Michigan State is 8-1 SU during their last nine games, and they come into this game off four solid tournament wins.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was ridiculous.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Spartans have played overtime twice in their last six games, and if we eliminate those two games, their defense has been even better.  Michigan State has held their other four opponents to 58 points or less on combined shooting of just 34.7% (76-for-219) from the field.

Duke won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their next game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but on offense the Aztecs were one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-for-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-for-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke then faced a Utah team that had an elite offense (1.12 points per possession) and defense (0.89 points per possession).  The Blue Devils survived Utah despite shooting just 44.4% (20-for-45) from the field and 33.3% (3-for-9) from three-point land.  Duke then took their third consecutive jump in class against Gonzaga and Duke pulled away late thanks to a missed layup that would have tied the game with 5:00 remaining and caused a downward spiral for Gonzaga, along with some questionable whistles by the officials.  Duke will now face their toughest opponent as Michigan State is playing their best basketball of the season.  The Spartans are much better than their overall 27-11 SU record indicates as they have played an incredible eight overtime games this season, going just 3-5 SU which means they are 24-6 SU in all other games.  We'll take the points in this game on Saturday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Stanford comes into tonight’s game with a 22-13 record while Old Dominion has a solid 27-7 record.  Stanford has the name recognition, and therefore the oddsmakers had no choice but to make them the favorites in this game.  However, based on my raw power ratings, Old Dominion should be a 2-point favorite in this game.  After adjusting for strength of schedule, Stanford should be at max a 2-point favorite.  There’s value on Old Dominion in this game, especially now that the line has gone up to Stanford -3.  The Cardinal need to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, Stanford is not going to get their preferred pace in this game.  Stanford has been held to 70 points or less in seven games away from home this season.  The Cardinal are just 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Stanford’s defense has been atrocious away from home this season.  The Cardinal are giving up 76.5 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.

Old Dominion is a terrific team that has a fantastic defense.  The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace while their defense only allows 0.90 points per possession.  Old Dominion’s defense has been terrific all season as they are holding opponents to just 56.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  Old Dominion has held 31 of their 34 opponents to 69 points or less, and they’ll do it again tonight against Stanford.  Old Dominion owns a huge defensive edge in this game, and their slow pace will take Stanford out of their comfort zone.  We’ll take the points with the Monarchs in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play OLD DOMINION (+).

Miami Florida and Temple play a similar style of basketball as both teams like to play at a slower pace while running offensive sets in the half-court.  Miami opened as a small 1-point favorite, but money has come in on Temple making them a 1-point favorite and the line has risen even higher to -1.5 at some of the more public and square sportsbooks.  My power ratings agree with the opener, and after adjusting for strength of schedule, my numbers say Miami should be a 3-point favorite.  The reason the line likely moved is because Miami guard Angel Rodriguez is doubtful with a wrist injury.  However, Rodriguez is a poor outside shooter (30% three-point range) and he has already missed the past two NIT games and Miami went a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS, so this injury is overrated.  The Hurricanes have been more impressive against tougher opponents this season than Temple.  Miami won at Florida and at Duke, and they only lost by 5 points at Notre Dame and by 2 points at Louisville.  The Hurricanes are battle tested, and they’ve proven they can hang with the good teams away from home.  Overall, Miami has a solid offense and a solid defense.  The Hurricanes average 1.06 points per possession on offense and they only allow 0.98 points per possession on defense.

Temple was awful early in the season, but the Owls were much improved late in the season.  However, Temple played an extremely weak schedule, and when they had to step-up in class, their results were poor.  Temple lost by 20 points to Duke, 23 points to Villanova, 16 points to Tulsa, and 13 points to SMU.  Temple has to rely on their defense to win because their offense is not good; the Owls only average 0.99 points per possession.  Overall, Temple averages just 59.6 points per game on 34.1% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land in neutral court games this season.  Miami is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Hurricanes in this game on Tuesday night.        

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

Duke is obviously a good team as they come into this game with a 32-4 record.  They won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their next game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but an offense that was one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke then faced a Utah team that had an elite offense (1.12 points per possession) and defense (0.89 points per possession).  The Blue Devils survived Utah despite shooting just 44.4% (20-45) from the field and 33.3% (3-9) from three-point land.  Now Duke will be taking their third consecutive jump in class, and since Gonzaga is rated higher than Duke in my power ratings, the Blue Devils are a clear play against in this game. 

Gonzaga’s road to the Elite 8 has been an easy one, and they haven’t had to extend themselves.  The Bulldogs have dominated all three of their opponents, so they are still a fresh team late in the tournament.  This year’s Gonzaga team is the best that has played in the tournament, and not one of their paper tiger teams that got knocked out early.  Gonzaga has a terrific +16.9 point differential this season, and that shows how dominant of a team they’ve been.  The Bulldogs’ defense is outstanding as they are holding opponents to just 61.7 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Gonzaga offense is averaging 78.6 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga should be favored in this game, so there’s a lot of value which means we’ll take the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Sunday night.       

9* Play GONZAGA (+).

Louisville comes into this game with a 27-8 record, but the Cardinals are certainly a surprise to still be playing.  The Cardinals are a good team, but they are up against it in this game against Michigan State.  Louisville had two easy opponents in UC Irvine and NC State, and they upset Northern Iowa after playing way over their heads on offense.  Louisville’s offense is extremely weak as they only average 1.03 points per possession.  Overall, the Cardinals average 68.9 points per game, but they only shoot 43.1% from the field and 30.6% from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Louisville’s offense has been even worse while averaging just 63.4 points per game.  Louisville imposes their will by playing slow, half-court basketball while trying to wear opponents out with their press.  But their usual edge will be missing in this game as Michigan State is quite content in playing a physical, defensive grinder. 

Michigan State is 7-1 over their last eight games, and they come into this game off three solid tournament wins.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Sunday afternoon.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Notre Dame has had a nice season as the Irish come into this game with a 32-5 record.  Notre Dame had an easy draw in their first two games of this tournament with games against Northeastern and a banged-up Butler team.  Despite the weaker opponents, Notre Dame could have very well lost either of those games; they only beat Northeastern 69-65 and they needed overtime to beat Butler 67-64.  Notre Dame then took a major step-up in class against Wichita State, a team with a very strong defense.  The Irish shot incredibly well in that game as they hit 55.6% (30-54) from the field and 47.4% (9-19) from three-point land.  Notre Dame shot that well against a Wichita State defense that only gave up 0.88 points per possession.  Notre Dame is now facing the best defense in the country as Kentucky only gives up 0.81 points per possession, and it’s highly unlikely the Irish will repeat their shooing performance in this game.  If their three’s are not falling, Notre Dame will get run out of the gym in this game.     

Kentucky is obviously the best team in the country, and we expect the Wildcats to strut their stuff tonight.  Kentucky hasn’t played their ‘A’ game yet in this tournament, but with Notre Dame getting all the publicity for their last game, we expect Kentucky to go all out in this game.  Kentucky is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.14 points per possession while only giving up 0.81 points per possession.  Overall, Kentucky averages 74.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s defense is only allowing 53.5 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Notre Dame’s weakness is defense, especially on the road where they allow 68.9 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky is the superior team with the significantly better defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.          

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Arizona has played exceptional basketball all season.  The Wildcats come into this game with a sterling 34-3 record, and they’ve won fourteen consecutive games.  Arizona is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.12 points per possession and only give up 0.86 points per possession.  Overall, Arizona averages 76.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is only giving up 59 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona has also faced the tougher opponents to reach the Elite 8 based on my power ratings, including an easy win over a severely under-seeded Ohio State team.     

Wisconsin’s path to the Elite 8 has been easier than Arizona’s, and the Badgers should have lost to North Carolina on Thursday night.  Wisconsin has been flirting with losses recently as they’ve trailed by 7 points or more in a slew of recent games before rallying back to win.  Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  Arizona scores 56% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin’s offense is highly efficient with 30% of their points coming from 3-point range, but Arizona’s perimeter defense is strong as only 27% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  These two teams are real close, but with Arizona having the defensive edge, we’ll back the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

Oklahoma is a good team with a terrific head coach in Lon Kruger, but the Sooners are up against it in this game against Michigan State.  Oklahoma got two dream setups for their first two games of the tournament, but the Sooners were sluggish in both games.  In their first game, Oklahoma played an overmatched Albany team that upset their conference tournament on a last-second shot.  Oklahoma then faced Dayton in their second game, and the Flyers were playing their third game in five days, and their sixth game in ten days.  Despite their opponents being in terrible scheduling and situational spots, Oklahoma only won both games by single digits.  Oklahoma wasn’t a good road team this season as they went just 5-6 in true road games, and just 10-9 overall away from home.  The Sooners only have a +1.2 point differential in away games this season while Michigan State is 13-7 in away games with a +5.3 point differential.  Those numbers clearly show that the Spartans played much better basketball than the Sooners away from home this season.

Michigan State is 6-1 over their last seven games, and they come into this game off a pair of solid tournament wins.  The Spartans completely dominated Virginia from the opening tip in their last game, and the Cavaliers would have been my second highest rated team if they made the Sweet 16.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.1 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans on Friday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Duke is obviously a good team as they come into tonight’s game with a 31-4 record.  They won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their last game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but an offense that was one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke will now face a Utah team that is elite on both ends of the court as their offense averages 1.12 points per possession while their defense holds opponents to just 0.89 points per possession.  Duke is taking a monumental step-up in class versus Utah in this game.     

Utah won a difficult match-up against Stephen F. Austin in their first tournament game.  The Utes then took care of Georgetown rather easily, and now we expect Utah to take Duke right down to the wire.  Utah has their best team in a decade, and they match-up extremely well against Duke.  Utah has a terrific +14.1 point differential this season, and that shows how dominant of a team they’ve been.  The Utes’ defense is outstanding as they are holding opponents to just 57.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Utah offense is averaging 71.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Utah is just as good as Duke, so we’ll take the points with the Utes in this game on Friday night.       

9* Play UTAH (+).

North Carolina is playing at a much higher level now than they were earlier this season.  Going into the ACC tournament, North Carolina was just 4-6 SU over their previous ten games.  Now the Tar Heels are 5-1 SU during their past six games since the start of the ACC tournament with their lone loss coming in the title game to Notre Dame.  UNC's forward Kennedy Meeks is doubtful tonight due to a knee injury, however Meeks has been less of an offensive factor during the past month, averaging just 7.1 points in the past eight games, compared to 12.8 ppg in his first 28 games.  In their two NCAA tournament games, North Carolina has been impressive because they’ve had to play two totally different styles.  In their first game against Harvard, the Tar Heels had to face an extremely slow, half-court team and they squeaked out a 67-65 win.  Then UNC had to face the extremely fast-paced, full-court press of Arkansas for a full 40 minutes; the Tar Heels won 87-78.  Now North Carolina will now face Wisconsin who has the reputation of a slow, half-court team.  But the Badgers have played more of an offensive style this season, so North Carolina won’t be forced into a half-court grinder in this game.  North Carolina’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they are averaging 75.4 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina has also played much tougher opponents than Wisconsin in the tournament according to my power ratings.

Wisconsin’s path to the Sweet 16 has been easy as the Badgers faced a pair of low-rated teams.  Tonight’s game against North Carolina is going to be extremely difficult for Wisconsin because they simply do not have the quickness to match-up with the Tar Heels.  In their game against Arkansas, it was obvious that North Carolina’s speed off the dribble was overwhelming to the Razorbacks, and they are a quick team.  The Badgers are much slower than Arkansas, so it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to keep North Carolina from driving to the basket.  Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  North Carolina scores a whopping 64% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin’s offense is highly efficient with 30% of their points coming from 3-point range and 52% of their points coming from 2-point range.  But North Carolina’s perimeter defense is strong (28% of points allowed) while their interior defense has been tremendous (49% of points allowed).  North Carolina is a poor match-up for Wisconsin, so we’ll take the points in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (+).

Notre Dame has had a nice season as the Irish come into this game with a 31-5 SU record.  Notre Dame had an easy draw in their first two games of this tournament facing Northeastern and a banged-up Butler team.  Despite the weaker opponents, Notre Dame could have very well lost both of those games; they only beat Northeastern 69-65 and they needed overtime to beat Butler 67-64.  Notre Dame is now taking a major step-up in class against Wichita State, and a repeat of either of their first two games will get them run off the court tonight.  The Irish are a perfect 5-0 during their last five games, but they haven’t been too impressive in any of those wins.  Notre Dame only has a +6.4 point differential in those games despite their offense averaging 74 points per game while shooting an incredible 50.6% from the field and 38.2% from three-point land.  With offensive numbers like that, Notre Dame should have been winning in blowouts.  Notre Dame’s weakness is defense, especially on the road where they allow 68.9 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.

Wichita State comes into this game with a 30-4 SU record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a 2-seed as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, including Notre Dame who is a #3 seed.  Wichita State has been terrific on offense in the tournament; the Shockers have scored 159 points in their two games.  Overall, Wichita State has an efficient offense that averages 69.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State’s defense has held 31 of their 34 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 56.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 34.0% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is the better team with the significantly better defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Louisville was very fortunate to escape with a win over UC Irvine on Friday.  The Cardinals won that game 57-55 on a pair of free throws with seconds remaining.  Louisville played a terrible game, and that was against a mediocre team.  Louisville’s opponent in this game is a major step-up in class, and if they repeat that performance, they’ll have no shot in this game.  Louisville plays at a slow pace, and they are a solid defensive team.  However, their opponent plays exactly the same way, only Northern Iowa does it exceptionally better on the offensive end of the court.  The Cardinals’ offense has not been good all season as they average 68.8 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense will struggle mightily against the stout Northern Iowa defense in this game.                

Northern Iowa is a very good team that got shafted with a #5 seed.  The Panthers come into today’s game with a 31-3 record, and based on my power ratings, they should have been a #3 seed.  Northern Iowa is a hungry and humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Louisville in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 54.3 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Panthers also own a highly efficient offense that shoots 48.2% from the field and 40.1% from three-point land.  Northern Iowa is better than Louisville despite the teams playing the same style, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Sunday night.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 28-6 record this season, and their #4 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home this season, and their inability to get consistent stops will ultimately be their downfall in this tournament.  The Terrapins give up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland’s offense has also struggled mightily away from home this season.  The Terrapins are only averaging 64.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land.   

West Virginia plays to the personality of their head coach Bob Huggins.  The Mountaineers are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court.  West Virginia is back to being a healthy team, so we expect them to play to their early season level.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been significantly better this year as they are averaging 73.8 points per game.  West Virginia has played terrific offense in neutral court games this season as they are averaging 79 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  West Virginia has a lot of upside now that they have a healthy roster while Maryland’s fortunate season comes to an end.  We’ll back West Virginia in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Kansas is one of the phoniest #2 seeds in recent memory, and my power ratings believe the Jayhawks should have been seeded much lower.  Kansas had an easy win on Friday against an overmatched New Mexico State team, but things will be much different in this game.  Kansas is now the overmatched team, and the Jayhawks are likely to be exposed in this game.  Kansas is only 8-5 SU during their last thirteen games with two wins over Baylor, two wins over TCU, a win over Texas, and a win over Texas Tech.  Clearly, Kansas has beat nothing in terms of competition, and this game against Wichita State is a major step-up in class.  The Jayhawks’ offense has struggled mightily away from home this season.  Kansas is only averaging 66.8 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field.  The Jayhawks shot well over their heads in their last game as they hit 54% (27-50) from the field and 69.2% (9-13) from three-point land.  Kansas should regress sharply in this game, especially against stout Wichita State defense off a poor performance.

Wichita State comes into this game with a 29-4 SU record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a much better seeding as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, and greater than Kansas who is a #2 seed.  Wichita State knows they got the shaft, and we expect a big effort, especially since in-state school Kansas has refused to play them in the regular season.  Wichita State has held 30 of their 33 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 56.4 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State also has an efficient offense that averages 69 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Shockers in this game on Sunday.          

10* Play WICHITA STATE (+).

Virginia is obviously having an excellent season as they come into this game with an impressive 30-3 record.  But Virginia is just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over their last four games with their two wins coming over inferior teams Belmont and Florida State.  The Cavaliers’ two losses have come against Louisville and North Carolina, and now they are playing a Michigan State team that is better than both of those two teams.  Virginia is basically maxed out, both in terms of talent and what they can do on the court.  The team can’t go any higher, and their recent play has actually suggested they are on the way down.  Tony Bennett is an excellent coach and Virginia plays tremendous team defense, but this game is simply a terrible matchup for the Cavaliers.  Virginia is used to playing in defensive grinders, but the Spartans are also comfortable playing in a slugfest.  That eliminates Virginia’s biggest edge of controlling the pace and playing half-court basketball, and that will be a major factor in this game.

Michigan State is 5-1 over their last six games, and they come into today’s game off a solid win over Georgia on Friday.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.4 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is undervalued in this game, and since Virginia has already peaked out, we’ll take the points with the Spartans on Sunday afternoon.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Arkansas had an extremely difficult match-up with Wofford in their first game, and we are impressed that the Razorbacks were able to win that game.  Wofford slowed the game to a crawl, taking Arkansas out of their comfort zone.  Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against North Carolina.  Because of that, we expect a much better performance by the Razorbacks in this game.  Arkansas has an explosive offense that is averaging 77.4 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Razorbacks’ style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, and they will not be in awe of North Carolina’s speed and pace.  Arkansas is just as good as North Carolina, and this game will come right down to the final whistle.       

North Carolina is not a fundamentally sound team at all, and Arkansas usually feasts on teams like this.  The Tar Heels overwhelm opponents with their pace of play, and most times, North Carolina simply has the better players.  But that is not the case at all against Arkansas, so the Tar Heels’ normal advantages are negated.  North Carolina’s defense allows 70.9 points per game away from home this season, and they are 0-6 SU the last six times they gave up 70 points or more.  Based on the expected pace of this game, Arkansas is just about a sure thing to easily eclipse the 70-point mark in this game.  These two teams are equals, and since my power ratings only make North Carolina a 1-point favorite, we’ll take the points with Arkansas in this game on Saturday night.                     

10* Play ARKANSAS (+).

Game analysis will be ready at 1 pm ET.

9* Play UTAH (-).

NC State is a pretty good team, but Villanova is significantly better.  The Wolfpack were fortunate to advance as LSU simply gave the game away on Thursday night.  NC State played much better basketball on their home court this season, and they were extremely vulnerable when playing on the road.  That was clearly evident against LSU, and now NC State is taking a monumental step-up in class, and we don’t see how they can be competitive in this game.  The Wolfpack went 14-6 at home, but they are just 7-7 on the road.  The biggest difference was the play of NC State’s defense as they simply could not get stops, especially when playing in unfamiliar arenas.  In neutral court games, the Wolfpack allow 73.8 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defensive play will continue in this game, especially against one of the best offenses in college basketball. 

Villanova is an excellent team that has steamrolled their opponents this season.  The Wildcats are 33-2 on the season, including an incredible 18-2 away from home.  Villanova has an exceptional offense that is averaging 76.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39.2% from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ offense has been just as good away from home this season as they are averaging 73.3 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  Villanova also has an elite defense that is holding opponents to 60.6 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  My power ratings make Villanova a solid 13.5-point favorite in this game, so there’s value in the pointspread.  We’ll lay the points with Villanova in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play VILLANOVA (-).

Georgia State and Xavier are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, making this game likely to come right down to the final few possessions.  Georgia State is my highest rated 14-seed in the tournament by a wide margin while Xavier is my second lowest rated 6-seed.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread suggests, and there’s a lot of value on the underdog.  Georgia State has high quality players that not many recognize.  Kevin Ware transferred from Louisville, Ryan Harrow transferred from Kentucky, and R.J. Hunter is the coach’s son; he’s slated to be a first round pick in the upcoming NBA draft.  Harrow did not play against Baylor due to a nagging hamstring injury, and he’ll likely be out again.  But Georgia State plays complete team basketball while relying on a slow pace and an excellent defense.  The Panthers are holding their opponents to just 62.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.          

Xavier got the perfect setup in their first game on Thursday as they were catching Mississippi off a play-in game on Tuesday night.  The Rebels also made a huge comeback in that game, so they were simply playing on tired legs and Xavier took full advantage.  Xavier has no such edge in this game, so we expect this game to be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  Xavier is only 8-6 over their last fourteen games with four of those wins coming by 6 points or less.  The Musketeers have played in 19 games away from home this season, and they either lost or won fourteen of those games by single digits.  Xavier went just 5-7 in true road games this season, and overall, the Musketeers are just 9-10 on the road.  Xavier only has a +1.0 point differential away from home, and they are just 5-14 ATS away from home based on the posted spread.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Georgia State in this early game on Saturday night.  

9* Play GEORGIA STATE (+).

Arizona is obviously one of the best teams in the country.  The Wildcats come into tonight’s game against Ohio State with a sterling 32-3 record on the season, but this is an extremely difficult matchup for a #2 seed.  Arizona cruised to an easy 93-72 win over Texas Southern on Thursday afternoon.  The Wildcats played a perfect game as they shot 60.4% (32-53) from the field and 45.5% (5-11) from three-point land.  They also hit 88.9% (24-27) from the free throw line.  They didn’t need that big of a performance to beat a poor Texas Southern team, and off such a perfect game, we expect regression, especially since they are taking a major step-up against a very good Ohio State defense.

Ohio State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Buckeyes are significantly better than a #10 seed.  My power ratings say Ohio State is more like a #3 or #4 seed as they rate higher than seven of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings only make Ohio State a 6.5-point underdog in this game, so there is tremendous value on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State dominated VCU on Thursday despite needing overtime to squeak out a 3-point win.  VCU simply hit clutch shots at the right time or else that game would have been a blowout.  Ohio State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Buckeyes’ offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Ohio State is a good team that matches-up well with Arizona, so we’ll take the generous points with the Buckeyes in this early game on Saturday night.   

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with a solid 25-9 record, and the Ducks are also 13-3 over their last thirteen games.  They are facing an Oklahoma State team that is just 1-6 over their last seven games, and just 18-13 overall this season.  With Oregon laying just a bucket, they will be an extremely attractive play for the novice bettors, but we see this as a terrific spot to go against the Ducks.  Oregon is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Ducks are not going to get their preferred pace in this game.  Oregon has been held to 70 points or less in eight games away from home this season.  The Ducks are just 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Oregon’s three wins have come by 1 point in overtime with the other two wins both coming by 3 points apiece.  Oregon’s defense has been atrocious away from home this season.  The Ducks are giving up 77.6 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is also playing their seventh consecutive road game tonight, so this is a tremendous spot to go against them, especially since they are laying points. 

Oklahoma State comes into this game in bad current form, and it’s questionable how the Cowboys even made the tournament.  But they couldn’t have asked for a better match-up, and based on my power ratings, Oklahoma State should be a 1-point favorite in this game.  The Big 12 teams were terrible yesterday, so that will give bettors another reason to go against the Cowboys in this game.  But Oklahoma State plays at a slow pace, and they have a good defense.  Those two reasons make them live in this game.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific in neutral court games this season as they are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field.  Oklahoma State’s huge defensive edge will be the difference in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Cowboys in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-6 record this season, and their #4 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home this season, and their inability to get consistent stops will ultimately be their downfall in this tournament.  The Terrapins give up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Their three-point defense is extremely weak, and that doesn’t bode for this game as Valparaiso has shot the three at a 40.2% clip away from home this season.  Maryland’s offense has also struggled mightily away from home this season.  The Terrapins are only averaging 64.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land.   

Valparaiso is a scrappy team that comes into this game with a sold 28-5 record.  The Crusaders have two losses by a combined 4 points, and another loss in overtime.  They’ve only been embarrassed twice, but both of those games were very early in the season.  Valparaiso is 15-2 over their last 17 games, so they simply know how to win games.  The Crusaders have a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 59.7 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Valparaiso also owns an efficient offense that averages 68.4 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  These two teams are much closer than the seeds indicate, and we expect this game to come right down to the wire.  We’ll take the points with the Crusaders in this late game on Friday afternoon.      

9* Play VALPARAISO (+).

Indiana is not a tournament quality team.  The Hoosiers are just 20-13 on the season, but since they have the name and play in the Big 10, they are granted into the tournament without having the credentials.  Indiana had the second worst defense in the Big 10 as they allowed an ugly 1.11 points per possession in conference play.  Indiana has the third worst defense in the entire NCAA tournament, allowing 1.04 points per possession.  Only Lafayette and Eastern Washington are worse and those two teams allowed a combined 174 points while losing by a combined 51 points yesterday.  Overall, Indiana’s defense allows 73.3 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Indiana is also a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hoosiers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home when held to less than 70 points this season.  Those five losses have come by an average of 10.2 points per game.  Indiana’s offense will be stymied by the stout Wichita State defense in this game.

Wichita State comes into today’s game with a 28-4 record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a 2-seed as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, and greater than Kansas who is a #2 seed.  Wichita State knows they got the shaft, and with an opportunity to pound a big name team from a big name conference, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  The Shockers were upset in their conference tournament, so they come in off a loss, and that will ensure no complacency.  Wichita State has held 30 of their 32 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 55.8 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State also has an efficient offense that averages 68.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers in this game on Friday afternoon.          

9* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Wyoming is only playing in the NCAA tournament because they upset the Mountain West conference tournament when they beat San Diego State as 6-point underdogs.  If they lost that game, Wyoming would have been in the NIT.  The Cowboys were out-scored by 0.01 points per possession in conference play this season, and teams with negative differentials tend to get blown out in the Big Dance.  Wyoming has a good looking 25-9 record, and they play a style of basketball that is successful in tournaments.  The Cowboys play at an extremely slow pace, and they are a solid defensive team.  However, their opponent plays exactly the same way, only Northern Iowa does it exceptionally better.  Wyoming went just 5-7 in true road games, and just 8-7 overall in games played away from home.  Their offense has been horrendous in away games as they only average 54.6 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 27.3% shooting from three-point land.  Wyoming’s offense will struggle mightily against the stout Northern Iowa defense in this game.                

Northern Iowa is a very good team that got shafted with a #5 seed.  The Panthers come into today’s game with a 30-3 record, and based on my power ratings, they should have been a #3 seed.  Northern Iowa is a hungry and humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Wyoming in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 54.3 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Panthers also own a highly efficient offense that shoots 48.3% from the field and 39.8% from three-point land.  Northern Iowa is significantly better than Wyoming despite the teams playing the same style, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Friday afternoon.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Razorbacks play an up-tempo style for 40 full minutes while trying to wear out their opponents in the process.  Their style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Arkansas’ offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Razorbacks will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Wofford plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Arkansas has been held to less than 70 points eleven times this season.  The Razorbacks are just 6-5 SU in those games and 3-8 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Arkansas has been held to less than 70 points in eight road games.  They are just 3-5 SU and an ugly 1-7 ATS in those games.  The Razorbacks will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.       

Wofford is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Arkansas’ frenetic style.  The Terriers are 19-2 over their last twenty-one games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Wofford is 28-6 on the season, including 15-5 in games away from home.  The Terriers play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Wofford only averages 65.9 points per game, but they shoot 45.5% from the field and 37.1% from three-point land.  Wofford’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 59.6 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 27% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas’ defense is allowing 73.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Arkansas can’t play in a slow-paced game, so we’ll take the points with Wofford in this game on Thursday night.                     

9* Play WOFFORD (+).

NC State is a pretty good team, but LSU is slightly better.  Both teams are rated equally, so this game should be a pick.  NC State played much better basketball on their home court this season, and they were extremely vulnerable when playing on the road.  The Wolfpack went 14-6 at home, but they were just 6-7 on the road.  The biggest difference was the play of NC State’s defense as they simply could not get stops, especially when playing in unfamiliar arenas.  In neutral court games, the Wolfpack allow 76.7 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 42.2% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defensive play will continue in this game, especially since NC State is in poor current form.  They’ve allowed 70 points or more in three of their last five games while allowing their opponents to shoot 52% (78-150) from the field in those games.   

LSU is a good team that has a lot of talent.  The Tigers are 22-10 on the season, including a respectable 9-6 away from home.  LSU has a terrific offense that is averaging 73.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field.  The Tiger’s offense has actually been better away from home this season as they are averaging 74.5 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also playing solid defense as they are holding opponents to 67.7 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which NC State has struggled this season.  The Tigers’ ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will be critical to the outcome of this game.  We’ll take the points with LSU in this game on Thursday night.      

9* Play LSU (+).

Virginia Commonwealth was a much better team early on this season.  VCU lost starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending knee injury on January 31st, and that’s when the Rams started to struggle.  VCU closed the season on a 5-6 SU slide after losing Weber.  He was a key clog on both ends of the court for VCU, and he was on pace to break the NCAA’s all-time steals record.  VCU’s pressing style is hampered without Weber on the court, but all seems fixed after VCU won 4 games in four nights to win the A-10 conference tournament.  That accomplishment was good, but that run took something out of the team.  Now they must wheel back and face a very good Ohio State team while playing their fifth game in eight days.  VCU’s offense had declined sharply without Weber, and prior to the conference tournament, the Rams were only shooting 40.8% from the field and just 31.1% from three-point land.

Ohio State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Buckeyes are significantly better than a #10 seed.  My power ratings say Ohio State is more like a #3 or #4 seed as they rate higher than seven of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings make Ohio State a 6.5-point favorite in this game, so there is tremendous value on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State is an excellent team that is well-suited to handle VCU’s ‘Havoc’ style of basketball as they have excellent ball handlers and shooters.  Ohio State’s offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Buckeyes also own a strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Ohio State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes in this game on Thursday afternoon.   

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

UCLA making the NCAA tournament was a shocker.  The Bruins have no business being in the field, and they have a power rating that fits a #15 or #16 seed, not an #11 seed.  UCLA is playing in this tournament on name recognition only, and we expect the Bruins to get exposed in this game against SMU for the fraud that they are.  The Bruins are a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  UCLA has been held to 70 points or less in 14 games this season.  The Bruins are just 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in those games.  Thirteen of those fourteen games have come away from home, so there’s a strong possibility that UCLA’s offense will be stymied in this game.  UCLA’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Bruins are giving up 65.9 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.

SMU struggled early on this season, but the Mustangs were playing without a few key players.  But when the team got complete, the Mustangs played exceptional basketball.  SMU is 25-3 over their last 28 games after opening the season at just 2-3.  The Mustangs are extremely well coached by Larry Brown, and they have tournament experience after making it to Madison Square Garden in the NIT last season.  SMU has held 29 of their 33 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Mustangs are only allowing 59.7 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  SMU also has a potent offense that averages 69.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field.  SMU is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday afternoon.          

9* Play SMU (-).

Georgia State and Baylor are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical 24-9 records, and they both play slow, half-court basketball.  The Panthers and Bears also have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, making this game likely to come right down to the final few possessions.  Georgia State is my highest rated 14-seed in the tournament by a wide margin while Baylor is my second lowest rated 3-seed.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread suggests, and there’s a lot of value on the underdog.  Georgia State has three high quality players that not many will recognize.  Kevin Ware transferred from Louisville, Ryan Harrow transferred from Kentucky, and R.J. Hunter is the coach’s son.  Those three players combine to average 46.9 points per game, and all three could be starting on any major team in the country.  Georgia State also plays solid defense as they hold their opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.          

Baylor played a much different style of basketball this season.  The Bears were more of an up-tempo offense in years past, but the Bears have slowed way down.  Baylor would rather win a low-scoring, defensive grinder versus trying to out-score their opponent while playing zero defense.  Baylor has played in ten straight games that were decided by 10 points or less, and today’s game will be close as well.  Baylor went just 6-5 in true road games this season, and overall, the Bears went just 8-7 on the road.  The Bears only have a +1.0 point differential away from home, and they are just 4-11 ATS away from home based on the posted spread with one of those wins coming by 9 points.  Baylor only hits 66.7% from the free throw line, and that weakness prevents them from extending margins late.  Georgia State hits 73.4% from the free throw line, so that strength keeps them in games.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Georgia State in this game on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA STATE (+).

Dayton is a pretty good team, and they come into tonight’s game with a 25-8 record.  But the Flyers are not in the best of situational and scheduling spots despite getting the rare opportunity to play a NCAA tournament game on their home court.  Dayton played in the A-10 championship game on Sunday afternoon, and they lost 71-65 to VCU.  That was three games in three days for Dayton, and now they will be playing their fourth game in six days.  Dayton is also a depth-shy team as they only play a true 6-man rotation; four starters played 94 minutes or more in their last three games.  The Flyers will be playing on tired legs, and that doesn’t bode well against a good Boise State defense.  Dayton is also shocked that they were one of the last teams to make the tournament as they were confident that they were getting a #6 or #7 seed.  “We’re all surprised we’re one of the last four in,” Kendall Pollard said.  Head coach Archie Miller simply added: “It will sting.”

Boise State has an identical 25-8 record, and my raw power ratings make the Broncos a 1-point favorite in this game.  After adjusting for strength of schedule, my power ratings make Dayton a 1-point favorite.  So there’s a lot of value on Boise State in this game.  The Broncos have played terrific basketball down the stretch as they are 15-2 over their last seventeen games.  Boise State owns a strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 60.9 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Broncos are also a confident team: “I think we’re a dangerous team on any night with our shooting capabilities,” Rob Heyer said.  “If we continue to put together defensive stops, I think we’re a problem for a lot of teams.”  We’ll take the points with Boise State in this game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play BOISE STATE (+).

Iona was once again the best team in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference this season; the Gaels are 26-8 SU overall and they went 19-3 in conference play.  But just like last season, Iona lost to Manhattan in the championship game and were denied a bid to the NCAA tournament.  The Gaels overcame that setback last year and played well in an 89-88 loss at Louisiana Tech in the NIT.  But tonight’s game in Rhode Island presents a much different challenge, both on and off the court.  Iona was favored by 3.5-points in the title game this season; they were 2-point underdogs last season.  A NCAA tournament bid was a foregone conclusion, especially since they beat Manhattan twice earlier this season.  But they lost, and the team is deflated.  Iona is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best, but they’ve been off for a week, and they won’t have their rhythm in this game.  That will be even more pronounced since Rhode Island plays at an extremely slow pace which will take Iona out of their comfort zone.  The Gaels are heavily reliant on making three’s as 31% of their points come from beyond the arc.  But Rhode Island doesn’t give up three’s as just 19% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  Iona might also be without their best outside shooter as guard Isaiah Williams is questionable due to an illness.  Williams averages 14.2 ppg this season and a fantastic 46% shooting from 3-point range.

Rhode Island played well in the A-10 tournament, but they came up short in a 56-52 loss to Dayton.  The Rams are a good team that is looking at the NIT as an opportunity to continue their season.  Rhode Island comes into tonight’s game with a 22-9 SU record, including a strong 13-2 at home.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 28 of their 31 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous, especially at home where they are holding their opponents to just 58 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field and 27.7% shooting from three-point land.  Rhode Island has a strong 2-point offense, and they will score at ease on an Iona defense that allows 74.1 points per game on the road.  The Rams are the better team with the much better defense, so we’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this NIT game on Tuesday night.

10* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Wisconsin has won their two tournament games with ease; they beat Michigan 71-60 and they beat Purdue 71-51.  But those two opponents were overmatched by the Badgers.  That won’t be the case this afternoon as Wisconsin is taking a major step-up in class against Michigan State.  The Badgers only beat the Spartans by 7 points (68-61) on their home court two weeks ago, so there is no reason to expect Wisconsin to now win by more on a neutral court today.  Wisconsin is not a deep team as they only play a six-man rotation.  Over their last two games, all five starters have played 64 minutes or more.  With this being their third game in as many days, and the upcoming NCAA tournament only four days away, there’s little reason for Wisconsin to lay everything out on the floor in this game.  The Badgers will be quite happy to win this game in a low-scoring defensive grinder.  Wisconsin is playing on tired legs, and we expect their offense to struggle a bit against a stout Michigan State defense.

Michigan State is on a 4-game winning streak, and they come into today’s game off a pair of nice tournament wins.  We’ve backed Michigan State in both of those games, and we’ll come right back with the Spartans in today’s game for all the same reasons.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The Spartans are also a much deeper team, and only two of their starters have played more than 60 minutes over their last two games.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 62.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is greatly undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Spartans on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Dayton is a pretty good team, and they come into today’s game with a 24-7 record.  The Flyers also beat Rhode Island easily earlier this season, so the line looks a bit short considering the past results.  But this will be an extremely difficult game for Dayton, and there’s good value in playing against them in this spot.  Dayton was fortunate to survive their game last night; they only beat St. Bonaventure 75-71.  The Flyers allowed St. Bonaventure to shoot 58.1% (25-43) from the field and 53.3% (8-15) from three-point land.  Dayton also shot 51.9% (27-52) from the field, but they will get a much stiffer challenge today against Rhode Island, a team that has one of the best defenses in the conference.  Dayton is also a depth-shy team as they only play a true 6-man rotation; four starters played 36 minutes or more last night.  The Flyers will be playing on tired legs, and that doesn’t bode well against a stout defensive team.   

Rhode Island easily won a Best Bet for us in their 71-58 win over George Washington last night.  We’ll come right back with the Rams for all the same reasons.  Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into today’s game with a 22-8 record.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 27 of their 30 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous as they are holding their opponents to just 59.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Rams are quite focused on this tournament: “We’ve got a lot of confidence,” Hassan Martin said.  “We think we can win it.”  We’ll take the points with Rhode Island in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-5 record this season.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland squeaked out a close 75-69 win over Indiana last night, and a repeat of that performance will get them blown out in this game.  The Terrapins are not a deep team, and four of their starters played 32 minutes or more in last night’s fast-paced game.  Maryland will be playing on tired legs, and that does not bode well for their defense in this game.  Overall, Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home as they are giving up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland’s offense is also taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, going from the awful Indiana defense to the stout Michigan State defense.  Maryland will simply have a difficult time scoring points consistently in this game.

Michigan State is on a 3-game winning streak, and they come into today’s game off an easy Best Bet win for us over Ohio State last night.  We’ll come right back with Michigan State for all the same reasons.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.1 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Spartans in this game on Saturday afternoon.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Ohio State and Michigan State will play for the second time this season; the Spartans won 59-56 at home last month.  Ohio State trailed by 9 points at the half, and Michigan State held them without a field goal for a 6.5-minute stretch at one point.  The Buckeyes beat Minnesota 79-73 last night, but that game was too close considering how the Gophers packed in their season down the stretch.  Ohio State shot 50% (26-52) from the field and they out-scored Minnesota 22-10 at the free throw line.  That’s not going to happen tonight against the stout Spartans’ defense, especially knowing that Ohio State shot just 44.2% (23-52) in the first meeting while scoring just 5 total points from the line.  The Buckeyes are not a deep team at all, and four of their starters played 33 minutes or more last night.  That means they will be playing on tired legs against a very good defense; Ohio State will simply have a difficult time scoring points consistently in this game.            

Michigan State comes into this game off back-to-back wins after losing back-to-back games, so they have their confidence back.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 62.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Spartans were also strong away from home as they went 7-4 in true road games; Ohio State was just 4-6 in true road games.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Spartans in this game on Friday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

George Washington easily won a Best Bet for us last night in their 73-55 blowout of Duquesne.  That game was a perfect setup for the Colonials, and they simply beat a bad opponent.  George Washington shot 50% (10-20) from three-point land in that game, but they also allowed Duquesne to shoot 50% (10-20) from three-point land.  The Colonials will get a much stiffer challenge tonight against Rhode Island, a team that beat them 59-55 earlier this season.  George Washington’s offense was stymied in that game as they only shot 42.9% (21-49) from the field and 36.4% (4-11) from three-point land.  The Colonials’ offense has scored 160 points in their last two games, but they’ll be lucky to crack the 60-point mark tonight against a very good Rhode Island defense.     

Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 21-8 record.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 26 of their 29 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous as they are holding their opponents to just 59.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Rams are quite focused on this tournament: “We’ve got a lot of confidence,” Hassan Martin said.  “We think we can win it.”  We’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this game on Friday night.  

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Villanova is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game against Providence with an impressive 30-2 record.  The Wildcats already own two wins over Providence this season, so tonight’s game appears to be another easy win for the Wildcats.  But we see this game just the opposite as we expect Providence to give Villanova all they can handle tonight.  Villanova crushed Marquette 84-49 yesterday afternoon.  The Wildcats played an abnormally perfect offensive game as they shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 58.6% (17-29) from three-point land; the 17 made three’s tied a Big East tournament record.  Villanova scored 105 points in their previous game which was a 37-point win over St. John’s.  The Wildcats have shot 54.5% (67-123) from the field, 45.9% (28-61) from three-point land, and 75% (27-36) from the free throw line in their last two games while winning by a combined 72 points.  Those numbers are simply unsustainable, and we expect major regression from Villanova’s offense in tonight’s game.       

Providence is also having a good season, and they come into tonight’s game with a 22-10 record.  The Friars easily beat St. John’s 74-57 yesterday afternoon, so they did not exert much energy in that game.  Providence is a veteran team with three players averaging double digits in scoring, and they only lost to Villanova by 6 points earlier this season despite getting out-shot 50%-43.1% from the field and being -11 (27-16) in scoring from the free throw line.  Providence can certainly play with Villanova, especially since we expect the Wildcats to regress sharply in this game.  The Friars are full of confidence as well: “As a team we’ve played great,” said Kris Dunn.  “We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.”  Villanova is certainly a very good team, but we do not expect their best in this game, so we’ll take the points with Providence on Friday night.

9* Play PROVIDENCE (+).

George Washington is a very good team that returned four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials come into tonight’s game with a 20-11 record, but most of their losses came while playing with injuries to their better players.  George Washington is in tremendous current form right now as they are 3-1 over their last four games with their lone loss coming at a very good Davidson team.  George Washington’s last three wins have come by 22, 16, and 23 points which shows how dominating they’ve been.  The Colonials have an exceptional defense that is holding their opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.  In an earlier season win over Duquesne, the Colonials held the Dukes to just 59 points, including just 18 points in the first half.  George Washington’s defense will shutdown Duquesne’s offense once again in tonight’s game.      

Duquesne played last night and they outlasted Saint Louis in a 61-55 win.  The Dukes rallied in the second half, but that took a lot out of the team.  Duquesne has no depth as they only play a true 6-man rotation.  Four of their starters played 32 minutes or more last night with two starters playing all 40 minutes.  Three players combined to score 49 of their 61 total points while combining to shoot 47.4% (18-38) from the field.  The Dukes’ offense will now face the best defensive team in the A-10 conference, and they’ll have little success on offense, especially since they will be playing on tired legs on a back-to-back set.  George Washington is rested and ready, and since they are simply the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Colonials in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, so neither team has the home court advantage.  Creighton and Georgetown played twice this season with the Hoyas winning both games quite easily.  However, those games came early in conference play when Georgetown was playing their best basketball while Creighton was playing their worst.  “We really didn’t give them our best games,” Creighton’s Will Artino said.  “We played them both times pretty early in Big East play. As a team, we’ve come a long way since then.”  Georgetown is only 6-4 SU and just 4-6 ATS over their last ten games.  The Hoyas’ last three wins have all come by 6 points or less, and they are on a 0-3 ATS slide as a favorite.  Georgetown lost two key role players back in February, and since then, the team’s depth and ability to stretch leads has gone away.  The Hoyas are more likely to win a close game than blow an opponent out right now, so there’s a lot of value in taking points against Georgetown, especially in tonight’s game.  

Creighton is playing their best basketball of the season, and they came thru for us with an easy Best Bet win over DePaul last night.  We’ll come right back with the Bluejays for all the same reasons.  Creighton’s overall record of 14-18 looks extremely poor, but note that seven of Creighton’s fourteen Big East losses have come in games in which they held the lead at some point in the final minute.  The Bluejays’ last four losses have come by 4 points or less, so they’ve been very competitive in defeat.  Creighton head coach Greg McDermott isn’t convinced that Georgetown is much better than his team: “If there’s one team we want to play again, it would be them just because we played so poorly the two times we played them. As I told my team, I really feel like Georgetown has only seen 20 minutes of what we’re capable of. Other than that, they haven’t seen Creighton basketball the way we’ve been playing of late.”  Creighton is undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Bluejays in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play CREIGHTON (+).

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, so neither team has the home court advantage.  Creighton and DePaul played twice this season with each team winning on the opponent’s court.  Both teams come into tonight’s game on losing streaks; Creighton has lost 3 straight games while DePaul has lost 7 straight games.  However, there is no doubt that Creighton has been playing the much better basketball.  DePaul has been routinely blown out as eight of their last ten losses have come by 10 points or more.  The Blue Demons’ last loss was extremely poor as they let a Marquette team that had quit on the season to beat them by 10 points while DePaul only scored 48 total points.  They shot just 32.8% (21-64) from the field and 16.7% (3-18) from three-point land.  DePaul only got to the free throw line 6 times in the entire game, and that shows a lack of effort and aggressiveness.  Things are unlikely to change tonight, especially since DePaul’s season is on the verge of finally coming to an end.

Creighton is playing their best basketball of the season despite their recent 3-game losing streak.  The Bluejays played Xavier, Villanova and Seton Hall tough with those three losses coming by a combined 6 points.  Creighton’s overall record of 13-18 SU looks extremely poor, but note that seven of Creighton’s fourteen Big East losses have come in games in which they held the lead at some point in the final minute.  The Bluejays could easily have a record of 20-11 SU instead, so they are a much better team than they overall W/L record indicates.  Creighton dominated DePaul in their last meeting, resulting in a 75-62 road win.  Bluejays’ head coach Greg McDermott hints that his team matches-up well with DePaul:  “We got to their shooters, we had an impact on the offensive glass, we controlled the defensive glass, and we didn’t turn it over.  Those things are going to spell good things for us.”  Creighton is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bluejays in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play CREIGHTON (-).

Iowa State comes into tonight’s game with a solid 21-8 record, but the Cyclones are just 4-5 in true road games.  Iowa State is also coming off a huge comeback win in their final home game of the season; they trailed by 21 points to Oklahoma in the second half.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Iowa State, and they are going to face a style of play that frustrates them.  The Cyclones are a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  Iowa State has been held to 70 points or less in four games this season.  The Cyclones are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.  Iowa State’s lone win came by just two points (63-61) on their home court.  When held to less than 70 points on the road, Iowa State is 0-3 SU this season.  Iowa State’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Cyclones are giving up 77.1 points per game on 43.4% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is also playing their fourth road game over their last six games, so this is a prime spot to play against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.      

TCU struggled for the first half of the season, but the Horned Frogs are now playing their best basketball of the season.  TCU is a much different team at home (13-5) than on the road (2-8), and we expect a strong performance in their final home game of the season.  They return home tonight off back-to-back road losses, and with three seniors that are three of the top four scorers on the team, the Horned Frogs will play this game with a purpose.  TCU has held 16 of their 18 home opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Horned Frogs are only allowing 57.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  TCU has won three straight home games, so they will be playing with a lot of confidence in this game.  This is TCU’s biggest game of the season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday night.          

10* Play TCU (+).

Virginia is having an excellent season as they come into tonight’s game at Louisville with an impressive 28-1 record.  The Cavaliers have been winning lately without their best player, Justin Anderson, who has missed the past seven games with a broken finger.  He was slated to return for this game, but Anderson had an appendectomy on Thursday and he will not play.  Anderson initially got hurt in the first Louisville game; Virginia only won 52-47 on their home court.  Since that win, Virginia has played a slew of weak teams while squeaking out wins.  The Cavaliers must now take to the road for the second consecutive game, and face a motivated and talented Louisville team on their strong home court.  This is by far Virginia’s toughest game since Anderson has been out, and we do not expect the Cavaliers to escape this game with a win.  Over their last five game, Virginia’s offense is only averaging 62 points per game.  The team is used to playing in defensive grinders, but the Cardinals are also comfortable playing in a slugfest.  That eliminates Virginia’s biggest edge of controlling the pace and playing half-court basketball, and we saw how the Cavaliers couldn’t get separation from Louisville in the first meeting on their home court.   

Louisville comes into their final home game of the season off an ugly 71-59 loss at Notre Dame.  The Cardinals are in a terrific spot to bounce back with a big win, especially since this is just their third home game since February 21st.  Overall, Louisville is a strong 14-4 at home where their defense is holding opponents to just 55.3 points per game on 36.5% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land.  A win in this game gives Louisville a double bye for the upcoming conference tournament.  “From a seeding standpoint, it’s very big. It’s a very, very important basketball game,” said head coach Rick Pitino.  Under Pitino, Louisville has won their last 21 home games against opponents that they already played on the road earlier in the season, and that shows revenge motivation is a big factor for his teams.  Louisville will put everything they have into this game, and since they are catching Virginia at a vulnerable time, we’ll take the points with the Cardinals in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Kansas and Oklahoma played back on January 19th with the Jayhawks winning 85-78 on their home court.  Kansas was playing much better basketball back then, and they were only able to beat the Sooners by 8 points on their strong home court.  The Jayhawks come into the rematch in terrible current form; they are just 3-2 over their last five games with one of those wins coming in overtime.  Kansas is just 1-3 SU in their last four road games, and now they must play without their leading scorer, Perry Elllis, who injured his knee in their last game.  Ellis averages 14.2 points per game, and he’s Kansas’ best rim protector.  While Ellis is not a household name, he is one of the most important players on the Jayhawks’ roster.  Kansas’ offense has been mediocre on the road this season as the Jayhawks are only averaging 66.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Kansas is also 0-5 ATS over their last five games as they are simply not playing up to expectations right now.

Oklahoma returns home off a bad loss at Iowa State.  The Sooners led that game 37-18 at the half before getting out-scored 59-33 over the final 20 minutes of the game.  Oklahoma will be ready for today’s game as they are playing their last home game of the season with revenge and off a loss.  The Sooners are a strong 13-1 at home where they play excellent defense.  Oklahoma is only allowing their home opponents to score 58.9 points per game on 36.6% shooting from the field and 29.3% shooting from three-point land.  The Sooners own a +18.5 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 77.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma is in a terrific spot for a big bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Sooners in this game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Virginia Commonwealth and Davidson played back on January 7th with the Rams winning 71-65 on their home court.  VCU was playing much better basketball back then, yet they were only able to beat the Wildcats by 6 points on VCU's strong home court as a 10.5 point favorite.  The Rams now come into this rematch in terrible current form; they’ve lost two straight games and they are only 4-5 SU over their last nine games.  VCU lost starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending knee injury on January 31st, and that’s when the Rams started to struggle.  Weber was a key clog on both ends of the court for VCU, and he was on pace to break the NCAA’s all-time steals record.  VCU’s pressing style has been hampered without Weber on the court, and nothing in their recent games suggests that the Rams will get back to their early season form.  VCU’s offense has declined without Weber, and over their last five games, the Rams are only shooting 40.8% from the field and just 31.1% from three-point land.  The loss of their point guard has really altered the direction of this Virginia Commonwealth team.

Davidson is definitely a tournament-caliber squad, but the Wildcats need a big win to get them into the Big Dance.  Tonight’s game against VCU presents them with a terrific opportunity to get a resume-building win.  Davidson is an excellent team that comes into tonight’s game with a 21-6 SU record, including a strong 13-1 SU record at home.  The Wildcats were facing VCU’s press for the first time earlier this season, and despite losing, they were not embarrassed in defeat.  Now that they have the experience of facing the pressure, they will be more prepared this time around, and fortunately for Davidson, they are catching VCU at exactly the right time.  Davidson is well-suited to handle VCU’s ‘Havoc’ style of basketball as they have excellent ball handlers and shooters.  The Wildcats lead the A-10 conference in assist-turnover ratio (1.7) while averaging a league-low 9.6 turnovers per game.  Davidson owns a +19.8 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 82 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land.  Davidson has been the most profitable pointspread team in the country with an incredible 20-4 ATS mark this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play DAVIDSON (-).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with a solid 22-8 record, and the Ducks are also 8-1 over their last nine games.  Oregon is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Ducks are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against their in-state rival.  Oregon has been held to 70 points or less in five road games this season.  The Ducks are just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Oregon’s lone win came by just a single point (68-67) in overtime.  Oregon’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Ducks are giving up 79.5 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is also playing their third consecutive road game tonight, and since they’ve won their last three games SU as underdogs, this is a prime spot to play against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.      

Oregon State played exceptionally well early on this season, but the Beavers have struggled down the stretch.  But they return home tonight off back-to-back road losses, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Oregon State is 15-1 at home where they play sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents.  They’ve held all 16 of their home opponents to less than 70 points as they play at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Oregon State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 51.9 points per game on 34.5% shooting from the field and 26.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oregon State’s biggest game of the season, so we’ll back the Beavers in this game on Wednesday night.          

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

TCU and Oklahoma State played earlier this season with the Horned Frogs winning 70-55 at home as 2.5-point underdogs.  TCU was catching Oklahoma State in a terrible spot for that game as the Cowboys were off three consecutive SU underdog wins.  The rematch will be a much more difficult challenge for TCU as they are now facing an Oklahoma State team looking to break a losing streak.  The Horned Frogs are just 2-7 SU in true road games this season, including 1-7 in conference play.  TCU’s average road loss in conference play has come by 11.7 points per game.  The Horned Frogs’ defense has been much worse on the road where they are giving up 68.2 points per game; overall they give up 60.6 points per game.  TCU’s offense has also struggled to score points on the road as they are only averaging 62.7 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field.     

Oklahoma State comes into their final home game of the season on a 4-game losing streak that began with the loss at TCU.  The Cowboys are in a good spot to bounce back with a big win, especially since they’ve lost their last two home games.  Overall, Oklahoma State is a strong 11-4 at home this season with ten of their wins coming by 11 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field.  The Cowboys also have an offense that is averaging 69 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  Oklahoma State has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Cowboys in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Purdue comes into tonight’s game with a respectable 19-10 record, and they are 9-2 over their last eleven games.  One of those losses came in their last game at Ohio State, and that was a tough loss to swallow.  The Boilermakers blew a 12-point lead in the second half, and they lost 65-61.  That type of loss is one that will linger, and Purdue will play with a hangover tonight.  The Boilermakers were gifted an easy schedule as of late, and the weak opponents have boosted their record to look better than the team actually is.  Over their last nine wins, Purdue beat Rutgers and Indiana twice; both of those teams are garbage.  Purdue also beat Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Ohio State.  The Boilermakers’ offense is only averaging 64.7 points per game away from home this season.  Purdue will have a difficult time scoring tonight against a very good Spartans’ defense.            

Michigan State comes into this game off back-to-back losses.  The Spartans return home to play their last home game of the season, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a supreme effort tonight.  Michigan State is one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  The Spartans have the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 61.5 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Michigan State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Wednesday night.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

West Virginia and Kansas played on February 16th with the Mountaineers winning 62-61 on their home court.  We expect a much different outcome in this rematch, especially since West Virginia is likely to be without their two starting guards, Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (leg).  Those two guys combined to score 26 points against Kansas in the first meeting, and since their replacements are inexperienced freshman, the Mountaineers will struggle mightily in this game.  Head coach Bob Huggins is also quite concerned:  “I think it hurts our depth.  That’s the biggest thing.  Our pressure isn’t nearly as good.”  The Mountaineers’ offense has struggled to score points all season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 65.3 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas is a perfect 14-0 SU at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat West Virginia big in this game.  Kansas is playing for the outright Big 12 regular season title, and they are playing with revenge in their last home game of the season.  Overall, eleven of the Jayhawks’ fourteen home wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by +14.1 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64.1 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 78.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Kentucky is obviously having a fantastic season; the Wildcats are a perfect 29-0 SU.  However, Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been as good on the road this season, so they can be had every time they play away from home.  Overall, the Wildcats average 75 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field.  On the road, Kentucky averages just 67.1 points per game on 43.4% shooting from the field.  That’s 7.9 points per game less and 3.7% shooting less per game, so the Wildcats appear to be a bit vulnerable away from home.  Kentucky also gets a poor match-up against Georgia in this game as the Bulldogs have a terrific 2-point defense.  Kentucky struggled against other strong 2-point defensive teams; they won 70-64 in overtime at Texas A&M, they only beat Vanderbilt 65-57 on their home court, and they escaped LSU 71-69.                 

Georgia is having a good season as the Bulldogs come into tonight’s game with a 19-9 record, including a strong 12-3 at home.  Georgia’s three home losses have come by a combined 11 points.  Georgia only lost by 11 points (69-58) at Kentucky earlier this season, so they are quite capable of hanging with the Wildcats on their home court.  Georgia’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 70.1 points per game.  Georgia is also playing solid defense at home where they are holding opponents to just 61.2 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  Georgia is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which Kentucky has struggled this season.  The Bulldogs out-rebounded the Wildcats 34-22 in the first meeting.  Georgia’s ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will keep them in this game throughout.  We’ll take the big points with Georgia in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play GEORGIA (+).

Georgetown and Butler have already played twice this season with the two teams splitting those games.  Butler won 64-58 in an early season tournament in the Bahamas, and Georgetown won 61-59 on their home court back in mid-January.  This third meeting will now take place on Butler’s strong home court, and the Hoyas will likely struggle tonight.  Georgetown is just 4-4 SU in true road games this season.  All four of the Hoyas’ road wins came when they were favored; they are 0-3 SU and ATS in conference road games as an underdog.  Those three losses came by 16, 3, and 17 points.  Georgetown’s defense is giving up 68 points per game on the road, and their perimeter defense has been terrible away from home.  The Hoyas are allowing opponents to hit 41.8% from three-point land on the road this season.  Georgetown’s 3-point defense is not in good current form either as they are allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% from beyond the arc over their last five games.

Butler returns home off an easy 67-53 road win at DePaul on Saturday afternoon.  The Bulldogs will be playing their last home game of the season, and they are also playing with revenge after losing by just 2 points at Georgetown in their last meeting.  Butler has played three of their last four games on the road, so we expect an extremely focused effort in this game.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 SU at home where their defense has been terrific, giving up just 57.3 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.  Butler owns a +18.4 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 75.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play BUTLER (-).

Oklahoma and Iowa State come into tonight’s game with identical 20-8 SU records.  The two teams are also similar in that they both play excellent basketball at home while struggling on the road.  In the first meeting in Oklahoma, the Sooners beat the Cyclones 94-83.  With this rematch now at Iowa State, we expect the home team to atone for their loss in Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 5-5 in true road games this season with four of those losses coming in conference games.  Three of those four losses came by 7, 11, and 21 points.  Oklahoma has also struggled against bad teams in some of their road wins; they needed overtime to win at Texas Tech.  The Sooners’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 69.2 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That poor defense is not going to cut it on the road against one of the best home offenses in the Big 12 that also plays on one of the toughest home courts in all of college basketball.

Iowa State returns home off a 70-69 loss at Kansas State on Saturday afternoon.  The Cyclones blew a 7-point halftime lead, and an 11-point lead with just over ten minutes left to play in the game.  It was their second consecutive loss; they lost their first home game of the season to Baylor last Wednesday night.  Iowa State is off back-to-back losses and playing with revenge in their last home game of the season.  This is a fantastic spot for the Cyclones to back bounce with a big win, and we expect them to do exactly that.  Iowa State is 14-1 SU at home this season where they own a terrific +16.5 point differential.  The Cyclones’ offense is averaging 82.1 points per game on 51.3% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s defense has also been much better at home where they are holding opponents to just 65.6 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is in a tremendous bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Purdue and Ohio State played on February 2nd with the Boilermakers winning 60-58 as 1.5-point home underdogs.  We expect a much different game in the rematch.  Purdue comes into tonight’s game with a respectable 19-9 record, and they are 9-1 over their last ten games.  However, the Boilermakers were gifted an easy schedule as of late, and the weak opponents have boosted their record to look better than the team actually is.  Over their last nine wins, Purdue beat Rutgers and Indiana twice; both of those teams are garbage.  Purdue also beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa.  And of those three teams, only Iowa is a halfway decent team.  Their other win was the aforementioned 2-point win over Ohio State.  The Boilermakers only scored 60 points on their home court against Ohio State, so it’s highly unlikely they will have offensive success tonight on the road.  Purdue’s offense is only averaging 65.1 points per game away from home this season.  

Ohio State is having another good season as they come into this game with a 20-8 record.  The Buckeyes are 16-1 at home, and tonight will be just their third home game since January 29th.  All sixteen of Ohio State’s home wins this season have come by 12 points or more; the Buckeyes own an incredible +25.4 point differential at home.  Ohio State has a terrific defense that is only giving up 59 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Buckeyes’ offense averages 83.2 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field and 42.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  In the first meeting at Purdue, the Buckeyes only hit 26.7% (4-15) from three, and they only attempted 6 free throws in the entire game.  Purdue got a favorable home whistle as they attempted 27 free throws.  Ohio State was also without Marc Loving who was suspended for that game; he’s back on the court now.  This is a big revenge spot for Ohio State, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes in this game on Sunday night.   

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Arizona and Utah played last month with the Wildcats embarrassing the Utes 69-51.  However, we expect a much different result in the rematch, especially since Arizona is in a tough scheduling spot for this game.  Arizona just played in Colorado on the Thursday night; that game was played at elevation of 5,340 feet.  Tonight they will play in Salt Lake City which has an elevation of 4,226 feet.  Teams playing the Colorado to Utah road trip have been horrendous on the backend of the trip, and Arizona is not immune to this significant disadvantage.  The Wildcats are a very good team that is 25-3 on the season, but they are up against it in this game.  Arizona played a perfect game at Colorado as they shot 52.9% (27-51) from the field and 50% (5-10) from three-point land.  They also hit 92% (23-25) from the free throw line.  They didn’t need that big of a performance to beat a poor Colorado team, and off such a perfect game, we expect regression, especially against a very good Utah defense.         

Utah is a perfect 16-0 at home this season, and this is their most important game.  The Utes were swept by Arizona in three games last season, including a 67-63 overtime loss at home.  Utah has their best team in a decade, and if they are ever going to beat Arizona, this is the game.  Fifteen of Utah’s sixteen home wins this season have come by 15 points or more, so that shows just how dominate they’ve been.  Their lone close home win (69-68) came over a very good Wichita State team.  Utah has an incredible +25.4 point differential at home.  The Utes’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 55.7 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Utah offense is averaging 81.1 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 45.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the short price with Utah, especially since Arizona is playing on a tough back-to-back road set.       

9* Play UTAH (-).

Richmond is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at St. Joseph’s.  The Spiders come in off their biggest win of the season on Wednesday night; they beat VCU 67-63 in double overtime.  Richmond looked like a sure loser, but they got some fortunate bounces at the end to go their way and they escaped with a lucky win.  Richmond actually swept VCU this season for the first time in 15 years, so they are certain to play with a hangover in tonight’s game against St. Joseph’s.  The Spiders are just 2-9 in true road games this season, so they really have no business laying points away from home.  Richmond’s defense has been much worse on the road this season.  The Spiders are giving up 65.1 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land away from home.  They own a -2.7 point differential on the road, and their two road wins came unexpectedly as they were underdogs in both games.     

St. Joseph’s returns home off a confidence-building 82-71 road win at Massachusetts as 6-point underdogs.  A home underdog off a SU road underdog win is a profitable profile, and the Hawks fit the situation perfectly.  St. Joseph’s has played three of their last four games on the road, and since they lost their last home game in overtime, we expect an extremely focused effort in this game.  St. Joseph’s defense has been terrific at home where they are holding their opponents to just 59.9 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field.  The Hawks own a +4.3 point differential on their home court, so they hold a +7.0 point differential over Richmond based on the home and road splits.  St. Joseph’s holds a lot of value in this game, and since Richmond is off a huge win, we’ll take the points with the Hawks in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

Texas and Kansas played last month with the Jayhawks winning 75-62 on the Longhorns’ home court.  We expect a similar outcome in the rematch.  Texas is in terrible current form as they’ve lost three consecutive games, and they are just 3-7 over their last ten games.  The Longhorns’ offense has struggled to score points all season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 64 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Texas was limited by the Kansas defense in the first meeting; the Longhorns shot just 40% (24-60) from the field and 16.7% (3-18) from three-point land.  And that was on their home court, so things won’t be any better in this game on the road.  Texas has not fared too well on the road at Kansas as they’ve lost by 31 and 26 points over the last two years.  The Longhorns have been struggling all season, and this game will result in another poor performance.      

Kansas is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Texas big in this game.  Kansas is playing for the Big 12 regular season title, and after a poor performance at Kansas State on Monday night, they held a players only meeting.  Reports indicate the Jayhawks are a focused team, so we expect a peak effort in this game.  Kansas has been terrific when playing at home off a road loss this season.  The Jayhawks are a perfect 4-0 in this situation while winning by an average of 15 points per game.  Overall, twelve of the Jayhawks’ thirteen home wins this season have come by 8 points or more with their average win coming by 14.8 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64.2 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 79 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Minnesota was a scrappy team early in conference play, but their close losses piled up and those defeats have taken something out of the team.  Minnesota comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game losing streak with their two road losses coming by 10 and 19 points.  The Golden Gophers will play their fourth road game over their last five games, and they will be playing one of the best teams in the conference.  Minnesota’s defense has been terrible over their last five games as they’ve given up 68.4 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota’s offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season.  The Gophers are only averaging 62.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota will have a difficult time scoring tonight against a very good Spartans’ defense.            

Michigan State is still flying well under the radar, both in conference play and on a national level.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  The Spartans are 19-8 on the season, so they appear to be just an average team on the surface.  But they are much better than that record indicates.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 59 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Over their last five games, the Spartans have held their opponents to just 55.8 points per game.  Michigan State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Thursday night.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Evansville and Northern Iowa played on January 1st with the Purple Aces winning 52-49 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  That didn’t seem like a big upset back then, but with Northern Iowa 26-2 and ranked #10 in the country, that was a major upset.  Evansville is the only conference team to beat Northern Iowa this season, but the Purple Aces were playing much better basketball back then.  Evansville was 10-2 going into that first game against Northern Iowa, but since that win, the Purple Aces have gone just 8-7 over their last 15 games.  Evansville is just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last seven games, including two blowout losses on the road.  The Purple Aces lost by 19 points at Wichita State, and they lost by 26 points at Illinois State.  Evansville’s offense has been much worse away from home this season.  The Purple Aces are only averaging 62.7 points per game on the road; they scored just 43 and 51 points in their last two road losses.  Evansville only scored 52 points against Northern Iowa on their home court, so there’s little chance they will have a good offensive game tonight.         

Northern Iowa is a very good team that not many people know about.  The Panthers are a perfect 14-0 at home, and tonight is their last home game of the season.  Northern Iowa is a humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has had this game versus Evansville circled since losing; they blew a 16-point lead in that game.  The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Evansville in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 53.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northern Iowa has won their last four home games by 16 points or more, and we expect another blowout win tonight.  This is a big revenge spot for Northern Iowa, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Wednesday night.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

UNLV and Utah State played a month ago with the Rebels winning 79-77 in overtime as 5.5-point home favorites.  UNLV was in a good spot for that first meeting as they were coming in off a previous home loss while Utah State was playing on a back-to-back road set after winning by 16 points as road underdogs in Nevada in their previous game.  The roles are now reversed for the rematch as UNLV is the team that comes into tonight’s game in a terrible scheduling and situational spot.  The Rebels had an emotional week, and we expect a hangover effort tonight.  Last Wednesday night, UNLV hosted Boise State and lost the game in the last minute.  That game was dedicated to Jerry Tarkanian, and Las Vegas turned the Strip lights off after the game.  After that, UNLV played at New Mexico and won 76-68 as 4.5-point underdogs.  On Monday, Tarkanian was laid to rest.  Now the team must travel again, and play in the thin air and altitude of Logan, Utah while playing an opponent that is in terrific current form and looking to avenge an earlier season loss.  The Rebels will be hard-pressed to be competitive in this game considering the circumstances the team has been thru over the last week.      

Utah State is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Aggies have won and covered four consecutive games, including a perfect 2-0 in home games.  In the first meeting in Las Vegas, the Aggies shot 48.1% (26-54) from the field, so they know they can have success scoring on UNLV.  Over their last five games, the Utah State offense is averaging 72.4 points per game on 52.2% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land.  UNLV’s defense has been terrible on the road this season as they are giving up 72.6 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  Utah State has a +6 point differential at home this season while UNLV has a -5.2 point differential on the road.  UNLV is also without their best scorer, Rashad Vaughn, who scored 31 points in the first meeting against Utah State.  This is a bad spot for UNLV and a good revenge spot for Utah State, so we’ll lay the points with the Aggies in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play UTAH STATE (-).

Michigan State is flying well under the radar, both in conference play and on a national level.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  The Spartans are 18-8 on the season, so they appear to be just an average team on the surface.  But they are much better than that record indicates.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 61.4 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last six games, the Spartans have held their opponents to just 57.2 points per game.     

Illinois comes into this game with a 17-9 record, but the Illini roster is in flux right now.  Illinois has injuries and suspensions.  “There’s a lot of things happening that make things very, very fluid,” head coach John Groce said.  “Of course we’re playing lineups that are different from what we played prior. We don’t have that luxury right now.”  Illinois’ offense is in terrible current form as they’ve averaged just 59.6 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Illinois pulled off a major upset when they beat Michigan State 59-54 as 10-point road underdogs on February 7th.  Michigan State has had this game circled since, so we can expect a peak performance by the Spartans tonight.  This is a good spot for Michigan State to get a big win, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE.

Iowa State and Texas played last month with the Cyclones winning 89-86 at home.  The impressive part of that game was the fact that Texas made a big comeback on Iowa State’s strong home court.  The Cyclones led that game 60-39 at one point, but the Longhorns battled back and only lost that game by 3 points.  Today’s game will be played on Texas’ home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since the Cyclones are off a fortunate win at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night.  The Cyclones ended that game on a 9-0 run to win 70-65 despite shooting just 39.3% (24-61) from the field and 30% (6-20) from three-point land.  Iowa State is just 3-4 SU in true road games this season, including 2-4 in conference play.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 78.1 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land.       

Texas is a strong 11-4 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big in this game.  Texas is playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and last season.  Texas returns home off a road loss, so we expect a peak effort in this game.  All eleven of the Longhorns’ home wins this season have come by 10 points or more.  Texas has an incredible +15.5 point differential at home.  The Longhorns’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 55.4 points per game on 33.8% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Texas offense is averaging 70.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.        

9* Play TEXAS (-).

Kansas State and Baylor played last month with the Wildcats winning 63-61 as 2-point home favorites.  That game was a tale of two halves.  Baylor led 33-24 at the half before Kansas State out-scored them 39-28 in the second half.  Baylor actually led that game by 12 points in the second half, so it was a big comeback win by the Wildcats.  But this game is on the road, and they’ll be no comeback for the Wildcats this time.  Kansas State is just 1-8 SU in true road games this season.  The Wildcats’ offense has been terrible on the road.  Kansas State is only averaging 59.9 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Their offense has been even worse over their last five games as they are averaging just 58 points per game on 37.3% shooting from the field.

Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a win at Texas Tech.  Baylor has played three of their last four games on the road, and their last home game was a loss to Oklahoma State.  The Bears will be extremely focused on this game, and we expect them to bring their best effort.  Baylor plays on a very strong home court where they are a 13-2 SU this season with their average win coming by a whopping 18.6 points per game.  Baylor has a terrific defense, especially at home.  The Bears are holding their opponents to just 56.9 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor is also a very good offensive rebounding team; the Bears collected 11 offensive rebounds while holding Kansas State to just 6 in the first meeting.  This is a good revenge spot for Baylor, so we’ll lay the points with the Bears in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Pittsburgh and Syracuse just played two weeks ago with the Panthers winning 83-77 as 3.5-point home favorites.  We remember that game well as we had a Best Bet winner on Pittsburgh.  The main factor in that handicap was the fact that Syracuse imposed a post-season ban right after coming off a big come from behind win the night before.  It was a flat spot for Syracuse, and even though they lost, they actually played much better than expected.  Since that win, Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 SU and ATS with the two losses coming by 12 and 13 points.  The Panthers are just 1-6 in true road games this season.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been bad away from home as they are giving up 69.7 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Pittsburgh has a -10.1 point differential on the road this season as four of their five conference road losses have come by 12 points or more.         

Syracuse has played good basketball since their loss in Pittsburgh.  The Orange have gone 2-1, including a 69-59 home win over Louisville in their last game.  Their loss came against Duke, so there’s no shame in that defeat.  Syracuse led by double digits at Pittsburgh, and they led 72-71 with just three minutes left to play in the game.  Despite losing, the Orange were the better team in that game, and with the rematch on their strong home court (13-3), we expect them to avenge that loss.  Syracuse has a +12.9 point differential at home this season.  Their offense is averaging 71.8 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  Syracuse has played terrific defense at home as well as they are only allowing 58.9 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Syracuse in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play SYRACUSE (-).

San Diego upset BYU 77-74 as 4-point home underdogs earlier this season.  That was a fluky result for San Diego as it was the first time the Toreros scored more than 60 points in a conference game this season.  San Diego trailed by 5 points at the half before rallying back and out-scoring BYU 44-36 in the second half.  The Toreros played well above their offensive level in that game, and it’s highly unlikely they can repeat that performance in the rematch against BYU.  San Diego is just 3-6 SU in true road games while only averaging 61.8 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field.  The Toreros are in an extremely strange scheduling spot as this is their first game of the season outside the state of California, plus it takes place in the thin air and altitude of Provo, Utah.  San Diego is also off an emotionally draining game on Saturday.  The Toreros were home underdogs to St. Mary’s, and after trailing by 11 points at the half, San Diego made a big comeback and forced overtime.  But they ended up losing that game 69-62, and that defeat halted their mini winning streak.  Now they must take to the road and face a motivated BYU looking to avenge their earlier loss.

BYU is in tremendous current form right now as the Cougars are on a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run.  BYU has won their last three games by 19, 22, and 25 points.  The Cougars have won five of their last six games by an average of 18.2 points per game.  They come into tonight’s game with a 20-8 SU record, including a 12-3 mark on their home court.  BYU is playing their final home game of the season, and they have four seniors that want to go out with a big win.  BYU’s offense has been tremendous, especially on their home court.  The Cougars are averaging 71.8 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field.  This is a big revenge game for BYU, and the Cougars have crushed San Diego by an average of 22.3 points per game in their last three visits to Provo.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Thursday night. 

9* Play BYU (-).

Iowa State and Oklahoma State played earlier this season with the Cyclones winning 63-61 at home.  The impressive part of that game was the fact that Oklahoma State held the potent Iowa State offense to just 63 points on their home court.  The Cyclones have scored 73 points or more in every one of their other home games this season.  The Cowboys’ defense held them to 10 points less, so that alone makes the rematch a difficult challenge for Iowa State.  Tonight’s game will be played on Oklahoma State’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since they also play on one of the most intimidating courts in college basketball.  Iowa State is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season, including 1-4 in conference play.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 80.3 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.       

Oklahoma State is a strong 11-2 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big tonight.  Oklahoma State is playing with triple revenge after losing earlier this season and also losing a pair of games in overtime last season.  All eleven of the Cowboys’ home wins this season have come by 5 points or more with ten of their wins coming by 11 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  The Cowboys also have an offense that is averaging 69.8 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  Oklahoma State has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Cowboys in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Massachusetts beat Rhode Island 60-56 earlier this season, but the Minutemen needed a big rally late in the game to get that win.  Massachusetts trailed 53-47 with a coupe of minutes left to play before going on a 13-3 run to close the game and win by 4 points.  That win was their second consecutive big comeback against Rhode Island; the Minutemen also trailed in the A-10 tournament last year before winning 65-61.  Massachusetts has to play this rematch on Rhode Island’s strong home court, and once they get down, they’ll be no fortunate comeback in this game.  Massachusetts plays at an extremely fast pace, but they will not get their preferred pace in this game.  The Minutemen have been held to less than 70 points in seven games on the road this season.  They’ve gone 3-4 SU in those games, but two of their wins came when they were favored.  That means Massachusetts is just 1-4 SU and ATS as an underdog on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Their four losses have come by 6, 13, 20, 22 points which averages out to 15.3 points per game.    

Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 17-6 record, including an 11-1 mark on their home court.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 21 of their 23 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  The Rams have held all 12 of their home opponents to 68 points or less.  Rhode Island’s defense has been tremendous, especially on their home court.  The Rams are holding their opponents to just 56.8 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  This is a big revenge game for the Rhode Island players:  “It’s a huge game for us,” T.J. Buchanan said.  “We know the importance of this game.”  E.C. Matthews echoed those thoughts: “I think the fact that we’ve got them at home where we thrive, tomorrow is when we’re finally going to get the win.”  We’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Alabama versus Auburn is a fierce in-state rivalry that usually brings out the best in both teams.  Alabama won the first meeting 57-55 back on January 24th.  That game was on their home court, and Auburn gave them all they could handle.  Alabama actually trailed with just over 2 minutes left to play, and they won the game on a last-second basket.  The Crimson Tide will now play the rematch on the road, and they’ve been a much weaker team away from home.  Alabama is just 2-6 in true road games this season, and they have a -2.7 point differential away from home.  That small differential doesn't appear to be too bad, but Alabama plays at an extremely slow pace which makes the margin look a lot better than it actually is.  Overall, Alabama’s defense is giving up 67.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field on the road this season.  Over their last five road games, Alabama has allowed 70.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field.     

Auburn comes into tonight’s game off a confidence-building win at Georgia on Saturday.  The Tigers were 11.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they return home and they are catching points once again.  Home underdogs off a road underdog win fit a strong performance pattern, and since Auburn is playing their rival, we expect another supreme effort out of the Tigers.  Auburn has lost four straight home games after opening the season with a 9-1 record on their home court, so they have that motivation as well.  To be fair, Auburn played better teams in those recent home games, and they are taking a step-down in class against Alabama.  The Tigers’ offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 76.2 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land.  Auburn is in a good spot to avenge their earlier season loss to Alabama, so we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play AUBURN (+).

Monday, Feb. 16

NCAA Basketball

(3% play)  CREIGHTON +2.5 (vs. Butler) - 9:15 pm ET (FOX1) #710

Butler is not in a good scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Creighton.  The Bulldogs come in off a heartbreaking last-second loss at home to Villanova on Saturday night.  Butler led that game with a minute to play, but they allowed Villanova to score 6 points, including the game-winning three with just 1.5 second left to play in the game.  The Bulldogs lost 68-65, and now they must take to the road and lay points just two days later.  Butler also lost one of their best players, third-leading scorer Andrew Chrabascz, for two to four weeks with a broken hand.  “We’re certainly not a team that has had to adjust to a key injury,” Butler coach Chris Holtmann said.  Butler has started the same lineup in all 25 games, but that won’t be the case tonight, and it comes at the worst possible time. 

Creighton has been playing much better basketball recently.  The Bluejays are 3-2 over their last five games after suffering thru a 9-game losing streak.  One of Creighton’s losses during their slump came at Butler, but they only lost that game by 3 points (64-61).  The Bluejays actually led that game with two minutes left to play, and that’s impressive since Butler plays on an extremely strong home court.  Creighton has been waiting for the rematch, and they are motivated to atone for that loss.  “We lost a close game to them, a game we thought we had in our hands but we let it slip away, said Creighton head coach Greg McDermott.  “Our guys will be ready. We have an eight-day break afterward, so we don’t have to save ourselves for anything.”  The players feel the same way: “We want to get that one back,” Ricky Kreklow said.  “We just didn’t finish that one out at their place. This is a game we can win.”  With Butler in a terrible spot, we’ll take the points with Creighton in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CREIGHTON (+).

Minnesota is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Golden Gophers have won three straight games, and five of their last seven games overall.  Over their last ten games, Minnesota is only 5-5 SU, but all five losses have come by 5 points or less, including three losses by 3 points or less.  Those numbers show just how good Minnesota is playing right now, and we expect their good current form to continue tonight in Indiana.  The biggest improvement Minnesota has made has been their defense.  Over their last five games, the Gophers’ defense has held their opponents to just 58.6 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field.  Indiana is all offense and no defense, so Minnesota has a very good shot at winning this game since their defense is in tremendous current form.  

Indiana is in poor current form.  The Hoosiers are just 2-4 SU over their last six games with their two wins coming over a poor Michigan team and a terrible Rutgers team.  Both of those games were at home, but Indiana only won by a combined 11 points.  Minnesota is a significantly better opponent, so the Hoosiers are taking a major step-up in class for this game.  Indiana has the worst defense in the Big 10 as they are allowing an ugly 1.14 points per possession.  Over their last five games, Indiana has given up 74.8 points per game on 52.3% shooting from the field and 43.4% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Minnesota has a +6 point differential.  To compare, Indiana has a -4.2 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Minnesota is in better current form, so there’s good value in taking points with the Gophers in this game on Sunday night.      

10* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Maryland appears to be a good team with their 20-5 record this season.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and a 15-1 home record.  Maryland is just 2-4 SU in conference road games this season, and tonight’s game at Penn State will be another road loss on their resume.  The Terrapins only beat Penn State by 6 points (64-58) on their home court ten days ago.  The game was tied with just five minutes left to play, and Maryland only lead by a single point with one minute left to play in the game.  Since that game was so close on Maryland’s strong home court, the rematch on the road figures to be a difficult task for the Terrapins.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home as they are giving up 70.6 points per game on 44.4% shooting form the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.           

Penn State returns home after playing three of their last four games on the road, so we fully expect a peak performance in this home game tonight.  They’ve won their last three home games, and their last home loss came in overtime.  At home, Penn State’s defense has been outstanding while holding opponents to just 58.6 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 26.3% shooting from three-point land.  Penn State has also played better basketball than Maryland in conference games; the Nittany Lions rank 7th while the Terrapins rank 9th in efficiency margin.  Over their last five games, Maryland has a -6.2 point differential despite playing three of those games at home.  Penn State only has a -2 point differential over their last five games despite playing three of their games on the road.  Penn State is in a good spot, so we’ll back the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play PENN STATE (-).

Colorado State and San Diego State played three weeks ago with the Rams winning 79-73 as 2-point home favorites.  That game was a fluky result as Colorado State simply shot the lights out.  The Rams shot 46.3% (25-54) from the field and an incredible 57.1% (12-21) from three-point land.  That was just the third time a team scored more than 70 points on San Diego State this season; the other two games went to overtime.  Despite that hot shooting, Colorado State was only able to win that game by 6 points on their home court.  The Rams’ offense has been worse on the road this season, especially their three-point shooting.  Colorado State is only averaging 68.2 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land away from home.  To compare, Colorado State shoots 36.7% from three-point land overall this season.  Colorado State has lost their last two road games, and they haven’t had much success at San Diego State in recent years, losing their last two trips by a total of 16 points.      

San Diego State is a perfect 3-0 SU on their home court since losing the first meeting to Colorado State; they won each of those games by 11 points or more.  The Aztecs play on a very strong home court where they are a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their average win coming by a whopping 14.5 points per game.  San Diego State has a terrific defense, especially at home.  The Aztecs are holding their opponents to just 46.1 points per game on 35.2% shooting from the field and 23.6% shooting from three-point land.  San Diego State is also a very good offensive rebounding team, and that gives them a bunch of second-chance points.  The Aztecs collected 11 offensive rebounds while holding Colorado State to just 5 in the first meeting.  This is a good revenge spot for San Diego State, so we’ll lay the points with the Aztecs in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (-).

Villanova is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler with a 22-2 record.  The Wildcats beat Butler 67-55 on New Year’s Eve, but that game came when the Bulldogs were in poor form and in the middle of a 3-4 SU slump.  Villanova will get a much stiffer challenge from Butler tonight, especially since the Wildcats’ play on the road has been shaky at times.  Villanova is 5-2 SU in true road games, and their two losses had two commonalities that they will face in this game.  In their two conference road losses, the Wildcats were forced to play in slow, half-court games while being held to just 61 and 58 points.  Villanova only scored 67 points on their home court in their win over Butler, so it’s quite likely that the Wildcats will be held to fewer points on Butler’s home court.

Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Bulldogs have won five straight games, and seven of their last eight games overall.  Butler plays on a very strong home court where they are 12-1 this season with their lone loss coming by just 4 points.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been tremendous at home as they are only allowing 56.8 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense is also significantly better at home where they are averaging 76.7 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 38% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been worse on the road; they are allowing 65.1 points per game on 43.3% shooting form the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they are getting points in this game, we’ll back the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

9* Play BUTLER (+).

Wisconsin-Green Bay and Valparaiso played three weeks ago with the Phoenix winning 51-50 as 5.5-point home favorites.  Green Bay was catching Valparaiso at the perfect time as the Crusaders were playing their third consecutive road game in the span of six days.  Despite being in a terrible spot, Valparaiso was the better team even though they lost; they actually led that game by 10 points at one time.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is now the team in the bad spot for the rematch as they will be playing their second straight road game, and their fourth road game over their last five games overall.  The Phoenix are a much better home team as well, especially on the defensive end of the court.  On the road, Wisconsin-Green Bay is allowing 67 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Phoenix are not playing up to expectation right now as they are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games, and 3-6 ATS over their last nine games overall.  They were 7-1 ATS over their previous eight games.

Valparaiso is a perfect 4-0 SU since losing the first meeting to Wisconsin-Green Bay.  The Crusaders play on a very strong home court where they are 11-1 SU this season.  Their lone home loss came out of conference to New Mexico.  Five of their six conference home wins have come by six points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 14.2 points per game.  Valparaiso has a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 61.5 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Valparaiso has a +8.6 point differential.  To compare, Wisconsin-Green Bay only has a +2.4 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Valparaiso is playing the better basketball right now, and in a good revenge spot, we’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Minnesota and Iowa played last month with the Hawkeyes winning 77-75 as 3-point road underdogs.  We remember that game well as we had a Best Bet winner on Iowa.  But tonight’s game sets-up totally different, and because of that, we’re going to back Minnesota in the rematch.  Going into the first meeting, the Golden Gophers were in terrible current form as they were on a 4-game losing streak.  Since their loss to Iowa, Minnesota is playing much better basketball, and they come into tonight’s game with three wins in their last four games.  Over their last nine games, Minnesota is only 4-5 SU, but all five losses have come by 5 points or less.  That means Minnesota is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run based on the posted line for tonight’s game against Iowa.  Over their last five games, Minnesota’s defense has held their opponents to just 57.2 points per game on 40% shooting from the field.  

Iowa is just 2-3 SU over their last five games with their two wins coming over a poor Michigan team and an overrated Maryland team.  Iowa shot the ball incredibly well in those two wins; the Hawkeyes hit greater than 70% from two-point range.  Overall, Iowa shot 63.4% (59-93) from the field and 41% (9-22) from three-point land in those back-to-back wins.  Minnesota is better than Iowa’s recent opponents, and since they shot the ball so well, the Hawkeyes’ offense will regress sharply in this game.  Over their last five games, Minnesota has a +4.4 point differential.  To compare, Iowa has a -2.6 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Minnesota is in better current form, so there’s good value in taking points with the Gophers in this game.  In a game that will come right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Thursday night.      

10* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Virginia is having an excellent season.  The Cavaliers come into tonight’s game with a 21-1 record, including a perfect 8-0 mark in true road games.  However, Virginia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at NC State.  The Cavaliers are coming off three consecutive emotional games against Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville.  This is a huge flat spot on Virginia’s schedule, especially since they play four of their next five games at home.  Virginia also lost their best guard, Justin Anderson, to an injury in their last game, and his absence will have a negative impact on both ends of the court.  “We aren’t going to be exactly the same,” Virginia head coach Tony Bennett said.  “We don’t have a replica to replace Justin. We’ll have to look a little different and figure it out as we go.”  Virginia only beat NC State by 10 points at home earlier this season, and in fact, the Cavaliers trailed with just over 8 minutes left to play in that game.

NC State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 88-84 loss at Wake Forest.  The Wolfpack have also lost their last three home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they’ve had eight days to prepare for this game.  NC State’s season hinges on this game, and head coach Mark Gottfried knows it.  “The time is now, it’s time to step up and get going.”  The Wolfpack are 12-5 at home where they are averaging 74.3 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field.  NC State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 64.4 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  NC State is in a good spot while Virginia is not, so we’ll take the points with the Wolfpack in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NC STATE (+).

Cincinnati and Temple played earlier this season with the Bearcats winning by 31 points (84-53) on their home court.  That game was abnormal for Cincinnati as their offense only averages 62.4 points per game.  The Bearcats have scored 67 points or less in five of their six games since their 84-point outburst against Temple, and we expect a normal game from Cincinnati tonight.  On the road, the Bearcats are just 3-4 this season.  Their offense only averages 57.3 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from the field.  Cincinnati was a 9-point and 10.5-point favorites in two of their last three road games which shows they were playing inferior opponents.  Tonight, the Bearcats will face a Temple team that is every bit as good as they are despite the earlier season result.    

Cincinnati and Temple are mirror images of one another.  Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball.  Temple has been a different team since that 31-point loss to Cincinnati.  The Owls are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS since that defeat, and they’ve had this game circled in red since getting embarrassed.  Temple plays tenacious defense as they are only allowing 57.8 points per game on 35.7% shooting from the field and 27.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Owls are 10-2 at home this season with both losses coming in back-to-back games right before facing Cincinnati for the first time.  We expect Temple to atone for the earlier season loss in a big way, so we’ll lay the points with the Owls on Tuesday night.  

10* Play TEMPLE (-).

Kentucky is obviously having a fantastic season; the Wildcats are a perfect 23-0 SU.  However, the Wildcats have been money burners all season while going just 11-12 ATS.  Kentucky is just 1-5 ATS over their last six games, including 1-2 ATS on the road.  Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been as good on the road this season.  Overall, the Wildcats average 73.6 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field.  On the road, Kentucky averages just 65.5 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field.  That’s 8.1 points per game less and 4% shooting less per game, so the Wildcats appear to be a bit vulnerable away from home.  Kentucky also gets a poor match-up against LSU in this game as the Tigers are one of the top three teams in the SEC in 2-point defense.  Kentucky faced the other top two teams; they won 70-64 in overtime at Texas A&M and they only beat Vanderbilt 65-57 on their home court.                 

LSU is a good team that has a lot of talent.  The Tigers are 17-6 on the season, including a strong 11-2 at home.  LSU’s two home losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The Tigers’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 76.8 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field.  LSU is also playing solid defense at home where they are holding opponents to just 66.8 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which Kentucky has struggled this season.  The Tigers’ ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will keep them in this game throughout.  We’ll take the big points with LSU in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play LSU (+).

Notre Dame is off an embarrassing 30-point loss at Duke on Saturday.  And the knee-jerk reaction would be to play the Irish in their next game.  However, this is an extremely poor match-up for Notre Dame, and their recent play also suggests that the Irish may be a tad overrated.  Notre Dame is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS over their last three games.  The Irish could actually be on a 1-4 SU slide and an 0-5 ATS run; they were very fortunate to win at NC State in overtime and their home win over Duke came down to the final few seconds.  Overall, Notre Dame owns 3 losses away from home this season because their defense has been unable to get stops.  The Irish allow 72.2 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Notre Dame’s defense has been even worse over their last five games while allowing 76 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and 41.65 shooting from three-point land.         

Clemson returns home off a road loss in Miami.  The Tigers are only 9-4 SU at home this season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 4, and 5 points.  Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half-court style will frustrate Notre Dame.  The Tigers have held 20 of their 23 opponents to 69 points or less.  Clemson has held their last ten opponents to 65 points or less, including eight opponents to 59 points or less.  Overall, Clemson allows just 60.1 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Notre Dame has been held to less than 70 points three times this season; the Irish are just 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (62-59) at Georgia Tech.  We’ll take the points with Clemson in this game on Tuesday night.    

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Utah is a very good team that comes into this game with a 17-4 record.  However, 13 of their wins have come at home, and they are only 3-3 in true road games this season.  Utah is playing their third consecutive road game tonight, and it will also be their fifth road game over their last seven games.  Utah usually owns a major advantage when playing their slow pace against teams that want to get out and run.  The Pac 12 conference as a whole likes to play fast, but Colorado is the one team that plays just as slow as Utah.  That negates a huge edge for Utah, and it’s why we’ve seen these two teams play close, competitive games recently.  The first meeting this season was a 74-49 Utah win, but Colorado was missing their three best players in that game.  If we eliminate that result, the average winning margin over the previous four meetings has been just 7 points per game. 

Colorado and Utah are mirror images of one another.  Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball.  Colorado is an experienced team that will have three of the four best players on the court tonight.  The Buffaloes play tenacious defense as they are only allowing 59.2 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Colorado also gets to the free throw line a lot, and they make the most of those trips as they are converting on 72.6% of their attempts this season.  The Buffaloes are 9-2 at home this season with both losses only coming by 2 points apiece.  We expect this game to a be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the points with Colorado on Saturday night.  

10* Play COLORADO (+).

Texas A&M and Missouri played on January 21st with the Aggies winning 62-50 on their home court.  Missouri actually led that game 31-24 at the half before Texas A&M out-scored the Tigers 38-19 in the second half.  Texas A&M is 10-1 at home this season, but just 3-3 in true road games.  The Aggies will be playing back-to-back road games after losing 69-59 in Mississippi on Wednesday night.  Texas A&M’s offense has struggled to score points away from home as they are only averaging 61.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  They only scored 62 points on Missouri at home, so it’s hard to imagine the Aggies’ offense having much success on the Tigers’ home court.

Missouri comes into tonight’s game off eight straight losses.  However, four of those games were on the road, so we can excuse those defeats.  In their four recent home losses, the Tigers had to play Kentucky, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee.  Those first three teams are all atop the SEC standings, so Missouri has faced a brutal schedule.  Missouri is a scrappy team that only gets blown out by superior teams, and Texas A&M is anything but that.  Missouri and Texas A&M both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder.  The Tigers match-up extremely well with Texas A&M as they have a strong 2-point defense as only 47% of their opponents’ points are scored from inside the arc.  Texas A&M’s offense is reliant on 2-point shooting (57% of their points scored), so the Aggies will have trouble scoring inside on Missouri.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Missouri in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Syracuse is having a tumultuous season, and they come into today’s game in Pittsburgh in a very strange way.  After coming back from a 13-point deficit with just over 5 minutes left to play against Virginia Tech on Tuesday night, Syracuse announced on Wednesday that they would self-impose a post-season ban for this year.  That is simply deflating news for a struggling team, and the timing couldn’t have been any worse.  If that wasn’t bad enough, head coach Jim Boeheim then ripped one of his players to the media in a post-game press conference; the same player who led the Syracuse comeback win.  “You know Ronnie, unfortunately he believes he can make 3s. I don’t know why he believes that. There’s no reason that he should believe that and he continues to prove every night and every day that he can’t,” Boeheim said.  After hearing Boeheim rip him, Ron Patterson said he was done with shooting the ball.  “Never again,” he said while tossing bits of popcorn into his mouth.  There’s a lot of dissension with Syracuse right now, and the team may simply pack it in down the stretch.      

Pittsburgh is trending in the opposite direction as the Panthers have won back-to-back games, including a nice upset win of Notre Dame.  Pittsburgh has played a brutal schedule recently; the Panthers had to face Duke, Louisville, and Notre Dame in three of their last five games.  After beating Notre Dame, the Panthers were in a big flat spot and only beat Bryant 72-67.  Now that they got that game out of the way, we expect the Panthers to play a much better game today against Syracuse.  Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU at home this season while holding opponents to just 61.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  Despite the recent losses, Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon senses his team is close to breaking out: “We’re not far off.”  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PITTSBURGH (-).

Providence is a good team, but the Friars are not in good current form.  Providence is just 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their wins coming in overtime.  The Friars are playing back-to-back road games after losing 75-66 at St. John’s on Saturday.  Providence is really struggling to shoot the ball from three-point land this season.  Coming into tonight’s game, the Friars rank dead last in the Big East conference while hitting just 27% from three-point land.  Overall, Providence is hitting just 30.3% from three-point land this season.  Their 3-point issues will be a major factor in this game since Georgetown is a terrible matchup for Providence.  The Friars score 56.1% of their points from 2-point range, but Georgetown only allows 45.3% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  “It will be a grind-it-out game; that’s how they play,” Providence coach Ed Cooley said.  “I expect a physical, barroom brawl at their place.”   

Georgetown played at Providence on January 10th, and the Hoyas lost that game by 3 points (60-57) in overtime.  The Friars only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land in that game.  Providence won the game at the free throw line as they held a 10-point edge over the Hoyas.  With this game being on Georgetown’s home court, we do not expect Providence to get a favorable whistle, and in fact, we expect the complete opposite.  Georgetown is 10-2 at home this season with one loss coming to Kansas, and the other loss coming to Xavier in their last home game.  Seven of the Hoyas’ ten home wins have come by 14 points or more while all six of Providence’s losses this season have come by 9 points or more.  Georgetown owns a +11.6 point differential at home this season while Providence owns a -5.6 point differential on the road.  We’ll lay the points with the Hoyas in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Northern Iowa is having a fantastic season; the Panthers come into tonight’s game with a 20-2 SU record.  However, this looks like a letdown spot tonight as Northern Iowa enters off their biggest win of the season on Saturday afternoon; they beat Wichita State 70-54 as 2-point home underdogs.  That win snapped Wichita State’s 27-game conference winning streak, and Northern Iowa couldn’t have played a more perfect game.  The Panthers shot an incredible 60% (24-40) from the field and 71.4% (5-7) from three-point land.  The 70 points scored by Northern Iowa were the most points they scored over their previous nine games.  Northern Iowa must now take to the road and lay points while being in a huge letdown role; this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Panthers.  Northern Iowa’s offense is off their best game of the season against the best team in the conference, so we expect major regression from the Panthers in this game.

Indiana State played at Northern Iowa on January 21st, and the Sycamores only lost that game by 6 points (66-60).  The Panthers shot 50% (9-18) from three-point land in that game while Indiana State only shot 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land.  The fact that the Panthers only won that game by 6 points on their home court bodes extremely well for the Sycamores in this game.  Indiana State is a perfect 5-0 SU at home in conference play this season, and Northern Iowa has not been as dominant on the road as they’ve been at home in conference play.  The Panthers lost at Evansville and only beat Illinois State by one point (54-53) and Southern Illinois by 7 points (59-52).  Northern Iowa does not have an explosive offense as they are averaging only 57.8 points per game on the road in conference play.  Indiana State's third leading scorer, Khristian Smith, is questionable tonight with a thumb injury, but this injury is overrated as Smith is the worst shooter on the team, averaging just 36.8% FG and 19.0% on three-point shots this season.  Indiana State is in a tremendous spot for an upset win, so we’ll take the points with the Sycamores as a home underdog tonight.       

10* Play INDIANA STATE (+).

Iowa State and Kansas played earlier this season with the Cyclones winning 86-81 at home.  That game was close throughout before Iowa State extended their lead to double digits.  But the impressive part is that Kansas was able to rally back on the road at one of the toughest places to play in college basketball.  Tonight’s game will be played on Kansas’ home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since they also play on one of the most intimidating courts in college basketball.  Iowa State is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season, and while they only lost those games by a combined 6 points, the opponents were not nearly as good as Kansas.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 74.8 points per game this season.        

Kansas is a perfect 10-0 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big tonight.  Kansas is playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and also losing at home to Iowa State last season.  Nine of the Jayhawks’ ten home wins this season have come by 8 points or more with their average win coming by 16.2 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 62.2 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 78.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  Kansas has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Monday night.       

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Colorado comes into this game off a wild 3-overtime game at USC on Thursday night.  The Buffaloes must wheel right back and play another fast-paced team on the road just two days later.  Colorado had four players play 36 minutes or more, including three guys who played 40 minutes or more.  That was the second consecutive game in which Colorado scored 90 points or more, and there’s a good shot that the Buffaloes’ offense will regress sharply in this game.  Overall, Colorado averages just 61.3 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The Buffaloes’ defense is giving up 71.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  That defense is going to get torched by a UCLA offense that plays their best basketball on their home court.            

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 12-9 on the season, but ten of those wins have come at home.  UCLA’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 82.5 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 42.1% shooting from three-point land.  UCLA only lost by 6 points (62-56) at Colorado earlier this season, but that game was in the midst of a 4-game road trip that included games against Kentucky and Utah.  The Bruins actually led that game with 5 minutes left to play, so despite playing in altitude in a tough spot, UCLA gave Colorado all they wanted on their home court.  UCLA is simply a much better team at home, and with Colorado off a draining 3-overtime game, we’ll lay the points with the Bruins on Saturday night.  

10* Play UCLA (-).

North Carolina and Louisville played earlier this month with the Tar Heels winning 72-71 at home.  That game was tied at the half, but the Cardinals actually led by 13 points in the second half before North Carolina rallied to steal the win.  Louisville now gets the rematch on their home court, and we expect them to avenge that earlier loss.  North Carolina has yet to play a conference road game against an upper echelon team, and since they lost by 14 points at Kentucky earlier this season, we do not expect the results to be pretty in this game.  North Carolina’s offense is good, but they are much more efficient at home, and they haven’t faced a defense as good as Louisville’s on the road this season.

Louisville returns home off back-to-back road wins, and since they lost their last home game to Duke, we expect a big effort in this game.  The Cardinals are 11-2 at home this season; their other loss came to Kentucky by just 8 points.  All eleven of Louisville’s home wins have come by 6 points or more, and three of North Carolina’s four losses have come by 5 points or more.  Louisville has an exceptional defense that is holding their opponents to just 51.8 points per game on 34% shooting from the field and 27.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Louisville was the better team in the first meeting despite losing, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Notre Dame is having an excellent season, and they come into this game off their biggest win of the season.  The Fighting Irish beat Duke 77-73 as 1.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.  In their game before Duke, the Irish won at NC State in overtime.  Now they must wheel back on the road and lay points into a Pittsburgh team that is much better than their record indicates.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Notre Dame, and the matchup does them no favors either.  Notre Dame has a tremendous offense, but they play a small-ball style that leaves them extremely vulnerable inside the paint.  Pittsburgh’s trademark is having a strong interior presence, and Notre Dame will be up against it on both ends of the court.

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, but two of those games were on the road.  They lost their last game at Virginia Tech in overtime after blowing a 7-point lead late, so it’s not like the Panthers have been playing terrible basketball.  Their other two losses were at Duke and then Louisville in back-to-back games.  Pittsburgh is back at home where they are 9-2 this season while holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Despite the recent losses, Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon senses his team is close to breaking out: “I keep telling them that I believe today is the day we are going to become that better defensive team. We’re not far off.”  This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame, so we’ll take the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

Oregon State continues to fly well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  The Beavers are 5-2 SU over their last seven games, and they already beat Arizona this season.  Oregon State won 58-56 at home earlier this month.  Oregon State is playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.5 points per game on 36.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”  The Beavers know they can hang with Arizona, especially since they already beat them this season. 

Arizona is a very good team, but the posted spread on tonight’s game is simply way too high.  The Wildcats come into tonight’s game off one of their best performances of the season when they beat Oregon 90-56 on Wednesday night.  The Wildcats shot an incredible 59.3% (35-59) from the field and 40% (6-15) from three-point land in that game.  Arizona will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers again, and teams following such a performance often have a sub-par offensive game in their next outing.  Arizona will win this game SU, but Oregon State is a good team that plays at an extremely slow pace which shortens the game.  We’ll take the generous points with Oregon State in this game on Friday night.           

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Oregon and Arizona State played earlier this season with the Ducks winning 59-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and it was just a 2-point game with 2 minutes to play before Oregon extended their lead at the free throw line.  Tonight’s game will be played on Arizona State’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss.  Oregon is 0-3 SU in true road games this season; they lost those road games by 8, 9, and 34 points.  The Ducks’ defense has really struggled to slow down their opponents away from home this season.  Oregon is allowing an ugly 94.3 points per game on 56.3% shooting from the field and 51.9% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.        

Arizona State got an impressive 73-55 home win over Oregon State in their last game.  The Sun Devils play on a very strong home court where they are 10-2 this season.  Nine of the Sun Devils’ ten home wins this season have come by 7 points or more with their average win coming by 17.9 points per game.  Arizona State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 60 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  The Sun Devils also have a potent offense that is averaging 73.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Santa Clara and San Diego played earlier this month with the Broncos winning 59-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and the Toreros actually led by 6 points with just 6 minutes left to play in the game.  San Diego now gets the rematch on their home court, and we expect them to avenge that earlier loss.  Santa Clara is just 2-5 SU in true road games this season, and they haven’t played a road game since January 10th.  The Broncos’ three conference road losses have all been blowouts; they lost by 13, 16, and 22 points.  Santa Clara’s offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season as they are only averaging 57.4 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 33.8% shooting from three-point land.

San Diego has only played 9 of their 21 games at home this season.  The Toreros are 6-3 in those nine home games with two of the losses coming against Gonzaga and Portland, two of the best teams in the league.  San Diego plays at an extremely slow pace while playing exceptional defense.  The Toreros are holding their opponents to just 59.4 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  San Diego is off a momentum-building 77-74 home win over BYU on Saturday, and that win will propel them going forward.  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Toreros in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play SAN DIEGO (-).

Portland was slated to a have a big season, but injuries threw them off course.  Leading scorer Kevin Bailey was out for more than a month, and point guards Alec Wintering and Bryce Pressley both missed some time.  Portland is as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season, and head coach Eric Reveno likes where his team is now.  “I feel like we’ve got the band back together,” Reveno said.  “It’s the same group we had in Nashville when we played great.  We have a lot of guys in the locker room who care and are working hard, so now just relax and play.  The energy and effort are there.  Now just finish.”  Portland lost 87-75 to Gonzaga earlier this month, but that was a 75-70 game with less than 2 minutes to play.  The Pilots know they can hang with Gonzaga, especially now that they are fully healthy.

Gonzaga is an excellent team, and they can make a deep run in the NCAA tournament this year.  However, this looks like a potential flat spot tonight, especially with a big revenge game on deck this Saturday versus Memphis.  Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game off their best performance of the season when they beat Pacific 91-60 last Saturday night.  The Zags shot an incredible 60% (33-55) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land in that game.  Gonzaga played one of the best games in the efficiency era as they scored an amazing 1.48 points per possession on offense.  Gonzaga will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers again, and teams following such a performance often have a sub-par offensive game in their next outing.  Gonzaga will win this game straight up, but Portland is a good team that is catching the Zags at the perfect time.  We’ll take the generous points with Portland as a big underdog in this game on Thursday night.           

9* Play PORTLAND (+).

Connecticut and Cincinnati played earlier this season with the Huskies winning 62-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and the Bearcats actually led by 4 points at halftime.  It was just a 2-point game with 2 minutes to play before Connecticut extended their lead at the free throw line.  Tonight’s game will be played on Cincinnati’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss.  Connecticut is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season; they lost their last two road games by 8 and 13 points.  The Huskies’ offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season.  Connecticut is only averaging 59.5 points per game on the road, and they will struggle to score points against a stout Cincinnati defense.  The Bearcats are only allowing opponents to score 52.7 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.

Cincinnati plays on a very strong home court where they are 11-1 SU this season and 29-2 over their last 31 games.  Ten of the Bearcats’ eleven home wins this season have come by 6 points or more with their average win coming by 15.2 points per game.  Cincinnati wins with their defense, but their offense has played much better at home than on the road this season.  At home, the Bearcats are averaging 64.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field.  Cincinnati is slated to be a #8 or #9 seed in the NCAA tournament, but they can improve to a #4 or #5 seed if they hold serve at home the remainder of this season.  The Bearcats’ defense will prove to be too much for Connecticut in this game, so we’ll lay the points with Cincinnati on Thursday night.       

9* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Oregon State continues to fly well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  The Beavers are 5-1 SU over their last six games, and they are simply undervalued in the pointspread.  Oregon State is playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 55.7 points per game on 35.9% shooting from the field and 27.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”

Arizona State has already lost to Oregon State this season when the Beavers won 55-47 back on January 8th.  The Sun Devils’ offense was unable to get anything going in that game as they shot just 39.5% (17-43) from the field and 19% (4-21) from three-point land.  Arizona State’s offense is predicated on making three pointers, but as noted above, Oregon State has an excellent three-point defense.  The Sun Devils will be unable to score points consistently in this game, and that was the case in the first meetings.  Arizona State is just 2-5 SU over their last seven games, and one of their wins only came by 6 points.  Oregon State’s slow pace and their strong defense will frustrate Arizona State once again, so we’ll take the Beavers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have seven losses on the season.  However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and against teams with similar talent like Michigan, the Cornhuskers can hold their own.  Nebraska plays at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 61.4 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land.  Since joining the Big 10 conference, Nebraska has beat every team except Michigan, so tonight’s game is huge for the Cornhuskers.  “We owe them, man, we owe them,” senior Leslee Smith said.  “That’s like the biggest thing.”  Head coach Tim Miles concurs: “It’s been brought up. This is a very important week. We need to play well, and when I say play well, I mean win.”

Michigan is really struggling; the Wolverines are just 12-8 on the season.  Michigan is 6-4 over their last ten games, but five of their wins have come by single digits, including their last three wins which all came by 5 points or less.  Michigan is off a heartbreaking 69-64 home overtime loss to Wisconsin on Saturday; they were 10.5-point underdogs in that game.  “What I see is a terrific defensive team that is as good as anybody we’ve played,” Michigan head coach John Beilein said.  “We’ve just gone from the frying pan to the fire with Wisconsin and now Nebraska. That’s two teams that are really hard to score points on.”  The Wolverines will be playing with a hangover tonight, especially since they’ve handled Nebraska in the past.  Michigan’s offense has struggled to score points consistently this season as they are only averaging 63.4 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field.  Michigan lost their best player, Caris LeVert, for the season, and five other regulars have been slowed recently by illness or injury.  “We’re pretty banged up,” Beilein said.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Nebraska in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Notre Dame is having an excellent season.  The Fighting Irish come into tonight’s game with an 18-2 record, including a perfect 3-0 mark in true road games.  However, two of those three wins have come by a combined 4 points against good competition.  We can disregard their 25-point win at Virginia Tech who is one of the worst teams in the conference.  Notre Dame is now playing their first true back-to-back road game of the season, and they will be playing an NC State team that is playing terrific defense right now.  Notre Dame has a tremendous offense, but they play a small-ball style that leaves them extremely vulnerable inside the paint.  The Wolfpack  have a strong interior presence, and Notre Dame will be up against it on both ends of the court.  Against a similarly built, but lesser team in Georgia Tech, the Irish only scored 62 points while escaping with a 3-point win.  NC State is bigger and much better than Georgia Tech, so this game does not project well for Notre Dame. 

NC State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 65-60 loss at a very good Miami, FL team.  The Wolfpack also lost their last home game, a close 81-79 loss to North Carolina.  NC State will come with a focused effort tonight, and we expect them to beat Notre Dame on their strong home court.  The Wolfpack are 12-3 at home where they are averaging 75.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field.  NC State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 30.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  NC State is in a good spot for a big win, so we’ll take the points with the Wolfpack in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play NC STATE (+).

Washington State plays at an extremely fast pace under new head coach Ernie Kent.  The Cougars are all offense and no defense, and they are completely lost when forced to play in a half court, slow-paced game.  The Cougars have been held to less than 70 points nine times this season.  Washington State is a terrible 1-8 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (69-66) over California.  The Cougars will be forced into a half-court grinder, and they are not built to win in low-scoring games.  Washington State will also have to deal with the thin air and altitude of Denver, and they are also on the dreaded back-to-back road game swing after playing in Utah on Wednesday night.  The Cougars’ offense has struggled on the road all season as they only average 63.1 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field.  Things won’t get any easier tonight against a stout Colorado defense that is holding opponents to just 59.3 points per game on their home court this season.               

Colorado is a completely different team than Washington State.  The Buffaloes play at an extremely slow pace while frustrating their opponents in the half court.  Washington State’s offense relies heavily on scoring points from beyond the arc.  But since they’ll wear down as this game goes on, we do not expect them to shoot a high percentage from 3-point land.  Colorado has a strong interior defense, and only allow 49% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range, so the majority of Washington State’s points will have to come from the perimeter.  Colorado has pace, scheduling, and matchup advantages in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday night.           

9* Play COLORADO (-).

USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame.  Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes.  The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost five of their last six games in conference play.  USC’s defense has allowed 75.8 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 65.6 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 26.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  USC’s offensive troubles will continue in this game against the stout Oregon State defense.

Oregon State is quietly having a very good season.  The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 51.9 points per game on 33.5% shooting from the field and 25.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”  Oregon State’s style will frustrate USC, so we’ll lay the points with the Beavers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OREGON STATE (-).

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 11-8 on the season, but the team is playing much better basketball right now.  UCLA was on a 3-game winning streak going into their last game at Oregon State, but we can easily forgive the Bruins for that loss.  We had a Best Bet on Oregon State over UCLA simply because the Beavers were going to grind UCLA in a slow-paced, half-court game.  That’s exactly what happened in UCLA’s 66-55 loss.  UCLA needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace today against Oregon.  The Bruins have a good offense that is averaging 72.4 points per game.  UCLA will score at will on a poor Oregon defense that has allowed 70 points or more in five of their last nine games.    

Oregon was in a tremendous spot for a blowout win in their last game against a terrible USC team.  The Ducks only won that game 75-67 as they shot just 36.2% (21-58) from the field and 32% (8-25) from three-point land.  Oregon was able to get by USC while shooting poorly, but that won’t be the case in this game against UCLA.  The Ducks are in poor current form as they are just 2-3 SU over their last five games with a negative 4.8 points per game scoring differential in those games.  Oregon’s defense has allowed 79.2 points per game on 47% shooting from the field over their last five games.  To compare, UCLA’s defense has allowed just 67.6 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field over their last five games.  UCLA has played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah.  They are getting a major class relief in this game today, so we’ll take the points with the better team on Saturday afternoon.         

9* Play UCLA (+).

Illinois comes into this game with a 13-7 record, but twelve of those wins have come at home or on a neutral court.  The Illini are just 1-4 SU in true road games with all four losses coming by 8 points or more.  Illinois has struggled to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 60.4 points per game on 37.4% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  Illinois is also ravaged by injuries right now with four key contributors out of action.  “There’s a lot of things happening that make things very, very fluid,” head coach John Groce said.  “Of course we’re playing lineups that are different from what we played prior. We don’t have that luxury right now.”  Illinois won their last game at home over Purdue despite shooting 35% (21-60) from the field and 30% (3-10) from three-point land.  They are not going to be competitive on the road while shooting that poorly, especially against a strong offensive opponent. 

Minnesota is a team we’ve played against twice over their last three games.  We won both of those games, but the Golden Gophers were in bad match-ups and pace scenarios for those two games.  The opposite is true now as Minnesota holds all the advantages in this game.  Both teams want to play fast, up-tempo basketball and that style suits Minnesota extremely well, especially at home.  The Golden Gophers are averaging 84.4 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Illinois’ poor offense will be unable to trade points with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers’ last two home losses have come against explosive and efficient offenses, and Illinois’ offense is anything but that as detailed above.  This is a good spot for Minnesota to get an easy blowout win, so we’ll lay the points in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play MINNESOTA (-).

USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame.  Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes.  The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost four of their last five games in conference play.  USC’s defense has allowed 76.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 66.6 points per game over their last five games.  USC is not in good current form, and they will be facing an opponent that will be primed for a big effort.    

Oregon returns home off back-to-back road losses.  The Ducks are 11-2 at home this season with eight of those wins coming by 10 points or more.  Oregon needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against USC.  The Ducks have a good offense that is averaging 77.2 points per game at home this season.  Oregon will score at will on a USC defense that is in poor current form; they’ve allowed 78 points or more in four of their last five games.  The Ducks also own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 49% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the arc.  USC has a weak 3-point shooting team (20% of their points scored), so they will be unable to score consistently in this game.  Oregon is simply the better team, and since they are in a good spot for a big win, we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play OREGON (-).

Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies are just 2-4 over their last six games.  Four of those games came on their home court, and they lost the two road games by 6 and 8 points.  Washington will now be forced into a half-court grinder, and the Huskies are not built to win in low-scoring games.  The Huskies will also have to deal with the thin air and altitude of Denver, further limiting their chances at playing at a fast pace.  The Huskies’ offense has struggled on the road all season as they only average 66 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land.  Things won’t get any easier tonight against a stout Colorado defense that is holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game on their home court this season.               

Colorado is a completely different team than Washington.  The Buffaloes play at an extremely slow pace while frustrating their opponents in the half court.  Washington’s offense relies heavily on scoring points inside the arc as 57% of the points they score come from 2-point range.  However, Colorado has a strong interior defense, and only allow 49% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Colorado’s offense scores 52% of their points from 2-point range, and they will have plenty of success tonight since Washington’s defense allows 57% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Colorado has the pace advantage and the matchup advantage in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Thursday night.           

9* Play COLORADO (-).