1)  Team has allowed 100 or more points in at least 5 straight games. 

2)   Opponent is off a close win of 3 points or less.

These teams have played to a 80-125-12 O/U mark, or 61% of the time fall shy of the total.

We also have a team in the NY Knicks that has played 8 straight to the over, and this is where the value becomes positive on the under.

Play under on a team if they have played 8 or more straight games over the total. This covers 55% of the time as well.

Consider the NY Knicks and Denver Nuggets under the total tonight.

This game fits a situation that is 68-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-195 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Coach Bennett since he has been at Virginia has been an under machine. His team off a game that scored 125 points or less, and is playing to a total of above 116 in their next game is 80-35 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 124-80 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 168-93 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-137 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 106-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 234-130 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 61-28 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 165-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 233-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 549-426 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 231-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 78-33 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 286-219 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 229-129 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 548-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 227-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 961-801 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-347 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 224-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 75-41 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 58-41 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

 ALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!2016SPORTWINSLOS8ESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 betNCAAF  17-18665255.9+8.89+889.00+1778.00NFL  17-18534255.8+6.41641.001282.00MLB  2017241257----13.91-1391.00-2782.00NFLX '176366.7+2.84+284.00+568.00WNBA '17201655.6+2.81+281.00+562.00CFL '178377.8+4.80+480.00+960.00NFL TOTALS162044.4-5.26-526.00-1052.00MLB PLYOFS54---+0.90+90.00+180.00NBA  2017654957.0+12.54+1254.00+2508.00NBA TOTALS281762.2+9.92992.00+1984.00NCAAB 17-18182541.9-8.63-863.00-1726.00                 
                         ALL SPORTS JANUARY 1, 2011 THROUGH THE PRESENTALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!****- The All games won/lost column does not reflect won/lost record of MLB, as it is a moneyline sport, but does reflect units won or lost. same with the total annual standings below.6YEARWINSLOSSESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 bet201155243855.9+71.06+7106.00+14212.00201252048451.8-23.19-2319.00-4638.00201348443452.8+53.09+5309.00+10618.00201454953350.7-8.80-880.00-1760.00201569266551.4+2.49+249.00+498.00201670165751.9-20.78-2078.00-4156.00201760252553.8+32.98+3298.00+6596.00                                                               ALL4067370352.4%+108.07+10807.0021614.00
 Yesterday's Result:



NBA:  0-0   

NCAAB:  0-0

NCAAF:  0-0

NFL:  1-0   +1.00

Won with Denver in the NFL  1-0  +1.00 units

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Over the last 2535 days clients are up +108.07 units documented daily.
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Please also note that football season is here, and Tuesday is now the day with no newsletter.
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The NBA season is one of the longest of all professional sports. The exhibition season starts in September and a Champion isn't crowned until the middle of June. That leaves just 2 months without any NBA basketball, July and August. There will be a lot of ups and  downs, and paying attention to what a team is experiencing in the moment is telling. Today in the newsletter we ill take a look at a situation that applies to a game tonight, featuring the Utah jazz at Boston. Boston has put together an early season resume built on defense, and the Utah Jazz has been a defensive oriented team over the past few seasons. No team scored more than 108 points against Boston, through Thanksgiving, but since then 4 of their last 9 have done so. Utah, has allowed 108ppg over their last 4. So we have a pair of defensive teams, squaring off to a low total, that have appeared a bit tired of late, so what do we have?:

1)  Road team to a low total from 191.5 to 199.5

2)  Road team has allowed at least 100 points to each of its last 2 opponents

3)  Home team saw 234 or more points score in its last game.

These teams have played to a:

32-5  O/U mark since the start of the 1998 season, topping the total by 11.91ppg. Each team has averaged 102+ppg. 

If your worried about back fitting a short defined total range, in this case 191.5 to 199.5, then also consider the fact that if we remove the total parameter completely and play this situation to any total:

203-140-3 O/U   59.2% to the OVER on 346 games. The 32-5 ATS is just a sweet spot defined by anticipated low totals. 

Consider Utah/Bos OVER the total tonight at the Garden.

This game fits a situation that is 296-190 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 84-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 545-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-126 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 101-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that fits a 177-117 ATS situation ad the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has a 112-69 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 167-92 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 219-125 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 495-346 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 219-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is is 200-123 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is is 167-91 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 533-388 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 373-226 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 212-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 164-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 164-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 543-424 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 117-77 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 493-345 ATS record, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that has a 98-42 ATS record, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 214-122 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 199-123 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 113-57 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

The New Orleans Pelicans scoring is trending up, and when you have twin towers Cousins and Davis adding 56 points, 27 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks, your not afraid to get the ball up and down. This team has gone for 114+ in half their games on the season, and their opponents have squeezed off an average of 97 shots a game in their last 3. Clippers in at 111ppg in their last 5, but have lost 4 straight and last 2 opponents went for 120. This sets up a huge long term situation that is 493-344 O/U. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Boston Celtics were primed to be a contender for an NBA Championship, bringing in Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and drafting Jason Tatum. Those dreams appeared to end 5 minutes into the season when Gordon Hayward suffered a season ending gruesome injury. Boston seemed to be hung over after that, lost their first two games, but have since been a force and take the court tonight vs their arch-rival LA Lakers on a 9 game winning streak. Boston has seen 20 year old Jalen Brown come of age, and 19 year old Jason Tatum is putting up rookie of the year numbers. The Celtics are defending better than anyone, controlling the glass, and have a deep team. The Lakers have been slowly improving and come in at 5-5 to start the season. Boston has held 8 of their 9 opponents during the winning streak to 94 points or less. I look to the Lakers game against Utah, a team that defends for 48 minutes, and the shots were way down, and just 177 total points scored. This game fits a match up indicator that has been lethal over the years to the total, and is 128-212-8 O/U the last 348 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 196-128 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 298-177 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This is an early season big time match up, with Oklahoma City hosting Boston. It certainly is a good measuring stick as to where these teams are. While both these teams have plenty of firepower, they have each been average to this point shooting the ball. The success for these clubs has come on the defensive end, where both have excelled to start the season, and with a meaningful measuring stick game, I expect both defenses to be at their best tonight. Boston since opening the season 0-2 has held 6 opponents to an average of 90ppg. The Thunder have held 5 of 7 opponents to 96 points or less. This game also fits a totals profile that is 91-163 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 209-118 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Dwane Casey seems to have all players bought in now on his defensive emphasis. His Raptor's team smothered Portland on the road, and its on to Denver at 4-2 to start the season. Outside of a game vs the Golden St. offensive machine, the Raptors have limited opponents to 101 points or less in 5 games. The Raptors get their hands on a lot of balls, and have forced 18.3 turnovers per contest. Nuggets off 2 big scoring games vs defenseless NY and Brooklyn, have otherwise struggled averaging less than 100 in their other 5 contests. Total has been pushed upward, but if Toronto continues to buy in on Casey's defensive demands, this one won't make it. Coming into play for this contest is a huge and successful total indicator, which has logged an impressive 256-160 mark to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

Scoring thus far in the NBA has ticked down a bit, but after steadily increasing, the odds makers have been over-adjusting, and have missed by 1.37ppg thus far, equating to a 1.75% advantage to the under. They will eventually get this straightened out. Kings opened the season with 3 straight strong defensive efforts, but last 3 showing 114ppg allowed. This is not likely to continue, as the pace of their games, has not changed. A couple of monster shooting games by Indiana has the offense looking much better than it is, and my total for this game is 207, so there is some decent line value here. This game also fits a statistical match up indicator, that has been a powerful tool for decades, and shows 281-180 ATS in favor of the under here. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 67-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This is a young Milwaukee team, and usually that means a lot of empty trips on defense. That has not been the case with this team, as they are 3-2 on the season despite getting pounded off the glass where they are -10 a game. They stay in games because they put the work in on the defensive end, and that has led to 4 of their opponents shooting less than 43% for the game, and their pace has been below average. Atlanta shot the ball well on opening night in Dallas, but have since struggled, shooting under 40% in 3 of 4, and there are not a lot of consistent scoring options on the floor, and the result is 5 straight under the total. The winner has averaged 100.5ppg in the last 11 meetings, in a series that has often been represented by first one to 100 wins. This game also fits an under situation that is very reliable at 299-172 ATS, make the play on the under.

Clippers at 3-0 have not yet felt the impact of losing Chris Paul. The biggest asset for this team so far has been the defense allowing just 88ppg, despite a lot of uptempo by opponents, and despite the pace, all 3 have played under the total. They have been huge off the glass,and turning the opponent at a high rate. Portland not afraid to push the pace, but at the expense of offensive efficiency, with 3 of 4 in the under column to start the season. Many will observe low total, and site pace as an indicator of a lot more points, but hasn't been showing up on the scoreboard. Bulk of Blazers shots have come in first 10 seconds of the shot clock (36%), and Clippers defending well, will lower efficiency. Statistical match up indicator showing 37-66 O/U here, supports thoughts for a lower scoring game than projected. Make the play on the under. Gazing into the public action at many sources sees bettors are 63-67% on the over, but total on the decline, as bigger smart money sees this differently. Make the play on the under.

The Dallas Mavericks have limited options, and often have to run the shot clock down, as the offense plays for good shots, and also tries to limit total possessions as a strategy to stay in games. They were 26-15 to the under a year ago at home, and the average points scored were 197.3. Memphis has already played Golden St. and Houston this season, a pair of explosive offensive teams, and held them to a combined 95.5ppg. The Houston game saw just 145 total shots taken. The Mavs are a better defensive team than what they have shown through 4 games, and will look a lot better at home vs a team with limited offense. Last 11 meetings between these teams has seen both teams get to 100 in just 2 of them, and the last 11 in Dallas has seen both teams get to 100 in just 1 of them. This game also features a statistical match up situation that has produced a 199-123 ATS mark to the under. Playing this one under the total.

Boston took a blow 5 minutes into their season when Gordon Hayward went down with a season ending injury. Brad Stevens has tried to use his entire roster, and still seems to be experimenting with combinations, to see what looks best. This does take some continuity and flow out of the offense that lacks consistent scorers other than Kyrie Irving, but he is shooting just 37%. Al Horford is at 38% and Marcus Smart at 31%. When you add it all up Boston is shooting just 41.8%, and just 32.8% from 3. Knicks trying to find 20-30 shots a night vacated when they moved Melo, but 43.1% from the floor says they are still searching, and a woeful 27% from deep speaks volumes of their offensive struggles. This game fits a statistical match up situation that has been the fuel for a 123-198 O/U situation, active in Boston tonight. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-46 ATS and the play is on over.

This game fits a situation that is 64-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 64-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 80-32 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 489-344 ATS, and the play is on the over.

Cleveland has shot the ball at an unreasonably ridiculous rate, especially from deep. There are currently 7 players on the roster over 40%, from a team that averages less than that. It is an unsustainable pace. Cleveland is 19-1 SU at home shooting 40% or better from 3, and 18-2 to the over. When they are less than 40% they are 15-10-1 under. Boston on the road is 11-3 to the over allowing 40%+ from deep and 25-9 to the under when they allow less than 40% from deep. Cleveland games average 17ppg less when they are under 40% from deep, Boston's games 13ppg less when they allow less than 40%. Think numbers start to regress to the mean here, make the play on the under.

Sunday May 21st, 2017

Thomas being out, does not slow the Boston offense down, the shots taken and allowed, or pace is pretty close, what it does however is reduce the efficiency of the offense:

2pt .458 3pt .364 with
2pt .429 3pt .307 without

This certainly could be variance, as there are just 6 games without him this season.

How have they replace his 29ppg?

Essentially they haven`t. When he has played

Sports and physics sometimes come together in a strange sort of way. Some call it mojo, or momentum, or the hot hand, but in any case when Newton`s law meets team`s in the NBA playoffs, the theory of `An object in motion tends to stay in motion. We have seen that on behalf of the Cleveland Cavs in their series vs Boston, and through 2 games, Golden St. has looked equally unstoppable, posting 136 points in their last game. Put it all together, and when a pair of teams meet in the NBA playoffs, after beating the toatl in their previous series meeting by 20 or more points, but less than 50 points and playing at home (using home so double value for each game is eliminated), they are 85-50-3 O/U in their next contest. There is a subset of this, which is 24-2 O/U also active in this contest. Make the play on the over.

When the Golden St. Warriors take the floor, the anticipation is they are going to score a ton of points. The public is certainly buying into those sentiments, as the over is a 70% choice by bettors for this game. There is a lot of evidence to the contrary for this game, and I will make my case here. First of all, most will think with Curry 6-20 and Thompson 1-9 in game 3, will not happen again. The thought may also be that their combined 3-15 shooting will not occur again either. The fact is, when the splash brothers have combined to connect on less than 5 from deep in the previous game, the next game is 1-9 O/U last 10 this season. When Golden St. makes less than 10 from deep, they are 6-16 O/U last 22. Golden St. has also played to their lowest totals on the road the last 2 years (less than 210 average) vs Cleveland, Utah,San Antonio, and Memphis, and has averaged just 101.9ppg in those contests. They have also been held to 92 points or less 7 times the last 2 years, 5 of those occurred against those 4 teams. The high scoring Warriors have played to a 14-29-1 O/U mark on the road this season, which is the highest percentage of under's by any team, and of those games, when the total has been 213 or less, they have been 0-6 O/U this year, and overall just 3-12-2 O/U anywhere to a total of less than 214. Teams that are up 3-0 in a playoff series, having won all 3 games by double-digits are 1-12 O/U. Golden St. is also 9-30 O/U on 1 day of rest last 39, and the under in this series is now 25-8-2 last 35. Look for this one to play under the total.

The Golden St. Warriors beat Utah in game 1, and they look to go to 2-0 tonight. The Jazz have arguably, the best defense in the NBA, and they limited the high scoring Warrior attack to just 106 points in game 1. Their problem is on offense where they often go through extensive scoring droughts. There is no doubt the defense is legit. They held the NBA's top 10 scoring teams on the road to an average of just 101.2ppg, and over the 2nd half of the season, those numbers got even better, allowing 99.1ppg to the top 10 offenses from January 5th on. The public can't bet the over fast enough in this game, they see Golden St.'s unstoppable high octane offense, and a total just a little over 200, and the money is down on the over at well over 70% of all bets. There is typically a key stat for every match up, and the key stat for this one is offensive rebounds. The magic number for Golden St. regarding the total (easy put backs) is 10. The Warriors are 63-84 O/U when they fail to get 10 offensive rebounds, 73-75 O/U if they do. They are also 59-80-4 O/U off a game where they failed to generate 10 offensive rebounds. (9 in game 1). The problem for Golden St. it is a one and done situation vs the Jazz as they have garnered 10+ offensive rebounds just 1 time in their last 7 played against the Jazz. Overall these teams are 4-15 O/U in the last 19 meetings, failing to reach the total by an average of -12.18ppg. Teams playing in the playoffs as a double-digit home favorite and a total greater than 188, are 17-45 O/U. Game 2 dogs of 10+ that lost game 1, are 1-14 O/U last 15, failing to get to the total by an average of -12.53ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors will take on the Utah Jazz, in a series that depicts offense vs defense. The public sees the offense getting it done here, as 65% have dropped their money on the over, yet the total has dropped from the opener, a classic signature of big money on the 35% side, moving the number towards the money, but away from the consensus. Golden St. has averaged 114.3ppg at home since becoming an elite team in 2014, but in their 5 home games vs the Jazz over the period they have averaged just 104.7ppg, a full 10 points less, and have held a mediocre Jazz offense to 89.5ppg. Those numbers fall well shy of the total here, and with Golden St. now 26-8 ATS to the under in their last 34 home playoff games, including 13-2 to the under if the total is less than or equal to 209.(falling 11ppg shy of reaching the total on avg.) There is situational value on the under as well. Make the play on the under.