New Mexico went 17-13 SU during the regular season, but they ended on a 1-3 SU slide.  The Lobos won their last game 64-59 over San Diego State as 1.5-point home underdogs.  New Mexico is a team that needs to play at a faster pace to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace against Fresno State in this game.  New Mexico struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Lobos went just 1-4 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Fresno State routinely plays in games that have low possessions, so New Mexico’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Fresno State was in a funk for the month of January when they went just 4-6 SU over a ten-game stretch.  The Bulldogs have reverted back to their winning ways as they come into this game on a 5-game winning streak.  Fresno State plays at a slow pace while playing solid defense.  Over their last five games, Fresno State’s defense has given up just 60.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  New Mexico’s offense is in poor current form; the Bulldogs have only averaged 66 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll back Fresno State in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Rutgers went just 14-17 SU during the regular season with ten of those wins coming on their home court.  The Scarlett Knights went just 4-11 SU away from home, so it’s apparent they’ve played much worse on the road this season.  Rutgers already lost to Ohio State earlier this season after their offense shot just 39.7% (25-63) from the field and 23.5% (4-17) from three-point land.  The Scarlett Knights have struggled all season on offense, and in fact, Rutgers only averages 65 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  Rutgers’ offense averages just 61 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Ohio State comes into tonight’s game off a 96-91 home loss to Indiana in their season finale.  The Buckeyes played their worst defensive game of the season while allowing Indiana to shoot 58.6% (34-58) from the field and 52.2% (12-23) from three-point land.  Off that awful defensive performance, we expect a strong bounce back game by Ohio State, especially since they are taking a monumental step-down in offensive class against Rutgers.  Overall, the Buckeyes’ defense only gives up 69.9 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Ohio State in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Minnesota has an impressive 23-7 SU record, and the Golden Gophers come into this game on an 8-game winning streak.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Wisconsin team that plays at a very slow pace.  The Golden Gophers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are just 1-3 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Wisconsin routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Minnesota’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Wisconsin comes into their season finale on a 3-game losing streak with their last being a terrible 59-57 loss to Iowa as 12-point home favorites.  Off that ugly effort, and with this being the last home game for their seniors, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Badgers only give up 56.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field at home.  Minnesota’s offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 69.6 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll lay the points with Wisconsin in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Duke has an impressive 23-7 SU record, and the Blue Devils already beat North Carolina by 8 points (86-78) earlier this season.  But we expect a much different outcome in the rematch, especially with this game on North Carolina’s strong home court.  Duke shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land in the first meeting, but that won’t be repeated tonight.  The Blue Devils have played much better basketball at home than on the road, and in fact, Duke is just 4-5 SU in true road games this season.  Duke’s defense is giving up 71.7 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an expected loss at Virginia.  The Tar Heels played their worst game of the season, especially on offense as they scored just 43 points against the Cavaliers.  North Carolina is a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  North Carolina’s offense is averaging 87.3 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina’s defense has been terrific at home where they are only giving up 64.8 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.     

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Kansas comes into tonight’s game at Oklahoma State with the #1 ranking and an impressive 27-3 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks.  Kansas will hit the road after an emotional senior night win over Oklahoma.  The Jayhawks trailed by 12 points in the second half before rallying back for a 73-63 win.  Kansas shot 50% (26-52) from the field and 47.4% (9-19) from three-point land in that comeback win.  Kansas beat Oklahoma State 87-80 at home earlier this season, but they trailed at the half, and they got out-shot 45.6%-44.1% from the field.  The Jayhawks were fortunate in getting a very favorable whistle in that game as they were +19 points from the free throw line while attempting a whopping 45 free throws to the Cowboys’ 14 attempts from the line.

Oklahoma State returns home off an 86-83 road loss at Iowa State.  The Cowboys are in excellent current form; they are 8-2 SU over their last ten games.  Oklahoma State is 11-4 SU at home where their offense has been very difficult to stop.  The Cowboys are averaging 91.5 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State’s strong offense will face a Kansas defense that has been significantly worse on the road where they are giving up 71.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field.  This is a natural letdown spot for Kansas, so we’ll back Oklahoma State at home on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (pick).

Texas Tech comes into today’s game at Kansas State with a solid 18-12 SU record.  However, sixteen of their eighteen wins this season have come on their home court.  The Red Raiders are 0-8 SU in conference road games, and we do not expect that to change after this game.  Texas Tech is just 3-6 SU over their last nine games, so they are not in good current form right now.  The Red Raiders beat Kansas State 66-65 earlier this season, but the Red Raiders were fortunate as they trailed at the half, and they only led for a total of 47 seconds in the second half.  That’s not a good sign with the rematch on the road, especially since Texas Tech gives up 72.9 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Kansas State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 75-74 win at TCU.  The Wildcats have lost their previous four home games, and with this being their final game of the regular season, they’ll be primed for a peak performance this afternoon.  Kansas State is holding opponents to just 67 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Kansas State’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 74.6 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

Florida State has an impressive 23-6 SU record, and the Seminoles already blew out Duke by 16 points (88-72) earlier this season.  But we expect a much different outcome in the rematch, especially with this game on Duke’s strong home court.  Florida State shot 53% (35-66) from the field in the first meeting, but that won’t be repeated tonight.  The Seminoles have played much better basketball at home than on the road, and in fact, Florida State is just 3-5 SU in true road games this season.  Florida State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 76.1 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.

Duke returns home off back-to-back road losses at Syracuse and at Miami, FL.  The Blue Devils are 14-1 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Duke’s offense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Blue Devils are averaging 85.6 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke’s offense will take advantage of Florida State’s poor road defense, especially since the Seminoles will be playing their second consecutive road game, their fourth road game in five games, and their seventh road game over their last ten games overall.  We’ll lay the points with Duke in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play DUKE (-).

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 11-5 SU and 6-10 ATS over their last sixteen games.  West Virginia will play back-to-back road games for just the second time this season; they lost the second game in this situation back in January.  West Virginia’s defense is in poor current form; the Mountaineers have given up 69.6 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them being priced in this range, especially on the road against a Baylor team that is in an excellent scheduling spot.

Baylor returns home off an expected road loss at Iowa State on Saturday.  The Bears are 14-2 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Baylor’s defense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Bears are holding their opponents to just 58.9 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor has held fifteen of their sixteen home opponents to less than 70 points this season.  West Virginia just scored 61 points in their last game at TCU, and they were fortunate to win that game by a single point.  Baylor is a monumental step-up in class for the Mountaineers’ offense, so expect them to struggle once again.  We’ll back Baylor in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play BAYLOR (+).

North Carolina has an impressive 25-5 SU record, and the Tar Heels are certainly one of the most talented teams in the country.  The Tar Heels already waxed Virginia by 24 points (65-41) earlier this season, but we expect a much closer game in the rematch.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Even though they blew out Virginia in the first meeting, the game was slow and the Tar Heels only scored 65 points at home.  North Carolina struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are 0-3 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so North Carolina’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Virginia returns home after a confidence-building 70-55 road win at NC State on Saturday.  The Cavaliers have lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 51.1 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three point-land at home.  North Carolina’s defense has been terrible on the road where they allow 77.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll take the points with Virginia in this game on Monday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Butler comes into today’s game at Xavier with an impressive 22-6 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bulldogs.  Butler will be playing back-to-back road games with their last being a 74-66 win at Villanova as 10-point underdogs.  Butler shot 50.9% (27-53) from the field and 40% (10-25) from three-point land in that game.  The Bulldogs will now lay points on the road off that upset win while playing in a natural letdown spot.  Butler will also be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and their eighth road game over their last fourteenth game overall.

Xavier returns home off three straight road games with all of those games ending in defeat.  The Musketeers also lost their previous home game, so they will be primed for a peak performance this afternoon, especially against an upper echelon team like Butler.  Xavier is 12-2 SU at home where their defense is holding opponents to just 65 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Xavier’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 77.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll take the points with Xavier in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play XAVIER (+).

Iowa comes into tonight’s game off an extremely fortunate 96-90 home overtime win over Indiana on Tuesday night.  The Hawkeyes were dominated in that game, but they overcame a double-digit deficit because of Indiana’s ineptitude and a very generous whistle (they had a 49-17 free throw attempts advantage).  That gift win snapped a 3-game losing streak for Iowa, but we expect them to revert back to their losing ways in this game.  The Hawkeyes’ defense has been their weakness as they’ve given up 70 points or more in ten of their last eleven games.  On the road, their defense has given up 85 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land.

Maryland is on a 2-game losing streak with their last being an 89-75 home loss to Minnesota.  The Terrapins are now primed for a big bounce back win, and we expect that tonight, especially since they already beat Iowa 84-76 on the road earlier this season.  Maryland has a very good defense, especially at home where they are holding opponents to just 66.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three point-land.  The Terrapins’ offense has been consistent all season while averaging 74.3 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Terrapins in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MARYLAND (-).

Baylor comes into today’s game at Iowa State with an impressive 23-5 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bears.  Baylor will hit the road while facing revenge after playing back-to-back home games.  Baylor beat Iowa State 65-63 at home earlier this season while out-shooting Iowa State 44.1%-39.3% from the field.  The Bears were also +5 points from the free throw line, but only won that game by 2 points on their home court.  Baylor’s offense is in poor current form, and they’ve struggled mightily with their half court offense against good defenses all season.  The Bears’ offense was unable to score on Iowa State at home, so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to do much damage against the Cyclones on the road.

Iowa State is in excellent current form as they’ve won four straight games and five of their last six games overall.  Iowa State is 10-3 SU at home where their offense has been very difficult to stop.  The Cyclones are averaging 82.2 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s strong offense will face a Baylor defense that has been significantly worse on the road, especially recently when they’ve allowed 73, 75, and 84 points in three of their last four road games.  This is a huge game for Iowa State, so we’ll back the Cyclones at home on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Towson comes into today’s game at William & Mary with a solid 19-11 SU record, including an 82-80 home win over the Tribe earlier this season.  Towson was down 46-33 at the half in that game, and they allowed William & Mary to shoot 46.2% (24-52) from the field and 45.5% (10-22) from three-point land.  The Tribe also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game.  Despite all that, Towson somehow managed to comeback and win that game.  But the fact that they allowed William & Mary to control that game on their strong home court does not bode well for the rematch which comes on the road this afternoon.  Towson’s offense is significantly worse on the road where they only average 68.2 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land this season.

William & Mary owns a 15-13 SU record, including a terrific 12-1 mark at home.  The Tribe will play their final home game of the season, and since they are off a poor 14-point home loss to Hofstra and playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance in this game.  William & Mary’s offense is in excellent current form.  The Tribe averaged 81.8 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a terrific spot for William & Mary to bounce back strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Tribe in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Memphis comes into tonight’s game at Cincinnati with a solid 18-9 SU record on the season.  However, the Tigers are in poor current form as they are just 1-3 SU over their last four games.  Memphis’ offense has been terrible recently.  In fact, the Tigers have scored 66 points or less in six of their last seven games.  It’s highly unlikely Memphis will be able to snap out of their offensive funk tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  Over their last five games, the Tigers are only averaging 66.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  Memphis will now face a stout Cincinnati defense that only gives up 62.8 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.   

Cincinnati is 24-3 SU on the season, including a perfect 16-0 SU at home.  The Bearcats always dictate a slow pace at home, so Memphis will be at a tactical disadvantage in this game.  Memphis will be unable to play at their preferred fast pace, and their offense will not be able to trade points with the highly efficient Bearcats offense.  Cincinnati is averaging 84.6 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Bearcats’ average win at home has come by 21.8 points per game overall, and by 17.3 points per game in conference play.  We’ll lay the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game at California with an impressive 24-4 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Ducks.  Oregon comes off back-to-back blowout wins at home with the last being a 101-73 throttling of Colorado.  The Ducks have scored 180 total points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 55.6% (65-117) from the field, 47.9% (23-48) from three-point land, and 79.4% (27-34) from the free throw line.  Oregon has struggled mightily with their half court offense on the road in slow-paced games this season; the Ducks are just 1-3 SU when they’ve scored less than 70 points away from home with their lone win coming by just 4 points.  California has held all sixteen of their home opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.

California returns home off three straight road games with their last two ending in defeat.  The Golden Bears will be primed for a peak performance tonight, especially against an upper echelon team like Oregon.  California plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense, especially at home.  The Golden Bears only give up 60.3 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  California’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 72.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field this season.  We’ll take the points with California in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play CALIFORNIA (+).

Xavier comes into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a solid 18-9 SU record, including a 72-70 home win over the Pirates earlier this season.  Xavier outshot Seton Hall 45.6%-43.1% from the field and 40%-27.6% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Xavier was also +8 points from the three throw line which makes their 2-point win look even worse.  The Musketeers are now in a terrible scheduling spot; Xavier will be playing their third consecutive road game while on a 3-game losing streak.  Xavier’s offense is also in poor current form as they’ve averaged just 67 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Seton Hall is also having a solid season; they own a 16-10 SU record, including a terrific 10-2 mark at home.  The Pirates got embarrassed by 22 points (92-70) by Villanova in their last home game.  With a back-to-back home game, and playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance by the Pirates in this game.  Seton Hall’s defense only gives up 68.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Pirates’ offense averages 78.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll lay the points with Seton Hall in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play SETON HALL (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record, but since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 5-10 SU over their last fifteen games.  Unfortunately for Indiana, they were hit with major injuries to their better players.  James Blackmon Jr and Juwan Morgan both missed multiple games while OG Anunoby suffered a season-ending knee injury.  However, Indiana’s play as of late has been vastly improved.  In fact, three of their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so those games could have been wins instead of losses.  Indiana has a very good offense that averages 80.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three point-land.  That strong offense will now face a terrible Iowa defense that gives up 77.6 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.

Iowa comes into this game on a 3-game losing streak, including a 70-66 home loss to Illinois in their last game.  The Hawkeyes’ defense has been their weakness lately as they’ve given up 70 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Iowa has allowed 76.2 points per game on 44% shooting from the field.  Iowa’s offense has also gone missing in their last two games.  Against Michigan State and Illinois, the Hawkeyes have scored just 132 total points while shooting just 35.6% (42-118) from the field and 26.2% (11-42) from three-point land.  Iowa is just beginning their slide while Indiana has shown signs of improvement, so we’ll back the Hoosiers in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play INDIANA (+).

Davidson has bounced back from their 3-game losing streak by winning their last two games.  The Wildcats beat George Washington at home, and their last game was a 79-74 win at Massachusetts.  Davidson will now play on the road once again, and tonight’s game at Richmond is one they’ve had circled since losing 82-80 to the Spiders as 11-point home favorites earlier this season.  Davidson played one of their worst defensive games of the season while allowing Richmond to shoot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 44.4% (12-27) from three-point land.  Don’t expect a repeat performance in tonight’s rematch, especially since Richmond’s offense has averaged just 69 points per game over their last three games.

Richmond comes into tonight’s game on a 2-game losing streak, and we expect another home loss by the Spiders.  Richmond is only 9-5 SU at home this season, so they don’t possess a strong home court advantage.  The Spiders’ defense has been mediocre at home where they are giving up 72.1 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Richmond’s defense is also in terrible current form as they’ve given up 84 and 93 points in their last two games.  Over their last five games, Richmond has allowed 77 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field.  Davidson is simply the better team, and in a revenge spot, we’ll back the Wildcats in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play DAVIDSON (-).

Texas comes into tonight’s game with just a 10-17 SU record on the season, but the Longhorns have been a competitive team.  In fact, eleven of their seventeen losses this season have come by 10 points or less.  One of their close losses came versus West Virginia earlier this season.  Texas gave the Mountaineers all they could handle before losing 74-72 at home as an 11-point underdog.  The Longhorns have been a tough out for West Virginia over the past few years; Texas is 3-2 SU versus the Mountaineers with the two losses coming by just 9 total points.  Texas will once again give West Virginia all they want in tonight’s game, especially since the Longhorns only have four games left to play in their season.

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 9-5 SU and 6-8 ATS over their last fourteen games.  West Virginia’s defense is in poor current form; the Mountaineers have given up 71.2 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them laying this many points, especially against a competitive Texas team.  This is also a terrible scheduling situation for the Mountaineers as they are coming off back-to-back overtime games, including a grueling double-overtime game just two days ago in which three different starters played at least 41 minutes or more.  West Virginia relies heavily on their pressure defense which makes fatigue more of a factor this evening.  We’ll take the generous points with the Longhorns in this game on Monday night.

10* Play TEXAS (+).

Syracuse comes into tonight’s game at Georgia Tech with a 16-11 SU record on the season.  But 14 of their wins have come on their home court.  Syracuse is off back-to-back close losses with their last being a 76-72 overtime home loss to Louisville.  Now the Orange must hit the road once again and play their third road game over their last four games, and their fourth road game over their last six games overall.  Syracuse’s defense is in terrible current form, and they’ve been awful on the road all season.  Over their last five games, Syracuse’s defense has given up 78.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 42.1% shooting from three-point land.  Away from home this season, the Orange are giving up 84.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 44% shooting from three-point land. 

Georgia Tech returns home off a 70-61 loss at Miami, FL in their last game.  Off that loss and back on their home court, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since the Yellow Jackets are 13-3 SU at home this season.  Georgia Tech’s defense has been terrific at home all season; the Yellow Jackets are only giving up 61.3 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  Unlike Syracuse, the Yellow Jackets’ defense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, Georgia Tech’s defense has only allowed 67.8 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll back Georgia Tech in this game on Sunday night.         

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

South Carolina comes into tonight’s game at Vanderbilt with a 20-6 SU record on the season.  But the Gamecocks are not playing good basketball right now.  South Carolina is just 1-2 SU over their last three games, and their lone win came by just 4 points against a poor Mississippi State team.  South Carolina lost as 8.5-point home favorites against Arkansas in their last game, and now they must hit the road and lay points at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks’ defense is in terrible current form, so they are quite vulnerable in this spot.  Over their last five games, South Carolina’s defense has given up 76.8 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.

Vanderbilt has plenty of confidence coming into this game after beating Texas A&M 72-67 at home in their last game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has been good at home all season; the Commodores are averaging 77.8 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  They’ll take advantage of South Carolina’s defense in this game.  Unlike South Carolina, the Commodores’ defense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, Vanderbilt’s defense has only allowed 66.6 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll back Vanderbilt in this game on Saturday night.         

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Virginia hits the road after losing 65-55 at home to Duke on Wednesday night.  The Cavaliers played their worst offensive game of the season as they shot just 36.8% (21-57) from the field and 25% (5-20) from three-point land.  Off that loss, we expect a peak performance by the Cavaliers tonight, especially since they are now in the underdog role.  Virginia is 4-2 SU off a loss this season with all four wins coming by 16 points or more.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 55.5 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three point-land.  Virginia’s offense has been slightly better on the road where they are averaging 68.7 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 42.6% shooting from three-point land this season.

North Carolina has an impressive 22-5 SU record, and the Tar Heels are certainly one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, they’ve struggled against Virginia in the last few meetings because of their style of play.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  North Carolina struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are just 2-3 SU against Virginia over the last few years.  The Tar Heels’ two wins came by just 4 points apiece.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so North Carolina’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.  We’ll take the points with Virginia in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

SMU comes into tonight’s game at Houston with an impressive 23-4 SU record on the season.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Mustangs.  SMU will hit the road after winning big back-to-back home games over Cincinnati and Tulane.  The Mustangs’ game against Cincinnati was a revenge spot that had implications on the regular season title.  SMU had to grind in that game and came out with a 60-51 win.  SMU’s next game was an obvious let down spot as 24-point favorites against a bad Tulane team.  The Mustangs trailed that game 42-27 at the half before out-scoring Tulane 53-33 over the final 20 minutes to win 80-75.  That strong offensive outburst by SMU was an anomaly, and since they only play a 6-man rotation, the energy needed to fuel that comeback will leave them empty for tonight’s game, especially since all five starters played 35 minutes or more.

Houston returns home off back-to-back road wins at Tulane and Tulsa.  The Cougars are playing their best basketball of the season right now; they’ve won five consecutive games by 9 points or more.  Houston was embarrassed by SMU earlier this season when they lost by 21 points, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Houston is 10-3 SU at home where they own a terrific +15.7 point differential on the season.  The Cougars only give up 60.8 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Houston’s offense averages 76.5 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll take the points with Houston in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play HOUSTON (+).

Princeton comes into tonight’s game at Yale on a hot run; the Tigers have won eleven straight games.  Overall, Princeton is 15-6 SU on the season, including a 66-58 home win over Yale earlier this season.  But that game was much closer than the final score indicates.  Princeton actually trailed Yale 54-53 with three minutes left to play, and the Bulldogs were playing without Anthony Dallier who averages 9.6 points on 32 minutes per game.  So even with Yale missing one of their better players, Princeton still trailed the Bulldogs on their strong home court.  That’s not a good sign for the rematch tonight, especially since the Tigers will be playing a fully healthy Yale team with this also being their fourth road game over their last six games overall.

Yale had their 22-game home winning streak snapped in a 75-67 loss to Harvard on Saturday night.  The Bulldogs blew a 36-31 halftime lead after shooting just 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  Yale is a very good three-point shooting team, so that performance was an anomaly.  Yale is 8-1 SU at home where they own a solid +11 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs only give up 68 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Yale’s offense averages 79 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll take the points with Yale in this game on Friday night.

10* Play YALE (+).

Duke has an impressive 20-5 SU record, but tonight’s game at Virginia is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Blue Devils.  Duke will be playing their first road game since last month, and just their third road game over their last eight games overall.  Duke is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Duke struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they lost 78-69 in their lone road game in which they were held to less than 70 points this season.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Duke’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Virginia returns home off an overtime loss at Virginia Tech; they blew a 14-point halftime lead.  Off that loss, we expect a peak performance by the Cavaliers tonight.  Virginia is 4-1 SU off a loss this season with all four wins coming by 16 points or more.  Virginia also gave up more than 70 points for just the third time this season.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 2-0 SU in their following games, winning each game by 17 points while holding their opponents to just 62 and 54 points.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 49.8 points per game on 36.1% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three point-land at home.  Duke’s defense gives up 76.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

St. John’s comes into tonight’s game at Butler on a hot run; the Red Storm are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.  Overall, St. John’s is just 12-14 SU on the season, including a 76-73 home win over Butler earlier this season.  St. John’s outshot Butler 54%-45.9% from the field and they were +7 in points from the free throw line yet they only won that game by 3 points on their home court.  It’s highly unlikely the Red Storm will match that production in this game, especially since Butler’s defense is much better at home.  St. John’s defense has been atrocious on the road where they are giving up 81.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land this season.

Butler returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 71-65 loss at Providence.   The Bulldogs have also lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Butler is 11-2 SU at home where they own a terrific +13.3 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs only give up 66.5 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Butler’s offense averages 79.8 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play BUTLER (-).

Tennessee comes into tonight’s game at Kentucky with a mediocre 14-11 SU record on the season.  The Volunteers somehow beat Kentucky 82-80 earlier this season, but we expect a non-competitive rematch tonight.  Tennessee outshot Kentucky 46.9%-41.7% from the field and 50%-25% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Tennessee is highly unlikely to match that production in tonight’s game, especially since their offense only scored 59 points in their last road game.  In fact, the Vols have scored 70 points or less in half of their conference road games this season, and those games came against inferior opponents compared to the team they’ll face tonight.

Kentucky returns home off a 67-58 win at Alabama.  That was an abnormal game for the Wildcats, especially since it was played at such a slow pace.  Kentucky is 12-2 at home where they always dictate a fast pace, and Tennessee will be more than willing to run with the Wildcats.  That gives Kentucky a tactical advantage, and Tennessee will be unable to trade points with the highly efficient Wildcats offense.  Kentucky is averaging 92.4 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Wildcats’ average win at home has come by 24.3 points per game overall, and by 20 points per game in conference play.  We’ll lay the points with Kentucky in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Baylor comes into tonight’s game at Texas Tech with an impressive 22-3 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bears.  Baylor will be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and their seventh road game over their last eleven games overall.  Baylor beat Texas Tech 65-61 at home earlier this season, but the Bears got a favorable home whistle in that game as they out-scored the Red Raiders 26-9 from the free throw line.  Baylor had 28 free throw attempts while Texas Tech only got 10 attempts from the line.  Baylor has struggled mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games this season; all three losses have come when they’ve scored less than 70 points.  Texas Tech routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Baylor’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Texas Tech is having a good season, and they’ll be on the bubble for a ticket to the Big Dance in March.  They lost by a single point to Kansas in their last game, so that makes tonight’s game against Baylor extremely important.  Texas Tech plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Red Raiders only give up 64.6 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Texas Tech’s offense will face a Baylor defense that has given up 72.3 points per game and 69 total free throw attempts in their last three road games.  We’ll take the points with the Red Raiders in this game on Monday night.

10* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Nevada is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for today’s game at San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 19-5 SU, and they come into this game off their best offense performance of the season.  Nevada crushed in-state rival UNLV by 27 points (104-77) on Wednesday night.  The Wolf Pack shot an incredible 52.8% (38-72) from the field and 52.4% (11-21) from three-point land.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game in which they only scored 57 total points in a 17-point loss at Utah State.  It’s highly unlikely Nevada will match their previous game’s production in this game, especially since they’ll be playing against a slow-paced team that will take them out of their comfort zone.

San Diego State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 76-71 loss at San Jose State.  The Aztecs own a strong +11.2 point differential at home this season.  San Diego State plays at a very slow pace, and they combine that with a stout defense.  The Aztecs’ defense is holding their opponents to just 63.4 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Nevada needs to play fast to be at their best, but they won’t get their preferred pace in this game.  We’ll take San Diego State minus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.         

10* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (-).

Cincinnati comes into today’s game at SMU with an impressive 22-2 SU record, including a 66-64 home win over the Mustangs earlier this season.  Cincinnati outshot SMU 46.3%-40% from the field and 46.2%-39.1% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Cincinnati made 12 three’s in that game which is an abnormal amount for them, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll match that production in this game.  The Bearcats’ offense is significantly worse on the road where they only average 61.9 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field and 28.4% shooting from three-point land this season.

SMU is also having a terrific season; they own a 21-4 SU record, including a perfect 14-0 mark at home.  The Mustangs return home off back-to-back road games, and since they are playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance in this game.  SMU plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Mustangs only give up 55.3 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  SMU’s offense averages 77.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SMU (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game at St. Mary’s with an undefeated 25-0 SU record and the #1 ranking in the country.  The Bulldogs certainly look like one of the best teams in the country, but they are in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against their conference rival.  Gonzaga will be playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game over their last five games, and their sixth road game over their last nine games overall.  Gonzaga’s offense has also scored 85 points or more in their last four games after shooting a combined 54.8% (125-228) from the field in those games.  It’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs will match that production tonight, especially since they’ll be playing against the slowest-paced team in all of college basketball.

St. Mary’s is 22-2 SU on the season, including 13-1 on their home court.  The Gaels are playing their second consecutive home game, so that gives them a scheduling edge, especially considering Gonzaga has been traveling a lot as noted above.  St. Mary’s owns a strong +17.6 point differential at home this season.  The Gaels play at the slowest pace in the country, and they combine that with a stout defense.  St. Mary’s defense is holding their opponents to just 56.5 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 29.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  Gonzaga needs to play fast to be at their best, but they won’t get their preferred pace in this game.  We’ll take St. Mary’s plus the points in this game on Saturday night.          

9* Play ST. MARY’S (+).

William and Mary has been a substantially better team at home this season, going 11-0 SU compared to just 2-11 SU away.  This means the home team is 22-2 SU in all Tribe games this season.  It is not a surprise as William & Mary is a strong offensive team that likes to push the pace and relies heavily on three-point shots.  William & Mary is more comfortable at home as evident by their 93.6 points per game on 55.7% FG shooting, including 45.2% from three-point range this season.  This will be the biggest home game of the year as it is a national TV "Gold Rush" game in which the first 6,000 fans will receive t-shirts and the energy level in the Kaplan Arena will be high.  William & Mary won last year's "Gold Rush" game by 27 points (90-63).

The Tribe also returns home off back-to-back road losses which was preceded by four straight double-digit home wins.  William & Mary blew a 16-point second-half lead at Towson in an 82-80 loss last Saturday and then lost 79-61 two nights ago at Drexel.  It was a major flat spot for William & Mary, especially after just beating the Dragons by 23 points two weeks ago.  The Tribe should bounce back with a solid effort today as head coach Tony Shaver is 23-11 ATS after a SU loss by 15+ points, including 7-1 ATS the past four seasons in that role.  This is also a revenge game for W&M as they lost 77-67 at Charleston last month.  However, William & Mary played that game without their best player, Daniel Dixon, who leads the team with 18.0 ppg and shoots 39% from three-point range this season.  The home team is 7-1 SU/ATS in this series since Charleston joined the CAA three years ago.  This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Cougars as they must travel on one day's rest after blowing a 16-point halftime lead in a 73-72 home loss versus Northeastern on Thursday night.

10* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Kansas comes into today’s game at Texas Tech with an impressive 21-3 SU record.  However, this is another tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks after beating in-state rival Kansas State 74-71 on Monday night.  Kansas outshot Kansas State 48.2%-38.2% from the field and 47.1%-36.4% from three-point land and still only won that game by 3 points.  Kansas is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Jayhawks struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so Texas Tech is not a good match-up for them at all.  The Red Raiders routinely play in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Kansas’ offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Texas Tech is having a good season, and they’ll be on the bubble for a ticket to the Big Dance in March.  A win over Kansas will be big for their resume, so we expect a peak performance in this game, especially since they return home off a road loss.  Texas Tech plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Red Raiders only give up 63.5 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Texas Tech’s offense will face a Kansas defense that has given up 77.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll take the points with the Red Raiders in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 21-3 SU record, and the Ducks certainly look like one of the better teams in the country.  However, Oregon is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at UCLA.  The Ducks have played their last two games at home, and in fact, fifteen of their twenty-one wins this season have come on their home court.  Oregon waxed Arizona 85-58 in their last game after shooting an incredible 65.2% (30-46) from the field and an amazing 64% (16-25) from three-point land.  Oregon’s offense will not repeat that performance tonight, especially since their play on the road has been noticeably worse than at home this season.

UCLA returns home off a 3-game road trip, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance by the Bruins tonight.  UCLA is 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +21.7 point differential this season.  The Bruins are averaging 97 points per game on 54.8% shooting from the field and 44.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  UCLA’s defense is holding their opponents to just 40.8% shooting from the field at home.  UCLA has been waiting for this game since losing 89-87 at Oregon earlier this season; they led that game by 4 points with 20 seconds left before losing.  We’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.          

9* Play UCLA (-).

California will hit the road after playing their last three games at home.  In fact, the Golden Bears have played five of their last seven games on their home court.  California won all three of their recent home games with the last being a 77-66 win over Colorado.  The Golden Bears beat Arizona State 81-65 earlier this season.  But that game was much closer than the final score indicates.  The Sun Devils actually led 61-60 late in the second half before California ended the game on a 21-4 run.  California shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land in that game, and they still trailed Arizona State before rallying back to win.  That’s not a good sign for California tonight in the rematch.

Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road games, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Sun Devils are averaging 90 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  Arizona State will face a California defense that is giving up 74.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  California is just 2-2 SU on the road in conference play with one of their wins coming by a single point (74-73) at USC.  We’ll take Arizona State plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (+).

Florida is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game tonight in Georgia.  The Gators come in off their big 88-66 home win over Kentucky on Saturday night.  Florida got a complete team effort as four players scored 12 points or more while all ten players scored at least 2 points.  That was Florida’s fourth consecutive strong offensive game; they scored 84 points or more in all four games while shooting a combined 47.5% (123-259) from the field and 44% (48-109) from three-point land.  There’s reason to expect regression from the Gators’ offense tonight, especially since they are in a letdown spot.  Florida beat Georgia 80-76 in overtime earlier this season.  That game was played on Florida’s strong home court, and they trailed Georgia by 8 points late in the second half before rallying back to win.  That’s not a good sign for Florida tonight in the rematch.

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses, including a 90-81 overtime loss at Kentucky.  Off those two defeats, the Bulldogs will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially since they’ll be playing with legitimate revenge.  Georgia is 9-3 SU at home where their defense has performed much better this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is holding their opponents to just 66.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  Georgia’s offense is averaging 71.3 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll take Georgia plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play GEORGIA (+).

Kansas comes into tonight’s game at Kansas State with an impressive 20-3 SU record and ranked #3 in the country.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks.  Kansas beat in-state rival Kansas State 90-88 last month.  That game was played on Kansas’ strong home court, and they shot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Despite that strong performance, the Jayhawks still only won the game by 2 points at home.  That’s not a good sign for tonight, especially since Kansas will now be playing on the road with this also being their third game in six days, and their third road game over their last five games.  Kansas’ defense has been subpar this season, especially over their last five games.  The Jayhawks have given up 77 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 42.9% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas State returns home off a 56-54 win at Baylor as 7-point underdogs on Saturday.  The Wildcats will bring that momentum home, especially since this will be just their second home over their last five games.  Kansas State is also playing with legitimate revenge, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Kansas State is 10-2 SU at home where they own a strong +11.4 point differential this season.  The Wildcats are averaging 75.1 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  Kansas State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63.7 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll take Kansas State plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

Auburn began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Tigers have gone just 4-6 SU over their last ten games.  Auburn throttled Alabama 84-64 in the first meeting.  The Tigers shot 50% (24-48) from the field and an incredible 61.5% (8-13) from three-point land.  Auburn just had one of those shooting nights, but don’t expect a repeat performance in the rematch.  Auburn is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Tigers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all, especially on the road.  In two SEC road games in which they were held to less than 70 points, Auburn is 0-2 SU and ATS while losing by 19 and 29 points.

Alabama returns home off a blowout loss (87-68) at Arkansas on Wednesday night.  Back at home and off that embarrassing loss, we expect a strong bounce back by Alabama tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge against their in-state rival.  Alabama plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Crimson Tide only give up 61 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  In eight home games in which they’ve held their opponent to 70 points or less, Alabama is a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  We’ll lay the points with Alabama in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

Illinois State comes into tonight’s game at Wichita State with an impressive 19-4 SU record, including a 76-62 win over the Shockers last month.  However, Illinois State will be without their second leading scorer in this game.  MiKyle McIntosh averages 13.5 points per game, but he had knee injury and isn’t expected back until later this month.  In the first meeting against Wichita State, McIntosh scored 20 points on 77.8% shooting from the field.  Without him on the floor, depth-shy Illinois State will fine the going much tougher on Wichita State’s strong home floor.  The Redbirds’ offense has been in poor current form as well as they are only averaging 67.6 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Wichita State is 20-4 SU on the season, including 12-1 on their home court.  The Shockers return home off back-to-back road games, and with legitimate revenge, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Wichita State owns an incredible +26.7 point differential at home this season.  The Shockers are averaging 88.4 points per game on 50.1% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 61.7 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State beat Illinois State by 16 points at home last season, and we expect more of the same tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers.      

10* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game at BYU with an undefeated 22-0 SU record and the #1 ranking in the country.  The Bulldogs certainly look like one of the best teams in the nation, but they are in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  Gonzaga will be playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their sixth road game over their last ten games overall.  Gonzaga’s offense also scored 96 points after shooting 58.6% (41-for-70) from the field in their last game.  It’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs will match that production tonight, especially since they’ll be playing in altitude against a BYU team that holds one of the strongest home court advantages in all of college basketball.

BYU is 16-7 SU on the season, including 12-1 on their strong home court.  The Cougars are playing their second consecutive home game, so that gives them a scheduling edge, especially considering Gonzaga has been traveling a lot as noted above.  BYU owns an incredible +16.1 point differential at home this season.  The Cougars are averaging 86.9 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  BYU’s defense is holding their opponents to just 37.7% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  Nick Emery is listed as questionable, but it has already been factored into the line and the Cougars are a deep team with Eric Mika being the key player.   BYU has given Gonzaga fits in the last three meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight, so we’ll take the Cougars plus the points in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play BYU (+).

Iowa is 12-10 SU on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU in true road games, and just 1-2 SU in neutral court games.  Iowa played without their best player, Peter Jok (back), in their last game.  The Hawkeyes beat Ohio State 85-72 after shooting 50% (32-64) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  Iowa usually starts four freshman alongside Jok, and off such a big offensive performance, we expect regression tonight, especially on the road.  Overall, Iowa’s offense is only averaging 70.6 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The Hawkeyes only scored 68 points in a 6-point home win over Rutgers earlier this season.  Jok scored 18 of those points, but he is listed as questionable tonight with back spasms.  If Iowa couldn’t generate much offense at home against Rutgers, it’s hard to imagine the Hawkeyes having much success in tonight’s game, with or without Jok.              

Rutgers is also 12-10 SU on the season with nine of their wins coming on their home court.  The Scarlet Knights are primed for a peak performance, especially since their two home losses have come during their last five games.  Rutgers gave Iowa all they could handle earlier this season, and in fact, the Scarlet Knights led that game by 9 points in the second half while holding the Hawkeyes to zero made shots over an 8 minute stretch.  Rutgers has played exceptional defense all season; the Scarlet Knights are only giving up 61.6 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Iowa’s defense is giving up 87.8 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 44.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll back Rutgers in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play RUTGERS (+).

Creighton was well on their way to having a terrific season, but unfortunately they lost their best player (Maurice Watson Jr.) to a season-ending knee injury.  Watson was the engine that made Creighton’s offense run efficiently and smoothly.  The Bluejays have played three game since losing Watson; they’ve gone 1-2 SU with their lone win coming at home over an inferior DePaul team in their last game.  Creighton is now in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Butler.  The Bluejays beat Butler 75-64 at home earlier this season, but they were catching the Bulldogs at the perfect time.  Butler was off back-to-back draining games; a win over #1 Villanova and an overtime win at Georgetown.  Creighton is now the team in a bad spot for the rematch, especially after their offense scored 83 points on 55.8% (29-52) shooting from the field against DePaul.

Butler comes into tonight’s game off a home loss to Georgetown on Saturday night.  That was the Bulldogs first home loss of the season, and it coincided with their worst defensive performance of the season.  Butler gave up 85 points on 63.8% (30-47) shooting from the field and 50% (10-20) shooting from three-point land.  That’s abnormal for Butler considering they only give up 65.8 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Overall, Butler is 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +15.0 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs’ offense is averaging 80.8 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 4-5 SU over their last nine games.  Indiana is now without their best player after James Blackmon hurt his leg in their last game.  Blackmon is Indiana’s best offensive player; he took 28.4% of the shots while scoring 307 points, the most on the team.  Indiana is also without OG Anunoby after he recently suffered a season-ending knee injury.  Indiana is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hoosiers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all, especially without their best offensive player.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Indiana will be hard-pressed to score points.

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important conference game for the Wildcats, especially since this is just their third home game over the last three weeks.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 62.4 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 29.0% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northwestern’s offense will face an Indiana defense that gives up 81.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Sunday night. 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (-).

This is a difficult scheduling situation for Oregon as they must play their second straight road game in just three days in thin air and altitude.  The Ducks played in Utah on Thursday night and now travel to Colorado for this game.  Oregon has been a weaker team on the road this season, winning their games by -15 points less than at home.  The Ducks have previously struggled in the thin air and altitude of Colorado, losing every road game there the past four years, going 0-4 SU with an average loss by -9.3 points per game.  Contrast that to the fact that Oregon is 6-0 SU in all the other head-to-head meetings which weren't played in Colorado and you can see what a difference the thin air and altitude makes.

Colorado is just 11-10 SU this season, but they have been competitive with each of their past three losses coming by 3 points or less, including a pair of overtime losses on the road.  The Buffaloes bounced back with a home win versus OregonState on Thursday and Colorado should carry that momentum into this home game tonight.  Overall, the Buffaloes are 8-3 SU at home this season.  This is a terrible scheduling situation for Oregon in a back-to-back altitude set, so we'll take the points with the Buffaloes as a home underdog tonight.

10* Play COLORADO (+).

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech two weeks ago and followed that up with an 89-87 overtime win at West Virginia as a +16.5 point underdog.  Oklahoma has also been competitive in their past two losses which came in double-overtime and by just one point at Texas.  Overall, the Sooners are 3-1 ATS in their past four games and they remain an underrated team.  The Sooners played a brutal schedule during their earlier losing streak with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury while Kameron McGusty was limited by injury as well.

Florida has been an inconsistent team this season and enters just 1-3 ATS in their past four games.  They might also be without their second leading scorer, Canyon Barry, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  Barry is averaging 12.4 points per game this season.  The Gators were able to beat a bad LSU team without Barry on Wednesday, but Florida struggled when he was injured two games ago versus Vanderbilt as the Gators lost outright as an -11.5 point home favorite.  Florida is in a poor scheduling spot today, while Oklahoma remains an underrated team, so we'll back the Sooners as a home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Tennessee enters this game off back-to-back home wins including an 82-80 upset win versus Kentucky earlier this week as a +10.5 point underdog.  However, those two wins now put the Volunteers in a flat spot for this non-conference home game today.  Tennessee shot 47% from the field (61-for-131) in their past two games, but they are likely to regress this afternoon.  The Vols are only averaging 44.4% FG in all games this season and will now be facing a strong Kansas State defense that is permitting just 64.7 points per game on 41.0% FG shooting this season (versus opponents that average 74.7 ppg and 44.7% FG).  Before their past two wins, Tennessee started the season just 1-5 ATS at home.

Kansas State will be focused for this game after a 70-65 road loss at Iowa State on Tuesday.  The difference in that game was a substantial discrepancy from three-point range as the Cyclones shot 11-for-23 (48%) while the Wildcats shot just 7-for-23 (30%). Kansas State is still 15-5 SU this season and they should shoot better today as they average 37.8% from three-point range, including 38.0% on the road.  The Wildcats also have a solid revenge motive after a close 65-64 loss on this same court two seasons ago. Tennessee is due for a regression, while Kansas State is primed for a strong bounce back effort, so we'll back the Wildcats in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play KANSAS STATE.

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 18-2 SU record, and the Ducks certainly look like one of the better teams in the country.  However, Oregon is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Utah.  The Ducks have played their last three games at home, and in fact, thirteen of their eighteen wins this season have come on their home court.  Oregon is 2-1 SU in true road games, but their two conference away games have come against two of the worst teams in the Pac 12 (Washington and Washington State).  Oregon has been playing without their best player, Dillon Brooks (foot), over the last few games.  He is listed as a game-time decision tonight, and if he doesn’t play, it’s hard to imagine the Ducks leaving Utah with a win.

Utah is 14-5 SU on the season, including 9-2 on their home court.  The Utes return home off back-to-back road wins which were preceded by an 83-82 home loss to UCLA.  The Utes are playing at a much faster pace this season, and they will definitely get their preferred pace against an up-tempo Oregon team.  Utah owns an incredible +15.1 point differential at home this season.  The Utes are averaging 83.7 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  Utah’s defense is holding their opponents to just 68.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Utah has been waiting for this game since losing 88-57 to Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game last season, so we’ll back the Utes in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play UTAH (-).

Kansas is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at West Virginia ranked #1 in the country with an 18-1 record.  The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Mountaineers is simply a bad matchup for Kansas.  In their last six meetings against West Virginia, the Jayhawks are just 2-4 SU, including 0-3 SU on the road.  Kansas will be playing their third road game over their last five games while stepping way up in class.  Kansas will also face 40 minutes of pressure from the Mountaineers who employ a relentless full-court press; the Jayhawks have yet to face a similar team this season.  West Virginia is #1 in the country in both steals and turnover percentage meaning they force their opponents into a lot of mistakes.  That has been a recipe for disaster for Kansas in recent meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight.

West Virginia returns home off a 79-75 loss at Kansas State on Saturday.  The Mountaineers also lost their previous home game to Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites.  Off back-to-back poor efforts, we expect a peak performance by the Mountaineers tonight.  West Virginia is 10-1 SU at home where they own record an incredible +31.3 point differential on the season.  West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 63.1 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field and 29.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 94.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field.  West Virginia matches-up extremely well with Kansas, so we’ll back the Mountaineers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

South Carolina is having a terrific season as they come into this game at Kentucky with a 15-3 SU record.  Two of South Carolina’s three losses have come by just 3 and 2 points, so they’ve proven to be a tough out for their opponents.  South Carolina plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Gamecocks have held sixteen of their eighteen opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, South Carolina’s defense is only giving up 59.2 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  Their defense has traveled well as they only allow 64.2 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Kentucky is 16-2 SU on the season, and the Wildcats are certainly one of the best and most talented teams in the country.  Kentucky is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Wildcats have played at their preferred play in every game this season except against Louisville; they lost that game 73-70.  Kentucky has had a history of struggling mightily when forced to play half court basketball in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  South Carolina routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Kentucky will be put out of their comfort zone.  South Carolina has the better defense, and since we expect them to disrupt Kentucky with their pace of play, we’ll take the points with the Gamecocks on Saturday night. 

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

Michigan State comes into this game at Indiana off a 72-67 loss at Ohio State.  However, the Spartans have had five full days to get over that loss and prepare for Indiana.  The Spartans have been terrific when playing off a loss this season; they are 5-1 SU in that role.  Head coach Tom Izzo is one of the best at game planning for an opponent, so expect Michigan State to be primed for a peak performance in this game.  Michigan State’s defense has been tremendous recently.  The Spartans have given up just 61.6 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That’s a major difference from Indiana’s defense which has allowed 72.4 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 3-4 SU over their last seven games.  Indiana was without Juwan Morgan (foot) in their last game, and according to head coach Tom Crean, Morgan is “very doubtful” to play in this game.  Indiana also lost OG Anunoby to a season-ending knee injury in their last game.  Anunoby and Morgan are two starters that are key ingredients to Indiana’s success, and without either on the court, it’s hard to envision the Hoosiers having enough to beat Michigan State by margin.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Michigan State plus the points on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Iowa State comes into this game at Oklahoma on a 2-game losing streak, and we expect another loss for the Cyclones.  Iowa State has an 11-6 SU record on the season, but the Cyclones are just 1-3 SU in true road games, including 1-2 in conference road games.  Iowa State’s wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Savannah State, Mount St. Mary’s, The Citadel, Nebraska Omaha, and Mississippi Valley State just to name a few.  Iowa State’s defense has given up 170 total points in their two conference road games this season.  Overall, the Cyclones’ defense is allowing 78.2 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech last Saturday night.  The Sooners followed that up with an 89-87 overtime win at West Virginia on Wednesday night.  We had Best Bet selections on Oklahoma in both of those games, and we’ll come right back and play them once again in this game.  The Sooners played a brutal schedule during their losing streak with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury while Kameron McGusty was limited by injury as well.  Oklahoma’s recent play has been much improved, so we’ll back the Sooners in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play OKLAHOMA.

Memphis has a winning 13-5 SU record on the season, but the Tigers have played just four true road games so far this season.  Memphis is 2-2 SU in those games with one of those wins coming  in overtime against a short-handed Oklahoma team last month.  Memphis has padded their record with wins over inferior teams like Texas Rio Grande Valley, Savannah State, McNeese State, Jackson State, and Incarnate Word to name a few.  Aside from holding a terrible Tulane team to just 59 points on the road, Memphis has given up 260 total points in their other three road games.  Overall, the Tigers’ defense is allowing 79.8 points per game away from home this season.

Houston returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 77-70 loss at Central Florida.  They also lost their previous home game before going out on the road, so we expect a peak performance tonight by the Cougars.  Houston owns a strong +17.9 point differential at home where they are 7-2 SU.  The Cougars’ offense is averaging 77.9 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field at home.  Houston’s defense is only allowing 60 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field on their home court.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play HOUSTON (-).

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday night.  The Sooners had excuses for losing seven straight games.  They played a brutal schedule during that stretch with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury.  He has since returned for Oklahoma’s last two games.  Oklahoma also has Kameron McGusty back on the court fully healthy: “I'm 100 percent and have come back to my quick first step and being able to move and be active on the ball.”  Oklahoma’s losing streak can easily be forgiven, and their recent play has been much improved.  

West Virginia caught everybody by surprise when they opened the season with a 12-1 SU record.  The Mountaineers were steamrolling their opponents in those games, but that hasn’t been the case recently.  West Virginia is 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS over their last four games.  The point- spreads have clearly been inflated in their recent games because of their early success, and that’s certainly the case tonight as 17-point favorites over Oklahoma.  West Virginia is averaging 80.3 points per game over their last four games.  That’s 14.8 points per game less than their seasonal average of 95.1 points per game.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them laying this many points, especially against an improving Oklahoma team.  We’ll take the generous points with the Sooners in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Texas Tech is having a much better season than expected under new head coach Chris Beard.  The Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma with a 13-3 SU record.  However, Texas Tech is just 1-2 SU in true road games, including 0-2 in conference road games.  The Red Raiders’ wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Houston Baptist, North Texas, Eastern Kentucky, Idaho State, Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, and Longwood just to name a few.  Texas Tech’s defense has given up 220 total points in their three true road games this season.  Overall, the Red Raiders’ defense is allowing 73.3 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Oklahoma is desperate for a win after losing their last seven games.  However, the Sooners played a brutal schedule during that stretch with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury.  He returned for Oklahoma’s last game, and all reports indicate he’s back to full strength.  Oklahoma also has Kameron McGusty back on the court fully healthy: “I'm 100 percent and have come back to my quick first step and being able to move and be active on the ball.”  Oklahoma’s recent losing streak can easily be forgiven, and we expect their best game in a long while.  We’ll back the Sooners in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 17-1 SU record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  However, UCLA is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Utah.  The Bruins just won 104-89 at Colorado on Thursday night.  Now they are on the dreaded back-to-back altitude road set, and Pac 12 teams have been awful in this situation over the last few years.  UCLA also played one of their best offensive games of the season in Colorado while scoring 104 points on 56.5% (35-62) shooting from the field and 61.3% (19-31) shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins will be hard-pressed to match that production, especially considering the poor scheduling spot they are in.

Utah is 12-4 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Their lone home loss came to Butler in an extremely slow-paced game.  The Utes are playing at a much faster pace this season, so they will definitely get their preferred pace against an up-tempo UCLA team.  Utah owns an incredible +17.1 point differential at home this season.  The Utes are averaging 83.9 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Utah’s defense is holding their opponents to just 66.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Utah’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.          

9* Play UTAH (+).

Washington State has a winning 9-6 SU record on the season, but the Cougars are not a very good team.  Washington State’s wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Montana State, Central Washington, Montana, Utah Valley, and Sacramento State to name a few.  The Cougars are 2-1 SU in conference play, but one of those wins came unexpectedly as 12.5-point road underdogs at in-state rival Washington.  Washington State’s other conference win came against Oregon State who is one of the worst teams in the Pac 12.  The Cougars’ defense has given up 247 total points in three true road games this season.  Overall, Washington State’s defense is allowing 74 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Stanford is desperate for a win after losing their last four games.  However, the Cardinal played four of the best teams in the conference in those games, so the losses were not unexpected.  Stanford also lost leading scorer Reid Travis to a shoulder injury two games ago, so the team was  also learning to play without him.  Stanford returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their last two home games, we expect a peak performance tonight by the Cardinal.  Stanford’s offense has scored 79 points or more in three of their last four home games, and they get an easy matchup tonight against Washington State’s poor defense.  Stanford’s defense is also taking a major step-down in offensive class, so expect that unit to play one of their best games of the season.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinal in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play STANFORD (-).

Butler is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Creighton.  The Bulldogs beat #1 Villanova 66-58 as home underdogs last Wednesday night, and then they were extremely fortunate in winning at Georgetown as road favorites in overtime on Saturday afternoon.  Butler trailed that game with just 9 seconds to play before forcing overtime.  So off back-to-back big games, the Bulldogs will be on the road once again while stepping up in class from their last game.  Butler shot 50% (10-20) from three-point land against Georgetown, and they still needed overtime to win.  The Bulldogs were also +10 points (25-15) from the free throw line in that game.  That’s a bad sign for Butler heading into this game, so we expect a clunker from the Bulldogs tonight.

Creighton returns home off back-to-back road wins at St. John’s and at Providence.  The Bluejays are 15-1 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Creighton’s lone home loss came in their last home game against Villanova, so we expect a strong bounce back effort in front of their fans tonight.  Creighton’s offense has been terrific at home this season as they are averaging 84.8 points per game on 52.8% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton is catching Butler at the perfect time, and we expect a statement win by the Bluejays, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play CREIGHTON (-).

Mississippi State is having a good season so far as they come into tonight’s game at Arkansas with a 10-4 record.  The Bulldogs played their best game of the season on Saturday afternoon when they beat LSU 95-78.  Mississippi State shot an incredible 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double digits while nine players overall scored points in the game.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 58 points in a 10-point home loss to Alabama.  Three of Mississippi State’s four losses this season have come by 10 points or more, and tonight they will face the best team they’ve seen so far this season. 

Arkansas is 12-3 SU, including 9-1 at home this season.  The Razorbacks return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 97-71 loss at Kentucky.  Arkansas also lost their previous home game, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Razorbacks have been terrific at home where they own a +13.8 point differential on the season.  Arkansas’ offense is averaging 83.7 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas’ defense is holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

NC State is having a good season as they come into today’s game at in-state rival North Carolina with a 12-3 record.  The Wolfpack played their best game of the season on Wednesday night when they beat Virginia Tech 104-78.  However, NC State caught the Hokies off their blowout win of Duke, so they were ripe for the picking.  The Wolfpack shot an incredible 64.1% (41-64) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 63 points in an 18-point road loss at Miami, FL.  In fact, NC State is 0-2 in true road games this season while losing by 18 and 14 points against lesser teams than they’ll face today. 

North Carolina is 13-3 SU, including a perfect 7-0 at home this season.  The Tar Heels haven’t played their best basketball in their last two games, but both of those games were on the road.  With a return home, we expect a peak performance by the Tar Heels today.  North Carolina has been incredible at home where they own a whopping +27.6 point differential on the season.  The Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 89.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.  North Carolina will now face a NC State defense that is giving up 84.5 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land on the road.  North Carolina’s defense is holding opponents to just 62.1 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 26.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Butler comes into today’s game at Georgetown after beating #1 Villanova 66-58 on Wednesday night.  We had a Best Bet winner on Butler in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Bulldogs off that win.  Butler trailed 31-27 at the half, but they played ferocious defense in the second half while holding the potent Villanova offense to just 27 points.  Butler’s defense held the Wildcats to just 37.3% (19-51) shooting from the field and 23.1% (6-26) shooting from three-point land.  That win by the Bulldogs was not surprising at all because they match-up extremely well versus Villanova.  Butler plays at a slow pace, and their style simply frustrates an up-tempo offense.  That won’t be the case against Georgetown in this game as the Hoyas also prefer to play slow, half-court basketball.

Georgetown is just 8-7 SU, but five of their wins have come on their home court.  The Hoyas return home off a 76-70 road loss at Providence, and they also lost their last home game to Xavier as 3.5-point underdogs.  Georgetown is in a prime situational spot today, so we expect a peak performance.  The Hoyas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 67.6 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land.  Georgetown’s offense is averaging 83 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Georgetown has a lot of motivation today, so we’ll back the Hoyas in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGETOWN (+).

Minnesota comes into this game off back-to-back draining overtime games.  The Gophers came up short in a 75-74 home loss to Michigan State before bouncing back with a 91-82 win at Purdue as 13.5-point underdogs.  Minnesota will now play back-to-back road games for the first time this season, and off their last two big efforts, we expect regression tonight.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gophers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Minnesota will be put out of their comfort zone.

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important conference game for the Wildcats, especially since they are back home off a 61-52 loss at Michigan State.  Northwestern’s other two losses this season have come against Butler by 2 points and to Notre Dame by 4 points.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 62.7 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northwestern is simply the better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (-).

Oklahoma State has a good looking 10-3 SU record on the season, but the Cowboys have played a very easy schedule so far.  Oklahoma State’s opponents include Campbell, Central Arkansas, New Orleans, Rogers State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Texas A&M CC.  Those teams account for six of their ten wins this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 91.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  But those numbers have a lot to do with the inferior opponents they’ve played.  The Cowboys will now face a real defense in Texas tonight, and we expect Oklahoma State to have their worst offensive game of the season.       

Texas is just 6-7 SU, but all six of their wins have come on their home court.  The Longhorns return home off a 65-62 road loss at Kansas State, and they also lost their last home game to Kent State as 12.5-point favorites.  Texas is in a prime situational spot tonight, so we expect a peak performance.  The Longhorns’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land.  Texas’ offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field at home.  Texas has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler ranked #1 with a perfect 14-0 record.  However, the Wildcats will face a stiff challenge tonight in the Bulldogs.  Villanova has been unable to beat Butler by margin over the last three years.  They’ve won all three games but the scores were 76-73 in overtime, 60-55, and 68-65.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  Villanova wants to get out and run in transition, but Butler has forced them into half-court games in the last three meetings.  Villanova’s inability to play their style of basketball has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler is 12-2 SU, including a perfect 8-0 at home this season.  Butler’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 61 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been excellent at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been worse on the road this season; they are allowing 67.7 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they matchup well against Villanova, we’ll back the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina opened conference play with an ugly 75-63 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon.  The Tar Heels played their worst game of the season while shooting just 33.3% (24-72) from the field and 19.2% (5-26) from three-point land.  North Carolina was also quite sloppy with the ball as they committed 20 turnovers while only getting to the free throw line 14 times.  North Carolina’s players admitted they took their opponent for granted: “It was a bigger game for them,” Joel Berry said.  “We thought that we were going to come in here and just win because it’s Georgia Tech.”  Off such an embarrassing performance, we expect North Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort just like they’ve done all season.  In two games following a loss this season, the Tar Heels are a perfect 2-0 while winning those games by 45 and 43 points.

Clemson comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 11-2 SU record.  However, the Tigers have played an exceptionally easy schedule with their toughest opponent being Xavier; Clemson lost that game 83-77.  Clemson was trailing Wake Forest by 10 points with less than 5 minutes to play in their last game before ending the game on a 15-0 run for the comeback win.  That’s not a good sign heading into this game against North Carolina, especially since Clemson is taking a monumental step-up in class.  Clemson has solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played a schedule loaded with mediocre offenses.  Now they will face one of the best offensive teams in the country, and they are catching them off an ugly offensive performance.  North Carolina will have too much offense for Clemson, so we’ll back the Tar Heels in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Baylor comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 12-0 record, and the Bears have certainly earned some of those wins.  Baylor has already beaten Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville, and Xavier; no team in the country has a better resume right now.  However, Baylor has played cupcakes in their last three games, so they’ve had no competition heading into conference play.  Baylor is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bears are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oklahoma.  Baylor has scored 76 points or more in six straight games, but that streak is in jeopardy tonight.  The Bears will also be playing their first true road game of the season, and that makes this is a prime spot to play against them.

Oklahoma has struggled to a 6-5 SU record so far this season, but the Sooners have been a competitive bunch.  Four of Oklahoma’s five losses have come by 6 points or less with two of those defeats coming in overtime.  Oklahoma is 4-1 at home where they own a +17.2 point differential this season.  The Sooners are averaging 88.4 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Oklahoma’s defense is holding their opponents to a solid 42% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oklahoma’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Sooners in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 13-0 record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  UCLA is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bruins are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oregon.  UCLA has scored 82 points or more in twelve of their thirteen games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Bruins have faced a slew of teams that prefer up-tempo basketball, but that won’t be the case tonight against Oregon who plays a much slower, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  UCLA will also be playing just their second true road game of the season which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Oregon is 11-2 on the season.  The Ducks are a perfect 8-0 at home; they've won 33 consecutive games on their home court.  Oregon owns an incredible +20.7 point differential at home this season.  The Ducks are averaging 83.4 points per game on 49.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  Oregon’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62.7 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 26.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oregon’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Ducks in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play OREGON (+).

Kentucky comes into tonight’s game with a 10-1 record, and the Wildcats certainly look like the most talented team in the country.  Kentucky is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Wildcats are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against their in-state rival.  Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in ten of their eleven games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Wildcats just scored 103 points on North Carolina on Saturday, but the Tar Heels are also a team that prefers an up-tempo game.  That won’t be the case tonight against Louisville who plays a slow, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  Kentucky is also playing their third consecutive road game tonight which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Louisville is also 10-1 on the season.  The Cardinals will be playing their fourth consecutive home game, so they definitely have the scheduling advantage over Kentucky.  Louisville is a perfect 7-0 at home where they play a sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents.  They’ve held all seven of their home opponents to 71 points or less as they tend to control tempo on their strong home court.  Louisville’s defense is holding their opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 32.9% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Louisville’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Middle Tennessee State comes into this game with a 10-1 record, but their lone loss did come against an inferior Tennessee State team.  The Blue Raiders upset Michigan State in the NCAA tournament last season, and they return just about everybody from that team.  There’s no doubt that Middle Tennessee State is a very good team, but this is a terrible scheduling spot for them, especially against a very good VCU team.  The Blue Raiders will be playing their third game in nine days with two of those games coming on the road.  This will also be their fourth true road game in their last five games, and their seventh away game in their last eight games overall.

Virginia Commonwealth snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 67-64 win at Old Dominion last Saturday.  The Rams return home for this game; they lost their last home game in overtime to Georgia Tech.  VCU has had a week to prepare for this game, so we expect a peak performance on their home court tonight.  The Rams won 62-56 at Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites last season, so the fact they are laying a point less at home to the same team doesn’t make much sense.  VCU owns a strong +15.6 point differential at home where they are averaging 78.8 points per game on 52% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close for awhile, but we expect VCU to wear down Middle Tennessee State and win by a comfortable margin in the end.

9* Play VCU (-).

This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge, but Northwestern will have the crowd edge.  Dayton is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Flyers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Dayton will be put out of their comfort zone.  The Flyers have scored less than 70 points in two games so far this season, and they’ve gone 1-1 SU in those games.  In the game they won, Dayton shot just 40.7% (22-54) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land, so they were extremely fortunate in getting that win.  

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important out-of-conference for the Wildcats in that regard, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Northwestern has two losses by a combined 6 points on the season; they lost at Butler by 2 points and lost to Notre Dame by 4 points on a neutral court.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 63.4 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  We expect Northwestern to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll back the Wildcats on Saturday night. 

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Utah is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Utes are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Larry Krystkowiak led the team to 27 wins before losing to eventual National Champion Duke in the Sweet 16.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Utah lost four starters from that team, and numerous players decided to transfer as well.  Utah has a good-looking 6-1 SU record so far this season, but they’ve played every one of those games at home against inferior competition.  Their lone loss came by 9 points at home to Butler who is a weaker version of the Xavier team they’ll face tonight on the road.  Utah is making a long trip to Cincinnati for this out of conference game, and since this will be their first true road game of the season, we expect the Utes to get exposed.

Xavier is built to win right away as they return four of their top six scorers from last year’s 28-win team that was a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The Musketeers return home off back-to-back road losses at Baylor and Colorado, so they will be primed for a peak performance tonight.  Xavier’s offense is averaging 79.8 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Utah just allowed 80 points to Utah Valley and 84 points to Montana State on their home court, so Xavier’s offense will score at will in this game.  The Musketeers are the superior team by a wide margin, so we expect Xavier to win this game by 20 points or more on Saturday night.  

10* Play XAVIER (-).

UNLV had a tumultuous offseason after hiring Chris Beard as their new head coach.  After accepting the job, Beard had a change of heart and left for the head job at Texas Tech.  UNLV pursued others, and after many passes, they settled on former New Mexico State coach Marvin Menzies.  The team is in flux right now, so don’t put too much stock into their 5-2 SU record.  The Rebels have played a woeful schedule with six of their seven games coming on their home court.  Tonight’s trip to Arizona State will expose UNLV for what they are; a mediocre team at best.  UNLV will also be without their second leading scorer tonight as Christian Jones (14 ppg) is out after suffering a foot injury in their last game.  “He was probably our best player statistically,” Menzies said.  “Until we get him back, it’s all hands on deck.”

Arizona State comes into this game off an embarrassing 115-69 loss to Kentucky.  The Sun Devils had no chance of beating the Wildcats, but head coach Bobby Hurley was disgusted by his team’s effort in that game: “I’ll never tolerate losing that way or accept losing that way.”  Hurley said his team has a ‘circle the wagons’ type of effort coming tonight, and they get the perfect opponent at the perfect time.  The Sun Devils are averaging 83.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State will get their preferred fast pace against UNLV, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Saturday night.         

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

North Carolina is a perfect 7-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in six of those seven games.  However, aside from Wisconsin, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking another jump-up in class tonight versus Indiana.  North Carolina is also coming off their trip to Hawaii where they won the Maui Invitational, and historically, these teams underperform in their first couple of games back on the mainland.  North Carolina will also be playing a difficult true road game in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are 6-1 SU versus Top 5 teams under head coach Tom Crean since 2011.     

Indiana is 4-1 on the season, including a 103-99 overtime win against a very good Kansas team in their season opener.  The Hoosiers have had this game circled since losing 101-86 to North Carolina in the NCAA tournament last season.  “I remember,” said Juwan Morgan.  “I see that every day. Seeing that motivates me. Like, that can’t happen again. We have to come out and set a tone as far as who’s gonna hit who first. We’ve got to be ready to fight.”  Indiana has the offense to trade points with North Carolina; the Hoosiers are averaging 88.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take Indiana plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play INDIANA (+).

Houston is primed for big things this season, and anything less than a NCAA tournament appearance would be considered a disappointment.  The Cougars are in their third year under head coach Kelvin Sampson, and with three starters and eight contributing players returning from last season’s 22-win team, Houston has no excuses.  The Cougars come into tonight’s game at LSU with a perfect 5-0 record, and we expect another big win tonight.  Houston has won four of their five games by 27 points or more.  The Cougars are averaging 85.2 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 45.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has also been strong while holding their opponents to just 58 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 25.7% shooting from three-point land.

LSU was supposed to have a big season last year with Ben Simmons on the court.  The results were a disaster even with a 19-14 record, and the team ultimately declined a post-season tournament invite to the NIT.  Head coach Johnny Jones is on the proverbial hot seat, and with little talent on hand, the Tigers are projected to finish much worse than last season.  LSU is 4-2 on the season, but they were thoroughly embarrassed by Wichita State and VCU in their two losses.  LSU lost 105-98 in overtime to Houston last season, but Simmons, Keith Hornsby, and Tim Quarterman combined to score 72 of their 98 total points in that game; all three have departed.  LSU also got out-rebounded 44-32, including 16-9 on the offensive glass.  Houston is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cougars in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HOUSTON (-).

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 73-57 win over Georgetown last night.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Badgers in that game, and we’ll come right back with them tonight.  Wisconsin is a deep team that is built to succeed in tournament play, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s third game in three nights.  Wisconsin returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.2 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.  The Badgers also play at a very slow tempo, and that will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

North Carolina is a perfect 6-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in every game.  However, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking a monumental step-up in class tonight versus Wisconsin.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  Last season, North Carolina went just 3-2 SU when held to less than 70 points with two of their three wins coming by 4 points or less.  Wisconsin’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN (+).

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 74-62 win over Tennessee yesterday afternoon.  The Badgers had eight players play 14 minutes or more, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s back-to-back set.  Wisconsin will also be playing this game with legitimate revenge after losing 71-61 to Georgetown in Madison Square Garden last season.  The Badgers returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.

Georgetown improved to 2-2 on the season after upsetting Oregon 65-61 as 9-point underdogs yesterday afternoon.  The Hoyas were fortunate that Oregon’s best player, Dillion Brooks, was limited to just 13 minutes because of injury.  Georgetown also benefitted from the pace of play as they were able to slow down the up-tempo Ducks while taking them out of their comfort zone.  That won’t be the case tonight as Wisconsin plays the same slowdown style, and the Badgers are simply a much better team than the Hoyas.  Georgetown is also depth shy as six of their seven rotation guys played 22 minutes or more in yesterday’s game.  We’ll lay the points with Wisconsin in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

This game will be played on a neutral court in Florida.  Northern Iowa returns two starters and three key reserves from last year’s 23-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Panthers beat North Carolina last season, and they also beat a very good Wichita State team twice.  Northern Iowa has a terrific program under head coach Ben Jacobson, and he runs a ‘plug and play’ system.  Northern Iowa plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Panthers have historically played at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with excellent defense.  Northern Iowa has held their two opponents this season to a total of 100 points on 41.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  

Oklahoma made the Final Four last season, but they did so with a trio of seniors that started 105 consecutive games together.  All have departed, including the Sooners’ best player, Buddy Hield.  The Sooners are traveling an unfamiliar path this season, and head coach Lon Kruger knows that: “It will be a new squad, a new identity. They have to establish their own way.”  Oklahoma is 2-0 on the season, but they beat two inferiors teams, Northwestern State and Tulane.  Oklahoma is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Sooners like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but Oklahoma will not get their preferred style of play against Northern Iowa tonight.  We’ll take the points with Northern Iowa in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

This game will be played in Madison Square Garden, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Kansas comes into this game off a 103-99 overtime loss to Indiana four days ago.  The Jayhawks were not sharp at all on either end of the court in that game, but we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Kansas shot just 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land while Indiana shot 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  That’s -24 points for the Jayhawks from beyond the arc, yet they only lost by 4 points in overtime.  Kansas is a loaded team this season, and they have tremendous depth on the perimeter and inside the paint, and the latter advantage over Duke will be a major factor in tonight’s game.

Duke is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 80 points.  However, the Blue Devils played two inferior opponents in Marist and Grand Canyon.  Duke is taking a huge step-up in class tonight, and we expect the Blue Devils to lose their first game of the season.  Duke is playing shorthanded in the paint right now as 5-star recruits Harry Giles (knee) and Marques Bolden (leg) will be in street clothes tonight because of injuries.  The Blue Devils are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against Kansas in this game.  We’ll take the points with Kansas in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play KANSAS (+).

Drexel is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Dragons are coming off an injury-riddled 6-25 season, and head coach Bruiser Flint was let go.  In steps former Army head coach Zach Spiker, and he has a major task on his hands.  Drexel is extremely young with newcomers all over the roster; only three seniors this season.  The Dragons are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  “This is circumstance and happens in transition,” Spiker said.  “It’s nobody's fault. I don’t know that Year One will reflect what we’re trying do. This season will be about teaching the style. Our depth will be one of our bigger challenges throughout the season.”

Monmouth is built to win right away as the majority of their roster returns from last year’s 29-win team that made the NIT tournament.  The Hawks averaged 79.5 points per game last season while shooting 43.5% from the field and 36.6% from three-point land.  Monmouth is also a good free throw shooting team (76.8%) which helps them extend leads.  Monmouth is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “We have a lot of kids this year, we have more guys than we’ve ever had,” head coach King Rice said.  “We’re older and now we have six seniors. It’s exciting, it's been fun so far. It’s fun to have a mature team that is as hungry as they’ve ever been.”  Monmouth is the superior team, so we expect them to win this game by a big margin on Friday night.

10* Play MONMOUTH (-).

Villanova and North Carolina were the two most impressive teams throughout the tournament, so this championship game is deserving by both teams.  Villanova is an elite team on both ends of the court as they average 1.17 points per possession on offense, and only allow 0.93 points per possession on defense.  Overall, Villanova averages 78 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats score 33.4% of their points from three-point land, and that matches-up extremely well against North Carolina’s defense that allows 33.1% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s defense held all five of their tournament opponents to 69 points or less while allowing an average of just 60.6 points per game.  Villanova held those five opponents to 42% (115-274) shooting from the field and 31.8% (34-107) shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina also cruised thru their tournament opponents; the Tar Heels won all five of their games by 14 points or more.  However, North Carolina faced the easier path to the championship game as their opponents only averaged an 81.8 on my power ratings.  To compare, Villanova’s opponents averaged an 86.6 on my power ratings.  So even though both teams were impressive, Villanova did it against the much stronger competition.  North Carolina’s offensive strength is their inside scoring as 61.5% of their points scored come from 2-point range.  That was a major match-up edge for the Tar Heels in their last game against Syracuse, but it will be a major disadvantage against Villanova tonight.  Only 49% of the points scored on the Wildcats’ defense come from 2-point range.  Villanova’s defensive weakness is allowing 33.3% of the points scored on them to come from 3-point range, but only 19.7% of North Carolina’s points come from beyond the arc.  We’ll take the points with Villanova in the title game on Monday night.

10* Play VILLANOVA (+).

Syracuse shocked everybody once again in this tournament when they beat #1 seed Virginia last Sunday night.  The Orange trailed by 14 points with 9 minutes to play before rallying for the upset win.  Syracuse beat a poor Dayton team in their tournament opener, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse before another big comeback against Virginia.  So the Orange essentially had four wins handed to them, and here they are in the Final Four.  Now they will face North Carolina for the third time this season; the Orange are 0-2 against the Tar Heels.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.5% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game.  The Orange shot 29% (9-31) from three-point land in their home loss to the North Carolina, and just 25% (5-20) in their second loss in Chapel Hill.  A repeat of those performances tonight, and Syracuse will get run out of the gym.  

North Carolina has played tremendous basketball throughout the tournament.  The Tar Heels have won every game by 14 points or more while scoring 83 points or more in each game.  Syracuse’s only hope in this game is to slow it to crawl, but they couldn’t do that in the two earlier meetings this season when North Carolina scored 84 and 75 points.  North Carolina is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.20 points per possession while only giving up 0.94 points per possession.  Overall, North Carolina averages 83 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field.  North Carolina’s defense is only allowing 69.9 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field.  The Tar Heels’ offensive strength is shooting from 2-point range (61.1% of their points), and inside scoring is how to beat Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

San Diego State was expected to regress this season.  The Aztecs started the season with two freshmen and a sophomore, and they had another freshman come off the bench.  San Diego State overachieved greatly this season, and the Aztecs were on the bubble for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  San Diego State often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  San Diego State has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.  The Aztecs’ best offense comes from getting to the free throw line as 23.6% of their point scored come from the stripe.  However, George Washington doesn't foul much, and only 16.8% of the points scored on them come from the free throw line.  

George Washington was ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials had won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  The Colonials come into tonight’s game with 26 wins, including victories over Virginia, VCU, and Seton Hall.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Tuesday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

BYU comes into tonight’s game against Valparaiso with a respectable 26-10 record, but they’ve been fortunate in their last couple of games to reach Madison Square Garden.  BYU won their last two home games in this tournament by short margins; they only beat Virginia Tech by 3 points and Creighton by 6 points.  BYU usually dominates opponents that are not used to playing on their home court, so the close victory margins are certainly concerning.  BYU’s best player, Kyle Collinsworth, is just getting over the flu.  He lost 12 pounds, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be at his best for tonight’s game.  “I didn’t pick up a basketball for three and a half days,” he said.  “Friday was when I got my appetite back and started eating again. It’ll have an effect on how I play on Tuesday.”  BYU has a terrific offense, but the Cougars have a terrible defense that allows 76.2 points per game away from home.  BYU gives up 1.00 points per possession, and they are at a serious defensive disadvantage in this game.

Valparaiso played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso comes into this game with an impressive 29-6 record on the season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +11.7 point differential, and they won all three of their NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63.5 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  BYU’s head coach Dave Rose said: “We’re at our best when the games are in the 80s or high 70s. Valparaiso is at their best when the game is in the high 50s and 60s.”  Valparaiso will be able to control the pace in this game, and that will put BYU out of their comfort zone.  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Syracuse is playing with house money right now as the Orange should have never been an at-large selection for this tournament.  Just because Syracuse won three games to reach the Elite 8 does not justify the committee’s decision to give the Orange a #10 seed over more deserving teams.  Syracuse beat an equally poor Dayton team, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse on Friday night.  So the Orange essentially had three wins handed to them, but tonight they are taking a big step-up in class against a Virginia team that is superior on both ends of the court.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.8% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  But only 48.9% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game. 

Virginia already beat Syracuse 73-65 back in January.  As noted above, Syracuse needs to shoot a high percentage from 3-point land to compete with Virginia.  The Orange shot 43.3% (13-30) from beyond the arc in that game and they still lost by 8 points.  Virginia held Syracuse to just 38.9% (21-54) shooting from the field while the Cavaliers shot 56.8% (25-44) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land on Syracuse’s trademark 2-3 zone.  Those shooting percentages are an indication that Virginia has a clear understanding of how to attack the Syracuse defense.  Virginia’s offense scores 56.6% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against Syracuse’s defense as 50.6% of the points scored on the Orange come from inside the arc.  The Cavaliers’ have an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Virginia is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Sunday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Villanova comes into this game with a 32-5 record after steamrolling their three opponents in the NCAA tournament.  Villanova’s three wins have come by 30, 19, and 23 points.  The Wildcats have scored 265 points on 59.9% (97-162) shooting from the field and 53.2% (33-62) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting is next to impossible to maintain, especially against Kansas who allows just 0.92 points per possession.  Overall, the Jayhawks give up just 67.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  Villanova is heavily reliant on making three’s (33.7% of their points scored), but only 27.2% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Villanova only scores 47.1% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.9% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Elite 8 has also been easy as the Jayhawks have won all three games by 12 points or more.  The Jayhawks have yet to play their best game, but there are reasons to expect it tonight, especially since Villanova is highly likely to regress in this game.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Villanova’s average of 1.17 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.8% of their points from 2-point range, so they are not reliant on making three’s like Villanova.  The Jayhawks also own the better defense as Villanova is allowing 0.93 points per possession.  Kansas is the better team, and since Villanova is set to regress sharply, we’ll back the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Notre Dame needed to rally from behind to win their first two tournament games.  The Irish trailed Michigan by 12 points at the half before winning 70-63.  Notre Dame trailed Stephen F. Austin by 5 points with two minutes to play before winning 76-75 on a last-second tip-in.  Notre Dame is barely surviving, and tonight’s game against Wisconsin presents the Irish with a terrible match-up.  Notre Dame doesn’t play at a fast tempo, but the Irish are certainly a much better offensive team when they can get out and run while getting easy baskets in transition.  When the Irish are forced into half-court basketball, their offense struggles mightily.  Notre Dame is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 14.1 points per game.  The posted total of 131 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering this is the lowest posted total on a Notre Dame game this season.

Wisconsin also survived their two tournaments games, but the Badgers faced much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh and Xavier.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 28 of their 34 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  My power ratings made this game a pick, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against a Virginia team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  Iowa State scores 55.5% of their points from 2-point range, but only 48.7% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc. 

Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.5 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball, and Virginia’s style will simply frustrate Iowa State.  The Cavaliers’ offense scores 56.3% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up extremely well against Iowa State’s defense as 54.3% of the points scored on the Cyclones come from inside the arc.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oregon has won their first two tournament games, but the Ducks are still the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should have been a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win over Holy Cross in their first NCAA tournament game.  Oregon then got taken to the brink by St. Joseph’s, and they could have easily lost that game.  Now the Ducks are taking a huge step-up in class against Duke tonight, and we expect their good fortunes to run out.  Oregon’s defensive weakness is defending the three as 30.3% of the points scored on the Ducks come from beyond the arc.  That plays right into Duke’s offensive strength as the Blue Devils score 33.8% of their points from three-point land.

Duke is not the same team that won the national title last season.  The Blue Devils are shorthanded, and they play a limited 6-man rotation because of it.  But tonight’s game against Oregon is actually a really good match-up for the Blue Devils.  Duke owns a potent offense that is averaging 81.5 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke averages an impressive 1.19 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, and my power ratings make the Ducks just 2-point favorites in this game, so we’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play DUKE (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a negative point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.1% of their points scored), but only 27.3% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Maryland only scores 49.4% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.8% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Sweet 16 has been easy as the Jayhawks faced a pair of low-rated teams.  The team hasn’t had to play their best yet, but there are reasons to expect Kansas to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Maryland’s average of 1.14 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.4% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against a Maryland defense that allows 52.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Jayhwaks’ defense only allows 0.92 points per possession compared to the 0.96 points per possession allowed by the Terrapins’ defense.  Kansas is the superior team, and since my power ratings make the Jayhawks 7-point favorites, we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Miami, FL has had an excellent season as the Hurricanes come into this game with a 27-7 record.  Miami had an easy draw in their first game against Buffalo, but then they got a brutal match-up against Wichita State in the second round.  The Hurricanes handled that assignment quite impressively, and we expect their terrific tournament play to continue tonight against Villanova.  The Hurricanes are a veteran group that made it all the way to the NIT finals last season; they lost the championship by 2 points in overtime.  That experience prepared Miami for a deep run in this year’s NCAA tournament, and there’s no reason their run won’t continue onto Saturday.  The Hurricanes own a significant coaching edge in this game with Jim Larranaga over Villanova’s Jay Wright, and that will be even more pronounced with four full days to prepare for tonight’s game.  Miami has an excellent 3-point defense as they only allow 26.5% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s offense is predicated on hitting three’s as 33.8% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  That is a significant match-up edge that favors Miami greatly in this game.

Villanova comes into this game with a 31-5 record.  However, the Wildcats have been a stagnant bunch over the last few years as they always produce impressive win/loss records, but fail to parlay them into tournament success.  Over the last three years, Villanova has been knocked out in either their first or second tournament game.  After winning their first two tournaments games this season, the Wildcats are now in foreign territory.  Villanova got two cupcake draws in their first two games, and they won both games in blowout fashion.  The Wildcats scored 173 points on 58.6% (65-111) shooting from the field and 48.9% (23-47) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting will not continue tonight against a solid Miami defense that is only giving 66.7 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Thursday night.          

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

St. Mary’s had a fantastic season, and there was disbelief by many that the Gaels did not receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Valparaiso with an impressive 29-5 record, but they’ve certainly had some favorable things in their corner to reach that record.  Twenty of St. Mary’s twenty-nine wins have come on their home court.  St. Mary’s has yet to cross the Rocky Mountains this season, so they’ve had little travel involved as well.  The Gaels have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition; they have the 156th rated schedule this season.  St. Mary’s best wins came over Gonzaga twice, and while those wins look good now with the Zags in the Sweet 16, keep in mind Gonzaga was given an #11 seed in the tournament despite beating St. Mary’s in the conference championship game.  St. Mary’s has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.

Valparaiso also played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were also on the bubble of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso has the benefit of playing this game on their home court where they are 16-1 SU this season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +15.5 point differential at home, and they’ve won both NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  St. Mary’s offense is only averaging 68.5 points per game on the road this season.  “Only by winning this whole thing we can erase the sting we have of not making the tournament,” senior Keith Carter said.  “We’re a close knit group and we’re hungry to keep winning games.”  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Oregon crushed an undermanned Holy Cross team by 39 points on Friday night.  That dominating win over an inferior team did nothing to change the fact that Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win in the NCAA tournament.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 52% of their points inside the arc, but only 50.8% of the points scored on St. Joseph’s defense come from 2-point range.  Oregon is simply taking a big step-up in class here, and they are facing a team that plays a physical brand of basketball.

St. Joseph’s plays to the personality of their head coach Phil Martelli.  The Hawks are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court.  St. Joe’s is 28-7 on the season, and Martelli is brilliant in scheming defenses against high-octane offenses.  The Hawks own a potent offense themselves as they are averaging 77.6 points per game.  St. Joe’s averages an impressive 1.13 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, so we’ll take St. Joseph’s plus the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

Xavier cruised to an 18-point win over Weber State on Friday night.  The Musketeers played a perfect game as they shot 48.8% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 100% from the free throw line.  Xavier was able to control tempo in that game as their superior talent forced Weber State into a fast-paced game.  But Xavier is unlikely to do the same tonight against Wisconsin, and that will be a major factor in this game.  The Musketeers need to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  Xavier’s games have averaged 72.9 possession per game this season which was the third highest of all the teams in the tournament this season.  Xavier was held to less than 70 points just four times this season, and they went 2-2 SU in those games.  The posted total of 137 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering Xavier had an average posted game total of 148.8 this season. 

Wisconsin survived a tough match-up against Pittsburgh on Friday night.  The Badgers won that defensive scrum 47-43 as they played a Pittsburgh team that is a mirror image of themselves.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 27 of their 33 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Sunday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Hawaii comes into this game off an impressive win over California on Friday afternoon.  The Warriors are 28-5 on the season, and four of their five losses have come by 8 points or less.  Hawaii plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation with only 2 guys averaging more than 30 minutes per game.  Their tremendous depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, and the team is likely to maintain their current level of play.  Hawaii owns an efficient offense that is averaging 77.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field.  The Warriors are also very aggressive as 23.3% of their points scored come from the free throw line.  Hawaii’s calling card is outstanding defense; they give up just 66.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 26-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a -2.1 point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game in those games.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.9% of their points scored), but only 26.4% of the points scored on Hawaii’s defense come from beyond the arc.  My power ratings make Maryland just a 6-point favorite, so there’s good value on Hawaii in this game.  We’ll take the Warriors plus the points in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play HAWAII (+).

Arkansas-Little Rock made a big comeback and survived two overtimes to beat Purdue 85-83 on Thursday.  Off such a grueling performance, there is obvious concern about fatigue and regression.  However, the way Arkansas-Little Rock plays negates some of those concerns.  The Trojans are a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Iowa State’s style.  Arkansas State is 15-2 SU over their last seventeen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 30-4 on the season, including 16-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70.5 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 61 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Saturday night.                  

10* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale has played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 18-1 over their last 19 games, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale controlled Baylor from start to finish on Thursday, and we expect a similar performance this afternoon against Duke.  Yale has held 19 of their last 23 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.95 points per possession.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.  

Duke beat NC-Wilmington 93-85 on Thursday afternoon.  The Blue Devils shot 53.7% (29-54) from the field, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 43 times.  Despite that, they could only beat an inferior team by 8 points.  That’s not impressive at all, and it shows that Duke is a vulnerable team.  The Blue Devils have limited depth, and they rarely play more than six guys on a consistent basis.  Duke always struggles when forced into half-court basketball, and that will be the case this afternoon.  The Blue Devils went just 1-6 SU when held to less than 70 points this season; they are 0-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread as their lone win came by a single point.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Saturday afternoon.           

9* Play YALE (+).

St. Joseph’s is a decent team that comes into tonight’s game against Cincinnati with a 27-7 record on the season.  However, that record was built upon a very weak schedule that ranks 84th in the country.  To compare, the three other #8 seeds in the tournament played much tougher schedules that ranked #13, #50, and #52 in the country.  St. Joseph’s is a phony #8 seed, and in fact, they would underdogs to every #9 seed based on my power ratings.  The Hawks’ offense is heavily reliant on scoring easy baskets inside the paint as 52.2% of their points come from 2-point range.  St. Joseph’s will have a difficult time scoring consistently in this game against the stout Cincinnati defense that only allows 48.8% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  Overall, the Bearcats’ defense has an effective field goal percentage of 45.3% which ranks them #21 in the country.

Cincinnati is a tough team that comes into this game with a solid 22-10 record.  The Bearcats have three losses in overtime this season, and three other losses by exactly 2 points each.  So Cincinnati could have a much better record, and if those close losses went their way, they’d be 28-4 on the season.  The Bearcats are significantly better than their win/loss record indicates, and that provides a lot of value on them in this game, especially since St. Joseph’s is overvalued as mentioned above.  Cincinnati has a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land.  These two teams are much further apart than the seeds indicate, so we’ll lay the points with the Bearcats in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Holy Cross is fortunate to be in the NCAA tournament after going just 14-19 overall this season.  However, the Crusaders come into tonight’s game against Oregon playing their best basketball of the season.  Holy Cross is on a 5-game winning streak, including Wednesday night’s 59-55 win over Southern.  While there is some concern of long travel on short rest, that concern is mitigated by the style of basketball Holy Cross plays.  The Crusaders play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and in fact, they play at the slowest pace of any team in the NCAA tournament.  Their games only average 64.3 possessions per game, and the makes it extremely difficult for teams to beat them by big margins.  Holy Cross has relied on their defense, and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in regulation time in their last five games.  Overall, the Crusaders allow 69.2 points per game on the season. 

Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  However, teams that play that well in conference tournaments often struggle mightily in their first NCAA tournament game, especially when they are big favorites.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 51.7% of their points inside the arc, but only 47.4% of the points scored on Holy Cross’ defense come from 2-point range.  This is also the lowest posted total (133.5) on an Oregon game this season, and that is a clear indication that this game will be played at a slow pace which benefits Holy Cross.  Even though Oregon lays over Holy Cross talent wise, this is a bad matchup for the Ducks, so we’ll take the big points with the Crusaders in this game on Friday night.   

9* Play HOLY CROSS (+).

Temple is not a tournament quality team.  The Owls went 20-11 on the season, and they are way over-seeded on the #10 line.  Based on my power ratings, Temple is more like a #12 or #13 seed.  The Owls are my lowest rated team on the #10 line, and in fact, they would be at least 4-point underdogs to the three other teams in the #10 pod, and that includes a terrible Syracuse team.  Temple’s offense is terrible, and I don’t expect them to have much success in this game.  Overall, the Owls are only averaging 68.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  Temple’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 64.8 points per game.  The Owls own an effective field goal percentage of just 46.9% which ranks them #292 in the country.    

Iowa was a terrific team early on this season, but the Hawkeyes completely imploded down the stretch.  Iowa went just 2-6 SU over their final eight games of the season, and because of that, the Hawkeyes got a #7 seed.  However, this veteran team is ultra-talented, and based on my power ratings, they are more of a #3 or #4 seed.  Iowa is flying well under the radar, and if they can return to their early season form, the Hawkeyes are an extremely dangerous team.  Iowa has has an efficient offense that is averaging 1.14 points per possession.  Overall, the Hawkeyes average 78.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is simply the much better team, and since my power ratings make them an 8-point favorite, we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Friday afternoon.           

9* Play IOWA (-).

Oregon State and VCU are virtually identical in all statistical categories.  The two teams have almost identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make VCU 3.5-point favorites over Oregon State.  The lone difference between these two teams is in their style of play.  The Beavers like to play a slow, half-court style while VCU loves to play ‘havoc ball’ where they use full-court pressure the entire game.  That style is extremely difficult for most teams to handle, but Oregon State plays a smart brand of basketball that will eliminate VCU’s strongest advantage.  Overall, the Beavers’ offense gets 51.3% of their points from 2-point range.  That matches-up well against VCU’s defense that allows 55.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  That’s one of the worst percentages of any team in the tournament, so Oregon State’s offense holds a significant match-up advantage in this game.      

VCU is no stranger to tournament success, but that was under head coach Shaka Smart.  He left for Texas after last season, so the Rams will be led by first year coach Will Wade.  While he was an assistant under Smart and part of the staff of recent tournament teams, coaches tend to struggle in their first Big Dance.  VCU overachieved this season, and their true colors began to show as the season went on.  The Rams went just 4-3 SU over their last seven games, and that included an ugly loss to George Mason, and losses to questionable tournament teams like Dayton and St. Joseph’s.  VCU’s offensive profile relies heavily on making easy baskets in transition, but that’s going to be difficult in this game.  VCU scores 53.8% of their points from 2-point range, but Oregon State’s defense only allows 48% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Oregon State on Friday afternoon.  

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Wichita State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Shockers are significantly better than a #11 seed.  My power ratings say Wichita State is more like a #4 or #5 seed as they rate even or higher than five of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there’s a bit of value on the Shockers.  Wichita State is an excellent team that is well-suited to succeed in tournament basketball because they have an efficient offense and the best defense of any team in the entire tournament.  That defense was on display on Tuesday night when they held a terrific Vanderbilt offense to just 2 points over the final eight minutes of the game.  The Shockers hold opponents to just 0.90 points per possession.  Wichita State allows just 59.1 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Arizona was a much better team early on this season.  The Wildcats lost starting center Kaleb Tarcezewski and guard Allonzo Trier for a period of time, and the team began to struggle.  But since those guys came back, the team hasn’t been able to get back to their early season form.  The Wildcats closed the season on a 3-3 SU slide as their offense couldn’t get anything going.  Arizona’s offense will continue their struggles tonight against the best defense in the country, especially since the Wildcats score the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, Arizona scores 53.1% of their points inside the arc, but only 43.4% of the points scored on Wichita State’s defense come from 2-point range.  This is a terrible matchup for Arizona, so we’ll back Wichita State in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play WICHITA STATE (+).