Houston comes into this Monday night game in Pittsburgh off back-to-back tough games.  Two weeks ago, the Texans lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas.  Last week, the Texans trailed the Colts 24-0 at the end of the first quarter before making a big comeback and falling short 33-28.  While they do have some extra time to prepare for this game, the Texans are not in a good situational spot at all.  Houston is 3-3 on the season, but the Texans are actually 0-6 in the stats this season, being out-gained by all six opponents in total yardage.  Houston’s three wins this season have come against the Redskins, Raiders, and Bills who are a combined 6-14 on the season.     

Pittsburgh was humiliated in their last game in Cleveland; the Steelers lost 31-10 after beating the Browns in 20 of their previous 22 meetings.  The Steelers return home for just their third game of the season after playing four of their last five games on the road.  Pittsburgh is in a good spot to bounce back strong, especially on their home field in front of their fans.  Prior to their poor performance in Cleveland, the Steelers’ offense was in good current form as they had scored 78 points over their previous three games.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 72.6% (77-106) of his passes with 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions in those three games.  Houston’s defense has been poor on the road this season as they are allowing 6.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is in a good spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers on Monday night.

10* Play STEELERS (-).

San Francisco comes into this game off three consecutive wins and spread covers, including Monday night’s 31-17 win in St. Louis.  The 49ers are now in a difficult scheduling spot as they must take to the road on a short week and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The 49ers virtually had no prep time for this game, and since they are off a divisional win and now playing an out of conference opponent, this is an easy game to overlook, especially since they have their bye on deck.  San Francisco was in prime scheduling spots for their recent home games against the Eagles and Chiefs, yet they were only able to win those games by 5 points apiece.  San Francisco’s offense has underperformed this season as they are averaging 5.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Overall, the 49ers are only averaging 23.5 points per game, and they’ve scored 28 points or less in five of their six games this season.  

Denver will play the first of only two home games over a 6-week stretch.  And since this is a spotlight game versus a name opponent, we expect the Broncos to bring their best effort in this game.  Denver’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 72 points over their last two games.  Quarterback Peyton Manning completed 53 of his 80 passes for 716 yards with 7 touchdown passes in those two games.  Denver’s offense has been incredible at home this season.  The Broncos are averaging 32 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 22.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Denver is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

The New York Giants come into this game in Dallas off an embarrassing 27-0 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday night.  Off such a humiliating performance, we certainly except the Giants to bounce back with their best effort.  Prior to that loss to the Eagles, the Giants were playing good football as they went into that game on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak.  Quarterback Eli Manning was thriving in the new offense prior to last week’s clunker; completing 69.1% (94-136) of his passes with a 10/3 TD/INT ratio over his previous four games.  Manning will face a Dallas secondary that has only faced two good passing offenses in their six games.  Despite that, the Cowboys are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season. 

Dallas comes into this game off a huge upset win in Seattle last Sunday.  The Cowboys closed as 10-point underdogs in that game, so the win was certainly unexpected.  Dallas has played in four straight high intensity games that have them set for a letdown.  The Cowboys trailed the Rams 21-0 before coming back for a 34-31 win.  After that game, Dallas crushed the Saints on Sunday night football.  Then they beat Houston in overtime, and last week they won in Seattle.  Now the Cowboys are a facing a familiar divisional opponent, and they are laying close to a full touchdown.  Under Jason Garrett, Dallas is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS based on the posted line at home against the Giants over the last three years.  Their lone win only came by 5 points, and since the Cowboys were never higher than a 4.5-point home favorite over New York in those games, there’s some good value on the Giants in this game.  Dallas is not as good as their 5-1 record indicates, so we’ll take the points with New York on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Jacksonville.  Two weeks ago, the Browns came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 in Tennessee.  Last week, the Browns crushed Pittsburgh from the opening kick en route to a 31-10 win.  Off back-to-back big wins, Cleveland is in a major letdown spot, especially since they have to go on the road and lay a handful of points into an out of division opponent.  Cleveland also has to replace their starting center, Alex Mack, who is out for the season after breaking his leg in last week’s game.  Mack is Cleveland’s best lineman, and his absence is a major loss for the Browns.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible as they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Browns have no business laying this many points on the road, even against a team like the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is starting to play better football now that quarterback Blake Bortles is playing.  The Jaguars have been a competitive bunch recently, and they finally get an opponent they match up well against at home.  Jacksonville won 32-28 in Cleveland last season, so they know they can play with the Browns.  These next two games are ultra important for the Jaguars because they come on their home field before hitting the road for likely losses against the Bengals and Cowboys.  Jacksonville’s defense has been stout over the last two weeks as they held the Steelers and Titans to just 33 total points.  With Cleveland off two consecutive emotional wins and Jacksonville gaining confidence with their recent play, we’ll take the points with the Jaguars in this game on Sunday.     

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

After winning their season opener against Oakland, the New York Jets have lost five consecutive games.  However, the Jets have played a brutal schedule with games against the Packers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, and Broncos.  All five of those teams have strong passing offenses, and since the Jets’ weakness comes in the secondary, their opponents held a big advantage.  The Jets’ defense is not nearly as bad as they’ve looked, and we’re willing to look past their recent results.  New York is actually taking a big step-down in class tonight against the New England offense.  The Patriots have scored 80 points in their last two games, but those were outlier performances that came after New England scored a total of 30 points in their previous two games.  The Patriots’ offense is not nearly as good as they’ve looked over the last two weeks, and their passing game has been poor all season.  Quarterback Tom Brady has completed just 62.5% of his passes this season while throwing to a mishmash group of receivers.  With the season-ending injury to RB Stevan Ridley last week, New England’s offense has to be reconfigured, and that’s extremely difficult to do on a short week. 

New York’s offense has been woeful this season.  The Jets have scored 24 points or less in all six games, including 19 points or less in five of their six games.  Overall, the Jets are only averaging 16 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Things won’t get any better against a good New England defense that is allowing just 21.5 points per game this season.  In two home games, the Patriots have given up a total of 26 points.  Quarterback Geno Smith has been terrible while only completing 57.1% of his passes on 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  Smith is close to being replaced by Mike Vick, but he’s old and never was much of a passer.  New York will pound the ball on the ground in order to shorten the game and stay competitive.  Since recent results have inflated this total a couple of points, we’ll take the Under between the Jets and Patriots on Thursday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

San Francisco comes in off back-to-back home wins over the Eagles and Chiefs.  The 49ers caught both teams in terrible spots, yet San Francisco was only able to beat Philadelphia by 5 points (26-21) and Kansas City by 5 points (22-17).  Now they are heading out on the road and laying a field goal into a desperate divisional opponent that is sure to bring their best effort.  Unlike their last two games, the 49ers are now the team in the bad scheduling spot while their opponent has the situational edge.  San Francisco’s offense has underperformed this season as they are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Overall, the 49ers are only averaging 22 points per game, and they’ve scored 28 points or less in all five of their games this season.  

St. Louis was projected to be a sleeper team in the NFC West this season.  But obviously that hasn’t been the case since the Rams come into this game with a 1-3 record.  The Rams are playing their first divisional game of the season, and they are also playing their first home game since September 21st.  St. Louis also had a bye prior to their last game, so they are a fresher team than the 49ers.  Last week in Philadelphia, the Rams got down 34-7 before making a big comeback and falling short 34-28.  That was a positive sign since St. Louis didn’t quit in that game, and with a return home, we can expect a strong effort from the opening kick.  Quarterback Austin Davis has been good in completing 67.8% of his passes on 7.9 yards per pass attempt.  St. Louis is the more desperate team, and they are playing a San Francisco team that appears down a few notches.  We’ll take the points with the Rams in this game on Monday night.      

9* Play RAMS (+).

The New York Giants have played much better football over the last three weeks.  After opening the season with back-to-back losses, the Giants come into tonight on a 3-game winning streak.  The Giants have been terrific on both sides of the ball over their last three games as they’ve won those games by a combined score of 105-51.  Quarterback Eli Manning is thriving in the new offense while completing 69.1% (94-136) of his passes with a 10/3 TD/INT ratio over his last four games.  Manning will face a poor Philadelphia secondary that has allowed 1,458 passing yards and 13 touchdown passes to Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, and Austin Davis.  Aside from Luck, the other four quarterbacks are not elite passers by any means, so Manning should have a lot of success throwing the ball on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has been the luckiest team in the NFL so far this season.  The Eagles won their first three games after coming back from double-digit deficits.  Over their last two games, the Eagles have scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns.  Despite that, they lost 26-21 in San Francisco and barely hung on to beat St. Louis 34-28.  The Eagles’ run of good fortune cannot continue, and Philadelphia is in for a reality check in this divisional game against a surging team.  The Eagles’ defense has played below average football this season as they are giving up 26.4 points per game versus opponents that are averaging just 22.1 points per game.  Teams with poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when their opponent is better.  Philadelphia is a phony 4-1 team, so we’ll take the points with New York on Sunday night.  

9* Play GIANTS (+).

San Diego comes into this game with a 4-1 record, and their win/loss ledger makes them appear much better than they actually are.  The Chargers beat the Jets, Jaguars, and Bills over the last three weeks, and they’ve been underdogs in three of their five games this season, including their two road games at Arizona and Buffalo.  Off three straight wins over bad teams, the oddsmakers have now inflated San Diego’s worth by making them a touchdown road favorite over a division opponent.  That’s too much of an adjustment for this game, even against a 0-4 team like the Raiders.  San Diego played a perfect game last week when they blanked the Jets 31-0.  Teams off shutout wins are poor long-term ATS plays in the NFL, especially when they are playing on the road and laying points which is exactly the case for the Chargers in this game.

Oakland is in a very good scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Raiders come in off their bye week after firing head coach Dennis Allen.  The Raiders will play under interim head coach Tony Sparano, and if they are ever going to come with their best effort, this is the game.  Home underdogs off a week of rest is a strong angle in the NFL, especially in divisional games.  Winless underdogs off a bye are an even stronger play and the Raiders fit a fantastic 22-6 (79%) ATS angle based on that premise.  Oakland beat San Diego 27-17 at home last season, so they’ll also have confidence coming into this game.  The Raiders will get quarterback Derek Carr back for this game, and he has kept the team competitive in a 5-point loss at the Jets and a 7-point loss at the Patriots.  San Diego has Kansas City and Denver on deck, so this game in Oakland is an easy one to overlook.  The Raiders have everything in their favor, so we’ll take the points with Oakland on Sunday afternoon.     

10* Play RAIDERS (+).

Pittsburgh and Cleveland will play for the second time this season.  The Steelers beat the Browns 30-27 back in Week 1.  That game was a tale of two halves as Pittsburgh went into halftime with a commanding 27-3 lead.  As we’ve seen all season, Cleveland battled back to make it a game before losing on a last-second field goal.  Pittsburgh will surely remember that close game, and once they get ahead today, they won’t sit on the lead, especially since they recently lost to Tampa Bay by going conservative late in the game.  Pittsburgh’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 78 points over their last three games.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 72.6% (77-106) with 6 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those three games.  Roethlisberger threw for 365 yards against Cleveland in the first meeting, so he should have another big game here, especially since the Browns are ranked 28th in pass defense.

Cleveland has played in some wild and crazy games this season.  The Browns seem to thrive on making big comebacks, and there was no bigger comeback by a regular season road team than last week.  Cleveland trailed Tennessee 28-3 before coming back to win 29-28.  That comeback win is now in the record books, and off such a game, we expect the Browns to regress sharply today.  Cleveland is just 2-20 SU versus Pittsburgh over their last 22 meetings, and while the teams and personnel have changed, the psychology of losing is part of this rivalry.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible as they are allowing 26.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging just 22.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Browns have no business laying points, so we’ll back the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (+).

Indianapolis comes in off three straight big wins after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  The Colts beat Jacksonville 44-17, Tennessee 41-17, and last week they beat Baltimore 20-13.  Now they must take to the road on a short week and lay points into a divisional opponent that is much improved from last season.  The Colts are sure to regress off their last three performances, especially since they are in a bad situational and scheduling spot for this game.  Indianapolis has a terrible defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play to opponents that average 5.7 yards per play.  Overall, the Colts’ defense ranks 20th in efficiency metrics despite playing just one offense that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency.  Indianapolis is not as good as their recent results, and this game provides the perfect opportunity to play against the Colts.

Houston is playing good football this season.  The Texans come into this game with a 3-2 record with their lone losses coming on the road.  Houston is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning by a combined score of 40-23.  The Texans’ defense has been stout at home as they are only giving up 11.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Overall, Houston is only giving up 17.4 points per game versus opponents averaging 21.6 points per game.  The Texans are committed to the run under new head coach Bill O’Brien.  Houston is averaging 31.8 rushing attempts per game which ranks them #4 in the NFL, and overall, 52.7% of their plays come on the ground which ranks them #1 in the league.  Keeping the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands is a sure way to beat the Colts, and Houston’s style of play can do exactly that.  We’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play TEXANS (+).

Seattle is fresh off their bye, so we can expect a strong effort in this game.  The Seahawks’ offense is terrific, and they will have one of the top scoring teams in the NFL at season’s end.  They’ve scored 83 points in their three games, averaging 27.7 points per game against defenses that only allow 18.5 points per game.  Washington’s defense is bad as they are giving up 27.2 points per game versus offenses that are averaging just 23 points per game on the season.  Seattle should be able to move the ball up and down the field on the Redskins just like they did in the playoffs two seasons ago.  The Seahawks ran for 224 yards on a whopping 6.1 yards per rush in that game.  Seattle has had extra time to prepare for this game, and when coming off a bye during the past two regular seasons, the Seahawks have scored 55 points in two games combined.  It is also interesting to note that primetime NFL games are 13-2 Over so far this season.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly home loss to the Giants on a Thursday night.  The Redskins lost that game 45-14, and with extra time to prepare for this game, we can also expect a strong effort from Washington.  The Redskins have a much better passing game with QB Kirk Cousins playing in place of an injured RGIII.  In the two games prior to the Giants, the Washington offense scored 41 points on the Jaguars and 34 points on the Eagles.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 22 points per game this season, so they do not look like the same dominant unit they were last year when they allowed just 14 ppg.  Washington’s two home games this season have totaled 51 and 59 points scored, and since they are now playing an explosive offense, we expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Seahawks on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

New England will host Cincinnati on Sunday night football.  This game features a quirky scheduling dynamic that favors a low-scoring game.  Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye while the Patriots are playing on a short week after getting humiliated on Monday night football.  The Bengals are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season, and the bye actually came at a bad time for them.  Cincinnati had no sense of urgency during their time off, and after watching New England get blown out on Monday night, the Bengals might now come into this game a bit overconfident.  The Bengals’ offense has been heavy to the run so far this season, and they should have a similar game plan after seeing the Chiefs gash the Patriots for 207 yards on the ground.

The Patriots have regressed sharply on offense this season.  New England is averaging just 20 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Cincinnati has a stout defense that will prevent New England from moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  The Bengals are only allowing 11 points per game and 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Patriots are off their third most lopsided loss in the Belichick/Brady era, and since their defense was embarrassed, we expect a strong effort in this game.  New England’s offense simply isn’t the same as in year’s past, especially the passing game which is throwing for an anemic 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Look for a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Patriots on Sunday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Kansas City played way over their heads on Monday night.  The Chiefs waxed the Patriots 41-14 after racking up 443 yards of total offense.  Kansas City has now won back-to-back games in blowout fashion; the Chiefs beat Miami 34-15 the week before.  Kansas City owns wins over a pair of AFC East teams by a combined score of 75-29, but things figure to be much tougher in this game against San Francisco.  Despite their +46 point differential over the last two weeks, Kansas City is only averaging 25.5 points per game versus opponents that are allowing 24.1 points per game this season.  The Chiefs are now stepping way up in class, and they are doing so while taking to the road on a short week.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Kansas City, especially since they may be peaking ahead to their bye next week.

San Francisco beat Philadelphia 26-21 last week, but that score was not indicative of how the game played out on the field.  The 49ers dominated from the opening kick off and they out-yarded the Eagles 407-213 while not allowing an offensive touchdown.  The 49ers will be playing a consecutive home game for the first time this season, and since they will be on the road for four of their next fives games, this is an ultra important game to win.  San Francisco has a strong running game that averages 4.5 yards per rush, and the 49ers will run all over the Chiefs who are allowing a whopping 5.3 yards per rush since losing linebacker Derrick Johnson.  San Francisco is catching Kansas City at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  

10* Play 49ERS (-).

The New York Jets dominated their season opener in a win over the Oakland Raiders with a 402-158 total yard edge, but New York has now lost three straight games since that opening week win.  However, the Jets faced three of the strongest passing attacks in the league, and all three teams play in the NFC.  The Packers, Bears, and Lions were able to take advantage of the Jets’ secondary because of their offensive style.  New York is getting a much needed class relief in this game against San Diego because the Chargers do not possess a balanced offense.  San Diego only averages 70 rushing yards per game (2.4 ypr), so New York will be able to focus more on stopping the pass today.  After this game, the Jets will return home to face another potent opponent in the Denver Broncos.  This is New York’s best shot at stealing a win, especially since they get a favorable match-up in which they can play their style of football and be competitive.

San Diego comes into this game with a 3-1 record, and their win/loss ledger makes them appear better than they actually are.  The Chargers beat the Jaguars and Bills over the last two weeks, and they’ve been underdogs in three of their four games this season.  Off back-to-back wins over a mediocre team and a terrible team, the oddsmakers have now inflated San Diego’s worth by making them close to a touchdown favorite.  That’s too much of an adjustment for this game, especially since San Diego will play three divisional games over the next 18 days.  The Jets will be able to throw the ball on a suspect San Diego secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York is better than their past few losses indicate, and since they are now facing an easier match-up, we’ll take the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday.

9* Play JETS (+).

St. Louis got a much needed week off, and coming off their bye, we expect a strong effort from the Rams in this game in Philadelphia.  The Rams are just 1-2 on the season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (19-17) at Tampa Bay.  That win did come on the road with their two losses coming at home, so it’s good that this game is away from home, especially since they’ve had extra time to prepare.  St. Louis will start Austin Davis at quarterback after a strong game against Dallas.  Overall this season, Davis is completing 72.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt.  Davis will face a poor Philadelphia secondary that has allowed 1,083 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes to Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, and Colin Kaepernick.  Aside from Luck, the other three quarterbacks are not elite passers by any means, so Davis will have success throwing the ball on the Eagles.   

Philadelphia’s run of good fortune came to an end last week in San Francisco as the Eagles lost 26-21.  That 5-point loss was misleading as Philadelphia was out-yarded 407-213 with none of their three touchdowns coming on offense.  The Eagles scored on a blocked punt, an interception return, and a punt return.  Rumors are swirling that running back LeSean McCoy is playing on an injured toe, and that’s a major issue since he is Philadelphia’s biggest offensive threat.  The Eagles’ defense has played below average football this season as they are giving up 26 points per game versus opponents that are averaging 23.6 points per game.  Teams with poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying close to a touchdown.  This game will be closer than expected, so we’ll take the points with St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.     

9* Play RAMS (+).

Minnesota came thru as a Best Bet winner for us last week when they beat Atlanta 41-28.  There were a lot of factors in Minnesota’s favor for that game, but the opposite is true for tonight’s game in Green Bay.  The Vikings were off back-to-back poor performances in games that were terrible spots for them.  They were catching the Falcons off a 56-point performance, and Minnesota also got a boost from starting rookie Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.  Everything worked out, and the Vikings beat a flat Atlanta team.  Tonight they will be walking into a hostile environment, and all reports indicate that Christian Ponder will start at QB with Bridgewater nursing an ankle injury.  That means the Vikings will be playing with their third different starting quarterback in as many weeks, and it comes in a terrible spot on the road on a short week against a potent offensive opponent.  Even if Bridgewater does play, it will be difficult for him on just three days of rest and on the road in a hostile environment.  The weather forecast is also calling for an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms during this game tonight.

Green Bay will play just their second home game of the season; they beat the Jets back in Week 2.  The Packers have faced a tough schedule so far, and tonight’s game provides a much needed class relief.  Green Bay’s passing offense should put up big numbers in this game, especially against a weak Minnesota secondary.  The Vikings have been carved up in the last two weeks; they’ve allowed 68.4% completions on 7.8 yards per pass attempt and five touchdown passes.  Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a 9/1 TD/INT ratio this season, so he should have another big game tonight, especially since this game is at home.  Green Bay is the much better team and they are catching Minnesota in a terrible spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Packers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play PACKERS (-).

New England has yet to play a complete games on both sides of the ball this season.  The Patriots are 2-1, but they did not look good last week in their pedestrian 16-9 win over hapless Oakland.  New England also lost their season opener in Miami 33-20, and on the surface, that loss looks worse since Kansas City won 34-15 in Miami last week.  Bettors remember what they’ve seen last, and a blowout win looks much better than a 7-point win over the Raiders.  Add in the common opponent results, and it’s easy to see why the Chiefs look like a live home underdog tonight.  This line is exceptionally short considering the talent difference and huge quarterback edge in favor of New England.      

The Patriots’ offense will have a lot of success on the ground against a banged-up Kansas City defense that is missing both starting linebackers.  The Chiefs can’t stop the run; they’ve given up 347 yards on the ground this season on a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  New England has the running game to take advantage of that, and success on the ground will only open up the passing game for Tom Brady.  The Chiefs will also be without starting safety Eric Berry (ankle) tonight, and his absence leaves a gapping hole in the middle of the field.  New England always exploits their opponent’s weakness, so we expect the Patriots to gash the Chiefs on the ground and thru the air down the middle of the field.  Kansas City overachieved last season, and they lost 26-10 at home to Tennessee in Week 1.  That loss looks horrible now since the Titans have lost their last three games by a combined score of 100-34.  New England is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots on Monday night.   

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Dallas will host New Orleans on Sunday night football.  This game features two potent offenses and two defenses that are vulnerable to strong passing attacks.  New Orleans got their first win of the season last week when they beat Minnesota 20-9.  The Saints did not play well on offense as they turned 396 yards of total offense into just 20 points.  They will be more efficient in this game, especially against a weak Dallas defense that is allowing 23 points per game against opponents that only average 17.9 points per game.  The Cowboys have given up 6.3 yards per play this season against the 49ers, Titans, and Rams.  Last week, Dallas gave up 31 points and 448 yards of offense to St. Louis and backup quarterback Austin Davis.     

New Orleans has regressed sharply on defense this season.  The Saints are allowing 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play while facing rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, and journeymen Matt Cassel and Brian Hoyer.  Dallas has a potent offense that will move the ball consistently on the poor Saints’ defense.  The Cowboys are averaging 25.7 points per game, and they’ve been terrific in their last two games as they’ve been able to run the ball effectively.  DeMarco Murray has rushed for 267 yards in the last two games, and that has opened up the passing game for QB Tony Romo.  We expect both teams to go up and down the field, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Saints and Cowboys on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia is 3-0, but they could very well be 0-3 on the season.  The Eagles fell behind in all three games before coming back to win.  They trailed Jacksonville 17-0, Indianapolis 20-6, and Washington 17-7.  Philadelphia is the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive games after trailing by double digits.  The fact that they’ve been down to three weak teams is not a good sign at all going forward, and we expect the Eagles good fortune to run out in this game.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Eagles.  Philadelphia is not only coming off the three come from behind wins, but they are also coming off a high-scoring divisional win at home and now must travel across the country to face a good team off back-to-back losses.

San Francisco has played sloppy football over the last two weeks.  After opening their season with a 28-17 win in Dallas, the 49ers have lost back-to-back games.  In their 28-20 home loss to the Bears, San Francisco turned the ball over four times en route to blowing a 20-7 lead.  Last week, the 49ers blew a 14-6 lead in Arizona.  The 49ers return home to their brand new stadium, and after opening the place with an ugly loss, San Francisco will be eager to get their first win on their new field.  The setup for a prime San Francisco performance couldn’t be any better, especially since they’ll be facing a poor and fatigued Philadelphia defense that is allowing 26 points per game.  The Eagles’ secondary has been carved up by Kirk Cousins, Chad Henne, and Andrew Luck to the tune of 865 yards and 8 touchdown passes.  This is a great spot for San Francisco to get a blowout win, so we’ll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  

10* Play 49ERS (-).

Atlanta played one of the best games in recent NFL history last Thursday night.  The Falcons beat Tampa Bay 56-14 after gaining 488 yards with 344 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 21 of his 24 passes with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Atlanta can’t play any better, and off such a perfect performance, there’s a very good chance the Falcons will regress sharply in this game.  Ryan will be facing a solid Minnesota defense that is giving up just 18.7 points per game this season.  The Vikings have already faced two elite quarterbacks this season, and they held Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just 3 touchdown passes combined.       

Minnesota has lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a solid 34-6 win in St. Louis.  The Vikings were in bad spots for their last two games.  In Week 2, Minnesota had to play just two days after the Adrian Peterson news broke.  Last week, the Vikings had to play in New Orleans against a Saints team that was 0-2 and playing their first home game of the season.  Minnesota also lost QB Matt Cassel early in the game which forced rookie Teddy Bridgewater into action.  Bridgewater will get the start in this game, and with a full week to prepare, we expect a good performance, especially against a soft Atlanta defense that is giving up 24 points per game.  Minnesota is better than their last couple of games, and with Atlanta off a peak performance, we’ll take the points with the Vikings.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Tampa Bay was embarrassed last Thursday night in Atlanta.  The Buccaneers trailed 56-0 at one point before scoring a couple of late touchdowns to lose 56-14.  That performance was one of the worst in recent NFL history, but with extra prep time, Tampa Bay will bring their best effort and play much better football, especially with Mike Glennon now at quarterback.  Prior to that humiliating loss, the Buccaneers played two competitive games to open the season; they lost by six points to the Panthers and only lost by two points to the Rams.  Those two teams play a physical style of football unlike the finesse passing attack of Atlanta.  The Bucs match-up much better against those teams, and a team like Pittsburgh because of their style, so this game is closer than public perception.

Pittsburgh comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum after the Steelers routed the Panthers 37-19 in Carolina last Sunday night.  These two teams have both played Carolina this season.  The Bucs closed as 5-point favorites while the Steelers closed as 3-point underdogs.  So with lopsided results last week, this line has been super inflated on Pittsburgh as the sports books know one-way money is going to be on the Steelers in this game.  Pittsburgh’s defense still has issues, especially after three more starters got hurt last week.  The Steelers are giving up 24 points per game, and poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying a touchdown or more.  With Tampa Bay off a spotlight blowout loss and Pittsburgh off a spotlight blowout win, we’ll take the generous points with the Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Tennessee has not played good football over the last couple of weeks after opening the season with a 26-10 win over Kansas City.  However, the Titans were in a bad spot for their game against the Cowboys as they went from a road underdog win to the role of a home favorite against a team off an ugly loss.  Last week, Tennessee had to play the best team in the league after three weeks, and they were non-competitive in a 33-7 loss in Cincinnati.  The Titans will now play their first divisional game, and since they are familiar with their opponent, we expect Tennessee to be in this game from start to finish.  Charlie Whitehurst is expected to start at quarterback for injured Jake Locker, and Tennessee’s game plan will be to control the ball on the ground and keep Andrew Luck off the field.  The game plan would have been the same with Locker under center, so the quarterback change will not be much of a factor in this game.

Indianapolis comes in off their 44-17 blowout win in Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Colts have dominated the Jaguars over the last few years, so that win wasn’t surprising.  However, Indianapolis played well above their heads in that game, and the Colts are sure to regress off that performance.  After beating the Jaguars by a combined 54 points in two games last season, the Colts only won their next games by 1 and 6 points.  The Colts’ defense is terrible as they are giving up 26 points per game this season, and poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying a touchdown or more.  This game will be closer than expected, so we’ll take the points with Tennessee on Sunday afternoon.     

9* Play TITANS (+).

This is a tough situational and scheduling spot for Chicago.  The Bears come into this game off a fortunate 28-20 win in San Francisco last Sunday night.  Chicago capitalized on 4 turnovers by the 49ers, and without them, it’s hard to imagine the Bears winning that game since they only had 216 yards of total offense.  The Bears are playing with a banged-up offensive unit, and that doesn’t bode well for this game against one of the best defensive fronts in football.  Chicago will be hard-pressed to have much success running the ball in this game as the Jets have held their two opponents to just 105 total rushing yards on 37 carries, good for 2.8 yards per rush.  That means Chicago has to win this game thru the air, but with a group of receivers playing with nagging injuries, that’s going to be hard, especially in their second consecutive road game while going coast to coast. 

The New York Jets could actually be 2-0 coming into this game.  They blew a 21-3 lead in Green Bay last week after dominating the Raiders with a 402-158 yardage edge in their season opener.  New York will have success running the ball in this game against a Chicago defense that has been gashed on the ground this season.  The Bears have allowed 237 rushing yards on 44 carries in their two games this season.  That equates to an ugly 5.4 yards per rush, and the Jets have the personnel to take advantage of Chicago’s defensive weakness, especially with a mobile quarterback like Geno Smith.  New York has the better running game and they also hold a solid defensive edge, so we’ll lay the short price with the Jets in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play JETS (-).

Pittsburgh has not looked sharp in their first two games.  The Steelers needed a last-second field goal to beat Cleveland, and they followed that up with an ugly 26-6 loss at Baltimore last Thursday night.  The Steelers have had extra time to prepare for this game in Carolina, so we expect a much better effort.  We also need to note that both of those games came against divisional opponents for Pittsburgh, and those teams simply know their personnel and schemes much better than tonight’s out of conference opponent will.  Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 37 times in the last game, and that’s not a successful formula for the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has a good running game with Le’Veon Bell, and he will be a major test for a Panthers’ defense that has faced two poor rushing attacks so far this season.

Carolina is 2-0 thus far this season despite most pundits predicting a regression from the Panthers.  However, neither win by Carolina came in dominating fashion as they escaped Tampa Bay with a 20-14 win and last week they beat Detroit 24-7 in a misleading margin of victory.  The Panthers only led the Lions 7-6 with 2 minutes left to play in the third quarter before extending their lead late.  While Pittsburgh’s defense has some flaws, Carolina simply does not have an explosive offense to take advantage.  The Panthers are dealing with injury issues to their skill players, and it’s unclear who will actually play in this game.  Carolina’s defense has been stout, but they are facing a different style of offense tonight, and Pittsburgh’s physical ways are a bad match-up for the Panthers.  We’ll take the points with the Steelers on Sunday night.   

9* Play STEELERS (+).

Denver and Seattle will play once again after just meeting in the Super Bowl.  That game was a 43-8 route by the Seahawks, so this is an obvious revenge game for the Broncos.  Denver’s offense was stymied by Seattle in the Super Bowl, so the Broncos are out to make amends for that awful performance.  Denver’s offense has been superb in their two games this season as they’ve scored 55 total points.  The Broncos could easily have scored more points, but they’ve cruised in the second half of both games after winning the first half by a combined score of 45-17.  Denver will not go conservative in this game as their offense will give their full effort for all four quarters.  The Broncos’ offense also gets Wes Welker back on the field after he was suspended for the first two games.  Denver has their full compliment of skill players for this game, and with motivation, we expect a big offensive game from the Broncos.

Seattle’s offense is terrific, and the Seahawks will have one of the top scoring teams in the NFL at season’s end.  They’ve scored 57 points in their two games, averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 24.8 points per game.  Denver’s defense has yet to play well despite facing a pair of mediocre offenses that are only averaging 19.5 points per game on the season.  Seattle will move the ball up and down the field on the Broncos just like they did in the Super Bowl.  Seattle comes in off a road loss in San Diego, and the Seahawks’ offense has performed extremely well when returning home off a loss.  In three such instances over the last few years, Seattle’s offense has averaged 25.7 points per game.  We have a Denver offense highly motivated to prove their Super Bowl performance was a fluke, and an explosive Seattle offense playing at home off a loss.  That combination sets up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore bounced back strong as expected last Thursday night as they dominated Pittsburgh in a 26-6 win.  The Ravens have had extra time to get ready for another divisional opponent, so we expect another big effort in this game.  Baltimore has had this game circled since losing 24-18 in Cleveland last November.  Prior to that loss, the Ravens had won the nine previous games against Cleveland by an average of 12.1 points per game.  Baltimore’s defense has been terrific in their two games this season, allowing just 14.5 points per game against opponents that average 20.8 points per game.  The Ravens’ defense is taking a major step-down in class as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads for the second consecutive week in their 26-24 win over the Saints on the last play of the game.  Had New Orleans punched the ball into the end zone from the 4-yard line with about 3 minutes left to play, Cleveland would have been down 8 points and most likely would have lost.  Cleveland has played in emotional draining, last-second games in the first two weeks.  The Browns lost in Pittsburgh 30-27 in the season opener after giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off those back-to-back high-scoring games, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are facing a much better defensive team.  The Browns took advantage of two poor defensive teams in Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but they’ll be hard-pressed in having much success against the stout Baltimore defense.  Baltimore is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the short price with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Washington is a better team without RGIII at quarterback.  We saw that last week after he got injured and Kirk Cousins took over.  The Redskins dominated the hapless Jaguars and won 41-10 after Cousins completed 22 of his 33 passes for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Washington’s offense also ran for 191 yards in that game, and with balance to the run and pass, the Redskins can move the ball consistently under Cousins.  Washington will face a poor Philadelphia defense that has allowed 44 points in their two games thus far.  These divisional opponents played in a pair of close games last season with Philadelphia squeaking out a 6-point win on the road and an 8-point win at home.  The Redskins were a dysfunctional team last year, so the close games against the Eagles bodes well for this year, especially since Washington looks improved in 2014.  

Philadelphia is 2-0, but they could very well be 0-2 on the season.  The Eagles fell way behind in both games; they trailed Jacksonville 17-0 and trailed Indianapolis 20-6.  Philadelphia showed some grit in coming back to win both games, but they can’t expect the comebacks to continue.  This is also a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Philadelphia.  The Eagles are not only coming off the back-to-back come from behind wins, but they are also coming off a Monday night game in which they won SU as a road underdog.  Now the Eagles are facing a division opponent and laying a handful of points on a short week.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Tampa Bay and Atlanta both come in off losses last week, so we can expect a good effort from both teams.  The Buccaneers are 0-2 on the season despite being a home favorite in both games.  Tampa Bay closed as 5.5-point favorites over Carolina in the season opener, and last week the Bucs closed as 4-point favorites over St. Louis.  The Bucs played in two competitive games as a total of 8 points decided those games.  Now Tampa Bay hits the road for a divisional game, and they are catching 6 points.  That number is certainly inflated because the oddsmakers know the public is going to back the high-scoring Falcons in this game.  New Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith is a defensive-minded coach, and even though the Bucs are dealing with some injury issues to their stop unit, we expect Tampa Bay to contain Atlanta’s passing game.  The Bucs have a strong running game, and since Atlanta has a poor defense, playing ball control and shortening the game will be Tampa Bay’s way of keeping the Falcons’ offense off the field.   

Atlanta got crushed last week in Cincinnati; the Falcons lost 24-10.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bengals in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Falcons once again, especially since they are laying points in this game.  Atlanta’s defense has been awful, allowing a league-high 944 yards in two games.  The Falcons’ rush defense is extremely poor, allowing 283 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per rush and 5 touchdowns on the ground so far.  Tampa Bay’s strength is running the ball, and the Bucs will hold a big edge in the trenches in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Thursday night.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Philadelphia and Indianapolis both showed last week that their offenses can score points fast and in bunches.  The Eagles were shutout in the first half before erupting for 34 second-half points against the Jaguars.  Philadelphia ran 82 plays in that game which is an indication they play fast in hopes of wearing their opponent’s defense down.  The Eagles get an easy defensive opponent in this game as the Colts are ravished with injuries and simply void of much talent.  The Eagles’ offense will thrive on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Colts are going from the methodical and precision of the Broncos’ offense to the fast and furious Philadelphia offense.  That change in pace will be too much for the Colts’ defense.

Indianapolis only scored 7 points in the first half last week against Denver, but like the Eagles, the Colts played their best offense in the second half when they scored 17 points.  Quarterback Andrew Luck completed 35 of his 53 passes for 370 yards, and we expect him to have another big game.  The Broncos’ defense is significantly better than the Eagles’ defense, so Luck and the Colts’ offense will produce points in all four quarters.  Philadelphia allowed a terrible Jacksonville offense to throw for 266 yards last week, so they’ll have little shot in preventing Luck from having a big game thru the air.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Colts on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago unexpectedly lost 23-20 in overtime at home as 7-point favorites to Buffalo last week.  The Bears came out flat in that game, and they were playing catch-up for the majority of the game.  But with a game under their belts, we expect a much better effort from the Bears in this game, especially since they are off a loss and playing a spotlight game on Sunday night.  We expect Chicago to be fighting for a playoff spot later this season, so they certainly have the talent to hang with San Francisco.  Despite losing, the Bears’ offense put up tremendous numbers as they gained 427 yards while QB Jay Cutler completed 34 of his 49 passes for 349 yards.  Chicago’s potent offense will face a depleted 49ers’ defense, so we expect the Bears to move the ball consistently in this game.

San Francisco is off a misleading 28-17 win over Dallas last week.  The 49ers were handed that win thanks to four Dallas turnovers.  San Francisco only had 316 yards of total offense while giving up 382 yards of total offense to the Cowboys.  The 49ers’ defense escaped a bad outing in part to the ineptitude of the Dallas offense, but they won’t get any breaks in this game against Chicago.  The 49ers are without their three best defenders as Navorro Bowman (knee), Glenn Dorsey (biceps), and Aldon Smith (suspension) leave San Francisco’s top stop unit a shell of itself.  Both San Francisco cornerbacks also suffered injuries last week, so the 49ers’ defense is quite vulnerable in this game.  We’ll take the generous points with the Bears on Sunday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Miami and Buffalo both come into this game off upset wins as underdogs last week.  The Dolphins beat New England 33-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs while the Bills beat Chicago 23-20 in overtime as 7-point road underdogs.  Miami’s win over the Patriots was much bigger since that was a division game.  They are now in a bad situational spot, especially since they are on the road.  The Dolphins always put their best efforts into the New England games, so there’s reason to expect regression in this game against the Bills.  The Dolphins trailed 20-10 at the half, so they had to exert a lot of energy in that come back win.      

Buffalo showed a lot of grit in their comeback win in Chicago last Sunday.  The Bills blew a lead early and a lead late, before gutting out the win in overtime.  That win is a big confidence booster, especially since the Bills will play this game on their home field.  Buffalo ran the ball extremely well last week as they had 193 yards on 33 rushes.  That bodes well for this game considering Miami allowed the Patriots to average 4.4 yards per rush last week.  Miami also beat New England last season, and the following week the Dolphins played in Buffalo and lost 19-0.  We expect another flat game from Miami, so we’ll take Buffalo in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play BILLS (-).

NOTE:  The Giants have moved from +2 to Pick/-1 this morning.  New York would still be a 3% play at the current line of Pick/-1.

Arizona is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in New York against the Giants.  The Cardinals played at home on Monday night, and they were fortunate in beating San Diego 18-17 after scoring a touchdown with just over 2 minutes left in the game.  Now the Cardinals must wheel back on a short week and travel to the opposite coast and play an early start game.  Arizona is also playing with a shorthanded defense, so it makes no sense that the Cardinals are favored in this game.

New York also played last Monday night, but the Giants were noncompetitive in their 35-14 loss in Detroit.  The Giants expended very little energy in that game, and with a return home off an ugly spotlight loss, we expect a much improved effort in this game.  New York’s defense is better than what they showed in their season opener, and since they will be playing a fatigued Arizona offense, the Giants will be able to limit the Cardinals’ offensive production.  New York’s offense also has to play better, and they have no excuses in this game against the limited Arizona defense.  If these two teams played last week, New York would have been a 2-point home favorite.  But after last week’s results, there has been an overreaction which has created value in the pointspread.  We’ll take the value with the Giants at home in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

New Orleans and Cleveland both lost their season openers, and of the two, we expect the Saints to bounce back with a strong performance.  New Orleans lost in overtime in a high-scoring shootout with the Falcons.  There’s no shame in losing that game in Atlanta, and we’ll just disregard the statistical numbers against the Saints.  New Orleans is taking a major step-down in class for this game, and their talent simply over-matches anything Cleveland puts on the field.  The Saints’ defense will play much better in this game as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads last week in Pittsburgh.  The Browns were getting crushed at the half; they were down 27-3.  But the Browns exploded in the second half while out-scoring the Steelers 24-3.  Cleveland tied the game early in the fourth quarter before giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off that high-scoring loss against one of their divisional rivals, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are a poor team void of much talent.  The Browns will not be able to trade points with the potent New Orleans offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Atlanta opened their season with a big home win over their divisional rivals last Sunday.  The Falcons beat the Saints 37-34 in overtime after racking up 568 yards of total offense.  That was a huge offensive performance by the Falcons, and it was a major “statement” game for Atlanta after going 4-12 last season.  Off that big win, Atlanta must take to the road and play an out of conference game against a strong Cincinnati team playing their home opener.  The Falcons’ offense will face a stiff challenge in this game against a stout Bengals’ defense that completely shut down Baltimore last week.  Atlanta’s defense was torched by the Saints for 472 yards last week, and we expect the Bengals to put-up similar numbers in this game. 

Cincinnati was quite impressive in their 23-16 win in Baltimore last week.  The Bengals controlled that game from the outset, and they handed the Ravens their first home September loss  under head coach John Harbaugh.  Cincinnati was flattered on Thursday night when Baltimore came back and beat Pittsburgh 26-6.  The Bengals’ offense is in much better hands this season under offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, and that was evident last week.  QB Andy Dalton will have a big season, and we expect him to put-up some big numbers on the poor Atlanta defense.  Cincinnati is simply the much better team, and since they are catching Atlanta off their best performance, we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BENGALS (-).

This heated rivalry has been a close series over the last few years.  In fact, nine of the last ten meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.  Based on that trend, taking the points with Pittsburgh as an underdog may be luring.  However, the Steelers are a shell of their former teams, especially their defense.  In their home game last week against a talent-less Cleveland offense, the Steelers’ defense gave up 27 points on 389 yards of total offense.  Pittsburgh was gashed on the ground as the Browns ran for 183 yards while averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per rush.  The Steelers must now take to the road on a short week and face a hungry Baltimore team off a home loss in their season opener and playing once again on their strong home field.  Pittsburgh has had no time to fix their poor defense, so we can expect a repeat of last week’s terrible performance.  

Baltimore did not play good at all last week.  The Ravens trailed the Bengals 15-0 at one point before taking a brief lead and giving it right back just four plays later.  That home loss by the Ravens was their first in September under head coach John Harbaugh, and since they played so poorly, we can expect a much better effort tonight.  The Ravens are also in a better position to fix their problems because they’ve been at home since the end of preseason.  Baltimore is dealing with the distraction of the Ray Rice situation, but the best way for them to escape that is to play a football game.  The Ravens may prove to be the much better team at season’s end, so laying less than a field goal holds some value in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play RAVENS (-).

San Diego will be playing a new style of football this season.  The Chargers’ offense is now led by Frank Reich, and he has transformed San Diego from a ball-control offense into an up-tempo offense looking to run a high volume of plays.  The Chargers have a good passing attack with Philip Rivers at quarterback, and he’ll be productive in this game, especially since Arizona’s defense is dealing with multiple injuries to their best players.  The Cardinals’ defense is without Daryl Washington (suspension) and Darnell Dockett (knee) while Karlos Dansby left in free agency.  The absence of those three guys will limit Arizona’s pass rush and allow Rivers ample time to complete passes downfield.  

Arizona’s offense has the potential to be really good this season.  Head coach Bruce Arians is a brilliant play caller, and in his second year with the Cardinals, we expect big improvement.  We saw a much more efficient offense in the second half of last season after QB Carson Palmer and the rest of the Arizona offense got comfortable in Arians’ schemes.  Palmer is in position to have a big season, and tonight’s opponent provides him an opportunity to get off to a fast start.  The Chargers’ defense was poor last season, especially their secondary.  San Diego revamped their corners in free agency, but new guy Brandon Flowers and hold over Shareece Wright were torched repeatedly in the preseason.  With two strong passing offenses facing two vulnerable defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Cardinals on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Indianapolis had another phony season in 2013.  The Colts were out-played on the field, yet they went 11-5 and won a playoff game.  Indianapolis is coming into this season off back-to-back fortunate years, and regression has to set in soon, and we expect it to start in this game against the Broncos.  Seven of the Colts’ wins last season came by single digits, including their 39-33 home win over Denver last October.  Indianapolis was out-yarded 429-334 in that game, and that was a common occurrence last year.  The Colts’ defense was good against the bad teams and awful against the good teams, and we fully expect the Broncos’ offense to score a lot of points in this game.

Denver has some motivation to play extremely well in this game.  Aside from this game being the season opener, the Broncos were humiliated in the Super Bowl and they are also playing with revenge.  This is an important game for Peyton Manning against his former franchise, especially since he lost in his initial return to Indianapolis.  Manning and the Broncos’ offense will move the ball at will, especially since the Colts’ defense will be without their best defender Robert Mathis (suspension) and their free safety Delano Howell (neck).  Denver’s secondary was atrocious last season, but they addressed that need with the signings of Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.  Denver’s defensive line is projected to be strong, and they will apply pressure on QB Andrew Luck, especially since the Colts will start A.Q. Shipley at center after claiming him off waivers last Sunday.  Denver is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday night. 

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

San Francisco and Dallas have major issues on the defensive side of the ball.  The 49ers are without their three best defenders as Navorro Bowman (knee), Glenn Dorsey (biceps), and Aldon Smith (suspension) leave San Francisco’s top stop unit a shell of itself.  Against the two strong offenses they faced in the preseason, the 49ers gave up 23 points to the Ravens and 34 points to the Broncos.  The Cowboys’ defense was dreadful last season (27 points allowed per game), and they’ll also be without their best defenders.  Sean Lee is out with a knee injury while DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher left in free agency.  Dallas’ preseason results were ugly as they gave up 25 points or more in all four preseason games.   

The 49ers and Cowboys both possess potent offenses.  San Francisco will go up and down the field on the awful Dallas defense.  The 49ers’ offense returns intact from last year’s team that averaged 25.4 points per game.  Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a true dual threat, and Dallas’ defense has major issues versus mobile QB’s.  The Cowboys’ offense was strong last season (27 points scored per game), and they’ll be potent once again in 2014.  Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and San Francisco’s inability to pressure will allow Tony Romo to pick them apart thru the air.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the 49ers and Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland is in a very difficult situational and scheduling spot for this game in New York.  The Raiders had to travel cross country for their season opener, and they must play this game early on their body clocks.  The players’ bodies are not used to this, especially since all of their preseason games this year came at night.  Oakland will also be playing with a rookie quarterback, Derek Carr, who is making his first NFL start on the road.  Carr’s task will not be easy, especially against the aggressive and blitz-heavy defense of the Jets.  Carr faced pressure on just 8 of his 47 pass attempts during the preseason, so he’ll be unprepared for what Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense is going to throw at him.  Oakland’s offensive line was a mess in preseason, and they are still trying to find a viable unit and slot them in the right positions.  The Raiders’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  

The New York Jets will be much better than expected this season.  Most assumed Rex Ryan was gone after last season, but he was retained to the applause of his players who love playing for him.  The Jets’ situation this season is quite positive, and the team has built great chemistry.  “We’re way, way closer than last year,” Willie Colon said.  “Our stock as a team and family is going up.”  Quarterback Geno Smith was productive in the preseason as he completed 69.7% of his passes while playing healthy.  The Jets now have a home run threat in the backfield with the addition of Chris Johnson.  The ability to run the ball consistently will open things up downfield for the Jets, and they will attack the old and weak Oakland secondary.  The Jets are simply the superior team in an advantageous spot, so we’ll lay the points with them in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

10* Play JETS (-).

Green Bay and Seattle will begin the 2014 NFL regular season on Thursday night.  The Packers will be a good team this season, but they face a brutal matchup in this game.  Green Bay has to open their season on the road in the toughest stadium, and they will do so with an inexperienced center.  Rookie center Corey Linsley will get the start after Green Bay lost their starter to injury.  Linsley has yet to snap a ball to quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a game, and that will be a major issue in this game, especially considering the extreme crowd noise teams face in Seattle.  The Packers’ defense was also bad last season when they gave up 27 points or more in ten games.  Green Bay did not address those issues, so we can expect the Packers’ defense to play poorly tonight, especially against a Seattle offense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Seattle cruised to a Super Bowl win last season, and there’s no reason they won’t sustain a high level of performance for the next few years.  There are no holes in this Seattle team, and they could actually be better than they were last season.  The Seahawks’ offense was on a mission during the preseason, and quarterback Russell Wilson played lights out.  Wilson completed 78.6% (33-42) of his passes while taking the second-most QB snaps of all quarterbacks in the preseason.  That indicates that Seattle is planning to unleash Wilson this season rather than making him a game manager like the last couple of years.  Seattle’s entire offense is fully healthy, and they simply have too much firepower for the Green Bay defense.  We’ll lay the points with Seattle in this game on Thursday night.        

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Green Bay and Seattle will provide an entertaining matchup on opening night in the NFL.  The Packers always possess a strong offense, and that will be the case once again this season.  Green Bay will score their share of points just as they always do early in the season.  In fact, the Packers have averaged 25.5 points per game in their first three regular season games over the last two years.  The Packers will also benefit from the new defensive pass interference rules, especially since rumor has it that the league changed the rules because of the Seattle cornerbacks.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is shrewd enough to recognize that, so expect the Packers to take some shots downfield.

Seattle’s reputation is that of a defensive team.  However, we expect the Seahawks’ offense to have a fantastic season in 2014.  In the preseason, Seattle tipped their hand with the way they played quarterback Russell Wilson.  He completed 78.6% (33-42) of his passes while taking the second-most QB snaps of all quarterbacks in the preseason.  That indicates that Seattle is planning to unleash Wilson this season rather than making him a game manager like the last couple of years.  Seattle’s entire offense is fully healthy, and they simply have too much firepower for the Green Bay defense.  The Packers gave up 27 points or more in ten games last season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Seahawks on Thursday night.   

9* Play OVER the total.