Davidson @ George Mason 12:00 ET

Game# 601-602

Play On: George Mason -4.0 (5*)

Davidson has gone a dismal 3-7 in their last 10 which includes bad home losses to Delaware and Northeastern.  George Mason will be in a sour mood after coming off a 63-62 loss at St. louis. Now they return home where it has gone a perfect 9-0 this season. Davidson is #316 nationally in 3-point shooting. George Mason is #32 at defending the 3-point line. So much for the underdog’s ability to knock down 3-point shots as the great equalizer.

Give me George Mason minus the points.

VCU @ Dayton 9:00 PM ET

Game# 881-882

Play On: Dayton -7.0 (5*)

VCU is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in conference play, and much of their success can be attributed to making a red-hot 48.6% of its 3-point shots during those contests. However, they’ll be facing a Dayton team who ranks #3 nationally in 3-points defense while allowing the opposition to make a mere 26.8% of their long-distance attempts.

Dayton was ranked in the Top 25 in most preseason polls. Then they started the season 5-5 and were written off as being overrated. Ever since then, they’ve reeled of 7 straight wins. Included in this current win streak is a 4-0 SU&ATS versus conference opponents and with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game.

Give me Dayton minus the points.

Utah @ UCLA 11:00 PM ET

Game# 849-850

Play On: Under 136.5 (5*)

Both teams are strong defensively. Utah is #19 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UCLA is #9. Furthermore, Utah is #4 nationally in 3-point defense and UCLA is #19. UCLA is currently on an 11-game win streak and allowed 66 points or fewer on each of those occasions. The Bruins have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 with a combined average of 125.0 points scored per game. Utah has seen its last 4 contest average only a combined 126.8 points scored per game. Utah has played 3-1 to the under in true road games this season and there was only a combined 127.8 points scored per contest.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Rutgers @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET

Game# 745-746

Play On: Under 127.5 (5*)

This total is this low for good reason. Both teams prefer to play at a slower pace offensively and each are superb defensively. Northwester is #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Rutgers is #3. Northwestern is #232 and Rutgers #246 in the country when it comes to tempo. Both teams average approximately 66 offensive possessions per 40 minutes. Both teams rank amongst the bottom third of college basketball when it comes to 3-point shooting. Northwestern is #270 in that category and Rutgers #331. I am not going to let this low number scare me away and neither should you.

Give me this game to go under the total.

UConn @ Marquette 7:00 ET

Game# 707-708

Play On: Over 147.5 (5*)

These are two of the best offensive teams in the country. UConn is #8 in the nation when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency and Marquette is #11. Marquette has played 8-2 (80%) to the over at home this season and that includes 6-0 over if there's a total of 153.0 or less. Those 6 contests averaged an enormous 157.5 points scored per game. Conversely, UConn has played 3-0 to the over in their previous 3 when there was a total of 143.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 162.7 points scored per contest.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Alabama @ Arkansas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 697-698

Play On: Arkansas -102 (ML) (5*)

If you've been following College Basketball this season, then you're well aware of how good Alabama is. However, Arkansas isn't too shabby as well. The Razorbacks are 8-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. Historically, Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas has long been one of the toughest places for opponents to walk away with a win and has been for a long time. The building seats 19,000 plus fans and is more times than not filled to capacity for high profile games such as this one. Arkansas is #9 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 88.8 points per their opponents 100 offensive possessions. Here's the telling factor to me. Arkansas is #23 nationally while forcing turnovers on 23.5% of opponent's offensive possessions. For as many things that Alabama does very weel, protecting the basketball isn't one of them. The Crimson Tide commits turnovers on 20.8% of their offensive possessions.

Give me Arkansas on the money line.

Texas Tech @ Iowa State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 835-836

Play On: Iowa State -5.5 (5*)

These teams are headed on opposite paths right now. Texas Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and those were its first 3 Big 12 games of the season. Their most recent loss took place at home when they were defeated by Oklahoma in overtime. The Red Raider season record is now 10-5 and that’s while facing a strength of schedule which ranks #280 nationally. The Red Raiders are 0-5 this season versus teams ranked in the Top 100. All 10 of its wins have come over teams ranked #145 or higher.

Iowa State enters today’ game on an 8-game win streak. Their last 2 wins came as an away underdog at Oklahoma and TCU. The Cyclones have gone 6-2 this season versus opponents who are currently ranked #73 or better. Iowa State is #12 nationally in defensive efficiency and they’re best in the country at forcing turnovers. Teams that have faced Iowa State this season have committed turnovers on 29.9% of its offensive possessions. Texas Tech has committed turnovers on 20.3% of its offensive possessions which ranks a terrible #277 nationally.

Give me Iowa State minus the points.

Creighton @ Connecticut 12:00 PM ET

Game# 607-608

Play On: Creighton +7.0 (5*)

Creighton has had a topsy-turvy start to the season. They won their first 6 then lost their next 6 which was followed by a current 3-0 SU&ATS stretch. Those 3 wins all came over conference opponents and by a substantial victory margin of 17.7 points per game. During their 6-game losing streak, 4 of those defeats came by a combined 10 points. The Blue Jays faced the 15th toughest schedule during its 1st 15 games and are much better than their 9-6 record indicates. They may be catching UConn at just the right time. After starting the season 14-0 and being ranked #1, the Huskies have dropped 2 in a row with both coming by 12 versus Xavier and Providence.

Give me Creighton plus the points.

Akron @ Ball State 8:30 PM ET

Game# 893-894

Play On: Ball State -135 (5*)

This will be only the 3rd true road game for Akron this season. They were losers in the previous 2 by decisive margins at Marshall and Bradley. During those contests, the Zips averaged only 56.0 points scored per game and shot an atrocious 31.3% from the field.

Ball State ranks #9 nationally in 3-point shooting while converting on an excellent 39.5% of their attempts. Conversely, Akron ranks #299 nationally at defending the 3-point line has opponents have made a combined 36.4% of its long-distance attempts against them. Ball State is a perfect 5-0 at home this season. The Cardinals are also currently on a 6-game win streak.

Give me Ball State minus the small number.

Illinois @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET

Game# 723-724

Play On: Illinois -3.0 (5*)

Both teams are very good defensively. However, Northwestern is horrible offensively and Illinois isn’t. As a matter of fact, Northwestern has shot 34.5% or worse in 5 of its last 8 games. That will ultimately be the deciding factor in this contest. Northwestern was exposed in a 16-point home loss to Ohio State in their previous game played which by all indications showed they’re not nearly as good as their then 10-2 record indicated. That makes Northwestern is 0-3 versus Power Conference teams this season with 2 of those defeats occurring at home, and they lost by an average of 15.3 points per game. They also were blown out by Pittsburgh at home 87-58.

Illinois has won their last 8 games against Northwestern. The Illini have also posted quality wins over nationally ranked Texas and UCLA.

Give me Illinois minus the small number.

St. Joseph’s @ Dayton 7:00 PM

Game# 657-658

Play On: Dayton -14.0 (5*)

Dayton is finally starting to round into form. The Flyers were a preseason Top 25 team but failed to live up to expectations throughout the first 4 month of the season. However, the Flyers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 with an average victory margin of 21.6 points per game. Dayton is also 8-0 at home with an average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. During their current win streak, Dayton has shot an outstanding 51.3% and made 38.6% of its 3-point attempts. The Flyers rank #18 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.7 points per 100 of their opponent’s offensive possessions. They’ll be facing a St. Joe’s team that is an uninspiring 6-7 this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in College Basketball to this point.

Give me Dayton minus the points.

Penn State @ Michigan 7:00 PM ET

Game# 683-684

Play On: Penn State +4.5 (5*)

Playing on the road in a hostile environment won’t affect Penn State as it would many other teams. After all, according to KenPom the Nittany Lions are the most experienced team in the country. All you must look at is the fact they turn the ball over on a mere 12.9% of its offensive possessions which ranks best in the country. This will be the Nittany Lions 3rd true road game of the season. They won by 15 at Illinois and lost in double overtime to Clemson on the previous 2 occasions. Penn State is 11-3 on the year and that includes a current 5-game win streak. Conversely, Michigan is just 8-5 and includes 5-5 in their last 10.

Give me Penn State plus the points.

Virginia @ Pittsburgh 9:00 PM ET

Game# 633-634

Play On: Virginia -5.5 (5*)

The sportsbooks are unimpressed with Pittsburgh despite their 3-0 ACC record. Virginia is Top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have already recorded 3 wins this season versus teams (Baylor, Illinois, Michigan) that are ranked in KenPom’s Top 50. Virginia is the 4th most experienced team in the country and their core group have enjoyed much past successes. The point being, they will be unfazed by playing on the road against a team that quite frankly has played over their heads thus far.

Give me Virginia minus the points.

Kansas @ Texas Tech 9:00 PM ET

Game# 641-642

Play On Texas Tech +1.5 (5*)

According to KenPom, Texas Tech has the #1 home court advantage in the country which they deem to be worth 4.7 points per contest. The Red Raiders are a perfect 8-0 at home this season and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. The Red Raiders are adept at getting to the free throw line averaging 23 free throw attempts per game and that goes up to 26 at home. Texas Tech is coming off a 67-61 loss at TCU in their previous outing. However, they followed up their previous 2 losses with wins by 14 over Georgetown and a 32-point rout of Louisville.

Give me Texas Tech over Kansas.

Seton Hall @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET

Game# 627-628

Play On: Creighton -8.5 (5*)

Despite their 8-6 record, this is a very good Creighton team that’s played the 13th most difficult schedule in the county to this point. The Blue Jays are #34 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #28 defensively. Seaton Hall comes in with a comparable 8-7 record and having played the 9th toughest schedule. Yet they find themselves as a heft underdog in this matchup. The Pirates are solid defensively but their offensive prowess leaves much to be desired.

Give me Creighton minus the points.

Kent State @ UTEP

Game# 871-872

Play On: Kent State -6.5 (5*)

Most times than not I shy away from backing sizable road favorites. However, this matchup is an exception. UTEP is a horrible offensive team. Additionally, the Miners have committed turnovers in 21.6% of their offensive possession this season which ranks #306 nationally. To compound that issue, they’ll be facing a Kent State tonight that forces turnovers in 24.1% of their opponent’s offensive possessions which is 23rd best nationally. Kent State has played the way more difficult schedule than UTEP has faced to this point. The Golden Flashes are 9-3 with their only 3 losses coming at #2 Houston by 5, at #11 Gonzaga by 7and by 2 at Charleston (12-1).

Give me Kent State minus the points.

Illinois vs. Missouri 9:00 PM ET

Game# 851-852

Play On: Over 153.5 (5*)

This game has all the earmarks of a high scoring entertaining affair. This is a Missouri team that prefers to play at a lightning-fast tempo. The Tigers are averaging 73.9 offensive possession per 40 minutes played which ranks 18th nationally. They’ll have a willing dance partner in Illinois who averages 71.5 offensive possession per 40 minutes which ranks #56 out of 363 Division 1 teams. Furthermore, Illinois made 57.2% of their 2 points shots (#19) and Missouri is #2 nationally in that exact category while making 61.4% of their shots inside the 3-point arc. Missouri is also #13 in offensive efficiency while scoring 113.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. Missouri has gone over in 4 consecutive contests this season when the total is 151.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 176.5 points per game. This total is as high as it is for good reason. Missouri has been extremely poor defensively throughout its previous 5 contests while allowing opponents to score 80.6 points per game, shoot 50.9%, and convert on 40.8% of its 3-point attempts.

Give me this game to go over the total.

George Washington vs. Washington State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 855-856

Play On: Washington State -9.5 (5*)

George Washington is 6-4 thus far but they’ve been beneficiaries of playing the 5th easiest schedule in the country to this point. Conversely, Washington State is an uninspiring 4-6 but has played the 45th toughest schedule and has been very competitive in most of those losses against high quality teams. The Cougars have made a stellar 38.4% of their 3-point shots this season which ranks #32 nationally. Washington State will also have a huge advantage on both the offensive and defensive glass in this matchup.

Give me Washington State minus the points.

Oklahoma vs. Florida 9:30 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Oklahoma +3.5 (5*)

This game will be played at a neutral site at Charlotte, North Carolina. Both teams are very good 3-point shooting teams. However, Oklahoma is #16 nationally in 3-point shooting defense while holding their opponents to a mere 28.3% conversion rate. On the other hand, Florida is #247 out of 363 Division 1 teams in that same category with opponents making 35.5 % of its 3-point tries.

Give me Oklahoma plus the points.

Illinois-Chicago @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Under 131.5 (5*)

Northwestern has allowed 63 points or fewer in 9 of 10 games this season. They rank #9 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 88.4 points per 100 offensive possessions by their opponents. Northwestern has played 5-1 to the under at home this season with a combined average of only 122.1 points scored per game and they allowed 54 points or less on 5 of those 6 occasions. The flip side to that equation is the Wildcats are a poor offensive team from an analytics standpoint. Conversely, UIC has seen 4 of its last 5 go under with a combined average of 132.2 points scored per game. UIC is also #286 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency averaging just 96.9 points scored per 100 offensive possessions.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Seton Hall @ Xavier vs. 8:30 PM ET

Game# 625-626

Play On: Xavier -8.0 (5*)

Xavier enters tonight’s game on a 5-game win streak and had a +11 rebound per game differential in those contests. Additionally, during their current win streak, Xavier had an excellent 24-14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, Seton Hall has a dismal 10 assist to 16 turnover ration throughout it’s previous 5 contests. The Musketeers are a well-balanced offensive team which ranks #2 nationally in 3-point shooting (42.3%) and #33 in 2-point shooting percentage (55.9%). According to KenPom, the Musketeers are #9 in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 115.1 points scored per 100 offensive possessions.

Give me Xavier minus the points.

Iona @ New Mexico

Game# 761-762

Play On: Iona +3.0 (5*)

This line jumped off the board at me since 7-2 Iona is only a 3.0-point road underdog versus a 10-0 New Mexico team. However, the Lobos have played an extremely soft schedule, and KenPom clearly indicates that as they have them at #267 out of 363 Division 1 teams with regards to strength of schedule. Conversely, Iona is #121 in that category and enters today on a 5-game win streak which includes an 84-62 win over #64 St. Louis. Despite New Mexico being undefeated, KenPom has New Mexico ranked #58 which is extremely high for a team from the Metro Athletic Association Conference. The Gaels are also very good defensively which is evidenced by the being #5 in percentage of blocked shots and #34 in 2-points field goal percentage at 44.1%. Iona doesn’t beat themselves as they commit turnovers on only 14.3% of its offensive possession which is 8th best in the country.

Give me Iona plus the points.

Texas A&M @ Memphis 7:00 PM ET

Game# 677-678

Play On: Memphis -6.0 (5*)

Texas A&M is 6-3 and all 3 losses have come against unranked teams. Those defeats came against Colorado by 28, Murray State by 9, and Boise State by 15.

Memphis is better than even their 8-3 record indicates. Their 3 losses have come by just a combined 10 points with the latest of which occurring on Tuesday 91-88 at #4 Alabama. The Tigers already have posted 5 wins over Power Conference teams.

Give me Memphis minus the points.

UCLA vs. Kentucky 5:30 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: UCLA -125 (ML) (5*)

The Wildcats 2 losses this season have come against Gonzaga by 16 and Michigan State by 9. Both losses took place on a neutral floor. Kentucky has now gone a dismal 3-8 SU in neutral site games since the start of the 2020-2021 season.

Since losing 2 straight games earlier this season versus #18 Illinois and #11 Baylor, UCLA has won 6 while doing so by an average of 23.5 points per contest. The last of those wins came on Wednesday at #20 Maryland in which they blew the Terrapins 87-60. They shot 55.6% in that win while committing only 4 turnovers. During this current win streak, UCLA has shot 55% or better 4 times and forced an average of 18.2 turnovers per game.

Give me UCLA on the money line.

Toledo @ Marshall 3:30 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Marshall -3.0 (5*)

Both teams are explosive offensively and neither shies away from playing a fast tempo game. However, Marshall is the better defensive team in this matchup and that will ultimately be the difference. Additionally, the Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU and 5-1 at home thus far with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. Furthermore, Marshal is 3-0 SU&ATS versus teams (Ohio, Akron, Miami-Ohio) from the MAC this season and won by 17.0 points per contest. Toledo is allowing 79.7 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 48.1% in games played on the road or neutral sites.

Give me Marshall minus the points.

Florida Gulf Coast @ St. Bonaventure 7:00 ET

Game# 1645-1646

Play On: St. Bonaventure -3.0 (5*)

The last true road game that FGCU played was on 12-4 and they were blown out by 32 points by Florida Atlantic. Additionally, since 2020, FGCU is 0-6 SU&ATS as an away/neutral site underdog of 6.0 or less and lost by an average of 12.3 points per game. Conversely, St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Bonnies average line in those 5 home games was -7.2.

Give me St. Bonaventure minus the points.

UCLA @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET

Game# 663-664

Play On: Maryland -120 (5*)

UCLA @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET

Game# 663-664

Play On: Maryland -120 (5*)

Maryland is coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee by 3 on a neutral floor and at Wisconsin by 2. That dropped their season record to a still stellar 8-2. Now the Terrapins return home to face an experienced and highly touted UCLA team which travels across 3 time zones for the non-conference matchup. The Terps are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while winning by an average of 17.4 points per game.

Give me Maryland on the money line.

Memphis @ Alabama 9:00 PM ET

Game# 617-618

Play On: Alabama -6.5 (5*)

Alabama is coming off a scintillating come from behind upset win at then #1 Houston in their previous game. It was right around this time a season ago when they knocked off a higher ranked Houston team at home and then followed that up with a 14-point upset loss at Memphis. They’re not about to fall in that same trap again. This isn’t a great shooting Alabama team but they’re relentless on the offensive glass while averaging 14 second chance possessions per game which ranks 4th in the country. According to KenPom, Memphis ranks 289th out of 363 Division 1 teams when it comes to defensive rebounding. They also are averaging 25 free throw attempts per contest. Additionally, the Crimson Tide rank 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Alabama has faced the 2th toughest schedule in the country thus far so they’re certainly battle tested.

Give me Alabama minus the points.

UAB @ West Virginia 6:00 PM ET

Game# 691-692

Play On: Over 153.0 (5*)

There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints.

Kansas @ Missouri 5:15 PM ET

Game# 683-684

Play On: Over 152.5 (5*)

There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints.

Xavier @ Cincinnati 3:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: Over 149.5 (5*)

There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints.

Grambling @ Vanderbilt 7:00 PM ET

Game# 693-694

Play On: Under 138.0 (5*)

This is a better Grambling team that most would recognize. They’ve already has upset wins over Colorado by 9 and UTSA by 20. During it’s last 4 games, Grambling has held their opponents to a combined average of only 51.5 points per contest and a mere 31.6% shooting. Grambling has also witnessed their last 6 all going under the total with a combined average of only 124.1 points scored per game. Vanderbilt went over the total in their previous game versus Pittsburgh. The Commodores have played 4-0 to the under this season following an over in their previous contest and there was only a combined 120.0 points scored per game.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Rutgers @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 873-874

Play On: Ohio State -6.5 (5*)

Rutgers is coming off a home upset win versus #14 Indiana. Now they go on the road to face #25 Ohio State who is 4-0 at home and outscored those opponents by an average of 30.8 points per game. During their last 3 contests which included games versus Texas Tech and Duke, Ohio State averaged 82.7 points scored per game while shooting an excellent 50.3% from the floor. The Buckeyes are also 5th best nationally from the charity stripe converting 79.1% of its free throw attempts this season. Ohio State doesn’t beat themselves and especially so of late as they’ve committed an average of only 7.8 turnovers per contest throughout its previous 5 games.

Give me Ohio State minus the points.

Marshall @ Duquesne 7:00 PM ET

Game# 871-872

Play On: Over 152.0 (5*)

Since Dan D’Antoni has taken over as head coach at Marshall, his teams have consistently played at a frenetic pace. As a matter of fact, this season’s Thundering Herd squad averages 72 field goal attempts and 83.7 points scored per game. Marshall averages just 14.7 seconds (5th nationally) per offensive possession and shoots 47% from the field. The Thundering Herd has scored 82 points or more in 7 of 8 games this season.

Duquesne is ranked #53 out of 363 Division team in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 108.7 points per 100 possessions. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Duquesne has averaged 78.6 points scored per game, shot 48%, and converted on an excellent 41.4% of their 3-point shot attempts.

This game has all the ear marks of a high scoring game played at a lightning-fast offensive pace. I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if these teams to score a combined 160 points or more. Give me this game to go over the total.

Dayton @ Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET

Game# 691-692

Play On: Virginia Tech -6.5 (5*)

This is a Dayton teams that had lofty expectations heading into this season and was even rated in the Top 25 preseason AP Poll. However, they're off to a disappointing 5-4 start which includes 0-4 SU&ATS in games not played at home. Virginia Tech is a sneaky good team and has posted a stellar 8-1 record. The Hokies are coming off a statement win by 8 over North Carolina who was ranked #1 earlier this season. Virginia Tech will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season's 62-57 loss at Dayton.

Give me Virginia Tech minus the points.

Illinois @ Texas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 607-608

Play On: Illinois +3.0 (5*)

We have #2 Texas as just a short favorite versus a 2-loss Illinois team. That line tells me most of what I need to know. Illinois’ 2 losses came at the hands of #3 Virginia (7-0) by 9 and at #13 Maryland (8-0) by 5. They also own a win over #19 UCLA in which they overcame a 15-point 2nd half deficit. The strength of schedule meter that I use indicates that Illinois is +4.5 over Texas. Anything +4.0 or greater is significant in a game between Power Conference teams and must be accounted for when handicapping College Basketball.

Give me Illinois plus the points.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 3:00 PM ET

Game# 761-762

Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*)

There’s no analysis today due to time constraints.

St. John’s @ Iowa State 3:00 PM ET

Game# 757-758

Play On: Iowa State -6.0 (5*)

There’s no analysis today due to time constraints.

South Alabama @ UAB 2:00 PM ET

Game# 745-746

Play On: Over 151.0 (5*)

There’s no analysis today due to time constraints.

Gonzaga @ Baylor 8:00 PM ET

Game# 879-880

Play On: Gonzaga -2.5 (5*)

Baylor is coming off a humiliating 26-point loss at unranked Marquette in their previous game in a game they opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Well, I faded them in that game and have no problem doing it again in this spot. What was more alarming for me in that blowout defeat is that the Bears allowed Marquette to shoot 58%. They also allowed Norfolk State and Virginia to shoot 50% or better in games earlier this season. Early returns tell me that this may be the poorest Baylor defensive team since Scott Drew became their head coach. That will surely be an issue tonight versus a Gonzaga team that shoots 51% from the field and has converted on 40% of its 3-point shot attempts thus far in the season. 

Gonzaga is off to a 5-2 start to the season against an extremely difficult schedule. Their only 2 losses came against #1 Texas and #5 Purdue. However, they also own quality wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, and Xavier. 

Give me Gonzaga minus the small number.

Creighton @ Texas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 751-752

Play On: Over 140.0 (5*)

Both teams like to play at a faster tempo which is evidenced by each of them averaging 61 field goal attempts per game. Creighton has averaged 83.9 points scored per game thus far while shooting a red-hot 51.2% from the floor and has converted on a stellar 38.2% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Blue Jays have already played the likes of #4 Arizona, #11 Arkansas, and a very stingy defensive team in Texas Tech. So, it’s not like they’re amassing these impressive offensive numbers playing cream puffs. They will be facing #2 Texas (5-0) today and the Longhorns are averaging 82.2 points scored per game have shot a terrific 50.3% from the field.

Give me this game to go over the total.

North Carolina @ Indiana 9:15 PM ET

Game# 719-720

Play On: Indiana -4.0 (5*)

Up until this lates AP Poll came out on Monday, North Carolina has been ranked #1. Subsequently, after a pair of losses in each of their previous 2 games to Alabama and Iowa State the Tar Heels plummeted all the way down to #18. On the other hand, #10 Indiana is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS thus far while outscoring those opponents by an enormous 29.5 points per game. The Hoosiers have been dynamic offensively while averaging 88.8 points scored per game and have shot a scalding hot 55.9% from the field while doing so.

Give me Indiana minus the points.

Ohio State @ Duke 7:15 PM ET

Game# 675-676

Play On: Duke -5.0 (5*)

Duke is off to what many consider a disappointing 6-2 start to the season. However, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home with an average victory margin of 31.3 points per game. We also must keep in mind that the Blue Devils 2 losses came versus #5 Purdue (6-0) and #9 Kansas (6-1). Duke will be facing a #25 Ohio State team (5-1) coming off impressive wins over Texas Tech and Cincinnati in their last 2 games. Nevertheless, this will be the Buckeyes first true road game of the season and it comes at one of the toughest environments to play at in the country.

Give me Duke minus the points.

Middle Tennessee State @ Saint Bonaventure 7:00 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Saint Bonaventure -3.0 (5*)

MTSU is 0-2 SU&ATS in true road games this season which came against Winthrop and Missouri State while losing by an average of 16.0 points per contest.

The Bonnies enter tonight’s game having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 and won by an average of 13.0 points per game. They’re also 3-0 SU&ATS at home thus far with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. St. Bonaventure has shot a blistering hot 40.2% from beyond the 3-point line throughout their previous 5 games. The Bonnies are a substantial +5.1 over MTSU on my strength of schedule meter.

Give me Saint Bonaventure minus the points.

Virginia @ Michigan 9:30 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Michigan +3.5 (3*)

#3 Virginia (5-0) is as good as advertised. They’ve already defeated #6 Baylor and #16 Illinois. If this were a 7-game playoff series, I would take Virginia in a heartbeat. However, it’s not, and in a 1-game early season situation I deem the home underdog Wolverines to possess ample betting value. By the way, since the start of last season, Michigan has gone 9-1 SU at home when playing their 2nd game over a 7-day period.

Give me Michigan plus the points.

Baylor @ Marquette 8:30 PM ET

Game# 627-628

Play On: Marquette +6.5 (3*)

This will be Baylor’s first true road game of the season. They certainly will be exposed to a hostile environment tonight. Marquette is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season with an average winning margin of 21.2 points per game. Marquette’s only 2 losses this season came at #5 Purdue (5-0) by 5 and versus Mississippi State (7-0) on a neutral floor.

Give me Marquette plus the points.

UCSB @ Duquesne 7:00 PM ET

Game# 605-606

Play On: Duquesne -3.5 (3*)

Duquesne enters this contest with a 5-1 record with their lone defeat coming at #16 Kentucky. Since that defeat Duquesne have won 4 straight and by an average victory margin of 12.3 points per game. UCSB is 4-1 but they’ve done so against a much weaker schedule than Duquesne has faced thus far. As a matter of fact, their lone loss came against Northern Arizona in a game they closed as a 9.0-point home favorite.

Give me Duquesne minus the points.

Sam Houston State @ Nevada 10:00 PM ET

Game# 817-818

Play On: Sam Houston State +4.0 (5*)

Sam Houston State has already posted away win over Oklahoma and Utah. So, they won’t have a deer in the headlights look tonight in Reno. Sam Houston has a perfect 6-0 record thus far and allowed 55 points or fewer in each game. Since last season began, Sam Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS immediately after allowing 65 points or less in each of their previous 7 contests, and they won by an average of 15.9 points per game. During their 4 games this season versus Division 1 teams, Sam Houston forced an enormous 19 turnovers per contest and had a +7.0 rebound per game differential.

Give me Sam Houston State plus the points.

Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET

Game# 911-912

Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)

Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.

Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET

Game# 693-694

Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)

Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.

Give me Charleston minus the small number.

UL-Lafayette @ SMU 8:30 PM ET

Game# 615-616

Play On: UL-Lafayette +1.5 (5*)

SMU has traditionally had a strong home court over the last couple of decades. However, here they are as a short 3.5-point favorite against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. The Mustangs are off to a disappointing 2-2 start, and they’ve shot 35.9% or worse in each of their previous 3 games. Their 2 losses this season were by 21 at home versus New Mexico and by 12 at Dayton.

UL-Lafayette is 4-0 and returns 4 starters from a season ago. They average 89.0 points scored per game while shooting 50.8% from the field and 41.4% from beyond the 3-point line.

Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points.

Liberty vs. Northwestern 8:30 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Liberty +3.5 (5*)

Northwestern is off to an encouraging 4-0 start to the season, and they won all those contests by 8-points or more. Yet, here they are as just a small favorite on a neutral floor versus a 2-2 Liberty team from the Atlantic Sun Conference. This one has trap play written all over it.

Give me Liberty plus the points.

Southern Indiana @ St. Bonaventure 7:00 PM ET

Game# 607-608

Play On: Southern Indiana +6.5 (5*)

St. Bonaventure is still a team in transition after losing all 5 starters from a season ago. The Bonnies are 2-2 with losses to Canisius and South Dakota State. Their 2 wins both came by exactly 13 points over Bowling Green and St. Francis (Pa.) who aren’t exactly elite Division 1 programs.

Don’t sleep on Southern Indiana. They enter this contest 2-2 with their losses coming at Notre Dame by 12 and at Missouri by 6. The silver linings in those losses, they covered both contests and showed they can be extremely competitive versus Power Conference teams. This is a team that has shot 50.4% from the field, 45.7% from 3-point territory, and in 3 games versus Division 1 opponents has a +1.0 rebound per game differential.

Give me Southern Indiana plus the points.

Mercer @ Florida State 6:30 PM ET

Game# 743-744

Play On: Mercer +7.0 (5*)

Mercer is 2-2 with both losses coming by 2 points on each occasion. Florida State is 0-4 including home losses to Stetson and Troy. As a matter of fact, they were defeated at home by 9 versus archrival Florida in their previous game. Additionally, they blew a 17-point halftime lead in that contest and even failed to cover as a 7.0-point underdog. The Seminoles are -10 rebounds per game while Mercer is at +7 in the same category.

Give me Mercer plus the points.

Kentucky @ Gonzaga 7:30 PM ET

Game# 689-690

Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (5*)

Villanova @ Michigan State

Game# 827-828

Play On: Michigan State -6.0 (5*)

Florida @ Florida State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 829-830

Play On: Florida -6.5 (5*)

Indiana @ Xavier

Game# 813-814

Play On: Over 141.5 (5*)

Cal Baptist @ Washington 11:00 PM ET

Game# 759-760

Play On: Cal Baptist +8.5 (5*)

Davidson @ Charleston 7:30 PM ET

Game# 767-768

Play On: Charleston -3.0 (5*)

North Dakota State @ Indiana State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 725-726

Play On: Indiana State -11.5 (5*)

UNC-Wilmington @ Oklahoma 8:00 PM ET

Game# 625-636

Play On: UNC-Wilmington +12.5 (5*)

Wilmington accounted themselves very well in a 69-56 loss at #1 North Carolina in their season opener. They easily covered that contest as a 23.0-point underdog and were a +5 on the boards against a North Carolina team which has been one of the best nationally in rebounding during recent seasons. Conversely, Oklahoma has been unimpressive in their first 2 games of the season. The Sooner lost at home versus Sam Houston State as a 16.5-point favorite. They also had an uninspiring 8-point home win over Arkansas Pine Bluff but didn’t come close to covering as a 27.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this game go right down to the wire.

Give me UNC-Wilmington plus the points.

Stetson @ South Florida 7:00

Game# 1643-1644

Play On: Stetson +8.0 (5*)

Stetson is 1-0 and that victory came last Monday 83-74 at Florida State in a game they closed as an 18.0-point underdog. South Florida is 0-2 and that includes a 64-61 loss to Southeast Missouri State in a game they closed as an 11.0-point home favorite. The Bulls will once again be a squad that struggles to produce offensively which has been an unfortunate common trend for them in recent seasons.

Give me Stetson plus the points.

BYU @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 661-662

Play On: San Diego State -10.5 (5*)

BYU narrowly escaped with a 60-56 win in their season opener versus Idaho State in a game they closed as a 23.5-point home favorite. The Cougars shot a poor 37.3% in that win. Not to mention the fact that BYU committed an alarming 23 turnovers as well. They’ll be facing a San Diego State team coming off a 80-57 home win versus UC-Fullerton. The Aztecs forced 18 turnovers in that victory while also shooting a blistering hot 53.8% from the field. San Diego State returns 4 starters from a season ago that will have plenty of revenge after losing to BYU in each of the last 2 season.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

FAU @ Ole Miss 7:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: FAU +5.5 (5*)

Ole Miss is coming off an uninspiring 73-58 home win over Alcorn State in their season opener and failed to cover as a 20.0-point favorite. That makes the Rebels a dismal 5-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season and with just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests. This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me with Ole Miss as just a 6.0-point home favorite versus a Conference USA team which has enjoyed little to no success in recent years.

Give me FAU plus the points.

UNC-Greensboro @ Miami Fla. 7:00 PM ET

Game# 661-662

Play On: UNC-Greensboro +10.5 (5*)

Miami is coming off an unimpressive 67-54 win over Lafayette and didn’t come close to covering as a 26.5-point home favorite. Even more concerning is they shot just 37.2% in that game versus what should have been an overmatched Patriot League opponent. Miami has now gone and awful 5-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2020. They will be facing an experienced NC-Greensboro team that returns all 5 starters from a season ago.

Give me UNC-Greensboro plus the points.

North Carolina vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Duke has played 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games and that includes 5-0 (161.2 PPG) if the number was 146.0 or greater. The Blue Devils scored 78 or more points in 9 of their last 10 while shooting 47.8% or better in all 10.

North Carolina has scored 82.5 points per game in this NCAA Tournament. They also have averaged a robust 64.5 field goal attempts per game which equates to a lightning-fast pace. The Tar Heels will be facing a Duke team which has scored their opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game this season. North Carolina has played 7-0 to the over this season versus teams that outscored their opponents by 12.0 or more points per contest and there was an enormously combined 170.0 points scored per game.

Since the start of the 2019 season, these bitter ACC rivals have met 6 times and each of those contests have gone over the total. Ironically enough, the average total in those contests was 151.4 which is nearly identical to today’s number, and there was a combined 171.7 points scored per game. Duke is currently #1 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and North Carolina is #18. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Villanova vs. Kansas 6:09 PM ET

Game# 701-702

Play On: Villanova +4.5 (5*)

Kansas has been stifling defensively throughout their 4 NCAA Tournament games while holding opponents to 59.7 points per contest and limiting them to 35.6% shooting or worse on each occasion. However, Villanova has proven throughout the course of this season is they can win even on a bad shooting night. The Wildcats are 6-2 SU this year when shooting less than 40% and includes 4-0 in their last 4. Villanova has won their last 9 and 14 of its previous 15 games. Their only setback during that stretch was a 2-point loss at Connecticut. Speaking of defense, Villanova has held its last 5 opponents to 53.6 points per game and a mere 36.4% shooting. Lastly, I will take Villanova head coach Jay Wright every time over his counterpart Bill Self when it comes to game plan strategy in a big game environment. Give me Villanova plus the points.

Xavier vs. Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET

Game# 651-652

Play On: Texas A&M -4.0 (5*)

Xavier has been impressive in the NIT Tournament. However, keep in mind that the Musketeers were a dismal 4-10 SU in their last 14 games prior to the NIT. Conversely, Texas A&M has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. Their only loss in that sequence came against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Final when they were playing its 4th game in 4 days. The Aggies have been sensational defensively on the defensive end of the floor since the NIT began. During their 4 NIT wins, Texas A&M has allowed a mere 57.5 points per game and held opponents to a combined 36.2% shooting. Lastly, it’s seldom a bad idea to take the team that’s been more consistent over a longer period time than the alternative. Give me Texas A&M minus the points.

Washington State @ Texas A&M 9:30 PM ET

Game# 649-650

Play On: Under 133.5 (5*)

Texas A&M has played 4-0 to the under in their last 4 games. Those contests had an average total of 139.6 and there was only a combined 126.5 points scored per game. The Aggies stellar defensive play during those contests was a major contributor to those low scoring affairs. Throughout those contests they allowed just 59.8 points per games and held opponents to a combined 37.3% shooting.

This will be only the 2nd game over the past 8 days for Washington State. The Cougars have played 7-0 to the under this season when playing its 2nd game in 8 days and there was a combined average of 125.6 points scored per contest. Washington State has shot a poor 38.3% from the field over their previous 5 contests. During that identical span, they have scored an extremely high 21.7% of their points from the free throw line. However, they will be facing a Texas A&M team tonight which has allowed its opponents to average 14 free throw attempts per game throughout its last 5 outings. Give me this game to go under the total.

St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier 7:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: St. Bonaventure -120 (10*)

Xavier is atoning for a underachieving regular season with this NIT run to Madison Square Garden. However, all 3 of their NIT wins were on their home floor and 2 of them came by only a combined 6 points. Xavier is just 5-8 SU this season in road and neutral site games. The Musketeers entered the NIT having gone 2-8 in their previous 10 games.

St. Bonaventure has literally traveled a more difficult path. The Bonnies 3 NIT victories all came on the road versus Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Furthermore, they were an underdog in each of those contests. The Bonnies are extremely disciplined. They have committed only 8.8 turnover per game throughout its last 5 contests and allowed their opponents just 9 free throw attempts per contest. This is a battle tested Bonnies team that earlier this season posted neutral site wins over Clemson, Boise State, and Marquette. The latter 2 teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Give me St. Bonaventure for a Top Play money line wager.

Miami vs. Kansas 2:20 PM ET

Game# 645-646

Play On: Kansas -5.5 (5*)

The main reason we will win and cover this game is the huge edge that Kansas will have over Miami on the glass. During their first 3 NCAA Tournament games Kansas was a huge +11.0 rebound per contest. Conversely, Miami is a -9.3 rebounds per game throughout its 3 NCAA Tournament contests. The Jayhawks have also been suffocating on defense while holding each of their 3 opponents in the Big Dance to 35.6% shooting or worse. Lastly, the Jayhawks will enter this contest riding an 8-game winning streak. Give me Kansas minus the points.

Arkansas vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 641-642

Play On: Duke -3.5 (10*)

Arkansas is coming off a huge emotional upset win over the #1 ranked team in the country Gonzaga. Now with just 1-day of rest, they have to face another blue-blood in Duke with a legendary head coach is retiring at their season’s end. Granted that the Razorbacks win over Gonzaga was an impressive one. Nevertheless, let’s not forget that they had narrow 4 and 5-point wins over #12 seed New Mexico State and #13 seed Vermont during the first 2 rounds.

Duke is a very well-balanced team. The Blue Devils are #2 nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 121.0 points scored per 100 possessions. Duke is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.4 points per their opponent’s 100 offensive possessions. Arkansas has been dominant defensively in their previous 2 games. However, Duke has averaged 82.2 points scored per game while shooting a scalding hot 54% from the field throughout its previous 9 contests. Comparatively, Arkansas has shot 39.4% from the field and made a dismal 25.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over their last 5 games. Arkansas also has scored 22.8% of their points from the free throw line this season which is 8th highest in the country. Conversely, Duke has allowed their opponents a mere 12 free throw attempts per game this season. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Houston vs. Villanova 6:09 PM ET

Game# 639-640

Play On: Houston -2.5 (5*)

For starters we have a #5 seed as a favorite over a #2 seed in an Elite 8 matchup. That speaks volumes to me in terms of what the odds-makers are thinking. Simply put, they are telling you that Houston is a slightly better team in this contest. Furthermore, Houston has been dominant in their 3 NCAA Tournament game with each win coming by 12 points or more. During their previous 2 games they knocked off #1 seed Arizona and #4 seed Illinois. Both teams entered those games versus Houston with impressive offensive season statistics. Yet, the Cougars held Arizona 60 points and 33.3% shooting and Illinois to 53 points and 34.0%. They also forced 17 turnovers versus Arizona and 14 against Illinois. The Cougars current NCAA Tournament run was preceded by going 3-0 SU&ATS during their own conference tournament. They won those conference tournament matchups by an average of 17.0 points per game and each came by double-digit margins. Simply put, Houston enters today as a red-hot team. Granted Villanova is also 3-0 SU&ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve faced a #15, #7, and #11 seed to advance. So, their level of competition they faced is nowhere near what Houston encountered. Give me Houston minus the points.

North Carolina vs. UCLA 9:39 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: UCLA -135 (5*)

With all things being equal, I can’t get beyond the fact that this experienced UCLA team has gone 7-1 SU &ATS in the last 2 NCAA Tournaments. Their lone SU defeat came in the 2021 Final Four to Gonzaga on a buzzer beating 35-foot shot. The Bruins have also gone 9-1 SU this season versus opponents that force 12 or less turnovers per game. Well, North Carolina has forced just 10 turnovers per game this season.

Any NCAA Tournament pick or favorite (UCLA) that’s playing in Round 3 that covered as a favorite in Round 2, failed to cover as a favorite in Round 1, and in Round 2 they scored 88 points or fewer and covered by 2.5-points or more, versus an opponent (North Carolina) that’s a #4 seed or higher, resulted in those teams going 30-3 SU 991%) since 1992. Give me UCLA for a money line wager.

Providence vs. Kansas 7:29 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Kansas -7.5 (10*)

I have been harsh on Kansas all season. However, this matchup versus Providence suits them well and I’m calling for a decisive Jayhawks win and cover. Throughout their last 6 games, Kansas has allowed just 63.5 points per contest and limited their opponents to a combined 37.5% shooting. Additionally, Kansas is 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 10.0 or less and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. This is a well-balanced Kansas team that #6 nationally in offensive efficiency and #27 defensively.

Granted Providence shot 51.9% in their 79-51 blowout win over #12 seed Richmond in their previous game. However, it marked the first time since 1/23 that the Friars had shot 50% or better from the field. Furthermore, despite that good shooting game, Providence has made only 40.3% of their field goal attempts over its last 5 games. It also must be noted that providence faced a #13 and #12 seed in their 2 NCAA Tournament wins. They’ll be stepping up in class to take on the #2 seed Jayhawks (30-6). Give me Kansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Houston vs. Arizona 9:59 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Houston +1.5 (5*)

This is exactly why I hate filling out brackets. Before the tournament began, Arizona was my pick to win it all. Now after watching both Houston and Arizona in their first 2 games of the tournament, I’m convinced this is a bad matchup for the Wildcats. Additionally, doesn’t it strike you as strange that a #1 seed like Arizona is just a 1.5-point favorite versus a #5 in the Sweet 16? The sportsbooks are begging you take take Arizona and I’ll gladly turn down the invite to do so.

Arizona narrowly escaped with an overtime win over #9 seed TCU in their previous game. There was a huge red flag being waved despite that Wildcats win. TCU had an enormous 18 offensive rebounds in that contest despite being considerably outsized. Conversely, Houston has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country annually since Kelvin Sampson took over as their head coach. As a matter of fact, Houston is #3 nationally this season in that category while turning 37.3% of their missed field goal attempts into offensive rebounds. That relentless offensive rebounding prowess wears down opponents while forcing them to defend multiple offensive possessions on numerous occasions throughout the course of a game.

Texas Tech vs. Duke 9:39 PM ET

Game# 629-630

Play On: Texas Tech -110 (10*)

We have the lower ranked and lower seeded team as a favorite in this contest. Public bettors have flocked to the window early to bet on Duke just as I expected. However, like I said on numerous occasions, my trust lies in the oddsmakers uncanny ability to set an accurate line 24/7 and 7 days a week over all else. The Red Raiders weren’t at their best in their 59-53 second round win over Notre Dame but still walked away with a win. Nevertheless, their calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. Notre Dame entered that 2nd round matchup having shot 50% or better in 5 consecutive games. Texas Tech forced the Fighting Irish into a horrible 32% shooting day. The Red Raiders have now held opponents to less than 40% shooting and 62 points or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games. Furthermore, Texas Tech is #1 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 84.4 points per opponent 100 offensive possessions. How good a rating is that? The next best team in terms of defensive deficiency that’s part of the ‘Sweet 16 field is Gonzaga at 89.7. Give me Texas Tech for a money line wager.

Washington State @ BYU 9:00 PM ET

Game# 619-620

Play On: BYU -135 (10*)

During their 2 NIT games with both played at home, BYU has scored 91.5 points per contest and shot a sizzling hot 53.7% from the field. AS a matter of fact, BYU has shot 50.8% or better in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, Washington State has shot 38.1% or worse in 10 of its previous 14 games. This is a battle tested BYU team that has played the 31st toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Cougars are 14-2 at home this season with their lone defeats coming versus #1 Gonzaga and San Francisco who lost to #20 Murray State in overtime during a 1st round NCAA Tournament game. Give me BYU on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Wake Forest @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET

Game# 617-618

Play On: Texas A&M -2.5 (5*)

A statistic that jumped off the page at me is the fact that Wake Forest has committed 16.7 turnovers per contest in their last 3 games. That’s a huge concern heading into this matchup versus a Texas A&M team that forces 17 turnover per game this season. Additionally, Wake Forest has allowed their opponents to attempt 24 free throw attempts per game over its last 5 contests. On the other hand, Texas A&M has gone an excellent 80.9% from the free throw line during its previous 5 games.

Texas A&M is a red-hot 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS during their last 10 games. The Aggies lone loss in that sequence came in the SEC Tournament Championship Game versus #5 Tennessee when playing their 4th game in 4 days. Texas A&M have been terrific defensively throughout their previous 5 games while holding opponents to just 62.6 points per game and 37.4% shooting. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number.

Abilene Christian vs. Ohio 8:30 PM ET

Game# 607-608

Play On: Under 144.5 (5*)

Ohio has seen each of their last 5 go under the total with a combined 134.6m points scored per game. Abilene Christian went over the total in their opening round 82-71 CBI Tournament victory over Troy. However, Abilene has played 4-0 to the under in their last 4 after going over in their previous contest and there was a combined 129.8 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

TCU vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET

Game# 829-830

Play On: Arizona -9.5 (10*)

TCU is coming off an extremely impressive 69-42 win over Seton Hall on Friday. However, the Horned Frogs have gone just 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a win in its previous game. Additionally, there’s a sizable disparity in the opponent they’ll face today compared to a Seton Hall team that was average at best over the 2nd half of their season. TCU has scored less than 70 points in each of its last 5 and 9 of their previous 11 games. That’s problematic when it comes to this matchup when considering Arizona has scored 81 points or more during its last 7 and 11 of their previous 12 games. The Wildcats have also shot 49% or better during 11 of its previous 13 games. Arizona is far the better team in this game and will walk away with a decisive win and cover. Give me Arizona minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Texas vs. Purdue 8:40 PM ET

Game# 819-820

Play On: Purdue -3.5 (5*)

The Longhorns 1st round win came over a Virginia Tech teams that needed 4 wins in 4 days in the ACC Tournament to just make it to the “Big Dance”. That win over the Hokies also halted an 0-3 SU&ATS Texas skid. As good as Texas’ overall defensive number are, they did allow opponents to shoot 48% or better in 5 of their last 10 games.

Purdue easily disposed of Yale during their 78-56 win in 1st round action. The Boilermakers have been dominant on the boards all season long which is further proven by their +10 rebound per game average. Purdue is also an excellent 3-point shooting team who has converted on 38.9% of those long-distance attempts. Give me Purdue minus the points.

Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech 7:10 PM ET

Game# 827-828

Play On: Texas Tech -7.5 (5*)

Notre Dame will struggle versus an extremely physical Texas Tech team that is outstanding defensively. This will also be the Fighting Irish’s 3rd game in the past 5 days after coming off wins over Rutgers in overtime and a slumping Alabama team on Friday.

As I previously mention, Texas Teach is outstanding on the defensive end of the floor. Throughout their previous 5 games the Red Raiders have allowed just 56.8 points per game and held their opponents to a mere 36.6% shooting. Texas Tech dismantled the Big Sky Conference champion Montana State in their opening round game 97-62 while shooting a blistering hot 66.2% in that contest. Give me Texas Tech minus the points.

Iowa State vs. Wisconsin 6:10 PM ET

Game# 821-822

Play On: Wisconsin -4.5 (5*)

The #11 seed Iowa State Cyclones upset LSU on Friday to advance. However, that was a LSU team that had their head coach and top assistant fired just a week prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament. They’ll be facing a more stable and better team on Sunday who won’t be vulnerable.

Colgate gave Wisconsin all they can handle on Friday before the Badgers pulled away late for a 7-point win. For all intent and purposes, this will be a Wisconsin home game that will be played in Milwaukee. That specific factor will play a large part not only in the outcome of this game but also aid in a decisive win and cover for the Badgers. Give me Wisconsin minus the points.

Houston vs. Illinois 7:45 PM ET

Game# 825-826

Play On: Houston -4.5 (5*)

This line tells me all I need to know. We have the lower seeded Houston Cougars as a 4.5-point favorite over #4 seed Illinois (23-9). Illinois was lucky to advance after a narrow 54-53 win over #13 seed UT-Chattanooga. The Illini led for just 30 seconds in that contest and in my eyes was thoroughly outplayed with all being considered. Illinois has been in an offensive funk over its last 4 contest while averaging only 62.8 points scored per game and shoot a poor 38.2%. That’s not good news for Illinois backers when considering their team will be up against one of the best defensive teams in the country that holds opponents to 59.1 points per game and a mere 37.6% shooting.

#5 seed Houston (30-5) is coming off an extremely impressive 82-68 win over a very good UAB team. The Cougars have gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 as a favorite of 3.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game. Houston has also gone an extremely profitable 7-1 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court.  Give me Houston minus the points.

St. Peter’s vs. Murray State 7:45 PM ET

Game# 789-790

Play On: Murray State -8.5 (5*)

Most people cheer for a Cinderella team in the NCAA Tournament, St. Peter’s certain qualifies in this regard. The #15 seed Peacocks are coming off a monumental upset over Kentucky in a game they closed as an 18.0-point underdog. Since the1990, NCAA Tournament teams with a seed of #13 or worse that are coming of a 1st round upset have been a huge fade in the following game. St. Peter’s will be facing a 31-2 Murray State team that survived and advance in an opening 92-87 overtime win over San Francisco.

Any 2nd Round NCAA Tournament #13 through #16 seed that’s an underdog of 6.0 or greater, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better has gone 0-12 ATS since 1990. Additionally, they were beaten in those contests by an average of 16.8 points per game. Give me Murray State minus the points.

St. Mary’s vs. UCLA 7:10 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: UCLA -2.5 (10*)

St. Mary’s looked terrific in their 82-53 rout of Indiana on Thursday. Conversely, UCLA closed the game on a 15-4 run in their narrow 57-53 win over Akron in a game they were a sizable 13.5-points favorite. As a result, we’ve seen a plethora of early bets and money being wagered on St. Mary’s. I’m predicting UCLA will bounce back with a huge performance on Saturday. This is an experienced UCLA team that advanced to the Final Four a season ago and that will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me UCLA minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan vs. Tennessee 5:15 PM ET

Game# 787-788

Play On: Tennessee -5.5 (5*)

Michigan overcame an early 15-point deficit to beat #6 seed Colorado State on Thursday 75-63. However, the Wolverines are a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS during their last 5 following a win in their previous contest and were outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game. Additionally, they allowed an alarmingly high 78.6 points per game throughout those 5 losses. That’s not good news for Wolverine backers when considering they’ll be facing a very good defensive team in Tennessee. The Volunteers have held their last 5 and 10 of their previous 11 opponents to 39.6% shooting or less. Tennessee has also allowed 64 points or fewer in 11 of its last 13 games. Tennessee has gone 13-1 SU in their previous 14 contests which includes a current 8-game win streak (+12.8 PPG). Give me Tennessee minus the points.

North Carolina vs. Baylor 12:10 PM ET

Game# 791-792

Play On: Over 148.5 (5*)

This is rarified air for Baylor with regards to the total. The Bears have only seen 4 of their 33 games this season having a total of 146.5 or greater. They played 3-1 to the over in those contests and averaged 84.8 points scored per game while doing so.

North Carolina is coming off Thursday’s 95-63 blowout win over Marquette on Thursday and that contest went over the total of 153.0. The Tar Heels have now played 8-0 to the over in their last 8 this season whenever there the number was 146.5 or more and there was a combined 165.3 points scored per game. The Tar Heels have chosen to play at a frenetic offensive pace of late while averaging a substantial 68 field goal per contest throughout its previous 5 games. Give me this game to go over the total.

Colgate vs. Wisconsin 9:50 PM ET

Game# 761-762

Play On: Wisconsin -7.5 (10*)

This is an experienced Colgate team that took Arkansas down to the wire in last year’s NCAA Tournament. However, this game will be played in Milwaukee which will for all intents and purposes be a Wisconsin home game. Unlike last year when a neutral site crowd energized the sizable underdog Colgate Raiders, that won’t be the case on Friday night. The Badgers were regular season co-champion in a conference that sent 9 teams to the “Big Dance”. Don’t expect them to be flat on Friday. It will be quite the contrary. Give me Wisconsin minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Iowa State vs. LSU 7:20 PM ET

Game# 759-760

Play On: LSU -4.0 (5*)

I was on the local ABC and Fox networks here in Western New York for my predictions for the NCAA Tournament. When asked about this game, I not only predicted LSU would win, but they would hold Iowa State in the high 40’s to low 50’s while doing so. I stand by that statement as bold as that may have sounded. Much ado will be made about LSU firing their head coach and top assistant right after the SEC Tournament. However, this isn’t the spot that the Tigers will be affected by those decisions. Iowa State has been held to 54 points or fewer on 7 separate occasions this season and includes 2 of their previous 3 games. Conversely, LSU has held 7 opponents this season to 59 points or fewer. The Tigers have held opponents to a mere 38.7% shooting this season. Iowa State started the season 12-0 but has gone just 8-12 since. By the way, LSU went 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Give me LSU minus the points.

Miami vs. USC 3:10 PM ET

Game# 755-756

Play On: Miami +2.0 (5*)

USC is just 1 of 3 PAC-12 teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The other 2 were UCLA and Arizona who the Trojans went a combined 1-4 SU against. The strength of USC is their defensive play. Although, over their last 6 contests USC has allowed 76.0 points per game.

Despite it being a down year for the ACC, I still consider Miami as being a vastly underrated team. The Hurricanes were knocked off in the ACC Tournament Semifinals when losing to #9 Duke 80-76. However, Miami has been resilient this season which is evidenced by them going 8-1 SU following a loss. During their last 6 games, Miami averaged 76.3 points scored per contest and shot a sizzling hot 52.2% from the field. Give me Miami plus the small number.

Yale vs. Purdue 2:00 PM ET

Game# 765-766

Play On: Purdue -16.0 (5*)

The Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs are in over their heads in this matchup. During their non-conference portion of their schedule, Yale went 0-4 versus teams in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field (Seaton Hall, Vermont, St. Mary’s, Auburn) and lost by an enormous 23.3 points per game. Additionally, the Bulldogs were a -10.3 rebounds per game during those lopsided defeats. That’s not good news for Yale backers considering Purdue is one of the nation’s leading rebounding team at +9 per contest.

Speaking og Purdue, they finished 3rd in the Big 10 regular season standing and only 1.0 game behind co-champions Wisconsin and Illinois. The Boilermakers also made it to the Big 10 Conference Tournament final where they fell to the red-hot Iowa Hawkeyes. Purdue went an unscathed 3-0 SU&ATS in non-conference games versus teams (North Carolina, Villanova, Wright State) in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Give me Purdue minus the points.

Vermont vs. Arkansas 9:20 PM ET

Game# 721-722

Play On: Vermont +5.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the screen at first glance. Here we have the #17 Arkansas Razorbacks from the powerful SEC 25-8 as just a 5.0-point favorite versus a team that won the America East Conference. However, this is a Vermont Catamounts team that has an outstanding 28-5 record and that includes 22-1 during its previous 23 games. The Catamounts also went 2-1 in non-conference play versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Their wins came versus the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs and the other against the Patriot League automatic qualifier the Colgate Raiders. Their loss came at #13 Providence by 10. The Catamounts defeated UMBC in the conference title game by a lopsided 82-43 score. Since the start of last season, Vermont has won 8 games by 30 points or more, and they followed the previous 7 by going 7-0 SU&ATS while winning by a substantial 24.6 points per contest. Give me Vermont plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Richmond vs. Iowa 3:10 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: Iowa -10.0 (5*)

Richmond entered the Atlantic Conference Tournament with just an 18-12 record and no whispers of being considered for an NCAA Tournament at-large-bid. So, they just went out and won 4-games in 4 days to capture an automatic bid. The only other A-10 team in the NCAA Tournament is Davidson. The Spiders didn’t face any team in the non-conference part of their schedule that is part of this year’s NCAA Tournament field.

Iowa enters the dance having gone 12-2 in their last 14 games which included being the Big 10 Conference Tournament champions. That’s a noteworthy item since there’s 9 Big 10 teams in this NCAA Tournament field. The Hawkeyes are an offensive juggernaut and especially recently. Iowa has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Give me Iowa minus the points.

South Dakota State vs. Providence 12:40 PM ET

Game# 741-742

Play On: South Dakota State +2.5 (5*)

This line confirms what I have believed for the past 2 months. The #13 Providence Friars aren’t as good as their #13 ranking indicates. Yes, they won the Big East regular season title which is no easy feat. However, in their conference tournament they were upset in the conference semifinals 85-57 by unranked Creighton in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. When doing a quick study on KenPom it further validates that Providence is a flawed team despite their stellar 25-5 record. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Providence is an abysmal 1-11 ATS when playing on a neutral court and were outscored by an average of 9.9 points per game. The Friars have gone 1-7 SU since 1997 in the NCAA Tournament.

Speaking of stellar records, South Dakota State is 30-4 which includes a current 21-game win streak. The jackrabbits can flat out shoot the basketball which is proven by them shooting 50% or better in 23 of their previous 28 games. If the prerequisite for an NCAA upset in an underdog’s ability to make 3-point shots. Then South Dakota State emphatically checks that box while making 44.9% of their 3-point shot attempts for the season. The Jackrabbits are also averaging 86.7 points scored per game this season. With those types of offensive numbers, your seldom out of any game no matter the deficit. Give me South Dakota State plus the small number.

Michigan vs. Colorado State 12:15 PM ET

Game# 727-728

Play On: Colorado State +1.5 (5*)

Michigan somehow received an NCAA Tournament bid and 1st Round bye with an uninspiring 17-14 record. Furthermore, there are even a favorite in this matchup versus the #24 Colorado State Rams (25-5). This is a simple case of ignoring the recognizable brand in Michigan State and going with the underdog that I firmly believe is the better team. Colorado State is 1 of 4 Mountain West Conference teams made the NCAA Tournament field. They also captured non-conference wins over #18 St. Mary’s (25-7) and Creighton who is the #9 seed in the Midwest region. They also won both regular season meetings versus conference rival and #23 ranked Boise State Broncos. The Rams are very good! Give me Colorado State plus the small number.

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers 9:10 PM ET

Game# 695-696

Play On: Notre Dame -113 (5*)

Rutgers has gone 1-7 SU during the past 2 season in non-conference neutral site or away games. That includes a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS this season in which they were outscored by a decisive margin of 13.5 points per game. After going through a recent stretch in which they won 4 consecutive games with all coming versus team that are in this 2022 NCAA Tournament, Rutgers has gone 2-4 SU including both wins coming by a combined 3 points.

Notre Dame started the season 4-5 but has gone 18-5 since. They're coming off an an ACC Tournament loss to a red-hot Virginia Tech team. Notre Dame is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. During their previous 5 contests, Notre Dame has averaged 79.4 points scored per game, shot an impressive 49.3% from the field, 42.4% from 3-point territory, and 79.3% from the free throw line. Give me Notre Dame on the money line.

Dayton @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET

Game# 699-700

Play On: Toledo +100 (5*)

Dayton comes off the disappointment of being passed over by the NCAA Tournament committee after being in serious contention over the past month. Teams in that situation are generally flat and lack motivation in their NIT opening round game.

Toledo is coming off a 70-62 loss in the MAC Tourney Semifinals. However, the Rockets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU this season following a SU loss and won by a substantial margin of 15.2 points per game. Toledo has also gone an outstanding 13-1 SU at home this season while outscoring opponent by an average of 18.7 points per game. It’s not often that a MAC team has an opportunity to host a non-conference game versus a quality team the likes of Dayton. I expect them to be fully engaged both mentality and physically as a result. Give me Toledo on the money line.