COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK

5* AUBURN +3-1/2 (394) over LSU @ 6:00 Eastern

Still not impressed by LSU thus far, considering we thought a National Title just might be in the cards.  However, the start-up of new DC Aranda’s defense showed some issues last week even in the win over a MSU unit that returned just 11 starters and were playing on the road already with a loss against South Alabama in their deck of cards.  Also, LSU has a banged up offensive line and there were many verbal out bursts on the sideline trying to generate cohesion last week.  Granted Fournette had a solid game, and he went nuts against the Tigers front last season for 200+ yards.  Still, Auburn has the running arsenal to power the LSU defensive line, even with their issues on the OL.  They have a workable QB in Stan White and 12 overall returning starters who were destroyed by LSU last season 45-21.  We look for a nail-bitter this time around as the home team in the series is 6-1 SU L7 times out and 6-1 ATS.  By the way, Auburn is 7-1 ATS off a double digit loss.

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10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

(304) Georgia Tech+ 9-1/2 or higher over Clemson @ 7:30 Eastern

Okay, maybe you’re not impressed by the 3-0 Engineers who have defeated Boston College, Mercer and Vandy the last three outings and now play on a short week versus Clemson who has a perky national ranking.  Still, when coach Johnson (3-9 LY) is dealing out the endorphins this week his 11 returning starters will accept whatever the savvy Johnson can generate.  Clemson (14-1 LY), who returns 12 starters, surfaces off three straight wins over Auburn (at), Troy and South Carolina State.  Tech may actually be their most difficult task as far as talent level thus far.  Unfortunately, the Tigers play off a short week too, but have a monster issue with Louisville next in South Carolina.  Feel Tech should have the emotional advantage here, considering Clemson beat them last year 43-24 holding their rushing attack to under 2 yards a carry.  “It appears” coach Johnson has a more balanced edition, and being at home possess legit shot at SU win.  Remember the Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in the ACC and 2-7 ATS on the road.  With the home team covering 6 straight in the series, we’re all over the Engineers!

(269) 4* Cincinnati+ 3-1/2 not lower, over Pittsburgh @ 1:00 Eastern

Pittsburgh crushed Washington 38-16 after Big Ben threw 3 touches to augment the surprising easy win.  The tables turn this week when the Steelers face one of their arch rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals broke the Jets wings with a 23-22 huge victory at New York in week #1.  Also, if you’re into ATS streaks we welcome you to the Cincinnati side of the ledger….how about 9-0 ATS in road games on-deck.  That is the reason for the conservative home chalk number placed aside Pittsburgh -3-1/2.   The road unit and underdog is on a 3-1-1 ATS roll in the series.  Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in this building, but shows 6-0-1 ATS in week #2 and 9-2-2 ATS off a SU win.  Despite Pittsburgh having corresponding positive trends, they play Sunday with a 1-5-1 ATS mark on Sunday after a MNF encounter.  This spot calls out Cincinnati!

Note, computer problems, analysis should restart Monday afternoon. Sorry, Brad.

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5* UCLA -3, not higher (169) over BYU (H) @ 10:15 Eastern

Have great respect for QB Josh Rosen of UCLA and his playmates in this difficult setting out in Provo.  Last year in California the Cougars were catching doubles and almost won the whole game, before going down in a 24-23 heap.  BYU is coming off a 9-4 season returning 15 starters.  They defeated (-1) Arizona in Glendale 18-16, then dropped a heart breaking 20-19 battle at Utah, while catching three plus.  To say the least they have driven their fans looney quite early.  UCLA finished 8-5 last year, and brings back 13 starters, 9 on defense.  In game #1 they lost to Texas A&M on the road in OT 31-24.  Against (-26) UNLV, the Bruins pranced to a 42-21 win.  In both cases there were minus signs next to their supporter’s financial statements, and here the Bruins open -1 vs. BYU, but the hard heads have pushed it to -3 this Thursday afternoon.  And, the basic trends behind the game favor BYU who is 4-0 ATS at home L4 times out.  However, we really LOVE UCLA who is off an easy encounter versus lesser UNLV, while the Cougars show off that 1-point war on the road.  Since we’ve checked out the BYU secondary, feel QB Rosen has a superior edge over the opposing stop troops…UCLA 30 BYU 20.

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK...Missouri +7

The line tension all week has been with the 'Dawgs realizes that Chubb is healthy and running.  But, the Tigers have lost back-to-back games to this squad and surely needs emotional lift for the games ahead, and they are at home.  Granted Mizzou scored 61 last week on hapless Eastern Michigan, and is not reasoning we focused upon.  Instead, it's conference bounce back, the home field and the fact, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS after scoring 40 plus.  Good Luck.

10* Texas State +31 or higher over Arkansas

LETDOWN THEORY GAME OF THE MONTH

No doubt the 2-0 'Hogs have the offense to score most every position versus smallish TSU.  In fact, the last time they laid -31 was in game #1 of last season winning 48-13 over UTEP.  However, the 'Hogs had Toledo next, so there was no look ahead scenario, whereas this time there is much more to ponder with Texas A&M on-deck.  Talk about a revenge game!  Arkansas has lost 4 straight to TAM, as the Aggies are one of the circled games for coach Bielema's troops.  When go back and review the last five games prior to Texas A&M, you will find the 'Hogs have come up short in the money category going 1-4 ATS.  Look for the 'Hogs at home to jump out quickly and coast to marginal win over the Bobcats, who show off a week of rest. 

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3* Tulane+ (200) over Navy @ 7:00 Eastern

Looking at the Wake Forest stat sheets in their early games with Tulane and Duke, we feel good that the Greenies will be able to move the football on the Navy defense, despite a unit having 7 returning starters.  In our minds Tulane will not only give the Middies a better game than UConn (11-26 L3) but, win SU.  UConn last week couldn’t run the football against Navy, Tulane’s diversified running game will make this encounter a down for down stress filled battle in Louisiana.  Remember Navy has just one returning starter on offense, Tulane has 5 with a solid bunch of contributors.  Last week against lesser Southern University the Greenies finally got their offense untracked.  This psychological up-tick should help with the confidence level of the team and first year coach Willie Fritz.  Last year Navy (-25) defeated Tulane 31-14 in Annapolis, that was after back-to-back disheartening wipe outs by Temple 49-10 and Houston 42-7 for the Greenies.  When playing Tulane last year Navy was showing off a 41-24 beating by Notre Dame, so the Middies were sky high at home.  The line has trickled down since the Sunday night opener of -11 with the public becoming aware of the competitiveness of Tulane, and the fact the triple option run by coach Fritz will cause interior issues on defense.  As a reminder there is a 100% estimate of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday in New Orleans…TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Northern Illinois +11 over San Diego State

LETDOWN THEORY APPLICATION

BDS...We couldn't pass this up knowing the Aztecs show off their California upset in a real offensive show.  However, they now go on road (cross country) to play in Illinois against what I call a square football team.  Look they show off being down in Florida 48-17 by SF.  Rod Carey was 8-6 last season but, his unit, as the decided underdog, is simply getting too many points at home.  HC Carey had 43 games coming into this season, and he knows how to jack up his squad. Granted this same squad did lose their MAC Title game last year so, they now have a chance to regain some "Mo" while shocking the public dollars.  NIU has 13 starters returning, therefore, sufficient experience to win the whole game.   Do you think the kids from California want to visit Illinois on a Saturday, when they could riding the waves?

10* JETS +1 (101) over Buffalo @ 8:25 Eastern
AFC THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
Brad Diamond Sports
Yes, Rex Ryan and his Bills have defeated the Jets in 5 straight games.  However, can't even suggest the home team considering they dribbled through 178 yards of total offense against the stout Baltimore defense.  They managed just 11 first downs last week. The Jets played a more talented team in Cincinnati, but lost a buster 23-22. Right now the Jets are higher on our power ranking chart and seem to have sufficient enough defense to limit RB McCoy who slashed them for 112 yards on this same field last November. Also, the Jets defense pressured QB Dalton of Cincinnati in week #1. That's key, putting pressure on the Bills passing game that couldn't throw down field last week against the Ravens.  The Bills are 7-18-1 ATS when they go for under 90 yards rushing in their last game. New York comes in a solid 5-1-1 ATS in week #2 and 6-2-1 ATS vs. the AFC East.  With New York defensive line starting to improve, we'll back the Jets to knock off Rex and company.

10* CINCINNATI +7 or 7-1/2 over Houston

This situation fits into reverse angle set of games with the type of offense the Bearcats they should be able to take this to the wire.  We would love to have +7-1/2 instead of the flat 7, but we'll take the points considering the overall handicap.  Good Luck!

5* SAN FRANCISCO+3 over LA

Another historic game on the west coast with the Rams moving back after 21 years in STL.  Although favor a unit with a relocation angle, especially in an old rivalry, still can't trust the inconsistent Rams.  When you figure no adores Chip Kelly any longer since moving to the pro ranks, it unthinkable going with the Duck Dandy.  However, this long and historic series seems to favor the Niners on MNF.  Remember SF is 24-6 ATS on Monday night and 5-0 ATS in week #1 fights.  LA with a good coach still can't avoid the turnover with their 3-12 ATS record in week #1 sets. Good Luck!

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5* Miami (6-10) +10-1/2 (471) over Seattle (11-7)…NFL GAME OF THE WEEK @ 4:05 EASTERN

Not afraid to go into the teeth of the Seahawks den knowing we have a Dolphins unit who will come to play for four quarters no matter the score.  Surely, we believe that line assertions -7-1/2 to -10-1/2 have the public thinking blowout, but we simply don’t agree.  The Dolphins finished 6-10 SU last season, exited the coach and now the franchise has invested in first year mentor, and former OC, Adam Gase.  He has a difficult venue to begin his head coaching tenure playing at Seattle and facing the experienced Pete Carroll (7th year) who is 68-40 SU in his coaching career.  The Seahawks lost in the playoffs 31-24 to Carolina, and are anxiously ready to erase the stigma from that game. Last year Seattle was 5-3 SU @ home and 4-4 ATS. Miami went 3-6 SU & ATS in road games last season, but the Dolphins seem more excited about this game with their new HC.    In their three road wins last season, they defeated Washington in week #1, Philadelphia and New England in the final week of the season.  This preseason they appear more satisfied with the continued development of quarterback Tannehill (4,288) who is coming off a nice stat year.  Remember, Miami is 5-1 SU & ATS against the superior Seahawks, and I won’t discount their resolve today knowing their opening against difficult odds CenturyLink Field.  The value for this handicapper is with the points and the Dolphins.

373...10* UNC over Illinois @ 7:30 Eastern
Last year North Carolina defeated the Illini 48-14 on their home field. The Tar Heels have won all three games in the series SU.  The line opened -10-11 approximately, and the public has been on the TAKE all week, as the Heels now -7 this morning.  Smell a trap? You bet!  The Fighting Illini have been hurt by graduations and injuries in their defense and now return only 4 starters on that side of the ball. On offense they should put up points considering the home field and their 52-3 win over FCS unit Murray State last week.  However, we note UNC was 11-3 last year tying a record, and bring back 14 starters frustrated from a bowl loss to powerful Baylor 49-38.  They averaged 40+ last year, and gave SEC, Georgia all they could handle last week in Atlanta. But, some analyst's down on the 'Heels?  Finally, North Carolina has now lost back-to-back games to Class units in Baylor and Clemson (ACC Title Game), and should rebound, even on the road, against a defensively challenged football team 31-14.

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3* (383) BYU+ over Utah @ 7:30 Eastern

Realize there has been substantial money bet on the Cougars out in Las Vegas last night, but still prefer this unit as one of the more dangerous in America with 15 returning starters and experienced QB Hill leading the offense.  Last week BYU went into Arizona and won SU 18-16 over Rich Rod and 15 returning starters, quite an accomplishment.  Utah shutout FCS unit Southern Utah 24-0 limiting their offense to just under 260 yards overall, but again an FCS school.  No doubt this traditional holy war has more relativeness for the Utes who will come to play at home.  However, this is a major REVENGE GAME for the visitor knowing they lost to Utah in the Las Vegas bowl last season.  Plus, the Cougars have lost 5 straight to the Utes, and desperately need to turn the heat up in Salt Lake City this evening to keep their preseason projections in play.  This encounter comes down a late score and a SU and ATS winner for the foe who can move the football on the ground.  BYU has made changes on the offensive line because of injuries, so we are keeping this play as an APPRECIATION order for our clients, thinking it will still be a nail-bitter.

10* ARKANSAS STATE+ over Auburn

This is a play against the War Eagle with coach Malzhan being a former coach at Arkansas State, and most likely not trying to step on their faces.  Granted Auburn lost a tough call last week to Clemson, but they have A&M next week?  Last year Malzhan faced three non-conference types before an SEC opponent, and did NOT cover the spread.  Mental here all Arkansas State as they steal cash from the War Eagle backers.  LOVE THIS GAME!

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3* Colorado State (350) -10 over UTSA @ 4:00 Eastern

The home standing Rams come off a 44-7 squashing by arch-rival Colorado, as the Buffs ran for 260 yards and almost 600 yards in total offense.  UTSA under former LSU assistant coach Frank Wilson defrocked FCS Alabama State 26-13, but has key RB Williams in limbo for this encounter.  Most observers did not realize (in value) how much CSU lost on defense from last season.  Colorado rolled out to a 31-0 lead at half-time augmented by a fumble-recovery touchdown in the first quarter which pretty much told the story of the football game.  Last year CSU struggled against UTSA on the road surviving 33-31, but the Rams were really flat early (down 17-9) in the first-half.  QB Stevens threw three touches to recoil his unit.  This past Saturday both Stevens (4th year junior) and Bauta had problems driving against Colorado simply because they were “forced” to pass after falling behind.  We note, prior to the UTSA game CSU had lost back-to-back heart breakers to Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  With the embarrassing loss versus Colorado, expect head coach Bobo of State to have his unit ready at home. CSU is 6-1 ATS laying double-digits and 8-3-1 ATS in non-conference battles.  After last week and this the home opener in beautiful Fort Collins…CSU 30 UTSA 17

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5* East Carolina (332) over NC State @ 12:00

Last season Brad Diamond Sports finished 22-13-1 in the famous Wise Guys’ Contest…63% ATS.  We have been the champion twice in our career which is quite an accomplishment when you consider the elite list of handicappers in the contest every season.  My best bet in the contest, if you missed it, was East Carolina noting line value and a reputable old system that projects out currently at 27-6 ATS.  Critical, NC State has had difficulties on grass of late going 1-7 ATS.  Also, the Wolfpack is 0-4 ATS off a SU win.  The Pack has averaged 6.9 wins per season over the last four campaigns and brings back 14 starters from a team that lost to UNC (you know many NCS fans are restless) in 2015, and no bowl game to boot.  ECU is an unknown quantity, somewhat, with new head coach Scottie Montgomery taking the reins.  Montgomery has coached both on the college and pro (Steelers DBC) level, but what I like most he was the OC at Marshall which is a school that normally produces diversified offenses.  To solidify our notes, no one should doubt the Pirates resolve today considering they have a senior quarterback Nelson (Rutgers transfer) leading the attack, while possessing more speed on defense.  ECU brings back 11 starters, but apparently with a more diversified attack, and a positive mindset behind Montgomery.  Remember both schools easily defeated FCS units last week.  We note the Pirates have been hot in Vegas when facing ACC types…6-0 ATS L6.  East Carolina leads the series 4-1 ATS…EAST CAROLINA+

10* Denver +3 or +3-1/2 (452) over Carolina

452...10* DENVER +3, try to buy 1/2 point to get to three-and-a half. No matter, we like the Broncos as SB Champion is getting points at HOME!  Granted no Manning, but recall 24-10 SB win by Denver illustrated their defense more than the attack unit. Also, the losing unit in Super Bowl virtually never starts strong documented by a 1-14 ATS mark in game #1 of the season. Good Luck this year!

5* MIAMI OHIO+ over Iowa

CFB LETDOWN THEORY OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* DENVER +6..nothing lower over Carolina

We project this battle to be one of the great ones in the storied history of the Super Bowl.  If we look back to last week, it was noted how Carolina dominated Arizona who had key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, missing the "Honey Badger" above all and his incredible "field efficiency" numbers which are off the charts.  Also, QB Palmer still showed signs of the finger injury, no matter what the observers thought.  I have been doing this 40-years and see the Cardinals play all the time, Palmer was no exacting and the stats prove that out.  Granted the Panthers defense had a say in his effectiveness, but early touch in the 2nd half could have changed the "MO" in the game...and we liked Carolina.  Here the Panthers are being solid hard everywhere as the line opened truly at -3-1/2 last Sunday, and is now at the aforementioned incredible transition.  Granted Carolina is the superior physical team, and Cam is the stellar player on the field.  However, we can't discount the gritty ride Denver has had all season, and their sensational defense against QB Brady and the Pats.  The Broncos defense during the challenging regular season held the opponents to 18.2 points per game, and 283 an outing.  They held offenses to a third down conversion ratio of 35% which is more effective than Carolina.  This is critical because of Newton's running ability...If Denver is successful in this aspect of the game...they win SU.  As far as the Denver offense and Manning looking at a slower paced approach (TOP) and with a much different game plan than what was shown against NE...This is really the issue as HC Kubiak will not be out coached in this situation. Remember Denver coming into the season had the #10 SOS vs. Carolina who showed #27.  Granted against the spread in the playoffs the Panthers have a winning mark, but this is CLASSIC UNDERDOG set for this handicapper, as the majority of the nation is taking the Denver abilities for granted which accrues point spread value.  The Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. winning units, and no matter, I believe they will cash here in a VERY CLOSE GAME!

4* PITTSBURGH +7-1/2 over Denver @ 4:40 Eastern

A unique situation, Big Ben and company accruing value with the best offensive players out because of injuries.  So, you can rightfully understand why the current line gives all sorts of value.  And, not to discount, the situation accrues a level of relaxation for Denver's defense knowing they will not face Brown or Williams...In turn, the Steelers OC has already stated they will have to be very conservative to have a chance Sunday?  I have a gold farm under my house, would you buy that?  You can clearly understand the dog in the series is 6-2 ATS.  In addition, the last time these two met in a playoff game, the STEELERS were a -7-1/2 favorite at Denver.  Now, the number is reversed...VALUE!

4* ARIZONA -7. not higher over Green Bay

Hate going against the stat guys in the office, but the fundamental differences between these two are too much for me to pass up.  First, HC Arians approach to big games is effective and precise. He is a much under rated head master.  Granted the Cards have injuries, but the Packers will fear the force at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  When we chase big playoff games it means so much to have a running game and a defense...DITTO ARIZONA.  Don't be fooled by the easy win last week in Washington by the Pack. yes we were on the right side.  Still, different set of issues facing Green Bay, being on the road for the second straight week. while the Cards healed their bodies and watched their Washington encounter.  The home unit has covered 5-of-6 in the series, while the Cards show an AMAZING 27-12 ATS off a loss by 20+ (Seattle).  If you don't think the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Arizona here, my, my...CARDINALS!

5* NEW ENGLAND -5, not higher…(302) over Kansas City @ 4:35 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Granted the current win streak of 11 games by the Chiefs is a number viewed with great respect.  And, most will consider Kansas City’s 3-1 ATS mark at New England as a go with sign for the Chiefs.  However, overall the Patriots come 12-3-2 ATS home vs. winning road units L17 times out. The crowd favorite KC a horrid 1-6 ATS in NFL playoff games last seven.  New England is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS L10 playoff games, at home 4-3 ATS in the post season since 2011.  In addition, this is a monster REVENGE game for the Pats and coach Bill Belichick after NE was smashed in KC (2014) 41-14. The Chiefs went out to a 27-0 lead, augmented by 8 sacks of All-Pro quarterback Tom Brady. Also, the last game played in NE was in 2011...34-3 for the Patriots.  During the 2015 regular season KC ranked #27 in total offense just 331+ yards per game, and #26 in total defense allowing just 339 yards a game.  NE rated #6 with 374 yards per game on offense, defensively #24 with 339 yards allowed per outing.  Recall last week vs. Houston the Chiefs capitalized on a QB with virtually few viable scoring drives in that 30-0 loss.  This time around QB Brady and the Patriots have accrued some rest time to heal the numerous injuries sustained during the regular season.  Comparable offensive productivity night and day between Houston and the Patriots.  Finally, Chiefs OL has allowed 46 sacks in 2015, so look for the NE defense to challenge early in passing downs! New England.

5* GREEN BAY over Washington

NFL KEY BEST BET ANGLE

BDS

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10* Minnesota+ (104) over Seattle @ 1:05 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

Rarely do we go against the Seahawks, but I believe we have a special situation Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.  To add a little “outside edge” to the battle, the weather projection is estimated to be around zero degrees.  Already, I am thinking about former legendary HC Bud Grant’s approach to this type scenario, but then again the Vikings have that already with their running game and the ability to play one down at a time.  Surely, we are aware of the 38-7 beating the Seahawks put on the Vikings in December on this same field…So, we have same season REVENGE, on the same field in less than perfect weather conditions.  Remember Seattle jumped out early in that encounter and stifled the Vikings run game, which led to throwing the ball in obvious down and distance situations.  This gave the #1 rushing defense even more of situational edge.  Seattle (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) is on a solid 6-1 SU run coming in with QB Wilson (24/1) in solid form.  In that run the Seahawks out pointed the opposition 224-98.  They have been playing on a high for sure.  RB Lynch (abdominal) will be starting for the first time since November.  Minnesota (11-5, 13-3 ATS) has had some inconsistency but, they were hurt with RB Peterson’s injury.  He is expected to be 100%.  The Vikings (144.9) start with the #4 running game in the NFL.  Defensively, they have held opponents to 18.9 points per game, and are one of the better run defenses in the NFL.  When you consider they are at home Sunday, the unit should be more than ready to cut off the big plays by QB Wilson.  Last year in the NFL playoffs, the underdog went 6-4 ATS.  Granted Seattle comes 5-2 ATS in the month of January, but Minny has been money in the bank at home 10-3 ATS.  And, at home they show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS versus winning road units.  With REVENGE, the weather, home field and the EMOTIONAL EDGE…Take the points!

4* KC -3, not higher over Houston

NFL POWER ANGLE

BDS

4* SEATTLE+ over Arizona

NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* BUFFALO +3, nothing lower over New York

NFL SUPER CONTEST TOP PLAY...8-2 L2 WEEKS

BDS...HAPPY NEW YEAR!

10* Ole Miss -7, not higher over Oklahoma State

Don't mean to raddle anyone, but this will be a close call from the spread standpoint. The Pokes are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 bowl games dating back to 2010 all under the leadership of HC Mike Gundy.  As a 6-1/2 underdog they defeated Washington last year SU 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl..So, this is a step-up in class via the Sugar Bowl which is all SEC country.  Ole Miss recent taste of bowl action in the last three years..2-1 SU/ATS.  The 42-3 loss to TCU in Peach Bowl has the Hugh Freeze group sky high!  Only negative is their very best defensive player is out of the game as you know per the news releases recently.  The Rebs started strong 4-0 SU beating Alabama, but then lost on the road at Florida, Memphis(?), and Arkansas...Easily, the unit has an issue with focus. But, that will NOT be the case today knowing the opposing talent, the conference and the chance to pick up a DD win (9-3) season is a glaring issue.  The Rebs finished nicely beating and covering vs. LSU and Mississippi State...two hated rivals.  SEC BOWL FAVS show 4-0 ATS going into Saturday.  Oklahoma State (10-2) only lost two games, both at the end of the season to Baylor and Oklahoma.  The Pokes lead with their passing game QB Rudolph as the unit ended #10 in the NCAA throwing the pigskin.  The schools last played in 2010...Ole Miss 21-10.  For the Rebs to cover they will need their rushing attack to control the tempo and field position, and of course, the legs of QB Kelly will be needed. OKS is 2-7 ATS off a SU loss, 4-10 ATS after surrendering 450+ yards and 3-7 ATS off ATS loss.  The Rebs are 1-5 ATS off a SU win, but you can discount that item, considering the TCU debacle last season.  Ole Miss comes in 24-8 ATS non-conference, 3-0-1 ATS (January), 6-1-1 ATS at neutral sites and 4-1 ATS in BOWL games.  This should be a high scoring, as I remember the opening total was 67.  In closing, history has shown that teams relate more closely to current reality and for the Pokes losing BB conference game...ouch!  So, we are riding OLE MISS!

5* NORTHWESTERN +9 over Tennessee

The 'Cats come out of the surprising Big-10 with a 10-2 record, and the catalyst could have been the 40-10 loss to Iowa early.  Coach Fitz has done a great job, and stands to be the first coach in NW history to win 11 games.  The key for the Wildcats is their stingy defense, and with Vols inconsistent offense, I believe we have a great shot of not only covering but winning SU.  This situation means more to NW, so they will have the EMOTIONAL EDGE.  Also, UT is 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20 plus.  Finally, the 'Cats show 4-1 ATS in bowl games...NORTHWESTERN.

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(241)  5* Air Force+ (8-5) over California (7-5) @ 2:00 Eastern

Armed Forces Bowl…BDS

Here we go, might type of football game a running unit (Air Force) vs. a passing attack (California).  Air Force came into the season with some high hopes, but key injuries (Romine) took their toll.  The Falcons went 3-3 SU in their early going, while the Golden Bears won their first 5 games.  After Air Force went on a nice winning streak in the MWC, but dropped a heart breaker in the championship game to San Diego State.  California after that perfect run fell off losing 4 straight games.  So, we find both units here in the Military Bowl.   Looking back, California destroyed San Diego State in September, but the Aztecs were somewhat flat after blowing out San Diego University.  Cal leads the all-time series 6-2 SU with Air Force 1-3 SU in the Military Bowl.  To win SU the Falcons will need to control the football throughout as the Golden Bears are 7-0 ATS when scoring 30 plus a game.  Still, the Cal defense is very forgiving as they given up at least 24 points a game in the majority (all but 2) games this season.  Cal comes 4-14 ATS on grass, the Falcons 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.  Finally, the Golden Bears a PERFECT 0-5 ATS vs. winning football teams…TAKE THE POINTS!

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5* Atlanta (110) +7 or +6-1/2 over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

Prefer everyone buying ½ point!  Recently, we have been going against the Panthers looking for their time to drop anchor and pick their tag of “normalcy” and a SU loss…no dice!  Carolina continues to cash SU wins, but the Giants did not give up last week, thankfully.   Here the task gets a little more difficult against a NFC South opponent in Atlanta (7-7) who is going nowhere, so this is there SUPER BOWL!  Clear talent differential for sure, but the running game for the Panthers #3 overshadows the #17 unit for Atlanta.  So, if the Falcons can find their short passing game and control a little better at the line of scrimmage, as they did last week vs. JAX they may win this SU.  After all, we know, even “SUPERMAN” is human!  Also, there is a bit of revenge, double carded if you will with Carolina blasting the home unit 72-3 in the last two encounters.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS week #16, with the home team 6-1 ATS in the series.  Plus, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing last time out…ATLANTA!

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Play on:  5* (103) Washington +3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Okay, the Redskins are a poor road unit, have not played well on the road this season.  However, they have won back-to-back games late in the season and face their most challenging event thus far off a nice roll.  Philly is damaged physically coming in with a weak an injured secondary, let alone a “chasing” LB unit that can’t assimilate a big play when needed. Oh, thin on the DL too. Another injury inside their defensive starter set would cripple their current rotation.  Offensively, QB Bradford is playing well, but trying to overcome a “score” deficit tonight most lightly will change Chip’s game planning!  The only way the Eagles win this, is if they jump up early and control the game?  Series:  Underdog 4-1 ATS, ‘Skins 6-of-8 in Philadelphia.  Also, historically when an Eagles football team is fading at the end of season and coming off a DD loss at home…0-8 ATS. Realize Washington brings conflicting ATS numbers, but “mindset” here all WASHINGTON!

5* GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7-1/2 over Bowling Green

Yesterday we split out, because of the Temple debacle. However, we are using just one side in the Wednesday game plan for the bowl card.  Actually, I'm ticketing the school who I believe has the most dangerous  and under valued offense on the playing field in either bowl game today.  Take Georgia Southern to trade points with Bowling Green in a real nail bitter, and we thank the lines makers for the complimentary +7-1/2 to boot!  Good Luck!

4* Akron +7-1/2 over Utah State

Taking the value here with the number and the running game of the Zips.  Utah State seemingly in a home game scenario finished the season in a negative set, because thought after early success they could win their conference, not so!  Critical here for the traveling unit is their mindset, mindset and coach Holtz.  Akron finished 4-0 SU/ATS running for 229 yards in their last game vs. Kent. Granted UTS is a more difficult class of defense and will show up today, but they much mental to overcome based on recent results.  UTS is 3-7 ATS in non-conference game, while the Zips are 5-0 ATS L5 after holding an offense to under 100 yards on the ground...WIRE JOB!

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4* Minnesota (306) over Chicago @ 1:00 Eastern

The Vikings are just 2-4 ATS since 2009 when laying singles in this highly contested division long-time rivalry.  In November Minnesota (-1-1/2) did win out 23-20 at Chicago.  The Bears were limited to just 305 yards in total offense. Overall, Chicago defense allows 5.5 yards per play, 62% completion effectiveness.  So, the visitor will have their hands full again as they face a unit looking to make the playoffs, while playing 3-of-4 really tough games vs. Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona.  Coming in Minnesota is 10-3 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, 9-0 ATS off a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in December.  Remember the Vikings average 4.6 yards per game rushing which should be the answer to their ball control keys this afternoon.  Chicago has a sure fire malady in PK Robbie Gould who again last week vs. Washington cost them dearly.  Plus the offense has suffered this season 3rd down…42%.  Chicago being 5-0 ATS as roadies does not give an automatic, especially considering 6-13 ATS record inside the division.

5* NY Giants+ over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Our bowl game of the week PUSHED here because of the timing of the line insert, but a national level the LOBOS covered based on the Saturday line in most stores.  This situation is real special because I have an old friend that's attending looking for the upset, so with that in mind...The Giants have shot themselves in the foot this season despite centered in the NFC East.  Winning last week over Miami stirred some hope in the Big Apple, but the Giants running game needs some stretch to win SU here.  Carolina is undefeated, 10-3 ATS, 5-1 ATS and looks dominating doing so!  QB Newton is every bit the stellar star we thought when he was a youngster at Auburn. He hates to lose and will take over the game when needed.  Still, over the last ten years these New Yorkers are 4-2 SU & ATS vs. the Panthers...the favorite in the series is 3-3 ATS since 2006.  Also, changing roles from one year to the next accrues value this time to New York.  Carolina played 9 games last season on the road...they were the UNDERDOG IN ALL GAMES!  In 2015 with the change road SOS schedule they have given -3, -3, -3-1/2, -1 and -5-1/2...ALL AGAINST LOSING TEAMS...Carolina lost ATS last time out on the highway versus New Orleans with the heaviest price of -5-1/2.  We must remember the lines makers are human also, and they find difficult to change character until there is a definitive long-term picture with corresponding results.  Note, here the line is only -4?  Carolina is 7-1 ATS vs. NFC, NYG 6-2 in December...more importantly playing in New York going back decades has always been a difficult venue for winning marque teams...There is no doubt Carolina has MOTO pass to a PERFECT season, but the immense pressure of the construct will show and give Eli and company a great chance to win the WHOLE GAME...Good Luck!

FREE TOTAL:  Carolina/NYG OVER 

10* Georgia State+ over San Jose State @ 7:00 Eastern

CURE BOWL...BDS

The first ever Cure Bowl has San Jose State (5-7) traveling a great distance.  SJU did defeat NMU last time out, but vs. other FBS units...a horrid 9-28 SU in the past.  GSU a starter program going back to 2010 finished the season on a 4-0 SU run.  And, they were very kind to their backers going 8-3-1 ATS.  Fundamentally, they average 6.3 yards per play.  Granted the Spartans come out of the MWC a more highly rated conference, but they did not fair well this season and seem to give up at the end of games...I doubt very much they are interested going to Florida around the holidays, despite the warm weather.  The EMOTIONAL EDGE here is all GEORGIA STATE...Look for an outright upset!

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3* Utah (204) over BYU @ 3:30

Normally, would not go after this type situation considering the overall coaching exodus at BYU with legendary Mendenhall and the OC going to Virginia…What does this tell the recruits for the Cougars?  Utah has not played well down the stretch losing some really tough games, being hurt by passing games (#96th YA) with tall and talented receivers just check out the numbers from the UCLA, USC and Arizona games.  The Utes too, like the Cougars have been hurt by injuries, however, each show 9-3 SU BYU with the more productive 8-4 ATS mark coming into the “Unholy War Bowl.”  The last meeting between these two was in 2013…@ Utah, Utes 20-13 winners…Utah has won 5-of-6 SU in the series.  Overall the series has been closely contested with 14 of the last 17 games decided by less than a touchdown.  This season when you check out PF/PA…very similar… The mental here because of the coaching changes for BYU favors the Utes…and SOS, FPI too…UTAH by 4.

5* New Mexico + (202) over Arzona @ 2:00 Eastern

College Bowl Game of the Week...Saturday

We clearly had a difficult choice between the Lobos and one other squad as our game of the week, however, I am sticking with the aforementioned considering they are at home will not give up even if behind in the 4th quarter.  As we enter another wacky bowl season, the public should be highly aware of the tendency to leap in the early sets to find themselves only behind when the more quality games come about.   Here the line came -11-/-1/2 or -11 to start, pending your outlet now down to -9 or -8 (Thursday) in most stores on the Strip.  Arizona (6-6) despite their 1-4 finish are the more talented unit and will have QB Solomon ready to start.  However, AU will be missing 4 starters and have injuries in depth positions coming into action.  On the other hand, NMU playing out of the MWC is lacking in SOS, has not played well historically vs. the PAC-12 (0-6) and have issues with special team units.  Granted this is much to swallow as a 5* selection, but NMU has the definitive EMOTIONAL EDGE considering how they played physically and mentally at the end of the season.  We especially, consider their ability to run the football and control the clock here. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in post season bowls, but 3-1 ATS recently laying singles.  Still, NMU will not give up and play this to the wire...TAKE THE POINTS!

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10* Pittsburgh +3 (105), nothing less….over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

Spent many years doing weekend radio in the “Steel City” accruing friends and contacts!  All I can tell you is, they are buzzing about Big Ben and the Steelers.  Granted it plays right into the Las Vegas line movement that has the number down to +2-1/2 at the Westgate on the Strip.  We specified you must have +3 to qualify this situation as a GOY!  Granted the Bengals have had a solid season but, the last two weeks Pittsburgh is playing Super Bowl caliber football.  The Bengals show 10-2 SU in the division, the Steelers suffering without Big Ben 7-5 SU.  Visiting Pittsburgh is not awed by the site or Cincinnati winning and covering the last three in the series, covering 4-of-5 on the road.  In addition, historically Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been money in the bank as a road underdog against a unit off a SU/ATS win.  Last week the Bengals chewed up the Browns 37-3, so we expect somewhat of a slow start for Cincy here in the first quarter…Remember Pittsburgh leads the series 55-35.  Critical is the Steelers secondary which has been hurt by the big play this season, so look for these two, despite weather, to trade points all day….We close with the Bengals 1-7 ATS in week #14, with Pittsburgh 13-2-1 ATS in Cincinnati…Now you can understand the heavy money overload the last two days…Good Luck, and thank you!

5* Army+ over Navy

It's not often that I go against Navy, but this is is a great situation.  Just based on talent and offensive productivity it would be easy to pencil in the Middies.  Granted Army is in a long series losing streak, but in 3-of-4 the have been highy competitive losing by 7, 4 and 6.  Also, the current Navy players are aware of coaching changes, and have a bowl celebration locked up!  THIS IS THE BOWL GAME FOR  ARMY...The Cadets have cashed 3/4 in the series, and looking back face their highest priced ticket since 2007...+19-1/2...TAKE!

4* NTU -2 over ULM @ 3:30 Eastern

If the Miners circumvent their (-9.4) tendency to turnover the football they can take advantage of the ULM major losses on offense (Jones and Leftwich) to secure a SU and ATS victory.  Further, the Green are a solid 13-3 ATS at home versus a school with a losing road record, while the visiting Miners come in 1-10 ATS on turf.  Good Luck.

5* CAL+ (385) over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern Saturday
Interesting, the Cardinal had run an 8-0 record before falling to Oregon last week on this same field.  QB Hogan fumbled twice in the 4th quarter crushing Stanford's hopes of ever sliding into the College Playoffs.  Do you think the Cardinal maybe a little down in the first-half, at least?   Okay, Stanford (8-2) has won 5 straight in the series, and shows 4-1 ATS L5 meetings.  We add Cal coach Dykes is 0-11 SU vs. Stanford, USC, UCLA and Oregon. He can't beat the Big Boys!  Stanford has the edge on defense close to 7 points per game better, while the units have similar scoring numbers.  Stanford has AA RB McCaffrey the go to guy when the game is on the line.  No matter what the stats say, the Bears will rely on QB Goff to throw the ball down the field.  He crippled Cal last year in their 38-17 loss to Stanford with 2 INTs.  But, there is a huge sticking point for the Cardinal, they have COLLEGE PLAYOFF BOUND Notre Dame next....It's a revenge game for the STANFORD!  Over the last 10 years before playing ND, the Cardinal is 3-7 ATS.  And, remember Cal is 7-of-10 ATS on the road.

Play on: 10* Virginia Tech+ over UNC

ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Before the public chews up Beamer Ball value early, I'll step out calling for the outright upset despite the Tar Heels being the more talented unit overall.  UNC on a 9-0 perfect run 9-1 this season 6-0 in conference, while the Hokies show 5-5 overall, 3-3 in conference, winners of BB games, the last our ACC GOY on Thursday.  Where the Heels made money this season is in their + turnover ratio, however, the EMOTIONAL EDGE this time is all Hokies as they play at home. In 8-of-10 games in the series the Hokies have been the chalk, now their +6-1/2 which is a clear indicator of a talent edge, but it appears the numbers is TOO HIGH!  Virginia Tech has covered back-to-back games in the series, and with such a drastic line adjustment from the last two season...TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Virginia Tech + over Georgia Tech @ 7:30 Eastern

One it comes to big games during the college football season, I use certain coaches as a starting point in the subject game analysis. Here we have suffering Georgia Tech losers of the last 6/7 on the schedule looking to take out a hated rival at home in VPI.  Unfortunately, for their backers the Vegas Strip has the Engineers as a -3 or -3-1/2 point chalk.  No matter, when I’ve used Beamer Ball in the past, 100% of the time it’s when they are accruing points.  The key here again for Beamer is the VTech defense which is holding units under 25 ppg. If they can limit the GTech vaunted Triple Option to around 170-180 yards on the ground, they win this SU.  Remember too, this is coach Beamer’s last go around vs. Georgia Tech with this retirement coming at the end of the season. Also, last season Georgia Tech won in a nail bitter 27-24, but the series has given rise to opponent wins alternating year-to-year dating back to 2006.  Technicals have the series road unit 5-0 ATS, the underdog 8-1 ATS…BEAMER!

(474) 10* San Diego -4, not higher...over Chicago

The Chargers return home after a 3-point road loss to the Baltimore Ravens back on November 1st.  The last time they played on Monday Night was back on October 12th here, losing 24-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Overall HC Mike McCoy’s unit shows up 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS.  The Chicago Bears travel to the west coast after losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings on November 1st.  They are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS this season.  They have recent losing numbers ATS in the month of November, and the Vikings loss should bring a letdown despite the MN lights and the travel.  Plus, defensively they are allowing almost 29 points per game.  Chicago shows 8-16 ATS as an underdog and 9-14-1 ATS in non-division games.  This is the first Monday edition for the Bears in 2015.  During the last ten years the series is 1-1 SU & ATS.  San Diego has dropped four straight to Baltimore, Oakland, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, so they will be sky high for a chance to break their deficit run and show 5-0 SU vs. the NFC and 3-1 ATS at home on MNF.  Granted WR Allen is out and the OL is being restructured, but this will only heighten the determination of QB Rivers who has helped pull the Chargers together in past losing runs.  Without RB Forte in the game, the Bears running attack has suffered….Look for a high scoring game San Diego 37-29.

3* Pittsburgh -5-1/2 over Oakland

Tried to play this using the money line on this site, but could not acquire same. This is the reason for the moderate valuation of the Steelers chances of covering the subject number vs. traveling Oakland. The Raiders smashed the Jets last week as I and all the system players hit the highway.  NY was just not ready for the ball position of Oakland!  Here the situation is reversed as now the under valued Raiders travel east to facing a unit that is 4-4 SU in a division chasing the 8-0 Bengals. To say this is a 'MUST WIN' for Pittsburgh is an under statement!  Last time out Big Ben and company dropped a horrid 16-10 encounter to...CINCY.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS after Cincinnati and 4-1 ATS vs. West coast unit at home during the regular season. The Raiders come in 4-12-1 ATS off a SU win.  With Pittsburgh at home and in rebound mode, we will back the STEEL CITY GANG!

10* MINNESOTA -1 over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL TOP PLAY SUNDAY...BDS

Don't forget our top play Monday Night in the NFL. We are hitting 64% in the league.  Today the Rams travel to Minny in a "must win" situation as they show two games behind Arizona in the division. The Vikings 5-2 SU are just one game behind the Packers.  Again last week the Vikings did the job running the football for 147 yards on the road vs. Chicago. Knowing HC Fisher of the Rams quite well, look for the defense to stack the box tyring stop that edge.  This will allow QB Bridgewater more time and openings for the passing game...Offensively, the Rams can never win big games consistently unitl QB Foles starts hitting over 200 passing taking pressure off the running game.  STL won 27-6 last week over disoriented SF, and the public has bought in buying us real value that is on a 5-0 SU perfect run at home, 6-0 ATS in the same building. Until Foles proves us wrong...MINNESOTA!

(359) 5* PENN STATE +3 over Northwestern @ 12:00 Eastern

After watching the Nits (7-2) demolished the Illini last week, I am still in shock.  No, there is no over estimation inside this game analysis as we believe Penn State has taken a huge step forward in their season.  Now they must travel to Evanston to face the ‘Cats (6-2) who were much heralded earlier this season.  We know Northwestern is coming off a bye week (0-4 ATS) which helps their cause physically, but Penn State has solid SU history versus the Wildcats over the last ten years going 6-1 SU and 3-0 SU on the road. Last year Northwestern won 29-6 at Penn State.  The key was shutting down the running game…50 yards on the day.  Here the Lions will need to pressure young ‘Cats QB Thorson who has demonstrated major issues with accuracy…so, if the Nits “D” wins out on 3rd down, they cash a SU and ATS ticket.  Note, buy 1/2 point to secure the deal, no matter Penn State should win SU.