Navy vs. Army 3:00 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Navy +7.0 (5*)

Don’t be misled by the disparity in the 2 team’s records. Navy is 3-8 and Army is 8-3. However, Navy has far and away played the tougher schedule. The Midshipmen have gone up against #4 Cincinnati, #5 Notre Dame, and #21 Houston. The only lopsided loss out of the 3 came at Notre Dame 34-6. The other 2 games saw the Middies cover each in a 28-20 loss at Houston as a 20-point underdog and a 27-20 loss Cincinnati as a 29.0-point dog. The only ranked opponent that Army faced this season was #20 Wake Forest and they suffered a 70-56 loss in that contest. The Black Knights allowed Wake Forest to rack up 638 yards of total defense and were outclassed from the start. This contest goes right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and take the number being given to me. Bet Navy plus the points.

Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*)

Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ET

Game# 319-320

Play On: Wake Forest +3.5 (5*)

This is an intriguing matchup just from the standpoint that we have a ACC Championship Game without Clemson for a first time in 7 years. No other team besides Clemson has won an ACC title since Florida State did it in 2014. The Panthers are 10-2 with a pair of head scratching home losses to Western Michigan and Miami. Pittsburgh is #6 nationally in run defense. However, teams have had success throwing the ball against the Pitt defense. Pitt ranks #113 out of 130 Division 1 teams in pass defense at 261.1 yards allowed per game in the air. They will be facing a Wake Forest passing attack that averages 315.5 yards passing per game which is 11th best nationally. The Demon Deacons defense does give up plenty of yards, but they have forced 27 turnovers this season, and are #4 nationally in turnover margin at +12.0. Look for to win the turnover battle and that being a key contributing factor to us getting the cover. Additionally, this contest will be played in the backyard of Wake Forest at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Bet Wake Forest plus the points.

Houston @ Cincinnati 4:00 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*)

Cincinnati has been arguably the most criticized 12-0 in college football history. Their detractors are quick to point out their inferior schedule compared to those of Power 5 Conference schools. Yet, they handed #6 Notre Dame their lone loss of the season and did so in South Bend.  They are currently #4 in the college football playoff rankings. It would seem they just need to beat #21 Houston who enters Saturday’s conference title game on an 11-game win streak for a berth in the college football playoffs. However, I am not convinced that just a win will be all it takes to stay in the Top 4. A convincing win is what’s needed to solidify their spot within the Top 4, and I truly believe the Bearcats will be able to produce just that. Bet Cincinnati minus the points.

Georgia vs. Alabama 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Alabama +6.5 (5*)

Georgia hasn’t truly been tested since their season opening 10-3 win over Clemson. They won their other 11 games by 17 points or more. From a statistical standpoint, Georgia is far and away the best defensive team in the country. They’ve allowed a mere 6.9 points and 230.9 yards per game this season. However, they haven’t faced as talented an offense as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Crimson Tide averages 42.7 points and 491.6 yards per game. Alabama has passed for over 300 yards in each of its last 7 games The Alabama defense doesn’t have the dominating statistics that Georgia does. Nonetheless, they are #7 nationally in total defense while allowing just 292.5 yards per game, #3 against the run, #3 in sacks with 43, and #11 on 3rd downs. This will be the first time since 10/3/2015 that Alabama is installed as an underdog. Ironically enough, they were a 1.5-point road underdog at Georgia on that day and walked away with a decisive 38-10 win. Bet Alabama plus the points.

Appalachian State @ UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Appalachian State -2.5 (10*)

UL-Lafayette has won 11 straight games since their season opening loss at Texas. One of those 11 wins was a 41-13 home rout of Appalachian State. There was nothing lucky about that win as they outgained their bitter Sun Belt Conference rivals by a decided margin of 455-211. Yet here they are as a 3.0-point home underdog at the time of this writing. When it comes to sports betting, it’s rarely as easy as it may appear. This is a textbook example of such.

Since that disappointing loss to UL-Lafayette, Appalachian State has won 6 straight games and covered 5 of those contests with an average victory margin of 25.7 points per game. The Mountaineers will not only be playing with same season revenge on Saturday, they’ll also be out to atone for a 24-21 home loss to UL-Lafayette in last season’s Sun Belt Championship Games. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*)

Baylor enters this Big 12 Championship Game with an outstanding 10-2 record. One of those 2 losses came at Oklahoma State earlier this season. The Bears were held to a season low 14 points scored and 280 yards of total offense in that defeat but still only lost by 10.

Oklahoma State is coming off arguably the most successful regular season in program history. They finished 11-1, defeated arch nemesis Oklahoma 37-33 in its previous game, and are lurking at #5 in the most recent college football rankings. Despite having a lot to still play for including a playoff berth and an opportunity to win a national championship, I firmly believe that they won’t be at their sharpest on Saturday. After all, they already defeated Baylor this season, and are coming off an intense and emotional game against their despised in state rival. Bet Baylor plus the points.

Utah vs. Oregon 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon +3.0 (5*)

Oregon is less than 2 weeks removed from being crushed at Utah 38-7. That defeat crushed their college football playoff aspirations. Nevertheless, it must be noted, that underdogs playing with revenge in the postseason have been a huge money-maker. Since 2008, those underdogs went 19-7 (73%) ATS and won 16 of those contests straight up. I like Oregon to bounce back tonight in a big way. Bet Oregon plus the points.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: Oklahoma State -4.0 (10*)

Oklahoma State has gone winless in their last 6 versus Oklahoma and failed to cover on 5 of those occasions. Yet, the sportsbooks are unfazed by those head-to-head results with Oklahoma State opening as a 3.5-point favorite in this contest. Their defense has been sensational this season and a major reason for their 10-1 record in addition to being ranked #7 by the college football playoff committee. The Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points and 251.6 yards per game this season. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while outscoring their opponents by a cumulative score of 165-23 and allowed a mere 137.8 yards per game. Comparatively, Oklahoma has permitted opponents to average 432.0 yards of total offense per game over its last 7 contests. Bet Oklahoma State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET

Game# 157-158

Play On: Pittsburgh -12.5 (5*)

Syracuse has run the ball on 63.3% of their offensive plays this season. Furthermore, 61.1% of their offense yards gained have come via their running game. Those numbers are even more lopsided over their last 3 games where 69.1% of their offensive plays were runs and 77.2% of their yards gained came via their rushing attacks. Syracuse has passed for 66 yards or fewer in each of those previous 3 games. Those types of offensive splits resemble that of a service academy. That will be problematic when facing a Pittsburgh team that’s #7 nationally in stopping the run while allowing only 98.8 yards per game. On the other hand, the Panthers offense has averaged 44.0 points scored and 528.7 yards gained per game throughout its last 3 contests. The Pitt offense led by star senior quarterback Kenny Pickett will be facing a Syracuse defense which has failed to force a turnover in 5 straight games. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points.

Oregon State @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Oregon -6.5 (5*)

Oregon will be in a sour mood after last Saturday’s embarrassing 38-7 loss at Utah which knocked them out of the college football playoff picture. Now they take on in state rival Oregon state that’s enjoying an inspiring 7-4 season to this point. However, the Beavers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included being upset by California 4-6 and Colorado 4-8. Oregon will also be playing with revenge after being upset 41-38 by their bitter rival last season in a game they closed as a 13.0-point road favorite. Oregon is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Bet Oregon minus the points.

Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Penn State -3.0 (5*)

This line makes no sense to me. Penn State started the season 5-0 and since that time has gone 2-4. The Nittany Lions are unranked, yet they find themselves as a small favorite versus a 9-2 Michigan State team that’s ranked #12 in the most recent college football playoff rankings. The Spartans were also shellacked last Saturday 56-7 at Ohio State. The Michigan State defense has been shaky all season and over their last 4 games that’s become painfully apparent to Michigan State backers. During that stretch the Spartans allowed 37.5 points and 563.0 yards per game.

The other puzzling part of this current point-spread is the fact that Michigan State is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game. Penn State is just 2-2 SU on the road, but they covered 3 of those contests. Additionally, their only 2 road losses came at #7 Iowa (10-2) by 3 and #2 Ohio State by 9. The Nittany Lions also own a road win over #18 Wisconsin. They’re begging you to take the home underdog. I am not taking the bait. Bet Penn State minus the points.

Charlotte @ Old Dominion 2:00 PM ET

Game# 193-194

Play On: Old Dominion -9.5 (5*)

These teams have identical 5-6 records, but Old Dominion has clearly bee the better team in this latter part of regular season action. Charlotte started the year 4-2 but since then has gone 1-4 SU&ATS. Conversely, Old Dominion started the season 1-5 and has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since. All 5 losses sustained by ODU all came against teams that currently have a winning record.

Throughout their previous 3 games, Charlotte allowed an average of 38.3 points and 520 yards per game. On the other hand, the ODU offense is playing its most productive football of the season during its last 3 contests while averaging 33.7 points scored and 451.0 yards gained per game. Bet on Old Dominion minus the points.

Miami-Ohio @ Kent State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: Kent State +1.5 (5*)

Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games. Nonetheless, the fact remains that they are a dismal 1-5 SU on the road. Kent State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 at home and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes are average 46.0 points scored and 602.3 yards gained per game at home.

Kent State is coming off a 38-0 win at Akron in their previous game. That win improved their season record to 6-5. Any college football team that’s coming off a conference road win by 35 points or more, and they possess a winning record, resulted in those home teams going 48-8 SU (85.7%) since 2017. Considering what the point-spread is in this contest, this college football straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Kent State.

Missouri @ Arkansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Arkansas -14.5 (5*)

Missouri has won its last 2 to improve their season record to 6-5 and become bowl eligible. However, their last 5 wins have all come against teams that currently have a losing record. Missouri is 3-4 in SEC action and allowed 36.3 points and 446.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season where they average 37.0 points scored and 472.3 yards gained per game. The Razorbacks are coming off a narrow 42-35 loss at #3 Alabama last Saturday. They were able to amass 468 yards against an Alabama defense that’s far better than the one it will face in this matchup. Bet Arkansas minus the points.

Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Texas -3.0 (5*)

I always profess to think like a oddsmaker and that will provide you with an edge that most don’t comprehend. This matchup has a Texas team which gone 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a small favorite against an opponent in Kansas State who enters their regular season finale with a respectable 7-4 record. It’s rarely that easy in sports betting when things seem so obvious. Besides, Texas has defeated Kansas State in each of the past 4 seasons. Bet Texas minus the points.

Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*)

The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points.

Baylor @ Kansas State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 413-414

Play On: Kansas State (5*)

Baylor is coming off a game in which they knocked off undefeated Oklahoma by a score of 17-7. The Bears were sky high in that contest in front of a raucous home crowd. There’s no way humanly possible that the #11 ranked Bears will be able to match that physical or mental intensity when going on the road versus an unranked opponent. However, it must be note, Kansas State is 7-3 and winners of 4 straight game. Bet on Kansas State.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin 3:30 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Nebraska +10.0 (5*)

This is another game where the line doesn’t make sense, and yes, I’m once again taking a contrarian approach. Since starting the season 1-3, Wisconsin has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The latest college football poll has them ranked at #15. Yet, they find themselves as a reasonably sized favorite when considering their opponent is 3-7 and losers of 4 in a row. Nonetheless, you can make a strong case that Nebraska is the best team in the country with a losing record. For example, during their present 4-game losing streak they faced #6 Michigan (9-1), #4 Ohio State (9-1), Purdue (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Even with that tough stretch of games versus quality opponents they were only outscored by 6.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, all 7 of the Cornhuskers losses were 1 possession games. Additionally, head coach Scott Frost received a vote of confidence to return next year. That should also relieve stress for the coaching staff and players alike. Bet Nebraska plus the points.

SMU @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET

Game# 327-328

Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*)

Despite being 10-0 and posting a quality win at #7 Notre Dame, if the season were to end today, Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in. The biggest criticism of the Bearcats has been their inability to dominate seemingly weaker teams in their own conference. Well, they’ll have a chance to impress the college football committee on Saturday against an 8-2 SMU team. I believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The Bearcats are 5-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points and outgaining them by 168.8 yards per contest. The major weakness for SMU is their defense and that’s especially been the case when facing better than average opponents. The Bearcats unequivocally qualify in that regard. Bet Cincinnati minus the points.

Michigan State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 339-340

Play On: Ohio State -18.0 (5*)

We have the #4 team in the country as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against #7 Michigan State. I am sure this substantial number will produce a lot more tickets and money bet on the underdog. But I’m here to tell you they are wrong. This isn’t a recoding but think like an oddsmaker if you want to be a successful sports bettor. Why is Ohio State such a large favorite against an opponent who is just 3 spots below them in the latest college football playoff rankings? Simply put, because those sharp and astute professionals see Michigan State the same way I do, and that’s an absolute fraud. Regardless of their superb 9-1 record, Michigan State is terrible defensively, and they will be facing a red-hot Ohio State offense that’s #1 nationally in scoring and yards gained. Conversely, Michigan State is #111 in total defense having given up 444.0 yards per game this season. Don’t get suckered into taking the sizable underdog. Lay the points with Ohio State.

Wake Forest @ Clemson 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Clemson -4.0 (5*)

This is another one of those college football betting situations that I love taking a contrarian approach. Wake Forest is 9-1 and ranked #10 in the latest college football poll yet they fin themselves as more than a field goal underdog against an unranked team. The biggest enigma for Wake Forest is their defense. The Demon Deacons has allowed 34 or more points and 500 yards or greater in 5 of its last 6 games.

Clemson is enduring an uncharacteristic season in which they never seriously threatened being a national title contender. However, they have won 3 in a row to improve their season record to 7-3. The Tigers defense has been stellar all season. The Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and allowed a mere 10.2 points and 248.2 yards per game. They will be up to the task against Wake’s explosive offense. The Tigers offense has struggle for most of this season. On a positive note, Clemson has scored 34.7 points per contest during their current win streak. Bet Clemson minus the points.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma 12:00 PM ET

Game# 401-402

Play On: Iowa State +3.5 (5*)

Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Baylor. The Sooners have a huge in-state rivalry game up next versus 9-1 Oklahoma State. This sets up as a flat spot for Oklahoma.

Iowa State is coming off a 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech last week. That dropped their season record to 6-4. The Cyclones have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a massive margin of 43.3 points per game. Iowa State will also be out to revenge their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in last season’s Big 12 Championship game. Bet Iowa State plus the points.

Toledo @ Ohio 7:00 ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Ohio +7.0 (5*)

Toledo is coming off a 49-17 win over arguably the MAC’s worst team Bowling Green. The Rockets have been the model of inconsistency this season evidenced by a 1-3 record following a win. Their only win in that sequence came over a 1-9 Massachusetts team whose lone victory came over Connecticut team that’s gone 0-7 versus FBS teams. Toledo has gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2019, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS following 2 consecutive games going over the total and were outscored by an average of 13.5 points per contest.

Ohio started the season 0-4 SU&ATS and the cumulative score was 141-55. However, we must keep in mind that long time head coach Frank Solich abruptly decided to retire just before summer camp which caused some instability heading into the season. Since that time, Ohio is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 SU with all coming versus MAC opponents. As a matter of fact, their 3 conference losses have come by a combined 11 points. The Bobcats are coming off 2 consecutive SU wins as an underdog over Eastern Michigan and Miami-Ohio. They rushed for 178.3 yards per game during those 2 victories in addition to averaging a robust 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Bet Ohio plus the points.

Nevada @ San Diego 10:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: San Diego State -3.0 (5*)

When it comes purely to my eye test, I believe Nevada is the better team in this matchup. However, when talking about a betting situation, I firmly believe the #22 San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) are the right side on Saturday. Additionally, there’s been a huge line move on this contest and for no apparent reason other than extremely sharp money being wagered on San Diego State. It’s never a bad idea to follow a sharp money move of this magnitude. Bet San Diego State minus the points.

NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: NC State +2.0 (5*)

Wake Forest is coming off a gut wrenching 58-55 loss at North Carolina last week in a game they led by 14 heading into the 4th quarter. That resulted in the Demon Deacons first loss of the season and put to rest any possible way of reaching the college football playoffs. I will go out on a limb and say the emotional toll taken from that defeat will carry over to this week. Couple that with them facing #16 NC State (7-2) and it doesn’t present a favorable betting situation for the small home favorite. The Wake Forest offense is undeniably an explosive group. Nonetheless, this will be unequivocally the best defense they’ve faced all season. The Wolfpack stop unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games. Bet on NC State plus the small number.

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET

Game# 195-196

Play On: Ole Miss +2.5 (5*)

Both teams enter this contest nationally ranked and with identical 7-2 overall records. Nevertheless, home field advantage will be key to us covering this contest. Ole Miss has gone 5-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. During those home contests, Ole Miss has averaged 45.0 points and 575.6 yards per game. Ole Miss is an impressive +11 in turnover margin and has committed only 5 giveaways in 9 games played. The Rebels just don’t beat themselves. Bet Ole Miss plus the points.

Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*)

Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Oklahoma @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET

Game# 149-150

Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*)

The mighty Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten at 9-0, yet the college football playoff committee has them ranked #8 going into this week, and with five 1 loss teams ranked ahead of them. They don’t think the Sooners are as good as their record indicates and neither do I. They will have their hands full at #13 Baylor (7-2) on Saturday. The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season which includes quality wins over Iowa State, Texas, and BYU who were all ranked in the Top 25 for a large portion of this season before dropping out. Bet Baylor plus the points.

East Carolina @ Memphis 12:00 ET

Game# 173-174

Play On: East Carolina +5.5 (5*)

I love this spot for the underdog Pirates. Memphis is coming off a huge 28-25 home win over SMU. I'm looking for this to be a flat spot for the Tigers.

East Carolina is coming off a 45-3 blowout win over Temple. That’s the same Temple team that beat Memphis just a few weeks back. With that victory, East Carolina has gone a solid 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over their previous 7 games. That’s the same South Carolina team that routed Florida 40-16 last Saturday. Bet East Carolina plus the points.

Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*)

Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points.

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*)

It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite.  Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*)

Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season.

Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year.

Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*)

Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points.

SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*)

SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season.

Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points.

Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET

Game# 373-374

Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*)

Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points.

Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: Toledo -8.5 (5*)

Toledo is a deceiving 4-4 this season. The Rockets suffered 3 of their 4 defeats by 3-points or fewer which included 32-29 at #8 Notre Dame. Toledo is coming off an impressive 34-15 win over Western Michigan and did so as a 1.5-point home underdog. These teams met at Eastern Michigan last season and Toledo walked away with a 45-28 win.

Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 with a win percentage of .444 or better, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 19.5 points per game. Bet on Toledo minus the points.

Fresno State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 213-214

Play On: Fresno State (Pick/-110)

Granted San Diego State is 7-0 and ranked #21 nationally. I still firmly believe that 6-2 Fresno State is the better team in this matchup, and definitively so offensively. Fresno State is battle tested on the road after already winning at UCLA as a double-digit underdog and having taken #7 Oregon down to the wire in a 7-point loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Aztecs most notable win on their resume was an overtime 2-point home win over Utah and all 7 of its wins have come over currently unranked opponents. This is a Fresno team that averages 35.6 points scored and 479.6 yards gained per game. On the other hand, over their previous 3 contests San Diego State has averaged 23.3 points scored and 268.3 yards gained per game. Bet on Fresno State.

North Carolina @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Game# 209-210

Play On: North Carolina +3.5 (10*)

Notre Dame is coming last Saturday 31-16 win over USC, and they covered as a 7.5-point home favorite. That victory improved their season record to 6-1. Nonetheless, 3 of their 6 wins came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 45-42 home win over Miami Fla. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle which is displayed below.

Any college football underdog of 3.5 or less (North Carolina) that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 48 or less, versus an opponent (North Carolina) coming off a home favorite ATS win, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, resulted in those small away underdogs going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2006 and they won 24 of those 26 contests straight up. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 12:00 PM ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Georgia Tech -4.0 (5*)

Virginia Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and all those took place at home. You can give them an excuse in losses versus #11 and #17 Pittsburgh who have a combined record of 12-2 this season. But last week’s 41-36 loss to Syracuse in a game they blew a 9-point lead with less than 3 minutes to play was of the gut-wrenching variety. During this 3-game losing streak, the Hokies have allowed 33.7 points and 450.0 yards per game.

Georgia Tech is coming last Saturday’s 48-40 loss at Virginia. Nevertheless, they have gone a perfect 3-0 this season following a loss and won by 18.3 points per contest. The Yellowjackets offense has shown vast improvement throughout their previous 3 contests while amassing 30.7 points scored and 480.7 yards gained per game. Bet Georgia Tech minus the points.

Iowa @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*)

So let me make sure I get this right. We have an Iowa team that’s coming off a home upset 24-7 loss to Purdue at which time they were ranked #2, playing with a week of rest, and finds themselves as an underdog versus a 4-3 unranked Wisconsin team. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous or kind. This is a classic example of when thinking like an oddsmaker will pay dividends. By the way, Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s easy 30-13 win at Purdue and held the Boilermakers to a mere 206 yards of total offense while also forcing 5 turnovers. Comparatively speaking, during Iowa’s home loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago they allowed the Boilermakers to rack up 464 yards of total offense. Bet Wisconsin minus the points.

Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 373-374

Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)

Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points.

San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET

Game# 405-406

Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*)

We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak.

Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number.

Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 409-410

Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*)

This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points.

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET

Game# 383-384

Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*)

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Syracuse @ Virginia Tech 12:30 PM ET

Game# 341-342

Play On: Syracuse +3.5 (5*)

I like the offensive identity since Syracuse inserted Garrett Schrader as their starting quarterback. They have become a run first team and they have executed that part of their game quite well. However, after a 3-1 start to the season, the Orange have dropped 3 games in a row. The silver lining is that each of those defeats came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a lopsided 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh.

Any college football road underdog of 4.0 or less (Syracuse) that’s coming off back-to-back losses by 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Virginia Tech) coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those road underdogs going 13-0 ATS and 12-0-1 SU since 1982. Bet on Syracuse plus the points.

San Jose State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET

Game# 411-412

Play On: UNLV +4.0 (5*)

San Jose State is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season and averaged just 10.0 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Spartans have scored 17 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season.

UNLV is 0-6 thus far. However, they’ve shown vast improvement over their last 3 games. They lost all 3 of those contests by 8 points or fewer and against respectable opponents (Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State). UNLV has played a far more difficult schedule than the one San Jose State has faced. This is the week the Rebels get over the hump. Bet UNLV plus the points.

Air Force @ Boise State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: Air Force +4.0 (5*)

Boise State is coming off last week’s 26-17 upset win at then #10 BYU. That evened the Broncos season record at 3-3. However, Boise State is 0-2 SU&ATS following a win this season and both contests occurred at home. Boise State has allowed 235 yards or more rushing in 3 of its 6 games, and that’s 98th out of 130 FBS teams in that statistical category. That presents an issue for the Broncos defense since they’ll be facing an Air Force team who averages 341.3 yards rushing per game which is best in the country.

Speaking of Air Force, they enter this week with a stellar 5-1 record. Their only loss happened in Week 3 when they fell 49-45 at Utah State. Casting that contest aside, the Falcons allowed 14 points or less and 286 yards or fewer in each of their other 5 games. It also must be noted, Air Force is 2nd in the country when it comes to offensive time of possession at 37:43 per game. The opposing offense can’t score if they’re on the sidelines and that’s been a key contributor to those 5 impressive defensive efforts. Lastly, Air Force will be playing with big time revenge after losing its last 4 encounters with Boise State. I love this spot for the away underdog. Bet Air Force plus the points.

Iowa State @ Kansas State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 197-198

Play On: Kansas State +6.5 (5*)

Kansas State has been a profitable conference home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, since 2011 Kansas State is 9-3 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog of 7.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, Iowa State has gone 0-4 ATS as a conference away favorite of 7.0 or less and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Additionally, Kansas State has won 7 consecutive home games versus Iowa State.

Kansas State got off to a 3-0 start but unfortunately dropped their last 2 games. There is a silver lining to those losses when considering they came against #12 Oklahoma State (4-0) and #4 Oklahoma (6-0). It’s not like they were blown out as their defeat at Oklahoma State was 31-20, and in their previous game the Wildcats lost 37-31 to Oklahoma but covered as a 12.0-point home underdog. The Wildcats will be playing with big time revenge after being throttled 45-0 at Iowa State last season.

Iowa State was ranked in the Top 10 preseason rankings. However, they’re off to a 3-2 start and they’re currently unranked. The Cyclones are coming off a 59-7 home rout of Kansas. Iowa State is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Cyclones lone 3 wins came over Northern Iowa (FCS level team) 16-10 in a game they were a 31.5-point favorite, Kansas (1-4), and UNLV (0-5).

Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.5 points (Kansas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a home loss by 9 points or fewer in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2002. Those underdogs also went 13-7 SU in those games as well. Bet Kansas State plus the points.

Purdue @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET

Game# 181-182

Play On: Purdue +12.0 (5*)

Iowa is coming off a comeback win at home last Saturday versus then #4 Penn State and had to overcome a 17-3 deficit to do so. However, they were very fortunate that Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was injured in that game, and from that point on the excellent Iowa defense was able to close the gates. Last week’s game received a fair share of hype and attracted national attention. I am looking at Iowa being vulnerable physically and mentally this week against a middle of the road conference opponent.

Purdue will be playing with rest after sustaining disappointing 20-13 home loss to Minnesota 2 weeks ago. That defeat dropped their season record to a still respectable 3-2. The Iowa defense has received penty of praise and rightfully so. Nonetheless, the Purdue stop unit has flown under the radar while allowing just 15.4 points and 299.6 yards per game. As good as Iowa has been this season, their offense has amassed only 303 yards or fewer in 4 of 6 games. The Boilermakers have defeated Iowa in 3 of the last 4 meetings and were 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those matchups. Bet Purdue plus the points.

Texas A&M @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET

Game# 171-172

Play On: Missouri +9.0 (5*)

Texas A&M is coming off last week’s huge upset win as a 18.5-point home underdog over then top ranked Alabama. Despite that colossal upset, the Aggies are just 1-2 in SEC action while allowing 28.0 points and 467.7 yards per game. The one thing that 3-3 Missouri has done consistently well this season is move the football. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points scored and 467.0 yards gained per game. Another potential contributing factor to the home underdog covering this contest is turnovers. Missouri has +4 turnover margin thus far while Texas A&M is at -4. I’m looking for A&M to not even come close to matching their intensity they displayed at home versus Alabama last week. The college football betting angle below further supports that prediction.

Any college football conference home underdog of 11.5 or less, versus an opponent (Texas A&M) with a win percentage of .800 or worse that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 10.0 to 22.0 points straight up win, resulted in those conference home underdogs going 20-3 ATS (87%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 20-11 SU in those contests. Bet Missouri plus the points.

Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 173-174

Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*)

#25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State.  I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5.

The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2.  Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

LSU @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET

Game# 359-360

Play On: LSU +2.5 (5*)

Kentucky is coming off a huge home upset win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0 recorded and catapulted them to a #16 ranking. Now they’ll be facing unranked LSU (3-2) and have #2 Georgia on deck and as only a short favorite on their home field. By the way, LSU will be looking to bounce back after a 24-19 home upset loss to Auburn last week. This looks like a prime spot for the underdog LSU Tigers to come up big. Bet LSU plus the points.

Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET

Game# 381-382

Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*)

#9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that.

Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest.

Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

UTSA @ Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Western Kentucky -3.0 (5*)

This is an extremely fishy line when you consider that Western Kentucky is 1-3 and is the favorite over a UTSA team who’s 5-0. One thing is for sure, the Western Kentucky offense is explosive. They have averaged 39.0 points scored and 52.5 yards gained per game. That includes piling up 560 yards of total offense in last week’s 48-31 loss at #11 Michigan State. Their other defeats came at Army 38-35 and versus Indiana 33-31. During its last 2 games, UTSA gave up 329 yards passing to Memphis and 316 to winless UNLV. That is problematic for the Roadrunners defense since it will be facing an opponent on Saturday that has passed for 365 yards or more in all 4 games they’ve played and includes 435 yards or more in 3 of those contests. Bet Western Kentucky minus the points.

SMU @ Navy 3:30 PM ET

Game# 353-354

Play On: SMU -13.0 (5*)

If there was any chance of #24 SMU (5-0) overlooking Navy that was put to rest after the Midship upset UCF last week as a 15.0-point home underdog. Additionally, that was Navy’s first victory of the season after beginning with 3 losses. SMU is explosive yet balanced offensively. The Mustangs average 40 runs and 38 passes per game while averaging 42.6 points scored and 532.6 yards gained per contest. SMU will be able to score at will in this contest and jump out to a comfortable lead. That will take Navy out of their offensive comfort zone of running the ball successfully and chewing up clock to shorten games against teams with more talent. Bet on SMU minus the points.

Michigan State @ Rutgers 12:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Rutgers +4.5 (5*)

Rutgers has the unenviable task of going through a tough stretch of games after facing #7 Ohio State (4-1) last week and #9 Michigan (5-0) prior to that. They more than held their own in Ann Arbor in a 20-13 loss. However, last week was a different story as they were blown out at home by Ohio State 52-13. Yet, they find themselves as just a 5.5-point home underdog on Saturday versus #11 and undefeated Michigan State (5-0). We’ve already witnessed the public’s overreaction as they’ve wagered heavily on Michigan State. Yet we’ve seen little line movement from the opening number. Bet on Rutgers plus the points.

Indiana @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Indiana +12.5 (5*)

Indiana is off to a disappointing 2-2 start when considering they were ranked #16 in the preseason polls. They will be facing a tough task on Saturday on the road at #4 Penn State. However, the Hoosiers are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Nittany Lions including last season’s thrilling 36-35 win at home. Their 2 SU losses to the Nittany Lions came by narrow margins of 5 and 7 points in games they were a double-digit underdog on each occasion. Penn State has a couple of quality wins thus far over Wisconsin 16-10 and Auburn 28-20. Here’s the kicker, up next for Penn State is a road game at #5 Iowa (5-0). This has all the earmarks of a flat spot for Penn State and a much closer game than most will anticipate. Bet Indiana plus the points.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 177-178

Play On: Baylor +4.0 (5*)

Oklahoma State enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked 19th in the country. However, their 4 wins have come by a combined 24 points or an average victory margin of 6.0 points per contest. #21 Baylor is also 4-0 and coming off an upset win over Iowa State as a 7.0-point home underdog. Baylor is allowing just 15.8 points and 290.3 yards per game. This 2021 version Oklahoma State football isn’t as talented or dynamic offensively as they’ve been in recent years. This game will go right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever to see Baylor pull off an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and will graciously accept the points being afforded to me. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 5* wager.

Duke @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: North Carolina -19.5 (5*)

For starters we have a North Carolina team that’s 2-2 as a 20.0-point favorite over a 3-1 opponent (Duke). That speaks volumes to me and especially so in a huge rivalry game. North Carolina was shocked last week as a 14.5-point road favorite during a 45-22 road loss to Georgia Tech. The last time the Tar Heels were upset was in their season opener at Virginia Tech. They followed that up with 2 home blowout wins over Georgia State 59-0 and Virginia 59-39. In which they combined for 1306 yards of total offense.

I look for another huge offensive performance for North Carolina on Saturday against a Duke defense that allowed 33 points and 507 yards to an immensely weak Kansas team. Duke enters this game on a 3-game win streak after being upset in their season opener at Charlotte. Nonetheless, those wins came over the likes of North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas. Northwestern and Kansas are a combined 0-5 versus FBS opponents this season, and North Carolina A&T (1-2) who plays at the FCS level. Not exactly the who’s who of college football. Bet North Carolina minus the points.

Texas @ TCU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: TCU +4.5 (5*)

I put this one in the line doesn’t make sense category. When that occurs my mind automatically shifts to a contrarian mindset and a bookmaker’s mentality. We have a Texas team that’s 3-1 and their only loss came at #8 Arkansas. The Longhorns were dominant in each of the last 2 weeks with wins over Texas Tech 70-35 and 58-0 versus Rice. Conversely TCU is coming off an upset loss to SMU in a game they were a 9.0-point home favorite.  The week before that the Horned Frogs barely escaped with a 2-point win over California while failing to cover as a 12.0-point home favorite. Furthermore, Texas will be playing with revenge stemming from losses to TCU in each of the past 2 season. The sports books just aren’t that generous.

Any conference home team (TCU) with a winning record, and they’re facing an opponent (Texas) with a win percentage of .600 to .800 who coming off a conference win by 10 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 59-16 (78.7%) straight up since 2018. This college football straight up betting algorithm supports the underdog in this matchup and makes this wagering angle far more significant. Bet on TCU plus the points.

Iowa @ Maryland 8:00 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Maryland +3.5 (5*)

So let me get this right, we have the #5 ranked team (Iowa) in the country as just a 3.5-point favorite over an unranked opponent. Which means if the game was being played in Iowa City the #5 Hawkeyes would be only be about a 9.5-point favorite. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers compared to the pollsters. Based on that previous statement, the sportsbooks are begging you to take the highly ranked team as a short favorite over their unheralded opponent.

By the way, despite being unranked, Maryland is 4-0 and averaging more than 500 yards of total offense per game. The Terrapins will be facing a tough task against an Iowa defense which is allowing only 11.0 points and 271.5 yards per game. However, the Iowa offense leaves much to be desired while averaging a mere 293.0 yards per game. Bet Maryland plus the points.

Colorado @ Arizona State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Arizona State -14.0 (5*)

#19 Arizona is coming off a 27-17 upset loss at #15 BYU (3-0). So, the Sun Devils figure to be in a sour mood against a Colorado team which has looked inept offensively to start the season. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with their only win coming versus Northern Colorado. In their only 2 games against FBS opponents they lost 10-7 to Texas A&M and 30-0 at home versus Minnesota. Additionally, they only had 260 yards of total offense versus Texas A&M and an abysmal 63 yards against Minnesota. By the way, through their first 3 games, the Sun Devils defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 246.7 yards per game. The Sun Devils offense has topped the 400 yards of total offense barrier in all 3 games. Bet on Arizona State minus the points for a 5* wager.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: Oklahoma -17.0 (5*)

Since the start of last season, West Virginia has gone a perfect 7-0 at home and that includes last week’s win over then #15 Virginia Tech. However, during that identical time span, they went 0-5 on the road and that includes a season opening 30-24 loss at Maryland.

The critics have been harsh on #4 Oklahoma despite their 3-0 record. The basis behind those negative remarks revolves around the Sooners only 2 games played against FBS opponents. They narrowly escaped in their season opener at home with 40-35 win over Tulane in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Then last week they entertained Nebraska (1-2) and barely got by with a 23-16 win as a 22.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, since 2014, Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS versus West Virginia with an average victory margin of 21.5 points per game. Oklahoma is also +2 in the turnover department while West Virginia is a dismal -6 throughout their first 2 games. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points.

UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*)

After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them.

After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Louisville @ Florida State 3:30

Game# 267-268

Play On: Florida State +2.0 (5*)

Florida State is 0-3 for the first time since 1976, and that includes a home loss 2 weeks ago to Jacksonville State who plays at the FCS level. The Seminoles were plagued by an alarmingly high 10 turnovers during those 3 defeats and 6 of those came in last week’s 35-14 loss at Wake Forest. Yet, they find themselves as just a 2.0-point underdog versus a Louisville team that just upset Central Florida in a nationally televised home game. After losing both home games to start the season and each by a narrow 3-point margin, I look for Florida State to roar back with a vengeance against a Louisville team that may potentially be overconfident and not mentally sharp. Bet on Florida State plus the small number.

Iowa State @ Baylor 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*)

Baylor is off to a fast 3-0 start but finds itself a touchdown home underdog against 2-1 Iowa State. We must keep in mind Iowa State’s lone defeat came against #6 Iowa in a game they beat themselves. The Cyclones outgained Iowa in that contest 339-173 but turned the ball over 4 times while not forcing any giveaways. Iowa State rebounded during last week’s 48-3 road win at UNLV. Through its first 3 contests, the Iowa State defense is allowing 13.3 points and 192.7 yards per game, and all those outings went under the total. Baylor’s 3 wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Not exactly a killer schedule.

Any college football road favorite of 3.5-10.0 that is coming off 3 consecutive games going under the total, and they’re allowing 14.0 points or fewer per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 1992. The average line in those 39 contests was 6.2 and the average victory margin was 16.6 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wake Forest @ Virginia 9:36 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Virginia -4.0 (5*)

Wake Forest has started 3-0 but their wins have come over Norfolk State (FCS team), Florida State (0-3), and Old Dominion (1-2). Additionally, all 3 of those wins occurred at home. So, they haven’t exactly played a killer schedule thus far, and Virginia will unequivocally be their toughest test to this point. The Demon Deacons have also been beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential thus far.

Virginia is coming off a 59-39 loss at North Carolina. The Virginia defense was embarrassed in that contest while allowing North Carolina to rack up 699 yards of total offense. Wake Forest has neither the dynamic passing game that North Carolina possesses, nor do they have a quarterback the caliber of Sam Howell. I also look for Virginia’s defense to bounce back with a more determined effort on Friday. On a positive note, the Virginia passing game has been terrific through their first 3 games while averaging a robust 438 yards per contest. The Cavaliers are also averaging 41.3 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2018 season, Virginia has gone 20-2 straight up at home, and that includes a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Virginia minus the points.

Fresno State @ UCLA 10:45 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Fresno State +11.5 (10*)

UCLA is coming off a huge 38-27 upset win at home over LSU which has catapulted them to a #13 national ranking. Following Saturday’s non-conference game versus Fresno, the Bruins have their PAC-12 opener versus Stanford up next. This has the earmarks of a flat spot for a UCLA program doesn’t possess much if any experience of handling success under current head coach Chip Kelly.

If you think Fresno State is going to be intimidated on the road against #13 UCLA, then think again. The Bulldogs already traveled to #4 Oregon 2 weeks ago and that contest was tied 21-21 into the 4th quarter before they fell short in a 31-24. Nonetheless, they easily covered that game as an 18.0-point underdog. That’s the same Oregon team that went to then #2 Ohio State last week and knocked them off which ended the Buckeyes 22-game home winning streak. Throughout their first 3 game, the Fresno State defense is allowing a mere 3.6 yards per play. Conversely, their offense has been efficient led by unheralded quarterback Jake Haener who has completed 73.6% of his passes while throwing for 1009 yards and 8 touchdowns against 0 interceptions through their first 3 contests. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*)

Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina.

The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points.

Charlotte @ Georgia State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Charlotte +5.0 (5*)

Georgia State has started the season with blowout losses to Army 43-10 and North Carolina 59-17. The failed to cover on each occasion and by a combined 52.0 points. They were also outgained in total yards those 2 contests by a combined 963-448.

Charlotte opened the season with an upset win over Duke 31-28. They followed that up with an easy 38-14 win over Gardner Webb and covered as a 23.5-point favorite. They averaged 477.0 yards of total offense in those victories. Charlotte will have success running the ball against Georgia State and that will be the key to us covering. Bet on Charlotte plus the points.

Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 177-178

Play On: San Diego State +8.5 (5*)

San Diego State is coming off a 38-14 blowout win at Arizona in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s the same Arizona team that lost by 5 of BYU in their season opener. Lastly, BYU defeated Utah 26-17 last Saturday as a 7.0-point home underdog in a bitter in state rivalry game. This also presents a rare opportunity for San Diego State (2-0) to defeat PAC-12 teams in consecutive weeks.

Any college football home team (San Diego State) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Utah) coming off a road SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 25.0 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 36-3 (92.3%) straight up since 2017. That straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the better than 1 touchdown home underdog in this matchup. By the way, those home teams were also 31-6-2 ATS in those games as well. Bet on San Diego State plus the points.

Cincinnati @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*)

This opening line was extremely fishing with #8 Cincinnati being installed as just a 3-point favorite at Indiana. Just as I expected, public bettors were lured in by the sportsbooks bait and jumped all over the nationally ranked Bobcats. Thus, the number at the time of this writing was either 3.5 or 4.0 depending on where you look. Taking the road favorite in this spot has sucker play written all over it. Cincinnati sleepwalked through the 1st half of their home game last week against an FCS team Murray State, and it resulted in a 7-7 tie at intermission. Ultimately Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half to prevail 42-7 while failing to cover as a 36.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, it was a less than inspiring performance and they were greatly benefitted by 4 Murray State turnovers. Now they’ll face an Indiana team that was blown out 34-6 in their season opener at #5 Iowa. So why shouldn’t we expect a similar result versus the 8th ranked Bobcats? Because it’s never that easy my friends. Furthermore, Cincinnati could be caught looking past Saturday to next week’s trip to South Bend where they’ll take on #10 Notre Dame.

It’s worth noting that Indiana began the season ranked #16 and with high hopes of being a Big 10 sleeper. An upset of Cincinnati would surely get them back into the Top 25, not to mention being a major confidence booster. Additionally, the 34-6 final score at Iowa was a bit askew since the Hawkeyes returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 233 yards of total offense. That was the same Iowa team that won at #9 Iowa State last week as a 4.0-point underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. By the way, Indiana bounced back with a 56-14 blowout win over Idaho.

Any non-conference college football home team (Indiana) that coming off a win by 35 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Cincinnati) who allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 51-11 (82.2%) straight up since 2012. This straight up betting angle takes on added value because it supports the home underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points.

Washington @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: Washington +7.0 (5*)

Michigan figures to be a heavily bet side in this matchup because bettors tend to remember what happened the week before, and seldom look at any other factor. Washington was shocked last week in a 13-7 loss to Montana in a game they were a 22.0-point home favorite. If there’s such a thing of a team looking past their season and home opener, then Washington was a text back example of such. Conversely, Michigan is coming off an impressive 47-14 blowout win over Western Michigan, and easily covered as a 16.0-point home favorite. Wolverine fans were ecstatic with the performance of their offense that racked up 551 total yards. However, that was against a team that plays in a conference (MAC) where defense has historically been an afterthought, and high scoring games occur in regularity. Washington’s defense will keep them in the game, and their offense will do enough to stay within the number, and possibly even pull off an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the points afforded to me. Bet on Washington plus the points.

Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET

Game# 357-358

Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*)

It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games.

Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions.

Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017.

Notre Dame @ Florida State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Florida State +7.0 (5*)

It will being an emotional night in Tallahassee. Not only will it be the Seminoles home opener, but they’ll be honoring the late great Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden who recently passed away. Additionally, it will mark the return of former Central Florida quarterback Mackenzie Milton who’s now a Florida State Seminole. Milton hasn’t played since sustaining a gruesome injury 3 years ago but will be under center tonight. If Milton can stay healthy and is anywhere near as good as he was as in his freshmen year at Central Florida, the Seminoles experienced offense will take a huge step forward and starting with tonight.

I think Notre Dame will be very good once again this season. However, their current #9 national ranking is more about brand name and last year’s run to the College Football Playoffs. The Fighting Irish have to replace 13 starters from last year’s senior laden team and will go through some early growing pains. I am not sold on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan who was named the starter. Coan doesn’t have the mobility nor is as good a passer as recently departed 3-year starter Ian Book. Bet on Florida State plus the points.

UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*)

Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette.

Indiana @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET

Game# 173-174

Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*)

This is an Indiana team that went 6-2 last season with their lone defeats coming by 7 at #2 Ohio State and by 6 to Ole Miss in a bowl game played without star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Hoosiers return 17 starters from that squad which includes a healthy Penix. The Hoosiers held 5 of their 7 Big 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer a season ago. They are led Big 10 and AFCA National coach of the year Tom Allen who has guided Indiana to a combined 14-7 record the past 2 seasons and includes 6-1 in the Big 10 a year ago. #17 Indiana will be more than up to the task when they travel to Iowa City on Saturday to take on the #18 Hawkeyes. Bet on Indiana plus the points.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: Virginia Tech +5.5 (5*)

Virginia Tech will be out to revenge last season’s 56-45 loss at North Carolina in a game they failed to cover as a short 3.0-point underdog. The Hokies had absolutely no answer against a supremely talented North Carolina offense. However, the Tar Heels lost 4 key skill position players that will be playing in the NFL this season. Granted North Carolina returns Heisman Trophy Award candidate and star quarterback Sam Howell. But he will be depending on several newcomers to replace the talented cast of characters previously mention. Furthermore, although North Carolina returns 10 defensive starters, they were a stop unit which allowed 41 points or more on 4 separate occasions last year.

The 15 returning starters that return for Virginia Tech will have a bad taste in their mouth after having been part of the first Hokies team to miss a bowl game in 28 years. Since 2018, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home underdog of 9.5 or less and averaged 37.7 points scored per game while doing so.

Any college football Game 1 conference home underdog of 3.0 to 8.0 that’s playing with revenge has gone 9-0 ATS since 2011. As a matter of fact, 7 of those situations occurred last season and if those teams were a dog of 5.0 to 8.0 they went 3-0 straight up. Bet on Virginia Tech plus the points.

East Carolina vs. Appalachian State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 139-140

Play On: East Carolina +10.0 (5*)

The Appalachian State returns 7 players on an offense that averaged 34 points and 450 yards per game last season. However, they will have a new quarterback. Former Clemson and Duke quarterback Chase Brice is slated to be under center for the Mountaineers. Brice did throw for over 2100 yards last year, but he had a horrible 10/15 touchdown to interception ratio while completing an uninspiring 54.2% of his passes. Despite being a highly rated and sought after quarterback coming out of high school, Brice hasn’t come close to living up to his perceived potential.

East Carolina returns 20 starters from a team that went 3-6 last season. However, they did average a robust 30 points scored per game while doing so. They will be led once again by junior quarterback Holton Ahlers. All Ahlers has done is account for 7,093 career passing yard and 51 touchdown passes versus 22 interceptions. Ahlers also has amassed 1,060 career rushing yards and ran for 13 touchdowns as well. With 10 offensive returning starter, I look for East Carolina to provide us with a puncher’s chance in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nonetheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points. In what may end up being a seesaw affair, bet on East Carolina plus the number.

Ohio State vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET

Game# 499-500

Play On: Ohio State +9.0 (10*)

The Buckeyes will continue to play with a chip on their shoulders tonight after being heavily criticized for making the College Football Playoff despite playing only 6 games at the time. Ohio State is one of the few and maybe even the only team in the country that can match Alabama’s offensive explosiveness. The Buckeyes defense has given up its share of yards this season, but they have also forced an eye-popping 18 turnovers in just 7 games.

Ohio State has racked 254 yards or more rushing in each of its last 4 games. The Buckeyes have outrushed their opponents this season by a substantial 184 yards per game. This qualifies by a high percentage college football betting angle which is shown below.

Any neutral field underdog that has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their last 3 games, and they’re outrushing their opponents on the season by 100 or more yards per contest, resulted in those underdogs going an extremely profitable 30-7 ATS (81.1%) since 1992. The average point-spread in those 37 games was 7.1, and the underdog also won 18 of those 37 games straight up. This precise betting angle came up in the previous game for Ohio State and they came away with a 49-28 blowout win over Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

North Carolina vs. Texas A&M 8:00 PM ET

Game# 497-468

Play On: North Carolina +7.5 (10*)

Whenever I get a winning team with an explosive offense as an underdog like North Carolina is in this contest it always prompts me to do further investigation. This situation qualifies in the regard. North Carolina is 8-3 and they averaged 43.0 points scored and 556.5 yards gained per game. They have also scored 41 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games which includes a regular season finale 62-26 win at nationally ranked Miami. I like to use the boxing analogy when it comes to these high scoring underdogs. I compare them to knockout artists in boxing, you are never out of it because you have a punchers chance.

Texas A&M is 8-1, winners of 7 straight, and ranked #5 in the country. However, Aggies players and coaches alike were perplexed by being snubbed by the college football playoff committee. One school of thought is they will be out to make a statement in this matchup. In my experience, it’s quite the contrary, and college teams that have been snubbed in either football or basketball more times than not come out flatter than a pancake in their following game. This will be a textbook example of such. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Oregon vs. Iowa State 4:00 PM ET

Game# 495-496

Play On: Iowa State -3.5 (5*)

Oregon filled in for Washington (COVID issues) in the PAC-12 Title Game and upset then 5-0 USC. However, the Ducks were only able to amass 241 yards of total offense in that win and were beneficiaries of 3 USC turnovers. Oregon also sustained 2 bad losses this season to Cal as a 9.5-point favorite and Oregon State while being a 13.5-point chalk. Conversely, Iowa State is 8-3 and all 3 of their defeats came against current Top 25 teams. This has been a special year for Iowa State football. It was their first time winning a Big 12 regular season title and they debuted in the Conference Championship Game where they fell to Oklahoma 27-21. Furthermore, Saturday will be the first time that Iowa State has ever played a January bowl game. The Cyclones will be amped up and will cover. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a 5* wager.

NC State vs. Kentucky 12:00 PM ET

Game# 491-492

Play On: Kentucky -2.5 (5*)

We have a Kentucky team which is 4-6 as a favorite over #23 ranked NC State who enters this bowl matchup with an 8-3 record and winners of their last 4. The line doesn’t make sense and when that occurs, I side with the oddsmakers. Case in point with my winner yesterday on Mississippi State with a losing record defeating Tulsa with a winning mark 28-26. Bet on Kentucky plus the points. Bet on Kentucky plus the points for a 5* wager.

Ohio State vs. Clemson 8:00 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Ohio State +7.5 (10*)

For starters, Clemson head coach Dabo Sweeney gave the Ohio State locker room plenty of motivational press clippings after voicing his displeasure on Ohio State being included in the 4-team playoff field despite playing only 6 games. The Buckeyes will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from last season college football playoff loss to Clemson 29-23. Ohio State squandered a 16-0 lead in that contest and lost despite having an edge in total yards of 516-417. Ohio State also held almost a 7-minute edge in time of possession advantage and current quarterback Justin Fields outplayed highly prized Clemson signal caller Trevor Lawrence.

Ohio State is allowing 97 yards rushing per game this season. Conversely, Clemson is averaging 164 yards rushing per contest. These rushing stats leads us to an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below.

Any college football neutral field non-conference underdog (Ohio State) that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent (Clemson) that averages between 140 to 190 yards rushing per game, resulted in those underdogs going 22-11 (66.7%) straight up since 1992. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added relevance. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for my “College Football Game of the Year”.

Cincinnati vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET

Game# 327-328

Play On: Cincinnati +7.5 (5*)

Undefeated Cincinnati is the Group of 5 representative for the New Year’s 6 Bowl Games. Like those that came before them, the Bearcats will be a more motivated team than their SEC adversary. The Bearcats want to prove that their unblemished record is no fluke and what better way to do so than against one of the huge brands in college football. Additionally, Cincinnati has been one of the better defensive teams in all of college football while allowing just 16.0 points and 314.4 yards per game.

Georgia has gone 7-2 this season but they only earned 1 win over a team that currently has a winning record and that was Auburn (6-4) way back on 10/3. Their only other games versus teams that currently have a winning record were against Florida and Alabama. They not only lost and failed to cover both games but were outscored 85-52 while doing so. Bet on Cincinnati plus the points for a 5* wager.

Army vs. West Virginia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: Army +7.0 (5*)

Let me start by saying that I am fully aware of West Virginia having play a much more difficult schedule this season in comparison to Army. However, the Mountaineers were originally slate to play Tennessee in this bowl game, but the Volunteers had to pull out due to COVID issues. Now they are playing a service academy instead of an SEC opponent. I can’t help but think that the Mountaineers are surely disappointed in that regard and it will have a direct affect on their emotional state headed into this matchup. Furthermore, West Virginia was a perfect 5-0 in Morgantown this season but a dismal 0-4 when playing anywhere else. They averaged just a tad over 14 points scored per game in those 4 losses.

Army is 9-2 with 1 of their losses coming at #6 Cincinnati 24-10. The Black Knights have allowed only 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game this season. Additionally, West Virginia goes from playing all the pass happy offenses in the Big 12 to facing a highly efficient triple option rushing attack and having to prepare for that element on short notice.

West Virginia closed their regular season with a 42-6 blowout loss at Iowa State. Conversely Army defeated Navy 15-0 and Air Force 10-7 in their final 2 regular season games. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle shown below.

Any college football team (Army) that allowed 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games and is facing an opponent (West Virginia) that scored 6 points or less during its last contest, resulted in those teams going 43-4 (91.5%) straight up since 2011. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this game it takes on added betting value. Bet on Army plus the points for a 5* wager.

Ball State vs. San Jose State 2:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Ball State +10.0 (5*)

These two teams ended up being surprise conference champions. San Jose State has gone 7-0 and that includes 6-0-1 ATS. However, they were an underdog in 4 of those 7 conference games and a short 2.5-point favorite in another.

Ball State reeled off 6 straight wins after a season opening loss versus Miami-Ohio. The last of those wins came over Buffalo (6-1) in the MAC Championship Game and they did so as a 12.0-point underdog. As a matter of fact, the Cardinals also pulled off a double-digit underdog upset win at Toledo as well. So, they are very much comfortable in this sizable underdog role. Bet on Ball State plus the points for a 5* wager.

Mississippi State vs. Tulsa 12:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Mississippi State +1.5 (5*)

Mark this down in the point-spread that doesn’t make sense category. We have the #24 team in the country Tulsa (6-2) as just a 1.5-point favorite against a 3-7 Mississippi State team. Furthermore, the only 2 Tulsa losses came at the hands of #6 Cincinnati (10-0) by 3 in the AAC Championship Game and at #21 Oklahoma State (8-3). When it looks this easy in sports betting it very rarely is. This looks to be another prime example of such. Bet on Mississippi State for a 5* wager.

Oklahoma State vs. Miami 5:30 PM ET

Game# 295-296

Play On: Miami +2.5 (5*)

Miami quarterback D’Eriq King will be the difference in this game. The Hurricanes received a huge emotional lift when King was granted a 6th year of eligibility and will return for another season in 2021. The Hurricanes suffered 2 losses this season and they came against #2 Clemson and #13 Clemson. Oklahoma State doesn’t present the challenges as those 2 teams and that’s especially true offensively. Bet on Miami for a 5* wager.

Liberty @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Liberty +7.0 (5*)

Both teams are battle tested. Liberty went 2-1 versus ACC teams this season. They easily handled Syracuse 38-21, defeated Louisville 38-35 as a 17.0-point underdog, and lost 15-14 to #24 NC State. #23 Liberty (8-1) had a game tying field goal attempt blocked on the final play of the game in that loss to NC State. That’s how close they came to an undefeated regular season. Liberty has not only gone 8-1 straight up this season, but they also covered in 8 of those 9 games. The Flames offense has been extremely productive while averaging 39.4 points scored and 497.6 yards gained per game.

#9 Coastal Carolina (11-0) has enjoyed a memorable and massively successful season regardless of what happens in this game. Their signature wins came over #13 BYU 22-17 and over #16 UL-Lafayette (9-1) 30-27. The Chanticleers completed their regular season barely escaping with a 42-38 win over Troy in a game they were a 12.5-point favorite, and they scored the winning touchdown in the dying seconds of the 4th quarter.

Any college football underdog of 3.5 to 10.0-points (Liberty) that is coming off a conference win by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent who scored and allowed 30 or more points during its previous game, resulted in those underdogs going an outstanding 56-22 ATS (71.8%) since 1992. Bet on Liberty plus the points for a 5* wager.

UTSA vs. UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET

Game# 285-286

Play On: UL-Lafayette -14.0 (5*)

Just in case you are wondering why UL-Lafayette is such a substantial in this First Responder Bowl, they are 10-1 on the season while currently being ranked 19th by the college football playoff committee, and 16th nationally in the AP Poll. Their only loss this season was by 3 to #9 Coastal Carolina (11-0). Furthermore, the Rajun Cajuns opened this season off with a huge 31-14 at #12 Iowa State who just lost a close game to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. UL-Lafayette has also played the tougher schedule which included 6 teams that have accepted a bowl game invitation.

Conversely, UTSA has gone just 2-4 against bowl game participants. Additionally, since 2018, the Roadrunners have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21.0-points. They were outscored in those 10 contests by an average of 25.7 points per game. Bet on UL-Lafayette minus the points for a 5* wager.

Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Georgia State -3.5 (5*)

Western Kentucky has gone just 5-6 this season and went 0-5 versus this season’s bowl teams while being outscored by 17.6 points per game. Moreover, one of their wins came by a slim 3-point margin at home versus an FCS team in UT-Chattanooga. This is also an anemic Western Kentucky offense which averaged only a mere 18.8 points and 290.9 yards per game.

Georgia State is 5-4 and has averaged a healthy 32.7 points scored and 417.7 yards gained per game. As a matter of fact, the Panthers have scored 30 points or more in 7 of their 9 games this season. By comparison, today’s opponent (WKU) has scored 14 points or fewer in 6 of their 11 games. Bet on Georgia State minus the points for a 5* wager.

Hawaii vs. Houston 3:30 PM ET

Game# 277-278

Play On: Houston -9.0 (5*)

Houston enters this bowl game with just a 3-4 record. Yet, they are a sizable favorite over a 4-4 Hawaii team. Simply put, the Cougars have faced a far more difficult schedule than Hawaii has. Their 4 losses all were against bowl teams in BYU (11-1), Central Florida (7-4), Tulane (6-6), and Memphis (8-3). Furthermore, Hawaii is coming off a 38-21 victory over winless UNLV. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. The game will be played in Frisco, Texas which certainly will provide Houston an edge when it comes to travel and fans in attendance. Bet on Houston minus the points for a 5* wager.

BYU vs. Central Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Central Florida +6.0 (5*)

BYU comes in with an outstanding 10-1 record while UCF is 6-3. However, despite the records disparity, UCF has unequivocally played a tougher schedule. The Golden Knights suffered losses to #22 Tulsa by 8, #6 Cincinnati by just 3, and at Memphis by 1. BYU has faced just 1 nationally ranked opponent this season and they lost 22-17 at #11 Coastal Carolina in a game in which they closed as a 10-0-point favorite. I would not be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nevertheless, I will surely take the points and not be greedy. Bet on Central Florida plus the points for a 5* wager.

Arizona State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 225-226

Play On: Oregon State +7.5 (10*)

Arizona State is coming off a 70-7 shellacking over their winless in-state rival Arizona last Saturday. The Sun Devils have played just 3 games this season and last week marked its first win. Now they travel to Oregon State against a 2-4 Beavers team that in recent years has been a PAC-12 doormat. However, this is a better than advertised Beavers team whose 4 losses came by just a combined average of 6.3 points per contest.

Arizona State has allowed an average of just 20 points per game this season despite surrendering 423 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has bailed themselves out by forcing a whopping 11 turnovers in their 3 games played. However, they will be facing an opponent on Saturday which has only committed 6 turnovers in 6 games. Oregon State also averages a healthy 31.0 points and 450.3 yards per game in their 4 contests played at home. Bet on Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Oregon @ USC 8:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On:  Oregon +3.5 (5*)

Oregon takes the place of Washington in this PAC-12 Title Game after the Huskies were bombarded with COVID-19 issues. In my professional opinion, the game becomes more appealing with the Ducks involved and they will matchup better against USC than Washington would have.

USC is 5-0 but 3 of their wins against UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State came by way of a winning score with less than a minute to play. Without some fortunate luck that came their way, the Trojans came very easily be 2-3 at this juncture. This line speaks volumes as well. We have an undefeated team playing on their home field as a small favorite vessus an opponent that has lost twice in a Power 5 Conference Championship game. Basically, the sportsbooks are telling you if this contest were played at a neutral site it would be the line would be a pick. Bet on Oregon plus the points for a 5* wager.

Virginia @ Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Virginia Tech -2.5 (5*)

This opening line and the ensuing movement make little if any sense at all. When that occurs, I am notorious for taking a contrarian approach and being right a lot more times than not. Virginia enters this rivalry game having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Conversely, Virginia Tech is 0-4 SU&ATS in its previous 4 contests. Yet it’s the Hokies who opened as a 1.5-point home favorite and that line has since moved to 2.5. They are begging you to take the hot team as an underdog. I see it as a trap.

Virginia Tech will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s loss at Virginia 39-30. That defeat ended a 15- game Virginia Tech win streak over Virginia. Nevertheless, the Hokies still have a 10-game home unbeaten streak against their instate rival. Bet on Virginia Tech for a 5* wager.

USC @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: UCLA +3.0 (5*)

One team (USC/4-0) isn’t as good as their record indicates. The other (UCLA/3-2) is better than its record shows. The Trojans needed a bit of luck and improbable occurrences to occur in their first 2 games against Arizona and Arizona State. UCLA lost to currently unbeaten Colorado in their season opener. They also were narrowly defeated at Oregon 38-35 in a game they were a sizable 18-point underdog. They are a confident bunch heading into this matchup of teams playing for city bragging rights. Bet on UCLA plus the points for a 5* wager.

Boise State @ Wyoming 6:00 PM ET

Game# 129-130

Play On: Wyoming +11.5 (5*)

Wyoming is coming off an upset loss at New Mexico 17-16. On a positive note, they have gone 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss this season. This will only the 2nd home game for the Cowboys. They were an easy 31-7 winner over Hawaii in their home opener in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. Playing a game in Laramie, Wyoming during the 2nd week of December is pretty much unchartered waters. The team who able to run the ball most effectively is likely to get the cover. I like Wyoming’s chances to do so and in turn makes them a viable home underdog betting value in this spot. Play on Wyoming plus the points for a 5* wager.