5*Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-103)

I think the Ravens wanted to play the Titans after losing to them earlier this year in overtime (blew a 21-10 3rd quarter lead) and in last year's playoffs. Don't forget, Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that playoff game. The Titans also recovered three of their own three fumbles in that 28-12 victory. This is not the same Titans defense. A stop unit that is ranked 29th in total defense and 30th in sacks with just 19. On the flip side, the Ravens are ranked 9th in total defense and 13th in sacks with 39 according to Football Outsiders. Special teams really matters in the postseason. The Ravens are ranked 2nd while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Ravens net yard differential is +0.7 while Tennessee's is +0.3. The Titans pass defense is allowing 7.0 pass yards per attempt which ranks dead last of all the playoff teams. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in third-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd.

The Titans have played 7 games in 7 weeks, with Derrick Henry receiving a huge workload, to the tune of 34 carries and 250 rushing yards last week to surpass 2000 for the season. Tennessee never really had a normal BYE week due to Covid-19. The Ravens are a bit more fresh having played just 6 games in 7 weeks. The Titans went 1-3 SU since week eight when facing QB's with a QBR of 70 or above at the start of the game. Baltimore's point differential is +10.3 while the Titans are +3.2. I think this line should be 4.5 to 5. The Titans have cluster injuries on their offensive line with Saffold, Wilson, Sambralio, and Lewan likely out. I will swallow 3.5 points and take the better team with the hungry Ravens.

4*Richmond -4

The Spiders are coming off a loss in which they shot just 25% for 3-point land at home. Two home games ago, they shot 28% from downtown. They have played a much tougher schedule than Rhode Island and the Spiders average 34% from beyond the stripe. I think they will shoot better against a Rams' defense allowing close to 80 points in road games. Take the Spiders!

3*LA Rams +3 (+103)

The Rams will start John Wolford at QB and he's got some running ability. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defending mobile QB's this season. That have no game tape on him. Advantage Rams. Wolford has been in McVay's system for two years and Aaron Donald thinks he will play well after seeing his preparation and practice every day for over two years. The Rams are ranked 4th in third-down defense and 2nd in opponent passer rating. The Rams are ranked 2nd in penalties committed while the Cardinals are ranked 32nd. The Rams are 3-1 SU after two or more consecutive losses under McVay and they lost their last home game to the Jets as 17-point chalk. Arizona is 1-4 ATS against winning teams this season. I have herd rumblings that Kyler Murray and the head coach (Kingsbury) are butting heads. I'll take the points with the Rams in what amounts to a playoff game.

5*NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have a lot of seniors and this team is very excited for this opportunity. NC State owns the better stats, and they are ranked much higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. In fact, the Wildcats are allowing more yards than they gain. Red flag. Kentucky's four wins have come against teams that are a combined 8-31. NC State is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on grass fields while Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on that same surface this season. The Wolfpack have significant edges in the kicking game and red zone efficiency. Take the points in this upset maker!

5*Army +7.5

The Black Knights are seeking their third straight 10-win season in the Liberty Bowl. Army's offensive line is ranked 52nd while West Virginia's O'line is ranked 113th at Football Outsiders. On defense, Army is ranked 2nd overall. They also own the fifth-best defensive line in all of College Football. That's a great combo to have in a bowl game. There is a 75% chance for moderate to heavy rain which favors the team that runs the ball at a high level. West Virginia is ranked 120th in penalties (8.4 per game) while Army is ranked 24th (4.8) this season. The Mountaineers are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Army is a nifty 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in all bowl games. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Oklahoma +3

The Sooners have a Top 10 defensive line and the better overall defense. This line is too high. Oklahoma's passer rating against is ranked 20th while the Gators' passer rating against is ranked 93rd. This has been a strong angle in these Power 5 bowl games of late. Florida will be without All-American TE Kyle Pitts and his 700+ yards receiving with 12 TD's. There is also a lot of chatter that more Gators will be skipping this game. The Sooners lost their Bowl game 63-28 to LSU last season. Look for them to be pumped-up in what should amount to a home game. Take Oklahoma +3 and try a slice on the money line. (+150)  

10*Green Bay Packers -3

The Titans have scored 30+ points in five straight games and now must play their 4th road game in six weeks. The Titans have won and covered two in a row defeating cupcakes Detroit and Jacksonville. They now take a huge jump up in class. The Packers are motivated wanting a first round BYE and Green Bay scored just 3 points in the second half of last week's win over Carolina. Green Bay is ranked 9th in sacks (38) while Tennessee is ranked 32nd with just 14 QB take downs. Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball fairly easy against a not so good Titans' secondary. The Packers are ranked 18th in total defense while Tennessee is ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. Green Bay is ranked 10th in 3rd-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd. The Titans are ranked 29th in special teams and will have to play with a 50% chance of snow showers in the forecast. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 44 in games when the kick-off temp is below 40 degrees. The Titans converted 81.8% on 3rd down last week. These teams are fade bait the very next week especially against a quality opponent. The Packers are 19-9 SU and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. I love the cheese heads in this one!

4*Denver Broncos +6

The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in five straight games, including last Sunday's (night) thrilling win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a big division game on deck against New England. The Broncos are a sneaky good team ranking #1 in red-zone defense. Drew Lock is coming off his best performance of his career throwing 4 TD's at Carolina. I think he can ride that momentum into this contest. The Bills have played just three games on grass this season going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Broncos are 6-3 ATS on that same surface and 7-2 ATS against the AFC. Take the home dog!

4*Oregon +3.5

USC is coming off an emotional comeback victory against cross-town rival UCLA. The Trojans were outgained by 105 yards. I love playing on College football underdogs with the significantly better offensive line. Oregon's offensive line is ranked 31 while USC is ranked 105 by Football Outsiders. Oregon is averaging 7.3 yards per play while USC is averaging 5.8 this season. On defense, the Ducks are allowing 5.7 yards per play while USC allows 5.8. That means Oregon has a +1.6 yards per play while USC is even. The Trojans are likely to be without their top running back (knee injury) and they have trouble gaining yards on the ground to begin with. The Ducks are 5-0 SU after a BYE week over the past three seasons. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

4*LA Chargers +2.5

The Falcons are coming off a revenge game against New Orleans having played them two weeks prior. Atlanta's next three games are against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay again. Seems like a flat spot especially since the LA Chargers are coming off their worse loss (45-0) in franchise history. The Falcons committed just one penalty last week. I don't see that happening again. The Falcons' defense was on the field for 75 plays against New Orleans. They now must fly out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 19th. Atlanta likes to throw the ball a lot which is LAC's strength. The Chargers are ranked 6th, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Falcons are ranked 30th, allowing 285 passing yards per game. The Chargers are ranked 13th in red-zone defense while Atlanta is ranked 30th in that same category. The Chargers are allowing 5.5 yards per play (15th) on defense while the Falcons are allowing 6.2 (tied for last). I would expect a much better effort for the home team from what we witnessed against the Patriots. Take the points!  

5*Cleveland Browns +6

The Titans are coming off an emotional revenge blowout win against the Colts. They were all in having lost two weeks prior. To show you how focused the Titans were last week check this out. Tennessee is ranked 16th in opponent yards per rush (4.3), however last week they allowed just 2.7 yards per rush against a solid rushing and well-coached team. The Browns are ranked 19th in team defense while the Titans are ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. The Titans are ranked 29th in QB sacks (14) while the Browns are ranked 12th in sacks (27) this season. Tennessee is ranked #32 in third-down defense. A big reason why they are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The Titans have eight wins and the combined record of those eight teams is 40-47. Finally, last season in week 1 the Titans put a whipping on Cleveland 43-13 as 5.5-point road underdogs. Tennessee covered the spread by 35.5 points. The Browns actually outgained Tennessee 346-339. Baker Mayfield had 3 interceptions. The Browns have a much better coach and scheme this season. Take the road dog in this revenge spot!

5*Arkansas +3.5

Arkansas has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after dropping a 10-point decision last season. This year, the Razorbacks have a real QB. Feleipe Franks is completing 68% of his passes with a 17-4 TD to interception ratio. Missouri is coming off a 41-0 shellacking against Vanderbilt. The Tigers committed just 1 penalty for the entire game. That won't happen again. Missouri is 4-5 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins since 2018. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS L4 off a loss against a conference rival. Missouri is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in December games since 1993. Arkansas has the better offensive line ranking #69 while the Tigers are ranked #105 at Football Outsiders. Arkansas has a +0.6 yard differential while Missouri is just +0.1. Overall, the Razorbacks are ranked 48th while Missouri is ranked 67th at FO. This will be the Razorbacks last regular season game of the year while Missouri plays Vanderbilt again next week. Take the road dog!

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

The 49ers have two weeks to prepare against a division rival while the Rams will be playing on a short week after an upset win on MNF. A lot of bettors will take the Rams saying they have revenge. I'm not. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach and has been great as an underdog in the division. I think this line is too high in my opinion. Should be closer to 5.5 points. Don't forget, the 49ers are ranked 7th in third-down defense which is key in covering spreads. San Francisco has some Covid concerns but will get some talented players back as well. Take the points!

4*Atlanta Falcons +5

The Falcons are very familiar with Jameis Winston at the QB position after spending his entire career with Tampa Bay. I always like getting points with the more efficient QB. Matt Ryan is ranked #6 in QBR (78.1) this season. Atlanta has two weeks to prepare for this division game. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite of any kind. The Saints defeated SF 27-13 last week while getting outgained by 44 yards. SF also had a 21-17 edge in first downs. The 49ers committed 4 turnovers otherwise it would have been a different result. Atlanta is ranked 8th in third-down defense while the Saints are ranked 22nd. Lets take the points in this upset maker. 

4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams -1

Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Dolphins 28-17 despite outgaining the fish by 326 yards. The Rams have allowed just 10 sacks while Seattle has allowed 24 sacks. The Rams are ranked #1 in opponent yards per play (4.7) while Seattle is ranked #28 (6.2) this season. The Rams are ranked 3rd in third-down defense while Seattle checks in at #24. The Rams are ranked 10th in third-down offense while Seattle is ranked 30th, which is quite surprising. LAR has outgained the Seahawks in the past six meetings going 4-2 SU during that span. The Rams are ranked #5 (84.2) in passer rating against while Seattle is ranked #23 (98.2). Seattle is not the same on offense without Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Both are out again. They also have an injury list longer than my recent CVS receipt. In this division game, take the home team with the far superior defense and two weeks to prepare. 

5*Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Arizona dropped a tough one last week 34-31 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 130 yards. The Cardinals have scored 30+ points in four straight games. Buffalo is coming off its biggest win of the season and must now travel out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 13th. The Bills also lost two key offensive lineman in that big win. The Cardinals own the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. Arizona is ranked 7th in third-down defense while the Bills are ranked 23rd. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in passer rating against while the Bills are ranked 20th. Arizona is ranked 10th in total defense while the Bills are ranked 17th at Football Outsiders. I like the Cardinals to bounce back at home against a Bills' team off an emotional victory. 

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The Dolphins are coming off a phony victory against the Rams. LA outgained Miami 471-145 and had 31 first downs compared to just 8 for the Dolphins. The Rams ran 92 plays and Miami must face an offense ranked 3rd in yards per game (424.6). Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. Tough spot for the Dolphins defense. Tua needs more time (reps) and his first road start against a rested well-prepared team does not bode well. The Cardinals are 7-3 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. This squad seems to be on a mission right now. Both teams are in the top 5 in third down defense, however Arizona is ranked 13th in third down offense, while Miami checks in at 29th. The Dolphins' offensive line and defensive line are both ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. Miami is 3-10 SU in games played on artificial/field turf of late. Lay it!

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+105)

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing setback at the hands of the KC Chiefs. I believe the 43 points were the most allowed by a team coached (Head, Defense) by Vic Fangio. Also, draw a line in Drew Lock's performance as he's never played well in the snow. It will be a much nicer day in Denver with temps in the low 60s. Actually, the Broncos outgained KC  411-286, but committed 4 turnovers. Denver ran 76 plays while the Chiefs ran just 51. Denver's defense should be relatively fresh. The Broncos are ranked 4th in third down defense in all of football. The Chargers ran 77 plays on offense in beating Jacksonville and now must play a pissed off Broncos team at high altitude. Tough. Finally, The Broncos have a passer rating against of 78.2 while the Chargers have a passer rating against of 100.1. Take the Broncos plus the generous 3 points with plus juice.  

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

10*Carolina Panthers +7.5

Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining Chicago by 42 yards. Carolina is averaging 6.0 yards per play while the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per play. On defense, Carolina is allowing 5.5 yards per play while New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Saints swept the Panthers last season, although Carolina did cover a 7-point spread rather easily in New Orleans. That was "back in the day" when stadiums would be packed with fans. This game will have no fans and this spread is way too high. I have it at 6 so we are getting 1.5 points of value. Carolina has a really good coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The new scheme on offense with Mike Davis at RB has been confusing opponents. Here's what I really like about this matchup and current line. Carolina's defense is holding opposing QB's to a 86.2 passer rating which ranks 6th. On the flip side, New Orleans is allowing a 108.2 passer rating against which ranks 29th. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the past five meeting. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the past three years. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host! 

10*Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State returns home after a blowout loss in which they scored just two points. It was very misleading as they outgained Kentucky by 138 yards, but committed 6 turnovers. Mississippi State has outgained all three foes by a combined 470 yards this season. Texas A&M is coming off their first home win over a Top 5 ranked team since 2002. The Bulldogs are +1.2 in net yard differential while the Aggies are -0.1. Mississippi State is allowing 4.0 yards per play which ranks 5th in the nation. Texas A&M is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play. Mike Leach called out his team for that sloppy performance last week. The Aggies beat Mississippi State 49-30 last year while outgaining the Bulldogs by just 8 yards. The difference was a -3 turnover ratio for Mississippi State. Texas A&M defeated Vanderbilt by only 5 points as 31-point chalk earlier this season. Take the Bulldogs in this upset maker!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

I would normally look to play on teams that just fired their head coach. Most of the time those teams are underdogs. I don't think this Houston team is happy about the change. Romeo Crennel is 28-55 SU as a head coach in his career. The Jaguars have the better offensive and defensive lines according to Football Outsiders. I'm taking the points with the road team.

5*Syracuse +2.5

My power rating in this game has the home team as 1-point chalk. I think the Orange have the better offense and defense. Don't forget Syracuse defeated Duke last year by a wide margin as 9-point road underdogs. No revenge here. I think Syracuse is the smart side in this one!

5*Miami Dolphins +7

The Dolphins will have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Seattle is coming off two emotional prime-time victories and now must travel East for the second time this season. The Seahawks have been outgained in every game this season despite winning three one-possession games. Seattle has a long injury list to key players. They won't be 100% even if they play in the heat and humidity that is South Florida. Seattle is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so far this season. Playing against these teams in week four would make you a lot of money. Russell Wilson has a QBR of 86.2. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 81. Take the Dolphins plus the points in this upset maker!

4*LA Lakers -4.5

The Lakers played a tougher schedule and had the much better road record. They also possess two of the Top 5 players in all of basketball right now. The Heat are a younger team in terms of postseason experience. I think the Lakers are the right side in game one.

4*Carolina Panthers +6.5

The Panthers are hungry for a win knowing they have dropped 10 straight games dating back to last season. Carolina played well in last week's setback outgaining TB 427-339. Four turnovers did not help. Teams usually are fired-up in the very next game after a star player (Christian Mccaffrey) gets hurt. The best handicap is the fact LAC just played an emotional OT game against a division rival. The Chargers ran 79 plays on offense while the defense allowed KC to run 70 plays. Tough. Head coach Anthony Lynn said "Justin Herbert was the backup for a reason". I would expect some growing pains in this game. Sure seems like a letdown spot to me. To back that up, the Chargers are 1-4-0 ATS in games after playing the KC Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under center (2017-2019). Last year, they played in week 17 which explains only 5 games with no pushes. Take the Panthers plus the points in this upset maker!

3*New York Giants +4

I like the Giants at home even without RB Barkley. I actually think their offense will be better for at least one game. The 49ers have numerous injuries including QB Jimmy G. Backup Nick Mullins has not had much practice time. Take the home dog!

3*LA Lakers -6.5

The Lakers didn't play well in game two evident by 23 turnovers for the game. I think the Nuggets are deflated after blowing that victory. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS after a close win (1-4 points) while the Nuggets are 3-5-1 ATS after a close loss. The Lakers are super focused and should win by margin tonight.

4*Miami Dolphins +6

The Dolphins return home after allowing 217 rushing yards against the Patriots with a minus -3 turnover differential. Still, it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. This team is well-coached and I would expect a much better effort. Buffalo defeated Miami in both games last season and should be pumped-up at home. Speaking of home, the Bills will have to play in the heat & humidity that is South Florida, with an expected heat index of 100-104 throughout the game. This will be a factor because the Bills ran a league-high 81 plays on offense last week against the Jets, while possessing the ball for 41:17. Both those numbers are insanely high. There is also a 55% chance of thunderstorms. Take the Dolphins plus the points!

3*Boston Celtics -1.5

Miami has had a relatively easy journey in these playoffs while the Celtics are battle tested. The Heat have not played since 9/8/20. Advantage Boston in this first game. Lay it!

5*Arizona Cardinals +7

The 49ers are a tad overrated in my opinion while the Cardinals are a tad underrated. Arizona looks improved on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons all over the field. San Francisco has to deal with the Super Bowl loser hangover. Tough. They are really "nicked" up to start the season with a long injury list. This is another division underdog in week one that looks solid.

4*Washington Football Team +6

Washington should be improved on defense with Ron Rivera taking over. This team sports 5 first-round picks on the D-line. In week one, you want to take NFL underdogs that missed the playoffs against playoff teams from the previous year. It's one of the best angles in all of sports! Also, I like playing division dogs in the opening week. Take Washington plus the points.

3*Toronto Raptors +3 (+100)

The Raptors shot just 13 free throws in their game five debacle. I would expect the defending world champs to play with a "chip" on its shoulder to force a game seven. Take the Raptors!

10*Denver Nuggets +3

The Jazz have won two in a row while shooting the lights out. Utah shot 51.7% and 51.2% from the field respectively. The Jazz also shot close to 49% from 3-point land on Friday. Denver committed a bubble-high 17 turnovers and should benefit from the return of Gary Harris Jr. The Nuggets are ranked #1 in assist/turnover margin and these teams rarely drop three games in a row in the postseason. I'm all over the Nuggets in this spot!

4*Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

Oklahoma City does have a modest history on its side in terms of a potential Game 3 turnaround. The Thunder have won Game 3 in each of the five previous instances in which they fell into an 0-2 series hole, even rallying to take the 2012 Western Conference Finals against San Antonio. The Thunder are also 9-2 SU after a loss of 10 points or more this season. Take the Thunder in this must win game!

5*Dallas Mavs +5.5

The Mavs have already defeated the Bucks earlier this season in Milwaukee. The Bucs shot over 50% in their last game while the Mavs allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% in their last game. Take the Mavs plus the points.

3*Indiana Pacers +1.5

5*Dallas Mavericks +3

The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses in their past 7 games. Denver is coming off a victory against the short-handed Bucks. Dallas is coming off two straight losses after two straight victories. The Mavs are currently in the 7th spot out West. Denver plays much better at home as their 0.0 point differential shows. Dallas plays well at home sporting a +6.0 point differential. Both teams won on the road in the previous two meetings, with both games decided by a combined 4 points. I like the Mavs in this spot!

5*LA Lakers -1

Giannis made a career high five 3-pointers in the first meeting which the Bucks won. Bench players play better at home. I love the Lakers in this rematch. I know they really want to avenge its loss at Milwaukee. The Bucks are leaking oil as they got crushed by Miami and fell behind Indiana by 24 points before making a comeback. Take the hungry host!

5*Notre Dame +2

The Fighting Irish match-up pretty well with this FSU squad as the Seminoles won 85-84 earlier this year. Notre Dame is coming off a poor effort in which head coach Mike Brey called out his team for its performance. The Fighting Irish are 9-1 at home after a loss this season and rank #1 in Assist/Turnover ratio in the nation. Take the hungry host!

4*Toledo Rockets -2.5

The Rockets have the much better stats and they are playing at home. Ball State is a flawed team. Take the hungry host!

4*Oklahoma +2.5

Texas Tech is coming off an 87-57 victory against Iowa State, covering the spread by +25 points.The Sooners have lost three straight and played Texas Tech close in the first meeting. Huge game for Oklahoma. This game will be played in an NBA arena (OKC Thunder) and really like the home team in this spot!

5*Portland T-Blazers -4.5

Detroit traded away former franchise center Andre Drummond prior to the All-Star break and reached a buyout agreement with veteran point guard Reggie Jackson during the break, leaving Derrick Rose, John Henson, Tony Snell and Langston Galloway as the only healthy veterans drawing regular minutes. They also released (buyout) Markief Morris (LA Lakers) and some size for rim protection. The Pistons are in full tank mode while Portland comes in off a poor defensive effort at home. Swallow the 4.5 points. Take the hungry host!

5*Memphis +2.5

Huge game for Memphis as they gout ousted by Houston in last year's AAC tournament. The game was real close. Houston is coming off a 76-43 victory with an ATS margin of 22.5 points. They are in a real letdown spot. I know this game means more for the home team. Take the points!

5*Oklahoma City Thunder -1

The Thunder were just 11-14 after losing at Denver 110-102 in December. They have since gone 22-8, having won 10 of 13 before the break. This is a completely different team schematically and the Nuggets won't be able to adjust tonight. Take the home team! 

5*St. John's +2.5

I have this game closer to pick em so let's take the generous 2.5 points. A Red Storm outright win would not shock me. Take the underdog!

4*SMU +2

3*Golden State Warriors +7.5

5*Indiana U -1.5

The Hoosiers have dropped three straight and should be super focused at home in this spot. Purdue defeated Iowa 104-68 on Wednesday. The 36-point victory was the largest in school history over a ranked opponent. Purdue shot 63.1% from the field and 55.9% from 3-point land. Purdue covered the spread by +31.5 points. Classic fade bait. How much energy can Purdue put out considering they are 2-6 on the road this season. Also, the road team is just 3-3 SU when playing with two days of rest this season. The Hoosiers are 9-4 SU when playing with three or more days of rest. Take the hungry host!

5*DePaul +1

Xavier is coming off it's biggest win of their season against Seton Hall on Saturday shooting over 50%. DePaul has a talented team and really needs a victory. DePaul has played better than their conference record suggests. They rank high in rim protection and will be pumped-up at home. Like them here.

4*Pennsylvania +1.5

5*Portland T-Blazers +2

Seems like a great sport for Portland as they've been off for two days while the Rockets will be playing it's third game in four days. I like Portland!

4*Northern Illinois -3.5

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

4*Indiana -2

5*Memphis Tigers -3.5

Memphis returns home off a 40-point loss shooting 28.6% and just 9% from downtown. All season lows. It's the worst loss by a ranked team against an unranked opponent since 1993. I would expect a huge bounce back effort against a division rival.

10*Arkansas State +2.5

This will be the first road game for South Alabama in 12 days. This is also a big revenge game for the Red Wolves as they committed 18 turnovers in a loss earlier this month. In that game, South Alabama shot 35 free throws (making 25) compared to just 13 attempts for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves should be super focused at home in a big revenge spot. The Red Wolves are 6-2 SU against winning teams this season and 13-5 ATS overall. They are undervalued in this spot. The Jaguars are 7-26 SU on the road over the past three seasons. The home team is 6-1 ATS past seven meetings. I'll take the home underdog!

4*Temple +2.5

4*Georgetown +4.5

4*LSU -2.5

4*Washington Wizards +4.5

5*Clemson +6.5

This feels like a lot of points to me considering the look ahead line was a near pick em. Also, consider the fact that Clemson has the much better defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play. LSU is allowing 5.1 yards per play. I'll take the generous 6.5 points with a stud QB and tremendous head coach. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six Championship games and this is the longest time between the semi finals and Championship in playoff format history.

4*Seattle Seahawks +4.5

The Packers have the better stats in offensive and defensive line play, but it's hard to ignore the fact in QBR comparison. QBR is a percentage so 50 would be average. Russell Wilson's QBR is 69.8 (6th) while Aaron Rodgers is 50.8 (20th) this season. It's been quite some time that any QB with a QBR of less than 55 in the regular season has reached the conference finals. Seattle is ranked two spots higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. I think this will be a very close game so I'm taking the points.

4*Boston College +3.5

4*Dallas Mavericks -3

4*Sacramento Kings -2.5

5*Buffalo Bills +3

The Texans are allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense while the Bills are allowing 5.1 yards per play. The league average is 5.7 this season. Teams that allow over 6.0 are usually one and done in the playoffs. Buffalo has a net yards per play differential of +0.3 while Houston has a -0.3 net yards per play differential. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 16th while Houston's offensive line is ranked 22nd at Football Outsiders. Defensive line, Buffalo is ranked 12th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Team defense, Buffalo is ranked 6th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Buffalo is ranked 13th in overall team efficiency while Houston is ranked 19th. JJ Watt might return. That's okay. He's not 100% returning from an injury that normally takes 3-4 months to recover. Huge coaching edge to the road team. Buffalo 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Houston went 1-6 ATS when installed as the favorite. I like the Bills plus the points!

10*Tennessee Volunteers -1.5

The Volunteers, who have won five in a row and six of the last seven games, is on a roll heading into the Gator Bowl and should receive a boost from a partisan crowd in Jacksonville. Tennessee's defense allowed no more than 20 points during that five-game winning streak. The Vols (.589) played a much tougher schedule than the Hoosiers (.434) this season. Indiana went 0-4 SU while losing the stats in three of the four games against other bowl teams. They were outgained by an average of -98 yards. Tennessee went 3-5 SU and 4-4 in the stats against fellow bowlers. They were outgained by -34 yards, which is pretty good considering the very tough schedule (10th toughest among bowl teams) they endured. Love the fact that Tennessee has played 10 games on a grass field going 5-5 SU. Indiana has played just 3 games on a grass field going 1-2 SU this season. The Vols' offensive line is ranked 68th while Indiana's O'line is ranked 97th at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 22nd in special teams while the Hoosiers are ranked 41st. Tennessee has a -0.3 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a -1.6 net yards per play differential against other bowl teams. This is a huge edge to the Vols and a system of mine that has worked very well in the past. Finally, Tennessee is 7-2 SU against the Big 10 since 1993. Indiana is 1-6 SU when playing on a neutral field since 1993. Max play on the Vols!

5*Oregon +3

Don't sleep on this Ducks' defense as they held 6 foes to season-low or 2nd-low yards this season. Teams almost played the exact same strength of schedule (Oregon .573 vs Wisconsin .572) this season. Oregon's defensive line is ranked 27th while Wisconsin's defensive line is ranked 48th at Football Outsiders. Special teams edge to the Ducks as they are ranked 17 spots higher (36 vs 53). This will be Justin Herbert's final game before getting drafted this Spring. Love it. I believe this team wants to send him out as a winner. I like the Ducks plus the points in this one!

5*Western Michigan +3.5

The Broncos should be extremely motivated after losing their bowl game last season by 31 points. Western Michigan has a +0.7 net yards per play differential while Western Kentucky has a +0.3 net yards per play differential. Western Michigan lost their last game of the Season by a FG despite outgaining Northern Illinois 348-250. The Broncos are 4-0 ITS (in the stats) while WM went 2-2 ITS down the stretch. I love playing on Bowl underdogs that average 200+ yards rushing & 200+ passing yards. First-year head coaches tend to struggle as a favorite in bowl games. Finally, WK is 4-12 ATS as a favorite in their past 16 games. Take the points with Western Michigan.

5*Iowa -2

The Hawkeyes boast the better offensive and defensive lines. Iowa also owns the much better defense and special teams. I am pleasantly surprised this line is under a FG. Iowa ranks 5th in Red Zone offense and they are ranked 4th in fewest penalty yards. Usc allows more points (30) than they score (28) against other Bowl teams. Red flag. Take Iowa in the Holiday Bowl!

5*Temple Owls +5

North Carolina has played 9 one-possession games this season. The Tar Heels went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. other Bowl teams this season. The Owls are playing in a bowl game for the fifth straight season and are playing in the Military Bowl for the third time overall. They most recently played in the Military Bowl in 2016 when they were upended by Wake Forest, and they also lost to UCLA here in 2009 when it was known as the EagleBank Bowl. The Owls are extremely motivated to get a win for the senior class. Temple went 3-1 SU down the stretch while outgaining all four teams. Temple's only setback was against Cincinnati by 2 points. The Owls are ranked 4th in red zone defense. Temple is ranked 30th in team defense while North Carolina is ranked 61st at Football Outsiders this season. Temple went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after a BYE week while NC went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the points with the much better defense in this one!

5*Arizona Cardinals +10

The Seahawks have played a lot of one-possession games this season. The one game they did win by margin was at Arizona. The Cardinals are a feisty team with a sneaky good offense. They are ranked #12 in team offense at Football Outsiders. Arizona is 8-4 ATS as underdogs this season. Seattle is 3-6 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season of late. Love the fact that Seattle plays San Francisco next week. Also, the Seahawks are really "nicked up". That injury report is long on some very key players. Arizona should be motivated to perform well for their head coach as the season wines down. I think this line should be closer to 8 points. Great value on the road dog!

4*New York Jets +3 (+110)

I'm taking the points with the much better QB. The Jets are getting two key players back (Williams & Adams) and should be motivated in their last home game. The Steelers play Baltimore next week. The Jets have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. I like the home team in this one!

4*Charlotte Hornets +6

4*Oklahoma City -4

5*Arizona Cardinals +3

This is a tough spot for the road team. The Cleveland Browns are coming off back-to-back division games and they play Baltimore Ravens at home next week. The Cleveland Browns defeated the Bengals last week 27-19 despite getting outgained 451-333. Cleveland allowed 179 rushing yards and will now have to face an offense that likes to run a lot with a mobile QB. K. Murray QBR is 59.6 (11th). B. Mayfield QBR is 51.8 (19th). I don't think the Browns have the discipline on defense to stop Arizona from scoring in their last home game of the season. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Chiefs are coming off a big win against New England despite only scoring three points in the 2nd half. Patrick Mahomes hurt his hand and while he will play, look for the Chiefs to be a bit more conservative. I love division dogs with same-season revenge getting 10 or more points. Great value on the road team!

5*Oakland Raiders +3

The Titans are playing its second straight road game having won three straight overall. Tennessee has been outgained in two of those three victories. The Titans rank last in sacks allowed and will have to matchup against a solid front seven. The Raiders return home after two blowout losses on the road. Last week, they actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards in losing 40-9. Tennessee has scored 108 points in their past three games combined and now must play on the road against a hungry team. Tough. I made this line Oakland -1. Take the home underdog!

5*New Orleans Saints -2.5

The 49ers will be playing its second straight road game after a physical and emotional contest against the Ravens. The Saints have 10 days to prepare coming off a season-low 184 passing yards by Drew Brees. I would expect a huge bounce back effort. San Francisco had their BYE back in week four. The Saints had their BYE in week nine. The Saints are 20-5 SU in their past 25 home games. The 49ers are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five Dome games. I will swallow the 2.5 points with the home team!

5*Santa Clara -5

Santa Clara returns home off a 31-point loss. This team is highly motivated to get back on track.

4*Oklahoma City Thunder PK

4*Toronto Raptors -2

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for this one after playing Houston on Thursday night. Frank Reich is a really good head coach and he should have this team fired up. The Titans' defense was on the field for a season-high 78 plays last week. Tough. The scoreboard shows a blowout win but if you watched that game you know four of the scores were fluky. The Titans are ranked dead last in sacks allowed (43 in 11 games) while the Colts are ranked 11th (21 in 11 games). Tennessee is 6-16 ATS in their past 22 games on field turf. Indianapolis is 40-19 ATS after a straight-up loss of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

I like the switch to Devlin Hodges who is an upgrade at this point of the season. I also like the matchup of the Steelers' front 7 against the Browns' offensive line. Pittsburgh will be pumped-up at home in this ginormous revenge game. The Browns will miss Myles Garrett on defense. Big coaching edge to the Steelers in this same-season rematch. Take the Steelers plus the generous 2.5 points. I would also try a slice on the money line.

10*San Diego State +5.5

This will be first time all season the Cougars play back-to-back road games without a week of rest. They traveled to Umass last week. BYU has already accepted an invitation to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I have to question their motivation. The Aztecs will be motivated as they want 9 wins this season. They are also coming off a tough 3-point setback at Hawaii last week on a game ending miss FG. Rocky Long has SD state playing stifling defense. This unit is ranked 8th in the nation--allowing just 288 yards per game. San Diego State is ranked #2 in defensive line play while BYU is ranked 116th at Football Outsiders. The Aztecs are ranked 23rd in special teams while BYU is ranked 100th. The Cougars have played a very easy schedule and this will be the 2nd best defense BYU has faced. Utah defeated BYU 30-12 in week one (at BYU) who has a similar defense. Carson Baker gets the start at QB for the Aztecs. He's from the area and BYU has no idea what to expect on offense. I'm all over the home underdog in this one. Try a slice on the money line as well (+180).

4*Kansas State +5.5

4*Louisville +3.5

10*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

The Seahawks have won four in a row and I think the BYE week will stop their momentum. When Seattle's BYE week occurs after week 8, they have not performed well on the road. Seattle has played the 9th easiest schedule to date. They have won four games by 4 points or less and seven of the eight victories have been by 7 points or less. They are rated as one of the worst 8-2 teams in quite some time. The Seahawks like to run and the Eagles are really efficient at stopping the run. The Eagles are ranked 3rd in run defense at Football Outsiders while the Seahawks are ranked 22nd. The Eagles are ranked 6th in total defense at Football Outsiders while Seattle is ranked 21st. Seattle is ranked 24th in opponent yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are ranked 11th (5.3). Philadelphia is ranked 5th in 3rd down efficiency on offense while only converting 23% against New England. I would expect a much better effort in this spot. Seattle ranks 14th in that stat and much worse on the road. The Eagles are playing their third straight home game after playing three straight road games. Teams off a SU and ATS loss in that third straight home game are cashing close to 70% since 2011. The Seahawks have allowed the 9th most fantasy points against TE's this season so expect Zach Ertz to have a huge game. Philadelphia is coming off a poor effort and they know this is a must win game. You might say it's the Eagles' Super Bowl. Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffery are expected to return. Even if they don't, I'm all over the Eagles as a very short home favorite!

5*Indiana Hoosiers +10

The Hoosiers have an offense that can score on almost any defense. Indiana has a net yards per play differential of +1.3 while Michigan has a +1.7 mark. Michigan has a bigger game against Ohio State next week. I think the Hoosiers are undervalued in this spot. I have this game closer to 7 points. Take the home dog! 

5*Miami Dolphins +6

These two rivals just played in Week 7. The Bills won 31-21 despite getting outgained 381-305. This will be the second of back-to-back road games for Buffalo. This team doesn't have a signature victory. The combined record of the six teams that Buffalo defeated are 12-44. There are no surprises. Both teams know exactly what each team wants to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 61.1 (9th) while Josh Allen's QBR is 36 (31st). The Dolphins are playing hard for head coach Brain Flores. The Bills are 4-9 ATS as road chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Check this out. NFL teams are 1-7 ATS after playing the Cleveland Browns this season. I really like the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Navy +9.5

Navy enters this game with a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Notre Dame has a +1.4 net yards per play differential. Navy has two weeks to prepare and has revenge from last year's setback. Navy is 3-0 ATS when getting less than 10 points against ND. Navy is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1993. Notre Dame is just 3-6 ATS in November the past three years. I think this line should be closer to 7.5 to 8 points. I like the road dog in this one! 

5*Indiana +15.5

Wow, this line is out of whack. The Hoosiers lost 33-28 to Penn State last year as 14-point home underdogs, despite outgaining the Nittany Lions 554-417. Indiana has the offense to score points against anyone. They also have an extra week of rest. Penn State had its dream of making the playoffs crushed with last weak's loss to Minnesota. Tough spot for the home team. Penn State has just an 11% chance of making it to the final four. Penn State has a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a +1.3 net yards per play differential. I don't think the gap between these two teams is 15.5 points. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival while Penn State is 1-4 ATS off a loss against a conference foe. I'm all over the road dog in this spot!

4*Memphis Grizzlies +8

4*Charlotte Hornets -1.5