5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

The public is backing the home team in a big way as this line opened Jags minus -3. Maybe they see that Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman will not play. I think the Falcons' backups are better than the Jags' backups and this game should be decided in the 4th quarter. You can't tell me the Falcons won't have extra motivation after the comments made by Jalen Ramsey. Also, Jacksonville's offensive line won't be at full strength and this could be a big factor in this game. Finally, from my NFL preseason annual---Teams that begin 0-2 straight up over the last 11 years are 63-41 ATS (60.5%) in their very next game. Take the Falcons plus the generous 4.5 points!

5*Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Titans return home for its preseason opener coming off a blowout loss. New Head coach Mike Vrabel is a defensive guy and from everything I read he wants to win this game. Take the host!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +3

The Steelers will have the much better QB rotation in this game. The Eagles are going to be very cautious with Nick Foles, especially with Carson Wentz out for most of the preseason. I believe the Steelers will be extremely pumped-up playing the defending SB champs from their home state. Also, the Eagles are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 tries in game one of the preseason. Finally, teams that allowed 40+ points in the playoffs are a bankrolling 10-2 straight-up and 10-2 ATS in their first preseason game the following season. Play the Steelers plus the generous three points!

4*Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-115)  (McCullers/Stanek)

5*Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The Cavs are not as bad as they played in game two. They should have won game one. This is a must win game and their bench should play much better at home. Take the hungry host!

10*Cleveland Cavs +13

I have been watching the NBA for about 35 years, and to my eyes the Warriors are NOT 13 points better as of right now. No way. I think LeBron and company will use the huge underdog factor in this first game and play really well. This line should be closer to 8 or 9 points. Take the road dog!

5*Boston Celtics +5

This line seems a tad high for me so I'm taking the Celtics again after cashing with them in game five. This should be a very close game either way. Take the road dog!

5*Boston Celtics -3

The Bucks set a franchise record with 14 blocks in their game four victory. They also shot the lights out from 3-point land and still won by just two points. I like the Celtics at home in this one!

4*Minnesota T-Wolves +6.5

4*New York Knicks -1.5

4*Villanova -5

3*Cleveland Cavaliers +1

4*Duke -3

3*Dallas Mavs +1.5

4*Kansas State +5.5

4*Portland Trail Blazers +5

4*Marshall +12.5

4*Purdue -3.5

5*College Charleston +9.5

I think Auburn is a tad overrated and they haven't traveled past the state of Texas this season. The College of Charleston has two terrific guards and the entire team is well-coached. I think this line is heading lower so get down ASAP. Take the underdog!

4*NC State +2.5

5*Rhode Island -2

Oklahoma hasn't played in eight days. Tough. I think this Rhode Island team is flying under the radar. They matchup quite well against the Sooners. Not sold on Oklahoma as they are just 13-13 SU and 8-18 ATS vs teams with a winning record. This line opened at Pick and still love it at the current number. Take the Rams!

4*Eastern Washington +5

4*Baylor +6

4*Vanderbilt +2.5

4*Dallas Mavs +5.5

3* Memphis Grizzlies +8

3* Iowa +1.5

4*Georgia Southern -1

4*Marshall +3

4*Illinois State +1.5

4*Houston U +2.5

4*Chicago Bulls -4.5

4*OK State -2

5*TCU -3

TCU is very good at home and I believe they matchup quite well against the Red Raiders. Unranked home favorites against ranked teams cash at a very high rate this time of year. Take the Horned Frogs!

3*Old Dominion -2.5

4*Clemson +2

5*Wisconsin -2.5

Nebraska scored 98 points on 30-for-52 shooting against Iowa on Sunday. They now must play a road game against Wisconsin, who have this game circled. On 1/9/18, the Cornhuskers defeated the Badgers 63-59 because of a huge discrepancy in free throw attempts. The host should get more calls than Wisky after receiving just 10 tries in that 4-point loss. Nebraska is 0-5 ATS after scoring 90+ points of late. Take the hungry host!

4*Miami Ohio -1

3*Detroit Pistons -2.5

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Yes the Vikings have a terrific defense, but don't sleep on this Eagles squad. Philadelphia has the #1 ranked front 7 according to Football Outsiders. Minnesota is ranked 13th. The Vikings played seven true road games (one in London where the crowd was cheering for them) that produced just a +2 point differential. To that point, they are ranked 21st in Net yards per play on the road. Minnesota is coming off an emotional miracle victory, and I wonder just how much pep they will have. I like the Eagles who are in the same exact spot as last week. A home team getting points in playoffs. Almost unheard of. Take Philly!

3*St. Joe's PK

5*New Orleans Saints +5

This is a rematch from week one when the Vikings defeated New Orleans 29-19 as 3-point road underdogs. Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook played big roles so that game is meaningless. New Orleans has gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in revenge games of late. The Saints are ranked 1st in Net Yards per play (6.3) while the Vikings are averaging 5.4 Net Yards per play, which ranks 12th. We get the QB (Drew Brees) and head coach with significant more postseason experience. Sean Payton is 7-4 SU in the postseason, including a Super Bowl victory in 2009. Mike Zimmer is 0-1. The Saints are ranked 1st in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. The Vikings are ranked 4th. The Saints have the better numbers in five of the remaining six key analytical stats. New Orleans is also ranked higher in time of possession, red zone efficiency, and the kicking game. This is a classic overlay. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Falcons played a very physical game last week and now must travel once again. Tough. This line would be Eagles -3.5 if Carson Wenztz was the starting QB. Yes he's the read deal, but Nick Foles has a lot of experience and his career QB rating is just six points lower than Matt Ryan. The Eagles have a strong running game (132.2 ypg) going up against a defense that is allowing 105 rushing ypg. The Falcons stop side is allowing a passer rating against of 88.4, which ranks last of the remaining playoff teams. Keep in mind, the Falcons are 6-12 ATS in all playoff games since 1993, including 1-6 ATS off an upset victory. Atlanta is ranked #15 in Overall Team Efficiency while the Eagles are ranked 5th at Football Outsiders. The Eagles are also ranked 5th in overall defense while the Falcons are ranked #22. Philadelphia is allowing just 211 passing yards per contest at home. Take the hungry and undervalued Eagles!

4*Georgetown +6.5

5*Alabama -3.5

I think the Crimson Tide will ride their experience and head coach to an easy victory. This line should be closer to 5. Georgia is coming off an emotional victory and now must travel back home to play a team on a mission after losing last year's Championship. Nick Saban has game planed extremely well against freshman QB's that are one-dimensional. I will swallow the 3.5 points and go with Alabama.

5*Carolina Panthers +7

These teams are very familiar with one another, and digging through the analytics I see some value on the underdog. The Panthers defense is ranked 7th at Football Outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 30th. That's a big difference and consider the Panthers are allowing just 88 rushing yards per game, going against the Saints who like to run early. Carolina is ranked just eight spots lower than KC in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. It's also very difficult for a team (Saints) to defeat the same team (Panthers) three times in a given season. Carolina is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs. I'll take the points in this upset special!

5*Tennessee Titans +9

I think this line way too high. The Titans are allowing less yards per game and per play than the chalky Chiefs. The game will be played in freezing conditions and both teams will be playing a run first, pass late offense. The Titans have really good players on the offensive and defensive lines. Marcus Mariota will be able to pick up some key first downs with his running ability. Tennessee is much superior at stopping the run. Wild Card underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense are cashing 66% over the past five seasons. This is a must take!

5*Miami U +6

Before the season started, I wrote about three College Football Spotlight teams which you can read at my website. The previous two (Michigan State & Texas) both won and covered their respected bowl games. Miami was my third. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up to play in the Orange Bowl at home. They've had tremendous success in this Bowl game and the fans will surely be on the Hurricanes' side. Wisconsin had its dream crushed in losing to Ohio State otherwise they would be in the playoffs. I think this line should be closer to 4. Don't forget ACC Bowl underdogs are 9-2 SU against Big 10 opponents. I will side with the Miami U plus the points.

10*New Mexico State +4.5

This should be named the Aggie Bowl. I believe the team from Las Cruces will be extremely motivated to win their first Bowl game since the 1960 Sun Bowl. It's been 57 years since New Mexico State has gone bowling. Only 275 miles from home, the team from Las Cruces should be well-represented in the stands. The Aggies of New Mexico State owns better stats on both sides of the ball, especially against other bowl teams. New Mexico State has dropped three straight against Utah State which brings me to this stat. Non-Conference triple revenge underdogs of 5 or less points are a sterling 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the bowls. Lets take the generous 4.5 points in the Arizona Bowl!

5*Purdue +3

High-powered offenses (Arizona) tend to struggle as favorites with a month of rest. The Boilermakers improving defense will make it tough on Tate and company. Purdue went 5-2 ATS vs. other bowl teams while Arizona went 2-5 ATS. The Wildcats are allowing 6.5 net yards per play against other bowl teams while Purdue allowed just 5.5 net yards per play. Purdue had to pull an upset at Iowa to have a shot at a bowl game. I sense this will be a motivated team seeking to give Purdue its first winning season and bowl victory since 2011. Lastly, Rich Rodriguez has coached his teams to a 2-8 ATS bowl record in his career.

5*Northern Illinois +5.5

The Huskies own the better offense and defense. Duke is coming off back-to-back underdog revenge wins against GA Tech and Wake Forrest to become bowl eligible. They are now favorites despite going 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS against other bowl teams. Not to mention, they were outgained in five of those seven games. Northern Illinois is allowing just 4.6 net yards per play while Duke is allowing 5.4 net yards per play. I like the Huskies plus the points!

4*San Francisco 49ers +4.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

This one is quite simple for me. I believe the Bengals will play extremely hard in the last home game that Marvin Lewis will coach in. The Lions are a dome team having to play in very cold conditions where the kickoff temp is expected to be in the mid 30s. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS as home underdogs in December under Lewis. Take the Cats!

4*Tennessee Titans +7

5*Central Michigan +1

Central Michigan should be extremely motivated after losing last year's Bowl game by 45 points. The Chippewas are averaging 5.9 net yards per play on the road compare to 3.9 for Wyoming, which ranks 4th worst in the nation. Eight or more win bowl teams coming off a 40+ bowl loss have gone 9-3 SU of late. I have CM as 2-point chalk so lets trust my numbers and take the Chippewas.

3*LA Tech +5

10*Houston Texans +11.5

I have upgraded the Texans now that T. J. Yates will be under Center. Yates is 5-0 ATS in his career as an underdog and he played well in relief last week. Jacksonville is coming off a big win against the Seahawks last Sunday. Division home favorites are just 3-15 ATS after facing Seattle under Pete Carroll. This is a rematch from week one when the Jags crushed Houston 29-7. We note that Jacksonville benefited from a 4-0 turnover margin, while only gaining 280 total yards. The Texans remember how bad they played and have been waiting for this one. Also, double digit division underdogs are cashing close to 70% if they lost the first meeting by more than 20 points over the past decade. Jacksonville has played the fifth easiest schedule in all of football. Finally, the Jags have a huge revenge game against the Titans next week from a week two 37-16 home loss. Take the road dog!

5*Boise State +7.5

The Broncos have better numbers against other bowl teams than Oregon and it's really not close. I am really surprised this line is a full touchdown. Bowl favorites off a 65+ point victory are 4-12 ATS of late. The Broncos have been terrific in bowl games as medium range underdogs (4 -7 points) going 4-0 in their last four tries. Boise State went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS against other bowl teams with a net yards gained of +42. Oregon went 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS against fellow bowlers with a net yards gained of +4. Boise State is 26-14 ATS as an underdog of any kind since 1993. Take the points in the Las Vegas Bowl!

4*North Texas +7

North Texas should be extremely motivated after winning 9 games this season. Before the season started, NT was projected to win about four games. They allowed 41 points to FIU in their final regular season game and should be pumped up in this spot. North Texas played a tougher schedule than Troy, and the Mean Green went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS against fellow bowlers. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. I think this will be a one possession game so I will take the points with the Mean Green.

4*Detroit Pistons -6

4*New York Knicks -3.5

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

4*Carolina Panthers +3

4*New York Giants +4

5*Seattle Seahawks +6

The Eagles are 10-1 SU which looks really good. However, nine of those 10 victories have come against teams with currently a losing record. The Seahawks have lost their past two home games so I would expect a big time effort in this spot. Seattle has a Net Yards per play of 5.9 at home while the Eagles check in at 5.8 Net Yards per play on the road. The Eagles held the Bears to a 38.3 passer rating last week. In the last seven times an NFL team has held their opponent to a passer rating of 40 or below, six of those teams have lost the game outright. This line would suggest that the Seahawks would be 12-point underdogs if this game was in Philly. No way that would happen. This line should be closer to 4.5 points. Lastly, the Seahawks are 17-9 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the hungry host!

4*Wisconsin +7

5*Georgia +3

Auburn has played two emotional games in a span of three weeks. Teams have been a solid play against after upsetting Alabama with no rest. Georgia has a very impressive 7.2 net yards per play in their home state while the Tigers have a net yards per play of 5.4 on the road. I think the Bulldogs have the better offense and defense. I got to believe the Bulldogs will be pumped-up for this rematch of its only loss of the season. Georgia has cashed seven of their past nine tries in same season revenge games. Take the underdog in this upset maker!

4*Los Angeles Clippers +2.5

4*Utah Jazz -1.5

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Tampa Bay has been solid on the road this season with a 5.7 net yards per play. My power rankings would make Atlanta 7-point chalk. The Buccaneers are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency while the Falcons are ranked 17th according to Football Outsiders. This line would reflect the Falcons ranking in the top 10. I believe this line is inflated so lets take the double digit points in this huge rivalry game. 

10*Iowa State +3

The Wildcats became bowl eligible in last week's 45-40 win against Oklahoma State. It was a phony win as they were outgained by 89 yards. In fact, Kansas State has been outgained in eight consecutive games. I have to question the host's motivation in this spot. They really can't improve their bowl position. On the flip side, we have a team that fully remembers what happened last season. Iowa State lost at home to these Wildcats 31-26 despite outgaining K-State 493-398. This is a circled game on the calendar for the Cyclones. We also get 3 points with the better defense that is allowing 59 fewer yards per game and 5.4 fewer points per game. I love using net yards per play in my handicapping process because it takes turnovers out of the equation. Iowa State has a net yards per play of 6.3 on the road while Kansas State checks in at 5.5 in home games. Overall, they are right next to each other in the rankings. The Cyclones also have a solid advantage in the red zone. Look for the road team improve to 10-3 ATS this season!

5*Fresno State +7

3*Dallas Cowboys +2.5

4*New Orleans Pelicans +3

5*Chicago Bears +3

The key handicap to this game is a clear one. The Bears rushing attack (121.8 per game) going up against a defense that is ranked No. 32 in stopping the run at Football Outsiders. The Lions won last week 38-24, despite getting outgained by 68 yards against Cleveland. The Lions are ranked No. 32 in run-blocking and 23rd in pass protection. The Bears can't wait for this game. The host is ranked 4th in sacks and their defensive line is ranked 2nd overall at Football Outsiders. The forecast calls for temps in the low 30s and a tad breezy. The Lions won't be accustomed to those conditions. Detroit is 8-14 SU & 6-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. John Fox has been solid in his career after losing two or more games. Take the Bears in this upset maker!

4*Cleveland Browns +8

3*Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK

5*Texas Tech +7.5

This is a big game for the Red Raiders looking to become bowl-eligible. The host has a real shot as Texas Tech ranks 10 spots higher in Net Yards per play over TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an emotional season-crushing loss against Oklahoma. That's always tough to bounce back from. TCU is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons while Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points of late. I have this game as a 6-point spread so lets trust my numbers and take the home underdog.

3*Portland T-Blazers -1

4*Cleveland Browns +11

4*Indianapolis Colts +10

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

4*LA Chargers +4

4*Cincinnati Bengals +5

10*Utah +1.5

I think Washington State is spent having played 10 straight weeks without rest. They will get a BYE next week before facing arch rival Washington U. The Cougars played a very physical game last week against Stanford and now must play a high-altitude game. Tough. The road team is one-dimensional on offense, averaging just 85 rushing yards per game compared to 161 for the host. The Utes are 8-2 ATS when playing teams with a winning record over the past three seasons. Utah has a Net yards per play of 5.8 at home, while WA State is at 5.3 Net yards per play on the road. College Football Home underdogs (above .500) that out-rush its opponent are 52-24 ATS this decade. Take the Utes!

5*Georgia Tech +3

After Virginia Tech saw its Coastal Title hopes dashed, this spot sets up perfectly for the Yellow Jackets to catch the Hokies sleeping with the early kickoff. The host runs that option up and down the field and are intent on snapping their recent slump. This team should be pumped up trying to stay in the hunt for a Bowl game. The Jackets are ranked five spots higher in Net yards per play over the Hokies. Take the hungry host.

3*New York Knicks +2

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

The Buccaneers are not as bad as their record indicates. Tampa Bay has outgained five of its seven opponents so far this season. The Saints are ranked 3rd (6.1) in net yards per play while the Buccaneers are ranked 5th (5.9) so far this season. Solid. New Orleans has cluster injuries on their offensive line. Division road underdogs of 6 or more points coming off three or more consecutive losses have been very profitable this decade. Take the road dog!

4*Miami FL +3

5*Southern Miss +7

The Golden Eagles are a real team with a better offense, defense, special teams, time of possession, and discipline. Southern Miss has a net yards per play of 5.8 including 6.4 on the road. They are ranked 44th overall compared to 121st (4.5 net yards per play) for the host. Tennessee is just 6-14 ATS as home chalk over the past three seasons, while Southern Miss is 9-4 ATS in Non-Conference games over the same time frame. Lastly, the Vols are the third worst team in the Nation in net yards per play at home (3.7). Southern Miss has been very good as underdogs off a loss of late. Take the road dog in what should be a very close game.

4*Chicago Bears +9.5

4*Buffalo Bills -2.5

4*LA Chargers +7.5

4*New Mexico State +4.5

4*Texas A&M +1.5

4*Vanderbilt +7

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

The Steelers are coming off a very emotional victory, derailing the Chiefs from the undefeated ranks. The Bengals lost both games SU and ATS against Pittsburgh last season. I think the Bengals will be super focused coming off their BYE week. The Bengals have a real defense, allowing just 4.4 yards per play compared to 4.8 for the host. With this low total points should be at a premium. Take the home dog!

5*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Bears have a really good offensive line and sneaky good defense. The stop unit is allowing a QB rating of just 88.5 which is 9 points better than Carolina. The Bears are averaging 5.1 Yards per play with Trubisky which is an upgrade. He has all the skills to be a top-notch QB in this league. This will be Trubisky's third start and that bodes well coming off his best game with a 94 QB rating. Carolina is averaging 5.0 yards per play this season which ranks 24th. The Panthers have a huge revenge game on deck against the Buccaneers. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in October under John Fox. I think this line is way out of whack. Chicago is the best 2-4 team in the league and trending way up. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

3*Oregon +7

4*Ball State +3