I really like the line value in this one. Columbia has played their last 10 games under at home, and have averaged just 58.2ppg in the process, if you discount Cornell who is not a typical IVY team. Cornell scores in the 70s or higher just about every game. Columbia has also allowed just 56.7ppg in the same time period. Columbia for all practical purposes is the new Princeton in the IVY league and have become the king of IVY Leaugue unders. The last 2 seasons they have not played a home game taht produced more than 132 points. This one stays under the total.

Looking at the standings in the IVY and seeing Dartmouth at 4-2 is certainly a surprise. Columbia enters at 3-3, and combined these teams will put just 2 double-digit scorers on the floor. If there is a new Princeton in the IVY League that noone ralizes it is Columbia, especially at home. The Lions have now played their last 10 home IVY games under, and overall when listed as a favorite, they have played 12 straight under. Dartmouth in the role of a dog has played to a 20-7 record in favor of the under. last year these two played twice, and were not able to top the 110 mark in either game. This one goes under the total.

When a team comes off a game where they are involved in a final score that shows 271 points on the board, it is difficult for the oddsmaker to not pump up the total in their next game. That is exactly the case for this one. What they have failed to take into account, is tonight's opponent. The Portland Trailblazrs have not had a game reach over this total on the road in a non OT game in their last 62 road games! That streak goes back to December of last year! Golden St. is a scoring team, but with that, only 11 of their 25 home games have topped this total. This one os inflated, and I'm playing under here.

I wanted to wait as long as possible for this pick, until the public bet the total up. It's a classic setup, the Knicks off a 271 point game vs Golden St., who plays many of those a season, and the Clippers off of 2 out of 3 where they score 125+. Let's look at the Clippers. This team played 2 games all season where the total points in their game has reached 221. The most recent reached 231 points. That game to score 231 points required the Clippers to shoot nearly 60% from the floor, hit 16 threepointers (16-29) 55.1%, and the game needing their opponent to shoot 50%, and all together 62 free throws attempted. All of that said, he game still reached just 231. The other was against Golden St., who has seen 22 of their games reach this total. This Clipper team outside of the back-to-back 120s games where they shot just about 60% in each, has not once scored over 108 this season with out OT in any other game. The oddsmakers are saying this game has a final score of 113-108 with a 221 total and Clippers by 5. If they are right it will only be the Clippers 3rd time all season reaching 113, and the 2 times they did reach it, they had to shoot 60%. Value is on the under here.

This total is simply set too high between these two teams. New Orleans has played 11 teams with a winning record at home this season, and not a single one has scored over 100. Boston has been on the road vs 9 teams with winning records, and none have gotten to 100. New Orleans has averaged allowing 88.5ppg in the 11, Boston allowing 86.8ppg in the 9. These teams have collectively played in this situation 17-3 to the under. The average of the 17 games that went under was by 15ppg! The 3 taht went over, were by 2,2, and 9 points. This one goes UNDER, and is my NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH!

The Phoenix Suns aren't quite as fast paced as they were under Mike D'Antoni, but still like to get up and down the floor. The problem is they have faced 9 teams on the road with a winning record on the season, and the total points scored reaching this level, has been passed just 1 time (Denver game was 206 before OT). The Suns have scored under 100 in just 13 games, but 10 of those were in games vs teams .500 or better, and their overall mark is 0-13 ATS when scoring under 100. The Sixers have become a much better team, and are 12-4 over their last 16. They have allowed 100 or more just 4 times in the 16 games, and 2 of those were 100, and 101. Ten of the 16 games have come at home where they are allowing just 91.5ppg. The last 16 home games the Sixers have played has seen the visitor top their season point average in just 1 of the 16!!! The other 15 games saw the opponent average 7.4 points less a game than they average! Phoenix averages 104.9ppg, and if Philadelphia does what the have averaged over the past 16, then Phoenix projects to 97.5 points here, something they have done just 1 time in their last 45 games, and barely, as they scored 116! I like this one to go under the total.

This is a Big east rivalry game, and these types of games have proven to be low scoring over the years, especially between these two. They have combined to average just 127.3ppg in their last 12 meetings, and we get a spike in the total from their earlier meeting that finished with 146 points scored. The 12 games have seen 19 of the 24 scores posted by these teams be in the 60s or less. There has yet to be a game in the last 12 meetings where both teams reached 70! The total is posted at 136.5 with Pitt as an 8 point favorite, so the oddsmakers are calling for a 72-64 game. The last 12 matchups have seen the 72 point mark reached just 3 times, while one team has finished in the 50s or lower 7 times. It is almost 3 times more likely we see a team in the 50s, than we do up to 72! I like this one to go under the posted total.

The Cleveland Cavs are 23-0 at home, and the main reason is, that only 2 teams have reached the century mark against them on thir court, and there has yet to be a team with a winning record to record 100 points this season in Cleveland. These teams played in LA, and the final total points were just 193. The chances are this one will be even more defensive, as the Lakers are winding down a 6 game road trip. This one will play under the total.

The Houston Rockets have always been considered a defense first team, and that is magnified at home, especially vs the teams that aren't big offensive units. The Rockets have played 10 teams this season on their home court, and not a single one of the 10 reached 200 points scored. These opponents have averaged just 84.5ppg! The Rockets on the otherhand have not been filling it up vs these teams either, as they have scored no more than 103 in any of the 10 games, and have averaged just 91.8ppg. It's easy to see that of the 10 games played 9 have gone under the total! The T-Wolves have played under to the tune of 8-3-1 in their last 12 when facing strong home teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This one goes under.

The Celtics success has been predicated on defense, and the Knicks has been via the offensive end, so something might have to give here tonight. The Knicks are a hot team right now, as they have covered 8 of their last 9, and have been over 100 points in all of them, averaging 110ppg during this stretch. The Celtics come here after an emotional OT loss to the Lakers and may be a little less intent on the defensive end here. The C's gave up 100+ in just 4 of 16, prior to their recent run of allowing 100+ at 4 of the last 6. Hot offense, vs a team off a high energy game, that may not bring it's best offense spells OVER.

The Boston Celtics have been a great team, since the addition of Garnett, and Allen to compliment Pierce, and the emergence of Rajon Rondo as a top PG. What makes them tough is all 4 are commited on the defensive end, and when they get in big games, the defense carries them. Last season the Celtics played in 11 home games against the best teams in the NBA, those with winning percentages above .600. They held these elite teams to an average of 92.2ppg. This season so far they have faced 5 of them, and the numbers are even better, as their record against teams with an over .600 winning percentage is 88.2ppg allowed. It is no wonder that the Celtics have played their last 8 vs teams with a winning percentage over .600 to the UNDER. The Lakers have scored 100+ in 21 of their last 23 games. The teams that stopped them? San Antonio and Boston. That is not shocking, as the high powered Laker offense has averaged just 97.6ppg vs the top 5 defenses this year! To put that in perspective the top 10 defenses has turned the #1 ranked offense into a #21 ranked offense!! They have played 4 games in Boston since the arrival of Garnett, and Allen, and have averaged just 94ppg. This one stays under the total.

The Detroit Pistons have been the most solid defensive team in the NBA for several years now, this year is no exception. Despite having to overcome low totals posted against them, the Pistons have played under more often than over in each of the last 6 seasons, and have by far been the king in the NBA holding opponents to under 80 points, having done it 43 times over the last 3+ seasons. Now they find themselves with a struggling offense, and the low totals are getting knocked down one after another. The Pistons have now gone 13-2 in their last 15 with a total posted of 186 or less, with one of the 2 losses coming by a single point. The Heat has played 7 times on the road vs defenses that rank in the top 10 in points allowed, and have averaged just 84.4ppg, and all 7 games have gone under the total! These teams have also played under to a record of 20-6-1 in their last 27 meetings. Under gets the call here.

The Lakers have the offense clicking, and that means a lot of points. They have averaged 114.3ppg in their 10 road games vs teams with losing records, but at the same time are allowing 107ppg. The Lakers fall under a huge catergory that has been money in the bank over the last several years. When a team beats the total to the over 3 straight games by 6 points or more playing in a non-conference game. These teams are 27-9 to the over, and 63% of the time have beaten the total by 7 points or more. The average total in these games has been set at 217, and the average points scored has been 226!!! Toronto has played over in 4 of their last 5 in the 2nd of back-to-back games. Over gets the call here

The pacers have begun to get treated by the oddsmakers in much the same way as Golden St., Denver, and Phoenix. They have scored 100+ in 19 of their last 21, but those numbers are a bit decieving. The last 10 Pacer games have played in regulation under this total. The T-Wolves have played just 8 of their last 43 over this number. The Pacers have played 16 games this season at home vs teams that are averaging under 100ppg, and 15 of the 16 have gone under this total, with the average points being scored at 205ppg. This one is simply set way too high, and I'm gong under here

The New Orleans Hornets have been a defensive powerhouse at home. The last 15 home games they have played, has seen them hold all 15 teams to under their season's scoring average. It isn't that they are holding teams just below their average, they have held these 15 teams to an average of 10.5ppg below their average! These 15 teams have combined to average 99.5ppg, but the Hornets have held them to 89.0ppg. The Trailblazers have been held to 86.2ppg on the road in their last 8 games vs teams that are .500 or better, a full 12.5ppg below their season average. This series has been rough, physical, and defensive over the last few years, as each of the last 6 games has gone under the total, and no game has seen more than 187 points scored in it. I like this one to go under.

This has become a heated rivalry game since the Cavs added LeBron and became competitive, It has been one of the most consistent defensive struggles in the NBA, and when these two get together, it is typically an ugly game. The last 23 times these teams have met the total is 22-1 to the under. It has been such a defensive battle that 17 of the 23 games have gone under by 10 points or more. Cleveland has not scored 100 points in 20 consecutive non OT games vs Detroit. The average total has been 183.7 and the average points scored between these two teams is just 168.3, or 15.5 points under the total on average. I like this one to go under the total.

here is another market inefficiency play. Theams that are matching up as two good offensive teams averaging between 98-102 points a game fit this description, especially when 1 is coming off a game where 175 points or less was scored (Portland). This situation has presented an average total of 194.8ppg, with the average score being 205ppg, and an overall record of 37-9 ATS to the OVER. The tota went over in this situation by 7 points or more 61% of the time. I will play this one over.

I write a lot of articles about market inefficiencies in sports wagering, and a lot of what I do is based on continued research, and updating circumstances, that the oddsmakers simply aren't onto. There is a situation here tonight, that shows a huge market inefficiency. It occurs when teams are off an embarassing home loss, where they failed to score 80 points. At the same time, their opponent is coming into the game off a big road loss of 10 points or more. These games have shown to go under 78.3% of the time, for an overall record of 36-10 since 1996. The average total the oddsmakers have set has been 184.6 in these games, while the average total points scored in these games has been 177.6. here is the safety test for this system. If you reduced the average total set by 7 points a game, you would still win the UNDER in 28 of the 46 games. So what you have here is a market inefficiency, where if the line was actually 7 points lower you still cover 61% of them. This is 1-0 this year, and 3-0 over the past 3 years. UNDER is the call here.

This is pure offense vs pure defense, and the oddsmakers are off by 7 points in this one. The Suns have manged 98ppg in their 8 home games vs teams in the top 10 in points allowed. They have also give up 98ppg, for an average of 192ppg scored by bith teams. The Spurs have faced 5 teams in the top 10 in points scored on the road this season, and have allowed 94ppg, while scoring 94ppg themselves. That is an average of 188ppg. Combined these teams in this situation show an expected outcome of 192 points scored. Value on the under. Supporting trends? San Antonio 41-20-1 under last 62 on the road. San Antonio 39-18-1 last 58 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. San Antonio 24-8-1 under as a dog last 33. This series has seen 6 of the last 7 also go under. UNDER gets the call here.

Both these teams find themselves in the top 10 offensively and defensively in the NBA. That is a rare occurance as going back to the 1997-98 NBA seasons, there haven't been many games between teams ranked in both the top 10 on offense, and defense in terms of points allowed and scored. I went back to the archives, and there have only been 22 such matchups. Those 22 games produced an average of 178ppg, which is 17.5 points below the total set in this one. Only 1 of the 22 games ended with a total points scored of over the total set here, and that was by 1.5 points. There was one other game that scored 202 points, but went under in regulation. So 20 of the 21 games did not top the total set here. Play this one UNDER.

The Knicks are a much better team when they score 100 points. They are 21-8 ATS when they reach the century mark. They have reached that total in 18 of 22 home games, so you can see the effectiveness of Mike D'Antoni's running game. They have also allowed opponents to reach the 100 mark in 14 of the 22 as well, so combined we are looking at 32 of 44 where either the Knicks or their opponent reached 100 at the Garden, or 73% of the time. Knicks have reached 100 in 5 straight, and the Hawks have faced teams in the top 10 in points per game on the road 6 times, allowing 107.7ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but when they play at home vs the sub-.500 teams, they lack the same intensity as they bring vs the good teams. The Celtics have allowed 99ppg vs teams with a losing record at the Garden in their last 9 games (counting Phila 21-22 as a .500 team). The offense has absolutely picked these teams apart, as they have averaged 116ppg. These 9 games have seen the over go 9-0, averaging 215 points a game to a posted average total of 197. They have played over the line by 18ppg. The Kings have allowed 121.4ppg in their last 8, while scoring 110 themselves for a ridiculous 231 points per game. Games against the other members of the over .700 club (winning percentage) Cleveland,LA Lakers,and Orlando, saw the Kings games average 222 points. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics have that defensive mantra going, and when they get in big games, the defense is what carries them. Since November 9th the Celtics have played 5 games on the road vs tams with winning records on the season. Those 5 games have seen the avrage total points scored of just 174 per game, with none going over 181. The Magic have played 8 games at home vs teams with a winning record on the season, and the average points scored has been 185.9. The Celtics have now played 12 of 14 under on the road vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage in their last 14, and 21 of 28 on the road under overall. Magic as a home favorite of 5-10.5 are 41-19-1 to the UNDER, and 4 of the last 5 between these teams played in Orlando have gone under. I'm playing the under here as I expect this one to be played in the 80s.

The San Antonio Spurs have played 227 home games over the last 5 and a half years, and only 19 of them have exceeded this total. That is 8.3% of all games. Many are going to point out the Pacers scoring 100 and allowing 100 in 14 straight games. They had a sequence of games vs all the top offenses in the league. They have played a total of 15 games vs the NBA's top 10 in points allowed per game, and have reached 100+ in just 5 of them, and on the road they have reached that number just 2 times (all stats not including OT), one of the road games was exactly 100. They have averaged just 94.3ppg on the road vs the top 10 defenses in points allowed. They have only averaged 98ppg at home against these teams. This one goes under the total.

The Phoenix Suns are back to their run and gun style. After scoring 100+ in just 10 of their first 20 games, they have now reached the century mark in 10 straight, and 17 of their last 18. They have also allowed 100+ in 20 of their last 23 games. The Celtics, who have awakened from a deep slump that saw them go just 2-7 after a 27-2 start, have now scored 113ppg over their last 3. It is unlikely they get any resistance from the Suns here, that simply don't play defense. I'll play this one to go over the total.

The Knicks, and coach Mike D'Antoni have tried to bring the Suns running game to New York, but unless you have the personnel to pull it off, it simply doesn't work. The Knicks have been playing to inflated totals all season, and have now played under in 9 of their last 10, and 17 of their last 23. They have only reached 210 total points in their games 7 times in their last 24. The Bulls highest output over their last 11 games has been 102, and vs teams with losing records, 15 of their 19 games have featured less points scored than the posted total here. These teams have played under in 6 of their last 8 meetings, and I look for another under in this one.

The Toronto Raptors certainly aren't a high scoring team, but when they have matched up against the NBA's top 10 offenses their games have taken on the personality of the opponent as in those 14 games 11 have gone over the total. If you exclude the defenisve minded Celtics, where they have split 2 overs, and 2 unders, they are 11-1 to the over, with 8 of the 11 toppling the over by 11.5 points or more! The home games have seen 4 of the 6 played against top 10 offenses exceed the posted total by 20.5 points or more. The Suns have averaged 104.5ppg, but in their last 17, they have topped the century mark in 16, and are averaging 110ppg!!! Not only that they have now allowed 100+ in 19 of their last 22. The average allowed is 106.5ppg. This one goes over the total.