The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10.

Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees.

Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA.

Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts.

The Brewers are running short on quality relief pitchers. They also are going against crafty, veteran lefty Rich Hill.

Yes, Hill is way over the hill. But the Brewers can't hit lefties. Milwaukee is 10-15 versus southpaws. The Brewers are last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against lefty pitching.

Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has an ERA worse than Hill's at 4.57. Rea's daytime ERA is 5.20.

The Pirates have been swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games.

The Braves have the best record in the National League. They just whipped the Marlins, 16-4, at home on Friday.

But too little respect is being given to the Marlins for today's game with a pitching matchup of Eury Perez versus Charlie Morton.

The Marlins have the third-best record in the National League. They would be the leader in two of baseball's six divisions.

Prior to Friday's loss, the Marlins had won seven consecutive road games.

Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA in day games, which this matchup is. Perez hasn't been scored upon during his last three starts spanning 21 innings.

Atlanta leads the majors in homers, Perez, however, has only surrendered two homers in his last eight starts.

The 39-year-old Morton has a 4.74 home ERA.

Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners.

Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS.

The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts.

Adam Wainwright is planning to retire following this season. He's been a great pitcher. I just wish he would have retired before this year because he's embarrassing his legacy.

The 41-year-old Wainwright has just one quality start in his last nine outings. His home ERA is 7.03. His ERA during his last three starts is 7.80.

The Astros are the better team. They get the check marks, too, when it comes to starting pitchers with J.P. France opposing Wainwright and in the bullpen.

The rookie France has been reliable. He has a 3.08 ERA in four starts this month.

The Astros' lineup received a needed jolt with the return of Jose Altuve. Meanwhile the Cardinals could be minus Nolan Arenado, who left Wednesday's game because of back tightness.

Miami is playing well. But I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park in a pitching matchup of lefty Jesus Luzardo versus Brayan Bello.

The Red Sox rank fourth in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.

Bello is emerging as one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has a 2.45 ERA during his last 10 starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his past three starts.

The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday.

The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts.

New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts.

So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here.

Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span.

The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th.

New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games.

German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts.

The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The good news about that is you can now buy low on Houston.

The 42-37 Astros should not be an underdog to the 33-45 Cardinals in a pitching matchup of Christian Javier against Miles Mikolas.

Javier is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Cardinals have never faced him. 

Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his past three starts. Mikolas has a 10.80 career ERA versus Houston in two starts.
The Cardinals beat the Astros on Tuesday, but still might not have their sea legs after having played a weekend series against the Cubs in London.

It' an added bonus for Houston if Jose Altuve returns to the lineup. 

The Phillies are a hot road team and they have a hot pitcher going. Both teams were idle on Monday. The Cubs, though, flew in from London where they played the Cardinals during the weekend. So jet lag could work against them.

All of this puts me on the Phillies as an action play since as of early Tuesday morning the Cubs had not formally announced their starting pitcher. Jameson Taillon is the projected starter, which would be another plus for Philadelphia. Taillon has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.71 ERA.

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine road games, averaging 6.6 runs and posting an .843 OPS during this span. They are looking for their seventh consecutive away victory.

After a slow start recovering from an elbow strain, Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has been brilliant in his last five starts with a 1.38 ERA.

Given their talent, the Cardinals could be baseball's biggest underachieving team at 32-45. Along with the Riddle of the Sphinx, Stonehenge and the Bermuda Triangle it is one of the great mysteries of the world why Oliver Marmol remains manager of the Cardinals.

I'm not going to look away from this gift horse. The Astros have Framber Valdez, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league, going against the Cardinals. Losers of six of their last seven home games, the Cardinals could be suffering from jet lag having just played the Cubs in London during the weekend.

Valdez has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only Shane McClanahan at 2.27. Valdez is in top form, too, with a 4-1 record and 1.50 ERA in his last six starts. Valdez has made 15 starts this season. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 11 of those games. The Cardinals have never faced him.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is in line to start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2-11 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five career starts versus Houston. The Astros are 12-8 versus southpaw starters.

This is an action play for me just in case Montgomery doesn't start.

I priced this game much higher, so I'm on the Giants. San Francisco is rolling winning 12 of its last 13 games.

I trust Giants starter Anthony DeScalafani more than Arizona's Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.31 ERA.

San Francisco's offense is underrated. The Giants rank in the top 10 in a number of categories including, runs, homers, on base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Diamondbacks have lost 23 of their last 28 road games in San Francisco.

Cleveland should remember Corbin Burnes. The last time Burnes faced the Guardians in Cleveland he combined with Josh Hader to throw a no-hitter. That was two seasons ago.

Burnes faces the Guardians today and the price is right to back him. Burnes hasn't performed at his Cy Young Award level of the past couple of seasons. But he's still darn effective with four straight quality road starts and a 1.15 season WHIP.

The Guardians are last in homers, 27th in runs and have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls. Burnes is backed by elite closer Devin Williams, who is rested.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has a 2.67 ERA. However, that hides Civale's current form - which is not good. Civale has given up seven walks and three homers during his past two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. This was against the A's and Padres. Oakland is last in runs, batting average and OPS. San Diego has a below average offense, too.

The Brewers had outscored the Guardians by 26 runs in winning four straight against them until losing, 4-2, on Saturday.

Just twice since May 28 have the Tigers won consecutive games. They nipped the Twins, 3-2, on Saturday. I don't see Detroit beating Minnesota again today in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Michael Lorenzen.

The Twins have given up an average of just two runs during their last four games. Ober is an underrated pitcher with a 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that is 29th in runs and OPS and 28th in homers.

Lorenzen has a 4.00 ERA on the season. During his past three starts, Lorenzen has a 6.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

The Mets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost 10 of their last 14 games. The buy sign is on here for the Mets because Max Scherzer gets the start.

In Max we trust.

Scherzer got back on track in his last start, holding the Astros to one run on four hits in eight innings while striking out eight and allowing only one walk. The Mets easily won that game, 11-1.

This could be a bullpen game for the Phillies starting Cristopher Sanchez. He's made just two appearances failing to reach five innings either time. Sanchez had a 5.63 ERA in 40 innings with the Phillies last season.

Despite Friday's loss to the Phillies, the Mets still have defeated Philadelphia in 17 of the past 21 meetings.

Seattle is struggling on the road. Seattle struggles at Yankee Stadium. Seattle is struggling to score runs.

So the price is right to ride the Yankees as they look to sweep this three-game series having beaten George Kirby and Luis Castillo the past two days.

Mariners starter Bryan Woo is a drop down from Kirby and Castillo. Woo is a high strikeout pitcher, but he has a 7.30 ERA in his three starts this season.

Seattle is 3-12 in its last 15 road games. New York has dominated the Mariners at Yankee Stadium, beating them 14 of the past 18 times there.

Yankees starter Domingo German has been pitching better. He's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. The Yankees have a deep bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

The Mariners have scored more than three runs only once in their last six games. They are averaging just 2.5 runs during this period.

Remember when the Pirates opened the season going 20-9?

I don't either.

Pittsburgh is back to its usual bottom feeding ways. The Pirates are 14-30 since then. They are the coldest team in baseball with nine straight losses.

Miami is 22-15 at home and starting Braxton Garret, who has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Pirates have scored just 11 runs in their last seven games.

Right-hander Mitch Keller gets the start for Pittsburgh. Keller has cooled off, too, after a promising start. He has a 6.14 ERA during his last five starts. As a staff, the Pirates have a 5.54 ERA this month.

The Marlins are 7-1 the past eight times they've faced a righty at home.

The Giants have won nine in a row, including the first two games of this series. But they are tempting fate. They won the series opener in extra innings and then nipped San Diego, 4-3, last night in the ninth inning when elite closer Josh Hader walked in the winning run.

Now the Giants are going the bullpen route with Ryan Walker serving as the opener of what will be a parade of relievers.

I'll take Yu Darvish and Hader on the backend knowing he won't lack motivation.

The Padres have stranded runners all season. That's continued in this series with San Diego leaving 18 baserunners in 19 innings.

I see that getting turned around here while Darvish provides the Padres a strong starting pitching edge.

I respect the Dodgers' lineup. I don't respect Michael Grove, their starting pitcher today, and their bullpen. LA relievers have the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.01.

Grove returns from the minors to make his seventh start for the Dodgers. He has yet to produce a quality start. Grove is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA.

The Dodgers will have to deal with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who gets the start here. He's 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

LA edged the Angels, 2-0, last night behind Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have lost the past six times following a victory.

The Twins are reeling. Fortunately they have Sonny Gray on the mound.

Gray has a 1.96 ERA in eight home starts this season. He's surrendered just one home run in 76 innings.

Minnesota is the better defensive team and has a lower bullpen ERA than Boston.

Garrett Whitlock draws the start for Boston. He's been pitching better, but he's at his worst when pitching on the road at night. His away ERA is 5.31. His night ERA is 5.24.

So look for the Twins to find their way here thanks in large part to Gray.

We've seen how this matchup plays out before. Marcus Stroman went against Johan Oviedo last Thursday. The Cubs won, 7-2.

I don't see anything changing.

The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Pirates are on a seven-game losing streak.

Stroman has won his last six starts spanning 41 2/3 innings. His ERA is 1.51 during this stretch.

The Pirates are swinging cold bats. They've scored only eight runs in their last five games.

Oviedo has a 4.40 ERA. Pittsburgh's bullpen has the highest ERA during the last two weeks.

George Kirby is a nice young pitcher for Seattle. But he's trumped by Gerrit Cole. The price is right to back Cole and the Yankees at home.

The price on the Yankees is so low because New York just got swept by the Red Sox in Boston. That was the Yankees' fourth straight loss.

But following yesterday's off-day, look for the Yankees to be up for this game with their ace, Cole, on the mound.

Cole has held foes to two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. He is 6-3 lifetime against Seattle with a 2.25 ERA in 11 career starts.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.96 and is rested.

The Mariners are playing their first road game in nine days. They have lost 10 of their past 13 away games. The Mariners also have a dismal history at Yankee Stadium losing in 12 of their last 16 games there.

The Reds are sizzling. They have won eight in a row and 11 of their last 13.

The Reds are getting tremendous production and emotion from younger players, including rookies Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.

Colorado has the second-worst record in the National League. They are 13-26 away from Coors Field.

I don't see Austin Gomber slowing down the Reds. He has a 7.29 ERA and shouldn't even be in a big league rotation.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson. He faced the Rockies on May 16 and held them to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings during a 3-1 victory.

The Marlins are playing well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 games. That's pushed them up to a season-best 10 games above .500.

Now the Marlins return to Miami where they have won 11 of the last 13 times. They draw the disappointing Blue Jays, who are 3-6 in their last nine games. Toronto is off a demoralizing Sunday loss to the Rangers in which they blew a six-run lead.

This will be Toronto's seventh straight road game. The Blue Jays will be starting righthander Jose Berrios, who is pitching much better lately. Berrios, however, has been more effective when pitching at home where his ERA is 2.37 compared to 3.79 on the road. The Blue Jays also are likely to be minus injured catcher Alejandro Kirk.

The Marlins are 14-3 (82 percent) during their last 17 interleague games when facing a righty starter.

Bryan Hoeing is set to make his third start of the year for Miami. He has a 1.54 home ERA. Hoeing will be backed by setup man Tanner Scott and closer A.J. Puk, both of whom were rested on Sunday.

I want the Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin going for me after they were embarrassed at home, 15-0, by the Giants on Saturday.

The Dodgers are a remarkable 13-0 at home after being shut out the previous game.

Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's been dominant at Dodger Stadium with a 3-0 mark and 1.66 ERA.

"...he's as good as anyone,'' Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said about Gonsolin when Gonsolin is healthy.

The Dodgers are 22-13 at home.

This is more than a fair price to back Jon Gray and the Rangers, who are 23-13 at home. The Rangers have hit the second most home runs at home.

Texas is 6-1 in Gray's past seven starts. During this span, Gray has a 0.84 ERA.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has a 14.59 day time ERA. He got shelled in his last start.

Come on down because the price is right to back the Guardians and their ace pitcher, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is back to his elite ways, giving up only one run on eight hits during his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He shut out the Astros for seven innings during his last start this past Sunday in a 5-0 victory. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 the past four times they've faced a righty starter at home.

The Guardians get to face southpaw Tommy Henry, who has a 4.86 ERA. Unlike Bieber, Henry is not in good form. Henry has surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks during his last two starts spanning nine innings. The Guardians are 7-1 in their last eight games against a lefty starter.

Cleveland also carries a huge bullpen edge ranking No. 2 in relief pitching ERA at 3.04 compared to Arizona, which is 17th at 4.09.

The Padres can take their place among the baseball underachievers this season. San Diego is below .500 on the year and below .500 at home. 

San Diego is off a 5-0 Wednesday home victory against Cleveland thanks to seven shutout innings from Michael Wacha, who has been the hottest pitcher since the start of May with a 0.91 ERA.

But now the Padres drop down from Wacha to Ryan Weathers. Cleveland is pitching promising rookie Logan Allen.

The Padres are 2-7 the past nine times at home following a home win. 

Allen is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA. He has 51 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. Allen has been at his finest on the road with a 2-1 record and 1.90 ERA. Allen is backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only the Yankees. 

Weathers, in his third big league season, will be making his 20th career start. His ERA's are 5.32, 9.82 and 4.93 this season. Weathers is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Scoring runs is the issue with the Guardians. They rank in the bottom-three in runs, OPS and homers. The Padres, however, rate 28th in batting average and 22nd in runs. 

Cleveland was averaging six runs per game during its last seven games before running into a hot Wacha last night.

Kudos to the Phillies for halting the Diamondbacks' six-game win streak on Tuesday.

But I see Arizona starting a new win streak today pitching Merrill Kelly against Ranger Suarez.

The Diamondbacks are one of the hottest teams in baseball - and they have been all season tied for the third-best record in the league.

Arizona is 7-1 in Kelly's last eight starts. Kelly is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season.

Suarez has started to pitch better, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter not in Kelly's class. Suarez has a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Diamondbacks faced Suarez last month and got to him for five runs in five innings. Suarez has a 6.35 ERA in 28 1/3 career innings versus Arizona.

The Diamondbacks rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They have scored at least five runs in seven of their past eight games.

Even with their Tuesday victory, the Phillies are just 14-23 on the road. They are 4-13 during their last 17 games at Arizona.

Idle on Monday, the Brewers have to be anxious to get back to playing after becoming the first team swept by the A's this season.

I like the Brewers' chances here - and the underdog price - with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burns has started to resemble his previous Cy Young Award form during his past three starts with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers have an elite closer, too, in Devin Williams. So it's nice to know that the Brewers should be getting at least eight quality pitched innings.

Burnes has a 2.45 ERA in 18 1/3 lifetime innings against the Twins with 29 strikeouts.

Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez has pitched poorly in three of his last five starts. He has a 5.40 ERA during his past three outings.

The Twins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery gets the start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 0-10 in Montgomery's last 10 starts. The Reds faced Montgomery on May 22. They got to him for four runs on seven hits and three walks in four innings. The Reds have the seventh-highest batting average against left-handed pitching.

Cincinnati starter Ben Lively is below-the-radar. He has a 3.03 ERA. He faced the Cardinals on May 24 and gave up two runs on five hits in six innings while striking out eight and walking two.

The Reds should enter this series with confidence having just taken two of three from the Dodgers.

The Cardinals have yet to get turned around. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. St. Louis is averaging 2.5 runs in its last five games.

The Dodgers have lost three in a row and are starting Noah Syndergaard. So I don't believe they should be favored in this price range.

Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, have robbed Syndergaard of his once feared fastball and effectiveness. He has a 6.54 ERA. He's made 11 starts and won only once. Syndergaard has allowed multiple runs in nine consecutive starts when pitching more than one inning.

"I would give away my hypothetical first-born to be the old me again,'' Syndergaard has lamented.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson, who will be making his fourth big league start. He held the Brewers to three runs - two of which were earned - on five hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start five days ago.

This is an exciting time for the Reds with the call-up of infielder Elly De La Cruz, their No. 1 prospect and one of the best in baseball.

This is an action play for me based on the Cubs' cold bats and poor road record.

If you discount a 7-1 win against the Padres two games ago, the Cubs have scored eight runs in their last six games.

Chicago has lost 15 of its last 20 road games.

The Angels own a winning home mark. They are facing righthander Hayden Wesneski, who has a 4.81 ERA. The Angels are 16-7 the last 23 times at home when going against a righty starter.

I don't like Angels starter Tyler Anderson. But he should be able to hold his own at home against a cold Cubs lineup.

How good have the surprising Texas Rangers been this season? Try 38-20 with an MLB-best plus 152 run differential.

The Rangers have won 12 of their last 15 games. They have Martin Perez starting for them against Adam Wainwright and a slumping, underachieving Cardinals team that is 10 games below .500 and has dropped five of their last six games.

Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA. He's also been great during interleague competition with a lifetime 1.59 ERA in nine starts. St. Louis is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 10 games.

Wainwright is showing his 41 years. He has a 6.15 ERA, which balloons up to 7.59 when pitching on the road. He faces a Texas lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average while ranking No. 2 in OPS.

This is a huge mismatch not fully reflected in this low lay price.

The Giants are playing well winning 12 of their last 18 games. The price is right to back them at home against Baltimore.

Tyler Wells gets the start for the Orioles. He hasn't been in good form with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts.

The Giants are starting Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 2.90 day time ERA. The Giants' bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball during the last 30 days.

The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. They aren't likely to have good-looking rookie third baseman Gunnar Henderson. He has a back injury.

I don't like to go against the Astros. But I'll do it when I can get a plus price on Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani is having another MVP-caliber season. He's 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. He leads the majors in opponent batting average at .155, ranks No. 2 in WHIP at 0.95 and has the fourth-most strikeouts.

The Angels are in a frustrating, mad mood after losing to the Astros, 5-2, yesterday. They stranded 13 runners and got hosed by the umpires on certain calls.

Lefty Framber Valdez will be on the hill for Houston. He's good, but his statistics are padded because of his last three starts. Those starts came against the A's twice and Cubs. The Angels rank in the top-seven against southpaws in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Can the Cubs actually sweep the Rays? Nope. Tampa Bay hasn't been swept in a series all season and I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Zack Eflin versus lefty Justin Steele.

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in games started by Eflin, who is pitching his best ball. Steele started well, but is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays have won eight of 11 games versus lefties this season.

The Rays are the best offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are averaging 2.1 runs during their last six games.

I'm surprised the Giants aren't laying a price. They should be given how these teams have been playing.

San Francisco is playing its best ball, winners of nine of its last 11 games. Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The Giants have dominated the first two games of this series, outscoring the Brewers, 20-1.

The Brewers are without their catalyst now as shortstop Willy Adames will go on the injured list after being struck on the side of the head by a foul ball while inside the dugout during the Giants' 15-1 Friday victory. It was extremely unnerving for the Brewers to see that injury.

I give the Giants the pitching edge, too, in this matchup of Logan Webb versus Corbin Burnes. Webb has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Burnes is enduring a down season so far by his lofty status with a 3.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Milwaukee has a losing record in Burnes' starts this season.

Patrick Corbin may have been the worst starting pitcher in the majors last season. This season that dishonor can be bestowed on Jordan Lyles.

The two are scheduled to tangle on Friday. Lyles is favored for the first time this season in 11 starts.

Mark me down for Corbin and the underdog Nationals.

Not only are the Royals 0-10 in Lyles' 10 starts, but all but one of those defeats have come by more than one run. Lyles has permitted four or more runs in nine consecutive games. He has a 7.15 ERA. He's surrendered 14 homers, most in the league. Lyles can't expect to be bailed out by a Kansas City bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA.

The Nationals are going to put the ball in play. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league and the fourth-highest batting average. Washington is averaging 5.2 runs during its past 10 games.

Corbin has bounced back from being a laughingstock to gaining some of the respectability he had five years ago. Corbin has a 2.88 ERA in four starts this month going at least six innings in each outing with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Corbin encounters a Royals team averaging just 2.7 runs in their last nine games. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-five in runs batting average and OPS.

The White Sox have won their last three series. I expect them to even this series up at 1-1. 

Lance Lynn goes for Chicago. Lynn struggled out of the gate, but he's gotten things turned around. Lynn has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He is 7-3 career-wise versus Detroit with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. 

The White Sox should score often against overmatched Joey Wentz, who is 1-4 with a 7.45 ERA. Wentz probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. However, the Tigers are forced to keep using him being down injured starters Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull and Beau Brieske. 

This is an easy handicap. The Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last eight games and have lost five in a row. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball. 

The Rays are throwing their top pitching prospect, Taj Bradley. He's looked good in his four big league starts this season with a 3.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Bradley has 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays are pitching Jose Berrios, who is a fade on the road where he's 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA. Berrios is 2-4 career-wise versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. 

Remember that 20-9 start by the Pirates? Yeah, I don't either anymore. Pittsburgh has reverted back to its losing ways going 4-13 in its last 17 games.

I don't see the Pirates getting back to winning either taking on the much improved Rangers.

Texas is 29-17. That's tied for the third-best winning percentage in baseball. The Rangers have a plus 108 run difference, which is the second-best mark. They rank No. 1 in runs and batting average and are second in OPS. They also have a hot Corey Seager back after he missed 31 games with a strained hamstring.

This isn't pleasant news for Luis Oritz, who gets the start for Pittsburgh. He's 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA and a hideous 2.38 WHIP.

The Rangers are going with Dane Dunning, who is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The Pirates have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games.

Step aside please, I'm boarding the crowded fade Padres train.

San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine games and 1-5 the past six times being favored. The Padres are minus injured Manny Machado and have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Not only are they last in batting average and 26th in runs, but they are batting .196 with runners in scoring position. No team in baseball history has finished with a batting average of less than .200 with runners in scoring position for an entire season.

Boston, by contrast, ranks in the top three in runs, batting average and OPS.

I'd certainly give an edge to the Red Sox, too, in starting pitching where Chris Sale goes against Joe Musgrove.

Sale is showing signs of returning to his once-dominant form going 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.73 WHIP during his last three starts.

Musgrove is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts. One of those starts was in Mexico City where pitchers didn't stand a chance in that bandbox stadium and high altitude. But even if you discount that start, Musgrove still would have an ERA above 4.00. He's surrendered five homers in 19 innings.

I like the Twins here and the price is right to back them. Minnesota has its new-found ace, Joe Ryan, going with a rested bullpen. The Twins were idle Thursday. They stay in Los Angeles having just faced the Dodgers, while the Angels concluded a seven-game, seven-day road trip with a one-run victory against the Orioles on Thursday.

Ryan is in early Cy Young Award competition with a 6-1 record, 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. 

Angels starter Reid Detmers is 0-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in contrast to Ryan's outstanding numbers. Detmers faced the Twins last season and was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA.

I'm going to lay a small road price to get behind the Phillies as they try to avoid being swept by the Giants. 

The Phillies are overdue to produce more runs. They've scored just six runs in their last three games going a mind-boggling 1-for-33 with runners in scoring position during this span.

I see the Phillies breaking through against struggling journeyman-type Ross Stripling, who has a 7.42 ERA in his last three starts. 

Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker usually beats bad teams, which the Giants are at 19-23. Walker's teams are 19-4 (83 percent) in his last 23 starts when he's faced a sub .500 opponent. The Giants are 2-6 in their last eight games against a righty starter. 

The Guardians are seven games better than the disappointing 14-28 White Sox and have their ace going, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is off to a good start with a 3-1 record and 2.61. The same can't be said for the White Sox, who are 9-20 in their last 29 home games and could be starting Lance Lynn, who has been awful with a 1-5 record, 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

The Guardians, who have a winning road record, rate a strong edge with Bieber on the hill no matter who the White Sox pitch today. Bieber is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 17 career starts versus the White Sox.

The White Sox have been dealing with injuries to key players all season. Out for the White Sox are Elvis Andrus, Eloy Jimenez and possibly Yasmani Grandal.

The Angels nipped the Guardians, 5-4, Friday night by scoring twice in the ninth inning. That was just their second road win against the Guardians in 23 games in Cleveland during the past eight years.

Now the Angels face another long-standing angle - beating Cal Quantrill. The Guardians are 21-3 for 88 percent in Quantrill's last 24 regular season starts. Quantrill is off his best performance of the season, too, shutting out the Twins for seven innings while giving up only one hit.

The Angels are starting Reid Detmers, who is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA. This will be Detmers' sixth start of the year. He's turned in just one quality start.
I thought the Guardians would come a solid favorite here instead of being in the pick and plus range. So I'm on Cleveland.

I'm seeing positive signs now with Chris Sale, who gets the start here. The seven-time All-Star is off a 5-3 win against the Phillies. He struck out 10 in six innings. Sale's fastball was back up to 99 mph. He hasn't thrown that hard in five years.

Opposing Sale is Steven Matz. Fading Matz this season has proven quite profitable. St. Louis is 1-6 in his seven starts. Matz has a 5.70 ERA. He has a career 5.75 ERA versus the Red Sox in four starts.

Boston is five games above .500. The Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league at 14-25.

The Red Sox are 101-49 the past 150 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 percentage.

Current form, pitching matchup and a strong situational element make the Dodgers an easy choice here.

LA is playing its best ball winning 10 of its past 12 games. San Diego is 1-4 in its last five games.

The pitching matchup is slow-starting Blake Snell versus Dustin May. Snell is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA on the road this season. May is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA this season. That ERA gets reduced even more to 2.20 if you go by just his last three starts.

The Dodgers are rested after being idle yesterday, while the Padres are traveling from Minnesota where they just concluded a three-game series against the Twins that finished on Thursday.

LA has defeated San Diego in 38 of the past 52 times it has hosted the Padres.

Maybe, just maybe, the buy sign is on for the White Sox. Well, it is at least for this game in a pitching matchup of Dylan Cease versus Zack Greinke.

Cease is off to a slow start with a 2-1 record and 4.58 ERA. He was an elite pitcher last year and he still rates two-to-three levels higher than Greinke, who is just an innings-eater at this late stage of his career. Greinke has a 5.25 ERA. He's been bad in four of his last five starts. Cease has a 2.58 career ERA against Kansas City in 12 starts.

The White Sox have been a monster disappointment at 10-22 as they begin a seven-game road trip.

Lance Lynn certainly hasn't helped. Neither has Chicago's bullpen. The White Sox are 0-6 in Lynn's starts this season. Lynn has a 7.16 ERA. He's giving up 4.1 walks and 2.2 homers per nine innings. The Reds average more than five runs a game at home. White Sox relievers have the second-highest ERA at 6.47.

Oh, yes, the White Sox have also lost eight consecutive road games.

Promising Hunter Greene gets the start for Cincinnati. He's proving he's more than just a tremendous strikeout pitcher with a 2.89 ERA. Greene has yielded just one earned run during his last 14 innings. He's averaging 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

The White Sox rank 28th in road on-base percentage at .284. They are averaging just 3.6 runs when playing on the road.

The Braves are not a team I normally like to go against. But I find value on the home 'dog Marlins.

Miami has a winning record on the season. The Marlins are 10-7 at home. 

The Marlins had won four in a row until the Braves shut them out, 6-0, on Tuesday. 

I see the Marlins coming back to win today's game in a starting pitching matchup of Kyle Wright versus Braxton Garrett.

Wright led the majors in wins last year going 21-5. He hasn't been that effective this season with an 0-1 record, a 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Garrett has been the better pitcher with a 1-0 mark, 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Miami is 4-0 in Garrett's last four starts, including a 5-4 victory against the Braves last week when these two pitchers went against each other.  

The Astros host the Phillies in the middle game of their 3-game World Series rematch. Aaron Nola beat the Astros, 3-1, in Friday night's opener.

It has been 18 games since the Astros dropped consecutive games. They have won by an average of 5.3 runs following each of their past six losses.

Even with that victory, the Phillies are just 12-28 in their last 40 interleague road games. The Astros are 66-31 in their last 97 home games.

The Astros have the far superior bullpen and I give them the checkmark, too, in starting pitchers with a matchup of Zach Wheeler versus Christian Javier.

Wheeler is off to a slow start with a 4.73 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Javier has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Houston is 4-1 in Javier's five starts.

The Astros have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA at 2.90. Philadelphia relievers rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.65.

These two teams each won 101 games last year. But the Braves are the better team through this first month of this season.

The Mets just got through losing a series to the lowly Nationals. New York is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mets are giving up an average of 5.8 runs in their last five games.

The Braves enter the opener of this series disgusted and mad after blowing a 4-run ninth inning leading against the Marlins on Thursday.

The pitching matchup of Max Fried versus David Peterson greatly favors Atlanta.

Fried was the National League Cy Young Award runner-up last season. He is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA this season. Peterson is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA. He has a 4.50 career ERA versus the Braves in eight appearances, including seven starts.

The Braves have won eight of their last nine road games.

The Yankees are 2-3 against the Twins this season. They just lost, 6-1, to the Twins and former teammate Sonny Gray on Monday. The Yankees have averaged only 3.1 runs in their last dozen games while hitting just .199 during this time frame.

So why get involved with the Yankees today?

It's tough to turn down a plus price on New York when Nestor Cortes is on the hill. The Yankees are 8-1 this season when Cortes and Gerrit Cole have started. They are 5-9 in their other games.

The Yankees also have dominated the Twins despite Monday's loss going 116-43 (73 percent) versus the Twins the past 21 years.

Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan, who is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA. Nothing against Ryan. But I prefer Cortes, who has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Cortes hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 16 starts.

This is my MLB Game of the Week.

The Texas Rangers lead the AL West with a 14-8 record and have their second-best pitcher, Martin Perez, starting for them today. The Reds have the third-worst record in the National League at 8-15. They are starting Luke Weaver, who is on the comeback trail and has a long way to go to regain respectability following a serious arm injury.

It's actually an advantage for the Rangers to be playing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park because it's one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and the Rangers have the far superior offense.

Texas has scored the second-most runs in baseball. The Rangers also rank fifth in batting average and are eighth in homers. The Reds have a bottom-10 offense. They have the third-fewest homers, too.

Perez is a late bloomer. The 31-year-old earned his first All-Star honor last year after 11 years in the majors. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts. The Rangers' bullpen blew Monday's game to the Reds in a 7-6 loss. But that shouldn't happen again. Texas entered this series with the second-best bullpen ERA.

The Reds had lost six in a row prior to Monday. This will be Weaver's second start of the season after throwing just 35 2/3 innings last season, mostly in relief. Weaver gave up four runs in six innings against the Pirates in his start this year, giving up two homers.

Look for the Rangers to bounce back here behind Perez and underrated offense.

The Giants are proving not to be very good with an 8-13 record. One problem for them is their inability to win a series opener. San Francisco has played six series this season and lost Game 1 in five of them.

There has been no winning consistency either with the Giants. They are 1-8 following a victory.

The Cardinals are off to a slow start, too, at 9-13. But they are the superior team and I like their starting pitcher better in a matchup of Jordan Montgomery versus Alex Cobb. Montgomery's 4.84 ERA is misleading as he's had three strong outings in four starts.

Cobb has a 2.79 ERA, but has yet to win. Cobb doesn't figure to be helped by a bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen, by contrast, ranks in the top 10 in ERA.

This comes down to value again for me. St. Louis is off to a slow start. But the Mariners also are below .500.

The line is high because Seattle is starting Luis Castillo. He's off to a huge start going 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. I've always considered the streaky Castillo better than average rather than great. I think he's overrated. Castillo, a former Reds player, has a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts versus St. Louis.

Castillo's numbers are due to go up while Cardinals starter, Miles Mikolas, numbers are due to go down. The righthander has an 8.10 ERA. Mikolas had his best outing of the season in his last start, however. He held the surprising 14-7 Pirates to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 2-6 the past eight times they've faced a righty starter at home.

I find this a fair price to lay in order to back the superior team and pitcher in a good situational spot.

The 12-7 Mets have won six of their last seven games. They have a strong history against weak teams, which the 6-11 Giants are. New York is 43-19 (69 percent) the past 62 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400 percent.

The pitching matchup pits Kodai Senga against Sean Manaea. Senga has looked good in three starts going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings. Manaea hasn't been as impressive with a 4.76 ERA.

The Giants are off an extra inning victory against the Marlins yesterday. They are 0-7 the past seven times following a victory. The Giants also had to make the long cross-country flight from South Florida to Northern California crossing three time zones. The Mets, on the other hand, already are in California having just concluded a successful series against the Dodgers.

Three main reasons why I want the Astros going for me here: Line value, Houston home off a loss and fading Jose Berrios on the road.

The Blue Jays beat the Astros, 4-2, on Tuesday. The Astros have won by 4, 7, 6 and 7 runs following their past four defeats. Long-term, the Astros are 42-15 after losing their previous game.

Berrios had a 6.36 road ERA last season. He has an 11.17 road ERA this season in starts against the Angels and light-hitting Royals. Berrios has a 4.81 ERA in seven career starts versus Houston.

The Astros are going with Luis Garcia, who has a 4.00 career ERA against Toronto in three starts.

The Braves have won seven in a row. They are the best team in the National League. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games. They've scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves, too.

So I like the Braves a lot here.

Spencer Strider goes against lefty Blake Snell.

Strider is an emerging star in his second season. His career numbers are 13-5 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 229-to-54 strikeouts to walk ratio.

Snell traditionally begins slow. He's really struggling this season. Snell has given up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, on 18 hits and 10 walks in his last three starts spanning 13 innings. Opponents are batting .327 against him during this span. The Braves are 5-1 versus lefty starters this season. They have the second-highest batting average against southpaw pitching at .324.

The Braves just saw Snell 12 days ago and got to him for four runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings.

I want the Astros off a 9-1 home loss to the Rangers. Houston is 41-15 (73 percent) the past 56 times following a loss.

And the Astros are an underdog here.

The Blue Jays just finished a big three-game series against the Rays. So their concentration could be a little off.

Toronto holds a starting pitching edge with Kevin Gausman versus Christian Javier.

Gausman is an elite pitcher. However, he has a losing lifetime record against the Astros with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts.

Grayson Rodriguez has a high ceiling for Baltimore. But Rodriguez hasn't shown he's ready for the majors during his first two starts this season. He has a 6.75 ERA. 

The White Sox are going with their ace, Dylan Cease, who is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA. Cease was dominant last season going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. He has 24 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings this season. 

I want Cease going for me at this price. Rodriguez is a fade until he proves himself. 

There's a huge class difference between these two teams. So I find this a short price to lay.

Promising Bryce Elder makes his 12th career start for Atlanta. He hasn't allowed a run in 12 1/3 innings this season. Elder faces an anemic Royals offense that ranks in the bottom three in runs and batting average.

The Royals are pitching lefty Kris Bubic, who had a 5.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP last season. Bubic has pitched much better in his first two starts, but now encounters a hot Ronald Acuna and a Braves team that is batting .336 against lefties.

Maybe my trust is misplaced. But I've always been high on White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech especially now that he's healthy. Kopech has bad early numbers - 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA - but the buy sign is on for me to back Kopech and the White Sox at home at this price.

Kopech is coming off a well-pitched game. He allowed one run on two hits in six innings against the Pirates this past Sunday. Kopech has been solid against the Orioles with a 3.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight innings.

I'm not a fan of Orioles starter Kyle Gibson. He had an ERA above 5.00 with the Phillies the previous two seasons and a 5.35 ERA with the Rangers in 2020.

Both starting pitchers, Bailey Falter for Philadelphia and Nick Lodolo for Cincinnati, have looked good in the early going this season. But the Phillies own the superior bullpen, catch the Reds in their first home game following a six-game road trip that ended yesterday, and are the underdogs.

So given these factors, I'll take a plus price on the Phillies, who I regard as the better team.

The Phillies have defeated the Reds in six of their last seven meetings.

I shed no tears whenever the Dodgers lose as they did to the Diamondbacks, 12-8, on Saturday.

But I do look to play on the Dodgers in their next game if the price is right. This price is right.

The Dodgers are 53-23 following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-8 following a victory.

Slight edge to the Dodgers in the starting pitching department with Michael Grove facing Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.40 ERA.

This is an action play for me, though. The Diamondbacks look improved, but the Dodgers still are the far superior team. The lay price is low enough to get involved with the Dodgers in this obvious bounce back spot.

The Nationals are one of the worst teams in baseball - especially when facing a lefty starter.

That will be the case in this matchup where Washington goes against southpaw Austin Gomber.

The Nationals were 16-40 against lefties last year. They are 1-5 this season versus them. 

The Rockies are tough at Coors Field. They had the highest home batting average and slugging percentage of any team last season. 

Colorado draws Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA this season. The Nationals have lost 36 of their last 53 road games. 

The handicap here is not complicated. The Astros are underdogs. That's a rarity and one I'm not going to pass up. 

This is the first time this season Houston is not favored. The Astros won the last five times they were 'dogs last season.  

Houston also has defeated Minnesota during the past six meetings.

The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus Sonny Gray. I'll take Urquidy backed by a superior bullpen, but this is an action play. 

The Astros are 6-0 in their last six road games when facing a righty starter. They also are 12-4 the past 16 times going against a righty starter. 

The Yankees have long had the Orioles' number. New York is 46-18 during its last 64 games against Baltimore, including 12-7 last year.

The Orioles have matched the Yankees' power in the early going so far. The difference is on the mound. The Yankees have a team ERA of 2.33 compared to the Orioles' 5.40 ERA.

New York has owned the Orioles in Baltimore, beating them 36 of the past 51 times there.

I see that continuing in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt versus Dean Kremer.

Schmidt has a 2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 career innings versus Baltimore. He's backed by the superior bullpen.

Kremer is off to a bad start. He surrendered five runs on six hits in three innings against the Red Sox in his first start of the season this past Saturday. Lifetime, Kremer is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA in six starts versus the Yankees.

The Dodgers aren't likely to match their major league-best 111 wins of last season. They don't have departed Trea Turner, Justin Turner and out for the season injured star pitcher Walker Buehler.

But you know what? The Dodgers are still darn good and they still have outstanding starting pitchers. They are a team either worth playing on, or passing.

I'm on the Dodgers here in this early revenge spot

Dustin May is a perfect example of the Dodgers' deep starting pitching staff. He goes against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly. It's a repeat of the team's game from last Friday when the two starting pitchers went up against each other.

May, on the comeback trail after missing much of the past two seasons following Tommy John surgery, displayed his vast potential throwing seven shutout innings allowing only three hits. Kelly couldn't get out of the fourth inning having allowed three hits and four walks.

Yet the Diamondbacks won, 2-1, thanks to a two-run eighth inning homer by pinch hitter Kyle Lewis against Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia.

The Dodgers were minus $1.87 in that game. Now the price is more reasonable to get the vastly superior team.

Clayton Kershaw has had trouble with the Diamondbacks, but LA is 20-7 during its last 27 games played at Arizona.

May could be an emerging monster now that he's finally healthy. Kelly is a decent pitcher. However, he's facing a Dodgers offense that ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers with 13 in six games, is first in OPS and has scored the third-most runs.

The Diamondbacks, by contrast, rank 25th in runs, have hit only four homers and are batting just .224.

Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios all pitched poorly for the Blue Jays in their first starts of the season. Now it's Yusei Kikuchi's turn in the rotation. I don't expect much from him.

Why should I? Kikuchi was one of the worst starting pitchers in the American League with a 5.19 ERA last season. He's been tagged for 50 homers the past two seasons.

Yet the Blue Jays, losers of three in a row, are big favorites here.

I had the Royals as home underdogs yesterday and I'll ride them again today. Kansas City broke out of its hitting slump with a 9-5 win against Toronto on Monday.

Kris Bubic gets the start for Kansas City. He looked good during spring training going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings with 15 strikeouts during five appearances. He faced the Blue Jays once last year and gave up two unearned runs in seven innings.

The Phillies are struggling out of the gate losing their first four games. They are averaging four runs a game. The Yankees have already smacked nine homers in opening 3-1 while also drawing 19 walks. 

New York is tough to beat at Yankee Stadium going 59-25 during its last 84 home games. The Yankees went 26-15 versus lefties last season and face southpaw Matt Strahm. He is 4-10 with a 5.08 ERA in his career as a starter.

This is an important outing for Yankee starter Domingo German, who had a 3.61 ERA last season but has battled injuries. 

It has been four years since Jose Berrios was a good pitcher. He had his highest ERA of his career last season at 5.23.

Brady Singer, on the other hand, is an ascending pitcher. He was 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA last season. He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays in 11 innings.

The Royals have yet to win this season. A big reason for this is MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino opening a combined 1-for-29. Those are three promising players. They are all way overdue now to start producing.

So, given the starting pitching matchup and home field, I'll take the Royals at an underdog price.

Minus Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies are off to a slow start.

The Rangers should be improved this season. They are off to a fast start pounding the Phillies, 11-7 and 16-3, during the first two games of the series. The Rangers did this against Philadelphia's top two pitchers, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler.

Now the Rangers get to drop down in class to face Bailey Falter, while having Martin Perez go for them.

Perez was an underrated 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last season. He was Texas' top pitcher last season. Perez is backed by an upgraded Texas bullpen, too.

After nine mostly excellent seasons in Cleveland, Corey Kluber has entered journeyman land. The Red Sox are his fifth team in five years. I still like Kluber way more than Kyle Gibson, who draws the opening-day start for Baltimore versus Kluber.

Gibson had a 5.05 ERA with the Phillies last season and gave up 24 homers. That makes four years out of the past seven, Gibson's ERA has been above 5.00.

Kluber was 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA for Tampa Bay last year. He's 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA in seven lifetime starts at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are coming off a down season while the Orioles showed great improvement in 2022. Boston is just two years removed, though, from taking the Astros to six games in the American League Championship Series. The Red Sox finished five games above .500 at home last season.

Boston won't be reaching the ALCS again this season, but the Red Sox shouldn't be as bad as they were last year. New outfielder Masataka Yoshida looked good in the WBC and the bullpen was upgraded with the addition of several reliable relievers, headed by closer Kenley Jansen.

It usually takes a red-hot pitcher for a playoff team to advance to the World Series. The Padres have that in Joe Musgrove. And for good measure the Padres also have a sizzling closer, Josh Hader.

The pressure is on the Phillies in this Game 3 as this NLCS goes from San Diego to Philadelphia. The Padres came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the series at one apiece with an 8-5 victory this past Wednesday.

San Diego is 18-4 following an off-day. The Padres have Musgrove and a rested Hader going for them in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. He's been absolutely dominant during the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Hader is back to being an elite closer. He's struck out the last eight batters he's faced.

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen can't match that. Suarez has one playoff start, which came against the Braves. Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled him in that game after 3 1/3 innings after Suarez had given up three hits and five walks.

There are no secrets here at this late stage of the season. Aaron Nola is pitching well. Nothing against him. But I want Blake Snell going for me at this short price. The Padres haven't lost two in a row during their past 13 games. If the Padres lose here, they go to Philadelphia for three games down 0-2. 

Snell has playoff experience, which Nola doesn't. Snell has pitched in 11 postseason games and has a 2.89 ERA in those contests. 

Snell is pitching his finest since he won the Cy Young Award in 2018. How good has Snell been? Try this: Last six starts - five earned runs spanning 31 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts during this time frame. 

Yeah Yankees ace Gerrit Cole deserves to be favored in this Game 4 of the AL Division Series - but not nearly by this large of a margin. The value is with Cleveland and that's the way I'm going.

Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Guardians. And he's pitching at home. How important is that? Quantrill is 14-0 with a 2.88 ERA in 44 career games at Progressive Field. This includes 34 starts.

The Yankees are reeling. Aaron Boone could be on his way out and New York's bullpen can't be trusted. The Yankees blew a 5-3 ninth inning lead on Saturday. Aroldis Chapman isn't even on the playoff roster.

The Guardians' bullpen has been superb giving up just one earned run in 21 innings during the postseason.

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. But I don't think they should be favored in this game with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Blake Snell.

Gonsolin had a great year with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA. However - and this is a big however - he's thrown only two innings in the majors since Aug. 23 when he went on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Gonsolin figures to be rusty and on a pitch count putting a lot of pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that is largely untested in postseason action.

Snell is a solid pitcher. He enters this game in outstanding form with a 1.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. Snell has a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 39 2/3 lifetime innings against the Dodgers.

The Padres gained much needed confidence against this opponent by defeating the Dodgers in LA on Wednesday to even the series at 1-1.

There's no secrets at this late stage of the baseball season. The teams and pitchers are all good.

I just see a short lay price on getting the Braves at home down 1-0 in their National League Division Series.

The last time the defending world champion Braves lost on consecutive days at home was way back on April 23-24.

The Phillies got to a weakened Max Fried on Tuesday building a 7-1 lead. Yet the Braves almost pulled it out before losing, 7-6.

The pitching matchup today is Zach Wheeler versus Kyle Wright. This pro-Braves play isn't directed against Wheeler. Both are excellent pitchers.

It's based on the resilient Braves in bounce-back mode at what I see is a shorter-than-expected lay price. Atlanta is 42-13 in its last 55 home games.
That's a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Braves have defeated the Phillies 11 of the past 15 times they've hosted them.

I want the home Blue Jays going for me in this opening game of their playoff series against the Mariners. 

The Mariners haven't made a postseason appearance since 2001. So they lack playoff experience. I give a slight edge to Toronto in starting pitchers with Alek Manoah against Luis Castillo and a huge edge to the Blue Jays on offense.

Manoah is on a strong roll with a 0.94 ERA and 0.85 WHIP during his last seven starts. Castillo has a 3.17 ERA with the Mariners after coming from Cincinnati. I regard Castillo as a good pitcher. But I consider Manoah a great pitcher. 

The Mariners are below average offensively averaging 4.2 runs a game, which ranked them 18th. 

The Blue Jays scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They also finished with the highest batting average, third-best slugging percentage and OPS mark. 

I have far more confidence in Toronto's lineup than I do Seattle's. 

Just five days ago, Adrian Sampson faced the Reds. He held them to one run on three hits in seven innings. The Cubs won, 6-1. Chicago has won during each of Sampson's last three starts. His ERA is 1.42 during this span.

Sampson is flying below-the-radar. He's yielded only six earned runs during his last six starts.

The Reds managed a 3-2 victory against the Cubs on Tuesday. Cincinnati is 62-99. The Reds don't want to finish with 100 losses. But the Reds are in this position for a reason - they're terrible. The Tuesday win against the Cubs was just the Reds' third in their last 12 games.

Cincinnati hasn't broken the 3-run barrier in each of their last dozen games. The Reds are averaging two runs per game during this span.

So the Reds are likely going to need a tremendous pitching performance from starter Graham Ashcraft. I wouldn't count on that. Ashcraft is really struggling down the stretch with an 8.10 ERA in his past three starts. Ashcraft shouldn't expect much help from a Reds bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA in the majors.

It's going to be difficult for the Brewers to get excited about this game. They just got eliminated on Monday from playoff contention.

Milwaukee also is facing Zac Gallen. He's been one of the top pitchers during the second half of the season. Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Gallen's ERA during his last three starts is 2.21.

Contrast this with Brewers starter Eric Lauer. He has a 7.84 ERA during his past three starts. Gallen is an ace. Lauer, who is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA, is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.

The Brewers have been mediocre for quite a while now going 28-31 in their last 59 games.

Flying back home from the West Coast after a series with the Padres, the White Sox can't be too excited to wrap up a very disappointing season with this series against the Twins.

The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games. They have lost seven in a row at home.

Minnesota is in an excellent situational spot to beat the White Sox and their 36-year-old starter, Johnny Cueto, who has hit the wall with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has been below the radar. Ober has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. He has a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts and has dominated the White Sox in two starts this season with a 1-0 record and 0.73 ERA.

The Mariners are going hard to earn their first playoff spot in 21 years. The Rangers are playing the string out. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games.

Texas could be without shortstop Corey Seager, too. He's day-to-day with a bruised forearm. Seager leads Texas in homers with 32.

Rangers starter Jon Gray is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this year.

Seattle starter Marco Gonzalez is reliable at home where his ERA is 3.36.

This has been a crazy series so far with the Orioles winning, 14-8, on Monday and the Red Sox prevailing, 13-9, on Tuesday.

That was just the Red Sox's third win in their last 10 games.

The Orioles have lost seven fewer games than the Red Sox, who are headed for this first losing season under Alex Cora.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer could restore order. He's been fantastic in his last five starts with a 3-0 record and 2.16 ERA.

The Red Sox are going with Rich Hill, who is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA at home. The 42-year-old Hill could be hitting the wall. He has a 5.96 ERA during his last five starts.

Wednesday Free Play

Tigers minus $1.25 hosting Royals

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

Wrong team favored. The Orioles are seven games better than the Red Sox. Baltimore still is in the playoff hunt. The Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention with their 2-0 loss to the Yankees Sunday night.

Boston has lost five in a row. The Red Sox have no incentive. They had to play last night in New York and sit through a 98-minute rain delay. The Red Sox haven't played at home in eight days so their concentration could be off returning from being on the road.

The Orioles are still fighting. They've been the most profitable team from a betting standpoint. Baltimore just played a tough series against the Astros. This is a major step down in class.

The pitching matchup favors Baltimore, too. The Orioles are going with veteran Jordan Lyles, who is 11-11 with a 4.50 ERA. Lyles is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but he rates an edge on overmatched Boston rookie Connor Seabold, who is 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA. Seabold has never won in the majors. He's been tagged for 11 runs in his last two starts spanning 7 2/3 innings.

Since the start of June no team has played better than the Braves, who are 71-29 during their last 100 games.

However, the Braves are coming off a rare, sloppy performance, a 3-2 loss to the lowly Nationals on Wednesday. Look for Atlanta to bounce back today against the Phillies, losers of five of their last six games.

The Braves have clinched a playoff berth, but are chasing the Mets for the top spot in the NL East.

Not only are the Braves the superior team, but they hold a huge pitching edge with Max Fried going against Ranger Suarez.

Fried has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts. He is 6-2 on the road with a 2.60 ERA.

Suarez is 3-4 at home with a 4.70 ERA.

Memo to oddsmakers regarding the San Francisco Giants. This is 2022 not 2021. The Giants are a mere shell of the team that won 107 games last year. They are eight games below .500 this season. They have lost nine of their last 13 games and have bagged their season with morale at low ebb after just getting swept by the Dodgers.

The Giants should not be favored against the Rockies at Coors Fields with a pitching matchup of Jake Junis against Chad Kuhl.

Junis is 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA this season. His ERA goes up to 5.35 when pitching on the road. Coors Field is the best hitting park in the majors. Junis is not in good current form either, going 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kuhl is a bottom of the rotation type starter, too, but he's pitched respectfully at Coors with a 3-3 record and 4.67 ERA in 10 starts there this season. The Rockies have been huge money-makers during Kuhl's last 25 home starts going 17-8. The Giants have been swinging cold bats failing to reach five runs in 12 of their last 13 games.

Colorado has won seven of its last 10 games. The Rockies are 40-34 at home and have the highest home batting average at .284. The next closest team is the Red Sox, who bat .269 at Fenway Park.

Teams can't help but have high and lows during the long baseball season. The Yankees were experiencing a low point, but have since rebounded to win eight of their last 10 games. They are averaging eight runs a game during their last four games, all victories.

The Brewers looked like a solid playoff team entering August. But they are a scuffling 19-20 in their last 39 games.

The Yankees hold a starting pitching edge here with Frankie Montas facing Adrian Houser. New York also has a strong bullpen advantage. Yankee relief pitchers have a 2.94 ERA. That's the second-lowest ERA in the majors. The Brewers' bullpen ERA is 3.94, which ranks 16th. The Brewers' relief corps isn't nearly as good minus closer Josh Hader. Devin Williams is now their lone dependable reliever.

Oh, yes, the Yankees also have the most dangerous hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge. He leads the majors by a wide margin with 57 homers. Judge is batting .462 during his last 52 at bats and is on a 15-game on-base streak.

Montas has settled down after a rough patch when he first came to the Yankees. He has a 3.89 ERA. Houser is a borderline bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.61 ERA.

Both teams were idle Thursday. The Yankees' bullpen is fresh. New York is 21-8 following an off day.

I'm going to get behind the Orioles at a reasonable price facing Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters all season. 
The Orioles are battling for a wild-card spot. The Nationals have the worst record in the majors at 49-93. 

Corbin has done more than his share to saddle the Nationals with the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.06. Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.30 ERA. Washington has a bottom-10 bullpen. 

The Orioles are starting Tyler Wells, who is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA. Wells is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two appearances against the Nationals, including one start. Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said he won't be afraid to use Austin Voth and his top bullpen arms to secure this win since the Orioles are idle on Thursday. Baltimore has the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the league. 

The White Sox are feeling pretty good about themselves after humiliating the Twins, 13-0, on Saturday. Dylan Cease nearly threw a no-hitter coming within one out of the feat. It was a highly emotional victory for the White Sox because of Cease's great effort.

Kudos to Cease for his outstanding effort and tremendous season. But the Twins aren't facing Cease today. They draw Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the more disappointing pitchers this season with a 5.27 ERA. The White Sox are without a number of key batters, including Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. It remains to be seen if Luis Robert will return to the lineup. He's been in Florida for the birth of his second child.

The Twins are going with Dylan Bundy, who runs hot and cold. Bundy, though, has dominated the White Sox with a 6-0 career record. He's 2-0 versus the White Sox this season with a 2.35 ERA in three starts.

Giolito is in terrible form with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts.

The Nationals are the worst team in baseball. Oakland is playing better than Washington with three straight victories, including a 10-6 win in Tuesday's series opener.

The Nationals are 2-6 during their last eight games. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 11 games and are 26-66 in their last 92 home games for a win percentage of 28 percent.

The A's hold a starting pitching edge, too, in this matchup with James Kaprielian facing Anibal Sanchez.

Kaprielian has pitched much better the last two months than he did earlier in the season with a 3-3 record and 3.86 ERA during his last 10 starts. The 38-year-old Sanchez sure looks washed-up. He is 0-5 with a 5.72 ERA.

When the worst team in the majors is chalk, I'm seriously looking at the underdog even if that team is the A's. On closer examination, Oakland should not be the underdog. The A's have fared better on the road and are playing much better than Washington right now.

Oakland is 5-4 in its last nine games. Oakland's last two games were victories against the Yankees. The Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven games. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games.

The A's have the superior starting pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Cole Irvin versus Erick Fedde.

Irvin is 6-11 with a 3.16 ERA. He has a 2.71 ERA in night games and is coming off a brilliant start against the Marlins this past Wednesday throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and striking out 11.

Fedde is 5-8 with a 4.88 ERA, which climbs to 5.70 when he pitches at night. This is only his second August appearance after coming off the injured list last week.

Cleveland defeated the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in six games Saturday night. The Mariners' bullpen let them down in that loss.

Look for the Mariners to bounce back today in a pitching matchup of Aaron Civale against Robbie Ray.

Civale has yet to fulfill his promise. He's 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA. That ERA shoots up to 6.56 on the road.

Ray isn't having the Cy Young Award season he had in 2021, but he's in excellent current form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three games - all Seattle victories. The lefty is 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Guardians rank 25th against lefties in batting average and are 29th in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Seattle has been one of the hottest teams in the league during the second half of the season winning 40 of its last 59 games.

The Rockies are Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde when it comes to their home/road splits. Colorado is 35-31 at Coors Field and 18-39 away from home. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors at .285. That's 20 points better than the next closest team. Colorado also is No. 1 at home in OPS and No. 2 in slugging percentage.

So I find this lay price cheap to back the Rockies against the Rangers at Coors in a pitching matchup of Dane Dunning versus German Marquez. 
Texas, 10 games below .500, nipped the Twins, 2-1, on the road Monday. Colorado was idle on Monday. So the Rockies have a fresh bullpen. 

Dunning is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. He's 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA during his last three starts. Note, though, those outings were against weak-hitting teams the A's, Mariners and White Sox. All of them were home, too. Dunning has been much worse on the road where he's 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA. 

Marquez is 6-10 with a 5.05 ERA. Marquez, however, has been pitching better lately giving up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts He's gone six or more innings in each of his last eight starts. Marquez has a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four career starts against Texas. 

Rarely will a team sweep a series. That's especially true with the Angels, who are 15 games below .500. They edged the Tigers, 1-0, on Friday behind a four-hitter from Patrick Sandoval. The Angels are likely to win Sunday when Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for them.

Before that matchup we have this game pitting Reid Detmers against Tyler Alexander. Both pitchers have identical 4-3 records and 3.45 ERA's. The Tigers have the eighth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Angels rank 20th in bullpen ERA.

I say the underdog Tigers get this middle game with scheduling a key factor. The Angels hadn't been away from the West Coast all month until Thursday when they flew into Detroit. They were OK for a Friday night game. However, this is a day game and an extremely early start for Los Angeles. The body clock of the Angels players is bound to be messed up. So there is more than meets the eye in this matchup making the underdog attractive.