesota is 3-7 in its last 10 road contests and has been one of the biggest underachievers of the season with a 59-77 record. The Indians, by contrast, are two games above .500. So is the pitching matchup that great where Minnesota should be favored? Nope. It's rookie Bailey Ober versus Logan Allen. Ober has a 3.98 ERA. The Indians counter with Logan Allen, who is pitching his best ball. Allen has allowed just two earned runs during his past two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. Allen might avoid power-hitter Miguel Sano, who is second on the Twins in homers and RBI's. Sano is questionable with a shoulder injury.
09-06-21	Giants v. Rockies +157	Top	10-5	Loss	-100	14 h 46 m	Show
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
09-03-21	Braves v. Rockies +129	Top	3-4	Win	129	19 h 40 m	Show
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game.
09-01-21	Astros -125 v. Mariners	Top	0-1	Loss	-125	5 h 57 m	Show
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts.
08-31-21	Braves v. Dodgers -177		2-3	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
It's a decent-size price against a respectable opponent, but it's still worth laying with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler is your probable Cy Young Award winner in the National League. He's 13-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 26 starts. He's been absolutely magnificent this month with a 1.35 ERA in five August starts. Buehler has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last nine starts. The Braves are familiar with Buehler. He beat them twice in the NLCS last year, giving up one run in 11 innings. Charlie Morton can't compete against those standards. Morton is 12-5 with a 3.60 ERA. He was touched for four runs in five innings against the Yankees during his previous start. The Dodgers have stepped up their game, too, going 14-3 in their last 17 games.
08-30-21	Twins v. Tigers +112	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	15 h 60 m	Show
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
08-28-21	Padres -118 v. Angels		2-10	Loss	-118	9 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on the Padres after San Diego shut out the Angels, 5-0, Friday. That halted the Padres' four-game losing streak and restored confidence. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games with that lone win occurring against the Orioles. The pitching matchup is Ryan Weathers versus Suarez. I'm not a fan of Weathers, but Suarez isn't imposing either with a 6.21 ERA during his last six starts. The Padres have a far superior lineup with the Angels missing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
08-27-21	Brewers -125 v. Twins		0-2	Loss	-125	20 h 24 m	Show
This is one of the rare times where there is more value on the favorite than the underdog. Milwaukee is 28 games above and is 42-21 on the road. Minnesota is 17 games below .500. The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games, surrendering an average of 8.8 runs during this span. Brewers starter Eric Lauer is a bottom-of-the-rotation type, who doesn't get much respect. But look at who the Twins are pitching, Andrew Albers. He's a 35-year-old journeyman who had been out of the majors for the past four years until resurfacing this year. Lauer is good for 4-to-6 innings. He's given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He's a good fit for the Brewers because their bullpen is strong and deep. Milwaukee has its top bullpen arms rested, too. Albers will be making only his second appearance of the season and first start.
08-25-21	Dodgers -136 v. Padres	Top	5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
08-25-21	Tigers +127 v. Cardinals		2-3	Loss	-100	5 h 43 m	Show
Now that he's harnessed his control, Tarik Skubal has become a dangerous pitcher. He's also underrated. Skubal is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span is 17-to-2. The last time Skubal walked more than one batter in a game was two months ago. The Tigers are improved and the Cardinals have been disappointing. St. Louis is 2-5 in its last seven games and starting washed-up Jon Lester. The lefty has a 7.08 ERA in four starts with the Cardinals and is 3-6 lifetime versus Detroit with a 5.40 ERA in 13 career starts. Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight games against southpaw starters.
08-24-21	Angels -131 v. Orioles	Top	14-8	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month. Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League. Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances. Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span. The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins.
08-23-21	White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays		1-2	Loss	-107	14 h 49 m	Show
Better team, better starting pitcher laying a short price. That sums up why I like the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Lance Lynn versus Alek Manoah. The steady Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run during each of his last four road starts. The White Sox are expected to have shortstop Tim Anderson back in the lineup. He's the White Sox leading hitter at .303. Anderson has sat out the last two games due to general soreness. Toronto has dropped six of its last eight games. Manoah is an exciting young pitcher, who can rack up a lot of strikeouts. But he's inconsistent. Manoah gave up seven runs in just three innings during his last start, a 12-6 loss to the Nationals six days ago.
08-22-21	Angels v. Indians -127		0-3	Win	100	15 h 49 m	Show
The Indians are going for a three-game sweep here against the Angels, a team they dominate. Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games versus the Angels. The Angels have been tagged for 24 runs during their last three games. They are vulnerable again to giving up a lot of runs starting Jose Suarez. He's proving unworthy of holding down a big league starting spot allowing 17 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 25 innings. Suarez doesn't go deep into games either. Cal Quantrill is turning into a solid, trustworthy pitcher for Cleveland. He's 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 33 appearances, including 15 starts. Quantrill has surrendered just five earned runs in four starts this month totaling 24 innings.
08-22-21	White Sox +115 v. Rays		0-9	Loss	-100	9 h 58 m	Show
Often opponents struggle at quirky Tropicana Field when taking on the home Rays. Not the White Sox. They have shown they can handle Astroturf winning nine of the past 12 times on that surface. Chicago also is 6-2 in its last eight games at Tampa. The price is right to back the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Chris Archer. It's Archer who has the bigger name. But Lopez is the more effective pitcher. Lopez has pitched well both starting and out of the bullpen. He hasn't given up more than one earned run during any of his 11 appearances this season compiling a 2-0 mark and 1.08 ERA. He held the A's scoreless in five innings allowing only one hit during his last start this past Tuesday. Archer hasn't been good for the past few years. It's to the point where you must wonder if Archer is washed up? This will be his first start since coming off the 60-day injured list this week. He's 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA this year. Archer's walk ratio has gone up each of the last three seasons he's pitched. It remains to be seen how effective he can still be. He sure doesn't figure to pitch very long in this one.
08-20-21	Royals v. Cubs +104		6-2	Loss	-100	12 h 48 m	Show
The sting of having dealt away core stars Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo could be wearing off for the Cubs. They've won two in a row. But the respect for the Cubs remains well down. How down? The oddsmaker opened the Royals a road favorite with Kansas City starting Brad Keller. Keller is 7-12 with a 5.62 ERA. He's in bad form, too, going 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA during his last three starts. He has a 5.88 day time ERA. I'm not enamored of Cubs starter Zach Davies. But he's off a positive start holding the Marlins to three unearned runs on four hits in six innings this past Saturday. Davies struck out seven and walked just one. He is 3-1 in day games with a 2.85 ERA. I would take him above Keller. The Royals are bad on the road going 20-37.
08-15-21	Cardinals v. Royals +112	Top	7-2	Loss	-100	9 h 36 m	Show
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here. Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007. The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties. Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road. The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties. Wrong team favored here.
08-13-21	Astros -135 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	12 h 30 m	Show
Look for Zach Greinke to tame an Angels team that has scored 4 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. The Angels continue to be without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Greinke has pitched his best ball away from Houston. He's 5-0 on the road with a 2.67 ERA. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval is slated to go for Anaheim. He is 1-4 with a 3.50 home ERA. Sandoval has made four career appearances versus the Astros, including three starts, and is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA. Houston leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .278. The Astros also have the fourth-highest slugging percentage against southpaws in the majors. Houston has scored the most runs per game of any team in baseball.
08-13-21	Cubs v. Marlins -114		10-14	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
Miami pitcher Jesus Luzardo has a high ceiling. He's been disappointing early in his big league career with a 3-5 record and 7.36 ERA. But the Cubs have become an auto-fade in this type of price range. Luzardo could be in line now for a big game against a decimated Cubs lineup that no longer has the traded Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baer and also is minus injured players Wilson Contreras, Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward. The Cubs are in free-fall, losing 14 of their last 16, including the past eight. They've lost their last two games by a combined margin of 27-4. Adbert Alzolay is slated to start for Chicago. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. Alzolay deserves this record with a 5.90 ERA in his last 10 starts. Miami owns the superior bullpen now that the Cubs jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel. The Marlins were idle Thursday after upsetting the Padres, 7-0, two days ago. So their bullpen is rested. The Cubs, by contrast, are playing for the fifth time in four days.
08-12-21	Reds +137 v. Braves		12-3	Win	137	13 h 44 m	Show
Atlanta is playing well. But I see too much value on the underdog Reds here. Cincinnati has a better record than the Braves and has the hottest power hitter in the majors. Yes, Joey Votto has hit the most homers and driven in the most runs since the All-Star break. Calls of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Rookies Vladimir Gutierrez versus Kyle Muller compose the pitching matchup. I'll side with Gutierrez against the southpaw Muller. Gutierrez is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA during his last three starts. He's struggled at hitter-friendly Great American Park, but is 5-1 with a 3.11 ERA on the road. Muller is the opposite of Gutierrez in that he has pitched worse at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA. The Reds rank fourth in the National League in slugging percentage against lefties.
08-12-21	Cardinals -119 v. Pirates		7-6	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
I hold no illusions about Wade LeBlanc. He's a journeyman pure and simple. But with LeBlanc on the mound for the Cardinals, this a chance to fade the Pirates at a reasonable price. The Pirates may be the worst team in baseball righ tnow. They have dropped seven in a row, scoring only six runs during their last five games. They are 18-38 during their past 56 games. As far as the pitching matchup, I still would take LeBlanc over JT Brubaker, who is 4-11 with a 4.95 ERA. Brubaker has lost seven straight decisions and holds an 0-3 lifetime record against St. Louis with a 5.30 ERA in four appearances, including three starts.
08-11-21	Tigers -114 v. Orioles	Top	5-2	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses. I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.
08-10-21	Tigers +100 v. Orioles	Top	9-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line. Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders. The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter. Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA.
08-07-21	Marlins v. Rockies -155	Top	4-7	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts. Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season. Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that. The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.
08-05-21	Phillies -139 v. Nationals		7-6	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
The Phillies have won four in a row. They are chasing the Mets to win the NL East Division. The Nationals are in rebuild after dealing Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. Now throw in a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Joe Ross and this is more than a fair price to lay with Philadelphia. Nola is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in day games this season. Ross is 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA at home this year.
08-04-21	Braves -115 v. Cardinals	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 49 m	Show
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ. Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts. Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.
08-04-21	Mets v. Marlins +152		5-3	Loss	-100	12 h 17 m	Show
The Mets seem to be pressing clinging to a narrow lead in the NL East Division having lost three in a row and 12 of their last 20 games. This is a value play as the Mets shouldn't be laying this high of a road number unless Jacob deGrom is pitching and he's on the injured list. Instead Carlos Carrasco gets the start. He's a good pitcher, but he's making the adjustment to the National League and has pitched only four innings all season having been out all this time with a hamstring injury. Carrasco is working his way into shape. The Marlins are going with Zach Thompson, a good-looking rookie who has a 2.33 ERA in eight starts. Miami is playing loose with nothing to lose. The Mets are playing tight and it's too early for them to count on a rusty Carrasco.
08-01-21	Twins v. Cardinals -133		3-7	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
The AL Central is a weak division and the Twins are the weakest team in that division. Minnesota has been bad and disappointing all season. Now the Twins are worse given their rebuilding moves at the trade deadline. Team morale had to suffer when team ace Jose Berrios was dealt. I've been looking to fade the Twins. I successfully did in Friday's game when Griffin Jax took Berrios' spot. I passed on Saturday's matchup because I didn't trust Cardinals starter Jake Woodford. The Twins bashed Woodford in winning, 8-1. But now the Cardinals are back on safe ground pitching Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old still is solid with a 3.51 ERA. Wainwright has a 2.70 ERA at home this season. His last start was five days ago on the road against the Indians. Wainwright beat the Indians, holding them to two runs in seven innings giving up four hits, walking two and striking out eight. Twins starter Michael Pineda has a 4.42 road ERA. He's backed by a bad bullpen. The Twins are 20-31 on the road.
08-01-21	Brewers +137 v. Braves	Top	2-1	Win	137	10 h 34 m	Show
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record. The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19. There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here. The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen. The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension. The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.
07-31-21	Brewers -145 v. Braves		1-8	Loss	-145	15 h 50 m	Show
I'll lay a mid-size price to get the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. I'm not worried about this game being in Atlanta. Milwaukee is 22-7 in its last 29 road games. The Brewers are playing well with a lot of confidence going 9-3 since All-Star break. Woodruff has a 1.96 road ERA and 2.14 ERA on the season. He has 1.84 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Atlanta. The Brewers have a fresh Josh Hader to head their strong bullpen. The Braves are going with rookie Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Brewers have tremendous depth with the addition of Eduardo Escobar, who made his presence immediately felt with Milwaukee hitting a home run in the Brewers' 9-5 Friday victory against the Braves. Christian Yelich is on the injured list, but he was having a terrible season.
07-31-21	Orioles -102 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
Matt Manning may become a good pitcher in time. But right now Manning, one of the Tigers' better pitching prospects, hasn't effectively made the big league grade. He has a losing record and a 6.00 ERA. Manning gave up four runs in five innings to the Twins during his last start. The Tigers go against Baltimore's top pitcher, John Means. Neither of these teams is good, but the Orioles are respectable when Means pitches. He's 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. So given the better pitcher at this price, I'll side with the Orioles.
07-30-21	Astros v. Giants -111	Top	9-6	Loss	-111	18 h 8 m	Show
You don't fade the Astros. You just like the other side better when the price is right. That's the case here. San Francisco has the highest winning percentage in the majors. The Giants are 33-16 at home and have their ace, Kevin Gausman, going. He's having a breakthrough season with a 9-4 record, 2.21 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 20 starts. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who I like but not as much as Gausman. Prior to shutting out the punchless Rangers for six innings during his last start, Valdez has given up 11 earned runs in three prior starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. The Giants also have the stronger bullpen with the sixth-lowest ERA in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is mediocre.
07-30-21	Twins v. Cardinals -140		1-5	Win	100	5 h 1 m	Show
The Twins' highly disappointing season just got worse. Minnesota dealt its best pitcher, Jose Berrios, to the Blue Jays today. Berrios was supposed to start against St. Louis. Instead the Twins will go with reliever Griffin Jax, who has a 7.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Cardinals are hanging in going 14-10 in their last 24 games. St. Louis is pitching veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has a 3.45 ERA with the Cardinals. He's backed by Alex Reyes, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with 24 saves in 25 opportunities and a 1.93 ERA. Minnesota has lost 25 of the past 34 times it has faced a lefty starter.
07-29-21	Reds -116 v. Cubs	Top	7-4	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
After a horrendous start, Luis Castillo has been one of the most effective pitchers in his last 10 starts posing a 1.71 ERA during this span. Castillo goes against a banged-up and demoralized Cubs squad that are highly likely to be sellers leading up to Friday's trade deadline. It's a dark cloud hovering above the Cubs. Castillo should dominate again with the wind blowing in at around 14 mph and facing a Chicago lineup that could be without Javier Baez for a fourth straight day and leading hitter Nico Hoerner, who left Wednesday's game with an oblique strain. The Cubs finished Wednesday's 8-2 loss with Kris Bryant playing shortstop. Cincinnati has fortified its vulnerable middle relief trading for Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson. The Cubs are slated to start Alec Mills, who has a 4.55 ERA. He'l be dealing with a red-hot Joey Votto, who has homered in five consecutive games.
07-27-21	A's +144 v. Padres	Top	4-7	Loss	-100	17 h 35 m	Show
The rebuilt Padres, sparked by superstar Fernando Tatis, are getting lots of love and attention. Not so for Oakland. Yet the A's have just one fewer loss than San Diego. I find good value with the A's here in a pitching matchup of James Kaprielian versus Chris Paddack. Kaprielian has exceeded expectations going 5-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has a 1.18 WHIP and has held opponents to a .202 batting average in his dozen starts. His ERA in three starts this month is 1.50. Both teams were idle on Monday. Oakland is 11-2 following an off day. Paddack has mainly disappointed this season going 6-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Kaprielian has been the more consistent pitcher.
07-26-21	White Sox -122 v. Royals		3-4	Loss	-122	16 h 59 m	Show
The Royals are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Tigers. But now they are stepping way up in class. I consider this a low price to lay, especially given the pitching matchup of southpaws Dallas Keuchel versus Mike Minor. The White Sox are deadly against lefties. Chicago is 19-8 versus southpaws this season. The White Sox rank in the top-six against lefties in many hitting categories, including batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage. Boosting the White Sox power is Eloy Jimenez is expected to make his season debut after being out with a ruptured pectoral tendon sustained during spring training. Minor has a losing record and a 5.45 ERA. Keuchel is 7-3 with a 4.22 ERA. Career-wise against the Royals, he's 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 11 starts.
07-25-21	Diamondbacks +156 v. Cubs		1-5	Loss	-100	9 h 40 m	Show
The Cubs have no business being this high of a favorite against any team - and that includes the Diamondbacks. Arizona whipped Chicago, 7-3, on Saturday. That marked the Cubs' 18th loss in their last 24 games. This horrendous stretch is likely to cost them their outstanding core of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel. It's difficult for the Cubs to keep their concentration in a world of trade rumors and uncertainty. The Diamondbacks have the stronger pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Caleb Smith versus Trevor Williams. Smith has shown flashes throughout his career. He holds a 2.78 daytime ERA. Williams has a 7.89 ERA in day games.
07-25-21	Tigers -107 v. Royals	Top	1-6	Loss	-107	9 h 60 m	Show
He's only made three starts, but the Royals' Daniel Lynch is laying claim to being the worst starter in the American League if not all of baseball. Lynch is 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA! The lefty doesn't even have the element of surprise going for him. The Tigers saw him earlier this season for 2 2/3 innings and reached him for four runs, three of which were earned. The Tigers were riding a season-best seven-game win streak before losing the first two games of this series. Detroit blew a 6-0 lead in losing by a run to the Royals on Saturday. So the frustrated Tigers should be focused. Detroit doesn't get much respect from the oddsmaker, but the Tigers have won six more games than the Royals. Detroit has some decent below-the-radar pitchers. Southpaw Tarik Skubal is one such starter. He's held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. He ranks 16th in the American League in strikeouts. Skubal is at his best in day games, too, with a 4-1 record and 3.15 ERA. The Tigers have a rested closer in Gregory Soto. He's better than any of Kansas City's relievers. The Tigers have a winning record versus lefty starters, while the Royals are below .500 when facing southpaw starters.
07-24-21	Diamondbacks +145 v. Cubs		7-3	Win	145	11 h 22 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are a joke - except when Merrill Kelly is pitching. Kelly will be taking the mound today facing Alec Mills and a disappointing Cubs team that has lost 17 of their last 23 games and expected to be sellers when the trade deadline comes up in a week. Arizona needs to be taken seriously when Kelly pitches having won five of his past six starts. Kelly has a 2.56 ERA during his last six starts. Among the teams the Diamondbacks have defeated during Kelly's last six starts are the Giants, Padres, Brewers and Cubs. Mills is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.64 ERA. So the Diamondbacks hold a major starting edge while getting a nice plus price.
07-23-21	Tigers +114 v. Royals		3-5	Loss	-100	16 h 5 m	Show
When it comes to lack of respect, the late Rodney Dangerfield had nothing on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers haven't lost since before the All-Star break. They are on a 7-0 run. The Royals have eight fewer victories than the Tigers. Kansas City has dropped 29 of its last 39 games. Yet the Royals opened a favorite against Detroit despite all this, including a pitching matchup that favors the Tigers. Righthander Wily Peralta has made six starts this year for Detroit. He's surrendered zero or one earned run in five of those outings. He's 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA. The Royals have lost 71 percent of the time during their past 51 games going against a righty. The Royals' starting staff is crippled with Danny Duffy and Brady Singer on the injured list. This has forced the Royals to turn to Kris Bubic, who has proven to be a better reliever than starter. Bubic has a 6.34 ERA in eight starts this season. Detroit has won seven of its last nine meetings against Kansas City.
07-23-21	Nationals -128 v. Orioles	Top	1-6	Loss	-128	16 h 5 m	Show
Trailing the first-place Mets by six games in the NL East, the Nationals are poised to make a move. This is their opportunity with three games against the Orioles, who have the worst home mark in the majors at 13-30. The Nationals get to open against Jorge Lopez, one of the worst starters in baseball with a 2-12 record and 6.04 ERA. Lopez has reached the sixth inning just once in his last seven starts. The Nationals got their bad game out of the way during their last game, a 3-1 loss to the Marlins where they hit into four double plays. Prior to that, though, the hot hitting Nationals were averaging 8.8 runs during their last five games. Washington starter Patrick Corbin had a very strong year two seasons ago. He started this year slow, but had an excellent June. This month not so good. Still, I like Corbin to get things turned around here against a Baltimore club that ranks 24th in runs and 25th in homers.
07-22-21	Angels v. Twins -135		3-2	Loss	-135	17 h 6 m	Show
The Twins have underachieved all season. But they still rank third in the majors in homers and I can see them build off a highly-satisfying 7-2 road win against the White Sox on Wednesday. The pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Kenta Maeda is a case of two starters heading in opposite directions. The southpaw Heaney has a 9.33 ERA during his last four starts and a 5.56 ERA on the season. Minnesota ranks second in the American League in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Maeda is starting to turn around his disappointing season, giving up three earned runs in his last 16 innings for a 1.69 ERA during this span. He faces an Angels lineup devoid of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. The Angels have scored just five runs in their last three games and are 19-26 on the road.
07-21-21	Mariners v. Rockies -135	Top	3-6	Win	100	5 h 6 m	Show
Back at home, fade on the road. That's the betting mantra of the Colorado Rockies. I passed on the Rockies yesterday and they were upset at home by Seattle. I don't see a repeat of that occurring today. Colorado is 32-20 at Coors Field. The Rockies are No. 1 in baseball in runs scored at home, while also ranking second in home batting average and third in slugging percentage in their home contests. Seattle has a losing road record. Moreso, Colorado starter Austin Gomber has proven effective at Coors Field where he's 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA this season. Gomber is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Mariners are using this as a bullpen game. So their mediocre relief corps gets to deal with Coors Field. Chances are good that several of Seattle relievers are going to experience difficulty.
07-21-21	Mets -128 v. Reds		7-0	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
This is a low price to get the much superior starting pitcher in a matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Jeff Hoffman. Neither bullpen is worth bragging about so starting pitching takes on added importance. Stroman is 2-to-3 levels above Hoffman, who has a 4.61 ERA and last pitched on June 26. He's been out due to a sore right shoulder. Hoffman has a 7.43 lifetime ERA against the Mets in six appearances, including four starts. Stroman should have extra incentive after a poor performance in his last start, a 4-1 loss to the hapless Pirates this past Friday. Stroman may not have to deal with the Reds' best player, Nick Castellanos, who has just two at bats the last five days because of a sore wrist. The Mets have been highly successful playing in Cincinnati winning 16 of the past 23 times there.
07-20-21	Rangers v. Tigers -109		1-4	Win	100	16 h 56 m	Show
It's not good when your team is mentioned with the Brooklyn Superbas of 115 years ago. But that's where the Texas Rangers are right now. The Rangers have lost six in a row with the last three losses coming by a combined score of 29-0. The 1906 Superbas were the last team to lose three straight that bad while not scoring a run. The Tigers entered the All-Star break off a three-game sweep of the Twins. Detroit stretched its win streak to four by stomping the hapless Rangers, 14-0, on Monday. The score could have been 16-0, but two Tigers were thrown out at the plate. Still, this was a season high in runs for Detroit. It's rare for the Tigers to hold a confidence boost against any team. But this game should be a clear exception. Texas has been outscored by 44 runs during its six-game losing skid. The Rangers are one of the worst road teams in the majors having dropped 53 of their past 69 away contests. The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning, 3-6 with a 4.22 ERA, versus Tarik Skubal, who is 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. Skubal is a high strikeout pitcher with 105 K's in 88 2/3 innings. Detroit is 6-2 in Skubal's last eight starts. This is an action play for me, though, as I want to fade the Rangers at this low price.
07-18-21	Red Sox +105 v. Yankees	Top	1-9	Loss	-100	14 h 36 m	Show
It took Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, a series of questionable calls and a rain-shortened six inning game, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox. Boston had won the first seven games against the Yankees this season until New York squeaked out a 3-1 win Saturday. This doesn't hide the fact the Red Sox have nine more wins this season than the Yankees and are the superior team especially given current conditions. No Cole now for today's series finale. The pitching matchup is lefty Martin Perez versus Jameson Taillon. I like Perez especially on the road where he's pitched much better. But this is an action play for me. The Yankees are reeling even with Cole's victory. It was just a band aid on what has been a lost season for New York. New York is 24-23 at home. Boston is 28-18 on the road. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters and average-to-below average hitting statistics against southpaws. Perez is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA on the road this season. Making things worse for the Yankees is they've been hit by a COVID-19 episode costing them numerous players and coaches. Among those out are power hitters Aaron Judge and Luke Voit. Taillon is a bottom tier starter with a 4.90 ERA that rises to 5.29 in night games. The Red Sox are 17-6 in their last 23 games against righty starters.
07-18-21	Rays -107 v. Braves		7-5	Win	100	7 h 36 m	Show
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Rays are 54-38 while the Braves are below .500. Atlanta starter Drew Smyly has been pitching well, but I prefer the Rays' starter, Rich Hill. Hill is 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Braves, including seven starters. The Braves are minus their most dynamic player, Ronald Acuna Jr. I don't think that has been fully factored into the line. I believe the Rays will respond well to the 9-0 embarrassing drubbing they took to the Braves Saturday.
07-16-21	Rays +115 v. Braves	Top	7-6	Win	115	10 h 8 m	Show
This is an action play based on value. I'm not a big fan of Michael Wacha, but the Rays have a deep and fresh bullpen. Kevin Cash isn't afraid to use his relief pitchers either. I like Charlie Morton better than Wacha. But Morton isn't having one of his better seasons and the Rays are much superior to the Braves. Morton has a losing lifetime record against the Rays. Tampa Bay is 16 games above .500. The Rays are 25-20 on the road and have beaten a righty starter 21 of the past 30 times. Atlanta is a below .500 team. The Braves aren't that good at home either going 24-22. They are 1-8 the past nine times they've been an interleague favorite. The Braves are minus their superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who is out for the season with a torn ACL.
07-11-21	A's -143 v. Rangers		4-1	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
Cheap price for the A's to lay here with All-Star Chris Bassitt against southpaw Kolby Allard and a Texas team that has the second-worst record in the American League. Bassitt, who is 9-2, has allowed just two runs in his last three starts against Texas spanning 20 innings. The Rangers have lost 40 of the past 56 times when going against a righty starter. Allard is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 4.67 ERA during this time span. He faced Oakland twice in June and gave up seven runs in 12 innings. Oakland is 44-17 in its last 61 road games against a lefty starter.
07-11-21	Reds v. Brewers -155		3-1	Loss	-155	8 h 35 m	Show
Luis Castillo has been pitching better, but he still doesn't compare to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers also hold a monster bullpen edge, which they won't hesitate to use if needed due to this being the last game before the All-Star break. Castillo has 10 losses, the most in the majors. He's been a huge disappointment for much of the year. Woodruff has been tremendous with a 2.10 ERA. The Brewers are 27-19 at home and getting unexpected power from their middle infield of Willy Adams and Luis Urias.
07-09-21	A's -131 v. Rangers		2-3	Loss	-131	16 h 2 m	Show
The A's haven't been playing that well lately, but they are off a huge, 2-1, road win against the Astros Thursday and now are stepping way down in class. I see the A's riding some momentum against a Rangers squad that is 19 games below .500 and is at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup. It's Cole Irvin versus journeyman Jordan Lyles. Irvin is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last six starts. The A's are 6-0 during these starts. Lyles is having another Lyles' type season with a losing record and 4.98 ERA. His ERA is 5.14 at home and 5.55 during night games.
07-09-21	White Sox -130 v. Orioles	Top	12-1	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
Dallas Keuchel is past his prime. That's a given. But this line still is way too short. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games. They are terrible and they have a terrible pitcher going in righty Jorge Lopez. He's 2-11 with a 6.02 ERA. The White Sox terrorize lefties, but they also are 7-2 in their last nine games versus righthanders. The White Sox have the fifth-highest batting average in the majors and also have scored the fifth-most runs per game. Lopez has a 5.48 career ERA versus the White Sox in four games, including three starts. Keuchel has a 3.23 career ERA against Baltimore in nine starts. The White Sox have won the last five games between the two teams.
07-08-21	Phillies v. Cubs -101		8-0	Loss	-101	15 h 13 m	Show
The Cubs snapped their hideous 11-game losing streak, beating the Phillies, 8-3, on Wednesday. The Cubs did it by lighting up Zach Wheeler for five runs in the first two innings. Wheeler entered the matchup with a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts. This was an impressive victory for the Cubs and I believe they'll ride this momentum and beat the Phillies again. Chicago is 27-15 at home. Philadelphia is 17-27 on the road. I also like the Cubs' starter, Adbert Alzolay, more than the Phillies starter, Zach Eflin. Alzolay has a 1.08 WHIP. The Cubs have the superior closer by far in Craig Kimbrel.
07-08-21	Royals v. Indians -126		4-7	Win	100	14 h 24 m	Show
Home field matters here. The Royals have lost 24 of their last 31 road games. The Indians have done the job as home favorites winning 40 of the last 58 times in that role. I see that pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Zach Plesac. The veteran Duffy is due for regression with a 2.60 ERA. Duffy's ERA's the previous three years are 4.95, 4.34 and 4.88. Plesac went 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts last year. He's healthy now and should improve on a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts this season. Cleveland has the more reliable bullpen. The Indians have won the last five in this series.
07-07-21	A's +140 v. Astros		3-4	Loss	-100	10 h 12 m	Show
I'm attracted to getting a mid-size plus price with a very good Oakland team that is pitching reliable Sean Manaea. Manaea has a 3.13 ERA, which shrinks a little to 3.05 in seven road starts. He has a lifetime 1.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts at Houston. He can be counted on to provide the A's with a strong effort and he's backed by one of the better bullpens. The Astros are countering with rookie Luis Garcia, who has strong overall numbers with a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Garcia, however, has allowed six earned runs during his past two starts spanning 10 innings. He's given up a combined 15 hits/walks in this time frame. This isn't so much a fade on the Astros as it is a value play on Oakland.
07-06-21	Rockies +108 v. Diamondbacks		3-4	Loss	-100	16 h 22 m	Show
If there is one team the Rockies can beat on the road it's the Diamondbacks, losers of 50 of their last 58 games and owners of the worst record in baseball. Colorado has the worst road record in baseball. However, Arizona has the lowest home percentage mark with a 13-27 record at Chase Field. The pitching matchup and bullpen favor Colorado with Jon Gray opposing Merrill Kelly. Gray is 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA. He's pitched well in two starts since returning from the injured list giving up two runs in 11 innings with 15 strikeouts. Kelly is 5-7 with a 4.67 ERA. He is 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a terrible bullpen with a 5.23 ERA. Closer Daniel Bard has solidified Colorado's backend relief corps.
07-05-21	Brewers -148 v. Mets		2-4	Loss	-148	14 h 5 m	Show
Once you get past Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman, the Mets are extremely weak and vulnerable in their starting pitching rotation due to injuries. Because of four other starting pitchers being out, the Mets are forced to go with rookie Tylor Megill in their rotation for the time being. Megill, who has a 4.82 ERA, is making just his third big league start. He faces one of the top pitchers in the NL, Brandon Woodruff, who has a 1.87 ERA. Woodruff has faced the Mets twice before going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. The Brewers are 11-1 in their last 12 games. They have beaten the Mets in eight of their past nine meetings. Milwaukee has the fresher bullpen catching the Mets off a Sunday doubleheader against the Yankees in their heated subway rivalry.
07-05-21	White Sox -111 v. Twins	Top	5-8	Loss	-111	14 h 20 m	Show
The White Sox are 8-1 against the Twins this season. Chicago just swept three games from Minnesota last week at home. One of those games was a 13-3 victory when the pitching matchup was Dylan Cease versus Bailey Ober. Cease gave up two runs on three hits in six innings during that victory with seven strikeouts. The Twins' run came on homers by Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson. Both of those players didn't play yesterday because of injuries so their status is questionable. Cease is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Ober is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA. The White Sox are 49-34. The Twins are 34-48. This is a clear mismatch. Getting the White Sox at this price is cheap.
07-04-21	Red Sox v. A's -106		1-0	Loss	-106	10 h 0 m	Show
This has been an exciting series. I rate the A's, though, a stronger edge at home than what the opening line is. The Red Sox have won 43 of 61 games versus non-AL West teams. But against AL West foes they are 9-14. Boston traditionally has trouble playing in Oakland like many other teams do. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus James Kaprielian. Pivetta has a 4.43 ERA and a much higher WHIP than Kaprielian, who has a 3.06 ERA and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts. Pivetta hasn't won since May 26. He has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts and has surrendered eight homers during his past four starts.
07-03-21	Cardinals v. Rockies -101		2-3	Win	100	14 h 12 m	Show
It can be a cliche to call a below-average, well-traveled pitcher a journeyman. In the case of southpaw Wade LeBlanc it's not a cliche. It's a fact. LeBlanc has shown up with the Cardinals this year. It's his 10th different team in 10 years. There are worse spot starters in the big leagues. But it's not exactly a plus if LeBlanc is in your starting rotation. LeBlanc and his hefty 5.60 ERA get the start here - at Coors Field. LeBlanc has pitched better for the Cardinals after posting a 9.45 ERA with the Orioles, who waived him because of that. But he's still Wade LeBlanc and he has a horrid history at Coors Field with an 8.54 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. Colorado is an entirely different team at home, winners of 19 of its last 26 games at Coors Field. The Rockies lead the National League in batting at home and also are No. 1 in the National League in hitting versus lefties. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is rounding into shape allowing only one run with 14 strikekouts and two walks during his last 11 innings. The Cardinals aren't likely to have ace closer Alex Reyes after he pitched two innings on Friday. The Rockies' best reliever, closer Daniel Bard, did not pitch yesterday.

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