5* Ohio State +7 over Oregon

***Alert

As you know our BOWL GOY cashed HUGE with Ohio State winning SU as an UNDERDOG over Alabama...Here is our BEST BET for the Monday Championship Game.  I will return later this week with a complete analysis, and I thank you for your patience and a GREAT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON!

010815....***Alert

After our research was finally completed we must now tell you the line is keyed at Oregon -6 over Ohio State.  I am not thrilled with the change considering the public domain had part of the action, along with the sharp money.  Remember the Oregon football program has never defeated Ohio State, however this could be the VERY BEST Oregon team in history. 

ADVANTAGE...Ohio State does have a huge edge in practice time, and I'm talking about the normal 18 practices allowed for bowl games and spring preparation.  Since the Buckeye student body has not returned to school HC Meyer can call practice as much as needed...Oregon is following strict limitations and adherence to what the NCAA guidelines are for their situation.  Ohio State shows Vegas success vs. Pac-10 units with a 9-2-1 ATS edge.

SPECIAL NOTE:  CHECK BACK SUNDAY NIGH FOR A POSSIBLE TOTAL MOVE

5* Dallas+ over Green Bay

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

...return later with complete analysis, note the line is thundering down, all because of the injury to QB Rodgers, believe this is an over reaction, as many players in the NFL have sustained similar injuries for periods of time without making noise about said injury.  But, with the over zealous networks searching for intel, the construct formulates the injury as almost "life threatening?" Since we are on Dallas no matter, I am not happy about the exchange rate dropping...I will return tonight with our "game" analysis...Have a great weekend.

011015

Play on:  4* New England (12-4) over Baltimore (11-6) @ 4:35 Eastern

Re:  Baltimore has not played in temperatures less than 38 degrees

The line opened -7-1/2 New England, but has since been driven down to the whole number -7.  Which is to be expected with the Ravens record against the Patriots, and the fact sharps were looking to take numbers rather than laying in this exciting football game.  For those who have had their minds steeped in comet research it is now time for a reality check.  For the Patriots loyal base this is not good news as their favorites have been smashed in recent playoff meetings vs. Baltimore .  Against the spread we find the Ravens 5-0 ATS on the road in playoff games, while inside the series Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS at New England.  But, we look for those trends to end abruptly. We note, the Ravens arrived this post season with help from the Steelers as their offense was short staffed with RB Bell on the sidelines.  Plus Baltimore was fortunate having DT Ngata return from a four week suspension just in time to face Big Ben.  No matter the Ravens travel to New England full of confidence with a solid coach in Harbaugh and history of playoff successes against the enemy.  The Patriots last played the Ravens in December 2012 accounting for a 41-7 blowout for New England.  It was a great day as the Ravens, who some think are the most disliked team in the NFL fell very hard.  So it is clear why there was immediate line movement for Baltimore (Revenge), their successes against Billy B. and the heightened anticipation with the expelling of the Pittsburgh playoff interests and recent spread history.   Plus the Ravens run defense is holding the opposition to 88.3 yards per game.  So, It is critical for NE to establish their ground arsenal to take pressure off Brady and the banged up receiver corpse. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a >.500 road mark.  While Baltimore shows 2-9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game and 4-11-1 ATS against the American Football Conference.  Looking at each unit the most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is the Baltimore secondary….QB Brady threw 33 touches this year!  New England by 10.

4* Kansas State + over UCLA

Just a quick note on the betting cycles in Las Vegas. Customers from California and Arizona visit the Strip often on NFL weekends and weeks and when COLLEGE FOOTBALL hits prime time large.  This week was a case in point.  We note with PAC-10 teams are looking solid in the bowls, especially Oregon and Stanford....dollars have hit the UCLA side, and we thank the public domain for inspiring this play. Statistically, the Wildcats have many edges and bring coach Snyder to the forefront in a BIG GAME. In closing, Kansas State is 16-5 ATS off a SU loss, while UCLA is 1-4 ATS vs. the Big-12. TAKE ALL THE POINTS!

10* OHIO STATE+ over Alabama....COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR.

WHAT URBAN AND LITTLE NICKY HAVE DONE FOR THE INTEREST LEVEL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAS BEEN AMAZING.  NUMEROUS REPORTING OUTLETS HAVE SMACKED BOTH COACHES IN THEIR LEAD ADDITIONS WHICH FOCUS ON THE BOWL SEASON.  MORE THEY HAVE BEEN FEATURING THIS ENCOUNTER AS "ANOTHER BOWL WIN FOR ALABAMA," BUT TRUST ME IT WILL BE A VERY COMPETITIVE GAME BETWEEN TWO OLD FRIENDS.  REMEMBER THE BUCKEYES ARE SOLID AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE, AND WON'T BE INTIMATED BY THE 'BAMA MONIKER.  STILL IT REALITY THAT THE TIDE IS A MORE EFFECTIVE TEAM AND PROGRAM SINCE THEY ARE COMING OUT OF THE SEC.  AND HAVE TWICE AS MANY 5* RECRUITS PLAYING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL THAN THE BUCKEYES. BUT, AFTER SEEING THE 1-3 SU RECORD FOR THE SEC IN BOWL GAMES, I AM EVEN MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SELECTION...REMEMBER URBAN MEYER WILL NOT BE CAUGHT NAPPING VS. #1.  SOLID INDICATORS FROM TECHNICAL DATA ILLUSTRATE ALABAMA 5-13-1 ATS L19 GAMES OUT.  MORE IMPORTANT THE CRIMSON TIDE ARE AN ALMOST PERFECT 0-7-1 ATS L8 NON-CONFERENCE GAMES...CLOSE!

HAPPY NEW YEAR...BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR GOES ONLY WED. MORNING 01/01/15

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FIRST MEETING

10* Florida State +10 over Oregon

Rose Bowl

We are going against our summer forecast of Oregon and Oklahoma in the FINAL GAME of the season.  The Sooners out early because of injuries and so-so quarterbacking, while #3 Oregon we feel will be upset on Thursday by the Seminoles.  We agree that Oregon (12-1) is a super unit, especially with QB Mariota (Mr. Heisman) at quarterback, while being strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Ditto, Florida State who is UNDEFEATED at 13-0 and #2 in the country carrying the same assets with Mariota an edge over Winston at the helm.  FSU has won 6 straight bowl games. No matter, whoever wins goes to the first ever CFB Championship game on January 12th.   As the former national champions Florida State has had a mixture of issues on the team this season, and still managed to continue their winning streak currently at 29 games. The Sems have garnered one of the best post season SU records in the nation with a 27-14-2 life time record.  We can’t discount the relative talent and history of the Ducks program.  HC Helfrich does not have the pedigree of Jimbo Fisher, but his club closed the season winning eight straight games. Their only this season was to pesky Arizona way back in early October 31-24.  Still, the Ducks avenged that difficult loss with a PAC-12 Championship defeating Arizona 51-13.  Unlike FSU the Ducks have a losing post season record at 12-15.  As said earlier it appears this will be a super duel between QB Winston (3,359) who threw for 24 touches. QB Mariota (3,783) threw for 38 touches.  Plus the kid ran for 669 yards which shows his duality. The skill position talent for the opposing units appear dead even with the exception of FSU who has a first round draftee in WR Greene (1,306) who hauled in 93 catches. Also, the Oregon defense can ill afford to ignore the down field abilities of Nick O’Leary a legit first rounder too.  We understand the Sems defense has fallen off somewhat this season. It certainly helps to have a pair of receiving outlets like WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary to count on. Greene, FSU's all-time leading receiver, had another hugely productive year, hauling in 93 balls, for 1,306 yards and seven TDs. O'Leary, a First-Team All-American, took home the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end after catching 47 balls, for 614 yards and six scores.  Also, there is slight edge in RB with Karlos Williams of FSU who scored ten touches this season.  Surely, I sound biased, but that’s the reason for the selection.  The actual winning edge I believe will come from FSU PK Aguayo who is a first team AA this season.  We know Florida State’s has had some bad games allowing the opposition to breath down their necks, but that’s asset here.  We close with a wonderful tech as the Sems are 8-1-1 ATS bowl games.  We know the Ducks have covered 8 straight, however, it’s FSU 38 Oregon 37.

4* Louisville +7 or higher....over Georgia

Realize this is like pulling teeth going against a quality SEC unit with an outstanding coach.  However, my whole basis for this side is the Louisville defense and their team speed. Overall, including SEC types Louisville is ranked HIGH in many "D" categories this season.  So, we are projecting a lower scoring game than the posted number.  However, more importantly we note the post season successes for SEC teams when they face Big-12 units (Arkansas and A&M), but this is an ACC unit that can run sideline to sideline on both sides of the ball (i.e.,Clemson, etc.). Also, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE IS ALL LOUISVILLE.

No Comment, ck. back later.

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Play on:  4* Arizona State (230) over Duke @ 2:00 Eastern

SUN BOWL BEST

Both schools come in after sensational 9-3 seasons.  Against the spread ASU has a slight advantage at 6-3 with the Blue Devils 5-3 on the season.  On offense, the Sun Devils are led by QB Kelly who threw for 1,874 yards with 20 touches. For the high flying Blue Devils Quarterback Anthony Boone leads the way with 2,507 yards throwing with 17 touches.  In addition Boone ran for 5 touches complimenting his arm abilities.  PF & PA found the Blue Devils with a net edge at +11.9 vs. +9.3 for Arizona State.  Defensively, the Blue Devils (#67) are very talented this season ranking #18 in 3rd down defense and #20 in scoring defense.  ASU (#84) illustrates a unit that is rated #6 in defensive touchdowns.  Remember the Sun Devils have a solid defense and faced much stiffer competition than Duke.  The definitive differences between these two is SOS and the fact ASU has a more prolific running attack that will control the clock.  Further, ASU comes in ready to explode as they support a 5-1 ATS mark off a SU loss.

12/24/14

5* Western Kentucky (218) over Central Michigan @ 12:00 Eastern   

Bahama Bowl Best

Most of you know our Annual 20* College Football Game of the Year was Western Kentucky over Army.  We’ve stayed close to the ‘Toppers this year simply because QB Doughty and company run a gun slingers offense.  With so much speed on the outside and the running and throwing abilities of Doughty the ‘Toppers even upset Marshall 67-66, a game we mistakenly stayed away from in these pages.  No matter, WKU has defeated Bowling Green, came close to defeating the Illini, defeated Army, Navy, UTEP and Old Dominion.  Central Michigan comes in 7-5 as does Western Kentucky.  The Chips have defeated Purdue, NIU and Miami Ohio. In the SOS rating systems most consider the ‘Toppers playing a more difficult schedule.  Believe me the fact that WKU beat Marshall sells me on this game.  Plus, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Western Kentucky as in 2012 the Chips defeated their opposition (WKU) in the Little Caesars’ Bowl 24-21. Statistically, WKU is +5.0 vs Central’s +2.0 in the seasons overall net point differentials.  We note, the passing of WKU allows a huge advantage for the school down south.  Realize Central Michigan will be a much more physical defense, especially stopping the run. But, remember CMU is negative in the turnover factor which +WKU. The Chips were 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season.  Granted CMU comes in with some success in bowl games carrying 3-1-1 ATS record.  However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS vs. non-conference teams.  And, since this is being played on grass we have to mention the ‘Toppers are 14-3-1 ATS on that surface.  I believe you will see a wide open game with Western Kentucky winning by 7.

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4* Arizona+ (130) over Seattle @ 8:30 Eastern

There have been situations this season both in college and pro football that have been close to the unbelievable.  The QB injury problems at Ohio State and Utah State in College Football, and now Arizona in the NFL are clear examples. Sunday night the third string QB Ryan Lindley (1-3 as starter) of Arizona gets the call against the #1 scoring defense of Seattle (17.3).  By the way, the Seahawks have held the opposition to under 273 yards per game overall.  Arizona (11-3) is ranked 25th in overall offense (20.3), and have difficulties at times this season scoring points.  Over the last 5 weeks Arizona has been held to 12.8 points per game.  Where Arizona (10-4) is not so-so is on defense as they’ve held nine opponents to seventeen points or less.  No matter, Cardinals have been a resilient team behind HC Bruce Arians.  In their initial game, this season up in Seattle the Seahawks shutdown Arizona 19-13.  Last year Seattle won 34-22 in Arizona, while the Cardinals won at Seattle by a 17-10 count.  This should be a low scoring (36) game with RB Williams trying to control the tempo for the Cardinals offense.  Technically, speaking the bad news for Seattle is their 1-4 ATS mark during week #16.  Arizona has some real strong points as they show 6-0 ATS at home (7-0 SU) AND 7-1 ATS during the month of December.  In the series the home team has covered 5-of-7.  Finally, Arizona is 12-3 ATS vs. the NFC…TAKE ALL THE POINTS…Good Luck.

12/20/14

Play on:  10* (209) South Alabama -3 (not higher) over Bowling Green @ 9:15 Eastern

Site: Montgomery, Alabama

Camellia Bowl

This is the first ever Camellia Bowl and the first post season event for the Jags.  So without hesitation, I can estimate the EMOTIONAL ANGLE rests with the team from Alabama, especially since this is a “home” game for SA. Also, BG comes in off three straight losses. If you know how I think, it should register with you “that speed kills.”  On the playing field the Bowling Green defense can’t stay with the  South Alabama offense (6-6) on the edges.  This projects quick scoring drives for the Jags, while the Bowling Green (7-6) stogy offense will be unable to keep up for four quarters.  You see, the Falcons “D” is rated #106 in scoring defense.  And, #104 in defensive efficiency at (7.87)…By the way, that plays into a very decent ranking for SA at #56 with a +.01 in defensive efficiency. The big play maker for South Alabama is QB Brandon Bridge who is a senior and carries a 6-5 frame.  Bridge has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season with 14 touches.  Controlling the youngster will cause huge problems for that BG defense…JAGS ROLL!

12/20/14

Play on:  4* Utah (205) over Colorado State @ 3:30 Eastern

Las Vegas Bowl

Site:  Las Vegas, Nevada

This is a strange game right from the start as these two played in the same conference for 57 years.  Utah #23 leads the all-time series 55-22-2. The Rams show with the better record 10-2 SU, while Utah played the more difficult schedule 8-4 SU coming into the Saturday battle.  Utah has won 10-of-11 SU in bowl action.  The key emotional angle in the game goes against Colorado State as HC McElwain accepted a big time position in the SEC with Florida…. Offensively, the Rams took off in McElwain's system as quarterback Grayson, wide receiver Higgins and RB Hart (‘Bama transfer) paced an attack that drove the offense to almost 500 yards a game #12 in the nation.  That’s good news for OC Baldwin who will run the team until a new coach is available. In this situation CSU OC will be calling plays from sideline, instead of from the press box.  There is a major difference in responsibility as the HC on the field tasks are more complicated adding additional pressure to the overall staff.  The Utah defense (#72) has the complex job of stopping the diversified Rams offense.  But, the Utes have held a much higher level of opponent to 26.2 points per game, and 403 yards on average. So when you place records into the cue Utah possesses a strength advantage defensively.  Plus they have a super RB in Devonte Booker who garnered 1,350 yards rushing and 9 touches. And, with the Utah defense having the edge at the line of scrimmage (#1 Sacks), the CSU chances of winning SU are slim.  In fact, the Rams defense allowed a 100+ yard rusher in all of their games.  Believe you will see Wilson and Booker control the clock reducing the amount of positions for the Rams offense.  At this write the line is -3 in favor of Utah. This season the key wins for Utah were against Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Colorado...In those games Utah went 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Their four losses were against Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon.  In the last eight meetings Utah has covered 7 games.  Plus Utah is 36-17-2 ATS in non-conference games.  We know CSU is 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, but the Utes show with a solid 8-2 ATS mark vs. winning teams and 7-2 ATS in bowl...UTAH 36 Colorado State 24.

(102) 4* Jacksonville -3 (buy 1/2 point, if the line is -3-1/2 ) over Tennessee

Okay, we know the Jags have not covered the number as a chalk in 46 games.  However, they are different breed in 2014.  Obviously, much more competitive on the offensive side with the ability of QB Bortles to throw over the top. The Titans show after losing 8 straight game, and now may have to use the inconsistent Henne. No matter, Tennessee is a disgraceful 3-13-2 vs. the AFC and 7-19-1 ATS in the month of December.  Finally, the Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in the series. Please make sure you can buy down to -3, it will surely help...Good Luck!

5* Seattle over San Francisco

I won't spend much time talking about this key angle for Sunday. The basic facts have the Seahawks (9-4) on a 6-1 SU run and looking for control in the NFC.  San Francisco(7-6) and QB Kapernick have gone the other way fundamentally, while dropping three straight ATS.  In fact, Seattle has covered 6 straight in the series, and all though this is DD, we still love the Seahawks, especially since their 33-16 ATS at home in December. Good Luck.

10* Buffalo+ over Green Bay

The Packers fit the mold on Sunday as they show as a road chalk the #1 unit in betting circles.  I'm not degrading the handicap of the public domain.  But, from the technical standpoint the Packers are 2-5-1 ATS after playing on Monday night followed by a Sunday encounter.  On Monday I explained in these pages why Atlanta+ would cover against Green Bay. It's their forgiving defense which causes their on field issues. When we add in the home (Buffalo) field edge in series of 4-0 ATS, you can ascertain my reasoning. From the scheduling standpoint the Packers do not have a "stress" game until Detroit shows down the road. Finally Green Bay has never won in Buffalo.

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Play on:  4* Atlanta+ (179) Green Bay @ 8:30 Eastern

Monday Night Best Bet

Tonight 5-7 Atlanta travels to Green Bay to face the 9-3 Packers in a NFC battle.  Believe it or not the Falcons with their losing record are the leaders in the sorry NFC South.  No unit in the NFC South has a positive net point differential.  On the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU, while the Packers show 6-0 SU at home. The Falcons have a real rough close affecting their playoff hopes with GB, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Carolina left. Atlanta has taken 3-of-4 SU.  Green Bay does lead the series with Atlanta going 14-12 SU, but the Falcons have covered 4 straight in GB. Ironically, if the Packers lose tonight they’ll end up tied for the division lead with Detroit who is 9-4. High flying Green Bay comes in the darlings of their fan base.  QB Rodgers is still #1 in QBR with a 118.6 rating carrying 32 touches and 3,325 yards.  By the way, the three interceptions thrown by Rodgers have come in the three loses by the Packers.  Overall, the Pack is ranked #15 in Total Offense with 377.9 yards a game and 31.7 points per game.  Opposing Atlanta has a productive attack ranked #17 in Total Offense with 374 yards a game and 24.3 points per game.  Defensively, the Pack has key edges in Total Yards allowed with GB 336.8 yards per game vs. Atlanta 403.2 yards given up on average.  Total points per game allowed, GB 20.9 points vs. Atlanta’s 24.9 points. Still, there are dividing technical numbers when we realize the road team is 7-1 ATS in the series with the underdog 6-2 ATS.  Finally, in an odd angle the Packers are 1-7 ATS vs. a losing unit which illustrates they show flat sometimes vs. so-so units. Green Bay has Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay left before facing Detroit in the final game of the season.  We expect Green Bay not to be 100% focused, despite the MNF venue…TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Seattle +1 over Philadelphia

We had the Eagles over Dallas down in Dallas on Thanksgiving. But, Seahawks are different kind of football. Defense, running QB etc. insures a different result Sunday. We Seattle is not the same team as their Championship team.  But, the Eagles current starting QB Sanchez has faced lesser defensive editions in his starts this season. In addition, the facts are clear that Philly is running football with their OL in tact with the exception Heramens who is out. So, now we see the emergence again of RB Shady McCoy. Yes, the home field in Philly is HUGE EDGE, but we believe you will see QB Sanchez depreciate somewhat Sunday in key 3rd down situations.  In the end QB Wilson will engineer the one play that wins the game.  After all, he is the one QB on field Sunday that has won a SUPER BOWL..Good Luck!

Note: #1 L60 days #1 College Football, #1 in College and NBA hoops combined, #3 in money won +$60,000...SIGN-UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FOOTBALL SEASON AND EARN!

Play on: 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati

The Steelers have lost 2-of-3 (Jets and Saints) and are in a MUST WIN scenrio.  Pittsburgh is 7-5 in the division with the Bengals 8-3-1 leading the North. Granted last time QB Dalton helped the Bengals defeat the Bucs with a solid second-half.  No matter, Cincinnati is very vulnerable defensively ranked #18 in points allowed, while surrendering over 125 yards a game on the ground. This is were we expect Pittsburgh to control the tempo offensively.  With Pittsburgh 13-3-1 ATS at Cincinnati, expect a SU & ATS win by Big Ben and company. Good Luck!

3* Ohio State over Wisconsin

Make sure you have +4 or +4-1/2 in this encounter. Note, we have great respect for Wisconsin going in, but the talent on-hand with Ohio State is more advanced with the exception at the quarterback position.  Look, these are common opponents, and Urban Meyer (10-0 ATS Underdog) in this underdog role is unbeatable. Ohio State in the series is 5-1-1 ATS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Finally, on neutral sites Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS.

120614

Play on: 4* Georgia Tech+ (126) over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK

The way Tech can win this SU is utilizing their magic playbook being run by red shirt soph QB Justin Thomas who has been on fire of late.  Thomas has burned the opposing defenses for 2,321 yards running and passing with an amazing 21 touches going into action on Saturday.  Tech has the right mindset on offense to really hurt the Sems, as they run the football for 334 yards per game.  The highly rated Florida State defense has been hit hard this year, and you can tell by the overall scores.   Their defense is giving up 22+ points per game and 371+ yards per game.  Although the defense of Florida State has +23 takeaways, they fall short offensively with their offensive unit allowing 17 sacks.  But, we know FSUs offense has a habit out playing their defensive issues by scoring 45 points per game behind 430+ yards of offense. In the series Tech has covered 4 in a row, including their 2012 ACC TITLE GAME when FSU survived laying -14, 21-15. The last time Tech defeated Florida State was in 2009 when Tech won SU 49-44 as a three-point underdog.  The psychology of the game sets up well for Georgia Tech as Florida State is still undefeated with some of their players talking out loud about going undefeated.  With all the changes and the movement in the PLAYOFF four best, the heat is on Florida State, not Tech.  For the ATS cover we know Florida State is 3-10 ATS L13 times out and 3-9 ATS off a SU win.  The Sems are 0-3-2 ATS L5 in the series with the UNDERDOG 3-0-2 ATS.  Tech has covered 5 straight games, 4 straight in conference.  In an outright war, take Georgia Tech 35-34.

Play on:  10* (117) KANSAS STATE +7 over Baylor….7:45 Eastern

COLLEGE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

The line opened -9 or -9-1/2 favoring the home standing Bears.  Baylor is trying to garner a Playoff berth, while usurping the position of TCU in the Final Four.  No matter the health of QB Petty, this is a BIG GAME for Kansas State (9-2) head coach Bill Snyder and represents DOUBLE REVENGE.  Not only are we catching line value, but we have the emotional angle riding high.  We note, if QB Petty starts for Baylor, and it is well known prior to game time, expect the line to move up favoring Baylor.  Last year the Bears lost 35-25, while in 2012 the score was 52-24.  In 2011 Kansas State won 36-35 at Manhattan.   Okay we realize the Bears (10-1) are ranked #4 in total offense blowing out almost 49.8 points per game.  Kansas State is ranked #12 in total defense holding down the opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game.  The Wildcats are averaging 36.6 points per game with the Bears defense is a decent sort holding opponents to 23.9 points per game.  The UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series with KSU being 4-1 ATS L5.  Plus, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS off a SU win and 21-6 ATS vs. a >.500+ unit. TAKE THE POINTS!

5* TCU -33, -33-1/2 over Iowa StateCFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Always leery when laying this type enhanced number.  But, the HORNED FROGS are getting healthy for this home game knowing Playoff ratings are at hand...We fully expect TCU to cover in this situation very easily, considering they will be sky high. From a state of Iowa newspaper:

"A win over Iowa State may not be enough for fourth-ranked Texas Christian.

The Horned Frogs will have to do it with style.

A dominating, leave-no-doubt win for host Texas Christian during this Saturday's 11 a.m. game against the Cyclones could help land the Horned Frogs in this season's College Football Playoff.

I can't illustrate this too much, don't think the Horned Frogs will be flat."

Statistically, the Cyclones have HUGE ISSUES on defense, their rushing defense allows 5.7 yards game...WHY WOULD YOU EVER USE YOUR PASSING GAMES? The Iowa State's RD is ranked #119.  The passing "D" is just as bad #88 giving up 260.6 yards per game.  So we add this technical note, IOWA STATE is 0-7 ATS after giving up more than 280 yards passing.  Further, the Cyclones are ranked #119 (5.7 yards per game) in rushing defense.  Obviously, the MAJOR WEAKNESS for Iowa State on defense.  Recall TCU is 7-0 ATS L7 home and 11-2 ATS L13 overall.

(121) 10* Louisiana Tech +12-1/2 over Marshall

As you know the two teams out of the south that I love are Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.  Tech paid dividends for us last week, and we missed using the ‘Toppers in that 67-66 win.  Clearly, is seems that the lines makers are making mistakes with the numbers concerning second level BCS types. Here is no change as the line opened -14 and -14-1/2 favoring high flying Marshall.  Our ratings have Marshall at -8 or -8-1/2.  So we have a play AUTOMATICALLY because of the net point differential.  Now you add in the fine spread record by the Bulldogs in road shows 20-7 ATS, our basis for winning is enhanced.  Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS vs. a unit with a winning mark. Finally, we have the Bulldogs hot in conference with a 4-1 ATS record…TAKE THE POINTS!

Don't forget to purchase our 3-DAY packages and save money inside our all-sports agenda.

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5* Miami (475) over New York Jets @ 8:30 Eastern

When the 2-9 Jets face the 7-5 Dolphins on Monday night, we believe the score will end up being a one-sided affair with Miami winning out.  After all, the Jets season hopes are long gone, as they now play out the string of remaining games, whereas Miami must keep winning to have any chance of making the post season. New York’s most dominate issue on offense is the QB position with Smith, then Vick and now back to Smith illustrates my mindset, there is no consistency on offense.  Last time out the Jets were smashed by the Bills 38-3. Another huge problem is the sacks given up by the New York offensive line.  This is the reason the Jets fail to generate extended drives for a score.  The issue is counter intuitive to the defense which ends up being on the field to long.  In fact, this is a key reason why New York is ranked #30 in points allowed. The Miami loss to Denver (39-36) really puts immense pressure on the club considering their current record in the division (7-5). Much blame was put on QB Tannehill who has had a great season, but the youngster threw a critical late interception that pretty much closed the deal vs. the Broncos.  When you have young players at key positions they tend to falter at the most inopportune times.  For example, Miami is 0-3 this season in games decided by 4 points or less.  No doubt this battle is very important, and the Dolphins should get lucky with New York -12 in the turnover category.  In the series the road team is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run, while Miami has generated bias with their solid 5-1-1 ATS mark in New York.  Overall the Jets are just 2-8-1 ATS L11 times out.  If you’re playing this game the only side is Miami, because of the “need” factor.

Auburn has been down on defense, while sitting at #111th in penalties allowed. Auburn allows 3.9 yards per carry vs. opposing offenses and 142+ yards rushing per game.This is in contrast to 'Bama's "D" which is #6 in total defense holding opponents to 85.3 yards per game rushing. They've limited teams to under 15 points per game. Our point is, how can QB Marshall dent the Alabama defense with an offense that has committed costly mistakes and turnovers in key situations this season?  Auburn does run for 266 yards per game and 35 points per outing. But, Auburn has yet to meet a talented defense as powerful as Nick Saban brings to the football field every week.  The tradition of game came full circle last year when Auburn defeated Alabama and then went on to play in the championship game vs. Florida State.  This year the Nick Saban coached 'Bama changes places in history with Auburn winning here by a 36-20 score, while staying #1 in the polls.

5* Maryland over Rutgers @ 3:30 Eastern

These two do not like each other, and despite other reports we will see the Turtles ROLL BIG TIME Saturday.  No doubt Rutgers has been the SU/ATS leader in the series, but they show 1-8 ATS in the month of NOVEMBER and 1-4 ATS on grass surfaces.  In addition, when we look at these type RIVALRY GAMES we key in on defense.  The Rutgers edition is allowing 30 points per game...while the Terps have played a tougher SOS. In closing I would look for a wide open game with MD winning out.

FREE TOTAL:

GO OVER with Maryland and Rutgers.

10* UCLA over Stanford

You can take my analysis from our FREE PICK on the Bruins last week and apply it here.  UCLA (9-2) is simply too offensive for Stanford (6-5) in what should be a high scoring game. Yes, we know Stanford has won 6 straight in the series, but again they (Stanford) are over their heads here. The Bruins have distinct yardage edge, plus they show with the key turnover advantage. Stanford comes 4-0 ATS in November with the chalk 5-1 ATS in the series.  Finally, the Cards after a big win last week are 0-6 ATS after a SU win.

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Play on: 10* (269) St. Louis+ over San Diego @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

I guess the question is how healthy is QB Rivers? He is injured most know about it, but the QB is a gamer and will show up on Sunday afternoon.  San Diego is 6-4, while the Rams go on the road with a 4-6 record.  We always think about the Chargers in the realm of an offensive minded club, but their defense has been their strength in 2014 ranked #9 overall, and #6 in points allowed at 19.2 per game. Now let’s get to the big news QB Shaun Hill of St. Louis.  The quarterback guided the Rams to a SHOCKING 22-7 win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  His stat line 220 yards passing with one touchdown passing.  With Hill’s ability to stretch the field with his arm, the Rams running game had a surge as running back Tre Mason cashed in with 113 yards his best production of the season. What is lost here is the abilities of the Rams front seven on defense, one of the best in the NFL.  I think will see the Rams shutdown the Chargers running game forcing Rivers to throw into shifting coverage.  Overall, I think the Rams will win 20-17 and again SHOCK the sporting community.  If you’re thinking about playing the Chargers, think again as they field Sunday with a PERFECT 0-5 ATS run.  Also, San Diego is 1-6 ATS in November with the Rams 4-1 ATS in the same month.

5* Cincinnati over Houston @ 1:00 Eastern 11/23

The Bengals responded nicely last week against a flat Orleans (27-10) ship that's fading. They now travel to Houston, a difficult building against a fired up football team bringing the defensive MVP to the playing field. I'm sure because of the situation the public domain is taking a ticket with the Texas club, but we have a different mindset here. Okay, we know Houston is hungry and sit just one game in back of the Indianapolis in AFC South. Their assets obviously are their aggressive defense led by Watt (4 TDs), while having the NFL's #3 ranked rushing attack. Where their weakness lies in the secondary as they have given up almost 300 yards a game.  At this writing Cincinnati is averaging 22.4 points per game. Interesting the Houston defense is rated #30 in the NFL allowing over 389+yards per game.  On the Houston side, QB Mallet gets the call for Fitzpatrick, and he's coming off a solid effort producing a QBR of 95.3.  But, with the Bengals getting healthier on defense, I believe you will see a less effective outing Sunday. The Texans have a solid running game, but look for the Bengals to have a great day stuffing the run. In the Houston leads SU 5-3.  Technically, the Bengals have covered 6 straight in the series and that's the reason for their underdog status. So, from our perspective we have have solid line value at +2, if you can purchase it higher do so.  Remember the 5-5-1 Texans are 2-8 ATS off a SU win, and 2-11 ATS after an ATS win...Cincinnati 24 Houston 17

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Play on:  5* Hawaii (210) over UNLV @ 11:00 Eastern

Looking at injury report this morning and checking the wire QB Decker is listed as probable, and most likely will play Saturday night for UNLV (2-9).  He is banged up though, and that’s encouraging for us as UNLV is offensively challenged.  Remember Decker, though, has 10 touches, but 15 interceptions which kills his QBR. But, UNLVs major weakness is defense as they are ranked #123 overall in total defense allowing 513.0 yards per game and 278.5 yards per game on the ground.  They have been a disaster on the score sheet surrendering 37.6 points on average.  The Rainbow Warriors (3-8) went out on the road last week and won over San Jose State 13-0 (first shutout since 2005).  UNLV hits the island Saturday on an 0-4 run SU, they were purged by BYU 42-23.  In the overall series with Hawaii the Rebels are 9-14 SU.  UNLV stopped the Rainbow Warriors 39-37 last year, so this sets up a REVENGE game for Hawaii. The ‘Bows have a very competitive defense ranked #59 nationally, holding the opposition to 26.0 points per game.  The Rebels show on a 0-6 SU streak on the road, while going 16-43-4 ATS on the road.  UNLV is 1-6 ATS vs. Hawaii.  Granted this is a tough number to lay, but Hawaii shows in a positive mindset with RB Isoefa now a viable offensive alternative.  Also, there is special incentive for the Hawaii football team as their program is suffering from the financial standpoint, and would go away if interest in football is not revived…Good Luck!

10* Baylor -28 over Oklahoma State

I am inserting this with the line -28 -28-1/2, make sure you can buy a 1/2 point considering what the aforementioned line states. In this battle we have suffering Oklahoma State with injured QB, have the bottom rated offense in the conference, and they're trying to stay up with the Bears?? Baylor is #1 in total offense shooting 585 yards a game at the opposing defenses, and 51-points per game.  Oklahoma State is on a 4 game losing streak and they've looked bad overall. Granted they have covered 7-of-8 in the series, but the home team is 4-0 ATS. Overall at home Baylor is a sensational 23-4 ATS, Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS and 0-7 ATS vs. a >.500+ team.

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Play on:  4* California+ (184) over Stanford @ 4:00 Eastern

College Football Upset

Spending more time in the PAC-12 because of the fallout in many SEC programs this year.  As we write our findings have California and Stanford 5-5 SU on the season.  Stanford is 1-3 SU on the road, while California is 2-3 SU at home.  The Cardinal has lost to Southern California, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah this season.  California has been defeated by Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Southern California.  Stanford is on a perfect 0-5 ATS run on the road. Cal has covered 7-of-10 ATS and 6-of-7 ATS this as an underdog.  Remember the kids from Palo Alto have controlled this series with hated California, so the home standing BEARS have major REVENGE Saturday….GL

5* North Carolina+ over Duke @ 7:30 Eastern (Thursday)

We are inserting this early on Monday, but our analysis will follow by Tuesday night. So, please check back. Thank you for your patience.

BDS

4* Pittsburgh over Tennessee

MNF SMASH MOUTH WINNER

BDS

5* New England+3 or more over Indianapolis

I am posting this early and will return with our overall analysis, if time surrenders an opening. Already this morning there is line movement down. Play this ASAP, sorry for the issue, Brad.

465

5* Denver over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

If there is a no-brainer on the NFL card, I believe you are looking at it.  The Denver Broncos come in 7-2, while the struggling Rams show at 3-6.  To make matters worse for St. Louis they are electing to make a change at the quarterback position with Shawn Hill coming back to the lineup.  The only positive for the Rams is they should be able to take the run away from the Broncos who average under 100 yards a game in that category.  But, they still must find a way to limit the electrifying Peyton Manning, and we all know that’s an impossible task.  I looked at a possible LETDOWN, but just can’t see it based on the current facts and circumstances.  Recall the Rams have a history of playing poorly late in the season and show 2-10 ATS in week #11.  Plus, they are 16-39 ATS after gaining under 250 yards in their last game.  In closing, the Broncos are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS on the road vs. a home unit with under a .500 record. Good Luck.

457

10* Seattle+ over Kansas City @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

When the public moved the line from Seattle -1 to KC -1, -1-1/2, I knew my assertions would follow through on the playing field this Sunday.  I love Big Red as an overall technical coach.  And, to support this mindset, if you’ve been following us this season, you know we have been on Kansas City numerous times, including the road test in Buffalo last week.  KC leads the series 32-18, and the last time they played was in 2010 with the “Chefs” winning 42-24.  As we now know Seattle is a SUPER CHAMPION, Kansas City has won just one SUPER BOWL (IV) 23-7 over Minnesota and that’s a “few” years ago. My reasoning, the Seahawks are more structured to handle a championship type game, even on the road.  Seattle is 15-5 ATS vs. winning units and 8-2 ATS on the road vs. >.500 teams.  We know they are just 1-6 ATS in the series, but this “spot” entertains a whole different set of circumstances, including the Seattle ability on defense to mitigate the running game of KC. Good Luck!

5* LSU -1 over Arkansas

CFB LINE VALUE EDITION

BDS

We waited a little too long to play this as the public money shown earlier this week has evaporated.  At this time STRENGTH DOLLARS are showing from ALL the sharps on the Tigers. We mentioned in our USA interview this week that QB Harris will be taking snaps under center during certain down and distance situations. Because of his agility who will give the depleted Arkansas defense headaches. HC Miles realizes he didn't vie for the SEC title this year, because once again LSU does not have a 5* QB on the roaster. Mettenberger was a Georgia recruit.  It's been years since we've seen this type signal-caller in Baton Rouge. Technically, in this type situation, MILES is 21-1 SU!

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Play on: 5* UL-Monroe+ over UL-Lafayette @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS…

Saturday we are looking to stay away from as much of the marquee games as possible.  So, when we opened the stat sheet and looked at SOS with an underdog scenario in mind, we found a unit that is truly flying under the radar this week.  Down in Louisiana football is the sport of choice, carrying a solid fan base from all levels of academia.  In the five years during the tenure of HC Todd Berry the Warhawks of ULM of gone 1-4 SU in the series with ULL, 1-6 SU since 2008.  The majority of games have been very close, so you can imagine why we have chosen this situation for our clients.  ULL comes in 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS currently riding a 5 game winning streak.  They are coming off a 44-16 destruction on the road versus New Mexico State last Saturday.  ULM shows 3-6 SU & 3-5-1 ATS hitting the field Saturday after losing a heart breaker at talented Appalachian State 31-29.  That was in the second of BB road games, prior they dropped a hard fought battle with A&M 21-16.  Six of the nine games played by ULM this season have been very close.  ULM has lost 5 straight games.  In this series the UNDERDOG has covered 6 straight (15-2 ATS L17).  The opposing ‘Cajuns are 1-8 ATS vs. a unit with a

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Play on:  5* Tennessee (336) over Kentucky @ 4:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

This week we have 5-5 Kentucky vs. 4-5 Tennessee down in Knoxville Saturday afternoon.  The Vols show off a bye, while the Wildcats attempt to rebound from a 63-31 loss at home to Georgia.  The major question is how will KU respond with their bowl hopes gone considering they have Tennessee and Louisville next to finish the season. Kentucky is 6-17 ATS in SEC games and 0-6 ATS in November. Tennessee owns this series and now catches the Wildcats on a four game losing streak.  If UT wins they have Missouri and Vanderbilt to finish which would qualify for a minor bowl at 7-5 SU.  Tennessee has cashed 7-of-9 ATS in Knoxville, while the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the series…TENNESSEE!

10* Temple+12 over Penn State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Play on: 20* Western Kentucky -8 ½ (330) over Army @ 12:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR

We know Army (3-6) is coming off a solid 35-21 over Connecticut last week, while WK (4-5) handled UTEP 35-27.  The Cadets looked improved against the Huskies as the finally ended their three game skid.  Army has lost every road game this year.  The Army offense dictates tempo with their rushing #5 nationally, almost 300 yards per game.  One of key psychological edges for the Cadets is their triple-option attack, as not many in the south use such an attack.  Army, though, rarely throws the football, so if can establish a solid defensive game plan, you have a great shot at defeating the aggressive system.  Where Army really suffers is on defense as they allow almost 33 points per game and well over 400 yards in offense.  Opposing Western Kentucky is the opposite breed from the offensive standpoint focusing primarily on the passing game, averaging 40 points per game.  They are currently rated #2 in the NCAA from the passing yardage standpoint @ 371 yards a game.  QB Doughty is the real deal and has accrued 3,300+ yards throwing down the field.  He’s hit on 28 touches with a 67% passing accuracy. Where the Hilltoppers have problems is on defense as they show way down the rankings giving up almost 42 points per game.  Still, the real issues inside the game for West Point is being on the road where they have suffered at 6-20 ATS of late.  In what most likely be a high scoring shootout, Army simply can’t score quick enough to stay with the Hilltoppers.  WK is 13-6 ATS versus losing teams…Western Kentucky 45 Army 27

Play on:  4* Cincinnati+1-1/2 over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB LINE VALUE KEY BEST

BDS

The 6-2 Pirates of ECU face the 5-3 Bearcats of Cincinnati on Thursday night in game we feel there has been much line value found in the post for the home team Cincinnati.  The recharged Bearcats changed character midway through season showing off easy wins over South Florida and Tulane, while chasing Memphis for the top spot in the AAC.  Fortunately, for ECU they come in off a bye week losing to Temple on the road prior.  I had a chance to take in the whole Temple game, and believe me the Pirates looked flat (5 fumbles) and inconsistent. Actually, prior to the Temple loss the Pirates were ranked??   The Pirates have the #8 rated defense limiting foes to 339 total yards a game, 23 points per.  Offensively ranked #26 accruing 550 yards per game, while averaging 35.0 points per.   On the other hand, Cincinnati comes in very competitive #70 in total defense (476) allowing 29.8 ppg.  Offensively, the Bearcats are ranked #76 (466) averaging 34.8 points per game.  Clearly, if ECU is to win QB Carden will need to return to form after the Temple debacle.  Carden has a solid receiving group with RBs Hairston and Allen (605) carrying the ground arsenal.  The key for Cincinnati is the quarterback position as stellar Gunner Kiel did not look strong in the Tulane game, as Legaux came in hitting 3 touches to pick up a big win. The home team is 7-1 ATS in series with Cincinnati 4-0 ATS L4 here.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Philadelphia -7 (not higher) over Carolina

No comment

BDS

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Play on:  4* Baltimore over Tennessee

APPRECIATION NFL SPECIAL SUNDAY

BDS….

Key:  Baltimore is off back-to-back losses. 

You might think we are hoping against hope that the “sloppy” Ravens will come to play putting away the Titans.  And, that’s taking into consideration the up-tick by former LSU QB Mettenberger putting spark in the Titans vanilla offense. Techs, initially, bring negatives as the underdog in the series is 17-5-2 ATS, but Tennessee is 16-35-1 ATS vs. >.500 units. Plus, they are just 2-6 ATS in 2014. Baltimore 7-3-2 ATS in the month of November and 10-4 ATS in Baltimore.  We close with HC Harbaugh 8-1 ATS off a SU & ATS loss vs. a unit off a SU double-digit loss.  Baltimore garners an appreciation move from yours truly…GL

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Play on: 5* Kansas City over Buffalo @ 1:00 EST

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Cashed our NFL GAME OF THE WEEK last time around with New England over Denver.  This Sunday we go up to Buffalo and check out the 5-3 Chiefs and the 5-3 Bills.  We know the Chiefs very well simply because we have a strong book on HC Andy Reid since was the Eagles mentor here in Philadelphia.  Last week the Chiefs won and covered in a 24-10 win over the error prone Jets.  Buffalo did the same winning an covering before their bye over those same Jets 43-23.  The opening line was -2, it’s now down to -1 favoring KC.  Yes, the early money has been on Buffalo.  At the quarterback position we now have a wash as Alex Smith has been consistent of late leading the Chiefs to wins in 5-of-6 SU.  Replacement QB for Buffalo Kyle Orton has brought the improving Bills to victory in 3-of-4 SU.  Orton took over for the struggling E. J. Manuel and the Bills have prospered. But, this time around the Bills offense meet the #1 passing defense (199) in KC.  Over statistically both clubs are similar KC #5 on defense Buffalo #7.  Offensively, KC is #26, while Buffalo is #28.  The last time these two met was last year as KC won 23-13 garnering two fortunate defensive touchdowns.  Techs have the Bills 1-4 ATS off a SU win of more than 14 points and 9-24-1 ATS off a SU win.  The road team has covered 5-of-6 in the series.  We realize Buffalo 6-1 ATS vs. KC, the Chiefs did not have QB Smith in the equation.  Plus KC is a super 10-3 ATS on the road. With QB Smith starting his football team is 21-1-1 SU.

10* Tampa Bay +3 over Atlanta

NFL TOP PLAY UNDERDOG

BDS...

Love this situation as we have the Atlanta Falcons (?) laying points on the road. This scenario carries the EMOTIONAL ANGLE of the day as we catch the Bucs off a win trying to extract a measure of revenge vs. Atlanta for their 56-14 beating up in Atlanta earlier this season.  This is a MUST WIN for the Bucs who's suffering fans have not seen their favs win at home in 2014. Stay with the Bucs today.

4* Utah+ (194) over Oregon @10:00 Eastern

WISE GUYS BEST BET

This is a rebound effort for us as last week we dropped a rough outing with ND’s special teams and rushing defense going to sleep late in the game.  Here I have great respect for the Oregon program.  In fact, in our early season interviews we projected the Ducks as one of the units in the College Championship game.  Honestly, I don’t know if they’ll get that far because the Utes being at home with their defense have a shot SU of winning the whole game.  Oregon shows 8-1, while opposing Utah hits the field with a solid 6-2 mark. Both teams have covered 4 straight in conference, while Utah is 7-0 vs. winning units.  Finally, we’ll back the Utes who are 17-8 ATS off a SU loss. 

10* Arizona -17 over Colorado

COLLEGE CONFERENCE BLOWOUT GOY

Write-up Pending

BDS...

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5* TCU over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS…

One issue that is easily solved the Horned Frogs (7-1) actually accrue line value Saturday with the “public” affection for head coach Bill Snyder of Kansas State.  After eight games on the schedule this is only the third road outing for the Wildcats (7-1).  For TCU they show off a road win non-cover at Morgantown.  For this handicapper, it projects added value here as the confidence level for TCU should now be at an all-time high under head coach Gary Patterson. And, they are successful even though they lost senior quarterback Matt Joeckel for the season.  QB Trevone Byokin is a super athlete, but was inconsistent last week at WVU.  In that game the Horned Frogs scored the last ten points to secure a heart pumping victory.  We note, the Mounties sored one of their touches via a fumble recovery.  If TCU is to win and cover they will need a perfect game caring for the football.  Understand this is a hostile environment for KSU and represents a playoff game on its own.  TCU has derived a major edge playing this in Fort Worth.   Last week Kanas State easily handled the defense less and turnover prone Oklahoma State unit 48-14 for their 5 straight win.  Coach Snyder’s club lives off their defense #16 overall #9 stopping the run. The TCU win last week runs their streak to three after losing at Baylor. Kansas State’s only loss was to Auburn.  The Horned Frogs strength is offense with their 500+ yards a game and the #6 ranked passing attack nationally.  They are #2 in points scored! Defensively, KSU has an edge possessing the Big-12 best defense, but the Horned Frogs are #1 nationally in turnovers earned with +15. DOUBLE REVENGE…Coach Patterson is 0-2 vs. his former alma mater Kansas State.  TCU has covered 6 straight at home and 9-of-10 ATS overall. TCU 7-3 ATS B/4 BB road games. We realize the Wildcats are 20-5-1 ATS vs. winning units, but this is being played at TCU who has the EMOTIONAL EDGE.  Remember, this is a PROGRAM GAME for the Horned Frogs who came over from the MWC.  Interesting the only loss by TCU this season was to Baylor, but the Bears lost to like kind West Va. in Morgantown 41-27.  I believe based on the current facts and circumstances TCU has the edge…39-24.

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Play on:  10* Iowa +1 (123) over Minnesota @ 12:00 Eastern

Here we have two teams with 6-2 records fighting to achieve a seed in the BIG-10 Championship game. In preseason most experts had the Golden Gophers down the list in the West Division of the conference.  However, they come in off a BYE week with a 3-1 SU record in the BIG-10. Before losing a heart breaker to the Illini, Minnesota had won 4 straight.  MU is 5-0 SU this season at home.  They are actually tied with Iowa in the division.  The Hawkeyes show off a 48-7 crusher of the Wildcats of NW after a BYE.  Iowa has won the L2 in the Minnesota series in a convincing way 23-7 and 31-13.  This season Iowa has really improved on offense as last weeks’ crusher would indicate bullying the Wildcats, and now they average almost 30 points a game coming into action Saturday afternoon.   The Hawkeyes have improved over their 2013 edition in scoring defense holding the opposition to 20-points per game, ranked #14 limiting offenses to only 323 yards per game.  Minnesota shows listed as the #10 rated offense in the BIG-10 not in the country, clarifying.  Their key on offense is senior RB Cobb who has crossed the goal line 7 times carrying 1,000+ yards.  On defense, MU is listed as the #40 unit in scoring defense giving up only 22.2 points per game.  Yes, these two are very similar, but the value in the game has gone to IOWA from the line standpoint as the visitor opened as a -2 favorite, but the public domain has bought out the price to a “Pick.”  We know that Minny does not play well SU & ATS b/4 Ohio State (next).  We’re not projecting a look ahead because of the nature of this game.  Since Minnesota has not lost at home have the sharps and the public over played the Gophers situation?  In the series, Iowa has covered 13-of-19 in Vegas.  Iowa has not only covered 8-of-9 on the road, but 6 straight on the road vs. a winning home unit.  So, coach Ferentz and company will be prepared to take home the cash in a series Iowa leads of late with a 10-3 SU record.  Remember if Iowa becomes the UNDERDOG the line value generates a stronger position for us…Good Luck.

10* Cincinnati over Cleveland

NFL TOP PLAY LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS

Note, the Bengals are on an incredible home streak of late, and look to build on their early "MO" this season. The home unit in this series is 3-0-1 ATS.  We know the dog has been the play overall in the series the last six years, but Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning home team. And, there is a mid-week NFL system that's cashed 3-of-4 in the month November. Finally, the play of RB Hill who is emerging for the Bengals allows for a major play here. GL

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4* (108) Ball State+ (3-5) over Northern Illinois (6-2) @ 8:00 Eastern

CFB MAC KEY BEST BET

BDS

Here is a MAC encounter which appears to have two teams in different mind sets.  The Huskies are a solid 6-2 with suffering BSU 3-5.  The NIU offense stats out 100+ yards a game better than the Cardinals.  They show ranked #33 in overall offense, while BSU shows at #101.  NIU has the most dynamic all purpose threat on the field in sophomore QB Hare who has over 1,800 yards of offense with 16 touches. He was handed the lead role on offense in late September.  LY NIU picked up a 48-24 win over Ball State, but the Cardinals played well for three quarters only to collapse late. Going in BSU had won 7 straight games. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight in the series, so this is a MAJOR REVENGE.  Remember NIU is 0-6 ATS in the MAC with BSU 9-3 ATS off a week of rest.  BSU coach Pete Lembo is 28-18 coming into action and fields a unit that won 10 games last year, so don't discount the abilities of the Cardinals.

10* Baltimore over PittsburghNFL KEY SUNDAY NIGHT EDITIONBDS...It might appear we are running into a wall on Sunday night with the Ravens on the road, and the Steelers in REVENGE for that 26-6 beat down applied by the Ravens in the early going.  But, traveling Baltimore with a solid coach in Harbaugh are huge off a su loss at 4-1 ATS.  Plus the Steelers have been playing, somewhat, over their heads offensively.  And, they show 2-7 ATS off a SU win.  Both clubs 5-3 SU, we will see a critical game for each here on Sunday night.  Look for a buzzer job tonight with Baltimore grabbing the cash....BDS

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5* (468) New England over Denver @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

This afternoon up in Foxboro the 6-2 Patriots take on the 6-1 Broncos in what should be another classic AFC showdown.  Of course, it’s Manning vs. Brady (Manning is 5-4 SU L9) in the battle of fabled quarterbacks.  In the series New England has won 10-of-13 SU. But, New England is on a MASSIVE home winning streak of 13 games coming into action. Last week they crushed hapless Chicago 51-23. After a slow start the Pats behind Brady have won 4 straight games in the month of October, and they did so with some nagging injuries. Denver shows off a 35-21 win over hated San Diego.  Manning threw 3 touches with 286 passing yards overall.

Statistically, the Pats are #8 in total offense with 29.8 points per game with 363.1 yards on average.  The Broncos are rated #14 in total offense with 32 points per game carrying 398.4 yards per outing.  On defense, despite the rankings the numbers are close with #3 Denver limiting the opposition to 20.3 points per game with 315.3 yards on average.  New England is rated #17 in total defense holding opponents to 21.7 points per game and 340.5 yards per outing.   A key here will be the turnover ratio, New England is #1 in the take-away vs. give-away margin with +11, while NE +4.  Techs have the Broncos 9-20 ATS on the road vs. a winning home unit!  Further, NE has covered 6 straight at home vs. a >.500 road team.  In the series the home team has covered 4 straight, while NE has covered 4-of-5 ATS overall.

3* San Diego +2 1/2 or +3 over Miami

Try buying 1/2-point to bring this number to +3. Note, if San Diego can run the football for over 100 yards they'll accrue a SU and ATS win. Look the Chargers have won 10-of-13 ATS and have played well this season. This is a critical game in the AFC...SAN DIEGO+

NFL APPRECIATION MOVE

BDS

10* Washington+ over Minnesota

NFL LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS...

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Play on:  5* Notre Dame (311) over Navy @ 8:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Well if the Irish would have won last week over Florida State (27-31) this selection would have no validity.  Instead we have Notre Dame coming in off a heart breaking loss going on the road to face up-start Navy.  The Middies show off wins over VMI 51-14 and San Jose State 31-14, not elite competition. Prior they had lost three straight vs. Rutgers, Air Force and Western Kentucky, not a Class A unit to be found.  They do have classy QB Keenan Reynolds leading the way, but the ND defense has faced better this season.  On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense should have a big day passing behind QB Golson throwing to WR Fuller against a Navy secondary that is not of division one quality.  Overall their defense is ranked #85 allowing 27.6 points per game. With the game being played at FedEx Field the balance of student body and general fans should have strong east coast support for ND. Techs show ND 5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. With this being considered a home game for Navy we note the Middies are 0-6 ATS vs. a winning road unit.  Plus, the “road” team is 16-3 ATS in the series, while ND has taken 4-of-5 vs. Navy.