UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET

Game# 229-230

Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*)

UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State.

Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup.

Give me Houston minus the points.

Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*)

This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog.

Give me Liberty plus the points.

Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)

This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.

Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.

Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*)

North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State.

Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value.

Give me Clemson minus the points.

Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*)

Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002.

College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Give me Purdue plus the points.

LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*)

Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover.

Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*)

These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch.

Give me Fresno State plus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*)

Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages.

Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer.

College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)

These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.

Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.

North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*)

UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action.

Give me UTSA minus the points.

Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)

You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.

Give me Oregon State plus the points.

Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)

College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992.

Give me Louisville plus the small number.

Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*)

College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest.

Give me Northern Illinois minus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*)

I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week.

Give me James Madison minus the points.

Nebraska @ Iowa 4:00 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Iowa -10.5 (10*)

Nebraska is 0-5 in their last 5 games and scored 14 or less on 4 of those occasions. Iowa is a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and allowed 13 points or less in all 4 of those games while also recording a turnover differential of +7. As a matter of fact, the Hawkeyes have allowed 13 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. Iowa has defeated Nebraska 7 straight times.

College Football conference home favorites of 10.5 to 17.5 that are coming off a conference win by 48 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Nebraska) coming off a loss by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those conference home favorites withing the above stated point-spread going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 2006.

Give me Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Western Kentucky @ Auburn 4:00 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: Western Kentucky +5.5

This comes down to some fundamental college football handicapping principles. Auburn has endured a season to forget thus far and has lost 5 of its last 6 games. During their 3 wins versus FBS opponents this season they outscored their opponents by only a combined 14 points. Here’s the topper, up next for Auburn is a bitter rivalry game with Alabama. This is a text book flat spot for an already struggling Tigers team.

Western Kentucky has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games and won 3 of those contests straight up. Their only 2 SU losses came by exactly 3 points at Indiana and at UTSA. During those 5 away contests, the Hilltoppers averaged 40.2 points scored and 494.6 yards per game.

Give me Western Kentucky plus the points.

Texas @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Texas -9.0 (5*)

Any conference away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 with a win percentage of .44 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .285 or better, resulted in those away favorites going 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 2009.

Give me Texas minus the points.

Duke @ Pittsburgh 12:00 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*)

College Football home favorites of 3.0 to 12.0 that are coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and have a win percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better coming off 3 consecutive wins with all versus conference opponents, resulted in those home favorites going 41-9 (82%) ATS since 1996.

Give me Pittsburgh minus the points.

Northwestern @ Purdue 12:00 PM ET

Game# 345-346

Play On: Purdue -17.0 (5*)

College Football favorites of 13.0 to 20.0 with a winning record, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .250 or worse and is coming off 7 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those favorites going 19-0 ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by a substantial average of 29.8 points per game.

Give me Purdue minus the points.

Connecticut @ Army 12:00 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Army -10.0 (5*)

File this one in the just doesn’t make sense category. We have a UConn football program that’s been revived to relevance under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The Huskies are bowl eligible with a 6-5 record and are about to an Army team that’s an awful 1-6 this season versus FBS opponents. Yet, Army is a double-digit favorite over the upstart Huskies. Can you say contrarian pick? I certainly can just out of a matter of principle.

Give me Army minus the points.

San Diego State @ New Mexico 9:45 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: San Diego State -14.0 (5*)

San Diego State is 6-4 (.600) and is facing a New Mexico team who’s 2-8 (.200). Additionally, the Lobos have lost 7 consecutive games in a row heading into tonight, and they failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle listed below. During this 7-game New Mexico losing streak, they were outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game. San Diego State has won 8 straight over New Mexico.

College Football away favorites of 13.0 to 21.5 with a winning record, versus opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’re coming off 6 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those road favorites going 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 2013.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*)

I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners.

If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well.

College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest.

Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Alabama @ Ole Miss 3:30 PM ET

Game# 205-206

Play On: Alabama -12.0 (5*)

Alabama is 7-2 and coming off an upset loss at Tennessee in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Yet, here they are as a double-digit road favorite 7 days later versus #11 Ole Miss (8-1) with a lot to play for with regards to College Football Playoff aspirations. We need to think like an oddsmaker in this spot and go against public perception. Besides, since 2001, College Football away double-digit favorites that are coming off an away double-digit favorite upset loss, resulted in those teams going 8-1 ATS and 9-0. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 26.7 points per game. Roll Tide Roll!

Give me Alabama minus the points.

Northwestern @ Minnesota 3:30 PM ET

Game# 171-172

Play On: Minnesota -17.0 (5*)

Northwestern has been offensively anemic this season while scoring just 16.7 points per games. That ranks #126 out of 131 teams playing Division 1 football. Conversely, Minnesota is #4 nationally in scoring defense and allows only 14.2 points per game. The Golden Gophers are also #16 nationally in rushing offense while Northwestern is an abysmal #112 defending the run. Not exactly an ideal matchup for a mightily struggling Northwestern team.

After winning their season opener versus Nebraska, the Northwestern Wildcats have lost 8 consecutive games. Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins which has improved their season record to 6-3 (.667). This sets up an extremely profitable College Football betting angle displayed below.

College Football favorites of 13.5 to 19.5-points with a winning record, facing opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’ve lost 6 or more consecutive games, resulted in those favorites going 26-4 ATS (86.6%) since 2013. The favorites were also a perfect 30-0 SU and won by an average of 238.1 points per game.

Give me Minnesota minus the points.

Ball State @ Toledo 8:00 PMET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Toledo -11.0 (5*)

Toledo is coming off a 27-24 road win at Eastern Michigan. Ball State is coming off a 27-20 win at Kent State in a game they closed as a +6.5 underdog. This sets up an exceptional College Football betting angle displayed below.

College Football home favorites of 9.5 to 23.5 (Toledo) that aren’t undefeated and they’re coming off a road win, versus an opponent (Ball State) with a win percentage of .636 or less who is coming off a conference win as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those home favorites going  25-2 ATS (92.5%) since 2005.

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET

Game# 395-396

Play On: Vanderbilt +6.5 (5*)

South Carolina cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season 2 weeks ago. However, it was short lived after being knocked off by Missouri 23-10 as a 3.5-point home favorite. Now they enter this matchup against lowly Vanderbilt as just a touchdown road favorite.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have lost 4 straight since opening the season 3-1. However, 3 of those 4 losses came at the hands of #6 Alabama, #3 Georgia, and #11 Ole Miss. Their other loss came at Missouri 17-14 in a game they easily covered as a 14.0-point road underdog.

This goes right down to the wire. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points.

Auburn @ Mississippi State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 397-398

Play On: Mississippi State -12.5 (5*)

Since starting the season 2-0, Auburn has lost 5 of their last 6, and quite frankly were extremely lucky in the lone win in that sequence when Missouri handed them a 17-4 victory in overtime. The Tigers missed a chip shot 22-yard field goal on the final play of regulation time, and then fumbled at the Auburn 1 in overtime which would have given them the win. All the negativity surrounding the football program and its obvious lack of success resulted in head coach Brian Harsin being fired this past Sunday.

Mississippi State has struggled in SEC away games which is evidenced by an 0-3 SU&ATS record in those contests. However, the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 at home, and each of those victories came by 18 points or greater. They’ve also scored 40 points or more in all 4 at home. On the other hand, Auburn has scored 24 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games versus FBS opponents. Auburn has also allowed 41 points or more in each of their previous 3 games.

Give me Mississippi State minus the points.

Clemson @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: Notre Dame +4.0 (5*)

Unlike other past Clemson teams that have contended for a national title, this 8-0 Tigers team has managed to escape with a trio of 1 score wins, and it includes each of their previous 2 games played. Those last 2 wins each came by exactly 6 points over Syracuse and Florida State. They also beat Wake Forest in overtime earlier this season.

Notre Dame ran the ball down Syracuse’s throat last week while amassing 246 yards rushing and average over 5 yards per running attempt. Florida State showed a few weeks back that Clemson can be run on. The Seminoles had 206 yards rushing in that contest while also averaging a robust 6.1 yards per attempt. The strength of this Notre Dame team is running the ball behind an outstanding offensive line. This will be just the 11th time since 2008 that Notre Dame will be a home underdog. They went 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in their previous 11 in that role. Furthermore, if the Irish didn’t enter those games undefeated, they were a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS. The Irish started the season 2-0, but they’ve rebounded to win 5 of their last 6.

Give me Notre Dame plus the points.

Troy @ UL-Lafayette 5:00 PM ET

Game# 391-392

Play On: Troy -3.5 (5*)

Troy is coming off a Sun Belt Conference 10-6 win at South Alabama in their previous game. That victory was the 5th in a row for the Trojans and improved their season record to 6-2. Their only 2 losses came at nationally ranked Ole Miss 28-10 and at Appalachian State 32-28 when they allowed a miracle Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game. It’s been a to0ugh transition for UL-Lafayette in the first year since former head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job. They Rajun Cajuns are just 3-4 this season versus FBS teams.

College Football away favorites of between 3.5 and 10.0 with a win percentage of .428 or better (Troy) who scored and allowed 17 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (UL-Lafayette) coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going an unbeaten 8-0 ATS since 2018. It is a short sample size, but those 8 road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 won those contests by an average of 32.1 points per game. This is a strong betting situation for the road favorite.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET

Game# 399-400

Play On: Georgia -8.0 (5*)

Here’s the thing, Georgia remains #1 and Tennessee #2 in the AP Poll. However, the first College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week and had Tennessee #1 and Georgia #3. As if the Bulldogs needed any more incentive while playing at home. I look for the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs to win and easily cover.

Both teams enter this game with identical 8-0 season records. Georgia is coming off a 42-20 win over Florida. Georgia has won 15 straight home games versus FBS opponents and includes going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 19.0.

Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 (Georgia) with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a conference win by 21 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tennessee) with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-2 ATS and 17-0 SU since 2006. The average victory margin in those 17 contests was 17.6 points per game.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)

This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.

Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.

Kentucky @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Missouri +1.0 (5*)

Kentucky was blown out 44-6 at #1 Tennessee last Saturday. After starting the season 4-0, the Wildcats have lost 3 of its last 4, and had a turnover margin of -5.

Missouri is coming off a 23-10 upset win at South Carolina last Saturday. Missouri is 4-4 (.500) this season but 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to #3 Georgia 26-22. The Missouri defense has been outstanding during their previous 3 games while allowing only 16.0 points and 268.3 yards per contest. They’ll be facing a Kentucky offense that over its last 4 games has averaged only just 16.5 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game.

College Football home teams with a in percentage of .500 or worse (Missouri) playing before Game 12 and they’re coming off an underdog SU upset win, versus an opponent coming off a road loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 2013. If those home teams had a point-spread parameter of +3.5 to -9.5 they were 11-0 SU&ATS since 2013 and won by an average of 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Missouri Tigers in this one.

Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Coastal Carolina +3.0 (5*)

Appalachian State enters this contest with a somewhat disappointing 5-3 record. That includes 2 Sun Belt Conferences losses to James Madison as a 6.0-point favorite and at Texas State as a sizable 19.0-point chalk.

Coastal Carolina is coming off last Saturday’s 24-13 win at Marshall and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. That victory improved the Chanticleers season record to 7-1 (.875). Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6.0 and +11.0. The Chanticleers will also be out to revenge last year’s 30-27 upset loss at Appalachian State. Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6 to +11.0 and with an average victory margin of 10.5 points per game.

Any conference home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those home teams going 52-5 (91.2%) straight up since 2018. This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog in this matchup. Additionally, if those home teams had a point-spread parameter of between -6.0 and +11.0 they were 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.2 points per game.

Give me Coastal Carolina plus the points.

Buffalo @ Ohio 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (5*)

Ohio is coming off a 24-17 home win over Northern Illinois and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bobcats are now 3-1 in conference action. However, there’s a red flag when considering they’re allowing 486.0 yards per game in those contests.

Buffalo got off to a terrible 0-3 start in the non-conference portions of their schedule. Nonetheless, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 and all versus conference opponents. Their most recent victory was a 34-27 home victory over Toledo. During their last 4 contests, the Bulls defense is allowing 15.3 points and 349.3 yards per game while also forcing 11 turnovers.

Any conference road favorite of 1.5 or more that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponenta with a win percentage of less than .666 and off a conference SU underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin came by an enormous 23.7 points per game.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

Missouri @ South Carolina 4:00 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Missouri +4.0 (5*)

Missouri is coming off an uninspiring 17-14 home win over Vanderbilt and they now possess a season record of 3-4. However, their previous 3 losses came by a combined 14 points versus Auburn, Florida, and #1 Georgia. Since a 40-12 loss at Kansas State, Missouri has allowed just 19.6 points and 319.8 yards per game during their last 5 contests.

Missouri enters this game having gone 10-18 SU in their last 28 road games and that includes 0-3 this season. South Carolina is on a current 4-0 SU&ATS run. By doing so they’ve cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season. Their most recent win came at home 30-24 over Texas A&M.

With all being considered, this is an extremely fishy line. We have a Top 25 teams at home laying a short number versus an opponent with a losing record. When it looks too easy in sports betting, more times than not it isn’t.

College Football Road Underdogs of 9.5 or less (Missouri) with a losing record who are coming off a conference win by 7 points or fewer, and they’ve won 16 or fewer of their last 28 away games, versus an opponent (South Carolina) with a win percentage of .250 or better that scored 20 points or more during its previous game, resulted in those road underdogs of 9.5 or less going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin for those 13 road underdogs came by 10.9 points per game.

Give me Missouri plus the points.

Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*)

Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1.

Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below.

Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game.

Give me Louisville plus the points.

Ohio State @ Penn State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 135-136

Play On: Ohio State -15.0 (5*)

Penn State is coming off an impressive 45-17 home win over Minnesota which improved their season record to 6-1. However, the sportsbooks apparently weren’t swayed by that result as they’ve made the Nittany Lions a better than 2-touchdown home underdog against #2 Ohio State (7-0). After failing to cover their first 2 games of the season, Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS since with an average victory margin of 41.8 points per game.

College Football away favorites of 13.5 to 21.0 with a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Penn State) with a win percentage of .272 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those road favorites withing that point-spread parameter going 23-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average margin of victory in those 23 contests came by 29.2 points per game.

Give me Ohio State minus the points.

Louisiana Tech @ FIU 8:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: FIU +6.5 (5*)

Louisiana Tech has gone a dismal 1-5 versus FBS teams this season and allowed 31 points or more in each contest. Additionally, they allowed 38 points or more on 5 of those 6 occasions. During those 6 games the Bulldogs committed an alarmingly high 15 turnovers. That’s especially concerning when considering FIU has forced 7 turnovers during its last 2 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a 42-41 home loss to Rice in their previous game.  Since 2020, Louisiana Tech is 0-6 SU&ATRS on the road following a loss in their previous game.

FIU is far from a good team. However, they’re coming off a confidence building 34-15 win at Charlotte in their previous game and racked up a season high 453 yards of total offense. That win improved their season record to 3-4 overall and 2-4 versus FBS teams.

This is a case of taking the lesser of 2 evils and based on all the above, there’s plenty of betting value on the home underdog in this contest. Give me FIU plus the points.

Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 409-410

Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*)

Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt.  Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright.

We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

UCLA @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Oregon -6.0 (5*)

The #10 Oregon Ducks have reeled off 5 consecutive wins since suffering a humiliating 49-3 loss to #1 Georgia in their season opener. They will be facing #9 UCLA that comes in with an unbeaten 6-0 record. Yet, it’s the lower ranked 1-loss Ducks who come up as a touchdown favorite versus the undefeated UCLA Bruins. It comes as no surprise to me that greater than 60% of tickets bet and money wagered has gone on UCLA. I am taking the contrarian approach in this one.

Give me Oregon minus the points.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech 3:00 PM ET

Game# 387-388

Play On: Texas Tech -5.0 (5*)

West Virginia has gone just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference away games. The Mountaineers are 3-3. However, they’ve allowed an alarming 38 points or more in 4 of 5 contests versus FBS teams.

Texas Tech is coming off conference losses in each of their previous 2 games by scores of 41-31 at #11 Oklahoma State and 37-28 at #17 Kansas State. As a matter of fact, all 3 of Texas Tech losses have come versus ranked opponents with the other defeat at #23 NC State. The Red Raiders had last week off and will be ready to go on Saturday against a West Virginia. They’ve beaten West Virginia in each of the previous 3 meetings. The Red Raiders are a perfect 3-0 at home thus far which includes quality wins over Texas and Houston.

College Football conference home favorites of -5.0 to -21.0 (Texas Tech) who’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (West Virginia) with a win percentage of .500 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-4 ATS (84.6%) since 2018.

Give me Texas Tech minus the points.

Memphis @ East Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: East Carolina -5.0 (5*)

Since the start of the 2016 season, Memphis has gone an abysmal 0-12 ATS as a road underdog of 1.5 or greater and lost by an average of 18.8 points per game. Furthermore, Memphis is coming off a gut-wrenching 33-32 home loss to Houston in a game they led 32-19 with less than 2 minutes to play. It’s hard to imagine that not taking a mental toll on players and the coaching staff.

East Carolina is coming off a disappointing 24-9 loss at Tulane which evened their record at 3-3. The Pirates responded very well after their previous 2 losses with wins over Old Dominion 39-21 and South Florida 48-28. The Pirates offense averages 475 yards gained per game this season and its defense allows 1 point per 18.6 yards gained which is terrific by college football standards. This is a great spot for the Pirates.

Give me East Carolina minus the points.

Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*)

Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite.

Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest.

Give me Purdue minus the points.

Oklahoma State @ TCU 3:30 ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: TCU -3.5 (5*)

TCU is coming off a 38-31 road win over previously unbeaten Kansas and improved to a perfect 5-0 on the season. Oklahoma State is coming off a 41-31 home win over Texas Tech and they also remain undefeated. TCU will be out to revenge last season’s embarrassing 63-17 loss at Oklahoma State. This sets up a very profitable college football betting angle displayed below.

Any undefeated home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a conference win by 24 points or less, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .727 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter to go 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2001.

Give me TCU minus the points.

Iowa State @ Texas 12:00 ET

Game# 187-188

Play On: Texas -15.5 (5*)

Texas will be playing with big time revenge after losing to Iowa State in each of the previous 3 meetings. I say this because it’s unlikely that Texas will take their foot off the gas peddle even if they possess a comfortable lead.

Texas will be facing an Iowa State team with anemic offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones have scored 11 points or fewer in 3 of their 6 games this season. Conversely, Texas has allowed 20 points or fewer in 5 of its 6 games. Additionally, the Texas offense unlike Iowa State has been dynamic on most occasions thus far. Case in point, the Longhorns have scored 34 points or more in 5 of 6 games with the lone exception coming in a 20-19 loss to #3 Alabama. This isn’t a good matchup for Iowa State even despite of their stellar defense.

Give me Texas minus the points.

Auburn @ Ole Miss 12:00 PM ET

Game# 179-180

Play On: Ole Miss -14.5 (5*)

This is another big-time revenge situation for the favorite. Ole Miss will be highly motivated to snap a 6-game losing streak to Auburn and I truly believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The #9 Rebels enter this week with a perfect 6-0 record and they’re allowing just 14.5 points and 334.2 yards per game. Their offense is no slouch as well at 39.7 points and 490.3 yards per game.

On the other side of the coin is an Auburn offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their last 4 games. During that 4-game stretch, the Tigers had an awful -9 turnover differential. Throughout that identical span, Auburn’s defense allowed 213.8 yards per game. They’ll have their hands full against an Ole Miss offense which averages 242 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per running attempt. Auburn doesn’t match up well at all in this SEC contest.

Any college football conference home favorite (Ole Miss) of between 13.0 and 17.0 that’s coming off a conference away favorite cover in which they scored 41 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Auburn) whose coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those conference home favorites within that exact point-spread parameter going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by 24.3 points per game.

Give me Ole Miss minus the points.

Penn State @ Michigan 12:00 ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Michigan -7.0 (5*)

Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 10.0 (Michigan) that’s playing after Game 5 and is coming off 3 straight wins which all came over conference opponents, versus a team (Penn State) coming off a conference win by 10 or more and allowed 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorite 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2017. The average victory margin for the home teams came by 22.9 points per game.

Give me Michigan minus the points.

UL-Lafayette @ Marshall 7:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Marshall -10.0 (5*)

Marshall is coming off a 28-7 win in their previous game. UL-lafatette lost each of their previous 2 games by scores of 21-17 and 20-17. These results set up into a rare but unblemished college football angle which has gone unbeaten since 1981.

Any college football home favorite of between 8.0 to 14.0 that’s coming off a win by 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses which each came by 4 points or less, resulted in those home favorites within these point-spread parameters going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average victory margin by the home favorites in those contests came by an average of 23.7 points per game.

Give me Marshall minus the points.

Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: USC -12.5 (10*)

This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt.  During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon.

Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons.

Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game.

Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Utah @ UCLA 3:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: UCLA +3.5

Utah is coming off a 42-16 home win over Oregon State and covered easily as a 10.5-point favorite. UCLA is coming off a 40-32 home win over Washington and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That win improved the Bruins season record to 5-0.

Any college football conference home underdog of 7.5 or less whose won 3 or more games in a row, and their previous game was against a conference opponent, versus a team (Utah) coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2018. The home underdogs went 14-3 SU as well.

Give me UCLA plus the points.

Louisville @ Virginia 12:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Virginia +3.0 (5*)

Louisville is coming off a 34-33 loss at Boston College in a game they closed as a 13.5-point favorite. That upset loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). That record includes 0-3 SU&ATS versus fellow ACC teams. Virginia enters this week 2-3 while going 0-3 on the road but they’re 2-0 at home.

Any college football home team (Virginia) with a win percentage of .363 or better, versus an opponent coming off a conference upset loss as a favorite of -10.0 to -17.0, and that road team has a losing record, resulted in those home teams 23-2 SU (92%) since 2007. The SU betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the hone underdog Virginia Cavaliers.

Give me Virginia plus the points.

TCU @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Kansas +7.0 (5*)

I was on TCU last week as a 6.0-point home underdog and they came through after blowing out Oklahoma 55-24. That win improved TCU to 4-0 on the season. However, my over 2 decades of experience reminds me that teams coming off an upset win at home versus a nationally ranked opponent are more times than not flat in their following game. I firmly believe that mental aspect will come into play when they travel to Lawrence, Kansas to take on an upstart Jayhawks team which has started the season 5-0.

Any college football home underdog (Kansas) who’s undefeated and is playing after Game 5 of the season, and they won 24 or less of their previous 28 home games, versus an opponent coming off a SU win and they have a win percentage of .833 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1982. Those home underdogs also went 17-2 SU in those 19 contests.

Give me Kansas plus the points.

Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*)

Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense.

Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game.

Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS.

Give me LSU plus the points.

Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*)

Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins.  It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced.

Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points.

SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*)

Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays.

SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week.

Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points.

Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*)

Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game.

Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points.

Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*)

Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College.

Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task.

Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner.

Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*)

TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below.

Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points.

Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*)

Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points.

UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*)

The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch.

After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak.

Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points.

USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*)

Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*)

The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense.

Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points.

Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET

Game# 339-340

Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*)

Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points.

Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*)

Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022.

Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points.

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*)

Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game.

Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number.

UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET

Game# 193-194

Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*)

Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day.

Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points.

Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 161-162

Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*)

Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below.

Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points.

Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)

Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move.

Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role.

Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points.

Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*)

Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game.

Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET

Game# 347-348

Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*)

Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater.

Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave.

Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*)

This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game.

Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points.

Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 335-336

Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*)

You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side.

Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number.

North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*)

Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games.

Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points.

Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET

Game# 329-330

Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*)

Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5.

Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season.

Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points.

Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*)

Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up.

Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points.

Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET

Game# 233-234

Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*)

It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels.

This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points.

Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*)

After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos.

Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points.

Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Army +2.5 (10*)

Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them.

Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play.

Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: UTSA +4.0

This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0.

UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points.

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*)

West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home.

Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points.

Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*)

These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps.

Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama.

The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number.

LSU vs. Kansas State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 285-286

Play On: LSU +7.5 (5*)

LSU will be missing several players for various reasons in addition to playing with an interim coaching staff. However, there’s still enough talented players and quality depth for them to make this an extremely close game if not pulling off an outright upset. The Tigers defense showed vast improvement in the final third of their regular season schedule. Specifically speaking, LSU held their last 4 opponents 18.5 points and 299.5 yards gained per game. It’s not like they were facing all creampuffs over that stretch with 3 of those contests coming against #1 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, and #23 Texas A&M. The Bayou Bengals stop unit will be going against a Kansas State offense that was held under 300 total yards in each of their previous 3 games. Bet LSU plus the points.

Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 281-282

Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*)

Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season.

Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”.

Kentucky vs. Iowa 1:00 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Kentucky -3.0 (5*)

Iowa is coming off a humiliating 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship game. As good as Iowa’s record is, the Hawkeyes have failed to record a win versus a current Top 25 team this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left a lot to be desired. The Hawkeyes scored 17 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 games and they have averaged only 293.7 yards gained per contest this season.

This is an intriguing matchup between #25 Kentucky (9-3) and #17 Iowa (10-3). Yet, the lower ranked Kentucky Wildcats are the favorite and I trust the oddsmakers unequivocally more than the pollsters. Kentucky finished the season on a 3-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by a combined 142-54. Kentucky went 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of 6.0 or less. The Wildcats will be more excited and ready to play in the New Year’s Day bowl game. Bet Kentucky minus the points.

Penn State vs. Arkansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Penn State +2.5 (5*)

Penn State may be 7-5 but they’re a lot better than their record indicates. All 5 of the Nittany Lions losses came by single digit margins and that includes 4 defeats by 4 points or fewer. Their last 3 losses came against #7 Ohio State (10-2) by 9, #2 Michigan (12-1) by 3, and #11 Michigan State (11-2) by 3. They also lost to #17 Iowa (10-3). Conversely, Arkansas started the season 4-0 and went just 4-4 in their final 4 games. Arkansas is a run-heavy offense which is verified by 64.7% of their offensive snaps being rushing attempts. They Razorbacks will have their hands full against a Penn State defense that has allowed only 106 yards rushing per game and a mere 3.1 yards per attempt. Bet Penn State plus the points.

Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*)

Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks.

Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Cincinnati vs. Alabama 3:30 PM ET

Game# 273-24

Play On: Cincinnati +13.5 (5*)

I’m among the minority of people who thinks Cincinnati is more than capable of giving Alabama all it can handle in this College Football Playoff Semifinal. Granted, the Crimson Tide routed then #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship game 41-24 while amassing 556 yards of total offense. However, Georgia’s defensive strength is their front 7. Their secondary was exposed against Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young has been off the charts good this season. However, the Cincinnati secondary is amongst the finest in all of college football. The Bearcats ranked #2 nationally in passing yards allowed and has a pair of cornerbacks that will be playing on Sundays in the NFL.

Cincinnati has a hidden gem of a quarterback in 4-year starter Desmon Ritter who accounted for a combined 36 touchdowns this season running and passing. Ritter has rushed for over 2000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his college career which brings an added dimension for Alabama’s defense to deal with. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go right down to the wire and possibly even an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the generous number being afforded to me. Bet Cincinnati plus the points.

Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*)

Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry.

It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Oregon vs. Oklahoma 9:15 PM ET

Game# 253-254

Play On: Oklahoma -6.5 (5*)

Both teams lost their head coach following their final regular season game. Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for the USC job and Oregon’s Mario Cristobal bolted for the Miami Fla. job. I think Oklahoma made a brilliant motivational move by bringing in legendary former Sooners head coach Bob Stoops to take over during this interim period. Besides the loss of Cristobal, Oregon is a shell of the team which we saw upset Ohio State on the road earlies this season and was in the playoff hunt until late in the season. Bet Oklahoma minus the points.

Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*)

#19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Virginia Tech vs. Maryland 2:15 PM ET

Game# 249-250

Play On: Maryland -3.5 (5*)

Virginia Tech has lost numerous players via the transfer portal or opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. They will also have to reach way down the depth chart at quarterback after their starter entered the transfer portal and the backup is unavailable as well. Additionally, the Hokies will be playing with an interim head coach due to Justin Fuentes getting fired late in the year and their entire coaching staff is operating in lame duck status. The Hokies finished the season with an upset win over Virginia. However, Virginia Tech has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games this season immediately following a loss.

Maryland started the season 4-0 and then last 6 of its next 7 games before defeating Rutgers in their last contest to become bowl eligible at 6-6. The Terrapins aren’t very good defensively, but they did score 31 points or more in 7 of its last 8 games, and they’re #14 nationally in passing yards at 307.1 per game. Bet Maryland minus the points.

West Virginia vs. Minnesota 10:15 PM ET

Game# 245-246

Play On: West Virginia +5.5 (5*)

This line makes no sense. Minnesota is 8-4 and less than a touchdown favorite versus a 5-6 West Virginia team who went 2-6 versus teams playing in a bowl game. The Mountaineers enter this Guaranteed Rate Bowl game with some momentum after winning their final 2 regular season contest and surprisingly ending up in a bowl game despite their losing record. You can make a strong case that West Virginia will be far more motivated to play in this bowl game than Minnesota will be. Bet West Virginia plus the points.

Air Force vs. Louisville 3:15 PM ET

Game# 239-240

Play On: Louisville +1.5 (5*)

Louisville has played a much tougher regular season schedule than Air Force has and that will pay dividends in this matchup. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks see this as an even matchup despite Louisville being 6-6 and Air Force at 9-3. Those season record disparities and this current line can mislead the novice sports bettors out there. Thankfully, I’m not in that category. Bet on Louisville.

North Texas vs. Miami-Ohio 3:30 PM ET

Game# 291-292

Play On: North Texas +3.0 (5*)

Somehow the MAC has 7 teams invited to bowl games and that includes Miami-Ohio who went just 5-6 this season. The early results haven’t been very good as MAC teams are 0-4 thus far. Miami posted just 1 win all season versus an opponent with a winning record. They lost their regular season finale 48-47 to Kent State in a game they allowed 303 yards rushing. That’s not a good sign in regards to this Frisco Football Classic matchup against an opponent in North Texas that has rushed for 321 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. North Texas started the season 1-6 but then finished 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 while winning by a sizable margin of 19.6 points per game. It must be noted, North Texas routed nationally ranked UTSA in their regular season finale 45-23 in a game the Roadrunners entered with a perfect 11-0 record. Bet North Texas plus the points.

Missouri vs. Army 8:00 PM ET

Game# 225-226

Play On: Missouri +7.0 (5*)

Public betting trends have heavily sided with Army since the opening line for this Armed Forces Bowl matchup has been dropped. As a matter of fact, Army has gone from an opening 3.0-point favorite to as high as 7.0 at the time of this writing. Part of the reason for this huge line move is that Missouri will be without star running back Tyler Badie who accounted for for 1934 total yards from scrimmage and scored 18 touchdowns this season. Brady Cook has been named the starter at quarterback for Missouri which is a bit of a surprise when considering his limited experience. However, since arriving on campus last season Cook has gone 25-31 passing for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns versus 0 interceptions. Missouri is a balanced offensive team that averages 36 runs and 35 passes per game. Missouri is an uninspiring 6-6 heading into the bowl season. Nevertheless, 4 of their 6 wins came over bowl participants and their regular season schedule saw them face 10 of 12 opponents that will be playing in postseason games.

Army is a deceiving 8-4 when considering 1 of their wins came against Bucknell that plays at the FCS level in addition to victories over Massachusetts and Connecticut who are arguably the worst FBS programs in college football. Army is also coming off an upset loss to bitter rival Navy (4-8) 17-13 in a game their potent rushing attack was held to 124 yards which is 154 yards below its season average. The similarity between Navy and Missouri is both played a much tougher slate than the Black Knights. Bet Missouri plus the points.

Marshall vs. UL-Lafayette 9:15 PM ET

Game# 217-218

Play On: Marshall +4.5 (5*)

We have #16 UL-Lafayette who has won 12 straight games since losing their season opener at Texas as just a 4.0-point favorite versus a 7-5 Marshall team from Conference USA. This game has trap written all over it as they’re pleading with you to take the ranked favorite at an inviting number over an opponent who’s mediocre on paper. Not to mention, this game is being played in New Orleans, Louisiana. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Give me Marshall plus the points.

Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*)

Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty 5:45 PM ET

Game# 213-214

Play On: Liberty -9.5 (5*)

The Liberty Flames are coming off a disappointing 7-5 season which included finishing regular season play 0-3 SU&ATS. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a sizable favorite against an Eastern Michigan team that sports an identical 7-5 record. It must be noted, those last 3 losses by Liberty came to #8 Ole Miss (10-2), #16 UL-Lafayette (12-1) and Army (8-4). The Flames also own 4 wins over teams participating in bowl games. Liberty has outgained their opponents by 112.7 yards per game this season. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by 49.4 yards per contest. Bet on Liberty minus the points.

UAB vs. BYU 3:30 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: UAB +7.0 (5*)

This line makes no sense to me. BYU is ranked #12 in the country with a stellar 10-2 record. They have quality wins over #10 Utah, Mountain West Conference Champion Utah State, in addition to bowl teams Arizona State, Washington State, and Virginia. Additionally, BYU finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. Yet here they are playing in the low-profile Independence Bowl against a team from Conference USA with an 8-4 season record. There’s no doubt in my mind that UAB will be more motivated to be playing BYU than visa-versa. When it comes to minor bowl games motivation is a key handicapping component to consider. UAB has unequivocally faced the weaker schedule of these 2 teams. However, they did give #24 UTSA (12-1) all they can handle in a 34-31 road loss in a game they outgained the Roadrunners 474-375. Bet UAB plus the points.

Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*)

Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager.