Carolina and New Orleans match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Panthers come into this game off a poor offensive performance at home versus Tampa Bay last Monday night; they only scored 14 points despite putting up 414 yards of total offense with backup QB Derek Anderson under center.  Carolina will get Cam Newton back on the field, so the Panthers will bounce back with a much better offensive performance today, especially since they are facing a New Orleans defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Saints are giving up 32.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  

New Orleans’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 33 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 65.9% of his passes while averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Brees has thrown for 1,268 yards with a 10/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 24.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Panthers’ secondary is allowing a woeful 10.2 yards per pass attempt on the road, so Brees will throw the ball all over the field in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Saints on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game off a terrible performance in Minnesota last week.  The Giants lost that game 24-10, but there’s little shame in having their worst offensive game of the season against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.  Off that terrible showing, we expect New York to bounce back with a strong effort, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  The Giants’ offense has averaged 6.2 yards per play despite only averaging 18.2 points per game.  New York’s offense has been able to move the ball up and down the field, but they’ve failed to turn that production into points.  Green Bay’s defense is giving up 22.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Giants will take advantage of that mediocre defense tonight.

Green Bay is 2-1 on the season, and the Packers come into this game fresh off a bye.  In their lone home game this season, Green Bay scored 34 points with quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing four touchdown passes on a terrible Lions secondary.  Rodgers gets another easy matchup tonight against a New York defense that got carved-up by Kirk Cousins two weeks ago.  Overall, Green Bay’s offense is averaging 25.1 points per game versus defenses giving up 21.9 points per game on just 5.4 yards per play.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, so look for a high-scoring game between the Giants and Packers on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Buffalo came thru with a Best Bet winner for us last week in their 16-0 win over the Patriots, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.  Buffalo comes in off back-to-back dominating wins over Arizona and New England, and those wins set them up to regress sharply this afternoon.  Buffalo is on the road for a second consecutive week, but this time they had to make a cross-country trip.  Buffalo’s offense is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Points won’t come easy against a Los Angeles defense that only gave up 3 total points to Seattle in their lone home game this season.

Los Angeles got embarrassed 28-0 by San Francisco in their season opener, but they’ve won all three of their games since then.  The Rams will play just their second home game of the season, and they are catching the Bills in a terrible scheduling and situational spot to boot.  Los Angeles’ offense isn’t going to wow anybody, but their opponent today also has a terrible offense.  The Rams win games with their strong defense, and that will be the case once again in this game.  Los Angeles’ defense is only giving up 19 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.  This game won’t be pretty, but we expect Los Angeles to come out with their fourth straight win on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (+).

Atlanta lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay, but since then they’ve won three consecutive games with two of those games coming on the road.  The Falcons won all three games in high-scoring shootouts, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Atlanta dominated their last two games; they beat New Orleans 45-32 and Carolina 48-33.  Neither one of those games was actually close, and that sets Atlanta up to regress this afternoon, especially since they are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 38 points per game on a whopping 7.8 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced four awful defenses that are giving up 30.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Atlanta will now face a Denver defense that allows just 16 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per play less than the defenses Atlanta has faced so far this season.

Denver is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the season.  The Broncos have dominated three of their four opponents while winning by a combined score of 111-64.  Denver’s offense is averaging 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We expect a strong offensive performance in this game since the Broncos will be facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver will start Paxton Lynch at quarterback after Trevor Siemian got hurt last week.  But that’s of little concern since we expect the Broncos’ stout defense to control this game from start to finish.  Lynch played the majority of the game last week at Tampa Bay and the rookie played well, averaging 7.1 yards per pass with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio and a 94.1 QB rating.  We’ll lay the points with Denver on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

New York opened the season with back-to-back wins before losing at home last week to Washington.  The Giants have faced three poor defensive teams, but tonight they will face one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New York has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Giants are only averaging 21 points per game despite playing against defenses that allow 26.6 points per game.  Minnesota’s defense only gives up 13.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play, so New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with consistency in this game, especially since the Giants will be without their top two running backs.

Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season despite playing without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings are winning with their stout defense, and nothing will change tonight against the Giants.  Minnesota possesses a defense that is allowing -13.3 points per game less, and a whopping -1.6 yards per play less than the defenses New York has faced so far this season.  Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford has played well in Bridgewater’s place, and he should have another productive game tonight.  The Vikings' new home field is extremely loud and further enhances Minnesota's defensive edge, so we’ll back the Vikings on Monday night.

10* Play VIKINGS (-).

Kansas City and Pittsburgh both come into this game with 2-1 records, but last week had the teams with opposite outcomes.  The Chiefs beat the Jets 24-3 at home while the Steelers lost 34-3 in Philadelphia.  Tonight’s game will have the Chiefs’ defense taking a major step back as the Steelers’ offense will bounce back with a strong performance.  Kansas City’s defensive numbers appear to be good; they are only giving up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  However, the opposing offenses have been extremely weak while only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a potent Pittsburgh offense off a terrible performance, so expect the Chiefs’ worst defensive game of the season.

Pittsburgh has played just one home game so far, and that came in a driving rainstorm against divisional rival Cincinnati.  The Steelers still scored 24 points in that game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been highly explosive at home, especially quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  He owns an incredible 42/13 touchdown/interception ratio while averaging 342 passing yards per game at home over the last three seasons.  Kansas City’s defense was shredded by Philip Rivers in the season opener, and Roethlisberger will do the same tonight.  Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 6.5 yards per play, so Kansas City’s offense will also score their share of points.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Steelers on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Denver is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Broncos come in off a big win in Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs last Sunday.  Denver will now play back-to-back road games while making their second straight trip to the East Coast.  The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 on the season, but they’ve been underdogs in two of those games, including their home opener against Carolina.  The Broncos are laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they matchup poorly against.  Tampa Bay’s offensive strength is running the football while Denver’s defensive weakness is stopping the run.  The Broncos have allowed 127.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush versus offenses that only run for 104.3 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush.  That statistic is even worse than it appears since Denver held significant leads in two of their three games this season.  

Tampa bay was expected to have a breakout season, but the Buccaneers come into this game with a 1-2 record.  Tampa Bay dominated their season opener in Atlanta (31-24 win), but their last two games have been awful.  The Buccaneers got blown out by 33 points (40-7) in Arizona, and last week lost a high-scoring shootout 37-32 at home to Los Angeles.  Off those back-to-back ugly performances, we expect Tampa Bay to bring their ‘A’ game against the Broncos.  The Buccaneers are catching Denver at the perfect time, and they own a big scheduling advantage since they are at home for a second consecutive week.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Carolina comes into this game off a terrible performance at home against Minnesota last week.  The Panthers lost that game 22-10, but there’s little shame in having a poor offensive game against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.  Off that terrible showing, we expect Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort, especially since they’ll be taking a major step-down in class against Atlanta.  The Panther’s offense has averaged 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus a collection of defenses that are only allowing 20 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is giving up 23.3 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Those numbers show that Carolina has been an above average team on both sides of the ball so far this season.

Atlanta has had a surprising winning season so far; the Falcons were predicted to be a mediocre team once again in 2016.  The Falcons are 2-1 on the season, and they come into this game off their best effort to date, a 45-32 victory in New Orleans last Monday night.  Atlanta now returns home on a short week while taking a major step-up in class.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced three awful defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Carolina defense that allows 7.4 points and 1.9 yards per play less than the defenses the Falcons have faced.  Atlanta’s defense is terrible as they’ve allowed their opponents to average 30.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Carolina is the superior team, so we’ll back the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Buffalo is a disappointing 1-2 on the season, but the Bills do have some momentum after waxing Arizona 33-18 last Sunday.  Buffalo’s two losses only came by 6 points apiece, so they have yet to lose by more than the posted pointspread on this game.  The Bills have played above average football on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Buffalo is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Bills average 119.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush; their opponents only give up 96.9 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  Buffalo’s ability to run the ball successfully will have a major impact on this game as New England’s defense has allowed a mediocre slate of rushing offenses that only average 3.8 yards per rush to average 4.4 yards per rush.      

New England has a perfect 3-0 record, and the odds of them going 4-0 without quarterback Tom Brady would have been astronomical if a proposition was listed to bet prior to the season.  The Patriots have cruised to easy wins in their last two games despite playing two young and inexperienced quarterbacks.  Jimmy Garoppolo led the Patriots out to a 24-0 lead against Miami before getting hurt two weeks ago.  Rookie Jacoby Brissett replaced the injured Garoppolo, and finished the game against the Dolphins before leading New England to a 27-0 win over the Texans the following Thursday night.  Off those back-to-back dominating performances, New England will now lay a full touchdown into a division opponent in a game where they are highly unlikely to play their best.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Miami and Cincinnati both come into this game with 1-2 SU records with Miami’s win coming in their last game while Cincinnati’s win came in their season opener.  Miami has played in three wild games; they lost 12-10 in Seattle with just 31 seconds left to play in their season opener.  They trailed 24-0 in the first half in New England before rallying back and losing 31-24.  Last week, the Dolphins led 24-13 in the fourth quarter at home versus the Browns, but then needed overtime to win 30-24.  Those are three consecutive draining games, and Miami must now travel on short rest (4 days) and play their third road game in just four weeks.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Dolphins tonight.

Cincinnati was fortunate to beat the Jets 23-22 in their first game of the season, and since then, they’ve been non-competitive in losses to the Steelers and Broncos.  Cincinnati could very well be 0-3 right now.  However, the Bengals’ offense has been able to move the ball despite only averaging 18.7 points per game.  Cincinnati is averaging 6.2 yards per play while the Dolphins defense has allowed 5.7 yards per play versus mediocre offenses that have been averaging just 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals will likely have their best offensive game to date, and they hold a situational edge at home tonight on the short week, so we’ll lay the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Atlanta comes into this game with a 1-1 SU/ATS after winning 35-28 in Oakland last Sunday.  That win looks even better now considering the Raiders are 2-0 SU in their other games, including a win at New Orleans.  The Falcons’ offense has been tremendous in their two games.  Atlanta is averaging 29.5 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.8 yards per play.  The Falcons will face a New Orleans defense that has given up 25.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play against offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

New Orleans is desperate at 0-2 SU on the season.  The Saints lost at home to Oakland in their season opener, and lost last week in New York against the Giants.  While the Saints will likely come with a spirited effort, that may not be enough in what’s expected to be a high-scoring shootout (O/U line is 53.5).  New Orleans has no running game whatsoever; the Saints are only averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  They are a one-dimensional team to the pass, but that’s not good when facing an opposing offense that can move the ball on the ground and thru the air.  We’ll back Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

The Chicago Bears slogged thru a miserable 6-10 season last year, and they’ve picked-up right where they left off.  Chicago is 0-2 on the season after losses to the Texans and Eagles with the latter being an embarrassing effort on Monday night.  Quarterback Jay Cutler is out after hurting his thumb, but truth be told, that’s a positive thing for Chicago’s offense.  Brian Hoyer plays with much more gusto and confidence than Cutler, and we expect a surprisingly strong offensive game from the Bears tonight.  Chicago will face a Dallas defense that is allowing 21.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that only average 18.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.

Dallas is 1-1 on the season under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.  He was the talk of the preseason, and so far so good in the regular season.  Prescott will look like he did in the preseason as he’ll be facing a Chicago defense that is decimated with injuries.  The Bears will be without five defensive starters tonight after they all got hurt in the last game.  Prescott dominated second unit defenses in the preseason, and that’s essentially what he’s facing tonight.  Overall, the Bears have given up 26 points per game despite playing a pair of offenses that only average 21.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Bears and Cowboys on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game in Jacksonville with a perfect 2-0 record, but they’ve been less than impressive in those wins.  The Ravens beat Buffalo 13-7 at home in their season opener.  The fact that Baltimore only scored 13 points after seeing the Bills give up 37 points at home to the Jets is a negative sign for the Ravens.  Last week, Baltimore trailed 20-0 in Cleveland before rallying back for a 25-20 win.  The Ravens have played two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they’ve looked terrible in both games.  And the on-field numbers back that assessment up.  Baltimore’s offense is only averaging 19 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens simply have no business laying points on the road right now.

Jacksonville is a disappointing 0-2 on the season; the Jaguars were slated to be a much better team in 2016.  However, the winless record can be excused as Jacksonville faced two good teams so far in the Packers and Chargers.  There’s no shame in losing those two games, and since they come into this game desperate for a win, we expect Jacksonville’s best effort this afternoon.  The Jaguars have a dynamic offense that has averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.8 yards per play this season.  That means Baltimore’s defense will be taking a major step-up in offensive class after facing the inept offenses of the Bills and Browns.  Baltimore is not as good as their 2-0 record indicates while Jacksonville is much better than their 0-2 record indicates, so we’ll take the points with the undervalued home underdog on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play JAGUARS (+).

Washington has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball.  The Redskins defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 24 points and 379 yards per game.  On the road last season, Washington gave up 21 points or more in all eight of their games while giving up an average of 28.8 points per game.  The Redskins gave up 32 points to the Giants in New York last season.  In two games so far this season, Washington has given up 38 points to Pittsburgh and 27 points to Dallas.  And both of those games were at home.  Overall, Washington is allowing 32.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 27 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New York is 2-0 on the season after squeaking out close wins over the Cowboys and Saints.  The Giants’ offense has yet to put things together while scoring just 20 and 16 points in their two games.  However, we expect New York’s potent offense to breakout in a major way this afternoon against the pathetic Washington defense.  Quarterback Eli manning is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season, and he’ll be throwing against a Redskins defense that is allowing a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Giants offense will have little resistance, and we certainly expect them to easily eclipse 28 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Redskins on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia won their season opener in impressive fashion under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.  The Eagles beat the Browns 29-10 after out-gaining them 403-288.  Wentz completed 22 passes for 278 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  But that was just one game at home against a poor Cleveland team that is now 0-2 after losing at home to the Ravens yesterday.  Philadelphia will now travel and play at Chicago with Wentz making his first road start in the NFL.  Tonight’s game will present a much stiffer challenge for Wentz and the entire Eagles offense as Chicago’s defense is significantly better than Cleveland’s defense.

Chicago lost their season opener 23-14 in Houston.  That loss doesn’t look so bad now after the Texans came back and shutdown the Chiefs in a 19-12 win yesterday.  The Bears actually led that game 14-10 at the half before completely falling apart in the third and fourth quarters.  As alluded to above, Chicago’s defense played a fantastic game as they held the Texans to just 344 yards of total offense on just 4.9 yards per play.  To compare, Philadelphia’s offense faced a Cleveland defense that allowed 5.5 yards per play.  Chicago is undervalued while Philadelphia is overvalued simply due to last week’s results, so we’ll back the Bears in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play BEARS (-).

Green Bay escaped Jacksonville with a fortunate 27-23 win last week.  The Packers were out-yarded 348-294 while also losing the first down battle 20-18.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 58.8% (20-34) of his passes for 199 yards on just 5.9 yards per pass attempt.  And that was against a mediocre Jaguars defense.  Now Green Bay will play on the road for the second consecutive week while taking a monumental step-up in defensive class.  Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the league, and it’s likely Green Bay will struggle on offense for the second consecutive game.

Minnesota also got a fortunate win last week when they beat the Titans 25-16.  However, the Vikings were on the road, and playing their first game without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  They had an extremely vanilla offensive game plan in hopes of just getting in and out with a win.  It worked, but tonight we expect to see a much different Minnesota offense with Sam Bradford under center for the first time.  The Vikings will still lean heavily on Adrian Peterson, but with Minnesota opening their new stadium on national TV, we expect a peak performance by the home team on Sunday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Tennessee’s offense played much better than it appears on paper.  The Titans only scored 16 points in a home loss to the Vikings, but they led 10-0, and started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points.  The Titans still averaged 5.0 yards per play, and quarterback Mario Mariota completed 25 passes for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Titans and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Tennessee lost 25-16 at home to the Vikings in their season opener last week.  The Titans played much better than it appears on paper.  Tennessee built a 10-0 lead against Minnesota, and at that point, the Titans offense started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points while turning this game into a misleading final score.  In reality, the Titans defense held Minnesota’s offense to just 11 points on 301 yards of total offense.

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Detroit’s defense was terrible, and we expect Mariota and the Titans offense to have a lot of success as well.  Last week’s results creates a lot of value on the underdog, so we’ll take Tennessee plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TITANS (+).

Pittsburgh will be without a couple of key offensive weapons for tonight’s season opener in Washington.  Running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant are both suspended, and they are the go-to guys for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben has an emerging performance pattern over the last two seasons where he has performed significantly better at home than on the road.  At home, Roethlisberger owns an incredible 39/11 touchdown/interception ratio over the past two years.  But on the road, Roethlisberger has a 14/14 TD/INT ratio, and without his two best offensive playmakers, it’s hard to imagine a big game from Pittsburgh’s quarterback tonight.

Washington played well down the stretch in 2015 as they won their final four games all straight-up as an underdog to win their division and make the playoffs.  The Redskins are healthy and at full strength coming into this season, so that gives them a nice edge over the Steelers tonight.  Washington was also a much better team at home last year where they went 6-2 SU in the regular season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog.  The Redskins have the offense to exploit a terrible Pittsburgh secondary, and that will be magnified since the Steelers have injury concerns to their pass rushers.  Washington is simply in much better shape coming into this game and the Redskins present value at home on Monday night.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

New England will be without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season due to a suspension.  The Patriots will also be without Rob Gronkowski because of an injury.  While it’s true the Patriots are shorthanded and starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, don’t underestimate head coach Bill Belichick having all training camp to formulate a game plan for Arizona.  Belichick is the best in the business at finding and attacking an opponent’s weakness, so we can expect the Patriots to be well-prepared for the Cardinals on both sides of the ball in this game.

Arizona is certainly a very good team that also has an excellent head coach in Bruce Arians.  However, the Cardinals have performed poorly as a home favorite under Arians over his three seasons on the job.  Arizona is just 8-9 ATS when laying points at home, including a woeful 3-6 ATS in that role in 2015.  The Cardinals are a team built to excel as an underdog, and in fact, Arizona is 15-8 ATS when getting points under Arians.  Arizona’s offense will be facing a New England defense that should be stout once again this season; they held their opponents to just 20 points and 336 yards of offense last season.  This line is simply way overinflated, so we’ll take the points with New England on Sunday night.  

9* Play PATRIOTS (+).

Detroit and Indianapolis have some major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 25 points and 349 yards per game.  On the road last season, the Lions gave up 20 points or more in six of their eight games.  That included games against woeful offenses like the Chargers, Rams, and Bears.  If the preseason was any indication, the Detroit defense may be even worse this season; they gave up 30 points in two of their four games.  Indianapolis’ defense was also poor last season as they gave up 25 points on 379 yards of offense per game.  The Colts held their opposition to less than 20 points in just four of their sixteen games in 2015.  Indianapolis also has cluster injuries in their secondary, so they’ll have to play unproven talent against what projects to be a potent Detroit offense in this game.  

The Lions and Colts will both possess potent offenses this season.  Detroit installed an up-tempo spread attack that really took off last season.  Their offense got better and better as the season went on, and in fact, the Lions scored 23 points or more in five of their last six games.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent in those games, and overall he finished the season by completing 67.2% of his passes with an excellent 32/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  The  Indianapolis offense will have a healthy Andrew Luck at quarterback, and his presence alone makes the Colts an efficient scoring team.  Luck threw 15 touchdown passes in just seven games in 2015 despite playing banged-up.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Colts on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Carolina and Denver will open the 2016 NFL season in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which the Broncos won 24-10.  That was a low-scoring defensive struggle, and we expect tonight’s game to play out in a similar way.  Carolina’s offensive line was manhandled by Denver’s defensive line in the Super Bowl, and with the same personnel returning, it’s hard to see much difference tonight.  The Panthers are a run first offense, and when they are successful running the ball, passing plays open up for quarterback Cam Newton.  But even if that happens to a degree, Newton will be throwing against a very good Denver secondary that stifled him in the Super Bowl.

Denver will be beginning a new chapter tonight with second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian under center.  Siemian has limited experience, and he’ll be facing a tough and physical Carolina front seven.  The Panthers have questions to answer in the secondary with a pair of rookies starting at the corners, but it’s unlikely that Siemian will be able to take advantage of that in his first start of the season.  Denver will also look to run the ball with great frequency tonight as they do not want to pin this game on Siemian’s arm.  The Bronocs know their defense will keep them in this game, so a conservative offensive game plan will be seen.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Panthers and Broncos on Thursday night.  

10* Play UNDER the total.

Carolina’s two playoff games couldn't have started any better as they jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead over Seattle, and a 17-0 first quarter lead over Arizona.  The Panthers didn't stop there as they extended their leads to 31-0 at the half over the Seahawks, and 24-7 at the half over the Cardinals.  The Panthers had good fortune in both of those games with their opponents turning the ball over which led to easy scores for Carolina.  However, this game should be much different against the stout Denver defense.  The Panthers’ offense did lead the NFL in first half scoring while averaging 17.8 points per game.  But Denver’s defense ranked 5th in the league in first half scoring; they allowed just 8.8 points per game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season, so Carolina’s offense will have to earn every point they get in this game, especially in the first half against a fresh Denver defense.            

Denver had to play two different playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.  The Broncos trailed for most of the first 45 minutes against Pittsburgh before pulling out the win in the fourth quarter.  Denver led wire-to-wire against New England as their defense simply dominated that game at the line of scrimmage.  The Broncos gave up just 10 first half points to the Steelers, and just 9 first half points to the Patriots.  Denver’s defensive profile showed that they started games off strong before wearing down late; nothing should change in this game.  Denver’s best chance to win this game is to play ball control, and let their defense do the rest.  That is especially true early on in this game, so we expect a conservative game plan by the Broncos.  Carolina’s defense ranked #2 in the NFL while giving up just 7.1 points per game in the first half.  Denver’s offense only averaged 10.9 points per game in the first half.  We expect this game to have limited offense early on, and while the second half should produce more points, a low-scoring first half will provide enough cushion for this game to stay Under the full game total.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Arizona is 14-3 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played back-to-back poor offensive games, but we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Arizona’s defense has also played above average football this season.  The Cardinals are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense is only giving up 18.7 points per game on the road this season.    

Carolina is obviously a very good team with a 16-1 record, but this a bad matchup for the Panthers.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 24 points to Seattle, 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Arizona’s defense is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take Arizona plus the points in the NFC Championship on Sunday night.      

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

Arizona’s offense is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 63.5% (367-578) of his passes for 5,020 yards with an excellent 38/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Palmer will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Arizona wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield just like Seattle did last week.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 236.7 yards per game thru the air on 8.0 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,998 yards this season with an excellent 36/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against an Arizona defense that has allowed 56 points in their last two games.  The Panthers have scored 24 points or more in every home game this season.  We expect a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New England played in Denver earlier this season, and the Patriots held a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter before inexplicably losing 30-24 in overtime.  New England’s offense was less than 100% healthy with multiple offensive injuries in that game, so it was even more impressive they held a two touchdown lead after three quarters of play.  The Patriots are now back at full strength on offense, and as we saw last week, New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous, especially with the Broncos’ best cover guy, Chris Harris, playing with an injured shoulder.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver beat Pittsburgh 23-16 last week, but the Broncos were fortunate.  The Steelers played without their top wide receiver and their top running back while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a bad throwing shoulder.  Despite that, Pittsburgh’s offense racked-up 396 yards of total offense in that game.  Denver’s offense was also facing a terrible Pittsburgh secondary that left receivers wide open, and despite that, QB Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 37 passes for 222 yards.  Overall, Manning is completing just 57.4% (93-162) of his passes with a horrendous 1/8 touchdown/interception ratio at home this season.  The Patriots are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New England is the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots in the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Seattle’s offense has been excellent over the second half of the season.  The Seahawks have scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 68.1% (329-483) of his passes for 4,024 yards with an excellent 34/8 touchdown/interception ratio.  Wilson is averaging a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  Wilson will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Seattle wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247.4 yards per game thru the air on 8.1 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,837 yards this season with an excellent 35/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against a Seattle defense that has only faced one explosive offense in their last six games.  The Panthers scored 27 points on the Seahawks in Seattle in an earlier season meeting, and their offense has been better at home where they’ve scored 24 points or more in every game this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Seattle is 9-2 over their last eleven games after opening the season with a 2-4 record in their first six games.  Aside from last week’s game in frigid Minnesota where the Seahawks scored just 10 points, Seattle’s offense has been fantastic this season.  They’ve scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Seattle’s defense is in terrific current form as they’ve allowed a total of 64 points in their last six games.  Granted, they only played one potent offense (Arizona) during that span, but allowing just 10.7 points per game during a stretch of games is still pretty impressive.  

Carolina obviously had an excellent regular season where they went 15-1, including a 27-23 win at Seattle back in Week 6.  But the Panthers actually trailed 23-14 before scoring two touchdowns over the final 3:55 of the game to pull out the win.  Carolina also went into that game off their bye, so they had two weeks to prepare for that game.  The Panthers have the same luxury for this game, but Seattle is playing much better football now than they were back then.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Seattle’s defense is allowing 7.8 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  Seattle is the better overall team, so we’ll take the Seahawks plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Kansas City romped in a 30-0 blowout win in Houston last week.  We cashed a Best Bet winner on the Chiefs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them once again this week.  Kansas City is a perfect 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games.  The Chiefs have won all eleven of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping 16.4 points per game.  Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense in my efficiency metrics.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while New England ranks #4.  However, the Patriots’ numbers were manufactured while they had a healthy team.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against New England’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128.4 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Patriots defense that ranked #10 in efficiency against the run this season.

New England comes into this game with a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball.  The Patriots’ offense has been a mess since losing Julian Edelman back in Week 10.  Edelman is slated to return for this game, but after missing two months of football, it would be surprising if he played like his old self.  Rob Gronkowski will be a game-time decision with knee and back issues, but even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited because of a particular pain killing injection he received this week.  Those two guys make the Patriots’ offense go, so quarterback Tom Brady may be hindered in this game, especially since the offensive line play was horrendous in their last few games.  Kansas City has a strong defense that matches-up well with New England; the Chiefs give up 16.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s defense is also in flux after Chandler Jones was hospitalized for a reaction to synthetic marijuana earlier this week.  This should be a low-scoring game that is decided by a field goal, so we’ll take the points with the Chiefs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (+).

Green Bay and Washington match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Packers come into this game off back-to-back poor offensive performances.  They scored just 8 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they scored just 13 points at home against Minnesota last week.  But Green Bay will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are facing a Washington defense that has given up 72 points in their last three games against bad offenses like the Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys.  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a fantastic 31/8 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Rodgers and the Packers offense will go up against a Redskins defense that ranks 19th against the pass in efficiency while giving up 30 touchdown passes this season.  Washington’s defense has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 385 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush over their last three games.  Green Bay will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

Washington’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 25.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins comes into this game in tremendous current form; he has completed 73% of his passes with an exceptional 11/0 touchdown/interception ratio over his last three games.  Overall, Cousins has thrown for 4,166 yards with a 29/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Green Bay defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road.  The Packers’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Cousins will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  Washington’s running game has also been terrific at home where they are averaging 130.7 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Packers give up 124 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road.  Both offenses will move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Redskins on Sunday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Kansas City is a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.  The Chiefs have won all ten of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping +15 points per game.  Kansas City already beat the Texans this season; the Chiefs won that game 27-20 in Houston way back in Week 1.  That game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates; Kansas City led 27-9 at the half, and they led by an average of +13.5 points per minute.  That was a dominating performance, and I expect a repeat performance in this game today.  Kansas City sweeps the board in the 22 advanced metrics I use in the NFL; that is extremely rare, especially in the playoffs.  The Chiefs hold a significant edge on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency; Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense while Houston ranks #21 on offense and #16 on defense.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while Houston ranks #20 which is the lowest of all 12 playoff teams this season.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against Houston’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Texans defense that was better against the pass (#7) than against the run (#13) in efficiency this season.

Houston needed to end the season on a 3-game winning streak just to make the playoffs.  The Texans beat three also-rans in the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars.  Houston played back-to-back perfect games in their last two as they beat Jacksonville and Tennessee by a combined score of 64-12.  The Texans led the Jaguars by an average of 11.1 points per minute, and they led the Titans by an average of 19.1 points per minute.  Those two performances set Houston up to regress sharply, even though this is a playoff game.  Prior to Houston’s last three wins, they also beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 SU slide and they beat a New Orleans team that was just 1-5 SU on the road going into that game.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Chiefs are only giving up 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so lay the points with the Chiefs in this Wild Card game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

Minnesota comes in off a big 49-17 home win over the Giants last Sunday night.  That was the Vikings’ second consecutive blowout win after they beat the Bears 38-17 the week before.  Off back-to-back dominating performances in which they led by double-digits for the majority of those games, we expect regression tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially on the road where they are only averaging 20.6 points per game.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to trade points, especially against a potent offense.  The Vikings only scored 13 points at home in the first meeting against the Packers, so it’s hard to see Minnesota having much offensive success in this game, especially since Green Bay only allows 16.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season. 

Green Bay returns home off an embarrassing 38-8 loss in Arizona last week.  We had a Best Bet against the Packers in that game, so that result wasn’t a shocker by any means.  We are willing to simply draw a line thru that game, and off such a poor performance, the Packers are primed for a peak performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense is averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers scored 30 points on the Vikings in Minnesota despite quarterback Aaron Rodgers completing just 47.1% (16-34) of his passes.  Green Bay is 5-2 at home this season with all five wins coming by 7 points or more; their average home win has come by 12.4 points per game.  We’ll back Green Bay in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New England still has a lot to play for as a win clinches the #1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Patriots come into this game off a 26-20 overtime loss last week in New York against the Jets.  New England was fortunate to even be in that game as they were absolutely dominated by the Jets from the opening kick.  Off such a poor performance and with something big on the line to play for, we expect a peak performance by New England in this game.  The Patriots already beat the Dolphins handily this season; they won 36-7 back in late-October.  New England put-up 437 yards of total offense, and that was back when Miami was playing good football.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  

Miami mailed this season in right after that loss in New England.  Since that game, the Dolphins are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS with four of the six losses coming by double digits.  Miami’s two wins during that span came against the Eagles who are a complete mess and just fired their head coach, and the Ravens who are also a mess with just a 5-10 record.  Miami has played a slew of also-rans in their recent games, and they’ve been noncompetitive.  The Dolphins are now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is 12-3 on the season with a +160 point differential.  To compare, Miami has a -89 point differential on the season, and New England’s defense has allowed just 5 points more (295-290) than Miami’s offense has scored this season.  The Patriots are the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Baltimore played their big game last week at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Ravens won 20-17 as 11-point underdogs.  That win was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses in which they lost by a combined score of 69-20.  Baltimore was in a good spot last week as they were playing their third straight home game while catching Pittsburgh off three consecutive big wins.  Off that big win, we expect major regression from the Ravens in this game, especially since they have to play on the road against an opponent that will be primed for a big effort.  Baltimore’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Ravens will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Cincinnati returns home off back-to-back road games with the last being an overtime loss in Denver.  The Bengals have played three of their last four games on the road, and their last home game was an embarrassing 33-20 loss to the Steelers.  Cincinnati has a lot to play for as a win and a Denver loss can secure the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs for the Bengals.  The good thing is that the Broncos play a late afternoon game, so Cincinnati will go all out for a win to give themselves a chance.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron has played well while replacing starter Andy Dalton.  In two starts, McCarron has completed 66.1% (37-56) of his passes for 395 yards.  The Bengals will run all over a Baltimore defense that has given up 442 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per rush over the last month.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a terrible 20-17 loss in Baltimore as 11-point favorites last week.  Off that poor effort, and with a lot to play for, we expect a big bounce back game from the Steelers.  Pittsburgh can only make the playoffs with a win and a Jets loss, so they will go all out here.  The Steelers dominated the Browns earlier this season; they won 30-9 in mid-November.  We expect a repeat of that game, especially since Pittsburgh will be primed for a big performance off a terrible showing last week.  Overall this season, the Steelers are averaging 26.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible; they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-12 record.  Rumors are swirling that their head coach and general manager will be fired after this game.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position, and with Johnny Manziel out with a concussion, Austin Davis will start their final game of the season.  Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games, and with the Steelers only giving up 20.5 points per game this season, it’s hard to see Cleveland’s offense scoring many points in this game.  Pittsburgh is simply the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Cincinnati bounced back strongly as expected last week when they won 24-14 in San Francisco.  That win was preceded by a home loss to Pittsburgh after quarterback Andy Dalton left with a broken thumb.  A.J. McCarron was good in relief against the Steelers, and last week he simply played mistake-free football while not being asked to do too much.  The challenge for McCarron this week increases significantly against the stout Denver defense.  The Bengals’ offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  Denver’s defense is terrific against the run and the pass, and they lead the NFL in sacks with 47 on the season.  McCarron has taken seven sacks in the two games he has played, so that will be an issue for the Cincinnati offense in this game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.            

Denver returns home after blowing a 27-10 lead in Pittsburgh last week.  The Broncos’ offense was shutout in the second half for the third consecutive week after opposing defenses made adjustments in defending quarterback Brock Osweiler.  Denver’s offense has been non-explosive all season; they are only averaging 22 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense has been even worse at home where they are scoring just 21 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is also one of the best in the league; the Bengals are holding opponents to just 17 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  With two young quarterbacks facing strong, veteran defenses, we expect a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Broncos on Monday night.     

10* Play UNDER the total.

New York comes into this game off a high-scoring close loss at home to undefeated Carolina.  The Giants made a furious rally to tie the game after trailing 35-7 in the second half; they ultimately fell short in a 38-35 loss.  That was a draining game, and it was also costly as New York will be without their best offensive player (Odell Beckham); he’s suspended for fighting last week.  New York will be a flat team already, and without Beckham, the Giants will have a difficult time moving the ball in this game.  New York will face a Minnesota defense that is only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play at home this season.  The Vikings’ defense has held ten of their fourteen opponents to 20 points or less this season.       

Minnesota is 9-5 after beating Chicago last week.  The Vikings’ offense will look to control this game on the ground with running back Adrian Peterson.  Minnesota shouldn’t have any trouble doing exactly that as the Giants’ defense is allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush this season.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially at home where they are only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to take advantage of a poor New York secondary.  The two offenses will struggle, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Giants and Vikings on Sunday night.   

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and the Packers have won four of their last five games.  Prior to that, Green Bay had lost three consecutive games after opening the season at 6-0.  So it’s apparent that the Packers are a streaky team, and that has coincided with the strength of their schedule.  Two of their last three losses have come on the road to playoff-bound teams Carolina and Denver; the Packers lost those two games by a combined score 66-39.  Their recent three wins have come against also-rans like the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders.  Green Bay will now face one of the best teams in the league, and the Packers do not match-up well against the Cardinals.  The Packers will have difficulty running the ball in this game, and that means Green Bay will be a one-dimensional passing attack.  Obviously that’s not a bad thing with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but he’ll be throwing on an Arizona secondary that ranks 7th in efficiency and 5th in passer rating allowed.        

Arizona is 12-2 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game against an elite opponent will have Arizona ready for a peak performance.  The Cardinals are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season.  That offense will face a Green Bay defense that allowed 66 points on the road to the Broncos and Panthers.  The Cardinals’ defense has been terrific at home where they are only allowing 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Arizona is simply the better team, and they are looking for a big statement win against an elite team, and this game provides them an opportunity for exactly that.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-11 record, including a 1-6 mark on the road.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position while flip-flopping between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel.  The latter will finish out the season with McCown out with injury.  Cleveland’s recent road games have been embarrassing; the Browns are winless in their last four away games.  Cleveland’s offense has scored 13 points or less in every one of those games while losing by a combined score of 115-38.  The Browns led 7-0 in Seattle last week after scoring on their opening drive; they proceeded to get out-scored 30-6 the rest of the game.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns’ defense has been atrocious on the road where they are giving up 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.       

Kansas City is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  The Chiefs have won six of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 17.5 points per game.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a terrific match-up here against Cleveland’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 141.4 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.  That strong rushing attack will face a horrendous Browns rush defense that ranks 28th in efficiency while giving up 139.7 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Kansas City’s defense has also been terrific at home where they are holding opponents to just 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chiefs in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

New England is 12-2 SU and 7-5 ATS this season.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately for them, key offensive components are out because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Danny Amendola will miss this game in New York.  The Patriots’ defense will also be missing two important pieces in their secondary with Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung out for this game.  New England struggled at home against the Jets in the first meeting; they trailed 20-16 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-23.  The Patriots gave up 25 first downs to New York, and they were out-yarded 372-353 in that game.  In the first meeting, Edelman and Amendola caught 13 passes on 18 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so the Jets’ defense gets an easier matchup this time around.

New York is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Jets come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence right now.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since the Patriots are giving up 121 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  The Jets average 128.4 yards on the ground per game on 4.2 yards per rush at home, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  In the first meeting, the Jets out-rushed the Patriots 89-16, and that was on the road.  New York’s defense is in excellent current form as they’ve given up a total of 64 points in their last four games.  Overall, the Jets are only giving up 18.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play JETS (+).

San Diego comes into this game off an easy 30-14 home win over Miami last Sunday.  Wins have been few and far between for the Chargers this season, but the team has been competitive as seven of their ten losses have come by single digits.  San Diego lost to Oakland by 8 points (37-29) back in Week 7; the Chargers were 3.5-point home favorites in that game.  Now in the rematch, San Diego is getting 6 points which creates value considering the Chargers have been favored over the Raiders the last six times they’ve played.  Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a pretty good season considering the offense hasn’t been fully healthy.  Overall, Rivers has thrown for 4,287 yards while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a 26/12 touchdown/interception ratio.           

Oakland lost 30-20 at home to Green Bay in their last game.  The Raiders have been in poor current form in the second half of the season.  Oakland is just 2-5 SU over their last seven games with those two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  The Raiders were fortunate to beat Denver eleven days ago; Oakland only had 8 first downs on 126 yards of total offense in that game.  The Raiders’ offense has put-up some big numbers in games this season, but overall, Oakland is only averaging 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Raiders’ defense has been poor all season; they are giving up 28 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home.  These two teams are equal across the board, so we’ll take San Diego plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Detroit and New Orleans match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Lions come into this game off a poor offensive performance in St. Louis last week; they only scored 14 points on 331 yards of total offense.  But Detroit will bounce back with a much better performance tonight, especially since they are facing a New Orleans defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has played well since their bye back in Week 9; he has a terrific 11/2 touchdown/interception ratio in his last five games.  Stafford and the Lions offense will go up against a Saints defense that has allowed 36 touchdown passes this season; the most in the league.  New Orleans has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 367 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per rush over their last three games.  Detroit will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

New Orleans’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 32.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 71.5% of his passes while averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt at home.  Overall, Brees has thrown for 3,794 yards with a 25/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Detroit defense that is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Lions’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Brees will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Saints on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season.  The Cardinals’ offense is averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona has taken their offense on the road as well; the Cardinals are averaging 31.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 64.5% (292-453) of his passes for 4,003 yards with a terrific 31/9 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over an Eagles defense that has given up 19 touchdown passes in their last six games. 

Philadelphia’s offense is starting to come around with Sam Bradford under center.  The Eagles have picked up the pace in recent games; they’ve scored 58 points in their last two games.  The Eagles have scored 23 points or more in seven games this season.  Arizona’s defense has faced three pedestrian offenses that can only run the football in their last three games; the Cardinals held the 49ers to 13 points, the Rams to 3 points, and the Vikings to 20 points last week.  Now Arizona will face an up-tempo offense on the road which makes them vulnerable.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cardinals and Eagles on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati comes into this game off a 33-20 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.  We played against the Bengals in that game, so that loss is easy to excuse.  Cincinnati was in a terrible situational spot, and after losing quarterback Andy Dalton to a broken thumb in the first quarter, the game just snowballed out of control.  Off that defeat, the Bengals are in a nice bounce back spot against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron played well despite being thrown into the fire.  McCarron had to throw the ball a lot (32 pass attempts) because Cincinnati trailed for every minute of the game.  He was decent while completing 22 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns.  This game will play out differently as the Bengals will lean heavily on their running game which will take the pressure off McCarron.  Cincinnati will run all over a San Francisco defense that ranks 30th in rush defense efficiency; the 49ers gave up 223 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per rush to the Browns last week.

San Francisco returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The 49ers are just 4-9 on the season with their lone win against a winning team coming way back in Week 1 against the Vikings.  San Francisco’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 14.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 21.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  In five games with quarterback Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco has scored 20 points or less in every game while only averaging 14.6 points per game.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Denver never should have lost at home to the Raiders last week.  The Broncos held Oakland to just 8 first downs and 126 yards of total offense; Denver lead 12-0 at the half as well.  The Broncos held a 36-24 time of possession edge, but two lost fumbles and an 0-3 in the red zone did them in.  We are willing to forgive that result as Denver was in a natural letdown spot in that game.  Now on the road in Pittsburgh, the Broncos are severely undervalued despite being in a prime bounce back spot.  The pointspread on this game makes little sense; my power ratings only make the Steelers a 4-point favorite.  Denver’s defense matches-up extremely well with the Pittsburgh offense.  The Broncos have the #3 rush defense in efficiency, so the Steelers will not be able to run the ball with consistency in this game.  That will make them one-dimensional to the pass against a Denver secondary that ranks #1 in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Denver’s defense is only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh was in an excellent spot last week in Cincinnati, and we won a Best Bet selection on the Steelers in their easy 33-20 win.  However, we are going against Pittsburgh this week as they are now in a terrible situational spot.  The Steelers are set to regress after back-to-back monster games in which they led by double digits for the majority of the games.  Pittsburgh is also taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver after QB Ben Roethlisberger had the luxury of playing poor defenses like the 49ers, Colts, Raiders, and Browns.  Pittsburgh’s defense is vulnerable as they are giving up 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play this season.  Denver’s offense has actually played better on the road where they are averaging 22.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Denver is in a terrific bounce back spot, and they are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time.  We’ll take the points with the Broncos in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Atlanta has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Falcons opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record, and they were 6-1 after their first seven games.  But Atlanta has gone winless since, and they come into this game riding a 6-game losing streak.  The Falcons’ offense bottomed out last week in Carolina when they got shutout; Atlanta has scored 21 points or less in eight consecutive games.  However, this game against Jacksonville provides the Atlanta offense with a fantastic opportunity to break out in a major way.  Despite their scoring struggles, Atlanta is still averaging a respectable 5.7 yards per play this season.  QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,705 yards with 17 touchdown passes on the season.  Ryan gets an ideal matchup in this game as the Jaguars rank 27th in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 27.5 points per game versus offenses that only average 22.7 points per game.   

Jacksonville has an exciting, young and explosive offense that should be one of the best in the NFL in the next couple of years.  The Jaguars are averaging 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Over their last three games, Jacksonville has scored 115 points.  The Jaguars have scored 22 points or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  Quarterback Blake Bortles is have a terrific season; he has thrown for 3,524 yards with a 30/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games.  Bortles and the Jacksonville offense will face a terrible Atlanta defense that is allowing 23.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road this season.  The Falcons rank 24th in pass defense efficiency, and they are dead last in the league in sacks.  That combination will allow Bortles to throw the ball all over an Atlanta secondary that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Falcons and Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and we expect them to extend that to four consecutive wins.  The Jets will own a major edge at the line of scrimmage, and that will be the deciding factor in this game.  New York running back Chris Ivory is in excellent form, averaging 4.7 yards per rush in his last five games.  Ivory will face a Dallas defense that gave up 195 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush last week in Green Bay.  Overall, the Cowboys are giving up 130 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush at home this season.  Dallas ranks 26th in rush defense efficiency, so New York will lean heavily on Ivory in this game.            

Dallas returns home off a 28-7 loss in Green Bay last week.  The Cowboys are now playing on a short week for the second straight time; they played the Packers off a Monday night game.  This is a poor situational and scheduling spot for Dallas, and the bad matchup just makes things more difficult.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as they are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Cowboys have scored just 40 total points in their last three games.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Saturday night.           

9* Play JETS (-).

Tampa Bay and St. Louis haven’t been lighting-up opponents this season, but tonight’s matchup gives both teams a nice opportunity to breakout offensively.  The Bucs will lean heavily on their running game, especially since the Rams’ run defense has been torched over the last few weeks.  St. Louis has allowed 375 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush in their last three games with two of those games coming against teams that have had little success running the ball this season; the Lions and Cardinals.  Tampa Bay features running back Doug Martin who only had 11 carries last week because the Bucs trailed New Orleans by double digits for the majority of the game.  Martin will carry the workload in this game; he ranks second in the NFL with 1,214 rushing yards on the season.  Tampa Bay has also played better offense on the road where they are averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.

St. Louis’ offense has played well below average in the majority of their games, and that led to a new offensive coordinator.  Rob Boras called his first game last week, and the Rams responded with a win while scoring 21 points.  St. Louis will have a tough time running on a stout Tampa Bay rush defense that only allows 94.1 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush.  That means we expect quarterback Case Keenum to throw the ball a lot in this game, especially since the Bucs have been vulnerable to passing attacks all season.  Tampa Bay has allowed 20 points or more in three of their last four road games, so the Rams’ offense will have success since they’ve scored 21 points or more in four home games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Rams in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game off a pair of terrible offensive games; two weeks ago they only scored 14 points in Washington, and last week they only scored 20 points at home against the Jets.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York is averaging 25.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Giants will face a poor Miami defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning, and he will face a Miami secondary that has given up 24 passing touchdowns this season while allowing opposing quarterbacks a 16/5 touchdown/interception ratio over their last seven games.

Miami’s offense has also played well below average in their last couple of games, especially at home.  The Dolphins have scored just 29 total points in their last two home games, but there are reasons to expect a much better offensive output in tonight’s game against New York.  The Giants’ defense has given up 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York’s defense is allowing 24.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Giants have been worse on the road where they are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Dolphins in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

New England comes into this game off back-to-back losses after opening the season with ten consecutive wins.  The Patriots should have won in Denver two weeks ago, but they blew a 21-7 fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime.  Last week, New England played a sloppy game after going up 14-0; they gave up three defensive and special teams touchdowns combined.  Off such a poor performance, the Patriots are primed for a peak performance tonight.  It’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, but head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and Belichick also knows Houston head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Brian Hoyer extremely well as both were with the Patriots for multiple seasons. 

Houston’s 4-game winning streak was snapped last week in Buffalo.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bills in that game, and we’ll fade the Texans once again in this game.  Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The four wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Dallas was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Washington last Monday night.  The Cowboys were off an embarrassing 33-14 home loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving day, and they were catching the Redskins in a flat spot off a win as a home underdog.  The Cowboys were also undervalued after losing quarterback Tony Romo in their previous game.  Dallas had extra time to prepare Matt Cassel, and he simply managed the game while leading the Cowboys to a 19-16 win.  Dallas had to hit the road on a short week, so the Cowboys are now the team in the poor scheduling spot.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as the Green Bay defense is only giving up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season.

Green Bay returns home off a miraculous win in Detroit last Thursday night.  The Packers won on a 61-yard Hail Mary after the game was extended for one play after a defensive penalty.  Green Bay was given a boost by that win, and since they have lost two consecutive home games, we expect the Packers to come with a peak performance in this game.  The Packers have a monumental edge at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers versus Matt Cassel in this game.  Rodgers has quietly amassed a 25/6 touchdown/interception ratio this season, and he will face a middling Dallas secondary that hasn’t faced a potent passing offense since October.  In those games, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 83 total points to Drew Brees, Eli manning, and Tom Brady.  Green Bay is in a terrific spot and catching Dallas at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Packers in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

Pittsburgh is 3-1 over their last four games after going 2-3 in their previous five games.  Aside from the games quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed, the Steelers’ offense has been fantastic this season; they’ve scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played just two road games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  They scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

Cincinnati is in a poor situational spot for this game against Pittsburgh.  The Bengals come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  Cincinnati beat St. Louis 31-7 two weeks ago, and last week the Bengals beat the Browns 37-3.  Cincinnati led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Bengals’ defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  Against the two good offenses they faced, Cincinnati gave up 34 points to Arizona and 24 points to Seattle.  Their secondary gave up 498 passing yards in those games, and that was with a healthy unit.  They come into this game with cluster injuries, so Roethlisberger will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.  Pittsburgh is playing excellent football right now, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Pittsburgh’s offense has been excellent with Ben Roethlisberger this season.  The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played two road games with Roethlisberger under center; they scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.  Roethlisberger will face a depleted Cincinnati secondary that will be playing a pair of rookies because of injury.  In just eight games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 65.9% (201-305) of his passes for 2,702 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. 

Cincinnati also has a strong offense that is averaging 27.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Bengals have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247 yards per game thru the air on 7.9 yards per pass attempt.  Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 3,191 yards this season while only throwing six interceptions on 381 pass attempts.  Cincinnati’s offense will score their share of points against a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play on the road this season.  The Bengals have scored 24 points or more in ten of their twelve games while the Steelers have scored 30 points or more in five of the seven games that Roethlisberger has played from start to finish.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Bengals on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Dallas has had a very disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-8 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Tony Romo (collarbone) for the rest of the season.  Dallas is used to playing without Romo this year; he has missed seven of eleven games.  The Cowboys’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Washington gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Cassel will take over at quarterback, and he will rely on running back Darren McFadden to carry the offensive workload in this game.  McFadden should produce as Washington’s rush defense ranks 21st in efficiency while giving up 126.6 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.       

Washington has been up and down this season.  The Redskins have alternated wins and losses in their last six games, and in fact, they’ve alternated wins and losses in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Redskins won their last game, so if their trend holds up, a poor effort resulting in a loss will play out tonight, especially since Washington has yet to win back-to-back games this season.  The Redskins have been home underdogs in five of their six home games, but now they are laying a field goal into a divisional opponent.  In the one game in which they were favored at home, Washington trailed Tampa Bay 24-0 before rallying back for a 31-30 win.  The Cowboys’ defense is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Washington has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Dallas plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play COWBOYS (+).

Indianapolis’ offense is starting to come around with Matt Hasselbeck under center.  The Colts have picked up the pace as they are now playing with a much quicker tempo.  The Colts have scored 21 points or more in seven consecutive games, and they are averaging 25.5 points per game over their last four.  We fully expect another strong offensive performance from the Indianapolis offense since the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 80 points in their last three games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing their opponents to average 6.0 yards per play this season.  That poor defensive efficiency plays right into the hands of what the Colts’ offense is doing now with Hasselbeck at quarterback.

Pittsburgh’s offense is terrific when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.  Their seasonal numbers are skewed from the games he missed, but Pittsburgh is still playing above average football.  The Steelers’ offense is averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 22.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In just seven games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 66.5% (177-266) of his passes for 2,343 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over a Colts defense that is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Steelers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina comes into this game as the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL.  The Panthers have a perfect 11-0 record, including a win over New Orleans back in Week 3.  Carolina only won that game 27-22 on their home field despite Luke McCown playing quarterback for the injured Drew Brees.  The Panthers’ defense was shredded by a backup quarterback as McCown completed 81.6% (31-38) of his passes for 310 yards.  If McCown did that to the Panthers in Carolina, then Brees has some serious potential to carve up Carolina’s secondary at home on a fast track inside a dome.  The Panthers have won their last three games by a combined score of 104-40 which sets them up to regress sharply in this game.  Carolina’s offense is only averaging 4.7 yards per play on the road this season which is well below their overall average of 5.4 yards per play.

The Saints return home off back-to-back road losses in Washington and Houston.  New Orleans has played much better football at home where they are 3-2 this season with one of those losses coming in overtime.  The setup for this game couldn’t be any better for New Orleans.  The Saints will bring their peak effort in this game, and their potent home offense will lead the way.  New Orleans is averaging 31.2 points per game on 435.2 yards of offense at home this season.  The Saints average 6.3 yards per play inside the dome, so Carolina’s defense will have their worst game of the season.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Carolina, and since New Orleans is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Saints in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play SAINTS (+).

The New York Jets and the New York Giants will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The teams will both face stout rush defenses that do not give up much on the ground, so we expect the ball to be in the air throughout this game.  The Jets’ offense broke out last week as they scored 38 points on 411 yards of total offense.  We expect their scoring ways to continue against a Giants defense that has given up 20 points or more in nine of their eleven games this season.  Overall, the Jets are averaging 24.7 points per game this season while scoring 20 points or more in four of their five road games.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will face one of the worst secondaries in the league as the Giants rank 25th in efficiency while allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is allowing 24.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.

New York’s other team, the Giants, come in off their second worst offensive game of the season when they only scored 14 points in Washington last week.  That was just the second time this season in which the Giants failed to score at least 20 points in a game.  New York went into that game off a bye, and they were simply out of rhythm.  The Giants’ offensive flow will return this week, and we’ll see the team that averaged 33.5 points per game in the four weeks prior to their bye.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning who is averaging 309.9 yards per game on 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Manning will face a depleted Jets secondary that will be missing Darrelle Revis due to a concussion.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Jets and Giants on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Texans have won three of those four games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by 10.8 points per game.  Their defense held all four opponents to just 35 total points with three teams scoring just 6 points each.  However, Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  So while the four wins look good on the scoreboard, Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans are set to regress in this game, especially since their offense only averages 21 points per game on 4.8 yards per play on the road this season.

Buffalo returns home off three consecutive road games.  This will be just their third home game since October 18th, and off back-to-back losses, we expect a peak performance by Buffalo.  The Bills have three home losses this season, but two of those losses came to the Patriots and Bengals who are a combined 19-3 on the season.  All three of the home defeats came against teams with excellent passing offenses, but Buffalo will face a Texans’ passing offense that is only averaging 5.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  Overall, the Bills have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Buffalo is averaging 24.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play at home this season.  In their two home wins against teams on their level, the Bills held the Colts to just 14 points and the Dolphins to just 17 points.  Buffalo is set for a peak performance while Houston is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (-).

Baltimore has had a very disappointing season; the Ravens come into this game with a 3-7 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and running back Justin Forsett (broken arm) for the rest of the season.  The Ravens’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Cleveland gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Schaub will take over at quarterback, but he will rely on running back Buck Allen to carry the offensive workload in this game.  Allen was very good in relief of Forsett last week when he totaled 115 yards on the ground and thru the air against a pretty good St. Louis defense.  Allen should produce once again tonight as the Brown’s rush defense ranks 29th in efficiency while giving up 138.8 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.       

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season, especially at the quarterback position.  Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel has been in and out, and it was Manziel slated to finish the rest of the season.  However, he recently got in trouble off the field, so McCown will be the quarterback tonight.  In the first meeting of the season, Cleveland won 33-30 in Baltimore as 6-point road underdogs.  The Ravens’ defense was a mess back then, and McCown took advantage.  However, the Ravens are in much better form now as they’ve held their last two opponents to just 35 total points.  Baltimore allowed just 47.9% (34-71) completions for 324 yards on 4.6 yards per pass attempt in this games.  The Ravens’ run defense was also stout while holding those opponents to just 128 yards on 2.8 yards per rush.  Cleveland has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play RAVENS (+).

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain that way after tonight’s game.  The Patriots are 10-0 with nine of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  While it’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver won 17-15 in Chicago last week, but they needed to stop a 2-point conversion to prevent overtime.  The buzz is all about quarterback Brock Osweiler in his performance replacing Peyton Manning.  While he was good in his first start, he was facing a terrible Chicago defense.  He naturally figures to regress in his second start, especially since he’ll be facing an underrated New England defense.  The Patriots are only giving up 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they will be ready for a big effort, especially their offense.  The Steelers’ offense is terrific when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.  Their seasonal numbers are skewed from the games he missed, but Pittsburgh is still playing above average football.  The Steelers’ offense is averaging 23.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In just six games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 66.8% (141-211) of his passes for 1,887 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have similar success in this game because the way to beat the Seattle defense is  by throwing the ball deep.

Seattle’s offense is starting to come around as they’ve scored 61 points in their last two games.  The Seahawks had scored 26 points or less over their previous seven games while only averaging 19.4 points per game during that stretch.  With this being their third consecutive home game, we fully expect another strong offensive performance from the Seattle offense.  The Pittsburgh defense is extremely vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and they’ll face one of the best runners in the league in Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have faced four pocket quarterbacks in their four road games this season, and three of those teams still scored 20, 23, and 28 points.  Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Seahawks on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami got a nice boost after head coach Joe Philbin got fired.  The Dolphins won their first two games under interim coach Dan Campbell, but since those initial wins, the team has been terrible.  Miami is just 1-3 over their last four games with their lone win being very fortunate; they beat the Eagles 20-19 despite getting out-yarded 436-289 while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 20.5 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.1 points per game.  The Dolphins have been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s defense is in shambles with their top lineman, Cameron Wake, on injured reserve.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,429 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 11/4 touchdown/interception ratio over the last five games.     

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win; they’ve lost four of their last five games.  The Jets will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they manhandled the Dolphins in London earlier this season.  New York won that game 27-14 while out-yarding Miami 425-226.  The Jets dominated the line of scrimmage while running for 207 yards with Chris Ivory leading the way with 166 yards on 29 carries.  The Jets will repeat that performance in this game, especially since Miami is giving up 142.6 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush on the road this season.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills have won two of their last three games with their loss coming by just 7 points at New England last Monday night.  Buffalo is now in a good bounce back spot after facing one of the best teams in the league.  The Bills are getting just a couple of points less in this game than they got against the Patriots, and they are facing a team that is on their level.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Overall, the Bills have been excellent against the run while holding opponents to just 96.2 yards per game on the ground.  Their ability to stop the run will be a major factor in this game.  

Kansas City is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Chiefs have won all four of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 22.8 points per game.  However, Kansas City has been fortunate in those games.  The Chiefs beat Pittsburgh with Landry Jones at quarterback, they beat a 1-6 Detroit team, they beat Denver when Peyton Manning got hurt, and last week they beat a 2-7 San Diego team.  So while the four wins were all impressive on the scoreboard, Kansas City’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Chiefs are set to regress in this game, especially since they will be facing a strong Buffalo defense.  Kansas City needs to run the ball to have success, but they will have a difficult time running with consistency against the Bills.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Chicago is playing much better football now after opening the season at 0-3.  The Bears are 4-3 SU and a terrific 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.  Their three recent losses could have been wins as well; they lost each of those games by 3 points or less.  The Bears are 3-1 on the road during their recent stretch while averaging 27.8 points per game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Green Bay secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Packers have allowed 1,127 passing yards in their last four games despite playing weak passing offenses like the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions.  On a short week, the Packers have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Green Bay’s defense in this game.

Green Bay has played bad football in the month of November.  The Packers are just 1-3 this month with their lone win coming last week in Minnesota.  They won that game despite getting out-yarded 342-320.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 25 of his 37 passes for 296 yards which shows how bad the Packers’ defense has played as noted above.  Overall, the Packers’ defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play.  The first meeting in Chicago resulted in an 8-point Green Bay win, but that was the season opener when the Bears were looking for an identity under new head coach John Fox.  The Bears are playing much better now while Green Bay is playing worse, so we’ll take the Bears plus the points on Thursday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Chicago is 3-1 on the road during their recent stretch while averaging 27.8 points per game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Green Bay secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Packers have allowed 1,127 passing yards in their last four games.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 25 of his 37 passes for 296 yards last week which shows how bad the Packers’ defense has played.  Overall, the Packers’ defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play.  On a short week, the Packers have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Green Bay’s defense in this game.

Green Bay also has a strong offense that is averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers have a much improved running game that is averaging 110 yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Green Bay’s ability to run the ball has allowed QB Aaron Rodgers to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Rodgers is completing 61.7% of his passes while throwing for 7.2 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 23/3 touchdown/interception ratio.  The Bears are giving up 25.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  We expect both offenses to go up and down the field in a high-scoring game between the Bears and Packers on Thursday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS.  The Panthers have been impressive on both sides of the ball this season, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of opponents.  Carolina’s offense has faced a collection of defenses that are allowing 24.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Despite that, the Panthers are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is only giving up 19.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  However, they’ve put those numbers up against a group of opposing offenses that only average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In their lone road game against a good opponent, Carolina gave up 23 points to the Seahawks in a game they trailed 20-7 at one point before coming back to win with just 32 seconds left to play.      

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ three wins have come with Romo under center; they went 0-7 in the games Romo missed.  He returned for last week’s game in Miami, and Dallas cruised to an easy 24-14 win.  The Cowboys’ formula for success is to lean on their running game behind their strong offensive line; their ability to run the ball means they can control the clock and keep Carolina’s offense off the field.  Dallas simply matches-up extremely well with Carolina, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Thursday afternoon. 

10* Play COWBOYS.

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills come into tonight’s game off back-to-back division wins over the Dolphins and Jets, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence heading into New England.  Buffalo hosted the Patriots back in Week 2, and heavy money came in on the Bills and they went from small underdogs to 2-point favorites.  The result was ugly; Buffalo lost 40-32 in a game that was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  The Bills trailed 37-13 going into the fourth quarter.  Now the Bills are getting a full touchdown in the rematch, and that simply creates value on the underdog.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 9-0 SU but just 5-4 ATS.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately, New England will be without two important players tonight because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Dion Lewis both got hurt last week, and when they went out, we saw New England’s offense struggle to move the football.  In the first meeting against Buffalo, Edelman and Lewis caught 17 passes on 28 targets for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so Buffalo’s defense will surely game plan to contain him tonight.  We expect the second meeting to be much closer than the first, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play BILLS (+).

Cincinnati comes into this game off their first loss of the season.  The Bengals haven’t had much time to sulk about it since they are playing on the road on a short week.  Cincinnati’s offense was terrible last week as they only scored 6 points on their home field.  Things won’t be any easier in this game as they’ll be facing a terrific Arizona defense that is off a sub-par performance.  Overall, Arizona is allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals’ defense has been even better at home where they are holding opponents to just 17 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.          

Arizona is 7-2 after winning in Seattle last week.  The Cardinals’ offense has been outstanding this season, but they’ve faced a weak slate of defenses that are allowing 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona will be taking a major step-up in defensive class against the strong Cincinnati defense.  The Bengals are only allowing 16.9 points per game against offenses that average 23 points per game.  Cincinnati has carried their defense on the road where they are only giving up 17 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The two defenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Cardinals on Sunday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 2-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ two wins came in their first two games when Romo played; they are simply a much different team with him under center.  He returns for this game, and his presence will give Dallas a major boost and allow them to snap their 7-game losing streak.  The Cowboys have a significant edge on the line of scrimmage, and their ability to run the ball means they won’t have to rely on Romo’s arm to win.  Dallas will face a weak Miami defensive line that has been gashed on the ground this season; the Dolphins allow 135.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Miami will also be without their top lineman, Cameron Wake, which just makes things even worse.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,202 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 9/2 touchdown/interception ratio over the last four games.     

Miami comes into this game off a fortunate 20-19 win in Philadelphia last week.  The Dolphins were out-yarded 436-289 in that game while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  That game was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses which showed just how bad this Miami team can be.  Off the gift win, Miami will face a desperate Dallas team that will bring their best effort, especially since their quarterback is returning.  The Cowboys’ defense has been terrific on the road this season; they are giving up just 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.5 points per game.  We expect a peak performance by Dallas, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win, so we know they’ll bring their best effort.  The Jets have lost three of their last four games, but two of the losses were close and the other is easily excusable.  New York lost at New England and out in Oakland the following week when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got hurt on the opening possession.  Their most recent loss came on a Thursday night when they couldn’t score from the 5-yard line with time winding down.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they have extra rest while facing a Texans team on short rest.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since Houston gives up 118 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Jets average 117 yards on the ground per game on 4.0 yards per rush, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  

Houston comes into this game off an outright win as 10-point underdogs in Cincinnati on Monday night.  The Texans went into that game off their bye, and they handed the Bengals their first loss of the season, and did so with their backup quarterback.  T.J. Yates came in when Brian Hoyer left with a concussion, and he played mistake-free football.  But in the starting role this week, Yates doesn’t figure to play as well, especially against a stout New York defense.  The Jets are only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York is the better team in a focused spot while catching Houston at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).

Oakland and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Raiders were terrible on offense last week as they only scored 14 points at home against Minnesota.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Oakland’s offense is primed for a bounce back scoring performance indoors on a fast track in Detroit.  Quarterback Derek Carr will face one of the worst secondaries in the league, and he has the weapons to exploit the Lions.  Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.1% of their passes on 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Detroit’s defense is allowing 32 points per game on 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Detroit is 2-7 on the season, but the Lions have faced a tough schedule, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions have faced a collection of defenses that are only allowing 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Detroit is taking a monumental step-down in class as the Oakland defense is giving up 26.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Detroit will be throwing the ball a lot, especially against an Oakland secondary that has given up 2 or more touchdown passes in seven of their nine games, and 250 passing yards or more in eight of their nine games this season.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Houston and Cincinnati match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Texans will have success running the ball on a vulnerable Cincinnati run defense.  Houston does not have good seasonal statistics, but they’ve played against a good slate of defenses this season.  The Texans will be able to run the ball on the Bengals who are allowing 4.9 yards per rush while being ranked 17th in the NFL in rush defense efficiency.  Houston also comes into this game well rested off their bye week, so we can also expect some aggressiveness in throwing the ball downfield.  Houston’s ability to run the ball will open up passing plays downfield for quarterback Brian Hoyer who is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a solid 13/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.

Cincinnati’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Bengals are averaging 29.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati is playing an up-tempo passing style offense while throwing the ball on the majority of their plays.  Quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 2,226 yards on 8.6 yards per pass attempt with an 18/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Houston defense that is giving up 34 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Texans’ secondary is allowing 246.7 passing yards per game on 7.2 yards per pass attempt on the road as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Texans and Bengals on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Arizona and Seattle both come into this game off their bye week, so we can expect both teams to bring their best effort.  The Cardinals have the better record as they are 6-2 on the season compared to Seattle’s 4-4 mark.  That alone makes the Cardinals an attractive underdog, but this is not a good match-up for them.  Arizona’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but the Cardinals have faced a slew of poor defensive teams.  In fact, those defenses are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play as a group.  The Cardinals will face a Seattle defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  At home, the Seahawks are giving up just 12.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is clearly facing the best defense they’ve seen all season.

Seattle has played much better football than their record indicates.  The Seahawks have lost two games in overtime, and another loss came by just 4 points.  Their lone bad game this season came in Green Bay, but that was excusable as the Packers were playing with legitimate revenge.  Overall, Seattle’s offense has struggled, but they get a favorable match-up against the Arizona defense.  The Cardinals have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks, and they will face one of the best running quarterbacks in the league tonight.  Russell Wilson was terrific in two games against the Cardinals last season; he completed 69.8% (37-53) of his passes for 550 yards on a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is rested and ready for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

New England comes into New York with a perfect 8-0 record, and once again this season, the Patriots are led by their potent offense.  The Patriots are averaging 34.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Incredibly, New England’s offense has been even better on the road where they are averaging 34.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  The Patriots have an excellent passing game that is averaging 333 yards per game on 8.1 yards per pass attempt on the road.  Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has thrown for 2,709 yards on 8.3 yards per pass attempt with a terrific 22/2 touchdown/interception ratio.  New England’s offense will score a slew of points against a New York defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.

New York’s offense has also been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in eight of their nine games.  Overall, New York is averaging 27.4 points per game versus opponents that only allow 24.8 points per game.  New York will face a New England defense that will be playing on the road for the first time in close to a month.  The Patriots gave up 27 points in Indianapolis and 32 points in Buffalo.  Their defense faced two healthy quarterbacks in those games and they got torched; New England only allowed 6 points in Dallas because Brandon Weeden was at quarterback.  The Patriots’ defense will face the best quarterback they’ve seen all season; Eli Manning has thrown for 2,339 yards with an 19/6 touchdown/interception ratio on the year.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Giants on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Chicago snapped their 2-game losing streak with a 22-19 win over the Chargers in San Diego last Monday night.  The Bears out-scored the Chargers 15-3 in the fourth quarter after only scoring 7 total points in the first three quarters.  That was a terrible offensive showing by Chicago considering the San Diego defense had allowed 24 points or more in their eight other games this season.  Now the Bears are on the road once again and playing on a short week while taking a major step-up in defensive class against St. Louis.  Chicago’s offense has been terrible on the road where they are only averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Bears have a poor running game (96.2 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush) away from home, and that makes them a one-dimensional passing offense.  That plays right into the hands of the Rams defense.

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 4-4 on the year after losing in overtime to the Vikings last Sunday.  St. Louis is 3-1 at home this season, and their last two home wins have come by a combined score of 51-12.  The Rams have an excellent defense that is tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks while their secondary has given up just 5 passing touchdowns all season.  At home, St. Louis is only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Overall, the Rams are allowing just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Chicago is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAMS (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off a tough 34-28 home loss in overtime to the Titans last Sunday.  That game was preceded by three consecutive wins that took a lot out of the Saints.  New Orleans beat previously unbeaten Atlanta 31-21 as home underdogs on a Thursday night, then they went to Indianapolis and won 27-21 as 5.5-point road underdogs, and they capped off their third straight win in a high-scoring 52-49 victory over the New York Giants.  Now they must take to the road and play in the outdoor elements on a natural grass field for the first time in a month.  New Orleans lost a road game 39-17 in Philadelphia under these same conditions earlier this season.  The Saints’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL; they are giving up 29.8 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, New Orleans is allowing 29.5 points per game on 6.9 yards per play. 

Washington comes into this game off a 27-10 blowout loss in New England.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Redskins after coming back from a 24-0 deficit to beat Tampa Bay 31-30 and having a bye the following week.  Washington returns home where they’ve played good football this season.  The Redskins are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  At home, Washington is averaging 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play which is better than the 19.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play that they average overall.  The Redskins’ offense will have one of their best games of the season.  They are fully healthy now, and they are playing an awful New Orleans defense.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game at home, so the Saints offense has their work cut out for them.  We expect a peak performance by Washington, so we’ll back the Redskins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Chicago and San Diego will have the same game plan for tonight, and it will lead to a lot of points scored.  The Bears and Chargers both have strong passing offenses, so both teams will throw the ball a lot in this game and that means we’ll see a high-scoring game.  Chicago will be without running back Matt Forte, so that means this game will squarely fall on the arm of quarterback Jay Cutler.  He has been surprisingly good this season while throwing for 1,442 yards on 7.0 yards per pass attempt with an 8/4 touchdown/interception ratio.  Cutler will face a poor San Diego secondary that is allowing 260.2 passing yards per game on a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt at home this season. 

San Diego’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Chargers are averaging 28 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  San Diego plays an up-tempo style while throwing the ball on the majority of their plays.  Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for 300 yards or more in five straight games, and that trend will continue tonight against a horrendous Chicago pass defense.  The Bears are giving up 26.7 points per game on 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Chicago’s secondary has allowed 16 passing touchdowns while only grabbing 4 interceptions this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bears and Chargers on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia comes into this game off their bye, and since they lost their last game going into their off week, we expect a strong performance by the Eagles.  The team is also playing with revenge after losing 20-10 to Dallas at home as 7-point favorites back in Week 2.  Philadelphia’s performance in that game was pathetic, especially since they only had 7 rushing yards on 17 rushes in that game.  That was unexplainable for a Chip Kelly offense; Philadelphia averages 114 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  The Eagles will have much better success running the ball in this game as the Cowboys have allowed opponents to run for 569 yards on 4.7 yards per rush in their last five games.  Overall, the Dallas defense is allowing 27 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.       

Dallas was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Seahawks.  The Cowboys came flat off their bye the previous week, but that game was on the road.  At home, Dallas was expected to come with a much better effort.  They did that, but it still wasn’t enough as Seattle beat them 13-12.  Dallas has now lost five consecutive games, and with Matt Cassel at quarterback, the Cowboys’ offense is very limited.  He completed just 13 passes for 97 yards last week, and he’ll face another strong secondary that is holding opponents to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  Overall, the Eagles’ defense is only giving up 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Philadelphia is rested and ready, so we’ll lay the points with the Eagles in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play EAGLES (-).

New York’s offense has been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in seven of their eight games.  Overall, New York is averaging 26.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played four road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been terrific.  They scored 26 points in Dallas, 24 points in Buffalo, and 49 points last week in New Orleans.  New York will face a terrible Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 2,126 yards with an 17/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has been strong at home where they are averaging 25 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buccaneers have a good running game at home where they are averaging 138.7 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Tampa bay will run all over a New York defense that has given up 554 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush over their last four games.  Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball will open up some big passing plays down the field for QB Jameis Winston who has completed 69.5% (41-59) of his passes for 616 yards on 10.4 yards per pass attempt over his last ten quarters of play.  The Giants’ defense is allowing 29 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Oakland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Pittsburgh.  Two weeks ago, the Raiders were off their bye and caught the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Last week, Oakland caught a fortunate break when Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick left the game with an injury on New York’s opening series.  Oakland’s defense had the luxury of facing Geno Smith who is simply a bad NFL quarterback.  The Raiders took advantage and won 34-20.  Quarterback Derek Carr has played back-to-back perfect games; he has completed 70.1% (47-67) of his passes for 622 yards with 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr is highly unlikely to repeat those performances, especially with this being an early start on the body clock against a Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home this season. 

Pittsburgh was in a tough spot last week even though they were playing at home.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was returning from injury; his first game since September 27th.  He was rusty while throwing 3 interceptions against a strong Cincinnati defense.  The Steelers are now in a much better position to play up to their level, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they’ll be playing an Oakland team in a major regression spot.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been better at home  where they are averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers will face an Oakland defense that is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Pittsburgh is in a terrific bounce back spot while Oakland is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this early game on Sunday.     

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Miami was in a terrible spot for their game last Thursday night in New England.  The Dolphins went into that game off back-to-back perfect outings, so it was highly unlikely they would be able to duplicate those performances against the Patriots.  Miami got blown out 36-7, but that result is easily excusable.  The Dolphins are now set to come back with a peak performance, especially since they are playing with some legitimate revenge.  Miami got embarrassed 41-14 by Buffalo at home back in Week 3, and that result is one they are looking to atone for.  The Dolphins will control the line of scrimmage in this game with Lamar Miller running the football; he rushed for 234 yards on 7.3 yards per rush against Rex Ryan’s defense in two meetings last season.  Miami ran for 102 yards on 20 rushes in the first meeting despite trailing 27-0 at half time.  Overall, the Dolphins are averaging 5.0 yards per rush this season, and their ability to run the ball makes them live in this game.

Buffalo returns home off a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London two weeks ago.  The Bills come in off a bye, but that is nullified with Miami also having extra time after last playing on a Thursday night.  Buffalo is just 1-3 at home this season, so it’s not like they hold a big home field edge either.  The Bills will get Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback, but how effective will he be considering he hasn’t played in almost a month?  Buffalo’s defense has been poor at home this season; they’ve allowed 24 points or more three of their four games.  Overall, Buffalo is allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  The Bills’ other two wins this season have come against the AFC South which is the worst division in football; the Colts and Titans are a combined 4-11 on the season.  Miami is in a good spot while playing with revenge, so we’ll take the Dolphins plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

Indianapolis is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Colts come into this game with a losing 3-4 SU record, and they are just 2-5 ATS with one being a backdoor cover against the Patriots.  Indianapolis has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Colts are giving up 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road, and overall they have faced a schedule of opponents that have averaged just 24.6 points on 5.7 yards per play in all games this season.  The Colts’ defense has been gashed on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 301 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per rush in their last two games.  Indianapolis will now face a potent Carolina rushing attack with a mobile quarterback; the Panthers are averaging 165 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.

Carolina is one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and we expect the Panthers to win once again tonight.  Carolina’s offense has been much improved this season; the Panthers are averaging 27 points per game.  This is a substantial improvement considering the Panthers averaged 22 points per game or less during the past three seasons.  Carolina’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Panthers are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  At home, the Panthers hold opponents to just 4.7 yards per play.  The Colts' offense is only averaging 21.0 points per game this season (versus opponents that allow 24.4 ppg), so Indianapolis is up against it in this matchup.  We’ll lay the points with Carolina in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play PANTHERS (-).

Green Bay’s offense has been ho-hum over the last few weeks as they’ve scored 27 points or less in their last three games.  The Packers come into tonight’s game fresh off their bye, so we expect a peak offensive performance.  Overall this season, Green Bay is averaging 27.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Packers will be facing a stout Denver rush defense, so Green Bay’s game plan for this game will be to throw the ball a lot with Aaron Rodgers.  While the Broncos’ secondary has terrific seasonal numbers, they’ve faced non-elite quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Josh McCown.  Now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against one of the best in the league in Rodgers, and since Green Bay will be throwing the ball a ton, we expect the Broncos’ secondary to have their worst game of the season.         

Denver’s offense has poor seasonal numbers, especially quarterback Peyton Manning.  However, this game sets up extremely well for Denver’s running game, especially since the Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per rush this season.  The Broncos will have a lot of success on the ground in this game, and once the Packers commit to the run, Manning will be able to hit some big passing plays downfield.  Like the Broncos, the Packers’ defense has faced a weak slate of opposing quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Nick Foles, and Colin Kaepernick.  Those three guys pose no passing threat, and yet the Packers were still gouged on the ground.  Manning and the Broncos’ offense will also be primed for a big scoring game, especially since they are home underdogs off their bye week.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Broncos on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game with a 4-2 record, and one of those losses came last week at New England who is 7-0 on the season.  The Jets’ other loss came at home to Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game in Oakland, especially since they are playing off a loss.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game; they average 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Oakland’s defense has good seasonal numbers against the run, but they’ve played a weak slate of rushing attacks that only average 100 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  The Jets’ ability to run the ball opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who will throw on an Oakland secondary that has allowed 303.8 passing yards per game this season. 

Oakland was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in San Diego last week.  The Raiders were off their bye, and they were catching the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Quarterback Derek Carr played a perfect game as he completed 77.4% (24-31) of his passes for 289 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr and the Oakland offense will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the Jets in this game, and we expect major regression from the Raiders.  The Jets’ defense is only giving up 17.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York’s secondary is one of the best in the league as they hold opponents to just 211.7 passing yards per game on 5.3 yards per pass attempt.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).

New York’s offense has been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in six of their seven games.  Overall, New York is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played three road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been good.  They scored 26 points in Dallas and 24 points in Buffalo.  The common thing about those two games is that they were played on artificial turf while the game in Philadelphia was on a natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track inside a dome, so the Giants’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.  New York will face a New Orleans secondary that has allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 1,776 yards with an 11/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season. 

New Orleans also has a strong offense, especially at home where they are averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 286 yards per game thru the air on 7.3 yards per pass attempt.  Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees has thrown for 1,871 yards this season while only throwing four interceptions on 253 pass attempts.  New Orleans’ offense will score their share of points against a New York defense that is allowing 22.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play this season.  Five of New Orleans’ seven games this season have had 48 points or more scored, so this total isn’t inflated at all.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Saints on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

The New York Giants are 4-1 over their last five games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  Aside from one poor outing, the Giants’ offense has been pretty good this season; they’ve scored 20 points or more in six of their seven games.  Overall, New York is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played three road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been good.  They scored 26 points in Dallas and 24 points in Buffalo.  The common thing about those two games is that they were played on artificial turf while the game in Philadelphia was on a natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track inside a dome, so the Giants’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

New Orleans is in a poor situational spot for this game against New York.  The Saints come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  New Orleans beat a previously unbeaten Atlanta team 31-21 after jumping out to a 24-7 lead, and last week the Saints beat the Colts 27-21 after jumping out to a 27-0 lead.  New Orleans led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Saints’ defense has been poor once again this season as they’ve allowed 20 points or more in all seven of their games.  Overall, New Orleans is allowing 26.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Saints have been underdogs in five of their seven games this season; they lost outright to the Bucs and they needed overtime to escape the Cowboys by 3 points in the two games they were favored.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Giants plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Miami was dreadful when they opened the season at 1-3.  That led to the firing of head coach Joe Philbin after their 27-14 blowout loss in London to the New York Jets.  Miami had a bye the following week, and in interim head coach Dan Campbell’s first game, the Dolphins won 38-10 in Tennessee.  The Dolphins followed that game with another blowout win last Sunday when they waxed Houston 44-26.  The back-to-back blowout wins look impressive, but keep in mind Miami beat two terrible teams that are a combined 3-10 on the season.  Miami is now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is a perfect 6-0 on the season with a +87 point differential.  To compare, the Titans and Texans have a combined -65 point differential on the season.

New England is one of the five remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain in that group after tonight’s game.  The Patriots have won every game by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 16 points per game.  New England’s defense has been terrific at home this season while holding opponents to just 20.3 points per game.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 35.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s offense was in a terrible spot for last week’s game against the Jets, and they still scored 30 points on just 353 yards of total offense.  The Patriots are in a much better spot for this game while Miami is set to regress off back-to-back blowout wins.  We’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Baltimore is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Ravens come into this game with a terrible 1-5 SU record and they’ve yet to cover a spread as they are 0-5-1 ATS.  Baltimore has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Ravens are giving up 27 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens’ secondary has been torched repeatedly; the unit has allowed 11 touchdown passes with just 3 interceptions while giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  Those numbers have come against non-elite quarterbacks like Mike Vick, Colin Kaepernick, Josh McCown, and Derek Carr.  The Ravens will now face Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer who has thrown for 1,737 yards on 9.0 yards per pass attempt with a 14/5 touchdown/interception ratio this season.       

Arizona is just 1-2 after opening the season with three blowout wins.  The Cardinals return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 25-13 loss in Pittsburgh.  Arizona will be primed for a big effort in this game, and they get a perfect matchup to bounce back with a big win.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 33.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 24.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Cardinals are only allowing 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play against offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.  At home, the Cardinals only give up 16.7 points per game, so the undermanned Baltimore offense is up against it in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Philadelphia looks like they’ve righted the ship after opening the season at 1-3.  The Eagles have won their last two games at home over the Saints and Giants.  Philadelphia has been known for their offense under Chip Kelly, but recently, the Eagles have been most impressive on the defensive side of the ball.  In their last two games against two explosive offenses, the Eagles held New Orleans and New York to 24 total points.  Overall, Philadelphia is allowing just 18.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play this season.  The Eagles put those numbers up against a group of offenses that average 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Philadelphia has also carried their defense on the road where they are giving up 22 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.          

Carolina comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record after upsetting Seattle last week.  The Panthers’ offense has underperformed despite being undefeated.  Carolina is only averaging 5.2 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.6 yards per play.  The Panthers have faced a weak slate of defenses, so this game against Philadelphia will be a step-up in defensive class.  Carolina’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball.  The Panthers are only giving up 18.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play against offenses that average 21.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The two defenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Eagles and Panthers on Sunday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their road game in New Orleans the last time they played on a Thursday night.  The Falcons played well below expectations in that game, but we can easily excuse that loss.  Off that poor performance and with extra time to prepare for this game, we expect a peak effort from Atlanta against Tennessee.  The Falcons are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Tennessee defense that has been shredded at home this season.  The Titans are allowing 29 points per game at home on an ugly 6.4 yards per play.  Atlanta’s biggest offensive edge in this game will be on the ground as the Falcons run for 130 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  Tennessee gives up 147 rushing yards per game at home on a whopping 5.3 yards per rush.          

Tennessee is 1-4 on the year after opening the season with a 42-14 blowout win in Tampa Bay.  Since that game, the Titans have been terrible, especially on offense.  Tennessee has scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, and their offense will be hard-pressed to produce in this game.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota (MCL) is out along with starting center Brian Schwenke (leg).  The Titans now have a reshuffled offensive line after benching their right tackle for poor play.  Zach Mettenberger will start under center, but he’ll have to win this game thru the air because the Titans have a terrible running game that only averages 108 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush despite facing defenses that allow 122 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Atlanta only gives up 79 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush, so the Falcons have a monumental edge at the line of scrimmage.  Atlanta is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 2-4 record with their wins coming over the Titans and Ravens who are a combined 2-9 on the season.  Cleveland’s offense has decent seasonal numbers because they’ve played a terrible collection of defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have a poor running game (92 yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a poor passing quarterback.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.   

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 2-3 on the year so far.  However, they’ve played a brutal schedule with games against the Packers, Cardinals, Steelers who are a combined 14-4 on the season.  St. Louis comes into this game fresh off their bye, and they are catching Cleveland off back-to-back overtime games with their last being a 26-23 home loss to Denver.  The Rams are also playing their first home game since September 27th, so they will be primed for a big effort, especially since they lost their last home game.  St. Louis has a good defense that is allowing just 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is taking a big step-down in offensive class against Cleveland in this game, and the Rams’ stop unit will dominate this game.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Cleveland is in a terrible situational and Scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Minnesota won a Best Bet for us last week in their win over Kansas City, and we’ll come right back with the Vikings again this week.  Minnesota has an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson.  The Vikings will control this game at the line of scrimmage as Minnesota averages 126 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 110 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  When Minnesota beat Detroit 26-16 back in Week 2, the Vikings ran for 199 yards on 42 attempts with Peterson running for 134 of those yards.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who was highly efficient in the first meeting when he completed 77.8% (14-18) of his passes.

Detroit got their first win of the season last week when they outlasted the Bears 37-34 in overtime.  That win puts the Lions at 1-5 on the season, and it appears Detroit will only be able to beat bad teams this season.  Detroit is only averaging 20 points per game on 5.5 yards per play; those numbers are inflated because of last week’s game.  The Lions have scored 17 points or less in four of their six games.  Detroit’s defense has been horrendous as they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota already beat Detroit handily this season, and since the Lions are a mess of a team, we’ll back the Vikings in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Seattle has had a disappointing season so far as they come into tonight’s game with a 2-4 SU record.  The Seahawks have blown fourth quarter leads in all four of their losses this season, so Seattle could very well be undefeated.  Seattle’s defense has been the culprit as they’ve given up 51 fourth quarter points in their losses.  Off back-to-back tough losses because of their defense, we expect a big effort by the Seahawks stop unit in this game, especially since they are taking a big step-down in class.  Seattle faced the Bengals and Panthers in their last two games; those teams are a combined 11-0 SU on the season.  Overall, Seattle is allowing 20.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  So despite the losing record, Seattle has actually played above average football on the defensive side of the ball.

San Francisco is also 2-4 SU on the season, but the 49ers have been a much better team at home this season.  They are 2-1 at home where their defense has been terrific.  San Francisco has allowed a total of 40 points in their three home games this season.  The 49ers are only allowing opponents to score 13.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on their home field.  San Francisco put those numbers up against offenses that average 25.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  This has been a low-scoring series recently as the last five meetings have had just 24, 22, 40, 36, and 32 total points scored.  This is also an important divisional game for both teams, so we can expect some conservative play-calling, especially with just three days of preparation time.  The defenses are the best units on the field, so look for a low-scoring game between the Seahawks and 49ers on Thursday night.

9* Play UNDER the total (Seahawks/49ers).

New York and Philadelphia will have the same game plan for tonight, and it will lead to a lot of points scored.  The Giants and Eagles both have strong rush defenses, but their secondaries are both terrible.  Both teams will throw the ball a lot in this game, and that means we’ll see a high-scoring game.  New York’s offense has been good this season; the Giants have scored 20 points or more in all five of their games.  Overall, New York is averaging 26.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Giants will be just the second strong offensive team Philadelphia has played this season.  The Eagles faced the Falcons in their season opener, and they gave up 26 points in that game.  Quarterback Eli Manning has been terrific this season while throwing for 1,417 yards with a solid 10/2 touchdown/interception ratio.  Manning threw for 429 yards on the Eagles the last time he faced them, and there’s no reason he won’t have another monster game against the Philadelphia defense.

Philadelphia’s offense finally broke out last week when they scored 39 points on the Saints.  The Eagles scored 29 of those points in the second half, and that outburst is a signal that the high-scoring Philadelphia offense is set to take off.  The Eagles reverted back to their fast pace in last week’s game as they had 87 offensive snaps.  Philadelphia and quarterback Sam Bradford get another favorable matchup in this game against the poor New York secondary.  The Giants are allowing 304.2 passing yards per game while giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York will also be without one of their better cornerbacks, Prince Amukamara, because of injury.  Bradford has attempted the fourth most passes in the NFL this season, and since the Giants’ secondary is weak and undermanned, the Eagles will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Eagles on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

New England’s offense was sluggish in Dallas last week.  The Patriots only had 20 points thru three quarters before finishing the game with 30 points on 356 yards of total offense.  New England’s offense will be primed for a big game against the Colts, especially after the scandal of deflated footballs came to light after New England’s 45-7 win in the playoffs.  The Patriots will have no shame in scoring as many points as possible in this game, and when in motivational situations like this, the Patriots’ offense tends to pour it on.  Overall this season, New England is averaging 37.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Indianapolis’ offense has poor seasonal numbers, but those numbers can be ignored since quarterback Andrew Luck has missed the last two games.  Luck is slated to return for this game, and practice reports this week have said he was throwing the ball with “high-velocity” while going thru full workouts.  Luck and the Colts’ offense will also be primed for a big scoring game since the Patriots haven’t faced a good quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger way back in Week 1.  New England’s defense has feasted on Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, and Brandon Weeden in their last three games.  The Over is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams with at least 52 points or more being scored every time (69, 59, 55, 83, 65, 62, 52) for an average of 63.6 total points per game.  Look for another high-scoring matchup between the Patriots and Colts on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total (Patriots/Colts).

Washington was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Atlanta last week.  The Redskins were catching the Falcons in a major flat spot, and we won a Best Bet selection on Washington even though they blew the game in overtime.  Off that overtime loss, Washington is now the team in the bad spot, and we’ll play against them for that reason.  The Redskins have also been hit with cluster injuries along their offensive line as their starting center and left tackle will both miss this game.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins will now face a stout New York front seven with a makeshift offensive line; that’s not a good thing for a limited signal caller.  Overall, Washington’s offense is only averaging 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  The Redskins will have limited scoring opportunities in this game against a Jets’ defense that is only giving up 13.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.   

New York comes into this game fresh off their bye after controlling the Dolphins in London.  The Jets are 3-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in their last home game against Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in front of their home fans, especially since their next home game after this comes on November 8th.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially after Washington gave up 156 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush to the Falcons last week.  The Jets average 127.2 yards on the ground per game, and that opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  New York is the better team and they are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play JETS (-).

Kansas City comes into this game off an inexcusable 18-17 home loss to the Bears last week.  The Chiefs were leading 17-3 at the half before getting out-scored 15-0 over the final 30 minutes of the game; it was 17-6 with 3:05 left to play in the game.  That loss was Kansas City’s fourth straight after winning their season opener in Houston.  The Chiefs also lost their best player, running back Jamaal Charles, to a season-ending knee injury.  After he got hurt, Kansas City’s offense did nothing on six drives against a terrible Chicago defense.  The Chiefs’ offense will struggle to move the ball consistently now, especially since Charles was also a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield.  Kansas City’s defense has underperformed this season.  The Chiefs are giving up 28.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

Minnesota is fresh off their bye, and since they went into their week of rest off a loss, the Vikings will be primed for a big effort in this game.  Minnesota is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season; they won those games by 10 and 17 points.  The Vikings have an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson; Minnesota averages 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 112.9 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will face a terrible Kansas City secondary that has allowed 13 touchdown passes this season.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for Bridgewater.  The Vikings’ defense is giving up just 15 points per game on 5.1 yards per play at home this season, so they will stifle the pedestrian Kansas City offense.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday afternoon.        

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Chicago and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Bears were terrible on offense last week as they only had 6 points scored over the first 57 minutes of the game.  But they scored two touchdowns over the final three minutes to squeak out an 18-17 win in Kansas City.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Chicago’s offense is primed for their best scoring performance of the season indoors on a fast track in Detroit.  Quarterback Jay Cutler will face one of the worst secondaries in the league, and he has the weapons to exploit the Lions.  Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 76.6% (111-145) of their passes for 1,340 yards on a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt.  Last week, Arizona’s offense took just 46 snaps and they scored 42 points on Detroit’s defense.  Overall, Detroit’s defense is allowing 27.6 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.

Detroit is 0-5 on the season, but the Lions have faced a tough schedule, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions have faced a collection of defenses that are only allowing 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Detroit is taking a monumental step-down in class as the Chicago defense is giving up 28.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In two games against the Bears last season, the Lions’ offense scored 54 total points, and Chicago’s defense is even worse this season.  Detroit will be throwing the ball a lot, especially against a Chicago secondary that has given up 11 touchdown passes while ranking 28th in the NFL in passer rating allowed.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bears and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their home game against Washington last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in that game despite the Falcons winning in overtime.  We even predicted that Atlanta’s offense would have their worst production of the season, and they did just that by only scoring 12 points in the first 59 minutes of the game.  Off that expected poor performance, Atlanta’s offense will get back to their scoring ways in this game against the putrid New Orleans defense.  The Falcons are averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.      

New Orleans is 1-4 on the season, and the Saints should actually be 0-5 as they were fortunate to beat the Cowboys in overtime a couple of weeks back.  The Saints’ defense has been atrocious despite playing weak offenses like the Buccaneers and Panthers.  Overall, New Orleans is giving up 28.6 points per game on an eye-popping 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 26.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints are taking a step-up in offensive class against the Falcons in this game as Atlanta is averaging 6.3 points per game more than the offenses New Orleans has faced so far this season.  The Saints’ offense has been inefficient all season; they’ve scored 19 points or less in three of their five games.  Atlanta is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play FALCONS (-).

Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season.  However, that pointspread record is phony as they scored with 2 seconds left against New England, and they covered a game in which they scored all of 12 points.  The Steelers blew a big divisional game last Thursday night at home against the Ravens, and it was evident from watching that game, that the Steelers are a one-dimensional team with Mike Vick at quarterback.  Vick still has mobility, but he cannot throw the ball downfield at all.  That element is a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense with Ben Roethlisberger under center, and it maximizes the skills of their wide receivers.  With Vick at quarterback, the Steelers are limited and highly predictable.  Pittsburgh will lean heavily on running back Le’Veon Bell, but that will allow the San Diego defense to contain the Steelers’ offense in this game.

San Diego is 2-2 on the season, and the Chargers will finally play their first back-to-back home game of the season.  San Diego beat the Browns last Sunday after returning home off back-to-back road losses.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 24 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the road this season, so the Chargers’ offense will move the ball consistently in this game.  San Diego will also get Antonio Gates back from suspension, and he is a vital part of the Chargers’ offense.  We’ll back San Diego in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (-).