This game fits a total situation that is based in part on both teams coming off blowout wins. The situation is 295-214-9 ATS, and the play is on over the total.

This game fits a totals situation that is based in large part how these teams performed last game. It plays on certain road teams that fit the criteria. This situation has performed very well and is now 227-149-13 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 104-64-4 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This is a game 7 and ther is a long history o game 7's playing under the total, however that has been baked into the line here. This game fits a situation that is 186-100-10 ATS, which is 32-16 ATS if it is a playoff game, including 2-0 if it is game 7. Make the play on the over.

The Denver Nuggets needed overtime in game 1, and came away with a 10 point win. Donovan Mitchell was immense for the Jazz as he scored 57 in the loss. The game saw 230 points scored prior to overtime despite the fact the Jazz connected on just 16-49 from deep, turned the ball over 15 times, and could not get stops when needed the most. I think the best offensive matchup for the Jazz is Rudy Gobert, and look for him to get a lot more touches in game 2. These teams have played all close games this season with the last 2 going to overtime, so there could be a lot of free throws in the final 1-2 minutes off this one. This game also fits a situation that is 563-403-17 ATS to the over, which is also 62-34-2 ATS to the over in the playoffs. make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 563-402-17 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 446-312-22 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 94-43-3 ATS, and the play is on the over.

Saturday August 8th, 2020

  Top Total Play · Under   [715] Utah Jazz vs. [716] Denver Nuggets
    Sat Aug 8th, 2020 3:35pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-116 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 178-96 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that has a 58.6% win rate. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that has produced 58.4% winners over the last 11 years. The play is on the over.

The Charlotte Hornets are a woeful 22-42 on the season. The offense has really struggled but thy have recently found a few more answers as their last 4 games have seen this team average 115.3ppg, which is their highest 4 consecutive game average of the season. They have issues with the better teams on the road where their usually good defense has been torched for 115.6ppg against a team .500 or better. Miami has been a hidden gem playing them on the over where they are now 46-15-1 ATS to the over as a home favorite of more than -3 points, to a total of greater than 206 in their last 62 beating the total on average by +5.48ppg. make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 107-47-2 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 63-31 ATS (which is also 37-14 ATS in March games) to the under. I also see a couple points of line value here. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 81-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Most of the NCAA Conference Tournaments are played at a neutral site. There are 2 things at work here, that assist the total going under. First there are the nerves that have to be settled down, and 2nd a neutral court means that neither team has a lot of experience shooting in a background that they are not accustomed to. When you add to the mix that the total isn't exceedingly low, and the favorite is a low volume shooting team (55 shots a game or fewer), we have all the elements in play to put our thumbs on the scales and have an advantage over the odds-makers. This can be depicted like this:

1)  Neutral court

2)  Conference tournament

3)  True favorite of -3 or more

4)  total is 129 or higher

5) Favorite averages 55 shots per game or fewer.

site = neutral and total >= 129 and tA(FGA)

The Lakers have scored 111 or more points in 15 of their last 16 games. That includes 12 straight at home. they have also scored 117 or more in 14 of 17 games at home vs a team with a losing record, where they average 120ppg. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 ATS to the over (22-4 ATS the last 26). Make the play on the over.

The Spurs mantra over the past 2 decades was built on defense, but things have changed. They have allowed 7 of the last 13 teams they faced to shoot over 50%. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 to the over (22-4 lately). Make the play on the over.

March Madness has begun as Conference Tournaments have already seen plenty of upsets. The neutral court sometimes creates problems for a team offensively as they have a different shooting background and in many cases that takes time for the players to get used to. Higher scoring teams off a pair of over games to help elevate the total seem to be an area of impact for these games. Let's take a look:


1) Neutral site

2)  Favored by -4 or more points

3)  The team is off at least 2 games over the total

4)  team averages 80+

5) Opponent averages at least 70+
 

These games have produced 58.7% of 157 games UNDER the total. Tonight consider San Francisco and Gonzaga UNDER the total.

The Vermont program gas been very consistently good over the years. They have posted 20+ wins for 12 straight years. They have played to a lower posted total on average than any of the previous 6 years. They are scoring and allowing fewer points than any of the precious 5 seasons. The defense is allowing 59.2ppg, while the offense is at just 71.1ppg, the lowest mark in 6 yrs. Albany is a slow-down team that is 64-37 to the under in its last 101 games (20-7 this year). I expect this game to play in the 120s, or less. make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 196-139-7 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

Albany has been 64-35 ATS to the under over its last 99 games, and I see some line value here as well. Make the play on the under.

South Dakota is one of the top shooting teams in the country on their home floor as they are connecting on 53% for the season. They are also shooting 43.1% from 3 on home hardwood. North Dakota plays spotty defense, especially on the road so the home team here is going to have a lot of open and easy looks. South Dakota is averaging 86ppg at home on the season. South Dakota has been 18-8-1 ATS to the over on the season. Moreover this N. Dakota team is 66-38-1 ATS to the over in their last 105 road games. (`12-4 ATS this year). Make the play on the over.

A high level MAC Conference game has Akron taking on Buffalo. The Bulls were a Cinderella type team a year ago, but lost a lot of firepower. They are still scoring because of a fast pace attack but the shooting percentages are considerably down from a year ago. Akron is 21-7 and in a similar boat, as they like to run as well, but are not a very efficient offense. Both these teams defend very well. Akron has been a fool's gold team as they tend to score a lot of points, but never reach the potential set by the odds-makers. Akron is 62-34-1 ATS to the under in its last 97 games, and their last 8 have played under the total, none reaching the level here to go over. Make the play on the under.

The Kansas Jayhawks are a successful team every year because they have the ability and willingness to defend. This allows this team to win on the road and it has shown up in the scores of their road games. Over their last 99 road games they are 66-29-4 ATS to the under. They have not allowed any team to score more than 63 points against them on the road this season, leading to a 10-0 ATS mark to the under on the road. Additionally, the Kansas offense averages 79ppg on the season at home and just 67.8ppg on the road. This has led to 21ppg less scoring on the road. Kansas St. allows just 61.6pph at home on the season. Make the play on the under.

The Washington Wizards have no regard on the defensive end of the court. They love to run and shoot, and play to outscore the opponent regardless of who they are. When they play on the road they are allowing 130ppg on the season. Put them in a high total of more than 229 points and they are 15-2 ATS to the over with an average of 251.1ppg scored beating the total by +16.88ppg. (11-0 ATS in their last 11. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.

Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.

LSU is now 53-26-2 ATS to the over in its last 81 road games. That includes 7-1 this season where their road games have averaged 164.3ppg. Make the play on the over.

Trying to speed this Fordham team up at home is an improbable task. The Rams play great defense, and their methodical style, leads to low possession ugly games. The Rams are 90-69-5 to the under here, including 65-39-5 to the under most recently, and 11-3-1 this season. UMass is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 overall. Make the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors saw their 15 game winning streak come to an end just prior to the All-Star break. They will begin the 2nd half at 40-15 on the season. The Raptors have piled up the points vs bad teams this season as they average 120.3ppg vs an opponent that is .400 or worse. That has led them to a 16-4 mark to the over in those 20 games. This game also fits a 90-48 ATS mark situation on the over. Make the play over the total in this one.

The NBA All-Star break is over, so is their anything in terms of a situation that has developed after the long layoff? Today we will take a look at a situation that has occurred the 1st game back from the All-Star game, apparently defense is not part of the mindset when we have this scenario:

1) 1st game after the All-Star break

2)  Home favorite of more than -3

3) Winning percentage greater than .390 and less than .730

4)  Since 1999

 

Defense is obviously still on the break as these teams have crashed the total at a 65.2% rate covering 141 games. Tonight consider Philadelphia/Brooklyn OVER the total.

Coastal Carolina and Troy both like to push the tempo and I expect these teams are going to put up some points tonight. Coastal Carolina is 16-9 to the over on the season and has allowed 75+ points in 8 straight games and 10 out of 11. Troy has allowed 76ppg in their last 12. A road team off of 3 straight losses by 6 or fewer points, facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 80+ are 14-0-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over.

Samford has allowed 81ppg in their last 69 games on the road. That has led them to a 46-20 mark to the over. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 60-43 to the under. Make the play on the under.

W. Virginia has shot the ball woefully bad in their last 3 games at 62-191. That is just 32.5% from the field. Kansas and Baylor may have played a role in some of that a pair of elite defensive teams. What it has done is set them up in this game for a strong over situation. Home teams that have shot 35% or less in at least 3 straight games are 65-26-3 to the over if the posted total is fewer than 141 points. Make the play on the over.

The Fordham Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the country shooting at just 38% for the season. That has been even worse in conference games where they are shooting a dreadful 36.6%. Their slowdown methodical pace has led to just 52.6ppg. This has been going on for awhile and at home the Rams are now 64-39-5 to the under in their last 108 on home hardwood. The 1st meeting this season saw just 114 total points scored, and not much has changed. Make the play on the under.

Colorado is coming into this game off a loss at Oregon, and will be hungry to overturn the bad feeling. that game played in the 120s and I would expect a similar path for this game. Colorado has an elongated track record of getting after it on the road on the defensive end where their last 104 road games have produced a 68-36 mark to the under (6-1 this year). That mark in conference games is 53-27 to the under. Oregon St. has gone 6 straight games without producing total points that would go over this total. Make the play on the under.

NBA VERY GOOD TEAMS = UNDER:

Everyone likes to watch a game between a pair of very good teams. When it comes time for such a game in the NBA, the defense, which is often absent from most NBA games often takes center stage. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at how that plays out. There is a bias in such games in the NBA as we take a look at total results when both teams are .600 or better, with a home favorite:

We see the UNDER is a blind winner with a super sample size of over 2700 games.

We also see that when these games feature a high total it gets stronger:

This goes live tonight in Houston as the Celtics invade. Consider the UNDER in this contest.

Tennessee is a tough place to play and this team has been impossible to score on at home where they have allowed 63.6ppg over their last 95 home games limiting opponents to 39% shooting. they have faced Kentucky here 5 times during this period and 4 of the 5 have played under the total as well. Kentucky has shot just 41% in these games and 28% from deep. These 95 games has seen Tennessee go 62-31-2 to the under. Male the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors have won 12 straight games, the last coming from a 19 point deficit against this same Indiana team. It has been an offensive explosion as the Raptors have scored 120.6ppg in the streak. That has led to another streak, as they are 8-3-1 to the over as well. Indiana has been piling up the points as well, with 12 of their last 17 eclipsing the total. This game also plays into a situation that is 166-88 ATS to the over as well. Make the play on the over.

Sacramento St. is 11-9 on the season, and this team has been taking the air out of the ball for quite some time. They allow just 55.9ppg on the road this season and overall they are now 52-23 to the under in their last 75 road games. Weber St. has a string basketball history but not this year as they are 8-14. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Southern likes the uptempo and average 76.2ppg on the season. They played UL Monroe earlier in the season to their lowest scoring game where just 123 total points were scored. That has led to a total 5 points lower than that previous game, and I don't expect a repeat tonight. UL Monroe is a huge over team at home where the over is 39-12 in their last 51 at home. Make the play on the over.

This Florida Gulf Coast team at 7-17 is a far cry from Andy Enfield's Dunk City team that gave many fits in the NCAA Tournament several years ago. The team struggles for offense, but does one thing well and that is defend. Stetson ar 12-12 is cut from a similar cloth as they struggle offensively and defend well. Florida Gulf Coast is 36-13 to the under in its last 49 home games. Make the play on the under.

The Cleveland Cavs have dropped 11 straight games at home, and start to be on watch as the NBA record for the most consecutive home losses is 19. Defense has been just a rumor for this team as they have allowed more than 125ppg in their last 6 at home. Overall the Cavs are 18-3-1 ATS to the over in their last 22 contests. Oklahoma City is a food shooting team and an NBA team that shoots 46% or better on the season facing a team that allowed 55% or more in its last game are 522-437-12 to the OVER. (253-209-5 at home). Thunder piling up the points in their last 9 games as a home favorite at 8-1 to the over with an average totals score of 236.9. Make the play on the over.

Samford at 8-15 heads on the road where they have been mostly defenseless. They are 45-18 to the over in their last 63 on the highway. They are allowing 88ppg in their last 13 games overall and 93.1ppg in their last 7 on the road. Make the play on the over.

Mick Cronin had a trademark at Cincinnati. His teams played hard physical and ugly games and were tenacious on the defensive end. While he hasn't had time yet to get his type of players into the program, he will have some help tonight. Colorado has gone a decade of playing the type of game Cronin loves, physical and ugly as the Buff's are 66-35 to the under over the last 10+ years on the road. (4-0 this year). This one looks ugly, make the play on the under.

I've not been a proponent of team trends over the years. The main reason is the team trends tend to mostly be based on small sample sizes. Essentially what I am saying is 12-1 ATS, or 16-2 ATS pretty much always turn out to be variance. While variance can be present with any sample size, it diminishes in probability with larger sample sizes. I've always tried to hold ground with a sample size of 100 or more games. That pretty much precludes most team trends. Today in the newsletter we will look toward a team trend that is under the radar for a couple or reasons. It is a team trend with a sample size of 162 games, and it is a small or obscure school on the NCAA Basketball landscape, so it does not draw any attention. North Dakota games have averaged about 150 points over the period and I think there is a small school bias and an up tempo style that allows for the value. Odds makers seem to be reserved in posting large totals for a team that should not score as consistently as this one does. here is a look:

They are 60% to the over in a 162 game period. They are 63-31-1 OVER to a total of 137.5 to 152.5. 

Consider N. Dakota/Purdue Fort Wayne OVER the total tonight.

Illinois St. and Evansville have both struggled this season. The Purple Aces are just 9-12 on the season while Illinois St. is a woeful 6-14. these teams combined to bring back just 4 starters this season. These teams have combined to produce just 110.7ppg combined vs common opponents this year (6 games), which may be telling tonight. Evansville has played 6 straight to the under, while Illinois St. is 93-46 to the under in its last 139 games. Make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a situation that is 401-280 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

LSU is 14-4 and they like to get the ball up and down the court as they are averaging 80.6ppg. This team has been doing this for a long time especially on the road where they are now 50-25-2 to the over in their last 77 games. (4-0 this year so dar). Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 401-279 ATS and the play is on the over.

The basketball program at Liberty College has taken off, and still flying under the radar. The Flames are a remarkable 19-1 on the season and a win tonight would mean 4 straight 20 win seasons. They silently won 29 games last season. The Flames do it with the defense allowing just 36% shooting and a woeful 28% from deep. They also take the air out of the ball as their games average 102 shots per contest (similar to the old Princeton teams), but without the 110 or so totals those used to generate. Since the start of 2014 the Flames are 55-25-1 to the under in all games. The bloom has not come off the rose yet as they are 13-5 to the under this year. Consider Liberty vs N. Florida under the total tonight.

This game fits a situation that is 164-84 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 275-176 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Samford has been a defensive liability on the road where they have allowed 80.8ppg in their last 62 games. This has led to an under the radar mark of 44-18 to the over in the 62 games, and 18-4 to the over in their last 22. Make the play on the over.

W. Carolina allows 82.2ppg on the road in their last 45 games leading to a 31-14 mark to the over. That has been 27-7 to the over with a posted total from greater than 137 and less than 168 covering the total by nearly 10 points per contest. Make the play on the over.

Ole Miss has struggled as the schedule has become more difficult. They shot the ball very well against several cupcakes but as the schedule has increased in difficulty, they are 0-5 and as a team has shot as a team a woeful 37.3%. Tennessee lost a lot of firepower from last year's team, shooting just 40% at home, but the defense has been superb. The defense has always shown up at home, as the Vols are 60-31 to the under in its last 91 home games. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER.

This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER.

This game fits a total situation that is extremely strong and is 162-84 ATS. The play is on the under.

UC Fullerton has been an under machine producing a 59-32-4 ATS mark to the under in its last 95 games, including 6-2 to the under vs UC Irvine, in games that have produced just an average of 128 total points. All 3 meetings at home have played low and 3- to the under producing just 113.3ppg. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Tech has been a defensive demon at home, and when you put that together with the limited offense the result has been 92-47-1 ATS to the under in their last 140 home games. Make the play on the under.

E. Tennessee St. is off to a 15-3 start to the season. They have shot the ball poorly in recent games, but against a defenseless Samford team, they will be looking to tick up the tempo and should have a breakout offensive game. Samford has allowed 88ppg in its last 9 and Chatanooga just struck for 105 against them. The last 5 road games have seen Samford yield 92.6ppg and the Bulldogs are notorious for road games playing over the total as they are 43-18 to the over in their last 61 roadies. Make the play on the over.

The B-10 Conference has long been known for its physical play. the question is if there is a way to cash in on that? Today in the newsletter we will take a look at the rugged B-10 Conference and key in on the home dogs and see what we find. We can start by looking at all B-10 home dogs:

There is a 52.2% starting point which is a good springboard to dig deeper. If we only look at games with a medium to high total from 141 and up we get:

 
We now see 60.6% of these games play to the under. If we avoid uncompetitive games and cap the line at fewer than +12 points we get:

That is 64.2% to the under. Tonight consider Iowa/Northwestern UNDER the total.
 

Wofford lives to turn games into track meets especially at home where they are averaging 89ppg and shooting a sizzling 53% from the field. the Citadel will be obliging as they are averaging 83.6ppg. Wofford has seen their last 128 home games play 84-42-2 to the over. make the play on the over.

Jacksonville has a tough as they head to Liberty to take on the upstart 17-1 Flames. Liberty has been the surprise of the season so far, and the Flames are dominating defensively on their home floor, which has been going on for quite some time. Flames allowing a stingy 32% shooting at home, and 23% from deep. Slow pace, the great defense has led Liberty to a 54-24 mark to the under at home in its last 78. Make the play on the under.

Tennessee and South Carolina saw a lot of roster turnover from last year. each team returned just 1 starter from 2018. The offense has been slow and methodical for both teams, and Tennessee is shooting just 43% on the season. the good news is the defense which has always been elite, especially at home is allowing just 37.8% shooting on home hardwood. SC is also shooting just 43% and allows 39%, so there will be some scoring droughts in this contest. Tennessee's defense continues to dominate home games as the Bols are now 60-30-2 to the under in their last 92 at Rocky Top. make the play on the under.

This game fits a very active and long-term total situation that is 391-274 ATS. The play is on the OVER.

Georgia Tech is the biggest under team at home in NCAAB. They are 92-47-1 to the under in their last 140 games at home. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 89-44-6 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 265-158 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under.

This game fits a tital situatyion that is 98-55-7 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 189-139 ATS and the play is on the under.