San Francisco was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Packers.  The 49ers were returning home off back-to-back blowout road losses while catching Green Bay on a short week in the ultimate flat spot.  Still, with all that in their favor, San Francisco played a terrible game and lost 17-3.  San Francisco’s on-field play has been atrocious, and it appears the team is in for a long season.  The 49ers have been out-played on both sides of the ball, and their offense is downright pathetic.  San Francisco is only averaging 12 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  They’ve scored just 10 total points in their last two games.  San Francisco’s defense has been terrible as they are giving up 27.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  After holding the Vikings to just 3 points in their season opener, the 49ers have given up 107 points in their last three games. 

New York has won back-to-back games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  The Giants return home with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor San Francisco defense.  New York is averaging 25.5 points per game with their offensive strength coming thru the air.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 976 yards with a 7/1 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will be facing a 49ers secondary that has allowed a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York’s defense shouldn't have any problem in shutting down the pedestrian San Francisco offense.  The Giants are only giving up 20.5 points per game despite playing a group of offenses that average 26.3 points per game.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Arizona was in a terrible spot for their home game against St. Louis last week, and we cashed a Best Bet on the Rams in their 24-22 outright win as 7-point underdogs.  Off that expected poor performance, Arizona is now in a terrific bounce back spot for this game in Detroit.  The Cardinals are the superior team by a wide margin, and we expect them to play up to their level in this game.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Quarterback Carson palmer has been outstanding while throwing for 1,155 yards with a 10/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Arizona’s defense has also played extremely well as they are only allowing 18.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  All three of Arizona’s wins this season have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game which shows how dominating they’ve been.      

Detroit returns home after a terrible performance in Seattle where they actually should have won the game.  The Lions fumbled the ball on the goal line while going in for the game-winning touchdown with just over a minute left to play.  That stinging loss moved Detroit to 0-4 this season, and their season appears to be spiraling out of control.  The players have called out their coaches, and that is a clear indication that there’s turmoil inside the Lions locker room.  Detroit is only averaging 16.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 20.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 24 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona is in a focused spot, and since Detroit is simply a mess of a team, we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Buffalo enters this game off their worst performance of the season last week.  The Bills lost 24-10 at home to the Giants after their offense put-up just 313 yards of total offense.  Prior to that bad offensive game, Buffalo had scored 27 points or more in their previous three games.  Overall this season, the Bills are averaging 27.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo’s offense will get back on track in this game against a poor Tennessee defense.  The Titans have allowed 25.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus opposing offenses that only average 19.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Tennessee is taking a big step-up in offensive class in this game as Buffalo’s offense is averaging 7.8 points per game more than the offenses the Titans have faced this season.       

Tennessee comes into this game off their bye week, and home underdogs off a week of rest know they need to game plan to score more points.  The Titans’ offense has played above average this season, so it’s not like they need to do things different in order to score points in this game.  Tennessee is averaging 29.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo’s defense is allowing 23 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season, and aside from the Patriots, they’ve played three struggling offenses.  Buffalo and Tennessee both have mobile quarterbacks that can make plays with their legs, and that only opens things up for big plays downfield.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bills and Titans on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game with a lot of momentum after winning 23-20 at home in the final seconds last week.  The Redskins are now 2-2 on the season, and they’ve played much better football than expected.  Washington’s lone road game this season resulted in a 32-21 loss in New York against the Giants, but that loss can be excused as the Redskins were playing a Thursday night game on a short week after winning 24-10 as home underdogs.  So if we eliminate that game, Washington looks good at 2-1 with their lone loss being a 7-point defeat.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good, and that unit will have a major advantage against the patched-up Atlanta offensive line.  The Falcons’ line has played well so far this season, but that’s because they’ve played four weak defensive fronts which has allowed QB Matt Ryan to gash opponents thru the air.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game, so there’s a good chance the Falcons’ offense will have their lowest scoring output to date in this game.     

Atlanta comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS.  Atlanta has scored 24 points or more in every game with their last being a 27-point demolition of Houston.  The Falcons have scored 87 points in their last two games, but with a step-up in defensive class, we expect major regression in this game.  Fortunately for the Falcons, they’ve been able to out-score their opponents because their defense has played below average football this season.  Atlanta is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  As mentioned above, the Falcons’ offense will face a stout Washington defense, so this game will be much different than their last two games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Washington on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Detroit was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Broncos.  The Lions were playing their first home game of the season in primetime while catching Denver on back-to-back road games after a miraculous come from behind win in Kansas City.  The Lions only trailed by 2 points late in the fourth quarter before imploding and losing 24-12.  After that loss, the players started to call out their coaches in the media, and that’s not a good sign.  That is a clear indication that there’s turmoil within the Lions locker room, and since their on-field play has been atrocious, Detroit appears to be in for a long season.  The Lions come into this game with an 0-3 record after being out-played on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 27.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Seattle bounced back strong last week when they notched their first win of the season.  The Seahawks beat the Bears 26-0 after losing in St. Louis and in Green Bay to begin the season.  Seattle comes into this game with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor Detroit defense even without Marshawn Lynch; he will miss this game with injury.  So far this season, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 30 passes or more in all three games.  The Seahawks haven’t been reliant on Lynch, so his absence here isn’t a detriment, especially since Detroit’s defensive strength is stopping the run.  Wilson will face a Lions secondary that has allowed 78.2% (79-101) completions for 882 yards on a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Dallas and New Orleans have major issues on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cowboys gave up 26 points to the Giants and 39 points to the Falcons this season.  The common thing about those two offenses is they both possess good quarterbacks with strong passing attacks.  Dallas held Philadelphia to just 10 points, but the Eagles are a run-based offense, so that defensive effort can be ignored.  Dallas will face another good quarterback (Drew Brees) and a strong passing offense in New Orleans, and the defensive results will resemble their two games against New York and Atlanta.  The Cowboys’ secondary allowed Eli Manning and Matt Ryan to complete 44 passes for 478 yards, and both of those games came at home.

New Orleans’ pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they’ve been torched in their three games so far this season.  The Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.1% (53-84) of their passes for 829 yards on a whopping 9.9 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Overall, the New Orleans’ defense is allowing 28 points per game on an ugly 6.8 yards per play against offenses that only average 5.8 yards per play.  Dallas will have Brandon Weeden under center once again with Tony Romo out with injury.  Weeden was excellent last week as he completed 84.6% (22-26) of his passes for 232 yards.  With two capable offense facing two poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Saints on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

St. Louis came into this season ready to win.  The Rams won their season opener over Seattle, but the last two weeks have resulted in losses.  Their defeat in Washington in Week 2 was expected; we had a Best Bet winner on the Redskins in that game.  Last week, St. Louis lost at home in an ugly 12-6 game to Pittsburgh.  Off back-to-back losses, the Rams will hit the road and play a divisional game against the Cardinals in Arizona.  And the setup couldn’t be any better for St. Louis.  The Rams will bring their peak effort in this game, and their excellent defense will lead the way.  St. Louis is allowing just 22.3 points per game on 325 yards of total offense.  The Rams are giving up just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is tied for the league lead in sacks with 13, and they’ve only allowed 2 passing touchdowns in three games this season.      

Arizona comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 record, but the Cardinals have played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  Arizona owns wins over the Saints, Bears, and 49ers who are a combined 1-8 on the season.  Those three teams also have terrible defenses that are allowing 31.3 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the St. Louis defense in this game as the Rams are allowing 9 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses the Cardinals have faced.  Arizona is set to regress sharply in this game, especially after dominating their last two games while winning by a combined score of 95-30.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Arizona, and since St. Louis is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Rams in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play RAMS (+).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-2 record despite playing the Jets, Titans, and Raiders.  The Browns have underperformed on both sides of the ball against those three opponents.  Cleveland is only averaging 19.3 points per game against those defenses that give up 22.7 points per game as a group.  The Browns have no consistency at quarterback as they’ve rotated between Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown; the latter will start this game.  Cleveland has no running game whatsoever (86.3 yards per game), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a pair of poor passing quarterbacks.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.   

San Diego returns home off back-to-back road losses, so we can be assured of a peak effort in this game.  The Chargers have been terrific in this situation in their two years under head coach Mike McCoy.  San Diego is 4-1 SU at home when playing off a road loss; they’ve won those games by an average of 8.8 points per game.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 22 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  San Diego is taking a major step-down in defensive class for this game against Cleveland, so the Chargers’ offense will breakout in this game after scoring just 33 total points in their last two games.  San Diego gets the perfect opponent to notch an easy win, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Carolina has played an extremely easy schedule so far, and they’ve capitalized by going 3-0 in those games.  Fortunately for the Panthers, they get another poor opponent in this game against Tampa Bay.  Carolina has won games this season by controlling the ball and the clock while allowing their defense to dominate their overmatched opponents.  The Panthers’ defense is only giving up 16 points per game on 315 yards of total offense.  Carolina is holding opponents to just 4.6 yards per play.  The Panthers have an excellent run-stuffing defense that only allows 75.7 yards per game on the ground on just 3.3 yards per rush.  Their ability to dominant the line of scrimmage is the key factor in this game, especially against a poor offensive team that has had trouble running and throwing the ball consistently.      

Tampa Bay has also played a weak slate of opponents, but they are just 1-2 on the season.  The Buccaneers are in rebuilding mode with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston under center.  Winston has faced three poor defensive teams that are allowing an average of 24.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Winston and the Tampa Bay offense are only averaging 16.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Now they will be facing the best defense they’ve seen all season; Carolina allows 8.6 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses Tampa Bay has faced.  Tampa Bay’s defense has also been poor as they are giving up 26.7 points per game this season.  Carolina is simply the superior team with a massive edge on the line of scrimmage, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have major issues on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary.  The Ravens come into this game with a 0-3 record mainly due to their lack of defensive stops.  Baltimore led late in the fourth quarter in their last two games, but their secondary gave up game-winning touchdowns, resulting in a pair of losses.  The Ravens’ secondary allowed Derek Carr and Andy Dalton to complete 64.1% (50-78) of their passes for 734 yards on a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt.  While it’s true Baltimore’s defense gets a big break in facing Mike Vick instead of Ben Roethlisberger (MCL injury), the Ravens’ secondary still has gaping holes all over the field.  With Vick’s ability to make plays with his legs, the Steelers will be able to hit some big passes downfield simply on broken plays setup by Vick’s scrambling.

Pittsburgh’s pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they were gouged in the first two games this season.  Pittsburgh allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.4% (58-78) of their passes for 623 yards on 8.0 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Last week in St. Louis, the Steelers held the Rams to just 6 points.  But upon further inspection, Pittsburgh allowed Nick Foles to complete 67.9% (19-28) of his passes for 197 yards on 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  Now the Steelers will face Joe Flacco who torched Pittsburgh last season while completing 67% (69-103) of his passes for 728 yards on 7.1 yards per pass attempt with a 6/1 touchdown/interception ratio.  With two capable offenses facing two poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total (Ravens/Steelers).

Kansas City’s offensive success is predicated on their running game.  If the Chiefs can the run the ball consistently on their opponent, they tend to score points.  And that will be the case tonight against Green Bay.  The Packers lost two of their top run defenders to injury in the first two weeks, so their defensive front is very thin.  Green Bay allowed the Bears to run for 158 yards on 29 carries in their season opener, and that was with their full personnel.  Last week, the Packers gave up 119 rushing yards to the Seahawks despite Seattle playing in catch-up mode throughout the game.  Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles gashed the stout Broncos defense for 125 yards last Thursday night, so he has to be salivating at this matchup against the Packers.  Quarterback Alex Smith is a very effective passer when the opposing defense is geared up to stop the Chiefs’ running game.  Smith also possesses the mobility to extend plays with his legs, and scrambling quarterbacks is a major defensive weakness of the Packers.

Green Bay’s offense is terrific with Aaron Rodgers under center.  The Packers haven’t skipped a beat this season.  Green Bay scored 31 points on the Bears in their season opener, and last week they scored 27 points on the Seahawks.  Rodgers has completed 76.8% (43-56) of his passes for 438 yards with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Rodgers is averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have plenty of success tonight against a Kansas City secondary that is missing their best cornerback (Sean Smith) due to suspension.  Green Bay has scored 26 points or more in nine straight home games, and that streak will continue tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Packers on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but the Broncos could actually be 0-2 on the season.  Denver beat Baltimore 19-13 in their season opener at home despite trailing by an average of 1.9 points per minute in that game.  Then last Thursday night, Denver won 31-24 in Kansas City in a miraculous finish.  The Broncos scored the game-tying touchdown with less than a minute to play, and then they returned a fumble for a touchdown when the Chiefs were simply trying to run out the clock.  Denver had a +4 in turnover margin in that game yet they barely won.  The Broncos were also 3-point road underdogs in that game, but now they are 3-point road favorites to a team that is rated equally to Kansas City.

Detroit is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Lions could very well be 1-1.  Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego in their season opener, and last week they came out flat in their second consecutive road game.  Detroit returns home a desperate football team, and in a primetime national TV game against a Super Bowl contender, we expect a peak performance by the Lions tonight.  Detroit went 7-1 SU at home last season with their lone loss coming by 3 points to the Bills in a 17-14 defensive grinder.  Tonight’s game projects to be a low-scoring game as well, so taking a field game with the home underdog is the way to go.  We’ll back Detroit in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play LIONS (+).

Pittsburgh and St. Louis have major issues on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary.  The Steelers’ pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they were gouged in the first two games this season.  Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74% (58-78) of their passes for 623 yards on 8.0 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers gave up 28 points in New England, and they gave up 18 points at home to a bad San Francisco offense last week.  Pittsburgh’s strength is stopping the run, but they will now be without their best linebacker, Ryan Shazier, who will miss today's game with a shoulder injury.  His absence makes the Pittsburgh defense even softer, so the Rams will have success on the ground and thru the air in this game.

St. Louis was in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for their game against the Redskins last week.  The Rams were hung over from their important overtime home underdog win versus the Seahawks, and the Rams' on-field play showed that.  St. Louis only scored 10 points on 213 yards of total offense.  But we can simply draw a line thru that result since St. Louis was in a bad spot to give their best effort.  In their season opener, the Rams scored 34 points on the Seahawks who have a superior defense when compared to Pittsburgh.  The Rams’ defense also allowed 31 points in that game, and Pittsburgh has a potent passing offense that will shred a weak St. Louis secondary.  The Steelers also get Le’Veon Bell back from injury, and his presence just makes the offense more explosive.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field today, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Rams on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total (Steelers/Rams).

The Colts are off to a 0-2 SU/ATS start this season and that will ensure a very focused and motivated effort today.  The Colts Monday night loss was largely due to turnovers as they had a 5-1 turnover deficit versus the Jets, including losing a fumble on the 1-yard line that would have made the score 10-7.  That game was much closer than the 20-7 final score indicated as the Colts were only outgained by 1 total yard (343-344) and actually held a 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play advantage.  Despite that loss, QB Andrew Luck is still an incredible 14-2 SU after a defeat, so he should respond with a solid effort today.  Indianapolis has played better than their 0-2 SU/ATS record indicates as they also had a 3-0 turnover deficit at Buffalo in Week 1.  That means the Colts are now -7 in turnovers after just two games and this number is likely to revert back to the norm in future weeks.  Andrew Luck does throw more interceptions than most quarterbacks, but keep in mind this is because the Colts run more passing plays than most teams.  In fact, Luck's career interception % is actually lower than several famous quarterbacks such as Montana, Aikman, Manning, etc.

The Titans have played two weak opponents this season against Tampa Bay and Cleveland, so Tennessee is now taking a substantial step up in class versus the Indianapolis.  Rookie QB Marcus Mariota has looked good, but he is still a rookie and the Colts now have two full weeks of game film on him to develop a better gameplan and plan of attack.  Tennessee's defense is still suspect after playing two weak opponents and they lost 28-14 to backup QB Johnny Manziel last week who averaged an incredible 11.5 yards per pass with a 133.9 QB rating.  He averaged an awful 5.0 ypp with a 42.0 QB rating in his five games last year.  Indianapolis' should have a big bounce back game today, especially since the Colts have dominated Tennessee in this series, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the past seven meetings, including easy 41-17 and 27-10 wins last season.

9* Play COLTS (-).

Cincinnati comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record after crushing the Raiders in Oakland 33-13 and beating San Diego 24-19 at home last week.  The win in Oakland is nothing special, and last week the Bengals caught the Chargers in a bad scheduling and situational spot.  San Diego was off a big come from behind home win and playing across the country in an early start game.  Cincinnati now finds themselves in a bad spot as they will play a desperate divisional rival on the road.  The Bengals have beaten the Ravens in three straight meetings, so that means they could come into this game overconfident.  Despite Cincinnati’s offense looking good with 57 points scored, they’ve actually underperformed on the field.  The Bengals are averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 29.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.2 yards per play against defenses that give up 6.5 yards per play.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 0-2 SU record, but the Ravens could actually be 2-0 on the season.  They lost a close 19-13 game in Denver in their season opener, and last week they blew a late lead in Oakland and lost 37-33.  The Ravens return home for a game they must win, and we expect them to bring their best effort.  Baltimore is 12-4 SU at home over the last two seasons with their average win coming by +12.9 points per game.  The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 at home when playing off a road loss in their previous game with their average win coming by +10.2 points per game in that situation.  The setup for a prime Baltimore performance couldn’t be any better, especially since they’ll be facing a familiar divisional opponent that is fat and happy right now.  This is a great spot for Baltimore to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the short number with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Washington was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Rams.  The Redskins were catching St. Louis off their big overtime home win over Seattle, and it was simply a major flat spot for the Rams.  Washington took full advantage, and so did we by winning a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in their easy 24-10 blowout of St. Louis.  However, Washington is now in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in New York.  The Redskins are playing on a short week with this being their first game on the road; they also hosted Miami in Week 1.  Washington was a 4-point home underdog to the Dolphins, and they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Rams last week.  Now they are only 3-point road underdogs on the road.  Clearly, the oddsmakers have overreacted to last week’s results, especially since the Giants come into this game winless on the season.

New York is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Giants could actually be 2-0.  They mismanaged the clock in their 27-26 loss in Dallas in their season opener, and last week they blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead at home to the Falcons.  Atlanta scored the winning touchdown with just over a minute to play in that game.  Off back-to-back blown games, tonight’s game for the Giants is very important.  New York can ill-afford to drop to 0-3 SU on the season, so they will come with a supreme effort in this game, especially since they are playing a division opponent.  The Giants are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four meetings against the Redskins, and quarterback Eli Manning has been spectacular against Washington.  In the two meetings last season, Manning completed 70% (51-73) of his passes for 550 yards with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.  The Giants won those games by a combined scored of 69-27 and won the two games the year prior 44-23.  That means New York has outscored Washington 113-50 the past two years while going a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS with victory margins by 7, 14, 31, and 11 points.  New York is in a good spot to notch their first win of the season, so we’ll back the Giants on Thursday night.

10* Play GIANTS (-).

New York fired Rex Ryan a year too late, and because of that, the Jets suffered thru an embarrassing 4-12 SU campaign in 2014.  Former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is the new head coach, and he stepped into a pretty good situation.  Bowles is a defensive guru, and with Darrelle Revis returning, the Jets’ defense is a much improved unit.  The Jets beat Cleveland 31-10 in their season opener at home, but that result was expected.  The Browns are a bad football team, so New York’s win doesn’t mean much at all.  The game was much closer than the final score indicates as the Jets only out-yarded the Browns 333-321 with an 18-15 first down advantage.  The difference in the game were the five Cleveland turnovers, including four lost fumbles, and the Browns’ inability to score inside the red zone; they were 0-2 inside the 20-yard line.  The Jets’ offense was pedestrian as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 15 passes for 179 yards.  New York is taking a monumental step-up in class against the Colts in this game, and we expect a much different outcome for the Jets tonight.

Indianapolis comes into this game off a 27-14 blowout loss in Buffalo last week.  That loss now sets the Colts up in a prime situational bounce-back spot for this home opener.  Last week's loss was not a surprise as quarterback Andrew Luck had one of his worst games last season in Cleveland when he completed just 45% (24-for-53) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  The Browns are coached by Mike Pettine who is a disciple of the Rex Ryan defensive schemes.  Last week against Ryan’s defense, Luck once again had an awful game as he completed just 53% (26-for-49) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  Those two bad performances by Luck shows that he struggles mightily against that particular defensive scheme.  However, a solid bounce-back performance is expected tonight as Luck has been incredible when playing off a loss in his career; he’s a fantastic 14-1 SU and ATS in the following game with the wins coming by an average of +11.6 points per game.  The Colts are simply the better team, and in a terrific bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with Indianapolis at home on Monday night.

10* Play COLTS (-).

Seattle’s offense was sluggish last week in St. Louis.  The Seahawks only had 13 points thru three quarters as their offensive line had a difficult time blocking the very good defensive line of St. Louis.  Quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked a whopping 6 times in that game, and the exceptional Seattle running game was held to 124 yards on 32 carries.  Seattle is taking a monumental step-down in defensive class in this game, and their offense will breakout against the poor Green Bay defense.  The Packers gave up 23 points on 402 yards of total offense to the Bears last week.  Green Bay was gouged for 189 yards on the ground while allowing a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Seattle’s ground game could be even better, and QB Wilson will hit big passing plays down field in this game. 

Green Bay’s offense is terrific with Aaron Rodgers under center.  The Packers didn’t skip a beat last week in Chicago as they scored 31 points on the Bears’ defense.  Rodgers completed 78.3% (18-23) of his passes for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Rodgers averaged a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have similar success tonight against a Seattle defense that allowed Nick Foles to complete 18 passes for 297 yards last week; Foles averaged an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt.  Green Bay scored 26 points or more in every home game last season, and with this being their home opener on national TV, the Packers will be primed for a big performance.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Packers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

St. Louis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Washington.  The Rams come in off a big win in a game they prepped for all summer.  St. Louis beat Seattle 34-31 in overtime last week.  That divisional win was an emotional one for the Rams after they tied the game with less than a minute to play to force overtime.  St. Louis now owns back-to-back home wins over the Seahawks, and their personnel simply matches-up extremely well with Seattle.  After beating the Seahawks last season, the Rams fell flat the following week when they lost 31-17 at home to San Francisco.  The Rams are now on the road and laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they shutout last season.  St. Louis beat the Redskins 24-0 in Washington last season.  That result was an embarrassing low-point for Washington, and they’ve had this game circled in red ever since.

Washington lost 17-10 at home to Miami last week, but the Redskins actually out-played the Dolphins in that game.  Washington took a 10-7 lead into the fourth quarter before losing on a 69-yard punt return touchdown.  Overall, the Redskins out-yarded the Dolphins 349-256 while holding Miami to just 74 rushing yards on 18 carries.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good.  St. Louis has scored 19 points or less in eight of their last eleven road games, and since they come in off a high-scoring overtime win, there’s a high probability that the Rams will have difficulty scoring in this game.  The total is posted at 41, and it is the lowest Over/Under this week along with the Texans/Panthers game.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, and since Washington is catching St. Louis at the perfect time, we’ll take the points with the Redskins on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

Arizona and Chicago both played in high-scoring games last week, and we expect a similar outcome in this game.  The Cardinals beat the Saints 31-19 after racking up 307 yards thru the air.  Arizona’s first team offense under Carson Palmer was exceptional in the preseason, and that carried over into Week 1.  Palmer threw 3 touchdown passes against the Saints while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt overall.  Lead running back Andre Ellington got hurt last week, and he will miss this game.  That means Arizona will be throwing the ball a lot more, and that’s not a bad thing, especially against a Chicago defense that gave up 78.3% completions on 8.2 yards per pass attempt to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers last week.  The Bears gave up 31 points in that game, and dating back to last season, Chicago has now allowed 119 total points in their last four home games.

Chicago’s offense played extremely well last week, and they will have success once again in this game on the Arizona defense.  The Bears scored 23 points on 402 yards of total offense despite quarterback Jay Cutler having a mediocre game.  He completed just 50% (18-36) of his passes while only averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  Chicago’s running game was fantastic as they gouged the Packers for 189 yards on the ground while averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Arizona’s defense was stout last season, but they’ve lost some guys and the unit will regress in 2015.  The Cardinals’ defensive line is the biggest concern as that group is a collection of castoffs and draft picks.  They held the Saints in check on the ground last week, but New Orleans has a terrible rushing attack.  Chicago’s ability to run the ball will expose the Cardinals’ defense because it will open up big passing plays down the field for Cutler.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Cardinals and Bears on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia got rid of three key players from last year’s 10-6 SU team.  Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin all departed.  And the Eagles replaced those guys with quarterback Sam Bradford and running back DeMarco Murray.  Philadelphia’s production should actually increase with the change of personnel this season, especially after seeing what the Eagles’ offense did in their preseason games last month.  They scored 36, 40, and 39 points in their first three games while Bradford completed 87% (13-15) of his passes for 156 yards.  Obviously preseason games are much different than regular season games, but they seem to correlate strongly with Chip Kelly coached teams.  In his two seasons in Philadelphia, the Eagles have scored 33 and 34 points in their season openers.  Kelly runs unique offensive schemes, and he’s usually one step ahead of opposing defenses, especially early in the season.

Atlanta parted ways with head coach Mike Smith after back-to-back losing seasons.  The Falcons made a shrewd hire in Dan Quinn who was Seattle’s defensive coordinator the past two seasons.  Quinn will turn Atlanta’s 26 points per game defense around eventually, but that unit will be in trouble tonight against the up-tempo Philadelphia offense.  The Falcons have offensive weapons all over the field, but 2014 was a lost season due to injuries.  Despite the injuries, Atlanta still scored 24 points or more in eight games last year.  When they were healthy early on, the Falcons scored 37 and 56 points in their first two home games.  With both offenses being the best units on the field, we expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Falcons on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total (Eagles/Falcons).

The New York Giants slogged thru a miserable 6-10 season last year; they were just 3-9 going into the last 25% of the season.  However, there are a lot of positive signs for the Giants, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  New York’s offense was simply awful early on as they were learning a completely new system.  But the Giants were explosive down the stretch, averaging 29.2 points per game over their last six games.  QB Eli Manning threw for 4,410 yards with a 30/14 TD/INT ratio.  The Giants’ offense has the potential to one of the best in the league this season, and they get a Dallas defense that will have a difficult time slowing them down.

Dallas will be playing a new style of football this season.  Running back DeMarco Murray left in free agency for rival Philadelphia, and his departure hurts in many ways.  Dallas led the league in time of possession because of their ability to run the football with Murray.  That limited the exposure of their defense, especially a weak secondary that gave up too many big plays.  But without Murray, the Cowboys will have to throw the ball a lot more now with quarterback Tony Romo.  Dallas will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game, especially since the Giants secondary has been depleted by injuries.  With both teams having strong passing attacks, the two offenses will be the best units on the field and that will result in a high-scoring game on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore returned to the playoffs despite 2014 being a year of adversity for the franchise.  First came the Ray Rice fiasco off the field, and then the injury bug swept thru the team, especially the defensive secondary.  Baltimore’s offense was the best in franchise history last season, but offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak left for the head job in Denver.  In steps Marc Trestman who flopped in Chicago, and his offensive schemes are totally different which means it will take time for the Ravens to be a consistent unit.  The Baltimore secondary is the unit that needs major fixing, and there’s a very good chance they get exploited in this game, especially if the Ravens fail to stop the dangerous running game of the Broncos.

Denver will begin the new season with a new head coach as former Baltimore offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, takes over.  Kubiak is quite familiar with the Broncos as he called plays in Denver for 11 seasons (1995-2005).  Denver’s offense shouldn’t skip a beat, and their rushing offense will be one of the best in the league, especially since they’ll be utilizing Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.  The running game will be ultra important because it will open up many big passing plays downfield for quarterback Peyton Manning.  Denver did not have that luxury last season, so defenses were able to play against the pass and make the Broncos a dink and dunk offense.  The Broncos’ defense shaved 3 points per game in 2014, and that unit should improve once again.  Denver has all of the advantages in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

New Orleans and Arizona have some major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Saints defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 26 points and 384 yards per game.  On the road last season, the Saints gave up 20 points ore more in six of their eight games.  That included games against woeful offenses like the Jets, Buccaneers, and Panthers.  If the preseason was any indication, the New Orleans defense will be even worse this season; they gave up 26, 27, 30, and 38 points in their four games.  Arizona’s defense was stout last season, but they’ve lost some guys and the unit is likely to regress in 2015.  The Cardinals’ defensive line is the biggest concern as that group is a collection of castoffs and draft picks.  That means Arizona is going from one of the best defensive lines in the NFL to one that is vulnerable, especially early in the season.

The Saints and Cardinals both possess potent offenses.  Arizona will go up and down the field on the awful New Orleans defense.  The Cardinals’ first team offense under Carson Palmer was exceptional in the preseason.  Palmer was terrific in camp, and the offense is looking for a breakout season in 2015.  “This year, we’re on the same page now, Andre Ellington said.”  Carson’s back. We have our leader back. When he’s out there, the offense is going smooth.”  New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is also playing fully healthy after dealing with nagging injuries all of last season.  The Saints averaged 25 points on 411 yards of offense last season, and the unit will be even better this year.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit had a phony winning season in 2014.  The Lions went 11-5 and lost a playoff game in Dallas.  Detroit regressed sharply on offense last season as they averaged 5 points per game less than they did in 2013.  Overall, the Lions scored just 20 points per game, and they actually scored less than their seasonal average in seven games.  Detroit’s offense was woeful on the road where they averaged just 16.1 points per game.  Five of the Lions’ wins last season came by 7 points or less, including three wins by 2 points or less.  Detroit’s defense was ranked #1 for the majority of last season as they only allowed 18 points per game.  However, the defense was much worse on the road where they gave up 21 points or more five times.  Detroit also lost their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, to the Dolphins, and that makes their stop unit much weaker coming into this season.

San Diego went 9-7 in 2014 for the second consecutive season, but last year did not result in a playoff appearance.  It was an impressive season for the Chargers considering the amount of injuries they had to deal with.  The Chargers’ offense was horrible down the stretch; they scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, all losses.  But again, injuries were the culprit.  San Diego’s window to win is now, and that starts in their season opener at home.  San Diego’s offense will be much more consistent as long as they stay healthy.  The Chargers’ defense will be the best they’ve had in quite some time.  They’ve been terrific throughout camp and in their preseason games, and the players have a lot of confidence coming into this season.  “I feel like we have a special unit,” Melvin Ingram said.  “Let the results speak for themselves.”  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015.  The Steelers went 11-5 in 2014, and six of their wins came by 8 points or less, including a pair of wins coming by exactly 3 points.  So that means more than half of their wins were close, and those close games tend to reverse the following season.  The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover.  Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams in 2014 despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season.  They gave up 30 points or more in four games, and they gave up 27 points or more in six games overall.  Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season simply by luck, but they’ll revert back to a non-playoff team in 2015.

New England comes in off a Super Bowl championship.  The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years, and in eleven of the last twelve years overall.  New England has simply been a dominant force in the NFL, and we expect that to continue, especially in tonight’s game against the overmatched Steelers.  Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game.  The Patriots have opened the season on the road in the last four seasons, so with this game being at home, we can expect a prime effort.  The last time the Patriots opened their season at home (2010), they walloped the Bengals 38-24.  New England will play with an “us against the world” mentality after getting slammed by the media for the recent “Deflate Gate” debacle.  The Patriots are simply the superior team in this matchup, so we’ll lay the points with New England, especially since they’ve won 10 of their last 15 regular season home games by 7 points or more.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight games; they are 11-1 SU over their last twelve games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent eleven wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just twice in those eleven games.  Seattle faced Aaron Rodgers in their last game, and with an injured calf, he had the Packers in front by 12 points (19-7) with just over two minutes to play, and that was on the Seahawks’ strong home field.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league in back-to-back games, and they won’t be so fortunate in the Super Bowl on a neutral field.

New England has an identical 14-4 record as Seattle, and both teams are 5-3 away from home this season.  One of the Patriots’ losses was in a throw away game in Week 17 when they pulled their starters early.  So in truth, the Patriots are 14-3 in meaningful games this season with one of those losses coming in Green Bay by just 5 points (26-21).  The Seahawks were just dominated on their home field by the Packers and a hobbled Rodgers, so it’s clear that the Patriots have played the better football this season.  New England’s offense is averaging 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but the Seahawks played an extremely weak group of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game this season.  The Patriots average 7.7 points per game more than the opponents Seattle faced, and since New England faced strong defenses all season, their offense holds a big edge over Seattle’s defense in this game.  We’ll back New England in Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday night.  

10* Play PATRIOTS.

Indianapolis’ win last week in Denver can easily be discounted.  The Colts simply beat a team with an old and injured Peyton Manning at quarterback while Denver was playing for a soon to be gone coaching staff.  While all of that is true, we were still impressed with the Colts in that game, and we fully expect them to give New England all they can handle in this game.  Indianapolis has already played the Patriots this season, and they lost 42-20 at home as a 3-point home favorite.  The Colts also played in New England in the playoffs last season, and they got crushed 43-22 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The past results certainly put some doubt into the Colts’ chances, but Indianapolis is simply playing too good right now to put much stock into the previous outcomes.  The Colts are averaging 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against defenses that are only allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

New England is 0-5 ATS in their past five AFC Championship game appearances.  They are not invincible, and that was clearly evident in their 35-31 win over Baltimore last week.  The Patriots trailed by 14 points twice in that game, so they were somewhat fortunate to win and move on.  New England wasn’t able to get much separation from their opponents down the stretch this season, and in fact, three of New England’s last four wins have come by single digits with the average margin of victory only being 4.7 points per game.  The Patriots’ defense gave up 31 points and 428 yards of offense to the Ravens last week.  Overall this season, New England is allowing 5.6 yards per play against offenses that are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  The Patriots’ defense is also dealing with injury issues at cornerback, and their best cover guy, Darrelle Revis, may be a step too slow to shutdown T.Y. Hilton if he has to cover him in this game.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the Colts plus the points in the AFC Championship on Sunday night.                    

9* Play COLTS (+).

Indianapolis’ offense has been terrific this season.  The Colts are averaging 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play overall.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against defenses that are only allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Colts will face a New England secondary that has injury concerns, and a secondary that allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown 40 touchdown passes while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season.

New England also has a strong offense, especially at home where they are averaging 33.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Patriots have had fantastic success running the ball on the Colts in the last two meetings.  New England ran for 480 yards on 90 carries while scoring 42 and 43 points in those two games.  Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has thrown 33 touchdown passes while averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  New England’s offense will score their share of points against an Indianapolis defense that is allowing 26.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  The weather forecast is calling for rain, but the temperature will be near 40 degrees, so it is unlikely to limit scoring.  The three head-to-head meetings between Andrew Luck and Tom Brady have soared Over the total (3-0) with combined scores of 83, 65, and 62 points.  We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Patriots in the AFC Championship game on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay didn’t play their best football last week, but the Packers did just enough to beat Dallas 26-21 and advance.  Dallas was a much better team than people realized, and Green Bay’s close game was expected as we had a selection on the Cowboys in that game.  Green Bay will now take to the road and play in Seattle for the second time this season.  The Packers were crushed 36-16 by the Seahawks in the season opener, and that result combined with Green Bay’s close call last week has inflated the point spread on this game.  My power ratings only make Seattle a 4-point favorite, so we are getting outstanding line value with the Packers in this game.  Green Bay is a very good team with a potent offense.  The Packers are averaging 30.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are on a current 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run and they are 10-1 SU during their past eleven games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent ten wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just once in those ten games.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and while Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled with his calf injury, he is still significantly better than the quarterbacks Seattle has faced.  Rodgers played extremely well last week with 316 passing yards (9.0 ypp) and a 3/0 TD/INT ratio.  This line is simply way too high, so we’ll take the points with Green Bay in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (+).

Indianapolis played their season opener in Denver on a Sunday night, and the Broncos won 31-24.  However, that game was not nearly as close as the 7-point margin suggests.  The Colts were dominated from the opening kick off; they trailed 24-7 at the half and 31-10 with just 8 minutes left to play.  Indianapolis scored two late touchdowns with one coming after a successful onside kick.  The Colts had an easy game last week at home against a shorthanded Cincinnati team that was missing four key starters in that game, two on each side of the ball.  Indianapolis is in for a much stiffer challenge in this game, especially since they have to take to the road and play outside in the cold, thin air, and altitude of Denver.  The Colts have been a much weaker team on the road this season; their defense gave up 28.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home.  Those poor numbers came against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Denver coasted down the stretch, and the Broncos used that time to get rested and healthy for the playoffs.  The Broncos are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season with seven of their eight wins coming by 7 points or more.  Denver’s offense has been unstoppable at home where they are averaging 35.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Those outstanding offensive numbers have come against a strong slate of defenses that only allow 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Denver’s offense torched the Colts’ defense in the first meeting, and there’s no reason they won’t do it again in this game.  Indianapolis played three playoff teams on the road this season, and the results were not pretty.  The Colts lost 31-24 in Denver, 51-34 in Pittsburgh, and 42-7 in Dallas.  We expect another blowout loss by Indianapolis, so we’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on late Sunday afternoon.               

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

Dallas didn’t play their best football last week, but the Cowboys did just enough to beat Detroit 24-20 and advance.  The Cowboys will now take to the road where they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, 41, and 24 points over their last five games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 28.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having the best season of his career as he led the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2) during the regular season.  Dallas also has a very good running game that is averaging 142.5 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  The Cowboys will have success on the ground against a Green Bay run defense that allows 4.3 yards per rush.     

Green Bay is a very good team, but we see the Cowboys and Packers much closer than the point spread indicates.  The Packers are a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home this season, so they’ve been tough on their home field.  However, four of their home wins did come by 10 points or less, including a pair of wins by 6 and 5 points.  Green Bay’s offense is potent, and there’s really no negatives to cite.  But quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury which may hinder his mobility some, and that may give Dallas a nice little edge.  Green Bay’s defense is prone to giving up points against good offenses; they allowed 36 points to the Seahawks, 44 points to the Saints, 21 points to the Patriots, and 37 points to the Falcons.  Dallas is much better than people realize, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Carolina comes into this game on a 5-game winning streak, but we fully expect their season to come to an ugly end on Saturday night.  The Panthers had a losing record in the regular season, and losing teams that make the playoffs tend to get blown out if they won their first playoff game.  Since 2002, there have been seven teams, including Carolina, to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse, and five of those teams won their first playoff game.  In their next playoff game, all five teams lost by 11 points or more with their average loss coming by 20 points per game.  Carolina faced a slew of dead teams down the stretch, and their win over Arizona last week was not impressive, especially since they failed to capitalize on the Cardinals’ atrocious play.  The Panthers’ offense is terrible, and we’ll be surprised if they score more than 10 points in this game.  In their last three games against Seattle, the Panthers have scored 9, 7, and 12 points.  All three of those games came in Carolina, and playing a playoff game in the toughest stadium in the NFL is going to be a nightmare for the weak Panthers’ offense.      

Seattle closed the season on a major roll; the Seahawks went a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS since November 23rd.  While the Seahawks did play a bunch of weak teams with weak quarterbacks in those games, they are facing the same situation in this game.  Seattle is the superior team across the board in this game, and their strength of running the ball will be too much for Carolina to stop.  The Seahawks averaged 172.6 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season.  They put those numbers up against a slate of defenses that only allowed 111.3 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Over the last month of the season, Carolina’s defense was gouged on the ground for 4.8 yards per rush while ranking 22nd in rush defense.  Seattle is 7-1 at home, and their last four home wins have all come by double digits, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Saturday night.           

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Detroit went 11-5 in the regular season with four of their five losses coming on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, 34-9 in New England, and 30-20 in Green Bay last week.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Dallas.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the two good offenses they faced; the Patriots scored 34 points and the Packers scored 30 points with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers.  Detroit gave up 53 first downs and 816 yards of offense in those games.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL.       

Dallas returns home off a 44-17 blowout win in Washington last week.  The Cowboys’ offense has been unstoppable lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, and 41 points over their last four games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging a whopping 29.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having his best season of his career while leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2).  The Lions’ secondary is awful, and they’ve already got torched by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the road this season.  Dallas is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play COWBOYS (-).

This is the rubber match between Baltimore and Pittsburgh after each team won on their hime field earlier this season.  The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-6 back in early September and the Steelers beat the Ravens 43-23 back in early November.  We expect tonight’s game to resemble the most recent meeting in Pittsburgh as the teams matchup well for a high-scoring game.  Baltimore’s offense hasn’t looked that good over the last three weeks as they scored just 53 total points.  However, the Ravens played three solid defensive teams, especially in the secondary.  Prior to those games, Baltimore’s offense scored 21 points or more in eight consecutive games while averaging 30 points per game.  Overall, the Ravens are averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season versus defenses that are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Baltimore will be facing a weak Steelers’ defenses in this game, so they are actually taking a step-down in class.               

Pittsburgh has been all offense and no defense this season, especially at home.  The Steelers’ defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on an ugly 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a slate of weak offenses that only average 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  In two meetings this season, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco completed 68.9% (51-74) of his passes against Pittsburgh for 469 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.  The Steelers’ offense has been fantastic at home this season where they are averaging 32.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Baltimore’s secondary is a complete mess, and they are taking a major step-up in class against Ben Roethlisberger after facing Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw over the last three weeks.  Big Ben carved Baltimore up at home this season when he threw for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Overall, the Ravens’ defense is allowing 24.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Saturday night.    

10* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati won a big home game on Monday night against the Broncos, and we expect the Bengals to carry momentum into this game in Pittsburgh.  This game is for the division title, so we expect a close game throughout.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home three weeks ago when the Steelers beat them 42-21 as 3-point underdogs.  That game setup perfectly for Pittsburgh, and we had a Best Bet winner on them, so we were not surprised by the outcome.  Cincinnati actually led 21-17 going into the fourth quarter, so the final score was not indicative of how the game played out.  The Bengals have a good defense, and it’s actually been better on the road this season.  Cincinnati is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  

Pittsburgh has won and covered their last three games, including their win in Cincinnati.  Their other two games were against the Falcons and Chiefs who have struggled recently, so it’s not like the Steelers have been beating the best teams.  Pittsburgh has been all offense and no defense this season, especially at home.  The Steelers’ defense is giving up 25.9 points per game on an ugly 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a slate of weak offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  The Steelers are just 3-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, so they’ve also failed to surpass point spread expectations.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati on Sunday night. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Detroit and Green Bay are playing for the division title, so we can expect a true to form game this afternoon.  The Lions are 11-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, and 34-9 in New England.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Green Bay.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in all three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the one good offense (Patriots) they faced.  Detroit gave up 29 first downs and 439 yards of offense in that game.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offense in the NFL.       

Green Bay returns home off back-to-back road games in which their offense scored a total of 33 points.  The Packers have been unstoppable at home this season, and we expect them to expose the Detroit defense in this game.  Green Bay is averaging a whopping 41.1 points per game on 7.0 yards per play at home this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Green Bay is throwing for an incredible 8.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season, so as mentioned above, the Lions are taking a major step-up in class in this game.  This is also a big revenge game for Green Bay after they lost 19-7 in Detroit earlier this season.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Packers, and Detroit scored on a fumble return and a safety in that game.  The Packers are the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (-).

Philadelphia has tanked down the stretch; the Eagles have lost three consecutive games and four of their last six games overall.  Last week’s loss in Washington knocked Philadelphia out of the playoffs, so today’s game in New York means absolutely nothing.  After winning four of his first five games, quarterback Mark Sanchez has reverted back to his old self.  Sanchez has played terrible football while failing to lead his team to any wins over the last three weeks.  And it doesn’t help that the Eagles’ defense has been torched for 89 points over the last three games.  Overall, the Philadelphia defense has been weak this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.     

The New York Giants are closing the season in the opposite way of the Eagles.  The Giants have won and covered their last three games while out-scoring their last three opponents by a combined score of 97-50.  Over their last five games, New York’s offense has averaged 29.8 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense will continue their strong play, especially in their home finale against an Eagles’ defense that is not in good current form.  This is also a big revenge game for the Giants after they got embarrassed 27-0 in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football earlier this season.  These two teams are coming into this game from opposite directions, so we’ll back the hot and confident New York Giants in this early game on Sunday.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Tonight’s game between Denver and Cincinnati has playoff implications, and because of that, we expect a low-scoring game.  The Broncos have changed their style of play in recent games as they’ve switched to running the football a lot more.  Denver is 4-1 to the Under over their last five games.  They went Over the total in all six of their previous games.  There are swirling rumors that Peyton Manning is not healthy, and his arm strength has decreased tremendously.  Denver has been cautious with Manning, and he’s only attempted 74 passes over the last three games.  There was some talk of resting Manning tonight as the Broncos only need to win one of their last two games to secure the #2 seed; they host the lowly Raiders next week.  Head coach John Fox is conservative, so we expect tonight’s game plan to be run heavy in order to protect whatever is ailing Manning.     

Cincinnati has also played in low-scoring games recently.  The Bengals are 5-1 to the Under over their last six games; they went Over the total in four of their previous five games.  Cincinnati’s offense has struggled against strong defensive teams this season, and overall the Bengals are only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Those poor numbers have come against defenses that are allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Bengals will face a very good Denver defense that is giving up just 21.6 points per game on 4.6 yards per play on the road this season.  Cincinnati’s defense has been good this season while allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Broncos and Bengals on Monday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Seattle is on a roll; the Seahawks have won and covered the spread in four straight games.  But let’s put those wins into perspective.  Seattle beat Arizona at home after coming off a road loss in Kansas City.  Then they won at San Francisco as road underdogs and at Philadelphia as 1-point favorites.  And then last week they beat the 49ers again in an ugly 17-7 defensive struggle.  Seattle got three total wins over the Eagles and 49ers, two teams that are struggling mightily right now; they are a combined 0-6 SU during their past six games.  The Seahawks are now the flavor of the month, and the line on tonight’s game is greatly inflated because of their recent results.  Seattle closed as just a 7.5-point home favorite when they played the Cardinals last month, but now they are laying more points against the same opponent on the road.

Arizona last played on a Thursday night, so the extra time off will help them, especially since Ryan Lindley is slated to start at quarterback.  The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season, so there’s a lot of value in getting more than a touchdown with Arizona in this game.  The Cardinals have a strong defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 15 points per game.  Arizona’s run defense has been terrific all season as they are allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  Seattle’s offensive line struggled in the first meeting as Russell Wilson got sacked seven times in that game.  The Seahawks lost their starting left tackle to injury in last week’s game, and his absence is a major loss.  Seattle has four losses on the season, and it’s interesting to note that Arizona is 5-0 SU against the teams that beat Seattle.  We’ll take the generous points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

The New York Giants have found a new life in recent weeks.  After losing three consecutive close games, including a blown 21-0 lead against Jacksonville, the Giants could have easily packed it in for the rest of the season.  But they didn’t, and they’ve won and covered their past two games.  The Giants out-scored their last two opponents by a combined score of 60-23.  Over their past four games, New York has averaged 28 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense should continue their strong play, especially since they’ll be indoors on a fast track against a Rams’ defense that has faced some of the worst passing offenses in the league over the last three weeks.  Prior to their past three games, the Rams’ secondary had allowed 958 passing yards during a three game span.

St. Louis comes in off an ugly 12-6 home loss to the Cardinals in their last game.  That was on a Thursday night, so the Rams do have some extra rest.  But considering the team isn’t going anywhere, that extra rest isn’t that meaningful.  St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the betting market because of their recent 4-game ATS winning streak before last week' loss.  The Rams had gone 3-1 SU in those games, but two of the wins came against a pair of terrible teams, the Raiders and Redskins.  St. Louis has a poor offense that has been terrible all season long.  The Rams are averaging just 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis has no business laying points into an offense that is better than their’s, so we’ll take the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Minnesota has certainly played better football since late October.  The Vikings are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS, but four of those games came at home.  Minnesota is just 1-2 on the road during their recent good run, including an 8-point loss at a terrible Chicago team.  The Vikings will be playing on a back-to-back road set after losing 16-14 in Detroit last week.  Minnesota was up 14-0 in the first quarter, and they failed to do anything over the final 45 minutes of the game.  The Vikings’ offense has been poor all season as they are only averaging 19.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have come against defenses that are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Minnesota is taking a big step-up in defensive class as the Dolphins are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  

Miami returns home off a 41-13 blowout loss in New England last Sunday.  That was Miami’s third loss over their last four games, but they lost to the Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens who are a combined 31-11 on the season.  We’re willing to forgive the Dolphins for those losses, and we expect a big effort in this home game.  Miami’s offense has played much better at home where they are averaging 24 points per game, and since they’ve scored 16 points or less in their last three games, we anticipate a breakout game against the Vikings.  Minnesota’s defense has been vulnerable on the ground all season; they’ve allowed 122 rushing yards or more in five of their last six games.  They’ve allowed that number in eight games this season.  Minnesota is a cold weather team that has played at home or in a dome over the last four weeks, so the heat and humidity of South Florida will be an issue on Sunday.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this early game on Sunday. 

9* Play DOLPHINS (-).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers are 3-2 with their two losses coming at home against the Patriots and Broncos who are a combined 22-6 on the season.  Going out on the road is a good thing for the Chargers right now, and we expect a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are taking a big step-down in class.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season.  The Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a San Francisco defense that is not in good current form right now.  The 49ers have allowed 5.9 yards per play over their last three games which is in sharp decline from their seasonal average of 5.3 yards per play. 

San Francisco has lost three consecutive games, and the wheels seem to be coming off this team.  The 49ers’ offense has struggled all season long, and their backfield is in flux with Frank Gore suffering a concussion last week and Carlos Hyde out of this game with an ankle and back injury.  Overall, San Francisco’s offense is averaging just 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a solid San Diego defense that is only giving up 21 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Chargers have a better defense than the average opponent San Francisco has played this season.  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Chargers in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Tennessee and Jacksonville are two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they come into tonight’s game with identical 2-12 records.  One of Tennessee’s wins came at home over Jacksonville; the Titans won 16-14 back in Week 6.  That was a phony win for Tennessee as they were thoroughly out-played by the Jaguars.  Jacksonville held a 27-14 first down edge while out-gaining Tennessee 379-290 in total yardage.  Jaguars’ quarterback Blake Bortles also out-played Titans’ quarterback Charlie Whitehurst by a substantial margin.  Bortles completed 32 of his 46 passes for 336 yards while Whitehurst completed 17 of his 28 passes for 233 yards.  Tennessee won because of a +2 turnover edge, but if the Jaguars hold onto the ball in this game, we expect a different outcome.    

Jacksonville is playing better football than people think, especially on defense.  Overall, the Jaguars rank 6th in the NFL with 38 sacks; they sacked Whitehurst three times in the first meeting.  Jacksonville has allowed just two passing touchdowns over their last three games, and that means it’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to move the ball with consistency in this game.  The Jaguars’ offense has scored just 25 total points in their last two games, but they actually have a good shot at breaking out tonight against a Tennessee defense that is giving up 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road this season.  This is Jacksonville’s final home game of the season, so we expect a strong effort and a comfortable win over Tennessee on Thursday night.  

10* Play JAGUARS (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off another baffling home loss, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game, especially since they are laying points on the road.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is deflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 5-8 record.  New Orleans is averaging 25.6 points per game on a strong 6.2 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 393 yards of total offense in ten of their thirteen games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in their last Monday night game against the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Chicago defense that is allowing 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Bears’ defense has given up 75 points and 871 yards of total offense in their last two games.

Chicago is in terrible current form; they are just 3-7 SU over their last ten games.  Chicago’s recent play suggests they’ve packed it in for the season, and tonight they will be without their best offensive player as Brandon Marshall was lost for the season last week.  The Bears’ offense has played below average football all season; Chicago averages just 20.2 points per game at home.  Chicago’s defense just can’t stop anybody, and they’ll be facing a strong New Orleans’ offense that is off their worst performance of the season when they only scored 10 points on 310 yards of offense last week.  The Bears have allowed 77.5% (55-71) pass completions for 595 yards on a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempts with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions over their last two games.  Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes this season.  New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees will have a monster game, and the Saints’ offense will be too much for the Chicago defense, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SAINTS (-).

Dallas is 3-1 since losing back-to-back home games at the end of October.  The Cowboys lone loss over their last four games also came at home.  That was a 33-10 embarrassment on Thanksgiving at the hands of Philadelphia.  The Cowboys certainly remember that terrible performance, and in an important game, we expect a strong effort tonight.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific on the road this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 148.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 69.1% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. 

Philadelphia is off a 24-14 home loss to Seattle.  The Eagles were atrocious in that game as they only had 139 yards of total offense.  Philadelphia’s defense was shredded for 440 yards by the Seahawks with 188 of those yards coming on the ground.  The Eagles have allowed 281 rushing yards over their last two games, and that’s not a good thing since they will be facing a strong Dallas rushing attack.  Overall this season, Philadelphia’s defense has played below average football.  The Eagles are giving up 23.8 points per game versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game.  Philadelphia will now face a Dallas offense that is scoring 9.6 points per game more than the average Eagles’ opponent this season.  The Cowboys also hold a significant scheduling edge for this late in the season as they last played on a Thursday night, giving them a few extra days to get ready for this game.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Philadelphia’s offense has been terrific at home this season, but they scored just 14 points on 139 yards of offense last week.  The Eagles are averaging 33.4 points per game on their home field this season.  Overall, Philadelphia’s passing attack is averaging 270.3 yards per game on 6.9 yards per pass attempt.  The Eagles will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  Philadelphia scored 33 points on 464 yards of total offense against the Cowboys’ defense on Thanksgiving, so another strong offensive showing is expected.

Dallas also has a strong offense, especially on the road where they are averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 148.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 69.1% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  The Cowboys will have a lot of success against a Philadelphia defense that has played below average football this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Eagles on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland beat Kansas City as 7-point home underdogs three weeks ago on a Thursday night.  That was the Raiders first win of the season, and they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl.  Kansas City felt disrespected by the extended celebration, and they finally get the chance to atone for that loss.  After that win over Kansas City, the Raiders got crushed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week.  Off that embarrassment, the Raiders beat the 49ers 24-13 as 8.5-point home underdogs last week.  So Oakland has alternated wins and losses over their last three games with both wins coming on their home field.  Despite the recent wins, the Raiders are still a horrible team.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those numbers are even worse on the road where they are averaging an anemic 11.4 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Kansas City’s loss in Oakland started their current 3-game losing streak.  The Chiefs also lost to Denver and Arizona, but those losses can be excused.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 127.8 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that has allowed 264 rushing yards over their last two games.  Kansas City’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this season.  Those numbers have come against defenses that are only giving up 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oakland’s defense has given up 27.3 points per game on the road this season.  The Chiefs’ defense has been strong at home, allowing just 17.7 points per game this season.  Kansas City is the superior team and playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday.  

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

We cashed a Best Bet winner on Pittsburgh going against Cincinnati last week, but we’re going to back the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.  The Steelers were in a terrific bounce back spot while holding some nice matchup edges.  Cincinnati fits that profile for this game.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot after losing 42-21 at home last week.  That was a bad spot for the Bengals after returning home off a 3-game road winning streak and facing a potent Pittsburgh passing attack that was in good form.  Things get much better and much easier for the Bengals in this game against the Browns.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home on a Thursday night when the Browns beat them 24-3 as 6-point underdogs.  The Browns were in much better form then as they were 4-1 over their previous five games before playing the Bengals.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-3 record over their last four games.  

Cleveland comes in off a demoralizing 25-24 home loss to the Colts last week.  The Browns gave up the winning touchdown with just 32 seconds left to play after blowing a 21-7 lead.  The Browns are now desperate, and that’s evident by the fact that they will start rookie QB Johnny Manziel in this game.  Manziel will be facing a good Cincinnati defense off a terrible performance, so his task will be difficult.  The Bengals’ defense is only allowing 20.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Despite scoring 25 points last week, the Browns’ offense only mustered 248 yards of total offense; they benefitted from 4 Indianapolis turnovers.  Cincinnati has been significantly better than Cleveland over the last four games as the Bengals are +6 in point differential while the Browns are -31 in point differential.  Cincinnati is the better team, and since they are playing with strong motivation, we’ll back the Bengals in this game on Sunday. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 10-3 overall while riding a 5-game winning streak.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last three games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last three wins have come by an average of just 4.7 points per game, and two of those games were at home.  Green Bay is just 3-3 on the road this season with two of those wins coming by 3 points apiece.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are allowing 26.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play to opponents who average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Buffalo is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Bills come in off a 24-17 loss in Denver, and a return home will bring out Buffalo’s best effort, especially since this is their final home game of the season.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific this season.  The Bills are giving up just 18.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo’s pass defense is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  The Bills have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers have been weaker on the road this season.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay as they are playing an out of conference opponent on the road after playing at home on Monday night.  We’ll take the points with Buffalo in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BILLS (+).

Arizona began the season at 9-1, but they’ve gone just 1-2 SU over their last three games.  Both of those losses came on the road, and we expect that trend to continue tonight.  The Cardinals were dealt a big blow when quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season with a knee injury.  Drew Stanton has been terrible in Palmer’s place, leading the Cardinals to just two touchdown drives over the last 15 quarters.  The Cardinals’ offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 17 points or less in four consecutive games.  Arizona’s struggles will continue tonight against a St. Louis defense that is playing their best football of the season; the Rams come in off back-to-back shutouts.

St. Louis is playing much better football now than they were earlier this season.  The Rams have won three of their last four games while holding their opponents to a total of 7 points in those three wins.  St. Louis’ defense has been fantastic, recording 34 sacks since Week 7.  The Rams’ defensive line is a nightmare match-up for a weak quarterback like Drew Stanton, especially since he’s been playing poorly.  Arizona won the first meeting 31-14, but Carson Palmer played in that game and the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns.  St. Louis held the Cardinals to just 28 rushing yards in that game, so this game is going to be on Stanton’s shoulders.  St. Louis is simply playing better football right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Atlanta has played much better football recently as they are 3-1 SU over their last four games.  The Falcons were dreadful early in the season as they went just 2-6 SU over their first eight games.  Atlanta’s first five losses of the season all came by 10 points or more, but their last two losses have come by just 1 and 2 points.  Despite the poor start to the season, Atlanta’s offense has played above average football overall.  The Falcons are averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta’s defense has also improved significantly as they’ve held four of their last five opponents to 22 points or less.  The Falcons gave up 24 points or more in six of their first seven games. 

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 9-3 overall, including a perfect 6-0 at home.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last two games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last two wins have come by an average of just 4 points per game; they beat the Vikings 24-21 and the Patriots 26-21.  Green Bay is now a double digit favorite for the first time this season, and they are laying those points into an Atlanta team that is in tremendous current form.  The value is clearly on the Falcons side, so we’ll take the big points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

New England comes in off a loss in Green Bay last Sunday, so we can expect a bounce back effort in this game.  The Patriots’ offense played one of their worst games of the season as they scored just 21 points on 320 yards of total offense.  New England’s offense is too good to play another clunker.  The Patriots are averaging 31.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against defenses that are only allowing 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England will be facing a San Diego defense that has allowed 23 points or more in six of their last seven games.  The Chargers gave up 28 points or more in four of those games, and they allowed 33 points or more in three of those games.  The San Diego defense is not in good current form at all, and the Patriots’ offense will take full advantage of that.   

San Diego comes in off a momentum-building 34-33 win in Baltimore.  The Chargers scored the winning touchdown with just 38 seconds left to play.  Off such a win, we expect San Diego to come with another solid effort, especially in a spotlight home game against one of the best teams in the league.  The Chargers’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 61 points on 850 yards of total offense in their last two games.  San Diego will be facing a New England defense that is allowing 24.8 points per game and 5.8 yards per play on the road against offenses that are averaging 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Chargers’ offense averages 25.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Chargers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Jacksonville.  The Texans played their best game of the season last week when they crushed the Titans 45-21.  Houston put-up 457 yards of total offense in that game while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Fitzpatrick was pulled earlier this season for ineffectiveness, and he was only playing last week because Ryan Mallett got hurt.  That was Houston’s second blowout of Tennessee as they won the first meeting 30-16.  Last week was an abnormal game for the Texans’ offense considering they only average 23.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against defense that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston has virtually no shot in matching last week’s production, and the line is grossly inflated because of their recent results.  

Jacksonville is quietly playing better football as the season goes on.  The Jaguars are off a 25-24 comeback home win over the Giants last week.  That win created a lot of momentum for Jacksonville, especially since they will be playing at home once again this week.  The Jaguars’ defense has played significantly better at home this season.  Jacksonville is giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on their home field.  Overall, Jacksonville is allowing 27.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The numbers clearly show a big difference, and Jacksonville will be facing a below average offense that is off a season-best performance.  The Jaguars’ defense has a solid situational edge, and since Houston has been an underdog in four of their six road games this season, we’ll take the points with Jacksonville in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Tampa Bay has played excellent football since their bye despite going just 1-5 SU.  The Buccaneers out-gained four of their six opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in five of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against a weak Detroit offense that is only averaging 19.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Lions have put-up those terrible offensive numbers against defenses allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.       

Detroit is off a 34-17 home win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day.  But that win means absolutely nothing since it came against the lowly Bears who just got blown out at home on Thursday by the Cowboys.  The Lions were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game after back-to-back road losses in which their offense scored a total of 15 points.  Detroit’s best offense comes from their passing game, but Tampa Bay’s defense is built to stop the pass, and their secondary has been terrific recently.  The Bucs have held their last six opponents to 280 passing yards or less, and they’ve held their last four opponents to 212 passing yards or less.  Tampa Bay has ten losses on the season, but eight of those losses have come by 10 points or less.  We’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a home loss to New Orleans last week.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Saints in that game as we felt it was a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s defense.  That’s not the case in this game, as Cincinnati does not possess the type of potent offense that gives the Steelers’ defense trouble.  Pittsburgh has played better football in the second half of the season.  Prior to last week’s loss, the Steelers were 4-1 over their previous five games with their lone loss coming in a terrible spot against the Jets.  Pittsburgh’s momentum was halted as they went into last week’s game off their bye.  The Steelers are now in a much better situation to bounce back with a strong performance, especially since this is an important division game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has played above average football this season as they are averaging 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 24 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cincinnati is off an impressive 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS road trip.  The Bengals played three consecutive games away from home, and since they had success, there’s a good shot they come into this game overconfident.  Cincinnati’s play has actually gotten worse despite the recent positive results, and they were underdogs in two of their last three games.  Overall, the Bengals’ offense has played below average football this season.  Cincinnati is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has actually played better on the road where they are holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game compared to their overall season average of 24.8 points per game.  This isn’t the best of situational spots for the Bengals, so we’ll take the points with Pittsburgh in this early game on Sunday.  

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Carolina was in a prime situational and scheduling spot for their game in Minnesota last week, and the Panthers failed to show up in a 31-13 loss.  That poor effort is an indication that Carolina has quit on the season; they’ve lost six consecutive games.  The Panthers’ losses have been ugly, especially on the road.  Carolina lost by 21 points at Green Bay, 24 points at Philadelphia, and 18 points at Minnesota.  Now they must play on the road for a second consecutive week, and do so against one of the best offenses in the league.  Carolina’s defense has been atrocious on the road all season as they are giving up 33.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have actually come against a slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.   

New Orleans came thru with a nice win for us last week, and we’ll come right back and play them again this week.  New Orleans is just 5-7 on the season, and they’ve lost their last three home games.  This is a huge game for the Saints, and we expect them to bring one of their best efforts of the season.  New Orleans is averaging 26.9 points per game on a strong 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 11.4 points per game more than teams New Orleans has been facing.  New Orleans beat Carolina 28-10 earlier this season; the Saints put-up 375 yards of offense despite playing on the road just four days after beating the Packers on a Sunday night.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Dallas and Chicago both played last Thursday, so this somewhat of a normal week for both teams.  The Cowboys’ offense was terrible last week as they scored just 10 points on their home field.  Dallas has a strong offense that is averaging 25.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 144.9 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  The Cowboys’ offense will bounce back strong tonight, especially since they will be facing a poor Chicago defense.  The Bears are giving up 28.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Chicago is also off a terrible offensive game as they scored just 17 points on 269 yards of total offense.  The Bears will bounce back with a much better performance tonight, especially since their strength is throwing the football.  Chicago will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.9 yards per pass attempt.  Dallas has given up 536 passing yards to the Giants and Eagles over the last two weeks.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Dallas secondary that is in terrible current form.  Chicago has thrown for 250 yards or more seven times this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Bears on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami comes into this game off a 39-36 loss at Denver last Sunday.  The Dolphins’ defense was gashed for 450 yards in that game, and it was easily their worst performance of the season.  The terrible defensive outing wasn’t much of a surprise since they were playing an elite offense in Denver.  However, the Dolphins are also dealing with a slew of injuries to their defense, and they have cluster injuries to their linebackers and secondary.  Miami’s defense is extremely vulnerable right now, and if the Jets’ offense is ever going to breakout, tonight is the game.  New York is reinserting Geno Smith at quarterback after their failed experiment with Mike Vick.  This is a huge game for Smith as he is basically playing for his career.  He gets a Miami defense missing a lot of players, so Smith gets the perfect opponent to play against.  The Jets’ offense was absolutely terrible last Monday night when they scored just 3 points on the Bills.  Prior to that game, New York had scored 20 points or more in three of their previous four games, so they are more than capable of scoring points in this game.  

New York’s defense is a mess, so Miami’s offense will also score their share of points in this game.  The Dolphins have scored 22 points or more in seven of their last eight games, so they are in good offensive form.  Overall, the Dolphins are averaging 25.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New York’s defense is giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Jets have allowed 24 points or more in nine of their last ten games, including four of their last five home games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Jets on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver does not come into this game in the best of current form.  The Broncos have alternated wins and losses over their last five games while going just 1-3 ATS over their last four games.  Denver lost 22-7 to St. Louis, and that’s simply an ugly loss not matter what excuses you can make for the Broncos.  Denver was also fortunate to win at home last week over the Dolphins after Miami built a 28-17 lead going into the fourth quarter.  There’s something amiss right now with the Broncos, and that has been clearly evident over their last few games.  Things will not get easier tonight in Kansas City against a team that knows them well and plays a stye of football that beats the Broncos.  The Denver defense has been one of the best in the NFL, but their recent drop in play has changed their numbers drastically.  The Broncos are now allowing 25 points per game on the road against offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game.

Kansas City has a huge scheduling advantage for this game.  The Chiefs last played on a Thursday night, so they’ve had a mini bye of sorts.  Head coach Andy Reid is one of the best at getting his team ready off a break, and since the Chiefs are coming in off an embarrassing loss in Oakland, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  Kansas City’s offense has been fantastic at home this season where they are averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Chiefs have a terrific running game that is gaining 135.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, and their ability to run the ball and control the clock is the exact formula to beat Denver.  The Broncos have been gouged on the ground in their last two games, allowing 228 rushing yards to the Rams and Dolphins.  This is a good spot for Kansas City, especially since they are catching a vulnerable Denver team at the perfect time.  We’ll back the Chiefs in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play CHIEFS (+).

Carolina has been a huge disappointment this year after making the playoffs last season.  The Panthers come into this game in Minnesota with a poor 3-7-1 record.  However, the Panthers are fresh off their bye, and this is the game they will bring their best effort.  Carolina has played a brutal schedule so far this season with games against the Lions, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, and Eagles.  All seven of those teams will likely be in the playoffs this season, so there’s reason to excuse Carolina’s poor record.  The Panthers’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, but again, they’ve played all of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL.  Carolina’s defense will get a much needed class relief in this game against a Minnesota offense that is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.      

Minnesota is off a close 24-21 home loss to the Packers last Sunday.  The Vikings were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game as they were catching Green Bay off a string of outstanding performances.  The Vikings couldn’t pull out the win, and that will have them playing with a hangover in this game.  Minnesota’s defense is allowing 25 points per game at home this season, so the Panthers’ offense will be able to move the ball with consistency.  Carolina’s offense scored 35 points on Minnesota last season as quarterback Cam Newton completed 20 of his 26 passes for 242 yards with 3 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Minnesota has been underdogs in ten of their eleven games this season, and in the one game they were favored, they lost 17-3 at home to the Lions.  We’ll take the points with Carolina in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PANTHERS (+).

New Orleans comes into this game off three consecutive home losses, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is inflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 4-7 record.  New Orleans is averaging 26.2 points per game on a strong 6.3 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 396 yards of total offense in nine of their eleven games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in Monday night’s loss to the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers’ defense has been even worse at home where they are giving up 26.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh is fresh off their bye, but the week off did not come at the best time.  The Steelers were in good form as they had won four of their five games going into the week of rest.  Pittsburgh’s momentum has been interrupted, and that’s not a good thing, especially when facing a potent offense like the Saints.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been extremely vulnerable against the pass this season; the Steelers are allowing opponents to throw for 242.4 yards per games on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  That defensive weakness will face the offensive strength of the Saints as they throw for 308.8 yards per game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  New Orleans is a strong 5-2 ATS as a road underdog going back to last season based on the posted spread for this game, including 1-0 this season when they lost 24-23 at Detroit.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (+).

Cincinnati is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game after winning back-to-back games SU as underdogs.  Cincinnati is now laying more than a field goal into an out of conference team, their second straight NFC opponent.  The Bengals will return home after this game to host divisional opponent Pittsburgh, and then they’ll hit the road once again to face another divisional opponent, the Cleveland Browns.  Cincinnati’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against opponents who allow 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals’ offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 17.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.         

Tampa Bay is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Cincinnati.  The Buccaneers come in off a misleading 21-13 loss in Chicago; Tampa Bay out-yarded the Bears 367-204 in that game.  Since their bye, the Buccaneers have played good football despite going just 1-4 SU.  Tampa Bay out-gained four of those five opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in four of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against the weak road offense of the Bengals as mentioned above.  This is simply a bad spot for Cincinnati, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers have won back-to-back games since their week off; they lost three straight games going into their bye.  San Diego has thoroughly out-played their last two opponents while out-gaining them by a combined 710-550 and out-scoring them 40-30.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season despite dealing with multiple injuries to their running backs.  Overall, the Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a Baltimore defense that is giving up 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens gave up 525 yards of total offense on a whopping 8.0 yards per play to the Saints last week. 

Baltimore is off a big 34-27 win in New Orleans on Monday night.  The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match that performance, especially on a short week.  Baltimore’s offense has actually underperformed at home this season.  The Ravens are averaging 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; overall they average 26.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  San Diego’s defense has been pretty good all season as they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This isn’t the best of scheduling spots for the Ravens after going into last week’s primetime game in New Orleans off their bye and winning outright as underdogs.  We’ll take the points with San Diego in this early game on Sunday.  

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

Seattle comes into this game with a 7-4 SU record after beating Arizona 19-3 on Sunday.  The Seahawks have played much better football than a team with 4 losses would suggest.  Seattle ranks #6 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing just 19.2 points per game and 5.2 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that are averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense will be a stern test for San Francisco’s offense considering the 49ers have faced a weak group of defenses that are giving up 23.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

San Francisco is off another pedestrian win after beating Washington 17-13 on Sunday.  The 49ers only beat the Giants 16-10 the week before despite owning a +4 turnover margin.  Over their past four games, the 49ers have benefitted from 11 turnovers by their opponents yet they lost a game and won the others by just 6, 3, and 3 point margins.  San Francisco’s offense has not played good football at all this season.  The 49ers are averaging just 20.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  And as noted above, San Francisco has played weak defenses.  The 49ers will now face a Seattle defense that is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the 49ers have faced.  Seattle is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Seahawks in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Philadelphia’s offense has been terrific all season, and the Eagles have not skipped a beat with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.  Philadelphia has scored 30 points ore more in seven of their eleven games this season; they’ve scored 20 points or more in every game.  Overall, the Eagles are averaging 31.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Philadelphia’s passing attack has been virtually unstoppable while averaging 293.1 yards per game on 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  The Eagles will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.  Dallas gave up 328 passing yards to the struggling Giants last week, so the Eagles will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.     

Dallas also has a strong offense that is averaging 26.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 149.6 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 68.8% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt.  The Cowboys will have a lot of success against a Philadelphia defense that has been shredded on the road this season.  The Eagles are giving up 30.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home.  We expect both offenses to go up and down the field in a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Cowboys on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago has won back-to-back games after suffering thru a 3-game losing streak.  The Bears have some confidence now, and since they win with their offense, we expect another strong performance in this game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Detroit secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Lions have allowed 655 passing yards in their last two games; the Bears have thrown for 250 yards or more six times this season.  In their last two games, Detroit’s defense allowed 6.1 and 6.0 yards per play.  On a short week, the Lions have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Detroit’s defense in this game.

Detroit’s offense has struggled recently, scoring just 35 total points over their last three games.  But the Lions were playing three strong defenses as the Cardinals rank #5, the Dolphins rank #6, and the Patriots rank #10 in defensive efficiency metrics.  Detroit gets a huge defensive class relief in this game as the Bears rank #23 in defensive efficiency.  Overall, the Bears’ defense is allowing 27.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Chicago’s defense has been even worse on the road where they are allowing 31.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Bears and Lions on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they’ll be ready for a good performance, especially since they are just 1-2 in their past three games.  The Ravens have played good offense all season as they’ve scored 21 points or more in eight of their ten games.  Overall, Baltimore is averaging 26.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Ravens’ offense has been slightly better on the road where they are averaging 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore will have offensive success in this game against a poor New Orleans defense that is allowing 25.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that only average 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

New Orleans is just 4-6 on the season, and the Saints come into this game off back-to-back home losses.  The Saints lost both of those games because of poor offensive execution, especially in their last game when they scored just 10 points on the Bengals.  New Orleans had just 330 yards of total offense in that game, and they scored points on just one of their three trips inside the red zone.  The Saints are desperate for a win, so we expect their offense to come out firing from the start tonight.  New Orleans will score their share of points on a Baltimore defense that is giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  In their past two road games, the Ravens gave up a total of 70 points to the Bengals and Steelers.  The Saints’ offense is significantly better than both of those two teams.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Saints on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Dallas comes into this game off their bye, so they’ll be ready with a strong performance.  The Cowboys already beat New York 31-21 earlier this season, and there’s no reason Dallas shouldn’t match that offensive production.  The Cowboys racked up 423 yards of total offense in that game with 156 of those yards coming on the ground.  Dallas will run all over the Giants once again, especially since they’ve allowed 498 rushing yards in their last two games.  New York has given up 156 rushing yards or more in four of their last five games.  Overall, the Dallas offense is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

New York’s offense has struggled recently, scoring just 27 total points over their last two games.  But the Giants have hurt themselves with turnovers; they had 8 in those two games.  Prior to that, the Giants averaged 25 points per game over their previous six games.  New York also has a history of offensive success against Dallas as they’ve scored 73 points on the Cowboys in their last three meetings.  While we expect offensive success tonight by the Giants’ offense, we also expect their defense to give up a lot of points.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is allowing 26.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  New York has allowed 400 yards or more in six games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Giants on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 27-7 home loss to Tampa Bay.  The Redskins went into that game off their bye, so the loss was even more embarrassing.  The best thing for Washington is to get out on the road, and get away from all the distractions.  The Redskins are in a good spot to bounce back with a strong effort today.  Washington’s defense has allowed just 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Redskins also have a strong run defense that is allowing just 101.8 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  That defensive strength will be a huge factor in this game, especially since the 49ers’ best offense is their ability to run the football.

San Francisco is off a pedestrian 16-10 win over the Giants last week.  The 49ers should have won that game much more decisively since they had 5 interceptions in the game.  San Francisco’s offense generated very little against a bad New York defense; the 49ers had just 333 yards of total offense despite holding the ball for over 34 minutes.  Over their last three games, the 49ers have a +5 turnover margin yet they own wins of just 6 points and 3 points (in overtime).  San Francisco is not blowing teams out right now, and there’s no way they should be laying more than a touchdown into any team, especially considering how bad their offense has played this season.  The 49ers’ offense is averaging just 21.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Since four of San Francisco’s six wins have come by 6 points or less, we’ll take the generous points with Washington in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Arizona has the best record in the NFL at 9-1.  However, that record is phony as the Cardinals have not played remotely close to an elite level.  Arizona ranks just 15th overall in efficiency metrics with the #23 offense and #6 defense.  The Cardinals’ offense is even worse now that Drew Stanton is playing for the injured Carson Palmer.  In their 14-6 win over Detroit last week, the Cardinals were shutout in three quarters while only gaining a total of 352 yards of offense.  Stanton and the Cardinals must now take to the road and play in the toughest stadium in the NFL against a Seattle team that is coming off a loss.  Arizona’s defense has been worse on the road this season where they are allowing 21.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play compared to their seasonal numbers of 17.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Seattle comes into this game with only a 6-4 record, and because of that, the Seahawks appear to have regressed from last season.  However, Seattle ranks #7 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks will come with a strong effort after losing in Kansas City last week.  Seattle has played above average football on both sides of the ball.  The Seahawks’ offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 5.2 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been even better at home this season where they are only giving up 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense has been atrocious on the road as they are only averaging 4.9 yards per play, and most of those games were with Carson Palmer.  Seattle is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

St. Louis was in a terrific scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Denver last week.  The Rams were catching Denver on their third consecutive road game while the Broncos were also off a 24-point win in their game before.  The Rams took advantage of a disinterested Denver team and won 22-7.  That was not a true result considering the significant difference between the Rams and Broncos.  But off that win, St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the pointspread, especially since they are an underdog of less than a touchdown.  In their last three road games, the Rams were underdogs of 7, 7.5, and 10.5 points.  Overall, St. Louis has underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Rams’ offense is averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses allowing 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is allowing 25.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.            

San Diego is 6-4 on the season, including a 4-1 record at home.  All four of their home wins have come by 7 points or more.  San Diego is playing their second consecutive home game since their bye, so they’ve been basically home for the whole month of November.  To compare, St. Louis will be playing their fourth road game over the last five weeks.  That’s a huge scheduling edge in favor of the Chargers.  San Diego’s defense has been dominating at home this season.  The Chargers are only giving up 12.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 21.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Rams’ offense has been awful on the road as they are only scoring 16.2 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with San Diego in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Green Bay looks like one of the best teams in football.  The Packers have steamrolled their last two opponents, Chicago and Philadelphia, by a combined score of 108-34.  However, both of those games came at home and now they must take to the road and lay more than a touchdown into a division opponent that is looking for some revenge after a 42-10 loss in Green Bay earlier this season.  The Packers were in a great spot for that win over Minnesota as they were catching the Vikings just four days after their 41-28 upset win over the Falcons.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season in allowing 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play to opponents who average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Minnesota is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Vikings come in off a 21-13 loss in Chicago, and a return home will bring out Minnesota’s best effort.  Overall, Minnesota’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Vikings are giving up 22 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota’s pass defense is allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  The Vikings have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers are just 2-3 SU on the road this season with one of those wins only coming by 3 points.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay, so we’ll take the generous points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Detroit is quietly having a good season.  The Lions come into this game with a 7-3 record with one of those losses coming at the 9-1 Cardinals.  That loss came last week in Arizona when Detroit was in a very difficult situational spot after three straight comeback wins.  The Lions still only allowed 14 points on 352 yards of total offense last week.  Detroit’s defense has been fantastic this season, and in fact, the Lions rank #1 in defensive efficiency metrics.  Overall, the Lions are giving up just 15.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New England is on a roll as they’ve won six straight games while going 5-1 ATS.  However, this is a major flat spot in the Patriots’ schedule, and we do not expect one of their best performances.  New England went into last week’s primetime game in Indianapolis off their bye, and they blew out the Colts 42-20 as 3-point underdogs.  They beat Denver 43-21 in their game before the bye, and next week they are playing at Green Bay.  The Patriots’ offense will be taking a big step-up in class against Detroit’s defense, especially since the Lions allow 7.3 points per game less than the defenses New England has faced this season.  The Patriots’ defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play, so the Lions’ offense will have success moving the ball.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive underdog in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play LIONS (+).

Kansas City is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.  The Chiefs have won and covered five consecutive games since their bye, and there’s no reason their streak won’t continue tonight in Oakland.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 140 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that is in terrible current form.  Oakland has allowed 335 rushing yards on 83 carries over their last three games.  Overall, Kansas City’s offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.   

Oakland is still winless on the season; the Raiders come into this game with an 0-10 record.  The Raiders are simply a horrible team, and tonight’s match-up is a terrible one for them.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those weak numbers have come against poor defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.  Kansas City has a strong defense that is only allowing 17.1 points per game this season.  The Chiefs have not allowed a rushing touchdown all season, and overall they’ve given up just 16 touchdowns in ten games.  Kansas City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off an ugly 20-13 loss at the New York Jets last Sunday.  That flat performance was expected after the Steelers played three straight games in which they scored 30 points or more.  Despite the bad situational spot, Pittsburgh still moved the ball quite well against a decent Jets’ defense.  The Steelers’ offense will move the ball efficiently in this game as Tennessee owns the second worst rush defense in efficiency metrics.  Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball will only open things up downfield for QB Ben Roethlisberger who is having a terrific season.  Over his last four games, Roethlisberger has completed 72.8% of his passes while averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt with 15 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.     

Tennessee is just 2-7 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  The Titans will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback for the third time this season, and he should have his best game against a poor Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt, so he’s capable of putting up some good numbers.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.3 yards per rush this season.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 4.4 yards per rush, so the Titans should move the ball consistently in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Titans on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

New England and Indianapolis both come into this game off a bye, so the teams will be fresh and ready to go.  The Patriots’ offense has been in tremendous form during their past five games as they’ve scored 27 points or more in every game while averaging a whopping 40.2 points per game during that span.  Overall, New England is scoring 31.2 points per game this season.  Quarterback Tom Brady is having a fantastic season, and over his past five games, he has completed 67.5% (133-197) of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 18/1 TD/INT ratio.  New England’s defense is giving up 25.7 points per game on the road this season despite playing poor offensive opponents like the Dolphins, Vikings, and Bills.

Indianapolis is averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Colts have put those numbers up against defenses that allow just 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Indianapolis has scored 24 points or more in eight of their nine games this season, including 33 points or more in five games.  The Colts’ defense has been below average this season as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play against offenses that average just 5.8 yppl overall.  Brady will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a weak 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  Primetime NFL games are now 24-7 Over the total this season, and with two strong quarterbacks facing two suspect defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Colts on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia lost quarterback Nick Foles to a broken collarbone two weeks ago against Houston.  And at that time, it appeared to be a bad thing for the Eagles.  However, in two games, Mark Sanchez actually looks like a better fit for Chip Kelly’s offense.  Sanchez is averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and his ability to get out of the pocket much quicker than Foles makes Philadelphia’s offense more difficult to contain.  Sanchez will face a mediocre Green Bay defense that is allowing 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Eagles’ offense averages 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play, so they are significantly better than the average team Green Bay has faced this season.

Green Bay is coming off a 55-14 blowout win over the Bears last Sunday night.  The Packers went into that game off a bye and also off a loss, so they were primed for a big effort.  Off that 41-point win in which the Packers racked up 451 yards of total offense, there’s a good chance of regression in this game today.  The Packers’ biggest wins this season have come over some bad teams like the Bears (twice), Vikings, Jets, and Panthers.  Green Bay is just 1-3 SU in their other four games with the lone win coming by just 3 points (27-24) over the Dolphins.  The Eagles are 7-2 SU on the season, and they have a strong defense that ranks #5 against the run and #9 against the pass in efficiency metrics.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the Eagles plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Cincinnati is off an ugly 24-3 home loss versus Cleveland on Thursday night ten days ago.  The Bengals played a horrendous game as they had just 165 yards of total offense.  Off that humiliating performance, we expect Cincinnati to bounce back with a strong effort in this game.  Quarterback Andy Dalton was terrible as he completed just 30.3% (10-33) of his passes for an embarrassing 86 yards with 3 interceptions.  That was Dalton’s second awful performance of the season; he completed just 47.4% of his passes in a 27-0 loss to the Colts.  After that game, Dalton bounced back with a strong performance, completing 75% of his passes in a 27-24 win over the Ravens.  Cincinnati’s offense will be facing a poor New Orleans’ defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

New Orleans comes in off a tough 27-24 home loss in overtime versus San Francisco.  The Saints had that game won, but they allowed the 49ers to convert on a long 4th down play that extended the game.  Favorites off an overtime loss are a poor play in the NFL, and the Saints fit that role today.  New Orleans must lay big points into the Bengals who are off an ugly performance with extra time to prepare; this is a scheduling situation that definitely favors Cincinnati.  The Saints certainly have a strong passing offense, but the Bengals have a strong pass defense that is ranked 8th in efficiency metrics.  Cincinnati is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt versus offenses that are averaging 6.9 ypp this year.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot while the Saints are in bad situational spot, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play BENGALS (+).

Seattle comes into this game with a 6-3 SU record, and they blew out the Giants 38-17 last Sunday.  The Seahawks are a strong team once again this year as they rank #4 in overall efficiency metrics despite having three losses on the season.  The Seahawks have some momentum after three straight wins, including back-to-back games in which they scored 30 and 38 points.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play versus defenses allowing just 5.8 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is permitting only 5.1 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been terrific over their past three games while giving up just 16.7 points per game.

Kansas City has been good since their bye; the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS over their past four games.  But the Chiefs have played nothing in terms of competition with wins over the Chargers, Rams, Jets, and Bills.  Kansas City is taking a major step-up in class for this game, and it’s not the best of scheduling spots either.  After this non-conference game against Seattle, the Chiefs will play a pair of divisional games against the Raiders and Broncos.  The Chiefs need to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Seattle has a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to just 79.8 yards per game on an impressive 3.2 yards per rush.  The Seahawks have held 7 of their 9 opponents to less than 110 yards on the ground this season.  We’ll take the points with Seattle in this early game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Buffalo and Miami both come into tonight’s game off losses, but of the two, the Dolphins are in the better spot to bounce back with a strong effort.  The Bills were in a prime scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Kansas City last week.  Buffalo was fresh off their bye and they were catching the Chiefs in a terrible spot.  The Bills played a terrible game, and they were still in position to win, but they blew a 13-3 lead with just over 18 minutes left to play in the game.  Buffalo had 3 turnovers and QB Kyle Orton played awful, driving for just one touchdown.  Orton will face one of the best defenses in the NFL tonight, and there’s no reason to expect him to play any better.  Over the last month, Miami’s defense has limited opposing quarterbacks to 58% completions (76-131) on just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  The Dolphins have 13 sacks and 7 interceptions while allowing just 4 touchdown passes over that span.   

Miami was in a tough spot for their game last week in Detroit.  The Lions were fresh off their bye while the Dolphins were off their 37-0 win over the Chargers.  Despite that, Miami led 16-13 before Detroit scored the game-winning touchdown with just 29 seconds left to play.  The Dolphins were in a flat spot, and their on-field production showed that as they gained just 222 yards of total offense, including an ugly 50 yards on the ground.  Those totals were both season lows, but we can excuse that since Detroit owns the #1 defense in the NFL.  Miami averages 128 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush, so we expect a strong performance on the ground tonight.  Buffalo’s rush defense has been leaking as they’ve given up 127, 175, and 158 yards on the ground over their last three games; they held their previous six opponents to 86 yards or less.  Miami is also playing with revenge after losing 29-10 in Buffalo back in Week 2.  We’ll lay the points with the Dolphins in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play DOLPHINS (-).

Carolina has a big scheduling advantage for this Monday night game in Philadelphia.  The Panthers are on a mini bye of sorts as they last played on Thursday, October 30th.  Carolina has had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Eagles just played last Sunday.  The Panthers also come into this game off an ugly 28-10 home loss to the Saints, so they will be ready and bring a much better effort for this spotlight game.  Carolina has played a brutal schedule this season against strong passing offenses; the Panthers have faced teams ranked 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 10th.  But they get a class relief in this game against an average Philadelphia passing attack that ranks just 14th in efficiency metrics and is now playing with a backup quarterback.  The Panthers’ defense will have a better showing tonight because they are simply facing a less explosive offense.

Philadelphia lost quarterback Nick Foles to a broken collarbone in their game last week against Houston.  That didn’t matter as backup quarterback Mark Sanchez led the Eagles to a 31-21 win.  Sanchez came off the bench and completed 68.2% (15-22) of his passes for 202 yards and 2 touchdown passes.  However, the Panthers now have time to prepare for Sanchez, so the backup QB comes into this game in a different situation, and it’s likely he will regress off that performance.  Sanchez has known all week that he will start this game, and this simply causes a player and team to play much differently than when thrown into the middle of a game.  The Eagles’ offense was into their mid-season flow with Foles, and that has been interrupted.  Philadelphia’s defense also lost their leader, linebacker DeMeco Ryans, to a season-ending injury.  His absence makes the Eagles vulnerable in the middle of the field, and since Carolina has a mobile quarterback in Cam Newton, the Panthers own a nice hidden match-up edge tonight.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take Carolina plus the points on Monday night.   

10* Play PANTHERS (+).

Chicago comes into this game in Green Bay off back-to-back blowout losses.  However, the Bears have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and since they are also playing with revenge from a 38-17 home loss to Packers back in Week 4, we expect Chicago to bring their best effort.  That 21-point loss was a misleading final score as the Bears actually out-gained the Packers 496-358, including a whopping 235-56 yardage edge on the ground.  Green Bay has a mediocre defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play to opponents that average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears’ offense averages 5.8 yards per play, so they are better than the average team Green Bay has faced this season.

Green Bay is also coming off a loss in their last game, and they are also coming off their bye week.  However, the situation is different for the Packers because they already beat Chicago and they did not figure to win their last game in New Orleans.  The Packers’ week off didn’t come at the best of times while Chicago desperately needed some time off.  Green Bay’s biggest wins this season have come over some bad teams like the Vikings and Panthers.  The Packers only beat the Jets by 7 points and the Dolphins by 3 points, so they really haven’t been a dominant team.  This is a divisional game, and aside from the 21-point margin in the first meeting, the last three games between the Bears and Packers were decided by 8 points or less.  We expect a closer game this time, so we’ll take the Bears plus the points on Sunday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

The New York Giants were in a terrific scheduling and situational spot for their Monday night home game against the Colts.  The Giants went into that game off their bye, and since they lost back-to-back division games prior to their week off, New York figured to bring their best effort.  The Giants did exactly the opposite and played a terrible game and lost 40-24 in a game that was worse than the 16-point defeat looks.  Now the Giants must take to the road and travel cross country and play on a short week in Seattle who owns the best home field advantage in the NFL.  New York had no time to fix their problems, and since they are besieged with injuries, this game against the Seahawks looks hopeless for the Giants.  Overall, New York has played below average football on both sides of the ball.  The Giants’ offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Giants’ defense is allowing 6.4 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.9 yards per play.            

Seattle comes into this game with only a 5-3 record, and because of that, the Seahawks appear to have regressed from last season.  However, Seattle ranks #4 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks have some momentum after back-to-back wins, including last week’s 30-point performance.  Seattle has played above average football on both sides of the ball.  The Seahawks’ offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 5.1 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.8 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been even better at home this season where they are only giving up 4.8 yards per play.  New York’s offense has been atrocious on the road as they are only scoring 20 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Seattle in this late game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

This is perhaps the biggest sharp/square divide game this year as the general public and recreational players are heavy on the Steelers, while the professional bettors and sharp money is on the Jets.  Pittsburgh comes into this game off back-to-back huge performances.  The Steelers beat the Colts and Ravens by a combined score of 94-57.  The Steelers racked up 1,015 yards of total offense with an incredible 843 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 75.6% (65-86) of his passes with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers cannot play any better than that, and since they are now on the road and laying points, we expect a sharp regression.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been terrible this season as they are giving up 24.3 points per game on an ugly 6.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging only 23.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Steelers played in a very physical and emotional-draining game last Sunday night versus their division rival Baltimore, and this is simply a major letdown spot today for Pittsburgh.

New York has not won a game since their season opener when they beat Oakland 19-14.  The Jets are just 1-8 on the season, but they get a tremendous setup for this game.  The Jets will start Mike Vick at quarterback once again.  Vick moved the Jets’ offense up and down the field in Kansas City last week while completing 21 of his 28 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown.  Despite their terrible record, the Jets’ defense has actually played respectable football as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  New York is only allowing 88.4 rushing yards per game on just 3.5 yards per rush.  Pittsburgh is simply in a terrible spot, and since we do not expect the Steelers to match their performances of the the last two weeks, we’ll take the home underdog in this early Sunday afternoon game.

10* Play JETS (+).

Kansas City has been good since their bye; the Chiefs are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS over their last three games.  Kansas City won an important divisional game in San Diego, and then won two home games by a combined score of 58-17.  Now the Chiefs must take to the road and play a non-division opponent.  This is not a good scheduling and situational spot for Kansas City, especially since they host Seattle next week followed by a pair of divisional games.  The Chiefs need to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Buffalo has a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to just 92.5 yards per game on an impressive 3.5 yards per rush.   

Buffalo comes into this game off their bye, so they will be the much fresher team.  The Bills are 5-3 on the season, and winning home teams in this price range have been a long-term profitable angle in the NFL.  Buffalo has already faced two of the best defenses in the league, and the Bills won both of those games.  They won 17-14 in Detroit, and they beat Miami 29-10 at home.  Buffalo will face a mediocre Kansas City defense that has played worse on the road this season.  The Chiefs are giving up 3 points more per game overall (20.2-17.2) while allowing opponents to average 5.7 yards per play.  The Kansas City offense has also underperformed on the road, averaging just 5.3 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.7 yards per play.  This is a bigger game for the Bills, and since they are in the better situational and scheduling spot, we’ll take Buffalo in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play BILLS.

Tennessee is just 2-6 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  Tennessee lost four games to the Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Browns who own a combined 23-12-1 record this season.  The Titans come into this game off their bye, so they are a fresh team playing with motivation.  Tennessee will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback for the second time this season, and with the extra time to prepare, he will be more effective in this game.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.4 yards per rush this season, so Mettenberger won’t be forced to win this game solely thru the air.  Tennessee’s defense is better than their raw numbers indicate; the Titans have 8 interceptions and 23 sacks on the season, and they’ll be facing a fatigued and shorthanded Ravens team.

Baltimore comes in off a brutal game in Pittsburgh last Sunday night.  That was a physical game from start to finish, and it took something out of Baltimore.  The Ravens are off back-to-back divisional road games, and since they have their bye on deck, this is an easy game for Baltimore to go thru the motions.  The Ravens’ offense is averaging 26.7 points per game this season, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing defenses that are allowing 24.7 points per game as a group.  Despite playing weak defenses, Baltimore is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Tennessee’s defense is giving up 5.6 yards per play versus offenses averaging 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore is simply in a terrible spot, so we’ll take the generous points with Tennessee in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play TITANS (+).

Cleveland has been a surprise team in the NFL this season.  The Browns come into this game with a 5-3 SU record and 4-2-2 ATS record.  However, four of their wins have come at home and they are just 1-2 on the road.  Their lone road win in Tennessee was a miraculous one as they trailed 28-3 before coming back and winning 29-28.  They also trailed in Pittsburgh 27-3 before rallying to make it a close 30-27 final.  The Browns got blown out 24-6 in Jacksonville.  So in their three road games, the Browns were losing by 18 points or more at one point.  Cleveland’s last two wins have come against Oakland and Tampa Bay who are a combined 1-15 SU on the season.  The Browns are taking a major step-up in class for this game in Cincinnati, especially since the Bengals have righted their ship with back-to-back wins.  Cleveland’s running game has struggled since starting center Alex Mack broke his leg.  Over the past three weeks, the Browns have a total of 158 rushing yards.  The Browns have little firepower in the passing game, especially with Jordan Cameron missing games due to a concussion.  Cleveland will have a hard time moving the ball consistently in this game tonight.

Cincinnati is starting to play better football now that quarterback Andy Dalton is getting his receivers back on the field.  The Bengals have won back-to-back home games after a 3-game losing streak.  Cincinnati’s offense has been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals will face a poor Cleveland defense that is allowing 27.3 points per game on 6.5 yards per play in their three road games this season.  The Browns have given up 24 points or more in every road game while allowing an average of 412 yards per game.  Cincinnati’s defense is significantly better, especially at home where the Bengals are only allowing 20.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Cincinnati has their confidence back with their recent play, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play BENGALS (-).

Indianapolis opened the season with back-to-back losses before running off five straight wins and pointspread covers.  The Colts’ streak came to an end last week when they were crushed 51-34 in Pittsburgh.  We expect Indianapolis to falter once again as they are simply not as good as they appeared during their 5-game winning streak.  The Colts’ defense has been atrocious on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in three of their four games.  Overall, the Colts are allowing 31.7 points per game on an ugly 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that are only averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.        

New York is in a tremendous scheduling spot for this game.  The Giants come into this game fresh off their bye week, and since they went into that extra week off back-to-back losses, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Giants have played much better at home than on the road this season; they are 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming against Arizona after blowing a lead.  The Giants’ offense is averaging 24.7 points per game at home this season, and they will have success against the poor Indianapolis defense.  Quarterback Eli Manning is completing a career-high 69.4% of his passes this season with a strong 14/5 TD/INT ratio.  Manning will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a terrible 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  The Giants are primed for a big performance, so we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Monday night.      

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Indianapolis has played four road games this season, and all four of those games have gone Over the total.  Those games had 55, 61, 61, and 85 points scored, all of which would have easily gone Over tonight’s posted total.  The Colts are averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  They’ve scored 24 points or more in seven of their eight games, including 33 points or more in three of their four road games.  The Colts’ defense has been atrocious on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in three of their four games.  Overall, the Colts are allowing 31.7 points per game on an ugly 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that are only averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.        

New York is in a good scheduling spot to score a lot of points.  Home underdogs coming off a bye week have historically played in high-scoring games.  It makes sense because since they are getting points at home, the road team is perceived to be better and the home team uses the extra prep time to focus on their offense knowing they have to score points in order to win the upcoming game.  The Giants’ offense is averaging 24.7 points per game at home this season, and they will have success against the poor Indianapolis defense.  Quarterback Eli Manning is completing a career-high 69.4% of his passes this season with a strong 14/5 TD/INT ratio.  Manning will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a terrible 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season. We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Giants on Monday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

This will be the second meeting of the season between Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-6 in the first meeting, and there’s no reason they won’t beat them again in this game on Sunday night.  That first game could have been more of a blowout than it was as Baltimore only scored two touchdowns on six trips inside the red zone; they settled for four field goals of 30 yards or less.  Baltimore comes into this game off a 27-24 loss in Cincinnati, so they will be ready to bounce back strong.  The Ravens also came off a loss to the Bengals prior to their first game with the Steelers, so they are in a familiar spot.  Baltimore’s defense has been terrific this season as they are only allowing 16.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 23.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.            

Pittsburgh comes in off a huge performance against the Colts last week.  The Steelers won 51-34 after racking up 639 yards of total offense with an incredible 522 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 81.6% (40-49) of his passes with 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers cannot play any better than that, and since they are taking a huge step-up in defensive class, we expect a sharp regression.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been terrible this season as they are giving up 24.5 points per game on an ugly 6.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Baltimore’s offense is averaging 27.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play, and we’ve already seen them go up and down the field on the Steelers’ defense this season.  Baltimore is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play RAVENS (-).

Denver is the best team in football by a wide margin.  The Broncos have the #1 rated offense and the #2 defense in efficiency ratings, and a team hasn’t been ranked that high on both sides of the ball since 2007 when the Patriots went a perfect 16-0 in the regular season.  Denver is the superior team in this matchup as New England only ranks #11 on offense and #22 on defense in efficiency.  The two teams played twice last season with both teams winning on their home field.  Denver led 24-0 at the half in New England before losing 34-31 in overtime, and that game is one the Broncos haven’t forgotten about.  Overall this season, the Broncos are averaging 32 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents allowing 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New England’s defense has been below average as they are giving up 22.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 21 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.        

New England comes into this game off a perfect performance.  The Patriots beat the Bears 51-23 after racking up 487 yards of total offense.  Quarterback Tom Brady was flawless as he completed 85.7% (30-35) of his passes for 354 yards with 5 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  That big win was preceded by two division wins and a 43-17 thumping of the Bengals.  The Patriots have won four consecutive high-scoring games, but they are now taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Denver in this game.  Despite their gaudy offensive numbers, the Patriots are only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play this season.  Denver’s defense is holding their opponents to 20.3 points per game on just 5.0 yards per play.  The Patriots have looked good against a slate of bad opponents, but reality will set in versus Denver in this game.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos as they are simply the superior team on both sides of the ball.      

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

New York has not won a game since their season opener when they beat Oakland 19-14.  The Jets are just 1-7 on the season, but this is a good situational spot for them to play a competitive football game.  The Jets will start Mike Vick at quarterback, and the change will provide a spark to a team in desperate need of something to get them going.  Getting out of New York is also beneficial to this team, and a road game is definitely what they need right now.  Despite their terrible record, the Jets’ defense has actually played good football as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.7 yards per play.  The Jets possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  New York is only allowing 85.4 rushing yards per game on just 3.3 yards per rush.  New York’s ability to play stout run defense will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Kansas City is not in the best of scheduling spots for this game against the Jets.  The Chiefs went into their bye off a loss in San Francisco.  After their week off, the Chiefs won a divisional game in San Diego as 3-point underdogs.  Kansas City followed that win with a 34-7 blowout of the Rams last week.  Now the Chiefs have to lay significant points into a desperate non-divisional opponent that holds a key match-up edge against them.  Kansas City needs to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Overall, the Kansas City offense has played average football as they are averaging 5.5 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.5 yards per play.  This is a game that is much more important to the Jets, and since they hold a situational, scheduling, and match-up edge, we’ll takes the points in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play JETS (+).

New Orleans comes into this game off their big 44-23 home win over Green Bay on Sunday night.  The Saints must wheel back and take to the road on a short week.  Bad situational spots hinder defenses the most, and since the Saints’ defense is bad to begin with, we expect them to give up a lot of points in this game.  New Orleans is allowing 26.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints’ defense has been even worse on the road where they are giving up 31.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Carolina’s offense is taking a big step-down in defensive class after facing the Seahawks, Packers, Bengals, and Ravens’ defenses in recent weeks.      

Carolina’s defense is nothing like they were last season when they had one of the league’s top stop units.  This season, the Panthers have the #28 defense in efficiency ratings.  Overall, Carolina is giving up 26 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus opponents only averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Drew Brees lit the Panthers up last season even though Carolina had an elite defense; Brees completed 69.8% (60-86) of his passes for 594 yards and 5 touchdown passes.  The Panthers have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season, and they will play this game without a starting cornerback and their safety is a game-time decision.  The two offenses are definitely the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Panthers on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game in Dallas off a confidence-building 19-17 win over Tennessee last Sunday.  The Redskins were mired in a 4-game losing streak, so a win was certainly needed.  Washington received a boost from quarterback Colt McCoy when he replaced the ineffective Kirk Cousins.  The Redskins responded to McCoy as he completed 11 of his 12 pass attempts for 128 yards and one touchdown thru the air.  McCoy will start once again tonight, so we expect Washington to carry some momentum into this game.  Washington’s defense has played well this season as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Redskins also have a strong run defense that is allowing 103.3 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush.  That defensive strength will be a huge factor in tonight’s game, especially since the Cowboys have morphed into a run heavy offense this season.  

Dallas lost their season opener, but they’ve won six consecutive games since.  The Cowboys  comes into this game off five straight big wins, and they are simply ripe for a letdown, especially since they are laying double digits into a divisional opponent.  The Cowboys trailed the Rams 21-0 before coming back for a 34-31 win.  After that game, Dallas crushed the Saints on Sunday night football.  Then they beat Houston in overtime, and then won in Seattle.  Last week, Dallas won their first division game when they beat the Giants 31-21.  Now the Cowboys are a facing another divisional opponent, yet they are laying double digits despite being in a terrible situational spot.  Dallas’ defense has been poor as they are giving up 6.2 yards per play to opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys have been favored in just three of their seven games this season by margins of 1.5, 5, and 4.5 which makes tonight’s posted line greatly inflated.  We’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

Green Bay comes into this game off four consecutive wins and spread covers, including last Sunday’s 38-17 blowout of the Panthers.  The Packers are now in a difficult scheduling spot as they must take to the road and play in one of the toughest venues in the NFL.  This is an easy game for the Packers to overlook since they have their bye on deck.  Green Bay was in a prime scheduling spot for their home game against Carolina as the Panthers were playing back-to-back road games after just playing 5 quarters against the Bengals the week before.  Green Bay is 2-2 on the road this season, but they really should be 1-3 and possibly even 0-4.  They won in Miami after scoring a touchdown with just 6 seconds left to play in the game.  The Packers other road win came in Chicago despite losing the first down battle 33-21 and getting out-yarded 496-358.       

New Orleans will play just their third home game of the season after playing on the road in four of their six games.  And since this is a spotlight game versus a name opponent, we expect the Saints to bring their best effort in this game, especially since they are off a loss.  New Orleans’ offense has been good this season, especially in their two home games.  The Saints are averaging 28.5 points per game versus opponents allowing 24.1 points per game.  Overall, the Saints are averaging 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Green Bay’s defense has been poor on the road where they are giving up 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  New Orleans is in a good situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Saints in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Philadelphia is fresh off their bye, so we can expect a strong effort in this game.  The Eagles’ offense is terrific, and with an extra week to prepare, head coach Chip Kelly will unveil some unique and tricky plays in this game.  When coming off their bye last year, the Eagles scored 24 points in three quarters against the Cardinals.  Philadelphia is averaging 30.5 points per game against defenses that allow 25 points per game this season.  Arizona’s defense is giving up 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 5.8 yards per play on the season.  Philadelphia will move the ball consistently on the Cardinals just like they did in last year’s game.

Arizona’s offense has been good under quarterback Carson Palmer this season.  In his three starts, Palmer has completed 66.1% (74-112) of his passes while averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt.  Palmer has thrown 6 touchdown passes and just 1 interception on the season.  He will face a poor Philadelphia defense that has allowed 13 touchdown passes this season; the Eagles only have 3 interceptions.  Against the one potent offense they faced this season, Arizona gave up 41 points and 568 yards of total offense to the Broncos.  Arizona’s last home game versus Washington had a total of 50 points scored, and since they are playing a much more explosive offense in Philadelphia, we expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston will play their second consecutive road game, and it comes on a short week after playing in Pittsburgh on Monday night.  This will also be the Texans’ fifth road game over the last seven weeks, so this is simply a terrible scheduling spot for Houston.  The Texans have lost three straight games and four of their last five games overall.  Houston blew a 13-0 lead on Monday night, and tough games proceeded that.  Three weeks ago, the Texans lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas.  Two weeks ago, the Texans trailed the Colts 24-0 at the end of the first quarter before making a big comeback and falling short 33-28.  And after last week’s blown lead, the Texans will be playing with a hangover against the Titans.  Houston is 3-4 on the season, but the Texans are actually 1-6 in the stats this season, being out-gained by six of their seven opponents in total yardage.

Tennessee is just 2-5 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  Tennessee has lost to the Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Browns who own a combined 17-8 record this season.  The Titans also lost to the Redskins last week, but that defeat only came by 2 points (19-17).  Tennessee will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback in this game, and he should shake the offense up.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.5 yards per rush this season, and they’ll be facing a poor Houston rush defense that is allowing 4.3 yards per rush.  Tennessee’s defense is in good form as they’ve held their last two opponents to 19 and 14 points.  The Titans have 8 interceptions and 18 sacks on the season, so they’ve played good defense.  We’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Sunday.       

10* Play TITANS (+).

Atlanta is a complete mess right now, and this trip to London is not going to make things any better.  The Falcons have lost four consecutive games both SU and ATS, and their roster has been decimated by injuries.  Atlanta’s biggest area of concern is on their offensive line where they just lost their starting center last week after losing a pair of starters over the previous couple of weeks.  The Falcons will have to start an undrafted rookie free agent at center, and that is the worst possible situation against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  Atlanta’s offense is in terrible form because of the line woes, and quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked ten times over the last three games.  Ryan has only completed 61.1% (77-126) of his passes on a weak 6.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three games.  Atlanta also owns one of the worst defenses in the league.  The Falcons are giving up 28.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents that are averaging 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.    

Detroit comes in off a confidence building win in their last game.  The Lions scored a touchdown with just 1:48 left to play to beat the Saints 24-23.  With five minutes left in the game, Detroit trailed 23-10.  Teams often carry over momentum off such a win, and with Detroit facing a struggling opponent, we certainly expect that to be the case.  The Lions have the best defense in the NFL; they’ve held all seven opponents to 24 points or less.  Overall, Detroit allows just 15 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus opponents averaging 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  This is a game in which the two teams are heading in opposite directions as the Lions are 4-1 over their last five games while the Falcons are 1-4 over their last five games.  Detroit is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this early NFL kick off on Sunday morning.      

9* Play LIONS (-).

San Diego comes into this game off a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City on Sunday.  The Chargers were not in the best of spots for that game as they were coming off a comeback road win in Oakland while the Chiefs were fresh off their bye.  San Diego will be focused tonight since they are playing off a crucial divisional loss, especially since this is another divisional game.  San Diego has hung tough versus the Broncos over their last few meetings.  The Chargers are just 1-3 SU over the last four meetings, but their three losses have all come by 8 points or less.  San Diego has the right formula for being competitive against Denver; the Chargers play ball control offense and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  In their last two regular season games, San Diego held the ball for over 38 minutes in each game, resulting in Denver scoring no more than 28 points.   

Denver was fantastic in their 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers on Sunday night.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Broncos in that game, so their big win was expected.  Peyton Manning broke the TD passing record in that game, and off such a big performance, we can expect some regression tonight, especially against a tough divisional opponent.  The Broncos’ offense will face a San Diego defense that has contained them well over the last few meetings, and a defense that is only giving up 16.3 points per game this season.  Denver has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 24 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Broncos are in a bad situational spot against a tough match-up while taking a step-up in class.  We’ll take the points with the San Diego in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play CHARGERS (+).