3*Virginia Tech PK

Virginia will be playing its second straight road game. Virginia Tech returns home after a poor defensive effort with a chance to get a signature win against an in-state rival. The Hokies have been solid at home in revenge games vs. ranked teams. Take V. Tech!

3*Nevada +3.5

The Wolf Pack will be playing with revenge and should be focused facing a ranked team at home. Nevada is 5-0 SU after a loss this season. San Diego State is ranked No. 122 in free-throw percentage, while Nevada is ranked No. 4 this season. This line seems inflated to me. Take the points in this late night match-up!

4*Syracuse +5.5

I like playing on home underdogs after their opponent allowed less than 60 points and playing with one day of rest. Virginia is 3-5 ATS after allowing less than 60 points. Virginia has won seven in a row which kicked off against the Orange three weeks ago. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS revenging a road loss this season, and 3-0 ATS after allowing 80+ points. Joe Girard had one of his worst shooting performances of the season on Saturday and should bounce back with a big effort tonight. Take the hungry host!

5*Buffalo Bills -4.5

The Bengals have major offensive line issues (down three starters) and will now face a brilliant defensive head coach in Sean McDermont. The Bengals went 9-8 in the stats, while Buffalo went 13-4 this season. The Bengals were out-gained in six of seven games against fellow playoff teams. Buffalo owns a +1.1 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is just +0.1 this season. Buffalo owns a +169 point differential, while the Bengals are +96 this season. Josh Allen's QBR is 71.2. Joe Burrow's QBR is 58.5, and that was behind a healthier offensive line. Buffalo owns the better special teams and red-zone stats. Light snow is expected and that favors the home team. Take the Bills! 

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

I think the Buccaneers match-up quite well against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay defeated a much healthier Dallas team in week one. The Cowboys have been out-gained in three of their past four games. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing on a grass field this season. Tampa Bay's offensive line is ranked No. 1 in QB sacks allowed. They should be able to run on Dallas from a spread formation as well. Take the three points before this line drops!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars own a +0.2 net yards per play, while the Chargers are -0.6 this season. Tough travel spot for the road team after playing in Denver last Sunday and now travel to Florida with one less day to prepare. The Chargers went 1-5 SU against fellow playoff teams this season. Mike Williams is OUT and he's been huge on third down and in the red-zone. Joey Bosa will play, but is not 100% healthy. Doug Pederson has won multiple playoff games (including a Super Bowl) while Brandon Staley is making his postseason debut. Take the home dog!

3*Penn State +4.5

Michigan allowed just 46 points in defeating Maryland on New Year's Day, while covering the spread by 34 points. Penn State has the better defense and is 4-0 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Michigan has a big game against Michigan State on deck. I like the road dog in this spot!

10*Penn State +2.5

Penn State dropped their Bowl game last season, 24-10 against Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. The Razorbacks ran for 361 yards on 58 carries. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 12 against the run, which should bode well against the Utes' offense. Utah standout CB Clark Phillips lll has decided to skip this Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft process. Penn State owns the better defensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 58), special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 64) and overall defense (No. 5 vs. No. 17) at Football Outsiders. Utah went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS when the line was 7 or less this season. Penn State is 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on a grass field, while Utah is just 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on that same surface. Penn State has played a tougher schedule (No. 10 vs. No. 21) and own better metrics against fellow bowlers, especially on defense. Take the underdog!

3*Houston Texans +5

The Texans should be motivated to win their final home game of the season as they are 0-6-1 in Houston. It would be fitting for it to happen on the first day of the new year. They have a good chance to keep this one close. Houston is ranked No. 8 in opponent passer rating, No. 2 in special teams, and No. 20 in overall defense. Jacksonville is ranked No. 20 in opponent passer rating, No. 29 in third-down defense, and No. 27 in overall defense at Football Outsiders. Trevor Lawrence did not practice on Wednesday with a toe injury. He's going to play, but I would expect the Jags to be cautious. The Jaguars have their biggest game of the season for the division title next week. Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the hungry host!

4*Coastal Carolina +8.5

Coastal Carolina owns the better offensive line (No. 87 vs. No. 102) and defensive line (No. 19 vs. No. 37 at Football Outsiders. Star QB Grayson McCall will start for the Chanticleers who is the only player to earn Sun Belt conference player of the year three times. He's heading for the transfer portal after this game. Coastal Carolina owns better metrics against fellow bowlers. The Chanticleers are 9-3 SU on field turf, while East Carolina is 0-2 SU this season. Take the points in what should be a one-score game!

3*New England Patriots +3 (+100)

New England should be super focused knowing they must win out to have any chance at reaching the playoffs. The Patriots offense should be able to move the ball against a "nicked" up Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is coming off a phony win against Tampa Bay as they were out-gained 396-237 and benefited from four Tampa Bay turnovers. New England ranks No. 2 in pressure rate, while the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in pressure rate allowed. The Bengals are ranked No. 28 in PFF pass blocking grade. The Patriots own a +0.55 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is +0.31. The Bengals have a big game against Buffalo next week on MNF. Take the hungry host getting three points (even money)!

4*Air Force +4

The Falcons own the better offensive line (No. 5 vs. No. 44), defensive line (No. 20 vs. No. 100) and special teams (No. 57 vs. No. 115) at Football Outsiders. It's going to be very windy (20-30 MPH) and this benefits the Falcons' run-heavy attack. Air Force owns the No. 1 defense in yards allowed and No. 2 defense in points allowed. Take the Falcons plus the points!

4*Liberty +5

The Flames should be super focused after dropping their last three games by a combined -87.5 ATS margin. Liberty owns the better offensive line (No. 70 vs. No. 73), defensive line (No. 10 vs. No. 24), special teams (No. 37 vs. No. 120), and total defense (No. 44 vs. No. 61) at Football Outsiders. Liberty has superior metrics against fellow bowlers, and the Flames' defense leads the nation in tackles for a loss (109). Liberty is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as underdogs, while the Rockets are 2-7 ATS vs. winning teams of late. Take Liberty plus the generous five points!

5*Eastern Michigan +4.5

The Eagles get to practice on the same exact surface (field turf) and in extreme cold weather. San Jose has no such advantage. Eastern Michigan defeated San Jose State 30-27 as 17-point underdogs in the California Bowl in 1987 for its lone bowl victory. I love playing on teams that lost their bowl game by 30+ in the previous year. Both teams played Western Michigan and won with very similar stats. The Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS on field turf, while the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries. Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS as an underdog, while San Jose State is 3-6 ATS as chalk. The Eagles are 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing on Tuesday, while the Spartans have never played on that day of the week. Eastern Michigan is ranked No. 25 in special teams, while San Jose State is ranked dead last (131) at Football Outsiders. Take the points before it drops!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

The Jaguars return home with a lot of confidence after beating the Titans last week. Doug Pederson was with the Eagles when his defense held Dak Prescott and company to just 172 passing yards. Dallas will be without right tackle Terrance Steele, who has allowed just one sack in 818 snaps this season. The Cowboys have struggled against mobile QB's, and they are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on a grass field this season. This slows down their defense who is also "nicked" up in the secondary. Trevor Lawrence has a higher QBR (56.6) than Dak Prescott (52.9). I like the home team plus the points!

3*Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Knicks are coming off two straight games allowing less than 90 points. They are 6-10 straight-up in this role of late. The Hornets were competitive against the Knicks in their only meeting this season. I think they match-up quite well so lets take the home team in this spot!

3*New York Giants +2.5

This will be the Commanders' 13th straight game without a week of rest. The Giants have extra time to prepare and get healthy after playing on Thanksgiving. Washington defeated the Giants twice last season. I love backing first-year head coaches (as underdogs) in double revenge division games. The Giants are ranked No. 5 in red-zone defense and No. 10 in opponent passer rating. Daniel Jones QBR is 58.1, while Taylor Heinicke has a QBR of 46.9 this season. I like the home team plus the points in this spot!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +4

The Jags own the better offensive line and defensive line at Football Outsiders. Jacksonville has seen Lamar Jackson (2020) and their run defense matches-up great against Baltimore. The Ravens will be without stud offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. I like the Jags head coach with two weeks to prepare. I heard they had some really good meetings about what is working and vice versa. Take the points!

10*Duke Blue Devils +3.5

Wake Forest has punished Duke the last three seasons by a combined score of 143-41. This spread is the lowest since 2015, when Duke was 3.5-point road favorites and won 27-21. First-year head coach Mike Elko was the defensive coordinator at Wake Forrest from 2014-2016. Duke owns the better offensive line (No. 15 vs. No. 80) and special teams (No. 30 vs. No. 82) at Football Outsiders. The Blue Devils own the better yards against, net yards per play, and scoring defense. Duke also owns the better metrics against common opponents (ACC foes) this season. Wake Forrest is just 1-1 straight-up and 1-1 against-the-spread on a grass field this season. Duke is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS on the same surface this season. The Demon Deacons accumulated 543 total yards last week and now hit the road against a highly motivated squad. Play Duke plus the points!

3*New England Patriots -3

The Patriots defeated the Jets on the road two weeks ago and this was the same exact spread. Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards and Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare for a New England team ranked No. 5 in opponent passer rating. New England is 0-2 straight-up and 0-2 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. Extra motivation for the home team. The Jets are 4-0 SU on the road this season. I'm not buying it. Road dogs off a BYE have not performed well this season. Take the Pats before this line starts to climb!

5*Baylor +2.5

TCU is coming off two straight interstate rival wins and the pressure is mounting to stay undefeated. Baylor was clearly looking ahead to this match-up after scoring just 3 points at home last week. Baylor is 11-4 against-the-spread as underdogs in their last 15 games and 13-5 ATS vs. winning teams the past three seasons. The Bears are undervalued in this spot so lets take the points!

3*Oklahoma State -5.5

I think the Cowboys are by far the more talented team. I have Oklahoma State nine points better on a neutral court. UCF is coming off a game where they allowed just 37 points. This will be a completely different experience in the Bahamas. Lay it! 

3*Washington Wizards -4.5

Third road game in four nights for the Thunder. The Wizards get Bradley Beal back which should only help a team that has won four in a row. Washington plays much better defense so lets swallow the points in this spot!

3*Cleveland Browns +4

The Dolphins have played nine straight games without any rest. Their defense could be tiring after chasing Justin Fields all over the field last week. The Browns own the better offensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 22) and special teams (No. 22 vs. No. 32). Cleveland owns a net yards per play of +0.22, while the Dolphins are +0.24 this season. Miami is ranked No. 26 in sack rate, while Cleveland ranks No. 14 this season. The Browns are ranked No. 16 in third-down defense, while Miami is ranked No. 27 this season. Cleveland gets stud cornerback Denzel Ward back. I like the Browns with two weeks to prepare in this spot!

The Lions defeated the Packers 15-9 last week, despite getting out-gained 389-254. Detroit finished with a +2 turnover differential and took advantage of eight Packers injured during the game. The Bears' defense was on the field for just 53 plays against the Dolphins and should be relatively fresh. The Lions will be playing their first game on a grass field this season and Jared Goff has struggled in cold weather (below 40) in his career. The Bears own a +0.14 net yards per play at home, while Detroit owns a -0.58 net yards per play on the road. Chicago is ranked No. 10 in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked No. 29 this season. Take the Bears at this great price! 

5*Wake Forrest -3.5

Wake Forrest owns the better defensive line (No. 50 vs. No. 123) and overall defense (No. 50 vs. No. 118) at Football Outsiders. The Demon Deacons have revenge on their minds after blowing a big lead last season (58-55), despite out-gaining the Tar Heels 615-546. Wake Forrest is ranked 17 spots higher in DVOA and 16 spots higher in strength of schedule. North Carolina will be playing its third set of back-to-back road games. The Tar Heels are 3-12 against-the-spread off a win vs. a conference rival of late. Wake Forrest is 13-2 straight-up and 12-3 ATS at home over the past three seasons. Take the hungry host!

3*Washington Commanders +4

The Vikings allow more yards per game (383) than they gain (345) so far this season. Washington brings in the better defense, allowing 334 yards per game. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in red-zone defense, while the Vikings are ranked No. 32 thru week seven. Washington is ranked No. 4 in the fewest fantasy points allowed vs. tight ends. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in special teams, while Minnesota is ranked No. 25 this season. The Vikings six wins have come against teams with a combined 15-24 record. Seems like a tough spot for the road team with the Buffalo Bills on deck. Take the home dog!

5*Georgia Southern +4

South Alabama will be playing its fourth game in 21 days. That seems like a tough spot considering Georgia Southern has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Eagles own the better offensive line (No. 83 vs. No. 101). They are 11-3 against-the-spread vs. winning teams over the past three seasons. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and 1-4 ATS as road chalk. Take the home team plus the points!

3*New Orleans Saints +2

New Orleans has three extra days to get healthy and prepare for head coach Dennis Allen's former team, where he coached from 2012-2014. Marshawn Lattimore is expected to return from his injury. The Saints have out-gained five of their seven opponents, while the Raiders are just 3-3 in the stats. Las Vegas is ranked No. 27 in third-down defense and No. 30 in red-zone defense. The Saints are ranked No. 4 in third-down defense and No. 13 in red-zone defense. I like the fact Las Vegas won't know which QB will start for the Saints until later this week, and Las Vegas is ranked No. 32 in opponent passer rating. Las Vegas will be playing this game at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock), and they are just 9-21 against-the-spread vs. the NFC of late. Take the hungry host plus the points! 

4*Baylor +2.5

Baylor owns the better offensive line (No. 26 vs. No. 92) and defensive line (No. 24 vs. No. 35) at Football Outsiders. The Bears own a +1.3 net yards per play differential, while Texas Tech is +0.5 this season. Baylor is ranked No. 66 (45.1%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas Tech is ranked No. 182 (36.2%). The Red Raiders are 0-6 straight-up off a win vs. a conference rival and 0-5-1 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points. Baylor is 9-4 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. Texas Tech has a big revenge game @ TCU next week. Take the road dog!

4*Kentucky +12.5

Kentucky has the better special teams (No. 11 vs. No. 43) and overall defense (No. 14 vs. 42) at Football Outsiders. The Wildcats have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, Tennessee defeated Kentucky 45-42 despite getting out-gained 612-461. The Vols are 8-17 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points of late. They also have a big game against Georgia next week. Take the road team plus the points!

3*Washington Commanders +5.5

The Commanders own the better defensive line (No. 12 vs. No. 32), special teams (No. 5 vs. No. 30) and overall defense (No. 11 vs. No. 24) at Football Outsiders. I like the QB switch for the home team. Green Bay is dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line. This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. I like Washington in this spot!

4*UTEP +4.5

UTEP owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams at Football Outsiders. The Miners have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, FAU defeated UTEP 28-25, despite getting out-gained 438-280. UTEP is 6-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week and 7-2 ATS vs. losing teams of late. FAU is 2-9 straight-up and 3-8 ATS in games played on turf, including 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the hungry host!

5*Wisconsin -2

This will be the Boilermakers third road game in four weeks. They accumulated over 600 total yards in last week's victory. Teams in this role have been a great play to fade in their next game. Wisconsin brings in the better net yards per play (+0.5 vs. -0.4), better offensive line, (No. 67 vs. No. 97) and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Purdue is 3-8 against-the-spread vs. losing teams of late. Take the home team to get back to .500 before their BYE week.

4*New England Patriots +3

The Patriots own the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Bill Belichick is very familiar with Jacoby Brissett and his skill set. The Browns play the Ravens next week. I like the road dog plus the points! 

5*Oklahoma State +4

Money is coming in on TCU based on last year's blowout loss to these Cowboys. I don't think anything has changed. Oklahoma State should be able to pile up yards on the ground. TCU is ranked No. 71 in defensive line DVOA, while the Cowboys are ranked No. 4 this season. The Cowboys are ranked 18 spots higher in overall defense and will gladly take four points in this spot.

2*Vancouver Canucks +1.5 (-150)

The Oilers swept the Canucks last season with all four games decided by one goal. Three games were decided in Overtime/Shootout. This is a big time rivalry so lets take the road team on the puck line.

3*Baltimore Ravens -3

The Bengals went 2-0 vs. the Ravens last year scoring 41 points in both blowouts. Lamar Jackson was injured in the first game and then missed the rematch two months later. The Ravens could easily be 4-0, and this seems like a nice bounce back spot playing with revenge off a loss. Lamar Jackson's QBR is 72.4, while Joe Burrow's QBR is 49.4 through week four. The Ravens are 8-2 straight-up after committing 9 or more penalties in defeat. Well-coached team. Lets swallow the FG and take the Ravens! 

4*Cleveland Browns +3

The Browns return home off a loss at Atlanta, despite out-gaining the Falcons 403-333. Nick Chubb and company should have a field day against this Chargers' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line is ranked No. 30 at Football Outsiders, while the Browns are ranked No. 7 so far this season. Cleveland owns the much better special teams unit. Second straight road game for the Chargers after playing indoors last week. Strong angle. This week playing at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) against a physical team seems like a tough spot. Take the Browns!

3*Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5

I like Kenny Pickett and consider him an upgrade. He brings unbridled enthusiasm and his mobility should help move the chains. The Bills played a high-energy (90 offensive snaps) game in Miami and then another high-energy emotional come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. The Steelers have never been this large of an underdog and you can be sure Mike Tomlin will use it as motivation. Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked No. 13 at Football Outsiders, while Buffalo is ranked No. 32 thru week four. The Steelers are ranked No. 9 in opponent passer rating (77). The Buffalo Bills have their ultimate revenge game (Divisional playoff loss 42-36 in OT) against the Kansas City Chiefs next week. This line seems inflated. I like the road dog!

5*Miami U -3.5

The Hurricanes have two weeks to prepare after their embarrassing loss vs. Middle Tenn State as 26-point home chalk. Mario Cristobal is 6-2 against-the-spread when playing with extra rest since 2018. Miami's offensive line ranked No. 38, while North Carolina is ranked No. 90 at Football Outsiders. The Hurricanes' defensive line is ranked No. 33, while the Tar Heels are ranked No. 119 this season. North Carolina defeated Miami 45-42, despite getting out-gained 421-382 last year. The Tar Heels benefited from a +2 turnover differential. This will be the highest humidity game for the road team so far this season. North Carolina is 3-8 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival since 2019. Take the hungry host!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

The Buffalo Bills offense was on the field for 90 plays in last week's loss at Miami. They will now play their second straight road game in less than ideal conditions. Rain is expected (78%) from the remnants of Hurricane Ian. Buffalo defeated the Ravens 17-3 in the 2021 divisional playoffs, despite getting out-gained 340-220. The Ravens last home game vs. Miami was a meltdown of epic proportions. They should be motivated. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in their last nine games. Buffalo is 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against-the-spread when playing on a grass field of late. Take the home dog in what should be a tight game! 

4*Iowa State -3

Kansas is 4-0 straight-up & 4-0 against-the-spread, despite getting out-gained in two of those games. Iowa State has the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense according to every metric. The Jayhawks have played a much easier schedule so far. Kansas is 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning teams of late. The Cyclones are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I like the road team in this spot!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

The Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 as 7-point road underdogs last season. The Cowboys out-gained Baylor 333-242. Both teams have a Top 2 offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. The Cowboys are 21-6-1 ATS vs. winning teams. I see value on the road team!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Chargers have seven key starters listed as questionable on their injury report. Their starting center Corey Linsley is elite. If he does play, he won't be 100% healthy. The Chargers could also be rusty from not having six players practice this week. It's going to be hot (around 90). Despite the roof, the open sides of the stadium still make it vulnerable to extreme heat. I think the Jaguars will handle the hot weather better than the Chargers. LA doesn't really have any home field edge as most of their fans are in San Diego. Jacksonville hasn't won on the road in their past 17 games. They should be motivated. I think they keep this one close!

3*Carolina Panthers +3

This will be the first game outdoors for the majority of the Saints' roster since last year. Carolina should have a lot of confidence, knowing they beat New Orleans 26-7 as 3-point home dogs in week two last season. The Panthers out-gained New Orleans 383-128 with Sam Darnold under center. New Orleans has allowed 10 sacks in two games and will be without their starting left tackle. Carolina is 4-0 against-the-spread in Week 3 over the past four years. New Orleans is 1-3 straight-up after playing Tampa Bay the last two seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Saints play the Vikings in London next week. Take the home dog! 

5*Arkansas +2

Texas A&M made a QB switch and escaped with a victory against Miami, despite getting out-gained by 128 yards. That loss to Appalachian State is a red flag. The Razorbacks have a really good pass rush and now will face an inexperienced QB at a neutral site. We get the better QB (dual threat), offensive line, and red-zone efficiency as an underdog. Arkansas has out-gained all three foes by 113 yards to start the season. The Razorbacks out-gained the Aggies 448-272 in their 20-10 win last season. Don't worry that Arkansas plays Alabama next week. In a similar spot last year, Arkansas defeated LSU before playing the Crimson Tide. Arkansas has a lot more experience playing on field turf. The Razorbacks are 8-5 straight-up, while Texas A&M is just 1-1 SU over the past three seasons. Larger sample size shows Texas A&M just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. Take the dog!

3*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

Minnesota is in the middle of a division sandwich. They are coming off an emotional win and play another division game next week. The Eagles should be able to dominate the Vikings' undersized interior offensive line. Minnesota and QB Kirk Cousins haven't played great in prime-time games. We also have a rookie head coach making his road debut. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points. Light play on the home chalk.

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The majority of the Colts roster haven't played a game outdoors since losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last year. The public loves the Colts in this revenge spot. Not so fast. The Colts' offense was on the field for 90 plays in their 20-20 tie last week. In the last 30 games, teams off a tie are just 13-17 ATS in their next game. Light play on the home team!

4*Fresno State +12.5

This will be the best offense that USC has played so far this season. The over/under tells the entire story. Points will be scored by both teams. The Trojans don't have a shut-down defense and the back door will always be open (if needed). USC has a big revenge game on deck against Pac-12 rival Oregon State. The Bulldogs should be all in knowing they have a BYE next week. Fresno State is 9-2 ATS as a road dog, while USC is 3-8 ATS as home chalk of late. The Trojans are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 40+ points. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. The road dog checks all the boxes!  

5*New York Giants +6

The Titans' offensive line is in major flux. They decided to invest heavily on the defensive line (see below). The Giants' offensive line looks much improved and all their key starters played meaningful snaps in the preseason. The Titans really don't know what type of offense the new regime will implement. New York knows exactly the Titans game plan, which features Derrick Henry behind a shaky offensive line. Tennessee just lost their best edge rusher from a year ago with a season-ending injury. The Titans play the Buffalo Bills next week on Monday Night Football. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +4

The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 3 at Pro Football Focus and they have very talented skill players at RB, WR, and TE. Jared Goff is very capable and once put up 50+ points on MNF. The Lions drafted well on the defense and should improve in year two under Dan Campbell. In week one, you want to play on teams that missed the playoffs against teams that made the playoffs from the previous year. Strong angle. The Lions should be focused knowing the Eagles crushed them 44-6 in Detroit last Halloween. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Steelers played most of their starters in the preseason, while the Bengals decided to rest nearly every key player on the roster. The Bengals went 2-0 against Pittsburgh last season (out-scored Pittsburgh 65-20), despite getting out-gained 643-638. Mike Tomlin and company are 4-1-1 straight-up of late when playing on the road in week one. This line seems super inflated to me for a division game in week one. Division underdogs are 29-9-1 ATS in week one since 2014. Take the road dog!

5*Georgia State +7.5

North Carolina defeated Appalachian State 63-61, despite getting out-gained by 82 yards last week. Georgia state has the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams. North Carolina is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS when playing back-to-back road games of late. The Panthers are 14-6 ATS playing on turf, while the Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS on that same surface over the past three years. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS after a loss of 20+ points. Take the hungry host!

5*Boise State +2.5

The Broncos return 17 starters from a squad that went 7-5, while defeating two ranked teams last season. Boise State out-scored their opponents by 10 points per game. I see more improvements in year two under Andy Avalos. The Beavers should get better as the season plays out. Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 0-4 straight-up and 0-4 against-the-spread in openers. Boise State is 32-16 ATS as an underdog since 1993. Take the road dog!

5*San Diego State -6

The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 as 1-point road dogs last season. San Diego State out-gained Arizona 454-230. Arizona has a long way to go after winning just one game last season. The Wildcats' offensive line is ranked No. 12 in the Pac 12, and their defensive line is ranked No. 10. The Aztecs' offensive line is ranked No. 2 in the Mountain West, and their defensive line is ranked No. 1 heading into this opener. The Aztecs will be debuting in a brand new home stadium. The new grass field should benefit San Diego State. The Aztecs are 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread on a grass field. Arizona plays mostly on field turf. They are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS playing on a grass field over the past three years. Take the home team!

5*Denver Broncos +1

This game means a lot more to the Broncos after losing 42-15 at Buffalo last week. Denver allowed 510 total yards, 208 rushing yards, and 32 First-downs. I love playing on teams returning home off a blowout loss. I watched Kevin O'Connell presser today and there was no mention of a game plan for this game. He said we're trying to get ready for the Green Bay Packers in week one. The Vikings traded for QB Nick Mullens, which means less reps in practice for the other two QBs that will play most of the game. My best handicap is the fact that the Minnesota Vikings will be playing their first game outdoors this preseason. The Broncos have a huge home field edge in August. Take the hungry host!

5*Miami Dolphins +2

This will be the Raiders' third game in 16 days. Lots of travel--- to Cleveland than back home and now another flight to the East Coast. Miami's humidity and dew point are the highest of any NFL city, even at 7:00 PM E. Las Vegas will be "gassed" by the second half after playing indoors this past Saturday. The Raiders have allowed nine sacks in their first two games. Wow! Don't expect their starters to play much. Also, Josh McDaniels and company play the Patriots next week. I like the Dolphins QB rotation for this game. Take the home dog!

5*Denver Broncos -2

The Broncos have a big advantage playing at home in the preseason and early in the regular season. Opposing teams are completely "gassed" by the second half. Nathaniel Hackett would like to win his debut and the Broncos have a much better QB rotation than Dallas. Take the home team!

4*San Francisco Giants +1.5  (Kershaw/Junis)

The Giants have lost seven straight to the Dodgers after getting shutout on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw is just 2-5 in his last seven starts against the Giants. The Dodgers might be looking ahead to Friday's game against the Padres. SF faces a lefty for the second straight game, and they are ranked No. 6 in OPS vs. left-handed starters. An early day game after a night game tends to be lower scoring. I like the home team on the run line!

3*Oakland A's +1.5 (+112)  (Manoah/Irvin)

The Blue Jays have played five straight against the Tampa Bay Rays and now travel to the West Coast. Seems like a flat spot to me. I like the A's on the run line!

5*Dallas Mavericks -2

The Warriors should incur a natural letdown after that second half comeback win on Friday night. The Mavs bench should be much better at home. Dallas should be super focused in this spot!

4*Dallas Mavericks +1

The Suns shot the lights out (62.5%) from the field in Wednesday's victory. Phoenix is just 1-3 in game No. 3 of NBA postseason series of late. Dallas should be able to get better bench production at home. I think just one day rest instead of two benefits Dallas more. Take the hungry host!

4*Washington Capitals +1.5 (-125)

The Panthers haven't played a meaningful game in quite some time. When these teams met way back in November, all three games were decided by one goal. Florida went 2-5 ATS when playing three or more days of rest. Washington has a ton of experience from a Cup run in 2018. Florida is ranked No. 27 (832) in Penalty minutes, while Washington is ranked No. 5 (631). I like the Capitals on the puck line in game one.

3*Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are now 4-3 vs. Utah this season, with two losses by 7 points combined. I think the Mavs will play much better in Luka's second game back. I don't think the Jazz with get 42 free throw attempts either. Dallas 16-4 this season after scoring less than 100 points. Take the home team!

5*Atlanta Hawks +1.5

The Hawks return home after committing 37 turnovers in both games combined at Miami. I have no problems fading Butler and the Heat after two very impressive wins at home. The Hawks play much better at home and would expect a top-notch effort in this spot. Take the hungry host!

4*Toronto Raptors +4.5

Toronto defeated the 76ers 119-114 as 3.5-point home dogs on April 7th. The game was telling in my opinion. The Raptors were able to switch every pick & roll with their length. Philadelphia shot 52.8% from 3-point land and still lost. Don't fall asleep on this Raptors' team. Toronto owns a +2.3 point differential, while Philadelphia is +2.6 this season. Toronto has really good team chemistry and I love their head coach. Take the Raptors (plus the points) and for the series at a nice price.

5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*Golden State Warriors +2

The Utah Jazz were on the road for six games, home for one game, and now hit the road again. Not an ideal spot, especially playing four games in six days. They shot 51% in their win over the LA Lakers. Big revenge game. The Warriors lost 111-85 on Feb. 9th in Utah. Golden State played really well against the Suns. No Steph. No problem tonight. Take the hungry host!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*Dallas Mavs -2.5

The Nets scored 150 points on Tuesday and will now play without K. Irving who scored 60 points. This will be the Nets' third game in four days. New Jersey is 2-9 SU when playing back-to-back games this year. Dallas is 13-4 SU after scoring 100 points or less and 6-3 SU when playing with two days of rest. Take the toad team!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

4*Charlotte Hornets +7.5

Both teams come in off losses to the New Jersey Nets. The Celtics beat the Nets 126-120 on Sunday, thanks in part to J. Tatum posting a season-high 54 points. The Hornets lost 132-121 as K. Irving posted 50 points in Tuesday's win. Charlotte has allowed two players score 50+ points in two straight games. Boston is just 2-5 ATS when playing with two days rest. This is a must play on the home team plus the points.

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The T-wolves have nobody on their roster that can stop Ja Morant. Very few teams do. The Grizzlies are 18-9 SU vs. winning teams while Minnesota is 12-17 this season. I like Memphis to get another win on the road!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

5*Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Nets will be getting some reinforcements, looking to end its 11-game losing skid. The Kings shot a season-high 56.6% from the field in their victory over Washington. I really like the Nets in this spot who are extremely motivated tonight.  

4*Washington Wizards +3

The Kings are coming off a two-game series against Minnesota. I love fading losing teams on the road after scoring 130+ points. Sacramento is 1-8 SU after scoring 130+ points, including 0-4 this season. The Wizards should have a lot of confidence after defeating the Nets. Take the home team!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.

4*Creighton +2.5

The Blue Jays get their coach back for this revenge game. In the first meeting, Xavier overcame a halftime deficit as Creighton committed 21 turnovers. The Blue Jays are coming off a horrific shooting performance from the field (35.6%) and beyond the arch (9.1%) Xavier is coming off an emotional loss as Providence nailed a 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left on the clock. I like the home team in this spot!

4*Detroit Pistons +3.5

Detroit has lost three straight, including a home-and-home with Denver. The Pistons defeated the Magic earlier this month in Detroit while being short-handed. I just think it's a tough match-up for this Magic team right now. Detroit plays their best defense with two days of rest (18-12 ATS past three years). The Magic are a lowly 3-18 SU at home this season. Take the Pistons and the points!

4*Central Florida +4.5

I like the Knights in this spot getting points. UCF is 7-4 SU against winning teams. I have this game power-rated at 2.5 points. Great value on the road team!

5*Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

There is a lot of support for the Bills. I guess their looking at Buffalo's superb 4.6 opponent yards per play. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of sub-par quarterbacks. The Bills (16th) played the easier schedule than Kansas City (4th). I just can't get the fact out of my mind that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Bills literally played a perfect game on offense last week. No punts, no fumbles lost, no interceptions, no field goals. Just a touchdown on seven straight drives until the kneel down. It will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise. He does that quite often. Kansas City went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS vs winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS vs winning teams. Buffalo is also 2-3 SU on a grass field, while Kansas City went 11-4 SU. Patrick Mahomes ll is 7-2 SU in the playoffs, only losing to Tom Brady. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season in Kansas City. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch. Lay it!

3*Miami Florida -2

FSU has defeated the Hurricanes in eight straight meetings, including a 1-point victory this past week. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up at home in this revenge spot.

4*Chicago Bulls +3

The Cavs are in a tough spot coming off what their coach called " a signature win" over the Nets. Cleveland was on the road for six games, played one home game and now hit the road again. Very tough spot. The Bulls are eager to end its four-game losing skid. Take the Bulls in this upset maker!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +9

The Eagles have a Top four offensive line which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. They also own the better special teams unit which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa, FL right about game time. The Forecast calls for Rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to wire!

10*Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders escaped with a 35-32 OT win late Sunday night, despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 88 plays and 38:41 of field time. Seven of the Raiders' 10 wins have occurred indoors. Las Vegas will be playing their first game in sub-freezing temps in quite some time. I think traveling East and playing Saturday at 4:30 PM E is not an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5.0 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while the Bengals commit the second-fewest. No revenge for Las Vegas. Take the Bengals!

3*Central Florida +2

This is a classic wise guy handicap where one team (Memphis) has shot the lights out in two straight games, while the other team (UCF) has shot well below their season average in their last two games. A regression and progression to the means usually happens. Take the home team with the better defense.

5*LA Rams -4

As a local, I have a pretty good read on this team. The Rams are sick & tired of hearing how the 49ers have dominated them in the past (5-0 L5). Jimmy G is not 100% healthy. Trey Lance is still a rookie making his second career road start. Whichever QB starts for SF, the Rams have the edge in my opinion. The Rams (6th) have played a much tougher schedule than SF (22nd). The Rams are ranked No. 6 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 27 this season. SF is 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on turf, while the Rams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on turf this season. The public is all over the underdog making the 49ers a square dog. Take the Rams (minus the points) to the bank!

4*FSU -4.5

The Seminoles are coming off a non-effort against Wake Forest. FSU shot 24.2% from the field, including 16% (4-for-25) from beyond the arc. It was the Seminoles most lopsided conference defeat since 2017 and worst shooting performance since 2010. Louisville was been winning close games of late. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Georgetown +2.5

This line is way too high even though Georgetown hasn't played since Dec. 18th. Marquette is coming off an upset win against Providence. The Golden Eagles shot 52.5% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point land, and 88.9% from the FT line, while scoring a season-high 88 points. Marquette is 5-14 ATS (0-2 TY) vs. teams that average 77 or more points per game. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Washington Football Team +3.5

The Eagles defeated Washington just 12 days ago by 10 points. The Football Team were missing numerous starters including their top two QB's. The Football team return home after getting embarrassed at Dallas. I would expect a much better effort. The Eagles will be without leading rusher Miles Sanders and QB J. Hurts is playing with an ankle injury. I think we're getting two points of value in this division game. I'm going against the public in this one. Take the points!