The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet, and this game also fits a 34-10 O/U situation. Make the play on the over.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

These teams played some high scoring games during the regular season, as they combined to average 213 points per game. Now we take a look at the odds maker and he says this game will come up well short of that number, in fact almost 10 points short. That sure makes it enticing to give a strong look to the over, but the fact is, these are the playoffs. last year the NBA had an average total of 200.1ppg and the playoffs average total was 201.3ppg. Surprisingly higher. So why then are the odds makers dropping this one nearly a full 10 points from regular season results? For starters Boston's road totals vs .550 teams or better show 203ppg. Atlanta at home vs .550 or better teams have seen 200ppg scored. I see some line value here. The Hawks are also 23-5 to the under since 2008 in a playoff game at home vs a team better than .550. This game also fits a situation which is 211-143 to the under, including 19-12 in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors are one of just six teams that held opponents to less than 100ppg this season, and the Pacers were not far behind allowing 100.5ppg. The Pacers offense has struggled on the road down the stretch, failing to score 100 points in any of their last 3 road games, and averaging less than 100 on the road in their last 12 on the road. The fact is, the Pacers have the lowest scoring average of any NBA team when it comes to the playoffs where they average 87.3ppg in their last 37 playoff games, on the road, and have allowed jut 92.1ppg. This game also fits a playoff situation which is 55-34 to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 89-50 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which fits a situation which is 214-145 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 93-53  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 140-94  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-85  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 59-24  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 24-0-1  ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 60-23 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 211-139 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 192-146 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 124-82 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 41-11 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 92-53 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-43 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-32 ATS, and the pay is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 51-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 139-94 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The NIT, which many refer to "Not In Tournament", will crown a Champion tonight. The oddity here is the fact that not since the 1987-88 season, or 29 years ago, did the NIT Final not include a power conference team. That streak ends tonight as Valparaiso takes on George Washington. The fact is, only 4 teams from a non-power conference have won the NIT over the 29 year period, but after tonight, that will become 5. Valparaiso is all about the half-court, and using the shot clock. That style seems to be personified when tackling a very competent opponent. The Crusaders allow just 59.2ppg against teams that were better than .700 on their schedule this season, scoring just 64.7ppg themselves. These teams have both defended very well, and one reason they are not in the NCAA Tournament is they did not shoot well under pressure to get there, and with the magnitude looming large in the championship game, expect this game to fall short of the total. None of the last 5 NIT Championship games have seen more than 130 total points scored, even with last year's overtime contest. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 41-12 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 175-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-31 ATS and the play is on the under.

The break from the NCAA Tourney allows the NIT to take center stage tonight at Madison Square Garden. A game of interest for me is George Washington vs San Diego St. The Aztecs under Steve Fisher have been a defensive clinic the last several years, and even better this season. The Aztecs led all teams in lowest FG%age shooting by their opponent at 37.1%. They defend the entire court, and in their 3 NIT games have not allowed anyone to connect on 40% shooting or better than 28% from deep. The problem for San Diego is the offense. The Aztecs were decent at home where they averaged 71.1ppg, but on neutral courts this year, their 6 games saw them average 61.8ppg. George Washington is a very thin team, and just 6 players get significant minutes in games. San Diego St. is 55-31 to the under over the last 3 years, and with a new shooting background, nerves, and defense at its best, make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 67-29 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 180-113 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 55-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Syracuse Orange were squarely on the bubble, and the selection committee voted them into the Big Dance. they have certainly taken advantage of the situation, as they have gotten to the Elite 8, and are 1 win away from the Final Four. Virginia has had another great season, and it has been led by a defense that is very stingy. Syracuse is also a very good defense, and in the NCAA Tournament. The advantage in the NCAA Tournament is clear for Syracuse who since 2009, covering 6 NCAA Tournaments and 19 games, the Cuse has allowed just 57.0ppg! these teams have met twice over the last 2 years with 1 game scoring 138 points the other 106. The fact of the 2 games however is worth looking at. The game that saw 138 total points scored saw less than 100 shots taken in total, but the 21-48 mark from deep at 43.8%, and almost half of all shots is not likely to occur again. The 106 point game saw less than 100 shots, and just 12 made 3's. The total here is set too high. Make the play on the under.

The Philadelphia 76ers have a storied and successful history as a franchise, but none of that has been achieved lately. They have not won 50 games in a season since 2002, and their last 3 make it tough to be a Sixer's fan, as they have compiled a woeful 46-190 SU record, with just 9 of the wins coming this season. The biggest problem in an era where NBA scoring is way up the Sixers score just 96.2ppg on the road. I think the total is way over done here, as it is the highest total the Sixers will have played to on the road since March 14th of the 2013 season! History also is on their side as this game fits a totals situation that has seen the under play out to a 72-31 mark, including a stellar 11-2 mark this season. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game features a pair of teams that were squarely on the bubble, and both were selected for the tournament. They have both arrived at the Sweet 16, ensuring a double-digit seed advances to the Elite 8. There is hidden value on the total here, as Syracuse, as most know by now plays a zone for the entire game. The Syracuse zone is certainly more solvable vs conference teams that see it all the time, but not so much for a team that does not see it, and is used to going against a man-to-man defense. The advantage in the NCAA Tournament is clear for Syracuse who since 2009, covering 6 NCAA Tournaments and 18 games, the Cuse has allowed just 56.9ppg! Consider that the top 17 games on the Gonzaga schedule this year played 12-5 to the under, and this toal looks to be over done. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 180-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 72-31 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game is going to be about imposing will on the other, as the styles are sharply contrasted here. Virginia is dynamic on defense, and likes the half-court, while Iowa St. likes to get up and down and put up a lot of shots quickly. The Cavs allow just 59.5ppg on the season, and have had a pair of games vs Duke and NC allowing 61 and 63 points. perhaps the clearest indication if Iowa St. can be slowed down came in their 2 games vs Oklahoma St. who plays a similar half-court offense. The Cyclones managed just 58 and 64 points in the two games, averaging just 55 shots per game. This season when a team that has allowed less than 60ppg has faced a team averaging 80 or more the under has been 42-31 ATS. (42-28 ATS 60% when the total is 134 or more). Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 137-93 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 97-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

The Philadelphia 76ers have benefitted by their poor performances the last 2 years to be drafting in the lottery position of the 1st round. Despite all that, they are going backward at 9-62 on the season. That brings their record to 46-189 since the start of the 2013 season, with no end to the losing in sight. The Nuggets won 59 games 4 years ago, but have not made the playoffs since, and are struggling in their own rite. These teams both have key contributors missing tonight, with Gallinari sitting for the Nuggets and Okafor for the 76ers. That should make offense a bit tougher, and the fact that both teams could be sniffing a rare win, the defensive intensity should be enough to hold the scoring down. Top that off with the fact that this game fits a situation that is 71-31 ATS to the under, and the total looks like a solid play. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 69-33, and the play is on the over.

The Spurs playing at home off a loss have been dialed in on defense, as they have allowed opponents just 85.6ppg in these games, and this game also fits a situation that is 885-748 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Magic has not been a good defensive team this season, but what they have done over their last 11 games is put a lot more effort into that end of the floor. The Magic have played 8 of their last 11 to the under, and I think the fact that Detroit has allowed 50% or better shooting in each of their last 3 will be better focused on the back end of the court tonight as well. This game also fits a situation that is 91-52  ATS to the under, and active tonight. Make the play on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

I think the intensity will be high here, and the scoring lower than expected, and in fact this game fits a situation that is 175-111 ATS to the under, and all things considered the total looks to be too high for this tilt. Make the play on the under.

The total here is also showing some value as both these teams are efficient on offense, and each likes to get up and down the floor. The Cougars average 87.1ppg on their home floor, and have topped the 90 point mark here 9 times already this season. Creighton will be a willing partner in a track meet. Make the play on the over.

Scoring is way up in the NBA this season, but that has not stopped the Miami defense. They are 1 of just 6 NBA teams that allow less than 100 points a game, as they are #4 in fewest points aloowed this season. The problem for the Heat is they also score less than 100ppg as they rank #23 in the NBA in that department. I trust teams that play defense to control the tempo of the game, as Miami prefers the half-court game, and their 40-29 record on the season compared to the .377 winning percentage of the Pelicans indicates they should be in control tonight. This game fits a situation that plays under the total to a 34-10 ATS mark when one of the teams has been playing over the total in 6 straight games or more, along with a couple other factors. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Boston Celtics after posting 14 straight wins at home, have now dropped their last 2 at the Garden. The dominating feature of their 14 game home winning streak was not the offense, it was a defense that held 7 of the 14 opponents to under 100 points, one of which was this Magic team that scored just 94. This might be the place to bring the defense again as the Magic have failed to top the 100 point mark in 4 of their last 5 road games, and overall have played 7 of their last 10 to the under. Boston may be helped by the fact thet this game fits a situation which is 70-21 ATS, including 9-2 ATS this year, that plays on certain teams to play a low scoring game. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 27-6 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 121-77 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 271-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 271-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 151-84, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 62-28 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 62-28 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 49-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Today will be the first time this late season NBA totals situation will have occurred. It kicks in at game 56. It follows the premise that no two teams know each other better than division rivals, and when you put together a pair of division rivals, that are both playoff caliber, the intensity rivals that of a playoff game. This is a very logical, and yet simple situation, one that kicks in late in the year, as we have a pair of teams jockeying for playoff position, as well as perhaps the division crown. Let's take a look at the parameters of this situation, which has a lot of plays:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Division game

3) Both teams are greater than .550

That gives us 121-183-6  O/U  or 60.2% winners on the under.

Tonight consider Miami and Charlotte to duel it out in a low scoring game, that fails to reach the total.

This game fits a situation which is 62-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 881-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 881-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 879-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game has an extremely high total, and I don't think New Orleans is not going to try and get into a track meet here against a Golden St. team that plays that game much better. Their best chance is in the half-court, and look for extended possessions by the Pelicans here. This game also fits a strong total under indicator, that has been 61-26 ATS in the last 20 years in the NBA, as it doesn't come up often, but when it does, it usually is very predictive. Make the play on the under.

I  like the under in this contest, as the last 6 meetings between these clubs have produced 1 game that has topped this total, and overall have averaged just a combined total of 211.5ppg. Minnesota has been in the 90s in their last 2 games, while winning one of them, and the Suns have failed to reach the century mark in 4 of their last 7. This game also fits a situation, based in part, on 2 bad teams, that is 44-18 to the under. Make the play on the under

The Knicks unlike a lot of NBA teams have scoring numbers that closely match up be it at home or away. The Knicks problem has been a struggling offense, one that averages less than 100ppg on the season, while the defense has been good enough to win. Lately the Knicks have become an under team at 1-7 O/U in their last 8. The Lakers are a team lacking any offensive firepower themselves, as they average less than 100ppg as well, and have also become an under team of late at 2-5 O/U in their last 7. This game presents a rare opportunity to both teams that think they can bag a win, so defense should play a stronger role in this game. Make the play on the under.

The Milwaukee Bucks appeared to be a team on the rise a year ago and made the playoffs, but have been disappointing this season as they have fallen off, in a tougher, and more competitive NBA East. The scoring is up in the league, but the Bucks offense hasn't kept pace and averages under 100ppg. Brooklyn, after a playoff appearance a year ago has fallen hard and fast and comes into this game at just 18-47 on the season, and their 97.6ppg is even worse than that of the Bucks. The Nets have failed to produce 100 points in a game 34 times on the season. The Bucks however have been even worse, producing less than the century mark 36 times. The Bucks have faced 14 teams on the season that were below .500 coming into the game, and are 3-11 O/U in the 14 games, with the total points scored at an average of just 187. nets 5-9 O/U vs less than .500 teams with scoring at 193ppg. Make the play on the under.

This is a big game in the sense that both these clubs are scrambling for playoff position, and are seperated by a scant 1.5 games in the standings, so I expect a playoff like atmosphere here with a lot of intensity on the defensive end. That has been the calling card for much of the season for the Atlanta Hawks who are 27-37-2 O/U on the year allowing less than 100 points a contest. The Hawks already appear to be in playoff mode, as scoring in their games has dropped dramatically in their last 9, with a combined average of 189.1ppg, limiting opponents to 91.1ppg, and 1-8 O/U. The Pacers have been 3-6 O/U in their last 9 road games, and with a lot riding on this game expect the defenses to prevail here. Make the play on the under.

This is a big game in the sense that both these clubs are scrambling for playoff position, and are seperated by a scant 1.5 games in the standings, so I expect a playoff like atmosphere here with a lot of intensity on the defensive end. That has been the calling card for much of the season for the Atlanta Hawks who are 27-37-2 O/U on the year allowing less than 100 points a contest. The Hawks already appear to be in playoff mode, as scoring in their games has dropped dramatically in their last 9, with a combined average of 189.1ppg, limiting opponents to 91.1ppg, and 1-8 O/U. The Pacers have been 3-6 O/U in their last 9 road games, and with a lot riding on this game expect the defenses to prevail here. Make the play on the under.

This looks to be the best matchup of the day, as the Cleveland Cavs head to LA to take on the Clippers. One thing that has held this LA Clipper's team back the past couple of years has been the lack of effort on the defensive end, but this team has grown up a lot allowing 98.8ppg, and have good recent marks, as they have held 6 of their last 14 opponents to under 40% shooting, and have been particularly strong on the defensive end of the court of late at home, allowing just 94ppg in their last 6. LA has been very strong at home in games vs teams over .600 (outside of Golden St.), as the other 9 teams have managed just 96.4ppg against them. Make the play on the under in this one.

This becomes a huge game for both teams, as the Memphis Tigers have played themselves to within 1 win of the NCAA Tournament, while Uconn, at 23-10, can`t afford to lose, as it would allow Memphis to steal a bid, and would also add a bad loss to the Uconn resume, leaving them perhaps a bit short of an at large bid. One thing about Memphis is when they are away from their home court, the speed of the game is quick, and the defense is not up to speed. The Tigers are 25-6 O/U in their last 31 games off their home court, when playing as a dog, with games averaging over 150 total points. Uconn loves the transition game, and should honor the up tempo pace here. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 57-17 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 80-44 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 873-751 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 31-3 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 873-751 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 67-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 134-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I mentioned in a recent newsletter how the scoring has gone up in the NBA over the last 5 years or so. Today in the newsletter we will look at a game with a very high total, the type of games that the over tending public usually ignores because it always looks intimidating and hard to beat. That isn't always the case, as we shall see below.

This tends to require a team playing well, winning their last game big, but at the same time, playing at a fast pace, or over-achieving offensively, or both. The defensive numbers, or lack thereof, is the key to this one, especially when we have an opponent that isn't very well rested. Let's take a look at the parameters:

1)  Total is 210 or higher

2)  Team won last game by 15 or more points

3) team also has allowed 100+ points in at least 4 straight games.

4)  Opponent is on 1 day of rest or less.

These teams have really played pinball machine games on the scoreboard, with the total results showing:

80-43-2 O/U  65% winners! 

These high totals sure have lived up to the billing!

Consider Boston/Houston over the total tonight.

This game fits a situation which is 877-737 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 290-189 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 65-28 ATS, and the play is on the under.

There is value in a substantially high total when a bad defensive team is coming off a big blowout loss. Today in the newsletter we will hone in on such teams, with an application on tonight's short NBA card. When you have a bad defensive team coming in off a huge blowout loss, the "fix" is not in, as they tend to go right back to their ole defense. the fact is the setting provided below shows that they allow over 108ppg in such situations. The problem however is we are dealing with totals of a substantial nature, those 209 points or higher, and while the "fix" may not be in, the odds makers have surely added a "fix" of their own, and these games struggle to get to the posted total, bad unfixed defense or not. Let's take a look at the parameters:

1)  Total is 209 or higher

2)  Team allows 103ppg or more on the season

3)  Team is off a loss of 20+ points.

That all steers one to the over, but the odds makers have taken notice, and most of the games simply don't get there, as the total is:

91-131-5 O/U  40.6%!  That means the under is 59.4% in these contests, as the odds makers pack on the points.

Consider the under in the Phoenix v Denver game on tonight's card.

This game fits a situation which is 50-15 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-15 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-15 ATS and the play is on the under.