San Diego comes into this game off a bye week so they are fresh and the travel east will not impact them. The Chargers are off back-to-back wins over the Colts and Jaguars in which they had good defensive efforts. But the Colts had their worst offensive game of the season (267 total yards) and the Jaguars are simply the worst team in the NFL. The Chargers did allow 353 yards to the Jaguars which is 67 yards more than Jacksonville averages. Those two games are not a true indication of how bad the Chargers

Kansas City has looked impressive in the win/loss column, but a deeper investigation reveals some major flaws being masked by their wins. The Chiefs are the phoniest 8-0 team in recent NFL memory. Kansas City has played a woeful schedule as their opponents are a collective 20-41 SU on the season; none of their eight opponents have a record better than .500 this year. The Chiefs

The Dolphins have struggled offensively this season and they were shutout 24-0 in the second half last Sunday at New England after building a 17-3 halftime lead. It is unlikely that the Dolphins will suddenly fix their offensive woes with just three days to prepare for this Thursday night game. Overall, Miami is averaging only 311 total yards per game and just 5.3 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 348 yards and 5.5 yppl). The Dolphins have been particularly bad running the ball, averaging only 89 rushing yards per game.

Miami will now be facing a solid Cincinnati defense that held the Jets to just 9 total points last week and overall is permitting only 18.0 points per game this season and just 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 23.3 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Cincinnati has been especially strong versus the pass, allowing just 5.8 yards per pass this year (versus opponents that average 6.6 ypp). This solid secondary is important tonight versus a Miami offense that is throwing for 71% of their total yards this season.

Miami is a decent defensive team and this is a tough scheduling spot for the Bengals who must travel and play on just three days rest. Cincinnati is the better team and they hold a significant statistical matchup edge, but the situation favors Miami as the home team on a short week, so the best way to play this game tonight looks to be the total as I expect both defenses to play well.

9* Play UNDER (Bengals/Dolphins).

This game is a major mismatch as Seattle is the much better team on both sides of the ball, plus St. Louis will now be without starting quarterback Sam Bradford who is out with a knee injury. While Seattle should win this game easily, there is no value laying double-digits on the road, especially as this line is now approaching two full touchdowns. In fact, double-digit home underdogs have been a long-term 60% ATS play in this situation, so while the matchup favors Seattle, the technical situation favors the Rams.

The safer play is the total in this game and the Under presents value as the Rams will likely struggle offensively with backup quarterback Kellen Clemens under center. Clemens has been an awful during this eight year NFL career with the Jets and Rams. Clemens has a terrible 51.2% completion percentage and has barely averaged 6.0 yards per pass with a negative 7/13 TD/INT ratio and a career 62.2 QB rating. Clemens will now be facing a strong Seattle pass defense that is allowing just 5.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 6.5 ypp). Making matters worse for St. Louis is the fact they have no running game this season since losing veteran RB Steven Jackson to Atlanta in the off-season. Jackson had rushed for 1,000+ yards in each of the past eight seasons, but now the Rams are averaging only 71 rushing yards per game as a team this year and an awful 3.2 yards per rush (versus opponents that allow 4.2 ypr). St. Louis will struggle to move the ball tonight and their lack of a passing attack means a quick score or a late garbage touchdown in this game is not likely.

Seattle is a run-based offense and they will look to establish their ground game tonight which will keep the clock moving and shorten this game. The Seahawks will also become more conservative if they establish a double-digit lead which is likely in this game. Seattle averages 154 rushing yards per game, but they still have some issues on their offensive line. The Seahawks have been strong defensively this season, allowing just 16.6 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play (versus opponents that average 21.0 ppg and 5.4 yppl).

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay waxed Cleveland last week 31-13 despite missing some of their better offensive players. That was the Packers third straight win and ATS cover and they should add to those totals after this game on Sunday night in Minnesota. The Packers

Washington got off to a slow start this season because QB RG III missed all of the preseason. His first game action came in the season opener so the sluggish start for the Redskins was expected. However, RG III and the Redskins

Dallas comes in off back-to-back wins over division rivals Washington and Philadelphia. The Cowboys had poor offensive efforts in those games, but we attribute that to the familiarity of the opponents. Prior to their last two games, Dallas scored a total of 100 points in their previous three games. The Cowboys

After beginning the season 3-0 SU and ATS, Miami has gone in the opposite direction by going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 games. The Dolphins were overvalued early on this season, and with their recent downward trend, we see a team that is now undervalued in the pointspread. Aside from their 21-point loss in New Orleans, the Dolphins two losses have come by a combined 5 points; a 3-point loss to the Ravens and a 2-point loss to the Bills last Sunday. Despite losing those games, Miami played well enough to win, especially last week against the Bills since they outgained Buffalo and only allowed 178 passing yards.

New England simply does not have the same offense we

Carolina is in tremendous form right now. The Panthers have won three of their last four games while also going 3-1 ATS in those games. Carolina has won those three games by a combined score of 103-25; the Panthers are finally starting to play to their talent level. Over their last four games, Carolina has been a dominating team. They

Both teams have struggled mightily this season. Minnesota comes in with a 1-4 record while New York is winless at 0-6. The Vikings will be playing their fourth game away from home and we expect tonight

Most of the focus in this game will be on the return of Peyton Manning to Indianapolis. But that only creates a distraction for Denver, and despite their perfect 6-0 record, the Broncos are not as invincible as they seem. The Broncos

Houston suffered another loss last week when the Rams beat them 38-13. That was the fourth consecutive loss for the Texans after they opened the season at 2-0. Houston took a ton of sharp money in that game, but the Texans imploded. Despite losing that game by 25 points, Houston held a 27-15 first down edge and they out-yarded the Rams by 204 yards (420-216). Incredibly, the Texans have won the stats in every game this season. Turnovers have been the issue and they have a -8 turnover margin in their last two games. Houston will start Case Keenum at quarterback, and that change should spark this team. Keenum was fantastic in the preseason for the Texans as they led the NFL in offensive yards per game (444.2), passing yards (300.2), total yards per play (6.2) and first downs per game (25). Keenum hit 68.3% (43-63) of his passes for 482 yards while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Kansas City may be the phoniest 6-0 team in recent NFL memory. The Chiefs have played a woeful schedule as their opponents are a collective 11-25 on the season; the 0-6 Jaguars and Giants are part of that group. Kansas City

The difference in talent level in the NFL is slim despite what a team

Cincinnati comes in off back-to-back wins over New England and Buffalo. The Bengals had good defensive efforts in those games, but neither the Patriots nor the Bills are playing at full capacity on offense. Two games before that Cincinnati faced the weak offenses of Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Bengals have faced just two strong passing offenses so far this season and they allowed 24 points to the Bears and 30 points to the Packers. And that was when the Bengals