10*Baltimore Ravens +5.5

This will be the Rams' third game in 12 days after having to play on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This will also be the Rams' first back to back road trip without extra rest this season. This game was originally scheduled for 4:25 PM E. Now, it's an early game (10:00 AM body clock) for the Rams, who had to fly back to the West Coast after playing at Minnesota. No Lamar is fine by me. Tyler Huntley has a QBR of 58.9, while Lamar's QBR is 50.1. QBR is a percentage so anything over 50 is above average. By comparison, P. Mahomes QBR is 59.0, which shows just how well Huntley has played.

The Rams have been outgained in four of their past six games, while the Ravens have outgained opponents in four of their past five. The Ravens are ranked No. 3 in third-down defense, while the Rams are ranked No. 20 this season. Look at the Rams when they don't play on turf. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on a grass surface this season. The Rams are also 1-3 ATS vs. winning teams. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons, including 4-1 ATS this year. The Ravens get numerous key defensive players back after having to sit out due to Covid restrictions. Take the Ravens in their Super Bowl!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

5*Minnesota Vikings +3

Both teams will be playing with short rest, but the Rams are in the tougher spot. They have won and covered three straight games. LA is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS after winning three straight since 2018. The Vikings have played 11 straight games decided by single digits. They are the only team not to drop any game by more than 8 points. Minnesota was lucky to win at Chicago and should play much better returning home. The Vikings are ranked No. 3 in QB sacks (44) and ranked No. 2 in QB sacks allowed (22) this season. Strong combo. Imagine you're a football team (LAR) having to prepare/play for a night game than travel five days later for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game in week 16. The Vikings own the fifth-best special teams unit, while the Rams are ranked No. 17 this season. Kirk Cousins does his best work (58.4% ATS) in this time slot (1:00 PM E). Take the home underdog plus the points.

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Atlanta Falcons +9

This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. The Falcons have been much better in the trenches since their BYE week, so the season long stats are skewed quite a bit. Atlanta defeated the 49ers back in 2019, as 10.5-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are 1-11-1 in their past 13 games as a favorite. SF is 3-10 ATS vs. losing teams of late. This game qualifies as a highly profitable system play. Home favorites following an OT game. Theses teams are 37-58-4 ATS (38.9%) since 2008. This angle also applies to the Saints this week. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season past three years. The 49ers play at Tennessee on Thursday so not much reason to win by margin. Take the road dog!

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

5*Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Tough spot for the 49ers with cluster injuries at RB and CB. Not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season, and third road game in 22 days. The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on turf this season. The turf in Cincinnati (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) is completely different than the turf in Seattle (Field turf). The Bengals' offensive line is ranked No. 10 at Football Outsiders, while SF is ranked No. 19 this season. Cincinnati will be getting both starting tackles back after missing last week's home loss. The Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run, while SF is ranked No. 18 this season. Cincinnati commits the fewest penalties per game (4.2) and are 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home. The Bengals are ranked No. 10 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 22 this season. Coldest game of the season for SF to date. They are 0-2 SU in cold weather games (40 or below at kickoff), but the kick-off temp should be closer to 44 degrees. I thought it was worth mentioning. Take the hungry host!

4*Sacramento Kings +6.5

Both teams played yesterday. Sacramento's Fox missed two free throws for the win. The Cavs had a season-high 7 players reach double figures in shooting over 52% from the field. This will be Cleveland's fourth game in six games. Very tough. The Cavs are 1-18 SU and 4-14 ATS vs. Pacific Division foes. The Kings are 20-10 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. I like the road team in this spot!

5*Detroit Lions +7

This will be the Vikings' fourth road game in five weeks. Two of those games were on the West coast. The Lions will have three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, while Minnesota is allowing 4.8 this season. The Lions have the better offensive line, defensive line, and total defense at Football outsiders. Also, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams in all of football. If D. Swift doesn't play, Jamaal Williams is more than capable. The Vikings defense will be without E. Griffen, D. Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Hunter & Griffen had three sacks and one forced fumble combined in the first matchup. Teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS after playing the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Vikings play (Steelers) Thursday night so no reason to win by margin. Take the winless home underdog with the better defense!

3*Sacramento Kings +8.5

Both teams will be playing its third game in four days. The Kings committed 19 turnovers and shot 20.6% from beyond the arc last night. I like the fact that Sacramento just played at Staples while defeating the LA Lakers. The Kings are 3-1 SU in their past four meetings against LAC at Staples. Take the road dog!

4*Denver Broncos +3

Love the Broncos as division home underdogs. Denver is ranked No. 4 in opponent passer rating which should matchup well against the pass-happy Chargers. LA scored 40+ points last week and now travel to high-altitude. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Denver is 23-6 SU and 21-6 ATS when playing with two weeks of rest. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in weeks 10 thru 13 of late. Take the Broncos in this one!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I just think the Colts physical style of play can keep this one close in bad weather. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as 7-point home favorites back in Jan. despite getting outgained 472-397. Nice revenge spot. Take the road dog!

5*Houston Texans +10.5

Tyrod Taylor should be much better with a game in hand and more reps during their BYE week. His running and escape-ability plays well as big underdog. The Titans have played 11 straight weeks with five signature wins in a row. Tennessee has been outgained by 262 combined yards in their past two wins. Red flag. Seems like a flat spot with the New England Patriots on deck. Tennessee has a massive injury list. Take the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*LA Chargers -2.5

This will be the first West Coast game for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins sports a 1-5 SU record when playing on the West Coast with Minnesota. The Vikings played a physical overtime game against Baltimore last week, in which their defense was on the field for 89 plays and 46:04 of field time. The Chargers own a +0.3 yard differential, while the Vikings are -0.1 this season. Justin Herbert's QBR is 64.1 while Cousins' QBR is 55.3. The Chargers offensive line is ranked No. 17, while the Vikings are ranked No. 28 at Football Outsiders. NFL teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS after playing the Ravens without rest this season. Minnesota possibly missing six starters on defense and they play Green Bay at home next week. Take LAC!

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

5*San Francisco 49ers +2.5

The 49ers bring in the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. SF defensive line is ranked No. 5 while Arizona is ranked No. 21. Kyler Murray is questionable to start. I'm hearing Arizona wants to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. That won't be this week. Colt McCoy will start for Arizona. The 49ers lost 17-10 earlier this season, despite out-gaining Arizona 338-304. Kyle Shanahan knows how to defend Murray just in case he starts. I think this is the perfect time to start fading Kliff Kingsbury and company. Kyle Shanahan is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in revenge games over the past three years. Take the home dog!

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!

10*Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The Colts are ranked No. 15 in overall team efficiency, while the Titans are ranked No. 20 at Football Outsiders. The Titans have a -0.4 net yard differential, while the Colts have a 0.0 net yard differential through the first seven weeks. The Colts are really good in same-season revenge games at home. The Titans defeated the Colts 25-16, as 5-point home chalk despite having a -3 turnover differential. It was a 1-point game entering the 4th quarter. Tennessee has won & covered three straight games with an impressive +51 ATS margin. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that has allowed 21 sacks (28th) and will be playing inside a dome for the first time this season. The Titans will be without their top three tackles which makes this play even stronger. The Colts are ranked No. 12 against the run, while the Titans are ranked No. 22 this season. The Colts are 8-2 straight-up in October over the past three seasons and 7-3 ATS at home against the Titans. Take the home dog!

4*North Carolina +4

The Fighting Irish have played the tougher schedule which I respect a great deal. North Carolina has a +1.2 net yards per play differential, while Notre Dame has a -0.1 net yards per play differential this season. That's a massive difference especially in this spot. The big advantage for the Tar Heels is on the offensive line. North Carolina is ranked No. 19, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 97 at Football Outsiders. North Carolina has revenge from last year's loss and two weeks to prepare. ND defeated USC last week despite getting outgained 424-383. Red flag. The Fighting Irish are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS after playing the Trojans of late. I will side the with Tar Heels plus the points in this one! 

3*San Francisco 49ers -4

The Colts want to run the ball to setup play-action. The 49ers strength is their run defense as they have't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. San Francisco has two weeks to prepare for a hobbled Colts' team in this prime-time affair. East Coast teams playing in Prime-time (8:00 PM E or later) on the West coast have been a solid play against, as the West Coast teams are 52-29-6 ATS. The Colts defeated Houston 31-3 last week and out-gained the Texans by just a 388-353 mark. The Colts have a huge division game against the Titans next week. Take the hungry host! 

3*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Eagles have 10 days to prepare coming off Thursday's loss against Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has played the 6th-toughest schedule so far this season. Trap line. You have a 4-2 home team vs. 2-4 road team "only" laying a FG. This line suggests the Eagles and Raiders are just about even on a neutral field. There will be 40% Eagles' fans which adds value to this line. The Raiders were all in last week. I see a major letdown before their BYE week. Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS as a favorite over the past three years. Take the Eagles plus the points!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6.5

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference last season. The Bengals net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens are +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play while the Ravens are ranked No. 21 this season. The Bengals are ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating while the Ravens are ranked No. 13. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase can't be stopped in the 4th quarter so the backdoor will always be open. Take the road dog! 

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-107)  (Scherzer/Anderson)

Max Scherzer will be pitching with one extra day of rest after complaining that his arm felt "dead". I'm sure he will pitch well enough until the bullpen takes over at some point. The Dodgers have played five one-run games this postseason. That's why I like the run line only laying -107. Great value in game six!

5*Minnesota -5

Last year, the Golden Gophers blew a 17-point lead at the end of the third quarter. Maryland won 45-44 as 17.5-point home underdogs. Maryland celebrated on the field without any fans. Minnesota was not happy and have circled this game. The Terrapins will be without both starting wide receivers from last year. Jeshaun Jones and Dontay Demus Jr. each had 100+ receiving yards and one TD. Not in this game. Maryland is also without their best linebacker. Minnesota has a solid backup RB to replace Potts who is out of the year.

All the advanced metrics point to the home team covering easily. Maryland is ranked No. 81 in total offense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 46 at Football Outsiders. Maryland is ranked No. 95 in total defense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 40 this season. Maryland is ranked No. 115 in special teams, while the Golden Gophers are ranked No. 43 this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 39 overall, while Maryland is ranked No. 91 this season. Minnesota has played the 26th-toughest schedule. Maryland has played the 48th-toughest. Maryland is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State of late. Maryland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. winning teams over the past eight tilts. Lets take the home team in this one!

5*Las Vegas Raiders +4

5*Detroit Lions +3.5

The Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four week span. The Lions are playing hard and will continue to play hard. They love their coach. The Lions will be getting back two key players. Expect WR Tyrell Williams and DE Kevin Strong to be activated after both starters went down with a concussion in week one. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against teams with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!  

4*Oklahoma State +5.5

Seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Texas defeated OK State 41-34 as 3.5 road underdogs, despite getting outgained 530-287 last season. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. That loss was followed by four more setbacks as the Cowboys' 2020 season spun out of control. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as underdogs. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one!

5*San Francisco 49ers +5.5

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as 6-point road underdogs last December with C. J Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Trey Lance which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget, the 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. The 49ers outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last week. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +3

This is one of the stronger technical plays in quite some time. Green Bay is favored from name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Bengals defense is ranked No. 5 (86.5) in opponent passer rating while Green Bay is ranked No. 18 (100.2). The Bengals are ranked No. 4 in special teams while Green Bay is ranked No. 19. The Packers will be missing numerous key personnel on defense which makes these stats even stronger. Joe Burrow's QBR is 53.8. Aaron Rogers' QBR is 55.8. Not much difference. Love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

4*Utah +3

Utah is allowing 4.1 yards per play while USC is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Utah will be playing this revenge game with two weeks to prepare. Utah is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS after their BYE week of late. Utah is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against the Pac-12 over the past three seasons. Utah is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. USC is just 5-8 ATS in that same role. Bottom line is we're getting 3 points with the better offensive line and better overall defense. Sign me up!

3*St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -105 (Wainwright/Scherzer)

Both starters come into this game with an ERA over 5.00 in their past three starts. All the pressure is on the home team after winning 106 games in the regular season. The Dodgers will be without All-Star Max Muncy, who led the team with 36 HR and 94 RBI. He's also a plus defender at first base. The LA Dodgers are not as deep in year's past, especially with Cody Bellinger hitting .165 with an OPS of .542 in 350 plate appearances. His WAR (wins above replacement) is -1.5 this season. Gut feeling says take Cardinals on the run line!

4*Carolina Panthers +5

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest at 1:05 PM E. Dallas is caught in a Philly/Carolina/NYG sandwich. Just seems like a bad spot to me. I have many notes going back to the early 2000's that says fade Dallas at home against winning teams when playing at 1:05 PM E. It's not a start time they are accustomed too. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third down conversion percentage. You know how intelligent of a head coach I believe Matt Rhule is. He won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against winning teams. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past seven October games. I think we're getting one point of value so lets grab the five points ASAP. 

4*New York Jets +7

The Titans are dealing with numerous injuries up and down the roster. It looks like AJ Brown and Julio Jones will be out. Even if those two play, it won't be at a high level. New York will able to focus on stopping D. Henry. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss scoring 0 points. Returning home is the key handicap. The Jets have a sneaky good defense especially against the run. The Jets are ranked No. 13 against the run while the Titans are ranked No. 24 at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is only ranked three spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Jets should be able to run the ball on this over-rated Titans' defense. That should open up some nice play-action completions for Wilson and company. The Jets are ranked No. 14 in special teams while Tennessee is ranked No. 27 thru three weeks. Take the Jets in this upset special! 

4*Arizona State +3.5

UCLA defeated the Sun Devils 25-18 last season despite getting outgained 442-363. Arizona State has the pieces to win this game outright. The Sun Devils are allowing 4.1 yards per play while UCLA is allowing 5.3 this season. DTR doesn't look 100% healthy to me. Fresno State is built very similar to Arizona State and the Bulldogs beat UCLA outright as 11-point dogs. The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in special teams. Love the coach (Herm Edwards) in revenge games. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Take the road dog!

4*Minnesota Vikings +2

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The Seahawks defeated the Vikings 27-26 as 6.5-point home chalk last year despite getting outgained 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 First down advantage too. After two games, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, than at home, now another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play against in game three. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams +1.5

Tampa Bay is 2-0 (at home) this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30+ points in nine straight games which is an NFL record. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. LA outgained TB 413-251. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. This will be the Buccaneers first game on Turf in quite some time, not to mention first game outside the Eastern Time Zone. Antonio Brown is OUT, who is a key weapon on the outside and running jet sweeps. Brady and company might be looking ahead to next week's date with the New England Patriots. Take the Rams in this upset maker!

5*Baylor Bears +7

Both teams step up in class this afternoon. I believe Baylor is underrated while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home dogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in their past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points. Try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Both teams are coming off week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as they looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback, while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 First downs while SF had 21. After week one, Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over SF. This will be the second straight road game for the 49ers after having played in a dome the week before. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average. San Francisco is learning a new defense going up against a duel-threat QB. Tough. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 underdogs over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC East of late. Lastly, the 49ers have two home games on deck against Green Bay and Seattle respectively. Take the home dog and try a slice on the money line too!

5*Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Saints are coming off a big upset victory against the Green Bay Packers. It was basically a BYE week as the Packers looked disengaged. Green Bay went 1-for-10 converting 3rd downs. This will be a completely different experience for the road team. It has been a crazy week around the Saints, dealing with coaches and one player in Covid-19 protocol. The Saints haven't had a "normal week" of practice since before Hurricane Ida. They are in Texas right now ahead of this game. The Saints will be without their starting Center (E. Mcoy) and backup Center. Tough. Carolina had 6 QB sacks against the Jets. This defense is very fast. Also Out for this game, Marshon Lattimore (CB) and Marcus Davenport (DE) with six more defenders listed questionable. The Saints swept the season series against the Panthers last season. Carolina did cover a 7-point road spread. Matt Rhule and company are taking this game very seriously. Take the generous 3.5 points and the money line (+160) as well!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I think the Las Vegas Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on MNF. Very emotional game for the silver and black. I think this Raiders' defense will have their hands full against a pissed off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Body Clock) against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, head coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career off a SU underdog win. Take the hungry host!

5*Fresno State +11

The Bulldogs have a big athletic offensive line and their defense can matchup with good teams in the PAC 12. Fresno State (+19.5) played Oregon down to the wire after the first quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained the Ducks 373-358 in a 7-point road loss. Jake Haener is completing 72.5% of his passes with a QBR of 72.5 for Fresno State. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 52.8% of his throws with a QBR of 66.6 this season. UCLA has their PAC-12 opener at Stanford next week and is coming off a BYE week. Undefeated teams are usually rusty when their BYE week occurs in September. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Memphis +3.5

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, trying to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the special teams advantage. The Bulldogs punter (T. Day) is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom third. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. More of the same in this one! 

5*Detroit Lions +7.5

The Detroit Lions have a very good offensive line. They will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I think Garoppolo and Lance splitting reps doesn't help either. This line is super inflated. Home teams getting 7+ points in week one has been very profitable. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

Wow! The Bills' hype is off the charts right now. They will be good, but lets slow down on all the Josh Allen MVP talk. Mike Tomlin is a master motivator, especially as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 7.5-point dogs. The Bills defeated the Steelers 26-15 as 2-point home chalk in week 14. That victory cost the Steelers a No. 2 seed last season. The Steelers have been waiting for this game. Love their defense. Take the generous 6.5 points!

5*Arkansas +7

Texas was very impressive in their home opener beating a really solid UL Lafayette team. Arkansas started very slow before imposing their will in the second half against Rice. The Razorbacks were looking ahead to this game. Texas is coming off an emotional win in Steve Sarkisian's debut. This is one of the biggest home games in recent memory for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS vs. the Big 12 since 1993. Line seems 1.5 points too high, so lets take the home dog in this one!

4*Texas San Antonio +5.5

Illinois is coming off a big upset win despite getting out-gained 392-326 last week. Texas State went 7-5 SU under first-year head coach Jeff Traylor, scoring 28.2 points per game (67th of 128) while allowing 25.7 (41 of 128). The Roadrunners are one of the most deepest teams with a plethora of returning talent. Illinois is 3-13 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the road dog!

4*West Virginia -3

Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in returning production. Maryland played just five games last season going 2-3. They need time to evolve. The Terrapins are running a new offense and defensive with two brand new coordinators installing new systems. I will look to back Maryland later in the season. West Virginia is ready to roll in this game. Take the road team!  

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 / -123 / (Fried/Scherzer)

The LA Dodgers are ranked No. 25 in batting average (.235) against left-handed starters this season. Max Fried has pitched great against the blue crew going 2-1 with an ERA around 2.00. Atlanta has performed better than most teams against the future Hall of Fame pitcher. Max allowed 4 ER in 6 IP earlier this season and 6 ER in 5.1 IP in 2020. The Braves No. 3 and No. 4 batters went a combined 0-for-8 in yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Dodgers have a ginormous series with the Giants on deck. I like the Braves on the run line!

4*Seattle Seahawks +5

The Broncos know who they want to start at QB in the regular season. They just haven't announced it publicly yet. I don't think their backup QB will play a lot. Might be a trade coming. The third string QB will see plenty of time in the 2nd half. Seattle will be playing its first game that will allow full capacity of fans since the pandemic. Big time home field edge, even in the preseason. The Broncos scored 33 points indoors and now travel once again to a hostile environment. If you play 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in the preseason, you're cashing around 60% over the past decade. Pete Carroll will be looking for a better defensive effort after allowing the Raiders to rush for 158 yards. This is a FG game either way so I'm taking the points! 

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

The Jaguars have a more experienced QB rotation which will be a key factor in the 2nd half. Jacksonville plays one home game this preseason and you can be sure the new brain-trust wants to put out a solid effort. Word out of Jacksonville is that the camp has been very competitive. I don't think the Browns have any interest traveling to Florida for this meaningless game. First-year head coaches (Urban Meyer) are 21-6 ATS in their first home game over the past four preseasons.

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130) (Woodruff/Muller)

The Brewers have scored well-above their season average in four straight games. Kyle Muller has never pitched against the Brewers. He looks to be the real deal. Milwaukee is batting .235 against left-handed starters this season. The Braves should keep this one close at a decent price.

5*Milwaukee Bucks -4

The Bucks return home after allowing 118 points in both games at Phoenix. The Bucks are 3-0 SU in game 3's this postseason. Role players perform better at home and I would expect the Bucks to play much better defense after reviewing the tape. The Bucks are 10-5 SU when playing with two days of rest while the Suns are 5-3 SU. Milwaukee has more experience playing with two days off. The Bucks are 33-11 SU at home. Take the hungry host!

5*Phoenix Suns -5.5

The Clippers look exhausted to me. Paul George and Reggie Jackson are playing heavy minutes. I think not having Kawhi Leonard will really hurt the Clippers in this game. Also, this will be their 14th game in 26 days. Tough. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Jae Crowder shot a combined 1-for-14 from beyond the arc. Look for a much better shooting performance in a convincing victory at home. Suns advance! 

5*LA Clippers +5.5

The Suns shot over 55% from the field in game one and won by just six points. The Clippers should make the necessary adjustments after seeing how the Suns played without Chris Paul. He's OUT again and the Clippers should keep this game close. I would not be surprised if the Clippers won outright.

5*Denver Nuggets +3

The Suns have won six straight playoff games, including all three against Denver. Phoenix came out with a lot of energy after watching the Nuggets' big man receive his MVP trophy. Visiting teams have struggled when playing the second of back-to-back games at Pepsi Center. I think the Nuggets win outright with a much more aggressive game plan!

5*LA Clippers +3

The Clippers blew a 60-47 halftime lead in game one. The Clippers and company should make the necessary adjustments after some film study. The big two shot 13-for-36 from the field and should be better in this game. The Clippers are 6-1 SU after a loss of four points or less. I like the Clippers in this spot.

4*Utah Jazz -3

The Clippers just played a seven-game series against a team that doesn't play defense. Only one day rest now playing at high-altitude against a well-rested Jazz team that is very good on defense. The Clippers seem to play better when their is urgency. The big two played heavy minutes in game six and seven. I like the Jazz in this spot!

4*LA Lakers -2

The Lakers return home after a non-effort in game five. I have to believe the Lakers will bounce back with or without Anthony Davis. Frank Vogel called out his team and LeBron James is 4-1 after a 30+ point loss in his career. Closeout games are tough, especially for young teams. Take the hungry host!

3*Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Jazz scored 141 points and now must play on the road. Tough. The Grizzlies have played two very tight games against a healthy Jazz roster during the regular season. This shows me that Memphis does match-up well against the Jazz. The Grizzlies are 15-5 ATS after a double digit loss this season. I'll take a shot with the home underdog in this one!

4*LA Clippers -2

The Mavs have shot over 50% from the field in both victories. The Clippers should be able to make the necessary adjustments after dropping the first two games of the series. Kawhi Leonard's teams have always played well after losing two straight in the postseason. I like the road team in game three!

5*Memphis Grizzlies -3.5

The Grizzlies went 2-1 against the Spurs this season with the one loss back in December. In the past two victories, the Grizzlies covered the spread by a combined 55.5 points. Memphis shot 24% (6 of 25) from beyond the Arc in Sunday's loss at Golden State. Ja Morant shot 33.3% (7 of 21) from the field. I would expect a much better effort at home.The Grizzlies are 10-4 SU after a loss of 10-19 points this season. In the past five games, Memphis has a +5.8 point differential while San Antonio has a -6.8 point differential. I'm taking the home team in this one!

4*Memphis Grizzlies +4

Memphis was in a similar situation last year in the bubble, needing to win the regular-season finale over Milwaukee to earn a spot in the play-in game against Portland. The Grizzlies beat the Bucks 119-106 to get in. The winner of this game will secure the 8th seed in the West. I like the road team in this spot!

4*LA Lakers +8

These are important games for the Lakers as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. The Lakers are ranked third in defense. Big rivalry and I believe this one will be closer than the line suggests.

4*Dallas Mavericks +3.5

The Mavericks shot 17.1% from three-point point land in Sunday's loss against Sacramento. That's their lowest percentage since 2018. The Miami Heat have shot over 50% from the field in three straight games. I like the road team in this spot!

4*LA Lakers +4

The Lakers have lost three in a row while the Nuggets have won nine of their past 10 games. The Lakers have the size to match-up against Denver. I know the Lakers are pissed off and want to end its losing streak tonight. Getting four points at home seems like a gift even if James sits out. 

5*Dallas Mavericks -5

The Mavericks have already defeated the Wizards in Washington (109-87) this season back in early April, easily covering the 6-point spread. The Wizards will be playing back-to-back to games (6-9 SU) and fifth game in seven days. Tough. Washington is coming off two wins where they shot over 50% from the field. Dallas is 12-4 in the past 16 meetings and I expect more of the same in this one. Take the Mavs! 

4*New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans are coming off a big win against the Clippers. They are playing for their playoff lives with 11 games remaining. New Orleans has already won at Denver this season when the Nuggets were at full strength. Denver is coming off two wins where they shot the lights out. Take the Pelicans!

4*LA Lakers +2

The Lakers dropped a tough one to the Mavs, committing 16 turnovers on Thursday. The Mavs will be playing their third game in four nights. The Lakers are 11-3 SU after allowing 115+ points this season. Frank Vogel has been excellent in same-season revenge games. Take the Lakers!

4*Sacramento Kings +2.5

The Wizards conclude their long road trip against a team that's desperate for a win. Wrong team favored. Take the hungry host!

4*USC +9

I think the Trojans match-up fairly well with the Zags. USC will be the toughest test for the undefeated juggernaut so far in the tourney. This should be a closer game than the line suggests so lets take the points. 

3*Syracuse +6.5

Houston has played one of the easiest schedules in all of College hoops. The Cougars haven't looked great in "big" games, and needed a huge rally midway thru the 2nd half against Rutgers. Syracuse is on a 6-0 ATS run, winning fives games outright. The Orange are 13-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. On the flip side, Houston is 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. My only concern is that the public is betting the Orange in a big way. Light play on the underdog!

4*Syracuse +4

The line has now inflated to where I think Syracuse is the right side. The 2-3 zone can be difficult to prepare for if you don't have a lot of time. Over the past five games, Syracuse has a +9.2 point differential while WV has a +2.6 point differential. The underdog is 4-1 ATS past five meetings. Take the points!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Grizzlies return home after dropping two straight on the road. Miami shot the lights out in yesterday's home victory. The Heat will playing its third game in four days and Jimmy Butler has a very sore ankle. I like the home team!

4*Memphis Grizzlies +3

The Grizzlies have a game in hand as they played and looked impressive on Wednesday. The Nuggets haven't played since winning at Indiana on March 4th. Denver is 0-2 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest this season. Memphis is as close to full strength as they have been all season. The Grizzlies are 24-11 ATS against the Northwest division over the past three seasons. Take the home underdog in this one!

4*Florida Atlantic +4

The Florida Atlantic Owls are riding a four game winning streak, and they're winning their last five games by an average of 8.8 points while shooting 46.2 percent from the field. This lined opened at -2 and has steamed up to this current number. I like the underdog!

4*Michigan State +8.5

The Spartans return home after getting crushed 69-50 against Michigan on Thursday. The Wolverines clinched the conference title and have nothing to play for. Michigan State shot 36.5% from the field and missed all nine 3-point attempts. Tom Izzo should have his troops ready for this rematch. It's a big game for the home team if they want to secure a spot in the Big Dance.

5*Loyola Marymount +2

The Lions are 2-0 against SF this season and will be playing with extra rest. ULM is 7-1 when playing with three or more days of rest this season. San Francisco has played four more games than the Lions including a win over San Diego on Thursday. I think the wrong team is favored. Take the points!

4*Indiana +3.5

The most recent time the two teams played, Rutgers posted a 74-70 victory on Jan. 24, winning at Assembly Hall for the first time in program history. Rutgers' Myles Johnson bottled up Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, holding the Hoosiers' top scorer to 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting from the field while forcing him into four turnovers. I like Indiana plus the points in the rematch.

5*Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

This will be the Suns' third game in four days after crushing New Orleans on Friday and whipping Memphis on Saturday. Phoenix covered the spread by a whopping 39 points combined. The Suns made a franchise-record 24 3-pointers in defeating the Grizzlies. They also held Memphis to just 97 points. It's really tough to sustain that type of defensive effort especially with short rest. Portland is coming off a 118-111 home loss to the Wizards. Damian Lillard shot 10-for-30 from the field. I like the road dog in this spot! 

4*Southern Illinois -1

The Salukis have been waiting for this game ever since the schedule came out. On Feb. 12th 2020, Valparaiso defeated Southern Illinois 55-38. The 38 points were a season and all-time school low. Valpo has a -6.3 point differential on the road while the Salukis have a +3.0 point differential at home. The Crusaders are 1-6 straight-up when playing with three days rest and 3-10 SU in road games. Southern Illinois is 28-14 SU when installed as a favorite over the past three seasons. I will swallow the 1 point with the home team in this spot. 

4*Duke +2 (+100)

I know that Virginia has not lost back-to-back games all season and on paper they should roll. Duke is playing much better and needs a signature win against a ranked opponent to have any chance at making the postseason. Athletically, the Blue Devils can match-up pretty well and are obviously well-coached. They have lost a lot of close games this season. I think they are on the improve. This seems like the trap line of the year so far. Take the hungry host!

3*New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

Both teams are coming off tough losses. This will be the first road game in 16 days for the Suns. The Pelicans played one of their best games in defeating Phoenix on that night. The Suns have a -0.3 point differential on the road while New Orleans has a +4.2 point differential at home. I just like how the Pelicans match-up with these Suns right now. Take the points!

4*Georgia +3.5

The Bulldogs are coming off a blowout loss allowing 115 points. Coach and team should learn from that non-effort. I think Georgia matches-up well against Missouri. Take the home dog!

5*Portland Trail Blazers +5

The Dallas Mavs scored a season-high 143 points (58.3% from the field) against the Pelicans. It marked the second straight game shooting over 50% from the field. They also shot 55.6% from 3-point land making 25 of 45. They also committed just six turnovers. I always look to fade NBA teams that scored 140 or more points. Dallas is 6-10 ATS after scoring 130+ points over the past three seasons, including 0-1 this year. Portland keeps this one close!

5*Michigan State +5

The Spartans lost to Iowa less than two weeks and head coach Tom Izzo has been great at same-season revenge games in his tremendous career. Michigan State is trying to climb back into the NCAAB Tournament picture and a win today would go a long way in achieving that. The Spartans are 8-2 at home allowing 66.4 points per game. Iowa is 3-4 on the road allowing 80.4 points per game. Take the home dog!

4*New Orleans Pelicans +3

Both teams are playing good ball having won four of their past five. The Pelicans should be super focused knowing the Mavericks won all four meetings last season. New Orleans is coming off a loss in which the Bulls made a franchise-record 25 3-pointers (in 47 attempts). Dallas overcame a 13-point third-quarter deficit, holding Atlanta to just 27 points on 9-of-22 shooting in the final quarter. New Orleans has a big edge in rebounds and I really like them in this spot. Take the road dog! 

4*George Tech +4

Virginia is coming off a lights out shooting performance from field and beyond the arch. Georgia Tech is averaging about five more points per game and should be pumped-up playing a ranked rival at home. Take the points!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103)

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24, which is notable, because the team that won the regular season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. Check this out! No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's O'line is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay's defensive line is ranked first while the Chiefs' defensive line is ranked 25th. Overall team defense, TB checks in fifth while KC is ranked 22nd. I can't ignore the fact that KC is ranked dead last in red zone defense, by a significant margin. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS when playing on a grass field while Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS on that same surface. Tom Brady knows how to win Super Bowls and we're getting 3 to 3.5 points at their home stadium. Take the hungry host!

3*Georgia Tech -3

Notre Dame is coming off two very impressive wins, shooting over 50% while covering the spread by a combined 45 points. Georgia Tech shot 32.4% from the field and just 66.7% from the free-throw stripe in losing at Louisville on Monday. The Fighting Irish are 7-34 straight-up as an underdog over the past three seasons. This is a great spot to back the home team!

3*Toronto Raptors +5

The Nets are coming off an emotional bounce-back effort (shot 57% from the field) against the Clippers after having previously lost to the lowly Wizards. New Jersey is 0-4 ATS after covering the spread of late. The Public is backing the Nets in a big way based on Toronto sweeping the Nets in the bubble last August. I will take the points with the more efficient defensive squad. The Nets have a big game against Philadelphia tomorrow. Light play on the road team!

4*Maryland -1

Purdue is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time this season. They are coming off a big win against Minnesota covering the spread by 16.5 points. Purdue does most of its damage on the road. Maryland should be pumped-up, playing a ranked opponent at home with extra rest. 

3*Buffalo -2

The Bulls are ranked first in total rebounds while the Bobcats are ranked 264th. Ohio is 9-22 SU on the road over the past three seasons and 0-3 SU after winning two in a row this year. Ohio is 0-3 SU off a win against a conference rival. I will swallow the two points with the home team.

4*Ohio State +5

The Buckeyes are coming off a really bad shooting performance from three-point land and the free throw line in a 67-65 loss vs. Purdue. Wisconsin is coming off its best defensive performance allowing just 52 points against Northwestern. Before that, they allowed 54 points in defeating Rutgers. This line seems inflated to me so I'm taking OSU plus the points.

4*LSU -1

Alabama is coming off a 31-point victory. LSU can match-up very well so I will swallow the 1-point with the home team.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+102)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus like no other in this game. They should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only 3 points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus -3 turnover margin in the first game and Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions in game two. The Saints held the Bears to a 10% conversion rate on 3rd down last week. I don't see that happening in this game. Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense especially with very little crowd noise to deal with. The Bucs have a +0.9 net yard differential while the Saints check in at +0.5. The Saints point differential is +9.2 while Tampa Bay checks in at +8.5. Finally, the Saints are ranked 29th in red-zone defense which is the second worst mark of all remaining playoff teams. Take Tampa Bay plus the points risking no juice.