Taking the CHIEFS here. We get KC with a pair of nice wins under their belts, plus off their bye week in a big revenger. Had these guys when they blew leads all night long in that epic collapse. 2 TDs in 36 seconds! Are you kidding me? Manning is looking less than mortal. 9 TDs and 13 INTs on the year, Alex Smith with 9TDs and 3INTs. I know Denver defense is the real deal. But the offense is sluggish. I will take points with Andy Reid off a bye week 100% of the time as he is 17-3 SU with rest. 8* Sure Shot KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 

Taking the PACKERS here. I have lost with these the last 2 weeks. From 7-0 to 7-2. Make no mistake, Aaron Rodgers is going to have a field day vs the Lions defense here. After being humiliated on Sunday night, they go face the Panthers and again get abused before a late rally ends on a rare Rodgers INT. GB has won 24 straight vs the Lions at home. Detroit is off a bye week where they made some changes. But the coach is still there, so I don't see the 'rally 'round the new guy' happening here. Detroit has a lame duck coach coaching a defense allowing 30ppg and 37 last 4. A perfect remedy after 2 of the toughest defenses in the league. GB 17-2 ATS off b2b roadies.  Packers with division leader Minnesota on deck, but after 2 straight losses, there is no look-ahead spot allowed. 10* Money Bomb GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking TENNESSEE here. Are you kidding me with this line? I see anywhere from 4.5 up to 6 in some spots. When things look to good to be true, they probably are. Undefeated and coming off a huge win over GB, of which, they had to hold on after a big win. Just like they had to do on Monday night, maybe the Panthers hitting the road are in a flat-spot. Those 2 wins on the heels of beating Philly and a win at Seattle. Now a clear step-down in class vs a Titans team that is 2-16 SU last 18 games. 5* Best Bet TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking SOUTH FLORIDA here. Cashed a miracle win with Temple as a Free Play Friday night. Are you kidding me? 45-40 then a 3rd down long TD, a 2pt conversion and a INT for 7 for a 20pt win. SMU backers had to have sharp objects and shoe laces removed from their homes. That being said, I see a let-down here. First off. They have Memphis on deck. A much bigger name for Temple to focus on. Second. Bulls have some talent and are vastly better defensively than the Mustangs. Third road game in 4 weeks for the Owls which again, takes some pop out of your step. 8* Sure Shot SOUTH FLORIDA 

Taking SOUTHERN MISS here. These guys are quietly 7-2 ATS for us on the year. They have a done a great job improving both sides off the ball statistically from last year. We are nice rested off our bye week. The Rice defense was blitzed by Western Kentucky 49-10 and La Tech 42-17. This Eagles team is just as good or better. Owls can't force TOs, just 2 INTs on the year, while allowing 26 TD passes. Rice was a 8.5 road fave last year and dispatched Southern Miss 41-23. A little revenge served this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb SOUTHERN MISS 

5* Best Bet NORTH CAROLINA

Taking the EAGLES here. We had the 'Boys in Philly, but this is clearly a different team. I did cash with Dallas last week with the points, but this offense is clearly struggling. It is common knowledge that after facing Seattle, teams have problem covering. That is compounded by the fact the Eagles are off a bye-week and have revenge from an earlier loss, where Philly looked helpless. 8* Sure Shot PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Taking the BRONCOS here. All about defense here. Yes, Indy canned their OC and looked super in the 4th quarter vs the Panthers. I'm not buying. Do we not remember these guys were down 21-0 to the Saints here before they mustered any offense. This team has major problems. Luck is barely a .500 quarterback vs anyone but the putrid AFC South. Now he gets the best defense with a QB who owned this town coming to play. I am not a fan of laying many points with road faves. Especially a team off a near perfect win last week. But I think Luck is banged up. And this Denver D will be on him. I have lost money backing Indy. I have lost money fading Indy. Probably the one team that has hurt me the most this year. That being said, I think the Broncos are the real deal and with this defense should muster a 10pt win for us. 5* BEST BET  Denver Broncos

Taking the STEELERS here. We faded both of these teams last week with mixed results (Cincy or Top 10*). Now, we have the Raiders traveling east for an early game. Always difficult. The talk is about how good Oakland is. Well, as I said. I had the Jets. And they were moving pretty good with Fitzy in their before he got hurt on that first drive. If he doesn't go down, who knows what happens. That being said, slowing down Geno is a bit different than Big Ben. He has a game under his belt. He has a pair of WRs that will cause problems. The run game is solid even with Bell out. Pitt will be angry after letting one slip away last week. Prefect storm brewing here. 10* Money-Bomb PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

Taking LSU here. Ugh. I have to tell ya. Part of me wants to grab 'Bama. Saban is a great coach. Both teams in off byes. Both teams probably the best top to bottom squads in the country. Two things lean me towards the LSU here. 1. I like their QB. The kid makes plays and I think has better weapons. And 2, what I think is the most important here. Their DC was on Alabama's staff last year. I am sure he might have some piece of insight that will help. Revenge from last years battle. 5* Best Bet LSU

Taking MICHIGAN STATE here. Looks a little too easy, but I'll bite. Sparty just wins and Nebraska, well they are finding new ways to lose. It started with hail-mary losses and has moved to losing to Purdue allowing 55 points! Purdue who is now 2-18 SU vs Big 10 teams under their HC. I thought Riley would have problems and he clearly has here in year 1. Spartans have won 21 of their last 22 B10 games, 17 by double digits. Michigan State +10 in TOs, Nebraska -8. Sparty took care of business after their epic game vs Michigan, no let-down. Now with a week off , they have plenty of prep time to pick apart this terrible Cornhusker defense. 8* Sure Shot MICHIGAN STATE 

Taking MID TEN ST here. Sometimes I look at a line and just say, no way. MDTNST at 3-5 favored, bet up no less to -3 vs 8-1 Marshall. The Herd, who is 21-2 SU last 23. The Herd, who is a conference road dog for the 3rd time, in 4 Years! So yes, I am very interested in the Blue Raiders here. We have extra rest, while Marshall is playing their 10th straight game. 10* Money Bomb MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 

Taking MISSISSIPPI STATE here. I really think this line should be higher. Maybe it is the sucker play of the day. Well, call me a sucker. I know State has Alabama up next. But we aren't laying a huge number here. MizzU can play some defense giving up less than 13ppg, but the Bulldogs have put up 45,45 and 42 their last 3 games. Both teams off last week. Missouri has had trouble scoring all year so I don't think they magically turn into some offensive machine. Again, with 'Bama looming we can't really shoot the moon in this spot, but I think we still have enough value to play. 5* Best Bet MISSISSIPPI STATE 

Going UNDER the total here. I just can't see a ton of points being scored here. Short week. Johnny Football could be starting. McCown banged up. I look for a little revenge here with Cincy. They lost to the Browns here nearly a year to the day 24-3. Coming off a tough game vs the Steelers, I think Cincy has trouble starting here. Browns defense choked away a 20-7 lead last week. They will tighten things up. Both games went under last year. I think we get another game that nears 40. 5* Total Money UNDER Browns/Bengals 

Taking the PACKERS here. Both teams off their bye-weeks. Broncos bring the better defense for sure. But I can't bet against Rodgers here. He is clearly head and shoulders better than Manning right now. I know he is rested. He has some weapons to throw to for sure. But where is the run game to get the pressure off the old man? There isn't any. Packers have the superior offensive personnel and a system that puts points on the board at times with ease. Packers 10-2 SU off bye under McCarthy and 10-1 ATS last 11 with rest. For Denver to win, I would need to see them stopping Rodgers all night. I have no scenario where that happens enough to not get us a cover. 5* Best Bet GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking the BENGALS here. It would be easy to say hey, Steelers have Big Ben back, they are home, they knock off the undefeated Bengals. But is it that simple? Cincy off their bye-week. Big Ben, if he plays, might be a bit rusty to start. Will he remain healthy behind an OL missing it's 2 best line-men? I know they have some weapons back. But Andy Dalton has a few pretty good weapons himself. Bernard and Hill are a nice duo in the backfield. And Green, Jones, Sanu and Eifert can hang with any WR/TE group I've seen. Plus, a defense that has already sacked opposing QBs 17 times in 6 games. And we have triple revenge working in our favor. 10* Money Bomb CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the BEARS here. I like this Minny team. I said in my NFL Preview podcast that these guys have a solid defense, and a great HC, and if the offense came together, they could be special. Well, they got their first division road win last week since 2012 and now are in back to back divisional roadies against a Bears team off a bye. Minny has lost 7 straight to the Bears and are 1-6 ATS last 7 in Chicago. Bears have a solid defense under the new regime. Minny is ranked 30th in total offense. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS

Taking NC STATE here. Tough spot for Clemson. They rolled last week beating the Hurricanes 58-0. They have Florida State on deck. How focused, or really, how much are they really prepping here? They won't be throwing any new wrinkles out for sure with the Seminoles on deck. Nice home dog role for State. They are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs Tigers. 10* Money Bomb NC STATE

5* Best Bet SAN DIEGO STATE

8* Sure Shot TEXAS TECH

5* Best Bet MISSISSIPPI

Gentleman. Sorry not any write ups the last few days. 

If you listened to my podcast this week, you know that I have been battling a bad flu bug or something the last couple weeks. Writing and staring at the screen just gives me a pounding head ache that knocks me out.

I do have NFL write ups. 

Let's keep up our nice run that has us at the top of the long-term leader-boards - Sean

Taking the RAMS here. Love this spot for STL. Love, love, love it. Rested. At home. Against the Browns, who, in cased you missed just lost a heart-breaker at home in OT to the Broncos. That on the heels of, winning a nail-biter on the road in OT against the Ravens. While recovering from a stinging 3pt loss on the road in San Diego on a FG as time expired. That is a bruising, 3 games stretch for most franchises. But this is the Browns. Let's give them a ton of credit for battling after each of those games. I can't see much in the tank here against the Rams. A rested bunch to boot. Now, the Rams as faves are in uncharted waters. In fact, when the Browns were favored over the Raiders we promptly cashed with visiting Oakland. But this is a totally different spot for both teams. The Rams defense didn't do terrible against better offenses. The get after the QB with 19 sacks, 2nd most in NFC, while Cleveland has been sacked the 2nd most (22) in the AFC. Plus, Gurley seems to have injected life in the offense which, granted hasn't put many points on the board. I just can't get past this situation though. Rams off their bye. Browns off another, close, physical game. Lay it. 10* Money Bomb STL RAMS 

Taking TAMPA here. Who are the Redskins to be laying points to anyone? They were just manhandled on the road. They have key injuries up and down their roster. Tampa in off their bye week. I know Washington has a couple nice games under their belts and you are thinking, this is Tampa, lay it. Well Cousins has more INTs than Winston. I actually like TB WRs Evans and Jackson. I thought the veteran and young wide-out, plus a solid rush attack with Martin would actually help Winston out in his rookie year. Hopefully, my continued faith in Lovie Smith will eventually get us some money! 5* Best Bet TB BUCCANEERS

Taking the COLTS here. I had NE -7.5 last week before the line steamed to 10. Now at 10, Indy might have been worth a look. Fact is, they lost by 7. What I saw was an improved Luck. I also cashed with the Saints on Thursday as an easy home dog winner over Atlanta. Now, I love my extra rest, especially in NFL. That being said, these aren't the same old Saints, and this is on the road. Indy has taken care of business at home. I expect it to continue. Truth be told, they don't run the most bizarre trick play in my memory, and maybe we are taking Saints since Colts in a let-down spot after upsetting the Patriots. But that didn't happen. So we are left with Luck and his oldies, Gore and Johnson, and some youngens, Moncrief and Hilton to expose a poor New Orleans defense. 8* Sure Shot INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

5* Best Bet OLE MISS 

10* Money Bomb VANDERBILT

Taking the EAGLES here. Is Shane Vereen going to be the best offensive player on the field Monday night? What about Sproles? Eli is better than Bradford that is not even debatable. But who is he throwing to? Is Odell dancing hammy feeling ok? What about Randles? Whatever happened to Victor Cruz, Mr Chunky Soup a couple years ago, the Salsa King? Maybe Chip Kelly has DeMarco Murray unleashed for 27 carries and a 150 yards. Does Sproles return a punt to the house? Or a couple deep into NYG territory? Eagles have covered 3 of the last 4 in the series. 5* Best Bet PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Last week we cashed NE as our Top 10* and will come right back to them here. Are you kidding me? 7.5.. I would lay 17.5. I said last week, and I will say it again. Brady is out to humiliate teams. Now he gets to tee-off on a leaky Colts defense (out-gained in every game) that may or may not have a less than 100% Luck at QB. Who, wasn't that good vs Bills or Jets when he was 'healthy.' So Brady, Mr Deflategate gets to face the team that started the whole sha-bang! Sign me up. Last time this team was accused, SpyGate, they rolled to a 17-0 regular season. Brady is about restoring his legacy and image. So running it up when he knows that everyone is watching is great medicine for his ego. Not that I like doing this but. Pats 51-17 over Jags.. Colts 16-13... 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the DOLPHINS here. Will gladly grab Miami and any points here. They win this one outright. This is one of  my Super Contest selection. Miami was floundering under Philbin and as I predicted, canned him after their London loss. Now with a bye week and a new man in charge, I look for a swift kick in the ass exactly what the doctor ordered for this struggling team. New coach, new attitude. The players will be looking to prove themselves. And they face a rookie QB. They face a HC, in Whisenhunt who is 4-28 SU last 32 games. 4 Wins 28 LOSSES!! Miami is the more talented team. Now we just need them to act like it. Which, I believe they will in resounding fashion here at 1pm. 8* Sure Shot MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking MICHIGAN here. We had these guys as a Best Bet last week and they promptly cashed our ticket. So here we are again. The Wolverines giving more than a TD to a team ranked higher than them. LY Michigan State was a 17pt favorite! Sparty is undefeated, but hasn't looked impressive in any game. Have they been saving their best and key breakout moments for this game? Doubt it. Maybe the loss of their DC hurts more than it should. Sparty has won 11 straight Big 10 roadies. They were ranked #2 in pre-season AP poll. They were #4 before dropping to #7, with a win! Harbaugh has this team ready to go. 5* Best Bet MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 

Taking BAYLOR here. 21. I would lay 40 here. I always say that on my Top 10*s, we don't triple our bets, or throw mortgage payments down for extra money. But I do say put an extra unit or 2 down. Baylor in this spot, to me, is as close to a sure thing as possible. Revenge from last year. That game cost them a spot at the Play-Offs. 64ppg, basically 360 yard EACH through the air and on the ground per game! West Va has 9 TOs the last 2 games vs Okie and Okie State. That was after getting fat on bottom feeders Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland. Maybe the last 2 games aren't flukes. They lost some talent from last year. Now you are coming into a hornets nest looking for revenge with 18 straight home wins behind them and the most explosive offense in the game. GL trying to keep Baylor under 40 by the half. 10* Money Bomb BAYLOR BEARS 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. Look. I will be the first to say that laying more than a TD on the road is not a recipe for success in the NFL. But there are times when we must. Patriots off a bye week. Absolutely. Tom Brady looking to humiliate every defense he faces and make the league look silly for 'deflate-gate'. Just another reason to jump on board. No Romo, Dez, or Sean Lee? I might get into 1989 Pro-Line Dr Ron Bash mode and start hyping this play like a used car salesman. Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain are great pieces for the Dallas D to have return. But make no mistake Lee is the heart. But, saying he is injury prone is an understatement. Bottom line here is pretty simple. How is Weeden and the Cowboys slowing down Brady? The simple answer, they aren't. I am not expecting to see 200+ yards of rushing offense from the 'Boys keeping Brady on the sidelines. 10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the CHIEFS here. I'll be the first to say this is a big number for me to be laying. Especially with a KC team that has let me down week after week. Call me crazy, or insane. But I am back on them here. Losers of 3 straight, but those teams are 12-0! Denver, GB and Cincy. Not exactly chopped liver. Bears have some issues without a doubt. They edged Oakland last week, which, even as a home dog, they should have. Raiders haven't been road faves since when, 2002? Marcus Allen and Kenny Stabler! KC has their back to the walls. Alex Smith doesn't throw many INTs, while Cutler seems to enjoy it. The Bears defense doesn't impress, nor scare offenses. This is a clear step-down in class for KC. And you don't say that much at the NFL level. But Chiefs need to really cut loose on someone. They should have beat Denver. They had no problem moving the ball on the road against a very good Bengals defense. I can see their defense knocking Cutler out and getting at least 2-3 turnovers here. A frustrating 3 week stretch should be taken out with a vengeance against the Bears. A double digit win is mandatory here. I think that KC top 30 and I don't see Chicago getting more than 17-20. 10* Money-Bomb KC CHIEFS 

Taking the BENGALS here. Cincy is ready for this game. If there is one game out of division to be 100% ready for, this is it. The rugged, Seahawks, Super Bowl Champs and Runner-Up the last 2 years come to down. Now. We know I like fading this over-rated bunch, especially on the road. We cashed Rams outright over them, then GB pulled away late. Here they find an Andy Dalton who has been nearly perfect. I read somewhere that him getting booed at the All-Star game really motivated him in camp. He is tired of hearing how he can't do it, and is a game manager, blah, blah blah. Well, with Lynch banged up, he easily has the 2 best backs on the field. And the best WRs. This is a dangerous Bengals team. The bend don't break of giving up FGs last week didn't hurt them. I think Seattle is down a bit. They are not the same team as the last 2 years, especially when playing on the road. Bengals 15-3-1 ATS last 19 at home. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking MICHIGAN here. I said on my podcast Wednesday night that this line is a bit odd looking. Guest Capper Tony K agreed. Why do we have Northwestern, the higher ranked team getting a TD here? They shut down Stanford, who went on the road and dropped 40 on USC. Northwestern went to Duke, who is a capable football team, and won there. They are off a shut-out. And we get this big number. Now Michigan hasn't been a powerful football school in quiet a bit. Both teams bring solid defenses. Northwestern giving up 7ppg, Wolverines allowing 184 yards total offense a game. Total sitting at an old school 35. Yet, the line is a TD. Something has to give here. I mean, isn't it easy to grab a good defense like the Wildcats getting the points. They played a bit of a tougher schedule. I think this line might drop a bit by game time. Again, I know the purpose of a line is to get 2 way action. But all I see is Northwestern money all day long here. So I think the Wolverines get a 10pt win here. 5* Best Bet MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 

Going UNDER that total here. Man, how can you not. Arrieta was just a flat-out beast this year. He should be the NL Cy Young Winner. 13-1 1.60 ERA on the road this year. 3-1 .75 ERA vs Pirates this year. A 1.77 ERA and .86 WHIP on the season! 236Ks in 229 innings. And Gerritt Cole is no slouch. 2-1 2.13 ERA vs Cubs this year. 2.60 ERA 1.09 WHIP on the year with 202Ks in 208 innings. So, right off the bat we have over 400 innings and strikeouts between a pair of guys who won 41 games this year. Looking at the last games these guys have played.. I see finals of total runs at 4,4,5, 15(Hendricks, Morton), 5,3,9 (Hammel, Cole),12 (Haren, Locke),5,3,5,21 (Hammel, Locke). Not looking at April since I use April as extended Spring numbers. But looking at these box scores, I see a huge winner on the board tonight with 6 runs. Cold, October play-off baseball. A couple of hard-throwers. I am going under. 5* Total Money UNDER Cubs/Pirates

Taking the ASTROS here. with Keuchal on the hill. This guy just might edge out David Price for the AL Cy Young Award. Obviously, he has very impressive numbers at home, but his road splits aren't very sexy. Doesn't matter to me though. This Yankees team will have a hard time getting their bats on the ball here. At home, he tossed a SHO 6 hitter with 12 Ks back in June vs NYY. In the Bronx, 7 innings 3 hits 9 more Ks. The big names for the Bombers are older guys who will have trouble catching up to this kid. I just don't see it happening. Even on short rest, I expect a big performance based on what a monumental feat this is for Houston. I will say Tanaka surprised me since his arm didn't explode. He had a solid year, but let's be honest, the guy ins't healthy. They skipped a start for him because of his hammy and he comes back to give up 4 runs in 5 innings. Astros torched him in Houston for 6 earned in 5 innings. Let's give Giardi and the Yanks some credit for getting here. No Tex. Arod a huge come-back year. But really, Ellsbury and Beltran weren't that good. Gardy and McCann had solid years. But this team clearly over-achieved. Astros advance. 5* Best Bet HOUSTON ASTROS 

Taking HOUSTON here. I though the Cowboys would pick off the Falcons last week. And it looked good for a half. Fact is, Atlanta took advantage of a Philly team that hasn't looked particularly good. They had to come from behind with help from the Giants. They needed a huge game from a RB averaging 2 YPR to beat a team without Romo or Dez Bryant. Texans haven't looked that terrible. Their QB situation looks stabilized with Mallet who seems to have found a nice target in WR DeAndre Hopkins. 5* Best Bet HOUSTON TEXANS 

Taking KANSAS CITY here. How many times are these MFers going to bury us? I guess I am insane since the definition of insanity is doing something over and over again expecting different results. That being said, YES, I am nuts! Look, this KC team shoots itself in the foot no doubt about it. But they have plenty of talent. People knock Alex Smith, but the guy wins games. Basically, I see this line and think, are you kidding me! Why is this line so low? You know from my podcast this year, and last year, that I am high on Cincy. I thought they were knocking Denver out 2 years ago to face Seattle in the Super Bowl. I know they are a very good team. But this does not pass my 'eye' test. Line is way too low. Off a short week, and another loss for KC. Cincy red-hot doing everything right. Yet, 4, 4.5? Not buying it. Bengals off tough game vs Ravens. Dalton hasn't been picked yet. Something tells me Chiefs get some pressure and Andy makes a mistake or two. 8* Sure Shot KC CHIEFS 

Taking SMU here. Last week we cashed an easy 10* winner on ECU over Va Tech. A perfect spot for them, and they delivered. Now the Pirates are on the road after that huge win. And laying points? Good luck with that. A super spot for SMU. Off a loss to James Madison. This SMU team can air it out. And I have little faith in ECU secondary. James Madison put up 700 yards of offense last week! I think we see improvement there. SMU can score. ECU might be playing the old rotating QB game. Another (our 3rd CFB) dog-out right winner here with our Top play. 10* Money Bomb SMU

Taking IOWA here .Quite frankly, not sold on this Wiscy team. Melvin Gordon isn't running the rock here. We have a pair of backs splitting time doing an ok, not super job. Iowa has one of the better rush defenses in the land. Badger QB doesn't scare me while our QB is quietly leading a team putting up nearly 38ppg. Points too good to pass up here. Another live dog for us. 10* Money Bomb IOWA 

Taking the RANGERS here. Colby Lewis pitching very well with a 1.71 ERA his last 3. In case you missed it. He's a 17 game winner on a team looking to clinch the AL West. Tigers are closing shop on a wasted, lost year. Verlander is a shell of his Cy Young self. He has pitched better lately, but I'm not sold on him, or his line-up. And especially that bullpen. Rangers are 4-1 last 5 times facing the Verlander. One final thought. Texas winds up the year with a series vs the Angels. There is no way, no way, they want that series to dictate what happens in their own play-off scenario. Look for them to take care of the Tigers early here. 5* Best Bet TEXAS RANGERS 

Taking the BLUE JAYS here. Jays looking to wrap up the AL East and get a great shot tonight vs the slumping Orioles. Baltimore actually had a shot at perhaps a wild-card spot, then fell flat on their faces getting shut-out three straight vs the Red Sox. Put a fork in them people. In 19 career starts vs Toronto, Tillman spots a 6.00 ERA and a 4-10 record including 0-5 last 5 at home and 1-6 last 7 vs Jays. 10* Money-Bomb TORONTO BLUE JAYS 

Taking the BILLS here. So, Rexy's big bad D gets absolutely shredded by Brady last week. Is that really a surprise? We cashed with Pats on the road, as we cashed with the Bills over Luck in Week 1. So, a week of reading their own press clippings and they are eating crow. So we have a team that got scorched at home vs a team that just lost a team that, quite frankly, if it weren't for the Raiders have been the worse team in football. We have a couple buts though, big ones!! First, Pats have owned Buffalo. now 22-2 SU last 24 meetings! This defense will be fired up. Tannehill is not Luck or Brady. And fired up is not in the Dolphins vocabulary. This is a chronic under-achieving bunch at home as evident by their 8-15 SU record. This team has scored 3 TDs in 2 weeks vs a pair of teams, who, are not suppose to be very good this year. Do we even have to get into Suh actin' the fool and going rogue with the DC play calls? 3 games into a huge contract this guy is going off the reservation already. Wow. Gladly fade the home team who barely rates as a home favorite. 10* Money Bomb BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking the RAMS here. We are 2-0 with STL, fade last week, win over Seattle. Look. Rams took a half to get ready last week. Makes sense, most teams after facing the Seahawks are bruised and battered and not ready to go on Sunday. But they will be ready here. What is up with this line? Steelers dropped nearly 50 last week running 2pt conversions. Rams lose to a 'lowly' Washington team that nobody thought would be any good with Cousins behind center. The old, what have you done for me lately, and eye test from the week before. Steelers get Bell back here. But I don't think we will see a lot of the RB. They have a big division game up next vs the Ravens. Are they 100% focused especially coming off a rout? STL at home, big crowd behind them. We'll bite here. 8* Sure Shot STL RAMS 

Taking the COLTS here. Yeah. It is looking like a total Joe Public play here. But how can we not back Luck here. Off 2 bad games. The guy is MUCH better than that. And he is facing the Titans. Luck is 7-1 SU-ATS on the road in the South. Why is everyone so high on Mariota? Yes, they surprised Tampa Bay. They just lost to the Browns. The Browns. How do people feel about those teams? Now they are going to out play the Colts. I will be the first to say this OL looks shaky. But, like my Giants winner on Thursday night. This is a the old 'circle the wagons' game for Indy. A big MUST win. I look for an adjust big time here by the Colts. Luck, and even Frank Gore with his fumble, played poorly. They get right here. Indy 7-0 ATS last 7 in the series. No let down concerns off the short week, instead we are in desperate win mode. And being that Luck is 12-0 SU vs his division, we will lay the short number here. 5* Best Bet INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Taking ARIZONA here. Wildcats might get a big boost with the heart of their defense, Scooby Wright suiting up here. UCLA played down last week with this game on deck. Perfectly understandable. Arizona a tidy 11-3 ATS as PAC 12 home dogs. Sprinkle in some Triple-Revenge and we have a recipe for success in my eyes. Can't over state the loss of UCLA LB Jack. He was the 3rd starter lost on that side of the ball. A big loss for them there. Arizona 5-1 ATS last 6 here at home. 8* Sure Shot ARIZONA WILDCATS 

Going OVER the total here. Man. You drop 80+ on a team, you better be ready when you travel to their field. I have no doubt Heisman hopeful QB Boykin will put up 5 TDs today. Tech is going to score their 40. To be honest, I can't believe this total isn't close to 100. The TCU defense is showing some dents in the armor. I see this as a back and forth game. Won't be shocked if Tech pulls out a win here. 5* Total Money OVER TCU/TT

Taking EAST CAROLINA here. So last week we faded this crew and rode Navy to a Top 10* win. We will flip the script here. One, ECU played Florida tough on the road. (I lost with the Gators) Then off that emotionally draining game, the face the Navy option which is not easy to prepare for. And, they know they had this game on deck! VT has the revenge angle. But laying double digits on the road? Eh, I'll take the Pirates with that. They are 16-3 SU at home last 19 games. ECU is 5-2 ATS last 7 vs Va Tech. Tech 2-9 ATS last 11 on the road. 10* Money Bomb EAST CAROLINA 

Taking BAYLOR here. A large number for sure. But right off the bat we have to fade Rice here. We get them in their 3rd straight road game, and it is a non-conference game for them to boot. They have a more meaningful, and for all intention purposes, a more winnable game in their eyes next. My worse case here is that after cruising to a 37-10 lead by half-time, Baylor eases up and wins something like 63-30. We do have Baylor with rest so they might really run it up early to get some game reps. 5* Best Bet BAYLOR 

Taking the INDIANS here. Can't even remember the last time I put out b2b Top 10s, especially when I am off a loss like the White Sox last night. That being said, this is a prime spot for us to win. Royals wrapped up their first division title since 1985 last night. I really can't see them being full-force today. A let down is in order. Carrasco has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA vs the Royals this year. Volquez has a 6.49 ERA his last 4 starts. Indians 7-3 last 10 vs KC - 10* Money Bomb CLEVELAND INDIANS 

Taking the WHITE SOX here. Moving a Top Rated 10* as we back Chris Sale. I know he doesn't have the good ole numbers the 2nd half of the season, but Sale has owned the Yankees. 3-0 .72 ERA 143 BA against. Yanks lost again to the Jays, they know they are a wild-card team. They are going through the motions here. Now Sale. Well he has lost 3 straight and win-less his last 5. I see him coming here and mowing down 10-15 hitters. Pineda made it to the 6th last time out. But since coming off the DL he has an ERA of 4.67, nothing spectacular. 10* Money Bomb CHICAGO WHITE SOX 

Taking the PACKERS here. It what is probably going to be a game that everyone and their grandparents are on, we will take GB in payback mode. Look. I had Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. I had no right winning that. Packers were in control of that game. Now they get a weaker Seattle team in Lambeau. Up 16-0 and clearly outplaying the Seahawks, Packers had months to sit and stew over that. Seattle has some issues. First a loss at STL. We cashed Rams as our Free Play. The big thing after the Super Bowl was how can you not use Beast Mode? Well he couldn't get a yard last week. Maybe Seattle can't pick up a yard in any situation. I know this. They lost last week on the road. They lost last September in San Diego on the road. They eked out a couple close wins at Carolina and Washington. They are a different team away from home.   Now they come face a team as dominate as they are on their own turf? 8* Sure Shot GREEN BAY PACKERS

Taking the COWBOYS here. We didn't get the cover last Sunday night with Dallas, but salvaged some of that rare Sunday loss fading the Eagles Monday night. So, no Dez. I get it. He is a big target and abuses this Philly secondary. The 'Boys have won by an average of over 13ppg the last 3 times these guys have played. I get Murray is going to want to have a huge game vs his old teammates. Maybe he will. Say he goes 100+ and a pair of TDs. I can live with that. Since I know Romo is good for 3-4 TDs. I am looking at Escobar to really step up here. People forget that he was a 2nd round pick. He has 7 TDs on 20 catches. With Dez down, I think everyone steps up a spot and this kid makes a difference. Let's be honest here. The Cowboys OL is better than the Falcons on any field, home, away, London, the moon. You don't think the Dallas RBs want to make a statement here? Getting points to boot? Sign me up. Neither defense excites me, but I think the Cowboys have the better unit. Should be points a plenty. Might sprinkle a little ML here, +175, 180 just for giggles. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the REDSKINS here. Ok, we cashed with STL as our Free Play last week, while we rode the Dolphins to victory fading these 'Skins. But a look at the numbers shows us that Washington wasn't all that terrible. A punt return for a TD was the difference maker. Morris went for over 100 on the ground vs a tough Miami defense. Which I think is as good as this STL group. Now, Rams off big win over Seattle. Maybe a bit of a let-down spot? Maybe road-dome-team outside? I know Cousins doesn't inspire much hope for a Super Bowl win, but I think this team is good enough to beat St Louis who might be a bit ego inflated coming off an emotional win. 5* Best Bet WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the STEELERS here. I won with SF on MNF and lost a big play with the Steelers/Pats Over on opening night. Look. Right off the bat I have to look at the rest here. Steelers with a lot of extra time to work on things. This is like a first game all over for them. Niners a big home win on Monday night, short week, heading to the East for a time change early game. I said that I thought that everyone was sleeping on SF Monday night. It showed. But here, I will grab Big Ben all day long. Beating a second year QB like Bridgewater at home and beating a Super Bowl winner on the road are two different worlds. Pitt 12-2 SU in home openers. I see them winning this by at least 10. 10* Money Bomb PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

5* Best Bet PENN STATE

Taking NAVY here. Ok. I faded ECU last week, it didn't work out. That being said, they are going to have a difficult time here in Annapolis. They haven't done well facing the Midshipmen option over the past few years. Navy is a tough team to prep for. I think we also have a bit of a let down here for ECU after their near upset last week at Florida, plus having Virginia Tech on deck. Navy didn't play last week so they are chomping at the bit here. I think the Navy run game is going to barrel right through this ECU defense. 10* Money Bomb NAVY 

Going OVER the total here. I think that the Navy rush option is going to destroy ECU here. I know ECU doesn't have the offense of years past. But I think they will give up 20+ here. That is perfect because I believe the Midshipmen are putting up a 40+ spot on the board. 5* Total Money OVER Navy/TCU

Taking the RANGERS here. No way Texas sweeps right. The Astros are a good team. Yes, Houston is a good team, but are in a rut right now. Rangers have been pounding these guys. I am not a big fan of McCullers, especially his road splits. Houston 0-8 his last 8 away from home.  He 1-5 4.93 ERA in 9 road starts this year with a .274 BA against and a 1.51 WHIP. The Rangers counter with Colby Lewis who is 7-0 2.57 ERA last 9 starts vs Astros.  Rangers 21-5 last 26 at home. 5* Best Bet TEXAS RANGERS 

Taking the RANGERS here. We had these guys last night and will look for them to take over first place in the west over the slumping Astros. They are 9-4 vs Houston this season and the 'Stros are 2-5 so far on their road trip. Rangers 7-2 in Holland's last 9 home starts. 5* Best Bet TEXAS RANGERS 

Taking the COWBOYS here. Look. I am a Jersey guy. I am in the Giants backyard. I have all the ins and outs of the NFC East. I am also a Dallas fan. That being said. There is a reason this line is where it is. Dallas is the better team. Forget about how will they replace Murray. It won't matter here. The Giants secondary is leaky. They could never stop Witten. Dez is one of the best. They have slot WRs and the best OL in the league. And for all the knocking on Romo, the guy is pretty good QB. Now, Eli has Odell. That kid is good, no doubt. But I think the Cowboys defense is better than the Giants. They can make a stop or two if needed. Dallas has swept the last 2 years and I don't see anything changing here opening night. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS

Taking TAMPA BAY here. I can't hide it. I like TB! Last year they cost us, but I think a year under HC Smith has helped this team. He will be taking over the defense and I think will have something special for the rookie on the other side of the field. Yes, we have a rookie behind center as well. But I think we have a bit more going in our skill position players than the Titans. Now playing on or against rookie NFL QBs probably isn't a recipe for betting success, but sometimes opportunity arises. Mariota never played in a system like this. At least Winston played pro-style in college. That takes time to grasp. Now, on the road. Come on. WR Mike Evans, and veteran Vincent Jackson both topped 1000 yards last year. That sure helps out a rookie at home. RB Martin looked like his rookie self this pre-season which also bolsters the young QB. 10* Money Bomb TAMPA BAY BUCS

Taking CINCINNATI here. Last year I thought that Cincy would break through and get into the AFC Championship Game. I still think this team has Super Bowl talent. They win during the regular season. They take care of who they have to beat during the year. And believe me, the Raiders are one of those team. I know there is a lot of love that Oakland will be improved. And they should be. They were brutal last year! Bengals have above average offenses and defenses. And I think that Raiders under Del Rio will improve overall, I don't think even with a new OC that the offense can pull out an upset here. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the JETS here. I have to say. Everyone think the Jets are getting picked off here and the Browns are a trendy pick. But I'm not buying it. I look at this Jets team like an old Parcells team he had. A journeyman QB (Testaverde) comes in with some angry WR (Keyshawn) and they make some noise. Now, I am not saying Bowles is the Tuna, and Marshall is Keyshawn, but, it is similar. FitzMagic is a decent QB. He is not elite, but he isn't the bottom of the barrel. He has a good RB in Ivory. Veteran duo of WR in Decker and Marshall. A very good defense to help him out. He isn't looking over his shoulder. I think this Jets team will surprise many this season. Now the Brown have a nice looking D. They have a good OL with Thomas and Mack. But their WR corp does not impress me. Their QB, Josh McCown, the guy who went 1-10 SU for Tampa last year, does not impress me. Is RB Crowell going to motor for 150 yards today? Doubt it. They are lackluster for sure. Jets need this win as they have Indy, Miami and Philly up next. New HC will want to get a win, especially since this is a team they are clearly better than. 8* Sure Shot NY JETS

Taking MIAMI here. Ok. I think the Dolphins are 10 points better. I do. They have their cornerstone QB locked up with a huge contract. The Skins benched their QB who they traded away their future for. I really don't want to knock Cousins, but he isn't very good. Washington has a couple guys around him to help, but I think this team is splintered. Bottom-line for me. Miami is the much better team. The offense has some nice weapons. The defense is going to be very good. They will be in backfield all day here on Sunday causing problems. If Miami doesn't win this by a TD I would be shocked. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking MISSISSIPPI STATE here. Am I missing something here? Sometimes when things look too good be to be true, they are. But I can't not back the Bulldogs here. We cashed last week with Southern Miss over this same group. I thought the way MSU buried them last year, will add some extra edge to those home dogs, who covered the number for us. Now we get a powerful SEC team in a home dog role. A place they are 18-3 SU since 2012. They didn't play a cup-cake last week. They had to focus on an in-state rival who was gunning for them big-time. It wasn't a sexy win, the stats weren't overwhelming. But State did what it had to do. LSU on the other hand had their cream-puff game postponed due to weather. Now, LSU, like MSU probably spent time looking ahead to this game. It is a revenger for the Tigers. But LSU does have Auburn on deck. I think the real game-play helps us out here. Won't be shocked for an out-right win, but will be happy with the cover. 10* Money Bomb MISSISSIPPI STATE 

5* Best Bet CAL BEARS

Taking UTAH STATE here. Aggies really laid an egg last week barely getting by Southern Utah. But let's be honest. Their focus was on this game. PAC 12 Utah is off a nice win over MIchigan. Not really a shock. Michigan is down. But none the less Utes not that impressive on offense and need the TO edge to pull out the win. State QB Keeton is a pretty good signal caller. I think the ugly game last week helps them since Utah won't have much film to go on. Plenty of surprises possibly on tap for the Aggies to unleash. Or at least some new looks from their new OC. Just feel this is too many points here. 5* Best Bet UTAH STATE

Going OVER the total here. Do we really think that Tom Brady won't be looking to run it up here? What happened in the 2nd half of that Colts game after they took his ball? How did he do in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl against the Legion of Boom? This Steelers offense will be able to put up points. Their defense could be one of the worse in football. Brady is putting up a 40 spot here in his sleep. The over is 8-2 last 10 in the series. 10* Total Money OVER Steelers/Patriots 

Taking the METS here. No way the Nats get swept at home right? Did you see the game last night. Blowing a 7-1 lead. Put a fork in Washington. They are done. They just had their souls ripped out of them. Not a chance they recover to win today. Mets have been playing like a team possessed the last month. 5* Best Bet NY METS

Taking OHIO STATE here. What is there to say in this spot? Hokies came into the Horseshoe last year and won! Now it's time for pay back. I will say it is tough to lay 2 TDs on the road, but the defending champions are talented on both sides of the ball. I will be honest and tell you I really wanted to take Va Tech here. But I can't. VT hasn't been a top team in years. Urban Meyer's team is 38-3 since he took over in Columbus. This is a huge game obviously for both team. OSU has Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and the Indiana coming up before they get a 'decent' team again in  Maryland. This is a test simply because of the cupcakes on deck. Buckeyes are on a the cusp of a dynasty run here. 5* Best Bet OHIO STATE

Taking BYU here. I must be missing something here. Didn't Nebraska just bring in a new HC. A HC who likes to install pro-set offenses? Isn't Nebraska generally, a power run team? Can you really trust a new regime with an old regime players when you are coming in changing the entire offense scheme? BYU is a solid bunch. I just can't back a new HC laying a TD here, even at Nebraska. Especially against a solid team with a HC who is just as experienced in games like this. 8* Sure Shot BYU

Taking TCU here. Look. TCU found themselves on the outside looking in last year come playoff time. There is not a chance that they let Minny hang here. So the coaches are friendly. No coach is getting into a close game when every point and possession will be broken down in a play-off poll. Horned Frogs have high hopes this season. If TCU doesn't win by 15-20, I would be shocked. And frankly, if it less than a 2 TD win, they will be looking at the schedule and hoping for someone to slip up with a full blown loss to get back in the hunt. 5* Best Bet TCU

Taking WESTERN KENTUCKY here. Look. These guys are very good. So they are in C-USA. You don't think they are chomping at the bit to take out an SEC team. Even if Vandy is predicted as a last place team. These guys want to make a statement. The offense is very good. They have a QB who passed for over 4500 yards and a RB who rushed for over 1500. They can make you pay in the air or over land. HC Jeff Brohm's team could win the CUSA this year while 2nd year HC Derek Mason across the field is trying to build on 0-8 SEC record last year. He does have a lot of returning starters, but this is a hungry Hilltoppers team. 8* Sure Shot WESTERN KENTUCKY 

Taking NORTH CAROLINA here. This is a talented bunch these Tarheels. I like the experience they bring back on the OL. The have a potential ACC POY in their QB Williams. The defense, which was dreadful last year, can't be worse. But I expect them to be a vastly improved unit as former Auburn National Champion HC Gene Chizik is ready to transform them. Spurrier will be hoping red-shirt sophomore Connor Mitch is the man for the job behind center. The offense returns just 4 starters, the defense better with 8. They will need the D to keep the NC offense limited because they can be explosive. 10* Money Bomb NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS