The regular season saw both these teams finish in a dead heat at 51-31. That was due to the fact that Cleveland was 10-14 in their last 24 games. They showed how little that mattered sweeping the Pacers in round 1, and it appears to be business as usual for LeBron & Co. Toronto knew they had to make some changes if they had a chance against Cleveland if they should meet again in the playoffs this season. They brought in Tucker and Ibaka. Tucker to play James, and Ibaka a big guy that can knock down 3's, and defend the rim, and all the way out to the 3 point line. So what has changed since last year? Cleveland still has James, Love, and Irving, as well as Frye to knock down 3's. The added defenders, when it comes to playing in Cleveland, where the Cavs are 15-1 SU against the East in the playoffs last 16, has done nothing to slow the Cavs. The Cavs offensive trio (Love,Erving, and James), have averaged 72.2ppg against Toronto at home over the last 5 games. Channing Frye has averaged 12.0ppg off the bench shooting 17-26 and 10-17 from deep. His best game was this year, against the "new" defenders, designed to stop him, he dropped 21, and the trio has not been slowed one bit either. The problem for the Cavs is defense. They finished 22nd this year in defensive efficiency. This is the playoffs though right? No! The Cavs allowed 111 points per 100 possessions vs Indiana, worse than their regular season poor numbers. The Cavs posted 112.5ppg vs Indiana, and Toronto, newly acquired defenders and all, have not slowed the Cavs at all. I did throw out the April 12th game, when Cleveland scored 83, because Love, James, and Irving all sat. The Cavs are big on offense, and worse on defense, and their last 51 games as a favorite to  total of greater than 207.5 have seen them go 39-12 to the over. Emerging, healthy, and confident Norman Powell, perhaps supplies another offensive weapon for Toronto as well. Make the play on the over.

Boston has taken control of the series, by being the first team to win at home, and now have a 3-2 lead in the series. I don't expect the Bulls to go down quietly, and since Rondo went down. So what has happened? The Bulls scored 108.5ppg with Rondo, and 93ppg without him. The assists went from 25pg to 19, and the rebounding margin dropped by 4. Coach Stevens replaced Amir Johnson's minutes with more of Olynyk, and others, Gerald Green, and Rozier getting more of the minutes at guard, and producing. A stagnent offense, and desperate team, means more defense. I think points will be hard to come by tonight, history agrees. The Bulls are 0-8 O/U as a home dog since Valentine's Day. I also have a strong situation on the under based in part on venue change. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 71-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

A lot will be overlooked regarding the total in this game. That is because last game went to overtime, and the final numbers were highly distorted, with 26 points coming in the extra session. The fact is this is a huge over signal during the regular season, and specifically in the playoffs. When the same teams meet after overtime, and the last game beat the total by greater than 18 points, the over is 39-8-2 ATS since 2005. The total has beaten the number by 9.07ppg. (12ppg in over games). Make the play on the over.

The Boston Celtics climbed back into their series with the Chicago Bulls by winning game 3, cutting the series deficit to 1-2. They connected on 17 from deep, shooting 46% from beyond the arc. Despite of this, they managed just 104 total points. The Chicago offense suffered the loss of Rondo, and had just 14 assists for the game, as it is obvious, they are not the same team as they are offensively with Rondo pushing the ball, and getting it in the right places. I expect Boston will not shoot 46% from deep, and Chicago to continue to struggle offensively. This game also fits a playoff total situation that is 253-160 ATS, and 34-16 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Portland Trailblazers have a lot of confidence in their offense, especially at home. They should come out on fire, and put up a lot of points here. If the last 7 meetings in Portland between these clubs has anything to do with it, expect a shootout. The last 7 meetings have led to both teams combining to average 235.4ppg, with 6 of the 7 playing over the total. The Blazers have never had much success at Golden St. where they have dropped 11 straight, and averaged just 103.5ppg. Over that same period however they have produced 113.4ppg at home. Look for this one to play over the total.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

There is a very key element tied into this selection, and a lot of it has to do with Houston at home, and the offense. The Rockets scored 100 points in each of their last 40 home games, so that part is pretty much a given. here is how I see it. The Rockets scored more than 110 points at home 24 times this season, and went 24-0 SU, 15-8-1 ATS, and 19-4-1 to the over. They score 110 or less in 17 home games, and went 6-11 SU, 3-14 ATS, and 2-14-1 to the over. You can obviously see a distinct line in the sand for this team, and it occurs at the 110 point mark. So let`s examine if they are likely to do it here. here are the teams that held them to 100 or less at home, and that opponent`s defensive NBA rank, based on points per game allowed;

Dallas (2) 4
SA (2) 2
GST (2) 11
TOR 8
BOS 15
WASH 21
MEM 3
SAC 19
ATL 10
MIA 5
IND 14
UTAH 1
DEN 27
DET 7

It becomes pretty clear if you take the top 15 teams defensively in ppg allowed (the top half of the league), just 3 of the 17 times Houston did not score more than 110 points at home it came against teams below the upper half or 17.6% of the time, and in all games just 3 of 41 or a total of 7.3% of all games. The fact that at greater than 110 points, Houston is 82.6% to the over, it looks like a lot of value here. Moreover, the Rockets scored 124.1ppg against the bottom half of the league at home, while allowing 108.The last 10 such opponents all scored 100 against them as well. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a playoff situation that is 40-16 ATS and the play is on the over.

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This game fits a playoff situation that is 66-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs have a great sense for the playoffs. They go into defensive mode, and an already good defense tends to get better. That is especially true, when they face a rather pedestrian offense in Memphis.The Grizzlies have met the Spurs in the playoffs. Since the 2004 season these clubs have faced off for 18 games in the playoffs, with Memphis averaging a woeful 88.6ppg. Since the 2013 season, including last year, the Spurs are 8-0 holding the Grizzlies to 84.4ppg. The Grizzlies have also done a great job holding down the Spurs, who have managed just 100.9ppg. This game also fits a playoff totals situation that is 66-39 ATS to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

The Cleveland Cavs didn't seem very upset finishing as the #2 seed. This team has been making a lot of news for not playing defense, but this is another season, and a whole different mindset. The Cavs took 3 of 4 in the regular season from Indiana, despite allowing 113.5ppg. That is going to have over players chomping at the bit to get down on the over here, as the regular season showed these teams combine to average 231.7ppg in the 4 games played. The Cavs allowed 93.2ppg in the playoffs last year at home, and 90.4ppg before the Finals. I don't think they are as bad defensively as many think, and we will see that in game 1. Cavs also fit a situation that is 253-159 to the under, which is 15-3 to the under in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

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