Purdue is a team that needs to play at a quick tempo in order to be at their best.  The Boilermakers like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Purdue’s offense struggles in the half court.  The Boilermakers will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points nine times this season.  The Boilermakers are just 4-5 SU in those games and 2-7 ATS based on today’s posted line.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points in seven road games.  They are just 3-4 SU and an ugly 1-6 ATS in those games.  The Boilermakers will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.       

Arkansas-Little Rock is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Purdue’s style.  The Trojans are 14-2 SU over their last sixteen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 29-4 on the season, including 15-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 38.7% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 53.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue hasn’t fared well in slow-paced games this season, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Thursday afternoon.                     

9* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 22-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 17-1 over their last 18 games, and to their credit, nine of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale has held 19 of their last 22 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.5 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 95.0 points per 100 possessions.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  

Baylor was more of an up-tempo offense in years past, but the Bears have slowed way down over the last two years.  But despite their slower style of play, Baylor still struggles mightily in the half court.  The Bears went just 3-7 SU when held to less than 70 points this season, and they are 0-10 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread.  Baylor’s three wins came by 2, 3, and 4 points which clearly indicates that the Bears cannot extend leads when playing an opponent that forces them into a half court game.  Baylor went just 7-6 on the road this season, and the Bears own a -1.5 point differential away from home.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Thursday afternoon.           

10* Play YALE (+).

Texas Tech and Butler are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make Butler 1.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  The oddsmakers opened this game at Butler -2.5, but the market thought that was low, so the current line is 2 points higher.  I agree with the opening line more than the betting markets on this game, and now we have a lot of value on the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech comes into this game with a 19-12 record, but half of their losses came by single digits.  The Red Raiders like to play at a slow pace while forcing teams into a half-court scrum.  Texas Tech plays solid defense as they hold their opponents to 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Red Raiders only allow 48.1% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Butler’s offense scores 51.9% of their points from inside the arc, so they’ll have to crack Texas Tech’s defensive strength to have success in this game.         

Butler played a much different style of basketball this season.  The Bulldogs played at an extremely slow tempo in years past, but they sped way up this season.  Butler is averaging 68.9 possessions per game, and because of the faster tempo, the Bulldogs’ defense has slipped.  They are allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions; that’s a far cry from the low 90’s they routinely put-up over the last few years.  Butler owns a minuscule +0.3 point differential away from home, and they went just 8-7 SU on the road.  Butler only won 3 away games by more than 6 points this season, so they’ve had a difficult time getting separation on the road.  Texas Tech hits 74.6% from the free throw line, and that strength keeps them in games against teams that are perceived to be better than they are.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Texas Tech on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Vanderbilt and Wichita State should not be playing tonight as both teams deserved much better from the NCAA selection committee.  The Commodores and Shockers are both quality teams that should have been seeded higher, and the fact they are playing each other is of no coincidence.  Vanderbilt and Wichita State are more than capable of beating the big name teams with high seeds, so it’s a shame one of these teams has to lose tonight.  Vanderbilt only had a 19-13 record on the season, but there’s no shame in that after playing my 44th ranked schedule in the country.  The Commodores crushed #3 seed Texas A&M by 17 points, and they beat #4 seed Kentucky by 12 points.  Vanderbilt only lost to the #1 overall seed Kansas by 7 points on a neutral court as well.  The Commodores can play basketball, and they are severely undervalued tonight as my power ratings only make them a 1-point underdog to Wichita State.

Wichita State is also a very good basketball team.  The Shockers come into tonight’s game with a 24-8 record, and they played a bunch of games early without one of their best players, Fred VanVleet.  Wichita State was overvalued by the oddsmakers down the stretch after posting a 12-game winning streak.  The Shockers went 7-3 SU, but just 5-5 ATS over their last ten games, and they come into tonight on a 3-game ATS slide.  As mentioned above, Wichita State is once again laying too many points in this game, especially against a Vanderbilt team that played a much tougher schedule.  The Shockers played my 104th rated schedule; the worst of any team seeded below the 12 line.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Vanderbilt plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Florida failed to make the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive year after going 19-14 this season.  The Gators’ best player, Dorian Finney-Smith, is a senior, so failing to make the Big Dance is a major disappointment for him, and that filters down to the rest of the team.  Florida is actually the #2 seed in the NIT, but because of renovations to their arena, they are forced to play this game on North Florida’s home court.  That is another disadvantage for the Gators in this game.  Florida may also play without starting center John Egbunu; he has a torn ligament in his right thumb and surgery appears imminent.  Florida head coach Mike White is also not sure about his team’s state of mind heading into this game: “The NIT is not the ultimate goal. We’re trying to improve a little bit for down the road. That’s the approach I hope our guys would take.”

North Florida went 22-11 this season, including an excellent 14-2 on their home court.  This is a rare opportunity for the Osprey to host a big name team on their home court.  And since the Gators are also an in-state opponent considered to be a ‘big brother’ to North Florida, the excitement of this game is over the top for the Osprey.  North Florida has a terrific offense that is averaging 87.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 40.3% from three-point land.  Their three-point shooting is of major concern for Florida head coach White: “It’s going to be a very difficult matchup for our bigs to have to defend in a way that they’ve rarely, rarely defended this season.”  North Florida has a lot of motivation for this game, and Florida does not, so we’ll take the Osprey plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NORTH FLORIDA (+).

Memphis and Connecticut will play for the third time this season.  The Huskies won the first two games; they beat Memphis 81-78 at home and they won by 20 points (77-57) in Memphis.  However, today’s game is much more meaningful, especially for Memphis.  The Tigers’ only hope to get into the NCAA tournament is by winning this game.  In their first two games of the conference tournament, Memphis has played exceptional basketball.  The Tigers have held their two opponents to just 67 and 54 points on a combined 37.7% (40-106) shooting from the field and 24.3% (9-37) shooting from three-point land.  Memphis’ offense scored 89 and 74 points in those games while being very aggressive; they totaled 52 free throw attempts in their two games.  Memphis also got complete team efforts in both wins as they had four guys score in double figures against Tulsa while five guys scored in double figures against Tulane.

Connecticut’s path to the conference championship game was much different.  The Huskies had to play much better competition; their wins came against Cincinnati and Temple.  However, the way they won those games sets them up in a big regression spot this afternoon.  Connecticut beat Cincinnati is a wild and crazy 4 overtime game on Friday afternoon.  The Huskies had two guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 43 minutes or more.  Connecticut had seven guys play 15 minutes or more overall, including two guys that hardly play at all.  Those extended minutes figured to have an impact on Connecticut’s game yesterday against Temple, but the Huskies played another bang-up game.  They shot 51.8% (29-56) from the field and 50% (7-14) from three-point land.  Two guys played 34 minutes or more with six guys playing 20 minutes or more.  The Huskies will regress in today’s game, so we’ll take Memphis plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

Utah and Oregon will play for the third time this season.  The Ducks won the first two meetings, but the Utes had legitimate excuses for their poor play in both of those games.  In the first meeting in Utah, the Utes were just returning home off a 3-game road trip.  That is a rare scheduling spot in college basketball, and Utah was simply unprepared to play; it was their lone home loss of the season.  In the second meeting in Oregon, the Utes were on the tail end of a grueling road trip: “We’ve been in a hotel room 18 nights out of 38 since we started league play,” Utah coach Larry Krystowiak said after that loss in Oregon.  “It hasn’t exactly been easy to play 7 out of 11 on the road. We’ve grown a little road weary.”  Despite the poor scheduling spot, Utah led for most of the first half before losing the game by 10 points.

Oregon survived a crazy game in overtime against Arizona last night.  The Ducks led by 15 points at the half, and by 4 points with just 12.8 seconds left.  Arizona had a chance to win the game at the free throw line with no time left on the clock, but after making one of two free throws, the game went to overtime.  Oregon went on to win 95-89, but that game took a lot of energy out of the Ducks.  Oregon had four guys play 37 minutes or more, and the team combined to shoot 47.8% (32-67) from the field and 52.6% (10-19) from three-point land.  We expect regression from Oregon tonight as they will be playing on tired legs.  Utah also won in overtime last night, but their game against California was less taxing as it was played at a slow pace with a lot of fouls called.  The game had little flow, and Utah’s offense shot just 43.1% (25-58) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Utah has plenty of motivation for this game, and since we expect better offensive production, we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (+).

Notre Dame comes into tonight’s game against North Carolina on a back-to-back set after beating Duke in overtime yesterday afternoon.  The Irish won that game 84-79 after coming back from a 16-point second half deficit.  Notre Dame plays an extremely short rotation, and they had three of their starters play 41 minutes or more while all five starters played 35 minutes or more.  The Irish only play a 6-man rotation, and the extended minutes last night will have a major impact on tonight’s game, especially since Notre Dame will be forced into a fast-paced game by North Carolina.  The Irish also shot 50% (30-60) from the field last night, so a repeat performance is highly unlikely simply because of the terrible situational and scheduling Notre Dame is in.  Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 75 points or more in three of their last four games, and tonight they will be playing on tired legs.

North Carolina cruised to an 88-71 win over Pittsburgh yesterday.  The Tar Heels had eight guys play 14 minutes or more, so they are a much deeper team than Notre Dame, and they will also be much fresher for tonight’s game.  North Carolina is also taking this game seriously after losing to the Irish earlier this season.  The Tar Heels blew a 15-point lead on Notre Dame’s home court in that game.  North Carolina also lost to Notre Dame in last year’s ACC tournament; the Tar Heels blew an 8-point lead with less than ten minutes to play in that game.  Those blown losses will have North Carolina primed for a peak performance tonight.  Overall, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 83.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field this season.  North Carolina is catching Notre Dame at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Friday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

UNLV comes into tonight’s game against Fresno State on a back-to-back set after beating Air Force in triple overtime last night.  The Rebels won that game 108-104 despite three walk-ons playing the majority of the third overtime.  UNLV had three guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 41 minutes or more.  The Rebels had seven guys play 17 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since UNLV is playing on back-to-back nights with a depleted roster.  The Rebels are without four key members of their team due to injuries and eligibility issues, and they survived last night with three players who have seen very limited court time this season.  UNLV is an extremely shorthanded team, and this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Rebels.

Fresno State has already beaten UNLV twice this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bulldogs and Rebels played in two close games, but UNLV played with a fully healthy roster in those games.  They still couldn’t beat Fresno State, and now with a depleted team, it’s highly unlikely UNLV will be able to beat the Bulldogs tonight.  Fresno State is on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 SU over their last nine games with their lone loss coming in overtime.  The Bulldogs are in excellent current form, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Fresno State has averaged 80.8 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Fresno State is catching UNLV at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

UCLA and USC will play for the third time this season.  The Trojans dominated the first two meetings, winning by 14 points at UCLA and by 19 points on their home court.  UCLA was simply overmatched in both of those games, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bruins come into this game with a 15-16 overall record, but 11 of their wins came on their home court.  UCLA is just 4-10 away from home with their average loss coming by 10.6 points per game.  UCLA’s defense is giving up 78.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the field.  The Bruins have lost four straight games, and they are just 4-9 over their last 13 games.  They lost their last two games of the regular season at home, and that’s a clear indication that UCLA has quit on the season.    

USC also went cold as the season wore down; the Trojans come into tonight’s game with a 1-4 record over their last five games.  However, two of those games were on the road while their two of their home games were against Utah and Oregon.  There’s no shame in losing to those teams, so we can dismiss USC’s recent results.  The Trojans are no lock for the NCAA tournament, and they know they need to have a good showing in the Pac 12 tournament to secure an at-large bid.  “I’m pretty sure if we win, that would solidify our run this year, and we’ll get a bid in the tournament,” Julian Jacobs said.  “But say we lose, I think we’ll end up having to play in a play-in game or something like that. We really just want to beat UCLA.”  USC has plenty of motivation for this game, and since they’ve crushed the Bruins twice already, we’ll back the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Purdue with a 20-10 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 4-game winning streak, and they are 11-1 over their last twelve games.  But eight of those opponents were bad teams.  Wisconsin is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Purdue as the Badgers will be playing a back-to-back road set for just the second time in conference play this season.  The Badgers lost 69-57 at Michigan State in their lone try in this situation.  This will also be Wisconsin’s fifth road game in their last seven games overall.  Wisconsin lost to Purdue at home earlier this season; the Boilermakers held the Badgers to just 38.6% (22-57) shooting from the field and 29.4% (5-17) shooting from three-point land.  That game was on Wisconsin’s strong home court, so it’s hard to imagine their offense being any better with the rematch being on the Boilermakers’ home court.

Purdue is 23-7 on the season, including a 16-1 mark at home where they own an excellent +18.5 point differential.  The Boilermakers play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 63.3 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is playing their final home game of the season, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they still have something to play for.  “We want to get a top-four seed, and we can control that by winning the game,” P.J. Thompson said.  “If we can get Wisconsin twice, I think that would be huge, with the win coming off Nebraska, and finishing out for the seniors.”  Purdue is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Pittsburgh is 20-9 on the season, but the Panthers have won 15 of those games on their home court.  Pittsburgh is just 3-5 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.6 points per game.  The Panthers began the season at 14-1, but they’ve gone just 6-8 over their last 14 games, including 2-5 on the road.  The majority of Pittsburgh’s wins have come against inferior competition like Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Boston College.  Pittsburgh’s offense is only averaging 64.4 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Their lack of offense has been a major reason why they haven’t won road games with consistency this season.

Georgia Tech returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 56-53 loss at Louisville.  That was an impressive showing considering the Cardinals were playing their final home game in a season they are banned from post-season play.  The Yellow Jackets will now play their final home game of the season, and with four senior starters, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  The Yellow Jackets are averaging 76.6 points per game at home, and they scored 84 points at Pittsburgh earlier this season.  Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to 69.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll back the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (-).

West Virginia is a good team, and the Mountaineers come into today’s game at Baylor with a solid 23-7 record.  West Virginia is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State.  All four of those teams are poor, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  West Virginia has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 7 points at Texas, 10 points at Kansas, and by 17 points at Florida.  Overall, West Virginia’s defense is giving up 75.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-71 loss at Oklahoma.  The Bears have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Baylor will be playing their final home game of the season, and they have three seniors starters to honor.  The Bears are 15-4 at home where they are averaging 79.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

California has won seven consecutive games as they come into tonight’s game at Arizona with a 21-8 record.  However, five of their last seven games came on their home court where they are a perfect 18-0 on the season.  California is just 3-6 in true road games this season, and this game will be their stiffest road challenge of the season.  The Golden Bears beat Arizona 74-73 at home earlier this season, but California was extremely fortunate to win that game.  The Wildcats were missing one of their better players, Alonzo Trier, in that game.  Despite that, Arizona out-shot California 50.9%-45% from the field and 44.4%-36.4% from three-point land.  California will now face Arizona on the road where their defense is allowing 70.8 points per game on 37.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  

Arizona returns home off back-to-back road losses at Colorado and at Utah.  That back-to-back road trip is the toughest in the Pac 12, so those losses can be excused.  Arizona owns one of the strongest home courts in all of college basketball.  The Wildcats are 15-1 at home where they own an incredible +20.4 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 85 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 64.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Connecticut is once again having a good season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-9 record.  However, the Huskies have lost two of their last three games, and they are just 3-3 over their last six games.  Connecticut is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Huskies will be playing their third road game over their last four games, and this will also be their third game in the last eight days.  Connecticut’s offense has struggled away from home all season; the Huskies are only averaging 67.7 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field.  In their earlier defeat of SMU, the Huskies only scored 68 points on the Mustangs’ defense, and that game was on Connecticut’s home court.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 24-4 record.  The Mustangs are 15-1 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 61.9 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 79.6 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, and this is will be the final home game for their two best players who are both seniors.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, so we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Cincinnati is a good team, and the Bearcats come into tonight’s game at Houston with a solid 21-8 record.  Cincinnati is just 6-5 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, and Bowling Green.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Cincinnati has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 10 points at Xavier, 4 points at Memphis, and by 2 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Bearcats scored 65 points or less.  Overall, Cincinnati’s offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Houston is having an excellent season, but the Cougars are flying under the radar.  Houston comes into this game with a 21-8 record, including a 14-3 mark at home.  They’ve played three of their last four games on the road, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston’s offense is averaging 80.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field at home.  The Cougars’ defense is holding opponents to just 67.1 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big effort by Houston here, so we’ll back the Cougars in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play HOUSTON (+).

Georgia comes into tonight’s game at South Carolina with a 15-12 record, but 13 of those wins have come on their home court.  Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Georgia is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three competitive games; they won at Mississippi State as 4-point underdogs, they lost by 4 points at home to Florida, and they lost at Auburn by 3 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat Mississippi 80-68 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 75 points per game.

South Carolina returns home off a 10-point road loss at Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.  Tonight will be the final home game for three starting seniors, so we expect a peak performance from South Carolina in this game.  The Gamecocks are 15-1 at home where they own a solid +11.8 point differential on the season.  South Carolina’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 80.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks lost at Georgia earlier this season, but South Carolina only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land in that game.  The Gamecocks’ offense will play much better tonight, so we’ll lay the points with South Carolina in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

Memphis is just 16-13 on the season, and 14 of their wins have come on their home court, including their 92-82 win over Tulsa on Sunday afternoon.  We won a Best Bet selection on Memphis in that game, but we’re going to play against them tonight.  The Tigers are just 1-7 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by 9 points per game.  Prior to their last win, Memphis was just 3-8 over their previous eleven games, including 1-5 on the road.  The Tigers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  Memphis is giving up 85.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Memphis did beat Temple at home earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (65-63) despite owning a +18 point edge from the free throw line and a +21 edge in free throw attempts.

Temple is 18-10 on the season, including a 10-3 record at home.  The Owls are a veteran team that starts three seniors.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance, especially since they blew a win at Memphis earlier this season.  Temple led that game by 11 points in the second half before losing the game late.  Temple’s defense has been solid at home where they are only allowing 67.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  Temple is in a terrific spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Owls in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TEMPLE (-).

Mississippi State comes into tonight’s game at in-state rival Mississippi with a losing 13-15 record; 9 of their wins have come on their home court.  Mississippi State is 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 9.4 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Mississippi State is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three consecutive close games; they beat Vanderbilt by 1 point, they won at Alabama by 6 points, and they lost at Texas A&M by 2 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat South Carolina 68-58 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 76.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from the field. 

Mississippi returns home off a blowout road loss at Georgia on Saturday.  We won a Best Bet selection against the Rebels in that game, so their loss was expected, and it can be easily dismissed.  Mississippi has played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight being the last home game for three starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  The Rebels are 11-2 at home on the season.  Mississippi’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 79.9 points per game.  The Rebels lost at Mississippi State earlier this season, but they only lost that game by 6 points despite the Bulldogs shooting 51.9% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 88.2% from the free throw line.  Mississippi is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

Indiana is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa with a 23-6 record.  However, 16 of those wins have come on their home court, and they are just 5-4 in true road games this season.  Indiana will be playing back-to-back road games, and this will also be their sixth road game over their last ten games.  This is a poor scheduling and situational spot for Indiana, especially since the Hoosiers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  The Hoosiers are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Indiana did beat Iowa at home earlier this season, but the Hawkeyes’ offense scored 78 points on 46% (29-63) shooting from the field and 38.9% (7-18) shooting from three-point land in that game.  

Iowa was having an excellent season, but they’ve been struggling as of late.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 over their last five games, including three straight losses coming into tonight.  But this is a fantastic bounce back spot for Iowa, especially since they also lost their previous home game.  Iowa is a veteran team that starts four seniors who have won 87 games as a group.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance.  Iowa is 13-1 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential on the season.  Iowa’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play IOWA (-).

Virginia hits the road after beating North Carolina 79-74 on Saturday night.  We cashed a Best Bet selection on the Cavaliers in that game, but tonight we’re going to play against them.  That was a big win for Virginia, and we expect the Cavaliers to suffer a letdown tonight, especially since they are playing on the road in a quick turnaround situation.  Virginia is just 4-6 in true road games this season; they’ve lost their last two conference road games.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but so does Clemson, and that negates Virginia’s style of play advantage.  The Cavaliers are also going from a North Carolina team that plays at an ultra-fast tempo to a Clemson team that plays at the opposite pace.  That type of dramatic stylistic change often hampers offensive production, so Virginia will have a difficult time winning this game by margin tonight. 

Clemson is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 16-12 record.  However, they are off back-to-back road losses at NC State and at Georgia Tech.  The Tigers return home where they are 13-3 on the season, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game, especially since this will be their last home game for two seniors.  Clemson owns a solid +12.8 point differential at home.  The Tigers’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 57.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Clemson here, so we’ll take the Tigers plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Tulsa is a good team, and the Golden Hurricane come into today’s game at Memphis with a solid 19-9 record.  Tulsa is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Missouri State, East Carolina, Tulane, and Central Florida.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Tulsa has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 19 points at Cincinnati, 15 points at Houston, and by 4 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Golden Hurricane gave up 80 points per game.  Overall, Tulsa’s defense is allowing 71.2 points per game on the road this season.  Tulsa will be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and with the final home game for seven seniors on deck, this game is one they can easily be overlooking.      

Memphis is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 15-13 record.  However, they are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 69-62 home loss to SMU.  There’s no shame in losing to the Mustangs, and off that loss, we expect a peak performance this afternoon, especially since this will be the last home game for two starting seniors who average a combined 26.6 points per game.  Memphis is 13-6 at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Memphis here, so we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

North Carolina comes into this game with a 23-5 record, but 18 of those wins have come either on their home court or on a neutral court.  The Tar Heels are just 5-4 in true road games this season, and two of those losses have come against teams that play exactly the same way as tonight’s opponent.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Virginia.  The Tar Heels are 2-2 this season when held to less than 70 points; their wins came against bad teams like NC State and Boston College while the losses came at Louisville and at Northern Iowa.  The posted total is currently 137.5, so the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a North Carolina game this season; their previous low was 144.5 in a game they scored just 68 points against Boston College.

Virginia returns home off a 64-61 loss at Miami, Fla on Monday night.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 13-0 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential on the season.  Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Virginia is 2-1 against North Carolina in the last three meetings, and that’s because the Tar Heels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.  Virginia’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into today’s game at Texas with a 22-5 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but this game against the Longhorns is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their seventh road game over their last twelve games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 6-4 in true road games this season; they survived by 2 points at LSU and at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 77.6 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Texas is having a fantastic season considering they are in the first year of head coach Shaka Smart’s system, and without their best player because of injury.  Texas comes into this game with an 18-10 record, including a 13-2 mark at home where they own a terrific +9.9 point differential on the season.  Texas’ defense has been phenomenal at home where they are allowing just 65.3 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  Texas only lost by 3 points (63-60) at Oklahoma earlier this month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  The Longhorns actually led that game for all but 49 seconds which is quite impressive considering Oklahoma is 13-1 on their home court this season.  With Texas off a loss in their previous home game, we expect a peak performance here, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Mississippi has a decent 18-10 record on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rebels are just 6-6 in true road games this season with four of those wins coming against inferior out-of-conference opponents.  Mississippi is just 2-5 on the road in conference play, and those wins came against Missouri and Auburn who are the two worst teams in the SEC.  The Rebels’ five losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game.  Overall, Mississippi has played the #80th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against weak opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #48th rated schedule this season.  Mississippi’s defense is giving up 72.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at Vanderbilt and at Auburn.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game to Florida, so off their recent losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 12-4 on their home court this season.  Georgia only lost by 1 point (72-71) at Mississippi last month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead and a 71-67 lead with 57 seconds left to play.  Georgia’s defense has been outstanding at home all season.  The Bulldogs are only giving up 64.4 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Georgia is in a terrific bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

College of Charleston comes into tonight’s game with a 16-11 record.  That record is quite surprising considering the lack of talent the Cougars have.  Head coach Earl Grant was forced to install an extremely slow-paced style of play because of his roster, and that has worked for the team.  Grant starts one player, Payton Hulsey, strictly as a defensive stopper; Hulsey rarely shoots the ball on offense.  College of Charleston beat Northeastern 68-61 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed overtime to win that game after rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit.  Charleston is also in a poor scheduling spot for this game after losing their last home game in overtime to conference leader NC-Wilmington.  The Cougars will play with a hangover off that loss, and a lack of focus usually comes on the defensive end in this type of situation.  

Northeastern returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 65-60 loss at Hofstra.  The Huskies have played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight’s game being the last home game for four starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  Northeastern’s four seniors have combined for 83 wins, two CAA regular season titles, a CAA tournament title, and an NCAA tournament appearance for the first time in 24 years.  The Huskies are a veteran group that is used to winning, so tonight’s final home game will bring out their best effort.  The Huskies are averaging 74.3 points per game at home, so we expect a strong offensive performance by Northeastern tonight.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play NORTHEASTERN (-).

Southern Illinois has been a surprise this season; the Salukis come into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a a 21-8 record.  Southern Illinois has posted their first winning season since 2008, and their first 20-plus win season in nine years.  The Salukis will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be just the second time in conference play this season.  The last time they were in this situation, Southern Illinois played poorly in the second road game as they lost by 21 points after shooting just 30.6% (19-62) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Salukis beat Illinois State 81-78 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed to rally from a 6-point halftime deficit to win that game.  Southern Illinois gave up 78 points to the Redbirds on their home court, and they’ll be hard-pressed to slow Illinois State down in tonight’s game, especially since the Salukis have allowed 70.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games. 

Illinois State returns home off a 75-66 loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday afternoon.  That game can be easily dismissed as Northern Iowa was playing with revenge after losing 76-67 to Illinois State earlier this season.  The Redbirds are now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially with this being the last home game for three starting seniors.  Illinois State is 12-3 at home where they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a peak performance by Illinois State here, so we’ll lay the points with the Redbirds in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ILLINOIS STATE (-).

Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game at Florida with a 16-11 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Commodores are just 2-8 in true road games this season, and tonight’s game will be an extremely difficult challenge.  Vanderbilt is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Commodores play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Vanderbilt’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Commodores will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Florida.  Vanderbilt is 0-7 on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 9.1 points per game.  Vanderbilt did beat Florida 60-59 at home earlier this season, but that was on their home court and it was their only win of the season when held to less than 70 points.

Florida returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-69 overtime loss at South Carolina.  The Gators also lost their previous home game, so we expect a supreme effort tonight.  Florida is 12-2 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential.  Florida plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Gators play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Florida’s style will frustrate Vanderbilt, so we’ll lay the points with the Gators in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

Michigan comes into today’s game at Maryland with a 19-8 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  Michigan is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses all coming by 10 points or more with their average loss coming by 15.5 points per game.  The Wolverines have not been a competitive bunch in their away games, and we expect that to be the case once again this afternoon.  Michigan’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Wolverines are giving up 74.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field.  Michigan’s defense has been even worse lately as they’ve allowed 75 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Wolverines will face a Maryland offense that is averaging 77.4 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Maryland returns home off a poor 68-63 road loss at Minnesota on Thursday night.  The Terrapins also lost their previous game 70-57 at home to Wisconsin.  Maryland played two of their worst offensive games of the season as they combined to shoot just 38.7% (41-106) from the field, 36.4% (12-33) from three-point land, and 63.4% (26-41) from the free throw line.  Off those two poor performances and back at home where they recently lost, we expect a peak effort in this game.  The Terrapins are 14-1 at home where they own an a terrific +15 point differential on the season.  Maryland’s defense has been good at home while holding opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 27.4% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Terrapins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MARYLAND (-).

St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Gonzaga with a 21-4 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gaels have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted Gonzaga a month ago.  St. Mary’s only won that game by 3 points, but they actually trailed by 8 points at the half, and they trailed by 3 points with four minutes to play.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where St. Mary’s was +11 points (14-3) and +11 attempts (16-5).  Gonzaga actually out-shot the Gaels 59.2%-50% from the field and 40%-37.5% from three-point land.  St. Mary’s will now play the rematch on the road where they are just 5-3 this season.  The Gaels’ offense is only averaging 67.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land.

Gonzaga will play their second consecutive home game after playing four straight games on the road.  The Zags come in off a 90-68 blowout win over Pacific on Thursday night.  Gonzaga is 11-3 at home where they own an excellent +19.2 point differential on the season.  The Zags’ defense has been terrific at home as they are holding opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 23.6% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga’s offense has been incredible at home where they are averaging 82.1 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga is in a fantastic revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GONZAGA (-).

Nevada has been a surprise this season; the Wolfpack come into tonight’s game at UNLV with a a 16-9 record.  But they’ve played much better basketball at home.  Nevada is just 5-7 in true road games where they’ve allowed 76.4 points per game.  The Wolfpack will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be the second time this season in which they come in off a previous road win.  The last time they were in this situation, Nevada played poorly in the second road game.  They lost by 9 points at Colorado State after shooting just 38.7% (24-62) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  The Wolfpack beat UNLV 65-63 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  UNLV led that game by 9 points with 10 minutes left to play, so they were in control of that game on Nevada’s home court.

UNLV returns home off a 79-74 loss at Air Force on Tuesday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Air Force was hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 100-64 by UNLV earlier in the season.  UNLV is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Rebels are averaging 78.2 points per game at home this season, and they will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Nevada defense.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 68.7 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).

Texas Tech has been a major surprise this season as the Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma State with a 16-9 record.  Texas Tech is on a 3-game winning streak, but those three wins set the team up in an awful spot for tonight’s game.  The Red Raiders are in a terrible situational spot because they come in off three consecutive SU wins as underdogs with their last being a 65-63 home win over Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma State 63-61 in overtime on their home court earlier this season.  Texas Tech actually trailed that game by 7 points with six minutes left to play before rallying back and winning in overtime.  Texas Tech’s defense is giving up 75.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oklahoma State returns home off a 27-point blowout loss at Kansas on Monday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Kansas was focused on revenge after getting embarrassed 86-67 by Oklahoma State earlier in the season.  Oklahoma State is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Cowboys play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.1 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State’s offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 70.6 points per game.  Oklahoma State is catching Texas Tech at the perfect time, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

California comes into tonight’s game at Washington with a 17-8 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Golden Bears are just 1-6 in true road games this season, including 0-5 in conference road games.  California’s defense is allowing 71.4 points per game on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against Washington who prefers to play a fast, up-tempo style of basketball.  California will not keep Washington’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Huskies’ home court.

Washington is just 2-4 over their last six games, but four of those games came on the road.  The Huskies return home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Washington is averaging 88.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Huskies will get their preferred fast pace against a poor California defense, so we expect a strong offensive performance in tonight’s game.  Washington’s defense is only allowing 40.3% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big performance by Washington here, so we’ll back the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Michigan State with a 16-9 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 7-game winning streak, but five of those opponents were bad teams.  The Badgers are in a terrible situational spot for tonight’s game as they come in off a 70-57 win at Maryland as 8.5-point underdogs on Saturday night.  Wisconsin shot 46.2% (12-26) from three-point land, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll repeat that performance in this game.  The Badgers beat Michigan State 77-76 earlier this season, but the difference in that game was Wisconsin being +17 points at the free throw line and +20 attempts.  Despite those big edges, the Badgers trailed by 4 points with less than a minute to play before getting a fortunate 1-point win on their home court.

Michigan State is 21-5 on the season, including an 11-2 mark at home where they own an excellent +20.1 point differential.  The Spartans play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 57.8 points per game on 35% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 77.9 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is playing with legitimate revenge, so they will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Maryland in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

NC Wilmington comes into tonight’s game at William & Mary with a 20-5 record.  The Seahawks have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted William & Mary last month.  NC Wilmington needed overtime to beat the Tribe 97-94; William & Mary played that game without their second leading scorer, Daniel Dixon, who averages 13.5 points per game.  NC Wilmington shot 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land in that game, and they only won by 3 points in overtime on their home court.  That’s not a good sign for the rematch tonight, especially since the Seahawks have to play this game on the road where their defense is giving up 74.2 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.

William & Mary returns home off a 99-82 blowout loss at Towson on Saturday afternoon.  The Tribe also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  William & Mary is 11-2 at home where they own a solid +9.1 point differential on the season.  The Tribe’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 40.5% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 78.1 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Tribe in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Colorado comes into tonight’s game at USC with a 19-7 record, but 14 of those wins have come on their home court.  Colorado is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses coming by an average of 12.5 points per game.  Three of their four losses have come by double digits, so the Buffaloes have not been a competitive bunch in their away games.  Colorado is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Buffaloes come in off three consecutive close games; they lost by 4 points to Oregon State, they beat Washington State in overtime, and they beat Washington by a single point.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 74.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field. 

USC returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona State and at Arizona.  The Trojans are a perfect 14-0 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential on the season.  USC’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.3% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans’ offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 87.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  USC is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Syracuse is 8-1 over their last nine games, but the Orange have played an extremely easy schedule over that span.  Syracuse’s wins have come against the likes of Wake Forest twice, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  They were supposed to win those games because they are superior to those opponents.  However, the Orange only beat Georgia Tech by 3 points, and they needed overtime to beat Virginia Tech.  Both of those games came on their home court, so the close results are unimpressive.  Syracuse will now play a back-to-back road set while taking a monumental step-up in class.  The Orange offense has struggled away from home all season; Syracuse is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 38.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Louisville returns home off back-to-back road losses at Duke and at Notre Dame.  The Cardinals were competitive in both of those defeats as they only lost by 7 and 5 points.  Off those losses, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since Louisville is 15-1 at home where they own an exceptional +25.8 point differential on the season.  The Cardinals’ defense has been excellent at home as they are holding opponents to just 55.1 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field and 26.6% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 80.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Mississippi is 3-1 over their last four games, but they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Texas A&M.  The Rebels come in off five consecutive big games with their last culminating in a 76-60 home win over Arkansas.  Prior to that game, Mississippi played three of four games on the road.  The Rebels lost by 5 points at Kansas State, won by 3 points at Missouri, and lost by 5 points at Florida.  Mississippi beat Vanderbilt as 2.5-point home underdogs in between those road games.  Now the Rebels must go back on the road and play their fourth road game over their last six games.  Mississippi’s defense has been poor on the road all season as they are giving up 73.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.

Texas A&M returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Alabama.  The Aggies have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Texas A&M is 13-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.1 point differential on the season.  The Aggies’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 63.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Aggies in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TEXAS A&M (-).

Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay will play for the second time this season.  In the first meeting, the Panthers won 95-94 on their home court.  The difference in that game was Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s edge at the free throw line where they were +12 points (23-11) and +15 attempts (33-18).  The Panthers won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Wisconsin-Green Bay’s strong home court.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee is also in a tough scheduling spot for tonight’s game as they will be playing their fifth consecutive road game over a 12-day span.  The Panthers have gone just 1-3 over their last four games with their defense allowing 75, 80, and 84 points in those games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay finally returns home after playing a grueling 5-game road trip over a two-week span.  In fact, the Phoenix have played ten of their last twelve games away from home.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-2 on their home court this season where their offense has been incredible.  The Phoenix are averaging 85.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin-Green Bay will be facing a Wisconsin-Milwaukee defense that is in terrible current form.  The Panthers’ defense has allowed 83.6 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field and 43.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a good spot for Wisconsin-Green Bay to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with Phoenix in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (-).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into tonight’s game at Arizona with an 18-6 record, including a 7-4 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a revenge-minded Arizona team will be an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for the fifth time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their four previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ, Washington, and Oregon State.  The Trojans have lost their last three road games by an average of 10 points per game, and Arizona is a better team than all three of the opponents they played.  USC’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on the road this season.  

Arizona is on a 4-game winning streak after going just 3-4 over their previous seven games.  One of those losses came at USC when the Trojans won 103-101 in overtime.  That was a terrible spot for the Wildcats as they were playing their third straight road game while coming off a close loss at UCLA.  Despite the poor spot, Arizona only lost by 2 points on USC’s home court.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where USC was +15 points (26-11) and +17 attempts (33-16).  The Trojans won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Arizona’s strong home court.  The Wildcats are 13-1 at home where they own an incredible +20 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 83.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Colorado State comes into tonight’s game at UNLV with a 14-10 record, but ten of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rams are 3-4 in true road games this season, but they’ve been fortunate while facing teams that play their style of basketball.  Colorado State’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against UNLV.  Colorado State beat UNLV 66-65 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  The Rams will not keep UNLV’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Rebels’ home court.

UNLV snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 64-61 home win over San Jose State on Wednesday night.  The Rebels won that game despite facing a slow pace and terrible shooting.  UNLV hit just 29.4% (20-68) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Rebels’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially at home.  UNLV is averaging 77.5 points per game at home this season.  The Rebels will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Colorado State defense, so we expect a much better offensive performance in tonight’s game.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 67.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Mustangs will be their toughest game since playing Arizona way back in early December.  Gonzaga is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Zags are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their West Coast schedule against a very good team that is looking to avenge their 16-point loss at Gonzaga last season.  The Zags are also playing their fourth consecutive road game, and they are doing so over a 10-day span.  Gonzaga is also playing their sixth road game over their last eight games overall, and with tonight’s result being inconsequential to their season, it’s hard to imagine the Zags being at their best for this game.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 20-3 record.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.6 point differential.  SMU lost their last home game 82-77 to Tulsa on Wednesday night.  That was the Mustangs’ worst defensive home performance of the season, and their second worst overall.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.3 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, so this is like a tournament game for them.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Gonzaga in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Texas has been a major surprise this season as the Longhorns come into tonight’s game at Iowa State with a 16-8 record.  The most surprising part of their record is the fact that Texas has been without their best player, Cameron Ridley, since mid-December with a foot injury.  The Longhorns were supposed to be in a rebuilding season under new head coach Shaka Smart, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Texas is 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Longhorns come in off a last second 63-60 loss at Oklahoma on Monday night after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  Now they must play back-to-back conference road games for just the second time this season; they lost 76-67 the last time they were in this situation.  Texas needed overtime on their home court to beat Iowa State 94-91 earlier this season despite shooting 48.6% (36-74) from the field and being +21 points from three-point land. 

Iowa State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 85-82 overtime loss at Texas Tech.  The Cyclones have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Iowa State is 10-2 at home where they own an excellent +12.7 point differential on the season.  The Cyclones’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 85.8 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Oregon is one of the hottest teams in college basketball as the Ducks are 13-2 over their last 15 games.  Overall, Oregon comes into tonight’s game at California with a 20-4 record on the season, but fifteen of those wins have come on their home court.  Oregon is just 3-3 in true road games, and they only own a +4.0 point differential away from home this season.  Oregon’s defense has been poor on the road, and they’ve allowed 70 points or more in four of their five conference away games.  Overall, the Ducks are giving up 73.8 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon beat California by just 3 points (68-65) earlier this season, but the Ducks hit 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land while the Golden Bears missed all 12 of their 3-point attempts.  Oregon was +21 points from beyond the arc, but they only won the game by 3 points on their home court.    

California is a perfect 14-0 at home this season.  The Golden Bears own a +15.8 point differential on their home court this season.  California’s offense is averaging 77.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Golden Bears’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  California held Oregon to their lowest scoring output (68 points) in their last ten games; the Ducks shot just 40.7% (24-59) from the field on their home court.  This is a much bigger game for California, so we’ll back the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CALIFORNIA (pick).

Missouri State comes into this game with a 10-14 record, but the majority of the Bears’ wins have come against mediocre competition.  Missouri State’s last two road games have been awful; they lost those games by a combined 28 points.  The Bears shot just 34.1% (43-126) from the field in those games, including 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Missouri State’s offense has struggled away from home all season long.  The Bears are only averaging 61.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from the field.  Missouri State’s offensive struggles will continue tonight, especially since Northern Iowa’s defense is in excellent current form.     

Northern Iowa returns home off a dominating 16-point road win at Drake on Saturday.  That was the Panthers’ fourth consecutive win after losing their previous four games.  Northern Iowa’s recent uptick has head coach Ben Jacobsen feeling good about his team: “Guys are playing with some confidence again. We’ve just got a little different bounce in our step on offense, and we’ve got a different determination to us defensively. Right now, this is as close as we’ve been to having the entire group playing at a high level.”  Northern Iowa’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are only giving up 60.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers on Wednesday night.   

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Arkansas comes into tonight’s game at Mississippi State with just a 12-11 record.  The Razorbacks have won eleven of those games on their home court; they are just 1-6 in true road games this season.  Arkansas is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off five consecutive big games.  The Razorbacks lost by 3 points in overtime at Georgia, and then they beat Texas A&M by 3 points at home.  After that, Arkansas beat Texas Tech at home in overtime, and then they lost by 4 points at Florida.  But everything came together in their last game which resulted in an 85-67 home win over Tennessee after shooting 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Now they must hit the road where they’ve struggled all season, especially on defense.  The Razorbacks are giving up 80.7 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land away from home this season.

Mississippi State returns home off a road loss at LSU on Saturday.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game in overtime, so we expect a strong performance here.  Mississippi State has played three of their last four games on the road, and six of their last nine games on the road.  A welcomed home game is much needed for the Bulldogs, and there’s a lot of motivation after losing 82-68 at Arkansas earlier this season.  In that game, the Razorbacks shot the lights out as they hit 50% (28-56) from the field and 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land.  That performance will not be repeated in this game as Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 69.5 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Mississippi State in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

Notre Dame is 16-7 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Irish come into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 80-76 win over North Carolina as 2.5-point home underdogs on Saturday.  Notre Dame shot the ball terribly in that game as they only hit 34.8% (23-66) from the field and 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  The Irish won that game at the free throw line where they were +15 points (31-16) on +17 attempts (38-21).  Notre Dame only won that game because of a favorable whistle, but with tonight’s game on the road, the Irish cannot rely on the power of their home court.  Notre Dame is just 3-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.7 points per game.  When held to less than 70 points on the road, Notre Dame is just 1-3 with their losses coming by 2 points at Monmouth, 11 points at Virginia, and 15 points at Syracuse.    

Clemson returns home off three consecutive road games where they went just 1-2.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games on the road; their last home game came back on January 27th.  Overall, Clemson is 11-2 at home where they own a +14.2 point differential this season.  The Tigers’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 56.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 76.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  With Notre Dame off their big win and facing the slow, half-court style of Clemson, this is a poor situational spot for the Irish.  We’ll lay the points with Clemson in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLEMSON (-).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Pepperdine with an 18-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Waves will be a huge challenge for Gonzaga.  The Zags will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game over their last six games overall.  Aside from their 29-point waxing of a terrible Loyola Marymount team on Thursday night, Gonzaga’s road games have been close.  The Zags won by 2 points at Santa Clara, they needed overtime to win at San Francisco, they lost at St. Mary’s, and they only won by 10 points at a poor Pacific team.  Overall, Gonzaga’s defense is giving up 70.8 points per game on the road this season.

Pepperdine comes into this game with a 14-9 record, including a terrific 9-1 record on their home court.  The Waves are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 73-70 home loss to Portland on Thursday night.  Pepperdine’s offense was awful in that game as they only shot 37.3% (25-67) from the field, 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land, and 45.9% (17-37) from three-point land.  That was their worst offensive performance at home this season.  Overall, Pepperdine’s offense is averaging 73.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home.  The Waves’ defense is only allowing 66.4 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 27.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Pepperdine here, so we’ll take the Waves plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play PEPPERDINE (+).

Florida has been a surprise this season as they come into today’s game at Kentucky with a 15-7 record.  The Gators weren’t expected to be much after losing a lot of talent and head coach Billy Donovan to the NBA.  They’ve caught many opponents off guard, but after their last few games, Florida has come out from under the radar.  Florida is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off three consecutive big games.  The Gators lost by a single point at Vanderbilt as 4.5-point underdogs, then they waxed West Virginia by 17 points as 1-point home underdogs, and then they beat Arkansas at home by 4 points as 7.5-point favorites.  Now they must hit the road where they are just 2-5 in true road games this season.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 63.1 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Kentucky returns home off back-to-back road losses at Kansas and at Tennessee.  The Wildcats lost to the Jayhawks in overtime, and they blew a 21-point lead against the Volunteers.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Kentucky is a perfect 12-0 on their home court where they own an incredible +17.4 point differential.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 80.2 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Wildcats’ defense is only giving up 62.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Kentucky is in a prime spot for a big blowout win, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Utah was mired in a 1-3 slump going into their earlier home meeting against Oregon State.  The Utes won that game 59-53 and they haven’t lost since, going a perfect 5-0 over their last five games.  Utah needed a big comeback in that game as they trailed Oregon State by 14 points on their home court.  The game was also tied at 52 apiece with just three minutes left to play before Utah ended the game on a 7-1 scoring run.  Utah will now face Oregon State on the road where they are just 3-3 in true road games this season with one win coming by 5 points in overtime and another win coming by just 2 points.  Utah’s offense is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oregon State returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona and at Arizona State.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Oregon State is 8-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 6 points apiece.  Oregon State’s offense is averaging 75.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Beavers’ defense is only giving up 68.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Oregon State in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Maryland is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Nebraska with a 19-3 record.  The Terrapins have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cornhuskers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Maryland.  The Terrapins will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their third road game over their last four games overall.  Maryland hasn’t been as dominant in true road games either where they are just 3-3 this season; they won by 5 points at Oklahoma State, and they only won by 3 points at Wisconsin.  Overall, the Terrapins’ defense is giving up 68.8 points per game on the road this season.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 12-10 record.  The Cornhuskers have played three of their last four games on the road with their last being a loss at Purdue.  Nebraska also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game, especially since they gave Maryland fits in both games last season.  Maryland only beat Nebraska by 4 points on their home court, and by just 3 points on Nebraska’s home court.  The Cornhuskers’ offense is averaging 75.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Nebraska’s defense is only allowing 65.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Nebraska here, so we’ll take the Cornhuskers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

South Carolina has an impressive 19-2 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gamecocks are just 3-2 in true road games this season with one win coming by 6 points and another win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, South Carolina has played the #116th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #41st rated schedule this season.  South Carolina’s defense is giving up 70.6 points per game on 38.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  In their last three road games, the Gamecocks have allowed 73 points or more while going 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime.  

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Baylor.  The Bulldogs were competitive in both games as they only lost by 4 points to the Tigers and by 10 points to the Bears.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 10-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 2 points apiece.  Georgia’s offense is averaging 71.7 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is only giving up 66.4 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Georgia in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play GEORGIA (+).

San Diego State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now.  The Aztecs have won 8 consecutive games, including four games on the road.  San Diego State plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Aztecs play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  San Diego State is 6-0 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and that’s because the Rebels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice six games ago, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  Since Simon took over, the Rebels have gone 5-1 with their lone loss being a 65-63 defeat at Nevada.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against San Diego State.  The Rebels are 0-6 this season when held to less than 70 points, and with the posted total currently at 129, the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a UNLV game this season; their previous low was 134.5 in a game they lost outright after scoring just 57 points.  San Diego State’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the points with the Aztecs in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at LSU with a 17-2 SU record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their Big 12 schedule against a good team that needs a signature win to build their resume for March.  Oklahoma will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their fifth road game over their last eight games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 4-2 SU this season; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 82.3 points per game on the road this season.

LSU is having a decent season as they come into this game with a 13-7 SU record overall, however they are 9-4 SU the past 13 games with shooting guard Keith Hornsby (13.2 ppg, 50% FG) back in the lineup.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +12.9 point differential on the season.  LSU’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 86.4 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.  LSU really needs a big win over a highly ranked opponent to boost their credentials for the NCAA tournament, and this game against Oklahoma provides the Tigers with a tremendous opportunity to get a signature win.  This non-conference game is much more important for LSU than Oklahoma.  Look for a peak performance by the Tigers in this home game today.

9* Play LSU (+).

Washington surprised us on Thursday night when they won 87-85 at UCLA.  But we have no hesitation in playing against the Huskies once again in today’s game at USC.  Washington’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season, and it’s a fluke that they have a 3-1 record in true road games.  The Huskies are giving up 90.8 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat USC 87-85 at home earlier this season, but the Huskies got extremely lucky to win that game.  The Trojans led by 22 points in the second half before Washington made a furious rally to win.  USC out-shot the Huskies 47%-33.3% from the field and 47.1%-36% from three-point land, and that game was on Washington’s home court.  

USC snapped their 2-game losing streak with an 81-71 win over Washington State in their last home game.  Their previous two losses both came on the road on the backend of their fourth and fifth road games over a 7-game stretch.  USC is a perfect 12-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.2 point differential this season.  The Trojans are averaging 86.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  USC’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 38.8% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with USC in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play USC (-).

Washington is having a much better season than projected as the Huskies come into this game with a 13-6 record.  The Huskies are off an 80-75 home loss to Utah on Sunday night.  Washington was 4-point underdogs in that game, and after rallying late to tie the game, they came up short in overtime.  That was their third overtime game in their last seven games, and that loss may linger for awhile.  Washington now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 93 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 43.6% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat UCLA 96-93 in overtime at home earlier this season.  The difference in that game came from three-point land where the Huskies were +24 points after making 11 three’s to just 3 made three’s for the Bruins.  Despite that, Washington only won the game by 3 points in overtime.

UCLA is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played two of those games on the road.  The Bruins return home off a road loss at Oregon, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a strong bounce back performance here.  UCLA is 9-2 at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Bruins’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 40% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Ohio State is 13-8 on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Buckeyes are just 1-4 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by a whopping 23.7 points per game.  Overall, Ohio State has played the #97 rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  The Buckeyes did beat Illinois earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (75-73).  Ohio State won that game at the free throw line as they were +19 in points (28-9) and +28 in attempts (39-11).  Despite that, the Buckeyes only won the game by 2 points, and they won’t get the favorable home whistle in this game.  Ohio State’s offense is only averaging 61.8 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Illinois comes into this game off a 76-71 overtime win at Minnesota on Saturday night.  Off that win, we expect a strong home performance here, especially since the Illini lost their previous home game.  Illinois’ offense has played much better basketball at home where they are averaging 77.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  Ohio State’s defense is giving up 78.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll back Illinois in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play ILLINOIS (+).

Oregon State snapped their 3-game losing streak by beating USC as 2-point home underdogs on Sunday afternoon.  The Beavers scored 85 points in that game after shooting 47.1% (32-68) from the field and 85.7% (18-21) from the free throw line.  Oregon State shot terribly from the three-point line as they only hit 16.7% (3-18) from beyond the arc.  The only reason Oregon State won that game was due to USC simply having one of their worst offensive games of the season.  The Beavers won on the scoreboard, but they did nothing in that game to show that their recent funk is over.  Now they must take to the road where they’ve lost their last two conference games by a combined 23 points.  The Beavers’ offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  They only scored 53 and 54 points in their two conference road games.   

Arizona State has lost three straight games, and six of their last seven games overall.  However, the Sun Devils have played a brutal schedule during that span, including four of the seven games being on the road.  Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Sun Devils’ offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 79.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Louisville is 16-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #149 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 2-3 in true road games this season.  Their two wins have come by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State, and by 4 points (75-71) at Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Virginia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 75-70 home loss to North Carolina.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since nine of the Hokies’ twelve wins have come at home this season.  Virginia Tech is holding their opponents to just 67.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 70.8 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville has not won by big margins on the road this season, so we’ll take the points with the Hokies in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Indiana is 17-3 on the season, but the Hoosiers have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Indiana has played the #143 rated schedule this season; the second worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Eastern Illinois, Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Morehead State, McNeese State, Keenesaw State, and other no-names.  Indiana has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Hoosiers’ defense has been terrible on the road where they are allowing 74.5 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 43.1% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana only beat Wisconsin 59-58 at home earlier this month despite out-shooting the Badgers 48.8%-41.3% from the field, 41.2%-25% from three-point land, and 100%-69.6% from the free throw line.   

Wisconsin struggled early as expected, but the Badgers have played much better basketball recently.  Wisconsin is just 7-6 over their last 13 games, but their six losses have come by a combined 18 points with four of their losses coming by 3 points or less.  Wisconsin is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and their home court is one of the strongest in all of college basketball.  The Badgers are holding their opponents to just 64.2 points per game at home this season.  Indiana’s offensive efficiency drops sharply on the road where they are scoring 10.6 points per game less while shooting 4.1% less from the field and 3.9% less from three-point land.  We expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Creighton is having a much better season than projected as the Bluejays come into this game with a 14-6 record.  However, Creighton has played an easy schedule (ranked 97th) with wins over inferior teams like Texas Southern, UTSA, Rutgers, Western Illinois, North Texas, Coppin State, and others.  Creighton comes into this game off a 72-64 home win over Butler on Saturday night.  The Bluejays had to rally back in the second half to win despite Butler playing that game without two guards who missed because of injuries.  Creighton now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 76.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton beat Georgetown at home earlier this season, but the difference in that game came at the free throw line where the Bluejays were +18 points after a favorable home whistle gave them 25 free throw attempts to just 7 attempts for the Hoyas.     

Georgetown is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played three of the best teams in the Big East, Villanova, Xavier, and Connecticut.  Overall, Georgetown has played the much tougher schedule (ranked 43rd) this season as well.  The Hoyas are now taking a step-down in class against Creighton in this game.  Georgetown comes in off a road loss, and a loss in their previous home game, so that ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Georgetown’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 67.2 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Hoyas are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with Georgetown in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Maryland is having a terrific season as they come into this game with a 17-2 record.  However, the Terrapins are just 9-10 ATS which is a clear indicator that they are not a dominating team.  Maryland has played just the 92nd ranked schedule, so the poor pointspread record certainly raises some red flags.  Maryland’s last two conference road games were also close calls as they lost by 3 points at Michigan and they only won by 3 points at Northwestern.  Now they will be playing in one of the toughest gyms in the Big 10, and another shaky performance will result in a blowout loss.  Maryland is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 30.3% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Terrapins will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Michigan State only allows 24.4% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Michigan State opened the season at 13-0, but the Spartans are just 3-4 over their last seven games.  They come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with two of those losses coming on their strong home court.  Michigan State will come with a peak performance here, and we expect them to snap their losing streak in a big way.  Michigan State’s defense has been excellent all season; they’ve held their opponents to just 55.5 points per game on 34.1% shooting from the field and 25.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Michigan State’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 75.5 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Oklahoma State is just 10-8 on the season, but the majority of the Cowboys’ wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State comes into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 win over Kansas as 9-point home underdogs.  That win was preceded by close games against Oklahoma and Texas.  Those three games culminated in a huge upset win, and it only sets the Cowboys to regress significantly in tonight’s game at Kansas State.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are playing without their best player, Phil Forte, who is out for the season with an elbow injury.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 13 points per game.  

Kansas State is just 1-5 over their last six games, but three of those games came on the road.  The  Wildcats played Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Baylor during that span, so they are now taking a monumental step-down in class against Oklahoma State in this game.  Kansas State also lost their last home game, so returning home off a road loss ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Kansas State is 8-2 at home where they own a +12.3 point differential this season.  The Wildcats’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 23.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State is simply in a terrible spot for a young team, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

Louisville is 15-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #178 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Their lone win came by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State.

Georgia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 78-77 home loss to Virginia Tech.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since the Yellow Jackets are 9-2 at home this season.  Georgia Tech played their worst defensive home game of the season as they allowed 78 points to the Hokies, including 45 points in the second half.  Overall, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 68.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 26.9% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville only beat Georgia Tech 52-51 on this court last season, and we expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into this game at Oregon with a 15-3 record, including a 4-1 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a veteran Oregon team is an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for just the third time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their two previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ and Washington.  The Trojans’ defense comes into this game in poor current form as well; they’ve allowed 81 points per game over their last five games.

Oregon returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 91-87 loss at Colorado.  The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own a terrific +13.9 point differential this season.  Oregon is averaging 78.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Ducks’ defense has also been fantastic at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is a perfect 3-0 when playing off a loss this season, winning those games by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Oregon is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play OREGON (-).

Arizona State surprised many by opening the season with a 10-3 record.  Since their hot start, the Sun Devils are just 1-4 over their last five games.  Arizona State is simply in terrible current form, and that has coincided with the step-up in class.  The Sun Devils are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including 0-2 on the road in conference play.  All three of those losses have come by 7 points or more with their average loss coming by 10.3 points per game.  Arizona State’s defense has been terrible away from home all season; the Sun Devils are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, their defense has been even worse while allowing 82.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 46.9% shooting from three-point land.

California returns home off three straight road losses, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Golden Bears are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.1 point differential this season.  California is averaging 78.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  California did lose Tyrone Wallace to a hand injury, but he was playing out of position at point guard when he’s a natural wing player.  Wallace’s absence will open up the California offense because they’ll be led by true point guard, Sam Singer.  California is the better team and they are desperate for win, so we’ll lay the points with the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CALIFORNIA (-).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a 16-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Seton Hall by margin over the last few meetings as three of the last four meetings have been decided by single digits.  Villanova beat Seton Hall 72-63 on January 6th; that game was close throughout and we expect tonight’s game to play out the same way.  Villanova was held to just 36.2% (21-58) shooting from the field and 18.2% (4-22) from three-point land.  The Wildcats won the game at the free throw line where they were +11 points.  But that game was on their home floor where they get the benefit of the whistle.  That won’t be the case tonight with the rematch on Seton Hall’s home court.  

Seton Hall returns home off an 81-72 win at Providence as 6-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Pirates are now home underdogs, and teams in this situation are strong pointspread propositions.  Seton Hall also lost their previous home game, so that makes this situation even stronger, especially in this pointspread range.  The Pirates play on a very strong home court where they are 8-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  Seton Hall’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field.  The Pirates’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 73.7 points per game.  Seton Hall matches-up well with Villanova, so we’ll back the Pirates on Wednesday night.

9* Play SETON HALL (+).

Butler seeks revenge tonight for an earlier season home loss to Providence.  The Bulldogs blew an 11-point halftime lead in that game after allowing a season-high 56 points to Providence in the second half; Butler lost that game 81-73.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal this season as they are averaging 84.2 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 36% shooting form three-point land.  Butler leads the Big East in scoring, field goal percentage, fewest turnovers, and assist/turnover ratio.  Overall, the Bulldogs’ offense ranks 13th in the country, so they certainly have an elite offensive team.  The same cannot be said of Providence, especially the way they’ve been playing in recent games.

Providence is 1-2 SU over their last three games, and they could be on an 0-3 slide if it wasn’t for a last-second win at Creighton.  The Friars are mired in a terrible offensive slump; they are shooting just 32% from the field and 19% from three-point land over their last three games.  After five Big East games, Providence is the worst shooting team (37.5%) in the conference, and they are ninth out of ten in 3-point shooting at 29%.  “It’s clear that we need to address our shot selection and just be much more disciplined and focused,” said Providence head coach Ed Cooley.  “We need some guys to pick it up, for sure.”  Butler is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll back the Bulldogs in this revenge spot on Tuesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa State ranked #1 in the country with a 15-1 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  In their last three meetings against Iowa State, the Sooners are just 1-2 with their lone win coming by just 4 points on their strong home court in a game they trailed at the half.  Oklahoma will be playing their third game in six days, with two of those games coming on the road.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road recently; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, lost in overtime at Kansas, and they won by 3 points at Hawaii.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 85 points per game on the road this season.

Iowa State is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 13-4 record.  The Cyclones are 8-1 at home where they own an excellent +15.5 point differential on the season.  Iowa State’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 87.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field.  Iowa State is returning home off back-to-back road games, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance here.  We’ll back the Cyclones in this game on Monday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

San Diego State is a shell of the team they’ve had the last couple of seasons.  The Aztecs had two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five last season.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  This year, San Diego State starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Their youth has shown throughout the season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  San Diego State is only averaging 65.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Aztecs had an extremely difficult time scoring points against Boise State’s defense with a veteran team; they were held to just 46 points in the last two meetings.  Now they have a worse offense, so it’s hard to imagine the young and inexperienced Aztecs having much offensive success in tonight’s game.   

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are 13-4 on the season, including a perfect 9-0 at home.  Three of their four losses have come against two of the best teams in the country: Arizona twice and Michigan State.  Boise State is averaging 80.1 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boise State is the better team with the superior offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Air Force plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Falcons play at one of the slowest paces in the country with their Princeton offense.  They combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 42.4% shooting from the field and 32.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Air Force is 3-3 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and in the games in which the Rebels primarily played man-to-man defense, the Falcons averaged 32 points in the paint and they won two of three games.  But UNLV played zone defense in the other games, and they got the better of Air Force.  “If you believe what you read, they won’t play zone,” Air Force Dave Pilipovich said.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice earlier this week, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  The Rebels responded with an 86-74 win over New Mexico in Simon’s first game, but we expect regression off that performance.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Air Force, and as noted above, UNLV is unlikely to play zone defense because Simon wants to play at a fast pace and he doesn’t want his players burnt out on the defensive end of the court.  Air Force’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the generous points with the Falcons in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play AIR FORCE (+).

Connecticut is 11-4 on the season, but the Huskies are not in the best of current form right now.  They’ve won five of their last six games, but Connecticut is on an 0-3 ATS slide.  The Huskies were in a terrific situational spot for their last home game against Memphis, but they barely survived that game in an 81-78 win.  Now the Huskies must take to the road after playing six of their last nine games at home.  Connecticut has been playing without their starting center, Amida Brimah, due to a finger injury.  His absence has really affected Connecticut’s play on both ends of the court, especially inside the paint.  Tulsa has the big guys inside to take advantage of Brimah’s absence. 

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 74 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa’s losses this season have come against strong teams like SMU, Cincinnati, South Carolina, and Oregon State.  Connecticut is a notch below those teams, and Tulsa matches-up extremely well with the Huskies.  We’ll back Tulsa in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

La Salle comes into this game off a 61-57 upset home win over Dayton as 12-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Explorers actually trailed 43-36 with 8 minutes left to play before rallying to win that game.  That win ended a 7-game losing streak for La Salle, and all the points were scored by the starters.  Off such a game, the Explorers figure to regress sharply tonight, especially since they will be facing a focused Richmond team that will come with their best effort.  La Salle is an extremely shorthanded team because of injuries and suspensions; they only have six players in the mix.  La Salle starts four guards, and they simply get crushed on the boards, and they’ll be unable to overcome that in this game.

Richmond returns home after playing back-to-back road games; three of their last four games have come on the road.  The Spiders also lost their last home game to St. Joseph’s after blowing a halftime lead.  Richmond will be ready for a peak performance in this game, and they will simply overwhelm a thin La Salle team.  Richmond’s offense has been tremendous at home as they are averaging 81.9 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  La Salle’s defense is giving up 77 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Spiders on Wednesday night.   

9* Play RICHMOND (-).

Kansas is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at West Virginia ranked #1 in the country with a 14-1 record.  The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Mountaineers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Kansas.  In their last three meetings against West Virginia, the Jayhawks are just 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime on their strong home court; they trailed by 14 points at the half in that game.  Kansas will be playing their second consecutive road game, and it comes on the heels of their 109-106 triple overtime home win over Oklahoma.  Kansas will also face 40 minutes of pressure from the Mountaineers who employ a relentless full-court press; the Jayhawks have yet to face a similar team this season.  West Virginia is #1 in the country in turnover percentage meaning they force their opponents into a lot of mistakes.  They also have the #2 three-point defense in the country; they hold their opponents to just 26.3% shooting from three-point land at home.

West Virginia is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 14-1 record.  The Mountaineers are a perfect 7-0 at home where they own an incredible +36.7 point differential on the season.  West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 93.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field.  West Virginia is also tremendous on the glass as they rank #1 in offensive rebounding percentage which allows them to get a lot of second-chance points.  West Virginia matches-up extremely well with Kansas, so we’ll back the Mountaineers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler with a 13-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Butler by margin in Hinkle Fieldhouse, winning 76-73 in overtime two years ago and 68-65 last year.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  The way to beat the Bulldogs is with guards that can break down a defense off the dribble.  Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson are terrific guards, but Villanova’s offense is not based on dribble penetration.  The Wildcats want to get out and run in transition, but when forced into half-court offense, they run set plays that look to free open a spot-up shooter.  Villanova’s style of play has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The Bulldogs lost their previous home game to Providence after blowing an 11-point halftime lead.  Butler plays on a very strong home court where they are 7-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 94.8 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been much worse on the road this season; they are allowing 76.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting form the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they are getting points in this game, we’ll back the Bulldogs on Sunday night.

9* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina has been impressive this season, and the Tar Heels come into this game with a 14-2 record.  They’ve scored 78 points or more in 15 of their 16 games this season which is incredible.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Syracuse plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  North Carolina has been held to less than 70 points just once this season, and that resulted in a loss at Northern Iowa.  Syracuse has held all nine of their home opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.  North Carolina scored a season-high 106 points at Florida State in their last game, so regression is expected in this game.

Syracuse is 10-6 on the season, and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with the last being a 74-73 overtime loss at home to Clemson.  Off that loss, and with head coach Jim Boeheim returning after serving his 9-game suspension, we expect a peak performance by Syracuse in this game.  The Orange play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Syracuse is holding their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Syracuse also matches-up extremely well with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels score 61% of their points from 2-point range, but Syracuse only allows 49% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Orange score 37% of their points from three-point land, and 37% of the points scored on North Carolina come from beyond the arc.  Syracuse’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll back the Orange in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SYRACUSE (+).

Memphis is 10-4 on the season, but the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Southern Mississippi, Grambling State, Texas-Arlington, SE Missouri State, Southern, Indiana-Purdue, and Nicholls State.  Memphis is taking a big step-up in class against Connecticut in this game, and they may be doing so without Kedren Johnson who has a nagging shoulder injury; he has averaged 15.5 points per game against Connecticut in his career.  Memphis’ defense has been atrocious away from home this season; the Tigers are giving up 86 points per game.  Memphis has only played one true road game, and they lost by 10 points at South Carolina. 

Connecticut comes into this game off 55-53 home loss to Temple on Tuesday night.  The Huskies played their worst offensive game of the season as they only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  Connecticut was forced into a half-court scrum by Temple, but the Huskies’ offense will play much better in this game since Memphis likes to play at a quick pace.  Connecticut is averaging 83.1 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Connecticut’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Connecticut in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play CONNECTICUT (-).

Wichita State comes into this game with just a 9-5 record.  Prior to the season, most projections had the Shockers with just one or two losses at this point.  But an early injury to star guard Fred VanVleet saw Wichita State open the season at just 2-4.  Wichita State is 7-1 since VanVleet returned, but the Shockers have played five of those games at home and two of those wins only came by 3 and 6 points.  They also lost in overtime at Seton Hall, so the Shockers have not been a dominating team by any means this season, even with VanVleet on the court.  Wichita State must now hit the road where they are giving up 67 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those numbers are way up from previous years, and they indicate that Wichita State may have been a tad overvalued coming into this season.  

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 14-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off a blowout road win at Bradley, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that has held their last five opponents to just 40.6% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Salukis are still flying way under the radar, and this is their biggest game in a few years.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Michigan is 12-3 on the season, but the Wolverines have failed miserably when stepping-up in class.  Michigan’s wins have come against the likes of Northern Michigan, Elon, Houston Baptist, Delaware State, Northern Kentucky, Youngstown State, and Bryant.  The Wolverines lost to Xavier by 16 points, they lost to Connecticut by 14 points, and they lost to SMU by 24 points.  Michigan is now taking a big step-up in class against Purdue in this game, and they might be doing so without their leading scorer, Chris Lavert, who is questionable with a lower leg injury.  Michigan is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 42.1% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Wolverines will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Purdue only allows 26.7% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Purdue comes into this game off a 70-63 home loss to Iowa on Saturday night.  The Boilermakers blew a 17-point halftime lead in that game after getting out-scored 50-26 in the second half.  “We need to use the Iowa game as a wakeup call and a way to focus more on details,” Kendall Stephens said.  “There are things we have been overlooking. We can’t play through our offense. We have to build the foundation with defense.”  Purdue’s defense has been excellent all season, so we’ll just chalk-up that poor second half to a random outcome.  The Boilermakers have held their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Purdue’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 83 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Nevada has played much better basketball this season, and in fact, the Wolf Pack have already won 9 games; they went 9-22 overall last season.  A major reason for the turnaround is new head coach Eric Musselman who is well-regarded in coaching circles.  However, this is a difficult spot for Nevada after coming from behind to beat Wyoming 71-68 at home on Saturday night.  The Wolf Pack have been two different teams at home and on the road; they are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  Nevada has lost those games by an average of 11 points per game, and a major reason for that has been their terrible defense.  Nevada is giving up 80.8 points per game on the road this season, and their defense will have a difficult time slowing down a potent Bulldogs offense.

Fresno State comes into this game off a terrible 77-62 home loss to New Mexico on Saturday night.  That was an inexplicably bad performance by the Bulldogs, and off such a poor effort, we expect a big bounce back game tonight.  “He got on us on Sunday, and that’s what he does,” Julien Lewis said of Fresno State head coach Rodney Terry.  “We needed that to wake us up.”  Fresno State is 8-2 at home where they are averaging 74.1 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 68.8 points per game at home on 41.2% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  Fresno State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.            

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Oklahoma State is 9-4 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Baylor in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte who will likely miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are trying to mix in junior college transfers.  “Junior college players are always better the second year, drastically better,” Oklahoma State head coach Travis Ford said.  “They develop a little better habits and they have so much of a better understanding.”

Baylor comes into this game off a 102-74 blowout loss at Kansas on Saturday afternoon.  The Jayhawks are the best team in the country, so the loss can be excused.  Baylor returns home while taking a huge step-down in class, so this is a terrific bounce back spot for the Bears.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 at home where they are averaging 83.2 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 60.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State will be playing their first true road game of the season, and it’s simply a terrible spot for a young team.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

New Mexico comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Lobos are just 1-4 over their last five games, and a major reason for that has been the play of their defense.  New Mexico has been unable to stop their opponents from scoring recently.  Over their last five games, the Lobos have given up 85.4 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 43.3% shooting from three-point land.  New Mexico has allowed 70 points or more in nine of their fourteen games this season, and those games have come against an extremely weak slate of opponents.  New Mexico is just 1-5 away from home this season with four of those five losses coming by 5 points or more; their average loss has come by 15.6 points per game.     

Fresno State is finally putting their talent to good use on the court.  The Bulldogs have been an underachieving team over the last couple of seasons, but they are clicking this season.  Fresno State comes into this game with a solid 10-4 record; three of their losses have come on the road.  Fresno State has also played a tough road schedule with games at UNLV, at Arizona, and at Oregon.  They won against UNLV in their last game, and lost the other two games by just 5 and 13 points.  Fresno State is 8-1 at home where they are averaging 75.9 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Fresno State in this game on Saturday night.            

9* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Northern Iowa comes in off a 36-point blowout win at home over Bradley.  That was the Panthers’ largest margin of victory in a conference game; the win eclipsed their 34-point win over Bradley back in 2014.  Northern Iowa played their best game of the season as they shot 58.7% (27-46) from the field and 40% (8-20) from three-point land.  It was a total team effort as five players scored 11 points or more.  That win was preceded by an away loss to BYU on a neutral court.  Now the Panthers must hit the road again off a perfect home performance, and they are laying points in a spot that sets them up to regress.  Northern Iowa will be playing their eight road game in their last eleven games, and this will also be their fifth game over a 12-day span.

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 12-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off three consecutive road wins, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois won 72-62 at Loyola-Chicago last Wednesday night, and opposing coach Porter Moser had high praise for the Salukis: “They’re a very confident, hard-playing team right now. The physicality they played with. The offensive rebounds, keeping it alive, the blocked shots.”  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that is holding opponents to just 42.3% shooting from the field.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Michigan State comes into this game as the #1 team in the country with a perfect 13-0 record.  However, the Spartans have played just three solid teams this season; they beat Kansas by 6 points, Louisville by 4 points, and Florida by 6 points.  Michigan State played all three of those games with their best player, Denzel Valentine, and two of those games were at home with another game on a a neutral court.  Valentine is out until mid-January with a knee injury, and the Spartans will play their first true road conference game while missing their most important player.  Valentine was playing 30.6 minutes per game while averaging 19 points per game, collecting eight rebounds per game, and dishing out seven assists per game.  Valentine dominated the ball on offense while accounting for 29.2% of Michigan State’s possessions and taking 30.1% of the shots while grabbing 24.5% of the defensive rebounds.  That’s a lot of production by one player, and his absence tonight will be too much to overcome for the Spartans.

Iowa comes into this game with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home.  Their three losses have come by a combined 12 points to good teams like Dayton, Notre Dame, and Iowa State who are a combined 27-6 on the season.  The Hawkeyes are flying well under the radar this season, but they are an experienced team that has a lot of talent.  Iowa starts four seniors, including Jarrod Uthoff who will be a top NBA draft pick.  Iowa is a well-balanced team as they’ve had nine different players reach double figures at least once this season, and five different players have led the team in scoring at least once in 12 games.  “We’re in a good place,” said head coach Fran McCaffery.  “We’re taking care of the ball, our shot selection is good, and our ball movement is good. We have a lot of different guys producing, so ultimately, I feel pretty good.”  Iowa is catching Michigan State at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play IOWA (-).

Kansas has been one of the best teams in the country this season, both in efficiency metrics and with the eye test.  The Jayhawks have one the best offenses and defenses in the country; they score 1.16 points per 100 possessions and they only allow 0.90 points per 100 possessions.  Kansas also has an effective 60.0% field goal percentage which ranks them #4 in the nation.  The Jayhawks’ offense is simply terrific, and they combine that with a stout defense which allows them to win games by margin.  In fact, Kansas has won all nine of their games by 6 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +25.9 points per game this season.  Kansas has had this game circled since losing at home versus San Diego State two seasons ago as a 10.5-point favorite.  That loss broke the Jayhawks' 68-game home winning streak against against non-conference opponents.

San Diego State is a shell of the team that beat Kansas two years ago.  The Aztecs played that game with two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  Kansas was playing with four freshman and two sophomores in their top seven.  The roles are reversed for this game.  San Diego State now starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Kansas starts two seniors and two juniors while their bench is loaded with top recruits.  San Diego State returns one player from last year’s team, and after an ugly 52-45 home loss to Grand Canyon on Friday night, Winston Shepard simply said, “We’re still figuring it out and at some point our talent is going to surpass our challenges and our cohesion.”  The Aztecs also own losses against Arkansas-Little Rock and San Diego this season.  Kansas is simply the superior team in a focused revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 5-4 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their five wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, Army, and Florida Atlantic.  All five of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee has lost to every good team they have played like George Washington, Nebraska, and Butler.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class against Gonzaga, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

Gonzaga has already lost a pair of home games, but those losses came to Arizona and UCLA.  This game will be played in Seattle, but it’s always a game the Zags take very seriously.  Gonzaga comes in off a perfect prep as they waxed St. Martin’s by 36 points (86-50) after shooting 51.6% (33-64) from the field and 45% (9-20) from three-point land.  They’ll carry momentum into this game, especially on offense since Tennessee plays little defense while playing at a quick pace.  This is a perfect matchup for Gonzaga, and they will dominate the paint with their significant height advantage.  Gonzaga is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags on Saturday night.

9* Play GONZAGA (-).

South Carolina is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gamecocks have been able to play at their preferred pace in all nine of their games this season; they’ve scored 76 points or more in every game.  South Carolina will play their first true road game tonight, and they are not going to get to play their style of basketball.  This is simply a bad match-up for the Gamecocks.  Clemson routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; South Carolina has yet to play in such a game this season.  The slow pace and strong half-court defense of Clemson will be the deciding factors in this game. 

Clemson is 7-3 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Tigers slow and defensive ways.  Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court.  The Tigers are allowing just 56.9 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  Clemson has held all seven of their home opponents to 56 points or less this season.  We expect Clemson to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Tigers on Friday night. 

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Mississippi State is in rebuilding mode under new head coach Ben Howland.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 4-4 SU record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  Mississippi State has only played one true road game this season, and that resulted in a 72-67 loss to UMKC in their last game.  Now they are playing on the road once again while stepping way up in class and playing shorthanded.  The Bulldogs will be without Travis Daniels (concussion) who averages 29 minutes and 9.1 points per game.  They may also be without I.J. Ready (turf toe) who averages 31 minutes and 12.4 points per game.  Mississippi State likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but so does Florida State and they do it better which makes this game a likely blowout.

Florida State has alternated good and bad years over the past four seasons.  Last year they only won 17 games, but the Seminoles come into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a perfect 3-0 at home.  Florida State looks to be headed for a 20+ win season, especially since they’ve tightened up their defense.  The Seminoles are only giving up 66.3 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 34.8% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Florida State’s offense has been excellent; the Seminoles are averaging 85.4 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field.  They will now face a terrible Mississippi State defense that is giving up 76.1 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field.  Florida State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Oregon comes into this game with a good-looking 7-1 record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Ducks also began the season with six consecutive home games, and their last two games have come on a neutral court.  Tonight’s game against Boise State will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season, and they’ll be playing this game shorthanded.  The Ducks will be without their leading scorer and top assist guy, Tyler Dorsey, due to a knee injury.  Dorsey is averaging 14.4 points and 2.9 assists per game.  Oregon likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but their ability to score easy baskets in transition will be limited without Dorsey on the court.

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are just 6-4 on the season, but two of those losses came to Arizona, and another loss came to Michigan State.  Boise State is a much better team than their record indicates, and they are better than Oregon who is 7-1.  The Broncos don’t often get to host a Pac 12 team on their home court, so this is a game that is quite important.  Boise State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Stony Brook returned all five starters this season from last year’s 23-win team.  The Seawolves also landed JUCO transfer Ahmad Walker who is averaging 10.5 points per game this season.  Stony Brook’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 76.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field.  Stony Brook is 4-2 on the season with their losses coming by a combined 8 points, including an overtime loss at Vanderbilt.  The Seawolves are a deep team that uses a 10-man rotation with every guy averaging at least 13 minutes per game.  Stony Brook is also an excellent rebounding team that owns a +18 margin per game on the glass.  This is a rare national TV game against a name team for Stony Brook, so we expect a peak performance by the Seawolves.

Notre Dame is 5-2 on the season, and the Irish have alternated wins and losses over their last five games.  They come off a win in their last game, so if their recent pattern holds up, the Irish will be looking at a defeat in this game.  Notre Dame’s wins this season have come against St. Francis (PA), Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UMass-Lowell, Iowa, and Illinois.  The Irish lost to Monmouth and Alabama.  Notre Dame is taking a step-up in class against Stony Brook in this game as the Seawolves are rated higher in efficiency metrics than the opponents the Irish have played so far this season.  In a game that will be close throughout, we’ll take Stony Brook plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play STONY BROOK (+).

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 77.8 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa comes into this game off a poor home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock in a game they only scored 60 points.  But off that poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back tonight, especially against an Oklahoma State team that is playing shorthanded.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin and Towson.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Tulsa in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte and key reserve Tavarius Shine.  “They’re probably a better basketball team than we are right now, just from the fact that they’re experienced, things like that,” head coach Travis Ford said.  “We understand we have a great challenge in front of us.”  We’ll take Tulsa plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Maryland is a perfect 6-0 on the season, and they are very confident that they will remain undefeated after tonight’s game against North Carolina.  The Terrapins have a terrific point guard in Melo Trimble and a roster loaded with height that makes them a formidable opponent for the Tar Heels.  Head coach Mark Turgeon is expecting his team to play one of their best games of the season because Maryland will finally be able to play their tall lineup for the majority of the game.  “You know, we are built for games like this. Rhode Island was a big team and we matched up well with them (86-63 win). Carolina will allow us to play our big lineup for 40 mins. It’s a good matchup for us.”

North Carolina comes into this game with a 5-1 record with their lone loss coming against Northern Iowa.  The Tar Heels will get point guard Marcus Paige back on the court; he’s been out with a broken right hand.  Paige is set to play, but how effective will he be in his first game with new players surrounding him?  It’s simply going to take some time for Paige to get back into game-speed shape.  North Carolina has also failed to cover the pointspread in four consecutive games despite playing inferior teams.  Maryland is the better team at this point, and this is the Terrapins’ biggest game in a long time.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Maryland plus the points on Tuesday night.

10* Play MARYLAND (+).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 4-1 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their four wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, and Army.  All four of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee’s lone loss came against a mediocre Georgia Tech team.  Tennessee is taking a major step-up in class in this game against George Washington, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  They come into this game with a perfect 5-0 record that includes an impressive 73-68 win over Virginia.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them a difficult team to score points on.  The Colonials’ defense is holding teams to just 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  George Washington is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Colonials on Friday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Wake Forest pulled off a huge upset last night when they beat Indiana 82-78 as 12.5-point underdogs.  That win was one of the biggest for the Demon Deacons since Danny Manning became head coach.  Wake Forest put everything they had into that game, and they played well above their level.  The Demon Deacons shot 50.7% (35-69) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land.  Wake Forest also plays a short rotation, and they had four starters play 30 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 33 minutes or more.  The Demon Deacons only go 7 deep, and one of those two reserves played 24 minutes.  Wake Forest is in a major flat spot, and they will be playing on tired legs against a team that is simply superior to them.           

Vanderbilt steamrolled St. John’s 92-55 last night.  The Commodores shot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Vanderbilt’s big win allowed head coach Kevin Stallings to rest his starters; all five played 25 minutes or less.  In fact, Vanderbilt had 10 players play double digit minutes, and the majority of the scoring and hot shooting came from the reserves.  The Commodores are well rested for this game, and their starters will be ready for their best effort.  Vanderbilt also has a much better defense than what Wake Forest faced last night, so the Commodores will force the Demon Deacons into a bad offensive output.  Vanderbilt is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  Head coach Leon Rice and his players have had this game circled since the summer, so they’ll be ready: “It’s a great opportunity to play against a top 10 program that year in and year out is in a hunt for a national title,” Rice said.  “These are the kinds of games that, for a lot of guys, is the reason they come to Boise State.”  Boise State will not be overwhelmed by playing at Arizona after the Broncos had to play in Dayton against the Flyers in the First Four of the NCAA tournament last season.   

Arizona always has a good team; they’ve won 27 games or more in four of the last five seasons.  The Wildcats have won 67 games over the last two seasons, but those wins come at a price.  The Wildcats are continuously reloading new talent after losing players to professional basketball, so they are the most vulnerable early in the season.  Arizona is playing with three transfers in their starting lineup, and it’s simply going to take time for those guys to gel.  In their first two games, the Wildcats own a -3 (25-22) turnover margin which is a sign that the team lacks some chemistry right now.  Head coach Sean Miller knows tonight’s game will be a tough one: “We think they’re one of the best teams in the country,” Miller said. “They have a great coach, a terrific offensive system, and that puts a lot of pressure on our defense. It’s going to be a really, really strong challenge. I think it will be one of the toughest all season.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Boise State on Thursday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (+).

Wichita State has been a fantastic program over the last few years as they’ve produced some excellent teams.  The Shockers have won 30 games or more in three straight years, and they made the Final Four in 2013.  Wichita State will be a very good team once again this season, but tonight’s game against Tulsa will be a difficult challenge.  The Shockers have a terrific backcourt with Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, but the latter is battling thru injuries.  VanVleet has a strained left hamstring and a sprained ankle; he only played three minutes in their season opener.  VanVleet is expected to give it a go tonight, but his effectiveness may be limited.  Wichita State also has some question marks in the frontcourt, so until they find a consistent post player, they are a bit vulnerable.  The Shockers also have to wait until mid-December for Conner Frankamp, a Kansas transfer, to become eligible.  

Tulsa is ready for a breakout season under head coach Frank Haith after winning 21 games in 2014 and 24 games in 2015.  The Golden Hurricane returns all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s rotation.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they scored 98 points in their season opener.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 8,300 people.  It’s also a very big game for the Tulsa program: “To play a team of this caliber, one of the best teams in the country on your court, there’s nothing but opportunity,” said coach Haith.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Tulsa on Tuesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Virginia was expected to regress some last season after losing a ton of talent from their 30-win team the previous season.  However, that did not happen as the Cavaliers went on to win 30 games once again.  The Cavaliers now have high expectations coming into this season as eight of their top ten scorers return from last year’s team.  Head coach Tony Bennett runs fantastic schemes on both ends of the court, but Virginia often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  Virginia has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returns four starters this season.  George Washington will have one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense will make them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field last season, and they are expected to be even stingier this season.  George Washington gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 5,000 people.  That’s a nice advantage to have against a big-name team used to playing in spacious arenas.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Monday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

Eastern Illinois is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Panthers are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Jay Spoonhour led the team to their first postseason appearance since 2001.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Eastern Illinois has nine newcomers, including six true freshman, two junior college transfers, and a graduate transfer on the roster this season.  The Panthers are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  Eastern Illinois gets a terrible match-up in their season opener as Indiana is simply the superior team that also runs an up-tempo offense.  The fact that the Hoosiers play extremely fast means that Eastern Illinois will be overrun by better talent while unable to trade points.

Indiana is built to win right away as they return four starters from last year’s 20-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Hoosiers averaged 77 points per game last season while shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.6% from three-point land.  Indiana is also a good free throw shooting team (71.9%) which helps them extend leads.  Indiana is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “It’s critical,” senior guard Nick Zeisloft said.  “Coach hit on that. All the practices, all the exhibitions, all the games that lead up. Everything adds up.”  The Hoosiers are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect Indiana to win this game by 30 points or more on Friday night.  

10* Play INDIANA (-).

Duke and Wisconsin played earlier this season with the Blue Devils winning 80-70 on the Badgers’ home court as a 4-point road underdog.  Duke actually dominated that game as they shot 65.2% (30-46) from the field and 58.3% (7-12) from three-point land.  Duke is an elite offensive team as they score 1.19 points per possession.  Overall, Duke averages 79.2 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke’s defense has been outstanding throughout the tournament.  The Blue Devils have held all five of their opponents to 61 points or less.  Duke has held those five opponents to just 37.4% (108-289) shooting from the field and 26.9% (21-78) shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their points), but Duke’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 24% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  The Blue Devils are also comfortable playing slow-down, half-court teams like Wisconsin.  In fact, Duke is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season against Wisconsin, Virginia, San Diego State, and Utah.

Wisconsin is off back-to-back straight-up wins as an underdog, and now they are laying points in the championship game against Duke who has won four of their five tournament games by 14 points or more.  Wisconsin’s offense was tremendous in their last two games against Arizona and Kentucky, two teams with stout defenses.  The Badgers shot 51.6% (48-93) from the field and an incredible 54.3% (19-35) from three-point land in those two games.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona and Kentucky 57-15 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Duke’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite their impressive shooting, Wisconsin trailed at the half against Arizona, and they trailed Kentucky by 4 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  Duke scores 53% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Duke out-shot Wisconsin 68% to 39% from two-point range earlier this season when they played on December 3rd.  Wisconsin has played to their max in their last two games, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat those performances tonight, especially after two straight underdog wins.  The Kentucky upset on Saturday was especially emotional as the Badgers knocked off a 38-0 SU team and also got revenge from their one-point loss in the Final Four last year.  Now, Wisconsin must regroup on just one day's rest and face a Duke squad that won easily by 20 points on Saturday night.  We'll take the value with Duke as an underdog in this game tonight.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Kentucky is obviously the best team in the country, and we expect the Wildcats to put on a show in this game, especially since they are motivated after a subpar performance against Notre Dame last week.  Kentucky is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.14 points per possession while only giving up 0.81 points per possession.  Overall, Kentucky averages 74.6 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s defense is only allowing 53.9 points per game on 35.1% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their total points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 25% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  This game is also being played in a large football stadium (Lucas Oil) with unusual sight lines which makes outside shooting more difficult.

Wisconsin has been flirting with losses recently as they’ve trailed by 7 points or more in recent games before rallying back to win.  The Badgers’ offense broke out in a big way in their last game against Arizona.  Wisconsin shot 55.6% (25-for-45) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (12-for-18) from three-point land.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona 36-6 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Kentucky’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite that impressive shooting against Arizona, Wisconsin still trailed at the half and they only led by 5 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored against them coming from 2-point range.  Kentucky scores 55% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin played their max game against Arizona, and they’ll be unable to duplicate that performance tonight.  Kentucky is ready for a breakout game, and they are likely to do it here, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play KENTUCKY (-).