The gift that keeps giving is back. Stuck with a huge contract they gave to Patrick Corbin four years ago, the Nationals keep trotting him out. Never mind that Corbin has become the worst pitcher in the National League if not all of baseball. 

Even adding Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Padres still aren't as good as the Dodgers. LA has beaten San Diego 16 of the past 18 times. This includes the first two games of this series by a 16-4 margin. I don't see things being any different in this series finale pitting Yu Darvish against lefty Tyler Anderson. 

The Dodgers are a blazing 14-3 since All-Star break. They have the best record in baseball at 74-33. 

Darvish hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as he has at Petco Park with a 4.50 away ERA compared to a 2.17 ERA at home. The Padres are 5-5 in his road starts. 
Anderson has been fantastic this season going 12-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

The Padres are a below average hitting team against lefties. They rank 20th in OPS versus southpaws and 23rd in slugging percentage. 

The Diamondbacks are a respectable 27-27 playing at home. Colorado plays much worse on the road with a 17-34 away mark. 

Nick Pivetta can be very erratic. But the Red Sox still are worth backing at this price against a rebuilding Royals team starting lefty Kris Bubic.

Bubic is 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA. He has a 9.45 ERA in two appearances against Boston, including one start.

The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last four games beating the Brewers and Astros during this span. They clearly are stepping down in class here.

Boston got better at the trade deadline. The Red Sox are 13-4 the past 17 times facing a lefty starter.

The Royals have lost seven of their past nine games. They also are 2-7 the last nine times hosting Boston.

Johnny Cueto has been solid all season for the White Sox with a 2.86 ERA. He's been truly outstanding on the road with a 1.70 ERA. The price is right to back the White Sox and Cueto against the struggling Rangers, who are starting lefty Cole Ragans. This will be Ragans' big league debut.

The White Sox could be making their move. They've won four of their last five games. The Rangers are on a three-game losing streak having just gotten swept at home by the Orioles. The Rangers scored a combined seven runs in those three games.

Ragans has split his year between Double A and Triple A. The White Sox have the highest batting average against lefty pitching in the majors.

The Twins have an above average offense and a solid starter going in Sonny Gray. But they are trumped in both of these areas by the Blue Jays, who lead the majors in batting average, are third in runs scored and sixth in homers. They also have stud Alex Manoah on the mound.

Gray enters this month off a poor July where he posted a 5.92 ERA in five starts. Manoah is 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.37 on the road. Minnesota is averaging 3.4 runs in its last four games.

Toronto is 11-3 in its last 14 games. The Twins are stepping up after hosting the Tigers for three games. Minnesota defeated Detroit, 4-1, on Wednesday. The Twins, though, have lost 22 of the past 28 (78 percent) times following a victory.

Lance Lynn is a prime example of coming back too soon from an injury. The White Sox rushed Lynn back to the mound and he's been largely ineffective all season with a 1-4 record, 6.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Lynn has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts. He's surrendered six homers in his last starts spanning 16 innings. 

Brady Singer is one of the more underrated starters in the American League. His season marks are a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those are efficient numbers, but he's been in tremendous form allowing only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. That comes out to a 0.95 ERA. Singer has given up more than three earned runs only once during his last nine starts and that was four runs. 

The righthanded Singer has a 2.97 road ERA. The White Sox don't hit righties nearly as well as they do against lefties batting .280 versus southpaws and .251 against righties.

The Royals are a respectable 5-6 in their last 11 games. The White Sox are an underachieving 52-51 on the season. They are one of the few teams I give a negative handicapping check mark when it comes to the manager, due to the ineptitude of Tony La Russa. The game clearly has passed him by.

These are two terrible teams, right? Well that's halfway correct. The Reds are 22 games below .500. But the Orioles actually are an above .500 team. They have been the most profitable team by far for bettors in the majors this season.

Once again, the Orioles are mispriced. They should not have opened underdogs to the Reds.

Baltimore is 16-6 in its last 22 games and 27-15 going back to its past 42 games. The Orioles have pulled out 23 come from behind victories, which is the second-highest in the American League.

The Reds are bad and likely to get worse being already active as the Tuesday trade deadline approaches. Gone is Luis Castillo, their best pitcher. Tyler Naquin also has departed. More veterans could be following. That can't help the Reds' concentration, nor team morale.

I certainly don't see why the Reds should be favored from a starting pitching standpoint either with Austin Voth facing rookie Nick Lodolo. Voth is not going deep into the game. He's made six starts and 23 relief appearances. The Orioles are 7-1 in Voth's last eight appearances.

I'm fine with a Baltimore bullpen game. The Orioles have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors at 3.00. Lodolo will be making his fifth start since returning from a 69-day stint on the injured list. He has a 4.08 ERA in those starts. That ERA becomes 7.56 if you count just day games, which this matchup is.

One more thing. The Reds have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21.

The Guardians beat the Rays, 4-1, behind Shane Bieber on Friday. Tampa Bay had won the previous seven times hosting Cleveland.

Look for things to revert back to normal in the second game of this series in a pitching matchup of Zach Plesac versus Corey Kluber.

Tampa Bay is 31-19 at home. Kluber isn't the Cy Young Award winner of 2014 and 2017 anymore. But he's still highly respectable and has pitched his best at tricky Tropicana Field with a 4-1 record and 3.42 ERA at home.

Plesac, who is 2-8 with a 4.09 ERA, is not in good current form. He's 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. He is 1-6 with a 4.97 ERA during his road starts.

The Guardians have lost 11 of their last 17 away contests. They are a below .500 team on the road.

Since a 27-17 start, the Angels have been in free fall. Even with their 6-0 win against the Royals on Tuesday, the Angels have lost 15 of their last 19 games. The Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. They are bad again on the road this season going 18-29 in away games.

The Royals were averaging 5.6 runs and 12.6 hits in winning three in a row until Tuesday's loss to the Angels. Look for Kansas City to get back to winning in a pitching matchup of Janson Junk versus Brad Keller.

Junk's minor league ERA is 3.88. Keller has a 4.16 big league ERA, but pitches better at home and during the day. His home ERA is 3.88 and his day time ERA is 3.05.

The Mets have been outstanding this season at 59-37. But they are trumped by the Yankees, who are 66-31.

The Mets scored eight runs in their last game this past Sunday against the Padres. However, the Mets had scored only 10 runs during their previous five games for an average of two runs per game. The Yankees have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 16 games. The Yankees are No. 1 in runs and homers. Aaron Judge has a MLB-high 37 homers with 81 RBI's and 80 runs scored.

The Mets can't compete with the Yankees' power. They rank 19th in homers. The Mets' offensive numbers go down when they face left-handed pitchers, which is the case here with southpaw Jordan Montgomery going against Taijuan Walker.

Walker has been superb with a 7-2 record and 2.55 ERA. But Montgomery has been very consistent for the Yankees with a 3.24 ERA. Montgomery is backed by a superior Yankees bullpen that ranks No. 2 in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Mets are well below average against lefty pitching ranking 21st in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 23rd in slugging percentage.

The Yankees have too many edges. The price is right to back them.

Until running into the Astros, the Mariners were the hottest team in baseball winning 14 in a row. Now the Mariners go from losing three straight to the 64-32 Astros to the 43-51 Rangers, who just lost two of three to Oakland, the worst team in the American League. 

Expect the Mariners to get back on track in a pitching matchup of Glenn Otto versus Chris Flexen. 

Otto hasn't proven he is big league caliber with a 5.40 ERA. Otto has given up 18 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Texas is 0-5 in those games. The Mariners just faced Otto eight days ago and put up three earned runs on five hits, including two homers, in six innings during their 6-2 road victory. Seattle is 20-7 the last 27 times facing a righty starter. 

Flexen's 3.79 ERA ranks 19th in the American League. He's been especially hot lately going 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA during his past three starts. 

The Rangers have lost 42 of the last 58 times on the road against above .500 opponents. 

The A's are going for their first home sweep of the season having won the first two games of their series against Texas. Don't expect the A's to achieve this. 

Oakland has the worst record in the American League. A big reason for this is a 14-32 home mark. The Rangers are eight games below .500. But they have a plus run differential. They are a superior team to the A's and have the better starting pitcher going Sunday. 

Martin Perez versus Paul Blackburn may seem like a starting pitching draw. It isn't. 

Perez is 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA. He's been terrific on the road with a 3-0 record and 2.52 ERA in eight away starts. Texas is 12-2 in Perez's last 14 starts. Both losses came to the Mariners. The A's have the worst offense in the majors ranking last in batting average and OPS, second-to-last in runs and third-from-the-bottom in homers. 
Blackburn was selected to the All-Star team. But he's not a real All-Star especially when it comes to pitching in Oakland where he's 1-4 at home with a 6.75 ERA.

Blackburn started the season off extremely well, but he's run out of gas posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP during his past six starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. Blackburn also has a terrible history against Texas with an 0-2 record and 10.54 ERA in four appearances. 

The Rangers just saw Blackburn 11 days ago getting to him for five runs in six innings. Blackburn gave up four walks in that game, throwing just 55 strikes out of 101 pitches. 

It's hard not to overreact to the Blue Jays destroying the Red Sox by 23 runs on Friday. Toronto pounded out 29 hits in winning, 28-5. 

Of course it was just one game. But it may take more than a day for the Red Sox to get rid of that embarrassment. But what really puts me on Toronto today besides its four-game win streak and hot hitting is the low lay price in a pitching matchup of Alek Manoah versus Kutter Crawford.

Cutter has a 4.50 ERA. That ERA goes up to 5.09 when he pitches at Fenway Park. Cutter's daytime ERA is 6.43. Manoah has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League with a 10-4 record and 2.28 ERA. He's faced Boston twice this year and is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Red Sox. 

The Red Sox could be without J.D. Martinez for a second straight game due to back pain, while George Springer could return to Toronto's lineup after sitting out Friday's game to rest a sore elbow. 

The Phillies have played their best ball since firing Joe Girardi going 27-14. The Cubs come out of All-Star break losers of nine of their last 10. Chicago has failed to break the three-run barrier in 10 of its last 11 games.

Kyle Gibson tamed a weak Marlins offense in his last start. He's certainly capable of taking advantage of the struggling Cubs, who are averaging 1.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson has 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Cubs are starting Justin Steeler, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 

Short price to lay with the superior home club. 

These two teams met last Sunday with the same pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta against Jameson Taillon. It wasn't pretty. Both pitchers were battered in an 11-6 Red Sox victory. The Red Sox have beaten the Yankees in the past three meetings. The Yankees head into All-Star break weekend not playing well with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. 

Pivetta is the epitome of a hot-and-cold pitcher. Taillon is in terrible form after a strong early-season performance. Tallion is 9-2, but his ERA is 4.01. His ERA during his last three starts is 8.22. 

So at this 'dog price, the Red Sox are worth a shot.

Chris Sale can't be expected to go deep into this game having not pitched in the majors this season because of a rib stress fracture. Sale's rehab in preparing for his season debut was just 11 1/3 innings of minor league work with Boston's rookie league team, Double-A team and Triple-A team.

Rays starter Corey Kluber isn't the dominant Cy Young Award winner of years past. But he's still solid with a 3.62 ERA. The Red Sox know this first-hand. Kluber just faced Boston six days ago at Fenway Park and threw six shutout innings, giving up three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 victory. Kluber is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Park this season.

The Red Sox entered this series in a letdown frame having just taken two in a row from the Yankees, including a big 11-6 home win in the Sunday Night ESPN Game. The Rays, on the other hand, had much to prove returning home after being swept three games by the lowly Reds in Cincinnati. 

Lance Lynn has yet to show anything since coming off the injured list. He has a 5.33 ERA. He just gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Wednesday. So I don't get him opening as a road favorite against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.86 ERA. He has been better at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA.

The White Sox offense has been a disappointment this season ranking 20th in runs and 27th in homers. The White Sox entered the weekend with the highest swing rate in the American League at pitches outside the strike zone at nearly 36 percent.

I like Zac Gallen better than any Arizona pitcher. The Rockies are terrible on the road and the Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats.

Even nipping the Diamondbacks by one run on Thursday, the Rockies are 9-25 in their last 34 road games. This isn't anything new. Colorado was 26-54 on the road last year. At 13-26, the Rockies own the worst away mark in the majors.

Gallen is very solid. He's 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The Rockies can hit at home, but not on the road. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their past eight away matchups.

Rockies starter Chad Kuhl has a 4.39 road ERA. He's off his highest pitch count in six games. Arizona has scored five or more runs in eight of its last 10 games.

The Giants have to be faded as long as the oddsmaker keeps making them a favorite while they are struggling. San Francisco is 3-12 in its last 15 games. The Giants have lost a season-high six in a row.

Fresh off sweeping three games from the Giants in San Francisco - all in an underdog role - the White Sox returned to Chicago and lost Monday to the Twins. The White Sox's concentration could have been impacted by a tragic Fourth of July shooting that took place during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. The Twins also turned a key triple play.

I like the White Sox to bounce back today. Minnesota is 4-15 (21 percent) following a victory. The White Sox are 20-8 during the second game of a series.

Even with that victory, the Twins still are 3-9 during their last dozen road games against the White Sox.

The pitching matchup is Chris Archer versus Michael Kopech. Archer has pitched well with a 3.08 ERA, but he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was and he doesn't go deep into games. Kopech is a rising star with a 2.78 ERA, who has been held back by arm injuries. He's healthy now.

I guess the Braves have to be favored at home here in a pitching matchup of Cardinals rookie Andre Pallante versus Ian Anderson.

But based on the current form of these two starters, St. Louis is the team that should be a hefty favorite.

Pallante has been brilliant with a 2.10 ERA. His road ERA is even better at 1.31.

Anderson, on the other hand, has been terrible with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. His home ERA this season is 6.28. The Braves are without their star closer, Kenley Jansen, too.

So you would be Thick as a Brick if you backed Ian Anderson in this spot.

The Brewers are back playing good ball winning six of their last eight games. They have proven trustworthy in this role going 29-11 the past 40 times at home when taking on a below .500 opponent. The Cubs have lost in eight of their last 10 games in Milwaukee. The rebuilding Cubs also have dropped nine of their last 12 road contests.

I give a starting pitching edge to Milwaukee in a matchup of Justin Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) versus Eric Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA). The Brewers get a huge bullpen checkmark. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of 3.54 compared to Chicago's bullpen ERA of 4.55.

The Brewers have the three best relievers with closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger. All have ERA's of 2.05 or less.

The Phillies have been bet up in this Sunday night ESPN matchup for good reason.

Zach Wheeler is pitching at home. Wheeler has a 1.85 home ERA this season. He's been at his best, too, in night games with a 2.06 ERA in evening games.

Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright is having a solid season, but he won't be throwing to his batterymate of 17 years with Yadier Molina out due to a knee injury. The Cardinals not only lose Molina's Hall of Fame-caliber defense, but his replacements can't hit. Rookie Ivan Herrera is batting .111 and Andrew Knizner is hitting .185. 

The Phillies are swinging hot bats, too, averaging 8.3 runs in their last three games. 

St. Louis has lost eight of its last 11 road games and has lost six of its past eight games in Philadelphia. 

Laying a short price against the Reds on the road rarely is a bad thing even when the home team is the Cubs. 

Cincinnati is 14-25 on the road this season. The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games. 

The Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games. During this span they are averaging 6.2 runs a game. 

So I feel confident backing the Cubs here. The pitching matchup is Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft versus crafty veteran Kyle Hendricks. 

Ashcraft has been impressive with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA. He limited the Giants to two runs in eight innings during his previous start this past Friday. Prior to that, however, Ashcraft was battered for 10 earned runs in his two previous starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. During that two-game time frame, Ashcraft gave up 17 hits, two walks and two homers. 

Hendricks also is coming off an excellent start. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals this past Friday. Hendricks' night ERA is a respectable 3.78. 
The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out at 10-13 mph. The savvy, experienced Hendricks is better equipped to deal with these elements than Ashcraft, who has never pitched at tricky Wrigley Field. 

The Astros are good. The Yankees are great. How great? The Yankees have matched the best 76-game start in the last 92 years. New York is seeking its 17th win in the last 21 games here.

It is rare to lay such a low price with the Yankees.

I like the pitching matchup for New York with Luis Severino versus Luis Garcia. Houston also is likely to be minus shortstop Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, their leading power-hitter. Both were injured in a collision on Wednesday. Alvarez leads the Astros in homers and RBI's.

Severino is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA gets reduced to 3.13 if you count just his last six starts.

Garcia is 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He is more of a middle-to-bottom end rotation starter while Severino is talented enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter especially if he were with a lesser team.

The Angels are getting desperate for starting pitching as they are bringing up Chase Silseth to start against the White Sox today. Silseth was sent to Double A after going 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Silseth was even worse at home posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his two Anaheim starts.

On the flip side, Johnny Cueto isn't being given enough respect. Yes, Cueto is past his prime, but he's been highly productive especially on the road where he has a 1.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four away outings.

Cueto has a tremendous track record, too, against the Angels going 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in five lifetime starts.

The White Sox own a winning road record this season.

Tropicana Field, home of the Rays, is a strange and tough place to play. It's especially difficult for National League teams since they rarely go there. It's not a fluke the Rays have won 72 percent of their last 53 interleague home games.

Look for the Rays' offense to improve now that Wander Franco is back in the lineup.

The Rays are starting highly promising rookie Shane Baz. He's coming off a game against the powerful Yankees six days ago where he allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 1.93 ERA at Tropicana Field.

Brandon Woodruff is set to make his first start for Milwaukee since May 27. He's been out with an ankle injury. Woodruff could be rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game.

Kansas City has the second-worst record in the American League in front of only Oakland. One reason for this is you have to go back to April 19-21 to find the last time the Royals won a home series. I don't see the Royals getting off to a good start in the opening game against the Rangers today.

It's a battle of lefty starters, Martin Perez versus Kris Bubic. That favors the Rangers more than the betting line shows.

Perez is having a career season with a 5.2 record and 1.96 ERA. Perez is in stellar form allowing just one run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Kansas City ranks 27th in runs and homers.

Texas is 15-10 versus southpaws this season, including 7-1 the past eight times facing them. The Rangers should be in line for a strong offensive performance as Bubic has a 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 34 innings this season.

The Rangers have won in 10 of their last 14 visits to Kansas City.

This series has taken on added significance with Freddie Freeman returning to Atlanta. The Braves got past the Dodgers, 5-3, on Saturday. Prior to that, though, the Dodgers had won five of six, winning those games by an average of 4.8 runs.

LA has a huge edge in this matchup, not reflective of this short line with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus rookie Spencer Strider.

Gonsolin has been the Dodgers' best pitcher with a 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Dodgers are giving up the fewest runs per game, while scoring the most runs per game.

The league is starting to figure out Strider, who was clobbered for six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Giants during his last start this past Tuesday.

Injuries to stud pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and more recently Aaron Ashby have taken a toll on the Brewers' starting rotation not to mention a hit on their won/lost record.

Except for an occasional long ball, Zach Davies has been pitching well posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four starts. He's also gone at least six innings during each of three past four starts. Look for Davis to fare well against a weak Tigers offense that ranks last in home runs and runs.

The Tigers won the first game of this series. Yet their road record is just 9-21.

The Diamondbacks should do damage as they draw Alex Faedo, who is 1-4 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

The Yankees are in their own tier in the American League. They are the best team in baseball with a .739 winning percentage. The Yankees are going for their 19th win in their last 22 games at home against the Astros. I see no reason not to get involved with the Yankees at this short home lay price. 

The Astros are good. But they aren't as strong as the Yankees. New York is first in runs scored. Houston ranks 17th. The Yankees have won 81 percent of their home games. They have won 11 of their last 16 home contests against Houston. 

Houston is going with Framber Valdez on the mound. I like Valdez. But I also like Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, who is having a huge season with an 8-1 record and 2.70 ERA. New York has better bullpen depth than the Astros, too. 

This represents a rare opportunity to back the Yankees at more than a fair price. 

The Pirates are the better team and are at home. So I'm perplexed as to why this line is inflated in the Cubs' favor. 

The pitching matchup pits lefties Justin Steele, who has a 4.27 ERA, against Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana, who has a 3.66 ERA and the added motivation of pitching against the team he played for from 2018-2020. 

The Cubs battered the Pirates, 14-5, on Wednesday. However, the Pirates won the first two games of the series by a combined 19-2. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in its last seven games. The Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 games. 

The Pirates are getting a spark from recently called-up talented young players such as Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris. 

The Blue Jays hold a strong pitching edge with Jose Berrios going against Lance Lynn, who only will be making his second start of the season after being on the injured list. Lynn has a 6.23 ERA on the season and a 4.21 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in eight starts.  Berrios is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He is 12-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 3.12 ERA in 21 starts.  The White Sox are traveling back home after losing the Sunday night game on the road to the Astros. The Blue Jays are off a huge Sunday victory against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have the superior offense and better starting pitcher going. So the price is ripe to back them. 

I'm going with plus price value in this one. Both teams are hot. The Braves are 15-2 in their last 17 games, although the two losses occurred during their recent series against the lowly Cubs. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games.

The pitching matchup is a good one - Logan Webb versus lefty Max Fried.

The Giants are 13-6 against southpaw starters. Webb is 2-0 lifetime against the Braves with a 1.35 ERA in three starts.

You know the Royals must be playing a really bad opponent with a terrible starting pitcher to be installed as road favorites in this range. 

Well, they are: Oakland.

Dumpster fire is too kind of a description to call the A's at home. Oakland is 3-22 in its last 25 home games, including losing its last eight. The A's have lost 15 of 17 overall, which now gives them the worst record in baseball with a .333 winning percentage. 

Still think this price is too high to lay?

I certainly don't with a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Jared Koenig. 

Singer is 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 3.38 when he pitches on the road. Singer has had only one horrendous start this season. That came against the Astros, a far stronger hitting club than the A's, who rank in the bottom-two in runs, batting average and homers. Oakland has been shut out in 12 percent of its games. 

Koenig has made two starts spanning a total of eight innings. He's allowed 14 hits, including two homers, and four walks during this span for an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. 

The Royals have shown improvement lately unlike the A's, winning five of their last nine games. 

I'm attracted to getting the better team at a plus price especially when the underdog holds a pitching edge. That's the case in this Cardinals-Red Sox game.

Dakota Hudson goes against Kutter Crawford. Hudson doesn't excite anyone because he's not a strikeout pitcher. But Hudson is solid and he's backed by a strong fielding Cardinals team. Hudson has 2.28 ERA in night games this season. He hasn't permitted a home run during his last six starts.

Crawford has a 5.74 ERA. The youngster is coming off a career-high 83 pitches in his last start. Crawford hadn't thrown more than 50 pitches in his big league career.

I don't feel the Brewers should be underdogs to the Mets here. I see no starting pitching edge to the Mets with Andrian Houser facing Chris Bassitt. The Brewers hold a big advantage on the mound in the later innings with setup man Devin Williams and ace closer Josh Hader. 

Look for Julio Urias to come in with a big game to keep the Giants from sweeping the Dodgers. Urias has a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against the Giants in 21 games, including 15 starts.

Urias rates a stronger edge on Giants starter Carlos Rodon than the betting line indicates.

Rodon started hot, but has tailed off. He has a 3.77 ERA in his last three starts in which he's given up 17 hits and six walks during this span. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs averaging 5.2 per game.

Rodon is 0-2 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Gerrit Cole may not even be the best pitcher on the Yankees. Nestor Cortes is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He has a 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cortes gets the start against Chris Archer as the Yankees try for their eighth straight victory.

Archer has a respectable 3.89 ERA. But note that his last four starts have come against very weak-hitting teams - Tigers twice, Royals and A's. The last time Archer faced a strong offense was five starts ago against the Astros. Houston got to him for five runs (four earned) in just three innings before he was pulled.

Archer hasn't pitched well at home either with a 5.00 ERA.

The Mets have the best record in the National League at 37-19. However, they are just 9-9 against lefty starters. Going back long-term, the Mets are 21-45 against a southpaw starter during their last 66 road games.

Here the Mets draw Padres lefty Blake Snell.

The Mets may be in letdown mode after just concluding a high profile four-game series against the Dodgers by nipping LA in extra innings on Sunday.

Carolos Carrasco gets the start for New York. He has a 5.06 road ERA and is off his highest pitch count during his last five starts.

The Padres have scored 17 runs in their last three games against a strong Brewers pitching staff.

Adam Wainwright is 40. But he's shown no signs of slowing down with a winning record and 2.75 ERA. Wainwright faces lefty Justin Steele, who has a 5.40 ERA and has lost his last five decisions. The Cardinals saw Steele last September and got to him for six runs in five innings.

St. Louis is 19-7 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter.

The Cardinals are the deeper and superior team to the Cubs. They are better equipped all the way around to win the fifth game of this series after Saturday's doubleheader.

St. Louis has defeated the Cubs in seven of the past nine games at Wrigley Field.

The White Sox are terrible in the role of road underdog. That's the position they find themselves in today against the Rays. The White Sox have lost 41 of the past 53 times (23 percent) as an away underdog.

The White Sox are in bad form, too, losing seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay has won three in a row.

Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has been solid with a 5-2 mark and 3.47 ERA. Chicago's Dylan Cease is a big strikeout pitcher, who can dominate weaker lineups but has problems against good offenses. The Yankees and Red Sox, for instance, got to him for 13 runs in a combined seven innings. Cease also walks too many batters.

Brady Singer has been pitching well. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is inconsistent, either very good or very bad.

But this price is low enough to get involved with the Astros against the worst team in baseball. That team is Kansas City.

The spot isn't good either for the 16-33 Royals. This is their first home game back following a 2-7 road trip.

The Astros are 22-7 in their last 29 games. They have defeated the Royals 14 of the past 20 times and are 8-3 against them the last 11 times in Kansas City.

The Royals have never faced Urquidy giving him the surprise element.

Kansas City has lost 10 of the last 11 times it has been a home 'dog.

The Cardinals are much superior to the Cubs. The records bear this out. St. Louis is 29-22, while Chicago is the opposite at 22-29.

The Cubs edged the Cardinals, 7-5, on Thursday. But I don't see Chicago beating St. Louis again.

The Cardinals have won five of the last six at Wrigley Field. St. Louis is 35-16 in its last 51 road games. The Cubs are 4-23 in their last 27 home games when taking on an above .500 opponent.

The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus Marcus Stroman. That favors St. Louis, too. Mikolas has a 1.54 road ERA. Stroman has struggled at Wrigley Field with an 0-2 record and 6.28 home ERA.

Corey Kluber isn't likely to ever win a third Cy Young Award. But he's shaken off injuries to become respectable. Kluber is a good fit for the Rays. He's been solid this season in nine starts with a 4.03 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP.

I give Kluber and the superior Rays a much bigger edge than the oddsmaker finding this lay price to be 25-30 cents lower than it should be.

The Rays are banged-up, but they have excellent depth. They also get to face Taylor Hearn, who probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation.

Making the conversion from bullpen to starter, Hearn has made nine starts. The numbers aren't pretty - a 5.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Kluber handled a much tougher Yankees lineup in his last start, holding them to one run on three hits in six hits. The Rangers rank 21st in batting average. The bottom of their order is weak and they could have the most disappointing hitter in the majors this season, Marcus Semien.

Semien smacked 45 homers last year while batting .265 for the Blue Jays. He's been an utter bust so far with the Rangers hitting .193 with one homer.

I'm not sure why, but Luis Castillo still commands some respect from the oddsmaker. Otherwise why else would the Reds only be midsized road underdogs? 

 So I find this to be that rare spot where there is value on the home favorite.  The Reds have the worst road record in the majors at 7-19. They have the worst pitching in the league and rank 26th in batting. Cincinnati is below average in just about every offensive category.  

The Red Sox rank third in batting and have scored the fifth most runs. I don't see Castillo, an underachiever given his high ceiling, stopping Boston at Fenway Park. Castillo is off to a slow start again this season with a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA.  

Boston is off an embarrassing, 10-0, Memorial Day home loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox certainly shouldn't lack motivation following that stinker. Before that loss, though, the Red Sox were 9-3 in their last 12 games while averaging 8.6 runs during their previous five games. The Red Sox have won the opening game in five of their last six series. 

Boston starter Michael Wacha has looked good with a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. He dominated the Reds during his years with the Cardinals going 12-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 23 career appearances.  

Perception doesn't match reality here.

The perception is the defending world champion Braves are good and the Diamondbacks, losers of 110 games last year, are terrible. This isn't right.

Atlanta is 23-25. Arizona is 23-26. Note, too, that nine of Arizona's losses have occurred to the Dodgers, who have the best lineup in baseball. The Diamondbacks are 18-13 outside of the NL West Division.

Not only are the Diamondbacks home, but they have a huge edge in starting pitchers with rookie Spencer Strider opposing Zac Gallen. This will be Strider's first big league start. His 11 appearances this season have all come in relief.

Gallen has been an underrated monster this season. He's made eight starts. All have been excellent except one. Gallen has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in six starts and two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts. Gallen has a 2.22 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

Gallen faced the Braves once last season - his only appearance against them - and tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. The Diamondbacks are much better this season while the Braves have yet to get in gear.

The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. But I see the Angels winning this home game in a pitching matchup of Michael Lorenzen against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

The Angels traditionally are a strong home team. That's the case so far this season as they are 12-5 in their last 17 home contests.

The Angels also have done well versus lefties. They went 30-25 versus southpaw starters last year and are 8-5 against them this season.

Kikuchi is having a good season, but he has a bad history versus the Angels with a 1-4 record and 10.92 ERA in seven previous starts against them.

Lorenzen has his confidence up after consecutive strong starts giving up just one run during the past 13 innings.

The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games.

The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth.

Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs.

But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors.

The Brewers have trouble with the Cardinals losing eight of the past 11 times to them. Perhaps the Brewers' biggest strength is the backend of their bullpen with closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams.

However, neither of those two are likely to play. Hader has been on family medical emergency leave. This has forced Williams to pitch in three straight games for the first time this season.

So the Brewers need lefty Eric Lauer to pitch deep into the game. Lauer has pitched well with a 2.16 ERA. He's not that good, though, so regression is due. The Cardinals also hit lefties well. St. Louis ranks No. 1 in weighted on base average versus southpaws. Lauer has to deal with a pair of tough righthanded bats in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright continues to defy time. He has a 2.87 ERA. He's given up only three runs in 20 innings this month.

Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them.

The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games.

Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts.

Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class.

The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball.

Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts.

The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen.

The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. 

The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. 

Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. 

The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts.

I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. 

The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl.

Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type.

The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field.

The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here.

If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. 

OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category.

The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. 

Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. 

Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. 

Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season.

The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. 

Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. 

The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. 

The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. 

I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado. 

The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night.

Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role.

The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season.

Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles.

Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts.

The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best.

The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties.

The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees.

I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays.

The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts.

Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays.

The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. 

So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. 

The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers.

Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts.

Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. 

Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher.

The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs.

It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. 

Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts. 

Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home.

Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties.

Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games.

I have this one marked much higher. I don't believe the oddsmaker is giving the Rockies and their starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, enough respect here.

The right-handed Senzatela has proven he can pitch well at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-3 during the last 13 games he's pitched there. He has a 3.12 ERA in this span. The Nationals have lost 25 of the last 36 games they've gone against a righty starter.

Washington starter Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good for years - and he's not good this season with a 6.75 ERA.

The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde.

Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA.

Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved.

Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games.

After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. 

I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston.

I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year.

Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros. 

The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader.

Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games.

The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation.

The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds.

Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year.

The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record.

The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83.

Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds.

The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz.

Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals.

The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter.

The Astros have dominated the Rangers winning 40 of the past 59 times. I expect that domination to continue this season. This price still is low enough to back Houston in a pitching matchup of Framber Valdez versus Dane Dunning.

Valdez had his way with the Rangers last season going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. 

Dunning isn't going to be able to slow down a strong Houston lineup especially with a weak bullpen behind him. Dunning is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two career appearances against Houston. He has a 5.68 ERA this season. 

Healthy now, this is the year of Michael Kopech. I really believe that. I drafted him way ahead of his average draft position in my Rotisserie baseball league and so far Kopech is living up to his high ceiling with a 1.00 ERA through two starts.

Kopech has given up just three hits - only one extra base hit - in nine innings. Opponents are batting .107 against him. Look for Kopech to continue his hot hand against the Twins. He's 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 1.29 ERA.

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has a 3.27 ERA. Ober has potential, too, but he's not the prospect Kopech is. Ober has a 4.76 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in five starts.

This isn't a good situational spot either for the Twins returning home after concluding a seven-game road trip yesterday.

Fatigue, an overworked bullpen and playing on a grass surface all work against the Rays in this matchup. So does facing Marcus Stroman.

This is enough to put me on the Cubs.

Tampa Bay hasn't been sharp with a 6-6 record. This will be the Rays' 13tht straight day of playing. Their first off day comes Thursday. Their best reliever, Andrew Kittredge, had to work two innings to get a save on Tuesday.

The Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games on grass, which is an off-surface for them. Stroman is solid. I prefer him at home against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen.

Yu Darvish can mix in a clinker with gems. But he's worth this short price at home against the Braves, who are going with Byrce Elder, their No. 6 starter.