-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games 
-offense is below average while averaging just 21.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 24.1  
-Buccaneers defense gave up 34 points on a whopping 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game

-Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort
-offense averages 289.2 passing yards per game; Bucs give up 309 pypg on 7.4 yards per attempt    
-Cardinals defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home    

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

-Philadelphia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class against Carolina’s defense 
-offense has faced a group of poor defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play 
-Eagles defense is giving up just 19.8 points per game; allowing 62.8 rushing yards per game  

-Carolina returns home off back-to-back road wins; they’ve scored 22 total points at home
-offense averages just 5.5 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play 

-Panthers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play

10* Play OVER the total.

-Minnesota’s offense is taking a big step-down in class against Chicago’s pass defense 

-Vikings offense averaging 6.1 yards per play vs. defenses that give give up 5.7 yards per play 

-defense played their worst game of the season in their lone road game; 26 points allowed

-Chicago returns home off a blowout loss at Green Bay; extra prep time off that Thursday game

-offense averages 4.5 yards per rush vs. defenses that give up 4.2 ypr; opens up big passing plays 

-Bears defense is giving up 26 points per game overall; allowing 6.0 yards per play at home

9* Play OVER the total.

-Kansas City is 4-0 SU/ATS on the season, but this is a bad spot after playing on Monday night  
-offense has faced defenses that give up 6.3 yards per play, so this is a big step-up in class
-Chiefs defense has given up 5.8 yards per play, so that unit has been anything but dominant

-Houston is getting a rare national TV game at home, so expect a strong effort tonight
-offense is averaging 27.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.8 ppg  
-Texans defense is holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXANS (+).

-Seattle has some good momentum after their 46-18 home win over the Colts last Sunday night 
-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play

-Los Angeles returns home off back-to-back high-scoring road wins; natural letdown spot here 
-offense is pass heavy while averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt; Seattle gives up just 5.7 yppa 
-Rams defense is giving up 26.2 points per game on an ugly 6.0 yards per play

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-Buffalo is off back-to-back SU underdog wins, and now on second straight road trip; letdown
-offense is below average; scoring just 18.9 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 
-Bills QB Taylor isn't the same on the road; just 6 of his last 22 TD passes have come on the road

-Cincinnati returning home off a big, confidence-building 31-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play
-Bengals defense is excellent; giving up just 16.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

9* Play BENGALS (-).

-Los Angeles is 0-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 2, and 2 points
-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play  
-Chargers defense is stepping down in class after facing teams that average 5.7 yards per play  

-New York is also 0-4 on the season, and they’ve lost back-to-back high-scoring games 
-offense has been abysmal while averaging just 15 points per game on 5.4 yards per play 
-Giants defense is giving up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

-New England was in a bad spot last Sunday, and that loss was not surprising; bounce back here
-offense averages 32.2 ppg on 6.5 yards per play vs. defenses that allow 19.6 ppg on 5.7 yppl 
-head coach Bill Belichick is an incredible 20-1 SU and ATS off a SU loss vs. non-division teams 

-Tampa Bay survived the Giants last week; team is loaded with injuries and stepping up in class 
-Buccaneers offense only averaging 23.7 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.9 ppg
-defense has given up 21.3 points per game vs. opponents that only average 16.7 points per game  

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

-Washington playing their 2nd straight primetime game; beat Oakland 27-10 last Sunday night
-offense has underperformed; 6.0 yards per play versus three bad defenses that allow 6.1 yppl 
-Redskins defense gave up 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game in LA versus the Rams 

-Kansas City comes into this game at 3-0 on the season; the only unbeaten team remaining
-offense is averaging a whopping 7.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 6.5 yppl
-Chiefs defense has been good giving up 5.5 yards per play vs. offenses that average 6.1 yppl    

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

-Indianapolis is only scoring 17.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 25.2 ppg  
-offense is averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that give up 5.4 yppl
-Colts defense has been terrible giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play

-Seattle returns home off a 33-27 loss to Titans; expect strong bounce back, especially on defense
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game; give up just 9 ppg at home   

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-New York is 0-3 SU and desperate; much improved showing last week; expect more of the same
-offense stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play

-Tampa Bay returning home off a shellacking at Minnesota; team is besieged with injuries 
-Buccaneers offense has played two defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 6.1 yards per play versus opponents that only average 5.7 yards per play 

10* Play GIANTS (+).

-San Francisco is 0-3 SU, but they’ve had extra time to prepare after last playing on a Thursday
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 19.3 points per game 
-49ers defense is only giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play

-Arizona playing another home game after losing on Monday night to Dallas; injury riddled team
-offense has underperformed; 18.7 points per game versus bad defenses that allow 23.9 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is giving up 25.3 points per game on 5.1 yards per play

9* Play 49ERS (+).

-Carolina has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game 
-Panthers defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

-New England is set to regress after scoring 36 points in each of their last two wins
-QB Tom Brady will face a Carolina secondary that is only giving up 5.5 yards per pass attempt
-Patriots defense is giving up 31.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

-Dallas is looking to bounce back strong off their poor performance in Denver; a 42-17 loss
-offense is averaging 4.9 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that only give up 4.8 yppl
-Cowboys defense has been good giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yppl  

-Arizona playing their home opener after splitting their first two games on the road
-offense has underperformed; 19.5 points per game versus two bad defenses that allow 25.5 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is terrible giving up 5.7 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 4.7 yppl    

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

-Oakland’s offense will face another terrible defense; Raiders have scored 71 points in 2 games
-QB David Carr completing 75% (45-60) of his passes with a perfect 5/0 TD/INT ratio
-defense going from a run-oriented Jacksonville offense to a pass heavy Redskins offense

-Washington lost their home opener after scoring just 17 points; offense is the focus in this game
-offense averaging 146.5 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per rush; big plays will open up downfield   

-Redskins defense giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 yards per play  

9* Play OVER the total.

-Seattle has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13 points per game on 5.3 yards per play 

-Tennessee set to regress after beating Jacksonville by 21 points (37-16) last week
-QB Marcus Mariota has struggled mightily; 58.8% completions with just one TD pass so far
-Titans defense giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per play on the season

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-New York is 0-2 SU and desperate; expect a strong effort with this being a divisional game
-offense stepping down in class after facing two defenses that only give up 5.0 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 21.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play

-Philadelphia returning home off a pair of road games; line is inflated after Giants recent results 
-Eagles offense has played two bad defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 4.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite 

9* Play GIANTS (+).

-Denver’s first road game after a Monday night win and high-profile win over the Cowboys
-the Broncos offense will regress sharply after scoring 66 points in their first two games
-offense averaging just 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.1 yppl  

-Buffalo plays much better at home than on the road; they beat the Jets in their home opener
-Denver’s man defense vulnerable to dual threat quarterbacks; Taylor leads all QB’s in rushing  
-the Bills defense is giving up just 10.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play 

9* Play BILLS (+).

-Detroit is not nearly as good as they looked by the score of their 35-23 win over Arizona
-Lions offense only had 367 yards of total offense; 4 turnovers contributed to their 35 points
-committed 10 penalties and only ran for 82 yards at home; trouble coming on the road 

-New York was in a bad spot for their opener in Dallas; a team playing with double revenge
-Giants playing at home against an overrated team presents some great value in the pointspread
-defense taking a step-down in class going from diverse Cowboys offense to predictable Lions  

10* Play GIANTS (-).

-Green Bay’s offense taking a big step-down in class going from the Seahawks to the Falcons
-QB Aaron Rodgers played terrific against Seattle while throwing for 311 yards 
-Packers defense going from a run-oriented Seattle to a pass-happy Atlanta offense on a fast track

-Atlanta opening their new stadium in primetime, so expect a strong offensive performance
-QB Matt Ryan was fantastic in Chicago; completed 70% (21-30) of his passes for 321 yards 

-Falcons defense taking a huge step-up in QB class going from Mike Glennon to Aaron Rodgers

9* Play OVER the total.

-New England’s offense had extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday night
-QB Tom Brady completed just 44.4% (16-36) of his passes vs. KC; expect a strong performance 
-Patriots defense was atrocious while giving up 42 points on 537 yards to the Chiefs  

-New Orleans’ offense only scored 19 points in Minnesota; expect strong performance at home
-QB Drew Brees played terrific on Monday; completed 73% (27-37) of his passes for 291 yards 

-Saints defense gave up 346 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Sam Bradford; now face Brady

10* Play OVER the total.

-Buffalo only beat the Jets (worst team in the league) by 9 points at home last week
-defense has 6 new starters in their defensive backfield; ranked 30th in rush D efficiency in 2016
-the Bills offense averaged 30.8 points per game at home, but just 19.1 ppg on the road in 2016 

-Carolina dominated the 49ers in San Francisco in their 23-3 win last week
-offense is more dynamic now with rookie running back Christian McCaffrey catching passes
-Panthers defense is healthy, and they’ve held 8 of their last 11 opponents to 20 points or less  

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

-San Diego has played much better on the road recently; 10-6 ATS their last 16 away games
-Chargers out-rushed the Broncos in both 2016 meetings; Melvin Gordon fully healthy now

-defense will be very good this season, and they’ll limit scoring opportunities in this game

-Denver went 9-7 in 2016, but we expect a losing record at the end of the 2017 season
-Broncos possess a limited offense with Trevor Siemian at QB
-defense is in transition; released safety TJ Ward and pass rusher Derek Wolf (ankle) hobbling  

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

-New York’s offense was absolutely abysmal last season, and not much looks it will change
-Odell Beckham is battling a high ankle injury; insiders believe there’s a good chance he’s out
-Giants offensive line was atrocious in 2016, and that unit looks just as bad heading into 2017

-Dallas’ offense was terrific in 2016, and with the same personnel, expect more of the same
-Ezekiel Elliott was reinstated, so the Cowboys have their full compliment of weapons available
-of their 3 regular season losses last season, two came against the Giants; meaningful revenge

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

-Oakland is set to regress this season after overachieving in 2016; bad stats for a 12-win team
-Raiders were +16 in turnover margin as well; another reason to expect regression
-went 5-0 in games that were decided by 3 points or less in 2016

-Tennessee’s offense improved by 5 points per game in 2016; expect more improvement in 2017
-rushing success will open up big passing plays downfield against a terrible Oakland secondary
-Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor all upgrade the Titans skill positions significantly

10* Play TITANS (-).

-Arizona set to bounce back after failing to reach 10+ wins for the first time under HC Arians
-Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu are both healthy making the Cardinals defense formidable
-expect QB Carson Palmer to attack with the pass since Detroit’s defense is undermanned

-Detroit is set to regress after making the playoffs in 2016 while getting out-scored on the year
-Lions defense is in flux; Kerry Hyder (out for season) and Ziggy Ansah (ankle) limited
-offense is not explosive so expect few points, a lot of running and short passing plays

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

-Jacksonville will be able to run the ball on Houston with bruising rookie Leonard Fournette
-the Jaguars have a solid defense that will limit the scoring opportunities of the Texans
-both meetings were close last season (1 and 3 points), and the teams are just about the same

-Houston had the 29th ranked offense last year, and with Tom Savage starting, expect similar
-Pro Bowl LT Duane Brown is holding out, so the Texans offensive line is in flux right now
-Will Fuller (collarbone) and Jaelen Strong (suspension) won’t play, reducing the depth at WR

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

-Kansas City went 12-4 SU in 2016, but their overall stats did not match up to that record

-QB Alex Smith will lose his job to rookie QB Patrick Mahomes; it’s just a matter of when

-Chiefs were +16 in turnover margin in 2016; a number which will certainly regress in 2017

-New England is the best team in the NFL, and there’s a decent gap back to second

-offense is loaded with speedy playmakers; more potent than ever, even without Julian Edleman-Patriots have gone 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up just 22.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  New England is the best scheming team in the league and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability will negate Atlanta’s pass rush which in turn makes the Patriots' passing game very dangerous.  New England’s offensive line will hold up in protection, so Brady will throw the ball all over a weak Falcons' secondary just as every other elite quarterback has done this season.  Brady and the Patriots offense will face an Atlanta defense that gives up 24.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a collection of offenses that only averaged 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Atlanta’s offense is explosive, and the Falcons should once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 34.4 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was strong away from home this season where they averaged 32.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense has scored 30 points or more in thirteen games this season, and they are capable of doing so again in this game.  The Falcons’ offense is a big step-up in class for New England’s defense, especially at the quarterback position with Matt Ryan.  The Patriots’ have faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Atlanta will be a shock to New England’s system, and there are many reasons to believe the Patriots will play their worst defensive game of the season.  Look for a high-scoring Super Bowl between the Patriots and Falcons on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Pittsburgh was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and after a 30-12 home win over Miami and last week’s 18-16 win in Kanas City, the Steelers are on a 9-game winning streak.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been outstanding recently as they’ve scored 24 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  They should have done it again last week against the Chiefs, but their four red zone trips resulted in field goals, and their lone goal to go resulted in an interception in the end zone.  Overall, the Steelers’ offense is averaging 24.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s offense will be a big step-up in class for New England’s defense, especially at the quarterback position with Ben Roethlisberger.  The Patriots’ have faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 20.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Steelers will be a shock to New England’s system, and there’s many reasons to believe the Patriots will play one of their worst defensive games of the season.  

New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 27.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability will negate Pittsburgh’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous.  Furthermore, if New England’s offensive line can hold up in protection, Brady will throw the ball all over the weak Steelers secondary just as he did in an earlier season meeting in Pittsburgh.  Brady completed 19 passes for 222 yards with 2 touchdowns in a 27-16 New England win; Roethlisberger did not play in that game.  Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots will be a shock to Pittsburgh’s system, and there’s many reasons to believe the Steelers will also play one of their worst defensive games of the season.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring AFC Championship game on Sunday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch as they are on an 8-game winning streak.  Unfortunately for the Packers’ offense, they lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a rib injury prior to their last game, and wide receiver Davante Adams injured his ankle in last week’s game.  They will likely give it a go today, but Nelson and Adams are Green Bay’s top two receivers, and their lack of health and possible ineffectiveness will make things that much harder for quarterback Aaron Rodgers in this game.  The Packers will also be playing their third road game in four weeks, and after last week’s emotional late win in Dallas, the team may not have much left to beat another excellent opponent.  The Packers’ defense has been their weakness all season, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play while allowing a horrible 8.3 yards per pass.

Atlanta’s offense was explosive all season, and the Falcons will once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was even better at home where they averaged 35.1 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense hung 33 points on the Packers’ defense in an earlier season meeting, and since Green Bay has given up 24 points or more in their last three road games, there’s no reason the Falcons won’t match the production of the first meeting.  Five of Atlanta’s six home wins this season have come by 6 points or more, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Green Bay’s offense is averaging 28 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense has also traveled well this season as they are averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 65.7% (401-610) of his passes for 4,428 yards with an excellent 40/7 touchdown/interception ratio.  Rodgers carved-up Atlanta’s secondary in the first meeting while throwing 4 touchdown passes and scoring 32 points.  Overall, the Falcons’ defense allows 26.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers’ defense has been their weakness all season, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  To win, Green Bay will have to trade points with Atlanta all game long.

Atlanta’s offense was explosive all season, and the Falcons will once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was even better at home where they averaged 35.1 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense hung 33 points on the Packers’ defense in an earlier season meeting, and since Green Bay has given up 24 points or more in their last three road games, there’s no reason the Falcons won’t match the production of the first meeting.  We expect a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Packers and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Pittsburgh was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and after last week’s 30-12 home win over Miami, the Steelers are on an 8-game winning streak.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been outstanding recently as they’ve scored 24 points or more in nine consecutive games.  Overall, the Steelers’ offense is averaging 25.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense got much better as the season went on, and in fact, the Steelers have held six of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less.  Overall, the Steelers’ defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  

Kansas City began the season at just 2-2, but since their bye week they’ve gone 10-2 SU.  However, only three of those wins came against playoff teams, and two of those wins were against the Raiders.  The Chiefs’ offense was also fortunate in facing a slew of terrible defenses during that stretch.  That won’t be the case tonight against the tough and physical Pittsburgh defense.  Kansas City’s offense has barely played above average football this season.  The Chiefs are averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Kansas City finished their season by scoring 70 total points against the Broncos and Chargers.  Prior to those two games, the Chiefs scored 21 points or less in five of their previous seven games.  Pittsburgh is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Seattle and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  Seattle hits the road after their 26-6 home win over Detroit last week.  The Seahawks have scored 24 points or more in four straight games, and in five of their last six games overall.  Seattle will now face an Atlanta defense that gives up 25.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Falcons’ defense has been even worse at home where they are giving up 27.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Seattle will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 26 points on just 333 yards of total offense.

Atlanta’s offense has been explosive all season.  The Falcons are averaging 33.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta has been even better at home where they are averaging 35 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play.  The Falcons will now face a Seattle defense that has allowed 23 points or more in four of their last five road games.  Against three good quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, and Rodgers) on the road, Seattle’s defense gave up 25, 24, and 38 points.  Atlanta scored 24 points on just 362 yards of offense in the first meeting in Seattle.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Falcons on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play OVER the total.

New York quietly went 11-5 SU during the regular season, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games.  Three of New York’s five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in just about every games they’ve played.  New York’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 47 total points in their past four games.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  New York’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are taking a big step-down in class versus the Green Bay defense in this game.

Green Bay came on strong down the stretch as they won their last six games of the regular season.  However, the Packers’ offense was fortunate to face several weak defensive teams during that stretch.  That won’t be the case this afternoon against a stout New York defense.  The Packers have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, six of their wins have come by 8 points or less, including two of their last three wins.  Green Bay’s defense has been poor all season as they are giving up 24.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average just 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take New York plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Miami and Pittsburgh match up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Miami has scored 108 total points in their last four games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Quarterback Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.  Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when Miami scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.

Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in eight straight games.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  In the first meeting versus Miami, the Steelers only scored 15 points on 297 yards of total offense.  However, QB Ben Roethlisberger had a below average game as he only completed 55.9% (19-for-34) of his passes with two interceptions.  Roethlisberger was playing hurt in that game, and since he always plays better at home, expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense in the second meeting today.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami will hit the road for their playoff game after losing 35-14 at home to New England last Sunday afternoon.  Despite that loss, Miami has gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games while playing two different quarterbacks.  Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.  Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense just like Miami did in the first meeting this season when they scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.

Pittsburgh has bounced back strong since losing their first two games after their bye back in Week 8.  The Steelers have won seven consecutive games since then, but their last four wins have all come by 7 points or less.  Not only that, but six of Pittsburgh’s seven wins also came against non-playoff teams.  The Steelers’ defense has given up 20 points or more in each of their past four games despite playing bad offenses like the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens during that stretch.  Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We’ll take Miami plus the generous points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

Detroit and Seattle match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday night.  Detroit’s offense has underachieved for most of the season, but for them to have any chance to beat Seattle, their offense must be aggressive in the passing game.  Detroit figures to be playing this game from behind, and that will force the Lions’ offense to open things up.  Detroit played in chase mode in their last two games and they scored 21 points on the Cowboys and 24 points on the Packers.  Detroit has scored 20 points or more in nine of their last twelve games overall, and if they reach that number tonight, there’s an excellent chance this game goes well Over the posted total.  The Lions are catching a reeling Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Seattle returns home after playing their season finale in San Francisco last week.  Seattle’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Seahawks are only averaging 22.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play overall.  But at home, Seattle is averaging 28.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Seahawks have scored 24 points or more in seven straight home games this season, and there’s no reason for that streak not to continue tonight.  Seattle will now face a Detroit defense that gives up 24.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Seahawks on Saturday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay and Detroit match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Packers are averaging 26.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Lions' defense is permitting a weak 6.0 yards per play this season versus opponents that average just 5.6 yppl overall.  Green Bay has scored 106 total points in their past three games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  The Packers scored 34 points against Detroit in the first meeting this season.  They did that on just 324 yards of total offense while having the ball for less than 25 minutes.

Detroit returns home off back-to-back road games where their offense scored a total of just 27 points.  The Lions have actually played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game will now bring out the best in their offense.  Over their past six home games, Detroit is averaging 22.8 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in three of those games.  The Lions will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing an awful 28.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Look for another high-scoring game between the Packers and Lions on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New Orleans is just 7-8 SU on the season, but the Saints have been playing their best football as of late.  New Orleans has gone 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming by just 5 points.  The Saints’ offense has been terrific this season; New Orleans is averaging 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 32 points on 474 yards of offense.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.

Atlanta has bounced back strong since their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City four weeks ago.  In their last three games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14), they beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13), and last week they beat the Panthers by 17 points (33-16).  However, those three dominating wins came against three of the worst offensive teams in the league.  Atlanta will now face the potent New Orleans offense, so the Falcons' defense will likely have a weak game.  Overall, Atlanta’s defense is giving up 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying more than a touchdown, and the line is inflated as New Orleans was a 3-point favorite in the earlier meeting this season.  We’ll take the value with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (+).

New Orleans and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  New Orleans has scored 23 points or more in ten of their fifteen games this season.  The Saints have scored 79 total points in their last two games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Overall, New Orleans’ offense is averaging 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  The Saints have been good on the road where they are averaging 27.0 points per game.  New Orleans will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when the Saints scored 32 points on 474 yards of offense.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.

Atlanta returns home for their season finale in a game they need to win in order to secure the #2 spot in the NFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs.  Atlanta’s offense has been explosive all season.  The Falcons are averaging 33.5 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta has been even better at home where they are averaging 34.6 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  The Falcons will now face a New Orleans defense that gives up 27.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Atlanta scored 45 points on 442 yards of offense in the first meeting.  Look for another high-scoring game between the Saints and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit comes into this game with a 9-5 SU record, and the Lions have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Detroit’s lone loss during that stretch came by a score of 17-6 in New York against the Giants last week.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 79 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Lions’ defense is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.4 points per game.  Detroit’s offense has been underwhelming, but they won’t be at a disadvantage in this game because it’s projected to be played at an extremely slow pace.

Dallas is having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 12-2 SU record with the only team to beat them being the New York Giants.  The Cowboys have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, seven of their twelve wins have come by 7 points or less, including four of their last five wins.  Dallas’ offense plays at a slow pace as they prefer to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott behind the NFL’s best offensive line.  That style of play prevents Dallas from winning by big margins, and we expect more of the same against the Lions.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play LIONS (+).

Baltimore and Pittsburgh match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Ravens’ offense has been in excellent current form over the last three weeks.  Baltimore has scored 23 points or more in all three of those games; they scored a total of 88 points against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles.  Overall, Baltimore’s offense is only averaging 21.9 points per game, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 22.7 points per game.  Baltimore is playing much better football on offense right now, so their seasonal average isn’t a true indicator of how this team is performing right now.

Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in six straight games.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  In the first meeting versus Baltimore, the Steelers only scored 14 points on 277 yards of total offense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have his best game either as he only completed just 51.1% (23-45) of his passes with one interception.  Roethlisberger has always played better at home, so expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense, especially since Baltimore has given up 56 total points in their last two games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Indianapolis and Oakland match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Indianapolis has scored 23 points or more in ten of their thirteen games with Andrew Luck under center.  The Colts have scored 92 total points in their last three games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Overall, Indianapolis’ offense is averaging 25.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Colts have been even better on the road where they are averaging 30 points per game.  Indianapolis will now face an Oakland defense that is allowing 28 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play at home this season.

Oakland returns home off back-to-back poor offensive games; they scored just 13 points in Kansas City and just 19 points in San Diego last week.  Prior to those two poor outputs, the Oakland offense had averaged 32.2 points per game over their previous six games.  Oakland’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.  The Raiders will face an Indianapolis offense that gives up 24.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Raiders on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta has bounced back strong after their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City three weeks ago.  In their last two games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14) and they also beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13).  However, both of those dominating wins came against two of the worst teams in the league who have also quit on the season.  Off back-to-back blowout wins, we expect Atlanta to regress in this game, especially since they have to hit the road and play outside in the elements while laying points into a divisional opponent.  Atlanta certainly has a strong offensive team, but the Falcons have been vulnerable on defense all season long.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Carolina is just 6-8 on the season, but the Panthers have been playing their best football as of late.  Since their bye week, Carolina has gone 5-3 SU with two of their losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  The Panthers have played three of their last four games on the road, so this will be just their second home game since November 27th.  Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Panthers will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 33 points on 378 yards of offense despite losing Cam Newton to a concussion.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying points, so we’ll take the Panthers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

Carolina and Washington match-up well for a high-scoring game on Monday night.  Aside from their 7-point debacle in Seattle two weeks ago, the Carolina offense has been in excellent current form.  The Panthers have scored 23 points or more in three of their last four games; they scored a total of 83 points in those three games.  Overall, Carolina’s offense is averaging a respectable 23.9 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.5 points per game.  The Panthers will now face a Washington defense that is giving up 24.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Washington has scored 23 points or more in ten of their thirteen games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 144 points in their past five games.  Washington’s offense will now face a Carolina defense that has been terrible on the road this season.  The Panthers are giving up 32.5 points per game on a whopping 6.8 yards per play away from home.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Redskins on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Tampa Bay and Dallas match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Buccaneers are averaging a respectable 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Tampa Bay has scored 81 total points in their last three road games compared to just 66 total points in their last three home games.  Those numbers show the Buccaneers have been a better offense on the road recently, and they are certainly going to need to trade points if they want any shot at winning in Dallas tonight.

Dallas’ offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 27.5 points per game on a terrific 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Dallas’ overall average of 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  The Cowboys will have success against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing 22.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland had their 6-game winning streak snapped in their 21-13 loss in Kansas City last Thursday night.  And while they do have some extra rest coming into this game, we expect the Raiders to lose once again.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses.  Oakland’s own defense has had trouble stopping their opponents consistently, so the Raiders usually play in high-scoring games.  Overall, the Raiders’ defense is giving up 24.6 points per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

San Diego is just 5-8 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 26.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of Oakland’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 31 points on 423 yards of offense.  The Chargers are just as good as the Raiders, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

New England is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game in Denver on Sunday afternoon.  The Patriots just played at home on Monday night when they beat the Baltimore Ravens 30-23.  New England will now hit the road on a short week while playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Patriots’ offense is also short-handed without Rob Gronkowski, and their inability to go deep now is a major concern in this game, especially against the stout Denver secondary.  New England certainly has a terrific offense, but they will face a Denver defense that is only giving up 20.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 13-10 loss in Tennessee.  In fact, the Broncos have played four of their last five games on the road with their lone home game during that stretch being a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs in overtime.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.6 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense has also been much better at home where they are averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take Denver plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Pittsburgh is playing their best football of the season right now.  The Steelers head into Cincinnati on a 4-game winning streak while out-scoring their opponents by a combined 103-50.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  In the first meeting versus Cincinnati, the Steelers scored 24 points on 374 yards of total offense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have his best game either as he only completed 51.4% (19-37) of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in nine of their twelve games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  In seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 5-7-1 on the season as they return home off an easy 23-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday.  The Bengals also won easily the week before when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 32-14.  However, both of those teams are struggling mightily right now, and Cincinnati played their two best games of the season.  The Bengals are now taking a major step-up in class against Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati is set to regress off their last two wins.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 22 points per game.  Pittsburgh’s defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on the road.  Pittsburgh is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Baltimore comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, but the Ravens have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Baltimore’s lone loss during that stretch came by 10 points (27-17) in Dallas against the Cowboys who are 11-2 SU on the season.  Baltimore’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 68 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Ravens’ defense is only giving up 17.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are catching New England’s offense at the right time and the Ravens won’t have to trade points to stay competitive in this game.

New England is having another terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 10-2 SU record.  Unfortunately for the Patriots, they lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Rob Gronkowski, to a back injury.  Gronkowski stretched opposing defenses, and he was New England’s best deep threat.  The Patriots’ offense will now be a one-man show with Julian Edleman, but more importantly for tonight’s game, New England’s offense will be less explosive and rely solely on dink and dunk passes to move the football down the field on the stout Baltimore defense.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAVENS (+).

Dallas comes into tonight’s game with the best record in football at 11-1, but their lone loss of the season came against tonight’s opponent.  The Cowboys lost 20-19 at home to the Giants way back in Week 1, and we expect another close game tonight.  Dallas is led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, and the pressure keeps building as the season goes on.  That has been evident recently as four of Dallas’ last six games have been decided by 6 points or less with two of their road wins during that stretch coming by just 2 and 5 points.  Dallas has blown out the bad teams this season, but they’ve won close games against good teams.   

New York’s 6-game winning streak came to an end with their 24-14 loss in Pittsburgh last week.  But that was a tough spot for the Giants as they were playing on a back-to-back road set.  New York returns home tonight, and we expect a strong bounce back effort.  New York’s offense has struggled at times this season, but they’ve played a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Giants’ defense has been terrific all season as they are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with the Giants in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

New Orleans hits the road after a terrible offensive performance at home against the Lions last week.  The Saints scored just 13 points in that loss; it was tied for their lowest scoring game of the season.  The last time they scored 13 points, the Saints scored 32 points in their next game, and we expect a similar outcome in this game.  New Orleans has scored 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, the Saints’ offense is averaging 28.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will now face a Tampa Bay defense that is giving up 25.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season. 

Tampa Bay’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  The Buccaneers have scored 24 points or more in five of their last seven games, and 28 points or more in four of those seven games.  Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 23.1 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been much better since their bye week as they are averaging 26.1 points per game over their last seven games.  Tampa Bay will now face a New Orleans defense that is allowing 27.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Arizona snapped their 2-game losing streak with a solid 31-23 win over the Washington Redskins last week.  The Cardinals will now hit the road for a very winnable game in Miami.  Arizona’s last two road games came in Minnesota against a stout defense, and in Atlanta against one of the best offenses in the league.  Those two games were also on back-to-back weeks, so the Cardinals were in tough spots against those opponents.  This game in Miami is a major drop in class for Arizona, so we expect a strong performance.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 23 points per game, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Cardinals will now face a Miami defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Miami comes into this game off a 38-6 blowout loss in Baltimore last week.  That loss snapped their 6-game winning streak, but we do not expect the Dolphins to bounce back strong off last week’s performance.  Miami’s recent six wins came against a mediocre slate of opponents; three of their last four wins came against the Jets, Rams, and 49ers.  And Miami did not dominate those bad teams as those three wins came by just 7, 4, and 4 points.  Overall, Miami’s offense is only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Miami will now face an Arizona defense that only gives up 20.9 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back Arizona in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

San Diego and Carolina match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  San Diego has scored 21 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season, and they’ve done that despite missing key personnel on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chargers had a bye recently, so they were able to get some of those players healthy and back on the field.  Overall, San Diego’s offense is averaging 27.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will now face a Carolina defense that has given up 75 total points in their last two games, and overall the Panthers are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home this season.

Carolina scored 55 total points in their previous two games prior to last Sunday night’s 7-point debacle in Seattle.  The Panthers now return home off that embarrassing performance while taking a big step-down in defensive class.  Carolina’s offense will play much better in this game, especially since they’ll be facing a San Diego defense that is giving up 26.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers have been worse on the road where they’ve given up 27.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Carolina’s offense is averaging a respectable 23.6 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.1 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland and Kansas City match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Chiefs beat the Raiders 26-10 back on October 16th, but that game was played on a muddy field in a driving rain storm.  The minimal offensive output was a direct result of the weather conditions.  Despite that, the two quarterbacks were able to complete 41 passes for 449 total yards thru the air.  While tonight’s game will be played in cold conditions, the ball and the field will be dry.  Oakland is averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Raiders’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.

The Chiefs have scored 26 points or more in five of their last eight games.  Kansas City scored 59 total points in their last two games, and their scoring should continue tonight against a poor Oakland defense.  The Raiders are allowing 24.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Kansas City is averaging 24.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Chiefs on Thursday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Carolina and Seattle have a history of playing high-scoring games.  In three meetings over the last two years, the teams have combined to score 55, 50, and 48 points.  Tonight’s game shouldn’t be any different.  The Panthers are averaging 25.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.9 points per game.  On the road, Carolina is averaging 27.2 points per game.  Seattle does possess a solid defense, but they’ve been vulnerable against good offenses this season.  In recent games against the Falcons, Saints, Bills, and Patriots, the Seahawks gave up 24 points or more to each of those opponents.  

Seattle returns home off an embarrassing 5-point offensive output in Tampa Bay last week.  The Seahawks were pathetic in that game, but we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Seattle has scored 26 points or more in four of their five home games this season.  Overall at home, the Seahawks are averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  They will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Seahawks on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington has scored 23 points or more in eight of their eleven games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 121 points in their last four games.  Washington’s offense will now face an Arizona defense that is in terrible current form.  The Cardinals have given up 30 points or more in three of their last four games while allowing an average of 29.5 points per game.  Arizona will likely be without safety Tyrann Mathieu who has a shoulder injury, so that opens the field up even more for Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Arizona returns home off back-to-back road losses where their offense underperformed.  The Cardinals scored just 43 total points in those games, but we expect a strong bounce back performance this afternoon.  Arizona is only averaging 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play, but they’ve faced defenses that only give up 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals will have success against a Washington defense that is allowing 24 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Tampa Bay and San Diego match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Buccaneers have scored 24 points or more in four of their last six games, and 28 points or more in three of those six games.  Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 22.6 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been much better since their bye week as they are averaging 25.8 points per game over their last six games.  Tampa Bay is also going from back-to-back games against strong defenses (Seahawks and Chiefs) to a San Diego defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

San Diego has scored 21 points or more in ten of their eleven games this season, and they’ve done that despite missing key personnel on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chargers had a bye prior to their last game, so they were able to get some of those players healthy and back on the field.  Overall, San Diego’s offense is averaging 28.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will now face a Tampa Bay defense that is giving up 24.0 points per game on 6.1 yards per play and allowed a franchise record 626 total yards versus another AFC West opponent (Oakland) this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Chargers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Kansas City comes into this game off a fortunate 30-27 overtime win in Denver last Sunday night.  The Chiefs will now hit the road for the second consecutive week off that draining game in altitude, and we don’t expect their luck to continue in this game.  Don’t be fooled by the 30 points scored by the Chiefs last week; they only had 7 offensive points before scoring the tying touchdown late.  Kansas City scored 20 points or less in their three previous games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face an Atlanta defense that has given up just 43 total points in their last two games.

Atlanta had a bye prior to their last game, so the Falcons are a much fresher team than Kansas City.  The Falcons waxed Arizona 38-19 last Sunday, so they also had a much easier game than the Chiefs.  Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic all season, especially at home where they are averaging 34.6 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Kansas City has solid defensive numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense is a major step-up in class for Kansas City’s defense, and the Chiefs’ offense will need to trade points in this game, but they haven’t shown any capability of doing that all season.  Kansas City also has a huge divisional game on deck at home versus Oakland in just four nights.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this non-conference game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Dallas will put their 10-game winning streak on the line tonight in Minnesota.  Both teams come into this game with normal rest after playing last Thursday night, so expect this game to be played to true form tonight.  The Cowboys are taking a step-up in defensive class against Minnesota after last facing the leaky Washington defense.  Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott will have a difficult time throwing the ball with any consistency on the fantastic Minnesota secondary.  That will force Dallas to run the ball a lot in this game.  The Cowboys already play a ball control style with running back Ezekiel Elliott, so expect him to get a lot of carries this evening.  Dallas will shorten this game with their style of play, so offensive possessions will be limited.

Minnesota returns home off a 16-13 loss at Detroit.  The Vikings will play this game without their head coach on the sideline.  Mike Zimmer had emergency eye surgery yesterday, so special teams coordinator Mike Priefer will be the interim head coach for this game.  Minnesota’s offense has been awful all season; the Vikings are only averaging 19.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Minnesota will now face a Dallas defense that allows just 19.4 points per game.  The Vikings know their defense will keep them in this game, so a conservative offensive game plan will be seen.  Look for a low-scoring game between the Cowboys and Vikings on Thursday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay is just 4-6 SU on the season, but five of their losses have come in their last six games.  The Packers are on a 4-game losing streak, and they are playing their third consecutive road game.  Green Bay also got blown out by 18 points (42-24) in Washington in their last game, and that was last Sunday night.  Off that national TV loss, and with everything else listed above, not many will want any part of Green Bay in this game and this line has now become inflated.  The Packers have some things working in their favor that will make them competitive tonight.  Green Bay is averaging 24.7 points per game versus defenses that give up just 23.2 points per game.  The Packers won’t have to trade points tonight as their defense is taking a big step-down in class against the inefficient Philadelphia offense after Green Bay has just faced four straight highly efficient offenses.

Philadelphia returns home off a 26-15 loss in Seattle.  The Eagles are a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, but that record isn’t as impressive when factoring in the opponents they played.  Philadelphia beat offensively challenged Cleveland and Minnesota at home, so their strong defensive numbers are a bit skewed.  In six games against efficient offenses this season, the Eagles are just 2-4 SU.  Philadelphia’s offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play, so Green Bay’s defense won’t be as bad tonight as they’ve been in recent games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Green Bay plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play PACKERS (+).

Kansas City comes into tonight’s game off a bad 19-17 home loss versus the Buccaneers last Sunday.  The Chiefs were 7-point home favorites in that game, and their offensive struggles were on full display.  Kansas City has scored 20 points or less in three consecutive games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a Denver defense that is only giving up 18.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.

Denver comes into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Broncos have won three of their previous four games after losing back-to-back games prior to that.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will have trouble moving the ball consistently, so we’ll back Denver in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

New England and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Patriots have scored 23 points or more in nine of their ten games, and 30 points or more in five of their ten games this season.  Overall, New England is averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots’ offense has been even better on the road where they are averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  New England will now face a New York defense that is allowing 24.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 20.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. 

New York’s offense has struggled this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 20.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets come into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong offensive performance this afternoon.  New York will face a New England defense that has faced a terrible group of opposing offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets’ offense is more than capable of scoring points as prior to their last game, they had scored 23 points or more in three consecutive games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Jets on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Carolina comes into this game with a 4-6 SU record, but the Panthers have been a much better team since their bye five weeks ago and they are now an underdog for the first time this season.  Carolina has won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming by just 3 points to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Overall, Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game.  On the road, the Panthers have been even better while averaging 26.0 points per game.  Carolina will now face a poor Oakland defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game on a whopping 7.4 yards per play and 9.9 yards per pass at home this season.

Oakland is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game against Carolina.  The Raiders will be playing on a short week after beating the Texans in Mexico on Monday night.  Oakland was clearly a gassed team from the high altitude, and on short rest, we don’t expect the Raiders to be at their best in this game, especially since the Raiders went into their last game off a bye.  Overall, Oakland’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they will now face an improving Carolina defense that has held their last four opponents to 20 points or less.  Carolina is catching Oakland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Panthers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

San Diego is just 4-6 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego has a huge scheduling advantage over Houston in this game.  The Chargers come into this game fresh off their bye while the Texans will be playing on short rest after a game in Mexico on Monday night.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of a Houston defense that was clearly gassed from the high altitude in Mexico.

Houston comes into this game with a 6-4 record, but the Texans may not be as good as their record indicates.  Houston’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Five of Houston’s six wins this season have come 7 points or less, and that is a clear indication that the Texans are a mediocre team at best.  Their defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston’s defense is taking a big step-up in class against the potent San Diego offense.  The Chargers are simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Washington and Dallas match-up well for a high-scoring game on Thursday.  The Redskins have scored 23 points or more in seven of their ten games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 95 points in their last three games.  Washington scored 23 points on 432 yards of total offense on Dallas’ defense back in their Week 2 matchup.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 28 passes for 364 yards in that game, and now he will face a depleted Dallas secondary that is missing a couple of starters. 

Dallas’ offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 26.8 points per game on a terrific 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Dallas’ overall average of 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys will have success against a Washington defense that is allowing 23.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Cowboys on Thursday.  

10* Play OVER the total.

This game will be played in Mexico.  Houston is 6-3 on the season, but all three of their losses have come on the road.  Those defeats came against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 21-9 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.2 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Raiders in this game, so we expect a solid offensive performance tonight.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak.  The Raiders scored 30 points or more in all three games, but they played a pair of bad teams in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Houston defense that is only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.4 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than what the Oakland offense has faced this season.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Houston plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play TEXANS (+).

Green Bay and Washington match up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Packers have scored 23 points or more in seven of their nine games this season.  Overall, Green Bay is averaging 24.8 points per game versus defenses that give up 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 109 points in their last four games.  Green Bay will now face a poor Washington defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.

Washington’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Redskins are averaging 24.6 points per game on a terrific 6.7 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Washington’s overall average of 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  The Redskins will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 30.0 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road.  Green Bay’s secondary has been terrible on the road where they are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Redskins on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Atlanta Falcons 24-15 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Cowboys and Giants, but those losses came by a combined 11 points.  In fact, all four of the Eagles’ losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 25.1 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.1 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 17.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Philadelphia has scored 20 points or more in all nine of their games this season, and in the four games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks’ three wins have come by 7 points or less.  

Seattle is 6-2-1 on the season as they return home off a high-scoring win in New England last Sunday night.  That was Seattle’s fifth consecutive close game with the average margin of victory only coming by 4 points per game.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Seattle is only averaging 21.4 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Tennessee and Indianapolis match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  In the first meeting of the season, these two teams scored a total of 60 points on just 753 yards of total offense.  Tennessee’s offense is averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Titans have scored 26 points or more in six straight games, and that streak will continue in this game, especially against a terrible Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are allowing 28.5 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play at home this season.

Indianapolis comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they’ll be ready to roll, especially since their last home game was an embarrassing 30-14 loss to Kansas City.  The Colts have scored 23 points or more in seven of their nine games this season.  Overall, Indianapolis is averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis will now face a poor Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Titans and Colts on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Buffalo comes into this game fresh off their bye, and since they went into it on a 3-game losing streak, we expect a peak performance against the Bengals.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 23.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in seven of their nine games this season, and in the seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 3-5-1 on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games.  The Bengals played in London three weeks ago, and last week they lost 21-20 in New York to the Giants on Monday night.  Cincinnati is now on a short week while their opponent has had an extra week of rest.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game.  Buffalo’s defense is only giving up 18.2 points per game on the road.  Buffalo is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Cincinnati and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Bengals come into this game fresh off their bye week, so they’ll be ready to roll.  Cincinnati has scored 58 total points in their last two games, and we expect more of the same tonight.  Overall, Cincinnati is only averaging 20.9 points per game.  However, the Bengals gain 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play, so their offense is much better than their scoring average suggests.  Cincinnati will now face a New York defense that is allowing 5.7 yards per play at home, so the Bengals should move the ball consistently in this game.

New York’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve actually played above average football on that side of the ball.  The Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  At home, New York’s offense is averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play, so they should have success against a Cincinnati defense that is allowing 27.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road.  The Giants are a passing offense and they average a fantastic 8.3 yards per pass at home this season.  They will now face a weak Cincinnati pass defense that allows 7.8 yards per pass on the road.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Bengals and Giants on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Seattle and New England will have the same game plan for tonight’s game, and that will be to throw the ball a lot.  The Seahawks had a breakout offensive game last week when they scored 31 points on Buffalo.  Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson had an efficient game as he completed 76.9% (20-26) of his passes for 282 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Wilson will also have success tonight against a New England secondary that has only faced one strong passing quarterback all season.  That came against Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton who completed 21 passes for 254 yards while scoring 17 points.

New England’s offense has been fantastic this season.  The Patriots are averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Keep in mind that New England’s seasonal numbers include four games in which QB Tom Brady did not play.  In four games this season, Brady has completed 73.1% of his passes while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt.  Overall, Brady has thrown for 1,319 yards with a 12/0 touchdown/interception ratio.  He will face a Seattle defense that was carved up by Matt Ryan and Drew Brees earlier this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Patriots on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Dallas was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot last week for their game in Cleveland, but the Cowboys played a perfect game in their 35-10 blowout win.  Dallas will now play a back-to-back road set for the first time this season, so the spot is even worse than last week.  Aside from last week’s game in Cleveland, the Cowboys have played three other road games this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games (Washington and Green Bay), and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  Now they are getting less points in Pittsburgh against the Steelers who are a better team than the others they’ve played.  Remember, the Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so it’s hard to imagine them overcoming another bad spot in consecutive weeks.

Pittsburgh returns home off an ugly 21-14 road loss in Baltimore last week.  The Steelers have now lost three consecutive games, but two of those defeats came without QB Ben Roethlisberger under center.  Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played with a backup quarterback in some games.  Still, the Steelers are averaging 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is primed for a peak performance while the Cowboys are taking a monumental step-up in class.  We’ll back Pittsburgh in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Kansas City and Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble scoring points on each other’s defense in this game.  The Chiefs have scored 24 points or more in five of their eight games this season.  They were held to 19 points last week against the Jaguars, but Kansas City played that game without QB Alex Smith and a slew of other offensive players.  Smith will be back under center for this game, so we expect a much better offensive performance.  Overall, the Chiefs are averaging 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a Carolina defense that is giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Carolina returns home off an ugly 13-10 win in Los Angeles.  The Panthers have played three of their last five games on the road, so a home game will bring out their best, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Carolina’s offense is averaging 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City’s defense is giving up 21.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay and Tennessee match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Packers have scored 23 points or more in six of their eight games this season.  Overall, Green Bay is averaging 24.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 22.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 84 points in their last three games.  Green Bay will now face a poor Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offense that only average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.   

Tennessee’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve actually played above average football on that side of the ball.  The Titans are averaging 24.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Titans are averaging 6.2 yards per play at home this season, so they will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road.  Green Bay’s secondary has been terrible while allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and since Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home, the Titans offense will have success thru the air.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Titans on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-9 SU, and the Browns put in a pathetic effort in their 35-10 home loss to Dallas last Sunday.  However, Cleveland will now play with legitimate revenge tonight after blowing a 20-0 first quarter home lead against Baltimore back in Week 2.  The Browns went on to lose that game 25-20, so we expect a focused effort in this rematch tonight.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense is finally at full strength, so they’ll play much better than they did last week.  Winless underdogs are a long-term 60% ATS play at this point in the season.

Baltimore came off their bye last week to beat Pittsburgh 21-14.  But that was another phony win by the Ravens as they scored on a 95-yard broken play and a blocked punt return.  Their only sustained offense resulted in two field goals.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and his numbers are way down because of it.  The Ravens shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, so we’ll back Cleveland in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

Buffalo has been a streaky team so far this season.  The Bills opened the season with back-to-back losses before winning four consecutive games.  Buffalo comes into tonight’s game in Seattle off two straight losses, so we certainly expect a strong effort from the Bills tonight, especially with a bye week on deck.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in six of their eight games this season, and in the two games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks lost and won the other game by just 2 points.

Seattle is 4-2-1 SU on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games with another big road game at New England on Sunday night.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season despite facing a collection of poor defenses.  Seattle is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson is clearly playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Monday night football.

10* Play BILLS (+).

Denver is back to their winning ways after two straight dominating victories by a combined score of 54-28.  The Broncos had lost their previous two games to the Falcons and Chargers, but they’ve righted their ship in the last two games.  Denver has an exceptional defense once again this season.  The Broncos are only giving up 17.0 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, Denver is only allowing 15 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game off a fortunate overtime win in Tampa Bay last Sunday.  The Raiders trailed by a touchdown with just over a minute to play before forcing overtime.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Denver defense that is giving up -8.7 points per game and -1.0 yards per play less than what they have seen.  The Broncos hold a substantial defensive edge in this game as the Raiders are allowing 25.4 points per game on a horrendous 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 24.8 ppg and 5.8 yppl).  We’ll back Denver in this game for first place in the AFC West division on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS.

New Orleans and San Francisco match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Saints have scored 21 points or more in six of their seven games, and 25 points or more in five of their seven games this season.  Overall, New Orleans is averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints’ offense will now face a terrible San Francisco defense that is allowing 31.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 23.1 ppg and 5.7 yppl).

San Francisco’s offense has struggled this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up only 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The 49ers come into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong offensive performance this afternoon.  San Francisco will face a poor New Orleans defense that has given up 30.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average just 25.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Saints and 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER (Saints/49ers).

Jacksonville is just 2-5 on the season, and they come off an ugly 36-22 national TV loss to the Titans on a Thursday night.  Nobody will want any part of the Jaguars in this game, but this is a good bounce back spot for the team.  Jacksonville has played a tough schedule, but they’ve been a competitive team in four of their seven games.  Jacksonville’s offense has underperformed, so they fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson.  With extra time to prepare, we expect a spirited effort out of the Jacksonville offense this afternoon.  Kansas City’s defense has alternated good games and bad games this season, and if that pattern holds, look for a poor performance from the Chiefs stop unit.

Kansas City comes into this game with a 5-2 record, and the Chiefs are on a 3-game winning streak.  However, Kansas City has underachieved on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chiefs’ offense is only averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  And that was with their full compliment of starters.  Kansas City will be without QB Alex Smith (concussion), running back Jamal Charles (knee), and running back Spencer Ware (concussion).  The Chiefs’ second unit offense will face a Jacksonville defense that is only giving up 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll take Jacksonville plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Dallas was fortunate to win at home against the Eagles last Sunday night.  The Cowboys trailed 23-13 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to win in overtime.  Dallas will now hit the road off that big divisional win, and they are are simply laying way too many points.  The Cowboys have played three road games so far this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games, and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having them lay more than a touchdown on the road off a big spotlight win cannot be a good thing, especially with another big game at Pittsburgh next week.

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-8 SU, but winless dogs at this point in the season are a long-term 60% ATS play, plus the Browns have been a competitive team in the majority of their games.  The Browns have only played three home games, and they should have won two of those games.  They lost by 5 points to the Ravens and by 3 points to the Jets last week.  Cleveland is at home for the second consecutive week for the first time this season, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Overall, Cleveland is averaging 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense will finally be at full strength, and since they are catching Dallas in a bad spot, we’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

Atlanta is 5-3 SU on the season, but the Falcons are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Tampa Bay.  The Falcons are off three consecutive close, high-scoring games while now traveling on a short week and laying points on the road.  Atlanta’s last three games were all decided by 3 points or less with one of those games going into overtime.  The Falcons have to be fatigued, and that may show tonight, especially since they’ve had less time to recover.  Atlanta’s defense has been terrible all season; the Falcons are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average just 25.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay is winless at home this season, but their three losses have come against Oakland, Denver, and Los Angeles who are a combined 15-8 SU on the season.  The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31-24 in Atlanta back in Week 1, and they know they are capable of winning again.  Quarterback Jameis Winston had a terrific game as he completed 71.9% (23-for-32) of his passes for 281 yards with 4 touchdown passes and one interception.  There’s no reason Winston can’t repeat that performance tonight, especially since Atlanta’s defense has gotten progressively worse since that first meeting.  Tampa Bay matches up well against Atlanta as the Bucs are 3-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons, plus Tampa's defensive coordinator is now Mike Smith who was the former head coach for Atlanta.  We’ll back the Buccaneers plus the points in this home game on Thursday night.

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Minnesota and Chicago come into tonight’s game from opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU/ATS on the season with their lone loss coming last week at Philadelphia.  The Bears are just 1-6 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming by just 3 points over a poor Detroit team.  Minnesota has built their record by beating bad teams, but despite that, they’ve played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Vikings are averaging 21.5 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Chicago’s defense is only allowing 20 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season, so they should be able to contain Minnesota's weak offensive unit tonight.

Chicago has had a terrible season so far, but the Bears have at least been competitive on their home field.  The Bears are just 1-2 SU at home, but one of their losses came by just a single point (17-16) while the other loss came against a decent Eagles squad.  Chicago’s offense is only averaging 15.9 points per game, but they are gaining 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.8 yppl) which makes the Bears' points per game average misleading.  Chicago will put quarterback Jay Cutler back under center tonight, so maybe he can provide a little more pop.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll back Chicago plus the points at home on Monday night football.

10* Play BEARS (+).

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Minnesota Vikings 21-10 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Lions and Redskins, but those losses came by a combined 8 points.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 26 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.8 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 14.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Dallas comes into tonight’s game off their bye, but that’s not a good thing considering they had won five consecutive games.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having their momentum halted mid-season may have a negative impact on how they perform tonight, especially against a strong Philadelphia defense.  Dallas has faced soft defenses so far this season, but tonight they will face a defense that is giving up 9 points per game and 0.2 yards per play less than what they have seen.  We’ll take the points in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Oakland and Tampa Bay match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Raiders have scored 28 points or more in five of their seven games this season.  In their game against Kansas City, the Raiders only scored 10 points, but that game was played in a monsoon which prevented Oakland from throwing the ball effectively.  Overall, the Raiders are averaging 26.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oakland’s offense has actually been better on the road where they are averaging 28.2 points per game.  Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed 37 and 27 points in their two home games this season.  

Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buccaneers scored 34 points on the 49ers last week, and we expect another strong offensive performance this afternoon.  Tampa Bay will face a poor Oakland defense that has given up 25.6 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oakland’s secondary has been atrocious while allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

New York and Cleveland shouldn’t have much trouble scoring points on each other’s defense in this game.  The Jets have scored 22 points or more in just three of their seven games this season, but those three games all came against poor defenses.  They were held to 17 points or less in their other four games against the Cardinals, Seahawks, Steelers, and Chiefs.  Overall, the Jets have faced a group of defenses that is only giving up 19.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York will now face a horrendous Cleveland defense that is allowing opponents to score 29.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  They’ve allowed those poor numbers against offenses that only average 22.4 points per pass on 6.0 yards per play.

Cleveland returns home off back-to-backs road losses, and in fact, the Browns have played four of their last five games on the road.  Overall, this will only be Cleveland’s third home game of the season.  Their last home game came against New England when Tom Brady was making his season debut.  The Browns’ offense has poor numbers, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only allow 20.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  New York’s defense is giving up 28.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road, so Cleveland’s offense will breakout, especially with veteran QB Josh McCown back under center.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Jets and Browns on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit and Houston both come into today’s game with 4-3 records on the season, but there’s no doubt that the Texans have played the much tougher schedule.  The Lions opened the year at 1-3 despite playing bad teams like the Colts, Titans, and Bears.  Detroit has played their last three games at home while going 3-0 versus the Eagles, Rams, and Redskins.  However, all three of those games were close and decided late; they beat the Eagles 24-23, the Rams 31-28, and the Redskins 20-17 on a last second touchdown last week.  Now Detroit must hit the road off three consecutive tough games while facing a team that is undefeated on their home field.  Detroit’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.

Houston’s three losses this season have come on the road against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 16-4 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.8 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Lions in this game, so we expect a breakout offensive performance this afternoon.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Jacksonville is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they have played a tough schedule.  The Jaguars have also been a competitive team in four of their six games, and against an opponent on their level tonight, they’ll be in this game from the start at Tennessee.  Jacksonville’s offense has yet to get going this season, but again, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that give up 24.2 points per game.  The Jaguars will now face a Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.

Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-4 SU record, and the Titans may actually be worse than their record indicates, especially since they are just 2-5 ATS.  Tennessee has played a weak schedule yet they have still underachieved greatly.  Tennessee’s offense is only averaging 20.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Jacksonville’s defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play, so Tennessee’s offense will struggle to move the ball with consistency in this game.  We’ll back Jacksonville in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Houston and Denver both come into tonight’s game with 4-2 records on the season, but one can argue that the Texans have played the tougher schedule.  Houston’s two losses came to New England and Minnesota, and both of those games were on the road.  The Patriots and Vikings are a combined 11-2 SU on the season.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Texans will certainly face another tough defense tonight in Denver, but we expect the Texans to stay in this game with their defense.

Denver has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Broncos are only averaging 23.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Broncos tonight as they’ll face a Houston defense that is only giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Denver will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game, and that will prevent them from winning this game by more than a touchdown.  We’ll back Houston on Monday night football.

10* Play TEXANS (+).

Seattle comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with a good looking 4-1 record on the season.  However, the Seahawks have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  Seattle is only averaging 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Seahawks tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 12.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  Seattle will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 3-3 on the season, but the Cardinals just got quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field last week.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 25.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game, so they’ve been much better than Seattle on that side of the ball.  We’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

San Diego and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Chargers come into this game off a poor offensive performance at home versus Denver on a Thursday night; they only scored 21 points on 265 yards of total offense.  However, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, so that performance can be forgiven.  San Diego’s offense will bounce back with a much better performance today, especially since they are facing an Atlanta defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Falcons are giving up 32.0 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season with those games averaging 68.0 total points scored.

Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 36 points per game on a whopping 7.7 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Matt Ryan has completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Ryan has thrown for 2,075 yards with a 15/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a San Diego defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Chargers’ secondary is allowing 316 passing yards per game and 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the road, so Ryan will throw the ball all over the field in this game.  The Falcons are 5-1 to the Over this season with an average of 60.9 total points per game, while the Chargers are 4-2 to the Over with an average 54.6 total points per game (4-1 Over and 58.8 ppg if you remover the Denver game).  Look for a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Redskins have scored 23 points or more in four of their six games this season, and all of those games have come outside in the elements.  This will be Washington’s first game inside a dome, and on a fast track, we expect a strong offensive performance.  Overall, the Redskins are averaging 23.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins is averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and he will now face a terrible Detroit secondary that has given up a league-high 17 touchdown passes while allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt against offenses that only average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.

Detroit comes into this game off back-to-back home wins after their offense scored a total of 55 points in those two games.  Overall, the Lions’ offense is averaging 25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus a collection of defenses that only allow 22.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  Washington’s defense is giving up 23.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play despite playing struggling offenses like the Giants, Ravens, and Browns.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore returns to New York for the second consecutive week after losing 27-23 to the Giants last Sunday.  The Ravens are now 3-3 on the season after opening with a perfect 3-0 record.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and he missed two days of practice this week because of it.  Baltimore will also be without their best pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil (foot), Terrell Suggs (biceps), linebacker C.J. Mosley (thigh), wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. (ankle), and lineman Marshal Yanda (shoulder) are all out as well.  The Ravens are a mash unit right now, so the Jets are catching them at the right time.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Jets come into this game with a 1-5 record.  But to their defense, they’ve played a brutal schedule against teams like Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The Jets have also played four of their six games on the road, including four of their last five games.  New York’s last home game came three weeks ago, so they will be primed for a big effort in front of their fans this afternoon.  New York’s offense has struggled mightily, so Geno Smith will start at quarterback in hopes of turning things around.  Smith’s mobility will play a key role in this game, especially since Baltimore’s front seven is decimated by injuries.  We’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).

Chicago comes into this game with a 1-5 SU/ATS record, and the Bears are just as bad as their record indicates.  Chicago is off back-to-back tough losses; they lost 29-23 at Indianapolis after blowing a 4th quarter lead, and last week they lost 17-16 at home to Jacksonville after blowing a fourth quarter lead once again.  Now they must travel on a short week and face a motivated Green Bay team off a home loss.  Chicago’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Bears are only averaging 16.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.4 points per game.

Green Bay is 3-2 SU/ATS on the season, but their two losses have come against the Vikings and Cowboys who are a combined 10-1 SU on the season.  The Packers lost 30-16 at home to Dallas last week, so we can expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense has yet to get going this season, but they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Packers will now face a Chicago defense that is allowing 27.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a peak performance by Green Bay, so we’ll back the Packers in this home divisional game on Thursday night.

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New York comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with just a 1-4 SU record on the season.  The Jets have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  New York is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Jets tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 15.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 2-3 SU on the season, but the Cardinals will get quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field tonight, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 20.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense will have a strong game tonight as they’ll be facing a New York defense that is giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Jets pass defense has been horrendous, allowing 72% completions and 8.7 yards per pass in all games (versus opponents that average just 6.9 ypp).  Arizona is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll back the Cardinals at home on Monday night football.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Indianapolis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Houston.  The Colts played in London two weeks ago, and they returned home to play the Bears last week.  Teams usually have a bye following the long travel to London, but the Colts did not.  Now they will be on the road again after a comeback high-scoring game last week.  Indianapolis beat Chicago 29-23 despite trailing by 4 points with less than 4 minutes to play in that game.  The Colts’ defense is terrible as they are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Houston comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but they’ve lost two of their last three games.  The Texans lost at New England and at Minnesota, so there’s no shame in losing to two of the best teams in the league, especially on the road.  Houston is taking a major step-down in class tonight against Indianapolis, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Texans’ offense has poor seasonal numbers overall, but those numbers are skewed due to their shutout loss at New England and their 13-point performance in Minnesota last week.  At home, the Texans are averaging 23 points per game, so they should have little trouble scoring on the Colts.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Cincinnati and New England will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Bengals were terrible on offense last week as they only scored 14 points at Dallas.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Cincinnati’s offense is primed for a bounce back scoring performance on a fast track in New England.  Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt despite facing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game on 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  Dalton will now face a New England secondary that has faced a slew of terrible opposing quarterbacks that cannot throw the football effectively.  The Patriots’ defense has allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempts against offenses that only average 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

New England is 4-1 on the season, including 1-0 with quarterback Tom Brady under center.  Brady played for the first time last week, and he led New England to 33 points on 501 yards of total offense in Cleveland.  Brady will now make his first home appearance of the season, and we expect a duplicate performance this afternoon.  New England’s offense has faced a collection of defenses that only allow 22.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati’s defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road despite playing the Jets, Cowboys, and Steelers which came in a driving rain storm.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bengals and Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but the Ravens are much worse than their winning record indicates.  Baltimore opened the season at 3-0, but they won each of those games by 6 points or less.  The Ravens beat the Bills 13-7 at home before winning back-to-back road games at Cleveland (25-20) and at Jacksonville (19-17).  They should have lost both of those games, but they got extremely fortunate and won in the final minutes.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  New York’s defense has been terrific this season; they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Giants come into this game with a 2-3 record.  They won their first two games of the season, but they are currently on a 3-game losing streak.  However, New York played at Minnesota and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks.  There’s no shame in losing those two games.  New York’s last home game resulted in a 29-27 loss to Washington, so we can expect the Giants to bring their ‘A’ game this afternoon.  New York’s offense has yet to get going this season, but to their defense, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We expect a peak performance by New York, so we’ll back the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (-).