3* EARLY CFB APPRECIATION ANGLES

RETURN 1:30 EASTERN FOR LATER CARD

THANKS, AND GOOD LUCK....BDS

4* Penn State+ over Ohio State

Grab the four now as the public and sharps will move on this quickly.  Last year at Ohio State, the Bucks won 39-38 and we see somewhat of a replica Saturday.  Huge revenge game for PSU, especially considering their 1-5 SU mark L6 against this hated foe.  But, we must back the Nits who are at home Saturday night, with revenge and the under valued underdog to say the least.  There are some key pieces missing from the 2017 from the Blue and White, however, the Bucks come in off a major blowout showing 1-4 ATS L5 after scoring 40+ points.  Good Luck.

3* Virginia Tech+ (133) over Duke

CFB Fan Appreciation Winner...BDS

Okay, QB Jackson is out for Tech and the defense took a hit in personnel and ego last week allowing 49 points to "ODU!"  The Gobblers now go on the road facing Duke that has won 7 straight games after crushing 55-13 against NC Central last week.  They had defeated Baylor, Northwestern and Army prior to last week.  Tech mounted over 300 yards rushing last week in their loss to ODU, this gives us an inclination that we may have an overlay on the board.  VPI has won back to back games in the series 24-3 and 24-21.  Realize the Devils appear to be world beaters, but just can't trust them laying this number.  The former Kansas QB Pruitt takes over for Jackson and the kid can play, but we assume he will be highly conservative early.  Granted with Jackson, VPI won game #1 of the season against Florida State 24-3 getting +7, so we can't discount the overall ability of the unit.  The underdog in the series is 4-1 ATS, while Tech begins 6-1 ATS after allowing 40+ in a loss.  In closing, the Blue Devils bring a 1-4-1 ATS mark after an ATS loss.  GL

3* ARMY+ (109) over Buffalo

No doubt the Bisons are flying high winning 4 straight (3-1 ATS) games.  The Cadets just missed the Sooners last in OT 28-29.  They are 2-2 SU (2-1-1 ATS) this season against a fairly good schedule.  These two have split the 16-17 games by three and four points, which is an indicator the habit maybe appropriate.  The Cadets are rated #2 in rushing the football, 315 yards per game, and should create issues for the Buffalo defense.  Technically, Army is on a 4-1 ATS run as an underdog. And, with the public projecting a letdown after OU, we have accrued sufficient value to make this another CFB Appreciation special.  Good Luck, and thank you.

3* Memphis over Tuland

Friday Fan Appreciation Move

Actually laying a tough number down in Louisiana tonight, but must give great respect to the Tigers critical stat pack.  First off, Memphis shows #12 in scoring (44.0), while the Greenies are ranked #118 accruing 15.7 points per game.  Average yards per attempt brings Memphis in with one yard on the season.  However, were the two schools differ is rushing yards per attempt offensively and opponents yards per play.  The Tigers are rated #1 in the country running the football with a 8.7 yards per rush, defensively the are holding their foes to 4.8 yards per play.  Tulane has been running at 3.6 yards (#102) per play, while ranked #89 in opponents yards per play with 6.1 yards per.   Memphis controls the series ATS with a 13-3-1 mark, 4-1 ATS L5 at Tulane.  Also, they show 12-1 ATS on the road versus a losing home unit.  Tulane comes in 1-10 ATS in Friday editions, and 1-3-1 ATS off a SU loss.  GL.

(102)

4* LA RAMS over Minnesota @  8:20 Eastern

The home standing Vikings play with a 1-2 SU record, losing to the once struggling

Bills 27-6 last week. QB Cousins (965) is the #2 rated passer in the NFL suffered

some inconsistency, while being harrassed by the DL of Buffalo. We note, Minny 

does have a few offensive linemen banged up. Overall, you Twould think the Vikes

are going to rebound from their horrible weekend. They are traveling to LA on a

short week, but have won 5 straight in the series. The Rams show 3-0 SU against

units with a combined record of 1-8, out scoring 102-36. They have the #1 

scoring defense in the NFL holding the opponents down to just 12 points a game.

Offensively, Goff (111.0) and Gurley (255) have been highly effective supported

by their wideouts and effective offensive line. LA is 6-2 ATS in September and

4-1 ATS L5 week #4 encounters. The Rams are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2018.  The 

visiting Vikings bring a 0-4 ATS mark against winning teams, while going 1-4 

ATS when challenging the NFC.  Good Luck.

(464)

5* Carolina over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

The Bengals visit Carolina with a 2-0 record (68/46) sitting in first place in the AFC.  Carolina starts 1-1 (40/39) being tied for 2nd place in the NFS with Atlanta and New Orleans.  Critical here is the fact that Cincinnati will be without RB Mixon, he is their key to a balanced attack. In addition, the Bengals are hurting at key positions.   On the road last week Carolina fell behind Atlanta early down 24-10 going into the 4th quarter, rallied but still came up short 31-24 to “Matty Ice” and company.  In 2017 Carolina dropped their last two games of the season on the road.  Clear indication the Panthers have a better chance at home laying FG or less.  Cam Newtown seemingly always fares better in this building and will get much needed assist from the locals.  And, with Carolina leading the NFL in yards per carry, we expect a ball control game and a lower scoring game than expected.  The Bengals are 5-11 SU in road games, and 1-3-1 ATS L5 when facing the Panthers.   Carolina has won 5 straight games at home and show 5-1 ATS L6 at home.  Lay the small price with the Panthers.  Good Luck.

(408)

 5* IOWA +3 over Wisconsin @ 8:30 Eastern

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

 Last week road warrior Wisconsin actually lost a home game to BYU 24-21. The Cougars rushing attack crunched the Wisky defense for 191 rushing yards. Iowa started slow against Northern Illinois, but led 38-0 going into the 4th quarter.  Iowa’s defense held NIU to 6 yards rushing, therefore, few scoring drives.  The Badgers are on a 5-1 SU streak against the hated Hawkeyes, but they still must gain closure after that devastating loss which knocked them out of the rankings.   Talking much about the running attacks, over the last two meetings won by Wisconsin 17-9 and 38-17, the Hawkeyes managed a combined rushing total of 108 yards.  If Ferentz wants to win this prime-time special Iowa needs to win the line of scrimmage.  No doubt Hornibrook and Stanley will battle it out as offensive leaders and quarterbacks. Critical, Iowa’s Stanley must not replicate his 8/24 performance in 2017.  Fortunately, for the Hawkeyes they are gaining a few injured key pieces to their lineup.  Wisconsin has won the last two in the series by 55-26, however, the Hawkeyes smell blood and should be inside the upset tonight.  Granted Wisconsin has been a super play on the road against the spread, but Iowa is on a solid 5-0 ATS run.  In addition, they show 6-1-1 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in a game.  Wisky 0-4 ATS on turf and 1-4 ATS during September.  TAKE THE POINTS.

5* Ole Miss (366) over Kent State @ 12:00 Eastern

Normally, would not lay this number with Ole Miss after 'Bama, but must estimate that the Rebs will want to save face in the SEC after their last flounder.  Remember, they have edge on the offense side at QB and RB, especially considering the smallish KSU smallish secondary.  As we fully expect Ole Miss to achieve second level space after their passing game shocks the visitor.  The Rebels are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS after losing by 20+ points and 5-1-1 ATS after achieving under 170 yards passing (Alabama defense).  Kent State shows 1-6 ATS L7 after surrendering 40+ points and 1-5 ATS chasing the SEC.  Good Luck, and thanks for using BDS.

POWER RATING VALUE....Colts+

5* Houston (169) over Texas Tech @ 4:15 Eastern

Yes, the 45-18 victory against Arizona was impressive even against a mistake prone defense.  Here the Cougars travel face Big-12 rival Texas Tech possessing an 18-12-1 SU record in the all-time series. In 2017 the Red Raiders defeated Houston 27-24, but the Cougars coughed up five turnovers to hand TTU the win.  Houston had over 500+ yards of offense and still lost.  This is game is critical for the Cougars on a national with this being a Power 5 Conference foe.  They are 13-6 ATS against non-conference teams and 15-6 ATS during September. Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?), enough said about that! So, I wonder if the Red Raiders will come to play with an overconfident psyche? Coach is still playing around with the quarterback situation, so we can’t sit around awaiting his choice.  No matter, the offensive unit is balanced and talented, and should receive some support this week from the walking wounded.

 Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?) last week 77-0, enough said about that!  But, already coach Kingsbury has sent mixed signals as to who will start at quarterback, having three capable talents.  As always, the Red Raiders have a solid balanced offensive unit, and it is one of the reasons Tech has won 8 straight non-conference games at home.  In week #1 Ole Miss beat Texas Tech 47-27 doing it with big plays.  In fact, the Rebels scored five touchdowns on drives of 5 plays or less.  Tech is 3-7 ATS L10 games and 1-6 ATS versus a unit with a >.500 road mark.  Lay the small price with Houston as they gain revenge for their give loss last season at home.  Good Luck.

Note, we taking this early because of the line value already tampered with by the wise guys.  We still want the side, but must have the aforementioned number.  Good Luck.

5* Syracuse+ over Florida State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

When you look at these two offensively you can't help think that the Sems are going in the wrong direction.  FSU is ranked #113 in 3rd conversions, so no matter how strong their defense is they will consistently give back the football.  QB Francois has had problems in down and distance situations.  The Orange have a wild and wily offense led by QB Dungey.  Under the dome up in New York brings a solid setting for a high scoring game with Syracuse's inconsistent defense.  Trends, give us Florida State @ 0-7-2 ATS in conference, while 'Cuse comes 4-0 ATS L4 games in September, 5-1 ATS after rushing for 200+ yards.  The home team in the series is 5-2 ATS.  

10* TOLEDO+ over Miami Florida

First off, the 'Canes are a road favorite in this situation, and are expected to win and cover by must experts and public opinion.  So, we jumped into our power rating system looking at double-digit underdogs that are under valued by the recent results, etc. Granted the 'Canes may win SU on the road, but the number is all Toledo.  This is our power rating mismatch of the year.  Good Luck.

Interesting situation becomes playable when you have a non-Saturday game with a hefty points in a FBS battle.  State has sufficient offense to guarantee a few scores, while the Tigers maybe looking [ast this encounter at the road ahead. State shows 22-9 ATS in roadies, while Memphis is 2-5 ATS in non-conference affairs.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati+ (102) over Baltimore

The Ravens crushed the Bills last week easily as the stat sheet was a little off the true reality.  Baltimore was granted ideal field position on numerous occasions which help make it look much easier than it seemed.  However, game #1 teams winning by four touches or more and then going on the road next week seemingly have trouble responding in a similar fashion.  Also, Flacco only one time in his road outings has been productive offensively has the offense scored more than 10 points.  And, last week the Ravens "D" was helped greatly by the inconsistency of the Bills offensive game plan. The Bengals show at home off a real nice win, and have the running game to balance their offense against the aggressive Ravens. No doubt we will once again see the Cincinnati flanks chase Flacco accruing turnovers and poor field position.  Remember this is a must win season for the coaching staff after a 7-9 in 2017.  But, the Bengals did cover 9-of-16 games last year, and took home the cash last week laying -1.  From our recollections and numbers Cincinnati appears to be the right side tonight.  Forgetting trends and systems, the fundamentals go to the underdog.  GL.

3* Charlotte+ over ODU @ 4:00 Eastern

Both units come in banged up, while the day and time change has to be of some effect on the outcome.  Charlotte brings back 18 starters with two quarterbacks still battling out for the lead.  ODU shows 16 starters back without their starter from last season, and more importantly they lost key RB Lawry.  Charlotte has lost 45-9 to Appalachian State, but stopped Division II Fordham 34-10, whereas the Monarchs have lost BB games to Liberty (52-10) and FIU (28-20).  Last season, ODU at home beat Charlotte 6-0, as the visitor could not continue drives lacking a solid passing game.  The world be expecting the Monarchs coming off BB downers to respond in kind this afternoon.  However, Charlotte is more experienced this year and is playing with more tenaciousness than ODU.  Our early season power ratings have Charlotte at a plus 2-1/2 in value vs. ODU.  Good Luck with our Appreciation Thursday edition.

4*  New York+ over Detroit

Normally, would not suggest in week #1 to back a rookie quarterback on the road, however, the Jets (

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DAY

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY DAY

4* Western Illinois over Illini

FCS over FBS with value as Illini looks to be a frustrated unit again this season.  Illinois was 2-10 last year and almost blew it in week #1 against Kent State in a 31-24 win.  Actually, Kent had a comfortable lead at half, but the Illini came back later for the win.  What most don't realize is that 5 players were suspended before the game, as coach Smith was highly dismayed.  Despite playing at home this week, they catch a fired up WIU unit looking to make this FBS struggle.

One of the media darlings this year in preseason (b/c of the coach) Coastal Carolina was defeated by the West last year 52-10. And, they are loaded once again.  Talented QB Sean McGuire brings back his 2,852 yards of offense making him the key bell weather for the team, along with a solid running game.  Also, the early pubs have Illinois down near the bottom of the Big Ten and start without an experienced quarterback.  In their last meeting the Illini during 2015 ran away from the West 44-0 but we expect this year's battle to be a highlight film. If new head coach Jared Elliot has calmed down and is able to focus for this instate rivalry, an outright win would be no surprise.  Good Luck.

3:30 Eastern

4* South Carolina+ (348) over Georgia

09/08 The second of three home games for the Gamecocks with no less the Georgia Bulldogs who went to the Championship game last year only to lose 26-23 versus Alabama. The 2017 South Carolina battle with Georgia saw the 'Dawgs winning 24-10 at home, their ninth straight win. Georgia took a 14-7 lead at half and never looked back with QB Fromm (16/22) throwing for two touches and 196 yards. In addition, the 'Dawgs were more effective in time (38:22 vs. 21:38) management, while accruing a 26-14 first down advantage. QB Bentley (227) of South Carolina struggled with two interceptions. This season Georgia does have talent on defense, but they have only 5 starters coming back. This is crucial in an early season REVENGE game for SC who needs to enhance their offensive productivity.   

Currently the line is Georgia -10 on the Las Vegas.  Over the last three seasons the ‘Dawgs have out gunned the Gamecocks 104-44, winning three straight games, covering two-of-three. SC covered last season grabbing 23-1/2 points.  Now the line has been adjusted accordingly with Georgia not the same unit on defense, while the Gamecocks have more offensive help.  SC must maintain a successful running game to stay within the number.  Also, South Carolina have gained support for their defense with Belk and Horn.  From the experience standpoint, they did play 16 frosh last week against Coastal Carolina.

Technically, in the series SC is 7-3-1 L11 ATS and 3-1-1 ATS at home.  Take the points with Gamecocks, but make sure you have +10.  Good Luck.

#3 OVERALL 2017

#8 IN FOOTBALL OVERALL

FINISHED ON MONSTER PLAYOFF RUN WITH 18-3 RECORD

09/05...UPDATE

The stage is set now as QB Foles will be starting for Philadelphia, as we estimated with our early season forecast at +4 Atlanta.  The line has moved down to -2-1/2 Philly.  However, we expect the number to increase Thursday to -3 or -3-1/2.  Now the home team has controlled the series of late from the ATS standpoint.  But, when you take in the obvious fundamental factors, including Foles' mindset and the inactive WR Alshon Jeffrey it's difficult to go against the line valued.  Jeffrey's was a key target for Foles last season digging the QB out of some tough spots.  Also, Super Bowl Champions that start the year against a unit they battled in the prior year playoffs, show a perfect 0-3 SU in game #1.  Technically, the series underdog is 4-1 ATS of late.  Good Luck.

8:00 Eastern

4* Virginia Tech+ (219) over Florida State

 In this ACC opener we have the #19 and #20 ranked units out of the preseason rankings.  The difference just might be the Sems have the more prolific offense.  Florida State brings back 12 starters 8 on the offensive side of the ball.  They are currently ranked #77 in production starters returning. On the other hand, Tech visits carrying around 7 starters offensively with a #58 ranking in production starters. But, we note great support will come from starting QB Jackson who garnered 3,315 yards of total of offense with 60% completions last season.  The major concern is the defense which shows 7 new starters, and that will be the key factor in the game determining who wins and covers. The last meeting of the schools came in 2012 at Lane Stadium as the Sems won 28-22.  The Series Record has Florida State leading 23-12-1.  Important for FSU is the return of QB Francois, who was injured last year, looking for a consistent and healthy season.  Florida State has first-year HC Taggart prepping, so Virginia Tech picks up a slight edge on the sideline.   The home team has covered 4 straight in the series, but we’re not buying.  Recall Florida State is 0-6-2 ATS L8 conference games and 1-3-1 ATS L5 in the month of September.  Tech has always played well as a road dog, especially going back to Beamer Ball.  Also, in September the Hokies show 5-2 ATS L7.  Stay with Virginia Tech to make this a competitive game staying close in a hostile environment.  Good Luck.

Louisiana is 3-0 all-time in games played at AT&T Stadium with all three wins coming over teams ranked in the Top 25 (No. 18 Texas A&M, 2011 Cotton Bowl; No. 3 Oregon in 2011; No. 20 TCU in 2013).  In addition, they show 6-1 ATS L7 on the field, while the 'Canes come in a horrid 1-7 ATS at neutral sites.  Take the points tonight with the Tigers.  Good Luck.

7:00 PM

4* (178) Louisiana Tech over South Alabama

Last year these two schools started a back-to-back series with Louisiana Tech winning the initial battle 34-16.  This time around, we have a changing of the guard for South Alabama as they bring in new head coach Steve Campbell who has an FCS background. South Alabama, out of the lowest rated conference in the FBS, returns 14 starters with improved options on offense and on the defense side of the ball. In the 2017 Sun Belt, the Jags finished 4-8, while losing their last two games of the season.  In the C-USA, the Bulldogs finished 7-6 winning their fourth straight bowl game in head coach Skip Holtz’s 5th season.  With 15 starters returning and a qualified offense and the best defense Holtz has had since arriving on campus they have a great chance to reach the championship.  In their game last season, the Jags were hurt by an ineffective running game (98 yards) circumventing consistent drives. If Louisiana Tech controls the line of scrimmage they can cover with room to spare.  Some of the key edges have to be Holtz’s experience over Campbell’s enthusiasm, and the fact Tech plays three of their first four games on the road.  Therefore, we have a major “must win” situation for Holtz and his football team.  South Alabama will be improved this season but must back Tech who is 6-0 ATS versus the Sun Belt Conference.  Good Luck.

4* (246)  Rutgers over Texas State

This situation will be all about the Rutgers defense stopping the run and getting to the quarterback.  Coach Ash of the Scarlet Knights accrues a Big-10 level of personnel vs. the #9 rated conference (Sun Belt) in the FBS.  Also, the betting line has varied this week because of starting frosh QB Sitowski.  If he limits mistakes Rutgers will cover.  Remember, Texas State uses a dual-threat triple option offense which will call for the Knights to be athletic defensively, and that issue, again, has improved over last year.  Also, State was ranked #102 in total defense in 2017 and it won't help that face a Big-10 unit Saturday.  Rutgers began the last seasons in bad shape because they faced PAC-12 unit Washington.  With the Knights 5-2 ATS L7 times out, and 5-2 ATS during the month of September.  Opposing Texas State is 2-5 ATS in September and 2-5 ATS in non-conference.  Stay with Rutgers for a surprising up-tick win and cover.  Good Luck.

6:30

10* New England (102) over Philadelphia

Super Bowl Selection…BDS

Right off too much early money on the Eagles accrues value for the World Champs.  Granted the recent bowls with NE have been close but, Philly seemingly has less talent than the prior SB combatants. This season the Eagles feasted on the “down” NFC inside their schedule so, we’re hoping there is more line movement down on Philadelphia prior to kickoff.  One of the keys for NE is that Gronk will start adding to the Brady arsenal of targets.  On the Philly side believe you’ll their tenacious defense being over excited generating penalties and players being out of formation.  I don’t have to tell you the Patriots have the experience and quarterback edge.  For the Eagles QB Foles, this maybe a little over his head.  We expect NE to pressure the youngster into mistakes early on to generate havoc in the pocket of the Philadelphia backfield.  Technically, NE shows in an interesting spot at 7-0-1 ATS coming off a home game when they scored under expectations.  In addition, the Patriots are 6-1 ATS on field turf, Philly 2-7.  The Eagles bring a 1-4 ATS record off a SU win. We close with the Patriots 16-5 ATS against winning teams. Good Luck.

4* Central Florida+ over Auburn

CFB BOWL LETDOWN THEORY APPLIED

BDS

(313) 4* NY JETS+ over New England @ 1:00 Eastern

First, let's give the New Yorkers a one up from the technical standpoint inside the series, as they show 7-1-1 ATS L9 and the same numbers relate to the underdog in the series.  Now the Jets gave an extension to some of the coaches which helps the psychology of the game for the visitor.  No doubt the New Yorkers have had a difficult time in this field historically but, can't help "feel" a small letdown is in the cards for this early set, as...NE is 12-3 SU and locked into the playoffs, The Pats with a win grab the #1 seed and home field in the AFC which should foster second-half substitutions. NY is going home for the winter rest after this battle.

The Jets have NO CHANCE of winning but, if they play well in the second quarter, the game will much closer than expected. New England has scored 165 points in its second quarters this season, the most points by any NFL team in any quarter, and have allowed opponents 98. The Patriots have fashioned those points on 16 touchdowns, and they've scored at least 10 points in 12 of their 15 games. Last year at Foxboro they outscored the Jets by 17-0 in the second quarter. This year the Jets have been competitive in their second frames, being outscored by 87-86. They'll need to be again Sunday, or else. QB Petty and the running will need to foster a significant role in clock management and TOP.  The Pats should be ahead and celebrate late in the 3rd quarter so, TAKE THE POINTS as the Jets do not want to be made fools of on the national scene.  Good Luck.

5* Mississippi St (258) over Louisville

Dan Mullen left and now the fiesty 'Dawgs must face Looie without QB Fitz who is out for the season. Let's look back at the season, MSU lost by 7 to Alabama, and Fitz only had 158 yards throwing.  It was the defense and running game that almost produced an upset in the 4th quarter.  They finished 8-4 on the season.  Looie won three straight at the end which included Kentucky.  However, they allowed 41 and 42 to Clemson and Wake this year.  QB Jackson (3,489) multi-talents ran for 1,433 yards but, this is an SEC defense that held running attacks to 127 yards a game. Believe you will see heavy early money on Looie, however, MSU is a tight bunch and will come to win this for Mullen. Remember, Looie is a horrific 1-6-1 ATS after winning by 20+ points.

5*  BALTIMORE over Indianapolis

NFL SATURDAY 68% SYSTEM 20- YEARS...BDS

ALSO, THE WEATHER IN BALTIMORE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND RAIN WHICH HELP THE MORE EXPERIENCED RAVENS POUND THE ROCK AND CONTROL.  THE 6TH SEED IN SIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE RAVENS A MORE PHYSICAL EMOTIONAL EFFORT...BLOWOUT!

224….10* San Diego State -6-1/2 over Army @ 3:30 Eastern

ARMED FORCES BOWL…BDS

Normally, at this time the year would not entertain go against a strong rushing unit such as Army but, they have a one-dimensional attack, and some of their wins were against deflated units.  The Cadets are 1-5 L6 versus the MWC.   And now they bring the #8 rushing defense in the country, leading RB Penny (2,027) and a solid four-game winning streak to their bright 10-2 season with losses to Fresno State and Boise State the best clubs in the conference.   So, I am not afraid to lay the small price considering SDS is 17-4-2 ATS after allowing under 100 yards rushing.  In closing, recall SDS beat Army 42-7 back in 2012, they once again have too many athletes for the opposition.  Good Luck.

Texas Tech should be another disinterested unit on Saturday...USF!

10* LA TECH+ POINTS vs. SMU...SMU playing in their last CFB Bowl going back in  2012. Since finishing 7-5 (#69 Power Scale), they appear to have an edge against LT who competed for 6-6 with a #69 Power Scale. Still must note their former HC Chad Morris left for the opening at Arkansas. The 'Stangs just 1-3-1 ATS outside of their home stadium and a horrid recent 1-5-1 ATS L7 in 2017. La Tech has had a nice 32-21 ATS record in bowl action L53 on the board, usually playing fairly well with a 4-1 ATS L5 vs. Bowl opponents. Critical, they are 12-5 L17 ATS as a Bowl dog. No doubt the 'Stangs have the talent edge but, may be faced with a disinterested unit. Good Luck.

10* Philadelphia+ (127) over LA Rams @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

Last week we gave you an early move on the Seahawks over Philadelphia, we cashed a nice 5* winner with the line value a plus. Here is a similar situation as the line has moved to LA interests so, we will dive in now and play the Eagles to CRUSH THE BOOKS.  Although the Eagles lost last week it should be noted they do show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after gaining 350+ total yards. Overall the Eagles come in 10-2 SU, the Rams 9-3.  Los Angeles has a slight edge in strength of schedule.  In order to beat LA, the Eagles highly rated defense will have to slow the Rams rushing attack that is accruing 4.7 yards per rush.  Philly has held running teams to 68.1 yards on average this season.  The Eagles show 7-0 ATS on grass 8-1 L9 ATS.   The Rams are 1-4 ATS in December and 4-9 ATS in week #14.  By the way, Philly brings a super 11-4-1 ATS record in week #14.  The Eagles have covered four straight in the series.  And, the closer QB Wentz (72.4) of Philly has a much higher rating than Goff (54.9) of the Rams, and the difference in the game just maybe Wentz is averaging 9.7 yards per rush, Goff 3.4 yards per. Good Luck.

4* CAROLINA +3 (116) over Minnesota @ 1:00 Eastern

This is a huge game for the Panthers as a win will tie them with the Saints for first place in the division.  On the other hand, Minny is rolling with no comes in the NFC North.  The Panthers come in 17-6 SU at home over the last three years, 5-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The Vikings have been on an extended winning streak, and bring a 6-0 ATS record in week #14.  Statistically, the units are very similar on offense and defense in 2017.   However, the underdog in the series is carrying a super 80% run, 4-1 L5 times on the board.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Cincinnati+ (380) over Pittsburgh

Obviously, they're looking to balance the books with +6 as the number allocated above, considering the "public" line Pittsburgh (9-2) -4.  However, tonight I'll take a ticket with the Bengals (5-6) who have blown away in the recent series with Pittsburgh dominating the L5 with outstanding wins.  Last time the Steelers won 29-14 at home with 400+ yards of offense, holding Cincy to under 200 overall.  It looks like a give away referring to Vegas post with the Steelers 10-0 L10 SU in prime time and 3-0 SU in the division this season.  Cincy offense is dead last posting 18+ points per game and show with a run defense that is highly inconsistent.  The key will be pressuring Big Ben who lives for the big play and deep ball offense.  Pittsburgh is 16-3-2 ATS at Cincinnati, which is not good for the home fans, however, some kind of letdown is not out of the question.  If QB Dalton stays focused, I believe the Bengals will catch the Steelers napping..  Remember, techs have the Bengals a solid 7-2 ATS at home vs. a winning road unit and 8-3 ATS after securing 350+yards in their last game.  Again Dalton must come through tonight after being sacked four times with two interceptions vs. Pittsburgh this season. SHOCKER!

(378) 5* Seattle +5-1/2 or higher over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

This super UPSET play has been coming for some time as the Eagles (10-1) have been cleaning up on the lesser or injured foes of late.  Here, the Sea Chickens (7-4) are at home which accrues a huge edge as the weather is changing and the guts become tighter in the NFL Playoff chase. The real gem in this call is QB Wilson (14-7-1 ATS as a Dog) of Seattle who's varying talent the Eagles have yet to face this season on foreign soil.  He has been the yardage leader in 5-of-the-L6 games. The question comes down to the Seahawks defense that has not been so strong (injuries) in home games of late, losing to Atlanta and Washington SU.  In what should a very different type game with each feeling out each other, the score just might be lower than the current statistical base recognizes.  Remember too, if the Eagles score 23 points or less, they are 1-9 SU under their current head coach Doug Pederson.  Where is that 12th man in Seattle?  Good Luck and TAKE THE POINTS!

4* (363) Indianapolis+ (3-8) over Jacksonville (7-4) @ 1:00 Eastern

With the high flying Jags off a 27-24 road loss at Arizona, you would estimate this line coming in around 11-1/2 or -12, not so.  And that's even with Gabs playing quarterback for the Colts?  In addition, the Jaguars have covered five straight in the series and possess the NFL's #1 defense, holding the opposition to just 168 points.  Oh, the last meeting JAX 27-0 with 518 yards of offense and 10 sacks.  Before you sell the house, remember the Jags are "expected" to roll easily today showing off a loss but, they do have Seattle and Houston up next on the schedule. In addition, the NFL favs are starting to read their press clippings of late so, don't expect the rugged Jags to complete the task here. They play with a 3-7 ATS record at home while visiting Indy brings a stellar 32-12 ATS mark off a SU loss.  Good Luck.

4* Minnesota+ (355) over Atlanta @ 1:00 Eastern

The Falcons come in hot winners of three straight and against the spread.  They have the #12 rated SOS this season but, play at home against the Vikings who have given them fits in the past.  The Vikings visit after a Turkey Day Shoot winning their 7th straight game (6-1 ATS). Minnesota has the #14 rated SOS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS in the series.  No doubt, the Falcons have been blowing leads of late and show with a horrid 3-7 ATS record after allowing 250+ yards through the air.  In closing, we don't think you will see a flat Vikings unit considering their 16-5 ATS run in December. The Minnesota defense is holding the opponents to 17.7 points a game...TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Georgia +3 over Auburn

I'll take three any day in this series that has 5-2 ATS L7 meetings and the chalk comes 6-2 ATS to boot.  We know the Tigers CRUSHED Georgia 40-17 during November and beat Alabama in rousing fashion.  However, looking back at a tough facility Auburn did fall to LSU 27-23.  Prior to their blowout loss to Auburn, the 'Dawgs had won three straight in the series.  We believe they get back on track here as the War Eagles are caught celebrating 'Bama.  Good Luck.

4* IDAHO+ over Georgia State

The line has moved up this morning to +6-1/2 or +7 pending your outlet.  This has all transpired because of the quarterback injuries facing Idaho.  And we know this is a revenge game for State after being waxed last year 37-12 by Potato Heads.  Georgia shows in bowl position already so, that just might accrue enough emotional support for Idaho to stay under this number.  Remember, the Potato Heads are a remarkable 15-1 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Also, GSU is a perfect 0-5 ATS after surrendering less than 170 yards passing in their last game, and Idaho is 8-2 ATS after a SU loss.  Good Luck.

5* TCU+ 7-1/2 over Oklahoma @ 12:30 Eastern

BIG-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

This is a major revenge situation for the Horned Frogs after being pasted 38-20 in their initial meeting with Oklahoma (11-1) this year.  However, for TCU that loss came right after an emotional 24-7 victory against "hated" Texas.  Against the Sooners, TCU fizzled in the first quarter and the Sooners never looked back with an easy win. RB Anderson sourced for 200 yards rushing.  Here we look for a MAJOR REVERSAL as the Horned Frogs have a solid 10-2 SU mark this season.  In four of the last five games with the Sooners, the final score has been decided by six points or less.  OU is 3-7 ATS L10 achieving over 450 total yards in their last game.  Also, the Sooners show 1-7 ATS at neutral sites.  TCU on a solid run of 4-0 ATS on turf and will come to play "early" here to offset the OU emotion.  Good Luck.

112717

Play on:  5* (275) Houston+ over Baltimore @ 8:30 Eastern

 Here we have another “situational” cracked egg that compounds the handicap in a Monday affair.  Specifically, the Texans (4-6) travel to Baltimore (5-5) with key injuries at the running back position which should give the Ravens DL a more than average edge at the line of scrimmage. Houston QB Savage having to throw most downs will eventually put his defense in field position quandaries. We do respect coach Harbaugh’s 8-2 SU record after a bye week.   However, all that said the Texans are a desperate unit trying to SAVE their season on the road in front of a hostile MNF crowd.  Enter, what the hell has happened to QB Flacco of Baltimore?  He has thrown 9 touches but, 11 interceptions with a horrid QBR of 74.4 coming into action.  So, we fully expect coach O’Brien to dial up the blitz packages. Also, if Houston accrues positive yardage out of their running game and QB Savage avoids the turnover issue, an outright upset would be no surprise.  What makes the Vegas number even more suspect is the fact Houston is 1-9 ATS on MNF.  So, why isn’t the number at -9 or -9-1/2.  This is one of my critical issues in the handicap, the line seems soft.  In closing, Baltimore comes in off another big win but, they're 1-4-1 ATS L6 after a win of 14 plus points.  In addition, they seemingly play down to the level of their opponent going 6-13-1 ATS versus losing units.  Houston shows 6-2 ATS on turf and a solid long-term 21-7-2 ATS after gaining 350+ yards in their last game.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* South Carolina+ over Clemson @ 7:30 Eastern

CFB Series Reverse Angle...BDS

The people down in Gamecock country won't forget the 56-7 loss last year to the Tigers. This time around, though, the showdown is in South Carolina under the lights with a national audience taking in the festive event.  SC shows 8-3 with a ranking of #24, while the Tigers field at #4. We do note Clemson is in line for the College Football Playoffs if, all goes well.  They do have the #4 rated strength of schedule this season.  Technically, the Gamecocks have covered 5 straight at home in the series, 8-2 ATS overall against the ACC.  Clemson, despite their lofty value, show 5-11 ATS in November and 2-5 ATS against winning home units.  In closing, SC will give a great fight but, the Clemson SOS will pay off late in the game with a SU win still, TAKE THE POINTS!

3* Minnesota+ over Wisconsin

CFB Fan Appreciation Side...BDS

Again cashed our Appreciation move yesterday with Baylor over TCU.  This afternoon we have undefeated Wisconsin (11-0) traveling to Minnesota (5-6) after back-to-back DD wins at home against conference rivals Iowa and Michigan. Obviously, the Badgers are the far superior unit and have won 13 straight games vs. the Golden Gophers. Also, the current line posted above -18, we expect it to move to -19 or higher by game time...VALUE!  Yes, quite possibly a letdown in some phases of the game, accruing the home unit a rare cover in the series.   Remember, Minnesota is 22-8 ATS L30 in the month of November, and 6-3-1 ATS L10 overall.  Good Luck.

112517

5* Auburn+ (226) over Alabama @ 3:30 Eastern

CFB Game of the Week…BDS

Here we go with another Iron Bowl war between two old-time SEC rivals from Alabama. At this writing, the Crimson Tide are favored -4-1/2 over Auburn, with the line opening around -3 at different spots on the Strip.  The last three games in the series have seen the Crimson Tide win by a total of 114-69, 30-12 last year at home.  But, hold on now the Tigers this season have played the #5 schedule based on the difficulty of the opponent….’Bama is at #26.  Also, Auburn will move the ball offensively against Nick Saban’s defense, and we just might see an outright upset Saturday.  Remember, Alabama is 1-4 ATS L5 in SEC games, 0-2 ATS L2.  Granted Auburn is lacking at home going 2-5 ATS but, the Tigers show 6-1-1 ATS in the SEC and 4-1 ATS in November.  Make sure have at least a FG as we see a very close game down to the last minute.  Good Luck.

10* Tulane (203) over SMU @ 12:00 Eastern

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Double Revenge for visiting Greenies after dropping a heartbreaking 35-31 decision LY at home.  This time around we find SMU 6-5 SU, Tulane 5-6 SU off BB SU wins.  Believe Tulane more positive mindset critical here in road outing.   The Greenies show 6-1 ATS at the Mustangs and 9-of-11 ATS on the road of late.   Further, they have a perfect tech 6-0 ATS after surrendering less than twenty points in the last game.   SMU comes 5-1 ATS at home but, 1-5 ATS in the conference and 4-9 ATS in the month of November.   With Tulane 5-2-1 ATS in conference L8, TAKE THE POINTS.

4* Texas -7 (142) over Texas Tech

A 5-6 Tech unit visits a 6-5 Texas club down Austin on senior night.  Tech started the season 4-1 SU but, has obviously decayed.  The Longhorns are on a solid 3-1 run after winning at West Virginia last week SU.  Texas leads the recent series ATS 6-1 with the chalk 5-2 ATS.  The Longhorns have the edge in SOS rated around #9 at most outlets.  Granted Texas has a banged up OL but, meshed well in key down and distance situations at WVU. Remember on defense they held both #4 Oklahoma and #19 Oklahoma State to season lows in yardage.  The 'Horns have the #2 rushing defense in the conference which will force Tech into throwing all night into some negative situations.  No doubt Tech has one of the highest rated offenses in the Big-12 but can't expect them to score 37 and 45 (2015 and 2016) against this Texas defense.  The Longhorns show a solid 7-2-1 ATS L10, 3-1-1 ATS at home.  In closing, Tech is a horrid 1-5 ATS in Big-12 games.  Good Luck.

3* (115) Baylor+ over TCU

Our appreciation offering yesterday, of course, won with the Vikings in a close call.  Here one-win Baylor tries to circumvent the conference title driven Horned Frogs on their home field.  Granted TCU has covered 5 straight in the series has the domination edges at many positions but, it appears it's the "spot" the sporting community may overplay.  And, that's even considering the Baylor 2017 issues, and bringing a frosh QB to the starting lineup.  No matter, this old-time traditional battle usually brings the unexpected, and we know the UNDERDOG is 6-0 ATS in the series.  TCU shows 2-11 ATS at home 1-5 ATS off a SU win.  TAKE THE POINTS!

3* KC (6-3)  -9-1/2 not higher...over New York (1-8) 

Special Note:  

Would not even think about using this situation but, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Dangerous spot for Andy Reid, as Chiefs are expected to win easily.  Add in the SU 16-2 winning mark off a bye, no doubt there are questions to be solidified. First off, Reid's teams (Eagles and Chiefs) average around 24 points coming off a period of rest.  However, during that run, they have averaged wins around 9 points.  From the points differential angle, Reid's teams show +166 vs. the opposition.  The 1-8 New Yorkers come in off two losses (82-38) and 10-22-1 ATS in November. So, you CAN BET the building will empty out early if the situation depreciates. Remember the Giants are 0-4 ATS at home thus far, while KC shows 14-of-18 ATS on the road of late.

Sorry no analysis, computer issues, back around 2:30 eastern, thanks Brad