-Butler has won back-to-back games after losing 4 of their previous 5 games; on the upswing   
-offense averages 79.3 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 71.4 points per game
-Bulldogs defense only allows 43.9% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.3%

-Marquette is just 2-4 SU over their last 6 games; off a 3-point loss to Villanova; bad spot here
-offense scored 82 points, shot 50.8% from the field and 45.8% from 3 vs Villanova; regress now    
-Golden Eagles defense allows 47.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.5% 

10* Play BUTLER (+).

-Providence comes in off a 20-point blowout loss at Villanova; big drop in class; bounce back
-offense is shooting 46.6% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.5% shooting from the field
-Friars defense allows 31.1% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.7% from three 

-Seton Hall is just 2-3 over their last 5 games after starting the season at 14-2; bad current form
-offense has scored 64 points or less in three of their last five games; now facing a good defense  
-Pirates defense is in awful current form; they’ve allowed 76.1 ppg over their last 8 games

9* Play PROVIDENCE (+).

-Saint Louis is just 1-4 SU in true road games this season; bad spot here after home win
-offense averages 62.9 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 72.0 points per game
-Billikens' defense allows 47.3% shooting from the field on the road vs offenses that shoot 45.5%

-St. Joseph’s returns home off back-to-back road losses; 7-1 SU at home; expect a big effort
-offense averages 75.0 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 71.3 points per game
-Hawks' defense allows 40.0% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 44.5%

9* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (-).

-TCU comes in off a bad loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday; attempted zero free throws; bounce back
-offense is shooting 50.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.4% shooting from the field
-Horned Frogs defense allows 45.9% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% 

-Oklahoma State is 1-3 over their last 4 games; just 13-8 SU overall; not too good of a team
-offense is shooting 32.4% from three vs. defenses that give up 34.6% shooting from three  
-Cowboys defense is in awful current form; allowed 75 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games

10* Play TCU.

-Kansas blew a lead at Oklahoma then won at home; 3rd road game in last 5 games; bad spot
-offense is much worse on the road; average 7.7 ppg less and shoot 4.3% less from the field 
-Jayhawks defense has given up 84 points or more in 3 of their last 4 road games; in bad form  

-Kansas State only lost by a single point (73-72) at Kansas earlier this season; big effort at home 
-offense shoots 48.8% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.7% shooting from the field 
-Wildcats defense allows just 61.5 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 75.2 ppg   

9* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

-Clemson is off an ugly 25-point loss at Virginia; 2nd game without Grantham; expect big effort 
-offense is shooting 47.3% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.2% shooting from the field
-Tigers defense allows 40.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45% from the field 

-Georgia Tech is on an 0-3 SU and ATS run; in terrible current form and facing a focused team
-offense is only averaging 66.1 points per game vs. defenses that give up 70.5 points per game  
-Yellow Jackets defense is in bad current form; they’ve allowed 77.3 ppg over their last 3 games

10* Play CLEMSON (-).

-Bradley has won back-to-back games after 2 straight blowout losses; positive momentum now 
-offense shoots 36.4% from three vs. defenses that only give up 34.4% shooting from three 
-Braves defense allows just 31% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 34.9% from three  

-Indiana State is off a loss, and they’ve lost three home games this season; little home court edge
-offense has faced a terrible slate of opposing defenses this season; big step-up in class here
-Sycamores defense allows 72.4 points per game vs. offenses that also average 72.4 ppg  

9* Play BRADLEY (+).

-Virginia Tech needs to play at a fast pace; 0-2 in conference when held to less than 70 points  
-offense has scored 80 points or more in 5 straight games; won’t come close in a slow pace game 
-Hokies defense allows 36.8% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.2% from 3 

-Notre Dame returns home off a road loss; lost last 2 home games; big effort even with injuries
-offense averages 82.6 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 71.7 points per game   
-Irish defense allows just 40% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.1% 

10* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-TCU comes in off a confidence building home win over West Virginia; momentum carries here
-offense is shooting 50% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.3% shooting from the field
-Horned Frogs defense allows 45.6% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.3% 

-Vanderbilt is 2-6 over their last 8 games; they are just 7-13 SU overall; not a good team at all
-offense is shooting 31.8% from three vs. defenses that give up 33.7% shooting from three  
-Commodores defense is in awful current form; they’ve allowed 76.4 ppg over their last 8 games

9* Play TCU (-).

-Oklahoma is off a big comeback home win vs. Kansas; 3rd road game in last 4 games; bad spot
-offense shot 49.1% (28-57) from the field and 39.1% (9-23) from 3; regression coming here
-Sooners defense allows 84.1 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 78.8 ppg  

-Alabama returns home off a 12-point road loss; 9-1 SU at home; lone loss by 3 points; big effort  
-offense shoots 50.4% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 42.2% shooting 
-Crimson Tide defense allows 38.6% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45%  

9* Play ALABAMA (+).

-Penn State is just 1-3 their last 4 games; close games and 2 in overtime; 4 days off; great spot
-offense shoots 48.1% from the field on the road vs. defenses that only allow 43.7% FG shooting
-Nittany Lions' defense allows just 41.3% from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.5% FG overall

-Ohio State upset Michigan St and hasn’t lost since, but they’ve played bad teams; step-up here
-offense has averaged just 67.5 points in past 4 games; leading scorer Bates-Diop has illness now
-Buckeyes' defense is stepping way up against Penn State’s offense; expect a bad defensive game

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

-Stanford hits the road off back-to-back home games with their last being a 2-point loss; bad spot 
-offense is shooting 35.1% from three vs. defenses that allow 35.2% shooting from three
-Cardinal defense allows 40.7% shooting from 3 on the road vs offenses that shoot 36.6% from 3 

-USC only lost by a single point (77-76) at Stanford 17 days ago; now at home, expect a big win
-offense averages 82.1 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 71.8 points per game   
-Trojans defense allow 42.2% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.6% 

10* Play USC (-).

-St. Joseph’s has 9 losses on the season, but seven of those losses have come by 6 points or less
-offense averages 75.2 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 71.6 points per game
-Hawks defense has given up just 183 points in their last three games; in terrific current form 

-St. Bonaventure is just 1-4 SU  and ATS over their last five games; in terrible current form
-offense is shooting 44.4% from the field vs. defenses that give up 44.5% shooting from the field  
-Bonnies defense is in poor current form; allowed 79.6 points per game over their last 5 games

9* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

-Duke will be playing their 4th road game in their last 6 games; just 2-2 SU last 4 road games
-offense scored 253 points on 50.3% (85-169) shooting in their last 3 games; can’t maintain that
-Blue Devils defense allows 79.7 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 76.4 ppg 

-Wake Forest has lost 5 straight games; 3 were on the road; 2 home losses by 10 and 8 points 
-offense shoots 47.4% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow just 42.5% shooting
-Demon Deacons defense allows 73.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 76.1 ppg 

10* Play WAKE FOREST (+).

-Maryland is 0-3 their last 3 road games; off a home win; 3rd road game in 4 games; bad spot
-offense has scored 69 points or less in their last three road games; expect more of the same here  
-Terrapins defense has given up 250 total points in their last 3 road games; in poor current form

-Indiana returns home off an ugly 28-point road loss; Juwan Morgan is out, but he’s been limited
-offense hits 46.7% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 43.3% shooting from the field
-Hoosiers defense allows 41.9% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.8%

9* Play INDIANA (+).

-Miami FL is just 1-3 over their last 4 games; off a meltdown home loss to Duke; bad road spot
-offense is shooting just 33% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.6% shooting from 3  
-Hurricanes defense has given up 72, 74, and 83 points in their last 3 games; in poor current form

-NC State is 3-1 over their last 4 games; 4th home game over their last 5 games; scheduling edge
-offense hits 49.3% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 43.1% shooting from the field
-Wolfpack defense allows 31.4% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36% from 3

9* Play NC STATE (+).

-St. Mary’s is off a huge upset win at Gonzaga on Thursday; 4th straight road game; terrible spot
-offense shot 56.6% (30-53) from the field and 61.5% (8-13) from 3; major regression coming
-Gaels defense allows 46.8% shooting from the field vs. defenses that shoot 45.5% from the field   

-Pacific has won and covered 4 straight games; in excellent current form; 4 of 5 games at home 
-offense shoots 49.5% from the field at home vs. defense that allow 44% shooting from the field  
-Tigers defense allows 45.5% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.1% from the field   

10* Play PACIFIC (+).

-Memphis beat Tulsa at home 2 weeks ago; trailed at half; shot 50% and only won by 9 points 
-offense averages 62.8 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 70.1 points per game
-Tigers defense gives up 39.9% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35.1% from 3 

-Tulsa has lost 4 consecutive games, but 3 of those were on the road; expect a strong home effort
-offense averages 82.7 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 72.4 points per game   
-Golden Hurricane allow 41.4% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 44.4% 

9* Play TULSA (-).

-Tennessee comes in off a loss at Missouri; it was a flat spot off 3 big wins; expect bounce back
-offense is shooting 39.3% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 33.6% shooting from 3
-Vols defense only allows 69.6 points per game vs. offenses that average 78.1 points per game 

-South Carolina is off back-2-back upset wins over Kentucky and at Georgia; major flat spot here
-offense is shooting 40.8% from the field vs. defenses that give up 42% shooting from the field  
-Gamecocks defense is in poor current form; allowed 74 points or more in 3 of their last 6 games

9* Play TENNESSEE (-).

-USC hits the road off back-to-back home blowout wins; positive momentum carries over here
-offense hits 48.1% from the field on the road vs. defenses that only allow 43.5% shooting
-Trojans defense allows 43.6 shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.6% from the field  

-Oregon is just 2-3 SU over their last 5 games, and one of those wins came by 4 points; bad form
-offense only shoots 35.5% from three vs. defenses that also give up 35.5% shooting from three  
-Ducks defense has given up 169 total points in their last three games; in terrible current form

9* Play USC (+).

-Northeastern is playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 6th in their last 9 games; bad spot
-offense is shooting 31.6% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 36.1% shooting from 3
-Huskies defense allows 47.7% from the field on the road vs. offenses that only shoot 44.4%   

-William & Mary is off a 26-point home loss; HC Tony Shaver’s teams are 18-5 ATS in this spot
-offense is shooting 49.8% from 3 at home vs. defenses that allow 37.5% shooting from 3
-Tribe defense only gives up 34.3% shooting from 3-point land; big matchup edge in this game 

9* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

-Ohio State comes in off 3 straight blowout wins; on a back-to-back road set now; flat spot
-offense has faced a poor collection of opposing defenses that give up 71.7 ppg; step-up in class  
-Buckeyes defense allows 36.6% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses shoot 36.3% from 3

-Northwestern returns home off an ugly 20-point road loss at Indiana; expect big effort tonight
-offense hits 45.1% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 42.8% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense allows 62.1 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 74.5 ppg 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

-Indiana State needs to play a fast pace; 2-4 SU when held to less than 70 points this season 
-offense is shooting 41.3% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 42.5% shooting
-Sycamores defense is poor on the road; they give up 76.3 ppg on 44% shooting from the field  

-Evansville returns home off a close road loss at Missouri State; expect a strong effort tonight
-offense is shooting 48.6% from the field at home vs. defenses that only allow 45.5% shooting
-Aces defense only gives up 58.2 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 73 ppg

9* Play EVANSVILLE (-).

-Drake needs to play a fast pace; 0-4 SU on the road when held to less than 70 points 
-offense has scored less than 70 points on Northern Iowa in their last 6 meetings; bad matchup
-Bulldogs defense is terrible on the road; they give up 81.1 ppg on 48.4% shooting from the field  

-Northern Iowa snapped their 7-game losing streak with a home win on Saturday; momentum 
-offense is shooting 43.6% from the field at home vs. defenses that only allow 42.4% shooting
-Panthers defense only gives up 57 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 72.6 ppg

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

-Maryland comes in off an ugly 22-point road loss at Ohio State; expect big effort tonight
-offense is shooting 48.1% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.3% shooting from the field
-Terrapins defense allows 66.5 points per game vs. offenses that average 75.5 points per game 

-Michigan returns home off upset win at rival Michigan State as 9.5-point underdogs; flat spot
-offense has faced a poor collection of opposing defenses that give up 73.6 ppg; step-up in class  
-Wolverines defense allows 37.1% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses shoot 35.5% from 3

10* Play MARYLAND (+).

-San Diego State has won and covered the spread in 3 straight games; in excellent current form
-offense is averaging 78.1 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 72.5 points per game 
-Aztecs defense gives up 64.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 73.3 points per game  

-Boise State needs to play a fast pace to be at their best; 2-2 SU when held to less than 70 points 
-offense has scored less than 70 points on SDSU in 8 of their last 9 meetings; terrible matchup
-Broncos defense has given up 71 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games; in bad current form 

9* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (+).

-Valparaiso had lost 7 of their previous 8 games, but they’ve won their last 2 games; trending up
-offense is shooting 45.4% from the field vs. defenses that allow 44.2% shooting from the field
-Crusaders defense allows 67.1 points per game vs. offenses that average 70.7 points per game 

-Northern Iowa has lost 7 consecutive games, including their last 3 home games; in terrible form
-offense only averages 64.7 points per game vs. defenses that give up 71.4 points per game   
-Panthers defense has given up 69 points or more four times during their losing streak; bad form

9* Play VALPARAISO (+).

-Texas A&M has lost 4 straight games, but they played a brutal schedule; big step down in class
-offense is shooting 46.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.6% shooting from the field
-Aggies only allow 38.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.4% from the field  

-Tennessee is off back-to-back big win over Kentucky and at Vanderbilt; major flat spot here
-offense shot 56.6% from the field and 53.8% from 3 in their last game; major regression here  
-Volunteers defense is in poor current form; allowed 84 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

-Portland is off back-to-back closes losses in their last two games; expect more of the same here
-offense shoots 42.5% from three on the road vs. defenses that allow 34.7% shooting from three
-Pilots defense has given up 68 points or less in three of their last four games; good current form

-Gonzaga is off 3 straight wins where they scored 85 points or more; major regression here
-offense scored 275 points on 54.7% (105-192) shooting in their last 3 games; can’t maintain that
-Bulldogs defense gives up 36.4% shooting from 3 vs. offenses that only shoot 34.5% from 3  

10* Play PORTLAND (+).

-St. Joseph’s hits the road after 2 home underdog wins; now laying points on the road; bad spot
-offense shoots just 40.7% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 43.6% shooting   
-Hawks defense gives up 78.6 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 73 ppg  

-George Mason comes in off an ugly 27-point home blowout loss; expect big effort tonight
-offense is shooting 44.3% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 43.4% shooting
-Patriots defense gives up 72 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 76.1 ppg 

9* Play GEORGE MASON (+).

-South Carolina has lost their last 3 road games by a total of 37 points; expect another loss here
-offense shoots 33% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.9% shooting from 3   
-Gamecocks defense is in poor current form; allowed 74 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games

-Alabama returns home off back-to-back road losses; last was a blowout loss; expect big effort
-offense is shooting 50.8% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 42% shooting
-Crimson Tide defense gives up 66.7 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 74.8 ppg 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Iowa comes in off back-to-back home losses; at 9-8 overall, it’s clear that this team is way down
-offense shoots 34.3% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 35.3% shooting from 3   
-Hawkeyes defense is in poor current form; allowed 73 points or more in four straight games

-Maryland returns home off an ugly 30-point road loss at Michigan State; expect big effort
-offense is shooting 48.4% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 43.3% shooting
-Terrapins defense gives up just 59.6 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 75.1 ppg 

9* Play MARYLAND (-).

-Kentucky comes in off a perfect game at LSU; now on a back-to-back road set; terrible spot
-offense shot 50% (31-61) from the field and 41.7% (5-12) from 3 vs. LSU; regression here   
-Wildcats defense has given up 76, 83, and 71 points in their last three games away from home 

-Tennessee is off back-to-back losses with their last an ugly 10-point home loss; bounce back
-offense is shooting 39.1% from three vs. defenses that only give up 34.7% shooting from three
-Volunteers defense allows just 67.1 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 80.9 ppg 

9* Play TENNESSEE (-).

-Oklahoma is off a 1-point road win and a high-scoring blowout home win; bad spot stepping-up
-offense shot 54.7% from the field and 55.6% from 3 in their last game; major regression here  
-Sooners defense is in poor current form; allowed 83 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games

-West Virginia returns home off back-to-back road games; expect big effort against a young team
-offense is averaging 90.4 points per game at home vs. defenses that only give up 70.3 ppg
-Mountaineers defense allows 37.6% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses shoot 44.1%  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

-UCLA won back-to-back blowouts after upsetting Kentucky; now on the road in a bad spot
-offense is much worse on the road where they average 7.9 points per game less (75.2-83.1)  
-Bruins defense is also much worse away from home where they allow 76.6 points per game

-Stanford will be playing their fifth consecutive home game; huge schedule advantage here
-offense is shooting 45% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.6% shooting from the field
-Cardinal defense allows just 69.1 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 77.1 ppg 

10* Play STANFORD (+).

-Houston is 12-2 SU against an extremely mediocre schedule; now on the road stepping way-up
-offense is much worse on the road where they average 5 points per game less (75.6-80.6) 
-Cougars defense is in poor current form; allowed 72 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games

-Wichita State is 11-2 SU against a difficult schedule; step-down in class here; expect big effort
-offense is shooting 50.7% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 43.9% shooting
-Shockers defense allows 37.7% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses shoot 45.4%  

9* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

-NC State needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best; 0-3 SU when held to less than 70 points
-offense is much worse on the road where they average 67.5 points per game on 38.6% shooting  
-Wolfpack defense is also much worse away from home where they allow 73.2 points per game

-Notre Dame is 6-1 SU at home this season; all 6 wins have come by 9 points or more
-offense is averaging 84.6 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field at home this season
-Irish defense allows just 38.9% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.3%

9* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Illinois struggled to a 62-58 home win over Grand Canyon; now on the road stepping way-up
-offense shoots just 41.6% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 42.6% shooting
-Illini defense much worse on the road where they give up 75.8 points per game; 6.3 ppg more  

-Minnesota will be playing their fifth consecutive home game; huge schedule advantage here
-offense is shooting 47.7% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 44.1% shooting
-Golden Gophers defense allows 37.7% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses shoot 44%  

9* Play MINNESOTA (-).

-Florida hits the road for their first true road game of the season after 2 weeks at home; bad spot 
-offense scored 69 points or less in four of six games prior to 81-point outburst; regression here
-Gators defense worse on the road where they allow 82 points per game on 47.6% shooting

-Texas A&M returns home off a 22-point road loss at Alabama; expect strong bounce back here
-offense shoots 47.5% from the field at home vs. defenses that only allow 43.8% shooting
-Aggies defense only gives up 62.9 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 78.7 ppg  

10* Play TEXAS A&M (-).

-TCU is 12-1 on the season; off their first loss and in their first true road game, this is a bad spot
-offense has faced a terrible slate of defenses that give up 73.6 points per game; big step-up here  
-Horned Frogs defense has allowed 75.3 points per game on neutral courts; expect worse here

-Baylor returns home off a 24-point road loss in their last game; expect strong bounce back here
-offense is shooting 53.8% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 44.5% shooting
-Bears defense only gives up 64 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 76.2 ppg 

9* Play BAYLOR (+).

-Virginia Tech is 11-2 on the season against a tough schedule, including a road game at Kentucky
-offense shoots 54.5% from the field vs. defenses that allow 45.1% shooting from the field
-Hokies defense gives up 40.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses shoot 44.3% from the field

-Syracuse is also 11-2 on the season, but they’ve played a very easy schedule; phony record
-offense is only shooting 29.8% from 3 vs. defenses that give up 34.4% shooting from 3 
-Orange defense has skewed stats; gave up 76 points to Kansas and 79 points to Georgetown 

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

-Kansas needs to play at a fast pace; 1-1 when held to less than 70 points; only won by 4 points
-offense has played a terrible group of defenses that allow 74.8 points per game; big step-up here
-Jayhawks defense worse on the road where they allow 41.2% shooting; allow 38.6 % overall 

-Texas has three losses on the season; two have come in overtime and the other came by 7 points
-offense shoots 47% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 43.4% shooting from the field
-Longhorns defense only gives up 57 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 76.3 ppg  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

-LSU is 9-3 on the season vs. a tough schedule; one of their losses came by a single point
-offense is shooting 52% from the field vs. defenses that allow 44.9% shooting from the field  
-Tigers defense gives up 44.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Memphis is also 9-3 on the season, but against a very weak schedule; big step-up in class here
-offense is shooting 30.4% from three vs. defenses that give up 34.7% shooting from three  
-Tigers defense allows 35.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.1% from three

9* Play LSU (-).

-Middle Tennessee State is just 1-2 SU over their last three games; big step-up in class here
-offense is shooting 34.6% from three vs. defenses that give up 35.4% shooting from three  
-Blue Raiders defense allows 44.7% shooting from the field on the road vs. teams that shoot 45%

-Miami Florida is 10-1 on the season; off their first loss, expect a strong bounce back effort here
-offense is shooting 48.3% from the field vs. defenses that allow 45% shooting from the field  
-Hurricanes defense gives up 57 points per game vs. offenses that average 72.1 points per game 

10* Play MIAMI FLORIDA (-).

-Southern Illinois owns 7 wins against terrible opposition this season; big step-up in class here
-offense is shooting 30.6% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.3% shooting from 3  
-Salukis defense is allowing 76.2 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 73.6 ppg

-Nevada is 10-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 10 total points
-offense is averaging 83.4 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 69.9 points per game 
-Wolf Pack defense allows 42.4% shooting from the field vs offenses that shoot 45.5% from field  

9* Play NEVADA (-).

-Gonzaga is off 3 straight wins where they scored 89 points or more; major regression here
-offense scored 101 points on 68% shooting and 44.4% from 3 in last game; can’t repeat that
-Bulldogs defense gives up 40.7% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that average 34.9% 

-San Diego State is off a 63-62 home loss in their last game; expect a strong bounce back effort
-offense shoots 49% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 43% shooting from the field
-Aztecs defense only gives up 56.4 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 72.5 ppg  

10* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (+).

-Kansas State is 9-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 9 total points
-offense is shooting 49% from the field vs. defenses that allow 45.4% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense allows 38.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 43.4% from field 

-Washington State is 1-3 SU over their last four games; win over Indiana-Purdue; step-up in class
-offense has scored 69 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games; scoring troubles will continue
-Cougars defense is allowing 80.6 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 74 ppg 

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

-Cal Poly Slo has yet to lose a game this season by more than tonight’s posted point spread  
-offense is shooting 38.4% from the 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 35.5% shooting from 3
-Mustangs defense gives up 70.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 72 points per game 

-SMU is off 3 straight wins in which they shot greater than 50% from the field; regression here
-offense scored 79 points or more in those games; total is only 134; expect low point output  
-Mustangs defense fouls a lot; last 2 opponents only hit 62.5% from line; Cal Poly hits 73.5%  

9* Play CAL POLY SLO (+).

-Wake Forest opened the season with a 1-3 record, but they’ve won 5 straight games since then
-offense is averaging 80 points per game, 48.5% shooting from the field, and 39.8% from 3 
-Demon Deacons defense allows just 38.6% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45%

-Coastal Carolina is just 2-3 over their last five games with wins over Montreat and Hampton
-offense is shooting just 28.3% from 3 on at home vs. defenses that allow 33.7% shooting from 3
-Chanticleers defense gives up 36% shooting from 3 vs. offenses that shoot 33.3% from 3

9* Play WAKE FOREST (-).

-UNLV is 8-2 SU on the season with both of their losses coming in overtime; cohesive team
-offense is averaging 91.5 points per game, 51.4% shooting from the field, and 37.3% from 3 
-Runnin’ Rebels defense allows just 27.3% shooting from 3 vs. offenses that shoot 33.9% from 3 

-Pacific has lost back-to-back games, and now they are taking a huge step-up in class; poor form
-offense is shooting just 32.5% from 3 on at home vs. defenses that allow 33.8% shooting from 3
-Tigers defense is allowing 73 points per game vs. offenses that average 70.3 points per game 

9* Play UNLV (-).

-Arizona is 7-3 SU on the season, and they are one of the most efficient teams in the country
-offense is shooting 51.4% from the field vs. defenses that give up 42.6% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense allows 43.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses shoot 46.5% from the field  

-New Mexico comes into this game in terrible current form; just 1-7 SU over their last 8 games
-offense shoots just 41.8% from the field vs. defenses that give up 44.2% shooting from the field
-Lobos defense gives up 76.2 points per game on 45% shooting from the field this season   

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

-Villanova is a perfect 10-0 on the season, and one of the most efficient teams in the country
-offense is shooting 50% from the field vs. defenses that give up 42.9% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense is allowing 61 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 76.8 ppg  

-Temple comes in off a high-scoring 81-78 rivalry win over St. Joe’s; big step-up in class here
-offense is shooting just 33.3% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.1% shooting from 3
-Owls defense is allowing 36.2% from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 33.8% shooting from 3  

9* Play VILLANOVA (-).

-San Diego is 7-2 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely easy schedule; big step-up here
-offense is only averaging 68.1 points per game vs. defenses that give up 70.1 points per game 
-Toreros defense has faced terrible offenses that only shoot 42.5% from the field; exposed here 

-Colorado returns home off a 27-point blowout loss at Xavier; expect a big bounce back effort   
-offense is shooting 48.9% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 43.4% shooting 
-Buffaloes defense allows just 59.7 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 76.2 ppg 

9* Play COLORADO (-).

-Illinois will be playing their third away game over their last five games; step-up in class too 
-offense is shooting just 40% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 44.3% shooting
-Illini defense is allowing 40% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.7% from 3 

-UNLV will be playing their third consecutive game in Las Vegas, so big scheduling advantage
-offense is averaging 91.8 points per game, 51.4% shooting from the field, and 37.3% from 3 
-Runnin’ Rebels defense allows just 24.7% shooting from 3 vs. offenses that shoot 33.1% from 3 

9* Play UNLV (-).

-Minnesota comes in off a slow-paced loss; get preferred fast pace here, so expect bounce back
-offense is shooting 47.4% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.6% shooting from the field
-Golden Gophers defense allows 40.2% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.4% 

-Arkansas was in a great spot for their 26-point win in last game; step-up and regression now
-offense is only shooting 37.3% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 37.1% shooting from 3
-Razorbacks defense allowing 74.7 points per game and 35.4% shooting from 3; bad matchup 

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

-Cincinnati is 7-1 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely easy schedule; big step-up here  
-offense has faced a terrible slate of opposing defenses that give up 80.5 points per game
-Bearcats defense is allowing 36.8% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 32.5% 

-Florida comes in off back-to-back losses in slow-paced games; get preferred fast pace tonight
-offense is averaging 90.2 points per game vs. defenses that give up 74.6 points per game
-Gators defense allows 44.1% shooting from the field vs offenses that shoot 47.7% from the field 

10* Play FLORIDA (+).

-Colorado State is a young and inexperienced team; off upset of rival Colorado; flat spot here
-offense is shooting 26.9% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 31.5% shooting from 3
-Rams defense is giving up 84 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field on the road 

-Arkansas is a senior dominated team that comes in off a 26-point blowout loss; big bounce back   
-offense is averaging 93 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 75.9 points per game
-Razorbacks defense allows 41.1% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 47.1% 

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

-Michigan plays at a slow pace; they’ve held seven of their nine opponents to 66 points or less
-offense is shooting 48.9% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot just 44.8% FG
-Wolverines' defense gives up 62.4 points per game vs. defenses that average 77.0 ppg

-Ohio State needs to play at a fast pace to win; they are 0-3 SU when held to less than 70 points
-offense is averaging only 31.2% shooting from 3pt at home vs. defenses that allow 36.3% from 3pt
-Buckeyes' defense gives up 38.6% shooting from 3pt at home vs. offenses that shoot 35.0% from 3pt

9* Play MICHIGAN (+).

-Arkansas is a senior dominated team that won 26 games last season; 5-1 vs. a tough schedule  
-offense is averaging 90.2 points per game vs. defenses that give up 77.2 points per game
-Razorbacks defense is allowing 42.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.5% 

-Houston is also 5-1 on the season, but they’ve played a weak schedule; step-up in class tonight
-offense has faced terrible defensive teams that has skewed their seasonal stats; phony stats
-Cougars defense has also faced terrible offenses, making their defense look good; exposed here

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

-South Carolina is 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by just 4 points; strong team 
-offense is averaging 75.5 points per game vs. defenses that give up 71.3 points per game
-Gamecocks defense is allowing 39.5% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.5% 

-Temple comes in off a bad loss to La Salle in their last game; big step-up in class tonight
-offense scored just 63 points on the lone good defense they faced; they will have trouble scoring
-Owls defense is allowing 71.5 points per game, and that came against mediocre offenses 

10* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

-Rice comes in off a confidence-building home win; expect another strong performance tonight 
-offense is shooting 40.7% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 40.1% shooting
-Owls defense is allowing 43.1% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.2% 

-Texas Arlington comes in off three consecutive wins where they shot 50% or better; regression
-offense is only shooting 32% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 34.1% shooting from 3
-Mavericks defense allowing 73.3 points per game vs. offenses that average 73.7 points per game 

9* Play RICE (+).

-Texas San Antonio is 4-2 SU on the season with one of those losses coming by just 2 points
-offense is averaging 78.5 points per game vs. defenses that give up just 70.7 points per game
-Roadrunners' defense is allowing 41.2% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 41.7%

-Tulsa came home from a disappointing tournament showing to win by 20 points; letdown now
-offense is only shooting 34.4% from three vs. defenses that give up 35.4% shooting from three
-Golden Hurricane defense allowing 37.2% shooting from 3pt vs. offenses that shoot 36.4% from 3pt

9* Play UTSA (+).

-Detroit is off 3 draining games; a 116-109 OT win, a 72-70 win and a 131-69 win; big flat spot             
-offense is shooting 28.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 37.3% shooting from 3
-Titans defense giving up 98 points per game on 50.4% shooting from the field on the road    

-IPFW returns home off three straight road games with 2 recent losses; strong bounce back here
-offense is averaging 99.5 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field at home
-Mastodons defense allows 30.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that average 32% from three

10* Play IPFW (-).

-Oakland lost their last two games by 13 and 24 points; now they are stepping way up in class         
-offense is averaging just 62.2 points per game on 34.4% shooting from the field on the road
-Golden Grizzlies defense gives up 80.5 points per game on 48.5% shooting on the road    

-Kansas is 4-0 on the season with three of their four wins coming by 34 points or more
-offense is shooting 52.4% from the field vs. defenses that allow 42.8% shooting from the field
-Jayhawks defense is giving up just 63 points per game vs. offenses that average 72.5 ppg 

9* Play KANSAS (-).

-Texas Arlington is 2-0 SU, but they got their preferred fast-pace in both games; not tonight
-offense shot 51.7% from the field and 51.1% from three; expect major regression; big step-up  
-Mavericks defense gave up an average of 77.5 points in their two games, and still somehow won

-Alabama is 3-0 on the season with all three of their wins coming by double digits      
-offense is averaging 90.7 points per game vs. defenses that give up 77.7 points per game
-Crimson Tide defense allowing 37.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 39.6% 

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Western Carolina is 1-3 SU on the season with their lone win coming against Hiwassee College           
-offense is shooting 36.4% from the field vs. defenses that allow 39.8% shooting from the field
-Catamounts defense giving up 93 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field on the road    

-Massachusetts won their last game by 25 points (101-76), so expect momentum to carry over
-offense is averaging 87.5 points per game on 53.9% shooting from the field at home
-Minutemen defense is only giving up 71.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 78.2 ppg

9* Play MASSACHUSETTS (-).

-Northern Arizona is 0-3 with three blowout losses; one loss came against Embry-Riddle            
-offense shooting just 35.6% from the field vs. defenses that allow 38.6% shooting from the field
-Lumberjacks defense gives up 99 points per game on 55.8% shooting from the field on the road    

-Kansas State is 3-0 on the season with all three of their wins coming by 21 points or more
-offense is shooting 44.3% from three vs. defenses that allow 41.2% shooting from three
-Wildcats defense allowing just 28.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 38.8% 

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

-Ball State is just 1-2 SU on the season, and they will be playing their 3rd game in five nights
-offense is shooting 37.5% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 42.8% shooting  
-Cardinals defense is giving up 93 points on 53% shooting on the road this season 

-Oregon is 3-0 on the season with their three wins coming by 16, 33, and 58 points       
-offense is averaging 94.7 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field
-Ducks defense is only allowing 31.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 33.2% 

9* Play OREGON (-).

-Nevada will be playing their fourth game in nine nights, third game in six nights, and b2b road            
-offense has scored 88 points or more in all three games, but that sets them up for regression
-Wolfpack defense is giving up 37.5% shooting from 3-point land vs. offenses that shoot 33.6%    

-Pacific lost their last home game by just 4 points, so expect a strong bounce back effort tonight
-offense is averaging 69 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 62.8 points per game 
-Tigers defense allowing 31.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 38.1% from three 

9* Play PACIFIC (+).

-Eastern Washington will be playing their fourth game in eight nights; last three on the road 
-offense is shooting 40.6% from the field vs. defenses that allow 45.7% shooting from the field  
-Eagles defense gave up 79 points to fast-paced Washington; opponent tonight plays even faster

-UNLV is 2-0 on the season with their two wins coming by 35 and 42 points       
-offense is averaging 103 points per game vs. defenses that give up 91 points per game
-Runnin’ Rebels defense allowing 32.2% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 35.5% 

9* Play UNLV (-).

-Northern Arizona is 0-2 with two blowout losses; last loss came to against Embry-Riddle            
-offense shooting just 37.6% from the field; scored just 70 and 67 points in their two games
-Lumberjacks defense is giving up 91.5 points per game on 53% shooting from the field    

-Arizona State is 2-0 on the season with their two wins coming by 20 and 22 points
-offense is averaging 92 points per game vs. defenses that give up 80 points per game 
-Sun Devils defense allowing 40.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.2% 

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

-Western Michigan will have the best player on the floor in NBA caliber guard Thomas Wilder
-offense was poor in their loss at South Carolina; big step-down in class, so expect bounce back 
-Broncos defense held their first opponent to just 41.3% (26-63) shooting from the field

-Tulsa is 1-1 on the season; they lost to Lamar in their season opener before beating Oral Roberts        
-offense scored 90 points on 54.4% (31-57) shooting from the field in win; expect regression
-Golden Hurricane were out-rebounded 19-10 on the offensive glass in their first two games

9* Play WESTERN MICHIGAN (+).

-North Florida is 0-3 with three blowout losses; now playing their 4th game in seven nights           
-offense shooting just 39.9% from the field; scored just 66 points vs. Michigan and Michigan St 
-Osprey defense is giving up 93 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field    

-Florida is in their 3rd year under head coach Mike White; fast-paced offense is excellent
-won first game by 42 points (116-74), and now face an inferior team that also wants to play fast
-Gators defense gave up just 42.4% (28-66) shooting from the field and 30% (6-20) from three   

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

-Cleveland State is in a transition year; their best player transferred, and they have a new coach          
-offense scored 57 points in their opening loss; shot just 40% from the field and 15.8% from 3
-Vikings defense gave up 45 points in the second half to a bad Akron team; step-up in class here 

-Rutgers will have the best player on the floor in future NBA guard Corey Sanders
-offense has had two warmup games in which they scored a total of 165 points; in good form 
-Scarlett Knights defense held their opponents to just 39 made field goals on 112 shot attempts

9* Play RUTGERS (-).

-Michigan State is loaded, and head coach Tom Izzo finally has a team full of future NBA guys           
-offense will be one of the best and most efficient in the country; scored 98 points in first game
-Spartans defense is always good under Izzo, and with frontcourt depth, will be hard to score on

-Duke will get better as the season progresses, but right now, they are working in their new roster
-offense looked terrific against two cupcake teams (Elon and Utah Valley); big step-up in class 
-Blue Devils defense gave up 68 and 69 points in those games; now face an excellent offense

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

-North Dakota State lost their first game 85-66 to UC Santa Barbara; now stepping way up here          
-offense shot just 40.7% (22-54) from the field and 30.4% (7-23) from 3-point land in that loss
-Bison defense allowed 50.9% (27-53) shooting from the field and 54.5% (12-22) from three    

-USC returns their entire roster from their 26-win team of last year; legitimate title contenders
-won their first game by 42 points (84-42) despite shooting just 41.2% (28-68) from the field
-Trojans defense gave up just 23.3% (14-60) shooting from the field and 10.5% (2-19) from three   

10* Play USC (-).

North Carolina was in total control of their game against Oregon on Saturday night, but the Tar Heels fell asleep over the final minute of the game.  They blew a comfortable lead, and their sloppy play almost cost them the win.  Off that terrible finish, we expect a focused North Carolina for the full 40 minutes tonight in this championship game.  Overall, North Carolina averages 84.3 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Tar Heels will now face a Gonzaga defense that has yet to face an offense as good as North Carolina’s.  While it’s true the Bulldogs have terrific seasonal numbers, they’ve played an extremely easy schedule, including their road to the finals as the Zags were fortunate to face the two weakest seeds remaining in Xavier and South Carolina in the Elite Eight and Final Four.

Gonzaga also let a big lead slip away on Saturday against South Carolina.  The Bulldogs were up by 16 points in the second half, but they let a poor Gamecocks’ offense rally back.  That’s not a good sign for tonight, especially considering North Carolina’s offense is a major step-up in class for Gonzaga’s defense.  The Bulldogs played at a fast pace this season, but that will work against Gonzaga in this game against North Carolina.  The Tar Heels simply have the superior talent to play up-tempo for the full 40 minutes of this game, and Gonzaga simply won’t have enough to stay close throughout.  We’ll back North Carolina in the National Championship game on Monday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Oregon has surprised many people by making a run to the Final Four.  Most pundits assumed the Ducks could not overcome the loss of rim protector Chris Boucher, but Oregon has continued to win without him.  However, his absence will be evident in this game against a North Carolina squad that will dominate the paint.  The Ducks beat a terrible Iona team in the first game, and then Oregon followed that up with fortunate wins over Rhode Island and Michigan in the final minute of those games.  Oregon then played their best game of the tournament in their domination of Kansas as a 6.5-point underdog; the Ducks essentially led that game from start to finish.  Oregon is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, and they will certainly get that pace tonight against North Carolina.  However, that’s not a good thing considering the Tar Heels simply have the superior talent to play up-tempo for the full 40 minutes of this game.

North Carolina has alternated really good games with mediocre games throughout the tournament.  The Tar Heels won their first game by 39 points, and then they squeaked by Arkansas by 7 points in a game that became close late.  North Carolina then blew out Butler by 12 points in a game that wasn’t that close, and in their last game, they survived Kentucky by hitting the game-winner at the buzzer.  The Tar Heels have now had five days to regroup, so they’ll be set for a peak performance tonight.  Overall, North Carolina averages 84.5 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Tar Heels are facing an Oregon defense that has given up 72 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Georgia Tech has been fortunate in their last few games to reach Madison Square Garden and play for the NIT championship tonight.  Georgia Tech beat Indiana in the first round of this tournament, but then they caught their last three opponents off upset wins after shooting well above their seasonal averages in their previous game.  The Yellow Jackets played Belmont after they upset Georgia on the road; they played Mississippi after they upset Syracuse on the road, and then they played Cal State Bakersfield after they upset Texas Arlington on the road.  Georgia Tech’s path to this game couldn’t have been scripted any better, but their streak of playing an opponent in a letdown spot comes to an end tonight.  Georgia Tech has a limited offense that only averages 64.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land away from this season.

TCU played good basketball against a very difficult schedule this season, and the Horned Frogs were on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  TCU owns a +4.0 point differential compared to Georgia Tech who owns a +0.5 point differential which includes their four NIT games that they won by 12.3 points per game.  TCU owns a big edge on offense in this game as the Horned Frogs are averaging 74.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  TCU’s defense has held three of their last four opponents to 68 points or less, so they are quite capable of shutting Georgia Tech’s offense down in this game.  TCU is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Horned Frogs in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play TCU (-).

Kentucky handled UCLA with ease on Friday night, and they did that by controlling the pace.  The Wildcats were also able to survive a low-scoring defensive slugfest against Wichita State in their previous game, so we’ve seen a pattern of how Kentucky has been game-planning for their high octane, up-tempo opponents.  Kentucky needs to control the pace once again tonight to handle North Carolina, and if they do, the Wildcats will be heading to the Final Four.  But even if they don’t and get caught running with the Tar Heels, the Wildcats are still certainly capable of winning just as they did earlier this season in a 103-100 shootout.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 85.2 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they’ve held their last five opponents to just 69.2 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best.  And they got their preferred style in the first meeting against Kentucky, and still lost.  North Carolina has been able to control the pace in all three of their tournament games, but we don’t expect that to be the case tonight.  North Carolina’s offense actually ranked 4th in efficiency of the teams that made the Sweet 16 while Kentucky’s offense ranked 3rd, so the Tar Heels don’t have an offensive edge in this game.  Overall, North Carolina is averaging 84.7 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina will now face a Kentucky defense that has the right personnel to slow them down and force the Tar Heels to execute in the half court.  North Carolina has shown no ability to play that way, so that will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game.  We’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game on Sunday night.          

9* Play KENTUCKY (+).

Oregon had an easy first round matchup against Iona, but heir last two games were difficult games against strong opponents.  The Ducks survived Rhode Island 75-72 in their second game, and then they squeezed by Michigan 69-68 in their last game.  Don’t be fooled by those two close wins because Oregon was facing very good opponents.  Oregon was also up against the pace in their last two games as Rhode Island and Michigan both prefer to play slower than Oregon wants, and that was another reason why the Ducks only won by small margins.  That won’t be the case tonight against a Kansas team that also likes to play at a fast pace.  Oregon’s offense is averaging 78.7 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they are holding opponents to just 65.9 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas has steamrolled all three of their opponents so far in the tournament.  All three of their wins have come by 20 points or more while their offense has averaged a whopping 96 points per game.  However, the Jayhawks played three inferior teams, so they are certainly stepping way up in class in this game.  Kansas is also set to regress sharply after shooting 54.8% (34-62) from the field and 53.6% (15-28) from three-point land against Purdue in their last game.  In their three tournament games, Kansas has shot an incredible 54.7% (104-190) from the field and 46.6% (34-73) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, and since they are facing a very good Oregon defense, there’s reason to expect Kansas will regress tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Oregon plus the points on Saturday night.      

10* Play OREGON (+).

Wisconsin was given a terrible #8 seed by the tournament committee, so the Badgers definitely earned their way to the Sweet 16.  The Badgers had to face #1 and defending national champion Villanova in their last game, but that was a very good matchup for Wisconsin.  The Badgers have a huge edge when they face teams that have to play fast to be at their best.  Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow pace, so when their opponent struggles on offense in the half court, the Badgers have little trouble in beating those teams.  However, when Wisconsin plays a team that can play either fast or slow, they tend to struggle mightily.  The Badgers’ biggest weakness is their offense, and in fact, Wisconsin ranked dead last in efficiency of all the teams in the Sweet 16.  Overall, Wisconsin only averages 70 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Florida ended the regular season on downward swing, but the Gators have reverted back to their early season level in their two tournament games.  Florida beat East Tennessee State by 15 points (80-65) in their first game, and then they waxed Virginia by 26 points (65-39) in their second game.  The Gators also covered the spread in both games, and they did so by a combined 29 points.  Florida has been very impressive in this tournament, and we expect another strong effort from the Gators tonight.  As mentioned above, Florida is a versatile team that can play at a slow or a fast pace.  They are not reliant on one style of play, and that makes them an extremely difficult team to match-up against.  Florida owns an efficient offense that averages 77.9 points per game, and a stout defense that only gives up 65.7 points per game.  Florida is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Gators in this game on Friday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game against Kentucky with an impressive 31-4 SU record.  One of those wins came in Kentucky earlier this season when the Bruins beat the Wildcats 97-92 as 11-point underdogs.  Obviously that line was way out of whack knowing what we know now, but still, there’s no way UCLA should be the favorite in the rematch.  UCLA is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best.  And they got their preferred style in the first meeting against Kentucky.  However, we don’t expect that to be the case tonight.  UCLA’s offense is the most efficient in the country, and overall, the Bruins are averaging 90.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land.  UCLA will now face a Kentucky defense that has the right personnel to slow them down and force the Bruins to execute in the half court.  UCLA has shown no ability to play that way, so that will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game.

Kentucky had a difficult game against a very good Wichita State team to get to the Sweet 16, and the Wildcats were able to survive that low-scoring defensive slugfest.  That’s exactly the type of game Kentucky needs to play tonight to handle UCLA, and if they do, the Wildcats could actually win this game quite easily.  But even if they don’t and get caught running with the Bruins, the Wildcats are still certainly capable of winning.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 85.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they’ve held their last five opponents to just 66.2 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 26.9% shooting from three-point land.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play KENTUCKY (+).

Xavier making the Sweet 16 is the biggest surprise of the NCAA tournament so far.  The Musketeers were only one of three teams to make the tournament with a negative efficiency margin in conference play.  The other two teams (Virginia Tech and Seton Hall) both lost in the first round.  Xavier benefitted from two deeply flawed teams as Maryland was a terrible #6 seed while Florida State is poorly coached and playing a poor style of basketball that is not conducive to tournament success.  Xavier’s offense shot 52.9% (55-104) from the field, 50% (20-40) from three-point land, and 74% (37-50) from the free throw line in their two tournament wins.  Xavier’s last two games were anomalies, and since they are stepping way up in class for tonight’s game, we expect sharp regression from the Musketeers in this game.

Arizona did not have an easy matchup against St. Mary’s in their last game, so don’t be fooled by their close 69-60 win.  The Wildcats are actually taking a major step-down in class against an undermanned Xavier team.  Arizona plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 7-man rotation.  Arizona owns an efficient offense that is averaging 76.7 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 39.6% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona also owns a terrific defense that only gives up 65.8 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game against West Virginia with an impressive 34-1 SU record.  However, the Bulldogs played an extremely easy conference schedule this season; they steamrolled every team they played because the competition was so bad.  Gonzaga played three tough opponents out of conference; Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona.  The Bulldogs did beat all three teams, but their wins came by a combined 14 points (4.7 points per game) which is a far cry from the 25.9 points per game they beat their conference opponents by.  Gonzaga continued their easy schedule in the NCAA tournament as they played a bad South Dakota State team followed by a Northwestern team that was off a highly emotional win in their first game.  Despite the favorable draw, the Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in either game while allowing two flawed teams to hang close.  That’s not a good sign for tonight’s matchup against a very good West Virginia team that will be their toughest opponent in over three months.

West Virginia had a difficult road to get to the Sweet 16, but the Mountaineers showed how good they are by winning easier than expected.  West Virginia’s first game came against a very strong Bucknell team that could have won a game in the tournament if they faced an easier opponent.  The Mountaineers then beat Notre Dame in their second game; again a team that could have won against a different opponent.  Those two tough games setup West Virginia perfectly for tonight’s game against Gonzaga, especially since the Bulldogs played two easy opponents.  The Mountaineers play a pressing style that Gonzaga never sees in their conference, and that pressure will force the Bulldogs into many mistakes.  West Virginia’s defense has been excellent on neutral courts as they’ve held their opponents to just 63.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take West Virginia plus the points in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Central Florida comes into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a 22-11 SU record on the season.  However, the Knights won 14 of those game on their home court, and they went just 5-6 SU in their true road games.  Central Florida relies on their defense to win, but they gave up 144 total points in their last two games, so they could be tailing off a bit.  Central’s Florida’s offense has been terrible on the road where they are only averaging 63.1 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Knights own an awful -4.5 point differential away from home as well.

Illinois State felt like they got snubbed by the NCAA tournament committee.  The Redbirds were highly disappointed to be in the NIT, but they bounced back strong from that setback in their first tournament game.  The Redbirds beat UC Irvine by 14 points in their last game, and we expect them to carry over momentum tonight.  Illinois State is a perfect 16-0 SU at home where they own a strong +10.1 point differential on the season.  Illinois State’s defense only gives up 60.7 points per game on 37.1% shooting from the field and 32.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Redbirds’ offense averages 70.8 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with Illinois State in this game on Monday night.

10* Play ILLINOIS STATE (-).

Michigan State played their best game of the season on Friday night.  The Spartans blew out Miami, FL by 20 points (78-58) after shooting 56.6% (30-53) from the field.  A big part of their easy win came from their domination on the glass where they held a 34-18 rebounding edge, including a 9-5 edge on the offensive glass.  That edge gave Michigan State a lot of second chance points while holding the Hurricanes to one and done.  The Spartans will not dominate the paint in this game against Kansas, and that will force their offense to match their last game production.  That’s highly unlikely considering the Spartans were terrible on the road where they went just 5-12 SU with a poor -6.7 point differential during the regular season.  Michigan State’s offense only averaged 66.2 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land on neutral courts this season.

Kansas crushed UC Davis by 38 points (100-62) in their opening tournament game.  The Jayhawks shot 56.2% (36-64) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land.  That game took little out of Kansas, and we expect them to play another outstanding game against Michigan State.  The Jayhawks’ offense will face a Michigan State defense that is giving up 74.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Michigan State has shown no consistency whatsoever this season, so we expect major regression in this game.  Kansas is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Iowa State dominated Nevada in their 84-73 win on Thursday night.  The Cyclones shot 55.6% (30-54) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  Iowa State is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Cyclones got their preferred pace against an inferior Nevada team, and that made Iowa State look impressive.  However, that won’t be the case tonight against Purdue who is a much better team.  Iowa State’s offense averages 81 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  But when the Cyclones are forced into a slower-paced game, their offense struggles mightily.  In fact, Iowa State went 0-3 SU away from home this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 6 points per game.

Purdue had a difficult matchup against Vermont in their tournament opener.  The Boilermakers were able to extend their lead late, but that close game bodes well for today, especially since Iowa State had an easy opening game.  Purdue plays at a controlled pace, and have to believe they’ll slow it down a bit tonight in order to avoid a run and gun game against Iowa State.  Purdue also holds a significant edge on defense in this game.  The Boilermakers are only giving up 67.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue combines that with a highly efficient offense that averages 80.1 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Boilermakers in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play PURDUE (+).

Xavier beat Maryland by 11 points (76-65) on Thursday night after the Musketeers out-scored the Terrapins 41-29 in the second half.  Xavier shot 50% (25-50) from the field and 39.1% (9-23) from three-point land.  Xavier’s offense only averaged 70.8 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land away from home, so it’s hard to imagine them repeating their last performance.  Xavier was also extremely fortunate to be playing a bad Maryland team that did not deserve to be a #6 seed.  The Musketeers will be taking a major step-up in class for this game against Florida State, and we expect sharp regression from Xavier.  The Musketeers like to play at a fast pace, but that will be to their demise against the Seminoles who play the same way.

Florida State did not have an easy matchup against Florida Gulf Coast in their opening game, so don’t be fooled by their 86-80 win.  The Seminoles are actually taking a step-down in class against an undermanned Xavier team.  Florida State plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation.  Their depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, especially in this game against Xavier who only has a 6-man rotation.  Florida State owns an efficient offense that is averaging 82.6 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field.  The Seminoles are also super athletic and their size will be too much for Xavier to handle.  We’ll lay the points with Florida State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Michigan State had a tumultuous season.  The Spartans were ravaged with injuries throughout the season, and that resulted them going 19-14 SU.  Michigan State also played much better basketball at home where they went 14-2 SU on the season.  The Spartans were terrible on the road where they went just 5-12 SU with a poor -6.7 point differential.  Michigan State struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Spartans went 0-10 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 11.5 points per game.       

Miami, FL plays at a pretty slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Hurricanes only give up 63.7 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  Miami held 25 of their 32 opponents this season to 70 points or less, so Michigan State’s offense is in for a struggle.  Miami’s offense will face a Michigan State defense that is giving up 74.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Miami will dictate the pace in this game, and since Michigan State has shown no ability to play slow, we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Friday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Seton Hall opened the season with a 12-3 SU record, but the Pirates are just 9-8 SU and ATS over their last seventeen games.  Seton Hall’s offense has struggled with their shooting away from home all season, and that’s not a good thing against a potent Arkansas offense.  Seton Hall is shooting just 42.7% from the field, 34.3% from three-point land, and 64.2% from the free throw line.  The Pirates will now face an Arkansas defense that is in excellent current form.  The Razorbacks have given up 72.2 points per game on just 39.5% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Arkansas is 25-9 SU on the season, and the Razorbacks have gone 8-2 SU over their last ten games.  Arkansas’ two losses during that span came against Kentucky and Florida who happen to be the best two teams in the SEC.  The Razorbacks love to play at a fast pace, and their frenetic style tends to wear teams down.  Seton Hall does not face this style in the Big East, so this is a difficult matchup for the Pirates.  Arkansas averages 79.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas simply has too much offense for Seton Hall, so we’ll back the Razorbacks in this game on Friday afternoon.          

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Vermont comes into this game with a 29-5 record.  The Catamounts are on a 21-game winning streak, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Vermont plays a terrific style of basketball that is well-suited for tournament play.  The Catamounts play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense and suffocating defense.  Vermont averages 73.4 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Vermont’s defense has been exceptional this season while only giving up 62.8 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Catamounts have held 15 of their last 18 opponents to 67 points or less. 

Purdue is a team that needs to play at a quick tempo in order to be at their best.  The Boilermakers like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Purdue’s offense struggles in the half court.  The Boilermakers will not get their preferred style of play against a Vermont team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Purdue has been held to 70 points or less in five games away from home this season.  The Boilermakers are just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in those games with their two wins coming by just 4 and 5 points.  Purdue will be out of their comfort zone in this game, so we’ll take the points with Vermont in this game on Thursday night.                     

9* Play VERMONT (+).

Vanderbilt got hot at the right time, and they parlayed that into a NCAA tournament bid.  The Commodores went 7-2 SU over their last nine games of the season, and their two wins over Florida during that span sealed their at-large bid.  But Vanderbilt had too put everything they had into their late season push, so there’s reason to expect a drained team for this game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled all season away from home.  The Commodores only average 65.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the three-point land away from home.  Vanderbilt struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Commodores went just 3-8 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.        

Northwestern had a terrific season, and they finally got their first ever ticket to the Big Dance.  The Wildcats play at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  Northwestern only gives up 65.1 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  Northwestern held 28 of their 34 opponents this season to 70 points or less, so Vanderbilt’s offense is in for a struggle.  Northwestern will face a Vanderbilt team that shouldn’t be laying points, especially since they own a poor -1.6 point differential away from home this season.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Bucknell is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into West Virginia’s frenetic style.  The Bison are 18-3 over their last twenty-one games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Bucknell is 26-8 on the season, including 12-6 in games away from home.  The Bison play at a semi-fast, but controlled pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Bucknell averages 76.1 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  Bucknell’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 61 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 14-7 SU and 7-14 ATS over their last twenty-one games.  West Virginia’s offense comes into this game in poor current form.  The Mountaineers are only averaging 67.4 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them being priced in this pointspread range, especially on a neutral court against a very good Bucknell team that is in excellent current form.  We’ll take the generous points with Bucknell in this game on Thursday afternoon.   

9* Play BUCKNELL (+).

Princeton played exceptional basketball this season.  The Tigers come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 4-6.  That means Princeton is on a 19-game winning streak, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road.  The Tigers are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Princeton has held their last 18 opponents to 69 points or less in regulation time.  Overall, the Tigers are only allowing 62 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.94 points per 100 possessions.  Princeton also has a terrific offense that averages 70.8 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  

Notre Dame was more of a slower paced offense in years past, but the Irish sped up their style of play this season.  And because of their faster style of play, Notre Dame’s offense has struggled mightily in the half court.  The Irish went just 3-5 SU when held to less than 70 points this season, and they are just 1-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread.  Notre Dame’s three wins came by 4, 5, and 8 points which clearly indicates that the Irish cannot extend leads when playing an opponent that forces them into a half court game.  Notre Dame went just 9-7 on the road this season, and the Irish only own a 1.0 point differential away from home.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Princeton on Thursday afternoon.           

10* Play PRINCETON (+).

UC Irvine had a good season; they won the Big West regular season title while going 12-4 in conference play.  The Anteaters will play in the NIT after reaching the title game of the CollegeIndsider tournament last season.  UC Irvine played all four games on the road to reach that game, so playing away from home is not an issue for them.  UC Irvine played at California, Arizona, Saint Mary's, New Mexico State and Nevada in non-conference this season.  All are NCAA tournament teams except California who happens to be the #1 seed in the NIT.  “We’re not strangers to playing road games against good teams as you can see from looking at our schedule,” said head coach Russell Turner.  The Anteaters also feel a bit disrespected with their seed: “We’ve got a competitive group and enjoy playing together, and we’ve earned the opportunity to do that again. We have a lot of pride. We feel like we’re seeded last in the NIT.”

Illinois State feels like they got snubbed by the NCAA tournament committee.  The Redbirds are highly disappointed to be in the NIT, so they are quite vulnerable tonight, especially as a double digit favorite.  “Obviously we were pretty disappointed and crushed after waiting for our name to come up,” said head coach Dan Muller.  “Mentally it’s tough because we had high hopes.”  Illinois State’s players feel the same way as their coach: “Obviously we were disappointed our name didn’t get called,” said Tony Wills.  “It is what it is. We have to fight through it. We have to come together and make the best of the NIT.”  This game is all about motivation; UC Irvine wants to be playing while Illinois State is clearly distracted by not making the Big Dance.  We’ll take the points with UC Irvine in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play UC IRVINE (+).

A pair of top 25 teams will meet in the Big 12 championship game tonight in Kansas City, Missouri and the matchup edge goes to West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are already 2-0 SU/ATS this season versus the Cyclones with easy double-digit wins in both games.  WVU won 85-72 as a 2-point road favorite in January and then won 87-76 as an 8-point home favorite one week ago.  Using a standard 3.5 points for home court in each game would have made neutral court lines of -5.5 and -4.5 favoring West Virginia, so tonight's line for this third meeting is a full basket too low.

Iowa State is a team that needs to play fast with an uptempo pace in order to be successful.  That style plays right into West Virginia's game plan as the Mountaineers are a full-court pressure defense that forces 21 turnovers per game and is very comfortable with a fast pace.  West Virginia enters this game in excellent current form on defense, allowing just 62.0 points on 40.2% FG shooting in their past five games, while Iowa State has allowed 77.0 points on 43.4% FG in their past five games.  The Cyclones rely heavily on the three-point shot with 25 attempts per game this season, however those long range shots will be more difficult tonight since this is the third game in three days without rest, while West Virginia will be able to generate more consistent baskets down low and in transition.  The matchup and line value favors the Mountaineer in this Big 12 championship game on Saturday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

Vanderbilt played last night and they beat Texas A&M 66-41.  The Commodores somehow won that game by 25 points despite shooting just 39.7% (23-58) from the field and 37.9% (11-29) from three-point land.  That type of offensive performance against Florida tonight will make Vanderbilt non-competitive in this game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled all season away from home, so there’s a very good chance they’ll play a subpar game tonight.  The Commodores only average 65.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the three-point land away from home.  Vanderbilt struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Commodores went just 3-7 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.

Florida comes into tonight’s game off a 73-71 road loss at Vanderbilt in their season finale.  The Gators did not have to play yesterday, and with extra time to prepare for this game and playing with quick turnaround revenge, we expect a strong bounce back game by Florida.  The Gators are actually playing with double revenge as they also lost to Vanderbilt at home this season as well.  Florida’s defense only gives up 66.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 45.4% shooting from three-point land, and they’ll stymie Vanderbilt’s offense in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Florida in this game on Friday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

Alabama had to play yesterday, and the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State 75-55.  Alabama played one of their best offensive games of the season while scoring 75 points in their twenty-point win.  Alabama shot 47.2% (25-53) from the field and 50% (8-16) from three-point land.  The Crimson Tide have struggled all season on offense, and in fact, Alabama only averages 68.6 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.  Alabama’s offense averages just 67.2 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land away from home, so yesterday’s offensive outburst sets them up to regress in this game.

South Carolina comes into today’s game off a 75-70 road loss at Mississippi in their season finale.  The Gamecocks did not have to play yesterday, and with extra time to prepare for this game and playing off a loss, we expect a strong bounce back game by South Carolina.  The Gamecocks will also be playing with revenge after losing to Alabama in overtime earlier this season.  South Carolina’s defense only gives up 64.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with South Carolina in this game on Friday afternoon.

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record, but since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 7-12 SU over their last nineteen games.  Unfortunately for Indiana, they were hit with major injuries to their better players.  James Blackmon Jr and Juwan Morgan both missed multiple games while OG Anunoby suffered a season-ending knee injury.  However, Indiana’s play as of late has been vastly improved despite the fact they’ve gone just 2-6 SU over their last eight games.  In fact, four of their six losses have come by 6 points or less, so those games could have been wins instead of losses.  One of those losses was a 96-90 overtime loss at Iowa in a game Indiana dominated but ultimately couldn’t overcome the refs who gave the Hawkeyes a whopping 47 attempts from the free throw line; Indiana only took 19 free throws.  Indiana has a very good offense that averages 80.4 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three point-land.  That strong offense will now face a terrible Iowa defense that gives up 80.6 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Iowa comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak which began with their overtime home win over Indiana.  The Hawkeyes then won outright as underdogs at Maryland and at Wisconsin before blowing out Penn State in their last home game.  Iowa’s defense has been their weakness all season, especially as of late.  They’ve given up 70 points or more in eleven of their last fourteen games.  Over their last five games, Iowa has allowed 73 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field.  Iowa’s offense played one of their best games of the season in their route of Penn State.  The Hawkeyes scored 90 points on 47.7% (31-65) shooting from the field, 57.1% (12-21) shooting from three-point land, and 84.2% (16-19) from the free throw line.  Indiana is the superior team, and since Iowa is set to regress, we’ll back the Hoosiers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play INDIANA.