4* NEVADA+ over San Diego State

CFB Reverse Angle of the Week...BDS

Right now SDS is rolling with an 8-2 mark at home vs. 2-8 Nevada. However, some strange techs surface in this heated rivalry.  First off, this is double revenge for Nevada, and they have gone 8-2-1 ATS during the month of November.  SDS has a winning record ATS in 2017 but, they show 1-4 ATS in home games.  Overall, they have covered just four times in the last thirteen on this field.  Overall, SDS has won back-to-back games by a total of 82-14, and they just might have somewhat of a letdown here.  TAKE THE POINTS!

LATE MONEY MOVE...BDS

5* UNLV (4-6) +2-1/2 over New Mexico (3-7)

Clearly, UNM is on a massive losing streak, while the Rebs have at least won 2-of-3 SU.  Also, the differential in the Fresno State games for each tells us a more definitive story. Also, the Rebs have covered five straight on the road and their getting points as a plus.  Recently, they have been playing much better off an SU loss at 4-1 ATS.  UNM has even played poorly in Vegas against losing teams with a 4-9 ATS mark.  Finally, they show 8-23 ATS after surrendering more than 450 yards in their last game.  In the series, UNLV has covered 5-of-7.  TAKE THE POINTS!

10* MIAMI+ over Carolina

NFL...MNF GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

Aas you know we close the NFL season on a strong consistent run.  Over the last two years our post season selections went 19-3, 86%. We cashed another 2-1 TOP PLAY card yesterday, 3-1 overall in the NFL.  Now is the time to sign-up for the remainder of the season as save cash. good luck and thank you.

10* Mississippi State+ over Alabama

CFB UPSET OF THE MONTH...BDS

10* AUBURN+ over Georgia

SEC GAME OF THE YEAR..BDS

Realize the Bulldogs are on a roll but, they could be looking down the road at a bigger game on deck.  However, the Tigers can match up in most situations on both sides of the ball.  So, with the home team 8-2 ATS in the series, we look for the OUTRIGHT UPSET.

Play on: 5* Cincinnati+3 (120) over Temple @ 7:00 Eastern (Friday)

College Friday Night Eastern Edge….BDS

This is a huge situation for each club if they expect a bowl invite. Temple is coming off a win against Navy as an underdog, while the Bearcats rebound off an underdog SU win over Tulane. The Owls have beaten the Bearcats in back-to-back games, so this is a special double revenge scenario for Cincinnati on their home field. With Temple being inconsistent on defense the ‘Cats actually have a solid chance to win this SU.  Remember, the Owls are 0-4 ATS off a SU win, while the ‘Cats are 9-2 ATS against a losing football team, and now we’re accruing line value with the public laying into Temple.  Take the points.  Good Luck.

5* Cincinnati+ (457) over Jacksonville @ 1:00 Eastern

Everything looks rosy for the 4-3 Jags, being at home, off a bye, and Leonard is back in the lineup.  Cincinnati challenges with a 3-4 frustrated unit on both sides of the ball.  However, these two have not met since 2014 when Cincy won 33-23 at home.  The Bengals are 3-0-2 ATS in the series.  JAX has reversed out their recent WLWLWLW record of late with obviously a SU loss on-deck if you lean that way.  Also, the Jags are showing off a 27-0 win rested so, they should take some time getting adjusted to the tempo.  JAX is 9-19-1 ATS off a win, 3-7-1 week #9 and 8-20 ATS off a SU win of 14+ points.  Good Luck.

3* Denver over Phila

NFL EARLY APPRECIATION MOVE...BDS

10* TCU....(382 over Texas

This is a 4-4 'Horns unit going up against the high flying Frogs from TCU who just happen to be one of the best teams in the country.  Laying -6-1/2?  TCU is 4-1 ATS, 4-1 ATS in November and 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss. Texas shows 1-5 ATS in November and 1-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points.  TCU has covered 4-of-5 in the series...BLOWOUT!

10* Maryland -3, not higher over Rutgers

One of the keys here is the changing home field from the last time they met.  How many fans will be present for the inconsistent Knights?  The Terps are 5-2 ATS against losing teams, while the road unit is 4-1 ATS in the series. Plus, since achieving bowl status last season with the help of a soft schedule, Maryland has played the second-toughest schedule in the nation thus far as its first eight opponents are a combined 32-14. The Terrapins are on pace to play the toughest schedule in the nation by season's end, as its 12 opponents are a combined 53-24. Good Luck.

Play on:  4* Navy -7 (313) over Temple

Revenge...key motivational tool for the Middies as they come into Philly looking to avenge a 34-10 loss to the Owls in the conference championship game.  Plus, the Middies lost three critical games at the end of last season to LT, Army and the aforesaid Owls which should have the visitor ready physically and emotionally.

NAVY EDGES:

ROAD UNIT 4-0 ATS IN THE SERIES

DOG 4-1 ATS (SERIES)

10-3 ATS IN NOVEMBER

STATS...

376.1: Average yards per game rushing by Navy, which is No. 1 in the country.

20.9: Average points per game by Temple which is last in the AAC and 112th nationally.

 49.5: The third-down conversion percentage of Navy, which is No. 1 in the AAC and No. 6 in the nation. By comparison, Temple’s conversion percentage is 40.5, eighth in the AAC and 59th nationally.

4* UL-Monroe (165) over Idaho (H) @ 5:00 Eastern

Double Revenge series scenario for the visiting Warhawks (3-4, 4-3 ATS) in another smashing Sun Belt game versus home standing Idaho (2-5, 3-3-1 ATS).  Despite a home situation, really can't trust the emotionally drained Potato Heads who were just CRUSHED by Missouri 68-21. Sometimes it's very difficult for a defense to rebound in a must-win situation.  ULM is the #33 rated offense in the nation this season and can produce a 500+ total yardage outing here.  ULM is 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS on turf.  And, after gaining 200+ yards on the ground they come in 4-1 ATS. Although, Idaho is at home and brings consistent numbers ATS in the conference, seemingly the Warhawks have the "critical" emotional edge Saturday.  Good Luck.

3* Louisiana Tech (175) over Rice (H) @ 3:30 Eastern

The Bulldogs show off BB disturbing losses to Southern Miss and UAB by an overall total of 8 points, now 3-4 on the season.  Rice 1-6 is at home after five straight losses to UTSA, Army, Pittsburgh, FIU and Houston by a combined point-differential of 88 points an average of 17.6 points per game.  Last year, although with a stronger unit it was Louisiana 61-16 over Rice, as the winner gained a total of 735 yards overall, 301 rushing all on their home field.  The Owls despite their record have improved somewhat in 2017 but, lack the offense to pull the upset or sufficient firepower to cover the number on their home field.  Rice is dead last in NCAA offenses securing 11 points a game and that's against the #104 rated schedule in 2017.  They are 1-4 ATS on turf (their home field), while Tech shows 4-1 ATS L5 vs. losing units and 15-3 ATS after allowing 280+ yards through the air. Good Luck.

4* West Va+ over Oklahoma State @ 12:00 Eastern

6-1 Pokes show up in West Virginia after beating Texas 13-10 down in Austin, while the 5-2 Mounties also arrive off a win 38-36 over Baylor at Waco. Last year Oklahoma State at home beat the Mounties 37-20 accruing a yardage advantage of 421-358.  Granted the Pokes have the talent advantage but, show 1-4 ATS L5 in the conference. Believe the inconsistent West Virginia defense will play their best game of the year, gaining an ATS win and maybe an outright win for the home crowd.  Good Luck.

4* Oregon State+ (110) over Stanford @ 9:00 Eastern

Stanford (5-2) travels to Oregon State (1-6) for a Thursday night Pac-12 and ESPN affair.  The Cardinal have won seven straight in the series, 6-1 ATS.  Last year Stanford won at home 26-15.  This time around Stanford is in the midst of a four-game winning streak against Oregon, Utah, Arizona State and UCLA.  Whereas, the Beavers have lost five straight to Colorado, Southern California, Washington, Washington State and Minnesota.  The Cardinal possesses the edges on offense and defense, Points for and Points against.  Classic RB Love (1,387, 11) should be ready for tonight, while Oregon State will look to replacement QB Garretson (114.3) continuing on the uptick. Starter QB Luton has been out with an injury.  From the emotional standpoint, this should be a challenging spot for Stanford who has a MAJOR REVENGE game with Washington State on-deck.  Also, in these short week starts, the home team accrues somewhat of an edge and the Beavers show off a bye.  Technically, the Cardinals have illustrated much success this year but, show 2-5 ATS after allowing 20+ points.  Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in Thursday calls, 9-3 ATS in conference and 7-3 ATS at home.  We’ll take a ticket with the Beavers to keep this close.

4* Philadelphia (478) over Washington...MNF

Redskins (3-2) are off close win against San Francisco after generating an early dominating lead. They are 10-21 ATS on Monday night.  Also, QB Cousins of Washington is a perfect 0-5 SU in MNF.  The 5-1 Eagles come in flying with great confidence and the home crowd to help support their efforts.  A few key areas that Philly should have an advantage is their tenacious DL vs. the 'Skins OL.  Remember, Washington has scrambled in third-down situations on the road converting just 37.5%.  The opposing Philly group is ranked #1 in that important offensive conversion rate with a 50.7% effectiveness.  QB Wentz of the Eagles has the sensational dual-threat capabilities which should cause real problems tonight for the Washington defense.  Trending, the Eagles are 5-2 ATS on Monday night and at home have covered 4 straight against a winning road team.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati+ over Pittsburgh

Note we had to reduce the unit strength of this play as the "players" on the Strip are chasing Cincinnati (2-3) early this morning.  Our assertion is still solid with the visitor losers of four straight in the series and 7-of-8.  Pittsburgh (4-2) is 3-0-1 ATS L4 meetings.  The Steelers are off a SU/ATS win as an underdog out in KC.  Cincy shows off a bye week after beating the Bills and come into this Sunday afternoon looking for revenge.  Both teams have struggled overall on offense this season with scoring averages under 20-points a game. So, we look for a low scoring defensive type battle which should entice the underdog money, and we agree.  Remember, the Steelers have not covered back-to-back games this season and arrive with a 1-4 ATS off a SU win.  We know Pittsburgh has controlled the series ATS but, this overall situation does favor the emotionally drive Bengals who have covered 4 straight on the road.  Good Luck.

5* TENNESSEE over Cleveland

GAME OF THE WEEK....BDS

Note, we may have a play later on today.  Here believe the 0-6 Browns are in trouble again versus a unit that is averaging 24.3 points inside a schedule that has been stronger than Cleveland.  Realize this is a road situation but, note the Browns have been playing the 30th ranked schedule in 2017.  And their 6-25-1 ATS L32 and 3-13 ATS at home (0-5 ATS October).  The Titans show 6-2 ATS after gaining over 350 yards in their last game...GL.

10* (411) Colorado +11 over Washington State @ 10:45 Eastern

Last week Washington State (6-1) was flying high going into the Cal game but, came away with a 38-3 loss.  Now the Cougars set up at home to play hard trying Colorado (4-3). The Cougars are 5-0 SU at home this season and the world is expecting a large rebound.  Colorado surely does not have the defensive talent of the Bears so, we expect a combined higher scoring game this afternoon.  Another question for State is, will QB Faulk comeback from a five-interception game, being sacked nine times?  Granted Colorado has given up 35.5 points per game this season, winning last time over Oregon State by 3. The Buffs were rebounding from three straight losses, the last two heart stoppers, 27-23 to UCLA and 45-42 to Arizona. The key for the visitor will be TOP which is critical keeping the Cougars offense off the field.  If the Buffs running attack continues to improve we should have a nail-bitter here.  Also, QB Montez of Colorado has been successful with his conservative passing game not throwing an INT in 95 attempts.  Staying away from the turnover is critical for the visitor.  Recall last year Colorado defeated Washington 38-24.  Trending we find Colorado 6-1 ATS L7 road games vs. a home unit with a winning record and 7-2 ATS on the road L9.  Washington State fields with a 1-4 ATS mark in October and 2-5 ATS record against a winning team.  In the series, the UNDERDOG is 5-2 ATS.  Good Luck.

102017

4* (384) UCLA -6 (H) over Oregon @ 4:00 Eastern

Oregon will be without QB Justin Herbert on Saturday afternoon out in Los Angeles, and that should be the demise of the Ducks this afternoon.  The offense overall has floundered since his injury.   Last week Oregon (4-3) was crushed by Stanford (5-2) 49-7. The Ducks come in 1-3 SU L4.  The frustrated Bruins show at home 3-3 overall, 1-3 SU L4.  Clearly, UCLA has the edge in strength of schedule but, must turnaround a six-game losing streak to the Ducks dating back to 2007.  They have a HUGE edge at quarterback with Josh Rosen (392.3) but, must stay away from the turnover bug (15, L6 games) to be successful both SU and ATS.  On defense, that’s another story for a Mora coached unit allowing 40.5 points per game.  However, Oregon has a very young team especially on defense and we believe they will not illustrate consistent pressure against UCLA QB Rosen.  Granted there are trending numbers favoring Oregon but, without the ability to control TOP we’ll take the Bruins.  The Ducks show 2-7-1 ATS on the road L10.  Good Luck.

4* UCONN+ (318) over Tulsa @ 12:00 Eastern

As you know we used UCONN as a major play on this site last week. Here we catch the Huskies at home, while being booked as the underdog(?). For decades in College Football there has been a noted negative losing pattern of major proportions when schools from the South or Southeast region come East booked as the favorite.  Tulsa is 0-3 SU on the road this season, and show off an upset win over Houston.  UConn cashed last week down in Philly when they defeated Temple in an AAC game.  The Huskies actually have a viable chance of running the football Saturday against a Tulsa rush defense (dead last nationally) that is hurting at the line of scrimmage. Also, UCONN has a major edge in senior starters 15-10. From the trending standpoint, Tulsa is a perfect 0-6 ATS after allowing less than 20-points in their last game.  Good Luck.

3* Louisville +6-1/2, prefer 7....over Florida State

CFB Fan Appreciation Saturday Special...BDS

Sorry, no analysis appreciation moves

102017

5* Middle Tennessee State+ (310) over Marshall @ 7:00 Eastern

Our C-USA Game of the Week has 5-1 Marshall visiting 3-4 MTS.  Despite, the change in quarterback (Stockstill injured) to young Urzua, the Blue Raiders attack is holding well and playing more efficiently at home.  Actually, MTS seems to be in a qualifying spot with this a huge revenge game after being crushed last year and showing now 4-0 ATS off a SU loss.  Also, Marshall maybe somewhat overvalued nationally as the Blue Raiders have faced a more challenging schedule.  In closing, we’ll back the home team that clearly has the emotional edge, while covering four straight in the series.  Good Luck.

#1 nationally in 2017

10-0 perfect run in College Football

12-1 L13 selections overall

15-1 in the NHL L16

10* Rams (265) over Jacksonville @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL Sunday Late Money Move Top Play Alert...BDS

Buy before the line drops...Good Luck.

3* Minnesota (260) over Green Bay

One of the great fundamentals here is the fact the Vikes are #1 in the NFL in opponent 3rd down conversions (2.8).  That's critical the Packers coming off a huge offensive showing last week.  However, GB is 2-8 ATS after surrendering 30+ points in their last game, and Minny is a super 9-1 ATS at home against a winning road unit.  Appreciation Winner!!  More to follow.

4* LSU (208) +7-1/2 over Auburn

Over the years LSU has been a very dangerous team in Death Valley when they appear to be overmatched. Visiting Auburn is 5-1 vs. LSU's 4-2 record.  Key...the ability of the LSU defense to circumvent the Auburn running which is their most important offensive cog. Recently, the LSU OC has brought back the old jet sweep which has helped the attack.  Because Auburn's defense has a tendency to overact we think LSU can produce more than expected offensively. Overall, this should be a defensive struggle and a close game. The home team in the series is 7-1 ATS, while LSU has covered 4-of-5 in the series.  Good Luck.

4* (155) Florida State -7 over Duke

Difficult game for the struggling 1-3 Sems but, can't trust Devils who are off back-to-back losses. Florida State has the major edge at the line of scrimmage with their tenacious athletic defense, and remember State is a desperate unit. Both units have key injuries, Sems a little more attrition but, they have more depth.  FSU is 19-0 SU in the series winning by double-digits in all.  Duke (4-2) has lost back-to-back games after starting with four straight wins.  Realize this is huge game for the Devils but, trust Sems personality and talent especially, if QB Jones plays a conservative game and stay away from key turnovers in positive field position.  FSU has covered 5 straight in this building. Good Luck.  

4* (104) Carolina -3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Both units are in first place within their divisions at 4-1 SU, the Panthers show off amazing back-to-back road wins 33-30 over New England and 27-24 against Detroit.  Carolina is 3-0 SU on the road this season, 1-1 at home being waxed by NO 34-13 in week #3.  The Eagles have won three straight over NYG 27-24, 26-24 at the Chargers and 34-7 over Arizona. QB Wentz (137.8) leads the NFL in 3rd down effectiveness but, Carolina has limited the opposition quarterbacks to a passing rating of 87.8.  Just remember Philly’s recent wins have been against suffering football teams with a 3-12 SU mark.  Critical, the Eagles will be without Sproles, Darby, Johnson and Cox with other players nicked up in the first 22. Also, Philly coach Pederson is 0-6 SU on the road without Lane Johnson in the lineup. Further, Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS on the road L10 times out.  The Panthers come in 12-5-1 ATS in week #6 affairs.  The chalk in the series is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run.   

5* (317) Eastern Michigan+ over Toledo @ 12:00 Eastern

Normally, would never go against the Rockets at home against a lesser foe but, their defense is dropped to #95 in total defense nationally.  So, despite EMUs frustrations this season, they should get under the number and challenge Toledo SU.  EMU is 12-3-1 ATS on the road and 8-1 ATS against .500+ units. Toledo on a recent down at home is 0-5 ATS in Vegas.

4* Arkansas State (301) over Georgia Southern @ 8:00 Eastern

A Decent number for State to lay on the road considering they are just 1-2 SU with the only win over Arkansas-Bluff.  In 2016, Arkansas State at home survived 27-26 against Southern.  Where they major change here is on offense where State has become more of a passing with QB Hansen (10/2) throwing for 985 yards and 69% completions.  Southern has new starter behind the center in QB Wertz (2/2) but, he has struggled to throw the football with just 230 yards in three games.  Also, on the playing field Arkansas State eleven senior starters to just four for Southern.  Overall, the visitor has too many weapons at this point in the season for Georgia Southern. Remember, State is 5-0 ATS off a bye week.  Good Luck.

4* Philadelphia+ over San Diego

The Chargers seem very overpriced here knowing they are 0-6 ATS off a SU loss and 0-7-1 ATS L8. They 0-3 SU, and don't seem to play consistently throughout the football.  The Eagles 1-2 have been in all three of their games, despite a 1-2 record.  What I like here is the Philly yards-per-point of 14.5 vs. the Chargers 19.7, while at home LA is showing 25.8 yards per.  Eagles by a FG.

5* Cincinnati over Cleveland

NFL GAM OF THE WEEK...BDS

In Bill Lazor's first week as OC, the Bengals got the ball out of Andy Dalton's hands quicker and relied more heavily on their best weapon, A.J. Green. Cincy also finally leaned on Joe Mixon. The rookie earned 21 offensive touches in Week 3, exactly equaling his workload in the first two games combined. We should see more Mixon this week. The patient runner has superior vision to go along with game-breaking ability. With Mixon as a dual-threat, it should open up play-action shots from Dalton deep against a Browns secondary that has been burned often through three games. With the Bengals winning 5 straight in the series we'll stay with the road unit ATS.

3* (252) Miami+ over New Orleans @ 9:30 Eastern

NFL Early Foreign Edition…BDS

Here we go again with the beleaguered NFL playing across the pond in an early morning set US.  Last week the underdog Fish were smashed by the New York Jets 20-6 in what looked like one feeble football team.  The Saints (1-2) last time out smashed the “Panthers” 34-13. To begin with the Dolphins lost their starting QB and had use retread Jay Cutler which proved to be another offensive mistake by the Miami brain trust.  The Saints after going 0-2 really step out in their Carolina win as QB Brees had a super game and the running attack finally showed some steam.  Remember, the Fish have more talented defense than offense and catch the role of an underdog in an early start (Jacksonville). New Orleans no doubt has been a super October ATS machine of late but, the unit is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS off a win of 14 or more.   The “obvious” technicians will be all over NO but, I like our chances with +3, +3-1/2 and Miami. 

4* (484)…LA over Kansas City @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL Upset Alert….BDS

Difficult game to assess, somewhat, considering the visiting Chiefs are winners of 6 straight in the series and have Andy Reid as their coach.  I’ve always enjoyed capping Reid’s games going back to his days with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The visitor has recently crushed their division opponents, however this situation seems to setup well for the home standing Chargers.  Critical will be the LA defensive abilities trying to corner the down the field attack of KC with QB Alex Smith looking to do damage.  Remember, though, this game is more important to the Chargers who have started 0-2 SU, while losing in horrible fashion in each encounter.  If QB Rivers (73.6%) can extract some midfield openings for his receivers the Chargers may control the tempo of this football game.  We think he has a great shot especially, considering the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game.  We close with LA 11-4-2 ATS in September.

5* (410) Stanford -7, nothing higher over UCLA @ 10:30 Eastern

CFB PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Power numbers give us the Cardinal tonight at home.   Granted they are 0-5 ATS vs. >.500 units and 0-4 ATS at home recently.  However, they show 11-3 ATS off a SU loss, and now we have "true" line value with the public taking down the early quote.  UCLA (4.2) has deficit running numbers compared to the Cardinal 7.5 yards per carry, which is a critical insight when evaluating "TOP."  Finally, "I could go on forever" the favorite in this series is hitting a red hot 78% against the number.  Buy at -7!  Good Luck!

4* Army (381) +3 over Tulane @ 12:00 Eastern

Would feel stronger about this situation if they were, obviously, playing back east....but, we still favor the Middies (2-1) who should control the line of scrimmage and the game clock.  Respect Tulane (1-2) who can score but, their defense should not have the long-term capabilities of shutting down their opposition.  Remember, is 5-1 ATS vs. the AAC and 8-2 ATS in the month of September.  The Greenies show with a horrendous 1-8 ATS home mark vs. winning road units.  Good Luck.

10* Louisville+ over Clemson @ 8:00 Eastern Saturday

CFB TOP UPSET ALERT....BDS

10* UMASS+ over Temple @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB EASTERN EDGE TOP PLAY...BDS

4* (459) Philadelphia over Washington @ 1:00 Eastern

Washington almost booked a playoff game last season and here they opened as a -2-1/2 favorite way back in the summer out on the Strip. Philadelphia deflated last season behind young QB Wentz, however, the kid was truly hammered at times looking shell shocked against the upper crust of the league.  Owner Lurie, though, opened up the purse strings and went after some key offensive talent to allow Wentz some weapons to make a difference.  If newly acquired RB Blount (NE) has a "good" day the Eagles have a great chance of securing a week #1 (4-0 ATS) win on the road. Washington lost critical late season games to the Giants and Panthers of which their followers have not let them forget. Granted QB Cousins is back to run the offense but, they have 7 new starters to blend in this early start? 

In their December (2016) back breaking loss to Washington (22-27), the Eagles defense gave up a rushing TD with under 2:00 minutes of the 4th quarter for a come from behind loss.  Philly ran 76 plays to 46 for Washington. In addition, the Eagles had a 13 minute time of possession advantage but, the 'Skins outgained them 11.1 to 6.8 yards-per-play.  So, this a HUGE REVENGE GAME for Philly who now have weapons for Wentz to utilize against the so-so 'Skins defense.  Remember, Washington has not won an opening day encounter going back to 2012.  Eagles by 4.

5* Auburn+ (377) over Clemson @ 7:00 Eastern

Brad Diamond's Famous SEC Game of the Week

This is game #2 of the season for these stellar programs out of the ACC and SEC.  Both schools won against smallish programs in week #1.  The defending national champions Clemson, though, have a huge hurdle to overcome Saturday, playing against a SEC unit without QB Deshaun Watson who has graduated to the NFL.  That's ground's enough for this handicapper to give Auburn a more than serious look, especially when you consider that today's visitor has dominated the series 33-14-2.  Clemson brings just 12 starters back, while Auburn has 15 in the fold. Clemson comes in winners of three straight in the series, which equates to a triple revenge scenario for Auburn and they're getting points!  And, we remind the public Auburn has covered 5-of-6 in non-conference games.  Good Luck.

4* Kansas City+ (451) over New England @ 8:30 Eastern

Psychologically this encounter belongs 100% to the Kansas City Chiefs and old-time head coach Andy Reid.  We’ll start with the Patriots (14-2) who won the Super Bowl 34-28 after being behind 28-3 in the third quarter versus the Falcons.  Prior NE had defeated Houston, and then Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game.  The Patriots are the only team in history to win back-to-back Super Bowls. For sure, NE grew to be Vegas sweet hearts again finishing 13-3 ATS (8-0 streak).  Here, they play as the chalk (-8, -9) at home in this Thursday night affair to begin 2017.  On the other hand, Kansas City came out of the 2016 campaign 12-4 after crushing late on a 10-2 SU run, however, Ole Andy lost to the Steelers in the divisional round playoffs 18-16.  Remember that because, the Chiefs play big games close as a habit. Coach Reid is 6-0 ATS challenging AFC East entrants.  These two faced each other in the 2016 playoffs with NE winning 27-20.  The key fundamental stat from last year that provides underdogs with a built-in edge is the Chiefs defense which scored 5 touchdowns on that side of the ball.  Important, KC was ranked #1 in turnover margin (+16) in 2016 and return an outstanding front seven defensively.  Granted the Chiefs lost RB Ware and will be using a third string running back for the most part but, NE also will miss an ace on their offense WR Edelman.  With so much tension in the line for the Patriots believe we’ll see a FG game and quite possibly an over-time affair.  TAKE THE POINTS!

Colorado over Colorado State

Surely, this spot points to line value for the Buffs, even though the Rams played last week.  Coach McIntyre has CU sky high for this date in Denver (neutral site) and he already stated that QB Montez is ready mentally and physically, despite being tagged as the starter for the season.  Remember, last year the kid played well in relief and had a massive game at Oregon. The talk is the Buffs lost too many starters on defense but, we disagree.  They have very talented replacements on defense and a huge OL that will fortify their crushing running attack.  The last time these two played the Buffs won 44-7. Look for a different type venue here with the Rams flashy QB and there ability to throw down the field.   Look for Colorado to dominate with their ball control offense frustrating the CSU defense, and keeping their offense off the field.  Technically, Colorado is 4-0 ATS in September and have covered the last 11-of-15 in the series.  State is 5-12 SU against the PAC-12.  Finally, believe there is a close game on deck but, we see Colorado winning by 7.  Good Luck.

Fla. Atlantic+ over Navy @ 8:00

Clearly, the "Trap Game" of the day in College Football.  First off, Navy comes in the more established program with a solid coach running the triple option.  FAU has some solid assets of their own with Lane Kiffin running the show.  He has picked up some HIGH-LEVEL talent to fortify the Owls program.  And, he now has another riverboat gambler in OC Kendal Briles.  So, we look for an uptick offensively. When looking at the returning starters from the production standpoint, FAU is ranked #8 on offense.  On defense, the production base of returning starters has an effective yield of 76%.  The Middies come in a huge favorite but, bring only a 32% production efficiency on offense. Their defense has a 53% production effectiveness, overall the squad is ranked just #103 in the nation.  This situation might surprise some but, I know Kiffin would like to start 2017 with a win.  For now, we'll just TAKE THE POINTS.

(305) 10* Pittsburgh over Kansas City @ 8:20 Eastern

No matter the line can’t trust Andy in a pick situation vs. the better quarterback with “Mo.”  Granted the Steelers are 0-4 ATS in Kansas City, but Pittsburgh has built up some props as is accruing current reality advantages on the playing field.  With the Chiefs 1-7 ATS in playoff games, there is only one-side on Sunday…Pittsburgh!

5* Florida over Iowa

Have great respect for Iowa program but, there is too much Gator speed and math applications that reflect a stronger positioning case for the favorite.  Would be, somewhat, conservative considering we cashed both 10* College moves on Saturday.  Good Luck!

home team in series 9-0 ATS, and until this string is broken must favor Miami and their ability to score and quite possibly bring this under the posted total to ensure an ATS cover.  Also, Miami has covered the L4 at home in the series.  Brady will be cocked but, resilient home unit will grab the cash.  Good Luck.

5* Green Bay (112) over Minnesota @ 1:00 Eastern

Xmas eve and we’re loaded with football to say the least.  Arch rival Minny travels to GB where they are 2-5 ATS L7 times out.  Granted the underdog has been the recent side but, the line is telling us something from the math and power rating standpoint.  Minnesota, after a solid start this season has fallen on hard times dropping seven of the last nine and punishing their backers.  The Vikings are #3 rated unit in total defense, so they should have some success containing Rodgers but, not at this price with so much at stake.   The Vikings are 1-4 ATS L5 on the road, while GB is 7-2 ATS during December.   Further, the Packers complete with a 4-1 ATS mark on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in week #16.  These are strong indicators they finish strong in the money column and the improved should help the Packers here.