Play:  4* Missouri +8 (316) over Mississippi State @ 9:00 Eastern

What has happened to Missouri who finished 11-3 in 2014?  The Tigers returned 46 letters 6 starters on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.  They show 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS with one quality win 24-10 over crumpling South Carolina with their coach retiring in mid-season.  Against Florida, Georgia and Vandy their last three games, they have scored 3, 6 and 3 to be exact!  No matter, this game is a nationally televised event and Missouri would not like to be hacked again by a conference opponent.  For further assistance we can look to the gusty wet weather expected tonight.  Plus, this is a look ahead game for the Bulldogs who have Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss on-deck to complete the season.  Coach Mullen’s unit is just 2-2 in the West winning three straight games vs. Troy, Louisiana Tech and Kentucky.   Mississippi State has never been a good road unit going 23-32 SU the last 10+ seasons, including 2-1 this year with wins over Southern Miss and Auburn.  With QB Mauk out for the Tigers, the defense of coach Pinkel will need to play a great game to keep QB Prescott in check.  Plus the Tigers have solid defensive ends to help pressure the QB.  Technically, we have Mizzou in good shape at 8-0 ATS in November, 4-1 ATS off a bye. Plus, the Tigers have a long-term 58-28-1 ATS record after a loss.  MSU is 1-4 ATS L5 and 2-8 ATS in Thursday events.

4* Baylor -17...not higher over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern

CFB BLOWOUT ALERT

BDS

Even without QB Russell the Bears are far the superior unit.  My early season voting listed Baylor as the #1 team in the country. No matter, here they should handle the Wildcats in Manhattan. This is a KSU unit that finished last year that finished 9-4 losing 38-27 at Baylor to end the season as a 7+ underdog. They returned just 6 letters both on offense and defense, but their 3-4 SU/ATS. Coach Snyder will have the troops sky high, but we doubt they will come close, especially with the young stud QB of Baylor throwing down the field on most downs which plays into the #93 ranking in passing defense efficiency of Kansas State.  In addition, the Wildcats are banged up physically. Bayor is just 1-4 ATS here, but 4-1 ATS in conference. More importantly, the Wildcats are a depressed unit this season and have yet to beat a quality unit losing 23-9 last week to Texas, and the prior week 55-0 to OU.

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Play on: 5* Vanderbilt+ (167) over Houston @ 7:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Last week nationally our SEC games went 3-1 vs. the number, including our 5* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Louisiana State over the total.  First off, the Cougars have a conference look ahead game next week with Cincinnati, in fact, DOUBLE REVENGE.   Houston is undefeated 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS with key wins over Louisville and Tulsa.  They are now on a 21-9-1 ATS monster run on the Strip!  Vanderbilt is 3-4 SU, but a real nice 5-2 ATS coming off a SU/ATS win over Missouri 10-3 in Tennessee with a QB change. Realize this is a road game, but the Commies have covered at Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State this season.  Feel we are looking at a flat spot for the Cougars who show off a massive offensive showing (600+ yards and 59 points) vs. lesser UCF.  Remember Vandy is an SEC unit that plays defense for 4 quarters and will not quit, no matter the score…As a road underdog the Commies are a super 11-4 ATS, and 14-6 ATS L3 years on the road overall…TAKE THE POINTS QUICKLY!

10* GEORGIA +3 over Florida

SEC GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

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Play on: 4* West Virginia (111) +14 over TCU @ 7:30 Eastern

At face value the public domain will be backing the home based Horned Frogs 7-0 SU, but just 3-4 ATS over struggling West Virginia.  The Mounties visit 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS playing into an exceptional SOS, losers of three straight to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor all 20-1 SU.  Okay, TCU is of the elk, especially when QB Boykin is on fire, but I like the fact the Mounties have had rest (but, so has TCU).  However, the visitor needed the break more…considering all the facts and circumstances. The world knows WVA is 1-10 ATS with rest, but this is a “must win” situation for the Mounties to accrue a possible bowl bid. And, when you look back at the last three games in the series, 39-38, 27-30 and 31-30 were the final scores. Understand Horned Frogs have home, talent and tech edges, but they are 2-5 ATS after a +20 point win, and they will face a unit that has taken them to the wire last three times out...CLOSE!

Play on: (350) 4* Alabama over Tennessee @ 3:30 Eastern

SEC OUTLAW MOVE

Here is another beauty in the SEC as we have the thundering Crimson Tide coming in 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS after swamping A&M on the road 41-23 via defensive touchdowns. The Vols show 3-3 both SU & ATS after winning over Georgia 38-31 down in Knoxville.  But, note the Chubb injury was the center point in the cause and effect.  Important, Alabama is more dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which eventually will decide the outcome here.  If you look back at the Alabama and Arkansas game, the Hogs covered the +16.   The current number has ‘Bama laying -15-1/2 (should come down), but I don’t see that as a risk with Alabama starting to play at a higher level and Tennessee regressing.  Key:  Tennessee is ranked No. 19 rushing the football, but they will have to contend with the #3 rated rush defense in Alabama holding the opposition to 70.9 yards per game.  Overall, look for Alabama to stifle the Tennessee attack as this home game will be a huge party for HC Nick Saban before a week of rest and LSU.  Technically, Alabama closes with a perfect 5-0 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS win, then going up against an opponent with a revenge. Plus, the Tide are 8-2 ATS in the series.

5* Wake Forest** +9-1/2 or +10, over NC State

**Note, try to have +10, buying a 1/2-point if possible. 

The Demon Deacons (3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS) finally collapsed last week as they were crushed by UNC 50-14.  Prior Wake had defeated Army by 3 on the road, lost by 7 at Indiana, lost by 8 at Florida State, and then won at Boston College 3-0 before their downer vs. the Tar Heels.  No matter, these kids play their hearts out every week, just fell behind last week and could'nt respond.  Here they show at home as a DD underdog vs. North Carolina State (4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS) who have lost BB games to Louisville and Virginia Tech...Their 4 wins were against lesser types...Here they do have the talent advantage despite the road setting, but Wake will bounce back EMOTIONALLY, and play a great game, maybe not winning...CASHING YES! Remember, the home team is 14-2 ATS in the series, while the Pack is a PERFECT 0-9 ATS at Wake....WAKE 5-1 ATS at home this season!

Play on: (392) 4* Arkansas -5-1/2 over Auburn @ 12: 00 Eastern

SEC NO DOUBT ABOUT IT

Auburn comes into Hogville 4-2 SU, but just 1-5 ATS after winning and covering vs. Kentucky last week as projected in these pages.  Aspiring Arkansas is 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS after losing to ‘Bama two weeks ago 27-14 in Tuscaloosa.  Aubie’s key wins this season were vs. Louisville and Kentucky.  Arkansas important win thus far was as a road dog vs. Tennessee 24-20…Then the following week played (at) Alabama quite aggressively but, falling 27-14 taking home the cash.  Arkansas is off a bye and play in a great DOUBLE REVENGE situation.  Auburn has defeated Arkansas by 80-38 in those two games. No doubt the emergence of QB White for Auburn has the offensive unit with an aggressive mindset entering Saturday.  Still, when you review the stats from the Kentucky game, you will note the Auburn defense gave up almost 500 yards of total offense.   Remember the ‘Hogs are 7-0 ATS as a chalk playing into revenge situation when laying

312...10* TULSA +10-1/2 over Memphis...First off, the line is a gift at the aforementioned price. As you may know, totals in the 70's allows us an insight into an offensive battle between these two AAC schools. The reason for the over inflated point spread is the Tigers SU win last week over Ole Miss. Go ahead leap! Also, Memphis for some reason has never played well vs. the number on Friday going 1-5-1 ATS. In the series they are 1-5 ATS, while the offensive Tulsa unit is a sparkling 17-5 ATS vs. a >.500 road team. When you apply the LETDOWN THEORY on a short week, our selection becomes more glaring..Good Luck, and thank you all!

4* NY Giants +4 nothing less...over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

Yesterday our 10* late move was right on as we waited for the LB starters for Seattle before making a play.  With their MLB being out the run chase and read went south for the home standing Seahawks. You see, the Panthers were outstanding on 3rd down running the football, eventually allowing for their passing attack to take home the cash at the end.  Our other selections losers no less, Arizona OVER, the Cardinals were on the Steerlers nine yard line with under a minute and could have generated a nice back door for us...not so, as all day the Steelers stifled their running game forcing QB Palmer in difficult down and distance situations.  The Buffalo call, was a bad beat for sure, the 'Cats really do show like a prime edition this football season.

Tonight, we are uning the Giants plus the points, knowing the line dropped from +5-1/2.  Not excited by the change in value, but the latest is #13 will play for the Giants. No matter this is a division game and when Philly and NYG come together it is a war!  The Giants are 8-1 ATS vs. the NFC team with a losing record and 8-1 ATS as an NFC East unit off off a SU victory.  You might note that NYG is double revenge...NYG!

5* (254) Buffalo +3-1/2 over Cincinnati (A)

NFL: 8-1-1 ATS...NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Bengals were in a similar situation last week laying -3 to talented Seattle surviving in OT 27-24. We note, the Sea Chickens were afforded a fumble recovery for a TD close to the Bengals goal line, which the game in balance for the visitor. This is desperation game for HC Rex Ryan who plotted through five games with a 3-2 mark (2-3 ATS). The wins were against hapless Miami (R), Tennessee (R) and Indianapolis in week #1...27-14 on this same field as a +1-1/2 underdog. The Bills led 24-0 in the third quarter and then coasted to a huge win. The Bills held Indy to 64 yards rushing generated by the big lead and QB Luck, but the Colts supplied three key turnovers. So, my suggestion here is that Bills need to jump in early and secure the lead and emotional props which comes from playing in from of their rabid home fans.

Cincinnati comes in 5-0 SU mark 4-0-1 ATS. Their only game booked as an underdog was against the forgiving defense of Baltimore (+2) in 28-24 in Grab Town. The Bengals have defeated 2-3 Oakland, 2-3 San Diego, 1-4 Baltimore, 1-4 KC and 2-3 Seattle...not "one" winning team. Granted the Bengals are #1 in total offense...29.6 ppg. Recall, since 2013 the Bills defense leads the NFL in sacks and interceptions....and they improved their DVOA numbers ranked #10 this week with the Bengals #14...If the Buffalo defense disallows the big play, the Bills win this SU. The defensive deficiencies against the rush can be altered by TOP from the offense unit with RB McCoy and the more mobile E. J. Manuel at QB...No matter, even if Taylor runs the show the Bills will be highly jacked.

There a few old tech systems play into Buffalo. But, more important the Bengals who are 0-5 ATS as road chalk laying 3 or more, should fall to the emotional Bills and a celebratory crowd. Good Luck.

Play on: 10* (163) Nebraska +3 over Minnesota @ 3:30 Eastern

Without question the hard luck 'Huskers have earned their stars this season losing games in the last minute. Minnesota last week crushed Purdue as they Gophers went back to the running game, but they are reall banged up. Minnesota is 4-2 SU, Nebraska 2-4 SU. Our math line has Nebraska still rated as a -2-1/2 or -3 value over the Gophers, and that includes the site...NOW WE'RE CATCHING THREE! Also, Minnesota is a perfect 0-6 ATS after Purdue, and this comes full circle considering the game last week was a BLOWOUT...'HUSKERS WIN SU!

10* LOUISIANA TECH+ over Mississippi StateT

This is a play against  MSU more than anything, considering their off an easy 45-17 win over non-conference Troy, and now play another n/c battle vs. La. Tech. Believe if a team is going to be flat it should be Dak and company considering they must play 5 straight SEC games after this encounter.  I don't care what the techs an systems say...THIS IS A CLASSIC LETDOWN! GOOD LUCK.

(109) 5* UCLA +7 over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern

CFB KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

The line opened Sunday night Stanford -4-1/2 it now reached -7 at the famous Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas.  I’ll start by saying I am going against one of my favorite teams this season Stanford (#15) who simply look to take advantage of the oppositions miscues.  The Cardinal is 4-1 this season with a 3-0 record in conference, opposing UCLA (#18) is too 4-1, but carrying a 1-1 record in the PAC-12 losing 38-23 to Arizona State last time out!  Remember, the Bruins lost Jack have injuries on their defensive front. But, with a week of rest coach Mora should have his unit ready to go to the farm and win SU.

History has illustrated HC Jimmy Mora of UCLA has struggled versus Stanford, and his issue tonight stopping the run.  Going back and personally recalling the crushing blow the Cardinal laid on the Bruins in the 2012 Conference Championship game, and then last years “punch in the gut win” in the last game of the season costing Mora and the school.  I can see an extended effort by UCLA looking to play their best game of the season. Remember this is a HUGE REVENGE GAME for UCLA (0-7), not defeating Stanford since 2007.  Key will be stopping RB McCaffrey who is more explosive than his counterparts allowing TOP domination for Stanford.  The attack is balanced with short and medium range passing. The Cardinal has won 24 straight at night at home, but that does not ensure taking home the cash.

Key…UCLA needs to get on the score board first, and then apply aggressive defensive tactics to mitigate the Cardinal “ball control” offense.  Mora has told the press and the alumni “they (UCLA) will be prepared.”  Granted Stanford is 6-1 ATS in the series, but the Bruins a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after a bye week! What could slow Stanford emotionally is their huge win last time in excess of 20. In that role they show 3-8 ATS. 

(103) 4* Atlanta -3-1/2…buy ½ point, if possible… over New Orleans @ 8:25 Eastern

If it wasn’t for the Julio Jones hamstring this would be a 5* GAME OF THE WEEK type angle, but considering the overall picture the Falcons are the play.  Atlanta is one of the 6 NFL teams that is undefeated (5-0), but we note the wins have come against the “legion” of the NFL East.  In addition, they show 4-1 ATS.  Home standing New Orleans is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS after being waxed by the upstart Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend.  Some critical fundamental stats to remember, Atlanta is ranked #3 in total offense with a 32.4 point average.  Defensively, the Saints are rated #30 vs. the rush allowing on average 136 yards per.  Interesting RB Freeman is back in the lineup for the Falcons.  Atlanta is 2-0 SU on the road this year, 5-0 ATS L5 Thursday games.  Although the home team is 6-1 ATS in the series, the Falcons have dominated lately going 4-1 ATS.

(107) 4* Auburn -1-1/2 over Kentucky @ 7:30 Eastern

Okay, let’s get the main issue out of the way, the War Eagle is on an 2-13 ATS roll.  However, Auburn has dominated the series last losing to Kentucky in 2009 in game they showed real flat after losing a real downer to Arkansas.   Auburn had won 5 straight before the Arkansas game.  By the way, in 2010 Aubie won the national championship.  Auburn has won the last two SU at Kentucky, and we note the short price.  Further, the Wildcats when in similar situation earlier this season at home versus Florida, lost 14-9.  Granted the talent differential favors Fla.  Kentucky just missed being upset 34-27 vs. E. Kentucky who is not so talented….letdown(?) probably!  But, can’t turn it off and on in the SEC, and here is another must win situation for KU.  The ‘Cats did beat South Carolina 26-22 on the road this season, but SC was confused on defense. Remember, this season Auburn has played a more difficult schedule beating Louisville 31-24 and Jacksonville State 27-20 in overtime. Then the War Eagle visited Baton Rouge losing to LSU 45-21.  Then Auburn lost to Mississippi State 17-9 and beat San Jose State 32-21 at Jordan-Hare.  Realizing all the injuries, I have to believe the LSU game really hurt psyche of the football team.  This is great chance being on the road vs. QB Towles and company to recoil the season.  Kentucky has not played a strong schedule, now knowing Missouri was over rated since day #1 of the season and South Carolina a no show.  We close with Kentucky entering 8-19-1 ATS in the SEC...Aubie 26-20

10* Air Force over Wyoming

CFB PAY BACK GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS...ANALYSIS TO FOLLOW!

UTAH -7-1/2, suggest buy 1/2 point to lay -7 over Cal

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK..BDS

In this encounter we catch highly ranked Utah (I have them in my top-five) vs. ranked Cal who is #22nd naitonally...Utah is actually #7.  Still, the key here the home team has covered 4/5 in the series, while UTAH is carrying a critical 35-5 ATS mark off a bye week. To play this up scale offense from Berkley you need additional rest and preparation time, so be it!  Further, Utah has a much more balanced attack that's faced a plus SOS with one that can run and pass with QB Wilson who can not only pass, but can accrue yardage in key third down situations. Much like Wilson of the Seahawks! Don't laugh...Interesting based on SOS level of units value the Utah rush attack should have huge success overall controlling the tempo versus the Cal front seven, the Utah defense will need to blitz more to challenge the effective air attack of Cal who did a great job in upsetting Washington (who just beat USC last night).  For sure, you will see the quicker Utah defensive front take away the Bears running attack, so look for more difficult down and distance situations for their offense!

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Play on: 10* Miami Florida (371) +7-1/2 over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern

CFB UPSET ALERT

First off, this game has been moved to a night affair to suit the BOOB TUBE crowd!  More important we love the ‘Canes in this local rivalry, especially considering the injuries surrounding FSU.  Soph RB Dalvin Cook of FSU ran for over 1,000 yards last year, but is currently nursing a hamstring injury.  He is the key to winning the football game for the Sems considering QB Golson is not having a Notre Dame season.  If you need proof just check out their 3rd down conversion rating (#126).  So, if the Miami defense can bounce back from the Bearcat disaster they have a great shot at winning the football game.  Also, going back, the series historically has been defined by close football games.    Last year the Sems won 30-26 in 2011, MU won 23-19 and 2009, the Canes won out 38-34  in 2008 the Sems won 41-39 in 2007…HISTORY, HISTORY!  By the way, the UNDERDOG is on an 8-2 ATS run L10 years. Finally, the SEMS are 1-6 ATS off a SU win.

LATE MONEY MOVE

10* NORTHWESTERN +7-1/2 over Michigan

CFB FALSE FAVORITE GOY

BJC

If this game was not played in Ann Arbor, and I mean anywhere else you would have a dead "even" game. I simply believe the lines makers are making you pay for the "Harbaugh" experience. Look how closely rated the two defenses are overall? Northwestern has the more effective QB, and will not be phased by the road set.  Remember, the underdog is almost perfect in the series at 6-1 ATS and Michigan is 4-11 ATS after a win of 20+ points.  Good Luck!

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Play on: 4* (339) Virginia +10-1/2 over Pittsburgh 12:30 Eastern

I started kicking this game around for the Wise Guys’ contest Sunday night, but I had to let go of the mindset when I realized injuries are inside the game.  Further, Pittsburgh shows 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS, while the Cavs are 1-3 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS with a push no less vs. UCLA in game #1 of the season down in Chalottesville. Remember the Cavs brought back just 11 starters, highly talented Bruins showed with 18 RS…Pittsburgh has 16, but that came from a 6-7 season in 2014, while losing to Virginia 24-19.   SOS here favors the visiting Cavs having played Boise State, Notre Dame and UCLA, and of course William & Mary their only gift.   Granted coach Narduzzi has done a great job in Pittsburgh…Mike London down in Virginia gets little respect because of the scheduling, last year the Cavs dropped 5 games by

3* (307) Southern Miss +3-1/2 over Marshall
CFB FRIDAY APPRECIATION
BDS
Based on our strength system and power ratings this encounter is actually a PICK situation. Instead the game was opened by the lines makers and on going the value in the set has been reduced by the sports betting community. Therefore, we are recommending a lighter play with some discipline, and so you must ensure you have at least +3 in the game. Good Luck!

5* Cleveland +7-1/2 over San Diego

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow!

4* Washington+ over Philadelphia

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

Note...We may have another game later on this morning, right now this is our third selection with the 10* GOY and 5* GOW...Good Luck, and thank you all.

10* NYG+ 5-1/2 or +6 vs. Buffalo @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

This is critical and please note, if you can buy 1/2 point, please do so as soon as possible. No matter this play stands at +5-1/2 as a TOP PLAY. In this situation we have the developing Giants who are just 1-2 SU on the season vs. the 2-1 Bills. In our updated power ratings the Bills do have an edge over the Giants currently because of their #1 rushing offense.  But, I believe in SU talent the Giants are dead even with QB Eli Manning giving NY a clear differential.  Buffalo is technically void at 7-19-1 ATS off a SU win, while the Giants are 29-13-2 ATS in October. With the overlay feel we have a HUGE EDGE with NYG and to me it is quite obvious...NYG!

10* UL-MONROE over GS

Our power ratings have this virturally a dead even game, because of SOS.  The extreme has been the opponents ULM has faced but, now they come down physically to an opponent on their level, and they show in MAJOR REVENGE losing a heart breaker last season...WIRE JOB!

10* Arkansas+ over Tennessee

The Vols are coming off a rough last second loss to Florida once again in dramatic fashion. How can they possibly respond in a quality manner? I have respect for their coach, but "B" is behind the "8" ball in 'Hog country and actually needs this win more than the aforementioned after losing three straight games.  Remember Arkansas is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after BB SU losses vs. a unit with under a 67% winning margin...WIRE JOB!

10* LOUISVILLE +4 over NCS

SOS TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

Clearly our favorite SOS angle for Saturday as we have a highly comeptitive Cardinal unit lacking in the win column and getting no respect from lines makers, despite their difficult schedule. Lost some highly talented people from the '14 squad but, remain talent and aggressive. Here they catch the UNDERDOG role and we weather to support their case. Plus NCS is in the midst of a traveling issue with Tech up on the 9th...TAKE THE POINTS!

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Play on:  5* Pittsburgh+ (139) over Virginia Tech @ 12:00 Eastern

Cool with rain and thunderstorms are expected down in Blacksburg Saturday afternoon.  Although this scenario normally benefits the home team, I like what Pitt has done with the change at Quarterback and the leadership of first year coach Pat Narduzzi…The HC was a defensive guru at Michigan State and you can see by the early results that the Spartans have felt is loss.  In the series the Panthers have a sharp 7-1 ATS mark.  The Panthers are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season losing a road heart breaker at Iowa 27-24 back on September 19th…They do have a huge edge here off a week of rest to straighten out some of their offensive changes.  Statistically as far as total team, offensive and defensive efficiency they are ahead of Virginia Tech and improving, while Tech has regressed for their performance in a loss (28-35) to East Carolina last week on the road.  The Hokies, though, formidable show 0-10 ATS as a chalk when laying -3 or higher in a revenge situation (16-21…2014) off a SU loss.  This is one of those classic ACC showdown games with much on the line that I believe will insure a FG game either way…TAKE THE POINTS!

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5* Oklahoma (136) -6-1/2 over West Virginia @ 12:00 Eastern

Was hoping we would accrue more line value on Friday as some public money has showed up this week on the 3-0 Mounties.  That is the 3-0 West Virginia unit who has defeated Georgia Southern, Liberty and  a shaky Maryland unit that returned only 4 starters to their defense. With a more experienced unit the Maryland defense shelled out over 30 points per game defensively in 2014.   No doubt WVA has played the Sooners tough lately, and carrying a solid 12-6 ATS mark as a road puppy of late.  Oklahoma has a huge edge coming off a week of rest with 13 RS in the till, including 12-13 first or second team key players in the Big-12, more natural talent than pesky West Virginia. The Sooners averaged 36+ plus points per game last year, and have a real test this year vs. SEC Tennessee winning on the road in 2OT 31-24.  A character win, the Mounties have none!  OU is 9-4 ATS in the second of true BB home games, while West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their 4th game of the season and 5-11 ATS in conference.  

4* (107) Temple over UNC-Charlotte @ 7:00 Eastern

The Owls shows 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS…defeating Penn State, Cincinnati and the lesser UMass.  Learning FBS unit UNCC shows 2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS defeating Georgia State and Presbyterian (FCS), while being crushed by North Teas State and falling to Florida Atlantic.   The line has fluctuated between -23-1/2 and -24-1/2 this week.  The Owls last played on September 19th (UMass) winning 25-23 in a come from behind heart breaker for the Minutemen.  We note, Temple played their worst game of the year, flat to say the least through the majority of the game and QB Walker threw two INTs which hurt offensive opportunities.  UNCC has played one more game than Temple but, have a lower echelon power rating in college football, while the Owls have played a vastly more difficult schedule with Penn State and Cincinnati as key combatants. From the fundamental statistical standpoint, both offenses have 40% effectiveness.  Scoring defense has the Owls ranked #39 nationally…19.7 points per game.  UNCC  is allowing 30 points per game.  I’ve mentioned these critical numbers considering the SOS that heavily favors Temple…we have at 21.0 points in strength.  Despite QB Walker’s miscues vs. UMass he did throw for almost 400 yards.  And coach Rhule has been working on certain strength patterns for this game…but, it may not matter as the Owls running game should have a huge night, especially with rain predicted for the encounter.  Remember, Temple has a nice edge in weight at the line of scrimmage and their overall program experience should create a solid win.  The spread is prohibitive and the Owls have not been in this road position the last ten years, but the talent and game experience (19 RS) bring us to a solid conclusion.  Temple 34 UNCC 7…This is considering wet weather!

3* Cincinnati+ over Miami Fla. @ 7:30 Eastern

Here is another game close to the East coast which is projecting some rain, about 15% at our latest review.  You should take weather as a major consideration for games back east through Sunday.  The 'Canes do have an edge here with rest playing last on September 19th vs. Nebraska down in Sun Life Stadium winning 36-33 in OT. But, I do like the Bearcats who are 0-6 ATS in the most recent series, they've only played once over the last ten years (LY: 34-55). They show off BB road games, bringing a super ATS marker of 5-0 as an underdog after surrendering over 35 points in their last game...lost 53-46 at Memphis covering, however.  Last year on this same field Memphis beat the Bearcats 41-14, so there is improvement.  Cincy is 6-4-1 ATS off BB road games and 9-6 ATS at home sandwiched between road stints...CINCINNATI!

10* Tennessee over Indianapolis

Note, we are updating the NFL earlier this week because of injury update...QB Mariota appears to be 100%...update later on Saturday...Good Luck.

10* VANDERBILT+ over Ole Miss

SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Not afraid to go against the Rebels here, especially considering they have Florida up next on the schedule.  Remember Ole Miss upset Alabama last 43-37 in Tuscaloosa as an 8-1/2 point underdog. There were some incredible cirumstances, including turnovers which served the Rebs well.  However, they enter a true dead spot Saturday, and will be lacking the energy to advance up and down the field consistently...considering there were around 100 plays ran last time out.  Last year Vandy was CRUSHED by Ole Miss 41-3...but, the Commies have 18 RS now that will surely be ready to fire off against a unit "expecting" to win...TAKE THE POINTS as the Commies are 7-1 ATS in Mississippi!

5* Rutgers over Kansas

No doubt the Scarlet Knights have had off field issues again, this time prior to the Norfolk State opener.  But, the table is set Saturday for a HUGE win at home over suffering Kansas who is 2-9 ATS vs. N/C foes and 6-15-1 ATS in a road setting.  Remember this is a KU unit that is 9-39 SU, losers of 30 straight road games.  They have just 7 starters back, losing 55-23 to Memphis and 41-38 to FCS NDS....Overall, Rutgers passing game should rip the secondary of Kansas.  Plus the Jayhawks have a faulty (#116) special teams unit which should allow the Knights a break or two for key field position...MUST WIN FOR RUTGERS!

3* Oregon State+ over Stanford

Just can't make this a huge play on this encounter because of my personal appreciation of the Cardinal program, and especially this surprising football team.  In addition, this is the second of back-to-back road conference games with a short week...Always the home team has some advantage in preparation time.  But this situation has added props as Stanford has Arizona next week. Stanford 2-1 SU losing to well coached NW in week #1 on the road, but have bounced back vs. UCF and USC as we predicted last week as a SU UNDERDOG winner.  They have 13 starters returning, but just 4 defensively. Oregon State coming off a 5-7 season brings 10 RS. Did win 35-21 last week over San Jose State so will be arriving in a positive mind set....considering the Stanford series edge. What I like mostly here is the LETDOWN THEORY knowing SU has 'Zona next.  Please note, Stanford is a perfect 0-5 ATS as a chalk laying -3 or higher coming off a SU underdog win....With so much emotion expended last time, I'll back the Beavers to keep this close.  Good Luck!

5* Indianapolis -6-1/2 over NY Jets

MNF SELECTION

BDS

Want to realize some value accrued over night with the line dropping from -7, especially considering the Colts are at home and off a SU road loss to Buffalo.  Further, we note in game #1 the Jets offensively earned 46.25% rushing yards as part of their overall total yardage output vs. a confused Cleveland club.  New York used their running game (154) to control tempo against an adjusting defense.  The won easily 31-10 in New York creating 5 turnovers to bring home an impressive victory.  But, as we know there can be a great division between week #1 and week #2 results.  Versus Buffalo on the road the Colts last week were stymied on the ground (under 4.0 YPC), while, the Bills received great games from Taylor, Harvin and Williams.  Indy was hurt by QB Luck abandoning the running game.  But, the talented signal-caller should take advantage of DB Cromaarite who has been slowed by an injury.  The Colts generated just 25% running plays last week because they fell behind early 24-0.  We look for a critical change in play calling and a more aggressive Indianapolis to susutain a 10-point victory.  This is a critical bounce back game for the Colts, no less in prime time where they show 16-6 ATS.  As chalks on Monday they show 9-2 ATS...Indianapolis!

5* Seattle +3-1/2 not lower...over Green Bay

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow, Good Luck!

10* Philadelphia over Dallas

NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

No other games means as much to the fans in Philadelphia as does this battle with Dallas at the Linc. Historically, NFC East games have been wars to say the least, but this has added meaning considering that RB Murray a former Cowboy, now plays for the Eagles. In addition, the Birds are comng off a SU loss vs. Atlanta. While the Pokes show off a miraculous 27-26 win over NYG.  No doubt the Eagles can not afford to fall 0-2 in the loss column considering all that is riding on the season.  Granted the underdog is 2-7 ATS in the series, while Dallas is a super 6-1-1 ATS in their first road game of the season.  But, they are 0-4 ATS after facing the Giants...MOST IMPORTANT THE EAGLES HAVE A HUGE EMOTIONAL EDGE, especially that Dez Bryant is out. 

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4* Houston+ over Carolina
NFL KEY ROAD WARRIOR
BDS
Not afraid to challenge the number and the Panthers at home. Remember they are without Luke today, and play into a unit with a changing starter at QB in Mallet. He was the starter before the much talked about issue that moved him into #2 behind Hoyer. Hoyer was horrible last week early as the Chiefs buried the Texans, as we predicted. Mallet led Houston late for a few scores. Okay, Carolina did win last week on the road 20-9, but managed just 105 yards rushing

5* STANFORD+ over USC 

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK
Not only our revenge special for this week, but our key release in the Wise Guys contest. This is double revenge for the Cardinal after losing by three to USC in each of the last two seasons. Stanford has looked impressive early going 2-0 SU, while showing 9-1 ATS before Oregon State. QB Kessler of the Trojans will be an issue for the Stanford defense, but we look for the visitor to control the tempo of the game throughout. Remember chalk in this series 0-7-1 ATS.

10* PITTSBURGH+ OVER IOWA

BIG-10 UPSET ALERT TOP PLAY

BDS

10* KENTUCKY over Florida

SEC TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

YOU CAN SAVE BY PURCHASING OUR SEC TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE.

09/19/15

Play on:  4* South Carolina+ 17 (145) over Georgia @ 6:00 Eastern

Carolina was clearly waxed last week vs. Kentucky 26-22, yet at Columbia, it was a disgrace.  By the way, that’s back-to-back wins for the ‘Cats vs. SC.  Now QB Mitch is gone for SC with an injury, so QB Orth must start in what is clearly a MUST WIN SEC game for the Gamecocks.  South Carolina suffered lacking “O” talent, only 4 RS on that side of the ball.  They do have 8 experienced defensive personnel, including 7 seniors.  SC is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of late and 4-1 SU in the series.

Georgia is 2-0 SU after dispensing of Vandy 31-14, but Chubb and company managed only 105 yards rushing.  Last years’ Commodore defense gave away 33+ points a game, while the attacking offenses managed 184 yards per game on the ground.  My point, if the SC can run the football successfully, they will truly challenge the “expected” winner Georgia.  The ‘Dawgs have ‘Bama two weeks down the road, don’t think they are not already perfaying the landscape. Alabama last played Georgia in 2012 winning 32-28 in the SEC Title Game.  We know the ‘Dawgs are 29-6 SU at home, but come 11-11-1 ATS in Athens. As a chalk in conference…24-33 ATS, 2-6 ATS in their first SEC game at home.  Just for VALUE, feel SOUTH CAROLINA!

4* NOTRE DAME+ over Georgia Tech

CFB TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Analysis to follow Friday!

10* Auburn+ over LSU

SEC TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

CFB TOP PLAY UPSET ALERT

Play on: 10* Louisiana Tech +10 nothing lower, over Kansas St...We note, 13 RS for the Bulldogs off Southern and WKU. No doubt, Kst their toughest opposition thus far. Kst has just 12 starters back, and now have frosh QB starting.Granted Bill Snyder is a great coach, but he has week off coming, b/4 opening in conferece vs. OkSt. Tech is 4-1 ATS in the second of BB road games, and was successful last season at 5-0 ATS as an underdog, while going 5-0 ATS off a SU loss. The loss to Western Kentucky gives all sorts of value. LT is monster 17-4-1 ATS on the road vs. a winning record at home by the chalk. Remember Kst appears to be somewhat over valued this early in the season considering the drop-off in returning starters.

5* AIR FORCE+ over Michigan State

BIG-10 TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE

BDS

10* DENVER+3..nothing less over KC

I know Andy Reid better than any coach in the NFL, and I can tell you this is not his spot. Look at all the times in the past that Reid has suffered ATS losses laying a small price at home. Plus the KC victory was misleading vs. over valued Houston. On the other side, Denver beat a SUPER BOWL entry Baltimore holding them to 69 yards rushing. Granted the Broncos did not have a great day rushing the football, but remember Baltimore had the #4 rush defense last season (88.3). I love dogs in the early going that have the advantage at the line of scrimmage. TECHS: KC -6 or under, a prolific 1-11 ATS, while Denver shows 11-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC West units...TAKE THE POINTS.

091315

Play on:  4* Jacksonville (474) +3-1/2 over Carolina

Realize the QB difference, but like the home field, the price and all the emotion the Jaguars will throw into this all important game #1 encounter.  Feel the offense for Carolina is somewhat limited because of recent injuries, and therefore must focus on the talents of QB Cam Newtown.  From the talent department the Jags improved from 2013-to-2014, and now have a viable QB in Bortles who continues to show his developing talent.  I’m not saying Jacksonville will trade points with Carolina, but if their defense is much improved as our reports indicate, a SU win here would be no surprise…The Jags are 8-3 ATS the first game of the season, 7-3 in that role as an underdog.  Carolina is 0-6 ATS in game #1 as a favorite.

091215

Play on:  5* Temple+ (321) over Cincinnati @ 8:00 Eastern

This was our BEST BET submitted on Monday in the national Wise Guys’ Contest.  As we predicted last week Temple would surprise everyone vs. Penn State considering head coach Rhule brought back 19 starters.  Temple has lost to Cincinnati 14-6, 38-20 and 34-10 the last three seasons.  Revenge does not even count the anger flowing inside the Owls program.  If QB Walker of Temple stays under control, fully expect SU win on the road.  The Bearcats led last week with a cupcake and won easily.  Cincinnati returns only 13 starters, 5 on defense.  Look for the Temple running game to once again control tempo. The Bearcats are 1-3-1 ATS as a single lined chalk at home, Owls 6-1 ATS after Penn State.

5* Texas -14 not higher...over Rice

Talented differential favoring the 'Horns, a pissed Texas unit mind you, after being throttled last week by Notre Dame in front of a national audience.  Fully expect HC Charlie Strong to have the visitor SKY HIGH to go against a CUSA school returning just 9 starters, 3 on defense. UT had trouble scoring last week vs. the strong and quick defense of ND, not here. The visitor is 0-4 ATS in this series, with the chalk 5-1 ATS L6...Also, Rice 4-12 ATS vs. Big-12 schools!

4* East Carolina+ over Florida

As we did last week, looking for DD underdogs that have value vs. an over stated foe. Despite the injury on offense, we see the Pirates making a game of this considering they did the same last season against South Carolina in a comparable spot. Florida has their first SEC game next with improving Kentucky, so their emotions just many not be focused for four quarters...Good Luck!

5* Tennessee over Oklahoma...SEC Game of the Week

Classic encounter down in Knoxville with national title implications...OU crushed hapless Akron 41-3, UT smashed talented Bowling Green (15 RS) who has a solid trigger and receivers 59-20. Oklahoma shows 1-4 ATS off a SU loss, 3-7 ATS L10 on the board.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS on grass and 5-1 ATS at home.  The Vols only weakness right now is an injured secondary, so they will rely heavily on their vaunted pass rush to put pressure, while reducing the angles of QB Mayfield (388) who had a solid outing vs. lesser Akron.  We note, big time RB Perrine was slowed in that huge win. No matter, Tennessee has the running attack and the improving OL to create gaps for Hurd and Kamara who ran large last week.  With this being a REVENGE (34-10..2014) game have much more respect for home standing UT, looking for national focus...remember 18 starters return.

10* Georgia Southern+ over Western Michigan

CFB LETDOWN THEORY APPLIED

BDS

Last week Western gave a great go of it against mighty Michigan State, coming up with a difficult emotional loss.  The next big game for WM is in two weeks when they play hated Ohio State. So, it will be a while before the school faces a unit carrying an up psychology (next Murray State) Georgia Southern was shutout by West Virginia last week 44-0!  So, why the short post? Love this situation...Good Luck.  

10* UCONN -7-1/2 over Army

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Okay, we know Army exited the Huskies last season to the tune of 35-21 laying -3 on the road. UConn brings 14 starters, 8 on defense doing a solid job vs. talented Villanova last week. Army we thought would handle Fordham (not so) last week considering the Rams were competing with a reshuffled and changing defense?  The line opened -3-1/2 here, and climbed to -13, -14 considering the aformentioned note. Fordham won SU 37-35 with their "D" giving back almost 400 yards of total offense, 256 on the ground to the Cadets.  UConn beat 'Nova 20-15, containing the 'Cats offensively (303).  How talented is Villanova? Despite losing, they are ranked #2 in the FCS this week.  Since, the 'Huskies are in friendly confines this week, and face an Army unit 2-19 ATS on the road...UCONN!

091115

Play on: 4* (303) Miami Florida over Florida International @ 8:00 Eastern

Can’t help but, see this is as a blowout for superior ‘Canes.  Miami Florida is 6-0 ATS in SU lined wins!  Further, the last time these two played was in 2013 and Miami won easily 34-6, but were laying -31.  As you can see there’s been a drastic line reduction.  MU shows with just 11 returning starters, but have solid skilled people to take advantage of the FAU (3-9) defense that allowed 34+ points per game last season. Miami plays in the ACC (FAU…CUSA) which allows for a major differential in SOS. Plus HC Al Golden is under fire down in Florida and will need a huge season to hold his job.  FAU lost to Tulsa last week in OT and surrendered 618 yards defensively (smallish unit).  Realize the Owls are an outstanding unit as an underdog, but lines makers have simply over compensated…value Miami Fla!

4* Purdue+ over Marshall

The last time these two met was in 2012, Boilers won 51-41 laying 16...Herd grabbed the cash. Now the positioning has changed drastically with UM being a -7 chalk at the Westgate with the line opening at -8-1/2.  CUSA Herd return a solid bunch of 11 starters, but injuries of hurt in the spring and QB Cato (3,903) and 40 touchdowns passes have graduated.  The defense had their best year in quite sometime last time out with 8 starters holding the opposition to only 21 points-per-game...This is a much different cast now. Purdue brings 15 starters form a 3-9 team that I mind you plays in the Big-10. They have an edge QB today, but need the rushing game to step keeping UM "O" on the bench.  The defense allowed almost 32-points a game last year, but schedule much more difficult than the CUSA.  In addition, HC Hazell has had BB losing seasons of 1-11 and 3-9 as mentioned prior.  To say he is under fire, is an understatement, but they have a very rough schedule.  Granted the Herd has more speed here, but the adjustment at QB, injuries. Purdue was 4-1 ATS on the road last year and should be highly competitive this afternoon, at least covering the number...TAKE THE POINTS!

090515

10* (197) TEXAS +10 over Notre Dame @ 7:30 Eastern

Nationally televised encounter on FOX grabs the nation’s late night attention with Notre Dame on the agenda.  However, our power rating talent differential has the Irish by just 7 considering, UT has refueled with injured player’s returning and quality transfers.  Granted they come off a 6-7 season in Charlie Strong’s first year in Austin, but the cupboard is not bare.  The national realm of reality will give great respect to ND (+8-1/2) after beating LSU 31-28 in the Music City Bowl.  However, they did lose QB Golson who amassed 3,445 yards throwing the football, garnering 29 touchdowns.  Believe, this is an early season major concern for respected coach Kelly.  Texas is 3-1 ATS in game #1, ND 3-5-1 ATS.  Kelly is only 28-30-4 ATS in non-conference games and 17-19-4 ATS as a chalk L5 years.  Obviously, ND has been super at home 23-8 ATS to be exact, but they never have lost a more definitive player than Golson since Kelly has been in South Bend…and now must go from being an underdog vs. LSU to being a DD favorite in game #1…TAKE THE POINTS! 

Play on:  5* UL-Lafayette +17 over Kentucky @ 7:00 Eastern

LATE MONEY MOVE....no analysis

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Play on: 4* Temple +7 over Penn State @ 3:30 Eastern

Rarely go against the Nits, especially versus an opponent they have owned SU historically.  However, the Owls of Temple have a legit shot at winning.  In our published Twitter (BradD_QPicks) notes we mentioned that HC Rhule has 19 starters returning, 10 on defense which held the opposition to 17.5 points on average.  Improving their ability to score consistently (23.1) is critical this season.  Penn State has 15 starters back from a 7-6 season that ended with a 31-30 win over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Prior Penn State had lost back-to-back games to Illinois and Michigan State.  In the 2014 Penn St. 30-13 win, the Owls were in the game going into the third quarter (6-3), but turnovers destroyed any chance of winning.   QB P. J. Walker threw 4 interceptions, so I fully expect to see this encounter being a low scoring game with each unit looking for control on the ground. Playing in Philadelphia and coming away with a win can only help recruiting for coach Rhule and the school, and that probability increases with this being game #1 of the season. The Owls are 4-0 ATS their first line game of the season and 7-4 ATS as a home dog.  Penn State does show 0-3-1 ATS L4 on the road and a PERFECT 0-3 ATS as a road chalk in their initial road game of the season.  In the closing, the Nits have dropped back-to-back games ATS in a game #1 situations the next season after losing SU in their final regular season game the prior season…Penn State lost to Michigan State in 2014.

Play on: 10* Virginia +19-1/2 over UCLA

Just like our other 10* today we are searching for value in the talent differentials to see how much of the spread booked is warranted.  Here is another situation where you will pay for the national publicity affored the chalk.  The Bruins have 17 starters back, but are replacing QB Hundley (3,155...QBR:152.7) with inexperience. Yes, having 10 offensive starters is a solid basis for beginnig the season, especially considering the Bruins went 10-3 SU, and show off a game #1 win in 2014 over this same Virginia (-20) 28-20 on the road. UCLA laid DD last season vs. Virginia, Memphis, Utah and Colorado...0-4 ATS.  Now they show w/o the trigger, Hundley.  The Bruins were just 2-4 ATS at home, and 8-8 ATS in non-conference, 31-35 ATS L5 seasons overall (2-3 ATS game #1 home). Virginia has 10 starters with QB Johns taking over for QB Lambert who transfered to Georgia...Johns had a higher efficiency rating than the latter.  The projected starting group on both sides of the ball has, at this writing, 18 upper class experienced players. The critical improvement to enhance that 5-7 record from last season, is the ability of the running game (3.7) to deplete time, control tempo during given periords of the game. For sure HC London (23-38) is under HUGE HEAT and needs a winning season and a few surprising upsets to enhance his star.  He is 11-6 as an UNDERDOG...TAKE THE POINTS!

3* KENT STATE+ over Illinois

Since game was PPD. and Brad Diamond Sports had additional research time, we have moved this to a system 3* APPRECIATION rating, the game was a FREE SELECTION Friday...Good Luck!

4* ARMY -3-1/2 over Fordham

Don't get to involved with FCS types, but a good unit in Patriot League entry Fordham.  HC Moorhead in his 4th year brings a 29-10 unit, 14-4 unit league wide into battle.  Going 11-3 SU is remarkable, but this team was gutted from last year losing quality players on both offense and defense.  Because of the road site, expect the Rams to try and control tempo with big time RB Chase Edmonds.  The reason, high flying QB Nebrich and his wide outs have graduated.  We hear a QB transfer from Marshall will get the call tonight.  That's never good news in initial stint in hostile territory.  The defense lost four really solid plays and the PK is gone too.  

Army shows off a 4-8 season, but 2nd year coach Jeff Monken is under some heat considering the Cadets have not had a winning season since 2010.   He does have 10 starters returning, and new QB Adam Bradshaw appears to be a very talented and athletic signal-caller that will run the option attack. If Army is to win and cover here they will need to improve on their points allowed (32.9) stat from 2014.  What will the Cadets defense is their familarity with the new 3-4 defense that was installed last season.  Where Army has a solid edge is on special teams with their coverability and speed. Last year Army (+3-1/2) defeated Fordham 42-31 at home prior to the Navy game...so, this time around there will be no other focus.  HUGE GAME FOR ARMY!

4* Hawaii+ over Colorado

No doubt differential talent compilation favoring Buffs, but Vegas shows respect withholding DD knowing public may ride that way , no matter.  Although Buffs have almost everyone back, we note that was from a 2-10 unit, losing by a -70 on the road in 2014. Make no mistake we respect Buffs who have a rough go every week, and show loaded with "O" talent.  But playing in PARADISE always difficult in week #1. If Hawaii is using USC gun Wittek at the trigger, this situation could be outright upset. Hawai is 9-4 ATS in non-conference....TAKE!

KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK

5* SOUTH CAROLINA -2-1/2 over North Carolina @ 6:00 Eastern

Okay, the houses around Columbia are starting to shake!  First off, the Gamecocks have now lost twice to Kentucky in the last five years.  Second the ‘Ol Ball Coach is aging after an unsatisfactory 7-6 season, but that was partly due to a rough SEC schedule that illustrated heart breaking close losses to the aforementioned Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn.  In addition, SC did so with the talented Dylan Thompson (3,564) at quarterback who had 26 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions…He is gone!  So,

Spurrier will lead with Connor Mitch who has no real game experience…tough nut for sure, in an opener at a neutral site against a unit (UNC) in 17-point revenge from a 27-10 loss in 2013.  Opposing Tar Heels show with 17 starters returning, 10 on offense. QB Williams (3,068) again runs the quicksilver group that averaged 33.2 points per game.  Just remember the UNC defense shadowed 39.0 points per outing…#56 nationally (390).   UNC finished 6-7 and LOST to Rutgers 40-21 in the Quick Lane Bowl.  The last time UNC played an SEC unit was in 2010 losing 30-24 to LSU.  For me the fundamental edge is the defensive side of the ball for SC which should be faster and more improved this time around, while showing with the #11 rating in total defense (315.5) from 2014, 4.65 yards per play.  Remember too, Spurrier is most dangerous when flying under the radar…the line opened SC -3, was quickly taken down to -2-1/2.  The ‘Ol Ball Coach is normally not a play laying money on the road, but the ‘Cocks are 13-7 ATS vs. non-conference types. And, 11-3-1 ATS -3 or under. Further, HC Larry Fedora of North Carolina in his 4th year is just 16-18-1 ATS overall and 2-5-1 ATS in non-conference.  UNC is 6-4 SU in game #1, while South Carolina is 9-1 SU.  If QB Mitch stays away from early turnovers fully expect the GAMECOCKS to survive…27-22.

5* Florida International +13 over Central Florida

This is our late move from the line standpoint as the number continues to deflate (excuse me Tom) on the Strip. This actually opened around 17 in August.  The Golden Panthers bring back 15 starters from a 4-8 SU season, a major change over the 1-11 card in 2013. FIU even showed improvement ATS going 8-4 to the number after a 4-8 season. They lost four games by three points or less and seem to be on the up-tick recruiting. How the Panthers win this SU is by controlling the tempo with their developing running attack that has shown a better OL this spring. The defense improved by 12 points per game last season and with 8 RS should be testy here. Central Florida is not to be taken lightly, however, they have just 9 RS and face a big timer at Stanford on the 12th. Normally, would not go against the savvy George O'Leary but, his club could be taking this pesky visitor to lightly..TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Seattle+1*** (102) over New England @ 6:30 Eastern

….A.K.A “Deflate Gate”

Once the Super Line hit the sportsbooks the money seemed to be going to the side of the Patriots.  However, our good friend in Las Vegas mentioned the High Rollers that he does business with were all over the Seahawks.  Just keep that in mind for now.

Going back to the recent Conference Championship games, we note the Patriots destroyed Indianapolis and shutdown QB Luck to boot 45-7.  NE finished on a 1-3 ATS run after covering vs. the Colts.  Seattle defeated Green Bay 28-22 in a valued performance by QB Rodgers.  Seattle did not cover, but finished with a super 7-of-8 ATS mark.

It’s Thursday as we write our game analysis.  We find out the fire alarm system in the hotel has gone off twice, maybe three times, since the Patriots arrived in Vegas.  Other distractions include QB Tom Brady being sick.   No matter the Patriots are 14-4 SU, while the Seahawks bring the same record in play.  Seattle is the 12th team to repeat as a Super Bowl entrant.  The Patriots won back-to-back Super Bowls in 2004-2005. New England is 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl encounters, and 4-11 ATS in playoff games.  In addition,   NE is 1-9 ATS on grass.  One critical stat fact is Brady’s incomparable 20 playoff wins but, he is only 10-8 SU since those Super Bowl wins. 

My favorite player in the NFL is QB Russell Wilson who brings energy that can change the tempo and the result of a football game every time out with his running abilities.  He is a PERFECT 10-0 SU against other quarterbacks who have won the SUPER BOWL.  On offense the Pats crushed Indy by running the football creating huge gaps for Brady to throw into.  Believe this will not be the case on Sunday as Seattle has held the opposition to an average of 87 yards a game.  This will force Brady to look more down the field into the solid Seattle defensive secondary.  Key for the Seahawks is their vaunted rushing attack (Lynch) which averages 170 yards a game.  Seattle comes in +10 in turnover margin, New England +15.

We look for a huge running day by RB Lynch this is the Seahawks way to control the tempo keeping Brady on the sideline.  Remember the group from New England is averaging 30 points per game, so Seattle can’t afford to trade points and expect to win.  The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS on grass. The UNDERDOG in the Super Bowl is 10-3 ATS.  Just as important, we know Seattle travels well, so expect the crowd to be supporting Seattle loudly. 

***Line based on the Westgate sportsbook at the time of this analysis..Good Luck.

10* Indianapolis +7 nothing less....over New England

Most will look at this set up and assume a Patriots win and cover, considering the Colts will be playing back-to-back weeks on the road. We'll give the public domain the head nod as they back the overall more talented team being at home.  However, we note inside this series the UNDERDOG has been the play running at 14-5-2 ATS.  In addition, our key game changer is the fact QB Luck is not a standstill signal-caller, he will roll out, option and boot leg.  This will cause problems for the NE defense that was not an issue last week vs. Flacco...Believe this factoid insures the Colts and Patriots will be playing a dead even game until the final buzzer.  Now add in the Patriots spread record in Conference Championship games of 0-5 ATS and you have a MAJOR ANSWER to the right side of this contest.  Our AFC GAME OF THE YEAR is Indianapolis over New England.

111815

(302) 4* Seattle -7 not higher…over  Green Bay @ 3:05 Eastern

We used the Seahawks in these pages last weekend, but they needed a long INT for a touchdown to grab the cash in the 4th quarter. Clearly, Carolina proved how wrong the national talking heads were about their abilities on the playing field.  But, just like last week Seattle will need to bring it defensively again to defend their Super Bowl crown in the upcoming 2015 edition. Since the beginning of December the Seahawks have been the #1 NFL defense in total yards allowed and in points surrendered.  This is the Packers chief overall concern as Seattle is on a monster 25-2 SU run at home. The Seahawks have won seven straight kept the opposing offenses under control limiting five of the teams to seven points or less.   My favorite player in the NFL is QB Wilson and the leader is 41-13 SU as a starter.  SEATTLE has a huge edge playing their second playoff game in the post season at home, they’re rested and successful with a high level of confidence, especially with their defense healthy.  Granted the Seattle offense centers on Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (1,300+), but electric Wilson gives Seattle an added edge considering Rodgers (no matter success) will not be 100%.  For Green Bay all we can say is it was a team effort vs. Dallas, but the Pokes really lost the game in the first half when they failed to take control of the game with Rodgers obviously gimpy.  As always it will be a high level challenge for the Packers to go into Seattle and win.  When QB Rodgers (4,381) is healthy his 38 touches are a stat to revel over, but if not, GB will need to use RB Lacy often.  The former SEC running back has 9 touches this season with 1,139 yards.  His counter balance on the outside is Jordy Nelson (1,519) who brought home 13 touches to support Rodgers’ arm abilities.  The last time these two met was back in September with Seattle winning 36-16 in Seattle.  KEY:  Seattle’s defense held the Packers running attack to 80 yards on the ground. This does not bode well for the Packers, especially considering the home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the series.  Plus Seattle is HOT against the spread in the playoff rounds with a solid 5-1 ATS mark.  Realize the early money is supporting  Green Bay, but we just can’t see Rodgers’ offense not committing key turnovers allowing the Seahawks scoring chances.