Kansas City Chiefs.

High Roller.

Game 471.

1:25 pm pst/4:25 pm est.

Following their season-opening loss in which they were shorthanded for sure, Kansas City has now rattled off three consecutive wins, going 2-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Minnesota opened the season up going 0-3, both straight up against the spread, but came up with a big win last week on the road at Carolina to also earn their first cover of the campaign. But I've got to be honest, my friends, their defense has been absolutely atrocious and beating the Panthers is no big achievement. A big mistake made by sports bettor's out there is judging a team by their previous performance. I can tell you the Chiefs did not play their best game last week when they did eke by the Jets on the road. This is a game they have to get back on track, get all their ducks in a row, and get their foot on the gas. Facing an inexperienced quarterback that just can't seem to get a grasp of the NFL in Bryce Young is a far cry from going up against the most accomplished quarterback in the league today in Patrick Mahomes. Don't expect the Vikings defense to have the same success here this week at all. As a matter of fact, they are in for a huge let down for sure. On the opposite side of the ball, the Kansas City defense has really been superb, allowing just 15.0 points per game. My friends, please remember that the Vikings offense ranks dead least in the league in turnovers. I expect that number to skyrocket and for them to keep their 32nd ranking in tact after this contest. I look for this game to get out of hand. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams

Touchdown play.

Game 468.

1:05 pm pst/4:05 pm est.

Guys I'm going to level with you. While, I think the Philadelphia Eagles are a good team. I mean obviously, they are at 4-0. I just don't think they're the same team they were even a season ago. I think this team is struggling a bit. And the oddsmakers are still treating them like the team they used to be. Yes, they are perfect so far this season. But let's take a look at some of their opponents: New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Washington Commanders (only one team with a winning record). Oh, by the way, they've only covered two of their four outings this season, too. The Los Angeles Rams are just 2-2 this season. However, they're a half a point away from covering all four outings. Let's start with some basics. First of all, the Eagles are traveling across the country. Jalen Hurts looks to be struggling. His numbers are certainly off from the season ago. And their defense has absolutely been atrocious. I mean come on folks, they allowed the Patriots to put up 20, the Vikings to put up 28, and the Commanders to put up 31. I see a major mismatch here between their 27th ranked pass defense and the explosive Rams passing offense, which ranks second in the NFL. On the flipside, I look for the seventh ranked pass defense of Los Angeles to wreak some havoc on Hurts and the 13th ranked passing attack in the league. I think the line is way off here. I think this is going to be a very tight game. To be honest with you, I feel Los Angeles has what it takes to possibly win this outright. But I will take four points at home with the Rams for sure. Thank you.

Houston Texans.

Bookie Buster.

Game 453.

10:00 am pst/1:00 pm est.

These two teams started the season very differently and now they’re heading in opposite directions again. The Atlanta Falcons started off the campaign winning their first two outings at home over both Carolina and Green Bay. But has since dropped road games against Detroit and Jacksonville. By the way, they failed to cover three in a row. The Houston Texans opened the season up with a road loss at Baltimore, and then a home loss against Indianapolis, only to win their next two games, the first on the road at Jacksonville, and the second at home against Pittsburgh. By the way, they've covered their last two outings. The last few weeks the Falcons defense have been nonexistent, while their offense has struggled badly. The opposite can be said for the Texans. Without question CJ Stroud is a quantum leap ahead of where Desmond Ridder. Stroud, who has 1,212 yards passing, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions, isn’t just producing, he is making zero mistakes. On the other hand, Ridder has only 744 yards passing, with only three touchdowns, and three interceptions. By the way, outside of running back, Bijan Robinson, Atlanta hasn't been too threatening offensively. Defensively, these teams have very similar statistics, however, one that stands out and certainly favors Houston is that they rank ninth against the pass, while Atlanta ranks dead last in the league at 32nd in passing. This is huge, my friends. Football is streaky right now. The Texans are streaking. Take Houston. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

No Limit

Game 452.

6:30 AM PST/9:30 AM EST.

Guys, I am well aware that Jacksonville has become a fan favorite in London. And they did not have to travel last week following their win against Atlanta across the pond. But Buffalo has revenge in their eyes. These two teams met at Wembley stadium in 2015 when the Jaguars came out victorious, 34-31. Losing doesn't sit well with the Bills. Speaking of the team, following their season-opening embarrassing loss on national TV to a jets team minus Aaron Rodgers, the team has now won and covered three consecutive outings against some solid competition. In all sincerity, the Jaguars haven't had to face an opponent as complete as the Bills yet this season. Trevor Lawrence is struggling. And now has to line up against one of the most ferocious stop-units in the NFL. As a matter fact, Buffalo ranks fourth against the pass sixth in total yards allowed, second in points scored, and first in takeaways, snagging 11 already. And now that Josh Allen is back on track and doing what he does, I see him absolutely dissecting the 21st ranked pass defense of Jacksonville. This game is going to get out of hand while Buffalo gets their revenge. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Fresno State Bulldogs.

High Roller.

Game 369.

5:00 PM PST/8;00 PM EST.

Following their season-opening outright win as nearly a two-touchdown underdog at home against Texas Tech, there was a lot of excitement in the Wyoming camp. Granted, they won three of their last four outings, but they have really failed to impress me for sure. They played Texas tough for nearly three quarters a few weeks back, But, then the Longhorns went to town in the fourth quarter outscoring them, 21-0 to get the 31-10 win and no cover. If you're keeping records, please note that Wyoming has failed to cover their last three at home. Fresno State enters this matchup at 5-0 and ranked 24th in the nation. They have faced several good opponents in Purdue and Arizona State, winning and covering both of those contests, one as an underdog and one as a slight favorite. The other games that were huge favorites of 30, 27.5, and 25.5. Head-to-head with the Cowboys, the Bulldogs have now won and covered four consecutive meetings going back to 2017. However, the two most recent meetings, the last two seasons, they won 17-0 and 30-0. The matchups in this game heavily favor Fresno State. This is a team, granted that does not run the ball very well, but they rank 14th in the nation in passing, average over 36.4 points per game, and have yet to turn the ball over. I just don't see the very lackluster, very mediocre defense of Wyoming slowing them down, let alone stopping them. On the flipside, the Cowboys can't pass the ball at all. They rank 127th in that category. They rely solely upon the run, of which they do adequately. If there is one major mismatch here, it is their ground game going up against the 16th ranked rush defense of the Bulldogs. Overall, Fresno State allows a mere 17.0 points per game and has already snagged eight turnovers. This game isn't even close. It gets out of hand. Lay the short price with the Bulldogs. Thank you.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Crusher.

333.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

Louisville might be 5-0, but this week they're currently ranked 25th in the nation. What does that tell you? It tells you they haven't played anybody good yet. And yet they've only covered two games so far this season. This is a major step up in class for the Cardinals, as they face a Fighting Irish opponent that that has faced some good opposition already. They covered against Ohio State a few weeks ago and played them extremely tough as the game came down to the final minutes. They followed that loss up by dominating Duke on the road a week ago. The Fighting Irish rank 10th in the nation, being the only team in the top-10 with a loss. They cannot afford another one. Therefore, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas here and easing up a bit even though they have the Trojans on deck. This is a game they have to rev the engines from start to finish and get some style points from the pollsters. Prior to the season starting, many thought Louisville will have one of the most-explosive offenses in college football. But only putting up 21 points against Indiana and 13 points against NC State tells me a lot about this offensive unit. And they have yet to face a defense as ferocious as they're going to line up against this week in the Notre Dame stop-unit, which has allowed just 13.0 points per game. I just don't see the out of sync QB, Jack Plummer having too much success in the air here. I do see him adding to his six INT's already. On the flipside, look for the Notre Dame well-balanced “O” to move the chains at will, get into the red zone, and put points on the board. In my opinion, they should be favored by double-digits. So, let’s lay the short price here and take the Fighting Irish. Thank you.

Michigan Wolverines.

Oddsmakers mistake.

Game 401.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

My friends, Michigan is sitting pretty right now. They are a perfect 5-0, ranked second in the nation in the polls, and don't have a very tough opponent for quite a while until November 11, when they face Penn State. Normally you would think that you don't want to lay this type of wood when they have several weeks of pushover opposition upcoming. But they can't let themselves get stale, that's for sure. They also can’t put in a lackluster performance in which a result might be drop in the polls. These days style points mean a lot my friends. They have dominated Minnesota, taking nine of the last 10 meetings straight up, covering eight of those 10, which includes wins and covers in the last two meetings. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they got their first cover since last December last week, against the Ragin' Cajuns. This is a team that has really not impressed at all. They couldn't cover against Nebraska, Eastern, Michigan, North Carolina, or Northwestern. It was the last two games that I really focused on. Granted, they were on the road in both of those outings, but they got crushed at the hands of the Tar Heels offense, and then against the very mediocre Wildcats, they were just simply outplayed. The Wolverines possess one of the most well-balanced offensive units in college football. They average over 34.4 points per game and they've only committed one turnover. Defensively, they are the top stop-unit in the nation, allowing a mere 6.0 points per game, ranking 11th against the pass and 14th against the rush. By the way, they've already snagged five takeaways, too. This game will get seriously out of hand. But remember it's only the second game back for Coach Harbaugh, and last week against Nebraska on the road, they devoured the Cornhuskers, 45-7. This team will go above and beyond with their coach back on the sidelines to crush the Golden Gophers. As I mentioned earlier, style points mean a lot right now, especially being they’re playing some less than great opposition in the upcoming schedule. Take Michigan. Thank you.

Kentucky Wildcats.

Shocker.

Game 329.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

With all due respect to the Georgia Bulldogs, how did they really earn the number one spot this season? In my opinion they really haven't impressed me all that much. Yes, they are a very good team. But this is a team that has only covered one of their five outings, and that was against Ball State my friends. They failed to cover against Tennessee-Martin, South Carolina, UAB, and most recently, Auburn. But in all sincerity, I'm not sold on their offense, folks. One thing I know about the Kentucky Wildcats, they have a real-deal defense. Not only that my friends, but they very quietly have accumulated a record of 5-0 straight, up covering four of their five outings this season. They too, won and covered against Ball State, along with victories and ATS wins for us against Akron, Vanderbilt, and Florida. They did not cover as they took it easy and let their foot off the gas against Eastern Kentucky. They certainly impressed me shutting down Florida's “O” a week ago.  This is a team holding opponents to just 75.8 rushing yards per game. The rush is not a strength of the Bulldogs. But if they can slow down the rush, they can certainly get to quarterback, beck and force some mistakes. Offensively, the Wildcats, leave a lot to be desired, but they don't make many mistakes, and they do have a more than adequate ground game. With an offense that makes very few mistakes, a decent ground attack, and a ferocious stop-unit, I think this game is going to be a lot closer than the 14.5-point spread. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.

Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Friday Night Lights.

Game 317.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Yes, it's true, both teams sit a 2-3 straight up this season. It is also true, neither has been very impressive. However, I just can't see Illinois laying points to any opponent out there. This is a team that hasn't covered a game since November of last season. They have also failed to cover five consecutive games played at home. Nebraska's played very competitively for most of the season until last week’s, 45-7 loss at the hands of Michigan at home. But I think we can all agree, the Wolverines are one of the top teams in the country and taking a beating from them shouldn't warrant too much shame. I'll look for them to bounce back here. You may not realize this because their numbers overall aren’t very impressive, but the Cornhuskers rank 15th nationally in rushing, averaging over 209.0 yards per game on the ground. They have the ability to control the tempo on the clock and keep the Fighting Illini’s “not so fighting defense” on the field, and their offense of it. One more item folks, they also possess the nation’s 15th ranked run defense. Thus, getting Illinois lackluster offense off the field in a hurry. I like the line here. Take Nebraska. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Consensus Play.

Game 274.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 EST.

My friends, I think the line is a little off here. I think it should be closer to a -9 or even -10. Yes, I know Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots got a win    ND cover last week on the road against the Jets. But haven’t they beat them like 15 straight times? Let’s look at their performance prior to last week when they beat a Jets team with a shaky quarterback. They opened up the season losing, 25-20 at home against Philadelphia, and then followed it up also at home, losing to Miami, 24-17. Last week’s win and cover was a rarity. That was their first win since January 1. And that was the first cover since December 12 of last year. I know “the Hoodie” is an amazing coach. But he just doesn’t have the personnel any more, my friends. Let’s look at Dallas. They opened up the campaign annihilating the New York Giants on the road, 40-0, then followed that up with a Week 2 win at home against the New York Jets, 30-10. Last week as an 11-point favorite, they lost outright on the road to Arizona, 28-16. This is a perfect “bounce back” situation for the Cowboys. I know they took a serious blow when they lost CB, Trevon Diggs. But this team is loaded and they have a lot of play makers on defense. I mean they rank third in points allowed, yielding just 12.7 points per game. They’ve already snagged seven takeaways as well. They are a little bit better against the pass than they are against the rush. But let’s face it, the New England 26th ranked scoring offense…to put it very simply, is lackluster. I doubt Mac Jones will have any success in the air here, even without Diggs in the secondary. And in all sincerity, their rushing attack isn’t very threatening. Defensively, they put up some decent numbers overall. But they did give up 25 points to the Eagles and 24 points to the Dolphins. Last week when they only allowed the Jets to put up 10 points…well guys, that’s the Jets. I see Dallas bouncing back with authority here getting the win and cover at home. By the way, the Patriots are just 1-3 ATS their last four on the road, while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS their last nine games played in their house. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Oregon.

High Roller.

Game 173.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

As of post, there are currently six teams in the Pac-12 ranked in the top-25 in the nation. There are also five teams in the Conference, that has started the season off at 4-0. This week, Oregon faces Stanford. In my opinion, the Pac-12’s preseason highest-touted team, USC, although is very strong, has a defense that is very beatable. This is the Ducks last opportunity to fine-tune their skills before serious conference competition. They have the Huskies up next. This is a team that has no problems running up scores. So far this season they’ve been favorites of 48, 4.5, 38, and 21.5, covering all four outings. Meanwhile, the Conference’s worst team, the Stanford Cardinal are 1-3 overall, which does include an 0-2 record in Pac-12 play. They opened the season with a respectable win and cover on the road at Hawaii. Then got shredded by USC, and believe it or not, Sacramento State, before losing a tight one at home against Arizona. Last year’s meeting saw Oregon shred Stanford at home, 45-27. That marked the third win and cover for the Ducks over the Cardinal in the last four meetings. Quarterback Nix, looks like he has found a home at the helm of the Oregon offense. So far this season he has a 79.4 completion percentage, thrown for over 1,169 yards, with 11 TDs and just one INT. He has an arsenal of receivers at his disposal along with a trio a very solid ball-carriers. As a matter of fact, running backs, Irving, James, and Whittington have combined for over 660 yards rushing and 11 TDs on the ground. The defensive of Oregon is almost as impressive, as their stop-unit ranks 10th against the pass, 33rd against the rush, and 17th nationally in points allowed, yielding just 13.3 points per game. Oh, by the way, going back to their offense, every aspect of it ranks in the top-10 in the nation, while not turning the ball over at all. My friends, in all sincerity Stanford is atrocious. They can’t score offensively and they can’t stop anyone defensively. I look for Nix to have his finest performance of the season thus far against the 126th ranked pass defense of Stanford. In an era where style points count for something in the polls, look for Oregon to light up Stanford like it’s the Fourth of July. Take the Ducks. Thank you.

Georgia.

VI MOVE.

Game191.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Believe it or not, Georgia is one of only three undefeated teams left in the SEC. The nation’s top-ranked team needs to pile up victories and pile them up with big margins for sure. What a better team to face than Auburn. The Bulldogs have had their way with the Tigers, taking six in a row and nine of the last 10 meetings, both straight up and against the spread. Just going back, the last three years, Georgia has won by margins of 21, 24, and 32 points. Don’t put too much stock in the fact that this team has only covered one of their four games this season. None of those pointspreads were less than 26 points. They had each of the games won and started pulling starters out. This is a Conference matchup and with the Kentucky Wildcats up next, I expect the Georgia Bulldogs to flex their muscles and show the rest of the Conference that they deserve to be the top team in it as well as in the country. The Tigers started the season off winning three straight before stepping up in class on the road and getting embarrassed, 27-10 at the hands of the Aggies in College Station. That no cover marked the third consecutive for Auburn as they couldn’t cover in the SU win on the road at Cal and also failed to cover a big pointspread at home against Samford. While they’re defense seems to be adequate. They have not faced an offense of the caliber that they will face here this week. On the flipside, I doubt very much they’re going to move the chains at all against the stout, 10th ranked Georgia “D”, which has allowed just 11.3 points per game. One more item that has really stood out to me: the Bulldogs defense has snagged seven takeaways. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense have already coughed the ball up four times. Look for the Georgia defense to create some turnovers here and capitalize them with ease. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.

Louisville.

Friday Night Lights Play.

Game 113.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Louisville is only one of two ACC teams to have started this season off 2-0 in Conference play and 4-0 overall. Going back to last season, the Cardinals have won five consecutive outings SU. While NC State is off to a 3-1 start, they have been pointspread poison, failing to cover all four outings thus far this season. This is nothing new for the Wolfpack, as they have failed to cover five in a row and eight of the last 10 going back to last October. The only bright spot for the team has been their rushing game. However, sometimes statistics can be very deceiving. They piled up yardage on the ground against both Connecticut and VMI. I doubt they will have the same success against a very stout, Louisville defense, which has only allowed 19.0 points per game. Offensively, I don’t see how the Wolfpack can slow down, let alone stop the well-balanced offense of the Cardinals, which are accounting for over 43.0 points per game. The 1-2 punch of quarterback, Jack Plummer and running back, Jawhar Jordan will not just move the chains at will, but will light up the scoreboard here. Louisville just has too much fire power. And to be honest, they know if they play things right, they have a chance at competing for the Conference crown. Take the Cardinals. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

MNF GOM.

Game 478.

4:15 PMPST/7:15PM EST.

Granted, Philadelphia is 2-0 this season. But in all sincerity, they really haven’t impressed me too much. Their defense has allowed 24.0 points per game against the likes of New England and Minnesota. I understand they own one of the top rushing offenses in football right now. But the Tampa Bay run defense has been stellar, yielding just 54.0 yards per game on the ground. I don’t have too much faith in Jalen Hurts and the NFL’s 29th ranked passing unit. And they must face a frustrating “D” that has already snagged five takeaways. In my opinion, the Buccaneers wins against the Vikings and Bears having more impressive. Offensively, it’s tough to put any real faith in Baker Mayfield. However, this unit has not turned the ball over yet, which is huge. By the way, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS their last 14 as a road favorite. And going back to the start of last season, away from home, they are a dismal, 3-7 ATS overall. This game does include last year’s Super Bowl. Home ‘dog on Monday night is the way to go. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you.

Miami Dolphins.

No Limit.

Game 462.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Miami dolphins have played some stellar football thus far in this young season, going 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. As a matter of fact, as far as us, sports bettors are concerned, they have covered five straight games going back to last season. They face a Denver Broncos team that was supposed to be much improved this year. However, after both losses, and no covers at home against Las Vegas and Washington, they now hit the road. Russell Wilson and the offense finally put up some points. But it was is a losing effort against the Commanders. Let’s face it, the Broncos defense was supposed to be their strength again this season. And yet, Washington posted 35 points on them. This is Miami’s first home game. They have a loyal fan base that will further motivate them here and big part of another victory for this team. To add insult (no pun intended) to injury, the Bronco’s secondary is a little banged up. Look for Tagovailoa to have his best performance yet this season. Take the Dolphins. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Ten Dimes.

Game 463.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bills have extremely high expectations again this season. They are tired of being a bridesmaid. Following their season-opening loss to the Jets, sans Aaron Rodgers, they bounced back last week to absolutely crush the Raiders. Not only did their defense step up, play strong, and create turnovers, but Josh Allen played mistake free football. Great effort from running back, James Cook as well. Going back to Allen, he really wants to shake the reputation of being mistake-prone. I understand the Washington Commanders are off to a 2-0 start. But before we begin handing out Lombardi Trophies to Ron Rivera and his team, let’s please remember that this team has a lackluster offense, and a defense that sprung a lot of leaks a season ago. Their supposed “stop-unit” allowed the lackluster, Denver Broncos “O” to post 33 points on them last week.  Quarterback, Sam Howell has a whopping, three starts at this level under his belt. And trust me when I tell you, none of the defenses he had to lineup against were as tough, as talented, or as angry as a defense he’s going to face this week. That Week 1 loss the Buffalo Bills experienced will not only make them a better team, it will make them a team looking for vengeance. They outclass the Washington Commanders in every aspect of the game. Lay the points with Buffalo. Thank you.

Washington State.

No Limit.

Game 376.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Both teams are 3-0 straight up. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread. But that’s where their similarities end. Oregon State has faced the likes of San Jose State, UC Davis, and San Diego State. Meanwhile, Washington State has gone up against Colorado State, Wisconsin, and Northern Colorado. Granted their last opponent leaves a lot to be desired. But they have gone up against some very stiff competition and have played very well. They can counter the Beavers strong rushing attack with an extremely stout run defense. And I just don’t see Oregon State slowing down their explosive passing attack. Prior to last season’s meeting, the Cougars had won eight consecutive matchups in this rivalry straight up, going 6-3 against the spread. They will get revenge from last year’s loss. Take Washington State. Thank you.

Georgia Tech.

Contrarian play.

Game 315.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

All the stats so far this season would support taking Wake Forest here. I mean why not? They are 3-0 straight up. But in all sincerity, look at the teams they have beaten; Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominion. Meanwhile, despite being 1-2, Georgia Tech has gone up against Louisville, South Carolina, and ‘Ole Miss. The line is off here. The Yellow Jackets match up well with the Demon Deacons. They’re pretty well-balanced offensively. They have a heck of a quarterback in King, who has already tallied nine TDs and just one INT. The line is off. Take the ‘dog. Thank you.

Maryland.

High Roller play.

Game 379.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Guys, I’ve got to tell you, I rarely pick a game because of their previous week’s performance. But when Maryland came back and scored 42 unanswered points last week to win and cover over Virginia, it showed me what the team is made of. Meanwhile Michigan State is, how can I put this, “a hot mess.” I know there are 2-1, both straight up against the spread. But their two wins and covers were against Central Michigan and Richmond. Teams they were favorite by 14 and 29 points. When they went up against Washington last week, they got humiliated by a score of 41-7. This is a big game for both teams as they enter conference competition. Quarterback, Tagovailoa, has had huge success against the Spartans. In two starts against them, he has thrown for over 664 yards passing with three touchdowns in the air. Defensively, the Terrapins will completely shut down the lackluster “O” of the Spartans. By the way, Maryland has not won five consecutive games going back to last season and have covered four of their last six. I am not afraid of this line at all. And neither should you be. Take the Terrapins. Thank you.

TCU.

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 384.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

I’m going to give TCU a mulligan on their season-opening loss to the very well hyped and publicized Colorado team. Over the last two weeks I think we would all agree the Buffaloes are a decent team headed by a very good coach. Many teams would’ve folded like a cheap suit after that game. They came out and bounced back to crush Nicholls State, 41-6. Then last week on the road, shredded Houston, 36-13. Please don’t forget that a season ago, this was one of the top teams in college football as they started the regular season, 12-0. They lost their final game of the regular season, then beat up on Michigan in a Bowl game to earn a spot in the National Title game. Yes, they were humiliated by Georgia. But this is a team that takes no opponent lightly. SMU is a good team. But this is their first attempt as a member of the Big 12. And I believe they are in way over their head. If you recall a season ago, this team took losses at the hands of Maryland, yes…TCU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Tulane during the regular season. Then they lost to BYU in a Bowl. This season they did destroy the likes of Louisiana Tech and Prairie View A&M. But sandwiched in between those two victories, they got destroyed on the road and Oklahoma. That is the same Sooners team that the Horned Frogs destroyed last October, 55-24. That season-opening loss will further motivate TCU not to take their foot off the gas here. Take the Horned Frogs. Thank you.

Air Force Falcons.

Friday Night Lights play.

Game 313.

7:30 PM PST/10:30 PM EST.

I have been reading that Air Force, despite possessing one of the top defenses of the country, really hasn’t played any strong opponents as of yet. But folks, if you looked at last year’s schedule, when they did play some solid opponents, their defense was one of the best in the country, holding opponents to 20 points or less in 12 of the 13 overall outings. This does include a late-December Bowl win and cover against Baylor. San Jose State is just 1-2, with their only victory coming against Cal Poly SLO. They did play a couple of formidable foes in Oregon State and Toledo. But I’ve got to be honest, they really didn’t show me too much. I don’t think they’re going to have too much success moving the ball here against the Falcons stout defense. And I do see Air Force continuing to do what they do best, and that is rushing the ball with success. The Spartans aren’t the team that we’ve come to know over several seasons being pointspread royalty. They are now pointspread bums. They finished last season failing to cover seven consecutive outings. Take Air Force. Thank you.

New Orleans Saints.

MNF Winner.

Game 289.

4:15 PM PST/7:15 PM EST.

New Orleans opened up the season with a win, while Carolina did not. Derek Carr seems to have adjusted quite well to his new team and the role of quarterback and team leader. While I think we could all agree that Bryce Young has a bright future in this league, it’s going to take a while for him to adapt to the speed and the intricacies of the NFL. I don’t expect him to get in sync with his offense anytime soon. There is a reason why preseason predictions have the Saints running away with their division. This is an ideal opportunity for them to make a statement to a division rival and furthermore to the rest of the NFC South…that they are the top team in the division. On both sides of the ball, Carolina might be missing some key players (check status). New Orleans, which is certainly a little deeper, has a seasoned veteran quarterback at the helm, and reportedly a much-improved defense. You can expect head coach, Dennis Allen to throw everything at the rookie quarterback, Young, but the kitchen sink. The Saints defense will go at the Panthers offense and wreak havoc, forcing mistakes and at the very least, getting them off the field quickly. Thus, allowing New Orleans QB Carr to work his magic. Take the Saints. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

No Limit.

Game 265.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Guys, I really feel the wrong team is favored here. I like the matchups for Green Bay very much. While both teams are truly a work in progress, I think the Packers are a little further along. As far as ATS trends go, the Falcons are 3-13 ATS the L16 in the second of consecutive home games. Meanwhile, the Pack are 5-1 ATS in the second of consecutive away games the last six times in that situation. Green Bay shut down the Chicago ground game last week. I feel they can do the same here against Atlanta, and if so, will make it a lot tougher for Falcons quarterback, Desmond Ridder to have any success in the air. He had some trouble last week against the less than stellar Panthers defense. Without a running game he is going to be a sitting duck and turn the ball over. Take Green Bay. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

High Roller.

Game 270.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Sports fans, all week long I’ve been reading about how Detroit got lucky winning on the road at Kansas City because they were missing a couple of key players. They still went on the road in Kansas City, the defending Super Bowl Champions and beat them. I am well aware of the fact that Seattle has had their number. The Seahawks have won five in a row, covering the last four going back to 2015. However, the worm has turned my friends. If people want to keep saying Detroit is just a lucky team, then they must be one of the luckiest teams on the planet. The second half of last season they went 8-2 their final 10 games covering nine of the 10 final contests.  Now they return home for the first game in this campaign with a very big fan base in a very loud stadium. The Seahawks, lack of offensive prowess has been highly publicized. And now a couple of their offense of lineman are a little banged up (check status). The lions defense stepped up big time against some solid opposition a season ago. They come into this game with a little momentum following the Chiefs match up. I’m not a big fan of Geno Smith, guys. And to be honest with you, although Pete Carroll deserves the respect, I think his best days are in the rearview. Lay the points with the Lions at home. Thank you.

Fresno State Bulldogs.

Late Bailout.

Game 209.

7:30 PM PST/10:30 PM EST.

At first glance, you may think that Arizona State at home getting a field goal is the play here. I mean why not? The Sun Devils play in a bit stronger of a conference for sure. And they are at home. But there’s a few things you may not know. For starters, ASU just came off an ugly loss at home against Oklahoma State. Up next for this team is USC at home as well. I think this is a definite sandwich spot, or even a lookahead spot in which FSU can catch them off guard. Next up, these two teams met a few years back in December bowl matchup in which Fresno State took down Arizona State, 31-20, so they have the confidence of knowing they beat this opponent before. And then there’s the fact that the Bulldogs took down the Boilermakers in Week 1 on the road, 39-35 as a 4.0-point underdog. Fresno State is also riding an 11-game SU win streak, which does include a Bowl win last December against Washington State. There is too many questions offensively and a big concern on defense too, for the Sun Devils. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.

Penn State Nittany Lions.

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 127.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM PST.

My friends, Penn State should be at least an 18 to 21-point favorite in this matchup. If there is a true mismatch on the board this Saturday in college football, this game is it. My friends, it was just last season that the Illinois defense was making headlines. This season, not so much. They have failed to cover both outings so far, as they eked by Toledo, 30-28 as a 7.5-point favorite and then lost, 34-23 on the road at Kansas, as a 3.5-point underdog. Their defense has sprung a big leak. Granted, Penn State really didn’t have any opposition thus far, winning and covering at home against both West Virginia and Delaware. But don’t forget that this team has been money against the spread, covering nine straight games going back to last season. Might I remind you they’ve been big favorites on more than one occasion during that span. This is their first conference matchup, and the Nittany Lions must make a statement to the rest of the Big Ten. Penn State has gotten the better of Illinois, winning and covering three of the last four overall meetings. Going back a bit, they have covered three of the last four contests played at Illinois as well. Without the defensive mind of Ryan Walters, who departed for Purdue, I just don’t see the Fighting Illini putting up much of a fight against the well-balanced offense of the Nittany Lions. They have a smart coach, a seasoned quarterback, and a seven-game straight up winning streak going back to last year. PSU needs to make a splash in this conference. And what better way than to shred Illinois here. Take Penn State. Thank you.

Kansas State Wildcats.

High Roller.

Game 129.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Coming into this matchup, Kansas State ranks 15th in the nation. Guys, to be very blunt, Missouri’s offense is a mess. They failed to cover, despite winning straight up against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee State. To be even more blunt, I just don’t see their lackluster offense keeping pace with Will Howard and the explosive, Kansas State “O”.  If you recall, these two teams met a season ago as the Wildcats shredded the Tigers, 40-12. To be quite honest, not too much has changed on the Missouri side of the ball to think that this game will have any different of an outcome. The Tigers, as I mentioned earlier, have a lackluster offense. If they couldn’t move the ball very well, or I should say with ease against their two less than stellar opponents already, I just don’t see them moving the ball here. And if that is the case, their defense is going to be spending a lot of time on the field, facing the very well-balanced offense of the Wildcats. I mean, after all, this team possessing a dangerous backfield, and one of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football today. This explosive unit put points a season ago against just about every opponent they went up against. Need a remind you, they play some very good opposition. They also covered 10 of the 13 outings during the last year’s regular season. This is a small number to lay on the road here. Lay it and take your bookmaker’s money. Take Kansas State. Thank you.

Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Touchdown Play.

Game 132.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST. 

(PLEASE NOTE, I accidentally hit the wrong button when posting this game yesterday. The analysis and pick was for the Bulldogs, as I wanted it,. But I did hit the wrong team when posting originally. THIS IS THE CORRECT POST. My apologies. Good luck-JD 

A big mistake made by many in sports betting is judging a team by their previous week’s performance. Of course, LSU was supposed to destroy Grambling a week ago. But their season opening loss on the road at Florida State, I believe, showed us a lot about this team. Also, to any of us sports bettors, this is a team that is just 1-7 ATS the last eight as a road favorite. Guys, I am well aware of the fact that LSU has covered the last two years in this match up. And I do put a bit of stock in trends and streaks. However, going on the road and laying nearly double-digits against a very game team looking for a little revenge, I feel is a gift. Going back to last season the Bulldogs have now won five in a row straight up, going 4-1 against the spread. Outside of a couple of expected drubbing at the hands of Alabama and Georgia a season ago, this team has been competitive in every single game they have played since the beginning of last season. They can run the ball, which means they can control the tempo and the clock here, keeping the LSU defense on the field, and their offense off of it. You can bet your butt that the Bulldogs coaching staff watched the game film of the LSU/FSU matchup more than once, and will take a page out of it and apply it here. Take the points with Mississippi State. Thank you.

Florida State Seminoles.

ACC Game of the Month.

Game 117.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

With Clemson already at 1-1 overall, which does include an 0-1 conference record, Florida State has a legitimate shot at taking the ACC crown this season. This team came out of the chute and blasted LSU as a one-point underdog in Week 1, 45-24. If there was going to be a letdown situation, it would’ve been last week when they did cover as a 31-point favorite over Southern Miss at home, 66-13. This is their last game against a pushover before they take on some serious conference opponents. They have Clemson up next. This is their last opportunity to fine tune their offense and defense. And trust me, they are not going let their foot off the gas against an ACC foe. They face a Boston College opponent here that fell way short in their season opener, dropping a 27-24 home game against Northern Illinois as an eight-point favorite. If they were going to show some moxie, they would’ve done it last week when they eked by Holy Cross by only three points as a double-digit favorite. Over the last four seasons, the Seminoles have taken four meetings against the Eagles, both straight up and against the spread. Last year’s matchup saw an absolute beat down as Florida State thumped Boston College, 44-14. Offensively, the Eagles are very little threat as they’re having trouble both on the ground and in the air. Defensively, it’s going to be a long day for their defense, going up against one of the most explosive offenses in the country, that is accounting for over 55.5 points per game. The Seminoles are equally strong on the ground and in the air. They have a very solid, rushing attack to control the tempo and the clock, while their explosive air assault can go down field at well. Take Florida State. Thank you.

Maryland Terrapins.

Friday Night Lights

Game 110.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

This is the final tune-up game for Maryland before they go into some serious conference play. These two teams haven’t faced one another in a decade, since they were both in the same conference. Let’s start with the Cavaliers folks. Virginia opened the season by getting shellacked, 49-13 on the road at Tennessee. Then last week at home against James Madison, they took a one-point loss. Guys this was supposed to be a very big win for them, especially because they had a dedication ceremony to the players that unfortunately passed away not that long ago. There was a break in the action due to some weather issues, but this is a team that couldn’t get past James Madison, my friends. Going back a bit, they have failed to cover five consecutive outings, and eight of the last nine overall contests. Now they have to take it on the road on a short week, coming off a devastating loss. By the way folks, this team is only touted to win 3.5 games this season. Maryland on the other hand, plays in a very tough conference and is looking to pad their win/loss record before going into conference play. This is a team that going back to last season has won four in a row straight up and three of the last five against the spread. They started the season with two decisive victories over Towson and Charlotte. Granted, they didn’t cover either game, but laying 38 and 24 points, they had easy wins, going into the last portion of both outings, so they eased back a bit. There’s no question that the Terrapins possess the better quarterback in Tagovailoa. He has more experience and savvy at the helm. And believe it or not, this team possesses the much stronger stop-unit. By the way, my friends, Maryland has taken four of the last five against ACC opponents. This may be a lot of points, but I’m not afraid to lay it. Take the Terrapins. Thank you.

Las Vegas Raiders.

NFL ANGLE PLAY.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

With a new quarterback at the helm and signing their running back to a long-term deal, the Las Vegas Raiders are entering the 2023 regular season with excitement. Many out there will say the same for the Denver Broncos. However, an aging quarterback with a lackluster offense, which in turn had their defense spending too much time on the field last season and springing leaks, I feel this team is in trouble. For the Raiders, what better team to face than the Broncos. For us sports bettors, they have covered nine of the last 10 meetings, going back to September, 2018. They have also won eight of the last 10 straight up, which includes six consecutive matchups with their division rival. Jimmy Garoppolo had a 40-17 regular season record as a starter in six seasons with the San Francisco 49ers. He’s got some big receivers, including superstar wideout, Davante Adams. In the backfield, Josh Jacobs, who had 1,653 yards rushing a season ago is a workhorse. With a solid passing game and an incredible ground attack, this offense is going to be very hard to defend. Speaking of defense, Las Vegas certainly beefed up their stop-unit in the off-season. Let’s face it, Wilson is not the quarterback he once was. He doesn’t have the legs as he did in his youth. And without a solid ground attack, I feel the Broncos “O” is going to struggle once again this season. On paper, it looks like Denver has edges both overall on the roster and in coaching. But the last time this team beat the Raiders by more than one-point on their home field, was back in 2017. Playing in Mile High doesn’t offer the big advantage it once did. If you recall a season ago, the Broncos failed to cover four of their first five at home. This is way too many points to give a very hungry visitor, which has had their way in this series for years. By the way, Denver has failed to cover six straight as a divisional home favorite. Take Las Vegas. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

No Limit.

Game 459.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Jacksonville Jaguars enters this season with confidence, being touted as the top-team in the AFC South. They will begin the campaign the same way they finished last year’s campaign, with momentum. The Jags completed the regular season winning five straight then won the Wildcard contest, and fell just short in the divisional round. As far as us sports bettors go, they were money, going 9-2 ATS their last 11 contests, which includes both postseason outings. Speaking of covering the number, they face an opponent here, covering six of their last seven meetings against. On the other hand, the Colts were a dismal, 4-12-1 SU a season ago, failing to cover 11 of 17 outings. Rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson will be making his first pro start here, after making a mere, 13 college starts for Florida. In my opinion, the youngster is in way over his head in this matchup. Not only are there major concerns surrounding the offensive line, but he doesn’t have stellar ball-carrier, Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. The star running back will be out of action for the first four games of the season. Jacksonville QB, Trevor Lawrence matured significantly last season. The “O” is well-balanced, possessing three solid rushers, along with an arsenal of talented receivers. Lawrence will absolutely pick apart the very beatable pass defense of Indy here. The Colts playing on their own field hasn’t been an advantage, dropping their last five games played at home SU, and going 1-4 ATS in that span. Meanwhile, the Jags took three of their last four as a visitor a season ago SU, finishing with four ATS covers. Take Jacksonville. Thank you.

New Orleans Saints.

Late Info Move.

Game 464.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The line in this game is a bit off. At home, in the Superdome, in front of their loyal, loud, faithful fans, the Saints should more of a favorite. Maybe it’s because RB, Alvin Kamara will be missing three games, serving a suspension. Maybe it’s because the offense has a new QB at the helm in Derek Carr, who didn’t see very much playing time in the preseason. Or maybe it’s because last season, the New Orleans defense had some ugly performances. But, in the offseason, they signed ball-carrier, Jamaal Williams, the NFL’s touchdown leader a season ago. Carr is a veteran, who by the way, is reunited with his former coach, Dennis Allen. Maybe it gets overlooked, but the play-caller brings a ton of experience and solid stats to the table. He also has newly-acquired TE’s, Foster Moreau and Jimmy Graham. And back from an injury, WR, Michael Thomas is reported to be in solid form. Despite owning the League’s top-rushing defense, the Titans slumped last season, losing their final seven contests SU, only covering once, the last game of the season. The Tennessee offense has some outstanding talent. But they did rank among the worst in football in passing. The team beefed up their receiving core with the addition of WR, DeAndre Hopkins. As we all know, the success of this unit revolves around RB, Derek Henry. With some issues regarding their offensive line, especially without Nicholas Petit-Frere, Henry is carrying an even larger load on his shoulders…or should I say, legs. The line here is a gift. Take the Saints. Thank you.   

Pittsburgh Steelers.

Bookie Buster.

Game 466.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The 49ers are once again predicted to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. On both sides of the ball, San Francisco possesses some of the best talent in football. Back at the helm is QB, Brock Purdy. Exactly how stable, healthy, and successful he will be in his first game returning from injury and surgery on his elbow, is uncertain. On the stop-end, Nick Bosa is going to be starting, reportedly seeing action for most of the game. He heads one of the most-ferocious defenses in the NFL. But both, the 49ers offense and defense are in for a tough battle here. The Steelers, which made a strong finish a season ago, winning seven of their last nine contests SU, and covering 9 of their final 12 ATS, are coming into this season expected to be the cellar-dweller in the AFC North. Not a familiar situation for this storied franchise, team, and city. Head coach, Mike Tomlin is not one to take bad reports lightly. Kenny Pickett matured quite well and has become the leader of the team and a true favorite of the fans. The QB has a slew of talented playmakers at his disposal, both on the ground and in the air. The “O” sports a brick wall in one of the most experienced offensive lines in the game today. The luxury of RB, Najee Harris along with a few new additions, will move the chains here for sure. On the defensive side of the ball, Pittsburgh has the personnel to possibly be one of the stingiest in the League. A healthy, TJ Watt will wreak havoc on the untested and unsteady, Purdy. Let’s not forget, this is a “D” that allowed 18 or fewer points 11 times last season. San Fran is 1-5 ATS the last six season openers, while Pitt is 8-1-1 ATS the last 10 as a home ‘dog. Take the Steelers. Thank you.

Alabama Crimson Tide.

Marquee Game Winner.

Game 384.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Let’s put aside the fact that all the headlines this week wrote how successful Nick Saban has been against his former assistants, going 28-2 all-time against them. For the first time, in as far back as most of us can remember, Alabama did not make the College Football Playoff last season. Not only will he come out here to make a statement, he is going to come out here with a vengeance and make a statement against a top-10 ranked opponent on national TV at home. For starters, although Quinn Ewers is an excellent quarterback, there is a lot of questions surrounding his offensive line. Going up against a defense like Alabama possesses is going to be a nightmare for the quarterback here. I know that the Longhorns return 10 starters from last season. I am also well aware of the fact that Bryce Young has since departed the Crimson Tide and their offense is now in the hands of Milroe. But you must understand that Alabama is stacked higher and deeper than the pancakes at your favorite breakfast joint. Saban won’t take any chances here and rev the engines the entire game against a team that they eked by with a one-point victory a season ago. Guys, when playing at home, the Crimson Tide are on a 15-3 ATS run in Tuscaloosa. By the way, folks, Texas is just 1-5 ATS their last six nonconference road tilts and 3-9 ATS their last 12 versus SEC opponents. After last year’s close game scare, and being shunned for the CFP, Nick Saban is going to make an example of Texas here. Take Alabama. Thank you.

Oregon Ducks.

Touchdown Play.

Game 359.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

My friends, I am going to ask you to do a little bit of math here. The Oregon Ducks are the second-choice in the Pac 12, and are touted to win 9.5 games. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are supposed to be the fourth best in the Big 12, slated to win just 7.5 games. Now going to the preseason predictions to win the National Championship, the odds for the ducks are twice as strong as the Red Raiders. With the way, the USC defense has looked thus far, in my opinion Oregon and Washington are the best teams in that conference by far. You can’t say the same for the Big 12 as far as the Texas Tech goes. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas State are all rated significantly higher in the conference than is Texas Tech. They did finish last season strong, winning and covering their final four outings. However, they opened this season up with a very poor performance, losing outright, 35-33 as a 13.5-point favorite in Wyoming. Some bettors out there will think they’re going to bounce back strongly to make a point here. I think they exposed their weaknesses. This is a home game for the Red Raiders. But you cannot dismiss the fact that the Ducks are a monster road team, accounting for 34, 49, 42, 49, and 44 points against some solid opposition. They also have a well-balanced offense, equally strong in the air and on the ground. Bo Nix has found his home with this team. He is a stud, a good play-caller, and possesses a solid arm. He also has the luxury of having a monster ground attack. Oregon will control the clock and the tempo, keeping the Texas Tech defense on the field and their offense off of it. The Red Raiders rushed for just 95 yards against the Cowboys last week. If you can’t run the ball, you can’t keep opponent’s offenses on the sideline. And that is one thing you must do to at least slow down the juggernaut which is the Ducks offense. Don’t forget Texas Tech ranked 97th in opponents points per game last year and 102nd in yards per play against. They might come out here with some fire bellies. But they just don’t have the personnel to contend on the scoreboard in this one. Take Oregon. Thank you.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 303.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Sports fans, I keep reading that this is the first true test for Notre Dame this season. I’m looking at it at a different point of view. I think it’s their first opportunity to show the nation they are a true force to be reckoned with. Fighting Irish quarterback, Sam Hartman is no stranger to playing against this conference. The gunslinger left the ACC with the most touchdown passes in the history of the conference. And lit up this specific secondary for nearly 700 yards passing the last two meetings with NC State. Please don’t forget Notre Dame is 8-1-1 ATS the last nine versus the ACC just over the last two campaigns. Furthermore, they are also 14-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or less points the last 16 in the situation. I will admit that facing NC State is a step up from their last two opponents, Navy, and Tennessee State. But we all must admit that the Wolfpack didn’t have that easy of a time last week against the Huskies in their 24-14 victory over them on the road. We could all agree that Brennan Armstrong just doesn’t put up the same numbers anymore. And for him and the NC State offense, this is a very, very big step up in class from Connecticut. I just feel that they do not have either the playmakers or the depth to keep pace on the scoreboard in this matchup. Being around the hot number of 7.0 or 7.5 doesn’t scare me one bit. Take the Fighting Irish. Thank you.

Florida State Seminoles

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 232.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

My friends, my staff and I have come up with a line on this game that Florida State should be a three-point favorite. Please remember that they’re playing in Orlando, Florida. Also, remember that last year’s meeting, the Seminoles blocked a kick at the end of the game to win 24-23. They come into this meeting with confidence. Believe it or not, FSU comes in here with a lot less pressure on them. They also come in here very optimistic. Last year they were the only team in the country to lead its conference in both total offense and total defense. Now, I will tell you both starting quarterbacks are back. However, a major advantage gives FSU an edge here. LSU defensive tackle, Maason Smith has been suspended. Let me tell you how significant he is to the squad. Head coach, Brian Kelly tried to get a Week 0 game scheduled so he could actually serve out his suspension against a no-name team and be available for this game. While I believe the Tigers are a good team, I just don’t believe all the hype that they are a great team. Trust me when I tell you folks, Florida State is a great team. Defensively they are a little stronger, a little more consistent, and possess bigger playmakers overall. And they’re at 100% coming into this contest. Granted, it’s not technically a home game for the Seminoles. But playing in Orlando, Florida certainly gives them a lot more friendly fans in the stands. Please remember that a season ago LSU, during the regular season went 1-4 against the spread away from home. I still feel FSU should be the favorite. Take the points with the Seminoles. Thank you.

Ohio State Buckeyes.

NO LIMIT.

Game 165

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

The preseason polls have Ohio State figured to be one of the top teams in college football again this season. There are some questions about their quarterback because head coach Ryan Day hasn’t officially named the starter yet to replace CJ Stroud. My friends, this team is loaded on both sides of the ball and they do have one of the best wide receiver tandems in college football today. So any QB at the helm will thrive. They face a team that they have beaten 28 consecutive meetings, and which is supposed to finish this season dead last in their conference. The Buckeyes have averaged over 50.1 points per game in the last six meetings with the Hoosiers. But even more than that, my friends this game takes place 12:30 pst/3:30 PM EST. The other team in the conference that’s supposed to be the best and one of the highest touted teams in college football, the Michigan Wolverines have a contest early at 9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST against East Carolina at home. Follow this logic; if Michigan blows up East Carolina, Ohio State hast to keep their foot on the gas to keep pace with them and show them that they too are a team to be reckoned with. If the Wolverines maybe don’t cover against the Pirates, and it’s a little bit closer than many people think, then the Buckeyes still have to keep their foot on the gas to show the Wolverines that they are the best team coming out of the gate and possibly even solidify a top spot in the polls. Either way guys, Ohio State must crush Indiana. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t. Take the Buckeyes. Thank you.

Washington Huskies.

HIGH ROLLER.

Game 198.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

My friends, this might be one of the biggest mismatches on the college football board this Saturday. To say that the Pac 12 is in a state of flux, would be an understatement. The USC Trojans were supposed to run away with this conference this season. However, after watching their defense allow San Jose State to put up 28 points on them as they failed to cover last week, we must admit that they might have the same problems they had in recent years. Their defense, their defense, their defense!. Both the Oregon Ducks and the Washington Huskies are touted to vie for the PAC 12 title. And right now, I have to be honest, the Huskies are sitting in the catbird seat. There is no question Boise State is a solid team in the Mountain West. They are supposed to be the top team in the conference this season. If you recall, they went up against Oregon State in Week 1 of last season and got blown up, 34-17. Let’s be honest, they just don’t face the same level of competition as does their opponent here this weekend. Their “all-universe” quarterback, Hank Bachmeier has departed the team and is now wearing a Louisiana Tech uniform. The Broncos are also missing some of their coaching staff, who have also departed for bigger and better. Maybe the writing is on the wall. Guys, there is no way they can keep pace offensively with the high-flying squad headed by Michael Penix Jr. A season ago, the Huskies offense ranked number one in passing yards, number two in total yards, and number four in points scored. Oh, by the way, they also didn’t turn the ball over too much, ranking second in college football in that category. Statistics can be quite deceiving my friends. Last season, Boise State possessed one of the best pass defenses in the land. However, when you go up against run-heavy offenses, like they did (Wyoming, Air Force, San Diego State, UTEP, New Mexico, Oregon State) the statistics are going be padded for sure. This is not just a step up in class for their pass defense. This is a step up, step up, step up, like they’ve never experienced before. This is a true mismatch. Lay the two TDs with the Huskies. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

NFL POSTSEASON ANGLE PLAY.

Game 321.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

 There is no question in my mind both the 49ers and Eagles deserve to be in the NFC Championship game. I mean finally we can throw away the bones and just eat the meat on an NFC matchup folks. Guys, an enormous amount of Philadelphia’s success comes from their ability to run the football. Hence it comes from their offensive lines ability to manhandle opposing defensive lines. That’s not going to be the case here this week, folks. San Francisco’s defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed, No. 1 in total yards allowed, and No. 2 at stopping to rush. Oh, by the way they also rank 2nd in the League in takeaways, snagging 28 turnovers. And there is no way this defensive front is going to get manhandled. I’m not looking to take away anything from the Eagles offensive line. They are very good. But they’re not going to be able to manhandle their opponent here. That is going to seriously stunt their ground game. Jalen Hurts is a good quarterback. But I don’t think he would be the same quarterback put in other systems in the NFL. He’s also not 100%. And I think that will be an issue as well. Let’s face it guys, he isn’t the greatest passer in the world. And I really feel the San Fran secondary is going to add to their NFL-high 20 INT’s this season. You can also look for DE, Nick Bosa to have one of his best performances of the campaign as he goes up against LT, Jordan Mailata (Big mismatch, folks). Now defensively, Philly is pretty damn good as well. They are tops in the League against the pass and rank eighth in points allowed. They’re also pretty good at snagging takeaways, themselves. However, the 49ers “O” does not make many mistakes and does not turn the ball over very often. That is huge inn the playoffs, sports fans. Now, I keep hearing about how Brock Purdy is a rookie quarterback. Well folks, he spent four years as a starter in the Big 12. And he was on quite a few big game platforms in those four years. Now he’s in the NFL as a rookie. Yes, we all know he is a rookie. Well, he’s got seven games as a starter under his belt, which in case you’ve forgotten, are all victories. Guys, one more item on the subject of Purdy: when you are a “less-experienced” QB, you tend not to take any chances and force making plays. Therefore, make less mistakes. Keep that in mind. Listen folks, if you’re cooking in the kitchen and you’ve got Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in the recipe, that’s going to be a pretty damn fine meal. Throw in the mix, Deebo Samuel, and you got the best food on the planet. I don’t feel the Eagles defense will be able to contain every one of those weapons. Particularly, McCaffrey coming out of the backfield. He will be a big reason why San Francisco moves the chains at will here. By the way folks, Philly has only covered one of the last six games played in the month of January, one of the last five games played versus NFC opponents, and one of the last five games played overall. On the flipside, San Francisco has covered 20 of the last 26 in the month of January, 20 of the last 26 versus NFC foes, and 23 other last 31 overall. Take the points with the 49ers and get paid. Thank you.  

San Francisco 49ers.

NFC GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 318.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

I know, I know, I know all the headlines this week is that Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott, and the Dallas Cowboys finally won a playoff game last week. Well sports fans, look who they beat. With all respect to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they really weren’t a very good team. They couldn’t score, couldn’t stop opponents from scoring, have an aging quarterback, no running game, and are very weak in the trenches on both the offensive and defensive lines. So, let me ask you, who did the Cowboys really beat? Well, they enter this matchup against a San Francisco 49ers opponent that has rattled off 10 consecutive victories, covering eight of those 10 contests. Yes, I know Brock Purdy is a rookie quarterback. But my friends, he has the luxury of having Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, with all-purpose superstar, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and arguably the best tight end in the game in George Kittle at his disposal. Not only do the 49ers rank among the best in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.5-points per game, they also lead the NFL on the defensive side, allowing a mere 16.3-points per game. This isn’t just a team that can score tons of points and hope they get the last possession of the game. This is a team very complete on both sides of the ball. Dallas has not played a team like this in quite some time. As a matter of fact, outside of the Philadelphia Eagles game on Christmas Eve, in which they went up against back up quarterback, Gardner Minshew, they haven’t played a great team in quite a while. I am still not sold on Dak Prescott as he is one of the most erratic quarterbacks in the NFL. Let’s face it guys, he is shaky at best. They also turn the ball over quite a bit. Their offense has coughed up the ball 23 times, which does not bode well because the San Francisco defense ranks second in the League with 28 takeaways. On the flipside the Cowboys “D“ tops the league with takeaways. However, The 49ers “O“ rarely turns the ball over, ranking third in the League, only committing 17 turnovers. I just don’t feel the Cowboys stop-unit will be able to slow down, let alone stop the well-balanced offense of the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey, who is one of the most valuable players to his squad in the NFL, goes up against the 22nd ranked run defense in the NFL. By the way guys, say what you want to by Brock Purdy having very little experience. But the guy has tossed 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions for over 1,700 yards passing. He has a lot of weapons, as I mentioned, at his disposal. Too many for the Cowboys defense to keep up with. Dallas has failed to cover the last four games played following a straight up win, four of the last five playoff games, and nine of the last 11 January games. San Francisco is 12-2 ATS the last 14 home games, 20-7 ATS the last 27 versus the NFC, and 5-0 ATS the last last five Divisional Playoff games. Take the 49ers. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

98% ANGLE PLAY.

Game 315.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

My friends, I will tell you that both Cincinnati and Buffalo might have gotten a little lucky last week. I will also tell you that this is where Buffalo Bills fans are going to be very angry at me, that Josh Allen is one of the dumbest quarterbacks in this league. He makes a lot of stupid mistakes…a lot of stupid mistakes. Let’s face it, when he was at Wyoming, they had literally one of the worst ranked offenses in the nation. They had such a good defense, they kept him winning for a bit. He came to Buffalo and he is surrounded by good personnel. But he still makes stupid mistakes and he puts the defense in predicaments where they get tired. You know who isn’t a dumb quarterback… Joe Burrow. He won at LSU, he went to the Super Bowl last year, and instead of being in a hangover this year, this is a quarterback that has led his team to nine consecutive straight up victories, covering eight of the nine. Well let me rephrase that. Depending on when you bet the Bengals last week, you either won, pushed, or lost by a hook. I do believe both offenses will have success in the air. Both will struggle a bit on the ground, but eventually will get their ground games going. But this is going to come down to mistakes. And the Bills rank 30th in the NFL, committing over 27 turnovers. And you know what? Most of them fall on the shoulders of Allen. Yes, he has talent athletically. I’m not going to debate that. But his mind is mush. He makes a lot of stupid mistakes. I am going with the smarter, more stable, proven winner in Burrow. This game is going to be a tight one, coming down to whichever team makes fewer mistakes. And that will be Cincinnati. The Bills have only covered two of the last seven at home, one of the last six against teams with a winning record, and only two of the last seven playoff games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 6-1 ATS the last seven played the month of January, 36-17 ATS the last 53 on the road, and 5-1 ATS the last six in the playoffs. Take the points with the Bengals. Thank you.

New York Giants.

NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 303.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

As good as the Philadelphia Eagles record is, they come into the postseason failing to cover the last four outings. Oh, by the way, they’ve lost two of the last three straight up as well. Jalen Hurts, as we all know is not 100%. A lot of people are looking at the fact that New York also has lost more than they have won since mid-November. However, they have covered four straight and 14 of their 18 contests this season. No, they’re not flashy or flamboyant. But they do have a quarterback who doesn’t make many mistakes. Granted, they face a defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL against the pass. But what the Eagles do have problems with, and they’ve had problems with this all season, is well-balanced offenses. They have problems with offenses that could run the ball and then pass off the run. Well folks, Saquon Barkley is healthy and looking very, very good right now. We are talking about a running back who has tallied nearly 1,400-yards on the ground this season. Daniel Jones will keep the Philly defense honest by handing the ball off the Barkley, which will then open up the passing game. Because Barkley is such a strong ball-carrier, they will also eat up the clock and keep the Eagles “D” on the field and most importantly, their offense off it. The Eagles are a little hobbled and I do believe laying better than a touchdown is a huge mistake here. Remember one more item folks, nobody expected the Giants to get this far. There is no pressure on this team to win. All the pressure is on Philadelphia. New York has covered five of the last six meetings in Philadelphia. The road team has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in this series. Oh, by the way the Giants are also 5-0 ATS the last five games played on the road. Meanwhile, the Eagles have failed to cover the last four versus NFC opponents and the last five in the month of January. Take New York. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

Postseason Angle Play.

Game 301.

1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST.

My friends, you can say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, they are one of the most successful teams over the last several years. And yes, overall, this season they own a 14-3 record. However, this team is perennially overvalued. They have only covered five games on the campaign. And when playing host at Arrowhead Stadium, they have only covered one of their last nine. Let’s face it, this team is point spread poison. They face a red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars opponent here. This is a team that has won six consecutive outings straight up, going 5-1 against the spread. Yes, we all know they lost the November 13 matchup on the road to Kansas City. That was in the earlier stages of their development, where they were just trying to get in sync and on track. They followed that loss off with a win at home against Baltimore, then lost badly in Detroit, only to finish up the regular season winning out, before taking down Los Angeles a week ago in the WC round. It is specifically the Chargers win last week, being down badly and making a miraculous comeback that tells me how good this team really is. And furthermore, how good their quarterback is. The Jaguars are a much better team right now than the last time they faced the Chiefs. Let’s face it folks, Kansas City has looked very mortal this season. I mean just since the start of December, they’ve allowed Cincinnati to beat them and put up 27 points, then granted they rattled off five consecutive victories. But they allowed Denver to put up 28, Houston to put a 24, and Denver once again to put 24 on them. Their defense is looking fatigued and overworked. I think you’re going to see Trevor Lawrence have a lot of success here, especially coming in here motivated after last weeks come from behind victory. Jacksonville has covered seven of the last eight against AFC opponents and six of the last eight in the month of January. Take the Jaguars. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

MNF Winner.

Game 152.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Sports fans, here’s a couple of facts for you; the Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game in 30 years. Mike McCarthy, in his third year with the team, has yet to win a playoff game. Dallas is a lowly 6-18 ATS the last 24 games played in the month of January. And furthermore, they are 0-7 against Tom Brady, who already defeated them this season. Yes, I know I know I know, Tampa Bay has been point spread poison this season, going 4-12-1 against the number. But let’s face it, I doubt that things will change for Dallas here. I mean they needed last weeks win to significantly better their playoff situation. And yet they still could not earn a victory come crunch time. I am not a big fan of Mike McCarthy. I am not a big fan of Dak Prescott. Going back to Tampa Bay, you can’t argue Tom Brady is the most successful NFL playoffs player ever. When you come into the postseason it is a whole different monster. And there is no one better in January and February then Tom Brady. Understand that this is the first losing season as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Understand also Dallas has a lot more pressure on them than Tampa Bay. They had high hopes of being an NFC representative in the Super Bowl this season. Nobody expected too much of the Bucs. Let’s face it, they backed into the playoffs in arguably the weakest division in the NFL. But defensively overall they match up pretty good here. And one more item folks, they are also 11-2-1 against the spread as a home ‘dog the last 14 times in that situation. Oh, wait they’re also 5-1 straight up in the postseason under Brady. By the way, not only is Dallas 1-4-1 ATS the last six road games, they are also 0-4 ATS the last four playoff games. Take Tampa Bay. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

No Limit.

Game 150.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST

I am sure you recall these two teams met a week ago. Cincinnati took the game, 27-16. Lamar Jackson is out again here. As you all know, he hasn’t taken the field since December 4. And hasn’t played any significant amount of time since November 27. Let’s face it, the offense’s entire success revolves around Jackson working his magic, allowing the ground game to keep defenses honest. Even when he was healthy, in all sincerity, this team really wasn’t scoring a ton of points guys. In my opinion, Cincy is just about the most well-balanced team right now in the NFL. Offensively, they’re averaging over 26.1-points per game. And you can expect the first-ranked passing offense, led by Joe Burrow to light up the sky here against the 26th-ranked pass defense of Baltimore. Overall, they’re rushing stats aren’t very impressive. However, Joe Mixon is more than adequate folks…he really is. On the flipside, the Bengals defense is allowing just 20.1-points per game and has seemed to have gotten stronger over the last month, yielding just 16.7-points per game over the last four outings. My friends, coming into the postseason, Cincy has rattled off eight consecutive wins and depending on your line last week, eight consecutive covers as well. At the very worst, you got a push last week guys. I don’t normally look at momentum coming into the postseason in the NFL because the playoffs are a whole different monster. But understand that Joe Burrow and company made it to the big game a season ago. He has won in the playoffs and a few years back on a huge platform playing for LSU. This is a team full of talent and are playing with an enthusiasm and excitement that we very rarely see these days. I know it’s a big number, but understand the Bengals have covered the last six games played at home, are 19-6-1 ATS the last 26 versus AFC opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS the last five playoff games. Lay the points here with Cincinnati. Thank you.

New York Giants.

Angle play.

Game 147.

1:40 PM PST/4:40 PM EST.

My friends I’m not looking to downplay the Vikings 13-4 record. Obviously, you’ve got to do something right to amass 13 regular season wins in today’s NFL. However, I’m not going to sit here and tell you I don’t think a little bit of that was luck. This is a team with 11 victories by a margin of eight-points or less. Speaking of 13-4 records, the New York Giants are the most bankable team in pro football, going 13-4 against the spread the season. These two teams met approximately three weeks ago with Minnesota prevailing on the road, 27-24. Let’s face it a lot of things went wrong for New York and they still only lost by three-points. They enter this matchup covering four in a row and six of their last seven (Talk about being bankable). With the fourth-ranked rushing attack in the league, I feel the Giants will move the chains against the 20th ranked run defense in football. They will use the rush to keep the Vikings defense honest and allow Daniel Jones to pass off the run. Say what you want about the quarterback, but he doesn’t make too many mistakes. No, he is not flashy. But he has passed for over 3,205 yards with a 67.2% completion rate and a 15/5 TD/INT ratio. Something to understand folks: Minnesota ranks 28th in points allowed, 20th against the rush, 31st against the pass, and 31st in total yards allowed. Their defense is atrocious. And facing an offense that can run the ball and pass off the run is going to be fatal for this team. On the flipside, New York has played pretty well defensively. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS the last five games played following a straight up win and 2-8-1 ATS the last 11 games played versus NFC opponents. The Giants 4-0 ATS the last four games played on the road, 7-0 ATS the last seven games played following a straight up loss, 5-1 ATS the last six games played versus NFC opponents, and 9-1 ATS the last 10 playoff games played on the road. Take New York. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

WC ANGLE PLAY.

Game 144.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Jacksonville comes into this Wildcard contest winning five in a row and six of the last seven straight up, covering five of those seven games. Yes, I know recently they haven’t faced some of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks. And they are certainly going to face a very talented QB here today. But the defense has stepped up, holding their last three opponents to a total of 22 points scored. I know the Jaguars possess one of the poorer pass defenses in the league. But their offense has played so well, it is keeping opponents defenses on the field and more importantly, their offenses off it. They are certainly more well-balanced offensively. And Jacksonville is 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games played versus AFC opponents. I definitely like the home ‘dog here in the Wildcard round. Take the Jaguars. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

Touchdown Play.

Game 142.

1:35 PM PST/4:35 PM EST.

One month ago, San Francisco took down Seattle on the road to give them a sweep of the Seahawks in this regular season 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. The 49ers enter today’s matchup possessing the top-scoring offensive unit in the league since Week 14. I just don’t see Seattle and they are lackluster “O“, keeping pace here offensively. Especially because they have the tougher task of facing the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL. By the way, the 49ers have also snagged 28 takeaways, while the Seahawks have committed 23 turnovers. This heavily favors the 49ers folks. They are 5-0 ATS the last five games played at home, 19-7 ATS the last 26 games played versus the NFC, 5-1 ATS the last six games played in the postseason, 8-0 ATS the last eight games played versus the NFC West, and 21-8 ATS the last 29 games played overall. Take San Francisco. Thank you.

TCU Horned Frogs.

National Championship Game Winner.

Game 287.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

What many sports bettors fall victim to this time of year is overthinking the National Championship Game. Obviously, with nine days between the College Football Playoff and the Title Game, you’re going to read countless articles, columns, trends, streaks, etc. My friends, don’t overthink this matchup. There is no questioning the Georgia Bulldogs have earned the No. 1 spot in the nation and deserve of all their praise and accolades. However, making this team nearly a two-touchdown favorite is a mistake. The odds makers are hoping that you buy into all the media and the hype the last few weeks. Yes, the Bulldogs are 14-0 this season. Yes, the Horned Frogs lost one game, sporting a 13-1 straight up record. I will not argue I feel Georgia is a little stronger in the trenches in this matchup. However, they are also overvalued quite a bit by the oddsmakers only covering one of their last four outings. Their defense, which overall has been very impressive the season, has gotten plowed for 71 combined points over the last two games. And I feel they have significantly more pressure on them to win here on Monday. Not only that guys, but I think we can all agree that perhaps Buckeyes head coach, Ryan Day made a couple of bad in-game decisions last week. Granted, TCU did lose the Conference Championship in overtime to Kansas State a month ago. But it also showed this team and their coaching staff what they need to work on. I also don’t want you to solely judge the Horned Frogs by their decisive win over the Wolverines last week. Yes, Michigan is certainly one of the most complete teams in College Football this year. And TCU handled them pretty well. But looking at this team overall, this season they have knocked off five ranked teams, including three as an underdog. Many were worried that their biggest ball-carrier, Kendre Miller was sidelined. But I think we can all agree, Emari Demercado can fill in on the rushing game without missing a beat. On this platform, mistakes and turnovers usually play a key part in the outcome of the game. And once again, TCU is significantly better on both sides of the ball as they do not commit nearly as many turnovers as Georgia, and while they do snag more takeaways than the Bulldogs. One more item folks…they are money. They are 4-0 ATS the last four nonconference games played and 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 overall games played. Oh, by the way Georgia has failed to cover each of their last four nonconference games folks. I just feel this is way too many points to give a very talented and scrappy bunch like the Horned Frogs led by a quarterback, who perhaps possesses more heart and grit than any other QB in the nation. Take TCU. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Late Bailout Play.

Game 460.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

The Packers control their own destiny. They win and they’re in. Their division rival, the Lions need a bit of help as well as a victory here today. As a matter fact the Lions might be eliminated even before this game starts. They need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams this morning. If Seattle wins, Detroit has no chance of making the postseason. Not only does Green Bay have momentum, winning and covering four straight games coming into this contest. But they are led by one of the most seasoned veterans in the game today in Aaron Rodgers. He gets to go up against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL. By the way speaking of defenses, the Green Bay stop-unit has held their last four opponents to an average of just 17-points per game. To make matters worse, the home team has covered the last six meetings between these two rivals. Take the Packers. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

NFL Angle Play.

Game 469.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST

A lot of people are playing the Denver Broncos here because they think they’re looking to play spoiler I guess the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver is out of the postseason. They have absolutely no shot as they are just 4-12 this year. However, at 10-6, Los Angeles is looking to secure the number five AFC spot with a victory here. This is a team that is certainly riding momentum, winning and covering for in a row. Granted, they are not too much of a threat on the ground. But they enter this match up with the fifth ranked passing attack in the NFL. I know the Broncos overall are good defensively. However, this is a stop-unit that has started to spring a leak over the last few months. Let’s face it, they allowed Las Vegas to put up 22, Carolina to put up 23, Kansas City to put up 34, Los Angeles to put up 51, and Kansas City once again to put up 27. Their defense has sprung a leak. It is tired and overworked. It is very vulnerable in the air. On the flipside, we all know the Broncos possess the worst scoring offense in the NFL, averaging is 16-points per game. Making Los Angeles an underdog is a mistake as the ‘dog is 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Oh, by the way, LA is also 6-2 ATS the last eight games played on the road, 9-4 ATS the last 13 games played on grass, at 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 games played in the month of January. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

HIGH ROLLER PLAY.

Game 473.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

A victory here and a little bit of help, and Dallas will be home for the first round of the playoffs. There is even a slight chance that they would wind up with the NFC East’s top-seed. What a better opponent to face then a division rival in which they’ve had their way with. The Cowboys have won and covered three consecutive meetings with the Commanders, including this year‘s only matchup, an early-October, 25-10 annihilation on the road. Washington enters this matchup having not won a single game since the end of November. They have failed to cover four straight as well. Let’s face it, offensively they just can’t compete with the explosive Dallas “O“. I mean the Commanders average just 18.4-points per game. A lot has been said over the course of the regular season about how good their “D“ is. However, this is a unit that has allowed their last four opponents to put up over 101-points on them. And a couple of those opponents are not known to have explosive offensive units. The Cowboys have covered six of the last eight meetings in this series on the road and sixth of the last eight overall meetings. By the way, they are also 23-9 ATS the last 32 versus the NFC East. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.

Pittsburgh Steelers.

No Limit.

Game 462.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

A lot has to happen, but Pittsburgh still has a slim chance of making the playoffs. Having said that, we all know Cleveland is out. The Steelers play at home in front of their loyal fans and can give them something to be excited about here with a big win. This is a team that has rattled off five wins over the last six outings, both straight up and against the spread. Not only that, but we all know Mike Tomlin and company enjoy payback. If you recall, the first meeting back at the end of September in Cleveland, the Browns embarrassed the Steelers 29-17. Even if Cleveland does look to play spoiler here, I don’t expect them to put their only true weapons, the rushing attack in jeopardy for far too long. Please remember, the Steelers do possess the seventh ranked run defense in the NFL. On the flipside, I just look for Kenny Pickett to continue to work his magic. The home team has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS the last five games played versus teams with a losing record and 17-7 -3 ATS the last 27 games played in the month of January. Take the Steelers. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

AFC South Game of the Month.

Game 458.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Jacksonville took the December 11 meeting with Tennessee on the road, 36-22. That win and cover started their current four-game win and cover hot streak. On the other hand, the Titans are going in a very different direction. Since the end of November, they have lost and failed to cover six consecutive outings. Their offense has been non-effective and non-existent, accounting for a mere, 14.8-points per game during their slide. Being that they can’t move the chains offensively, their defense is overworked, tired, and getting plowed. This does not bode well as they are facing a Jags “O“ that comes off scoring performances of 36, 40, 19, and 31-points. I just don’t see the Titans 32nd ranked pass defense slowing down, let alone stopping Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars 10th ranked passing attack. Derrick Henry is expected to play. But for how long we can only speculate. As of this post, even if he plays the entire game, he still must lineup against one of the toughest and stingiest run defenses in the NFL. To make matters worse, Tennessee has coughed-up the ball 21 times, while Jacksonville has snagged 24 takeaways. The Jaguars are 5-0-1 ATS the last six versus AFC opponents, 6-2 ATS the last eight on Saturday, and 5-1 ATS the last six in January. Take Jacksonville. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

NFC North GOM.

Game 128.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

I’m not looking to take anything way from the Minnesota Vikings. But folks you’ve got admit, luck has played a part in their 12-3 record. Having said that I’m also going to give you a cliché. They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Well, the Green Bay Packers opened this season with an embarrassing 23-7 loss on the road at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. They then won three consecutive victories before hitting a big slide. Since December began, things turned a corner for this team, winning and covering three straight games with authority. Green Bay is back in the playoff race. They can sneak into the postseason if they win their last two games as long as Washington loses at least once or the New York Giants lose both of their remaining contests. Either way the Packers must win here this week. This is a team that is striding at the right time. Plus, they have Aaron Rodgers at the helm who is out to prove there’s still some life left in his aging body. We talked about the Vikings being lucky. They’ve been very lucky. While they have won two of their last three games straight up, they failed to cover all three outings. Their main offensive strength is in the air. But they must go up against the NFL third ranked pass defense here. Dalvin Cook is solid. But in all sincerity, this “O” ranks 28th in rushing. On the flipside, they rank dead last in the NFL defending the pass and have to go up against a surging and angry Rodgers. Understand that the Packers have started to get healthy coincidentally the same time they started to win. The home team has covered nine of the last 13 meetings of the series. Green Bay has covered nine of the last 13 against Minnesota at home. Ohm, by the way the Vikings are just 0-3-1 ATS the last four versus NFC opponents. Take the Packers. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

No Limit Play.

Game 110.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Philadelphia Eagles can secure the top seed in the NFC playoffs by beating the New Orleans Saints here on Sunday. I must make you aware of the fact the New Orleans Saints can’t qualify for the playoffs if they don’t beat the Philadelphia Eagles here either. So, both teams have a lot riding on this game. I have to tell you no matter who is under center for Philly, I look for them to come out here and make a big statement following last week’s 40-34 loss in Dallas. Let’s face it, the Cowboys. But due to four turnovers, they lost the game. That won’t sit well with the Conference’s best team.  While the Saints are very good at defending the pass, they are absolutely atrocious defending the run. The Eagles come in here ranked fourth in the league in rushing, accounting for over 153.8 yards per game on the ground. They also own the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging over 29.7-points per game. Defensively, they are outstanding. I just don’t see New Orleans moving the chains, let alone getting in the end zone here. I do see the Eagles, which rank second in the NFL with 26 takeaways, forcing the Saints into making a lot of mistakes and turning the ball over. After all, they’ve already committed 23 turnovers, ranking 29th in the league. Philadelphia has won and covered the last two meetings over New Orleans. They also enter this game covering six of their last seven at home. Take the Eagles. Thank you.

Georgia Bulldogs.

Late Info Move.

Game 274.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

My friends the line has moved exactly where we wanted it here in this game. Very simply, both teams deserve to be here. However, looking at the close of the Buckeyes season, three of their final five games, their defense got plowed for 30 or more points. There is no way the Nittany Lions should’ve put up 31 on them. And there is no way the Terrapins should’ve scored 30 on them either. Their last game, a 45-23 loss against the Wolverines is understandable. Their defense has definitely sprung a leak. And I doubt psychologically this team can bounce back from that devastating loss to Michigan. Understand they’ve only covered one of their last five outings. They have become point spread poison. The Georgia defense took out starters in their last outing on December 3, a 50-30 win and cover in the Conference Title game against the LSU Tigers. Other than that, this stop-unit never allowed a single opponent to put up better than 22-points this season. And guys, they’ve faced some explosive offenses. The fact that they are so well-balanced offensively will keep the OSU defense honest and on the field. Not only does Georgia want to win the National Title game, they also want to stay undefeated. Today they achieve both of those goals. Ohio State is 2-6 ATS the last eight nonconference games, 1-5 ATS the last six neutral site games, and 0-3-1 ATS the last four versus teams with a winning record. Georgia is 8-2 ATS the last 10 Bowl games, 4-1 ATS the last five neutral site games, and 8-2 ATS the last 10 December games. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.

Michigan Wolverines.

Cash Money Play.

Saturday, December 31, 2022.

Game 276.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

My friends, for once there is no questioning the Final Four teams that made this year’s College Football Playoffs. Normally, we’re engulfed in controversy about teams that made it and certain teams that should’ve made it. That’s not the case this season. And I expect the Peach Bowl between Ohio State and Georgia is a highly anticipated matchup as well as this game that I’m going to talk about, the Fiesta Bowl between Texas Christian and Michigan. Both teams certainly deserve to be here. The Horned Frogs possess a 12-1 mark, with their only defeat coming in the Big 12 Championship game at the hands of the Wildcats. The Wolverines, at 13-0 have already set a school record for most victories in a season. They’re also looking to finish undefeated for the first time since 1997, when they won a share of the National Championship, back then when it was decided by the polls. Guys, I’m not going to get in to some big debate over my next item, but I don’t think anyone would really question the fact that the Big Ten is a bit stronger than the Big 12. The Big 12 is chock-full of offenses that can light up the scoreboard. However, the Big Ten is made up of good, well-balanced offenses, along with defenses that could shut down opponents’ offenses. Looking at TCU‘s schedule this season, they had quite a bit of problems with opponents like Oklahoma State, Texas, and even Baylor. And as we all saw in the December 3, Big 12 Title game, Kansas State really took it to them as quarterback, Max Duggan and the offense looked very vulnerable. As far as Michigan goes, they didn’t have too many close games this season. As a matter of fact, the only opponent that gave them a tough time the entire campaign was Illinois. But as we came to find out, the Fighting Illini’s defense was the real-deal. Speaking of that loss to the Wildcats, the very smart head coach, Jim Harbaugh and his staff watched the game tapes of that contest and will take a page out of it as to how to slow down the quarterback and the rushing attack. Granted, the Horned Frogs offense is equally good on the ground and in the air, resulting in scoring 40.3 points per game. However, they haven’t faced a defense like they’re going to face here this week. The Wolverine stop-unit ranks fifth nationally, allowing just 13.4-points per game and was equally tough against the rush as well as a pass. They will shut down the ground game of TCU as did Kansas State. Thus, putting more pressure on Duggan, throwing a lot of different schemes at him and a lot of blitzes. Trust me when I tell you they will force him to make mistakes here in this game. Defensively, the Horned Frogs leave a lot to be desired. Overall, they give up 25.0-points per game. They rank 83rd against the pass and 64th against the rush. Well, I’ve got to tell you, the Michigan offense is so deep and so talented, they will keep their opponents “D” off-balanced this entire game and backpedaling. Come the second half, the TCU defense will be gasping for air.  I know Blake Corum is out. But backup running back, Donovan Edwards is outstanding. He tallied 872 yards rushing, averaging 7.5-yards per rush and seven touchdowns. Just against the mighty, Ohio State defense a month ago, the ball-carrier rushed for 216 yards and two touchdowns. He then put up 185 yards on the ground and another touchdown in the Big 12 Championship against Purdue. The Wolverines will exploit the Horned Frogs weaknesses on defense. Furthermore, they will keep that defense on the field and the TCU offense off it, resulting in their “O” not getting into any rhythm at all. And as I mentioned earlier the Horned Frogs have yet to face a defense as complete, as talented, and as ferocious as they will face here against the Wolverines. TCU is 3-7 ATS the last 10 Bowl games and 4-11 ATS the last 15 neutral site games. Michigan is 5-2 ATS the last seven nonconference games and 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 overall games. Take the Wolverines. Thank you.

Alabama Crimson Tide.

Bowl Game of the Season.

Game 272.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Guys, I’m not going to break this game down like I normally do in detail. I am going to break it down for you in common sense. ‘Bama quarterback, Bryce Young and linebacker, Will Anderson will be playing this game. Many expected both to opt out at this point. But being that they have not, tells me a few things about the Sugar Bowl. Especially because of the 13 Crimson Tide players who entered the transfer portal, only one was a starter. Granted, I know Nick Saban‘s Alabama squad has not been a covering machine when it comes to Bowl games. However, this years squad is a lot different than past squads. First of all, they did not make the College Football Playoff. And anything short of that, Saban feels is a losing season. While they have a 10-win campaign this year, this is a team that following their second loss of the season back in November to LSU, a one-point overtime defeat, has since rattled off three consecutive straight up victories. As a matter fact, both of the Crimson Tides defeats the season came on the final plays of the game against the Volunteers and the Tigers. And both of those opponents were highly-ranked at the time. Saban will go out of his way to have his boys prepared, revved up, motivated, and ready to prove to the pollsters that this year was a fluke. No matter who is under center for the Wildcats, I think we can all agree that Kansas State is not a passing team. Their offense relies upon the rush. They have an excellent RB in Deuce Vaughn. But the ‘Bama defense ranks 30th nationally against the rush. And guys, they have faced some pretty darn good rushing attacks this season. If they can slow down Vaughan, and I believe they will, this leaves whichever quarterback is at the helm, Howard or Martinez, a sitting duck. Alabama‘s pass rush is one of the best in the nation and they rank 16th overall in passing yards allowed. While K State plays in the Big 12 and faces a lot of very high-powered offenses, I just don’t see them slowing down, let alone stopping the well-balanced ‘Bama offensive juggernaut. This is a team that averages over 40.8-points per game, while playing some of the toughest defenses in the nation. That is unfamiliar territory for the Wildcats, guys. Once again, I feel that Nick Saban is going out to prove a point in this matchup, especially because this game goes off before the two CFP contests. He can really make a statement here. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS the last six Bowl games, 10-4 ATS the last 14 nonconference games, and 4-1 ATS the last five games in December. Take Alabama. Thank you.

Clemson Tigers.

Friday Night Lights Winner.

Game 267.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Sports fans, there is no questioning the fact that the Tennessee Volunteers offense finished the season ranking first in total yards and points scored. Their success offensively came off the arm and the leadership of Hendon Hooker, who is out with an injury. Now the reins are in the hands of Michigan-transfer, Joe Milton III. I’ve got to tell you folks, I’ve never been a big fan of Milton. And now he must start a Bowl game and play without the services of two of the Volunteers top-four receivers in Hyatt and Tillman. By the way Milton is it known to run the ball as well as Hooker either. He is definitely a one-dimensional quarterback. They must face the nation’s 18th ranked defense, allowing just 20.1 points per game, consisting of college football’s 10th ranked run defense. I feel the fact Clemson stuffs the run so well, it is going to hurt the Tennessee offense significantly. Offensively, the Tigers will start phenom quarterback, Cade Klubnik. This will be his “coming out” party on a national platform. Clemson will get a chance to show the world of college football that next year they are gunning for a CFP spot. This is a team that finished the season very strong dominating opponents. Their one recent loss was a one-point heartbreaker at the hands of South Carolina, a team in which devoured Tennessee two games ago, 63-38. I see Klubnik dissecting the Volunteers 127th ranked pass defense. He also has the luxury of RB, Will Shipley in the backfield to keep the UT “D” honest. The Tigers are 16-5 ATS the last 21 in December, 4-1 ATS the last four Bowls, and 20-6 ATS the last 26 on neutral sites. Take Clemson. Thank you

Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Friday Bowl Best Bet.

Game 264.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Guy, the line moved in this game yesterday morning because of the wiseguy‘s here in Vegas. And I’m not going to lie to you. I was one of those sharp players who bet Notre Dame, moving the line up to -3. South Carolina’s claim to fame is the fact that their last two games of the season were outright wins against Tennessee and Clemson. If that wasn’t the case, you would see this line closer to a six or even a seven. Having said that my friends, the Gamecocks are depleted. While head coach Shane Beamer will have his starting quarterback Spencer Rattler at the helm here, most of his other stars have run for the hills in one way or another. Opt outs, transfer portal, and injuries have really depleted this team of their biggest playmakers for the most part. On the flipside, Notre Dame finished the season winning five of the last six games straight up. Yes, they took an 11-point loss on the road at USC to finish off the campaign. But this team will be in “bounce back” mode here. Understand that not only do the Fighting Irish have a long tradition of winning, but they are very deep…very deep. Let’s talk about that real quick. Quarterback, Drew Pyne is heading to Arizona State. And tight end, Michael Mayer has opted out to prep for the NFL. But if you recall Tyler Buchner entered preseason camp as the starter and a shoulder injury forced him to miss the last 10 games for the Irish. He’s been getting first team reps in practice and is expected to be back at the helm here. So, no big disappointment under center for Notre Dame, guys. A few other items that you really need to take note of: Understand this was not an offense that had explosive passing attack to begin with. They ran the ball and passed off the run. And just FYI folks their biggest ball carriers are playing here and get to face the 113th ranked run defense of South Carolina. Next, the Fighting Irish will absolutely dominate the Gamecocks in the trenches. On both sides of the line of scrimmage, their linemen are much bigger, much stronger, and much better. Then, Spencer Rattler is a very good quarterback. However, he goes up against the nation’s 20th ranked pass defense. And he’s going to do it without his two best ball-carriers in the backfield. Both Lloyd and Bell have entered the transfer portal. Lastly, in consecutive games, South Carolina got plowed for 24, 23, 27, 38, 38, and 30-points. They’re going to give up a lot of points here, folks. As I said earlier the line is way off here. And that’s why we’re going to stay with Notre Dame. Take the Fighting Irish. Thank you.

Washington Huskies.

Alamo Bowl Winner.

Game 257.

6:00 PM PST/9:00 PM EST.

There is no question that both Texas and Washington possess two of the best offenses in college football today. The Longhorns average over 35.7-points per game on 430.3 yards per game, while the Huskies account for 40.8-points per game and over 521.7 yards per game. Texas enters this matchup on a 3-2 straight up run and have split out their last six games against the spread. Washington is a little hotter, riding a six-game straight up win streak, covering the last three in a row. However, the Longhorns might have a little bit of trouble keeping pace offensively as they lost their two best offensive weapons in running backs, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. The tandem accounted for over 2,134 yards rushing and 23 touchdowns on the ground, with another 344 yards receiving and three TD’s in the air. No other ball-carriers have any real experience other than the pair. This will surely put extra pressure on the young and inexperienced quarterback, Quinn Ewers. If Texas cannot move the ball on the ground (which I doubt they will), their defense will get very tired here. Something they are not accustomed to being. The Huskies, behind the nation’s top-ranked passing attack will dissect the 88th ranked pass defense of the Longhorns in this matchup. Quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. (who will be coming back next year), has tallied over 4,354 yards passing and a 29-7 TD/INT ratio. He does have a couple of good ball-carriers at his disposal to keep the Texas defense honest. I just don’t see the Longhorns keeping pace offensively on the scoreboard with the Huskies. Washington is 4-0 ATS the last four nonconference games. Take the Huskies. Thank you.

Florida State Seminoles.

Cheez-It Bowl Winner.

Game 256.

2:30 PM PST/5:30 PM EST.

If there was another team more disappointing this season than Oklahoma, I don’t know which team that would be. The Sooners finished the campaign 6-6 and every time they stepped up in class, they seemed to have taken a big beating. Now, they have been hit with a large amount of opt outs. They face a Florida State opponent that enters this Bowl matchup winning five in a row straight up going 4-1 against the spread. As a matter of fact, since they lost a few games in a row back in October, this team has played perfect football. Unlike their adversary here, they have not been hit by too many opt outs. Moreover, this is the first Bowl game in a while and an opportunity for them to reach the 10-win mark, which would be huge for this program. Reports are Sooners head coach Brent Venables spent the last few weeks not preparing for this meaningless Bowl matchup, but instead recruiting for next year’s class. The Seminoles will enjoy basically a home crowd being that this game is being played in Orlando, Florida. While this is a lot of points, please understand that on both sides of the ball, FSU is far superior. The average over 36.2-points per game and they face one of the worst defenses in the nation. On the stop end of the ball, the Seminoles rank 16th, only allowing 19.7-points per game. Oklahoma, even at full strength would have a problem here because of their horrible Swiss-cheese like defense. However, I think things are going to go from bad to worse for this team because their only true offensive weapon, running back Eric Gray has opted out. They are 1-6 ATS the last seven versus teams with a winning record and 2-7 ATS the last nine overall. Florida State is 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 Bowl games and 8–2 Ats the last 10 following a straight up win. Take the Seminoles. Thank you.

East Carolina Pirates.

Birmingham Bowl winner.

Game 241.

3:45 PM PST/6:45 PM EST.

Three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year, Grayson McCall, despite entering the transfer portal, will play quarterback in this game for Coastal Carolina. The rumor mill has been buzzing that he has quite a few offers from SEC squads. He has put up some outstanding numbers in his tenure with the chanticleers. However, he’s coming off of foot injury and does not have his offensive line intact in this Bowl game. After missing the embarrassing, 47-7 loss at James Madison at the end of November, he did return at the beginning of December and was clearly hobbled with that foot injury in the team’s, 45-26 loss at Troy. Granted, he has had several weeks to heal. But without his offensive line at full force here, he’s going to be on the run for most of this contest. While the Pirates possess one of the worst pass defenses is in the nation, they are one of the best against the rush. Trust me when I tell you, they can still get to the quarterback here. At the very least, they will shut down the rushing game of Coastal Carolina, forcing McCall out of the pocket and committing turnovers. ECU has a much more well-balanced offense. They average just shy of 31-points per game, ranking 16th in the nation in passing and 55th in rushing. Due to the fact that they have a well-balanced offense, they will keep the CCU defense busy and on the field for most of this contest. Please take note the Chanticleers pass defense is just as bad, ranking 124th nationally. One more item that is vital here is the fact the Pirates do not turn the ball over. And let’s face it, the Chanticleers are not known for creating turnovers. This is going to play a big part in today’s matchup. By the way, East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers is going to wrap up his five-year career here. This season he has thrown for 3,408 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just five interceptions. All three of the Chanticleers losses this season were outright beat downs. I think you’re looking at another beat down, folks. CCU is 0-4 ATS the last four games in December, 2-8 ATS the last 10 games versus teams with a winning record, and 2-6 ATS the last eight games overall. Take ECU. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

MNF winner.

Game 481.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

It would be bad enough for the Colts losing four in a row and seven of the last eight straight up. But the last loss on December 17 at the Vikings, 39-36 in overtime, blowing a 33-point lead is devastating. To add to their pressure, the Colts have not taken the field in nine days. Trust me when I tell you this is not an experienced, intelligent team lead by true leaders. So instead of bouncing back here, I look for things to get even worse for the Jeff Saturday experiment. To add to their laundry list of problems, their only true offensive threat, Jonathan Taylor is out. With the Jets, the Patriots, and the Raiders all losing this past weekend, the Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with the win here tonight. Los Angeles enters this matchup winning three of the last four straight up and possessing the league’s third-ranked passing offense. Justin Herbert, who has passed for over 4000 yards this season (4,019), on a 67.5% completion rate, with 21 touchdowns, is salivating knowing he gets to go up against a defense that has allowed 39, 54, and 24-points over the last three weeks. Running back, Austin Ekeler will keep the Indy defense honest and allow Herbert to open up the passing game. One more item folks, the Chargers rank amongst the best in the league at not turning the ball over, while the Colts rank as one of the worst in the league at creating turnovers. On the flipside, Indy has turned the ball over 27 times which already ranks dead-last in the NFL. As I mentioned earlier in this breakdown, things will go from bad to worse from the Colts. Los Angeles has been money on the road covering five of the last seven as a visitor. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

New Mexico State.

Game 235.

11:30 AM PST/2:30 PM EST.

Sports fans, you ever noticed you never see a sportsbook, a casino, a racetrack, or even a local bookmaker go out of business? Do you know why? Because the general public loses. And that’s what’s going to happen in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday between New Mexico State and Bowling Green. The Aggies actually opened up a slight one-point favorite here. And as of this show, this line has now moved to make the Falcons a 3.5-point favorite. The general public is all over the MAC team. Now guys, I know New Mexico State plays in the Independents Conference. And they are outshined by other representatives like Notre Dame, Liberty, BYU and even Army. But I’m here to tell you this team is a pretty decent team. They started the campaign off losing their first four games. And then something happened. The team solidified behind quarterback, Diego Pavia. Oh, by the way, the play-caller was a little banged up but. But it was announced that he’s at least 90% recovered from a hamstring issue. So, no worries there. When he got the starting job, the offense got in sync He produced an 11-1 touchdown-interception ratio. Now this team has won five of their last six both straight up against the spread. But when Pavia took all over the reins, things certainly changed significantly for the better. They have rattled off four wins in the last five games, both straight up and against the number. They have really stepped up a notch. So, when I tell you that their numbers over on the season are skewed…believe me they are skewed. Look for the outstanding gunslinger to decimate the Bowling Green 104th ranked pass defense. Now when the Falcons have the ball, it’s no secret they are a passing team. To be honest, they can’t rush the ball at all, barely breaking 100 yards per game on the ground averaging 101 yards per contest. They strictly throw the ball. They rely… let me rephrase that, they live and die by the pass. Now they have a pretty darn good quarterback themselves in Matt McDonald. But he must face an Aggies pass defense that ranks 14th nationally. This team frustrated much better offenses in the air this season. By the way, coming back around to Pavia folks, he’s a monster threat on the ground as well. He really compliments Starr Thomas and Jimony Jones, their solid backfield tandem as he has added another 452 yards and six TD’s with his legs. So once again, when he took over the reins the entire offensive unit got in sync and everybody started producing at a much higher level. And once again, their statistics are skewed because it that was so bad the first portion of the season that it doesn’t show overall. One more item folks, Bowling Green has only been favored away from home once in the last five years and they failed to cover that game, which occurred back at the beginning of October this season. When it comes to covering, New Mexico State has been money. So, let’s go with the money and take the 3.5-points with the Aggie’s. Thank you.

San Diego State.

Game 234.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

My friends, putting these two teams together in the Hawaii bowl seems to me to be inhumane. Blue Raiders are not a bad mean. I mean they finished the season winning the last three outings straight up. But let’s face it, being Charlotte, FAU, and FIU will definitely give this them a false sense of security. Yes, they ranked 31st in the nation in passing. However, the Aztecs defense is one of the best in college football. They allow just 20.2-points per game, equally good against the pass as well as the rush. Middle Tennessee State has not faced a defense of this caliber at all this season. I mean this is a team that had trouble scoring on James Madison, UAB, and Western Kentucky. Being that the San Diego State stop-unit is so strong, they will get the Middle Tennessee State offense off the field very quickly with a lot of three-and-outs and even force some turnovers. This will then tire out the Blue Raiders defense and allow the Aztecs offense to go to work. Granted, the San Diego State “O“ is slow-moving. But they have three phenomenal wideouts that will absolutely exploit the MTU 129th ranked pass defense. They have a solid backfield that will keep this defense honest and allow their quarterback to open up the passing game. The Blue Raiders are 2-5 ATS the last seven Bowl games, 2-7 ATS the last nine games in December, and 2-5-1 ATS the last eight games overall. Take the Aztecs. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

NFC East Game of the Month.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

This line is so off it is absolutely absurd. I know the absence of Jalen Hurts is significant. Obviously, as he is a favorite to take the league MVP this season as of this point. But can you really trust the Dallas Cowboys in a big-game situation like this? I mean come on folks a week ago they took an overtime loss in Jacksonville. They tend to get over valued by the odds makers, covering just two of their last six outings. And now they face a division rival who took them down 26-17 back in mid-October. And they are this high of favorite because Hurts is out. I’m here to tell you Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Obviously, the dynamics change with him at the helm. Are people forgetting that this is the second ranked scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just under 30-points per game? Are people forgetting they rarely turn the ball over? Are people forgetting they own a top-five rushing attack? And it will be that rushing attack that will allow Minshew some time and open up the passing game. Their ground game ranks fourth in the league, averaging over 158.6 yards per game. My friends they face one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL here. Dak Prescott is erratic at best. Let’s face it the passing attack of Dallas is no attack, ranking 17th in the league. And they must lineup against the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL. Not only that but the Eagles only allow 19.1-points per game. And they’ve already forced and taken 25 turnovers. You can bet your butt that they will pressure Prescott and force him to make mistakes. Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS the last five games versus teams with a winning record. Take the Eagles. Thank you.

Cleveland Browns.

Angle Play.

Game 456.

10:00 AM PST 1:00 PM EST.

Since Deshaun Watson took over the reins, the Browns are 2-1. Overall, Cleveland has won and cover three of the last four outings coming into this matchup. And now they see the return of Nick Chubb to spearhead the NFL’s fifth ranked rushing attack. Trust me when I tell you they are going to steamroll the very lax 23rd ranked New Orleans run defense. The Saints are going to be missing several key players. But even if they were at full strength, I still don’t see them even competing in this matchup. They are 0-5 ATS the last five games played following a straight up win and 1-5 ATS the last six games played on grass. Take Cleveland. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

No Limit.

Game 459.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Sports fans, very few teams can come back from the devastating loss like the Patriots suffered last week in Las Vegas. Trust me when I tell you this is not the Bill Belichick New England squad that we are so used to seeing over the last two decades. Just over the last four weeks they are on a 1-3 run, both straight up and against the spread. And things aren’t looking too good for them as they face a team a arguably with the most momentum going into this weeks games. Cincinnati Bengals are running red-hot, winning and covering six consecutive outings. Joe Burrow and the Bengals top-10 offense are salivating just knowing they get to line up across from the leaky Patriots defense. Sure, overall, on the season the New England “D” has impressive stats. However, over the last four weeks they have allowed a combined 99-points. By the way the Patriots have lost the last five as home underdogs without Tom Brady, going 1-4 against the spread. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS the last five games played in December, 35-17 ATS the last 52 games played on the road, and 20-7 ATS the last 27 versus the AFC. Take the Bengals. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Oddsmakers Mistake.

Game 465.

10:00 AM PST,1:00 PM EST.

Both teams need to win here this week. Kansas City is looking to claim the AFC‘s number one seed. And Seattle is just looking to add to their chances of making the postseason. Folks I’m here to tell you that there is no way that the Chief should be a double-digit favorite against any opponent in the NFL. Especially one that matches up this well with them. Kansas City is absolute point spread poison folks. To be honest with you they have covered just one game since mid-October. I think we can all agree the odds makers tend to overvalue them because they know the general public likes to bet them. However, they’re making a huge mistake here. Seattle is on an 0-5 ATS slide themselves. But they have not been given this many points. The Chiefs defense has allowed 27, 28, 24-points over the last three outings. And to be honest with you, a couple of those foes possess lower-tier offenses. Seattle will be able to pass the ball with ease against the 22nd ranked pass defense of Kansas City. Granted the Chiefs will do what they do and put points up. But the lack of a major rushing game will not allow them to eat up a lot of clock in the process. There are also 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games played at home, 1-10-1 the last 12 games played following a straight up win, and 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games overall. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

MNF WINNER.

Game 332.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Let’s go to Lambeau Field as the Rams take on the Packers. There is no question that both Los Angeles and Green Bay have fallen way short of expectations this season. I mean the Rams are just 4-9 following up their Super Bowl season. In all fairness a lot of their woes are due to injuries. But in all sincerity, a lot is also due to inconsistent play. They finally got a win last week, their first since October 16, as they faced the lowly Raiders. Baker Mayfield, who just joined the team two days earlier, rallied his team back from a 16-3 deficit late in the fourth quarter to steal a 17-16 win. The Packers will be a much, much different opponent here this week. First of all, Green Bay has dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight straight up, and all eight against the spread. Next, to say that Los Angeles is running on fumes would be an understatement. Their injured list is longer than Deshaun Watson plaintive list LOL. They already rank 25th in passing, 30th in rushing, and 29th in points scored. Oh, by the way, they also rank 28th in turnovers committing 20 miscues on the campaign. Green Bay got a big December 4 win over division rival Chicago, 28-19. What will certainly benefit this team is coming off that win and then having a bye week to rest, heal, and prepare for this week’s matchup. In rookie wide receiver, Christian Watson, Aaron Rodgers finally has a go to receiver to complement wideout Allen Lazard. On the ground, the Packers are pretty stable as Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have combined for nearly 1,500 yards rushing and five TDs. The offense is now well-balanced and will certainly exploit the depleted, Los Angeles defense. It’s true, the Packers have lost three straight as a home favorite this season. But, in all sincerity, two of those games were earlier on, and before Rodgers started connecting with Watson. Throw into the mix that the biggest defensive threat Los Angeles has, Aaron Donald is unlikely to play here and I will tell you that I do feel Green Bay is going to light up the scoreboard. Oh, by the way, they also had a while to prepare for Mayfield at the helm. The Rams are 1-4 ATS their last five games played following a straight up win and 1-3-1 ATS their last five games played versus NFC opponents. I see the Packers making a push late in the season, and it starts here. Lay the TD with Green Bay, folks. Thank you. 

Dallas Cowboys.

Angle Play.

Game 321.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

If there is one team in the NFL that you could actually say is “Jekyll and Hyde“, it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, one trend you cannot ignore is the fact that since they started winning, they alternate weeks winning and losing. November 6 was a win and cover against Las Vegas, November 13 was a loss and no cover against Kansas City, November 27 was a win and cover at home against Baltimore, December 4 was a loss and no cover on the road at Detroit, and December 11 was a win and cover away from home at Tennessee. They are alternating wins and losses. Well, I think you’re going see the trend continue for them again here this week. The Jaguars are running into the NFL’s second ranked defense of the Dallas Cowboys, which is allowing just 17.6-points per game. The Cowboys are winning. Let’s face it they’ve won for in a row and six of their last seven straight up en route to an overall record of 10-3. During their current four-game hot streak, they are accounting for over 37.2-points per game. Not only that, but I do see them moving the chains with their well-balanced unit against the Jacksonville defense that last played a well-balanced unit and gave a 40-points to Detroit. The tandem of Pollard and Elliott have teamed up for over 1,600 yards rushing and 18 TDs this season. They will control the pace of this game, move the chains, and open up the passing game for Dak Prescott. One more item that is very important folks, the Cowboys are one of the most bankable teams in the NFL. They are 8-1 ATS their last nine games played in the month of December, 13-3 ATS their last 16 games played versus teams with a losing record, and 11-3 ATS their last 14 games played on the road. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

AFC EAST GOM.

Game 310.

5:30 PM PST/8:30 PM EST.

Following four consecutive straight up victories, Buffalo needs a win this week to earn an AFC playoff spot and bring them one step closer to an AFC East title. The Bills dominated the Dolphins, taking seven consecutive meetings in this division rivalry prior to the very strange September 25 “Butt punt“ game resulting in a 21-19 loss on the road. Revenge plays a big factor in this contest this week. But so does Buffalo trying to further widen their lead in the AFC East. They face a Miami team that has lost back-to-back games the last several weeks. The Dolphins offense has sputtered, tallying a combined 34-points in losses and no covers to the 49ers and the Chargers both on the road. This is their third straight outing away from home. Miami is not known to play well in cold-weather places and their record In Orchard Park, New York is not very good, as they are just 2-7-1 ATS the last 10 meetings there. The Dolphins have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. As a matter fact, they rank 29th in the league, averaging just 89.8 yards per game on the ground. Being that they are no threat on the ground, the Buffalo defense, which ranks second overall in the league, allowing at 17.0-points per game, can key on their passing attack. They have had success in the air. However, the last few weeks, their aerial assault has crash-landed, producing almost as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Bills have a very well-balanced offensive attack, averaging sixth in the air and eighth on the ground. Overall, they are fourth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.2-points per game. Their ground assault will keep the Dolphins defense honest while Josh Allen opens up the sixth ranked passing game against the 23rd ranked pass defense in the league, and work his magic. Temperatures are expected to be in the 20’s and wind gusts of over 35 miles per hour for this game. And possible chance of snow. All things that work in Buffalo’s favor. One more item folks. The Bills in their only other attempt this season facing a team that has beaten them previously, crushed the Jets last week 20-12. They are very good when seeking revenge. Miami is 0-4 ATS their last four games played following a straight up loss, 1-5 ATS their last six games played on the road, and 3-7 ATS their last 10 games played overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS their last six games played in Week 15, 9-3-2 ATS their last 14 games played following an ATS loss, and 7-3 ATS their last 10 games played in the month of December. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Fresno State Bulldogs.

Cure Bowl.

Game 211.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

The depleted Cougars defense was running thin at the linebacker position as several key players entered the transfer portal several weeks ago. To thin the corps even more, their best player OLB, Henley has opted out to prep for the NFL Draft. Washington State is also going to be missing several coaches. Offensively they will be without their two of their top three wideouts. But in all honesty, even if this team was at full strength, I think they would still have a hard time with a Fresno State squad that has run off eight consecutive wins and six covers out of those eight contests. Look for quarterback, Jay Haener to absolutely decimate the depleted Washington State defense. He heads up the 27th ranked passing attack in the nation. And he’s going to face a pass defense that ranks 113th. And that was before they lost all their linebackers. He’s got a great offensive line that will give him all the time in the world to pick the Cougars ”D” apart. I’ve got to be honest my friends, on the flipside, Wazzu quarterback Cam Ward is a stud. However, being without two of his favorite weapons and without a true rushing game to keep the Broncos defense honest, I think he’s going to be a sitting duck, guys. Understand Fresno State’s pass defense is one of the best in the nation, ranking 23rd. And as I said, the Washington State rushing game is absolutely deplorable, ranking 113th. I know there’s a lot of emotion on the Wazzu side with recent off the field heartbreaks. However, I just don’t see emotion beating experienced talent in this matchup. One more major item is that this game is being played in Inglewood, California, where there will be more of a Bulldogs crowd. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS their last 10 nonconference games, 1-4 ATS their last five Bowl games, and 0-4 ATS their last four games played in the month of December. I doubt you’re going to need it, but buy this line down to -3 just to err on the side of caution. Take Fresno State all the way here guys. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

Angle Play.

Game 124.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The number is short here due to the QB situation. Brock Purdy has the luxury of stepping in to a monster offensive unit. San Fran is loaded with playmakers on the “O”. They also possess one of the NFL’S best stop-units, ranking in the Top-10 in just about every major category. They are 13-3 ATS their last 16 games played versus the NFC and 8-2 ATS their last 10 games played at home. Take the 49ERS. Thank you.

Bengals.

AFC NORTH GOM.

Game 114.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Cincy is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS this season and is looking for some revenge here after a late-October humiliating loss to Cleveland. The Bengals are playing solid ball, and making bettors money, covering nine of their last 10 outings. They have also covered 12 of their last 16 meetings with the Browns. Cincinnati is healthier, is at home, and is rolling. Take the Bengals. Thank you.

New York Jets.

No Limit.

Game 451.

Ready 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

For those of you who remember Rodney Dangerfield, his catchphrase was “I get no respect“. Meanwhile he was one of the most successful comedians that ever lived. I kind of think the New York Jets feel the same way. No matter what this team does, they just can’t earn any respect. No respect from the league. No respect from the media. And no respect from the odds makers. Well, we can’t do too much about the league or the media. But we can certainly take advantage of the odds makers. Not only does the team own one of the best records in the AFC at 7-4. But they’re also 7-4 against the spread in 2022. As far as the Minnesota Vikings go, I have been saying for quite a while now that this team is one of the luckiest in the NFL. Guys, I cannot argue the fact they have won nine-games. But they got a little luck in winning those nine-games. One thing for sure, you can’t bet on them because they’re just 5-5-1 against the spread this season. This tells me that the odds makers know the general public is going to bet on them and they inflate the line because of it. And once again here in this weeks match up, they’re doing that exact thing. Ya’ know they rank 32nd in the NFL in passing defense. The way Mike White looked last week passing for over 315 yards and three touchdowns, and most importantly, no interceptions, tells me he’s going to have another successful performance this week. On the flipside, very quietly New York possesses the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, yielding a mere 17.8-points per game. And being that Minny has no rushing attack to speak of, the Jets defense can key on the passing game, pressure Kirk Cousins, and force mistakes. New York has been money on the road this season covering four of five as a visitor. Oh, by the way this is usually the time of year when Minnesota starts to fold like a cheap suit, only covering twice over the last eight in the month of December. I like the Jets outright. But I’ll take the points here with Gang Green. Thank you.

Tennessee Titans.

High Roller.

Game 457.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

There is no questioning the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles are a very good football team. However over recent weeks we seen teams play them a lot tougher. They could not cover the point spread in Houston at the beginning of November. They lost outright at home against Washington. They eked out a one-point victory at Indianapolis. And then they got a little lucky with a seven -point victory over the struggling Green Bay team at home. Over the last month, each of their opponents have come to realize they can exploit the Eagles weakness. That is when adversaries control the clock and the time in possession. By running the football each of those opponents have made it very difficult for Philly and their office to get an any rhythm on the field. Well, this week they have to go up against one of the best running backs in the NFL in Derrick Henry. The stellar ball-carrier already has over 1,048 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground. You’re going to see a heavy dose of him running the ball and pounding the Eagles defense play after play. This will keep the Philly “D” honest and on the field. And most importantly Jalen Hurts and their offense off it. By the way, last weeks 20-16 loss to Cincinnati was Tennessee’s first no-cover since mid-September. They are 5-0 ATS the last five games played on the road, 4-1 ATS the last five games played following a straight up loss, and 8-1 ATS the last nine games played overall. Take Tennessee. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

Angle Play.

Game 460.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM PST.

You know guys, sports betting isn’t about who wins. It’s about who covers. And right now, no team is running as hot against the spread as the Detroit Lions. Detroit has covered four consecutive contests. Meanwhile they’ve also won three of their last four and to be honest, had the Buffalo Bills on the ropes the entire game last week. The Lions are without question, a much-improved team right now from the start of the season. And they are getting better with each passing week. And you know what folks, they’re getting healthier too. They should see the return of some key cogs in the wheel on both the offensive and the defensive squads this week. Lots of the headlines surrounding the Jaguars are about Trevor Lawrence orchestrating a game-winning drive last week against the Ravens. But in all sincerity, their defense was steamrolled the entire game. And I think we would all agree Lamar Jackson and Baltimore has been known to give up quite a few leads this season. I know both defenses here rank among the worst in the NFL. However, running back Jamaal Williams has very quietly tallied over 13 touchdowns on the ground. And wide receiver D’Andre Swift looks to be 100% healthy again. Having both of these guys full throttle this week will allow quarterback Jared Goff some time to do what he used to do… and that’s pick defenses apart. Let’s not forget Detroit had an extra few days to rest, heal, and prepare. And Dan Campbell has proven to be a pretty sharp guy. Jacksonville is 1-1-7 ATS the last nine games played on the road, 0-7 ATS the last seven games played in the month of December, 2-7 ATS the last nine games played versus teams with a losing record, and 5-13-1 ATS the last 19 games played overall. Detroit is 8-2 ATS the last 10 games played at home, 5-1 ATS the last six games played following in against the spread win, 5-2 ATS the last seven home games played versus teams with a losing road record, and 15-7 ATS the last 22 games played on field turf. Take the Lions as my best bet this week and take your bookmakers money. Thank you.

Michigan Wolverines.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME WINNER.

Game 324.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

The news of running back, Blake Corum sidelined here for the Big Ten Championship game moved the line slightly. And I’m here to tell you although the ball-carrier is an outstanding athlete, it won’t matter much. The Michigan backfield is deep. Edwards and Stokes are excellent running backs. They both have an enormous amount of experience. Both saw a lot of action this season. As a matter of fact, Edwards played in nine games and Stokes in 10. We’ve seen some very peculiar things occur during this college football campaign. We saw teams, despite winning, still dropping in rankings because they did not annihilate lesser opponents. Michigan not only needs to win this game they need to blow Purdue out. They rank second in the polls. As you may or may not know, they are only one of three undefeated teams. Going off earlier on Saturday is LSU and Georgia. The Bulldogs top the rankings. While I think the Tigers are no pushovers, I do expect Georgia to prevail. Also, earlier on Saturday the third-ranked Horned Frogs will have a tough time with the Wildcats. Then the one-loss Trojans played Friday night and have a very worthy adversary in the Utes (as of posting this game, the Pac-12 Title game has yet to take place). Then there is the fifth-ranked Buckeyes which also have just one loss. My point being, Michigan must go all out in this matchup on Saturday. Now I know there are naysayers out there that would think that after they defeated Ohio State a week ago, 45-23 that they might take their foot off the gas a bit or maybe even be in for a left down here. There is no way Head Coach, Jim Harbaugh will allow his boys to do anything but annihilate their opponent here on Saturday. He won’t take the chance. And he wants his team to be riding momentum for their next contest. Speaking of their opponent, Purdue is outclassed on both sides of the ball in this match up. Just FYI folks, the 23-points given up in last weeks win over Ohio State, was the most Michigan has allowed since late-September. I really don’t see the Boilermakers having any success, whether it be on the ground or in the air here. I don’t see them moving the chains. And I certainly don’t see them putting too many points on the board. They don’t have a ground game to speak of. That leaves their one-dimensional offense very vulnerable. They can pass the ball. I will give them that. But the Wolverines own the 11th-ranked pass defense in the nation. Being Purdue cannot run the ball, the Michigan “D” will be able to key on their passing game. On the flipside, I just don’t see Purdue slowing down the juggernaut which is the Michigan offense. Understand that they’ve been much bigger favorites than 16.5-points this season against better opposition and they covered those outings. They will cover the spread here again this week. Take the Wolverines. Thank you.

Ohio Bobcats.

MAC TITLE GAME WINNER.

Game 310.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

My friends it doesn’t have to be the SEC, the Big Ten, or even the Big 12 Championship game for you to make money in it. The 7-5 Toledo Rockets face the 9-3 Ohio Bobcats at Ford Field in Detroit for the Conference Championship. This is the 18th straight season that the title game for the MAC is being played on this field. You may not realize it, but Ohio is one of the hottest teams in college football. They began the campaign 2-3. But since the beginning of October, they have run off seven consecutive victories straight up. Oh, and by the way they’ve also covered eight straight. On the other hand, Toledo comes in here struggling. They have dropped their last two straight up. And have failed to cover five consecutive contests. Now sports fans, the line is off here. And I’ll tell you why it’s off. For most of the campaign Kurtis Roarke was at the helm for Ohio. He passed for over 3,200 yards with 25 TDs. He is out in this matchup. Now if he was playing, you would see the Bobcats closer to a touchdown favorite. But let’s pump the brakes on that guys. His back up CJ Harris doesn’t have a lot of experience. But is a solid quarterback. He threw for 196 yards and a touchdown in the air and ran for 65 yards and three more touchdowns on the ground in the victory over Bowling Green. My friends this team has an explosive passing attack and the lesser experienced quarterback has a lot of luxuries at his disposal. He’s got four receivers all with 500 or more yards receiving. And he has one of the best running backs in the conference in Sieh Bangura, who has over 884 yards rushing and 11 TDs on the ground and another 200 yards receiving and two touchdowns coming out of the backfield. This team is loaded with playmakers. So don’t worry about their quarterback situation. Defensively, they’re pretty damn good as well. I mean they’ve held their last six opponents an average of just 18.0 PPG. And that’s pretty darn good in the MAC folks. Toledo is 0-5 ATS the last five games played on a neutral site, 0-5 ATS the last five versus teams with a winning record, 0-5 ATS the last five versus conference opponents, and 1-6 ATS the last seven games played in December. Take the points with Ohio and take your bookmakers money. Thank you.

Guys I am all over the NFL LEADERBOARDS. My pro football has been HOT, HOT, HOT. And going into Conference Championships and Bowl Season the upcoming weeks in college football, I will crush every sports book on the planet. I have been documented at as much as 90% during this time of year in NCAA FOOTBALL. I have had Bowl campaigns in which I brought you nearly perfect Bowl seasons. This I the time of year you MUST follow a winning capper and I am one of the mot successful cappers in December and January in the history of this business. Grab a discount and ensure yourself a winning season.

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Thursday’s FREE WINNER: New England Patriots.

Game 302.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Do you know what I hear out of the Buffalo camp? I hear that travel has been an issue for this team, short weeks has recently been an issue for this team, and weather has been an issue for this team. You know what I don’t hear? Anybody taking responsibility for any of their issues. Guys, I’m not looking to put down the Buffalo Bills or their fans. But I will tell you looking closely at their record so far this season, this team is only a couple of unlucky plays away from being a sub .500 team. Yes, guys they will make the playoffs. But this isn’t the powerhouse many out there believe they are. First of all, Josh Allen is a good quarterback. But he’s not a genius guys. He is far from it. He still doesn’t know when to tuck the ball and take a sack or throw it out of bounds. Their offense has over 19 turnovers already. And they all fall on the shoulders of Josh Allen. This doesn’t bode well when you’re facing a defense like the Patriots possess. Not only did they allow just 18.4 points per game, but they’ve also snagged 16 turnovers already. They are equally good against the pass as they are the rush. Granted their offense leaves a lot to be desired. But to be very honest with you, the Buffalo defense is overworked and tired. Their last three outings, they’ve allowed 81 points to Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit. Every week their defense is leaking a little more and more. My friends, I feel this is the week that running back Rhamondre Stevenson will really break out against an overworked and tired Buffalo defense. This will allow Mac Jones to open up their passing game a bit. I also think you might catch the Bills maybe looking ahead a bit. Between this game and the next two contests, they are facing three division rivals in the Patriots, the Jets, and the Dolphins. The next three weeks will decide who takes the AFC East my friends. And right now, it isn’t looking like Buffalo. By the way, I think of all the players that are injured this week, linebacker Von Miller’s absence will be the most significant. Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS the last five games played on the road and 1-4-1 ATS the last six games played versus teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, New England is 7-3 ATS the last 10 games played at home and 4-0 ATS the last four games played versus AFC opponents. I really like the line on this game. So, I am siding with the Patriots. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

95% ANGLE PLAY.

Game 256.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Ron Rivera has the Washington Commanders not just believing they can win, he has them winning. This is a team that has won five of the last six straight up and is just a half-point away from covering six in a row. It seems that they are progressing with each game. If they were going to drop a game, it would’ve been last week in a letdown mode following the thumping of the Eagles a few weeks back. However, they came out strong a week ago and took down the Texans with authority. I don’t see the team slowing down. They have a very good chance of the postseason. Believe it or not they are still in the running for the Division. With teams like the Eagles and the Cowboys looking mortal, and the Giants, well being the Giants, the Commanders have a mathematical chance of taking the competitive NFC East. And what better team to face the Atlanta Falcons. Talk about a “Jekyll and Hyde” team. This team is not just struggling, they are also failing to get bettors paid covering just once since mid-October. The once high-flying aerial assault of their offense is currently ranked 31st, passing for just 154 yards per game. This offense solely relies upon the run. Well, that does not bode too well as Washington enters this matchup with the sixth ranked run defense. Overall, they allow just 20.3 points per game. I know their offense, statistically leaves a lot to be desired. But you can’t ignore the fact that they put up 55-points the last two weeks. One thing the Commanders string together is paydays for those who bet on them. They are 18-7-1 ATS 26 following a straight up win. Take Washington. Thank you.

Kansas State Wildcats.

VEGAS INSIDER MOVE GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 140.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

You know guys, when Kansas began the campaign at 5-0, both straight up and against the spread, people were out there talking that this was a Cinderella team and they were making headlines. But I’m here to tell you that the carriage has turned into a pumpkin and their 15 minutes of fame is over. Following their fast start, the Jayhawks have since gone just 1-5 straight up and just 2-4 against the spread. Now, I get it, this is a big rivalry. But, Kansas, let’s face it, they’ve done the bare minimum to become a bowl eligible. Now that’s a pat on the back for a head coach, Lance Leipold. But guys, they don’t need to even try here. Kansas State head coach, Chris Klieman has gone out of his way, taking a lot of pride beating up… nay in crushing their rival since he’s taken charge of the team, winning and covering the last three meetings by 28, 41, and 25-points. A win here gives the Wildcats what they want most, a rematch with the Horned Frogs in next weeks Big 12 Title game. Having a backup like Will Howard has done well for this team. The quarterback has thrown 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions filling in for injured starter, Adrian Martinez. Not only will the Wildcats dissect the Jayhawks 109th pass defense in the air. They will also decimate them on the ground with the 17th ranked rushing attack in the nation on the legs of Deuce Vaughn. The running back averages over 5.2 yards per carry. And has already accumulated over 1,148 rushing yards. He’s also pretty dangerous coming out of the backfield as a receiver, folks. On the flipside of the ball, KU will have a hell of a time trying to move the chains, let alone get in the end zone against the 15th ranked scoring defense of KSU. The Wildcats only allow a mere 18.7-points per game. And they have held some very good defenses in check once again this season. They have momentum, winning and covering their last two, and are riding an 8-3-1 ATS streak the last 12 overall. FYI guys, the Jayhawks are just 3-10 ATS the last 13 meetings in this rivalry. Take the Wildcats to crush here and take your bookmakers money. Thank you.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Game 199.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

Yes, I am well aware of the fact that the Trojans are looking for a big victory here to keep their CFP hopes alive. And I’m not looking to take anything away from USC. They certainly deserve their 10-1 record and their ranking of sixth in the polls. But they certainly got a little lucky this season. And to be honest, the odds makers tend to overvalue this team. Case in point, they are 4-4 against the spread over the last eight games. Outside of their contest against Colorado a few weeks ago, the USC defense has gotten steamrolled for 43, 37, 35, and 45-points just since mid-October. Their defense is tired and overworked. And when facing well-balanced offenses, they can be exploited. Let’s not sell Notre Dame so short, sports fans. After starting the season 0-2, the Fighting Irish have now rattled off eight wins over the last nine outings. This is a team that has run scores up (outside of their sole loss) on every single opponent since mid-September. They have a pounding running attack, which will take its toll on the USC overmatched defense. This will also allow Notre Dame to open up their passing game. Please remember this is a team that has put up over 31-points per game this season. The Trojans will be without several key defenders, including a fee in their secondary. When USC has the ball, they are without their leading rusher in Travis Dye, who was injured a few weeks ago. This is the matchup they will sorely miss their top ball-carrier. When they go to the air, which they have had a lot of success with this season, they must face the 16th ranked pass defense of Notre Dame. Irish head coach, Marcus Freeman has a very well-balanced team. Offensively, defensively, and on special teams, this team is very talented. They will also come into this game, agitated that they lost a few games in the beginning of the campaign and looking for a little redemption. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS the last seven on grass, 4-1 ATS the last five versus teams with a winning record, 11-3 ATS the last 14 following a straight up win, 13-3 ATS the last 16 on the road versus teams with winning home record, 19-7-1 ATS the last 28 overall on the road, and 13-6 ATS the last 19 overall. Take the Fighting Irish to keep this game very close. Thank you.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.

SUN BELT GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 175.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Due to their transition to the FBS level, James Madison is ineligible to participate in the Conference Championship game. In my opinion it wouldn’t matter. No matter what, making the Dukes a 14-point favorite over the 9-1 Chanticleers is a huge mistake made by the odds makers. This astounds me. Coastal Carolina won this conference in 2020, was one-game off the lead last season, and enters this match up with a one-game lead in the Sun Belt East, and is getting two touchdowns. As I said, this astounds me. They enter this matchup coming off a bye week because their game with Virginia was canceled. They are well-rested, healed, and very prepared for this match up with James Madison. Now maybe the line is way off because their starting quarterback, Grayson McCall is out. But the talented Jared Guest is expected to get the start. And if he falls into trouble, five year QB, Bryce Carpenter is ready to take his place. This team is strong enough and well-balanced enough to handle they’re starting quarterback sidelined here. Listen guys, the Dukes aren’t playing for anything. Just maybe some pride. But is pride enough to make this team a two touchdown favorite? I mean they’ve lost three of the last five straight up, failing to cover four of their last five. And to be honest with you, the games they lost weren’t even close. Their defense has been throttled in four of those last five, all ATS losses, allowing 45, 26, 34, and 40-points. This team is tired, overworked, and frustrated that they can’t play in the Championship game. The Chanticleers are 20-9 ATS the last 29 on the road. The Dukes are 1-10 ATS the last 11 versus teams with a winning record. Take Coastal Carolina. Thank you.

Iowa Hawkeyes.

Consensus winner.

Game 132.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

Yes, it’s true Iowa has struggled offensively. But when you’ve held your last four opponents to less than 11-points per game, you don’t have to score too many points. Oh, by the way during their current four-game win and cover streak, they have outscored their foes by 20, 21, 14, and three-points. A victory here puts the Hawkeyes in a position to play either the Wolverines or the Buckeyes in the Conference Title game. What better adversary to face to notch that well-needed win than the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is riding a five-game losing streak. Their offense is nonexistent and their defense is getting steamrolled. Their statistics offensively are some of the worst in the nation. And when you face one of the top defenses in college football, things are going to go from bad to worse. Granted, Iowa does not have an explosive offense. But their defense is so strong and gets opponents offenses off the field so quickly, that come the second half their “O” can exploit overworked and fatigued “D’s”. They have taken seven consecutive meetings and this series straight up. They need this victory. They will not let their foot off the gas. And they will crush another conference opponents here. Take the Hawkeyes. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

NO LIMIT PLAY.

Game 109.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Sports fans, I have been saying for months that I feel Minnesota is a very lucky team. Yes, I am noy going to argue the fact that they have won eight games. But I feel that scheduling and may be a little bit of luck has gone their way this season. If you look at the teams they’ve beaten, only one really good team did they get the better of and that was a few weeks ago at Buffalo, winning 33-30 in overtime. Let’s talk truth, they had a few things go their way for them to earn that victory. Other than that, they have played only two decent teams, and lost both of those contests in Philadelphia and against Dallas. In last weeks 40-3 embarrassing rout at the hands of the Cowboys, the Vikings weaknesses were exposed. One thing head coach Bill Belichick can do is exploit weaknesses. Put a pin in that we’re going to come back around to it. Very quietly, the Patriots are winning. They have won five of the last six straight up and six of their last seven against the spread. The Minnesota offensive line got flattened last week, allowing seven sacks. Like I said Belichick and his very smart coaching staff will exploit this weakness. Not only is the Vikings offensive line in for a long day here, but overall, their offense is going to have a tough time moving to chains whether it be on the ground or in the air against the top-10 Patriots “D”. In every category the stop-unit of New England is extremely strong. To add insult to injury, they only allow 16.9 points per game. Oh yeah, Minny has also lost one of their better receivers and a starting cornerback. Look for the New England offense to spring back to life here and further beat up on an overworked and overrated Vikings defense. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS the last seven in November, 3-0-1 ATS the last four on the road, and 3-0-1 ATS the last for versus teams with winning record. Take New England. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

ANGLE PLAY.

Game 106.

9:30 AM PST/12:30 PM EST.

Guys, I know how good the Buffalo Bills are. But this long and arduous season seems to be taking its toll on the team. And I think that we can all agree that over the last several weeks not only have they looked beatable, they have been beatable. This is a team that has dropped two of their last three and has failed to cover three of the last four. Their defense in the month of November has allowed 20, 33, and 23-points. Well, in comes the Detroit Lions, which have won and covered three straight. A victory here would put them in the NFC wildcard race. There is very little pressure on this them and they are starting to roll. Offensively, they account for over 25-points per game with a squad that is very well-balanced, having success both in the air and on the ground. It is through the air in which they will exploit the 20th ranked pass defense of Buffalo. Because they run the ball also with success, they can eat up the clock and keep the Bills defense on the field, and Josh Allen and their offense off it. I understand how poor the Lions defensive statistics are. But the Bills are looking mortal these days. Not only that, but their turnover ratio is now -3 over the last eight games. They’ve also only covered one of their last four as a visitor this season. Oh, by the way, they failed to cover the little last two as a double-digit favorite as well. Detroit is 6-0 ATS the last six in November, 7-2 ATS the last nine at home, 6-2 the last eight versus teams with a winning record, and 13-6 ATS the last 19 overall. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Ohio Bobcats.

MAC Game of the Week.

Game 102.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

This contest will decide the conference’s East champion and reserve the winner a place in the conference championship next Saturday. Ohio is one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning six outings in a row straight up. And for our purposes, covering seven straight as well. They have had their way in this series against Bowling Green, taking five straight meetings prior to last years devastating 21-10 upset in which the Falcons took down the Bobcats as a 17-point underdog. Revenge will play a big factor in this match up, guys. Both teams have explosive quarterbacks. However, the passing attack of Ohio is quite a bit more powerful. They also have a decent rushing attack while Bowling Green possesses a very low threat on the ground. Defensively, I expect the Bobcats stop-unit, which has tightened up quite a bit over the last few months, to frustrate the Falcons offense. Ohio is 21-8 ATS the last 29 versus teams with a winning record, 13-3 ATS the last 16 versus conference opponents, 6-2 ATS the last eight In November, and 4-1 ATS the last five at home. Take Ohio. Thank you.

Ball State Cardinals.

MAC Money Maker.

Game 103.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Guys, both teams are playing for their sixth victory and bowl eligibility here. Now Ball State comes off two losses. That’s no secret. But their two losses were very competitive contests against the two best in the MAC, Toledo and Ohio. Miami Ohio has a question mark on their quarterback tonight. But to be quite honest their passing game isn’t all that thrilling to begin with. They rank 122nd in the nation in passing. They’re also don’t possess the greatest rushing attack either. This is a team that averages just 20.5-points per game. They don’t score a lot of points, folks. They are pretty good defensively. But they will have a lot of problems facing the 1-2 punch of Ball State quarterback, John Paddock and MAC leading-rusher, Carson Steele. This is a very good offense, a very well-balanced offense. And it will be that rushing attack that will keep the Redhawks defense on the field and tire them out, especially as the game progresses. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS the last five versus teams with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-8 ATS the last 10 following an ATS win. Take the points is Ball State here. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 469.

5:25 PM PST/8:25 PM EST.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for Los Angeles, despite covering their last two outings. On both sides of the ball, the list of injured players is too long to even name. Kansas City has their own health issues. But I think we would all agree the Chiefs are much deeper and more talented than the Chargers. Looking at the L.A.’s five victories this season, not one has come against an opponent currently owning a winning record. Meanwhile K.C. is starting to stride, Patrick Mahomes is about to surpass 3,000 yards passing and as long as he has Travis Kelce at his disposal, the Chargers can not trade scores with the Chiefs. Kansas City is posting over 30.0 points per game while their “D” has held their last two foes to just 17.0 points per game. To make matters worse for Los Angeles, they have failed to cover the last three at SoFi Stadium. The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS the last nine in Los Angeles and 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

91% ANGLE PLAY.

Game 457.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

You know sports fans, with the Eagles looking mortal and the Cowboys…well looking like the Cowboys, the Commanders certainly have a chance at possibly competing for the NFC East crown. Moreover, sitting at 5-5 right now and a lot of NFC mid-level squads like the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Falcons all dropping games a week ago, this team has a very, very good chance at making the postseason. Taylor Heinicke will remain the starting QB, and why not? He’s been adequate and will be under center for his fifth start this season. Chase Young is expected to make his return. While it was released and he will be on “pitch count“, he will still have an impact on this game. Washington enters this matchup motivated and rolling. Let’s face it, they’re a half-point away from covering five straight and a little better than a field goal away from winning five straight. This is a team that is playing with momentum, enthusiasm, and optimism. No, they’re not flashy, but they do play good solid football. It seems that with each passing week, they are getting better and better. Their defense is holding teams to just over 21-points per game. And as I mentioned, their offense is improving with each outing. As a matter fact, the 32-points they put up, throwing a monkey wrench into Philly’s perfect season was the most they’ve accounted for in any outing thus far. On the other hand, the Houston Texans own the worst record in the NFL at 1-7-1. This is a team with very little talent, playing with no motivation, and let’s be honest, a head coach who hasn’t led a winning team in over a decade. They pose almost no threat offensively. And I feel things are going to get worse for this team. There are rumors that the Texans might have a quarterback change very soon. But it really doesn’t matter who is at the helm here, this team has very little talent. And because their offense is so weak, their defense is overworked. The Commanders are 15-6-1 ATS the last 22 games played following a straight up win, 4-1-1 ATS the last six games played versus teams with a losing record, 6-0-1 ATS the last seven games played in November, and 4-0-1 ATS the last five games played overall. Take Washington here. Thank you.

New York Giants.

High Roller Play

Sunday, November 20, 2022.

Game 462.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

-3.

Consensus.

The New York Giants are sitting in second place in the competitive NFC East, just one-game behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Many people out there feel that the Eagles schedule wasn’t the toughest so far this season. And judging from their performance on Monday night against the Washington Commanders, I think we all can visibly see they have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Just FYI my friends, they have trouble against teams that can run the ball and control the time of possession. And over the following few weeks, they are facing opponents that have strong rushing attacks. My point being, New York has a very good opportunity to win this division. But they can only do so if they keep their foot on the gas. They face a Detroit Lions team here that ranks 32nd in the league defensively. That’s right, they are dead-last in points allowed, getting steamrolled for over 29.3-points per game. To be quite honest, every major defensive category they rank amongst the worst in the NFL. But the one that truly stands out to me in this game, is their 31st ranking against the rush. Let’s put a pin in that and come back around to it. Detroit had only one straight up victory up until the last few weeks. They did beat Green Bay at home and Chicago on the road this month. But let’s talk turkey (so close to Thanksgiving LOL). Neither the Packers nor the Bears have any sort of offense. We all know that Aaron Rodgers is struggling as the team possesses the poorest record and some of their worst statistics in as far back as we can remember. As far as Chicago goes, no one expected them to do too much this season, and yet they’re still underachieving. By the way folks, these are two teams that Detroit knows very well and see several times each season, sharing the same division. Going back to New York, following their first loss of the 2022/2023 campaign in late-September, they then rattled off four consecutive wins and covers. They did lose a few weeks ago in Seattle. But last week they absolutely decimated Houston at home. This tells me they will start rolling again. Now offensively the Giants possess the third-ranked rushing attack in football. Saquon Barkley has accumulated over one 931 yards rushing and six touchdowns on the ground. You’re going to see a heavy dose of him this week. Not only that but he also has 29 receptions. He will star in his own highlight reel here in this matchup. He will keep the Lions defense honest, move the chains, and cross the goal line at will. His presence will also allow Daniel Jones to open up the passing game. The quarterback has very quietly passed for just under 1,600 yards on a 65.8% completion rate, with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. He doesn’t make many mistakes. He’s not flashy. But he doesn’t have to be in this offense. This is also a unit that makes very little mistakes altogether, only committing three turnovers thus far this season. With the running attack New York possesses, they will control the time of possession, keep the Detroit defense on the field, and most importantly, Jared Goff and the Lions offense off it. When Goff and the “O” is on the field, they will have a tough time against a Giants “D” that is holding opponents to under 20-points per game (19.6 PPG). The Giants are 20-8-1 ATS the last 29 games played versus teams with a losing record, 4-1 ATS the last five games played at home, 8-2 ATS the last 10 games played in the month of November, and 5-1 ATS the last six games played overall. Take New York. Thank you.

Oklahoma State Cowboys.

OM Play.

Game 403.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

On my two different sets of power ratings, I have Oklahoma -3 on one and Oklahoma State -1.5 on the other. Either way the odds makers are giving the Sooners way too much credit in this game and once again is overvaluing them. I mean let’s be honest, this is a team that’s only covered once since mid-September and they are an overall 3-7 against the spread this season. Brett Venables defense has a bigger hole in it than the one left by that iceberg in the Titanic. They are allowing just shy of 30-points per game, ranking among the worst in the nation against the rush, and are almost just as bad against the pass. This does not bode well as they are facing one of the most explosive and well-balanced offenses in the conference. Oklahoma State accounts for 34.9-points per game. And you can expect quarterback Spencer Sanders (check status) to most likely play here. Last week he did not start. But did come in and lead the Cowboys to a victory. Oklahoma State needs this win as they are in a deadlock for third place in the Big 12 with Baylor and Texas at 4-3 in conference play. They’re sitting just behind Kansas State, which is at 5-2. If he plays, I do expect the 20th ranked aerial assault of the Cowboys to absolutely dissect the very weak Sooners pass defense. Either way whether it is Sanders or one of his able backups, the receiving corps is stacked with talent and will light up the scoreboard here. Understand that this is one of the oldest and most heated rivalries in college football. OSU is going to want their best at the helm. And either way the Oklahoma defense is so poor it has resulted in the Sooners offense being overworked. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS the last 12 on the road, 13-4-1 ATS the last18 versus conference opponents, and 5-0 ATS the last five on grass. Take Oklahoma State. Thank you.

Tennessee Volunteers.

BEST BET.

Game 327.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

With a victory this week sports fans, Tennessee can secure a 10-win season for the first time in over 15 years. But more importantly guys, the fifth-ranked Volunteers are right outside the College Football Playoff bubble. The Bulldogs, Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Horned Frogs are all ranked in front of them. And are all undefeated. As we all know anything could happen at the end of the college football regular season and this year more than ever teams need to impress the pollsters by running up scores and keeping the foot on the gas. If last weeks 66-24 thumping of Missouri will be any sign of what Tennessee is going to do this week to South Carolina, laying this type of wood isn’t going to be a problem. Last October, the Volunteers took down the Gamecocks 45-20 to give them their third consecutive win and their fourth consecutive cover in this rivalry. I’ve got to tell you guys; UT is much better on both side of the ball this season than a season ago. They are ranked number one in the country in scoring, averaging over 47.4-points per game as they are equally strong on the ground as well as in the air. Granted, South Carolina is pretty good against the pass, but they rank 113th nationally against the run. And this is where UT will do most of their damage and eventually open up their passing game. Let’s face it, we all know the Gamecocks are handicapped offensively (LOL). Not only do they only score 28.6-points per game, but they also commit a lot of turnovers. This doesn’t bode well when you’re dealing with a very nasty Vols “D”. There is no way South Carolina is going to be able to move the chains here, let alone get into the endzone. I look for Tennessee to really put their stamp on the season, let the posters know that their loss against Georgia was just that… a loss against the top team in the country. And I look for them to keep their name in the College Football Playoff picture. The Volunteers are 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 at the Gamecocks, 4-1 ATS the last five versus conference opponents, and 5-1 ATS the last six overall. This is a team that’s already covered lines of 37, 47.5, 38.5, and 18.5 this 

Iowa Hawkeyes.

CONSENSUS MOVE.

Game 367.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

My friends, Iowa has a chance, nay an excellent chance to face either Ohio State or Michigan for the Big 10 championship in a few weeks. I’m going to save you the roadmap of how this can happen. But take my word for it, it can happen. Outside of contests against the Wolverines and the Buckeyes, this team has held every single opponent this season to 13-points or less. They rank 10th in the nation stopping the pass. Now Minnesota has no passing game whatsoever. The Golden Gophers solely rely upon the run. And the Hawkeyes possess the nations seventh ranked run defense. While Minnesota’s defense ranks in the top-five as well, they have been exploited several times this season. And when they face aggressive defenses, they tend to fold like a cheap suit offensively. Case in point, they put up 10 against Purdue, 14 against Illinois, and 17 against Penn State. All of which were both straight up and against the spread losses. Granted, the Iowa offense leaves a lot to be desired. But their defense gets opponents offenses off the field so quickly, eventually their offense can wear defenses down from overwork and fatigue. They’ve held their last three opponents to a total of 16-points. They have dominated this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 straight up and eight of the last 10 against the spread. I look for this team to not just win big here this week, but also get a win next week against Nebraska, and eventually face either Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game. Take the Hawkeyes. Thank you.